--- author: All-In Podcast date: '2026-11-04' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Asgxtk_kkI speaker: All-In Podcast tags: - wealth-tax - election-analysis - political-economy - betting-markets title: 财富税争议与加州前景 summary: 文章讨论了财富税对加州及硅谷的潜在负面影响，认为其可能导致经济衰退。同时分析了2024年中期选举的博彩市场数据，指出民主党在提前投票中占据优势，并探讨了经济因素对选民情绪的影响。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: politics-society area: society-thinking project: [] people: - Steve Hilton - Chamath - Ted Cruz - Ben Shapiro companies_orgs: - Polymarket - Apple Podcasts - Spotify products_models: [] media_books: - Verdict with Ted Cruz status: evergreen --- ### 财富税争议与加州前景 折中妥协。
Original English to to split the difference.
>> 坦白讲，真正的问题并不在于放弃资金或缴纳税款。问题在于确立了这样一种观念：人们在缴纳了所得税之后，其资产还会被征税，或者在缴纳所得税之前，其非流动性资产就会被征税。因为我认为这建立了一种机制，最终会导致毁灭和社幷会主义，使这个国家的任何人都极难实现个人层面的进步。我认为，这类结构性税收制度所带来的缺乏进步，正是会导致硅谷走向衰败、加州走向衰败，并可能导致这个国家走向衰败的原因。所以这才是让我最担忧的事情。
Original English >> Really the issue honestly the issue is not about giving up money or paying taxes. The issue is about creating the idea that people can get taxed on their assets after they've paid income tax or illquid assets before they've paid income tax because it creates a mechanism that I think ultimately leads to ruin and socialism that makes it very hard for anyone in the country to progress individually. And I think the lack of progress that arises from these sorts of structural tax systems are what will be the ruin um of Silicon Valley, the ruin of California, and potentially the ruin of the country. So that's what I'm most worried about.
>> 好的。嗯，这确实是个重要议题。看起来史蒂夫·希尔顿（Steve Hilton）目前的趋势不太乐观。查马斯（Chamath），上次我看 Polymarket 时，他大概只有 2% 的胜率，我们一会儿会把那个调出来。加利福尼亚州在这方面又是老样子，让不称职的人身居高位，把这个州搞垮。我当然三年前就离开了。查马斯，你今晚感觉怎么样？你怎么看？通常来说，你选择了留在加利福尼亚并继续抗争。
Original English >> Okay. Uh that is an important issue. Looks like Steve Hilton um was trending uh not so great. Chimoth on poly market like a 2% chance last time I checked and we'll pull that up in a second. Uh unfortunately more of the same for California in terms of putting un in unqualified people in positions of power to run the state into the ground. I of course fled three years ago. Uh how are you feeling tonight, Shimath? And what are your thoughts? Generally speaking, you chose to stay in California and fight.
>> 实话实说，我留下来是为了我的家人，也是为了继续经营我参与的各项业务。如果必须缴税，那我就会缴税然后继续往前走。但我确实认为，这对于在此进行建设的积极性来说，是一条相当负面的下坡路。我认为这不会在短期内产生某种灾难性的剧变，但我认为它会导致该州缓慢地消耗和衰落。所以我希望 40 号提案不通过，并希望 41 号和 42 号提案能够获得通过。
Original English >> To be honest, I stayed for my family and to keep building um the businesses that I'm involved in and uh if I have to pay the tax, I'll pay the tax and I'll move on. But I do think it has a pretty negative slippery slope for um the incentives to build here. And uh I think that that's not going to have some cataclysmic overnight effect, but I think it's going to cause the slow burn and decay um of the state. So I'm hoping that Prop 40 fails and I hope Propositions 41 and 42 pass
### 开票初步态势与博彩市场 >> 如果这些没能实现，我们就得承担后果，你懂的。但我确实认为这会对硅谷产生非常糟糕的影响，进而对整个美国产生不利影响。另外更普遍地说，博彩市场、民调和出口民调对这场选举所呈现的走势着实让我感到非常吃惊。如果这个结果维持下去——我再强调一下，我不知道它能否维持，因为大部分投票站还没有关闭——但如果维持下去，这将是全国民意的一个相当巨大的转变，我认为我们将需要花一些时间来剖析其原因以及它所代表的意义。
Original English >> and if if those don't happen, we'll absorb the consequences, you know. Um but I do think it has a really bad impact on Silicon Valley and then broadly America and then more generally um I'm really surprised at where the betting markets and where the polls and the exit polls and um are putting this election. it is uh if it stands again I don't know if it stands uh because most of the polls haven't closed yet but if it stands it is um it's a pretty enormous shift in the sentiment of the country and I think that it's going to take a little while for us to unpack why and what that means.
>> 是的。我们今晚就会来探讨这件事。我们今晚请来了一套不可思议的嘉宾阵容，稍后就会请出第一位。现在得克萨斯州时间是晚上 7 点 04 分，这意味着西海岸是下午 5 点，东海岸是晚上 8 点。已经有十几个州的投票站关闭了：佐治亚州、弗吉尼亚州、佛罗里达州、俄亥俄州、北卡罗来纳州。他们正在计票。虽然现在还为时过早，但看起来这不会是一场小打小闹的“蓝色浪潮”，反倒更像某些人预测的那样，会是一场巨大的“蓝色海啸”。我们来看一下这里的权力平衡。就在过去一个小时里 Polymarket 上的 2026 年中期选举盘面。各位，如果我们看过去一小时的数据，一小时前全取两院（sweep）的概率看起来还在 80% 出头——83%、84%，甚至一度低至 82%。现在全取的概率达到了 93%。我想我们都会同意，如果我们无法像过去那样信任民意调查，无论是出于偏见还是其方法论等诸多原因，弗里德伯格（Friedberg），当人们真正投入巨资时——我们正在查看的这个交易量达到了 6870 万——当你达到那种量级时，谈论的可就是一笔相当可观的金额了。现在来到我们节目共同探讨此事的，是来自伟大得克萨斯州——现在也是我的州——的现任参议员，我老兄、资深参议员特德（Ted）。今晚感觉如何？你被一些麦克风录到了，我不知道那是公开声明还是别的，他们把它描绘成一段泄露的录音。我觉得那不是泄露的。你对今晚原本是有担忧的，这些担忧现在成真了吗？
Original English >> Yeah. And uh we're going to do that tonight. We've got an incredible lineup of guests uh and we'll bring our first one on in a moment. It is uh 7:04 p.m. in the great state of Texas, which means it's 5:00 p.m. on the left coast and 8:00 p.m. on the right coast. Polls have closed in more than a dozen states. Georgia, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina. They're counting their votes. Still early, but it does not look like this will be a blue spritz. Looking like it's going to be a blue tsunami as some people predicted. Let's pull up uh the balance of power here. 22 2026 midterms on poly market just in the last hour. If we were looking at it in the last hour, gentlemen, an hour ago was looking like uh 80 low 80s 83 84 even as low as 82% for the sweep. Sweep chances now 93%. uh and these tend to be uh I think we all agree the if we if we can't trust the polls as much as we used to and uh for any number of reasons whether it's biases or their methodologies Freedberg um when people do put large amounts of money in the volume on this one that we're looking at is 68.7 million when you get to that level uh you are um talking about a pretty uh significant amount of money. And here to talk about it with us is the sitting senator from the great state now my state the great state of Texas. My guy the senior senator senior senator Ted. How are we feeling tonight? You uh were caught on some uh microphones. I don't know if it was public statements or not. They were framing it as you were. This was leaked audio. I don't think it was leaked. You had concerns about tonight. And are those concerns realized?
>> 嗯，我想说，当它被描述为泄露音频时，我感到挺好笑的，因为那是我每周主持的播客节目《Verdict with Ted Cruz》里说过的话。所以，这就好比说你在 All-In 播客上的发言被泄露了一样。
Original English >> Well, I will say I was amused when it was characterized as leaked audio because it's what I said on my podcast I do every week, Verdict with Ted Cruz. So, so it's like saying your comment on the All-In podcast was leaked.
>> 是从 Apple Podcasts 和 Spotify 泄露出来的。这两家都参与了这次泄露。
Original English >> It was leaked from Apple Podcast and Spotify. They both were involved in this leak.
### 特德·克鲁兹分析两党提前投票与基本盘 >> 听着，我对今晚的情况非常担忧。现在时间还早。还有人在投票，但东海岸的投票站已经关闭了。从我们在全国各地看到的提前投票情况来看，民主党人拥有相当大的优势。我可以告诉你，在得克萨斯州，如果选举在昨天截止，我们在得克萨斯将面临毁灭性打击。提前投票中，民主党人拥有巨大的优势。全国大多数州都是如此。从这些数据中既有好消息，也有坏消息。如果你看一下通常分析选举的方法，在共和党选民方面，你会将其细分为所谓的 4R、3R、2R 和 1R。4R 是指在过去四次共和党初选中投了四次票的人。3R 显然是指在过去四次中投了三次票，依此类推。民主党人也做同样的划分。如果看一下得克萨斯州的提前投票，4D 和 3D 选民中大约有四分之三已经在得州完成了提前投票。而在 4R 和 3R 选民中，只有大约一半在得州提前投了票。所以这其中存在很大的差距。因此，如果到那里就截止，我们将面临一场血洗。这是坏消息。好消息是，共和党人还有大量未投的选票可以在选举日当天进场。尚未投票的 3R 和 4R 选民，要远远多于 3R、3D 和 2D 选民。
Original English >> So, listen, I am very worried about tonight. It It's early still. There's still people voting, but but we have polls closed on the east coast. The early votes we've seen all over the country, the Democrats have had a sizable advantage. Uh I can tell you in Texas, if if the election had closed yesterday, we would face devastation in Texas. Uh the early vote, the Democrats had a big advantage. That's true in most states across the country. Uh now, there good news and bad news from that. Uh if you look at how you analyze elections typically you you break voters down on the Republican side into what are called four Rs, three Rs, two Rs, and one Rs. A four R is someone who's voted in four of the last four Republican primaries. A three R obviously is three of the last four, etc. Um the Democrats do the same thing. If you look at early votes in Texas, you had about three4s of the 4Ds and 3Ds had voted early in Texas. And about half of the four Rs and three Rs said voted early in Texas. So there was a big differential. So if you ended it there, we were facing a blood bath. That's the bad news. The good news, Republicans have a lot more outstanding votes that were available to come in on election day. There were a lot more three Rs and four Rs that hadn't voted than there were three Rs, 3Ds and 2Ds.
嗯。
Original English Mhm.
>> 我坐在这里，在得克萨斯州大部分地区投票站关闭刚刚 8 分钟的时候，我不知道的问题是选举日当天的投票率如何。要想赢，我们需要共和党人大量、极高地出来投票。在得克萨斯是这样，在大多数州也是这样。顺便说一句，随着我们向更西边推进，对于那些仍在投票的人来说，加利福尼亚州尤其有几场国会席位的竞争，那里的投票率至关重要。因此，即便我们在东海岸面临一场非常棘手的选举局面——可能确实如此，我是说，目前佛罗里达州的州长竞选和参议院竞选基本处于持平状态。我认为这两场我们都会赢，但目前是并驾齐驱的局面。这并不令人振奋。佐治亚州的参议院竞选，本该是我们这个周期最有希望翻盘的机会。他们在得克萨斯时间晚上 7 点 02 分就给出了预测结果，大概是在佐治亚州投票站关闭后一小时。
Original English >> The question that I don't know sitting here just 8 minutes after polls closed in most of Texas is what turnout was on election day. To win, we need a big big Republican turnout. That's true in Texas. That's true in most states. And by the way, as we get further west for the folks still voting and there are congressional races in particular in California where where turnout is going to matter. And so even if we're looking at a really nasty election on the east coast, and we might be, I mean, right now Florida is basically tied the governor's race and the Senate race. I think we'll win both of those, but they're neck andneck. It's not encouraging. Georgia, uh, the Senate race, it should have been our pick best pickup opportunity this cycle. They called it at 7:02 p.m. Texas time, about an hour after the Georgia polls closed.
>> 那可不太妙。是的。
Original English >> That ain't good. Yeah.
>> 所以，但我还是要对所有投票站仍开着的地方的人说，如果你是共和党人，如果你是自由意志主义者，如果你是独立选民，如果你只是一个有正常常识的人，请无论如何都出来投票，因为只要投票站还开着，这依然能带来改变。特德，你如何看待这针对总统和经济所传递出的评价，相比于在此之前的许多次选举中相当一致的行为模式——即往往通过政党轮替来维持权力平衡。那么，你如何界定这里正在发生的事情？观察者应该从中获取什么样的信号？是这样，确实存在一种结构性动态，通常在野党会在非大选年的中期选举中增加席位，这有几个原因。其一，在野党通常感到愤怒、充满怨恨，而且非常团结。在这种情况下，如果你是一名左翼选民，你对唐纳德·特朗普的痛恨
Original English >> Uh, so but I will say for everyone where polls are still open, I if you are Republican, if you're libertarian, if you're independent, if you're just a normal common sense person, please come out and vote anyway because it can still make a difference while the polls are open. Ted, what do you think about the comment that this makes about specifically the president and the economy versus what has been, you know, a pretty consistent behavioral pattern in many elections before this, which is you tend to keep the balance of power by flipping. And so, how do you how do you aortion what is happening here? Like, what is the signal that the observer should take away? Yeah, look, there is a structural dynamic that that typically the party out of power gains seats in an off-year election and and there are a couple of reasons for that. One, the party out of power, they're usually angry, they're pissed off, and they're unified. In this case, if you are a left-wing voter, you hate Donald Trump w
>> 带着足以点燃一千个太阳的怒火。这种仇恨激励了很多人上网捐款，也激励了很多人现身投票。因此左翼完全团结一致，甚至左翼内部的分歧也被对特朗普的仇恨所掩盖了。而在右翼方面，你看，眼下共和党人掌控着白宫、参议院和众议院。危险在于：第一，我们的人马产生了自满情绪，他们觉得，“天哪，日子挺不错的，我没必要去投票”；第二，我们内部存在分裂，中间派和右翼的不同派系对这样或那样的事情心存不满。比如在得克萨斯州，有保守派人士对国会尚未通过《拯救美国法案》（Save America Act）感到愤怒。我对国会没能通过《拯救美国法案》也很生气，我一直在为之努力争取。我们还没有
Original English >> with a fury that could ignite a thousand sons. That hate motivates a lot of people to go online and give money and it motivates a lot of people to show up and vote. And so the left is all unified and even the differences among the left, hatred of Trump manages to paper over that. On the right, look, right now Republicans have control over the White House, the Senate, and the House. The danger is a that our people are complacent. They say, "Gosh, things are pretty good. I don't need to show up." And b that we're divided. that you have different factions of folks in the middle and right that are upset at one thing or another. So in Texas, uh you have conservatives who are mad that that Congress hasn't passed the Save America Act. I'm mad that Congress hasn't passed the Save America Act. I've been fighting hard for it. We haven't had the
票。我们在参议院一直没有拿到50票，但我理解那种沮丧，不过那很可能让一些保守派留在了家里没去投票。在得克萨斯州，有温和派——至少有一部分人——因为约翰·科宁（John Cornyn）在初选中落败而感到气愤；如果保守派待在家里，温和派也待在家里，你的选票很快就会耗尽。大多数选举中都是这样。所以，我不会对此过度解读。我想说的是，我很感谢总统倾尽了全力。我是说，他在过去一个月里一直奔波在路上。他在全国各地举行集会。我和他一起跑了好几场。这也是我声音这么沙哑的部分原因。我在过去的14天里在9个州参加了17场集会。我几乎说不出话来了。但我们现在坐在这里，并不知道那在调动人们出来投票方面是否有效。如果大家留在家里，今晚有可能成为一个非常、非常糟糕的夜晚。
Original English votes. We haven't had 50 votes in the Senate, but I understand that frustration, but that may well have kept some conservatives at home. In Texas, you've got moderates, some at least, who are mad uh that John Cornin lost the primary and and if conservatives stay home and moderates stay home, very quickly you start running out of votes. That happens in most elections. So, so I wouldn't necessarily overread it. I I will say I appreciate the president went all in. I mean, he was on the road for the last month. He was doing rallies all over the country. I did a bunch with him. Part of the reason my voice is so weak. I I did 17 rallies in nine states in the last 14 days. I I can barely speak. But as we sit here right now, we don't know if that was effective turning people out or not. And if folks stayed home, this night has the potential to be a really, really bad night.
>> 参议员，如果民主党横扫参众两院，明年的立法程序会是什么格局？你知道，会发生什么，事情会怎样推进，或者哪些事情将无法推进？我们会面临一次大规模的政府停摆吗？也许可以梳理一下接下来将面临的一些重要关头。
Original English >> Senator, what's the setup if the Democrats sweep the House and the Senate for legislative process going into next year? you know, what's going to happen and how are things going to get done or what's not going to get done? Are we gonna face a big shutdown? Maybe talk through some of the the big moments that are ahead here.
### 民主党掌控国会的可能影响 >> 是的。听着，我认为如果民主党拿下国会的一院或两院——而且今晚看起来这非常、非常可能发生——我们将看到立法几乎彻底陷入僵局。请记住，这是一个被对总统的仇恨所驱动的政党。所以，我认为我们不会看到我们的民主党同僚进来后想要做很多富有成效的事情，或者实际上想要进行大量的立法。因此，我认为大部分立法都将陷入停顿。我们会给几所邮局命命名。我们会做一些无关紧要的小事，但如果民主党拿下其中一院或两院，我不指望会有重大立法得到推进。如果民主党拿下参议院，停顿的还不止于此。我认为人事确认也会陷入停顿。如果我们出现内阁空缺，我认为那些内阁职位就会一直空着。我们还有副部级（subcabinet）职位处于总统尚未提名的空缺状态。我认为那些职位也会一直空着，总统将无法再在行政分支机构中建立起自己的团队。我相信，查克·舒默如果拥有多数席位，他也会阻止司法任命的确认。这在以前从未发生过。过去，当总统属于一个政党而参议院属于另一个政党时，司法提名依然会向前推进。只是有所温和化。如果存在分治格局，提名就不会那么极端。我认为舒默和民主党人只会直接叫停所有法官任命，这意味着如果出现最高法院大法官空缺，我认为他们会让该职位空缺两年。我认为他们不在乎，因为他们的选民基本盘已经如此激进化了。我认为我们还将看到两年的无休止弹劾。我相信，只要民主党控制众议院，众议院就会弹劾唐纳德·特朗普。他们甚至可能弹劾他多次。我们将看到传票，我们将看到调查。我认为他们会针对特朗普总统。我认为他们会针对他的家人。我认为他们会针对内阁成员。我预计在跛脚鸭时期，我们会看到对皮特·海格塞斯（Pete Hegseth）的弹劾。我认为他们正急于推进这件事。所以，我认为这纯粹就是全面的党派战争。问题在于，如果今晚对民主党人来说是一个非常顺利的夜晚，这就会助长他们党内的激进分子。它会鼓动公开的共产主义者。它会鼓动公开的伊斯兰主义者。而且对于你们关注的话题，也就是科技和人工智能，我想说：如果今晚是民主党的大胜之夜，对这个国家的经济来说将是一个非常糟糕的夜晚，特别是对人工智能和数据中心而言，因为民主党人已经认定人工智能大体上、以及数据中心尤其都是恶魔。我认为你会看到，如果他们拥有国会的一院或两院，就会对人工智能和数据中心发起无休止的打压，这对共产主义中国来说将是一笔巨大的实质性助力，因为他们会竭尽所能拖慢美国的速度；如你所知，如果我们停止了美国所有的数据中心建设……
Original English >> Yeah. Look, I think if if Democrats take one or both houses of Congress, and tonight that is looking very very likely, uh we will see almost total legislative gridlock. I remember this is a party that's animated by hatred for the president. So, I I don't think we're going to see our Democrat colleagues come in and want to do much productive, actually want to do much legislating. So, I think most legislation will grind to a halt. We'll name a few post offices. We'll do a few things that that are not terribly consequential, but but I don't expect major legislation to move if the Democrats take one or both houses. If the Democrats take the Senate, that's not the only thing that halts. I think confirmations grind to a halt. If we have cabinet vacancies, I think those cabinet vacancies stay open. We have subc cabinet vacancies where where the president has not nominated. I I think those stay open that the president will no longer be able to put his team in place in the executive branches. And I believe Chuck Schumer, if he's got a majority, will stop judicial confirmations as well. That's never happened. In the past, when you had a president of one party and and a senate of the other, you move forward with judicial nominations. It moderated some. So So the the nominations would be less extreme if you had dividing control. I think Schumer and the Democrats will just al halt all judges, which means if we have a Supreme Court vacancy, I think they'll keep the vacancy open for two years. I don't think they care uh because their base is that radicalized. I think we will also see two years of relentless impeachment. I believe the House will impeach Donald Trump if they have the House. Uh they may impeach him multiple times. We will see subpoenas. We will see investigations. I think they will go after President Trump. I think they will go after his family. I think they will go after cabinet members. I expect in the lame duck we will see an impeachment of Pete Hegth. I think they're eager to go forward with that. Uh and so I think it's just all out partisan war. And and the problem is if tonight is a really good night for the Democrats. It encourages the crazies in their party. It encourages the open communists. It encourages the open Islamists. And and I will say for the topics you guys focus on which is tech and AI. If tonight is a big night for the Democrats, it is a very bad night for the economy in this country and in particular for AI and data centers because the Democrats have decided that AI writ large and data centers in particular are are the devil. And I think you're going to see if they have one or both fa houses of Congress a relentless assault on both AI and data centers which will be a massive contribution an inkind contribution to communist China because they'll do everything they can to slow America down which as you know if we halted all data center construction in America
>> 那很可能会让美国经济陷入衰退。不幸的是，民主党人反倒会为此庆祝，他们会把责任推给特朗普，说：“看看特朗普有多糟糕？现在我们陷入衰退了。”我认为他们会尽一切可能促成这种情况。
Original English >> that would likely put the American economy into a recession. Unfortunately, the Democrats would celebrate that and they would blame it on Trump and say, "See how bad Trump is? Now we're in a recession." I think they're going to do everything they can to try to make that happen.
>> 就你的观点而言，我认为从博弈论的角度来看——泰德，我们上周在播客里也讨论过这个——正如你所说，如果你控制了两院的多数席位，民主党的议程就会是对所有人发出传票。
Original English >> To your point, I think the game theory, we talked about this, Ted, on our on our pod last week, which is exactly what you said, which is if you have majority control of both houses, the Democratic agenda would be to subpoena everybody.
>> 没错。
Original English >> Yep.
>> 获取尽可能多的文件。要么公开这些文件，要么泄露这些文件，以便尽可能多地制造出围绕所有这些人的恐慌、不确定和疑虑（FUD）。然后，在你能切实把法案递交到总统办公桌的范围内，你会去做那些完全违背他们逻辑上希望发生的事情，从而迫使总统在可能的情况下予以否决。因此，这种布局几乎就是要把不确定性推向市场，特别是资本市场。这会冻结市场。正如你所指出的，如果你冻结了市场，确实会引发衰退。这或许是民主党人参选的最佳格局。彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）做过一次采访，我不知道你有没有看过，他说如果出现“蓝潮海啸”，实际上会让民主党放开手脚去推举他们最极端的候选人，因为他们会认为这是对党纲极左边缘的合法化认可。你认同这一点吗？如果认同，你如何看待这在2028年的走向？
Original English >> Get as many documents as possible. either release those documents or leak the documents so that you create as much, you know, FUD around all of these folks as much as possible. And then to the extent that you can actually get something to the president's desk, you're going to do things that are so counter to um what they would logically want to have happen that it forces the president somehow to veto them if possible. And so the setup is to almost push uncertainty into the marketplace, specifically the capital markets. and that freezes the markets. And if you freeze the market, to your point, you do induce uh a recession. And that's probably the best setup for um a Democrat to run. There was a there was an interview that Peter Teal did that I don't know if you saw it, but he said that if there was a blue tsunami, it actually um unshackles the Democrats to run their most extreme candidate because it they would view this as legitimization of the the far-left edges of the platform. Do you agree with that? And how do you see that playing out into 28 if you do?
>> 是的，我认为这极有可能是正确的。在我跑遍全州进行竞选造势的州当中，密歇根是其中之一。我不知道密歇根的结果会是怎样，但我认为这个周期最危险的两位民主党候选人是密歇根州的阿卜杜勒·赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）和得克萨斯州的詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）。我认为如果他们当中的一人或两人获胜——我在竞选巡回中就说过这一点——如果赛义德在密歇根获胜，我认为这会让AOC在2028年成为民主党总统候选人的可能性大幅增加。因为我认为她目前已经是前三名的有力竞争者之一了。我认为AOC、加文·纽森（Gavin Newsom），可能还有乔恩·奥索夫（Jon Ossoff），是目前排名前三的人选。
Original English >> Yeah, I I I think that is very likely correct. Um, one of the states that I I campaign barnstorm the whole state with is is Michigan. I don't know what the results are going to be in Michigan, but I think the two most dangerous Democrat candidates this cycle are Abdul Alied in Michigan and James Talerico in Texas. And I think if one or both of them wins, I I I said this on the trail. If Al say wins in Michigan, I think it makes it much much more likely that AOC is the Democrat nominee for president in 2028. because I think she's already one of the top three contenders. I think AOC, Gavin Newsome, and probably John Oaf are the top three right now.
>> 是的。
Original English >> Yeah.
>> 在民主党初选中针对AOC的主要批评是她太极端了，无法赢得大选。但如果赛义德在典型的摇摆州密歇根获胜，我认为他们就会说：“看吧，没关系。你可以彻底走极端，而且照样能赢。”
Original English >> The main knock against AOC in a Democrat primary is she's too extreme to win the general. If you get Al say winning in Michigan, the quintessential swing state. I think they say, "Look, it doesn't matter. You can go fullon crazy and win anyway."
