--- author: New York Times Podcasts date: '2026-04-06' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNbRiDH_j-o speaker: New York Times Podcasts tags: - geopolitics - alliance-relations - energy-security - military-strategy - transatlantic-divide title: 特朗普的孤独战争：欧洲盟友为何不愿卷入伊朗冲突 summary: 本次访谈探讨了在美国总统**特朗普**对**伊朗**发动战争后，美国与其**欧洲**盟友之间日益紧张的关系。**欧洲**国家因对军事干预的怀疑、过往战争的创伤（**阿富汗**、**伊拉克**）以及经济考量，拒绝全面参与。**特朗普**施压并威胁退出**北约**或实施**关税**，但**欧洲**坚持其防御性立场。尽管关系紧张，双方都认为彻底决裂的代价过高，凸显了**欧洲**在经济和地缘政治挑战中对美国的持续依赖。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: geopolitics area: geopolitics project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: - NATO - OpenAI products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 美欧关系紧张：伊朗战争中的分歧 **Natalie Kitroof**: 大家好，我是《纽约时报》的**Natalie Kitroof**。这里是《The Daily》。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroof. This is The Daily.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 随着**伊朗**战争进入第六周，尽管**特朗普**总统不断发出战争即将结束的信号，但战斗丝毫没有减弱的迹象。**伊朗**继续向其海湾邻国发射导弹，**霍尔木兹海峡**仍然被封锁。就在这个周末，**伊朗**击落了一架美国战斗机后，美国军方不得不进行大规模行动，营救一名坠落的飞行员。与此同时，美国在**欧洲**最亲密的盟友继续拒绝**特朗普**的援助要求。今天，我的同事**Mark Landler**将解释为什么**欧洲**国家不愿参与这场战争，以及他们是如何被卷入其中的。今天是4月6日，星期一。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: As the war in Iran enters its sixth week, even as President Trump keeps signaling that it's about to end, the fighting shows no signs of letting up. Iran continues to fire missiles at its Gulf neighbors. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. And just this weekend, after Iran shot down a US fighter jet, the US military had to conduct a massive operation to rescue a downed airmen. All the while, America's closest allies in Europe continue to refuse Trump's demands for help. Today, my colleague Mark Landler explains why European countries want no part in this war and how they're getting dragged in anyway. It's Monday, April 6th.
**Natalie Kitroof**: **Mark**，在近代史上，美国首次在没有任何**欧洲**盟友加入的情况下参战。**特朗普**总统似乎对此非常愤怒，甚至强烈暗示他将再次退出**北约**，美国将撤出**北约**。显然，我们以前也见过这些威胁，跨大西洋关系紧张已经有一段时间了。那么，请你为我解释一下当前的情况。从1到10的等级来看，美国和我们的盟友之间的紧张关系有多糟糕？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Mark, for the first time in recent history, the US has gone to war without any of our European allies joining us. And it seems clear that President Trump is very mad at them because of this to the point where Trump is now strongly suggesting again that he's going to leave NATO that the US is going to pull out of NATO. Obviously, we've seen these threats before and we've seen the transatlantic relationship stressed for quite some time now. So, put this moment into context for me. On a scale of 1 to 10, how bad is the tension between the US and our allies right now?
**Mark Landler**: 嗯，**Natalie**，我可能会说是8或9级（满分10级），因为这种痛苦似乎非常深。我们正处于一个相当未知的领域，一位总统在几乎所有**欧洲**盟友都没有支持，甚至反对的情况下发动战争。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Well, Natalie, I'd be tempted to say eight or nine on a scale of 10 because the bitterness does seem to be running very deep. We're in fairly uncharted territory with a president waging war with no support and indeed growing opposition to it among virtually all his European allies.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 好的。我猜这真的始于美国最初没有告诉我们的盟友我们要对**伊朗**开战。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Okay. I assume this really starts with the US not telling our allies that we were about to go to war with Iran in the first place.
**Mark Landler**: 是的。但请记住，要追溯到更早的时候。你必须回顾**特朗普政府**第一年积累的所有创伤。**特朗普**总统上任时威胁要接管**格陵兰岛**，然后他对**欧洲**征收**关税**。所以在**伊朗**问题之前，**欧洲**方面就已经感觉到美国不再是盟友，甚至在某些方面开始表现得像一个掠食者。因此，当总统与**以色列**一起对**伊朗**开战，甚至没有咨询**欧洲**，甚至没有告诉他们袭击即将到来时，所有这些包袱都悬挂在两国关系之上。
Original English **Mark Landler**: It does. But remember to start, you really have to go even further back. You have to look at all the accumulated scar tissue of the first year of the Trump administration. President Trump came in threatening to take over Greenland. Then he imposed tariffs on Europe. So even before Iran, you had a sense on the European side that the United States was no longer an ally and indeed in some ways was beginning to behave like a predator. And so all of that baggage was hanging over the relationship when the president goes to war against Iran with Israel and does not even consult Europe, does not even tell them the attack is coming.
### 欧洲的谨慎回应 **Mark Landler**: 美国和**以色列**对**伊朗**发动了空袭。**特朗普**总统表示，目标是通过保护美国人民。
Original English **Mark Landler**: the United States and Israel have launched air strikes across Iran. President Trump says the objective is to defend the American people by
**Mark Landler**: 所以在2月28日早上，**欧洲**醒来时，看到美国和**以色列**正在对**伊朗**进行军事打击的新闻。
Original English **Mark Landler**: so on the morning of February 28th. Europe wakes up to the news that the US and Israel are carrying out military strikes on Iran.
**Mark Landler**: 今天的袭击可能会永远改变中东，并冒着**唐纳德·特朗普**曾誓言要结束的“永远战争”的风险。他们处于一场直接影响他们安全的冲突的边缘。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Today's attack could forever change the Middle East and risks a forever war of the kind Donald Trump had vowed to end. and they are on the sidelines of a conflict that has direct security implications for them,
**Natalie Kitroof**: 对吗？他们如何回应？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: right? And how do they respond?
**Mark Landler**: **法国**既未被告知也未参与，就像该地区所有其他国家和我们的盟友一样。
Original English **Mark Landler**: France was neither informed nor involved just like all the other countries in the region and our allies.
