---
author: The Ezra Klein Show
date: '2026-11-07'
guest: ''
layout: post.njk
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvYKx-USiZQ
speaker: The Ezra Klein Show
tags:
  - electoral-strategy
  - populism
  - political-realignment
  - voter-mobilization
title: 从得州到南方：民主党在选举中的竞选策略、民粹主义与联盟重组
summary: 节目讨论了民主党在得克萨斯、佐治亚等地的选战突破。候选人结合反科技寡头与腐败的民粹主义议题、道德价值观叙事及全线参选协同效应，在南方及铁锈带拓展了跨党派吸引力。
insight: ''
draft: true
series: ''
category: politics-society
area: society-thinking
project: []
people:
  - Michelle Goldberg
  - James Talarico
  - Donald Trump
  - Gina Hinojosa
  - Jon Ossoff
  - Abdul El-Sayed
  - Adam Hamilton
companies_orgs:
  - The New York Times
  - Democratic Party
  - Republican Party
products_models: []
media_books:
  - Good People
  - The Feast of the Goat
  - The Man Who Loved Dogs
status: evergreen
---
<!-- chunk 1/8 -->

### 民主党在得克萨斯的胜选与基层动能

这次选举涌现了众多非同寻常的民主党竞选活动。不可否认，这在一定程度上得益于特朗普引发的浪潮，但要在如此多的选区冲过终点线，民主党人必须派出恰当的候选人，而且必须在截然不同的地方采取非常迥异的竞选方式。我想用一期节目的时间，探讨一下他们的一些竞选方式，以及这能揭示出从这次选举中崛起的民主党将呈现何种面貌、民主党在进入下一次选举时会吸取怎样的教训。你已经能感受到民主党内部开始出现派系内讧的苗头。但我认为，周二获胜的各场竞选之间的共同点，远比它们之间的分歧更加耐人寻味、更具启发性。我的同事米歇尔·戈德堡（Michelle Goldberg），也是我们《纽约时报》的专栏作者，在过去一年里报道这些不同的竞选活动，做了非常出色的工作。她亲赴得克萨斯、密歇根、缅因等众多地区，实地体察选举在基层的真实氛围。正因如此，她带来了这些极具质感的现场细节——那还是在这些策略能否奏效尚不明确的时候，在民主党浪潮、更不用说蓝色海啸是否真能成型还完全不明朗的时候。所以，我现在想请她来到节目中，聊聊到底是什么策略奏效了、她当时看到了什么，以及这些观察如何让她理解眼下从这场选举中走出的民主党。她现在来到了我们节目中。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
This election was full of so many extraordinary [music] Democratic campaigns. Lifted, yes, by a wave that kind of Trump set into motion, but to get over the finish line [music] in so many places, Democrats had to run the right candidates and they had to run in very, very different ways in very different [music] places. And I want to spend an episode looking at some of the ways they ran and what that [music] can reveal about the Democratic party that will emerge out of this election, the lessons Democratic Party will take going into the next election. There's already like you can feel these efforts [music] at factional infighting beginning among Democrats. Uh but I think what is uniting the campaigns that won on Tuesday is a lot more interesting and a lot more revealing than the differences between them. My colleague Michelle Goldberg, also an opinion columnist here at the New York Times, has [music] done amazing work over the past year covering these different campaigns, going to Texas and Michigan and Maine and so many other places to actually [music] see what the elections felt like on the ground. So she brings all this [music] texture from when it wasn't clear if these strategies would work out. It wasn't clear if a democratic wave to say nothing of a blue tsunami would actually build. So, I want to have her on the show now to talk about what actually worked, what she saw then, and what that allows her to understand now [music] about the Democratic party that is emerging out of this election. She joins me now. [music] [music]
</details>

米歇尔·戈德堡，欢迎来到节目。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
Michelle Goldberg, welcome to the show.
</details>

>> 谢谢邀请我。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Thanks for having me.
</details>

>> 真是意义重大的一周。我想先从得克萨斯谈起，你对此做过大量报道，而且我认为这里正是核心所在——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> So, big week. [laughter] I want to begin with Texas, which you covered extensively and I think is the heart
</details>

>> 既解释了为什么这次选举——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> of both why this election
</details>

>> 感觉像是一场地震，而且不仅仅是感觉像，实际上就是一场将在很长一段时间内重塑政治格局的地震。民主党人是如何赢下得克萨斯的？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> feels like and more than feels like really is like an earthquake that will reshape the political landscape for a long time. How did Democrats win Texas?
</details>

>> 嗯，我的意思是，我认为，你看，显然如果没有唐纳德·特朗普，他们是不可能做到的。唐纳德·特朗普在得克萨斯吸引了一批以墨西哥裔美国人为主的新选民，但随后他又彻底恐吓了他们。所以这是原因的一部分，但同时我也认为詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）是一位非常非凡的候选人。他在很早的时候就敏锐地发现了一些苗头。我的意思是，当我去采访报道他时，他还是参议院初选里的劣势方。但即便是在那时，我认为他对得克萨斯人到底在寻找什么就已经有了非常清晰的洞察，那就是人们对整天充斥着愤怒已经感到无比厌倦。他们厌烦了——你知道，他总会说：“我受够了被告知要去恨我的邻居。”

一方面，正如他所谈论的那种“爱邻如己”的政治，一种在右翼在某种程度上已经极端极化、甚至反对同理心这一概念本身的时刻所展现的友善政治。与此同时，他也明确指出了一个敌人，而且这个敌人在某种程度上具有凝聚大家的作用，对吧？他谈论亿万富翁的方式，与伯尼·桑德斯谈论亿万富翁的方式并没有太大区别。不过我认为不同之处在于，他往往非常具体地针对科技亿万富翁。他会谈到，得克萨斯是数据中心建设的重要聚集地。该州农村地区的人们痛恨这些数据中心，因为他们眼睁睁看着它们，觉得它们碍眼，而且有时候人们觉得这些设施正在毁掉自己的生活。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Well, I mean, I think, you know, look, I don't they couldn't have done it obviously without Donald Trump. Donald Trump got a bunch of new voters among um mostly [clears throat] Mexican-American people in Texas and then he absolutely terrorized them. So that's part of the story, but also I think you know James Telerico was a phenomenal candidate. Um [clears throat] and he identified something really early. I mean I when I when I profiled him, he was like the underdog in the Senate primary. And so, but even then, I think he had this very clear vision of what he thought people in Texas were going to be looking for, you know, that people were so tired of being angry all the time. They were so tired of, you know, he would always say, "I'm tired of hating my being told to hate my neighbor."

It was on the one hand, you know, as he talked about this politics of loving your neighbor, this politics of like kindness at a time when, you know, the um the right had kind of polarized against the very conception of empathy. Um and at the same time, he also identified an enemy and an enemy that kind of was in its own way uniting. Right? the way he talks about billionaires is not that different from the way Bernie Sanders talks about billionaires. Um I think with the difference that he is often talking very specifically about tech billionaires. You know he talks about you know t Texas is a major um center of the data center buildout. people in the rural part of the state hate them because they're they see them and their eyes sores and you know and sometimes they people feel like they're ruining their lives.
</details>

>> 它们噪音很大。比如你去和当地人聊，他们晚上根本无法入睡，说那噪音就像是在杀死他们的牲畜，他们想搬走，但又卖不掉自己的房产，因为他们的房产价值已经一落千丈。所以这是一类人群。然后还有一些人纯粹觉得施工带来了巨大的不便。这毁掉了他们的景观。他们原本搬到那里，并没想到自己会搬进工业区，对吧？也许他们当初赞同唐纳德·特朗普说要让腹地重归工业化，但他们没想到他指的是就在他们自家后院。所以有这个因素，但此外还有一种普遍弥漫的反感情绪，针对所有这些科技大佬——他们宣称：“我们正在重塑未来，要么跟上，要么被淘汰。顺便说一句，我们也有可能会毁灭世界，而且到头来还得由你们买单，对吧？”为了一个你认为自己能从中受益的行业做出牺牲是一回事；而为了一个加密货币矿场之类的东西做出牺牲，完全是另一回事。所以所有这些因素交织在了一起。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> They're loud. Like you talk to people who can no longer sleep at night who say that the noise is like killing their livestock, you know, and they want to move but they can't sell their property cuz their property value has um fallen through the floor. So that's like one group of people. Then there's just people for whom the construction is like a huge inconvenience. It's ruining their views. It's, you know, they kind of moved out to, they didn't think they were moving into industrial areas, right? Maybe they were in favor of Donald Trump saying he was going to re-industrialize the heartland. They didn't think he meant like their backyard. Um, so there's that, but then there's also just, you know, this sort of ambient resentment of all of these tech bros who are saying, "We're remaking the future, you know, get on board or be left behind. And by the way, there's a chance we're going to destroy the world and, you know, and and you're going to pay for it, right? Because and so, you know, it's one thing to make sacrifices for an industry that you think you're going to benefit from. It's another to make sacrifices for like a crypto mine." Um and so you know so all these things come together.
</details>

>> 不要问加密矿场能为你做什么，而要问你能为加密矿场做什么。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Ask not what the crypto mind can do for you but what you can do for the crypto [laughter] mind.
</details>

>> 对，没错。所以我认为——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Yeah. Exactly. So I think
</details>

>> 有时候对人工智能也确实有这种感觉。不要问AI能为你做什么，而要问你能为AI做什么。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> actually feels like that way with AI sometimes. Ask not what AI can do for you but ask what you can do for AI.
</details>

>> 没错。我是说，这多半时候有点像萨姆·奥尔特曼的态度。然后另一方面，共和党那边有极其令人厌恶的肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton）。尽管我隐约觉得，换作约翰·科宁（John Cornyn）可能也会输。我认为这是得克萨斯非常耐人寻味的一点，因为在选举前，人们对此已经有了一定的了解。塔拉里科在某种程度上是一位非常优秀的候选人。这里不得不说乔·罗根（Joe Rogan）也起到了一定作用。正是罗根邀请塔拉里科上节目，并且——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Right. I mean that is kind of Sam Alman's attitude half the time you know and then on the other side you have Ken Paxton who is uniquely loathome. Although I I suspect that maybe John Cornin would have lost also. Well, this is I think one of the really interesting things about Texas because there was a story that I think people were fairly clued into before the election. Telerico is an excellent candidate in a way. You got to give Joe Rogan some credit here. It was Rogan inviting Terico on and then
</details>

>> 对他赞不绝口，我认为这让许多民主党人开始觉得，也许塔拉里科的那套打法确实能在——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> you know lavishing him in praise that made I think a lot of Democrats think maybe Taller Rico's thing actually works on,
</details>

>> 民主党真正需要争取的那类选民身上奏效。接着特朗普介入，确保帕克斯顿成为候选人。这就变成了一位极其出众、亲切温和的民主党候选人，去对阵一位丑闻缠身的共和党人。因此，如果我们看到的选举夜结果仅仅是詹姆斯·塔拉里科赢下了参议院席位，人们或许会说：“好吧，那是因为特朗普不受欢迎，帕克斯顿简直是个怪兽，而塔拉里科是个极其出色的候选人。”

但事实远不止于此。民主党赢下了五个重新划分的众议院席位中的四个。他们赢下了州长职位。他们在得克萨斯州众议院取得了巨大的斩获。对手那边可不全都是丑闻缠身的共和党人。我的意思是，在本周之前，格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott）根本不被视为一个容易被击败的共和党人。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> you know, the kind of people Democrats need to actually win over. And then Trump intervenes, make sure Paxton is going to be the nominee. You've got this very, very talented, nice Democratic candidate running against a scandal plagued Republican. And so if we had ended up with an election night where James Telerico won for Senate, might say, "Okay, Trump is unpopular. Paxton is like a monster [laughter] and you know, Telerico is an excellent candidate."

That's not what happened. Democrats won four of the five redistricted house seats. They won for governor. They had huge gains in the Texas House. And so that wasn't all scandal plagued Republicans on the other side. I mean, Greg Abbott wasn't considered a highly vulnerable Republican before this week.
</details>

>> 所以这包含两个不同的层面，对吧？一方面，针对格雷格·阿博特，存在着强烈的怨恨情绪。当你听说这种怨恨时，你往往很难判断它到底有多大程度只是个别现象。比如我在吉娜·伊诺霍萨（Gina Hinojosa）的竞选集会上遇到了不少“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）的选民。她在竞选广告里还用到了其中一位，对吧？她的一则广告里就有一位参加过1月6日国会山事件的人。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> So there's two different parts of that, right? So on the one hand, Greg Abbott, there was huge resentment. And when you hear about this resentment, you never really can understand how like um anecdotal it is, you know, like I was meeting a bunch of MAGA voters at Gina Henos's events. You know, she put one of them in her ad, right? He had a commercial with somebody who had been at the capital on January 6th.
</details>

>> “我参加了1月6日的集会。我是个坚定的保守派，但我无法支持州长格雷格·阿博特。格雷格·阿博特完全被亿万富翁和大财团收买了。”他们对数据中心感到怒不可遏，同时他们对教育代金券也感到极度愤怒。我认为这在许多地方或许是一个隐蔽而未被充分察觉的议题。但对于生活在私立学校不多、却感觉自己的公立学校正被抽走资金的家长们来说，这绝非无关紧要。人们对这件事极其愤怒，他们会谈到诸如下课后校车服务的削减，导致孩子们除非有专人接送，否则根本无法参加课外活动或体育运动。我在得克萨斯州朗维尤的一次集会上遇到了这个人。他是个典型的MAGA选民，超级保守。他告诉我，他上一次投票给民主党还是在90年代，而且仅仅是因为当时得克萨斯很多地方官员依然是民主党人。而现在，他不仅要投票反对格雷格·阿博特，甚至还出现在了吉娜·伊诺霍萨的集会上，原因就在于他曾是一名学区总监，对代金券政策感到怒火中烧，对代金券正在对他所在的具体学校体系造成的冲击感到极其愤怒。所以这是一方面的原因。另一方面纯粹在于，民主党确实在所有这些竞选中都派出了候选人——我认为你不能低估这一点——由严肃认真的民主党人出战所有这些席位，其重要性不容低估。因此，民主党从上到下全线派人参选——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> I was at the January 6th rally. I'm a staunch conservative, but I cannot support Governor Greg Abbott. Greg Abbott is bought and paid for by the billionaires and the corporations. And they were furious about data centers and they were furious about school vouchers. And I think, you know, this is maybe a kind of a sleeper issue in a lot of places. Um, but not for parents who live in places where there aren't a lot of private schools, but where they feel like their schools are being defunded. So, people are just livid about this, you know, and they would talk about like cutbacks in say after school busing so that people couldn't do extracurriculars or sports or anything unless they had someone to pick them up. Um, so I met this guy at a rally in Long View, Texas. He's like a MAGA voter, super conservative. Um, told me that the last time he had voted for a Democrat was back in the '9s, and that was only because back then lots of Texas local officials were still Democrats. Um, and he's, you know, not only is he voting against Greg Abbott, he's at the Gina Henosa rally, and it's because he was a school superintendent, but was so angry about vouchers, right? Was so angry about vouchers, what vouchers were doing to like his particular school system. So that's part of it. The other part is just the fact that you did have Democrats running in all these races which I think you can't like serious Democrats running in all these races which you can't understate. So you had Democrats running up and down the
</details>