>> 我认为这对国家是不利的，但我确实认为这会让民主党变得更加极端。我还想说，听着，民主党人已经做出了铺垫：如果他们掌控一院或两院，他们将利用传票去针对与总统合作过的企业高管，去针对埃隆·马斯克。他们已经宣布他们打算进行法律战和公开攻击。伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）已经提议对SpaceX和“星链”（Starlink）实施国有化和查封没收。我是说，他们谈论的这些东西完全像是出自菲德尔·卡斯特罗时期的古巴。
Original English >> Um, I think that's bad for the country, but I I do think it makes the Democrat party more extreme. I will say also uh look, the Democrats have already foreshadowed that that if they have one or both houses, they're going to use subpoenas to go after business executives who've worked with the president to go after Elon Musk. They've already declared they intend to engage in lawfare and and and in open attacks. Uh Bernie Sanders has suggested nationalizing seizing SpaceX and Starlink. Uh I I I mean this is stuff out of out of like Fidel Castro's Cuba that they're talking about.
>> 是的。
Original English >> Yeah.
>> 密歇根州的艾丽莎·斯洛特金（Elissa Slotkin）——她自诩为温和派——
Original English >> Alyssa Slotkin in Michigan who who styles herself a moderate
>> 已经表示，他们有一整套针对曾与总统和政府合作过的商界领袖的策略，而且还针对年轻人，比如一个去联邦政府工作的25岁年轻人。他们想要去迫害那些年轻人，以此打消任何人与共和党人合作的念头。我是说……
Original English >> has said they have a whole strategy of targeting business leaders who worked with the president and worked with the administration and also targeting young people like a 25year-old who goes and works in for the federal government. They want to go persecute those young people to disincentivize anyone working with Republicans. I mean,
>> 参议员，可以说他们这是要全力出击、动真格的了。很明显。
Original English >> you can say it's Senator. They're going to go after big balls. It's clear.
>> 他们就是要动真格的。得克萨斯州参议院选举的赢家出来了。
Original English >> They're going after big balls. Uh here's um the Texas Senate election winner.
>> 哇。可别怪我。我刚来这里，有人告诉我去投票时就直接投全红，别把蓝色带到得克萨斯来。我现在就系着红领带。我可以向你们保证，我没有把加州的那套带到得州来。但我想现在也许是时候了，泰德，也许该反思一下为什么大家对过去两年发生的事情如此群情激愤。我相信现在有很多人正在听，并且在说：“嘿，这些人不是……”
Original English >> Wow. Uh don't blame me. I just got here and uh I was told to when I go vote to just go straight red and don't bring blue to Texas. I'm wearing my red tie right now. I can assure you I have not brought uh California to Texas. But it's time right now, I think, Ted, maybe for a little reflection on why people are so charged up about what happened over the last two years. U I'm sure many people are listening right now saying, "Hey, these guys aren't
……甚至进行任何形式的反思。”你认为共和党人能从今晚的惨败中吸取什么教训？这位总统执政的头两年里，是否存在一些问题？我知道我们不被允许批评特朗普总统，大家都必须保持步调一致，批评必须非常温和，但你是一位独立思考者，你也曾脱离过特朗普总统的步调。为什么他会在这里引发如此强烈的反弹？如果要你列出他在前半段任期内本该做得更好的两三件事来避免这种局面，那会是什么？特德·克鲁兹参议员。
Original English even doing any kind of self-reflection." What do you think the Republicans can learn from tonight's shellacking? Are there things in the first two years of this president? And I know we're not allowed to criticize President Trump and everybody has to be in line and the criticism has to be very moderate, but you are an independent thinker and you have broken ranks with President Trump. Why is he getting such a strong reaction here if you had to list two or three things he should have done better in the first half to avoid this? What would they have been? Senator Ted Cruz.
>> 嗯，听着，在今晚看到全部结果之前，我不想反应过度。有很多迹象表明情况很糟糕，但是，但是选举嘛，我想等到所有选票都清点完毕。好吧，这很合理。
Original English >> Well, well, listen, I I don't want to overreact until we see all of the results tonight. There are a lot of signs that indicate it is bad, but but but elections, I want to wait till all the votes are counted. Okay, fair enough.
### 选情分析与选民动向 >> 但很明显，警告信号摆在那里，有很多人感到不满。导致这么多选战起伏不定的真正驱动因素之一，是农村选民，农民和牧场主真的非常不满，这造成了很大的影响，尤其是在整个中部地区。因此，这是德克萨斯州的一个重要因素。在像堪萨斯、内布拉斯加、艾奥瓦和密歇根这样的州也是一个因素，这些州拥有庞大的农业社区。农民和牧场主们感到沮丧。他们感到沮丧是因为柴油卖到了六七块钱一加仑。
Original English >> But but it's clear uh the warning signs there are a lot of people that are unhappy. One of the real drivers uh that that makes so many elections bumpy is rural voters, farmers and ranchers are are really unhappy and that's that's made a big difference particularly right up the middle of the country. So it's a big factor in Texas. It's a factor in in states like like Kansas and Nebraska and Iowa and Michigan, states where you've got big a communities. Uh, and farmers and ranchers, they're frustrated. They're frustrated because diesel's six or seven bucks a gallon.
>> 他们气坏了，因为化肥变得非常、非常昂贵。关税的冲击确实实实在在地影响到了他们。所以你有很大一部分农民，从历史上看，无论是在投票率还是得票优势上，他们都会大量投票支持共和党。一个真实的可能性是——我们在选举日之后就会知晓——如果这批农民中有很多人留在家中没去投票，如果这批牧场主中有很多人留在家中，或者更糟糕的是，如果他们把票投给了民主党，那可能会导致可怕的后果。此外，还有郊区选民，他们一直都是摇摆选民。在这个选举周期中，郊区选民最终倒向了哪一边，我还不得而知。看看像佐治亚或亚利桑那这样的州，就在几年前，佐治亚和亚利桑那还是深红州，
Original English >> They're pissed off because fertilizer has gotten really, really expensive. And and the impact of tariffs has has really impacted them. And so you've got a lot of farmers that are historically they show up in big numbers for Republicans both in turnout and margin. And one real possibility, we'll find out after election days, if a bunch of those farmers stayed home, if a bunch of those ranchers stayed home, or if they or if they voted Democrat, even worse, that could lead to a terrible outcome. You've you've also got suburban voters who have been a swing vote. Um, where suburban voters ended up this cycle, I don't know. You look at a state like Georgia or a state like Arizona where just a few years ago, Georgia and Arizona were bright red,
>> 它们现在往好处说也变成了摇摆紫色，甚至变成了蓝色，因为亚特兰大和菲尼克斯的郊区选民背离了总统。因此在德克萨斯州，我很担忧。我们拭目以待具体的数据，但你看看西班牙裔选民，尤其是南德克萨斯的西班牙裔选民。在仅仅两年前我的连任选举中，我在全州范围内以九个百分点的优势获胜。我赢了有一百万票。而我最自豪的是，我在整个德克萨斯州的西班牙裔选民中以六个百分点的优势胜出。这从未发生过。这是史无前例的。没有任何一位共和党参议员候选人做到过这一点。还有一直以来一百年都是深蓝的里奥格兰德山谷，我们把它翻转成了红色。我赢下了那个山谷，特朗普也赢下了那个山谷。现在，我不知道但相当担忧的是，那些在2024年首次站出来、把票投给共和党的山谷选民，他们是留在家中没投票，还是重新转回了他们以及他们父母、祖父母一百年来一直在做的事，那就是投票给民主党？人们将会密切关注这一点：农民、牧场主和农业选民。他们会关注蓝领选民。他们会关注西班牙裔选民——这与蓝领选民有很大的重叠。他们还会关注郊区选民，如果我们在这所有群体中都遭受损失，那就会形成一股浪潮，甚至是一场海啸。
Original English >> they've now turned purple at best, if not blue, because suburban voters in in Atlanta and Phoenix turned against the president. And and and so in Texas, I am worried. We're going to see the numbers, but you look at Hispanic voters, um particularly Hispanic voters in South Texas. So, in my re-elect just two years ago, uh, I won statewide by nine points. I won by a million votes. And what I was most proud of is I carried Hispanics across the state of Texas by six points. And, and that's never happened. That is unprecedented. No Republican Senate candidate has done that. And and the Rio Grand Valley, which has been bright red, bright blue for a hundred years, we flipped it red. And I carried the valley and Trump carried the valley. Now, what I don't know, but I'm quite concerned about is is those voters in the valley who came out for the first time and pulled the lever Republican in 2024, did they stay home or did they switch back to what they and their parents and grandparents had been doing for a hundred years, which is voting Democrat? And and and that's going to be something people are going to look at farmers and ranchers and a voters. They're going to look at bluecollar voters. They're going to look at Hispanic voters, which have a heavy overlap with bluecollar voters. and they're going to look at suburban voters and and and if if we're making having losses with all of them, that leads to to a wave if not a tsunami.
>> 是的。这意味着要赢回这些人，还有很多工作要做。就像特朗普赢得很多温和派的方式一样。很多温和派当时，
Original English >> Yeah. And that means it's an opportunity work to do winning those folks back. Same way Trump won uh a lot of moderates. A lot of moderates were,
>> 你懂的，对特朗普2.0感到好奇。所以，作为党内的资深元老，特德，你手头有很多工作要做。一如既往感谢你的到来。我们在伟大的德克萨斯州向你致敬。谢谢你，参议员。
Original English >> you know, Trump 2.0 curious. So, you got a lot of work on your hands, Ted, as an elder statesman in the party. Thank you for coming as always. We appreciate you here in the great state of Texas. Thank you, Senator.
### 连线与嘉宾讨论 >> 谢谢你，参议员。好的，现在转向过道的另一侧，我们这里有一条最新消息。目前参议院开票结果是42席。根据《纽约时报》的数据，目前民主党42席，共和党31席。还有很长的路要走。我认为最终的分差不会是11人。但现在与我们连线的，来自过道另一侧或者说完全站在中间立场的，是你们的一位朋友，戴夫·弗里德伯格。拉姆·伊曼纽尔正在加入我们。他是前驻我最喜欢的国家日本的大使，前芝加哥市长，以及奥巴马——奥巴马总统的前幕僚长。欢迎来到《All-In》2026年选举之夜特别报道，拉姆·伊曼纽尔。
Original English >> Thank you, Senator. Okay, now from the other side of the aisle, and we have an update here. 42 uh Senate results right now. 42 Democrat, 31 Republican, according to New York Times. Uh a long way to go. I I don't think it's going to be um 11 uh people as the Delta. But with us now from the other side of the aisle or straight down the middle is a friend of yours, uh Dave Freedberg. Rahm Emanuel is joining us. uh former ambassador to my favorite country, Japan, former mayor of Chicago, and Obama, President Obama's chief of staff. Welcome to the All-In election night coverage for 2026. Rahm Emanuel.
好的，那边出现了一点技术故障。在等待拉姆连线的同时，弗里德伯格，你对特德刚才的发言，尤其是最后那些话有什么想法？过去这几年发生的事情有什么教训。他提到了关税，提到了柴油，这显然跟战争有关。在等待拉姆期间，有什么想法吗？
Original English Okay, a little technical difficulties there. Uh Freeberg, your thoughts uh while we wait for Rahm here on Ted's uh comments there, especially towards the end. lessons uh in what happened over the last few years. He mentioned tariffs, he mentioned diesel, which obviously goes uh to the war obviously. Uh any any thoughts there while we
>> 我只想重申他关于农民所说的话，因为我就在农业行业工作。现在有98%或97%的农场在亏损。它们无法盈利。我们的农业出口失去了最大的客户中国。美国是世界上最大的农产品出口国。中国这个我们最大的买家消失了，而且化肥成本——这是种植大田农作物的头号投入成本——价格翻了一番，
Original English >> just I'll just reiterate what he said about farmers because I work in the agriculture industry. 98% or 97% of farms lose money now. They they can't make a profit. We lost our biggest customer, China, to our a export. The US is the world's largest exporter of agricultural products. China, our biggest buyer, disappeared and um the fertilizer cost, which is the number one input cost for farming row crops, uh the price doubled
>> 而且正如参议员所提到的，燃料价格翻了一番。因此从结构上讲，农民根本无法盈利。所以过去两年里他们收到了多笔政府支票，也就是特别补助金，试图让他们维持下去。所以目前农业处于危机之中，我认为我们正在这些农村州的选举结果中看到这一情况的表现。
Original English >> and as uh senator mentioned, fuel prices doubled. So structurally, farmers cannot make a profit. So they've received multiple government checks, uh ad hoc payments over the last two years to try and keep them afloat. So, it's a crisis in agriculture right now and I think we're seeing that play out in these rural states in the in the uh the results.
>> 是的。好的。我相信拉姆·伊曼纽尔已经在线上了。拉姆，你在吗？我
Original English >> Yeah. Okay. I believe we have Rahm Emanuel with us. Rom, are you here? I'm
>> 在。
Original English >> here.
>> 你好吗？
Original English >> How are you?
>> 我很好。你还记得你的好朋友戴夫·弗里德伯格吧。很高兴见到你。
Original English >> I'm great. You remember uh your good friend Dave Freedberg. Great to see you.
>> 你们真开心。
Original English >> You guys had a wonderful joy.
>> 感谢你再次回来。
Original English >> Thanks for coming back.
>> 感谢你再次回来。拉姆，你随时都受欢迎。来见见我的好朋友查马斯·帕里哈皮蒂亚，我们这里四人组的一员。大卫·萨克斯没能赶来。拉姆，在参议院方面，目前看来是民主党43席，共和党31席。我认为这看起来就像此前预测的那场海啸般的惨败。民调似乎是准确的，Polymarket预测市场当然也很准确。拉姆，你从今晚的结果中得出了什么结论？如果民主党真的横扫众议院和参议院，我们能对他们有什么期待？
Original English >> Thanks for coming back. You're always welcome, Rob. And uh meet my good friend Chimath Pia Hapatia, part of our quartet here. David Saxs couldn't make it. Uh Rahm, we have a uh what looks to be uh right now 43 Democrats, 31 Republicans on the Senate. I think this is looking like the tsunami shellacking that was predicted. The polls seem to have been correct and certainly polymarket correct. Ram, what do you take away from tonight? And then what can we expect from the Dems if they do sweep uh the House and the Senate?
听着，我想说几点。一是，我认为你们将会看到全美各地的民主党人胜选。我认为事实将是，这是共和党人输掉的选举，这是一场否定，但这是民主党巩固这个联盟的机会。我们必须明确，我们可以让这成为一个获胜的联盟：强大的民主党投票率，加上我所谓的非MAGA共和党人，或者投票给民主党的约翰·麦凯恩、米特·罗姆尼式的共和党人——他们在南卡罗来纳、堪萨斯以及其他国会选区占有更大的份额——再加上独立选民。我们必须让这次选举不是交易性的，而是变革性的，
Original English Look, I mean, a couple things. One is I think the you're going to see Dems all over the country win. Uh I think that the truth is it will be that the Republicans lost it was repudiation, but that's an opportunity for Democrats to solidify this coalition. And we've got to be clear that we can make this the winning coalition of strong Democratic turnout, what I call non-Maga Republicans or John McCain, Mitt Romney Republicans who voted for Democrats and larger share in places like South Carolina, Kansas, and other kind of congressional districts and independents. We got to make this election not transactional but transformational
>> 在道德伦理上做实事，在关税减免上做实事，在最低工资上做实事，让法案不仅能为他们投票支持的变革支付首付款，同时还能建立并重建信任，而不是仅仅把它挥霍在我们民主党版本的唐纳德·特朗普《饥饿游戏》上。切实去干实事。我在竞选活动中总是用这个例子。
Original English >> things on ethics, do things on tariff relief, do things on a minimum wage that makes bills not only that we downpays on the change they voted for and also builds and rebuilds the trust uh and doesn't don't just spend it on our version of Donald Trump's Hunger Games, a Democratic version. Actually do the work. And I always use this out on the campaign trail.
你们知道，“亚伯拉罕·林肯号”航空母舰上的官兵连续在海上航行了322天。洗手间坏了。食物变质了。而国会开会的时间还差一点才到100天。
Original English Uh you know, the kids on the Abraham uh Lincoln aircraft carrier were at sea for 322 days straight. Bathrooms didn't work. It was ransom food. The Congress was in session for just shy of a 100 days.
你们为什么不能像“亚伯拉罕·林肯号”上的官兵那样投入工作？通过一项涉及政府三大部门的全面道德法案。禁止股票交易。禁止行政部门人员参与预测市场。年收入超过一百万美元的人必须设立强制性保密信托。设立强制性任期限制，或者设定年龄上限——我说75岁。第五条，我称之为贾里德·库什纳法则：你在政府任职期间不得收受外国资金；离职后，必须有两年的休止期才能接受任何外国投资。因此对我来说，这将是一种证明你确实听到了选民呼声并且打算切实干实事的方式。另一件事是，
Original English Why don't you show up like the kids on the Abraham Lincoln? pass a comprehensive ethics bill that affects all three branches of government. Ban stock trading. Ban participation in prediction markets for the executive branch. Mandatory blind trust if you make over a million dollars. Mandatory term limits or age out uh I say 75 fifth what I call the Jared Kushner rule. You can't be in government and taking foreign money. And when you get out you have a two-year hiatus before you can take any foreign investment. So to me that would be a way to establish that you actually heard the voters and and are going to do the work. The other thing is
看看佛罗里达，看看
Original English look at Florida, look at
### 候选人质量与党内初选 德克萨斯州，看看北卡罗来纳州，再看看南卡罗来纳州。在这些州各自的参议院层面上，唐纳德·特朗普都挑选了候选人。我们当时拥有非常优秀的候选人。而我20年前——在2006年负责民主党夺取众议院的努力时——就一直这么说：候选人的质量归根结底是非常非常重要的，而且往往被低估了。我认为总统插手南卡罗来纳州挑选了达琳·格雷厄姆（Darlene Graham）——一个我们本无权去竞争的地方，我们有了一位出色的候选人；厄尔那里是安妮·特莱里科（Annie Telerico）对阵帕克斯顿（Paxton），而不是对阵现任参议员科宁（Cornin）；马歇尔，北卡罗来纳州有点像把蒂利斯（Tillis）挤走，给库珀州长提供了一个真正的机会，厄尔，而他——我想从我听到的情况来看——刚刚获得了胜利。所以在这些例子中，每一个都有总统介入的情况。佐治亚州是另一个例子。奥索夫（Hassaf）原本被认为处于战场州，他刚刚大胜了柯林斯（Collins）。又是一个在拥挤的初选中被总统挑选出来的候选人。我认为这传递了一个信息，即总统如何插手中间的初选，挑选了候选人，结果却让共和党人拿出了最弱的一面。
Original English Texas, look at North Carolina and look at South Carolina. In each of those states Senate wise, Donald Trump picked the candidate. We had very good candidates. And I always said this when I was chair 20 years ago in 2006 for the Democratic efforts to take the house. quality of candidates in the end of the day is very very important and is underappreciated and I think the president interjecting in South Carolina picking Darlene Graham a place we had no right to compete we had a great candidate uh there Annie Telerico versus Paxton as opposed to incumbent Senator Cornin Marshall North Carolina kind of chasing Tillis out giving Governor Cooper a real chance uh and he I I think just got called from what I said. So in each of these cases, the president being involved, Georgia is another example. Hassaf was supposed to be a battleground. He just clean clock on Collins. Again, a candidate picked by the president in a crowded primary. I think that is a message as it relates to how the president in uh got in the middle of the primary, selected a candidate, and put the weakest foot for the Republicans forward.
>> 也许你这里有个问题。对。
Original English >> Maybe you have a question here. Yep.
>> 是的。你提出了一个非常有趣的策略，我只是想深入探讨一下。你的观点——我只是想确保我准确地表达了——是你认为这些在两院都拥有多数席位的人应该立法，并且积极拥有一个议程，他们可以齐心协力、召开党团会议、达成一致，然后在这两个时期推进立法，而不是像很多人认为在这样的时刻会发生的那样，即两年的跛脚鸭期。每个人都把目光投向2028年，大家有点竞相奔向出口。你能解释一下为什么这如此重要吗？
Original English >> Yeah. You had a really interesting strategy which I just want to double click on. Your perspective. I just want to make sure I uh represented accurately is you think that these guys with majorities in both houses should be legislating and actively have an agenda that they can kind of come together, caucus on, agree on, and then start pushing forward legislation in these two periods versus what a lot of people think happens in this in a in a moment like this, which is a lame duck two years. Everybody focuses on 28. People kind of run to the exits. Can you just explain why that's so important?
### 两党联合治理与伦理改革 >> 嗯，让我梳理几件事。第一，我挑选的每一件事都会团结民主党人并分裂共和党人。这是在政治层面上，而且对2028年很重要。
Original English >> Well, let me walk through a couple things. One is everyone I picked would unite Democrats and divide Republicans. That's on the political level and that's important to 2028.
第二点是我不想在2026年仅仅是把选民租过来。在许多州，独立选民和被我称为非MAGA的共和党人打算做一件他们平时不会做的事，那就是把票投给民主党。要肯定那一票。不要用完就扔。
Original English And B is I don't want to go in and having just rented the voters in 2026. A lot in a lot of states, independents and what I call non-MAGA Republicans are going to do something they don't normally do, which is vote Democrat. Affirm that vote. Don't just use it and dump it.
>> 那意味着什么？
Original English >> What does that mean?
>> 我完全赞成举行跟查资金流向（follow the money）的听证会。我想知道委内瑞拉的钱在哪里。我想知道就卡塔尔赠送那架飞机达成了什么交易。跟着钱走。但如果你们最终走向弹劾而不是伦理改革——如果是弹劾，共和党人会团结起来；如果是伦理改革，你将赢得半数共和党党团成员与你一起投票，你将有所作为，而且你将彻底整顿最高法院、联邦分支、行政部门、内阁以及众议院和参议院。并不是说这里只有一个政府分支需要大扫除。因此——
Original English >> I'm all for hearings on follow the money. I want to know where the Venezuela money is. I want to know what deal was cut as it related to the you uh Qatar giving that plane. Follow the money. But if you end up going impeachment versus ethics reform, impeachment Republicans will solidify on ethics reform. You're going to get half the Republican caucus to vote with you and you're going to make a difference and you're going to clean up the uh the Supreme Court, the federal branch, the executive branch, the cabinet, and the House and the Senate. It's not like only one branch of government needs a good cleaning here. And so
>> 你认为，你认为伦理……？抱歉，请继续。
Original English >> do you think that do you think that the ethics? Sorry, go ahead.
>> 我的观点是，在那种情况下，当你拥有那种跨党派的大多数投票时，你就能证明你是在治理。
Original English >> My point is in that case when you have that kind of big bipartisan vote, you'll affirm that you're governing.
>> 提高最低工资也是一样，你会得到很多共和党人的选票；关税减免，很多共和党人的选票，而民主党人将在这一努力中团结一致。所以在对我来说，在每一个这样的案例中——你知道，我借鉴了一段历史——在1991年，乔治·米切尔给老布什送去了一份税收和预算案，结果总统违背了他的承诺，最终在初选中引来了帕特·布坎南（Pap Buchanan），并为比尔·克林顿在92年的胜利做好了铺垫。一年后，在2007年，我们给小布什送去了一项儿童医疗保险法案，60名共和党人和我们投了一致票。它成了巴拉克·奥巴马作为总统签署成为法律的第二项法案，而当小布什否决它时，有60名共和党人与我们投了赞成票。所以对我来说，什么能团结民主党人？什么能分裂共和党人？你又如何通过行动告诉那些对你抱有希望的选民你在取得进展？
Original English >> The same thing with the raising the minimum wage, you're going to get a lot of Republican votes, tariff relief, a lot of Republican votes, and the Democrats will be united in that effort. And so to me, in each of those cases, you know, and I draw a piece of history in 1991, George Mitchell sent George Bush 41 a tax and budget bill and the president broke his pledge, ended up getting Pap Buchanan in primary, and Bill Clinton was set up in '92. One year later, in 90 in 2007, we send George Bush 43 a kids healthc care bill and 60 Republicans voted with us. It becomes the second bill that Barack Obama signs into law as president and 60 Republicans voted with us when George Bush vetoed it. So to me, what unites Democrats? What divides Republicans? And how do you make progress in telling the voters that took a lark on you?
你在伦理改革上是与民主党建制派步调一致，还是认为这将演变成一种情况，即——你知道——我的意思是，作为党内的资深政治家，你提出的建议在实践中似乎双方都不怎么想要，比如股票交易禁令之类的。
Original English Are you um aligned with the Democratic establishment on ethics reform or do you think that this is going to be a situation where you know it I mean you're an elder statesman of the party suggesting something that in practice it doesn't seem like either side wants a lot of for example like the stock bans and whatnot.
不，我认为绝不可能。首先，作为一个曾在埃兹拉·克莱因（Ezra Klein）的播客上——那是在2024年12月，也就是整整22个月前——那期播客对我的大标题就是“笨蛋，问题是腐败”。我说过腐败将成为主要问题，因为唐纳德·特朗普当时非常明确地表示，这将是一个充满贪婪、怨恨和浮夸的任期。而他完全兑现了他要做的事情。那种贪婪——而且我是来自芝加哥的，我的标准很高。我从未见过像这样的腐败。而且它是明目张胆的。他告诉你：“我第一任期所做的一切从未得到赞誉。算了吧。”他们现在简直是在大捞特捞。
Original English No, I think there's no way when you look at the first of all is somebody who on a separate Ezra Klein's podcast December of 2024, literally 22 months ago, the headline of that podcast with me was it's the corruption stupid. I said that corruption is going to be the major issue because Donald Trump was very clear that this was going to be a tenure of greed, grievance, and grand. And he's fulfilled exactly what he was going to do. And the greed is and I'm from Chicago. I got a high standard. I've never seen corruption like this. And it's blatant. And he tells you, "I never got credit for what I did in the first term. Forget about it." And they've just been going to town now.
