---
author: Joseph Wang
date: '2026-03-21'
guest: ''
layout: post.njk
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSOdWeueED8
speaker: Joseph Wang
tags:
- central-banking
- geopolitical-risk
- energy-shocks
- market-analysis
- macroeconomic-policy
title: 市场每周：地缘政治冲击下的全球经济与央行政策转向
summary: 本期《市场每周》聚焦于地缘政治冲突如何重塑全球央行预期与市场格局。从能源价格飙升到利率市场剧烈波动，再到地缘政治风险的演变，节目深入分析了包括美联储、英国央行在内的主要央行政策动向。同时，探讨了潜在的冲突结局及其对全球经济的深远影响，并强调了信息不对称下的市场不确定性。
insight: ''
draft: true
series: ''
category: investment-assets
area: finance-wealth
project: []
people: []
companies_orgs: []
products_models: []
media_books:
- Central Banking 101
status: evergreen
---
### 市场动态与新书发布
各位朋友，大家好！今天是3月21日，欢迎收听本期《市场每周》。在开始本期节目之前，我有一个非常特别的公告要宣布。今天，我将正式推出《中央银行101》的第二版。正如许多朋友所知，第一版于2021年初出版，从那时到现在，发生了很多事情。因此，第二版更新了图表上的数据，并且详细讨论了期间发生的重要事件。例如，从**Silvergate Bank**的转型到**Treasury buybacks**，再到如何解读**Treasury refunding announcement**等等。总体而言，新版内容增加了约15%。此外，您还会注意到书的尺寸变大了，整体制作看起来更加专业。老实说，我认为如果把它放在**Barnes & Noble**书店，人们不会觉得这是一本自出版的书。我的第一本书是我自己写的，并且是自出版的。它取得了成功。您可能不知道，书籍要成为畅销书是相当困难的，即使是被出版社挑选并借助其营销网络的作品。
我知道我的成功离不开大家的支持，特别是**金融Twitter社区**。因此，作为我感激之情的体现，我将以**50%的折扣**推出这本书。原价**CB101**是20美元，现在接下来的大约一到两周内，售价将是10美元。我很快会向我的**Newsletter**订阅者发送关于此事的邮件。非常感谢大家的支持，希望大家也能喜欢这一版。
好了，现在回到我们的常规节目。本周确实是令人兴奋的一周，市场出现了巨大的波动。一切似乎都由**中东战争**驱动。现在，最大的新闻无疑是全球央行预期的**大规模重新定价**。利率市场经历了巨大的动荡。因此，首先让我们谈谈利率市场正在发生什么，其次，我们开始看到这场战争可能如何结束的**轮廓**。让我们来谈谈最新的进展。
Original English
Hello
my
friends.
Today
is
March
21st
and
this
is
Markets
Weekly.
All right,
before
we
begin,
I
have
a
very
special
announcement
to
make.
Today
I
am
officially
launching
the
second
edition
to
central
banking
101.
As
many
of
you
know,
the
first
edition
was
published
in
early
2021
and
between
then
and
now
a
lot
of
things
have
happened.
So
the
second
edition
updates
the
data
on
the
charts
but
also
talks
a
lot
about
the
things
that
happened
between
then
and
now.
for
example,
the
transition
from
library
to
sofur
run
on
Silicon
Valley
Bank,
um,
Treasury
buybacks,
learning
how
to
read
the
Treasury
refunding
announcement
and
so
forth.
So
overall,
it's
about
15%
more
content.
But
you
also
notice
that
the
book
the
dimensions
are
physically
larger
and
it
looks
more
professionally
done.
Actually,
I
think
if
I
dropped
this
at
Barnes
&
Noble,
people
would
not
think
that
this
is
something
that
was
self-published.
Now,
my
first
book
I
wrote
myself
and
I
I
self-published.
Um,
and
it
was
a
success.
So,
you
may
not
know
this,
but
it's
actually
very
rare
for
books
to
become
successes,
even
those
picked
up
by
publishers
with
their
marketing
network.
Now,
I
know
I
owe
my
success
to
all
of
you
guys,
especially
the
financial
Twitter
community.
So,
as
a
token
of
my
gratitude,
I'm
launching
this
at
a
50%
discount.
Normally
CB101
is
$20,
but
now
it's
going
to
be
on
sale
for
$10
for,
let's
say,
the
next
week
or
two.