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### 竞选班底与协同效应

联票候选人。我之前在去那边……在去那边之前见过吉娜，嗯，她人在纽约的时候我见到了她，嗯，[哼笑] 想更多了解她的选战情况。然后我对她说：你知道，得克萨斯州对民主党人来说总像露西抽走橄榄球一样，民主党人这次为什么要对这场选战抱有信心？嗯，她说，她说因为这次我们有一整张候选人名单，因为这次我们有一个团队。你知道，2018 年贝托参选并且比分非常逼近特德·克鲁兹的时候，当时并没有竞争激烈的州长竞选，他身边也没有那些势均力敌的选战。当时就只有他一个人。而所有这些不同的候选人都到场，你知道，办各自的活动，播各自的广告，做各自的拉票努力，这就会产生一种放大效应，并且会形成某种复合叠加。所以我觉得这种政党建设的一部分——不仅是说，我的意思是詹姆斯·塔拉里科确实是一位极其出色的候选人，但不仅是依靠一个明星候选人去把所有人拖过终点线，我认为这真的非常重要。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

ticket. When I met Gina in like before I went out there um I met her when she was in New York um [snorts] to kind of hear more about her race and I said to her, you know, why should Democrats believe when believe in this race when like Texas is always Lucy in the football for Democrats? Um and she said she said because this time we have a ticket like because this time we have a team. You know, when when Beto ran in 2018 and came pretty close to Ted Cruz, there wasn't a competitive campaign for governor, there weren't competitive races around him. It was just him. And there's like a magnifying effect of having all of these different candidates, you know, doing their own events, running their own commercials, doing their own get out the vote efforts and that that's kind of compounding. And so I think that part of like party building, not just I mean James Helerico is a fantastic candidate, but not just relying on one marquee candidate to drag everybody across the finish line was I think really important.
</details>

>> 我总认为政治包含内容和质感，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> I always think about politics as having content and texture
</details>

### 内容与质感：道德与宗教左翼的兴起

>> 你知道，你在这里描述的很多东西都是内容。你知道的学券制问题、人工智能数据中心问题、高物价，还有你知道的唐纳德·特朗普在……在伊朗干什么，对吧？那全都是内容。另外还有质感，也就是政治带给人们的感受是怎样的？而在得克萨斯这趟历程中，对我来说一件有趣的事是，民主党人实际上有两位非常、非常高调的候选人参加参议院初选，你知道，也就是塔拉里科和贾斯敏·克罗克特。克罗克特更偏向传统的斗士型候选人。嗯，你知道，正面迎击右翼，有所有这些走红的网络视频，她在里面，你知道，痛批共和党国会议员。而……而民主党人选择了塔拉里科，然后他可以说……我认为他给这场竞选注入了这种独特的质感，我想在这里播放一段他胜选演讲的音频片段。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> and you know a lot of what you're describing here is content. The you know voucher issue, the AI data centers issue, high prices, you know what is Donald Trump doing in in Iran, right? That's all content. And then there's texture, which is like how does politics feel to people? And and one interesting thing to me about the Texas arc here was Democrats actually had two very very high-profile candidates running in the Senate primary, you know, with Telerico and Jasmine Crockett. And Crockett is much more the traditional fighter candidate. Um, you know, takes on the right, had all these viral videos where she was, you know, lacing into Republican members of Congress. the the Democrats go for Teler Rico and and he sort of infuses I think the the campaign with this particular texture and I want to play a clip here of his victory speech.
</details>

>> “我的信仰教导我，爱是宇宙中最强大的力量。爱不是被动的。爱不是中立的。爱不是软弱的。爱要求我们挺身站在霸凌者与被霸凌者之间。爱要求我们直视邪恶之眼而不眨眼。那种爱从来都是对当权者的威胁。那种爱是革命性的。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> My faith teaches me that love is the strongest force in the universe. Love is not passive. Love is not neutral. Love is not weak. Love requires that we stand between the bullies and the bullied. Love requires that we look evil in the eye and not blink. That kind of love has always been a threat to the powers that be. That kind of love is revolutionary.
</details>

>> 那种爱是具有创造力的。恨是可预期的。恨是乏味的。恨不能降低我们的能源账单。恨教不会孩子阅读。恨建构不了未来，但凡是恨做不到的，爱都能做到。”

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

That kind of love is creative. Hate is predictable. Hate is boring. Hate can't lower our energy bills. Hate can't teach a child to read. Hate can't build a future, but what hate can't do, love can.
</details>

>> 我太喜欢这段了。我觉得写得真美。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> I love that. I think it's really beautiful.
</details>

>> 得克萨斯竞选的质感中发生着某种变化，而且不仅限于那里。我的意思是，我想你看到堪萨斯州的亚当·汉密尔顿——我们之后会谈到他，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> Something was happening in the texture of the campaign in Texas, not only there. I mean, I think you see with Adam Hamilton in Kansas who we'll talk about,
</details>

>> 你知道，你看到在埃尔莎身上也有一些，可以说出现了一种宗教左翼、一种更具道德感的左翼的抬头，用价值观的语言来交谈，但我认为塔拉里科尤其体现了这一点。你能步入特朗普时代吗？你能否不通过模仿特朗普来争取特朗普的选民，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> you know, you see it some with Elsa, there's like this rise of a religious left, a more moralistic left, John Of talking in the language of values, but I think Telerico in particular exemplified this. Can you step into the Trump era? Can you win over Trump voters, not by mirroring Trump,
</details>

>> 而是通过充当这种……

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> but by acting as this
</details>

>> 哎，他是反特朗普式的人物。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> Well, he's the anti-Trump.
</details>

>> 他是反特朗普式的人物。跟我多讲讲这方面的情况。这种……

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> He's the anti-Trump. Tell me a little bit about this side of it. This kind of
</details>

>> 所以，所以在我第一次见到塔拉里科的时候，民主党内部依然存在这样一种想法，就像是他们需要自己的特朗普，对吧？那大概是加文·纽森在卖护膝前后的时候。[哼笑]

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> So, so at the time that I first met Terico, there was still this idea in the Democratic party that like they needed their own Trump, right? That was I think around the time that Gavin Newsome was like selling knee pads. [snorts]
</details>

>> 至于塔拉里科，我的意思是，你知道，他的信仰是真实的。他曾是神学院学生。在告别政坛之后，他最终依然希望能成为一名牧师，嗯。他绝绝不是任何意义上的基督教民族主义者，事实上他是在极力反对基督教民族主义的过程中形成自己的政治理念的。他认为那是某种罪恶，嗯，而你知道，他身处一个基督教民族主义如此盛行的州。但他确实认为，随着民主党人变得越来越世俗化，他们丢失了某种东西，[清嗓子] 某种程度上丢失了一种用来谈论价值观、坚定信念以及那些让生命有意义的事物的语言，人们陷入了，你知道，某种原子化与绝望，至少对他而言，你知道，可以说是信仰在支撑着他，而我认为他觉得其他人……他绝不会试图把自己的信仰强加给别人，但他确实认为人们需要某种具有超越性的东西。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> And Ter Rico, I mean, you know, his faith is real. He was a seminarian. He still eventually hopes to be a pastor um when he's done with politics. He's ve he's not a Christian nationalist by any stretch of the imagination and in fact developed his politics like very much in opposition to Christian nationalism. Believes it's kind of sinful um and you know he's in a state where it's so preeminent. But he does believe that Democrats lost something as they became more secular and [clears throat] kind of lost a language to talk about values and conviction and the things that make life meaningful and people slipped into you know kind of atomization and despair and at least for him you know kind of it's faith is what what what keep what sustains him and I think he thinks that you know other people he would never try to push his faith on other people, but he does think people need something transcendent.
</details>

>> 不过，我觉得他在做法上非常有效的另一件事是，塔拉里科是一名进步派候选人。我的意思是，他也有在某些方面走向温和的时候，嗯，在，你知道的，石油与天然气上，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> Well, the the other thing though that I thought was very effective in what he did, Telerico is a progressive candidate. I mean, he had these points where he moderated um on, you know, oil and gas
</details>

>> 在，你知道的，某些跨性别议题上，在，嗯，移民问题上，并且可以说让自己在边境执法方面向前推进。但我认为有些人往往把政治看得太单一维度了，局限于你在全民医保上持什么立场之类。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> on, you know, certain trans issues on um immigration and and sort of like pushing himself forward on border enforcement. But I think people some just think too much about politics as a single dimension of like where do you stand on Medicare for all.
</details>

>> 人们对一个人是民主党还是共和党的印象，也在于他们是否有信仰，也在于他们住在哪里，还在于他们怎么说话、怎么穿戴。在我看来，塔拉里科在整个竞选期间一直在做的一件事，而且做得相当有效——许多候选人也以不同方式做到了这点——就是展现出“我和那些别的民主党人不一样。首先，我并不恨你”。我的意思是，最近流传着一段他在播客上的视频，当时被问到唐纳德·特朗普。他的开头是先列举自己喜欢唐纳德·特朗普的哪些地方。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> People's impression of what a Democrat or Republican is is also do they have faith is also where do they live is also how do they talk and how do they dress and and one thing Telerico seemed to me to be doing throughout the campaign quite effectively and many of the candidates did it in different ways was sort of saying I'm not like those other Democrats. First of all, I don't hate you. I mean, there's been a clip going around of him on a podcast asked about Donald Trump. Begins by listing what he likes about Donald Trump.
</details>

>> “我认为总统确实有明显的优势。我认为他能够以一种对人们来说清晰、简明且有力的方式进行沟通。在出现如此多僵局时，他愿意采取行动。嗯，他愿意为了兑现对人民的承诺而直接破墙而过。而且他有一种幽默感，我觉得这在政治中确实非常缺失。你知道，他身上有一种轻松洒脱的做派。”我认为那些就是某些值得称道的特质，对吧？那种……这是一种非常奥巴马式的政治风格，对吧？没有红与蓝，或者至少那些分野并不能完全定义我们。而这种层面的政治，我认为在特朗普时代某种程度上已经丢失了，因为特朗普让这么多人觉得这根本不重要。看到它强势回归，对我来说真的很耐人寻味。哎，这很有意思，因为这里面有两个维度，因为一方面，你知道，詹姆斯·塔拉里科并不是个软柿子，对吧？他也算不上是，嗯，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> I think the president does have clear strengths. I think he's able to communicate in a way that's clear and and concise and powerful to people. He is willing to take action when there's so much gridlock. Um, he's willing to just kind of bust through walls to deliver for people. And he has a sense of humor, which I I feel like is really missing in in politics. you know, he has a a light-hearted weight about him. Those are, I think, some of the redeeming qualities, right? That that kind of it's a very Obama-like politics, right? There's no red and blue or at least those divisions do not fully define us. And this has been a layer of politics that I think has sort of been lost in the Trump era because Trump made so many people feel it didn't matter. And it has been really interesting to me to see it roar back. Well, and it's interesting because there's there's two dimensions to this because on the one hand, you know, James Telerico is not a pushover, right? And he's not really a um
</details>

### 民粹主义与跨党派吸引力

那种软弱的中间派，你知道吧？我的意思是，詹姆斯·塔拉里科会告诉你，比如民主党已经忘记了该如何去战斗，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

a kind of squishy centrist, you know? I mean, James Helerico will tell you that like the Democratic Party has forgotten how to fight,
</details>

>> 你懂吧？他谈到掀翻桌子，对吧？他确实谈过。所以，并不是说他在主张民主党需要变得更具妥协性。更多的只是它需要更愿意去为了正确的事情而战，而正确的事情就是不受制约的亿万富翁企业权力、经济不平等之类的东西。所以这是一种类似于所有人联合起来反对亿万富翁的政治，这在数字上……嗯，比那种红蓝阵营划分要好得多。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> you know? He talks about flipping tables, right? He does. So, it's not that he's saying that the Democratic Party needs to be more consiliatory. It's more just that it needs to be more willing to fight for the right things and the right things are kind of unchecked billionaire corporate power, economic inequality, the like. So it's this kind of like everyone against the billionaires kind of politics which just is numerically um much better than a sort of like red blue divide.
</details>

他也能够切中这样一个事实：人们对愤怒感到极度厌倦，极度渴望某种替代方案，渴望一种能带来不同感受的政治构想。嗯，你知道，有许多非常保守的基督徒对他运用信仰的方式感到极其愤怒。他们在某些方面会说他是个异端。他们感受到的来自他的威胁，比来自世俗候选人的还要大。但是当我去参加他的造势集会时，我跟那些人交谈，他们会说，看到有这样一位把基督教信仰公然表露在外的民主党人，感觉是多么好；他们还会说，过去他们曾觉得民主党不对有宗教信仰的人开放，尽管塔拉里科，嗯，比起共和党人更能代表他们的信仰。所以是的，当时确实有一种感觉，得克萨斯选民中确实有一群人被他吸引到了这个政党中来。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

He also is able to speak to the fact that people are like so burned out on rage and so hungry for like an alternative and for the idea of a politics that can feel different. Um, you know, there's a lot of kind of very conservative Christians who were kind of apoplelectic about the way he used faith. They would say he was a heretic in some ways. they were more threatened by him than they were by a secular candidate. But when I would go to his rallies, I would talk to people who would say how good it felt that there was, you know, a kind of a Democrat who wore his Christianity on their slee on his sleeve and who would say that they had felt in the past like the Democratic party was not was not open to religious people even though Terico um represented their faith much more than the Republicans did. And so yeah, there was a sense there there was a population there was a group of Texas voters who felt drawn into the party by him.
</details>

>> 所以我确实觉得这种敞开胸怀的、“爱你的邻人”式的政治与民粹主义能够并存，这种呼吁的方式真的很耐人寻味。嗯，在希诺霍萨的竞选中你也真切地能看出来。我们稍微谈过一点关于数据中心的民粹主义，但我……我想放一段她在 8 月竞选巡回露面时的音频片段，当时她正在谈论数据中心。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> So I do think it's really interesting the way this openhearted love thy neighbor politics doesn't have to feel like this appeal coexisted with with populism. Um and you could really see it also in in Hinosa's campaign. We talked a little bit about the data center populism, but I I want to play this clip from an appearance she did on the campaign trail in in August where she was talking about the the data centers.
</details>

>> “这是保卫得克萨斯的战斗。这是……战斗

<details><summary>Original English</summary>

>> It is the fight for Texas. It is the fight
</details>

<!-- chunk 3/8 -->

在美国。这场斗争的核心在于，得克萨斯州究竟会不会成为一个属于人民、为了人民的得克萨斯。我们需要一位能够捍卫人民权利的州长，一位能够取消那些危及我们家中饮用与生活用水合同的州长。这是常识。我们需要回到过去的时代。回到民选领导人顺从人民意愿，而不是顺从有钱势力和亿万富翁意愿的时代。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
 in America. It is the fight about is this going to be a Texas that is by and for the people. And we need a governor who will defend the rights of the people, who will cancel contracts that jeopardize our water that we need to drink and live in our homes. It is common sense. We need to get back to a time. Back to a time when our elected leaders did the bidding of the people and not the moneyed interests and not the billionaires.
</details>