>> 弗里德伯格（Freeberg）。
Original English >> Freeberg.
>> 嗯。
Original English >> Yeah.
>> 哦，好的。
Original English >> Oh, okay.
>> 是的，让他说完吧。
Original English >> Yeah. Let me let him finish.
>> 好的。继续，继续说。讲完它。我只是不想把时间用光。
Original English >> Okay. Go ahead. Go ahead. Finish. I just want to run out of time.
>> 我……我认为……
Original English >> I I think
>> 你不能……民主党人在最后的三个星期里竞选，如果我的计算没错的话，70%的广告都是关于腐败的。如果你对此无所作为，在我看来，你就会白白浪费公众给你的这一次重新审视的机会。
Original English >> you can't The Democrats ran on the closing three weeks, 70%, if my math is right, of the ads were about corruption. If you do nothing about it, you're going to have uh in my way, in my view, wasted this second look that the public is giving you.
作为一个政党，你不能在20码线上就提前庆祝触地得分。如果你把这当作20码——就像我今晚说的，共和党人将遭受惨败。他们将会输掉。我们在2027年所做的事情将决定我们是否赢了。
Original English You cannot spike the ball as a party on the 20 yard line. If you do this 20, as I kind of say tonight, the Republicans are going to get a shellacking. They're going to lose. What we do in 2027 will determine whether we won.
### 腐败、民生与医疗成本 你认为需要做些什么来帮助美国人民？追究腐败有助于治理人民的政治，但是生活成本、工资增长乏力、普通美国人眼下所面临的挑战，正是人们如此愤怒、感到如此被抛在后面的原因。如果这种立法结构造成了特德·克鲁兹所说的僵局，那能做些什么呢？你认为能做些什么？进入下一个周期，你会如何向党内领导层建言——
Original English What do you think needs to be done to help the American people? Chasing the corruption helps with the politics of the governing of the people, but the cost of living, the lack of wage growth, the challenges that the everyday American is facing right now, the reason that people are so angry and feel so left behind. What can be done if this legislative structure causes what Ted Cruz causes a calls a gridlock? What do you think can be done? How would you advise the the party leadership going into this next cycle
>> 去切实解决美国人民的问题？
Original English >> to actually solve the American people's problems?
>> 你把这说得好像腐败在这边，而生活成本在另一边。它们其实是同一枚硬币的正反面。举个例子，总统得到了一架价值4.5亿美元的卡塔尔赠送的空军一号，而你得到的是4块钱。汽油每加仑50美分。他一心盯着自己的凯旋门（arch），而你的家庭连金拱门（Golden Arches）的一顿饭都吃不起。片刻都不要认为腐败只是某种哈佛式良治的公义事业，而与经济毫无关系。美国人民认为，他们之所以负担不起，是因为其他所有人都在捞钱；而且这次选举与2006年不同，对总统有一种愤怒情绪，因为他曾承诺把钱放进你的口袋，但大家每天却看着他把钱装进他自己的口袋。所以不要把它们割裂开来。现在谈到第二点——
Original English >> You you're making it as if the corruption is over here and the cost of living is over here. They're actually heads and tails of the same coin. By way of example, president gets a $450 million Qatari gifted Air Force One, you get four bucks. 50 cents a gallon of gas. He's fixated on his arch and your family can't afford a meal at the Golden Arches. Don't think for a moment that corruption is some common cause Harvard good government and has nothing to do with economy. The American people think the reason they can't afford is because everybody's else making money as and this election unlike ' 06 has a level of anger towards the president because he promised money in your pocket and they watch him every day putting money in his own pocket. So don't separate. Now two
>> 关于你谈到的更长期的问题。虽然许多媒体适当地关注汽油、日常百货等，但推动美国人通胀的第一大问题是医疗保健费用。
Original English >> to your longer term problem. While a lot of the media focuses appropriately on gas, groceries, etc., the number one issue that's driving Americans on inflation is health care costs.
4000万美国人通过信用卡刷卡支付医疗保健费用。这是个人破产的第一大原因。
Original English 40 million Americans put health care costs on their credit card. It's the number one reason for personal bankruptcy.
而且保费正以两位数的速度上涨，而收入却停滞不前，
Original English And you have premiums going up at double digits and incomes are stagnant,
>> 对吧？还不算公用事业费率，不算汽油价格，以及所有其他不断堆积的开支。医疗费用是……当你去思考，如果你去跟人们交谈——我走遍了这个国家的每个角落——医疗费用是人们最关心的。这……听着，作为一个曾两次与保险公司和医疗行业较量过的人——一次是在克林顿总统任内的儿童医疗保健，然后是奥巴马总统任内的平价医疗法案（ACA）。保险公司的商业模式可以说完全是围绕“拒绝”（no）这个词构建的，而你支付保费则是建立在“同意”（yes）的前提之上。这之间存在错配，
Original English >> right? Not counting utility rates, not counting gas prices, everything else that's piling on. Health care costs are the d when you think when if you go talk to people, which I have been in all corners of this country, health care costs is what is top of mind. And it's and look, I'm going to be as somebody that's taken on the insurance companies and the healthcare industry twice. One for kids healthcare under President Clinton and then a ACA for President Obama. The insurance company's business model is literally structured around the word no and your payments on premiums is based on the premise of yes. There's a mismatch here,
>> 对吧？
Original English >> right?
>> 所有医院费用的25%都花在保险理赔的管理上。该系统需要进行一次良好的重组，以使人们的利益朝着更好的医疗保险覆盖、更好的医疗效果看齐，更重要的是，理顺该行业的经济……
Original English >> 25% of all hospital costs are driven over administration of insurance claims. The system needs a good restructuring to align people's interests towards better health care coverage, better health care results and more importantly where the econ were the kind of citence of the industry.
>> 两党能……是的，两党能在此达成一致吗？我的意思是我直觉上确实听到双方都在谈……
Original English >> Can can both parties Yeah. Can both parties align on that? I mean I I do think intuitively I've heard both sides speak in the
就在你刚才讲的这方面。你知道，在医疗保险中，保险的商业模式归根结底是按成本抽取一定比例。因此，随着成本上升，如果你抽取的是成本的百分比，你赚取的利润就会更多。所以，保险的商业模式从根本上就是与让所有东西变得更贵保持一致的。
Original English same vein as you're speaking. you know, knowing that insurance, the insurance business model in health insurance is to take a percentage of the cost ultimately. So, as costs go up, if you're taking a percentage of the cost, you make more profit. So, the insurance business model is fundamentally aligned with getting everything to be more expensive.
>> 而且我还要说，低效的政府服务在其中也扮演了一定角色，不过我们可以改天再辩论那个问题。但是……
Original English >> And I would also argue that there's a role that inefficient government services play in this, but we can have that debate another time. But like,
>> 是的，我们可以谈那个，但是难道他们就不能在这上面达成一致吗？我是说，你觉得这上面会发生什么？好吧，让我来看。作为参考，保险理赔领域规模达1.5万亿美元。我想你们每个人都是商界人士。从中减掉10%，也就是1500亿美元，其实并不难。几乎单靠预先批准领域就能差不多做到这一点。再次强调，医院每收入一美元，就有25美分专门用于行政管理成本，而这全都是围绕保险合规产生的。这里存在经济利益上的错配。 在药品再进口方面，包括药物和价格两方面，你同样可以达成共识。这样就会有更大的竞争。在透明度方面你也可以做更多的事情，因为推高保险数字的是医院成本，而医院的数字与保险直接相关。所以这些都是你可以做的事情的例子。 我想就像我说的，我当年为了克林顿总统让1000万儿童获得医疗保健而与保险公司对抗。显然，我也通过《平价医疗法案》为奥巴马总统做了我所做的事。这里是有空间的。你可以尝试去搞全民医保（Medicare for all）。那意味着其他任何事情都不会发生。我认为那不会实现。或者去做我认为非常可行的两党共识事项，去解决成本结构问题，让你获得更好的覆盖。
Original English >> yeah, we can have that conversation, but can't can't can't they get aligned on this? I mean, what what do you think happens on this? Well, let me look. By way of reference, the insurance claim area is $1.5 trillion. I think every one of you are business people. Taking 10% out of that, $150 billion is really not hard. You can almost do it almost on just the pre-approval area. And again, 25 cents out of every dollar for the hospitals is dedicated to administrating administrative costs, which is all around insurance compliance. There's a mismatch in economics. You can get consensus also in and around uh I would do it on reimpportation pharmaceutical both drugs and prices. So there's greater competitiveness. there's greater things you could do on transparency and since the hospital costs that are driving the insurance numbers and the hospital numbers are directly related to insurance. So those are examples of what you could do. And I think like I say this, I took on the insurance companies to get 10 million kids healthcare for President Clinton. Obviously did what I did for President Obama through ACA. There's a place here. You could try to do Medicare for all. That means nothing else will happen. I don't think it will happen. or do what I think are very doable bipartisan things that get at the cost structure and allow you to get better coverage.
### 参议院阻挠议事与两党合作 >> 罗恩（Ron），我能问你一个技术性问题吗？嗯……
Original English >> Ron, can I ask you a technical question? Um,
>> 是的，该你了。我得走了，不过是的，你还可以提一两个问题。请讲。
Original English >> yeah, it's your I got to get going, but yes, you can get one one or two more. Go.
>> 你会建议参议院废除阻挠议事（filibuster）吗？
Original English >> Would you advise the Senate to eliminate the filibuster?
好吧，我不是合适的人选，因为我是前众议员，只要有点常识的人都知道，任何来自众议院的人都会认为参议院是个宪政错误。呃，听着，我不会那么做，但我会……不，我不会那么做。那不适合我，但我会说不。但你有很多东西需要证明，否则我们就要开始在阻挠议事上做例外豁免了，意思是划出你们不能围绕其进行阻挠议事的事项。所以，你有一个执政的机会。
Original English Well, I'm the wrong guy since I'm a former House member and anybody knows anything. Anybody from the House thinks the Senate is a constitutional mistake. Uh, look, I would not do that, but I be I No, I wouldn't do that. And that's not for me, but I would say no. But you have a lot to prove, otherwise we're going to start carving things out on the filibuster, meaning things that you can't filibuster around. So, you have a ch chance to govern.
拉姆（Rahm），既然我知道你得走了，让我在最后问你一个问题。呃，有很大一部分温和派。我认为你显然属于那一群体。我认为本播客上的大多数人也是如此。嗯，不过我不代表他们说话，但大体上，呃，我们现在的国家在两党中都存在极端派。在一方，有“美国优先”和极其阴暗的角色、反犹太主义种族主义者、尼克·富恩特斯（Nick Fuentes）那一整伙人。然后是在民主党内，我们现在有了这些社会主义者，然后也有反犹太主义和各种呃丑陋的东西。有没有办法让人们回到中间立场并就这些问题展开合作？你过去显然亲自做到过这一点，但我们该如何让国家回到那个状态呢？
Original English Rahm, let me ask you a uh final question here since I know you have to go. Uh there's a large number of moderates. I think you're obviously in that group. I think most of the people on this podcast are as well. Um but I don't speak for them, but generally uh we have a a a country now that has extremes in both parties. On one side, you got America first and really dark characters, anti-semitic racist, Nick Fuentes, that whole cohort. And then in the Democratic party, we now have these socialists and then also anti-semitism and all kinds of uh ugly stuff. I is there a way to get people back to the center and working together on these? You you've obviously done that in the past yourself, but how do we get the country back there?
>> 我在后特朗普时代的世界里，
Original English >> My in postTrump world,
>> 对吧？我的普遍观点是寻求共同立场，但我也知道如何坚持自己的立场。
Original English >> right? My general view is to seek common ground, but I also know how to hold my ground.
>> 好的。所以我的态度——而且我当市长谈判时也是这么做的：告诉我你在这件事上想做什么，我来告诉你我想做什么。你告诉我你能接受什么，我来告诉你我能接受什么。我会告诉你什么是绝不能接受的，然后我们在此基础上妥协。这是我的普遍做法。我认为这并不意味着就是温和派。这意味着你在倾听、理解，并在可行的地方予以包容。
Original English >> Okay. So my attitude and I did this when I was mayor when I was negotiating. Tell me what you want to do here. I'm going to tell you what I want to do. You tell me what you can live with. I'm going to tell you what I can live with. I'm going to tell you what I'm not going to live with and we'll compromise on this. That's my general approach. Do I think it doesn't mean that it's moderate. It means you're hearing, listening, and where you can accommodating.
>> 好吧？
Original English >> Okay?
>> 但是有些事情你是不会退让的。现在你看，作为参考，我认为金里奇（Gingrich）在95年政府停摆中的所作所为，绝对是个错误。三年后，我们达成了平衡预算协议。所以事情就是，你知道，坚持你的立场，但随后寻求共同立场。法案就是这样诞生的。
Original English >> But there are certain things you won't go towards. Now look, by way of reference, I think what Gingrich did in the government shutdown in '95, absolute mistake. Three years later, we got to a balanced budget agreement. So things were, you know, hold your ground, but then seek common ground. And that's where the bill.
>> 好的，各位。
Original English >> Okay, guys.
### 选举动态与两党法律战 >> 谢谢你，拉姆·伊曼纽尔（Rahm Emanuel）。我相信将来还会听到拉姆更多的发声。他还没宣布参选呢，弗里德伯格（Friedberg），呃，但基于你的鼓励，我相信他正在考虑这件事。你们两个人呃在节目中已经有了一些精彩的互动。呃嘿，非常期待我们的下一位嘉宾加入进来。呃我们有…… 哦，我们还没有，还没连上。好的。呃那么我们来看看这里的最新情况。呃参议院是43比32。呃我们再把那个调出来。呃北卡罗来纳州看起来呃将归属民主党。库珀（Cooper）赢了。呃，而且呃，查马斯（Chamath），你对两党之间没完没了的法律战有什么看法？显然，呃，上次特朗普竞选连任时有一堆案件，他们针对了他。你可以辩称其中一些案件，你知道，他呃可能踩了雷或者犯了几个错误，但很明显，其中许多案件纯粹是因为他们想阻止他竞选总统。 特朗普总统随后自己也展开了大量的法律战，去追究那些曾经追究他的人。现在大家预期在特朗普总统这第40……第47届任期的后半段过渡期里，这一切又要重新上演了。而且……而且这是我认为任何美国人都不想看到的。这两党有没有什么退路可以停止互斗，重新为美国人民工作？你怎么看？
Original English >> Thank you, Rahm Emanuel. I'm sure be hearing more from Rahm in the future. He hasn't announced yet Freedberg, uh, but based on your encouragement, I'm sure he's thinking about it. You two guys have uh had some great moments here on the show already. Uh hey, really excited for our next guest to jump on. Uh do we have Oh, we don't. Not yet. Okay. Uh so let's get an update here. Uh 4332 for the Senate. Uh we'll pull that up again. Uh North Carolina looks like it is uh going to the Democrats. Cooper has won. Uh, and uh, what are your thoughts here, Chimamoth, on the neverending lawfare between these two parties? Obviously, uh, there were a bunch of cases last time uh, when Trump was running for a second term, they targeted him. You could argue some of the cases, you know, he uh maybe had stepped in it or made a couple of mistakes, but it was pretty obvious that a number of the cases were specifically because they wanted to stop him from running for president. President Trump, he's then gone out and done a bunch of lawfare himself going after the people who went after him. And now there's this expectation in this interim second half of President Trump's 40 the 47th term here that it's all going to start all over again. and and this is something I don't think any American wants to see. Is there any off-road for these two parties to stop fighting each other and get back to work for the American people? What are your thoughts?
>> 嗯，我是说，我……我希望他们能找到呃一种走光明正道的方法，并开始专注于2028年。我认为，如果……如果……如果拉姆所说的对民主党人而言其实相当明智，
Original English >> Um I mean I I hope that they would find um a way to take the high road and start to focus on 28. I think if the if the if what Rom says is actually quite smart for the Democrats
>> 而且我之前没有考虑过那个选项，那就是你想通过切实按照候选人们所要求的方向立法，来回馈那些倒向你们的摇摆选民。嗯，不过我很难理解的是，民主党这边的候选人群体跨度如此之广。现在还不清楚贯穿他们所有人的实际立法主线究竟是什么。所以，但如果他们能开党团会议把这一点弄明白，我之前倒没把这当作一个可行的选项。我预想他们会采取的做法在某种程度上是焦土策略，也就是尽力拖慢总统的步伐，并在尽可能多的周围人身上贴上红字标签，嗯……以便让他们嗯…… 几乎就像是处于非常困难的境地，无法在2028年有效参选。
Original English >> and I hadn't considered that option which is you want to reward the swing voters that came over to you by actually legislating along the lines of what the candidates have asked for. Um the thing that I struggle to understand though is the candidates are of such a wide spectrum on the Democratic side. It's not clear what the actual legislative through line is through all of them now. So, but if they can caucus and figure that out, I had not considered that as a viable option. My presumed approach that they would take is sort of a scorched earth approach, which is just to try to slow the president down and to put a scarlet letter on as many people around um so that they um are almost like um in a very difficult position and not in a position to run effectively in 28.
>> 再说一次，那就是我认为他们会采取的策略。我认为可能存在这样一个版本，呃……总统在专注于自己的政治遗产时，也许可以协商出某种谅解，也就是存在一套或许你知道是居中、大多数人都会赞同的理念，而这既给民主党人带来胜利，同时也给总统带来胜利。杰森（Jason），也许这就是你协商出退路的方式。
Original English >> Again, that that that's what I thought that their strategy would be. I think that there's a version of this maybe where um the president in focusing on his legacy can maybe negotiate some sort of an understanding which is there's a set of concepts that are maybe you know down the middle and most people would agree with and that gives the Democrats win but it also gives the president to win. Maybe that's Jason how you negotiate an offramp.
>> 嗯，我认为接下来的六个月局势会非常多变，因为你会看出目标的基调是什么。不过我认为民主党人必须团结起来，条理清晰地制定出一套策略。你们究竟想达成什么？是焦土策略之路，还是通往2028年回馈摇摆选民之路？我不认为你能两者兼顾，因为我认为其中一条路所需的立法力量不会给另一条路留下多少余地。
Original English >> Um I think it's going to be very dynamic in these next six months because you're going to see the tenor of what the goal is. I think the Democrats have to come together though and coherently develop a strategy. What is it that you want to accomplish? Is it the scorched earth pat or is it the reward the swing voters path going into 28? I don't think you can do both because I think the the legislative horsepower that's required for one doesn't leave much room for the other.
>> 是的，正如你所说的，我认为必须选择后者。呃，社会主义者和很多左翼人士做得非常好的一点，就是不断说：“嘿，这关乎可负担性，以及，你知道，停止对外战争，以及呃提高最低工资，并且就是把重点真正放在可负担性上。”并且一遍又一遍又一遍地重复这一点。 弗里伯格（Freeberg），上一次呃民主党试图把特朗普送进监狱时，他们所做的只是把他塑造成了一个超级英雄和殉道者，大家全都站出来说：“嘿，这不公平。我们必须把这个人选回来。”所以，你本以为民主党人本应吸取教训，意识到做一个只知反特朗普而毫无主张的政党呃会是一个错误。你怎么看
Original English >> Yeah, I think you got to go with the latter as you're saying. Uh, one of the things, uh, the socialists and a lot of the folks on the left have done really well is just say, "Hey, it's about affordability and, you know, stopping foreign wars and, uh, increasing the minimum wage and just getting really focused on affordability." And saying that over and over and over again. Freeberg, the last time uh, the Democratic Party tried to put Trump in jail, all they did was make him a superhero and a martyr, and everybody came out on force to say, "Hey, this is unfair. We got to vote this guy back in." So, you'd think the Democrats would have learned their lesson that being the anti-Trump party and not having ideas uh would be a mistake. What's your take
关于两党如何向前推进，或许开始为美国人民服务，以及这是否存在哪怕一丝可能性
Original English on how these two parties move on and maybe start working for the American people and if there's even a chance of that
>> 面对法律战等手段。你认为毫无希望吗？我不知道是不是会出现某种“携手合作”的局面。我认为接下来的一年——拉姆说得对，会起到相当关键的作用，特德也表达了同样的看法。我认为2027年是选定民主党总统候选人的一年。他们只会尽力维持下去。我认为民主党人在进入2028年时会非常精于算计、深思熟虑，因为他们会希望确保内部保持一致，并且会希望确保民众继续将他们视为化解自身愤怒的良药。
Original English >> visa v lawfare etc. You think there's no hope? I don't know if there's like a working together um thing that's going to happen. This I think the next year, Rahm is right, is going to be quite instrumental in figuring and Ted said the same thing. I think 2027 is the year where the Democratic nominee is selected for for president. They're going to just try and hold on. I think the Democrats are going to be very calculating and and thoughtful um going into 28 because they're going to want to make sure that they keep themselves aligned and they're going to want to make sure that the the people continue to view them as the antidote uh to to their anger.
>> 而且，他们会试图找到一个同样愤怒、同样强硬、并且能为所有感到未被倾听的人发声的人。进入2028年，我认为他们选定的人就是这样一个人。这也是为什么我长久以来一直在说，我认为AOC最终会出现在那张选票上。
Original English >> And uh they're going to try and find someone that's going to be angry and that's going to be strong and that's going to speak up for everyone that feels unheard. and going into 2028, I think that's who they're going to pick is that person. It's why I've said for a long time, I think AOC is gonna end up in that on that ballot.
>> 那对他们来说将是灾难性的。
Original English >> That would be disastrous for them.
>> 我不知道。我不知道那是否属实。两年前你也可以对埃尔萨德这么说。对今晚获胜的很多候选人，你同样可以这么说。我不认为那是事实。我认为大势已经转变。我再次主张，这个国家的生活成本已经过高，主要是因为政府在我们的GDP和支出中所占比例过高。我认为要摆脱那种通胀循环和薪资停滞循环是非常困难的。而且我认为对大多数人来说，经济正在陷入停滞，他们眼看着自己的资产缩水，他们负担不起医疗保健，等等等等。我认为对当今的大多数美国人来说，没有比社会主义更好的替代方案了。是的，
Original English >> Um I I don't know. I I don't know if that's true. You could have said the same about Elsad two years ago. You could have said the same about a lot of these candidates that are winning tonight. I don't think that that's true. I think that the tides have turned. Uh, I will argue once again that the cost of living in this country has gotten too high primarily as a function of the government being too high a percentage of our GDP and our spending. And I think it's very hard to get out of that cycle of inflation and that cycle of stagnant wages. And I think that the economy is stalling out for the majority of people and they're seeing their assets decline and they can't afford healthcare and on and on and on. And um I I don't think that there's a good alternative to socialism for the majority of Americans today. Yeah,
>> 我认为那就是目前的看法，而且我认为正因为没有好的替代方案，
Original English >> I think that that's the view and I think that because there isn't a good alternative,
>> 我认为席卷一切的时刻会在2027年开始发生。
Original English >> I think that the the sweeping up moment starts to happen in 27.
### 平台策略与嘉宾连线 >> 我给过他们建议，非常简单：看看特朗普是怎么做的。他建起了一个巨大的帐篷。他把所有人都邀请到华盛顿特区，包括商业领袖等等、名流。你必须有一个大帐篷，而且你必须争取赢得中间群体。他只要邀请蒂姆·库克，邀请埃隆·马斯克，邀请任何想在接下来的第48届总统任期中支持美国的人，就能做到这一点。你们大家应该直接邀请所有人参与进来。民主党人搞过那种纯洁性测试。他们把所有人都逐出了党派。他们极其苛刻挑剔，结果他们输了，并且一直在输。也许他们能领悟到这一点：他们不必在党内的每一个议题上都与每个人保持一致，只要开始招募人们与他们携手联手即可。在“All-In”大选之夜直播中，接下来是我们的朋友谢恩。谢恩，你来了吗？他来了。嘿谢恩，你好吗？你静音了。谢恩·科普兰来了。Polymarket的创始人，我们的特别嘉宾。谢恩，你在吗？测试，一、二，
Original English >> I uh I've given them my advice very simple. Uh take a look at what Trump did. He created a huge tent. He invited everybody to Washington DC, business leaders, etc., celebrities. You got to have a big tent and you got to try to win that middle. And he can do that by just inviting Tim Cook, inviting Elon Musk, inviting uh anybody who wants to support America in this next uh presidency in the 48th term. You guys should just invite everybody to be part of it. The Democrats had that purity test. They kicked everybody out of the party. They were super critical and they lost and they kept losing. Maybe they take the note that uh they don't have to agree with everybody on every issue in their party and just start recruiting people to uh join forces with them. Next up on the all-in election night live stream, our guy Shane. Shane, are you here? There he is. Hey Shane, how are you? You're on mute. Shane Copelan is here. The founder of Poly Market, our special guest. Shane, are you there? Testing one, two,
>> 伙计们。感谢邀请我。
Original English >> guys. Thanks for having me.
>> 哦，好的。那么，我们得先说这件事。尼克斯五场拿下了。
Original English >> Oh, okay. Well, we got to get it out of the way. Nicks in five.
