--- author: New York Times Podcasts date: '2026-10-22' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wesNDBz6AMs speaker: New York Times Podcasts tags: - israeli-politics - wartime-election - coalition-government - military-conscription title: 决定以色列未来的一场大选：内塔尼亚胡与艾森科特的存亡之决 summary: 本期节目深入解析了以色列在后10月7日时代面临的最关键大选。总理内塔尼亚胡与主要挑战者、前以军参谋长加迪·艾森科特激烈角逐。选举的核心不仅关乎加沙战争与约旦河西岸定居者暴力，更触及司法改革、极端正统派服兵役争议以及以色列民主与社会契约的存续，双方选民均将其视为关乎国家未来的生死存亡之战。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: geopolitics area: geopolitics project: [] people: - Benjamin Netanyahu - Gadi Eisenkot companies_orgs: [] products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 关乎国家存亡的大选：被撕裂的以色列社会 **>>**: 来自《纽约时报》，我是蕾切尔·艾布拉姆斯（Rachel Abrams），这里是《The Daily》。
Original English **>>**: From The New York Times, [music] I'm Rachel Abrams and this is The Daily.
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
**>>**: 以色列人下周将前往投票站，而选票上决定的，是一个在国际舞台上日益孤立的国家的未来——这种孤立既源于加沙战争，也源于对约旦河西岸定居者暴力日益增长的抗议。因此在今天，我们的同事、耶路撒冷分社社长大卫·哈尔芬格（David Halbfinger）将解释总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与其最大的挑战者在撕裂国家的各项议题上有何分歧，以及为什么以色列双方阵营都将这次选举视为生死存亡之战。
Original English **>>**: Israelis head to the polls next week and on the ballot is the future of a country that's become increasingly isolated [music] on the world stage both because of the war in Gaza and a growing outcry over settler violence in the West [music] Bank. And so today, our colleague Jerusalem bureau chief David Halbfinger [music] explains how Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu differs from his biggest challenger on the issues that have divided the country and why Israelis on both sides view this election as existential. [music]
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
**>>**: 今天是10月22日，星期四。大卫·哈尔芬格，欢迎来到《The Daily》。
Original English **>>**: It's Thursday, October 22nd. David Halbfinger, welcome to The Daily.
**>>**: 很高兴来到这里。
Original English **>>**: Good to be here.
**>>**: 大卫，你现在是第二次担任耶路撒冷分社社长了。到目前为止你报道过多少次以色列大选？
Original English **>>**: So, David, you are now in your second stint as Jerusalem bureau chief. How many Israeli elections have you covered at this point?
**>>**: 这将是第四次。
Original English **>>**: This will be number four.
**>>**: 哇。
Original English **>>**: Wow.
**>>**: 上一次我报道了三次没有得出明确结果的选举，现在我又来了。我们看看这次会是怎样。
Original English **>>**: I covered three inconclusive elections the last time and here I am again. We'll see what this one is like.
**>>**: 至少从我们身处的美国来看，这一次感觉非同寻常。选举就在周二，这将是10月7日以来的第一次大选。大卫，我想知道你是否能梳理一下以色列人如何看待当下这一刻，以及我们——世界上其他地方的人——应该如何理解这个时刻。
Original English **>>**: This one feels different at least from here in the United States. The election is on Tuesday and this will be the first election since October 7th and I wonder, David, if you could just sort of lay out how Israelis see this moment and how we, the rest of the world, should see this moment.
**>>**: 是的，这确实非常引人瞩目。我报道过很多次大选，但从未见过哪一次有如此多的人觉得这场选举是他们国家历史上最重要、最决定命运、影响最深远的大选。 你知道，这里实际上存在两大阵营。一个是内塔尼亚胡领导的执政联盟阵营，另一个是反对派阵营。民调数据显示，双方各自获得了大约半个国家的支持。民调对双方的支持率上下浮动不过几个百分点。 这让一些人——至少反对派阵营中的许多人肯定这么觉得——感到如果结果不如他们所愿，他们甚至可能觉得在这个国家看不到自己的未来。这真的很严重。而且这绝不仅仅关乎内塔尼亚胡一人。内塔尼亚胡对外部世界来说，显然是以色列当下形象的象征：加沙战争中的以色列，处于持续冲突中的以色列，极端定居者在约旦河西岸大肆劫掠的以色列。在世界上许多人眼中，内塔尼亚胡象征着、领导着并代表着这些。 但对以色列人来说，这场选举关乎的远不止与巴勒斯坦人的冲突。事实上，在竞选活动中，这个话题并不像外界想象的那样被频繁讨论。 对以色列人而言，这真正关乎其民主制度的命运，关乎过去几年里已然支离破碎的社会契约将何去何从。这关乎保卫国家时所要求的牺牲是否公平。它真正关乎的，是这究竟将成为一个怎样的犹太国家。而这才是选票上真正决定的议题。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, it's really striking. I've covered a lot of elections. I've never covered one in which so many people feel like this election is the most important, the most fateful, the most consequential election in their country's history. You know, really there are two blocks here. There's the Netanyahu led government block and there's the opposition block. The numbers the polls suggest each have roughly half the country. The polls vary by a few points in either direction for both of them. And it's making some people, at least many people certainly in the opposition camp, feel like if it doesn't go the way they're hoping, they might even not see a future for themselves in this country. It's really quite something. And it's not just about Netanyahu. Netanyahu obviously is a symbol to the outside world of this Israel, the Israel of the Gaza war, the Israel that's in an ongoing conflict where it's extremist settlers are marauding through much of the West Bank. These are the things that much of the world sees Netanyahu as symbolizing and leading and representing for Israelis. It's about a lot more than the conflict with the Palestinians. In fact, that is something that is not discussed as much on the campaign trail as one might imagine. For Israelis, it's really about the fate of their democracy, about what's going to become of a social contract that has been really torn in the past few years. It's about fairness in the sacrifice that is demanded of people in defending the country. And it's really about what kind of Jewish state this will be. And that's really what's on the ballot.
**>>**: 听起来这次大选涉及很多不同的议题，但似乎没有一个是外界其他地方所聚焦的。换句话说，这次选举根本不是关于下一届以色列政府是否支持巴勒斯坦建国。这根本不在考虑范围内。
Original English **>>**: I mean, it really sounds like this election is about a lot of different issues and none of them are the issues that it feels like the rest of the world has been focused on. Namely, this election is not about whether the next government of Israel will support Palestinian statehood. It's just not on the table.
### 司法改革与十月七日：危机的根源 **>>**: 我想确实如此。对于绝大多数以色列人来说，在近期内提出建立巴勒斯坦国的想法根本是行不通的。这或许确实是左翼和右翼唯一能达成共识的事情。这个国家此刻处于极度分裂的状态。其中的部分原因在于，人们这种感受已经存在很长时间了，几乎至少从这届政府执政初期就已开始。如果我能带你回到10月7日之前——在2023年初，内塔尼亚胡政府上台后不久，就提出了一整套对司法系统的全面改革方案。而且其影响不仅于此，这实际上是一场针对民主体制的彻底重组，是对以色列国家体制的大修。
Original English **>>**: I think that's right. I mean, for the vast majority of Israelis, the idea of a Palestinian state is something that could be broached anytime soon is really a non-starter. And it's true that it may be like the only thing that left and right do agree on. I mean, this is an incredibly divided country at this moment. And part of the issue here is people have felt this way for a long time. Pretty much at least since the very early days of this government. If I could take you back even before October 7th, in early 2023, very soon after taking power, the Netanyahu government proposed a whole new overhaul of the judicial system. And it was more than that. It was really a democratic overhaul, an overhaul of the Israeli system.