>> 我记不清是你说的还是她在接受你采访时说的，提到人工智能让人们产生了一种生活正在失控的感觉，对吧？也就是出现了一种无序状态。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> There's something I can't remember if you said it or she said it in an interview with you where she talked about AI contributing to a feeling people had that their lives were coming out of control, right? That there was disordering.
</details>

>> 那么，她究竟是如何建立起那种民粹主义的呢？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> So like how did she like build that populism?
</details>

### 得州的政治重组与民粹主义

嗯，我想，你知道，她常说文化战争已经结束了，对吧？我想我一开始对此是有点怀疑的。比如我不知道你是否能单方面声称，美国政治中这个处于核心地位的分裂根源已经不再重要。但确实有一种感觉，当人们在直接环境中都感受到如此直接的威胁时——无论是在他们的紧邻环境中，在他们孩子的学校未来会变成什么样上，还是在这些亿万富翁告诉他们工作正在消失、他们的世界可能会消失时——这种文化战就让人感觉有点厌倦了。而且在某些方面，埃隆·马斯克搬到得克萨斯并在很大程度上让自己成为当地共和党的代言人，这也起到了一定作用[轻哼]。在某些方面，她以及我觉得德利科（Delerico）更是如此，他们看起来往往既是在对抗肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton），也是在对抗埃隆·马斯克。但接着，她让人们相信这会是她的施政重点，对吧？并不是说她必然在走中间路线，你知道，所以她会说：“我依然坚持我的信念，但我们在这些事情上无法达成共识，所以我们要去做好那些边缘层面的、我们所有人都能达成共识的事情，比如确保发生流产的妇女能在医院得到救治。但真正重要的，是这些亿万富翁不受约束的权力。”我也认为，比如作为一个中产阶层偏上的人，拿我自己来说，虽然我不是摇摆选民，但如果去想我现在觉得谁具有威胁性，那就是埃隆·马斯克，对吧？就是那些科技新贵（tech bros）。他们看起来不仅是不平等的推动力量，更是初生极权主义的推动力量。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
Well, I think, you know, she would often say like the culture wars are over, right? And I think I was a little bit skeptical of that going in. like I don't know if you can just kind of unilaterally say that this um central source of division in American politics is no longer relevant but there is a sense that they become that it becomes kind of tired when people feel so directly threatened you know kind of in both in their immediate environment in what what their kids schools are going to look like in these billionaires telling them that their jobs are disappearing that their world might disappear where it helped [snorts] in some ways that Elon Musk moved to Texas and made himself the face in a lot of ways of the of the Republican party there. Um, you know, in some ways she often seemed and I think Delerico even more so often seemed like he was running as much against Elon Musk as against um Ken Paxton. But and then she convinced people that that was going to be her priorities, right? not that she was necessarily [clears throat] moderating, you know, so she would say, "I still believe what I believe, but like we're not going to get consensus on this, so we're going to do the, you know, the things around the edges that um that we can all agree on, like making sure that women who are having miscarriages are treated in hospitals. But what really matters is the kind of unchecked power of these billionaires. I also think that, you know, there's a kind of an upper middle class person, take myself, um, not that I'm a swing voter, but if I think about who do I find threatening now, it's Elon Musk, right? It's like the tech bros. They seem to be like the forces of not just inequality, but incipient totalitarianism.
</details>

>> 而且他们也是文化斗士。这也值得指出，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> And they are culture warriors. It's also worth noting,
</details>

>> 对吧？他们是文化斗士。而且你知道，他们也是这届总统任期和共和党背后的那种势力。我以前在其他文章中也写过这点。你知道，很多很多年来，民主党人一直在为失去白人工人阶级（而且不仅是白人工人阶级）而感到哀叹，对吧？他们想找回某种富兰克林·罗斯福式的联盟。他们希望带回工会的政治力量，但同时在很多情况下，民主党又是受过良好教育的中产阶层偏上人群的党派，这部分人在很长一段时间里对硅谷感到非常非常惬意，对吧？所以很长一段时间以来，硅谷都被视为某种民主党的大本营[轻哼]，而那些对技术在自己工作和未来中所扮演的角色感到满意且乐观的人，曾是民主党联盟的重要组成部分。现在的民调中，人们把共和党视为精英主义政党。几年前可不是这样，对吧？人们——而且原因也显而易见，因为你看到了唐纳德·特朗普和这些亿万富翁，还有他那种像卡里古拉式的万圣节派对之类的东西。但是你[轻哼]知道唐纳德·特朗普一直都是这么一个极其俗气、颓废的人物，但他能在文化上与工人阶级的一部分群体产生共鸣，这一点压过了那些问题。同样压过那些问题的，而且我认为这点往往被忽略了，就是他们把他视为阶级叛徒。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> right? And they're culture warriors. and they are, you know, the sort of um the forces behind this presidency and the Republican party. And I've written this in other instances before. You know, Democrats have been sort of um bemoning their kind of loss of the white working class and not just the white working class for many many years, right? And they sort of they wanted to bring back a sort of FDR coalition. and they wanted to bring back, you know, the political power of unions, but also being the party in many cases of the educated upper middle class that for a long time was very very comfortable with Silicon Valley, right? So for a long time, Silicon Valley was seen as a kind of democratic stronghold [snorts] and people who felt like comfortable and optimistic about the role of technology in their jobs and the future um were a big part of the democratic coalition. People now in polls see the Republican party as the elitist party. That was not true a few years ago, right? people and it's kind of obvious why that is because you see Donald Trump and these billionaires and his like you know kind of Caligula like Halloween parties and stuff but you [snorts] know Donald Trump was always this extraordinarily goddy and decinent figure but the fact that he was kind of culturally in tune with the work with parts of the working class overrode that as did and I think this gets lost the fact that they saw him as a class traitor.
</details>

对吧？他们把他看作一个见识过体制内部并且打算摧毁体制的人，而不是一个只想钻进体制好捞取眼前一切的人。而且你知道，这在筹款方面给民主党人造成了麻烦，因为很多这类平台都被敌对势力掌控着；但这同样创造了一个促成可能重组的跨时代机遇。如果你回溯到2016年唐纳德·特朗普获胜后，当时民主党内存在一种特定的解读，认为这是某个走向消亡的旧政治联盟的回光返照。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
right? They saw him as someone who had seen the inside of the system and was going to blow it up as opposed to just someone who wanted to get inside there so he could like grab everything in sight. And you know, so again, this has created a problem for Democrats in terms of fundraising, in terms of, you know, having kind of hostile forces own a lot of these platforms, but it has also created this like kind of generational opportunity for a possible realignment. If you go back to 2016 after Donald Trump wins, there's a certain category of Democratic interpretation which is this is the last gasp of like a dying old political coalition.
</details>

但在2020年，特别是在2024年，他开始在西裔选民、亚裔美国选民，以及在某种程度上在黑人选民中取得了非常显著的进展，在2024年的年轻选民中当然也是如此。西裔群体中的强势表现一直是他对选民结构所做出的最重要且最不寻常的改变，也是民主党人被证明对他产生误判的最显著方面——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
But then in in 2020 and particularly in 2024, he begins making really significant inroads with Hispanic voters, with Asian-American voters, um to some degree with black voters, certainly in 2024 with young voters. The Hispanic strength was always the most important and unusual change he was making to the electorate and the most significant way in which Democrats have turned out to be wrong about him
</details>

>> 以及在对抗他的正确方式上产生了误判。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> and wrong about the right ways to to combat him.
</details>

### 边境郡选情与佐治亚州选举

>> 随后唐纳德·特朗普在2024年赢得执政权，基本上把整个移民事务都交给了斯蒂芬·米勒（Steven Miller）、格雷格·贝维诺（Greg Bevino）和克里斯蒂·诺姆（Christi Gnome）。在得克萨斯州的边境各郡，对比2024年总统大选的摆幅，随便列举几个：卡梅伦郡（Cameron County）向民主党摆动了44个百分点，伊达尔戈郡（Hidalgo）摆动49个百分点，韦布郡（Webb）摆动50个百分点。我是说，这些都是西裔人口占极高比例的边境郡。这里的内情不仅是像帕利科（Palico）展现的友善，或者希诺霍萨（Hinojosa）所谓的人工智能民粹主义，而且正如你所说，是西裔选民群体发生了巨大的倒向，对吧？这让像博比·普利多（Bobby Pulido）这样的人——他竞选众议员，是一位了不起的候选人，你知道他是那些社区里著名的歌手——他在一个特朗普胜出的选区里赢了25个百分点。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> And then Donald Trump won office in 2024, turned over the entire immigration portfolio basically to Steven Miller and Greg Bevino and Christy Gnome. And in the border counties of Texas, the swing versus like the 2024 presidential election, to just name a couple of these, Cameron County plus 44 swing to the Democrats. Hidalgo plus 49, Web plus 50. I mean, these are heavily Hispanic border counties. And part of the story here is not just like Palico's kindness or um Hinosa's you know AI populism but as you were saying a massive swing in the Hispanic electorate right leading people like Bobby Pledo who is running for the house this amazing like candidate you know well-known singer in those communities you know he wins by 25 points in a Trump district
</details>

>> 对吧？我的意思是，在某些方面那是最容易解释的，对吧？我想，回想起来，当时存在这样一种观念，认为随着国家变得更加多元化，民主党将拥有这种自动的人口结构优势，人们倾向于这一观点，对吧？我的意思是，我认为这可能是一直到2024年大选前对身份认同给予大量强调的底色，但是，人们能够对言语上的不敬视而不见是一回事，而有蒙面男子在亲属的工作场所强行把他们抓走则是另一回事，对吧？孩子们不敢去上学。我是说，人们感受到的恐慌程度极其深重。有一则报道我觉得没有引起太多国际关注，但这是我在得克萨斯时人们都在谈论的事情：有两名年轻人正准备去入伍。我是说，这真是那种编都编不出来的事情，对吧？这两名年轻人正准备去加入海军陆战队，他们是公民，却被美国移民及海关执法局（ICE）抓走并粗暴对待。这种冲突事件是人们亲眼所见，或者从他们认识的人那里听到的。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> right I mean in some ways that's the easiest to explain right I mean I think there was in retrospect the idea that as the country became more diverse, Democrats were going to have this like automatic demographic advantage and people leaned into that, right? I mean, I think that maybe that was like the substrate of a lot of emphasis on identity even going up to the 2024 election, but it's one thing for people to be able to look beyond kind of rhetorical disrespect, and it's another thing to have masked men grabbing your relatives off their job sites, right? Kids afraid to go to school. I mean, just the amount of terror that people were feeling. I mean, there was a story that I don't think got a lot of international attention, but it was something that people were talking about when I was in Texas, that there were two young guys on their way to enlist. I mean, these are the kind of things you can't make up, right? These two young guys on their way to enlist in the Marines and they they're citizens. They get picked up and roughed up by ICE. those kind of encounters or things that people were seeing firsthand or hearing about from people that they knew.
</details>

>> 如果你还不是《纽约时报》的订阅用户，[音乐]我们有个消息要告诉你。现在在《纽约时报》应用程序中，你在第一个月可以完全免费阅读时报内容，不受任何付费墙限制[音乐]。

那么，接下来我想转向佐治亚州，约翰·奥索夫（Jon Ossoff）在那里以18个百分点的优势大胜麦克·柯林斯（Mike Collins）。这原本被认为是一个岌岌可危的席位。奥索夫的这场胜利，我认为是这次选举中产生的重要话题之一。我想说，那并不只是某种爱邻如己的政治。[笑声]

在奥索夫与柯林斯之间的一场辩论中，这段视频剪辑我想大概是我在政治辩论中见过的最残酷的单一片段：

麦克·柯林斯和唐纳德·特朗普，他们仍然痴迷于推翻2020年大选结果。麦克·柯林斯依然认为2020年大选被窃取了。麦克·柯林斯支持唐纳德·特朗普推翻大选结果的企图，而且他想把你们纳税人的钱拿给那些在1月6日洗劫美国国会大厦的暴力暴徒和罪犯。麦克·柯林斯正在攻击你们的投票权。但考虑到麦克·柯林斯是个什么样的人，这并不令人意外。就是这个人，在大学校园里为一群用猴子叫声嘲弄黑人女性的年轻男子喝彩欢呼。如果约翰·刘易斯（John Lewis）今天从塞尔玛（Selma）游行到——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> If you're not a subscriber to the New York Times, [music] we have some news for you. You can now explore the Times for free without any payw walls at all during your [music] first month in the New York Times app.

So, I want to then shift over to Georgia where John Of crushed Mike Collins by 18 points. This was supposed to be an endangered seat. the OS of victory which I think has been one of the big stories that coming out of the election. I would say that was not just a politics of loving thy neighbor. [laughter]

Th this clip from one of the debates between OF and Collins is I think maybe the single most brutal moment I have ever seen in a political debate.