And
I
will
send
out
an
email
to
my
newsletter
subscribers
about
this
soon.
So,
thanks
so
much
for
your
support
and
hopefully
you
will
enjoy
this
edition
as
well.
All
right,
now
back
to
our
regular
programming.
So
again,
this
past
week
was
a
very
exciting
week.
We
had
huge,
huge
moves
in
markets.
Again,
everything
is
driven
by
the
war
in
the
Middle
East.
Now
the
biggest
news
of
course
is
the
massive
massive
repricing
in
central
bank
expectations
across
the
world.
There
was
tremendous
carnage
in
the
front
end.
So
first
off
let's
talk
about
what's
happening
in
the
rates
market
and
secondly
we
are
seeing
some
contours
as
to
how
this
work
can
end.
So
let's
talk
about
the
latest
developments
as
well.
### 央行政策转向与利率市场剧变
好的，现在从**利率**开始说起。如果您观察**美国**和**英国**的**2年期国债收益率**，就会发现过去一周的表现非同寻常。
在**英国**，2年期国债收益率从高点到低点，**涨了100个基点**。市场现在普遍预计**英格兰银行**将进行**几次加息**。虽然英格兰银行上周开会决定维持现状并密切关注局势，但市场越来越确信，鉴于**高油价**，英格兰银行将不得不采取行动。
而在**美联储**方面，市场也出现了类似但**不那么极端**的反应。在**中东战争**爆发前，市场曾预期今年会有一次甚至两次降息。现在，市场则在消化**今年不降息**，甚至**可能加息**的可能性。因此，您可以看到2年期国债收益率也大幅飙升。
这种情况在全球范围内普遍存在，包括**欧盟**和**日本**，市场普遍预计**日本央行**将在下个月**加息**。
那么，根据**央行**的**教条**，当出现**能源冲击**时，应该怎么做呢？那就是“**看穿它**”（look through them）。其背后的逻辑，源于他们在**1970年代和80年代**的经验，即油价会上涨也会下跌。中东的地缘政治局势难以预测。如果现在加息，**货币政策**的作用会有**滞后**。也许等到货币政策最终对实体经济产生影响时，一切都已经过去了。这种观点在2003年的**伊拉克战争**以及“**沙漠风暴**”行动中被认为是成功的。当时，油价**飙升**，但在几周内就**完全回落**了。
这就是央行通常看待此类问题的方式。当然，这里存在一些细微差别。例如，就**美国**而言，**美联储**是一个**双重目标**的央行：**充分就业**和**物价稳定**。他们一开始就不能完全专注于通胀。而对于**英格兰银行**、**欧洲央行**等其他央行，情况则不同。它们只关注**通胀**。当然，我认为，根据你如何看待**能源冲击**，可以更有力地论证调整政策的必要性。
目前，**FOMC**（联邦公开市场委员会）中一位**重要的鸽派**官员——**Governor Waller**，他有着非常好的记录，过去几年在许多事情上都判断准确。因此，许多人关注他的观点来预测**货币政策**的走向。令我以及许多人感到惊讶的是，他在**上次FOMC会议**上**并未提出异议**。原因是在一月份，他曾因**劳动力市场**的**明显疲软**以及一些**轶事报告**（可能导致大量失业）而提出异议。而最近的**就业报告**显示**失业人数大幅增加**。所以我原以为Governor Waller会再次提出异议。但他没有。在他最新的公开讲话中，他解释了原因。他开始认同一种观点，即由于**劳动力增长预期**今年将**停滞不前**，因此**失业率的盈亏平衡点**（break-even rate）为**零**。
在这种情况下，我们不应惊讶于**基本没有新增就业岗位**。当然，**失业人数增加**是另一回事，但这使得最近的**就业损失**不那么令人担忧。所以，这又是**鹰派**的信号。
让我们听听他关于**能源冲击**的看法：
> “我一直想指出，油价上涨然后回落的情况，与油价上涨后长期维持高位的情况是截然不同的。后者会**回流到核心通胀**中，这时你就**不得不做出回应**，你不能仅仅‘看穿’它。”
所以，他的意思是，我们可以**忽略**这些**暂时的价格飙升**，但如果这是一个**结构性**的、**长期的**问题，即能源价格上涨后**持续高位**，那么它最终将**渗透到**经济的各个方面，他认为届时就**不能忽视**。
但这并不意味着**美联储**会**加息**。再次强调，**充分就业**的目标将是一个**制约因素**。但他确实**强烈暗示**，至少**目前**，他**不预计会有降息**。尽管他也提到，如果**劳动力市场**进一步**走弱**，并且之后有**更多清晰的信号**，他**可能**会**倾向于**在**今年晚些时候**主张**降息**。但**目前**，他将**密切关注**并**静观其变**。
因此，当一位**主要的鸽派**出现**立场转变**时，市场现在开始**预期**一种**更加鹰派的政策路径**。再次强调，当**央行立场**发生**巨大转变**时，这将**影响**到**大量资产**。我们也在本周看到了这一点。**S&P 500指数**表现不佳，**跌破了100日移动平均线**，甚至**短暂跌破了6500点**。