>> 谢恩的技术技能跟他爷爷一个水平。解不开静音——
Original English >> Shane has the technical skills of his grandfather. Can't unmute the
>> 尼克斯五场拿下。谢恩，尼克斯大胜之后感觉如何？尼克斯大胜之后感觉怎么样？
Original English >> Knicks in five. Shane, how are you feeling after the Knicks win? How you feeling after the big Knicks win?
>> 难以置信。简直太不可思议了。我们大老远跑去圣安东尼奥跑了两次。
Original English >> Incredible. It was incredible. We lugged out to to San Antonio twice.
>> 是的，确实去了。我当时看到你了。你都能进到球场内场地板上。我当时退后了三排，但我看到你能进入球场内场，跟冠军们一起庆祝。
Original English >> Yes, we did. I was I I saw you there. You were able to get on the floor. I was uh three rows back, but I saw you were able to get on the floor and celebrate with the champions.
>> 攒了很久才等到那个时刻。
Original English >> Had a long time to save up for that moment.
### 预测市场的运作与操纵疑虑 >> 是的，那确实相当惊人。所以谢恩，告诉我们，今晚在Polymarket的交易席位上感觉如何？这肯定要处理海量的交易量，承受巨大的压力。之前有很多议论。让我们直奔主题：最棘手的问题在于，这些市场、我们的预测市场是否正在受到操纵，以使特定政党受益？换句话说，俄罗斯人是否能创建一堆账户，开始押注某个政党，制造势头，并让人们在该州不去投票？你们是如何应对这类可能性的？我不知道这类手段是否曾经有人尝试过。是否有人曾试图通过该平台为某个政党制造摇摆以及恐惧、不确定和怀疑？你们又是如何保护平台免受此类滥用的呢？
Original English >> Yes, it was uh quite quite amazing. Uh so Shane, tell us what's it like tonight at the desk at Poly Market. This must be a lot of volume to deal with and a lot of pressure. There was a lot of talk. Uh and let's just get right to it. The hardest issue are these markets, our prediction markets being manipulated in order to benefit certain parties. In other words, could the Russians create a bunch of accounts and start betting on one party, create momentum, and get people to not turn out in that state? What is the way that you deal with these kind of um uh possibilities? I don't know if they've been tried. Have people tried to swing and create uh fear, uncertainty, and doubt for one political party with the platform? And how do you protect the platform against that kind of abuse?
>> 是的，这是一个很好的回顾。我想说的是，显然在早期，对于Polymarket和预测市场，最强烈的批评始终是：嘿，要是有人在单边投入巨额资金怎么办？而且，我相信大家都记得，大约两年前的上一轮周期中，一直有盛传的说法，称特朗普的报价被抬高了。我认为人们忽略的一点是，在Polymarket上，当你看这些市场时，它们基本上是候选人的份额，而如果该候选人获胜，该份额就值一美元。这意味着在任何给定的时刻，它的交易方式与股票没有太大区别，人们在其中买入和卖出；假设价格交易在25美分，这就隐含着有25%的可能性发生，因为它是以25美分的交易价格去博取一美元。你可以把25美分对应到0.25，把1美元对应到1。所以，你知道，那就是概率。我认为对Polymarket最大的误解，是觉得它有点像两边各有多少资金的跷跷板。它实际上的运作方式类似于股票交易，当你买入时，必须有其他人在卖出。所以我们看到的是，无论何时有人说“嘿，我们可以去把价格推高”或类似的事情，尤其是对于这类市场而言——在这些市场中，并没有一个人知道最终答案会是什么，对吧？这里有大量的数据，每个人都在努力做出自己最好的预测，判断将会发生什么，以及他们认为发生的可能性有多大。核心就在于，如果有人试图推高价格，他们基本上表达的是他们愿意支付高于市场价格的成本去购买该份额。因此你可以想象一下，嘿，如果你有一个汇聚了大量人群的市场，有专业交易员，有做市商机构，有坚信自己判断获胜几率模型的政治分析师。如果有人说“嘿，我有大量的钱，我就是要以高于市场价的价格购买”，一旦被察觉——他们几乎能在瞬间察觉到——另一侧通常就会涌入大量力量，去接下那一笔交易的反向头寸。因此市场会重新平衡——
Original English >> Yeah, it's it's a good throwback. I I would say that obviously in the early days with poly market and prediction markets it was always like the most the most vocal criticism was hey what if someone just put a ton of money on one side and yeah I'm sure as you guys all remember the last roundabout two years ago there was always the big story that that Trump Trump's price was being inflated. I think the thing people miss is that a poly market when you look at these markets they're basically shares of candidates and the share becomes worth a dollar if that candidate wins. And what that means is that at any given moment it trades not too dissimilar to a stock where people are buying and selling it and the price let's say it's trading at 25 cents. It it's implied that it's 25% likely to happen because it's trading at 25 cents to win a dollar. And you can map 25 cents to 25.25 and you can map $1 to one. So it's, you know, that's the probability. And I think the the biggest misconception with poly market is that it's sort of like a seessaw of how much money is on either side. What it actually is is it it trades like a stock where when you're buying, someone else has to be selling. So what we've seen is anytime someone has said, "Hey, we can go and push the price high or something like that, especially for these types of markets where there's like it's there's not someone who knows what the answer is going to be, right? Like there's a lot of data. Everyone's going and trying to make their best their best, you know, uh like prognosis of what's going to happen, how likely they think it is to happen." And the whole thing is that if someone's trying to push the price up, what they're basically saying is they're trying to pay more than market price for the share. So you can just think like, hey, if you've got a marketplace and there's tons of people, there's pro traders, there's market making firms, there's people who are political analysts who really believe in their in, you know, their sort of models of who's likely to win. If someone's like, "Hey, I have a ton of money and I'm just going to pay above market price." there's usually this flood on the other side once they notice and it can they can notice damn near instantly um to go and take the other side of the you know of that trade. So the market rebalances is the
>> 基本上瞬间完成再平衡。而且，你知道，当人们在概念层面更加抽象地讨论预测市场时——在这些想法真正落地实用之前——他们曾说过，越是有人试图操纵市场，市场就越有动力变得更加精准，因为这为那些能够合确定价的人提供了更大的经济诱因，促使他们进场并可以说把交易敲定下来。所以，我认为曾存在这样的循环：每逢重大选举，无论谁落后，我都会收到大量的仇恨信息；你知道，我不得不做出这种解释。而到了现在，你基本上不再那么频繁地听到这种论调了，因为我认为有太多的人，无论你的政治立场如何，都经历过Polymarket这枚硬币的正反两面：一种是Polymarket看好你的候选人，你欣喜若狂，看着那价格一路上涨，感觉良好；而反面则是，嘿，这东西不可能准。我认为随着时间的推移，我们已经建立起了足够的信誉，证明Polymarket是对的。
Original English >> rebalances basically instantly. And you know what people said about prediction markets when they were talking them more about more about them abstractly like before these this idea was really practical was that the more people try to manipulate the market the more of an incentive it is for the market to become more accurate because there's more financial incentive for people who can price it correctly to come on board and go and book the trade so to speak. So, I think that there was this cycle of every time there was a big election, whoever was losing, I got a lot of hate messages from um and you know, I had to kind of give this spiel. And at this point, you kind of don't hear it as much anymore cuz I think so many people, you know, whatever your political affiliation is, like you've kind of been on either side of the polymer market coin where it's like one is poly market is favoring your candidate and you love it and you look at it and that price is going up and you feel good. Um, and the inverse is, hey, this thing can't be right. And I think that we've built up enough credibility over time that uh you know poly market's right.
>> 那么拉丁美洲的选举是怎么回事？有几个Polymarket的交易结果最终站在了错误的一边，谢恩。你对这些参与者当时的情况有什么看法吗——
Original English >> What happened with the um Latam elections? So there was a number of poly markets that ended up being on the wrong side of those trades chain. Do you have a view on you know where those participants
……是什么？他们为什么会像之前那样下注？我的意思是，Polymarket 过去一直挺有预测性的，但在南方发生的这些选举中，它却一直大错特错。
Original English were? Why they bet the way they did relative I mean poly market has been quite predictive in the past but it was pretty wrong consistently in these elections that happened in the south.
>> 没错。嗯，拿巴西大选来说，我相信我们一周前讨论过这个。你知道，当数据显示某人的价格高于另一个人时，并不意味着结果就板上钉钉一定会发生。在民调中，如果你听说某个人将获得——你知道的——70%的人喜欢某个候选人，而按照常理你就应该相信这点，那就预示着那位候选人将大获全胜。但70%的胜率意味着，你知道，如果你去抛10次硬币，另外那位候选人会有3次获胜。
Original English >> Yeah. Well for the Brazilian election which is I'm sure we were talking about a week ago. Uh you know when it says someone has a higher price than the other person it doesn't mean it's like a lock that that's what's going to happen. So in polling, if you hear that someone's going to get, you know, 70% of people of people like one candidate and that's what you know you're supposed to believe, that's indicative of that that candidate's going to run away with it. But 70% likely means that, you know, if you go and flip the coin 10 times, three times the other candidate's going to win.
>> 而且 Polymarket 的妙处不在于价格高的人总能赢，对吧？因为事情根本就不是那样的。当你进去看任何事情的赔率时，就像你看一场比赛的赔率，冷门获胜的情况经常发生。这并不意味着市场的定价不准确。而且我认为我们在巴西选举中看到的事情非常有意思，选举当晚所有人都在盯着看，然后就出现了最高法院的延期。再说一次，我不会去评价巴西政治，因为我懂什么呢？但最高法院确实给出了这个延期，每一个巴西人——因为我认识的每一个巴西人那一整晚都在给我发 Polymarket 的截图，他们说大家都在看 Polymarket 等等。而在最高法院延期的那一刻，你看到博索纳罗的胜率直接暴跌，因为市场基本上把这次延期解读成了“噢，要出怪事了”。到底发生了什么，超出了我的能力范围，但我更多地把它看作是当时局势解读的实时晴雨表。要从噪音中提炼出信号太难了，尤其是对像我这样的人来说。我知道你们大家都是自己的政治专家，但对我而言，我只是想知道会发生什么，所以我可以直接看这个网站，看着情况实时变化。是的，你看，博索纳罗的胜率之前显示他很可能会赢，接着不知不觉间，它就对这个进展做出了极其直接的剧烈摆动。在那一刻，人们意识到，噢，这真的很关键。
Original English >> And what's cool about poly market is not that whoever has the higher price always wins, right? Because that's just not how it works. when you go in and you look at the odds of anything, when you look at an odds of a game, the underdog wins, you know, it happens all the time. Um, that doesn't mean that the market was priced inaccurately. And and I think that the thing that we saw with Brazil that was so interesting was everyone was looking at it the night of and then there was this extension. And again, I'm I'm not going to be one to opine on Brazilian politics because what do I know? But there was this extension by the Supreme Court and everyone who was Brazilian cuz everyone I know who was Brazilian was sending me poly market screenshots all the night. They're like everyone's looking at poly market etc etc. Um and the moment that the Supreme Court extended you saw Bolsinaro's odds just tank because the market was basically interpreting this extension as like oh something funk is about to happen. um what it is that happened above my pay grade, but uh I looked at it more as a real-time barometer of the interpretation of what was going on at that point. And it's so hard to distill the signal from the noise, especially, you know, for for people like me. I know you guys are all your you're your own political experts, but like for me, I just I kind of just want to know what's going to happen so I can just look at the site and see things change in real time. And yeah, you know, like the odds of Bolsinaro, it said he was likely to win. And then before you know it, it was swinging in response very explicitly to this this progress. Um, and you know, at that point, people realized, oh this is this is really material.
>> 自从你上了这档节目以来，在过去可以说一两年里活跃交易的市场中，你认为最让你惊讶的是什么？我的意思是，我们总能看到一些深度惊人的市场，在各种冷门琐事上都有大量的交易活动。对你来说，最让你感到惊喜和惊讶的是什么？
Original English >> What do you think um has surprised you the most about markets that are trading actively in the last call it year or two since you've been on the show? I mean, we always see examples of markets that are surprisingly deep, a lot of activity happening on on random stuff. I mean, what's been most interesting to you that that surprised you?
>> 嗯，我认为最酷的事情是，当你去思考这些全球市场时，比如你看看石油，前几天石油暴跌，你去问别人为什么石油跌了？如果你去问五个非常聪明的人，他们很可能都会给你不同的答案，或者你会得到两三种不同的答案。而它实际上是大量的人在脑子里对这些不同的主题建立了自己的预测市场，他们根据自己认为的不同事件发生的可能性赋予了各自的概率。由此，他们推导出了自己认为的价格应该是多少，并且他们都在据此进行交易。通过让人们既能去交易这个市场，又能看到构成石油这么大的市场价格的实际重要输入因子的市场价格，一方面能对底层资产实现更好的价格发现，帮助人们更好地理解可能会发生什么，以及主导资产价格之所以这样波动的变动杠杆是什么。但其次，另一件事是，这些东西其实早就已经在被隐式地交易和定价了。只是之前一直没有一个平台能够将其汇聚起来，并在需求端和供给端拥有合适的分布渠道。所以，我们能够做到这一点，并成为许多这些主题的某种指标，尤其是地缘政治方面，真的很酷，就像……
Original English >> Well, I think the the coolest thing is when you think about these global markets, like you look at oil and there's just the when when oil the other day oil went down a ton and you're like asking people why is oil down? If you ask five people who are really smart, they'll all most likely give you different answers or you'll get two or three different answers. Um, and what it really is is a ton of people who have their own polymer markets in their head about these different topics and they're ascribing their own probabilities of what they think the likelihood of these different things are. And from that, they're deducing what they think the price should be. And they're all trading on that. And by letting people go and trade the market as well as look at the price of the market for act the actual important inputs that go into the price of such a big market like oil um it just goes and and one leads to better price discovery for the underlying asset and help people understand better what's likely to happen and what are the moving levers in terms of why the price of the overarching asset uh is is fluctuating way that it is. But secondly, the the other thing is just like these things are already implicitly being traded and priced. Um, but there hasn't really been a venue that's been able to aggregate that and have the right distribution on the demand side and the supply side. So, it's been cool that we've been able to do that and become sort of a a marker for a lot of these topics, especially with geopolitics and like just
### 勒布朗·詹姆斯与嘉宾道别 >> 呃，谢恩，勒布朗是怎么回事？你们和勒布朗在搞什么合作？
Original English >> what's uh Shane, what's the deal with LeBron? What are you guys doing with LeBron?
额，你知道，他是我们的合作伙伴，他也出演了广告。而且，你知道，每当他来到麦迪逊广场花园比赛时，我是绝不会为他加油的，因为我是尼克斯队的球迷，但是，你知道，他是 GOAT（史上最佳）。
Original English uh you know he's uh he's he's a a partner of ours and he's he's been in ads and um you know whenever he comes to this comes to the garden I'm never going to cheer for him because I'm a Knicks fan but uh you know he's the goat.
>> 是啊，对于尼克斯球迷来说，“那个决定”确实挺让人难受的，当时对我们来说太心碎了。我们从来没有原谅过他。但他确实，你知道，他是仅次于迈克尔·乔丹的 GOAT。
Original English >> Yeah, it's kind of hard for Nick fans after the decision that was so heartbreaking for us. We never forgave him. But he is uh you know he's the goat after Michael Jordan.
>> 迈克尔·乔丹排第一或第二。
Original English >> Michael Jordan one or two.
>> 我不知道谢恩心里到底是怎么想的。
Original English >> I don't know exactly what Shane was thinking.
>> 不，我是说对谢恩这一代人来说，他……你知道……
Original English >> No. I mean for Shane's generation he you know
>> 谢恩这一代人。
Original English >> Shane's generation.
>> 不，谢恩没赶上看迈克尔·乔丹打球。乔丹在花园球馆打球的时候你多大？谢恩，你曾在花园球馆见过他打球吗？
Original English >> No. Shane didn't get to see Michael Jordan. How old were you and Jordan was playing in the garden? Did you ever see him in the garden Shane?
>> 当然没见过。
Original English >> Of course not.
>> 当然没见过。是啊，当时才两岁。
Original English >> Of course not. Yeah. It was two years.
>> 我以前常去 StubHub 网站，老兄，就只是刷门票看，然后心想：“天哪，总有一天。”
Original English >> I used to just go on StubHub, man, and just scroll through the tickets and just be like, "Man, one day."
>> 总有一天。没错。接着谢恩就坐上了场边席。“听着，谢恩，祝你继续取得成功。感谢你在 Polymarket 所做的一切。它确实让这个世界变得更加有趣，而且我认为人们能拥有这个资源真是太棒了。它真的改变了媒体领域的一切，也改变了世界上那些试图做出明确决策的人的一切。”我们先让谢恩下线了。顺便说一下，说到 Polymarket，在过去40分钟、30分钟里，得克萨斯州州长的选情刚刚翻转成了吉诺·吉诺……
Original English >> One day. Exactly. And then Shane's court said, "Listen, Shane, continued success. Thanks for uh everything you do at Poly Market. It certainly has made um the world much more interesting and I think it's fantastic that people um get to have this resource. It's it really has changed everything in the media space and for people trying to make crisp decisions in the world." We'll drop Shane off. By the way, speaking of poly market, in the last 40 minutes, 30 minutes, Texas governor has just flipped Gino Gino.
### 得克萨斯州选情与史蒂夫·班农连线 >> 不会吧。噢，阿博特要下台了吗？哎哟。
Original English >> No. Oh, we not going to have Abbott. Oi.
>> 格雷格·阿博特要出局了。
Original English >> Greg Abbott on his way out.
>> 我……我看了选区划分，所有的蓝区数据都报上来了。
Original English >> I I looked at the districtricting is all the all the blue districts have reported.
>> 噢，
Original English >> Oh,
>> 我觉得这个结果稳不住。嗯，但如果它真的稳住了，我只想说得非常清楚。记得我跟你们说过，只有一件事能击沉美国经济。
Original English >> I don't think that this holds. Um, but if it if it were to hold, I just want to be very clear. Remember I told you guys there's only one thing that syncs the US economy.
>> 是数据中心。
Original English >> It's the data centers.
>> 是 AI 交易。而要击沉 AI 交易，唯一的办法就是击沉数据中心。而唯一……
Original English >> AI trade. And the only way to sync the AI trade is to sync the data centers. And the only
>> 噢，上帝啊。
Original English >> Oh, Lord.
>> 又来了。
Original English >> Here we go.
>> 我们简直是把婴儿和洗澡水一起倒掉了。
Original English >> We just threw the baby out with the bathwater.
>> 而且眼下真正关键的电力都在西得克萨斯。
Original English >> And all the power that matters right now is in West Texas.
>> 是啊。拿出你们的支票簿吧。我不知道，伙计，我也许得去新加坡或者东京了。嘿，伙计们，我知道你们不想让他上节目。我知道你们封禁了我们的下一位嘉宾查马斯。你们拒绝让他来，但作为世界上最伟大的主持人和终身执行制片人，我越过了你们的头顶，邀请了邋遢的史蒂夫·班农过来。他来了，独一无二的邋遢史蒂夫·班农。史蒂夫·班农，兄弟，你最近怎么样？
Original English >> Yeah. Get your checkbooks out. I don't know, man. I may need to go to Singapore or Tokyo. Hey guys, I know you didn't want him on the program. I know you guys banned our next guest, Chimath. You guys refused to have him on, but as the world's greatest moderator and executive producer for life, I went over your heads and I invited sloppy Steve Bannon to come on. Here he is, the one, the only Sloppy Steve Bannon. Steve Bannon, how are you doing, brother?
>> 我很兴奋，因为这是在你们被带到特别法庭受审之前，我最后一次见到你们了。
Original English >> I'm excited because this is the last time I'm going to see you guys before you're brought in before a tribunal.
>> 我的意思是，你们的好日子到头了。“全球排名第一的播客”这个骗局。这是一场不错的骗局。已经持续了好多年，
Original English >> I mean, this is the end of the road for you guys. I number one podcast in the world scam. It's been a good scam. It's gone for years,
>> 比我们预期的还要久。赚了大笔的钱，
Original English >> more than we thought. A lot of money,
>> 但很快你们就要站上法庭，为你们的罪行承担责任了。咱们实话实说吧。
Original English >> but soon you are going in front of a tribunal and you're going to have to account for your crimes. Let's be honest.
>> 难以置信。
Original English >> It's unbelievable.
>> 该是付出代价、为犯罪行为承担责任的时候了。
Original English >> Be the time to to pay the piper and to account for the criminal behavior.
>> 蒂姆，告诉我们，告诉我们发生了什么。到底在发生什么？
Original English >> Tim, tell us tell us what happened. What is happening?
>> 好的。
Original English >> Yeah.
>> 嗯，到底在发生什么？我不知道。呃，唐纳德·特朗普最大的支持者之一塔克·卡尔森两天前站出来说他正在考虑对伊朗动用核武。这正在发生。我的意思是……
Original English >> Well, what is happening? I don't know. Uh, one of Donald Trump's biggest supporters, Tucker Carlson, came out two days ago and said he's considering nuking Iran. That's happening. I mean,
>> 不，不，不。我的意思是，我非常确切的意思是，这……这是什么？这是给民主党的投票吗？这是反对特朗普的投票吗？这是针对生活成本的反对票吗？还是什么？你如何解读它？
Original English >> no, no, no. Meaning, what what I mean very precisely is like what what is this? Is this a vote for Democrats? Is this a vote against Trump? Is it a vote against the cost of living? Is it what? How do you interpret it?
>> 之前就有人说过，我们正在经历一场伪装成文化战争的经济战争。这意味着我认为那些对自身经济状况缺乏信心的人，正在把意义强加在许多根本不存在这些意义的文化事物上。而且我认为这是一张针对生活成本的反对票。我认为
Original English >> It's been said before, we have an economic war that's disguised as a culture war. meaning that I think people that don't have the confidence in their economic standing are attaching meaning to a lot of things culturally where there is none. And I think it's a vote against the cost of living. I think
从某种程度上说，这是在对人们所看到的、体制内目前固有的腐败投反对票——唐纳德·特朗普获胜时，声称自己要去纠正这种腐败。我认为这也是在投反对票，去反对，你知道，唐纳德·特朗普不幸演变成了什么，那就是体制本身。
Original English it's a vote against in some ways the corruption that people see is inherent in the system right now that Donald Trump won. um claiming that he was going to correct. I think it's a vote against, you know, the the what what Donald Trump unfortunately has become, which is the system.
>> 这是一个反体制的投票。呃，同样是这批选出特朗普的人，是因为他们想要更便宜的汽油、更便宜的杂货，他们不想和伊朗开战。这根本不是……没人想要，没人想要那样。呃，有10个人想要，他们给特朗普捐了很多钱，但没人想要这个。呃，我认为这在一定程度上是针对人们自身处境、经济处境的投票，这就是大家投票的原因。这也是为什么我认为将会出现向民主党人的大规模倒戈。
Original English >> This is a vote against the system. Um the same people that elected Trump because they wanted cheaper gas, cheaper groceries, they didn't want to go to war with Iran. This was nobody wants nobody wanted that. Um 10 people wanted it and they they gave Trump a lot of money, but nobody wanted this. Um I think it's a vote a little bit against people's circumstances, their economic circumstances, and that's why people vote. And that's why I think you're going to have a massive shift to the Democrats.
民主党那边有什么令人担忧的地方吗？看到那种社会主义，你看到那边也有某种激进主义在酝酿，就像我们在另一边看到的“美国优先”运动一样。你对马蹄铁理论有什么看法？你之前谈过这个，基本上，我想你谈过一点关于，你知道，帝国在这里的终结。有扭转局面的办法吗？此时此刻，你对这个国家的各种极端现象怎么看？人们买不起房，结不起婚，生不起孩子，生活不下去，他们就会在政治光谱的某一个极端上以某种方式走向激进化。我是说，显而易见。呃，投票给马姆达尼（Mamdani）的人是四年制大学毕业生，他们背负了沉重的学生贷款。他们生活在一座开销非常昂贵的城市里。他们觉得自己正在失去立足之地。呃，他们无比兴奋地去投票给某个将要恢复某种平衡的人，不管那会不会发生，随便吧。但这就是激发人们站出来的原因。你说的不仅是穷人或在职贫困人口，甚至是工人阶级。有很多白领大学毕业生投票给民主社会主义者（DSA）候选人，因为他们深陷债务泥潭。他们一无所有，而且他们觉得以后也永远不会拥有。特朗普本该去解决这些关切的。如果他不解决，别人就会来解决。
Original English Any concerns on the Democratic side? see the sort of socialism, you see some of the radicalism over there as well kind of brewing up the same way we see on the other side the America first movement. What's your what's your take on the sho horseshoe theory? You've talked about it before and essentially I I think you've talked a little bit about, you know, the the the end of the empire here. Is there a way to turn it around? And what do you think about the the extremes in this country at this point? People can't own a house, get married, have children, live, they're going to become radicalized on some in some way to some end of the political spectrum. I mean, that's obvious. Um, the people that voted for Mom Donnie were four-year college graduates who took out a lot of student loans. They're living in a very expensive city. They feel like they're losing ground. Um, and they were incredibly excited to vote for somebody who was going to restore some type of balance, whether that happens or not, whatever. But that's what motivated people to get out there. You're not talking only about the poor people or the working poor or even the working class. There's a lot of white collar college graduates that are voting for the DSA candidates because they're mired in debt. They don't own anything and they don't feel like they ever will. And Trump was supposed to address those concerns. And if he doesn't, somebody else will.
>> 是的。所以……
Original English >> Yeah. And so
>> 我知道你们怎么想的。我们就在所有那些愤怒的人头上再建一个数据中心吧。再放一个……
Original English >> I know what you guys think. Let's just build another data center on top of all of those people that are angry. Put another
>> 对，他们可以在数据中心工作。
Original English >> Yes, they could work in the data center.