Mike Collins and Donald Trump, they're still obsessed with overturning the 2020 election. Mike Collins still believes the 2020 election was stolen. Mike Collins has supported Donald Trump's effort to overturn the election and he wants to give your tax dollars to the violent thugs and criminals who sacked the US capital on January 6th. Mike Collins is attacking your voting rights. But that's not a surprise when you consider who Mike Collins is. This is a man who cheered on a group of young men who were mocking a black woman on a college campus with monkey sounds. If John Lewis were marching today from Selma to
</details>

<!-- chunk 4/8 -->

Montgomery，迈克·柯林斯（Mike Collins）就会去抓警棍。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
Montgomery, Mike Collins would be grabbing a billy club.
</details>

>> 迈克·柯林斯就会去抓警棍。迈克·柯林斯在这期间就站在那里[笑]，就像只是低头看着他的文件。你和我——你报道过那场竞选活动。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Mike Collins would be grabbing a billy club. Mike Collins is standing there during this [laughter] like just like looking down at his papers. You and I you reported on the the campaign.
</details>

>> 你在那儿看到了什么？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> What did you see there?
</details>

>> 嗯，我是说，约翰·奥索夫（John Ossoff）在某些方面，我认为没有任何候选人能像他那样迎合“抵抗运动”（resistance）粉丝的喜好。嗯，部分原因只是这些选民群体不同，对吧？佐治亚州确实存在这样一种类似抵抗运动的选民群体，而在其他地方根本没有——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Well, so I mean John Oaf in some ways I don't think any candidate does quite so much like resistance fan service. Um and partly it's just these are different electorates, right? there is this kind of like resistance electorate in Georgia in a way that there just isn't in
</details>

>> 民权遗产，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> civil rights legacy,
</details>

>> 对吧？他成长的那座犹太教堂曾因拉比对民权的坚定承诺以及与马丁·路德·金的结盟而遭到炸弹袭击，对吧？他是约翰·刘易斯（John Lewis）的实习生。这里存在这样一种——你知道——历史悠久的黑人与犹太人联盟，嗯，这可以追溯到民权运动时期，而他深深植根于此，并且对此非常清楚。你在他的两次竞选中都看到了这一点。你看到他和拉斐尔·沃诺克（Raphael Warnock）基本上是搭档参选，而这一次他有点像是和凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯（Keisha Lance Bottoms）搭档参选。他能够——我认为非常成功地——既与在民权传统中长大的黑人选民对话，又与那些被2016年大选激进化的郊区女性对话。我是说，我只是想回顾一下。[哧鼻声] 2016年之后我的状态非常糟糕，而我第一次感到有一丝希望，是在我去了第六选区的时候，也就是约翰·奥索夫参加特别选举的地方。那里有所有这些女性，她们以前不过问政治，但拥有各种来自像家长教师协会（PTA）以及——你知道——你作为郊区母亲所做事情的社会资本，她们突然间变成了政治狂热者。她们可以看着街区的地图说：“好吧，你知道，这个男的，他不会投民主党的票，但他的妻子可能会，而且她下班回家最早，所以那是我们必须去敲门的时候。”

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> right? He grew up in a synagogue that was firebombed because of the rabbis commitment to civil rights and alliance with Martin Luther King, right? He's an intern for John Lewis. there is this, you know, kind of historic black Jewish alliance um that dates back to the civil rights movement and that he is very much rooted in and very much cognizant of. You've seen it in both of his campaigns. You saw it in him and Raphael Waro basically running as a as a ticket and this time he kind of ran as a ticket with Kesha Lance Bottoms. He is able to speak like I think very successfully both to kind of black voters who grew up in the civil rights tradition but also to some of these suburban women who were radicalized by the 2016 election. I mean I just I just want to go back for a second. [snorts] I was in such a bad place after 2016 and the first time I felt like a teeny bit of hope was when I went to the sixth district which is where John Oaf was running in a special election and there were all these women who had not been political but had all this kind of social capital from like the PTA and you know the stuff that you do as a suburban mom and who all of a sudden became like political fiends. They could look at the map of the block and say like, "Okay, you know, this guy, he's not going to vote Democrat, but the wife might, and she gets home from work first, so that's when we've got to hit the door."
</details>

>> 我记得他对我说过，你知道，“我是站在这些女性的肩膀上。”尽管他没有赢得那场竞选，但显而易见的是，民主党最终翻转了那个席位，那也是他政治生涯的发端之地。因此我认为他一直理解这些非常愤怒的中年郊区女性，她们在佐治亚州的选民中非常非常重要。他还——你知道，我曾把他比作匈牙利的彼得·马扎尔（Péter Magyar）。那是我今年报道的另一场竞选，即匈牙利选举。在彼得·马扎尔身上你看到的是一种结合：你知道，有点像重新夺回匈牙利的民族认同，将自己裹在匈牙利国旗中，你知道，朗诵匈牙利诗歌，并且坚持不懈地紧咬欧尔班的腐败。约翰·奥索夫总是谈论海湖庄园黑手党。海湖庄园黑手党把美国的腐败推向了惊人的新高度。因此我认为，他做得如此有效的一点在于，过去很难让选民像——也许我认为他们应该做到的那样——去关心唐纳德·特朗普所有的威权掠夺行径。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> And I remember him saying to me, you know, I'm standing on the shoulder of these women. And he didn't win that race, but obviously that was like eventually a Democrat flipped that seat and that was the seat of his political career. And so I think he's always understood these kind of very outraged middle-aged suburban women who are very very important in the Georgia electorate. He also, you know, I've compared him to Peter Maguar in Hungary. That was the other race I covered this year was the Hungarian election. And what you saw with Peter Maguar was this combination of, you know, sort of like reclaiming Hungarian national identity, wrapping himself in the Hungarian flag, you know, reciting Hungarian poetry and just this relentless focus on Orban's corruption. John Oaf is always talking about the Mara Lago mafia. The Mara Lago mafia has taken American corruption to spectacular new heights. And so I think one of the things that he did so effectively is that in the past it's been hard to get voters to care as much as maybe I think they should about all of Donald Trump's like authoritarian depradations.
</details>

但约翰·奥索夫所做的，是将这些——这同样也是匈牙利发生的事情——将这些与你在自己生活中感受到的痛苦联系起来。这不仅在于他们正在让自己发财，而且他们是在牺牲你的利益来这么做。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
But what John Ozaf does is connect those and and this is also something that happened in Hungary. Connect those to the suffering you're feeling in your own life. It's not just that they're enriching themselves, but they're doing it at your expense.
</details>

>> 仔细想想这一点。当你在为医疗保险支付更多费用时，当你社区里的一家医院正在关闭时，迈克·柯林斯投票决定从你的口袋里、从你的社区里把那笔钱拿走，转而交给数据中心开发商。这就是问题所在，迈克。这不仅在于你雇佣了大半个“第三帝国”的人来充实你的国会办公室人员，也不仅在于你在网上推广新纳粹内容。而是在于你在掠夺你的选民来补贴你的捐赠者。我想知道，你是否会承诺投票废除你曾投票支持的那个数据中心税收骗局。我是说，我认为这极其典型地体现了他一方面能够对右翼提出这种全面的道德声讨，但[哧鼻声]另一方面又能将其与选民的赤贫化联系起来的方式。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Just think about this. When you are paying more for your health insurance, when a hospital in your community is closing down, Mike Collins voted to take that money out of your pocket and out of your community and give it instead to data center developers. And that's the problem, Mike. It's not just that you've hired half the Third Reich to staff your congressional office and you have promoted neo-Nazi content online. It's that you're robbing your constituents to subsidize your donors. I want to know if you will commit to voting to repeal that data center tax scam that you voted for. I mean, I think that that so exemplifies the way he's on the one hand able to make this like kind of sweeping moral case against the right, but [snorts] then again kind of connect it to the emiseration of the voters.
</details>

他确实对腐败感到愤怒。你知道，他——嗯，他的经历中很大一部分是他成为政治家之前是一名纪录片制片人，制作过关于腐败的纪录片，你知道，曾有与他共事的人因为在其中一部纪录片里的工作而遇害。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
He is really outraged by corruption. you know, he um like a big part of his story was that he was a documentarian before he was a um politician and made documentaries about corruption and you know had someone he worked with killed um for his work on one of those documentaries.
</details>

我——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
I
</details>

>> 我认为这是关于他的一个重要点，因为在你刚才给出的回答中，有两点我认为值得进一步引申一下。其一，是的，他没有打那种“好吧，我认为特朗普做了很多好事”的摇摆州式选战，对吧？那是一种策略，他去尝试也不会显得疯狂，但这不是他的做法。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> I think this is an important point about him because two things that are kind of in that answer you just gave that I think are worth drawing out a little bit. One is yeah he did not run a well I think Trump has done a lot of good things kind of purple state campaign right that is one move it would not have been a crazy move for him to try it's not what he did
</details>

>> 他之所以我认为在这次选举中成为民主党传达信息的一个如此[哧鼻声]重要的部分，是因为他展现了民主党人长期以来一直坚信、但此前未能破解门道的一点，那就是：特朗普的腐败本应是一个巨大的政治软肋。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> he became I think such [snorts] an important part of the Democratic message in this election because what he showed is something that Democrats had long believed but they couldn't crack the code on which is that Trump's corruption should be a tremendous political itical vulnerability.
</details>

这算不上什么新见解。[笑] 约翰·奥索夫——发生的事情是，奥索夫成为了那个能够将这种见解武器化的人——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
That is not like a new insight. [laughter] John Oaf, what happened was Oaf was the one who was able to weaponize the insight
</details>

>> 转化为连贯的、病毒式传播的、几乎令人无法招架的片段。我想在这里播放其中一段，我认为它展示了他能够做得如此出色的几点。听听这个：去年九月，哈萨克斯坦总统给唐纳德·特朗普打电话，说他想把钨矿开采权授予一家美国公司。紧接着下个月，埃里克和小唐纳德就在寻求这项采矿协议的美国公司获得了股份。6天之后——在埃里克王子和唐王子拿到股份6天之后——哈萨克斯坦宣布这家公司将获得据称是“世界上已知最大的未开发钨矿资源”。又过了几个星期，由他们父亲掌管的美国政府[哧鼻声]拨出了你们纳税人的16亿美元，用于资助并贷款支持他们在哈萨克斯坦的采矿项目。这一切发生的同时，你们却在为汽油、食品杂货和医疗保健支付更多费用。而这仅仅是冰山一角。来自外国王子和寡头的数十亿美元。世界各地的内部房地产交易。对特朗普支持的公司的纳税人资助。听着，底线就在这里：如果你卷入了其中的任何一件事，明年你都将在美利坚合众国国会面前举起右手宣誓说出真相、全部真相且唯有真相。愿上帝保佑你。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> into like consistent viral almost unanswerable clips. I I want to play one of them here that I think shows a couple of the things that he was able to do so well. Just listen to this. Last September, the president of Kazakhstan calls Donald Trump and says he wants to grant tungsten mining rights to an American company. And the very next month, Eric and Don Jr. get a stake in the American company pursuing the mining deal. 6 days later, 6 days after Prince Eric and Prince Dawn get their stake, Kazakhstan announces this company will get quote, "the largest known undeveloped tungsten resource in the world." Few more weeks go by and then the US government run by their father [snorts] sets aside 1.6 6 billion of your tax dollars to fund and finance their mining project in Kazakhstan. All this while you pay more for gas, for groceries, for healthcare. And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Billions from foreign princes and oligarchs. Sweetheart real estate deals all over the world. Taxpayer funding to Trumpbacked companies. And listen, here's the bottom line. If you're involved in any of this, next year you'll be raising your right hand and swearing to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. So help you, God, in front of the United States Congress.
</details>

>> 我认为，这就是为什么人们对奥索夫胜利的反应有所不同的原因。因为这不是在说，“看看我为佐治亚州的公路争取回了多少资金。”我认为对很多人来说，这感觉像是他们一直希望看到奏效并产生共鸣的反对特朗普的论据——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> This, I think, is why there's been something different about the reaction to Asso's victory. Because this is not, look how much money I brought back to Georgia for highways. I think this felt to many people like the case against Trump they had always wanted to see work and resonate
</details>

>> 产生共鸣不是在旧金山，不是在纽约市，而是在佐治亚州，在佐治亚州凭借这套论据赢得了18个百分点的胜利——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> resonating not in San Francisco not in New York City but in Georgia where rode that case to an 18point victory
</details>

>> 对，所以实际上，我是说，约翰·奥索夫在选民服务方面也很出色，对吧？那是其潜在的基础部分。不过是的，我是说，我认为这让人感到舒畅的部分原因在于，从某种程度上讲，这感觉就像是——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> right so actually I mean and John Ov is kind of amazing at constituent service right that's that's the underlying part of it but yeah I mean I think part of why this has been cathartic is that in some ways this feels like
</details>

### 竞选反响与演讲风格

>> 这是人们第一次以看似正常的方式对唐纳德·特朗普做出反应的选举，对吧？这有点像我们曾预期他们在2016年和2018年以及所有这些选举中对唐纳德·特朗普做出的反应，但当时他们并没有。这就好比，你知道，现在有了这种大众的厌恶感，而他能够将其引导出来。我认为他的技能之一——而且我认为这再次可以追溯到他作为纪录片制作人的背景——就是他知道如何利用这些极其枯燥具体的细节。对吧？要围绕哈萨克斯坦的钨矿开采权去构建一部戏剧是很难的，但他知道如何围绕它去讲述一个故事，并使那个故事具有象征意义。因为在谈论唐纳德·特朗普的腐败时，另一个挑战在于——你知道，要一次性将这一切全部记在脑海里，有点超出了人类意识的范畴。因此，他能够找到这些极其引人注目的例子，以这种凝练、抓人的方式去讲述它们，并把人们带入其中。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> the first election where people have responded to Donald Trump in what seems like a normal way, right? It's kind of how we expected them to respond to Donald Trump in 2016 and 2018 and all these elections when they didn't. It's like, you know, now there is this kind of popular revulsion that he was able to channel. I think one of his skills and this again I think goes back to his background as documentary filmmaker is that he knows how to take these like really wonky details right it's like hard to build a drama out of like tungsten mining rights in Kazakhstan but he knows how to tell a story about that and to make that story symbolic because the other challenge in talking about Donald Trump's corruption is that it is you know it's sort of beyond the realm of human consciousness to keep it all in mind at one time and So he's able to find these like extremely salient examples and talk about them in this like condensed gripping way and bring people along with it.
</details>

>> 他有着这种非常老派的演讲风格。你知道，你能从中听到黑人教会的风格，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> He has this very old school ortorial style. You know, you hear the black church in it,
</details>

>> 但你也能从中听到他们过去教导的那种方式

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> but you also just hear the way they used to teach
</details>

<!-- chunk 5/8 -->

演说风格。

[笑声]

嗯，而且他和——奥巴马就像——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
elecution.

 [laughter]





Well,

 and

 he

 and

 and

 Obama

 like
</details>

>> 奥巴马，但我当时看着他和奥巴马，而且我看着他们的——奥巴马其实确实有一种远不如

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Obama,

 but

 I

 was

 watching

 him

 and

 Obama





and

 I

 was

 watching

 their

 Obama

 actually





does

 have

 a

 much

 less
</details>

>> 奥索夫（OF）那么正式的演说风格。奥索夫有一种自觉的正式结构。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> formal

 style

 of

 speech

 than

 OF

 does.

 Of





has

 a

 self-consciously

 formal





construction.
</details>

>> 我觉得几乎每个政治时代都具有同样的结构，那就是某人通过做一些不同寻常的事赢了，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Every

 political

 era

 has

 almost

 like

 I





think

 the

 same

 structure

 which

 is





somebody

 wins

 doing

 something

 unusual
</details>

>> 然后大家都会试着效仿他们一阵子。比如唐纳德·特朗普以其极其即兴、兜圈子、迂回漫谈的修辞风格。你知道，2024年的播客选举，你能去和好友们一起玩吗？[嗤笑]

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> and

 then

 everybody

 tries

 to

 ape

 them

 for





a

 little

 while.

 you

 know,

 Donald

 Trump





with

 his

 incredibly





offthecuff

 weaving,

 looping,

 discursive,





you

 know,

 rhetorical

 style.

 You

 know,





the

 podcast

 election

 of

 2024,

 can

 you

 go





hang

 with

 the

 besties?

 [snorts]
</details>

>> 然后每个人都尝试那么做一阵子。加文·纽森和他的播客，他们全都在做播客。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> And

 then

 everybody

 try

 to

 do

 that

 for

 a





bit.

 You

 know,

 Gavin

 Newsome

 and

 his





podcast,

 you

 know,

 they're

 all

 doing





podcasts.
</details>

>> 然后约翰·奥索夫登场了，说话就好像他身处18世纪一样。而这其实让人耳目一新，就像，哦，你写了一篇演讲稿，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> And

 then

 here

 comes

 John

 Of





talking

 as

 if

 he's

 in

 the

 18th

 century.





And

 it's

 refreshing

 actually

 like,

 oh,





you

 wrote

 a

 speech,
</details>

>> 对吧？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> right?
</details>

>> 然后你回头去检查并编辑了这篇稿子，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> You

 then

 went

 back

 over

 it

 and

 you





edited

 this,
</details>

>> 对吧？他确实是，而且你知道，他自己写演讲稿，这在某种程度上挺不寻常的。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> right?