现在，**黄金**等其他资产也遭受了**重创**。我认为黄金的表现有点令人**意外**。你可能会认为**地缘政治风险**会**支撑金价**，但同时，**美元**正在**走强**，**利率**在**走高**，而黄金则**失去了一些关键的动能信号**。例如，**50日移动平均线**，而且历史上，**100日移动平均线**也曾提供支撑。看起来它也**失守了**。所以，可能存在一些**技术性下跌**。
因此，上周在市场上**几乎无处可藏**。**债券**在**抛售**，**股票**在**下跌**，**黄金**也在**下跌**。上周对**金融资产**来说是**糟糕的一周**。
展望全球，情况似乎会**持续下去**，除非我们终于从**中东战争**中获得**好消息**。
Original English
All
right
starting
with
interest
rates.
So,
if
you
look
at
the
2-year
yield
in
the
US
and
the
UK,
you
can
see
that
this
past
week
has
been
extraordinary.
Now,
looking
at
the
UK,
you
can
see
that
uh
from
the
high
from
the
highs
to
lows,
the
2-year
yield
basically
went
up
100
basis
points.
The
market
is
now
pricing
in
a
few
rate
hikes
from
the
Bank
of
England.
Now,
the
Bank
of
England
did
meet
last
week,
decided
to
stand
pat
and
monitor
the
situation,
but
the
market
is
becoming
increasingly
convinced
that
due
to
high
oil
prices,
the
Bank
of
England
is
going
to
have
to
do
something.
Now,
the
Federal
Reserve,
you
also
see
the
market
doing
something
similar,
but
not
as
extreme.
The
market
is
pricing
in
basically
not
just
no
cuts
this
year.
Again,
heading
into
the
Middle
Eastern
war,
the
market
was
pricing
in
a
cut
or
two.
Now,
the
market
is
pricing
in
some
probability
of
a
rate
hike
this
year.
And
so,
you
see
the
two-year
yield
also
surge.
Again,
this
is
something
that
is
seen
throughout
the
world
in
the
European
Union,
in
Japan
as
well,
where
the
market
is
widely
expecting
the
Bank
of
Japan
to
hike
rates
the
next
month.
So,
according
to
central
banking
dogma,
what
you
would
do
when
you
have
these
energy
shocks
is
that
you
look
through
them.
So
the
reasoning
being,
and
this
is
from
their
experience
back
in
the
1970s
and
80s,
is
that
oil
prices
go
up
and
down,
up
and
down,
um,
a
lot
of
this
Middle
Eastern
geopolitical
stuff
is
difficult
to
anticipate.
And
so
if
you
hike
rates
now,
monetary
policy
acts
with
a
lag.
So
maybe
when
finally
the
monetary
policy
is
having
some
kind
of
impact
on
the
real
economy,
maybe
this
is
all
over.
This
was
a
successful
way
of
looking
at
the
world
in
uh
the
Iraq
war
in
2003
and
also
operation
desert
storm
war.
Oil
prices
spiked
tremendously
and
totally
totally
imploded
uh
in
a
matter
of
uh
of
weeks
afterwards.
So
that's
how
a
central
bank
would
normally
look
at
this.
And
again
there's
some
there's
some
nuance
to
this
because
for
the
US
for
example
the
Fed
is
a
dualmandate
central
bank.
It's
full
employment
and
price
stability.
they
can't
really
focus
totally
on
inflation
to
begin
with.