**Mark Landler**: 嗯，他们非常谨慎地回应。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Well, they respond very cautiously.
**Mark Landler**: 我们呼吁在使用武力时保持最大限度的克制，尊重平民生命，并寻求外交途径解决问题。首先，不直接批评总统。
Original English **Mark Landler**: We call for maximum restraint in the use of force, respect for the lives of civilians and the search for a diplomatic way out of this first of all by not criticizing the president in any direct way.
**Mark Landler**: **英国**在这些袭击中没有发挥任何作用。但我们早就明确表示，**伊朗**政权是极其可憎的。
Original English **Mark Landler**: The United Kingdom played no role in these strikes. But we have long been clear the regime in Iran is utterly abhorren.
**Mark Landler**: 即使他们承认这不是他们参与的行动。但无论如何，**特朗普**总统很快就开始向**欧洲**人寻求帮助。在某些方面，这很简单，比如给予他们使用**欧洲**领空的飞越权。有些则更复杂。美国确实请求使用**英国**基地来发动他们所谓的防御性打击，让美国使用**欧洲**土地上的军事基地。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Even as they acknowledge that this was not an operation they were involved in. But regardless of that, President Trump soon begins asking the Europeans for help. In some ways, it's easy stuff, giving them overflight rights to use European airspace. Some are more complicated. The United States did make a request to use British bases to launch strikes that they call defensive strikes, letting the United States use military bases on European soil.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 当**特朗普**开始提出这些要求时，我们的**欧洲**盟友做了什么？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: And what do our European allies do when Trump starts making those requests?
**Mark Landler**: 有些国家断然拒绝。**西班牙首相佩德罗·桑切斯**拒绝了美国使用其国家基地作为行动一部分的请求。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Some countries flat out refuse. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has denied US requests to use his country's bases as part of the operation.
**Mark Landler**: 有些国家更愿意谈判。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Some countries are more willing to negotiate.
**Mark Landler**: 我们现在不会加入进攻行动，但**伊朗**正在推行焦土战略。因此，我们正在支持我们的盟友和该地区人民的集体自卫。因为**欧洲**没有参与其中，他们愿意为防御和后勤行动提供帮助，但不会参与进攻性军事行动。这很快就成为他们需要平衡的复杂局面。
Original English **Mark Landler**: We will not join offensive action now, but Iran is pursuing a scorched earth strategy. So, we are supporting the collective self-defense of our allies and our people in the region. Because Europe is not involved in this, they're willing to offer help for defensive and logistical operations, but not for offensive military operations. And that quickly becomes a complicated balance for them to walk.
### 特朗普的黑白观与欧洲的抵抗 **Natalie Kitroof**: 那么**特朗普**如何看待这种只进行防御行动，不参与任何进攻行动的承诺呢？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: And so how does Trump see that that commitment to only do defensive actions but not to join up in anything offensive?
**Mark Landler**: **特朗普**对此持非常黑白分明的看法。如果你不在进攻方面帮助他，你就是在不帮助他。句号。所以**特朗普**认为**欧洲**没有挺身而出，没有支持**北约**盟友，他很快就对他们提出了批评。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Trump has a very black and white view of this. If you're not helping him on the offensive side, you're not helping him. Full stop. And so Trump's view is that Europe is not stepping up, is not backing a NATO ally, and he's pretty quick to level that criticism at them.
**Mark Landler**: 我们将切断与**西班牙**的所有贸易。我们不想与**西班牙**有任何瓜葛。
Original English **Mark Landler**: We're going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don't want anything to do with Spain.
**Mark Landler**: **特朗普**总统威胁要切断与**西班牙**的贸易关系。
Original English **Mark Landler**: President Trump threatens to cut off trade relations with Spain.
**Mark Landler**: 顺便说一句，我对**英国**也不满意。
Original English **Mark Landler**: By the way, I'm not happy with the UK either.
**Mark Landler**: **特朗普**说**英国首相基尔·斯塔默**不是“我们正在打交道的**温斯顿·丘吉尔**”。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Trump says that Prime Minister Kier Starmer of Britain is quote
**Mark Landler**: 不是**温斯顿·丘吉尔**，但**欧洲**国家以相对温和但具有象征意义的方式抵制**特朗普**。这当然进一步加剧了紧张关系。
Original English **Mark Landler**: No Winston Churchill, but European countries in in relatively modest but symbolically important ways stand up to Trump. And that of course just deepens the tension even further.
### 欧洲被卷入冲突的程度 **Natalie Kitroof**: **Mark**，我的感觉是，尽管**欧洲**划定了那条红线，但他们已经越来越多地被卷入这场冲突。你能描述一下他们到目前为止实际做了些什么吗？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: My sense Mark is that despite that red line that Europe draws, they have started to get pulled in more and more into this conflict. Can you just describe the extent of what they've actually done up until this point?
**Mark Landler**: 嗯，你说得对。**欧洲**确实几乎不可避免地被卷入其中，原因有几个。一是有些**欧洲**国家，特别是**英国**和**法国**，在该地区或附近有军事基地，其中一些基地不可避免地成为**伊朗**无人机或导弹的目标。所以**欧洲**在保卫自己的基地方面被卷入其中。他们也被卷入，因为**欧洲**国家与该地区的国家，如**科威特**、**阿联酋**，签订了安全协议。因此，**欧洲**飞机在**阿联酋**、**卡塔尔**、**科威特**等地上空飞行，帮助这些国家抵御**伊朗**的袭击。当然，**伊朗**还关闭了**霍尔木兹海峡**，这是世界上最具战略意义的水道之一，**欧洲**约五分之一的石油和天然气都通过这里。这让**欧洲**领导人陷入了极其困难的境地，因为**特朗普**随后要求**欧洲**人挺身而出，强行重新开放海峡，但**欧洲**人拒绝了。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Well, you're right. Europe does get drawn in uh almost inevitably for a couple of reasons. One is that some European countries, Britain and France notably, have military bases in the region or near the region and some of those bases are inevitably targeted by Iranian drones or Iranian missiles. So Europe is drawn in in terms of defending its own bases. It's also drawn in because European countries have security agreements with countries in the region, with Kuwait, with the UAE. And so European planes are in the air over places like the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, helping defend those countries from Iranian attacks. And then of course Iran shuts down the straight of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategic waterways and the place through which about a fifth of Europe's oil and gas flows and puts Europe's leaders in an incredibly difficult position because then Trump asks the Europeans to step up and forcibly reopen it and the Europeans refuse.