 And

 he

 does

 and

 he's,

 you

 know,





he

 he

 writes

 his

 own

 speeches,

 which

 is





somewhat

 unusual.
</details>

>> 他是一个非常认真、克制的人，他不想做那种

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> He's

 like

 a

 very

 kind

 of

 earnest

 and





reserved

 person,

 you

 know,

 he

 doesn't





want

 to

 do

 like
</details>

>> 是的。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Yeah.
</details>

>> 那种随便、即兴地在播客上聊天的感觉。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> kind

 of

 casual

 off-the

 cuff

 kind

 of





hanging

 out

 on

 a

 podcast.
</details>

>> 没人听说过他的健身日常。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Nobody

 has

 heard

 about

 his

 workout





routine.
</details>

>> 对，没错。哪怕当他们问起时。另一位——另一位经历了“奥索夫式增肌”的候选人。你听说过——我是说我们听说过其他候选人的健身日常，因为那是模仿的一部分——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Yeah,

 exactly.

 Even

 when

 they

 asked.





Another

 another

 candidate

 with

 the

 OV





bulkup.

 You've

 heard

 of

 I

 mean

 we've





heard

 about

 other

 candidates

 workout





routines

 because

 that

 was

 part

 of

 the





mimicking

 the
</details>

>> 我记得阿卜杜勒·赛义德（Abdul Sayed）好像让《纽约时报》的一位记者在他锻炼时对他进行了采访。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Abdul

 say

 I

 think

 had

 an

 had

 someone





from

 the

 times

 I

 believe

 interview

 him





while

 he

 was

 working

 out.
</details>

>> 是的，他也和我们这么做过。就像他在后台保留了很多。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Yeah,

 he

 did

 that

 with

 us

 on

 too.





It's

 like

 he

 holds

 a

 lot

 backstage.
</details>

>> 他一点点放出自己的片段。这对我来说在风格上很有意思，在几乎所有人都汲取了“自律是危险的”这一教训的时代，他却在做着某种自律的事情。

嗯，而且他对此有一套理论，你知道这里面有多少只是一种合理化解释，因为我认为他确实属于克制和内向的人。但他同时也有一套理论，那就是不时刻出现在人们面前也是一种力量，比如你稍微退后一点，那么当你真正介入时，

人们会更愿意去倾听，或者它会——你知道，他对注意力的理论在某种程度上与人们在过去这么多年里一直在学习的注意力理论截然相反。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> He

 dribbles

 out

 his

 clips.

 It

 just

 it's





interesting

 to

 me

 stylistically

 he

 was





doing

 something

 disciplined

 in

 an

 era





when

 almost

 one

 of

 the

 lessons

 people





had

 taken

 was

 discipline

 is

 dangerous.





Well,

 and

 he

 has

 a

 theory

 of

 this

 and





you

 know

 how

 much

 of

 this

 is

 just

 kind





of

 a

 rationalization

 because

 I

 think

 he





is

 a

 sort

 of

 reserved

 and

 introverted





person.

 But

 he

 also

 has

 a

 theory

 which





is

 that

 there's

 power

 in

 not

 being

 in





people's

 face

 all

 the

 time

 that

 like

 if





you

 sort

 of

 hang

 back

 then

 when

 you

 do





intervene





people

 are

 more

 ready

 to

 listen

 or

 it





will

 get

 you

 know

 his

 theory

 of





attention

 is

 sort

 of

 like

 the

 opposite





of

 the

 theory

 of

 attention

 that

 people





have

 been

 learning

 for

 the

 last

 however





many

 years.
</details>

>> 是的。他们应该想多看到你，而不是想少看到你。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Yeah.

 They

 should

 want

 more

 of

 you,

 not





want

 less

 of

 you.
</details>

>> 对。没错。就像，是的，你也许应该稍微含蓄一点。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Right.

 Exactly.

 That

 like

 Yeah,

 you





should

 be

 maybe

 like

 a

 little

 bit

 koi.
</details>

### 南方选情与政治版图的重组

>> 那么，佐治亚州，我是说，向民主党倾斜了18个百分点，在州长选举中归属了民主党；德克萨斯州，

你也有——虽然这些并不是你亲临现场的选战，但我认为当指针开始在南卡罗来纳州摆动时，你就明白了那一晚将会发生一些不同寻常的事情。天哪，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> So,

 Georgia,

 I

 mean,

 going

 plus

 18

 for





the

 Democrats,

 going

 to

 the

 Democrats

 in





the

 governorship

 Texas,





you

 also

 had,

 and

 these

 were

 not

 races





that

 you

 were

 on

 the

 ground

 for,

 but

 I





think

 you

 understood

 the

 night

 was

 going





to

 be

 something

 different

 when

 the





needle

 began

 swinging

 on

 South

 Carolina.





God,
</details>

>> 有一段时间，我都不敢相信。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> for

 a

 while,

 I

 didn't

 believe

 that.
</details>

>> 我是说，那令人振奋。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> I

 mean,

 that

 was

 that

 was

 healing.
</details>

>> 我——[笑声]

我还没准备好相信那个。密西西比州，看起来民主党要赢得那个席位了。

当我想到美国政治中如今有什么不同时，这将是一种持久的不同。我并不是说南方已经发生了政党重组（realigned）。人们总是在谈论政党重组。我更多地将这视为一种解组（de-alignment）。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> I

 was

 [laughter]





I

 was

 not

 ready

 to

 believe

 that.





Mississippi.

 It

 looks

 like

 the

 Democrats





are

 are

 going

 to

 win

 that

 seat.





When

 I

 think

 of

 what

 is

 now

 different

 in





American

 politics,

 it

 will

 be





sustainably

 different.

 I'm

 not

 saying





the

 South

 has

 realigned.

 People

 always





talk

 about

 realignments.

 I

 think

 of

 this





more

 as

 a

 deignment.
</details>

>> 所发生的事情是，南方现在对共和党而言变得不再可靠了。他们必须去防守它。民主党将有机会去展示，当我们治理德克萨斯州时是怎样的，当我们治理佐治亚州时是怎样的，当你拥有一位南卡罗来纳州参议员、一位密西西比州参议员时是怎样的。还有就是共和党南方之墙的崩溃。我是说，我们过去甚至从未称其为“红墙”，因为你根本不会真正想到要去进攻它。

[笑声]

但现在整个政治版图又重新变成了一张由各个州构成的地图，对吧？如果人们要在德克萨斯州和堪萨斯州展开争夺，甚至很难想象2028年的总统选举会是什么样子——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> What

 has

 happened

 is

 the

 South

 has





become

 unreliable

 now

 for

 the

 Republican





party.

 They

 have

 to

 defend

 it.

 Demog





going

 to

 have

 an

 opportunity

 to

 say

 this





is

 what

 it

 is

 like

 when

 we

 govern

 Texas,





when

 we

 govern

 Georgia,

 when

 you

 know





you

 have

 a

 South

 Carolina

 senator,

 a





Mississippi

 senator.

 And

 just

 the





collapse

 of

 the

 Republicans

 southern





wall.

 I

 mean,

 we

 never

 even

 called

 that





the

 red

 wall

 because

 you

 wouldn't

 even





have

 really

 thought

 to

 attack

 it.





[laughter]





But

 now

 the

 entire

 political

 map

 is

 it's





just

 a

 map

 again

 of

 states,

 right?

 It's





like

 it's

 hard

 to

 imagine

 it's

 hard

 to





even

 imagine

 what

 the

 2028

 like





presidential

 looks

 like

 if

 people

 are





fighting

 in

 Texas

 in

 Kansas
</details>

>> 更不用说候选人招募会如何进行了。我的意思是，我认为民主党过去并没有像人们想象的那样，真正去思考该在南卡罗来纳州招募谁。最终他们确实得到了一位出色的候选人，但其中很多人都是——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> to

 say

 nothing

 how

 the

 candidate





recruitment

 goes.

 I

 mean

 I

 think

 one





thing

 the

 Democratic

 party

 was

 not

 doing





in

 the

 way

 you

 might

 have

 thought

 was





really

 thinking

 about

 who

 do

 you

 recruit





in

 South

 Carolina.

 You

 know

 it

 ended

 up





getting

 a

 great

 candidate

 but

 a

 lot

 of





these

 were
</details>

>> 是自己挺身而出的人。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> were

 people

 who

 step

 forward

 themselves.
</details>

>> 自己挺身而出的人。我是说，斯科特·科伦（Scott Colom）在密西西比州的故事太有意思了。也许值得花一分钟说说他是怎么最终参加这场竞选的，因为他本可以拥有另一份工作，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> People

 who

 step

 forward

 themselves.

 I





mean,

 the

 Scott

 Column

 story

 in





Mississippi

 is

 is

 is

 so

 interesting.





Maybe

 it's

 worth

 saying

 for

 a

 minute

 how





he

 ends

 up

 in

 this

 race

 because

 he

 could





have

 had

 another

 job,
</details>

>> 对吧？他被乔·拜登任命为联邦法官，结果遭到了密西西比州参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯（Cindy Hyde-Smith）的阻挠，随后他决定在选举中向她发起挑战，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> right?

 He

 was

 appointed

 to

 the

 federal





bench

 by

 Joe

 Biden

 and

 he

 is

 blocked

 by





Mississippi

 Senator

 Cindy

 Hyde

 Smith

 and





then

 he

 decides

 to

 challenge

 her

 in

 the





election
</details>

>> 而现在他击败了她，赢得了她的参议院席位。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> and

 now

 he's

 beat

 her

 for

 her

 Senate





seat.
</details>

>> 我们[笑声]觉得——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> We

 [laughter]

 think
</details>

>> 我们觉得，我们觉得，我们觉得。不过是的，南方对于共和党来说失守了，这意味着什么？所以，我的意思是，看，显然在某些方面我认为我们仍在消化这一切，因为这只是——我想不出还有什么时候，我们有这么多的政治设想在这一夜之间就被彻底粉碎了。在米特·罗姆尼落败之后，曾出现过一种尝试，试图去正视在一个多元种族的民主国家中成为一个保守政党意味着什么。

然后唐纳德·特朗普在某种程度上把这彻底打破了。

但是随着唐纳德·特朗普即将出局，他们将不得不重新开始思考这个问题，对吧？

因为，比如[嗤笑]，像J·D·万斯这样的候选人——我认为他在共和党内与白人民族主义力量的结合甚至比唐纳德·特朗普还要紧密——如果密西西比州的选票从一开始就不能被视为理所当然，他怎么可能在密西西比州这样的州获胜呢？你知道，与此同时，也许马可·卢比奥对密西西比州而言是更好的候选人，但对于反战的选民群体来说，他也许算不上一个更好的候选人。所以，他们的联盟就在一夜之间蒸发了。

嗯，但对民主党来说，也面临着所有这些问题，因为你将开始听到来自一些更偏左翼候选人的诉求，而其中一些诉求将会非常受欢迎，我认为这同样值得牢记在心。对吧？我认为有很多事情既能满足某些左翼基本盘选民，同时又可能

有助于民主党将自身巩固为一个全国性政党。而我们把民主党视为一个全国性政党，似乎也已经有段时日没有这种感觉了。然后还有另一部分，与其说是关于信息传达之类的，不如说只是关于

投资、建设，以及认真对待在那些地方你需要一个强大的民主党。

[音乐]

我认为这随后就会延伸到在民主党更有准备展开争夺的地方会发生什么，对吧？也就是中西部的一连串选举。你在参议院席位上面临着竞选争夺，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> we

 think

 we

 think

 we

 think.

 But

 yeah,





what

 does

 it

 mean

 that

 the

 South

 has





fallen

 for

 the

 Republicans?

 So,

 I

 mean,





look,

 obviously

 in

 some

 ways

 I

 think





we're

 still

 metabolizing

 this

 because





it's

 just

 I

 can't

 think

 of

 another

 time





when

 like

 so

 many

 of

 our

 political





assumptions

 have

 just

 been

 exploded





overnight.

 There

 was

 kind

 of

 an

 attempt





after

 Mitt

 Romney

 was

 defeated

 to

 reckon





with

 what

 it

 means

 to

 be

 like

 a





conservative

 party

 in

 a

 multi-racial





democracy.





And

 then

 Donald

 Trump

 kind

 of

 blew

 that





up.





But

 they're

 going

 to

 have

 to

 start





thinking

 about

 it

 again

 with

 Donald





Trump

 being

 on

 the

 way

 out,

 right?





Because

 like

 [snorts]

 how

 does

 a





candidate

 like

 JD

 Vance,

 you

 know,

 sort





of

 even

 more,

 I

 think,

 aligned

 with





white

 nationalist

 forces

 in

 the





Republican

 party

 than

 Donald

 Trump.

 How





does

 he

 win

 in

 a

 state

 like

 Mississippi





if

 Mississippi's

 votes

 can't

 just

 be





taken

 for

 granted

 from

 the

 outset?

 You





know,

 and

 then

 at

 the

 same

 time,

 you





know,

 maybe

 Marco

 Rubio

 is

 a

 better





candidate

 for

 Mississippi,

 but

 maybe

 not





a

 better

 candidate

 for

 an

 anti-war





electorate.

 And

 so,

 you

 know,

 they

 just





like

 their

 coalition

 has

 evaporated





overnight.

 Um,

 but

 there's

 also

 all

 of





these

 questions

 for

 the





Democratic

 party

 because

 you're

 going

 to





start

 hearing

 demands

 from

 some

 of

 the





more

 left-wing

 candidates

 and

 some

 of





those

 demands

 are

 going

 to

 be

 really





popular

 and

 I

 think

 that

 again

 is

 worth





keeping

 in

 mind.

 Right?

 There's

 a

 lot

 of





things

 that

 I

 think

 will

 both

 satisfy





certain

 left-wing

 base

 voters

 and





potentially





help

 the

 Democratic

 Party

 solidify





itself

 as

 a

 national

 party.

 And

 it's





kind

 of

 been

 a

 while

 since

 we've





understood

 the

 Democratic

 Party

 as

 a

 as





a

 national

 party.

 And

 then

 there's





another

 part

 of

 it

 that

 is

 less

 about





like

 messaging

 and

 such

 and

 is

 also

 just





about





like

 investment

 and

 building

 and

 taking





seriously

 that

 you

 need

 a

 strong





Democratic

 party

 in

 those

 places.





[music]





And

 I

 think

 it

 then

 gets

 into

 kind

 of





what

 happens

 in

 the

 places

 Democrats

 are





more

 prepared

 to

 contest,

 right?

 Which





is

 like

 the

 kind

 of

 like

 the

 string

 of





elections

 in

 the

 Midwest.