>> 再放一个数据中心。我知道你们张口闭口就是数据中心。没完没了。
Original English >> Put another data center. I know it's always the data centers with you. It never ends.
>> 没完没了。我们之前在想中央公园。呃，蒂姆，就这么干吧。
Original English >> It never ends. We were thinking Central Park. Uh Tim is do it.
>> 地理位置太中心了。
Original English >> It's so central.
>> 我知道你说在中央公园建数据中心是在开玩笑，但你那么说的时候，查马斯的眼里闪过了一丝光芒……
Original English >> I know you're kidding about putting a data center in Central Park, but there was a sparkle in Tramat's eye when you said that
>> 那是感激不尽的。那是假装不出来的。
Original English >> that cannot be thanked. that can't be fake.
>> 我的意思是，
Original English >> I mean,
### 寡头责任与日益加剧的不满 >> 嗯，我是这么看的。我……而且我以前也说过。如果你回到镀金时代，蒂姆，我……我同意你的看法，在某个时刻，那个时代的领军寡头们围坐在一张桌子旁，他们分配了造福社会的责任，他们明白，除非你创造出广泛能感受到的经济收益，否则没有人能赢。所以，你知道，派出洛克菲勒，派出卡内基，派出J.P.摩根，所有这些人必须去做些事情。如果你把那个时刻与当下的时刻进行对比，正如你所指出的，你有少数几家公司的象征，这实际上意味着几千名个别员工赢得了这些图腾。我认为弗里德伯格是这么称呼它的，我觉得非常准确。而你没有看到任何广泛的获益。这……这显然正在向每个人席卷而来，呃，我认为起初他们以为特朗普总统是解药，也许现在他们说的是对立面才是解药，并且他们会继续寻找更极端的版本，直到打破这个体制。你……你认同这个吗，还是不认同？
Original English >> well, here's here's what I will say. I I and I've said this before. If you go back to the Gilded Age, and I I agree with you, Tim, at some point, the leading oligarchs of that era sat around in a table, and they allocated responsibility for societal good and they understood that unless you created economic gains that were far-felt, nobody wins. And so, you know, you dispatch Rockefeller, you dispatch Carnegie, you dispatch JP Morgan, and all these folks had to do stuff. And if you compare that moment to this moment, to your point, you have these symbols of a handful of companies, which really means a handful of thousands of individual employees winning these totems. I think that's what Freeberg called it, which I think is very accurate. And you don't see any broad-based gains. And it's uh it's it's clearly catching up with everybody where um I think at first they thought that President Trump was the antidote and maybe now what they're saying is the other side is the antidote and they're going to keep looking for the more extreme version until they break the system. Do you do you buy that or No.
>> 是的。我是说，我……我认为这完全属实。我认为如果一个政党不去解决这些关切，另一个政党就会去解决。这就是今晚的全部故事——如果你是一名共和党战略专家，你手上没有任何可以拿来推销的东西。你知道，你……你在卖什么呢？我是说，这就是现实。就像在这个政府上任两年后，你在向人们推销什么？而在我的评价中，民主党人在两年前输掉了，因为他们在兜售……呃，你知道，这种非常像是……你知道，全都是关于民主。那非常具有象征性。民主党人在兜售象征主义。民主在选票上。他们一直在说所有这些大话，但他们没有去解决那些核心关切。共和党人现在也处于同样的境地，他们也在兜售象征主义，但人们是要去给车加油的。他们是要去杂货店的。他们要走进去，你知道，付房租，因为他们付不起房贷。这就是为什么共和党人在两年后拿不出一套连贯的言论。很多人正在把看起来像是这场在伊朗的盲目冒险与国内不断上涨的生活成本联系起来。
Original English >> Yeah. I mean I I think I think that's absolutely true. I think that if one party does not address these concerns, another party will. And that's the entire story of tonight is if you're a Republican strategist, you had nothing to sell. You know, you what were you selling? I mean, that's the reality. Like two years into this administration, what are you selling to people? And the Democrats in my estimation lost two years ago because they were selling um you know this very kind of you know it was all about democracy. It was very symbolic. The Democrats were selling symbolism. It democracy was on the ballot. They were saying all of these things but they weren't addressing those core concerns. The Republicans are now in the same position where they're selling symbolism, but people are going to fill up their car. They're going to the grocery store. They're going in, you know, to pay their rent because they're not paying a mortgage. And that's why the the Republicans don't have a coherent message two years in. And a lot of people are drawing a line between what seems to be this misadventure in Iran and the rising costs at home.
>> 而且当五角大楼表示，我们可能会迎来一波网络攻击，基地需要具备90天的自给自足能力。还有欧洲——我知道这不直接……你知道，不一定属于美国的事——但欧洲在告诉人们你们应该囤积食物。
Original English >> And when you have the Pentagon going, we could have a wave of cyber attacks and bases need to be self-sufficient for 90 days. And you have Europe, and I know this isn't directly, you know, necessarily American, but you have Europe telling people you should stockpile food.
我是说，这并不能让人们充满极大的信心。我们……我们用这种你们将要失去工作、机器人要来了的预测，让大家感到极其不安。我……我得谈谈喜剧界正在发生的事情。蒂姆，我知道你在所有的群聊里。你和所有那些伟大的喜剧演员在一起……
Original English I mean, this doesn't fill people with overwhelming confidence. We're we're making people extremely uncomfortable with these predictions that you're going to lose your jobs, the robots are coming. I I got to get into what's happening in comedy circles. I know you're on all the group chats, Tim. You're with all the great comedians in the
### 喜剧界与奥弗顿之窗 >> 我很喜欢你们有多热爱喜剧。看到你们有多热爱，对我来说太不可思议了。简直……难以置信你们有多喜欢。就好像……
Original English >> I love how much you guys love comedy. It's so wild to me how much you love. It's like it's unbelievable how much you love. It's like
>> 我们是你的下属。你可以随时打压我们。
Original English >> we're your subs. You can d us anytime.
>> 我们是你的死忠粉。我们是你的……
Original English >> We are your stance. We are your
>> 我很喜欢这种反差：他们刚刚爆出帕尔默·拉奇（Palmer Luckey）将要拥有基因工程机器狗，而你却在问“喜剧圈里发生了什么”？
Original English >> I love that it's like they just came out Palmer Lucky is going to have genetically engineered robot dogs and you're like what's going on in the comedy circles?
>> 是的。好吧，不，这是我的具体问题。奥弗顿之窗即将收窄一点。当托尼·欣奇克利夫（Tony Hinchcliffe），你知道，还有呃，乔·罗根不能再用那个词的时候，Comedy Mothership俱乐部会发生什么？当这个窗口收窄一点时，圈子里会发生什么？
Original English >> Yes. Well, no, here's my specific question. The Overton window is about to close a bit. What's going to happen at the mothership when Tony Hinchcliffe, you know, and uh Joe Rogan can't use the word anymore? What's going to happen in circles when this closes a bit?
>> 我觉得他们会没事的。你知道，我是个幸存者。你知道，我是个名副其实的幸存者。我明天就套上一件罩袍，
Original English >> I think they'll be all right. You know, I'm a survivor. You know, truly I am a survivor. I'll throw on a burka tomorrow
>> 然后去干该干的事。
Original English >> and I'll do what needs to be done.
>> 对。你会穿上那件……
Original English >> Yes. You'll wear the
>> 罩袍搞定。我会穿着罩袍去明尼苏达，跟阿卜杜勒·谢赫·穆罕默德·本·西姆，管他叫什么名字的人在一起。我根本不在乎。我会去那里做我必须做的一切。我到底在乎什么呢？我是说，
Original English >> burka done. I'll be in Minnesota with a burka on with Abdul Shik Muhammad bin Sim, whatever his name is. I don't even care. I will be there doing everything I have to do. What the hell do I care? I mean,
>> 宝贝，我是一个幸存者。我入这一行很久了。而且我会冒着华氏45度以下的天气走出去，和15个索马里人一起办一场日托喜剧义演，因为我才不在乎……
Original English >> I'm a survivor, baby. I've been in this business a long time. And I will get out there in sub45 degree weather with 15 Somali and we will do a daycare comedy benefit cuz I don't give a
>> 你得拿下那个。你得保住那些商业演出。
Original English >> You need to get that. You got to keep those corporate gigs alive.
>> 你在清真寺接过商演吗？你干过那事了吗？你的底线在哪里？那里的喜剧表演。你能演吗？
Original English >> Have you done a corporate gig at a mosque? Have you done that yet? Where do you draw the line? The comedy there. Can you do it?
>> 托……我被沙特阿拉伯解雇了，因为我为他们的契约劳工项目进行了辩护，我认为这项目对他们很有成效。然后呃，他们把我解雇了。
Original English >> To I was fired from Saudi Arabia because I offered a defense of their indentured servitude program which I think was productive for them. And um they fired me.
>> 我被解雇了。
Original English >> I was fired.
>> 不是因为同性恋。他们对同性恋没意见。
Original English >> Not for being gay. They were fine with gay.
>> 他们觉得那没问题。
Original English >> They were fine with that.
>> 没意见。嘿，蒂姆，就在呃我们彻底脱离喜剧话题之前，我只想再问一个关于你在呃今晚所看到的情况的问题。还有你见过的其他东西，你有没有见过除社会主义之外卖得好的替代方案？外面有什么尝起来、看起来、闻起来不像社会主义，却看起来有希望奏效的东西？
Original English >> Fine with it. Hey Tim, just before um we get away too far from comedy, I just want to ask one more question around what you're seeing on this uh this night and what else you've seen, is there an alternative that you've seen that sells well that isn't socialism? What is out there that that that doesn't taste and look and smell like socialism that seems to be a shot at working?
>> 纳粹主义。
Original English >> Nazism.
>> 我的天啊。我是说我……我的意思是我不……我只是说那就是如果你想……如果你上网看，那些东西就是……我是说，呃那就是正在兴起的东西。
Original English >> Oh my god. I mean I I mean I don't I'm just saying that's if you want if you look on the internet those are the things that are I mean u that's what's taking off
>> 听着，永远能畅销的是这个：我不认为美国人是空谈意识形态的人，我不相信他们是，我不相信他们……我认为他们是务实的。很多美国人是务实的，并非所有人。呃，讽刺的是，你拥有的钱越多，你就变得越有意识形态色彩，你就越想去重塑一切，并且，你知道，重新设计一切，彻底改变……
Original English >> what Listen here's what's always going to sell I don't think Americans are ideologues and I don't believe they are I don't believe they're I think they're pragmatic a lot of Americans are pragmatic not all of them um the more money you have ironically the more ideological you become and the more you want to remake everything and you know re-engineer everything and revolutionize
一切。我觉得真正受欢迎的是——我觉得特里科（Terico）今晚在德克萨斯州大概会过得不错。也许我错了。
Original English everything. I think what sells really well is I think Terico's probably going to have a good night in Texas. Maybe I'm wrong.
>> 不。
Original English >> No.
>> 对。在我看来，现在受欢迎的是那种在经济上民粹、在文化上温和的民主党人。那种不会烦人地过度政治正确（woke）、不会把跨性别儿童问题摆在核心位置的人。一个在经济上走民粹路线、在社会议题上保持温和的人——顺便说一句，唐纳德·特朗普过去就是这样。是的。
Original English >> Yeah. What's selling to me is sort of a economically populous, culturally moderate Democrat right now. somebody who's not annoyingly woke, who's not going to, you know, be put put the trans child issue front and center. Somebody who's economically populous, socially moderate, which by the way was Donald Trump. Yes.
>> 所以这似乎是全国许多人所处的立场，因为我认为很多人觉得——我们再次谈到了经济层面，但在文化层面，他们想要抚养自己的孩子。他们有自己的价值观，希望尽力把这些价值观传递给孩子，而不希望在孩子学什么这件事上，感觉自己像是在和学校体制或州政府拔河。 因此我认为，那些转向经济议题、开始谈论医疗保健、开始谈论就业的民主党人，不要只谈非法移民，不要只谈文化议题。如果你能谈论工人阶级，谈论医疗保健，谈论就业——比尔·克林顿当年就是靠这些执政了八年。巴拉克·奥巴马也是靠着这些讯息执政了八年。如果你转回那个方向——
Original English >> So that seems to be where a lot of the country is because I think a lot of people feel that again we've covered the economics of it but culturally they want to raise their children. They have values and they want to try to give their values to their children and they don't want to feel like they're in a tugofwar with the school system or the state when it comes to what their children are learning. So I think the Democrats that pivot to economics and start talking about healthare, start talking about jobs, don't only talk about illegal immigrants, don't only talk about u you know the cultural issues. If you can talk about the working class, talk about healthcare, talk about jobs, that was how Bill Clinton got eight years in office. Barack Obama had eight years in office with those messages. if you pivot back to that
>> 那个同时又不带有与生俱来的——
Original English >> that while not being inherently
>> 社会主义色彩，比如废除监狱、取消警察之类的。
Original English >> socialist like get rid of prisons and get rid of cops.
>> 但我认为人们会认同那样的讯息。
Original English >> But I think people will follow that message.
### 泰勒·洛伦兹加入讨论 >> 说到不再烦人地政治正确，泰勒·洛伦兹（Taylor Lorenz）也和我们在一起。你好吗，泰勒？
Original English >> Speaking of no longer annoyingly woke, Taylor Loren is with us. How are you Taylor?
>> 很高兴见到你。
Original English >> Nice to see you.
>> 开个小玩笑啦，泰勒。别当真。你现在变得好酷基（based）啊——
Original English >> Just a little joke there, Taylor. Come on. You are so based now
>> 今晚。政治正确回来了。你们这帮人就要深陷在政治正确里了。到今晚结束时，你们都会在个人简介里加上人称代词的。
Original English >> tonight. Woke is back. You guys are going to be crawling in Woke. You're going to have the pronouns in bio by the end of the night.
>> 我们会有激光眼并在简介里加人称代词吗？跟她说说。蒂姆，蒂姆，泰勒，泰勒，我们在群聊里，老实跟你说吧，你突然变得非常酷基（based）。你似乎对那些政治正确感到厌烦了，你似乎在嘲弄那些荒唐事。大家都觉得你有了一个共和党男友，一个藏起来的共和党男友，而且你出于某种原因变得酷基了。这不是我说的，外面有这种说法。是不是发生了什么事，刺激得你终于受够了那些政治正确废话？这到底是怎么回事？
Original English >> Will we have laser eyes and pronouns in bios? Tell her. Tim, Tim, Taylor, Taylor, we um in the group chats, let me be honest with you, you have become suddenly very based. You seem annoyed with the woke You seem to uh be dunking on people for ridiculousness. Everybody seems to think that you have a Republican boyfriend, a hidden Republican boyfriend, and that you have become based for some reason. I didn't say this. It's a theory that's out there. Have is something happened that triggered you to have had enough of the woke nonsense? What's going on here?
>> 我喜欢政治正确废话。我爱死它了。我以此为生。我——你知道的，为什么不呢？让我们再次政治正确起来吧。大家都是那么——根本没人在乎这些。就像这全都是氛围感。共和党人正在输。我才不会在最后关头跟一群失败者站在一起，当他们正在——在2026年倒向共和党可不是什么明智之举。嗯是的，我的意思是，比起政党，我更在乎政策。我其实不属于任何一个党派，而且我已经有很长很长时间不站队了。
Original English >> I love the woke nonsense. I love it. I live for it. I You know, why not? Let's get woke again. People are so no one gives a about any of this. Like it's all vibes. The Republicans are losing. I'm not going to get on board with a bunch of losers at the 12th hour when they're they're fall getting on board with the Republicans in 2026. Not a winning move. Um yeah, I mean I I care more about policies than parties. I don't really affiliate with either either party and I haven't for a very very long time.
>> 什么？但现在说正经的，你人真开得起玩笑，而且我们都喜欢请你来，你对年轻一代有很好的洞察力。你可能听过蒂姆·狄龙刚才说的，嘿，住房问题，还有也许你的大学文凭有点太贵了。有一群人觉得政府似乎没有在为他们服务。正如年轻人们常说的，现在的“氛围感”是什么？因为据我在互联网上的了解，现在的氛围感已经不再完美了。那么现在的氛围感不再完美，它们到底是什么样的？现在的氛围感是什么？
Original English What? But now what's going on in all seriousness and you're you're such a good sport and we we all uh you know love to have you on uh you have good insights into younger generations. You may have heard Tim Dylan talking, hey we housing and maybe your degree was a little too expensive. You got a bunch of people who feel like maybe the the government isn't working for them. What's the um vibes as the kids say? because the vibes are no longer immaculate from what I understand on the interweb. So the vibes are no longer immaculate. What are they? What's the vibes?
>> 我觉得，是的，我认为蒂姆的看法百分之百正确，也就是人们在乎经济民粹主义的存在。显然特朗普，你知道的，多年来被特朗普运用得非常有效。现在你看到民主社会主义者也在某种程度上运用这一点。人们在乎改善自己的物质条件。人们不想听文化战争。他们真的很想知道，比如，我还能不能——你知道的，我的食品杂货会变贵吗？我买得起房子吗？我们是不是要把所有的钱都送到伊朗去？呃，希望不会吧。你知道的，我希望能留下自己的一部分薪水。所以，我觉得是的，我的意思是，我认为蒂姆对整件事的解读是正确的。而且我认为两个党派都没——我的意思是，特朗普一直能有效地运用这一点。现在你看到民主社会主义者也融入了这种话语。但你知道，民主党建制派讨厌这一点，民主党建制派在回应普通劳动人民的需求方面一直做得不好。
Original English >> I think Yeah, I think Tim is like uh 100% correct on his read that um people care about there's this economic populism. Obviously Trump, you know, it was very sort of wielded effectively by Trump for years. Uh now you see the Democratic socialists sort of wielding that. People care about improving their material condition. People don't want to hear about culture war They really want to know like, am I going to be able to are, you know, is my groceries going to cost more? Can I afford a house? Are we going to send all of our money to Iran? Uh, hopefully not. You know, I'd like to keep some of my paycheck. So, I I think yeah, I mean, I just think Tim read on it all. It's correct. And I think neither party has I mean, Trump has been able to effectively wield that. And now you're seeing the Democratic socialists feed into that type of language. um you know but the Democratic establishment hates that and the Democratic establishment has not done a good job of speaking to average uh you know working people's needs.
>> 好吧，最重要的是我们需要知道，蒂姆·狄龙是不是大叔（UNK），他是不是正在进入他的大叔时代（UNC era）？蒂姆现在身上有那种气质了吗？
Original English >> Okay, most importantly we need to know is Tim Dylan and is UNK is he going into his UNC era? Is Tim got that vibe about him now?
>> 那是什么？
Original English >> What is that?
>> 会给你解释的。蒂姆，你想按你的理解解释一下吗？现在在机场或者在公务候机楼（FBO）都有人这么叫你了。那是叔叔（uncle）的缩写。
Original English >> You it's going to be explained. Tim, you want to explain as you understand? You've been called now at airports when or at the FBO. It's shortened for uncle.
>> 没错。是的。
Original English >> Correct. Yes.
>> 一个有智慧的人。
Original English >> Someone who's wise.
>> 一个有年纪、有智慧的人，一个拥有……顺便说一句，我完全同意泰勒·洛伦兹的看法。我这辈子从没想过我会说出这句话。
Original English >> Someone who has age, wisdom, somebody who has. By the way, I completely agree with Taylor Lens. I never thought I'd say that in my life.
>> 我们现在来到了2027年。泰勒赢麻了。呃，我完全不介意当一个——我很自豪。
Original English >> Here we are in 2027. Taylor the Reds for the win. Um, I have no problem being an I'm I'm proud.
>> 这是泰勒大叔。
Original English >> This is Ank Taylor.
>> 其实，杰森，等一下。抱歉。我们回到正常的话题吧。我有一个问题。
Original English >> Actually, Jason, hold on. Sorry. Let's get back to something normal. I have I have a question.
>> 嗯。
Original English >> Um
>> 杰森的麦克风掉了。静音。
Original English >> Jason's lost the mic. Mute.
### 探讨未来两党候选人 >> 对，他——对，把他静音。我想向蒂姆和泰勒请教——
Original English >> Yeah, he's Yeah, mute him. I want to know from Tim and from Taylor,
>> 嗯，如果你们不仅要选出一名民主党人，还要选出一位你们认为最有可能采纳那个纲领的共和党候选人。你们认为会是谁？也许先从泰勒开始。两边都说说。
Original English >> um if you guys had to pick not just a Democrat, but then the Republican candidate that you think best has a chance of taking that platform. Who do you think it is? Maybe start with Taylor. Both sides.
>> 天哪。嗯，好吧，我的意思是，我觉得克鲁兹和卢比奥算是共和党那边的领跑者。我想B也在其中吧。我不知道谁能像——当特朗普，特朗普是一个如此非凡独特的人物。我不知道是否有人能像特朗普那样运用那种修辞说话，并像他那样建立起基本盘。所以我不知道。在民主党这边，我不知道。我觉得不是AOC。我知道人们想要——我知道党内的某些派系想要她。也许是她吧。但是她不像——我不知道。她没有伯尼那种劲头，你知道吗？就像伯尼真的是那种社会主义左翼运动的灵魂，我认为他试图把火炬传递给AOC，但我只是觉得她做不到。我不是说她不是——她毕竟不是一个老头。我不知道。但是她——是的，我不知道。我觉得没人——罗·康纳（Ro Khanna）正在尝试。他在尝试。
Original English >> Oh god. Um, well, I mean, I think like Cruz and Rubio are sort of like the front runners on, you know, the Republican side. I guess B is in there, too. I don't know who's going to sort of be able to see like when Trump Trump's such a singular figure. I don't know that anybody can speak to sort of speak in that rhetoric the way that Trump has and build the base in the way that he has. So, I don't know. On the Democrat side, I don't know. I don't think it's AOC. I know that people want I know that like certain factions of the party want her. Maybe it's her. I So, but she's not like I don't know. She doesn't have that Bernie energy, you know? Like Bernie really was the soul of that sort of like socialist uh like left movement and I think he's tried to kind of seed the torch to AOC, but I just don't think she can. I don't mean she's not she's not a quite old man. I don't know. But she I Yeah, I don't know. I don't I don't think anybody Roana is trying. He's trying.
>> 泰勒，你对罗·康纳怎么看？
Original English >> What's your take on Roana, Taylor?
>> 你知道的，
Original English >> You know,
>> 他真的具有广泛的吸引力吗？因为在我看来，他给人的感觉就像是——
Original English >> is he actually appealing broadly? Because to me, he comes off as
>> 他似乎对任何人都毫无吸引力。就好像，我搞不懂。他说了很多他认为会有用的话，但是——
Original English >> he just doesn't seem appealing to anyone. Like, I I don't get it. He says a lot of things that he thinks are going to work, but then
>> 那些话就是打动不了人。这就像一个糟糕的喜剧演员，蒂姆。就像他走上台，然后就像是——
Original English >> it just doesn't really land. It's like a bad comedian, Tim. It's like he gets up there and it's like
>> 讲了所有这些别人写的好笑话，结果没一个人笑。
Original English >> says all these great jokes that other people have written and then no one laughs.
>> 我——对。我觉得问题在于反复无常、毫无章法，对吧？我觉得我——听着，他做了一件很多民主党人没做的事，那就是很早就拥抱了数字化。早在几年前，他就经常去Twitch直播之类的平台。他今晚就上了哈桑（Hasan）的直播。很遗憾地通知你们，就观看人数而言，他的直播有点压过你们的直播了，但没有——
Original English >> My Yeah. My issue is the flip-flopping and all over the place, right? I think I like listen he did something that a lot of Democrats uh don't do which is he leaned into digital early. He was going on Twitch streams and stuff years ago. He was on Hassan stream tonight. Uh which I'm sorry to report it's mogging your stream a little bit in terms of viewership but no is
>> 我们只有5万。他有多少？500。
Original English >> we 're only 50,000. What does he have? 500.
>> 顺便说一句，他在收视人数上压过他们，也只是一直到他们在直播中被现场逮捕为止。说如果民主党人拿到足够的——
Original English >> By the way, it's only beating them in viewership until they're arrested live on stream. says if if the Democrats get enough
>> 切片视频，你会看到他们被押着游街现场直播。那将会很精彩，然后当他们被押着示众带走时，我们就要在直播中碾压——
Original English >> clips, you're going to see them per walked live on. It's going to be amazing and then we're going to crush stream when they are per walked out.
>> 是的。
Original English >> Yeah.
>> 他们要进监狱了。直播间里的人要进监狱了。这并不意味着他们不是好人，也不意味着他们不好玩。
Original English >> They're going to jail. The people on the stream are going to jail. And it doesn't mean they're not good people. And it doesn't mean that they're not fun.
>> 没错。
Original English >> Right.
>> 蒂姆，真是绝妙的决定。对。
Original English >> Uh Tim, what great choice. Yeah.