### 特朗普对北约和盟友的嘲讽 **Mark Landler**: 之后，事情变得更加动荡。在一次演讲中，**特朗普**特别抨击了**北约**。
Original English **Mark Landler**: After that, things start getting even more turbulent. In a speech, Trump lashes out specifically at NATO.
**Mark Landler**: 他们是纸老虎，但我们不需要他们，但我还是问了。
Original English **Mark Landler**: They're a paper tiger, but uh so we didn't need them, but I I asked anyway.
**Mark Landler**: 他说他甚至不需要他们的帮助。
Original English **Mark Landler**: He says he doesn't even need their help.
**Mark Landler**: 我们拥有的是，我们真的不需要更多了。能得到会很好，但我们不需要。嗯，我们对**欧洲**和所有这些国家说，你们知道，**中国**。
Original English **Mark Landler**: We have is we really don't need any more. Be nice to take it, but we don't need it. Um and we say to Europe and all these countries that do, you know, China
**Mark Landler**: 而且美国不需要更多的石油了。所以**霍尔木兹海峡**不再是他的问题。
Original English **Mark Landler**: and that the US doesn't need any more oil. So the straight of Hermuz is no longer his problem.
**Mark Landler**: 所以让他们去做吧。让**法国**去做吧。他们从海峡得到很多石油。让**欧洲**国家去做吧。
Original English **Mark Landler**: So let them do it. Let France do it. They get a lot of oil from the straight. Let the European countries do it.
**Mark Landler**: 他告诉盟友去自己弄石油。事情真的达到了高潮。他们打电话给**法国**的**马克龙**。
Original English **Mark Landler**: He's telling the allies to go get your own oil. And uh things really reach a kind of crescendo. They call up France macaron
**Mark Landler**: **特朗普**和**法国**总统**马克龙**之间的这种针锋相对，**马克龙**的妻子对他非常不好，他还在从下巴的打击中恢复。
Original English **Mark Landler**: with this tit fortat between Trump and President Mcron of France whose wife treats him extremely badly and still recovering from the right to the jaw.
**Mark Landler**: 你看到**特朗普**总统嘲笑**马克龙**和他妻子之间的一件事。
Original English **Mark Landler**: You saw President Trump making fun of an incident involving Macron and his wife.
**Mark Landler**: 哦，哇。他甚至模仿**马克龙**的口音，描述他们关于**法国**支持**伊朗**行动的对话。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Oh wow. He even imitates Macron's accent when describing their conversation about the French supporting the efforts in Iran.
**Mark Landler**: 不，不，不。不能那样做。**唐**，我们可以在战争胜利后那样做。
Original English **Mark Landler**: No, no, no. Cannot do that. Don, we can we can do that after the war is won.
**Mark Landler**: **马克龙**反击。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Macron strikes back.
**Mark Landler**: 你提到的那些言论既不优雅也不恰当。
Original English **Mark Landler**: The remarks I heard that you're referring to are neither elegant nor appropriate.
**Mark Landler**: 所以，我不会回应他们。他们不值得回应。
Original English **Mark Landler**: So, I'm not going to respond to them. They don't deserve a response.
**Mark Landler**: 通过质疑在战时使用那种语言的价值，也质疑**特朗普**作为战时领导人。
Original English **Mark Landler**: by questioning both the worthiness of using that kind of language during wartime but also questioning Trump as a wartime leader.
**Mark Landler**: 所以我们必须认真。当我们想认真的时候，我们不会每天都说与前一天相反的话，也许我们不应该每天都说话。
Original English **Mark Landler**: So we have to be serious. When we want to be serious, we don't say the opposite of what we said the day before every day and maybe we shouldn't talk every day.
### 特朗普要求欧洲介入的理由 **Natalie Kitroof**: 好的。所以现在每个人都越来越沮丧。**特朗普**要求我们的**欧洲**盟友参与其中的理由究竟是什么？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Okay. So everyone is increasingly frustrated with each other at this point. What exactly has Trump's argument been for the reason that our European allies should be involved in this?
**Mark Landler**: 嗯，你可以归结为两点。一是**伊朗**获得**核武器**的威胁对**欧洲**来说，就像对**以色列**或美国一样迫在眉睫。但除此之外，他说**欧洲**处于**伊朗弹道导弹**的射程之内。现在，这是一个有点争议的说法，但**欧洲**确实比美国离**伊朗**近数千英里。所以，理论上，**欧洲**的首都，**柏林**、**巴黎**、**伦敦**，即使现在不在，最终也可能在**伊朗**导弹的射程之内。所以，总统对**欧洲**领导人说的是：“别自欺欺人了。**核威胁**对你们来说和对我们一样危险。而**导弹威胁**对你们来说比对我们更严重。”
Original English **Mark Landler**: Well, you can boil it down to sort of two. One is the threat of Iran getting a nuclear weapon is every bit as imminent a threat to Europe as it is to Israel or the United States. But beyond that, Europe, he says, lies within range of Iran's ballistic missiles. Now, that's a somewhat debatable proposition, but it is true that Europe is thousands of miles closer to Iran than the United States. So, theoretically, European capitals, Berlin, Paris, London, could eventually, if not already, be within range of Iranian missiles. So, what the president is saying to European leaders is, "Don't kid yourselves. The nuclear threat is as big a danger for you as it is for us. And the missile threat is a bigger deal for you than it is for us.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 明白了。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Got it.