 So

 you

 had





Senate

 seats

 open

 um

 for

 for

 contest

 in
</details>

>> 在俄亥俄州，谢罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）除其他议题外，主要凭借一场强烈的反数据中心竞选活动获胜；在明尼苏达州，佩吉·弗拉纳根（Peggy Flanagan）为民主党赢得了胜利，民主党对那一席并不是那么担心；在密歇根州，那里成了一个非常引人瞩目的关键席位，因为它是全国少数几个共和党认为自己或许有翻盘机会的席位之一。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Ohio

 where

 Sher

 Brown

 won

 running

 uh





again

 a

 very

 anti-data

 center

 campaign





among

 other

 things

 in

 Minnesota

 where





Peggy

 Flanigan

 won

 for

 the

 Democrats.





Democrats

 weren't

 that

 worried

 about





that

 one.

 um

 in

 Michigan

 where

 that





became

 a

 very

 marquee

 seat

 because

 it





was

 one

 of

 the

 few

 seats

 in

 the

 country





where

 Republicans

 thought

 maybe

 they

 had





a

 pickup

 opportunity.
</details>

>> 来自密歇根州的民主党参议员加里·彼得斯（Gary Peters）决定在这个选举周期退休。你在密歇根州做了大量的实地报道，现在大家差不多都知道结果如何了。但在谈到埃尔赛义德（El-Sayed）之前，我其实想先聊聊海莉·史蒂文斯（Haley Stevens）。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Um

 Gary

 Peters,

 a

 Democratic

 senator





from

 Michigan,

 had

 decided

 to

 retire

 the





cycle.

 You

 did

 a

 bunch

 of

 reporting

 from





from

 Michigan

 and

 and

 now

 kind

 of





everybody

 knows

 how

 it

 went.

 But

 but





before

 we

 get

 to

 Elsad,

 I

 actually

 want





to

 talk

 about

 Haley

 Stevens.
</details>

>> 嗯。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Mhm.
</details>

>> 她在那是那场选举中民主党建制派的人选？我一直不太确定具体原因。舒默招募了她，惠特默州长在初选临近结束时为她背书，希望能助她一臂之力。她是谁，又是怎么在竞选最后阶段转而支持共和党人的？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Who

 was

 the

 Democratic

 establishment





choice

 in

 that

 election?

 I

 was

 never





totally

 sure

 why.

 Um,

 but

 Schumer





recruited

 her.

 Governor

 Whitmer

 endorsed





her

 kind

 of

 towards

 the

 end

 of

 that





primary

 hoping

 to

 push

 her

 over

 the

 the





edge.

 Who

 was

 she

 and

 and

 how

 did

 she





end

 up

 endorsing

 the

 Republican

 in

 the





final

 days

 of

 the

 race?
</details>

>> 好吧。我对查克·舒默介入其中部分选战一直持批评态度。当然也有一些选战中他起到了非常、[嗤笑]非常重要的作用，对吧？在说服谢罗德·布朗再次参选方面，他发挥了非常重要的作用。而在我看来，海莉·史蒂文斯的主要特质——考虑到事情后来的发展，这很讽刺——就是她是一个具有团队精神的人，而且她就是一个传统的、稳健的民主党人，在党内拥有很多赞助者支持，她不仅普遍亲——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Okay.

 So,

 I've

 been

 critical

 of

 Chuck





Schumer's

 intervention

 in

 some

 of

 these





races.

 There

 was

 obviously

 races

 where





he

 was

 really,

 [snorts]

 really





important,

 right?

 He

 was

 really





important

 in

 like

 convincing

 Sherid





Brown

 to

 run

 again.

 I

 mean,

 Haley





Stevens,

 as

 far

 as

 I

 can

 tell,

 her

 main





attribute,

 and

 this

 is

 ironic

 given

 how





things

 went

 down,

 was

 that

 she

 was

 a





team

 player,

 you

 know,

 and

 she

 was

 just





like

 a

 kind

 of

 normie,

 solid

 Democrat





who

 had

 a

 lot

 of

 patrons

 in

 the

 party,





was

 like

 not

 just

 kind

 of

 normally

 pro-
</details>

<!-- chunk 6/8 -->

### 密歇根州初选与候选人风格

以色列，但出于某种奇怪的原因对以色列极其狂热，因为她并不是犹太人，或者说虽然她说自己可能会皈依犹太教，呃，我一直觉得那是个巨大的错误。我从来都不明白，如果你不希望——如果你不希望阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）成为候选人，无论是因为你在意识形态上与他不一致，还是你认为他存在选民接受度风险。我是说，马洛里·麦克莫罗（Mallory McMorrow）当时就在那儿啊。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>Israel, but incredibly passionately pro-Israel for kind of odd reasons because she's not Jewish or although she might become Jewish, she says, um, I always thought that was a huge mistake. I never understood why if you don't want if you don't want Abdul El Sayed to be the candidate either because you are like ideologically not in line with him or you think that he's a risk. I mean Mallalerie McMurro was right there.</details>

>> 是的，我很喜欢马洛里·麦克莫罗。我从来没搞明白建制派为什么倾向于支持斯蒂文斯（Stevens）。我也喜欢埃尔-赛义德，但我能理解出于胜选能力方面的担忧。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> Yeah, I like Mallerie McMurro a lot. I never understood why the establishment was moving towards Stevens. I like Elsa too, but I understood what the fears about him were forability reasons.</details>

>> 我一直很清楚这里发生了什么。斯蒂文斯除了你刚才提到的一些美以公共事务委员会（AIPAC）层面的因素外，她最初是在一个偏向特朗普的选区获胜的。她2018年和2020年——是的——的选举是在一个至少在当时是共和党+4（R+4）的选区。所以大家觉得她能够争取到特朗普的选民，而且每个人都习惯了密歇根州向来微乎其微的票数差距，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> I always understood what happened here. Stevens, in addition to to some of the apac dimensions you just mentioned, she had originally won in a Trumpy district. Her her 2018 and 2020 Yeah. elections were in a a district that at least at that point was R plus4. And so there's a feeling that she could win over Trump voters and everybody's so used to Michigan being these like super tiny margins,</details>

>> 但你看她在电视上的表现。你就会觉得她根本不是一个有感染力的候选人。不仅我觉得她像是，你知道的，不怎么能鼓舞人心或者没有魅力。而且我是说，你根本看不到她的竞选活动，对吧？比如我去密歇根州，想去参加一些她的活动。我知道我对她写过批评性报道，但我对很多人都写过批评性报道，而他们的新闻发言人仍然会告诉我他们在哪里竞选。当时的情况就是，或者说你作为一个普通公众去报名。她办的活动太少了，以至于作为一个普通公众——而不是被招募去充场面的人——你根本没法去见她。我是说，这太诡异了。我都不知道自己以前见没见过这种情况。她基本上就是难以接近。呃，你知道，而与此同时，阿卜杜勒·赛义德到处跑。马洛里·麦克莫罗到处跑。我认为马洛里·麦克莫罗吃亏在于她是那种“恰到好处”的温和折中型（Goldilocks）候选人。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> but you would watch her on TV. You would just wasn't an impressive candidate. It's not just I think that she's like, you know, kind of not super inspiring or charismatic. She's also I mean you could not see her campaign, right? Like I go to Michigan and I wanted to go to some of her events. I understand I wrote critically about her, but I write critically about a lot of people and their press people will still tell me where they're campaigning. Like there was so and there or you sign up as a member of the public. She did so few events where if you just as a member of the public as opposed to somebody who was like recruited to be there where you could go see her. I mean it was like it was it was bizarre. I don't know that I've ever seen anything like it. She just kind of was not accessible. Um you know and then meanwhile Abdul say is going everywhere. Mallerie McMurro is going everywhere. I mean I think Mallalerie McMurro suffered from being the sort of Goldilocks candidate.</details>

>> 是的。她介于两人之间。然后，你知道，一旦她退选，尤其是一旦她——我的意思是，我觉得选战一直很丑陋，但一旦变成两强对决，就变得格外丑陋。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> Yeah. She was sort of in between the two of them. And then, you know, kind of once she dropped out of the race, especially once she I mean, I think it was always ugly, but it became especially ugly once it became a binary campaign.</details>

### 建制派眼中的胜选能力与明星效应

>> 但这里是——我想说的是，我认为舒默（Schumer）在很多维度的衡量下最终做得很好，对吧？他们只是，你知道，在局势后半段给密西西比州投入了资金，当时人们还以为那可能完全是个疯狂的举动。我是说，他冒了一些险。他争取到了罗伊·库珀（Roy Cooper）。我觉得这里有意思的一点，同时也向我反映出民主党建制派需要更新其关于什么才使候选人具备胜选能力的认知的一点是，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> But this is I I want to say that I think Schumer ended up doing a good job on a lot of measures here, right? They just, you know, they put money to Mississippi late in the game when people thought that might be a completely crazy move. I mean, he took some risks. He got Roy Cooper. The thing that I thought was interesting here and reflected to me a way in which a Democratic establishment needs to update its sense of what makes a candidate electable</details>

>> 它不在乎也不筛选明星效应。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> is it does not care about and does not select for star power.</details>

>> 它不在乎也不筛选个人魅力。它不在乎也不筛选那些能在周围掀起真正基层运动的人。对吧。能让人们真正兴奋起来。但是埃尔-赛义德让人们极度兴奋。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> It does not care about and does not select for charisma. It does not care about and does not select for people creating an authentic movement around them. Right. People being genuinely excited. But Elsad was exciting the hell out of people.</details>

>> 是的。确实如此。而且担忧在于他既是一种动员型的候选人，也是一种反向动员型的候选人。他动员了自己的支持者，同时也动员了反对他的人，我认为这就是共和党人

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> Yeah. Absolutely. and the fear that he was both a kind of mobilizing and countermobilizing candidate. He mobilized his people and mobilized people against him, which is I think why the Republicans</details>

>> 觉得他们可能会赢的原因。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> thought they might win.</details>

>> 但我认为，长期以来存在一种——像是对密歇根州有那么多民主党人对埃尔-赛义德如此兴奋这一事实意味着什么——不愿去正视的态度。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> But there was, I thought, a sort of for a long time like a like an an unwillingness to grapple with what it meant that, you know, so many Democrats in Michigan were so excited about Elsa.</details>

>> 很多人关注那些不肯投给他的民主党人，哈利·斯蒂文斯就是其中之一。我认为我们在另一方也会看到类似甚至规模更大的情况。你知道，有些选民可能因为哈利·斯蒂文斯

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> There's been a lot of attention to the Democrats who wouldn't vote for him, Haley Stevens being one of them. I think we would have seen something similar and maybe even larger on the other side. You know, voters who wouldn't have voted for Haley Stevens because of her</details>

>> 对以色列的狂热支持而不会投给她。但有些经验教训很难总结，单纯是因为那种大势浪潮太高了，顺带裹挟了那么多人。比如埃尔-赛义德，一方面，埃尔-赛义德极其自信的时候会说他能赢七个百分点，这在当时看起来很荒谬。结果我认为他真的赢了七个点。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> passionate commitment to Israel. But there are some lessons that are hard to draw just because like the the tide was so high that it kind of carried so many people along. Like Elsa, on the one hand, Elsa when he was being really cocky would say he was going to win by seven and that seemed ridiculous. and I think he won by seven.</details>

>> 而且看起来那相对于整个选情的大盘来说，算是某种表现不及预期。因此很难从中直接得出结论。但我绝对认为——我是说我认为你在密歇根州能看到这一点。你在缅因州也绝对能看到，你知道，再次强调，击败苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）绝非小事，但你能感受到格雷厄姆·普拉特纳（Graham Platner）成为提名人时，与后来的气氛差异。你知道，我去参加了特洛伊·杰克逊（Troy Jackson）的一场活动，呃，我在缅因州有家人，当时在探亲。在那里顺便去了一场特洛伊·杰克逊的活动。你知道，他看起来是个很和善的人。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> And also that doesn't look like that's kind of an underperformance relative to the rest of the field. And so it's a little bit hard to draw direct lessons from it. But I absolutely think I mean I think you could see it in Michigan. You could definitely see it in in Maine, you know, and again, beating Susan Collins is no small thing, but you could feel the difference in energy between when Graham Platner was the nominee and when, you know, I went to a Troy Jackson event just um I have family in Maine and was visiting them. Went to a Troy Jackson event while I was there. You know, he seemed like a very nice man.</details>

>> 但他们没有普拉特纳活动上的那种活力，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> They didn't have the energy of the platinum event,</details>

>> 但是的，你完全能感觉到——是的。就是你完全能感觉到那种泄气感。呃，是的，我是说，民主党或许没有——它本该针对氛围感进行优化。我是说在经历了奥巴马的经历之后，但是，呃，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> but yeah, you could just feel Yeah. There's just like you could feel the sort of like deflation. Um, and yeah, I mean, the Democratic Party maybe is not in the It should be optimized for vibes. I mean, after the Obama experience, but um,</details>

>> 但它长期以来并没有这样做。是的。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> but it wasn't for a long time. Yeah.</details>

>> 而且在某些方面现在可能依然没有。我想放一段埃尔-赛义德胜选演说的片段，因为我认为这体现了他具体在密歇根州是如何竞选的。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> And it in some ways maybe still isn't. I want to play a clip of of Elsa's victory speech because I think it it it speaks to the way he specifically ran in Michigan.</details>

### 胜选演说与民粹主义路线

>> 我们谈到了一个更加光明、更宏大、更有希望的密歇根州。有一场人为制造的、由企业资助的广告宣传，旨在欺骗和分散注意力。

[欢呼声]

反对派没有试图团结我们来应对汽油或食品杂货的危机，而是决定试图分裂我们。起初，他们拿我的名字和我的信仰做文章，仿佛在说，你看，他有点与众不同。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> We spoke of a brighter, a bigger, more hopeful Michigan. There's an astrourfed corporatefunded advertising campaign built to deceive and distract.