>> 嗯，首先，特德·克鲁兹不可能当上总统。我们就这么说吧，特德·克鲁兹永远不可能成为总统。他的家人都不会投票给他。呃，马尔科·卢比奥大概会代表共和党参选。万斯是——你知道的，可怜的万斯。我的意思是，我们能怎么办？愿上帝保佑穿着邓布利多服装的他。那是不可能发生的。约翰·奥索夫（John Oaf）会成为下一任总统。 我就在这里下注了。Polymarket或者——
Original English >> Um well, number one, Ted Cruz is not gonna be the president. Let's just let's just say that Ted Cruz will never be the president. His family won't vote for him. Um, uh, Marco Rubio will probably run for the Republicans. Vance is is, you know, poor Vance. I mean, what are we going to do? Uh, God bless him in a Dumbledore costume. That's not going to happen. John Oaf will be the next president. I'm putting my money on it right here. Poly Market or
……随便吧。呃，约翰·奥索夫（John Ossoff）……就是他。他是那个人选。他是那个人选。他拥有……对，他可以说是具备了……他拥有那种势头和关注度。他能够以某种方式跟进步派沟通，进步派喜欢他，但他又足够走中间路线，能够吸引普通大众。而且，他就是一个普普通通的人，你懂我的意思吧？他身上没有什么争议。他没有引发争议的东西。我觉得他从来没做过任何过于极端而会引发……你知道，我敢肯定会有针对他的……但没错，我同意他的观点。
Original English whatever. Uh, John Oaf is He's the guy. He's the guy. He has Yeah, he has like the he has the the hype. He has the momentum and he's able to kind of speak to the the progressive wing like they like him, but he's also centrist enough to like appeal to the normies. Also, he's just a generic guy, you know what I mean? There's nothing he doesn't have like controversies around him. There's nothing I don't think he's ever done anything too extreme that would raise a you know, I'm sure there's going to be a on him, but yeah, I agree with him.
>> 告诉我，呃，你们觉得会发生什么？这……这更多是跟刚才那个问题相关的，但就能够畅所欲言的舆论氛围而言，你们觉得会发生什么变化？我认为特朗普总统在某种程度上开创的事情之一，就是这种人人都能畅所欲言的自由。蒂姆，你知道，你当时能够真正敞开胸怀、放开手脚，想说什么就说什么。现在，你可能以前也是这样，但在当时显然受关注得多。泰勒，你也这么做了。现在这种情况会改变吗？嗯，你们觉得大家会开始更多地进行自我审查吗？你们觉得现在注意自己发了什么、注意自己说了什么很重要吗？你们觉得存在那种……嗯，你知道，潜在的因素吗？
Original English >> Tell me uh what do you guys think happens? This is this is more related to the earlier question, but what do you think happens in terms of the temperature to be able to say the things? One of the things that I think President Trump kind of ushered in was this freedom where, you know, everybody did it. And Tim, you know, you were able to really open up and let loose and said whatever you wanted. Now, you probably did before as well, but it it was probably much more visible then. Taylor, you did it as well. Does that change now? Um, do you guys think that people start to selfensor a little bit more? Do you think that it's important now to watch what you post, watch what you say? Do you think that that there is that element of um you know potential?
>> 哎，我们别表现得好像这里一直都有言论自由似的。我认为两党都拥护审查制度，而且两党都拥护自上而下的审查政策。看看那些两党合作的新法案——我们得到的唯一两党合作的科技监管法案就是这种，你知道，“拯救所有儿童”的说辞，通过什么从互联网上封禁所有有害的错误信息、从互联网上封禁所有我们不喜欢的脏话。我……我感到非常失望的是，显然特德·克鲁兹（Ted Cruz）和怀登（Wyden）提出了《反政府威逼法案》（Jawboning Act），这是一部伟大的立法，能够阻止政府越权、阻止政府向这些科技公司施压去监管、审查内容，并且……呃，你知道，基本上就是任由政府摆布。但没人支持这项法案，因为他们喜欢运用政府压力来审查言论。再看看欧洲正在发生的事情。我的意思是，那太可怕了。我认为我们应该看看欧洲在正在通过的科技政策方面以及英国等地正在发生的审查制度，这应该让这里的任何人都感到害怕，而且没有任何政治派别在抗击这些东西。真的没有任何人。左派……左派喜欢它，而右派也已经加入进去了。所以两党都想开始……
Original English >> Well, let's not act like you know it's been free speech. I think both parties have embraced censorship and both parties have embraced policies of censorship from the top. Look at the new pieces of bipartisan the only bipartisan tech regulation we're getting is this you know, save all the children stuff by, you know, banning all the bad misinformation from the internet. ban all the bad words, you know, that we don't like from the internet. I I'm very disappointed that obviously Ted Cruz and Widen have had the Jawone Act, a great piece of legislation that would prevent a government overstepping, you know, pressuring these tech companies to just regulate, censor content and um, you know, basically do whatever the government wants. Nobody's getting on board with that because they love wielding government pressure to censor speech. And look at what's happening in Europe. I mean, it's terrifying. I think we should look at what's happening in Europe in terms of the tech policies that's getting through and the censorship that's happening over there in places like the UK and it should terrify anybody here and there is no political faction that is that that is fighting this stuff. It's it's literally no one. The leftist that the leftists love it and the right has gotten on board with it. So both parties want to start
### 寡头垄断与财富集中 >> 你们觉得针对美国内部的寡头垄断，正确的解决方案是什么？面对它正确的做法是什么？围绕财富集中，正确的做法是什么？而对于拥有巨额财富的人代表美国公民所承担的责任，正确的做法又是什么？蒂姆，你想先开始吗？
Original English >> what do you guys think is the right solution for um oligarchy inside the United States? What's the right thing to do about it? What is the right thing to do around the concentration of wealth? And what is the right thing to do about the responsibility of folks with extreme wealth on behalf of the American citizenry? Tim, do you want to start?
>> 嗯，我认为你必须审视我们对某些类型收入的征税方式，特别是投资收入，我们必须让这与我们对劳动所得的征税方式更加平衡。我认为，你知道，这是大家一直在讨论但从未得到彻底解决的问题。呃，我认为很多人……你知道，资产拥有阶级过得非常好，但拿工资工作的人却没有。
Original English >> Well, I think you're going to have to look at the way that we tax certain kinds of income, specifically investments, and we're going to have to balance that more with how we tax work. I think, you know, this is something that's been talked about, never fully addressed. Um, I think there's a lot of people that, you know, the assetowning class has done very well, but people that work at wage jobs have not.
>> 是的。
Original English >> Yeah.
>> 如果……而且……之所以这样，是因为我认为我们有一套激励人们投资资金的机制，这很好。在某种程度上你需要这个。然而，我认为你需要对其中一部分资金征税，就像你对从事急救员、消防员、警察或教师工作的人征税一样。而且我认为你必须恢复这方面的一定平衡，除非你打算……你知道，以极高的税率对所有人征税。比如，如果你不对某些收入的征税方式恢复平衡——无论是资本利得，还是股息，你……你都必须……无论是不是……呃，我知道财富税并不受欢迎，但在极高财富的某个水平上，对大多数人来说是相当可以理解的。呃，而且我认为如果你不这样做，你就会……你就会面临一个大家都不希望看到的局面。不过对于上一个问题，我想说的是，特朗普最终留下的持久遗产，如果在……你知道，在我们没有卷入核战争的前提下，好的方面将是他确实打开了这些渠道。 我认为他给科技巨头施加了很大压力，让人们在网上更容易发表自己想说的话。而且我认为任何民主制度的运转都需要言论自由。我认为这将成为他遗产中经久不衰的一部分，那就是因为他本人……你知道，他自己想说什么就说什么，无论好坏，他可以说打开了闸门。但我确实认为在此之前……你知道，以前要难得多，很多公司的政策……
Original English >> And if and and that's because I think we have a a an incentive structure for people to invest money, which is good. You need that to a certain degree. However, I think you need to tax some of that money the way that you would tax somebody who's working as an EMT or a firefighter or a cop or a teacher. And I think you have to restore some balance to that unless you are going to get, you know, people that are taxing everybody at very high rates. like if you don't restore balance to the way that you tax certain income, whether it's capital gains, whether it's dividends, you you have to whether it's uh I know wealth taxes are not popular, but at a certain level of extreme wealth, they're they're pretty understandable to most people. Um, and I think if you don't do that, you're going to you're going to have a world that people don't want. I will say though on the last question, the enduring legacy of Trump when all said and done, if you know we don't get into a nuclear war, the good thing will be he did open up the channels. I think he put a lot of pressure on tech to make it easier to say what you want online. And I think you need free speech for any democracy to work. And I think that will be an enduring part of his legacy is that because he, you know, himself said anything he wanted to, he sort of opened the floodgates for good and for bad. But I do think before, you know, it was a lot harder the policies of a lot of
>> 你怎么能这么说呢，布兰登·卡尔（Brendan Carr）……我的意思是，他想……比如他正在威胁每一个……试图以这些令人难以容忍的方式来监管社交媒体，比如……我的意思是，我同意你的看法，特朗普在那方面确实做了一些好事，而且我认为……你知道，他在某种精神层面上，可能改变了关于你能说什么的某种防护栏，但我不……不，我的意思是归根结底，我认为他没有做任何事情来确保Meta减少审查。Meta只是变得越来越具审查倾向，尤其是随着他们不断与各州总检察长签署的那些愚蠢的和解协议。
Original English >> How can you say that when Brendan Carr like I mean he want like is is threatening every trying to regulate social media and these obscene ways like I mean I agree with you like there's some good things that Trump has done in that area and I think like you know he he's sort of like spiritually like been you know sort of maybe moved the sort of guardrails in terms of what you can say but I don't No, I mean ultimately I don't think he's done anything to ensure that Meta censors less. Meta is only getting more and more sensorious, especially with these, you know, stupid settlements that they keep signing with all the state attorney generals.
>> 它们为什么愚蠢？在这点上解释一下你的立场——关于人们必须在社交网络上注册、年龄验证。你……你在这方面有一个非常……嗯，我认为很深刻或者说非常棒的见解。
Original English >> Why are they stupid? Explain your position here on people having to register with the social networks, agegating. You you have a very um I think insightful or a great insight here.
>> 是的，我的意思是这纯粹是一场敲诈。我认为这些州总检察长刚刚意识到，他们可以通过针对Meta的这些无稽之谈来赚取正面新闻头条，比如社交媒体成瘾、伤害儿童等等。我并不是在争辩说它们是完美的平台、你应该让你12岁的孩子上去玩。不是的，要承担起一些家长的责任。但最终正在发生的事情是，这些监管者和这些州一级的立法者正在引入这套国民身份证明系统、大规模监控系统，以至于没有政府身份证你就无法上网。你将无法匿名发帖。当情况越来越艰难的时候，你怎么能说特朗普正在带回言论自由呢？如今在网上匿名发帖比五年前更难了。你知道，这些都是巨大的问题。
Original English >> Yeah, I mean it's just a racket. I think that these estate attorney generals have just realized that they can get good headlines by going after Meta for these, you know, nonsense claims of social media addiction, child harm, or whatever. And I 'm not arguing that they're perfect platforms that you should let your 12-year-old on. No, take some parental responsibility. But what is ultimately happening is these uh regulators and these state level lawmakers are ushering in these systems of national ID of of mass surveillance of you're not going to be able to get online without your government ID. You're not going to be able to post anonymously. How can you say that Trump is being bringing back free speech when it's harder and harder? It's harder to post anonymously online today than it was five years ago. You know, these are huge problems.
>> 我会同意你的看法。顺便说一句，我不喜欢埃里森家族（the Ellisons）拥有美国的一切。我也不喜欢媒体的合并垄断。当然，我只想说，过去因为推测在中国的病毒可能起源于中国而被人从YouTube上踢出去的那些情况。我确实认为，正如你所说“精神层面上”那个词，在特朗普第二任期下，奥弗顿之窗（Overton window）确实发生了转移，转移到了你确实……YouTube不再像以前那样具有审查倾向了。嗯，埃隆（Elon）买下了X。我在很多事情上与埃隆意见相左，但他确实给那个平台带来了言论自由。而且，你知道，我不是……我……我不太了解Meta在审查什么和不审查什么方面的情况，但我确实知道，当时打开了一个让美国容纳更多言论的奥弗顿之窗。但我……我不喜欢特朗普统治下的媒体合并垄断。呃，而且……而且……而且我认为这将是一个巨大的问题。我们也可能必须在那里考虑一些反垄断立法。如果你想谈论……谈论寡头垄断以及我们应该对此做些什么，我认为你不能允许一个家族拥有大约20家媒体机构。
Original English >> I would agree with you. By the way, I don't like that the Ellison's own everything in America. And I don't like the consolidation of media. Of course, I would just say that the instances of people getting kicked off YouTube for speculating that a virus that originated in China, might have originated in China. I do think that as you said the word spiritually the Overton window did shift under Trump second term to where you did YouTube is less sensorious uh than they were. Um, Elon bought Axe. I disagree with Elon on a lot of things, but he did bring freedom of speech to that platform. And, you know, I'm not I I don't know Meta as much in terms of like what they are censoring and what they're not censoring, but I do know that there was an Overton window that opened up for more speech in America. But I I don't like the consolidation of media under Trump. Um, and and and I I think that's going to be a huge problem. And we're going to have to probably look at some anti- monopoly legislation there, too. If you want to talk at talk about oligarchy and what we should do about it, I don't think that you can have one family owning like 20 media outlets.
>> 是的，非常明显的是，那边的合并垄断进行得非常迅速猛烈。蒂姆，你知道，我是你节目的超级粉丝，呃，在YouTube上的节目，而且我觉得你过去六个月所做的内容太……嗯，不按常理出牌了，毫无束缚，放手一搏。呃，我觉得这在四年前是不允许你这么做的。你现在早就被踢出去了。
Original English >> Yeah, it is pretty clear that the consolidation uh of on that side is pretty fast and furious. Tim, you know, I'm a big fan of your show uh and on the YouTube and I think the stuff you're doing the past six months has been so um off the rails, unbridled going for it. Uh I don't think you would have been allowed to do that four years ago. You would have been kicked off by now.
>> 如果他们通过了《儿童网络安全法案》（Kids Online Safety Act）以及所有这些其他的……《屏幕法案》（Screen Act）和所有其他……我不认为你两年后还能这样做
Original English >> I don't think you're going to be able to do it two years from now if they pass the Kids Online Safety Act and all this other the Screen Act and all the other
他们正试图在国会强行推进那个法案。我是说，我只是……我感到非常害怕，你知道，显然当特朗普卸任后会发生什么。我认为他其实没那么在乎这些东西。但是我们看看2028年的候选人。谁在把……谁在专注于互联网上的言论自由？谁在专注于保护自由表达？我横看竖看，没看到有任何人把这作为核心要点。这真的很吓人。
Original English that they're trying to force through in Congress. I mean, I I'm just I'm terrified at what happens when, you know, obviously Trump goes out of office. I don't think he cares as much about this stuff. But let's look at the 2028 candidates. Who's taking who's focused on free speech on the internet? Who's focused on protecting free expression? I don't see anyone across the board that's made that a central point. And that's really scary.
>> 是的，我们绝对需要把这个议题往前提。
Original English >> Yeah, we definitely need to move that up on the agenda.
>> 听着，表现得太棒了，呃，泰勒，干得漂亮，蒂姆。呃，非常高兴你们能来到直播间。
Original English >> Listen, great job, uh, Taylor, great job, Tim. Uh, wonderful to have you here on the live stream.
>> 谢谢大家。投票给巴里·韦斯。我将会投票给巴里·韦斯。
Original English >> Thank you, guys. voting for Barry Weiss. I will be voting for Barry Weiss.
>> 我要离开演播室去投巴里·韦斯了。而且我还投了VC Ram。叮咚
Original English >> I will be leaving the studio and voting for Barry Weiss. And I voted for VC Ram. Dingdong
>> 非法投票，因为他付钱给我了。我用了死去的孩子的名字给他投票。
Original English >> illegally because he paid me to. And I used the names of dead children and I voted for him.
>> 你确实干了。你多次非法投票
Original English >> You did. You voted illegally multiple times
>> 呃，用那个掐死自己孩子的女人手下被掐死的孩子的名字。你收了钱才这么干的，来探监吧。来监狱看我们吧。
Original English >> uh by the strangled children of that woman who strangled her own kids. You were paid to do that by come visit. Come visit us at the pen.
>> 是的。而且你是不是……你真的要和纳撒尼尔一起执导
Original English >> Yes. And will you Is it true that you will be directing along with Nathaniel
>> 弗里德伯格监狱纪录片吗，如果他没有
Original English >> the Freedberg Penitentiary documentary if he doesn't
>> 我知道。顺便说一句，你们太搞笑了，你们在监狱里会混得很好的，你们自己也清楚。
Original English >> I know I by the way I you guys are so much fun and you'll do well in prison and you know you will.
>> 我们会混得很好的。我们会混得很好的。幽默在监狱里是件好事。我是说，听着，霍姆斯在监狱里似乎过得挺滋润的。大家觉得……我最后留给大家这个问题。你们觉得《You Can See Everything》怎么样，呃，蒂姆·狄龙，然后我们再问你。讲讲
Original English >> We'll do well. We'll do well. Funny is a good thing in prison. I mean listen Holmes seemed to be doing wonderful in prison. What did you think guys of the I'll I'll leave you guys with this. What did you think of You Can See Everything uh Tim Dylan and then we'll go to you. Tell
>> 我……我觉得它很棒。
Original English >> I I thought it was great.
>> 对。你有没有最喜欢的时刻，呃，来自比利·埃文斯的？你知道，弗里德伯格和比利·埃文斯有着深厚而有意义的关系。他在All-In峰会上拿到了独家专访。蒂姆，你有没有最对比利·埃文斯印象深刻的片段？你对纪录片里的比利·埃文斯有什么看法？
Original English >> Yeah. Did you have a favorite moment uh from Billy Evans? You know, Freeberg has a deep meaningful relationship with Billy Evans. He got the exclusive interview at the Allan Summit. Tim, did you have a favorite Billy Evans? And what's your what's your take on Billy Evans there in the documentary?
>> 我还没看那部纪录片。
Original English >> I haven't seen the documentary.
>> 哦，好吧。所以你很喜欢它。
Original English >> Oh, okay. So, you loved it.
>> 你的观点很强烈。我还没看，但我很喜欢这个概念，我相信它很棒。我还没看。我抽不出三个小时的时间去看它，但我会去看的。
Original English >> You have strong opinions. I haven't seen it yet, but I love the idea that I'm sure it's great. I have not seen it. I can't commit three hours to it, but I will see it.
>> 好的。那听着，下次你在某个城市巡演的时候，你应该去看看。
Original English >> Okay. Well, listen, when you next time you're on tour in a city, you should go see it.
>> 你一定要看。最佳……得拿最佳影片。当世最佳电影。兰斯·奥彭海姆是个天才。内森是个天才。极其出色。蒂姆，我懂你。我当时也是想，三个小时的纪录片？绝对不看。我是在一个可以随时离开去逛商场的地方看的，但实际上我被牢牢钉在椅子上了。太精彩了。真的太棒了。你看的时候都没刷社交媒体。真的吗？
Original English >> You must see it. Best needs to win. Best picture. Best movie alive. Lance Oppenheim is a genius. Nathan's a genius. Extremely good. Tim, I'm with you. I was like three-hour documentary. Absolutely not. I saw it in a place that I could leave to potentially go to the mall and actually I was glued to my chair. It was so good. It's so good. You weren't on social media during it. Really?
>> 远离手机，拔掉网线，全神贯注。大家都去看看吧。这……是的，这是一部伟大的电影。
Original English >> Off my phone, unplugged, locked in. Everybody go see it. It's Yeah, it's a great movie.
>> 好吧，大家听到了。蒂姆·狄龙，泰勒·洛伦茨
Original English >> All right, there you have it. Tim Dylan. Taylor Loren's
>> 两位行业翘楚。两位历史最佳。干得漂亮。
Original English >> two of the goats. Two of the goats. Well done.
### 大选选情与AI基础设施市场反应 >> 好的，让我们请进我们的第五位老友。呃，我想我们的第五位老友已经到了。说到……呃，哦，看看这家伙。
Original English >> All right, let's bring in our fifth bestie. Uh, I think our fifth bestie is here. Speaking of uh Oh, look at this guy.
>> 你在哪儿呢？你在乌克兰吗？在一座宫殿里？你在哪里？你在乌克兰的一座宫殿里。还戴上了领带。
Original English >> Where are you? Are you in Ukraine? In a palace? Where are you? You're in Ukrainian palace. Put the tie on.
>> 怎么你在克罗地亚？这到底是怎么回事？
Original English >> What are you in Croatia? What's going on here?
Anthropic眼中的理想第三世界国家。你今晚是在庆祝民主党的巨大胜利吗？是的。
Original English anthropic ideal third world country. Are you celebrating a gigantic Democrat victory tonight? Yeah.
>> 你确实系着你的蓝领带。你系着蓝领带呢。
Original English >> You do have your blue tie on. You have your blue tie on.
>> 呃
Original English >> Uh
>> 我……我……我在旧金山参加一个活动，和黄仁勋在一起，并且，嗯，我可以说，我可以向你们报告，嗯，你知道，生活还在继续，尽管事实是，呃，AI概念股在过去一小时里出现了10%的反转回落。嗯，随着……随着市场现在看来出现了一场“蓝色海啸”。
Original English >> I am I am I am at an event in San Francisco with Jensen and um I can tell I can report to you that um you know life marches on notwithstanding the fact that uh AI stocks have had a 10% reversal in the last hour. um as uh as the market now appears to be a blue tsunami.
>> 哦，真的吗？那是……你不是在开玩笑吧。呃，市场显示，呃，Robinhood，或者不管谁有盘后交易，显示AI股票下跌了10%。是这样吗？
Original English >> Oh, really? Is that uh you're not making a joke here. The uh markets are showing uh Robin Hood, whatever, whoever has aftermarket a 10% dip for AI stocks. Is that correct?
>> 嗯，所以我想说，我想说我关注的地方是这样的。嗯，如果你看一下海外股票，也就是在日本、韩国等地的海外交易，它们在过去两个小时里大约有5%到10%的反转回落。呃，在这一消息的影响下，这里最大的担忧当然——虽然我认为这种担忧被夸大了——但最大的担忧是在蓝色海啸中，特别是在德克萨斯州，有可能会有霍萨颁布新建数据中心的暂停令，呃，可能会让现有数据中心很难拿到许可证。如果大家还记得的话，在All-In峰会上我们曾指出这是市场面临的一个风险。嗯，所以如果你看一下现在的盘前或者英伟达和CoreWeave的盘后交易，英伟达下跌了2%，CoreWeave下跌了6%。 嗯，你知道，所以这个……我们展示过这张幻灯片，但如果你看下一张，嗯，丽莎，也就是，你知道，我们曾说过这是2026年剩余时间的飞行航线轨迹。当时，纳斯达克上涨了15%，现在上涨了11%。我们指出选举以及与之相关的监管确实是一大风险。而且看起来如果我们直接在目前市场下跌的位置开盘，纳斯达克今年以来的涨幅将变为8%。所以我们，你知道，在这条飞行航线上，我们曾说过它可能会回吐那15%涨幅中的10%，把我们压到只剩5%。现在我们明天就要到8%了。到它尘埃落定的时候可能还会更糟。所以我们可能会去测试……呃，把纳斯达克一路打回到今年持平的状态。嗯，并且回吐大量原本已经被视为板上钉钉的收益。嗯
Original English >> Well, so I would say I would say here's where my eyes are on. Um if you look at overseas stocks, so these are overseas trading in Japan, Korea, etc., they've had about a 5 to 10% reversal in the last two hours. uh on the news mostly the big fear here of course and I think it's overblown but the big fear is that in a blue tsunami particularly in the state of Texas you have hosa who will issue a moratorium on new data centers u may make it difficult for the existing data centers to get permitted if you recall at the all-in summit we highlighted this as a risk to markets um and so if you look at pre-market now or after hours on Nvidia and coreweave Nvidia's down 2% core Weeav's down 6%. Um, you know, so this we showed this slide, but if you go to the next one, um, Lisa, which is, you know, we said this is the flight path for the balance of 2026. At the time, the NASDAQ was up 15%, now it's up 11%. And we pointed out that the election and regulation associated with that really was a risk. And it looks like if we just opened where the market is down right now, the NASDAQ would be up 8% for the year. So we, you know, on this flight path, we said it could give up 10% of that 15, take us down to five. Now we're going to be at eight tomorrow. Could be worse by the time it it it's done. So we may test uh taking the NASDAQ all the way back to flat for the year. Um and giving up a lot of returns that were baked into the cake. Um
>> 布拉德，我……我刚才在跟这帮家伙说，如果具体且单纯是霍萨在德克萨斯州获胜，对市场来说会有多糟糕。是的，
Original English >> Brad, I um I was telling these guys how bad it would be for markets if specifically and narrowly Hosa wins in Texas. Yeah,
>> 这……这可能是放缓AI交易最单一有效的途径了。
Original English >> it it is it's probably the single most effective way to slow the AI trade down.