**Mark Landler**: 甚至除此之外，**唐纳德·特朗普**提出了一个更简单的论点。朋友帮助朋友。这些国家都是**北约**成员。**北约**联盟的核心原则之一体现在**第五条**中，该条规定，如果联盟的任何成员受到攻击，联盟的其他成员将挺身而出保卫它。这原则上是**唐纳德·特朗普**在这里援引的。当然，**欧洲**领导人对他说的是，在这种情况下，美国没有受到攻击。这不是一个援引**第五条**的案例。那么，这是他们不加入美国和**伊朗**战争的主要原因吗？因为美国没有受到攻击，而是首先发起了攻击？
Original English **Mark Landler**: And even beyond that, Donald Trump's making an even more simple argument. Friends help friends. These countries are all members of NATO. One of the core principles of the NATO alliance is enshrined in article 5 which says that if any member of the alliance comes under attack, the other members of the alliance will step up to defend it. This is in principle what Donald Trump is invoking here. Of course, what European leaders are saying to him is the US wasn't attacked in this case. This is not a case that invokes article 5. So, is that the main reason why they're not joining the US and Iran because the US wasn't attacked but launched the attacks first?
### 欧洲对军事干预的怀疑 **Mark Landler**: 我认为**欧洲**人有很多问题，但最基本的问题之一是，他们对军事打击能否解决总统所说的那些问题深感怀疑。特别是在**核问题**上，总统没有提出令人信服的论点，证明一场全面的军事行动能够实现根除**核计划**的目标。他们指出，这些已经被摧毁的**伊朗**设施下方的**高浓缩铀**将很难获取。**伊朗**的**核计划**已经因美国和**以色列**之前的打击而受损。因此，发动一场全面战争的想法对他们来说似乎并不具有说服力。
Original English **Mark Landler**: I think the Europeans have a number of issues, but one of the most basic is that there's a deep skepticism that military strikes are going to solve the problems that the president says they're going to solve. Specifically on the nuclear issue, the president has not made a compelling and convincing argument that a fullcale military campaign is going to accomplish the goal of eradicating the nuclear program. They point out that the highlyenriched uranium that lies under these already destroyed Iranian facilities is going to be very hard to get at. that Iran's already been crippled in its nuclear program by previous strikes led by the United States and Israel. And so the idea of starting a full-blown war just doesn't seem persuasive to them.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 听起来他们基本上不同意战争背后的战略或其正当性。他们不愿参与的另一个原因仅仅是他们正在审视**霍尔木兹海峡**的局势，并评估他们实际上可能无法做太多来帮助重新开放它吗？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: It sounds like they're essentially not agreeing with the strategy behind the war or the justification for it. is another reason for their reluctance just that they're looking at the situation in the straight of Hormuz and assessing that there actually may be very little that they can do to help reopen it.
**Mark Landler**: 是的，这是一个非常重要的问题。**德国**有点像在问，我们能做些什么，是美国做不到的，对吗？其他**欧洲**领导人也一再表示，很难在冲突期间在**霍尔木兹海峡**找到一个解决方案，这个方案不会仅仅让我们的船只和我们的军人处于危险之中，并且不一定能解决问题。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Yeah, that's a very important point. Germany sort of asked what is it that we can do that the United States can't do, right? and other European leaders have repeatedly said it's difficult to see a solution in the straight of Hormuz during the conflict that does not simply put our ships and our service people at risk and doesn't necessarily solve the problem
**Natalie Kitroof**: **Mark**，那是真的吗？他们实际上能做些什么？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: and is that true Mark like what could they do actually
**Mark Landler**: 嗯，**欧洲**有几项能力。一是扫雷领域，他们确实有扫雷舰。关于**伊朗**是否真的在**霍尔木兹海峡**布雷，存在着非常健康的争论。但如果有证据表明他们布雷了，**欧洲**人可以派遣扫雷舰。**欧洲**人还可以派遣护卫舰护送油轮通过海峡。这是**欧洲**海军拥有的能力。问题是，如果你在冲突期间这样做，那些护卫舰将成为**伊朗**无人机和短程导弹以及各种来袭火力的目标。所以我认为**欧洲**领导人坚决反对在冲突激烈时这样做。他们可能会在冲突结束后考虑这样做，作为增强航运公司信心的一种方式。就在上周，**法国**实际上有一艘船通过了海峡。我们不知道具体是如何发生的，但这表明可能还有其他方法，比如与**伊朗**达成协议，这当然会进一步激怒**特朗普**总统。
Original English **Mark Landler**: well Europe has a couple of um competencies one is uh in the area of clearing mines they do have mine sweeping ships there is a a very healthy debate about whether Iran has actually laid mines in the straight of Hormuz. But if there was evidence they had, the Europeans could send mine sweepers. The Europeans could also send frigots to escort oil uh tankers through the straight. That is something that European navies have. The problem with that is if you're doing it during the conflict, those frigots would be targets for Iranian drones and short-range missiles and all kinds of incoming fire. And so I think European leaders are dead set against doing that while the conflict is raging. They might be open to doing it after the conflict as a way of bolstering the confidence of the shipping companies. Just this past week, France actually got a ship through the straight. We don't know exactly how it happened, but it suggests that there are possible other methods like cutting deals with Iran, which of course would further antagonize President Trump.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 所以基本上，**欧洲**人可以做些什么，但他们的选择有限，而且有点危险。而且总的来说，他们似乎对介入解决一个他们认为无法解决的问题，然后可能被拖入一场没有明确结局的冲突感到非常不安。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: So basically, the Europeans could do something, but the options they have are limited and sort of fraught. And it generally seems as though they are pretty uneasy about jumping in to solve a problem they don't actually think can be solved. and then possibly being dragged into a conflict with no clear end.