For
other
central
banks,
Bank
of
England,
the
ECB,
it's
a
different
case.
They
are
only
thinking
about
inflation.
And
sure,
I
think
you
can
more
make
a
make
a
more
forceful
case
about
uh
adjusting
policy
depending
on
how
you
perceive
the
energy
shock.
Now,
the
leading
uh
dove
on
the
FOMC
has
been
Governor
Waller.
He's
has
a
very
good
track
record.
he's
been
right
about
a
lot
of
things
during
the
past
few
years
and
so
many
people
look
to
him
as
to
u
what
monetary
policy
could
be.
So
I
think
it
surprised
me
and
a
lot
of
people
that
he
did
not
desent
at
the
last
FOMC
meeting.
The
reason
being
that
in
January
he
desented
citing
notable
weakness
in
the
labor
market,
anecdotal
reports
that
maybe
we'll
have
a
lot
of
job
loss
and
subsequently
the
most
recent
jobs
report
showed
a
big
loss
in
jobs.
So
I
was
thinking
that
maybe
Governor
Waller
would
descend.
He
did
not.
And
in
his
latest
public
remarks,
he
tells
you
why.
He
is
coming
along
to
the
view
that
because
labor
force
projection
is
projected
to
not
grow
this
year
that
maybe
the
break
even
rate
for
for
the
unemployment
rate
be
is
zero.
And
so
if
that's
the
case,
we
should
not
be
surprised
if
there's
basically
no
job
growth.
Of
course,
losing
jobs
is
a
whole
another
matter,
but
that
kind
of
makes
the
recent
job
losses
a
little
bit
less
concerning.
So
again,
that's
hawkish.
And
let's
hear
what
he
said
about
the
energy
shock.
>> I
always
want
to
point
out
that
something
where
the
oil
goes
up
and
then
it
comes
down
is
very
different
than
oil
goes
up
and
then
stays
there
for
a
long
time.
That's
where
you
get
back
to
this
issue
where
it
bleeds
through
back
into
core
inflation
and
then
you
do
have
to
kind
of
respond.
You
can't
just
look
through
it.
So,
what
he's
saying
is
that
sure,
we
can
look
past
these
temporary
spikes,
but
if
this
is
a
structural
long-term
thing,
like
the
energy
prices
go
up
and
just
stay
up,
it's
eventually
going
to
bleed
into
everything,
and
he
doesn't
think
that
he
could
look
through
that.
Now,
that
doesn't
mean
the
Fed
is
going
to
hike.
Again,
that
full
employment
mandate
is
going
to
be
a
constraint,
but
he
is
strongly
suggesting,
but
at
least
for
now,
he's
not
projecting
any
cuts.
Although
he
did
also
note
that
should
the
labor
market,
you
know,
weaken
further
and
then
later
on
we
have
more
clarity,
he
could
be
open
to
be
advocating
rate
cuts
later
in
the
year.
But
at
the
moment,
uh
that's
uh
that
he's
uh
going
to
just
watch
and
see.
And
so
when
you
have
a
leading
dove
kind
of
shift
like
that,
the
market
is
now
pricing
in
a
much
more
hogish
policy
path.
And
again,
when
you
have
this
huge
shift,
huge
sea
change
in
the
stance
of
central
bank
policy,
it's
going
to
bleed
into
a
ton
of
assets.
And
we
see
that
uh
this
this
past
week
as
well.
The
S&P
500
did
not
do
very
well.
Broke
the
100
day
moving
average
and
even
dipped
briefly
below
6,500.
Now,
you
other
assets
like
gold
also
took
a
pretty
big
beating.
Again,
I
think
gold
is
kind
of a
I
think
it's
a
little
bit
surprising
to
many
people.
You'd
expect
that
geopolitical
risk
to
support
gold,
but
at
the
same
time,
the
dollar
is
strengthening,
rates
are
going
higher,
and
you
do
see
gold
losing
some
key
momentum
signals.
The
50-day
moving
average,
for
example,
and
historically,
the
100
day
moving
average
has
also
been
of
support.
Looks
like
it
lost
that
as
well.
So,
you
could
have
some
technical
moves
over
there.
So,
there
was
basically
no
place
to
hide
in
the
market
the
past
week.
Bonds
selling
off,
uh,
equity
selling
off,
gold
selling
off.