>> 是的，我可以告诉你，楼下我和许多人在一起，嗯，你知道，他们都是从事AI行业的人，你知道，他们都在对此哀叹，但现实是共和党人在信息传递上确实表现挣扎，而且不仅仅是在这次选举前的最后3个月。我认为……我认为AI行业群体和共和党人在过去18个月的时间里在信息传达上一直很吃力。他们一直处于守势。现在，当然，这关乎生活承受力。这关乎人们对生活及其子女的焦虑，作为……
Original English >> Yeah, I can tell you downstairs where I was with a lot of folks um you know who are in AI, you know, they're lamenting this, but the reality is Republicans really struggle with the messaging and not just in the last 3 months ahead of this election. I think um I think the AI community and Republicans have struggled with the messaging over the course of the last 18 months. They've been on their heels. Now, of course, it's about affordability. It's about anxiety for people's lives and their kids as a
>> 但我的意思是……不，但我的意思是，会发……会发生什么，有多少兆瓦或吉瓦
Original English >> but what I No, but what I mean is what hap what happens how many megawatts or gigawatts
>> 是的。 会被下线
Original English >> Yeah. are taken offline
>> 会从每个人的模型里被剔除下线
Original English >> are taken offline that are in everybody's models
>> 比如，意思是在你的……比方说你是否有一个模型，对
Original English >> like meaning for example in your do you have a model where you've sensitized
>> 呃，在民主党州长执政下实际落地的兆瓦和吉瓦数做过敏感性分析
Original English >> uh megawatts and gigawatts pulled through in a democratic governorship
>> 比如单纯看发生的事情是
Original English >> where for example narrowly what happened was
>> 呃，你知道，格雷格·阿博特通过
Original English >> uh you know Greg Abbott introduced this moratorum via
>> TCEQ（德州环境质量委员会）出台了这个暂停令，也就是你知道的，可以把它想象成类似加州的CEQA（环境质量法案），你可以借此把事情拖慢，并设置所有这些过度的许可要求。此前的预期是他会赢。他会解除暂停令。大家基本就会回去继续建设。 现在，如果他没赢，那个暂停令可能会继续保留。其他的监管规定可能还会接踵而至。这将会……重新核算的模型将会改变。在一个民主党赢得德克萨斯州州长职位的世界里，能够提供给AI、提供给AI的算力会减少多少？关于这个你有一个模型测算吗？
Original English >> TCEQ which is the you know think of that as like California squa where you can just kind of slow things down and have all this excess permitting requirements. The expectation was he will win. He lifts the moratorum. Everybody kind of goes back to building. Now, if he doesn't win, that moratorium could stay. Other regulations may come on top. It's going to the under the re-underwriting would change. How much less compute is available to AI to AI in a world where the Democrats win the governorship of Texas? Do you have a model about that?
>> 嗯，好吧，我会说德克萨斯州的吉瓦数我没有具体的模型，但我在All-In峰会上讲过，明年的普遍共识预测——我们姑且称之为SemiAnalysis的迪伦·帕特尔预测——是2027年总共有43吉瓦上线。现在，为了有个参照概念，截至26年底上线的总吉瓦数，即全美的累计容量大约是38吉瓦。所以共识预测是，我们明年要上线的能力将超过我们迄今为止所建造的所有算力。我当时在台上说过，并且在推特上引发了很多抨击，我说我们最终可能只会建成其中的一半，在2027年让其中的一半上线。 而我担忧的部分原因，呃，是日益增长的反对浪潮，甚至来自像格雷格·阿博特这样的人。但现在有了这场“蓝潮”，我认为这会把它拖得更慢。嗯，所以我认为我们可能会看到预期的建设量中至少有10到15吉瓦无法上线。嗯，你知道，这就是为什么我认为这对于AI基础设施来说将是非常艰难的。嗯，我们有付账的资金，但我认为，你知道，想象一下我们在接下来的两周里会听到什么吧，查马斯，嗯，从那些州长口中，从……你知道，杰弗里斯议长或者舒默领袖口中。他们的竞选纲领就是要放缓AI发展。那是他们的首要施政议程。因此他们必须兑现这一承诺
Original English >> Um, well, I would say not specifically on the gigawatts in Texas, but what I said at the all-in summit, the consensus forecast, which we'll call the semianalysis Dylan Patel forecast for next year, is a total of 43 gawatts coming online in 2027. Now, just to put that in perspective, the total gigawatts online at the end of 26, the cumulative in the United States is about 38. So the consensus forecast is we're going to bring online more next year than all of the compute that we've had uh we built to date. I said on stage and it got a lot of blowback on Twitter at the time that we may end up building half of that bringing half of that online in 2027. And part of what I was concerned about uh was the growing backlash even from guys like Greg Abbott. But now with this blue wave I think it'll slow it down even more. Um, so I think we could see at least 10 to 15 gigawatts of the expected build not come online. Um, which, you know, that's why I think it's going to be really challenging for the AI infra. Um, we have the dollars to pay for it, but I think that, you know, imagine what we're going to hear, Chimamoth, um, for the next two weeks out of the governors, out of, you know, you know a speakerake Jeff or a leader Schumer. They ran on slowing down AI. That was their principal agenda. And so they have to deliver that
额，你知道，向大家……顺便说一句，事实证明，他们在这个议题上以及在生活成本承受力问题上，比共和党人更契合美国民众的想法。这就是为什么我们看到今晚所出现的这些结果。所以，你知道，呃，归根结底，我认为这不会导致美国在人工智能领域退缩。这是一场全球竞赛。我们需要赢，我们需要创新。但在短期内，我认为市场将会出现波动。
Original English uh you know to folks. And and by the way, it turns out they were more in tune with America than Republicans on this issue and and on the issue of affordability. That's why we're seeing the results that we're seeing tonight. And so, you know, um I don't think this at the end of the day is going to cause America to retreat from AI. This is a global race. We need to win. We need to innovate. But in the short run, it's going to be uh I think choppy for markets.
>> 呃，布拉德，共和党以前所未有的姿态拥抱了科技行业。呃，把所有人都请到了白宫，呃，建立了一个非常庞大的包容联盟。不管你是在一家民主党人占 96% 的公司，比如苹果、谷歌，还是之前曾向民主党捐赠数千万美元的人，他们都把他们争取了过来。
Original English >> Uh Brad, the Republican party, embraced the technology industry like it never had before. Uh brought everybody to the White House, uh built a very big tent. It didn't matter if you were in a company, Apple, Google, that was 96% Democratic or it were people who had given tens of millions of dollars previously uh to the Democratic party, they pulled them in.
>> 是的。科技行业与两边的民主党人之间难道不需要这样吗？我们难道不需要也许去拥抱现在获胜的民主党吗？接触其中的一些关键人物并表示：“嘿，我们当然支持特朗普，但我们也会支持你们，我们很乐意让你们参与进来，无论是在‘投资美国’还是其他方面。作为这个行业，我们是否需要去搭建沟通双方的桥梁？”正如你所指出的，在某种程度上是我们自己造成了这种损害，告诉人们有 10% 的概率所有人都会死，告诉人们有 50% 的人会失去工作。我的意思是，有一半的问题是我们自己造成的。呃，那么对于我们的行业、对于我们当中的资本家，在把民主党人拉回到这个行业方面，你有什么建议？因为现在这是一种僵局。
Original English >> Yeah. Is that not what needs to happen with the technology industry and the Democrats on both sides? Do we not need to maybe embrace the Democratic party that's won now? Some of those key players and say, "Hey, we we're supporting Trump, of course, but we'll support you as well and we'd love to have you be part of this, whether it's invest America. Do we need to kind of bridge both sides as the industry?" And as you pointed out, we kind of did the damage ourselves, telling people that it was a 10% chance of everybody dying, telling people that 50% of people are losing their jobs. I mean, we created half of this problem. Uh, and so what's your advice then for our industry, for the capitalists amongst us for pulling the Democrats back in to the industry? Because right now it is a standoff.
### 两党合作与科技监管 >> 是的。非常棒、非常棒的消息是，我认为大多数获胜的人，嗯，你知道，我认为他们是中间偏左的。嗯，我不认为这是像美国民主社会主义者那样要关闭所有的人工智能。我认为这些人是希望参与讨论的，他们表示，嘿，我们希望对人工智能监管发表意见，参与围绕这张桌子正在进行的对话。坦率地说，我认为白宫和总统对此是持开放态度的。之前已经证明了这一点，你知道，在那张桌子旁，一开始就表示，我们桌旁有民主党人，也有共和党人。但我认为民主党人凭借获胜的势头，他们会有更多人围坐在桌旁，而且他们会有更多的发言权，嗯，正如，呃，你知道，选民们现在表达了他们应该参与这些议题的意见，而且我认为这符合白宫的最大利益。听着，关于这位总统，嗯，有一件事必须明白，那就是他是首席交易撮合者，对吧？他把自己形容为一个交易迷。所以你觉得他会怎么做？他会邀请民主党人去白宫，对吧？他会去弄清楚在诸如数据中心、人工智能监管等事情上是否存在达成交易的空间。我认为那是正确的做法。呃，没有两党合作，在华盛顿什么事也办不成，对吧。我仍然认为有些议题是可以推进的。我知道我们有很多两党共识，杰森。你提到了《投资美国法案》。嗯，有很多事情是我们想去做的，想让它对美国的新生儿更加有利。而且我知道，两党都有良好的意愿。我看到华纳参议员今晚赢了，布克参议员今晚赢了，他们都是《投资美国法案》的坚定支持者。我认为有些事情是可以向前推进的。嗯，但可以肯定的是，这将需要……呃，你知道，在过去几年里，一直是共和党人试图按自己的方式强行推进事情。而我认为现在，将会有民主党人坐在领导层的谈判桌旁，你必须寻求两党共识。
Original English >> Yeah. The great the great news is I think that most of the people who are winning um you know I think they're you know center left um I don't think this is DSA shut down all of AI. I think these are folks that want to be at the table and they're are saying hey we want to have input into the AI regulation the conversation that was going on around the table and frankly I think the White House and the president is open to that. demonstrated that, you know, at that table at the start of the day said, we got Democrats around the table, Republicans around the table. But I think Democrats by virtue of winning, they're going to be more around the table and they're going to have more input um as uh you know, as the voters have now, you know, said they should uh into these issues and I think it would be in the White House's best interest. And listen, the the one thing to understand about this president um is he's a dealmaker and chief, right? He's described himself as a deal junkie. So what do you think he's going to do? He's going to invite the Democrats to the White House, right? He's going to figure out whether or not there are deals to be made um on things like, you know, like data center, like AI regulation, etc. I think that's the right thing to do. Uh nothing's going to get done in Washington, right, without bipartisanship. And I still think there are issues you can move ahead. I know we have a lot of bipartisan agreement, Jason. You mentioned Invest America Act. Um there's a bunch of stuff that we want to want to do to make this even more favorable to newborns in America. And I know there's, you know, goodwill on both sides of the aisle. I saw Senator Warner won tonight, Senator Booker won tonight, huge supporters of of the Invest America Act. I think there are things that, you know, that could be pulled forward. Um, but to be sure, it's going to require uh, you know, we've, for the last few years, it's been Republicans kind of jamming things um, you know, uh, their way. And I think now it's going to be, you know, Democrats sitting at the leadership table and you're going to have to find bipartisan agreement.
>> 是的。这归根结底可能是一件好事，至少在我看来，当出现分裂政府时，人们被迫坐下来，呃，没有出现一党全胜其实很好，呃，你知道，撇开这个不谈，虽然我有点担心会变成加州那样，继续。
Original English >> Yeah. which is ultimately uh probably a good thing at least in my mind when you have the split government people are forced to sit down and uh great to not have a clean sweep uh you know independent of this although I'm a little concerned what's going to happen turning into California go ahead
### Anthropic IPO 与算力预期 >> 是的，布拉德，这个 Anthropic IPO 会怎么样？
Original English >> yeah what's going to happen to this anthropic IPO Brad
>> 呃，是的。
Original English >> um yeah
>> 它会被重新定价吗？比如它仍然会进行，但会被重新定价，还是怎样？
Original English >> does it get repriced like it still goes but it gets repriced or
>> 是的，我的意思是，听着，归根结底所有因素都会对定价产生影响，嗯，必须清盘市场。我、我、我认为无论如何他们都会推进。我认为对此有很大的需求。而且顺便说一句，我认为你可以把这两个层面区分开来，对吧？智能并不需要那么多算力。记住，他们今年用 2 吉瓦的算力创造了 1000 亿的收入、运转率收入，对吧？他们专门用于产生收入的推理算力大概可能只有 500 兆瓦。所以，你知道，是的，他们希望上线大量算力，但如果放慢算力上线的速度，我不确定这对实验室来说是个大问题。这种情况发生，他们在某些方面实际上可能还会受益。所以，嗯，你知道，我认为这是基础设施交易的一个问题。我不确定它是否是 Anthropic IPO 的问题，但是听着，市场上的整体情绪，呃，将会，呃，你知道，我认为没有那么狂热。嗯，所以这可能会，你知道，把它的定价推向原本定价区间的偏低端。但我可以告诉你，这项发行有着非常、非常、呃，嗯，非常强劲的需求。我知道我们的热情并没有改变。你知道，我们希望成为 IPO 中最大的买家之一。所以，嗯，我可以把这两件事区分开来，大卫。我可以认为基础设施交易面临挑战，但我仍然认为，你知道，原始的智能以及我们在 10 月份以及进入 11 月份所看到的他们收入的加速增长，我认为将会继续下去。
Original English >> yeah I mean listen everything weighs in at the end of the day to price um you got to clear the market I I I think they're going to go either way. I think there's a lot of demand for this. And and by the way, I I think you can differentiate these two layers, right? Intelligence doesn't require that much compute. Remember, they generated 100 billion of revenue, run rate revenue this year with 2 GW of compute, right? The amount of compute they dedicated to inference generating revenue was probably like 500 megawatt. So, you know, yes, they want to bring on a lot of compute, but if you slow down the rate at which compute comes online, I'm not sure that's a big problem for the labs. They may actually benefit in some ways from that happening. So, um, you know, I think it's a problem for the infrastructure trade. I'm not sure it's a problem for the anthropic IPO, but listen, overall sentiment in the market, uh, will be, uh, you know, I think less euphoric. Um, so it will probably, you know, this pushes it a little bit more to the lower end of the range wherever it was going to price. But I'll tell you, there is uh pretty pretty uh um pretty serious demand for the offering. I know our enthusiasm for it hasn't changed. You know, we hope to be one of the largest buyers in the IPO. And so, um I I can bifurcate those two things, David. I can say the infrastructure trade is challenged but I still think you know the raw intelligence and the acceleration we're seeing um in their revenues in October and you know into November I think will continue.
>> 综合考虑你此时此刻掌握的所有数据。闭上眼睛，不要太较真，但请告诉我今晚这场选举在未来 12 个月内对 GDP 增长影响的确切数字。你知道，我、我会说，如果看今年的情况，嗯，GDP 增长中大约 75% 我认为来自人工智能基础设施。因此，如果我们将其放慢 50%，你知道，明年可能会对 GDP 增长产生 50 个基点的逆风。
Original English >> Take into account all the data you have in this very moment. Close your eyes and don't be too precise but tell me an exact number impact on GDP growth over the next 12 months by this election tonight. You know, I I would say if you look at it this year, um about 75% of GDP growth, I think came from AI infrastructure. And so if we slow it down by 50%, you know, you could have a 50 basis point headwind um to GDP growth next year.
>> 50、50 个基点。
Original English >> 50 50 basis point.
>> 是的，GDP 增速放缓 50 个基点。
Original English >> Yeah. 50 basis point slowdown to G.
>> 才半个百分点，哈？
Original English >> Only half a point, huh?
>> 是的。我的意思是，听着，我、我……
Original English >> Yeah. I mean, listen, I I
>> 你觉得事情还会继续向前推进？
Original English >> You think things just keep on rolling?
>> 嗯，我、我的意思是，不。就像我说的，如果你建了 27 吉瓦，记住 27 吉瓦几乎相当于目前全美国用于人工智能的全部总算力。所以这仍然是一个庞大的数字。嗯，而且我认为、我认为我们大体上可能会超过 30。我只是认为无法达到那些预估区间的上限。大卫，你们谈论过 40 号提案了吗？
Original English >> Well, I I mean, no. Like I'm saying, if you build 27 gawatts, remember 27 gawatt is about as much as all the total compute we have in the United States for AI today. So it's still an enormous amount. Um and I think I think we large we probably get past 30. I just don't think you're going to hit the higher end of those estimates. David, have you guys talked about Prop 40 yet?
### 加州 40 号提案 >> 噢，我们还没有，因为加州的投票站还有一个小时十五分钟才关闭。
Original English >> Oh, we've not because California's polls don't close for an hour and 15 minutes.
>> 嗯，所以我们是不被允许谈论它吗？
Original English >> Um so are we not allowed to talk about it?
>> 不，不，当然可以。我们只是没有任何数据。我们谈……任何出口民调都还没开始。
Original English >> No, no, absolutely. We don't have any data. We talk started any exit pulling.
>> 是的。我的意思是，我、我会说，今晚我关注的最有趣的一件事就是这个，因为在全国各地，我们看到的是一场对人工智能的全民公决，对吧？在那种情况下，你会认为 40 号提案，对吧，绝不可能失败。你会认为那会以……呃，你知道，这是针对亿万富翁的征税。你会认为那会轻而易举地获胜。我的预测是，嗯，你知道，40 号提案将在加利福尼亚州遭遇失败。嗯，而且我认为如果这发生在加利福尼亚州，与此同时你看到这股蓝色海啸，这真的是一个非常有趣的对照，表明选民对资产没收税的看法尤为负面，如果它在蓝色海啸之年的加利福尼亚都无法获胜，那它在美国或在其他各州就永远不可能获胜。
Original English >> Yeah. I mean, I I would I would say what one thing that will be the most interesting thing I'm watching tonight because around the country, we're seeing a referendum on AI, right? And you would think in that scenario that there is no way that Prop 40, right, would fail. You would think that that would win by uh you know, it's attacks on billionaires. You would think that that would win going away. My prediction is that um you know, Prop 40 is going to fail in California. Um, and I think if that happens in California, at the same time you're seeing this blue tsunami, like it's a really interesting juxtiposition and shows how particularly bad uh, you know, voters view an asset seizure tax if it can't win in California in the year of a blue tsunami like it can never win in America or in other states.
>> 好的，这就是我们的好伙伴布拉德·格斯特纳。状态不错。回去吧，回去看歌剧吧。今晚在歌剧院玩得开心。我没在歌剧院。你在说什么呢？
Original English >> All right, that's our guy Brad Gersonner. Looking good. Get back. Get back to the opera. Have fun at the opera tonight. I'm not at the opera. What are you talking about?
>> 歌……我知道。我收到了去……他邀请了去歌剧院的所有人。
Original English >> The I know. I was invited to He invited all the opera.
>> 你在食物银行。你在歌剧院。呃，我们知道我们都收到了邀请。好的。大家干得漂亮。我们……呃。是的。呃，弗里德伯格，我知道你今晚为了参加直播也错过了歌剧。呃，有什么遗憾吗
Original English >> You're at a food bank. You're at the opera. Uh we know we were all invited. Okay. Great job, everybody. We'll uh Yeah. Uh Freeberg, I know you missed the opera tonight as well to be on the live stream. Uh any regrets
去过那里？你当时会很想看《蝴蝶夫人》（Matter and Butterfly）吧，嗯？你肯定会很喜欢看的。
Original English there? You would have liked to see Matter and Butterfly, huh? You would have loved to see it.
>> 那是你唯一知道的歌剧吗？那大概是你唯一知道的歌剧了吧，对吧？我年轻时去过不少普契尼（pooini）……去过不少普契尼的歌剧。嗯，你知道，我去过一些……
Original English >> Is that the only opera you know? That's probably the only opera you know, right? I've been to a bunch of pooini um in my day. I've been to a bunch of pooini. Um I you know I've been to some
>> 还有什么？除了这个还有什么？
Original English >> What else? What else besides
>> 你还看过别的什么？对，还有什么其他的……
Original English >> What else have you seen? Yeah. What other
>> 《约瑟的神奇彩衣》（Joseph and the Technicolor Dream Coat）？那不是歌剧。
Original English >> Joseph and the Technicolor Dream Coat? That's not an opera.
>> 不，我告诉你我过去是怎么做的。这就是我过去的招数。让我告诉你我的策略。当我在福特汉姆（Ford）的时候……
Original English >> No, I tell you what I used to do. Here's what I used to work. Let me tell you my strategy. When I was at Ford,
>> 你没回答问题。你说吧。
Original English >> you don't answer the question. Go ahead.
### 歌剧、音乐剧与中期选举 >> 他们会给你……我看过很多东西。我不记得了。那是30年前的事了。当时我很穷，你知道，想约女孩子出去约会，我就会买……他们会有去林肯中心看歌剧的5块或10块钱的学生票，但那就是当天或者前一天的票，我直接买下票，然后试着约女孩子，我会说，嘿，我知道这有点临时，但我搞到了这些票，她们就会说，你……你是在约我去歌剧院吗？当然。说到歌剧和音乐剧，我们的朋友本·夏皮罗（Ben Shapiro）在这里。他是音乐剧迷。大家不知道这一点，本，但你是音乐剧的超级粉丝。呃，你目前、现在最喜欢的歌剧和音乐剧是什么？你有偏好吗？
Original English >> They would give you I saw tons of things. I don't remember. This is 30 years ago. I was broke and uh you know trying to you know ask girls on a date and I would buy they would have student tickets five or 10 bucks to go to the opera at Lincoln Center but it was like yeah same day or day before I would just buy the tickets and I try to get a date with a girl and I'd be like hey I I know this is kind of last minute but I got these things and they'd be like you you're asking me to go to the opera? Absolutely. Speaking of opera and musicals our friend Ben Shapiro is here. He is a fan of musicals. People don't know this, Ben, but you are a huge fan of musicals. Uh, what is your favorite opera and musical at the at the moment right now? Do you have a a preference?
>> 呃，当然。我最喜欢的歌剧要么是《卡门》（Com），要么是《魔笛》（Magic Flute）。呃，我历来最喜欢的音乐剧大概是《西区故事》（Westside Story）或者《1776》。但是伙计们，我得告诉你们，我真选错了戒掉闻强力胶的这一周。
Original English >> Uh, sure. My my favorite opera is either Com and Magic Flute. Uh, and my favorite musical of all time is probably Westside Story or 1776. But boys, I got to tell you, I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.
>> 在这边，今晚可不是一个让人值得铭记的夜晚。要是你们想接下来的几分钟都聊音乐剧，我很乐意聊。那我可就乐得自在了。
Original English >> This is this is not an evening to remember over here. I'm happy to talk about you want to do musicals for the next few minutes. I I will be a happy camp.
>> 听起来很棒。
Original English >> That sounds great.
>> 本，呃，本，据你估计到底发生了什么？
Original English >> Ben, uh Ben, what what what happened in your estimation?
>> 我是说，我坦白觉得，总统在选前就说过，这次选举将是对他的一场全民公投。把选举当作是他自己在选票上一样来对待。而且我认为，你知道，总统某种程度上确实等同于在选票上。如果这仅仅是几位极其糟糕的共和党候选人落败的情况，比如德克萨斯的帕克斯顿（Paxton），或者仅仅是优秀的民主党候选人在某地获胜的情况，比如爱荷华的乔什·赫里克（Josh Hurrick）——爱荷华那边我们还要继续观望后续结果——但事实上南卡罗来纳州正在失守，而且你基本就是看着南卡罗来纳州一个徒有虚表的人输掉；或者事实是在佛罗里达州，虽然佛罗里达依然保持了翻红，但差距非常非常非常微弱。我是说，安吉……那是我的家乡州，所以我非常了解那个州。安吉·尼克松（Angie Nixon）是个彻头彻尾的疯子，而安吉·尼克松在那场参议员竞选中大概也就输两个百分点。大卫·乔利（David Jolly）在那场竞选中的花费我认为只有拜伦·唐纳兹（Byron Donalds）的十七分之一，却大概只输两三个百分点。我是说，这对共和党人来说是一场彻底的惨败，对此没有任何粉饰的余地。而且再次强调，如果你纵观整个地图，这对2028年来说是相当不祥的预兆，并且我不得不说，这纯粹……我认为这是一系列因素叠加的作用。
Original English >> I mean, I I think that honestly the president said going in that the election was going to be a referendum on him. Act like he's on the ballot. And I think that, you know, the president was kind of on the ballot. If this were just a case of of a few outstandingly bad Republican candidates losing like Paxton in Texas for example or if it were were just a matter of an outstanding Democrat candidate winning somewhere like Josh Hurrick in Iowa which again we'll see what happens in Iowa still but the fact that South Carolina is going and you just basically have an empty suit in South Carolina losing or or the fact that Florida again Florida stayed red but very very very closely I mean Angie that's my home state so I know that state really well. Angie Nixon is a full-scale nutcase and Angie Nixon is going to lose that senatorial race by about two points. David Jolly who spent I think 17th of what Byron Donald spent in that race is going to lose by a couple of points. I mean it's it's a wipeout for Republicans and I there's no there's no way to sugarcoat that and again if you're looking at it across the map that bodess pretty ill for for 2028 and and I got to say that it it's just I think it's it's a stacking function a bunch of things.