### 历史的教训：阿富汗与伊拉克 **Mark Landler**: 是的，没错。我的意思是，对他们来说，他们看到了各种下行风险，而上行收益却很少，甚至没有。而且请记住，这背后有很多历史。具体来说，有两场战争悬而未决。第一场是**阿富汗**战争，这场战争始于**9/11**袭击美国之后，当时**北约**确实团结起来保卫美国，对吗？
Original English **Mark Landler**: Yeah, that's right. I mean, for them, they see all kinds of downside risk for very little, if any, upside benefit. And remember, there's a lot of history hanging over this. Specifically, there are two wars hanging over it. The first was in Afghanistan, a war that began after the 9/11 attacks on the US when NATO did rally to the defense of the United States, right?
**Mark Landler**: **欧洲**军队与美国人并肩在**阿富汗**作战，这当然变成了一场长达二十年的残酷冲突，最终以**塔利班**重新夺回国家告终。在某些方面，它就是关于国家建设所有困难的百科全书。
Original English **Mark Landler**: European troops fought alongside the Americans in Afghanistan, which of course turned out to be a grinding two decadel long conflict that ended with the Taliban recapturing the country. was in some ways an encyclopedia of everything that is hard about nation building
**Mark Landler**: 在**伊拉克**，情况则非常不同。那是一场选择之战，而不是必要之战，而且没有得到普遍支持。请记住，**英国**支持了它，但**德国**和**法国**都避开了它，认为当时的总统**乔治·W·布什**没有提出令人信服的理由，证明全面军事入侵是唯一的最佳选择。**伊拉克**多年来一直是**欧洲**的创伤之源。一场漫长而艰难的冲突，带来了各种附带影响，结局非常不尽人意。
Original English **Mark Landler**: in Iraq which was very different. That was a war of choice rather than a war of necessity and it was not supported universally. Remember Britain supported it but Germany and France uh both steered clear of it believing that the president at the time George W. Bush had not made a compelling case that a full-scale military invasion was the only and best option in this case. And Iraq has really been a source of trauma in Europe for many years. A lengthy, difficult conflict with all kinds of collateral effects that ended very unsatisfactorily.
**Mark Landler**: 在支持战争的**英国**，它非常不受欢迎，以至于严重损害了**托尼·布莱尔**首相的政治遗产，并导致了多年的相互指责。所以当这些政治领导人看待**伊朗**时，他们很大程度上是通过**伊拉克**的视角以及他们对那场战争的所有糟糕记忆来看待的。
Original English **Mark Landler**: in Britain which supported the war. It was so unpopular that it really poisoned the legacy of Prime Minister Tony Blair and caused years of recrimination. So as these political leaders look at Iran, they are looking at it very much through the lens of Iraq and all the bad memories they have of that war.
### 能源危机与政治影响 **Natalie Kitroof**: 好的。鉴于这段历史，**欧洲**人不愿参与这场战争，并尽可能抵制任何将他们卷入其中的努力，即使地面情况越来越糟，也是有道理的。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Okay. So given that history, it makes sense why the Europeans don't want to be in this war and why they would resist as much as possible any effort to pull them in even as things get worse and worse on the ground.
**Mark Landler**: 是的，确实如此。但正如你所说，情况越来越糟。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Yeah, it certainly does. But as you say, the situation is getting worse and worse.
**Mark Landler**: **欧洲**已经深陷**能源危机**，现在正面临取暖油和汽油价格飙升。这开始渗透到所有这些国家的政治体系中。因此，无论**欧洲**是否愿意，危机已经降临到家门口。它能否避免战争已不再清楚。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Europe, which was already in the grip of an energy crisis, is now facing skyrocketing prices for heating oil, for gasoline. It's beginning to bleed into the political systems in all these countries. And so the crisis, whether Europe wants it or not, has arrived at its doorstep. And whether it can avoid the war is no longer clear.
**Mark Landler**: 我们马上回来。
Original English **Mark Landler**: We'll be right back.
**Natalie Kitroof**: **Mark**，尽管对**欧洲**来说可能不公平，尽管他们多么想置身事外，但战争已经影响了全球经济，正如你所说，**欧洲**严重依赖通过海峡的石油。所以，无论他们喜欢与否，他们都被牵连其中。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Mark, as unfair as it may seem to Europe, as much as they want to stay out of it, the war has affected the global economy, as you said, and Europe does depend heavily on the oil coming through the straight. So, they're implicated whether they like it or not.
**Mark Landler**: 是的，他们确实如此。这其中存在不公。如果你愿意的话。他们不想与这场战争有任何瓜葛。他们没有被咨询过。他们对此深感保留。然而，他们无法完全置身事外，因为它也变成了他们的战争。在整个**欧洲**，你看到了各种各样的困境迹象。在**德国**，一加仑柴油现在超过9美元。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Yeah, they are. There is an injustice in this. if you like. They didn't want to have anything to do with this war. They weren't consulted on it. They have deep reservations about it. And yet they can't stay out of it altogether because it has become their war as well. Across Europe, you see all kinds of signs of distress. In Germany, a gallon of diesel fuel is now over $9.
**Mark Landler**: 天然气价格飙升。在**英国**，你看到各种潜在的政治动荡。政府开始讨论非常昂贵的救助计划。政府的财政计划被颠覆，因为突然需要支付巨额款项来弥补这些能源短缺。所以，在整个大陆，你看到的是一种涟漪效应，战争改变了一切。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Natural gas prices have skyrocketed. In Britain, you're seeing all kinds of potential political upheaval. Governments are beginning to talk about very costly bailout problems. Government's fiscal plans are being upended because suddenly there are these huge payments being demanded to cover these energy shortfalls. So across the continent, you just see a ripple effect where the war has changed everything.
### 对美国的依赖与国内政治 **Natalie Kitroof**: 好的。所以正如你所指出的，在完全不想参与和因这场战争而遭受真实痛苦之间，存在着真正的紧张关系。我还可以想象，除此之外，**欧洲**依赖美国来保障他们的安全，激怒**特朗普**是有风险的，对吗？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Okay. So there is, as you're noting, a real tension between not wanting to be involved at all, but also experiencing very real pain as a result of this war. I can also imagine that on top of all of that, Europe relies on the US for their security and there is a risk in pissing Trump off, right?