It
was
it
was
a
terrible
week
in
financial
assets
and
looking
across
the
world
it
looks
like
this
is
going
to
continue
unless
we
get
some
finally
get
some
good
news
from
the
war
in
the
Middle
East
uh
which
is
what
we'll
talk
about
now.
So
just
looking
at
the
oil
price
you
can
see
that
the
oil
price
just
kind
of
is
is
quite
elevated.
So,
it
is
volatile
with
Brent
crude
around
$110,
but
basically
it's
uh
it's
kind
of
doesn't
look
like
it's
it's
going
down
now.
It's
really
hard
to
get
news,
accurate
news
of
the
war.
We
are
of
course
at
a
time
where
everyone
is
in
full
propaganda
mode.
Uh
you
hear
over
and
over
again
that
the
US
has
destroyed
all
Iran's
capabilities,
its
navies,
it
launches,
its
missiles
and
so
forth.
But
at
the
same
time,
Iran
keeps
launching
missiles,
right?
So
something's
not
adding
up.
Now,
many
people
of
course
are
looking
to
President
Trump
to
kind
of
back
down.
That's
what
everyone
is
expects
him
to
do.
That's
seems
to
be
what
happened
in
um
liberation
day.
And
on
Friday
after
the
market
closed,
we
had
a
truth
social
post
from
President
Trump
suggesting
that
he's
thinking
about
winding
down
the
war.
and
aftermarket
the
markets
took
that
to
be
some
kind
of
taco
and
and
traded
very
positively.
Now
I
would
be
cautious
about
that
because
as
we
all
know
Trump
has
been
saying
a
lot
of
things
and
a
lot
of
things
haven't
been
adding
up.
I
think
this
just
a
week
ago
he
was
telling
everyone
that
the
war
was
very
complete
uh
but
uh
but
since
then
the
war
did
escalate.
The
biggest
escalation
last
week
of
course
has
to
do
with
attacks
on
energy
production
facilities.
Now
the
straight
of
harmon
remains
largely
closed
and
so
energy
is
not
going
through
but
the
capacity
of
of
the
Gulf
states
to
produce
hasn't
been
impacted
until
last
week,
when
we
had
an
Iranian
missile
attack
on
major
Qatari
gas
fields.
Now
Qatar
is
one
of
the
largest
gas
producers
in
the
world,
and
according
to
reports,
that
attack
took
down
their
capacity
and
they
may
not
be
able
to
produce
gas
at
the
same
capacity
for
another
few
years.
So
that's
a
structural
decline
in
the
capacity
of
the
world
to
produce
gas.
So
even
if
the
straight
of
Hammoose
were
to
reopen,
fewer
gas
would
flow
through.
That
suggests
structurally
higher
prices
and
of
course
less
economic
growth,
fewer
inputs,
fewer
outputs.
Now
the
strike
by
Iran
was
in
response
to
Israel
strike
on
Iranian
gas
fields.
Now
Iran
had
told
everyone
that
if
you
strike
our
energy
facilities,
we
will
escalate
and
we
will
attack
neighboring
Gulf
facilities.
they
were
attacked
and
that's
exactly
what
they
did
and
President
Trump
seems
to
have
panicly
panicked
in
a
sense,
and
immediately
said
that
you
know
this
is
not
going
to
happen
anymore.
So
we
do
have
some
degree
of
dant
mutually
excured
destruction
over
there.
Um
but
as
long
as
the
street
of
Hermoose
remains
closed,
it
does
it
seems
like
this
is
just
not
a
solution
and
oil
prices
will
continue
to
drift
higher.
Now,
although
the
president
said
that
he's
thinking
about
winding
down
the
war,
at
the
same
time,
we
also
have
reports
that
he's
sending
in
the
Marines.
So,
it
looks
like
Marines
are
being
deployed
and
in
a
week
or
two,
there's
going
to
be
a
few
thousand
Marines
uh
in
in
around
Iran
potentially
as
an
option
to
take
Kar
Island.
Now,
there's
some
reports
suggesting
that
the
president
thinks
that
if
he
were
to
take
Car
Island,
which
he
perceives
to
be
a
major
part
of
Iranian
oil
infrastructure,
and
there
are
oil
analysts
who
disagree
with
this,
maybe
it
will
have
more
negotiating
leverage
to
try
to
demand
a
better
deal.