**>>**: 没错。我提醒大家一下，那一提案引发了大规模的抗议浪潮。
Original English **>>**: Right. That proposal, I'll remind people, drew enormous protests.
**>>**: 成千上万的人走上街头，因为该方案基本上会架空司法机构，而在以色列的体制下，司法部门是对政府和议会（Knesset）唯一的实质制衡力量。因此，对内塔尼亚胡及其右翼政府唯一的权力制衡机构正面临被彻底剥夺权力的威胁。这促使人们走上街头抗议。随着那一年的推进，外界不断发出各种警告，称以色列的敌人们已经注意到其内部的极度分裂。正如那句话所说，内讧之家难以为继。不出所料，10月7日事件爆发了，带来了毁灭性的打击。
Original English **>>**: Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets because it was going to basically neuter the judiciary, which under Israel's system was the only real counterweight to the government and the Knesset. So, the one check and balance on Netanyahu and his right-wing government, they were threatening to basically disempower it. And that sent people out into the streets. And as that year went on, there were all kinds of warnings about Israel's enemies were noticing how internally divided it was. And you know, a house divided is in trouble. And lo and behold, October 7th happens, and it was devastating.
**>>**: 没错。10月7日的袭击正是在对民主面临威胁的愤怒情绪中发生的，而这种威胁正是由内塔尼亚胡执政联盟中的极右翼派系推动的，且该派系在10月7日之后变得愈发肆无忌惮。
Original English **>>**: Right. October 7th happens in the midst of this anger over this perceived threat to democracy, which was driven by the hard-right faction in Netanyahu's coalition, which has only gotten more and more emboldened since October 7th happened.
**>>**: 是的，一点没错。战争爆发后，正是内塔尼亚胡政府中的极端分子——像本格维尔（Ben-Gvir）和斯莫特里奇（Smotrich）这样的人——在极力推动将加沙夷为平地。他们在如何处置巴勒斯坦人方面发表了最煽动性的言论。当政坛就究竟是尝试达成协议解救人质，还是单纯继续军事行动展开辩论时，他们就是那些坚持继续打下去、永远主张打下去的声音。这在某种程度上撕裂了政府，但更严重的是撕裂了整个社会。如今进入这次选举，他们正寻求获得选民授权，以真正完成他们在改变以色列政府运作方式上所开启的进程。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, that's right. You know, the war happens, and it's the extremists in the Netanyahu government, people like Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, who are pushing basically to raise Gaza. They say the most inflammatory things about how to deal with the Palestinians. When there's debate over whether to try to strike a deal to get the hostages out or to just keep going with the military campaign, they're the voices to keep going, always to keep going. It tears apart the government to some degree, but it really tears apart the society. And heading into this election, they are looking for a mandate to really go ahead and complete what they had started in changing the way Israel's government functions.
### 内塔尼亚胡的竞选纲领：“安全先生”的叙事与征兵争议 **>>**: 好的，那我们把目光转向竞选本身，因为我想了解各位主要候选人究竟是如何展现各自差异的。我们先从本雅明·内塔尼亚胡说起，他显然是现任总理。他的竞选主张是什么？在你所描述的这些关键议题上，他又持什么立场？
Original English **>>**: Okay, so let's turn to the campaign itself because I want to understand how each of the leading candidates are basically distinguishing themselves. Let's start with Benjamin Netanyahu, obviously the incumbent. What does his campaign stand for and where does he stand on some of these key issues that you've described?
**>>**: 对以色列人来说最重要的议题——真正排在第一、二、三、四、五位的核心议题——永远是国家安全，这完全是因为该国的国家性质、它在中东的地缘环境以及其充斥战争的历史所决定的。
Original English **>>**: So, the most important issue to Israelis, really like the number 1 2 3 4 and 5 on the list, is always security just because of the nature of the state and its surroundings in the Middle East and its history of warfare.
**>>**: 我毕生致力于捍卫以色列国的安全，没有任何事情能够改变这一点。没有任何事。绝对没有任何事。
Original English **>>**: I've devoted my life to protect the security of the state of Israel and nothing will change that. Nothing. Absolutely nothing.
**>>**: 内塔尼亚胡一直将自己标榜为“安全先生”，塑造成那个能保卫以色列人安全的人。
Original English **>>**: Netanyahu has always passed himself off as Mr. Security, as the guy who can keep Israelis safe.
**>>**: 我们采取主动，我们发起进攻，我们出其不意并打击那些企图消灭我们、企图杀害我们的敌人，我们予以反击……
Original English **>>**: We initiate, we attack, we surprise and we attack those enemies that seek our destruction, that seek to kill us, we attack
**>>**: 显然，由于10月7日袭击发生在他的任内，这一套说辞现在很难让人买账。
Original English **>>**: Obviously, it's a harder sell now because October 7th happened on his watch.
**>>**: 是的，我正想说，对于在10月7日执政的人来说，要让人信服他就是那个能确保国家安全的人似乎很难，尤其是考虑到我们现在知道内塔尼亚胡政府此前收到了各种关于即将发生袭击的预警。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, I was going to say it seems sort of hard for the guy who was in charge on October 7th to make a compelling claim that he's the one to keep the country safe, especially considering that we now know that there were all sorts of warnings about an impending attack to the Netanyahu government.
**>>**: 没错。现在存在大量的指责和推卸责任，而其核心在于，内塔尼亚胡基本上坚称自己在10月7日当天没有足够早接到电话通报，以至于无法采取实质行动；如果他早接到电话，一切都会大不相同。
Original English **>>**: Right. Well, you know, there's a lot of blame casting and finger pointing and the sort of heart of it is Netanyahu basically says that he didn't get the phone call early enough on October 7th to actually do anything about it and if he had, everything would have been different.
**>>**: 基本上他完全不承担任何责任。
Original English **>>**: He's really not taking any responsibility, basically.
**>>**: 是的，毫无承担。而这是整场竞选中最大的议题之一，那就是以色列在事情发生重大纰漏时会设立所谓的“国家调查委员会”。这就类似于美国的9/11调查委员会。
Original English **>>**: No, no. And that is one of the biggest issues in this entire campaign, which is Israel has a thing called a national commission of inquiry when things really go wrong in a big, big way. They set up It's like the 9/11 commission
**>>**: 嗯。
Original English **>>**: Mhm.
**>>**: 在美国有这种机制。我想几乎历任以色列总理都经历过此类调查。但内塔尼亚胡从未接受过，而且他坚决拒绝配合此类委员会；而反对派则表示：我们上台后要做的第一件事，就是任命一个委员会来查清究竟出了什么问题。
Original English **>>**: in the United States. They do this sort of thing. Almost every prime minister has had one of these, I think. Netanyahu never has, and he's absolutely refusing to go along with such a commission, and the opposition is like, that's the first thing we're going to do is appoint a commission to see what really went wrong.