**Mark Landler**: 确实如此。事实上，每个**欧洲**领导人心中都有一个联系，那就是这场冲突与**乌克兰**之间的联系。如果你在**伊朗**问题上过度激怒**特朗普**总统，他可能会撤回美国对**乌克兰**的支持。这当然是**欧洲**人直接的安全关切。因此，**欧洲**对美国存在真正的依赖感，并且非常不愿严重疏远总统，以至于他会在其他领域发飙。
Original English **Mark Landler**: There is indeed. And in fact, one of the linkages that has been in the mind of every European leader is between this conflict and Ukraine. If you antagonize President Trump too much on Iran, he might pull American support from Ukraine. And that is of course a direct security concern for the Europeans. So there is a real sense of reliance on the part of Europe on the United States and a real reluctance to alienate the president so badly that he lashes out in other areas
**Natalie Kitroof**: 例如**关税**，对吗？我的意思是，我们过去看到**特朗普**用**关税**惩罚过一些国家，但我实际上想知道，**Mark**，我们的**欧洲**盟友是否变得更有胆量对抗**特朗普**，也许比过去更有胆量，因为**最高法院**最近裁定很多**关税**是非法的。你认为这是一个因素吗？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: for example with tariffs right I mean we've seen in the past that Trump has punished countries with tariffs but I'm actually wondering Mark if our European allies have become a little more emboldened to stand up to Trump than maybe they would have been in the past because the Supreme Court recently ruled that a lot of those tariffs were illegal. Do you think that was a factor here?
**Mark Landler**: 我同意。我认为总统有两个筹码。一个是**乌克兰**，另一个是通过**关税**的经济手段。**欧洲**人曾拼命想避免最糟糕的**关税**。现在，**最高法院**为他们做了一些工作。这并不意味着不会有任何**关税**，但**白宫**正在重新考虑如何征收**关税**，他们将使用什么权力，这使得情况更加模糊，但也增加了**欧洲**不会面临那种特定杠杆的可能性，我认为这让他们对总统感到有些大胆。
Original English **Mark Landler**: I do. I think that the president had two levers. One was Ukraine and the other was economic through tariffs and the Europeans were desperate to head off the worst of the tariffs. Well, now the Supreme Court has done a bit of their work for them. Doesn't mean there won't be any tariffs, but the White House is back to the drawing board on how they're going to impose tariffs. what authorities they're going to use and it has left the situation much more murky but also raised the prospect that Europe is not going to face that particular form of leverage and it is something that I think is causing them to feel somewhat bolder toward the president.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 那么这些**欧洲**领导人的国内政治情况如何？这些具体的政治家如何处理参与或不参与的潜在后果？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: And what about the domestic politics of this for these European leaders? How are these specific politicians dealing with the potential fallout of both getting involved or not getting involved at home?
**Mark Landler**: 嗯，这很有趣，而且根据政治家所属的政党而有所不同。在**意大利**，极右翼政党领袖**乔治亚·梅洛尼**实际上已经建立了一种“**特朗普**耳语者”的声誉。她被视为**特朗普**信任、可以与**特朗普**对话的人。但她在**特朗普**非常不受欢迎的国家执政。事实上，在过去几周，政府输掉了一次司法改革公投。他们可能输掉这次投票的原因之一是公众对**伊朗**战争的反弹。这使得**梅洛尼**处于非常困难的境地。另一方面，在**英国**，你有一位工党首相**基尔·斯塔默**。他非常努力地与**特朗普**总统建立尊重的关系。正如我们之前讨论的，这并没有让他免受**特朗普**总统的侮辱。但在**英国**，这实际上对**斯塔默**有利，因为他能够展示他的独立性，并以一种受**英国**许多不喜欢**特朗普**的选民欢迎的方式对抗总统。所以，在不同的国家情况不同，但在所有这些国家，领导人都在走同样的艰难平衡，那就是我们如何才能置身于公众不喜欢或不支持的战争之外，但我们如何才能看起来正在尽一切努力防止**能源危机**吞噬我们的经济？
Original English **Mark Landler**: Well, it's interesting and it differs depending on what party the politicians are from. In Italy, Georgia Maloney, who is the leader of a far-right party, has actually kind of developed a reputation as a Trump whisperer. She's viewed as someone who Trump trusts, who can talk to Trump. But she governs in a country where Trump is very unpopular. And in fact, in the last couple of weeks, the government lost a judicial reform referendum. And one of the reasons that they may have lost this vote is because of a public backlash on the war in Iran. So this has put Maloney in a very difficult position. In Britain, on the other hand, you have a Labor Prime Minister, Kirst. He's worked very hard to cultivate a respectful relationship with President Trump. As we discussed earlier, it didn't shield him from being insulted by President Trump. But in Britain, it's actually kind of worked in Starmer's favor because he's been able to show his independence and stand up to the president in a way that is popular with a lot of the voters in Britain who don't like Trump. So, it's a different picture in different countries, but in all of these countries, the leaders are walking the same difficult balance, which is how do we stay out of a war that our publics don't like or support, but how do we look like we're doing everything we can to prevent an energy crisis from taking over our economies?
### 北约的“精神”与“法律条文” **Natalie Kitroof**: 但就目前而言，据我所知，他们仍然大多坚持不被拖入战争的底线，至少不是以**特朗普**想要的方式。而且似乎我们的盟友基本上是在说，看，我们实际上没有义务以那种方式提供帮助。**北约**的法律条文规定，只有在受到攻击后，你才参与战争以互相防御。但是，**Mark**，**特朗普**的观点对吗？**北约**的精神是盟友在极端情况下团结一致，共同行动？以**乌克兰**为例。**乌克兰**不是**北约**成员。然而，在**俄罗斯**全面入侵**乌克兰**后，美国介入并花费了数十亿美元的纳税人资金提供帮助。那么，**特朗普**期望**欧洲**人现在挺身而出是公平的吗？
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: But for now, as far as I understand it, they're still mostly holding the line on not getting dragged into the war. at least not in the way that Trump wants. And it seems as though our allies are essentially saying, look, we actually have no obligation to help in that way. The letter of the law under NATO is that you only get involved in wars to defend each other after you've been attacked. But Mark, does Trump have a point that the spirit of NATO is that the allies lock arms and act together in extreme circumstances? Take Ukraine for example. Ukraine is not a member of NATO. And yet, after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the US got involved and spent billions of taxpayer dollars to help. So, is Trump's expectation that the Europeans should step up now fair?