[cheering]

Rather than try to unite us to contend with the crisis of gas or groceries, the opposition decided to try to divide us. At first, they pointed to my name and my faith as if to say, you know, he's a little different.</details>

>> 当这招不管用时，他们就试图搞株连问罪。而当那招也不管用时，他们便全力以赴投入了我们在有生之年所见过的最丑陋的竞选攻势之一。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> And when it didn't work, they tried to guilt me by association. And when that didn't work, they went all in on one of the ugliest campaigns we've seen in our lifetimes.</details>

>> 他们或许一直在拿我的名字和信仰做文章，但我们大家都清楚，我的名字和信仰并不是你加不起汽油的原因。并不是你买不起食品杂货的原因。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> They might have been pointing to my name and my faith, but we all know that my name and my faith aren't the reason you can't afford your gas. Not the reason you can't afford your groceries.</details>

>> 也不是你看不起医生的原因。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> Not the reason you can't see a doctor.</details>

>> 我想你在这里看到了。我是说，你基本上在我刚才播放的每个片段结尾都听到了类似的招式，就是不断把焦点拉回到——他们试图转移你的注意力，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> I think you see there. I mean, you heard a sort of similar move at the end of basically every clip I've been playing is this continuous bringing back to like they're trying to distract you</details>

>> 让你忽略你所清楚的事实，那就是所有东西都太贵了。从某种意义上说，埃尔-赛义德的竞选活动让我觉得具有重大意义的地方不在于，你知道，他是否稍微表现不及预期。他的表现并没有落后很多，对吧？所以他的表现对于一个密歇根州参议员候选人来说算是正常的。我认为你确实可以探讨他是否本可以多赢五个百分点。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> from what you know, which is that everything is too expensive. In a way, what struck me as significant about Elsa's campaign is not, you know, did he underperform by a little bit. He didn't underperform by a lot, right? So he had a kind of normal performance for a, you know, Michigan Senate candidate. I think you could sort of, you know, debate whether it could have been five points more.</details>

>> 在密歇根州这种地方，那可是举足轻重的。另一方面，你刚目睹了一位硬核民粹主义者——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> That's significant in a place like Michigan. On the other hand, you just saw like a hardcore populist</details>

>> 在有巨额资金投入、试图因其肤色、信仰和名字而将其边缘化/异类化的情况下——

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> with like a huge amount of money spent to other him for his skin color and faith and name</details>

>> 赢得了铁锈地带。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> win the rust belt.</details>

>> 是的。成功了。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> Right. It worked.</details>

>> 没错。那就是——我的意思是那就是一场豪赌，对吧？那是大考，即伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）党内派系有一套政治理论，那就是存在一种更偏工人阶级的联盟，你可以通过持续不断的民粹主义主张将其凝聚起来，而且你可以通过提高投票率来弥补你可能会失去的一部分郊区温和派。而这在这里奏效了。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> Right. That was I mean and that was the gamble, right? that that was the big test is that Bernie Sanders wing of the party has a theory of politics which is that this there's a kind of like more workingclass coalition that you can bring together with a relentlessly populist message and that you can kind of increase turnout to make up for maybe some of the like suburban moderates that you might lose. And it worked here.</details>

>> 这也是现实。我是说伯尼·桑德斯现在已经80多岁了。嗯。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> It's also a reality. I mean Bernie Sanders is in his 80s at this point. M</details>

>> 他在参议院并没有那么多显而易见的接班人。他在众议院有，比如AOC。他现在实际上在纽约市也有，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> he doesn't have all that many obvious successors in the Senate. He does in the house with AOC. He actually has it in you know the New York City multi now</details>

>> 但现在埃尔-赛义德进去了，可以成为这种政治主张在参议院的领军人物，当你把民主党视为一个“大帐篷”时，你知道。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> but but now Elsad comes in and is like a a can be a a champion for this politics there which you know when you think about the Democratic party is a big tent.</details>

>> 人们在谈论大帐篷时，往往想的是把帐篷的右翼向外拓展。你在堪萨斯州派谁参选？你在爱荷华州派谁参选？但这也意味着要为帐篷的左翼提供代表权，并在党内同样拥有这种创造性活力。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> People tend to talk about that and what they're thinking about is like the right side of the tent expanding. Who do you run in Kansas? Who do you run in, you know, Iowa? But it also means having representation for like the left side of the tent and having that kind of creative energy in the party as well.</details>

>> 我的意思是，我也许说得不对，但我想我们在阿卜杜勒·赛义德那里听得最多的——我猜想——会是扩大联邦医疗保险（Medicare）。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> I mean, I could be wrong, but I think that the thing we're going to hear Abdul say talk about the most, my guess, is expanding Medicare.</details>

>> 那确实非常、非常受欢迎，对吧？能有人一遍又一遍地敲打强调这一点，我认为对该党只会、只能是有利的。我是说，这这也

<details><summary>Original English</summary>>> And that is really, really popular, right? And kind of having somebody bang away at that over and over again is is it can kind of only I think can only help the party. I mean, it's it's also</details>

<!-- chunk 7/8 -->

太耐人寻味了。我几乎不是第一个指出这一点的人：他当时是以“全民医保”为竞选纲领的，而过去我们一直认为这在选举上是一个极其危险的立场，结果它几乎没有成为被攻击的一个点。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
fascinating. I'm not hardly the first person to point this out that he ran on Medicare for all which we used to think was like an extremely um electorally like dangerous position and it barely registered as like a a point of attack.
</details>

>> 这反映了医疗体系目前的现状，那就是“全民医保”的支持率从来没有像今年这么好过。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> It is a reflection of where the healthare system right now is that Medicare for all has never pulled as well as it has this year.
</details>

>> 你知道，还有安妮·安德鲁斯医生（Dr. Annie Andrews），你知道她真的在医疗保健问题上不断强调。所以，这些医生进入了民主党的参议院党团，而此时我认为在迈向2028年的过程中，人们将会重新审视医疗保健和医疗改革。我想把话题转到堪萨斯州。堪萨斯州上一次有民主党人进入参议院还是在20世纪30年代。嗯，你知道，我记得大概两个月前，人们开始告诉我，他们认为亚当·汉密尔顿（Adam Hamilton）真的有胜算。这是我能看到民调数据但却很难相信民调数据的情况之一，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> And you know you also Dr. Annie Andrews who you know really hammers home on healthcare. So, you've got these doctors coming into the Democratic um Senate caucus at a time when I think there is going to be a revisiting of healthcare and healthcare reform parting in the runup to to 2028. I want to move to to Kansas. The last time Kansas had a Democrat in the Senate was the 1930s. Um, you know, I remember about two months ago people started to tell me they thought Adam Hamilton really had a chance. And this is one of those I could see a poll number, but I had a lot of trouble believing the poll number,
</details>

>> 对吧？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> right?
</details>

>> 而他确实有胜算。他令人信服地赢了。所以我想探究一下他在堪萨斯州推销自己的方式。我认为这段视频片段非常说明问题。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> And he did have a chance. He won convincingly.

And so I want to get at the way he sold himself in Kansas. I think this clip is really telling.
</details>

>> 有人对我说：“我搞不懂你。你是自由派还是保守派？”我的回答是：“当然两者都是。”然后［笑声］他们就说：“不，不。你到底是哪一个？”我就说：“我认为我们两者都可以是。成为自由派意味着胸怀宽广，乐于以全新的眼光看事物，并且乐于接受改革；而成为保守派意味着坚守那些真正重要的价值观或信仰。我们可以同时成为这两种人。而且我对你们所有人都有这样的了解：即便是这个房间里最自由派的人，与你认识的某个人相比，你也是保守的；而你们所有偏保守的人，与你认识的某个人相比，也是自由派。所以，我们需要彼此。”

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> And I have people say to me, I can't figure you out. Are you liberal or conservative? And my answer is yes, of course. And [laughter] they're like, no, no. Which are you? And I'm like, I think we can be both. To be a liberal means to be generous of spirit, open to seeing things with new eyes and and to be and open to reform and and to be conservative means holding on to values or beliefs that are really important. We can be both of those things at the same time. And I know this about all of you. Even the most liberal in this room, you're conservative compared to somebody you know. And all of you who are more conservative are liberal compared to somebody you know. And so we need each other.
</details>

>> 你怎么看他的竞选？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> What did you make of his campaign?
</details>

>> 还是那句话，我的意思是，我认为我们谈过这种“超越”的理念，对吧？但是人们，我认为人们对于一直处于愤怒状态感到太疲惫了。有太多的家庭因为政治而破裂。你知道，朋友反目成仇。而且我认为人们希望摆脱这种局面。所以，你知道，我们一直很关注詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）的做法。这也许就像是一个更平和一点的中西部版本。嗯，你知道，如果你现在是一位口才出众的民主党主流教派牧师，我想民主党的工作人员正在敲［笑声］你的门，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Again, I mean, I think we've talked about this idea of transcendence, right? But there is people I think are so exhausted with being like enraged all the time. There's been so many families that have been split apart over politics. You know, friendships split apart. And I think people want to move beyond that. And so, you know, we've paid a lot of attention to the way James Telerico did. This was maybe like a more sort of like slightly more sedate Midwestern version of that. Um, you know, and if you are like a wellspoken Democratic mainline pastor right now, I imagine that like Democratic operatives are coming [laughter] in your door
</details>

>> 因为这确实有一种信号作用，对吧？这不是人们习惯从民主党人那里看到的东西。所以仅仅听说那就是你的职业，对吧？你是一名牧师。我认为从一开始就打开了大门，让人觉得：嗯，也许这个人不一样，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> because it does it has a signal, right? That's not what people are used to from Democrats. And so just hearing that that is what you do, right? You are a pastor. I think it opens the door from the beginning to, well, maybe this person is different,
</details>

>> 对吧？而且他拥有一个，你知道，这是一座大教堂，对吧？人们已经……他已经在社区里拥有了这种公信力，而且他显然已经，你知道，他不可能像其他人那样被描绘成一个外来闯入者。但是，是的，我只是觉得，你知道，我们谈到了像氛围转变这样的事情，甚至可能在投票给特朗普的人群中，也存在一种疲惫感，以及对某种全国和解的渴望。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> right? And the fact that he has like a big, you know, it's a it's a big church, right? like people already he already has this kind of credibility in the community and he's already clearly you know he can't be painted as an interloper in the same way but yeah I just I think that you know we talked about like vibe shifts there is even maybe among people who voted for Trump there's an exhaustion and just like a desire for some sort of like national reconciliation
</details>

### 民粹主义与跨党派竞选

>> 我认为这里还有一个维度，观察他的竞选活动是一个很好的契机，让我们记住民粹主义虽然我们有时把它当作进步派或左翼的同义词，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> I think there's also a dimension here where looking at his campaign is a good moment to remember that populism even though we sometimes use it as like a synonym for progressive or leftist.
</details>

>> 它并不是左右光谱上的一个立场点。因为他在对付对手罗杰·马歇尔（Roger Marshall）时下手非常狠，针对的是马歇尔如何为了过去的债务对曾经的患者穷追不舍，以及马歇尔要求他们支付的利息数额。在马歇尔将债务转交给讨债公司后，他们中的一些人最终甚至进了监狱。所以汉密尔顿在某些方面是针对马歇尔打了一场非常民粹主义的选战；另一方面，他以既自由派又保守派的形象参选，他在这个问题上的台词是“我怀着沉重的心情支持生命（反堕胎）”。密西西比州的斯科特·科伦（Scott Colom）也是以个人支持生命立场的形象参选的。我认为他们两位在政策层面上也都是支持堕胎选择权的，但汉密尔顿给我的感觉更像是民主党过去在90年代经常推出来的那类候选人。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> It's not like a position point on the left right spectrum cuz he went really hard against his opponent Roger Marshall for the way Marshall had hounded past patients over their debts and the amount of interest Marshall paid had demanded they pay. Some of them ended up in jail you know after he turned it over to collections. So Hamilton was running in some ways a very populist campaign against Marshall on the other hand running as you know both liberal and conservative ran as his line on this was I'm pro-life with a heavy heart. Um Scott Colum in Mississippi also ran as personally pro-life. I think both of them were also like pro-choice as a policy matter but he felt to me Hamilton more like the kind of candidate Democrats used to run like in the '9s.
</details>

>> 哦，对，确实如此。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Oh yeah for sure.
</details>

>> 那时候，你知道，有这种南方民粹主义传统，但在文化上更保守。它把信仰公开表露在外。他现在感觉像是一种新鲜事物，但他实际上给我的感觉非常熟悉，更像是我成长时期的产物。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Where there were like you know you had this sort of southern populist tradition but it was more culturally conservative. if it like wore its faith on its sleeve. He feels like something new now, but he actually felt to me like something very recognizable from more when I was growing up.
</details>

>> 是的。没错，我认为百分之百是这样。嗯，我的意思是，这部分原因既关乎人们所谓的那些“团体”影响力的下降，也关乎我认为许多民主党人的一种承认：

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Yeah. No, I think 100%. Um I mean part of this is just about the both the declining power of what you know people call like the groups and also a sort of acknowledgment I think among a lot of Democrats that
</details>

>> 一方面，你知道，比如堕胎权本身确实能够动员选民出来投票。你可以看到，堪萨斯州确实通过了这项保护堕胎权的全民公投，许多深红州也通过了，但这并不一定会促使人们把票投给民主党人。我的意思是，退一步说，其中一些公投反而有点像让人们获得了投票给共和党人的许可，因为他们已经保护了自己的堕胎权。而且我认为，也存在这样一种感觉，就是人们希望觉得自己的代表是在真诚地应对这些问题，而不是像在重复己方阵营的套话。共和党人试图把跨性别议题炒得如此突出，可能至少只是他们在重复上一次选举中的老调。但我也有一个理论，那就是选民会奖励那个看起来对这个问题关注更少的一方。对吧？卡玛拉·哈里斯在2024年为此受到致命打击，部分原因并不是因为人们在个人层面上那么关心监狱里的人是否能获得激素，而仅仅是因为这表明了她的优先事项，对吧？就好像他们在乎这些东西，却不在乎你所面临的处境。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> on the one hand you know like abortion rights for example can can turn people out on its own um that you see you know Kansas did pass this abortion rights referendum a lot of these red states states did, but it doesn't necessarily motivate people to vote for Democrats. I mean, if anything, some of these referendums kind of gave people um permission to vote for Republicans because they had protected their abortion rights. And there's also, I think, just a sense that people want to feel like their representatives are sincerely grappling with these issues instead of sort of like repeating the team's rhetoric. the Republicans tried to make trans issues such a like so salient probably at least is just them just playing the hits from the last election. But I also have a theory that voters reward the side that seems to care about that issue less. Right? that part of the reason it was damning for Kla Harris in 2024 wasn't because people were so concerned personally about um you know sort of whether people are getting their hormones in prison as just that it was such a statement about her priorities right and that it was like they care about this stuff they don't care about what you're facing
</details>

### 新一代民主党与反寡头议题

>> 我很感兴趣的是，在你所做的所有报道中，随着你观察事态的发展，你认为是什么把所有这些候选人联系在一起的？这个人才济济的新民主党……而且我想指出的是，我们在这里一直重点关注参议院和几位州长。众议院的选战很难面面俱到，因为数量实在太多了。但是，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> I'm interested in all the reporting you did as you watch us play out what you think ties all these candidates together. What this sort of new Democratic party with all this talent and and I want to note we've been focusing very strongly here on the Senate and a couple governors. It's like it's very hard to get at the House races because there's so many of them. But
</details>

>> 你知道，民主党看起来有望斩获250到260个众议院席位。这是一个令人难以置信的数字。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> you know, Democrats look to be on track for 250 to 260 House seats. It is an incredible incredible number.
</details>

>> 所以，我的意思是，这种情况正在那里发生。这一切在每一个层面上都在发生。你知道，州议会实现了翻盘，但给我的感觉确实是涌现出了很多新人才。你知道，并非所有这些候选人都是千禧一代，但他们中的很多人都是千禧一代。这感觉像是民主党内部一个非常重大的代际更迭时刻，这也是为什么谢罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）和罗伊·库珀（Roy Cooper）的胜利——两者的胜利都非常、非常、非常令人印象深刻——我认为受到的关注稍微少了一些，因为我认为人们都在关注这一代新人会是什么样子？你认为这新一代人会是什么样子？你认为从2026年中期选举中走出来的民主党，与从2018年中期选举中走出来的民主党有什么不同？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> So, I mean, this was happening there. This was all happening at every level. You know, state legislators flipped, but it does feel to me like there's a lot of new talent. You know, not all these candidates are millennials, but a lot of them are millennials. This feels like a very big moment of generational turnover in the Democratic party, which is one reason shared Brown and Roy Cooper's victories, which are both very, very, very impressive, I think, are getting a little bit less attention because I think people are looking to see what is this new generation going to be like? What do you think this new generation is going to be like? What do you think is different about the Democratic Party that is emerging out of the 2026 midterm from the Democratic party that emerged out of the 2018 midterm?
</details>