That
seems
to
be
how
he's
thinking
about
it.
So,
uh,
in
that
sense,
maybe
he's
right
in
saying
that
the
war
is
winding
down.
If
in
his
in
his
mind
he
is
able
to
successfully
take
Car
Island
and
then
demand
a
resolution
then
yeah,
maybe
the
war
is
is
almost
over.
Again,
there
are
three
people
at
this
table
from
from
Israel's
perspective
doesn't
seem
like
they
they
want
to
wind
down.
I
mean,
Prime
Minister
Netanyahu
is
on
the
record
saying
that
you
know,
maybe
there
might
be
a
ground
component
that
might
need
and
the
ground
component
could
be
many
things.
It
could
be
the
Iranian
people
rising
up.
It
could
be
Marines
on
the
ground
and
so
forth,
but
it
seems
unlikely
that
he
would
just
call
it
quits
when
from
this
perspective
hasn't
really
completed
the
mission,
right?
Hasn't
really
taken
hold
of
the
uranium
or
destroyed
the
Iran's
missile
capabilities
and
so
forth.
So,
it
doesn't
seem
to
to
me
that
it's
time
for
him
to
quit.
Now,
from
Iran's
perspective,
we're
getting
kind
of
an
interesting
picture
of
how
the
world
war
could
end.
Now
this
morning
we
have
news
that
Iran
and
Japan
are
negotiating
for
passage
through
the
straight
of
Harmuz.
We
also
have
anecdotal
reports
that
some
countries
are
paying
a
toll
to
Iran
for
passage
through
uh
the
strait.
So
what
could
happen
for
them
as
a
potential
endgame
is
that
they
retain
control
of
the
straight
of
Humuz
and
everyone
can
pass
but
in
order
to
pass,
you
got
to
pay
up.
Now
there
are
reports
suggesting
that
the
payment
is
actually
settled
in
R&B,
so
it
would
be
held
in
the
bank
in
China
safe
from
US
sanctions.
If
that
were
the
case,
if
Iran
were
to
be
able
to
retain
control
of
the
trade
of
a
moves
so
it's
better
scenario
for
the
global
economy
than
it
is
now,
because
oil
and
gas
will
be
flowing,
gas
and
oil
prices
will
come
down.
um,
that
is
great
for
for
the
global
economy
and
great
for
many
people
who
otherwise
I
think
we
would
have
severe
threat
of
actually
starvation
in
poor
countries.
Um,
but
at
the
end
of
the
day,
oil
and
gas
prices
will
be
structurally
higher
to
account
for
that
toll
and
Iran
will
be
making
money.
Iran
has
been
sanctioned
heavily
uh
throughout
by
basically
everyone
except
China
and
then
Iran's
friends.
Um,
so
it
will
be
able
to
get
some
more
income
and
that
will
help
him
economically
and
maybe
they
can
paint
this
as
reparations
for
the
damage
done
and
be
willing
to
to
settle
that.
However,
of
course,
it
seems
unlikely
that
the
United
States
and
um,
everyone
else
well
and
Israel
would
accept
an
Iran
not
just
intact,
but
also
collecting
toll,
making
money.
Now,
Treasury
Secretary
Scott
Besson
on
Friday
actually
uh
lifted
sanctions
on
Iranian
oil
that
is
at
sea
and
allowed
Iran
to
sell
that.
That
hasn't
happened
for
a
very
long
time.
And
so,
so
far
at
least,
uh,
seems
like
Iran
has
been
able
to
make
money
off
this
conflict.
Again,
we
are
in
the
fog
of
war.
No
one
knows
what's
going
to
happen.
Uh,
but
that's
just
a
possible
way
that
this
war
can
end
in
the
coming
weeks.
Again,
every
day
that
this
conflict
goes
on,
that's
energy
that's
not
being
uh,
not
being
produced,
not
being
sent.
And
that
raises
the
risk
of
a
global
recession.
I
personally
think
that
the
global
economy
has
already
been
nuked.
We
are
all
just
bathing
in
radiation.
And
as
radiation
sickness
goes,
first
you
feel
fine,
then
you
don't
feel
fine,
and
then
you
die.
So,
I
think
things
are
are
not
good.
And
I
wouldn't
look
solely
to
the
stock
market
as
a
barometer
because
again
markets
the
stock
market
and
the
real
economy
uh,
they
are
related,
but
they're
not
the
same
thing.