**>>**: 那么，当他说“我是安全担当，我是那个能保卫你们安全的人”时，他究竟拿出了什么证据来证明这一点呢？
Original English **>>**: So, when he says like, I'm the security guy, I'm the one that's going to keep you safe, what does he actually point to as evidence of that?
**>>**: 他指向的是自10月7日以来发生的一切。
Original English **>>**: Well, he points to everything that happened since October 7th.
**>>**: 你还知道有哪个面积只有新泽西州大小的国家，能够支撑一场在七条战线上持续3年的战争吗？七条战线：哈马斯、真主党、胡塞武装、伊朗、伊拉克的民兵组织、叙利亚的民兵组织，以及犹太·萨马利亚地区的巴勒斯坦恐怖分子。
Original English **>>**: Do you know any other country the size of New Jersey capable of fighting a seven-front war and for 3 years? Seven fronts. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iran, militias in Iraq, militias in Syria, Palestinian terrorists in Judea Samaria.
**>>**: 以色列击毙了真主党的领袖；他们清除了包括叶海亚·辛瓦尔（Yahya Sinwar）在内的所有哈马斯头目。在黎巴嫩，他们上演了寻呼机行动，你知道的，寻呼机爆炸事件……
Original English **>>**: Israel has killed the leader of Hezbollah. They killed all those Hamas leaders, including Yahya Sinwar. In Lebanon, they had that pager stunt, you know, exploding pagers
**>>**: 远程引爆，对吧。
Original English **>>**: Remotely, right.
**>>**: 是的，就在所有这些真主党成员的口袋里引爆。还有针对伊朗的军事行动，内塔尼亚胡成功争取到了美国协助。这些行动究竟算不算成功由你来评判，但他确实成功拉拢了美国站在他这一边来实施所有这些行动。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, in the pockets of all these Hezbollah operatives. They had the wars with Iran, in which Netanyahu was able to get the United States to help out. You be the judge how successful those were, but he has certainly been able to get the United States on his side to do all of these things.
**>>**: 是的，我想知道那些在加沙战争中承受了损失的以色列人对此作何感想。我想到了那些失去至亲的人，或是那些有预备役军人成员的家庭，这些预备役人员一次被征召入伍数月，甚至被多次征召。在以色列，这涵盖了很大一部分人群。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, I wonder how all of that plays with Israelis who have suffered losses since the Gaza war. I'm thinking about people who have lost loved ones or families that include reservists who have been called up to serve for months at a time and maybe even multiple times. And that is a lot of Israel.
**>>**: 这是一个非常关键的观点。我还想指出的是，虽然以色列打过很多场仗，但以往的战争都很短暂。比如1967年的那场六日战争。
Original English **>>**: That's a really important point, and I would also note that while Israel has fought a lot of wars, they've all been short. You know, there was that six-day one back in 1967.
**>>**: 对。我记忆中最长的一场也就是2010年代持续了几周的战事。而这一次，可以说战火仍在继续，这给那些一直频繁进出前线和战场的士兵与预备役人员施加了极其沉重的负担。许多人牺牲了，家庭承受了极大的考验。当你动辄要离家服役100天时，你很难保住一份工作。 让这种情况雪上加霜，并真正加剧社会紧张关系的，是许多以色列人根本就不服兵役这一事实。极端正统派在人口中所占的比例正在迅速攀升，他们家庭规模庞大，且早早成家生子。 多年来他们一直享有免服兵役的特权，但这一豁免在2024年已被正式裁定违宪废除。所以这在法律上已不再合法，但他们实际上依然抵制服役。现在他们被公开称为逃兵役者，有些人甚至开始因此被捕，但他们的领袖依然态度顽固，坚决拒绝服役。 而他们的政党是当前内塔尼亚胡执政联盟中不可或缺的组成部分。内塔尼亚胡依靠他们获取执政支持，而他们依靠他来提供保护——包括免于被征召入伍，以及为这些不断扩大的家庭提供巨额财政补贴。因此，局面就变成了：大体上半个国家的国民既服役、工作又纳税，他们保护并供养着另外那些既不服役、不工作也不纳税的人群。
Original English **>>**: Right. longest I can remember was a matter of weeks in the 2010s. This one, it's arguably still going, and that has placed an inordinate demand on the soldiers and the reservists who have been going in and out of battle and combat all this time. I mean, lots of people have died, families have been really tested. It's difficult to hold down a job when you're going off and serving for 100 days at a time. And compounding that, and really exacerbating the tensions in the society, is the fact that a lot of Israelis just don't serve. Ultra-Orthodox, who are growing as a percentage of the population, rapidly, they have a large families, and they start having families young. They have an exemption for years from serving, but that was formally overturned in 2024. So, it's no longer legal, but really they are resisting serving. They're now being openly called draft dodgers, and some are starting to be arrested for it, but their leaders are defiant, they're refusing to do this. And their political parties are an essential part of the current Netanyahu-led government. He relies on them for support, they rely on him for protection from, among other things, the draft, as well as for really huge subsidies for those growing families. And so, you have the half of the country, more or less, who serves and holds jobs and pays taxes, protecting and subsidizing people who do none of those things.
**>>**: 没错。关于极端正统派是否服兵役的问题，多年来一直是个悬而未决的争议。大卫，你刚才说这项豁免现在是非法的。但随着这一问题变得日益紧迫，内塔尼亚胡最近对此表态过什么吗？
Original English **>>**: Right. This issue of whether the ultra-Orthodox serve in the military, that has been a long-standing issue for years now. You said, David, that this exemption is illegal. What has Netanyahu said about this more recently, though, as this is becoming increasingly urgent?
**>>**: 很有意思的是，就在前几天军方以逃避兵役为由逮捕了一批极端正统派男子。内塔尼亚胡公开反对这些逮捕行动。他称这是在破坏非强制性征召极端正统派入伍的进程。基本上他的表态是：“我们正在着手解决这个问题。我们的联盟此前已经快要通过一项真正具有实质意义的征兵法案了。再次选我们上台，我们就会落实这项法案。”但外界的批评在于，这种情况只会继续拖下去，因为内塔尼亚胡需要极端正统派来维持自己的执政地位，为了把极端正统派送进军队而冒失去权力的风险，对他来说根本不划算。
Original English **>>**: So, it was interesting that just the other day the military arrested a bunch of ultra-Orthodox men for draft evasion. And Netanyahu came out against these arrests. He called it an attempt to harm the process of drafting the ultra-Orthodox without coercion. And basically he's saying, "We're going to get to this. You know, our coalition will It was on the verge of passing a real meaningful draft law. Reelect us and we'll do that." But the criticism here is that it's just going to keep going cuz Netanyahu needs the ultra-Orthodox to preserve his hold on power and it's just not important enough to him to risk that for the sake of getting ultra-Orthodox men into the military.