**Mark Landler**: 嗯，**唐纳德·特朗普**和他的盟友当然是这样看的。正如你所说，他们引用**乌克兰**作为**欧洲**在这种情况下应该挺身而出的完美例子。但如果你看看**北约**的历史，如果你与联盟的历史学家交谈，这真的不是一个很好的类比。**北约**成员没有义务盲目追随其他成员的军事冒险，特别是如果他们认为这些冒险不明智或考虑不周。对吗？
Original English **Mark Landler**: Well, that is certainly how Donald Trump and his allies see it. And as you say, they cite Ukraine as a perfect example of why Europe should step up in this case. But if you look at the history of NATO and if you talk to historians of the alliance, it's really not a very good analogy. NATO members are not obligated to blindly follow the military adventures of other members, particularly if they think they're unwise or poorly thought out. Right?
**Mark Landler**: 最好的例子可以追溯到20世纪50年代的**苏伊士危机**，当时**英国**和**法国**与**以色列**结盟，对**埃及**采取行动，而美国介入反对，因为他们认为这是错误的。这给联盟带来了严重的压力，但它为**北约**成员的行为方式奠定了基础，特别是如果他们不支持另一个**北约**成员正在做的事情。所以**北约**的历史并不是在每一次冲突中都意见一致。毕竟，它是一个民主国家的联盟，这些国家有自己的民主制度和政治体系要处理。所以我认为**北约**成员的义务是给予另一个**北约**成员公平的听证机会，听取他们的论点，如果他们支持，就加入，但如果没有**第五条**，他们没有义务这样做，在这种情况下，他们决定不这样做。你在**伊拉克**看到了这一点，但甚至在那之前，你在**苏伊士危机**中也看到了这一点。
Original English **Mark Landler**: And the best example of this is back in the 1950s, the Suez crisis when Britain and France allied with Israel in an operation against Egypt, and the United States stepped in to oppose it because they thought it was wrongheaded. severe strains in the alliance, but it laid a predicate for the way that NATO members should behave, particularly if they don't support what another NATO member is doing. So the history of NATO is not one of unonymity in every conflict. It is after all an alliance of democratic countries who have their own democracies and their own political systems to deal with. So I think the obligation for a NATO member is to give another NATO member a fair hearing to listen to their argument and if they support it to join but absent article 5 they are not obligated to do so and in this case they have decided not to. You saw it in Iraq but even before that you saw it in the Suez crisis.
### 欧洲的应对策略与美欧关系的未来 **Natalie Kitroof**: 那么，鉴于你所描述的一切，我们的**欧洲**盟友正在走的这条钢丝，他们该怎么办？他们有什么选择？嗯，他们没有很好的选择，但他们正在几个不同的层面努力。在外交层面，**欧洲**人继续部署过去行之有效的武器。**查尔斯国王**将对美国进行国事访问。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: So given everything you've described, this tight rope that our European allies are walking, what do they do? What are their options? Well, they don't have great options, but they are working on a couple of different levels. On a diplomatic level, the Europeans are continuing to deploy what have been tried and trueue weapons in the past. King Charles is going to the United States on a state visit.
**Mark Landler**: **特朗普**喜欢皇室成员。**特朗普**喜欢皇室成员，尽管**英国**有一些声音质疑现在是不是**查尔斯国王**访问美国的好时机，但他们仍在推进这次行程。我认为他们的算计是，这将为他们赢得一些好感。这将提醒总统他为什么重视**英国**这个盟友，并且可能会为整个**欧洲**消除一些摩擦。在更实际的操作层面，他们正在开始制定计划，以确保这场战争结束后**霍尔木兹海峡**的安全。**英国**组织了一次由35个国家参加的虚拟电话会议，讨论这个联盟可能是什么样子，哪些国家将为此做出贡献，将部署哪些军事资产，无论是扫雷舰还是护航舰。而且将会有更多关于组建这个联盟的操作会议。这个联盟不包括美国，就像**欧洲**为确保**乌克兰**停火而组建的“意愿联盟”也不包括美国一样。但实际上，所有这些努力都突显了**欧洲**面临的局限性。在**乌克兰**和“意愿联盟”的情况下，人们普遍认识到，除非美国继续参与，提供某种形式的安全保障，否则所有这些努力都没有多少实质意义。同样，我认为在确保**霍尔木兹海峡**安全的联盟中，如果美国不投入其军事力量和信誉来保持海峡开放，**欧洲**人自己做到这一点是极不可能的。所以，虽然这些努力表明**欧洲**如何应对，如果你愿意的话，一个“后美国时代”的世界，但它也揭示了为什么美国仍然是这个等式中如此核心的一部分。是的，我们一直在谈论美国与其**欧洲**盟友之间的分歧，但你所说的提出了一个问题：双方分裂，这种关系长期破裂的可能性有多大？这似乎真的不可能。双方都真正投入其中。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Trump loves the royals. Trump loves the royals and although there have been some voices in Britain asking why is this a good time for King Charles to go to the US, they're forging ahead with the trip. And I think their calculation is that it will buy them some goodwill. It will be a reminder to the president of why he values Britain as an ally and it will maybe smooth out some of these rough edges for the Europeans as a whole. On a more gritty operational level, they are starting to make plans for how to secure the straight of Hormuz after this war is over. The British organized a virtual conference call of 35 countries to talk about what this coalition might look like, what countries would contribute to it, what sorts of military assets would be deployed, whether it would be mind sweepers or escort ships. And uh there's going to be further even more operational meetings about putting this whole coalition together. This coalition does not include the United States much as the coalition of the willing that the Europeans have put together to secure a ceasefire in Ukraine also doesn't include the United States. But really both of these efforts underscore the limitations the Europeans face. In the case of Ukraine and the coalition of the willing, there's a general recognition that unless the United States stays involved, offers some form of security guarantees, this whole effort really doesn't have a lot of teeth to it. And likewise, I think with the coalition that would secure the straight of Hormuz, if the United States doesn't put its military might and its credibility behind an effort to keep the straight open, it's really highly unlikely that the Europeans are going to be able to do it on their own. So while these efforts show how Europe is grappling with, if you will, a postamerican world, it's also revealing why the United States remains such a central part of the equation. Yeah, we've been talking a lot about the divergence between the US and its European allies, but what you're saying raises the question of how viable it is for the two sides to split, for this relationship to actually rupture long term. It doesn't seem possible really. Both sides are truly invested in it.