>> 从根本上说，是对寡头政治的关注，我甚至都不记得我们在2018年用过这个词，但是对吧，这种对寡头政治和腐败的关注，在某种程度上仅仅是因为唐纳德·特朗普得到了彻底的放开，并且能够［嗤笑］向他周围的那帮亲信赐予如此多的恩惠。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> I mean fundamentally the focus on oligarchy which I don't even remember us kind of using that word in 2018 but right this kind of focus on oligarchy and corruption and some to some degree this is just a um function of the fact that Donald Trump has been so unleashed and has been able to um kind [snorts] of bestow so many favors on the codory of people around him.
</details>

>> 但它确实——我的意思是，我之前也说过这个——它为民主党人创造了成为反精英、反企业、反亿万富翁阶层的条件。所以在实践中这可以意味着很多不同的事情，对吧？我的意思是，如果他们能够在近期提高税收或开征财富税，我会感到非常惊讶。在新一届国会中，将会出现这样一场争论：究竟是追究特朗普的责任，还是向前看。我认为，那个维恩图的交集就是调查腐败，对吧？调查把公共资源输送给所有这些贪婪人物的行为。所以再说一次，我认为你只是……

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> But it has I mean and I' I've said this before, it has created the conditions for Democrats to be the anti- elite kind of anti-corporate, anti-billionaire class. And so that can mean a lot of different things in practice, right? I mean, I don't I would be very surprised if they're able to say raise taxes or institute a wealth tax anytime soon. There's going to be this debate in the new Congress about like, you know, move for hold Trump accountable or move forward. The middle of that ven diagram, I think, is investigating corruption, right? Investigating the sort of like siphoning off of public goods to all of these kind of vulturous figures. And so again, I think that you just have
</details>

<!-- chunk 8/8 -->

[嗤笑] 它不完全只是一种反特朗普政党，其中最令人兴奋的新面孔有点像抵抗力量的面孔。他们的面孔。呃，你看，我认为总体的，怎么说呢，完形或者说，是那些认为我们整个体制就像被接管了、这些恶性人物的权力需要被打破的人。不过我确实认为——我既认为那是真的，又在某些方面认为这在2026年到2028年之间不会那么突出，因为唐纳德·特朗普仍将是美国政治的中心，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
[snorts] it's not so much just a kind of an anti-Trump party where the most exciting new faces are kind of like faces of the resistance. their faces. Uh the you know the I think the the general the the like how do I say this the gestalt or the um is people who believe that like our entire system has been just kind of like taken over and that the power of these kind of malevolent figures needs to be broken. I do think though that I both think that's true and in some ways I don't think this is going to be so salient between 2026 and 2028 because Donald Trump is going to remain the center of American politics
</details>

>> 而且民主党人将不必处理他们自己的一些内部紧张关系。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> and Democrats are not going to have to manage some of their own internal tensions.
</details>

>> 但“大帐篷”的难处不在于作为一个整体去竞选，而在于作为一个整体去执政。而在大选之后，我一直非常感兴趣地看到，这些不同的候选人在思考在堪萨斯州保住参议院席位并在选民中受欢迎意味着什么时，对吧？或者在得克萨斯州，或者在……塔里科在大选次日就上了福克斯新闻。我认为这本身就是一个信号，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> But the difficult thing about a big tent isn't so much running as one, but governing as one. And I I've been very interested to see, you know, right after the election, how some of the these different candidates are are speaking as they think about what is it going to mean to hold a Senate seat and and be popular among your constituents in Kansas, right? Or in Texas or in and and Terico went on Fox News the the day after the election. I think that's a signal unto itself,
</details>

>> 但我认为他说的话很有意思。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> but but I thought what he said was interesting.
</details>

>> 我对报复不感兴趣。得克萨斯州人民昨晚选我，呃，不是为了报复。他们选我是为了让我为他们办实事，让他们的生活更轻松、更好、压力更小。这就是我打算做的事。我打算做这件事，甚至是为了那些没有投票给我的得州人。这就是为什么我次日早晨就来到福克斯新闻。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> I am not interested in retribution. The people of Texas did not elect me last night. uh for retribution. They elected me to deliver for them to make their lives easier and better and less stressful. And that's what I plan to do. And I plan to do it even for the Texans who didn't vote for me. It's why I'm here on Fox News the morning after.
</details>

>> 感谢您的到来。我们真的很感激。我最后有一个简短轻松的问题问您。您是否很庆幸接受了乔·罗根的采访？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> We appreciate you coming on. We really do. I have a last easy quick question for you. Are you so glad you did that Joe Rogan interview?
</details>

嗯，我和乔·罗根聊得很开心，而且我一直愿意上那些节目或播客，去面对在任何议题上与我意见相左的主持人，因为在这个国家，我们必须架起桥梁。我们必须修复将我们联系在一起的纽带。这就是我们在得克萨斯州开创的新型政治形态。这就是我们在全美最大的红州以两位数优势获胜的方式。我认为这可以成为我们国家前进的蓝图。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
Well, I I had a great time with Joe Rogan, and I'm always willing to go uh on to shows uh or podcasts with hosts who disagree with me on on any issue because we have to we have to build bridges in this country. We have to repair the ties that bind us together. That is the new form of politics that we pioneered in Texas. It's how we won by double digits in the largest red state in the country. And I think it can be a blueprint for our nation going forward.
</details>

在我看来，这是2018年和2026年的一个重大区别。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
This to me is a big difference between 2018 and 2026.
</details>

>> 2018年，我认为民主党在某种程度上仍然觉得特朗普这一套是个异常现象，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> 2018 I think the Democratic party still sort of felt this Trump thing was an aberration
</details>

>> 就像蝴蝶扇动了翅膀，詹姆斯·科米拿到了笔记本电脑，希拉里·克林顿因侥幸事件落选，而你可能正好能把这东西重新装回瓶子里，对吧？就像把它重新塞回这个国家的地下室里。于是你就有了这种抵抗政治，但它有点像是一种加倍下注的政治，对吧？就像是：我们在2016年因为这些原因认为唐纳德·特朗普很糟糕，现在你能看到他确实因为这些原因非常糟糕，对吧？让我们一劳永逸地结束这一切。而我认为现在的民主党不再相信那一套了，对吧？他们在2024年之后受到了惩戒，对吧？他们重新夺回了权力，

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> that you know Butterfly had flapped his wings and James Comey had taken a laptop and Hillary Clinton had lost in a fluke and you might just be able to like bottle this thing back up, right? Like shove it back into the the basement of the country. And so you had this, you know, this resistance politics, but it was a little bit of a doubling down politics, right? It's like we thought Donald Trump was bad for these reasons in 2016. Now you can see he's really bad for these reasons, right? Let's like end this forever. And I think now you have this Democratic party that doesn't believe that, right? They got chasened after 2024, right? They got power back
</details>

>> 而无论他们用那权力做了什么，都还不够好，对吧？相反，特朗普主义卷土重来，比以前更强大、更受欢迎，而且从根本上比以前更具危险性和破坏性。所以，那种如果你行使权力的方式将人们推回对立面会发生什么的感觉，我认为那在民主党人脑海中会更加占据前沿，对吧？他们仍然必须在2028年获胜，更不用说如果他们赢了之后该怎么做了。我是说，对我而言，那里最大的区别在于他们关于如何从那个联盟中分化选民的理论。因为在2018年以及一直到卡玛拉·哈里斯的竞选期间，有一种感觉是，你能争取到的人是受过教育的中上阶层郊区居民，他们感到震惊，觉得唐纳德·特朗普很粗俗，并且对关于民主的呼吁有反应。我记得吉娜·伊诺霍萨对我说，她说，我们要争取的人不是乡村俱乐部共和党人，而是MAGA。当时我的反应是，真的吗？你看，显然这可能会被夸大。我认为确实有很多人加入MAGA是为了大规模驱逐，是为了其中的残酷。但也有一些人，你看，这同样是我很难理解的事情，那些人在唐纳德·特朗普的头四年之后仍然相信唐纳德·特朗普会[嗤笑]让他们的生活变得更好，相信他真的是他们在《学徒》里看到的那个人，相信他真的是某种财务天才，而且他们会对那些让他们觉得不仅是在回应这些焦虑、回应他们的生活如此艰难这一事实的人持开放态度，对吧？那些以尊重的态度对待他们、能为他们办实事的人。我是说，那是困难的部分，对吧？尤其是在唐纳德·特朗普执政的时候。你能做某些事情，他们也许能够恢复《平价医疗法案》的补贴，但我认为有一种感觉是，他们未来潜在的联盟与几年前所设想的并不一样。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> and whatever they did with that power, it wasn't good enough, right? And instead Trumpism roared back stronger than before, more popular than before, and fundamentally more dangerous and destructive than before. And so the sense of what happens if you wield power in a way that pushes people back to the other side, I think that's much more going to be much more front of mind for Democrats, right? They still have to win in 2028 to say nothing of then what you know if they do win then what they do after that. I I mean to me the biggest difference there is their theory about how you peel people off from that coalition because the the kind of in 2018 and really going through the Kla Harris campaign, there was a sense that the people that you could win over were sort of educated upper middle class suburbanites who were appalled um you know and who kind of found Donald Trump like vulgar and were responsive to appeals about democracy And I remember Gina Hinosa saying to me, she's like, the people that we're going to win are not the country club Republicans, it's MAGA. And I was like, really? You know, and obviously that can be overstated. There are a lot of people, I think, who were in MAGA for the mass deportations, who were in there for the cruelty. But there are people, you know, who again, and this is something that's hard for me to understand that people who still believed even after the first four years of Donald Trump that Donald Trump was going to [snorts] make their lives better, that his, you know, that he really was the man that they saw from the Apprentice, that he really was this sort of like, you know, financial genius, and that are going to be open to people who they feel like are not just kind of speaking to those to those anxieties and to the fact that their lives have been so hard, you know, right? Who are speaking to them with respect um and who can do something for them. I mean, that's the hard part, right? Especially when you have Donald Trump in office. You can, you know, you can do certain things. They might be able to restore the ACA subsidies, but I think there's a sense that their potential coalition going forward is a different one than the one they imagined a few years ago.
</details>

### 书籍推荐

>> 我想这是个很好的收尾处。最后还有一个问题。您会向听众推荐哪三本书？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> I think that's a good place to end. I'll also find a question. What are three books you'd recommend to the audience?
</details>

>> 我在业余时间几乎只读虚构作品。其中有一本今年出版的书，我非常喜欢，我觉得它表现得不错，但我感觉没怎么听到人们谈论它，那就是法特米娜·苏巴特写的《好人》。这本书讲述的是弗吉尼亚州一个非常融入当地的阿富汗家庭，家中的十几岁女儿在一场可能属于也可能不属于荣誉谋杀的事件中被杀害。它关乎一场谋杀，所以具有那种引人入胜的惊悚元素，但它[嗤笑]就是一本关于融入以及融入限度的极好作品。呃，非常令人心碎。总之，这是其中一本。我最近无缘无故总在想的一本书，呃，是关于一个衰败中的独裁个人崇拜的最后日子。那就是马里奥·巴尔加斯·略萨写的《公羊的节日》，这本书讲的是多米尼加共和国拉斐尔·特鲁希略遇刺的故事。我是说，这是一本残忍的书，所以事先提醒一下。呃，里面有些场景可能永远不会从我的脑海中抹去，但我最近一直在想它的原因在于，一方面你能感受到这个人的存在是如此无孔不入，随后又是如何烟消云散的。这同样是一本让人欲罢不能的书，但我认为它与当下这个时刻有某些呼应，尽管显然不是以暴力的方式。最后，我想推荐——我希望推荐一本我读了一半的书没问题，纯粹是因为我读的时候就在想，怎么我以前没听说过这本书呢？也许你的读者有一半都听说过，他们会觉得，你之前都干嘛去了？那就是莱昂纳多·帕杜拉写的《爱狗的男人》。你听说过吗？

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> So, I read almost exclusively fiction in my spare time. And one of the books, a book that came out this year that I absolutely loved and I think it did well, but I feel like I didn't hear people talking about it was this book called Good People by Patmina Sabbat. And it's a book about a very assimilated Afghan family in Virginia where the teenage daughter is killed in what may or may not have been an honor killing. It's about a killing, so it has, you know, these kind of like page turning thriller elements, but it's just like [snorts] such a good book about assimilation and the limits of assimilation. Um, it's like so heartbreaking. So anyway, that is one of them. A book I've been thinking about recently for no particular reason. Um, it's about the last days of a decaying dictatorial cult of personality. Is the feast of the goat by Mario Vargas Yosa, which is a book about the assassination of Raphael Chiro in the Dominican Republic. And I mean, it's a brutal book, so just like, you know, trigger warning. Um, there's scenes in it that maybe will like never leave my mind, but the reason I've been thinking about it recently is because you just get this sense on the one hand of this man whose presence is like all-encompassing and then the way it disappears. Again, it's like a book that you can't stop reading, but I think it has certain um echoes of this moment, although obviously not in a in a violent way. And then finally, I'm going to recommend I hope it's okay to recommend a book that I'm halfway through, only because as I'm reading it, I'm like, how come I had not heard of this book before? And maybe half your readers have and they're just like, where have you been? But this book called The Man Who Loves Dogs by Leonardo Pedora. Have you heard of it?
</details>

>> 没有，我没听说过。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> No, I haven't.
</details>

>> 好吧。其实我几个月前要去墨西哥城的时候就买了它，但它没有及时寄到，所以我现在才刚开始读。这是一本大部头、有点俄罗斯小说风格的历史小说，讲的是列昂·托洛茨基遇刺的故事，你知道，如果你喜欢——我其实挺喜欢这类把精彩历史事件写成小说的小说。而且这——列昂·托洛茨基遇刺就是一个引人入胜而且有点狂野的故事。再次说明，我[嗤笑]才读了一半，所以也许它后面会崩掉，但到目前为止，我呃觉得它应该比现在的地位更成为一部经典。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Okay. So, I I actually bought it a few months ago when I was going to Mexico City, and it didn't come in time, so I've only just started reading it now. It's this like big fat kind of like Russian novel style um historical novel about the assassination of Leantrosky, which you know, if you like I I actually kind of love these novels that are like novelizations of exciting historical events. And and this is, you know, the the assassination of Lantrosky is just like a fascinating and kind of wild story. Again, I'm [snorts] halfway through, so maybe it falls apart, but so far I um feel like it should be more of a classic than it is.
</details>

>> 米歇尔·戈德堡，非常感谢你。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Michelle Goldberg, thank you very much.
</details>

>> 谢谢。[音乐]

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Thank you. [music]
</details>

>> [音乐]

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> [music]
</details>

>> 嘿，

[音乐]

嘿，嘿。

<details><summary>Original English</summary>
>> Hey,

[music]

hey, hey.
</details>