### 国际孤立与“斯巴达”路线 **>>**: 这正是许多人都熟悉的内塔尼亚胡叙事：他愿意容忍很多事情，只为维持执政联盟并维系权力。你刚才提到了极端正统派，但联盟中还有另一股势力，也就是由本格维尔和斯莫特里奇代表的极右翼阵营，我认为他们要对助长约旦河西岸定居者针对巴勒斯坦人的暴力氛围承担主要责任。我认为，这一点加上自10月7日以来我们在加沙听到的伤亡数字，所有这一切似乎都导致以色列在国际舞台上日益孤立。这是很多人脑海中的既有印象。我想知道，内塔尼亚胡对此哪怕做过任何解释或表态吗？
Original English **>>**: This is the story of Netanyahu that I think a lot of people are familiar with. This idea that he is willing to put up with a lot in order to keep his coalition together and stay in power. You have just described the ultra-Orthodox, but there's a whole other contingent, this right-wing contingent represented by Ben-Gvir and Smotrich, that gets a lot of the blame, I think, or responsibility for creating an environment that has enabled an increase in settler violence toward Palestinians in the West Bank. And I think that that, on top of the casualty numbers in Gaza that we have been hearing about since October 7th, all of this feels like it has led Israel to becoming increasingly isolated on the world stage. That is the image I think that a lot of people have. And I wonder what, if anything, has Netanyahu said about this?
**>>**: 首先，他对此予以开脱，你知道，在很多情况下他将其归咎于反犹主义。他谈到欧洲的穆斯林移民，谈到美国由卡塔尔资金资助的反以色列和反犹太教授。这非常具有阴谋论色彩，它把责任推卸给除了以色列自身政策以外的所有因素。以色列历来将自己视为一个处于防御状态、保持戒备蜷缩姿态的国家。 现在，他把以色列描绘成一个“斯巴达”，一个如果其他国家对其实施武器禁运就必须自行生产武器的国家，就好像它必须自力更生、靠自己的土地生存一样。但我认为在某种程度上，内塔尼亚胡的追随者和支持者早就认定全世界都仇恨以色列、而且将永远仇恨以色列，因此他们很乐意被允许继续这样去思考。
Original English **>>**: So, first of all, he explains it away, you know, attributing it to anti-Semitism in many cases. He talks about the Muslim immigration in Europe. He talks about Qatari money in the United States funding anti-Israel and anti-Semitic professors, basically. You know, it's a very conspiratorial and it has everything to do with anything except Israel's policies. And Israel has always seen itself as kind of a country on the defensive and a defensive crouch. and now he's talking about Israel as a Sparta as a kind of nation that's going to have to produce its own weapons if other countries place embargoes on arms dealing to Israel like it's going to have to live on its own you know live off the land kind of thing but I think there's to some degree Netanyahu's followers his supporters already think that the world hates Israel and the world's always going to hate Israel and so like they're happy to be sort of given the permission to think that way.
**>>**: 而且这让我觉得，当内塔尼亚胡从强大的盟友美国那里获得如此巨额的支持时，他更容易在这种立场上变本加厉——美国仍在向以色列提供海量军事援助，使其能够继续在加沙的军事行动；当然，美国此前还与以色列联手打击了伊朗。
Original English **>>**: Well also though I mean it strikes me that it's easier for Netanyahu to double down on this kind of a stance when he does have such huge amounts of support from the United States hugely powerful ally which is still supplying Israel with tons of military aid that has allowed it to continue its campaign in Gaza and it and of course is is the United States joined Israel in its attack on Iran.
**>>**: 确实完全如此。我认为内塔尼亚胡的行动和言论都表明，他把所有的鸡蛋都放在了美国这个篮子里，尤其是押注在特朗普政府的篮子里。他的批评者和反对派则会指出：唐纳德·特朗普不可能永远当总统，此后等待以色列的可能就是一场滔天巨浪。
Original English **>>**: So you know that's exactly right and I think Netanyahu's actions and what he says all indicate that he has put all his eggs in the United States basket and particularly in the Trump administration's basket. What his critics and opponents will say is that Donald Trump is not going to be president forever and what comes thereafter maybe the deluge.
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
**>>**: 大卫，你刚才解释了内塔尼亚胡在一系列议题上的立场，这些议题激怒了很多人——无论是不对10月7日承担责任，未能解决极端正统派征兵问题，还是在实质上让以色列日益沦为被排斥的“贱民国家”的种种举措。然而[轻蔑地轻哼]他在民调中仍然与对手不相上下，我认为这正如你所言，凸显了当前这个国家分裂得有多深。
Original English **>>**: David you just explained where Netanyahu stands on a bunch of these different issues that have made a lot of people angry at him whether it's not taking responsibility for October 7th or not resolving the issue of the ultra-orthodox draft or moves that have basically made Israel more of a pariah state and yet [snorts] he is still neck and neck in the polls which I think highlights just how deeply divided the country is as you said in this moment.
**>>**: 是的，千真万确。最能体现这种分裂的莫过于这样一个事实：取代他的头号候选人，反对派阵营领头政党的领袖[音乐]，是一个与本雅明·内塔尼亚胡截然相反的人。[音乐]
Original English **>>**: Yeah that's true and nothing better encapsulates that division than the fact that the number one candidate to replace him and the leading party in the opposition camp [music] is a guy who could not be more unlike Benjamin Netanyahu. [music]
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
### 挑战者加迪·艾森科特：悲剧背景与问责政治 **>>**: 我们稍后就回来。大卫，在竞选的另一方，最主要的反对派候选人是加迪·艾森科特（Gadi Eisenkot）。请给我们讲讲他的竞选诉求是什么，他对广大以色列公众的吸引力何在？
Original English **>>**: We'll be right back. So David, on the other side of the race, the leading opposition candidate is Gadi Eisenkot. So tell us what his pitch is and and what his appeal is to the broader Israeli public.
**>>**: 艾森科特开出的药方基本上是去治愈一个严重分裂的国家。内塔尼亚胡一直在煽动分裂、挑动一部分公众对抗另一部分公众，而艾森科特谈论的是努力重新弥合社会。此外谈及他的号召力，这是一个在政坛和军界深耕极久的人物，直到不久前他还担任过长达4年的以色列国防军参谋长。他非常受人爱戴。在公众形象上，可以说他展现出一种既坚定又温和的姿态。 而且他向政治家的转型非常迅速。一年前他刚组党时，在民调中微不足道，因此这可以说是彗星般的迅速崛起。
Original English **>>**: So Eisenkot is basically offering to heal a sorely divided country. Netanyahu has been stoking divisions, pitting one swath of the public against another, and Eisenkot is talking about trying to pull things back together. But also, to talk about his appeal, this is a guy who has been around for a long long time, including as the chief of staff of the Israeli military for 4 years very recently. He was very well-liked. He had a very, kind of, I would say, firm but kindly public persona. And he has really made the transition to a politician very very quickly. When he formed his party a year ago, he was tiny in the polls, so that's quite a meteoric rise.
**>>**: 大卫，能给我们讲讲他的身世背景吗？比如他来自哪里，他是如何走到今天这一步的？
Original English **>>**: Can you tell us a little bit about his backstory, David? Like, where is he from and sort of how did he get to this point?