>> 这是对纲领的否定吗？是对人品的否定吗？是对策略的否定吗？还是以上皆是？共和党人要怎么做才能重新调整……
Original English >> Is it a platform repudiation? Is it a character repudiation? Is it a strategy repudiation? Is it all of the above? Like what is like what what do Republicans do to retool that
>> 还是对个性的否定……
Original English >> or personality repudiation of
>> 我是说，我认为，我认为是以上皆有。坦白讲，我认为如果你看一下总统的支持率，它与这里更广泛的共和党支持率是步调一致的。总统刚上任时支持率在50%多。呃，然后“解放日”（Liberation Day）到来了，你可以看到他的支持率基本上是算术级地下滑。显然伊朗战争又让情况有些恶化，但在支持率下滑的过程中，它看起来有点像一条几乎没有什么阶梯跃迁的直线。我认为绝大多数美国选民对这些事情的基本感觉是——我认为，你知道，我们所有密切关注政治或经济的人，我们往往对疏远民众的具体政策看得相当细致。我认为美国的大多数人往往是基于对正在发生的一切的一种整体感象来投票的。而且我认为美国人民认为总统脱离了他们那种日常关切。无论这种信任是被关税削弱，还是被伊朗战争，或者被那个倒影池所削弱。如果他们觉得总统没有关注他们所关注的事情，而且他被一大堆其他事情分散了注意力，然后你再加上腐败问题以及所有其余的事情，我是说，这一切对共和党人来说都不会有什么好结果。现在，再次说明，我认为共和党人可以做两件事来修复这一点。我是说，他们在政治上可以做几件事，来聚焦于美国人民更为关心的事情。我认为其一是他们可以成功地结束伊朗战争。我强调是“成功地”，因为美国人不喜欢失败，正如乔·拜登在阿富汗所看到的那样。他们可以成功地结束那场战争。我认为美国总统可以重新聚焦于经济增长，而在这一点上，我认为他其实做得挺不错的。但我认为他显然可以在关税制度上转向温和，我认为那套制度在很大程度上是失败且不受欢迎的。然后我认为他必须，你知道，切实正视其政府内部表面腐败带来的形象问题。在这个选举周期福克斯新闻（Fox News）的一些选后民调中，这成了很多人的首要问题。我认为这些都是必须要做的，因为我今晚看着这张选举地图，展望2028年，我一直在心里盘算。我是说，如果你看看那些脆弱的共和党州，那些可能翻蓝的地方。如果现在连德克萨斯也算进去，如果现在连俄亥俄这样的地方也算进去，然后你现在把所有的摇摆州加上这些地方都算上，你谈论的就是民主党潜在可能达到382张左右选举人票的版图，而共和党基本上只有150多张算是有保障的选票。如果情况不发生改变，进入2028年对他们来说将是一座难以逾越的高山。
Original English >> I mean I think I think it's an all of the above. Honestly, I I think that if you look at the the presidential approval ratings which which moved lock step with Republican approval ratings more broadly here the the president's approval ratings were in the 50s when he first started. Uh and then Liberation Day hit and you can see it's it's basically an arithmetic decline in his approval rating. obviously exacerbated a little bit by the Iran war, but it looks kind of like a straight line with very few step functions in the decline of of the approval rating. I think the the basic sense that most American voters have of this stuff, I I think that, you know, all of us who watch politics or the economy really closely, we tend to get pretty granular on on the specific policies that are alienating people. I think most people in America tend to vote based on a sort of gestalt of what's happening. And I think the American people believe that the the president is disconnected from their sort of everyday concerns. and whether that gets undermined by the tariffs or by the Iran war or by the the reflecting pool. If they feel like the president is not looking at the thing they're looking at and that he's distracted by a bunch of other things and then you add on top of that corruption issues and and all the rest of it, I mean, none of that is going to line up particularly well for Republicans. Now, again, I think that there are two things Republicans can do to fix that. I mean, there are a few things they can do politically to to focus in on things that the American people care more about. I think one is that they can end the Iran war successfully. I I emphasize successfully because Americans don't like losing as Joe Biden saw in Afghanistan. They can end that successfully. I think the president of the United States can refocus on economic growth, which again I think he he's done a pretty good job on that. But I think that he can obviously moderate away from a tariff regime that I think has been largely unsuccessful and unpopular. And then I think that he's got to, you know, actually look at the imogistic problems of apparent corruption within his administration. is like the top issue in some of the Fox News exit polling in this election cycle for a lot of people. I think that that's going to be required because I'm looking at this electoral map tonight and I'm looking forward to 2028 and I was counting it up. I mean, if you're looking at the vulnerable Republican states, you places that could go blue. If that now includes, say, Texas, if that now includes places like Ohio, and and now you're talking about all the swing states plus those, you're talking about a potential map for Democrats that runs in the range of 382 electoral votes and and basically 150 some Republican votes that are kind of guaranteed. That that's a heavy hill for them to to have to climb going into 2028 if things don't change.
>> 对。本，如果我们没有关税……呃，混乱——大家都觉得那相当混乱，而且你也提到了这一点——如果我们没有移民与海关执法局（ICE）的那种局面——人们提到，嘿，也许我们想关闭边境，但我们不想看到蒙面特工，你知道，呃，在街头诉诸暴力。呃，当然还有战争，而且战争显然加剧了通货膨胀，但这大概是个次要的后续影响。但光是前三项，如果你消除这三项中的两项、全部三项，或者这三项中的一项，据你估计今晚会是什么样子？
Original English >> Right. Ben, if we hadn't had the tariff uh chaos, which people felt it was pretty chaotic, and you referenced that, if we hadn't had the ICE situation, which people referenced, hey, maybe we want to close the border, but we don't want to see masked agents, you know, uh being violent in the streets. Uh and then of course the war, and the war obviously exacerbated inflation, but it's probably a secondary downstream effect. But just those first three, if you eliminated two out of those three, all three of those, or one of those three, what would tonight have looked like in your estimation?
>> 我想看起来会是共和党出现一些温和的损失，但绝不会是你现在看到的全面溃败。我认为，你知道，美国人民能够承受一定程度的，你知道，特朗普总统那种在线上的混乱举止，只要他们觉得其他所有事情都还算是一帆风顺。呃，但我认为把所有这些与他们本来就已经有的一些怨气结合起来，是不会……是不会对局势有任何帮助的。所以，我认为当……当你回头看，你知道，过去几年所发生的事情时，我认为在政治上犯下的最大错误——而且在过去20年的很多次中期选举中我们目前都见识过这一点——就是某人当选了，他们想到的第一件事就是是时候进行打破天地的彻底变革了。你知道吗？美国人民总体上并不支持打破天地的剧变。美国人民总体上只想要某种正常和可预测的感觉。也许是一定程度的渐进式改变。也许解决掉少数几个真正极端的离谱问题，比如彻底关闭南部边境，但你知道，别在吉卜力工作室（studio Jibli）的风格上发布ICE逮捕非法移民的迷因，就像……
Original English >> I think it would look like some moderate Republican losses, but not the complete wipeout that you're looking at. I think that, you know, the the the American people can take a certain amount of, you know, President Trump's sort of chaotic online behavior if they feel like everything else is sort of smooth sailing. Uh but but I think that that combining all of that when they already have a bit of heartburn is not going is not going to help things. So, I think that when when you look at, you know, sort of of what has happened over the course of the last couple of years, I think the biggest mistake that gets made in politics, and we've seen this in in a bunch of midterm elections at this point over the course of the last 20 years, is that somebody gets elected and the first thing they think is it's time to do worldbreaking change. And you know what? The American people generally are not in favor of worldbreaking change. The American people generally just want some sense of normality and predictability. Maybe a certain level of incremental change. maybe get rid of a few of the really outlying issues like for example just shut the southern border but you know don't put out memes on studio Jibli of ICE you know arresting illegal immigrant like
>> 嘲弄自由派（libs）适得其反了，对。
Original English >> trolling the ribs backfired yes
>> 是的，我确实认为……我是说，我认为如果你看看今晚的结果，真正能解释它的只有两件事
Original English >> yeah I I I do think that I mean I think that if you look at at tonight's result there are only two things that really explain it
### 选举结果分析与 2028 年展望 嗯，有三点：第一，民主党人——所有民主党人都出来投票了，显然，可以说是巨大的民主党投票率；第二，出来的独立选民把票投给了反对总统的那一边；第三，有一些共和党人，鉴于对总统表现的消化不良。把所有这些综合起来，最终就产生了这种非同寻常的下游席位效应。但是，是的，我认为当美国其他地方……你知道，当你的生活一切看起来都还过得去时，那种挑衅煽动还行得通；你知道，当你开始为负担能力担忧，而总统在他最后一天还在大谈倒影池的灌浆工程时，你知道，就会让人觉得……
Original English well three one is Democrats all all the Democrats showed up to vote obviously like huge Democratic turnout two is independents who did show up to vote voted against the president and three is there were some Republican against his pepsia with with the president's performance you combine all of that and you end up with this extraordinary down ballot effect. But yeah, I I do think that the trollery goes over okay when the rest of America's, you know, when everything seems to be going okay in your life, you know, when when you're concerned about affordability and the president is doing his last day talking about the grouting at the reflecting pool, you know, you can get
>> 显得有点不专注。为我们研判一下 2028 年吧。呃，在民主党那边，在共和党这边，JD·万斯、马可·卢比奥，还有其他人；在左翼，拉姆·伊曼纽尔、AOC，呃，还有另一个夏皮罗。嗯，显然我不觉得你会参选，你很享受经营一家媒体公司。所以，呃，或者黑马，呃，你知道，很多其他的黑马。你的朋友塔克，呃，你知道，成立了他的第三党。
Original English >> seems a little unfocused. Handicap 2028 for us. uh on the Democratic side, on the Republican side, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, other on the the left, Rahm Emanuel, AOC, uh the other Shapiro, um obviously I don't think you're running, you enjoy running a media company. So, uh or wild cards, uh you know, a lot of other wild cards. Your friend Tucker, uh you know, starting his third party.
>> 我的意思是，听着，塔克，塔克度过了一个美妙的夜晚。他为一些获胜的民主党候选人拼命加油。所以，你知道，为他高兴。呃，但至于你谈到的其他一些人，我认为，看，万斯在被宣布不是之前就是天然的领跑者。呃，我认为坦率地说，有些原本可能考虑过参选的共和党人，现在正看着这个局势，心里想“如果我进去，我是不是直接撞上电锯了？”你知道，那意味着万斯面临着，你知道，我们常说的一座需要攀登的高山。而我很有兴趣看看他会如何尝试建立一个不同于特朗普总统的联盟。
Original English >> I mean, that listen, Tucker, Tucker had a great night. He was rooting very hard for some of the Democratic candidates who won. So, you know, good for him. Uh but as far as some of the the other people who who you're talking about, I think look, Vance is the primitive front runner uh until declared otherwise, I think that frankly there are some Republicans who might have thought about jumping in the field and now are looking at this like am I going to walk directly into a buzzsaw if I do, you know, that that means that Vance has, you know, a real, as we say, a hill to climb. And I I I'll be interested to see how he tries to build a coalition that is different from President Trump's coalition.
因为我认为这次选举表明，如果你把特朗普联盟拿过来，然后缩减 20%，你得到的就是今天这个结果。对吧？如果你把拉美裔选票从拉美裔选票的 48% 降到 20% 多，那么你最终就会在南得克萨斯的所有那些选区全部落败。如果你把白领……蓝……蓝领白人选票减少 15% 到 20%，你最终就会看到目前在堪萨斯、南卡罗来纳或俄亥俄所看到的局面。所以，你知道，JD·万斯能直接复制粘贴特朗普的联盟吗？特朗普在这个选举周期里甚至都无法复制粘贴特朗普的联盟。所以他必须建立新的东西。至于民主党人，我再次认为民主党人在走向 2028 年时握有主动权。嗯，但我认为目前被提及的一些名字可能不会是最终人选。例如，我并不认为 AOC 就已经是板上钉钉的候选人。我也不认为加文·纽森是合适人选。我审视民主党的选举版图，我认为韦斯·摩尔被普遍低估了。呃，他是，你知道，他今晚刚在马里兰州以压倒性优势、以巨大优势连任。显然，那是意料之中的。但是，你知道，如果你看看民主党早期的初选州，那些州在人口结构上黑人占很大比例。呃，那……那些州倾向于支持能坚持那么久的黑人候选人。卡玛拉·哈里斯没有坚持那么久，在 2020 年，或者 2020 年，而在 2024 年，显然，你知道，她是被直接插进来的。所以是的，如果我不得不，如果我要在预测市场做多做空，我会在低位买入韦斯·摩尔，我认为那里有一些上涨空间。让……让我问你一个稍微……噢抱歉，你先说。
Original English Because I think that what this election shows is that if you take the Trump coalition, then you shrink it by 20%, you end up with what you have today. Right? If you take the Hispanic vote and you drop that from 48% of the Hispanic vote down to the 20s, then you end up with losing all of South Texas in all of those various districts. If you take the the white collar blue the the the blueco collar white vote and and you reduce that by 15 20% you end up with what you're seeing right now in Kansas or or South Carolina or Ohio. So you know it can JD Vance just sort of copypaste Trump's coalition. Trump couldn't even copypaste Trump's coalition in this particular election cycle. So he's going to have to build something new. As far as the Democrats again I think the Democrats have the whipand going into 2028. Um but I I think that some of the names that are that are being mentioned right now are probably not going to be it. I I do not think that that AOC, for example, is kind of the foregone conclusion as as a candidate. I don't think Gavin Newsome is the guy either. I look at the Democratic electoral map. I think Wes Moore is being widely underrated. U he's, you know, he just won heavy re-election tonight, like big numbers over over in Maryland. Obviously, that's expected. But, you know, if you look at the early Democratic voting states, those are states that are disproportionately black. Uh th the those states tend to favor black candidates who last that long. Kla Harris didn't last that long. in 2020 or 2020 and and in 2024 obviously you know she was she was sort of slotted in so yeah if I had to sort if I were going if I if I if I run the prediction markets I would buy low on Wes Moore I think that there's some some move room to move there let let me ask you a slightly oh sorry go ahead
>> 是的，让我……
Original English >> yeah let me
### 党内派系与国会前景 >> 让我只是……嗯，基于今晚的获胜者，你知道，到目前为止，获胜者中并没有太多 DSA（美国民主社会主义者）的声音。党向 DSA 光谱那端移动了多远？我们是否开始跌入社会主义的深井？对于蓝营今晚获胜候选人的质量，你的看法是什么？
Original English >> let me just um based on who won tonight you know there's not a lot of DSA chatter in um in the winners thus far how far has the party moved towards that DSA end of the spectrum from are we starting to fall down the socialism well and what's your view on the the the quality of the candidates that that won on the blue side
>> 今晚？我认为这对民主党人来说有点像是自选冒险，对吧？如果你想说民主党温和派今晚表现出色，那么从理论上讲，你或许可以指向得克萨斯州的塔拉里科，或许是爱荷华州的乔希·图克（取决于那场竞选的走向），嗯，堪萨斯州的候选人汉密尔顿。呃，如果你想证明 DSA 的论点，你会指向密歇根州的埃尔-赛义德，他在任何第三世界主义和准社会主义政策上都没有丝毫退让。丝毫没有退让，而且看起来将相当轻松地击败密歇根州的迈克·罗杰斯。我认为密歇根州的情况非常引人注目，倒不是因为埃尔-赛义德在一个本来就是填补民主党席位的州赢了（这是一次非大选年选举），更有意思的是民主党人对海莉·史蒂文斯表示不投他的迅速反应。我认为，那一部分应该会让具有温和倾向或独立倾向的人感到不安。海莉·史蒂文斯仅仅因为表示要投票给埃尔-赛义德的对手，就遭到民主党人更为猛烈的抨击，而埃尔-赛义德在整个竞选期间说了那么多离奇的话，却从未在任何地方遭受过如此抨击，这简直令人不可思议。
Original English >> tonight? I think you can kind it's kind of pick your own adventure for the Democrats here, right? If you want to say that that Democratic moderates are doing well tonight, then you could theoretically point at maybe Telerico in Texas, maybe Josh Turk in Iowa, depending on how that race moves. Um the the candidate Hamilton in Kansas. Uh, if you want to make the DSA case, you're going to point to El Saledad over in Michigan, who did not moderate one iota on any of his third worldest and and quasi socialistic policies. Not one iota, and is going to win, it appears pretty handily, over Mike Rogers in in Michigan. I think that that the Michigan story is fascinating, less because Elsa won in a state that again he's filling a Democratic seat. It's an off-year election, more interesting because of the rapid response of Democrats to Haley Stevens saying she wasn't going to vote for him. That part is, I think, uh, should should be disturbing to to people of moderate or independent bent. The fact that that Haley Stevens was ripped harder by the Democrats for saying that she was going to vote for Elsa's opponent than Elsid was ever ripped anywhere during this campaign for saying it of extraordinary things is amazing.
>> 在众议院占民主党多数、参议院占民主党多数的情况下，这对以色列意味着什么？
Original English >> In a in a Democratic majority in the House and a Democratic majority in the Senate, what does it mean for um, Israel?
>> 嗯，听着，我……我认为这显然意味着，你知道，关于资金的疑问。我认为这也是为什么总统和内塔尼亚胡总理此前已经大致宣布，他们将提前终止美以之间关于军事援助的谅解备忘录。我认为以色列人已经知道了这一点。他们知道民主党正在走向的方向。所以，我认为以色列人已经在为此做准备了。我认为，与其说这是令人震惊的事，不如说这只是在加速一个本就已在发生的趋势。
Original English >> Um, listen, I I I think that it it obviously means, you know, questions about funding, which is, I think, why the president and and Prime Minister Netanyahu already sort of announced that they were coming to an early end to the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Israel as far as military aid. I think the Israelis already know that. They know the direction the Democratic Party is moving. And so, I think that the Israelis are already preparing for that. This is, I think, less of a less of a shock and more of just an acceleration of a trend that was already occurring.
>> 然后第二个问题，嗯，回到……又回到第一个问题上。如果让你审视那些脱离常规政治倾向的候选人，比如，或许你知道，像唐纳德·特朗普那样从外部打入内部的角色，在左翼或右翼，是否有吸引你眼球、引起你注意，让你觉得我们应该关注他们的人？
Original English >> And then second question, um, back it's back to the first one. If you had to sort of look at candidates that were outside the normal political bent, like maybe you know like the Donald Trump-like character that comes from the outside in, are there people that you're looking at both on the left for the right that kind of like catch your eye and catch your attention that you think we should be looking at them?
>> 这是个极好的问题。我确实没有看到有谁具备特朗普拥有的那种磁场效应。我认为，你知道，人们总会犯这种错误，比如“谁会是下一个特朗普？”不会有下一个特朗普，就像没有下一个巴拉克·奥巴马一样。所以我认为很有可能，你知道，至少在接下来的几轮中，大多数候选人都将属于民选官员框框内的人，而不是名人框框内的人。而特朗普是独一无二的。我认为任何试图模仿他的人往往都会力不从心。呃，而且，你知道，到了某个点上，也许他们表现得更糟，然后美国人民对此感到不满。但是我……我没有看到有人，你知道，要参选。我没有看到马克·库班从侧翼杀入并以风暴之势夺取民主党提名的可能。
Original English >> It's a great question. I I really have not seen anyone who has the sort of magnetic effect that Trump had. And I think that, you know, this sort of mistake that people make of like who's going to be the next Trump. There is no next Trump, just like there was no next Barack Obama. And so I think that it's very likely that, you know, for for the next couple of rounds anyway, most of the candidates are going to be inside the sort of elected official box and not the celebrity box. And Trump is one of one. And I think that that anyone who tries to imitate him tends to fall short. Uh and and you know, at a certain point, maybe they act worse then and the American people get upset about it. But but I I I don't see somebody, you know, running. I don't see Mark Cuban running in from the wings and seizing the Democratic nomination by storm.
>> 而且本，我们今晚没有看到任何呃呃 1 月 6 日选举干预的胡言乱语。而且你也不会看到那种情况发生。你也不会看到特朗普去实行禁令并试图谋求第三任期。所有那些民主党人忧心忡忡的事情，都已经不在讨论范围了。
Original English >> And Ben, we didn't see any uh uh January 6 election interference nonsense tonight. And you don't see that happening. Nor do you see Trump doing the ban and trying to get the third term. All those things the Dems were hand ringing about. That's off the table.
>> 是的。是的。那完全是一派胡言。我认为总统非常乐意完成他的第二个任期。他昨天就已经在谈论这个了。我的意思是，他说他基本上会变成一台否决机器，然后他最终会尽己所能与民主党达成协议，接着他会做自巴拉克·奥巴马以来的总统们所做的事情：他将依靠他的笔和他的电话，遗憾的是，这正是我们如今在这个国家执政的方式。我的意思是，事实是，自布什政府以来，在没有预算和解程序或超级多数的情况下，我们在美国就没有通过哪怕一项重大法案。我的意思是，确实已经过了那么久了。
Original English >> Yeah. Yeah. That's total nonsense. The president is is perfectly happy, I think, to to finish his his second term. He was already talking about this yesterday. I mean, he said he'll basically become a veto machine and then he'll end up cutting whatever deals he can with Democrats and then he'll do what presidents since Barack Obama have done. He'll rely on his pen and his phone, which unfortunately is the way we now do governance in this country. I mean, the reality is we have not passed a single major bill in the United States absent reconciliation or a supermajority since the Bush administration. I mean, it really has been that long.
>> 好的，本·夏皮罗，我们的老搭档，非常感谢你加入我们。
Original English >> All right, Ben Shapiro, our guy, thank you so much for joining us.
>> 谢谢，本。回到这边的数学测算。
Original English >> Thanks, Ben. Back to the meth over here.
>> 好的。
Original English >> Yes.
一会儿见。我待会儿会跳到本的直播间去聊……聊……
Original English and I'll see you in a little bit. I'm going to jump on Ben stream in a little and talk uh talk
……跟他聊完。 各位，多棒的一场直播啊。呃，我们的观看量达到了40万或50万，而Hassan和Nick Fuentes那边是10万和20万。所以，我们碾压了他们。我们……我们直播全面压制了他们。我们现场碾压了他们。呃，在我们即将结束直播之际，大家对这场直播以及我们请来的各位嘉宾有什么想法吗？嘉宾阵容真是太棒了。各位，今晚你们感到意外吗？
Original English it up with him. Gentlemen, what a great stream. Uh we hit 400 or 500,000 uh to Hassan and Nick Fuentes's 100 and 200,000. So, we mogged them. We we mo streamed them all. We live mogged them. Uh any thoughts here as we wrap on the stream and on the guests uh that we had here? What a great flow of guests. Do you feel any surprise tonight, you guys?
>> 我有。我……嗯，我……我……我觉得我个人之前没有意识到，我对某些竞选有多脱节，在那些选战中，我原本以为存在一种稳固确立的模式，而且我认为那是可靠的。你知道，在进入俄亥俄州州长竞选时，俄亥俄州曾经是共和党领先10个百分点。在过去的两个、三个选举周期里，它绝不是一个摇摆州。现在看来那里要翻盘了。得克萨斯州的参议员选举似乎也要翻盘，还有州长竞选也是。所以对我而言，我必须回过头去重新审视我先前的预设。而且我认为，对我来说最重要的领悟是，核心始终在于经济，而且特别在于，并非关乎GDP——我认为自己太过于纠结于GDP了——而是关乎基本的W2工资增长，呃，我认为我可能把其中的太多东西都给解释过去了。
Original English >> I do. I um I I I think that I didn't understand personally um how disconnected I was to certain races where I just thought that that there was um an entrenched established pattern that I think was reliable. you know, going into the Ohio governorship race, Ohio was Republican plus 10. That was not a purple state by any means. Um, for the last two, three election cycles. That that looks like it's flipping. Texas looks like it's flipping in the Senate and also the governorship. So, for me, I have to go back and and look at my priors. And I think that um the very most important takeaway for me is it's always about the economy and it's always specifically not about GDP which I think I get caught up in too much but it is about fundamental W2 wage growth and uh I think that I probably explained away too much of it
>> 呃，所以那是一件很重要的事情，我必须回去彻底重新学习，并设法重新建立起一种感知，去了解到底真正在发生什么，以及什么是重要的。
Original English >> and um so that's an important thing that I have to go and and completely relearn and and figure out how to reestablish a sense of what's actually going on and what's important.
>> 极其深刻的洞察。呃，Chamath，我认为这是非常棒的自我反思。
Original English >> Incredibly insightful. Uh Jimoth, I think that's some great self-reflection there.
>> 你知道，我……嗯，在这点上我的感受是，而且我……而且我……呃，过去一年里，当我在评论区开始指出时，招致了我们的读……或者我们观众的大量批评，你知道，“嘿，关税似乎进展得不太顺利。执行上本来可以更好一点。移民及海关执法局（ICE）那些事确实让美国人感到反感。而且，嘿，显而易见，我们都知道美国人绝对没有任何愿望卷入中东一场无休止的对外战争。”你把这三件事放在一起，再加上移民及海关执法局那些事——我对这事非常关注。我……我能感觉到人们对此越来越感到不满，尤其是那些真正接受了特朗普2.0议程的人。而且我……坦白说，我真的很想看到特朗普在这上面取得成功，能够把这种执政授权延续下去。呃，我认为这是咎由自取，而且每一次关键都在于经济。Chamath，这一直都是教训所在。人们是能切身体会到经济状况的。我说完这句。我说完这句。我们快被掐断了。我……
Original English >> You know, I um my feeling on this and I and I uh I got a lot of hate in the comments from from our reader or our viewership over the last year when I started to point out, you know, hey, the tariffs don't seem to be going too well. Could be executed a little better. the ICE stuff really is rubbing Americans the wrong way. And hey, obviously we all know Americans have absolutely no desire to be in a foreign endless war in the Middle East. You put those three things together and the ICE stuff uh on top of it, which I was very passionate about. I I could feel people were getting upset about this, especially people who were really sold on the Trump 2.0 agenda. And I and honestly, I really wanted to see Trump succeed into this and could keep the mandate going. Um, and I think this was self-inflicted and it is the economy every time. Chimoth, that is always the lesson. People feel the economy. I'll finish. I'll finish. We're going to get cut. I
>> 没关系。我认为经济是这当中最重要的部分。
Original English >> It's okay. I feel the economy is the most important part about this.
>> 呃，Friedberg，你的最终想法是什么？
Original English >> And uh, Freeberg, what's your final thoughts?
### 直播总结与收尾 >> 我只想说，各位，就到这里了。我们的All-In全程报道结束了。呃，后续报道将在Polymarket应用上继续进行。谢谢大家。
Original English >> I'm just going to say guys, that's it. We're done with the all-in coverage. The uh, coverage will continue over on the Poly Market app. Thank you guys.
>> 好的。也谢谢我们在Polyark那边的朋友们。去关注一下华盛顿海军军营（DC Navy Yard）吧。
Original English >> All right. Thank you too, our friends over at Polyark. And check out the DC Navyyard.
>> 他们在那边办了一场疯狂的派对。我不知道哪边喝得更醉，是民主党人还是共和党人。
Original English >> They're having a crazy party over there. I don't know who's getting more drunk, the Dems or the Republic.