All
right,
so
that's
how
I
prepare
for
today.
Thanks
so
much
for
tuning
in,
and
I
think
next
week
will
be
also
very
exciting.
### 地缘政治升级与市场恐慌
我们再来看一下**中东的最新局势**。**石油价格**依然**居高不下**，**布伦特原油**价格在**110美元**左右波动，但看起来**不太可能**短期内**大幅下跌**。
关于战争的消息，准确的信息很难获取。我们正处于一个**信息宣传战**的高峰期。你可能反复听到**美国**宣称摧毁了**伊朗**的所有军事能力，包括海军、导弹发射系统等。但同时，**伊朗**一直在**发射导弹**，这似乎有些矛盾。
许多人期待**特朗普总统**能够**缓和局势**。这似乎是大多数人的预期，就像在“**解放日**”发生的那样。周五市场收盘后，特朗普在**Truth Social**上发帖，暗示他正在考虑**结束战争**。盘后交易中，市场将此解读为某种**利好信号**，并**积极交易**。
然而，我建议**保持谨慎**。因为正如我们所知，特朗普说过很多话，但**很多事情并未兑现**。就在一周前，他还告诉大家战争“**非常完整**”（very complete），但此后战争**确实升级了**。
上周最大的**升级**，无疑与**能源生产设施**的**袭击**有关。目前**霍尔木兹海峡**基本**保持关闭**，能源运输受阻。海湾国家的**产能**在**上周**之前并未受到影响。但上周，**伊朗导弹袭击了卡塔尔的主要天然气田**。**卡塔尔**是**世界主要天然气生产国之一**。据报道，这次袭击**摧毁了其产能**，他们可能**需要数年时间**才能恢复到**原有产能水平**。这意味着全球**天然气生产能力**出现了**结构性下降**。即使**霍尔木兹海峡**重新开放，**流出的天然气也会减少**。这将导致**价格结构性上涨**，并**抑制经济增长**，减少**投入**和**产出**。
伊朗的这次袭击是对**以色列**袭击**伊朗天然气田**的回应。伊朗曾警告，如果其能源设施被攻击，他们将**升级**并**袭击邻近海湾设施**。他们的警告**得到了兑现**。
**特朗普总统**似乎**感到恐慌**，并立即表示“**这不会再发生了**”。所以，我们确实存在一定程度的**相互确保摧毁**（mutually assured destruction）。但是，只要**霍尔木兹海峡**保持关闭，这就**不是一个解决方案**，**油价将继续上涨**。
虽然总统表示他正在考虑**结束战争**，但同时也有报道称他正在**派遣海军陆战队**。看起来海军陆战队正在部署，一到两周内，可能有**数千名海军陆战队员**抵达**伊朗附近**，作为**占领卡尔岛（Kar Island）**的选项。一些报道暗示，总统认为如果他能成功**夺取卡尔岛**——他认为这是**伊朗石油基础设施的重要组成部分**（尽管一些石油分析师对此持不同意见）——也许他就能获得**更大的谈判筹码**，要求**更好的交易**。这似乎是他**思考问题的角度**。
因此，从这个意义上说，他可能**说对**了，战争**正在走向结束**。如果他能在自己心中**成功夺取卡尔岛**，并**要求达成解决方案**，那么是的，战争**可能**就**快结束了**。
然而，从**以色列**的角度来看，似乎**他们并不想结束**。**内塔尼亚胡总理**曾公开表示，可能需要**地面行动**。地面行动可能包含多种形式：可能是**伊朗人民起义**，可能是**海军陆战队登陆**等等。但当他的**任务**——**控制铀**或**摧毁伊朗的导弹能力**——**尚未真正完成**时，他似乎**不太可能**就此**罢手**。因此，在我看来，现在**还不是他收手的时候**。
Original English
So
that's
how
a
central
bank
would
normally
look
at
this.
And
again
there's
some
there's
some
nuance
to
this
because
for
the
US
for
example
the
Fed
is
a
dualmandate
central
bank.
It's
full
employment
and
price
stability.
they
can't
really
focus
totally
on
inflation
to
begin
with.
For
other
central
banks,
Bank
of
England,
the
ECB,
it's
a
different
case.
They
are
only
thinking
about
inflation.