**>>**: 这真的很有趣，而且同样与他试图击败的对手截然不同。艾森科特出生于以色列北部的太巴列市（Tiberias），父母是来自摩洛哥的移民。这使他成为一名米兹拉希犹太人（Mizrahi Jew），即来自中东和北非的犹太人后裔。应该指出的是，米兹拉希犹太人大约占以色列犹太人口的一半，但此前从未出过一位米兹拉希犹太人总理。因此这不仅关乎他的出身背景，也是一种非常重要的政治优势。他在以色列最南端的埃拉特（Eilat）长大并读完高中。那是一座真正的工薪阶层城镇。大多数以色列人都会被征召入伍服役。他18岁高中毕业后应征入伍，加入了戈兰尼旅（Golani Brigade）。这是一支作风非常坚韧硬朗的步兵部队，并不是伞兵或特种突击队。
Original English **>>**: It's really interesting, and again, it couldn't be more different from the guy he's trying to defeat. So Eisenkot was born in the north, in the city of Tiberias, to Moroccan immigrant parents. That makes him a Mizrahi Jew, Jews from the Middle East and North Africa. I should say that Mizrahi Jews are roughly half the Jews of Israel, and no Mizrahi Jew has ever been prime minister. So this is not just who he is, it's kind of a an important political advantage. And he grew up and went to high school in Eilat in the very south of Israel. That's a really working class town. Most Israelis get drafted and serve. He did when he got out of high school at 18 and went into a brigade called Golani. This is a very gritty infantry unit. It's not the paratroopers or the commandos.
**>>**: 基本上他们就是前线的普通基层大头兵。
Original English **>>**: These are the grunt workers, basically.
**>>**: 他们是基层步兵，而且部队的一个自豪点就在于其人员构成了广泛的社会缩影。他的晋升速度非常快，成为了戈兰尼旅的指挥官。多年后军方进行重组，需要任命新的总参谋长，当时在内塔尼亚胡手下担任国防部长的埃胡德·巴拉克（Ehud Barak）推荐艾森科特出任总参谋长，这将使他越级超越按顺位排在前面的另一位候选人。 令人惊叹的是，他拒绝了这一职位。他认为副总参谋长本尼·甘茨（Benny Gantz）作为法定接班人理应获得该职位。
Original English **>>**: They're the grunts and and it's also kind of a point of pride that it's really a cross-section and he had a very rapid rise. He became the commander of the Golani Brigade and a number of years later when there's a shake-up in the military, they need to name a new chief of staff and Ehud Barak, then the defense secretary under Netanyahu, recommends that Eisenkot be named chief of staff, which would leapfrog him over somebody else who's kind of next in line. Amazingly, he turned down the job. He felt that the deputy, the guy who was next in line, it was Benny Gantz, it should go to him.
**>>**: 哇，对于一个政治人物来说，这种举动感觉非常罕见。
Original English **>>**: Wow, that feels like kind of an unusual move for a politician.
**>>**: 确实如此。但到了2015年，军方最高职位再次摆在他面前，这一次他接受了任命。时间快进到2023年10月7日，正是这位经验丰富的军人加入了内塔尼亚胡的战时内阁，去稳固一个正面临以色列建国以来前所未有危机的政府。 随后在2023年12月，艾森科特自己的儿子——他五个孩子中最小的一个、年仅25岁的预备役士兵[音乐]——在一次地道爆炸中阵亡。
Original English **>>**: That's right. But then in 2015, he's offered the top job again and this time he says yes. Fast forward to October 7th, 2023 and it's this experienced military man who comes into the government of Netanyahu to really buck up a government that is dealing with something Israel has never faced. Then December of 2023, Eisenkot's own son, his youngest of five children, a 25-year-old reservist, [music] is killed in a tunnel explosion.
**>>**: 嗯。
Original English **>>**: Mhm.
**>>**: 每个人都目睹了那场葬礼，成千上万的人[音乐]赶去吊唁，包括内塔尼亚胡也出席了，这正是出于艾森科特本人的声望。更有无数人在电视前观看了直播。
Original English **>>**: And everybody saw that funeral, like thousands [music] came to it including Netanyahu, because of who Eisenkot was. Many more watched on television live.
**>>**: 是的，确实如此。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, it was.
**>>**: 艾森科特为他的儿子致了一段痛彻心扉、极其深情的悼词。如今，除了身处政府高位之外，他更成为了以色列社会巨大丧亲之痛的象征。[音乐]
Original English **>>**: Eizenkot gives this heart-rending, very personal eulogy for his son. And now he's like the picture of bereavement in addition to being who he is in the government. [music]
**>>**: 我想很多以色列人都能对这个形象感同身受，因为许多以色列人也在加沙战争中失去了至亲。
Original English **>>**: It was also an an image I would imagine that many Israelis could relate to cuz many Israelis have also lost somebody in the Gaza war.
**>>**: 没错。
Original English **>>**: That's right.
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
**>>**: 太多的人失去了亲友或有人负伤。你知道，在这个国家你不可能不认识遭受过巨大丧亲之痛的人。[音乐]
Original English **>>**: So many people have lost someone or had somebody injured. You know, you can't avoid knowing people [music] in this country who have experienced a lot of loss.
**>>**: 嗯。
Original English **>>**: Mhm.
**>>**: 就在葬礼当天，艾森科特的侄子在加沙牺牲。
Original English **>>**: And the day of the funeral, Eizenkot's nephew is killed in Gaza.
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
**>>**: 大约一年后，他又失去了另一位侄子。 现在，把这种沉重的情感因素加诸艾森科特参与内阁事务的体验之中。起初合作似乎还算顺利，但好景不长。内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特随后基本上开始就幕后发生的事情互相抨击指责。艾森科特形容总理在那段时期“吓得像片树叶一样发抖”，而自己不得不挺身而出“稳住方向盘”。
Original English **>>**: He loses another nephew almost a year later. So now add that emotional factor to what Eizenkot is experiencing as he participates in this government. Now, it seems to have gone fairly well at first, but it didn't go well for very long. Both Netanyahu and Eizenkot are basically trash talking one another about, you know, what went on behind the scenes. Eizenkot describes the Prime Minister as shaking like a leaf in that period and that he had to kind of really, you know, almost like take the wheel.
**>>**: 哇。
Original English **>>**: Wow.
**>>**: 但真正导致内塔尼亚胡和艾森科特决裂的，是如何处置人质问题。内塔尼亚胡承受着斯莫特里奇和本格维尔的压力，要求全力推进、彻底摧毁加沙、继续消灭哈马斯。但以色列民众则大声疾呼达成协议解救人质。2024年1月，艾森科特公开表达了他的沮丧与不满。到了6月，他退出了政府。
Original English **>>**: But really what causes Netanyahu and Eizenkot to clash is what to do about the hostages. Netanyahu is under pressure from Smotrich and Ben-Gvir to really just full steam ahead, keep destroying Gaza, keep killing Hamas, eliminating them. But Israelis are crying out to do a deal to get the hostages out. In January of 2024, he goes public with his frustrations. By June, he's out.
**>>**: 他辞职了。
Original English **>>**: He quits.
**>>**: 他辞官退出了政府。是的。一年后，他组建了自己的政党。
Original English **>>**: He quits the government. Yeah. And, you know, a year later, he forms a political party of his own.