**Mark Landler**: 是的，没错。**欧洲**和美国真的几乎就像一对陷入非常艰难时期的已婚夫妇。他们甚至可能住在不同的房子里，但他们共享如此多的资产。他们有如此多的共同利益，以至于分裂的代价可能比想办法维持关系的痛苦还要高。对于面临**经济危机**和**安全危机**的**欧洲**来说，与美国“离婚”的代价可能仍然太痛苦了。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Yeah, that's right. Europe and the United States are really almost like a married couple that's hit a very rough patch. They may be even living in different houses, but they share so many assets. They have so many common interests that the price of splitting is perhaps even higher than the pain of figuring out how to stay together. For Europe, staring down the barrel of an economic crisis and a security crisis, the price of divorcing from the United States is still probably too painful.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 嗯，**Mark**，非常感谢你。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Well, Mark, thank you so much.
**Mark Landler**: 谢谢你，**Natalie**。
Original English **Mark Landler**: Thank you, Natalie.
### 伊朗局势升级与美军救援行动 **Natalie Kitroof**: 在复活节星期天，在没有得到美国盟友在确保**霍尔木兹海峡**安全方面的任何帮助后，**特朗普**再次威胁**伊朗**，暗示如果**伊朗**政权不结束封锁，他将在星期二袭击**伊朗**的能源基础设施。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: On Easter Sunday, after receiving no assistance from US allies in securing the Strait of Hormuz, Trump again threatened Iran, suggesting he would strike Iranian energy infrastructure on Tuesday if the regime didn't end its blockade.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 在一篇粗俗的社交媒体帖子中，**特朗普**说：“打开海峡，你们这些疯子，否则你们将生活在地狱里。等着瞧吧。”
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: In a profane social media post, Trump said, "Open the straight, you crazy bastards, or you'll be living in hell. Just watch."
**Natalie Kitroof**: 我们马上回来。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: We'll be right back.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 这是你今天还需要知道的其他事情。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Here's what else you need to know today.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 周六晚上，美国军队执行了被描述为美国特种作战史上最具挑战性和最复杂的任务之一，以营救一名在**伊朗**被击落的战斗机飞行员，这是战争开始以来首次因敌方火力造成的损失。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: On Saturday night, US forces executed what's been described as one of the most challenging and complex missions in the history of US special operations to rescue the service member whose fighter jet was shot down in Iran. the first loss to enemy fire since the start of the war.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 最初，美国人和**伊朗**人都不知道这名受伤的军官在从驾驶舱弹射出来后藏身于山缝中的何处。这名飞行员，一名武器系统军官，躲避了24个多小时的抓捕，一度徒步攀登了7000英尺的山脊线。在他躲藏期间，**中央情报局**发起了一场欺骗行动，试图说服**伊朗**军队这名飞行员已经被营救并正在离开该国。在**中央情报局**确定了他的位置后，美国攻击机投下炸弹并向**伊朗**车队开火，以使他们远离该区域。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Initially, neither the Americans nor the Iranians knew where the injured officer was hiding in a mountain crevice after he ejected from the cockpit of his jet. The airman, a weapon system officer, evaded capture for more than 24 hours, at one point hiking up a 7,000 ft ridgeel line. While he was hiding, the CIA had initiated a deception campaign to try to convince Iranian forces that the airmen had already been rescued and was moving out of the country. After the agency identified his location, US attack aircraft dropped bombs and opened fire on Iranian convoys to keep them away from the area.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 最后，**海军海豹突击队第六分队**的突击队员救出了这名军官，他随后被空运到**科威特**接受治疗。**特朗普**总统在社交媒体上庆祝了这次救援，说：“我们抓到他了。”并指出救援队没有人员伤亡。**特朗普**说这名飞行员受了伤，但会没事的。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: In the end, Navy Seal Team Six Commandos extracted the officer, who was then flown into Kuwait for medical treatment. President Trump celebrated the rescue on social media, saying, "We got him." And noting that there were no casualties among the rescue team. Trump said the airmen had sustained injuries, but would be just fine.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 今天的节目由**Caitlyn O'Keefe**、**Mooj Zadei**、**Asta Chathurvedy**和**Michael Simon Johnson**制作。由**Maria Burn**和**Brendan Clinkenberg**编辑，**Paige Cowit**协助，并包含**Diane Wong**、**Marian Lozano**和**Dan Powell**的音乐。我们的主题音乐由**Wonderly**创作。本集由**Alyssa Monsley**制作。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: Today's episode was produced by Caitlyn O'Keefe, Mooj Zadei, Asta Chathurvedy, and Michael Simon Johnson. It was edited by Maria Burn, and Brendan Clinkenberg with help from Paige Cowit, and contains music by Diane Wong, Marian Lozano, and Dan Powell. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Alyssa Monsley.
**Natalie Kitroof**: 《The Daily》到此结束。我是**Natalie Kitroof**。明天见。
Original English **Natalie Kitroof**: That's it for the daily. I'm Natalie Kitroof. See you tomorrow.