**>>**: 听起来艾森科特是愤然退出了内塔尼亚胡政府。他成立了这个新政党。那么对于自己的政治纲领和立场主张，他是怎么阐述的呢？
Original English **>>**: So, Eisenkot quits the Netanyahu government in disgust, it sounds like. He forms this new party. What does he say about what his platform is and what he stands for?
**>>**: 我认为最重要的核心词是问责与担当。这既是以色列民众极度渴求的品质，也是对内塔尼亚胡的含蓄斥责与批评。 正如我们前面谈到的，内塔尼亚胡一直在回避可能追究各方责任的国家调查委员会。因此，艾森科特承诺提供负责任的领导力。他将比比（内塔尼亚胡的昵称）称为“反面领袖”。他说：按照我受到的训练，有荣誉时大家共享，面临失败时你必须挺身而出承担责任。他还主张公平分担服役负担，在全社会广泛分摊责任，确保极端正统派承担其应尽的兵役份额。
Original English **>>**: The biggest thing of all, I think, is accountability and responsibility. That's both something that Israelis crave, and it's an implicit rebuke and criticism of Netanyahu. As we said, Netanyahu is avoiding the national commission that could deliver accountability wherever it may lead. So, he's promising responsible leadership. And he's calling Bibi an anti-leader. You know, he's saying that the way I was trained, when there's credit, you share it. When there's failure, you step forward and own it. And he's talking about sharing the burden of service and spreading it around and making sure that the ultra-Orthodox do their fair share of military service.
**>>**: 来自一位在这场战争中失去了一个儿子和两个侄子的人，这番话无疑具有极其强大的说服力。
Original English **>>**: Which would seem like a pretty powerful message coming from somebody who lost a son and two nephews in this war.
**>>**: 确实非常有力。这也是他本人开始公开强调的鲜明反差。在一次采访中，他谈到内塔尼亚胡的两个儿子在服役期间所做的服役工作微不足道、无关紧要。其中一个儿子基本上以在社交媒体上支持其父亲的右翼网络喷子而闻名，过去3年里大部分时间都待在迈阿密消遣，且某种程度上还由纳税人出资配备了安保。因此对艾森科特而言，公开拉出这种对比并不算自降身段。
Original English **>>**: Very much so. And that's also a contrast that he has begun drawing himself. In one interview, he talked about how Netanyahu's two sons did really minor or insignificant service when they served in the military. And one of his sons, who's basically known as a right-wing troll in support of his father on social media, spent much of the last 3 years kind of hanging out in Miami with security to some degree on the taxpayer's dime. So, for Eisenkot, it's not beneath him to make that contrast as well.
**>>**: 这真的很有趣，因为听起来艾森科特极力聚焦于共同分担战争责任，但根据你的描述，他并没有过多谈及战争本身在导致以色列于国际舞台上孤立这一方面。因此我很好奇，对于他对此在乎程度有多深以及他对此发表过什么看法，我们了解多少？
Original English **>>**: It's really interesting because it sounds like Eisenkot is very much focused on sharing the responsibility for the war, but he's not really talking a lot from your description of the war itself in terms of how it has isolated Israel on the world stage. So, I just sort of wonder what we know about how much he cares about that and what he has said about that, if anything.
**>>**: 让我先简短谈一下加沙，因为他对加沙谈得确实不多。在加沙问题上，他基本上表示希望与特朗普政府合作，落实其在加沙达成解决方案的计划，以实现战后重建等等，从而真正结束战争，达成一项将哈马斯彻底从加沙政权中剔除的解决方案。他绝不是一个会为在加沙死难的所有巴勒斯坦人流泪同情的人。他是一个希望无论通过政治途径还是军事手段都要彻底完成消灭哈马斯任务的人。 而在约旦河西岸问题上，他的立场要清晰得多。他基本上将约旦河西岸犹太定居者针对巴勒斯坦人的极端暴力行径视作以色列自己挖下的深坑，而且还在继续往深里挖。他说你首先要做的事情就是“停止挖掘”。那么这意味着什么呢？ 首先，他将恢复以往那套基本上能够防止此类事件发生、或者至少比现在有效得多的安全管控机制。这意味着将约旦河西岸的军队及其民政管理局从斯莫特里奇的控制下抽离出来；这意味着将负责前往逮捕那些定居者的以色列警察从伊塔马尔·本格维尔的掌控下抽离出来。然而他的举措还会走得更远。他谈到过，在约旦河西岸他要做的第一件事，就是铲除并撤离那些非法建立在旧《奥斯陆协议》本应划归巴勒斯坦人区域内的以色列定居点。
Original English **>>**: Let me just deal with Gaza really quickly, cuz he doesn't talk about Gaza much. On Gaza, he basically says that he wants to work with the Trump administration on its plan to bring a solution in Gaza, to get to reconstruction, and so on, to really end the war, to have a settlement that gets Hamas out of government there. This is not a guy whose heart is bleeding for all the Palestinians killed in Gaza. This is a guy who wants to finish the job against Hamas one way or the other, whether it's politically or if need be, militarily. And in the West Bank, he's much more valuable. I mean, he basically treats what's going on in the West Bank with extremist violence by Jewish settlers against Palestinians as Israel in a hole of its own making and just continuing to dig. And he says the first thing you got to do is stop digging. So, what does that mean? So, the first thing he would re-establish the security regime that used to basically prevent this kind of thing, or at least prevent it a lot more than it does now. That means taking the military in the West Bank and its civil administration for the West Bank out from under the control of Smotrich. And it means taking the Israeli police, who have to come in and arrest those settlers, out from under the control of Itamar Ben-Gvir. He would go a lot farther, though. He's talked about, you know, the first thing he would do in the West Bank is to uproot and evacuate the settlements, the illegal Israeli settlements that have been set up in areas that are really supposed to be reserved for the Palestinians under the old Oslo Accords.
**>>**: 所以他并没有主张巴勒斯坦主权——尽管内塔尼亚胡可能想让选民相信艾森科特有此企图或对此感兴趣。他所谈论的只是恢复某种稳定的秩序，这种秩序在10月7日袭击发生之前以及战争爆发前，曾是以色列人习以为常的常态。
Original English **>>**: So, he's not talking about Palestinian sovereignty, which Netanyahu might want voters to believe he is or interested in. He's just talking about restoring a certain stability that Israelis were used to just a few years ago, before the attacks on October 7th and before the war.
**>>**: 没错。他说如果关于冲突存在所谓的最终地位永久解决方案，那也是在非常遥远的未来，远在地平线与地球曲率之外。但他确实认为，给巴勒斯坦人带来希望的理由，总比告诉他们毫无希望要好。
Original English **>>**: That's right. He says that if there will be a final status, you know, permanent solution to the conflict, it is a long way off, beyond the horizon and the curvature of the earth. But he does think that it's better to give the Palestinians reason for hope than to tell them there is no hope.
### 选举制度与未来的不确定性 **>>**: 大卫，你刚才提到选情不相上下，但显然以色列的选举机制与美国大相径庭。你能给我们大概讲讲接下来可能会发生什么吗？
Original English **>>**: You said, David, that the race is neck and neck, but obviously Israeli elections work differently than they do here in the United States. Can you just walk us through a little bit about what is likely to happen next?
**>>**: 是的，如果你习惯了两党制，这确实极难理解。但本质上，这是执政联盟政治。你不是像美国人选总统那样直接投给总理，而是投给政党。你走进投票站，挑选一张印有你心仪政党标志和名称的选票小纸片。然后，得票最多的政党在议会中获得最多的议席，而拥有最多议席的政党[轻哼]会被总统授权组阁。目前民调数据十分混乱。我们说艾森科特和内塔尼亚胡不相上下，是因为艾森科特在民调中仅略微领先内塔尼亚胡，他们各自阵营的联盟也是如此。这次大选可能会出现明确的胜负结果，但考虑到选情的胶着，甚至更有可能出现无明确胜果的僵局，而这可能导致重新举行大选。我们在2019年、2020年和2021年就已经经历过好几次这种情况了。 或者，这也可能导致一种我们前所未见的新局面。艾森科特及其盟友正在谈论的一件事是：即使他们无法成功组阁，只要他们在议席上领先，他们就可以开始推动通过一些法律。设想一下，一个拥有新议长的新议会通过了一项法律，比如禁止面临刑事审判的候选人竞选总理。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, this is incredibly difficult to understand if you come from a two-party system. But basically, it's coalition politics. It's you don't vote for a prime minister like you do for a president in the United States. You vote for a party. You go into the ballot box and you choose a slip of paper that has the symbol and name of the party that you prefer. And then, you know, the parties with the most votes get the most seats in the parliament, and the [snorts] party that has the most seats gets offered the chance to form a government by the president. Now, the polls are all over the place. We say that Eisenkot and Netanyahu are neck and neck cuz Eisenkot is a little bit ahead of Netanyahu in the polls. The same goes for their coalitions. There could be a clear outcome to this election, but it is perhaps even more likely that, given how tight things are, we could have an inconclusive election, and that could lead to another election. We've had several of them in 2019, 2020, 2021. Or it also could lead to something we haven't seen before. One thing that Eisenkot and his allies are talking about doing is if they do come out ahead, they can start to pass some laws even if they can't form a government. So, imagine a new parliament with a new speaker passing laws like maybe one that bans a candidate from running for prime minister if he's facing criminal trial.
**>>**: 这项法律将直接波及内塔尼亚胡。
Original English **>>**: Which would include Netanyahu.
**>>**: 没错，或者对过去30年里执政了19年的人设置任期限制。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, or that imposes term limits on somebody who's served for 19 out of the last 30 years.
**>>**: 同样直指内塔尼亚胡。
Original English **>>**: Also Netanyahu.
**>>**: 是的，只要他们愿意，有很多手段可以施展，并且能以这个国家从未有过的方式打出真正的政治硬球。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, there's a lot of things they could do if they wanted to and really play political hardball in a way that that nobody has in this country before.
**>>**: 但大卫，我从你这里得到的信号是，局势很可能会变得相当混乱。我们目前还不知道究竟会发生什么，而且大选结果并不一定意味着近期就会产生一位明确的总理。
Original English **>>**: But the message I'm getting from you David is that this is likely to be quite messy. We don't know what's going to happen yet and the outcome does not necessarily mean that there will be a clear prime minister in the immediate future.
**>>**: 没错。如果你觉得现在已经够让人困惑了，那就等等看下周三的局面吧。
Original English **>>**: That's right. If you think it's confusing now, just wait until next Wednesday.
### 留下来还是离开：以色列人的存在主义困境 **>>**: 太棒了。大卫，我们之后可能还得请你再回节目来。 除了局势极其混乱且令许多人困惑之外，正如我们提到的，我们知道这次选举对人们来说具有深刻的生死存亡意义。我想在对话的最后谈谈一件美国人会觉得似曾相识的事情——美国也是一个高度分裂的国家，重大事件在其中扮演着类似罗夏墨迹测试的角色，而在以色列听起来也是如此：人们如何看待内塔尼亚胡的成败以及他自10月7日以来的作为，完全取决于人们原本持有的立场偏好。 我很想知道，你认为这样一场关乎生死存亡的选举在尘埃落定之后，如果结果并非选民所愿，会让选民走向何方？
Original English **>>**: Terrific. Well, we might end up calling you back on the show, David. Besides the fact that it's very messy and confusing to a lot of people, as we mentioned, we know that this election feels very existential to people and I just want to end our conversation by talking about something that's going to feel sort of familiar to folks in the United States, which is also a deeply divided country where major events have served as sort of Rorschach tests, which is how it sort of sounds like in Israel where people see Netanyahu as a success or failure and the things that he's done since October 7th, depending on kind of the perspective they were coming from to begin with. And I just sort of wonder where you think an election like this that is so existential leaves voters when the results are in, if the results are not the ones that they wanted.
**>>**: 是的，这里的人们——尤其是那些对现任政府极为不满的人——充斥着对绝望的讨论，认为国家正在坠落悬崖。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, people here, certainly those who are unhappy with this current government, there's a lot of talk about despair, about the idea that the country's headed over a cliff.
**>>**: 嗯。
Original English **>>**: Mhm.
**>>**: 很多人已经离开了以色列。获取另一个国家的第二本护照已经成为一股巨大风潮。以色列历来是一个净移民流入国，随着世界各地犹太人的归化而不断增长；而在过去几年里，离开的犹太人数量超过了新抵达的人数，这真的令人震惊。有些人表示想留下来抗争，另一些人则在认真考虑坐上飞机一去不返。我认为外界深感担忧的是：在分歧如此巨大、对立如此激化的情况下，哪怕诞生了新政府，究竟会发生什么？新政府真的能弥合创伤吗？内塔尼亚胡及其盟友会心平气和地交出权力吗？这个国家历史上曾发生过政治暴力。 政治暴力会死灰复燃吗？接下来会发生什么？局势可能正在步入一段黑暗时期。然而尽管如此，在走廊的另一侧以及内塔尼亚胡的支持者内部，则弥漫着一种凯旋主义情绪，认为这是一个千载难逢的契机：这是一个右翼国家，这是巩固并彻底完成对权力机构全面掌控的机会，而长期以来这些机构一直由左翼残余势力、自由主义阵营或是旧有的阿什肯纳兹精英阶层把持。
Original English **>>**: A lot of people have left Israel. There's a huge trend to get a second passport for another country. The net migration, which has always been into Israel, it's been growing with immigration of Jews from around the world, the last couple of years more Jews have left than have arrived and it's really striking. Some people say they want to stay and fight. Others are really talking about getting on a plane and never looking back and I think there's a lot of fear about what could happen given that things are so divided and so heatedly divided, even if there is a new government. Could that government really heal? Will Netanyahu and his allies go quietly from power? There's been political violence in this country before. Will it whip up? What happens next? It It could be entering a dark time. Now, having said that, on the other side of the aisle and within Netanyahu's supporters, there's a feeling of triumphalism, the chance to really This is a right-wing country, and this is the chance to cement and to really complete the takeover of the institutions of power that were for so long still held by, you know, holdouts from the left or from, you know, the liberal world or from the the old Ashkenazi elite.
**>>**: 这真的很有意思，因为以色列面积如此之小。这确实让人感到事关存亡。换句话说，当我们在这次对话中提到“生死存亡”时，我们讨论的是对国家人口结构的重塑，并可能催生出一个规模或许更小、但立场却更加强硬的国家。
Original English **>>**: It's really interesting because Israel is such a small country. I mean, it does actually feel existential. Like, when we have said existential in this conversation, we are talking about a reshaping of the demographics of the country and potentially creating a country that is maybe smaller, but much more hardline.
**>>**: 是的，确实如此。还有另一件事需要记住：那些在以色列正依据大选走向而考虑或谈论离开的人，并不清楚去到哪里境遇就一定会更好。正如他们每天在报纸上读到的那样，反犹主义在全球范围内呈抬头之势。即便不再生活在以色列，作为一个以色列人也并不轻松。这让我想起了不久前在以色列版《周六夜现场》上的一个精彩短剧：场景在机场……
Original English **>>**: Yeah, we are. And there's just one other thing to bear in mind about, you know, all these people in Israel who are contemplating or talking about leaving depending on how the election goes, it's not clear where they would go that things would necessarily be better. As they are reading in their newspapers every day, anti-Semitism is on the rise around the world. It's not easy to be an Israeli, even if you're not living in Israel anymore. And, you know, I'm just reminded of this great skit on Israel's version of Saturday Night Live a while back where, you know, it's at the airport,
**>>**: 阿里。
Original English **>>**: Ali.
**>>**: 珍妮弗！真不敢相信我们竟然在这里相遇。
Original English **>>**: Jennifer. I can't believe this is where we meet.
**>>**: 两个老朋友不期而遇，彼此诉说着外面的局势变得有多么糟糕。
Original English **>>**: And two people, old friends, run into each other and they compare notes about how things have just gotten terrible.
**>>**: 你知道我们犹太人，如果历史教会了我们什么……
Original English **>>**: You know us Jews, if history has taught us anything
**>>**: 那就是何时该离开。
Original English **>>**: when it's time to leave.
**>>**: 太危险了。我必须逃离那里。我再也受不了了。
Original English **>>**: It's dangerous. Like I had to get out of there. I couldn't take it anymore.
**>>**: 是啊，我们继续生活在这里已经不再安全了。
Original English **>>**: Yeah, it's no longer safe for us to live here.
**>>**: 你是指那里。
Original English **>>**: You mean there.
**>>**: 哪里？
Original English **>>**: Where?
**>>**: 纽约。
Original English **>>**: New York.
**>>**: 等一下。你是说你现在正准备回以色列？你疯了吗？
Original English **>>**: Wait a second. You're telling me you're coming to Israel now? Are you crazy?
**>>**: 等等，你正要搬去纽约？现在？你疯了吗？
Original English **>>**: Wait, you're moving to New York? Now, are you crazy?
**>>**: 结果发现，一个人正要回以色列，另一个人正要离开以色列。所以，你选吧，哪个更糟？
Original English **>>**: Turns out one is heading back to Israel and one is leaving Israel. So, you know, pick them. Which is worse?
**>>**: 好吧，祝你在以色列过得愉快。那里简直是地狱。
Original English **>>**: Okay, enjoy Israel. It's hell.
**>>**: 呃，祝你在纽约玩得开心。那里是一场噩梦。
Original English **>>**: Uh, enjoy New York. It's a nightmare.
**>>**: 呃。
Original English **>>**: Uh.
**>>**: 祝你好运。
Original English **>>**: Good luck.
**>>**: 所以，本质上这就是当前的困境。
Original English **>>**: So, that's the dilemma, basically.
**>>**: 是的，对许多以色列人来说：如果不是这里，又能去哪里？
Original English **>>**: Yeah, for a lot of Israelis, it's if not here, where?
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
**>>**: 大卫·哈尔芬格，非常感谢你。
Original English **>>**: David Halbfinger, thank you so much.
**>>**: 谢谢你，蕾切尔。
Original English **>>**: Thank you, Rachel.
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
### 今日其他要闻 **>>**: 我们稍后就回来。以下是今天您还需要了解的其他要闻。
Original English **>>**: We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today.
**>>**: 你如此高度评价我的总统——特朗普总统是人道主义者。先生，您也是一位人道主义者吗？对此我深表敬意。我赞赏您，并再次感谢您。
Original English **>>**: You talk so much about my my president President Trump being humanitarian. You are you are are you humanitarian also, sir? And I salute that. I commend you and I thank you again.
**>>**: 特朗普总统的特使史蒂夫·维特科夫（Steve Witkoff）在圣彼得堡向弗拉基米尔·普京总统大加赞赏，感谢这位俄罗斯领导人释放了一名被关押4年多的美国人质——美国国务院此前称该指控纯属捏造。[音乐] 在此次释放之前，特朗普上周曾直接呼吁普京允许现年74岁的教师斯蒂芬·詹姆斯·哈伯德（Stephen James Hubbard）返回美国。[音乐] 俄罗斯曾指控哈伯德为乌克兰雇佣兵，并判处他在劳改营服刑6年多。 另外，据美国官员及其他了解讨论情况的人士透露，美国和以色列已经制定了在中期选举后再次打击伊朗的计划。[音乐] 打击目标可能包括伊朗的能源基础设施、核设施以及导弹和无人机武库。
Original English **>>**: Lavishing praise on President Vladimir Putin, President Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff [music] thanked the Russian leader in St. Petersburg for releasing an American hostage held for more than 4 years on what the State Department called fabricated charges. [music] The release came after Trump made a direct appeal last week to Putin to let the 74-year-old teacher Stephen James Hubbard return to the United States. [music] Russia had accused Hubbard of being a Ukrainian mercenary and sentenced him to more than 6 years in a penal colony. And the US and Israel have developed plans to strike Iran again after [music] the midterm elections, according to US officials and other people briefed on the deliberations. The targets would likely include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal.
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
**>>**: 今天的节目由里基·诺维茨基（Ricky Novetsky）和斯特拉·谭（Stella Tan）制作，米歇尔·邦贾（Michelle Bondja）协助。由MJ·戴维斯·林恩（MJ Davis Lynn）[音乐]和佩奇·考威特（Paige Cowett）编辑。配乐来自丹·鲍威尔（Dan Powell）、罗恩·内米罗夫（Rowan Nemirow）和黛安·黄（Diane Wong）。 音频工程由克里斯·伍德（Chris Wood）负责[音乐]，主题曲由Wonderly创作。 特别鸣谢亚拉·巴尤米（Yara Bayoumi）。
Original English **>>**: Today's episode was produced by Ricky Novetsky and Stella Tan with help from Michelle Bondja. It was edited by MJ Davis Lynn [music] and Paige Cowett. It contains music by Dan Powell, Rowan Nemirow, and Diane Wong. It was engineered [music] by Chris Wood and our theme music is by Wonderly. Special thanks to Yara Bayoumi.
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
**>>**: [音乐]
Original English **>>**: [music]
**>>**: 以上就是今天的《The Daily》。我是蕾切尔·艾布拉姆斯。明天见。
Original English **>>**: That's it for The Daily. I'm Rachel Abrams. See you tomorrow.