And
sure,
I
think
you
can
more
make
a
make
a
more
forceful
case
about
uh
adjusting
policy
depending
on
how
you
perceive
the
energy
shock.
Now,
the
leading
uh
dove
on
the
FOMC
has
been
Governor
Waller.
He's
has
a
very
good
track
record.
he's
been
right
about
a
lot
of
things
during
the
past
few
years
and
so
many
people
look
to
him
as
to
u
what
monetary
policy
could
be.
So
I
think
it
surprised
me
and
a
lot
of
people
that
he
did
not
desent
at
the
last
FOMC
meeting.
The
reason
being
that
in
January
he
desented
citing
notable
weakness
in
the
labor
market,
anecdotal
reports
that
maybe
we'll
have
a
lot
of
job
loss
and
subsequently
the
most
recent
jobs
report
showed
a
big
loss
in
jobs.
So
I
was
thinking
that
maybe
Governor
Waller
would
descend.
He
did
not.
And
in
his
latest
public
remarks,
he
tells
you
why.
He
is
coming
along
to
the
view
that
because
labor
force
projection
is
projected
to
not
grow
this
year
that
maybe
the
break
even
rate
for
for
the
unemployment
rate
be
is
zero.
And
so
if
that's
the
case,
we
should
not
be
surprised
if
there's
basically
no
job
growth.
Of
course,
losing
jobs
is
a
whole
another
matter,
but
that
kind
of
makes
the
recent
job
losses
a
little
bit
less
concerning.
So
again,
that's
hawkish.
And
let's
hear
what
he
said
about
the
energy
shock.
>> I
always
want
to
point
out
that
something
where
the
oil
goes
up
and
then
it
comes
down
is
very
different
than
oil
goes
up
and
then
stays
there
for
a
long
time.
That's
where
you
get
back
to
this
issue
where
it
bleeds
through
back
into
core
inflation
and
then
you
do
have
to
kind
of
respond.
You
can't
just
look
through
it.
So,
what
he's
saying
is
that
sure,
we
can
look
past
these
temporary
spikes,
but
if
this
is
a
structural
long-term
thing,
like
the
energy
prices
go
up
and
just
stay
up,
it's
eventually
going
to
bleed
into
everything,
and
he
doesn't
think
that
he
could
look
through
that.
Now,
that
doesn't
mean
the
Fed
is
going
to
hike.
Again,
that
full
employment
mandate
is
going
to
be
a
constraint,
but
he
is
strongly
suggesting,
but
at
least
for
now,
he's
not
projecting
any
cuts.
Although
he
did
also
note
that
should
the
labor
market,
you
know,
weaken
further
and
then
later
on
we
have
more
clarity,
he
could
be
open
to
be
advocating
rate
cuts
later
in
the
year.
But
at
the
moment,
uh
that's
uh
that
he's
uh
going
to
just
watch
and
see.
And
so
when
you
have
a
leading
dove
kind
of
shift
like
that,
the
market
is
now
pricing
in
a
much
more
hogish
policy
path.
And
again,
when
you
have
this
huge
shift,
huge
sea
change
in
the
stance
of
central
bank
policy,
it's
going
to
bleed
into
a
ton
of
assets.
And
we
see
that
uh
this
this
past
week
as
well.
The
S&P
500
did
not
do
very
well.
Broke
the
100
day
moving
average
and
even
dipped
briefly
below
6,500.
Now,
you
other
assets
like
gold
also
took
a
pretty
big
beating.
Again,
I
think
gold
is
kind
of a
I
think
it's
a
little
bit
surprising
to
many
people.
You'd
expect
that
geopolitical
risk
to
support
gold,
but
at
the
same
time,
the
dollar
is
strengthening,
rates
are
going
higher,
and
you
do
see
gold
losing
some
key
momentum
signals.
The
50-day
moving
average,
for
example,
and
historically,
the
100
day
moving
average
has
also
been
of
support.
Looks
like
it
lost
that
as
well.
So,
you
could
have
some
technical
moves
over
there.
So,
there
was
basically
no
place
to
hide
in
the
market
the
past
week.
Bonds
selling
off,
uh,
equity
selling
off,
gold
selling
off.
It
was
it
was
a
terrible
week
in
financial
assets
and
looking
across
the
world
it
looks
like
this
is
going
to
continue
unless
we
get
some
finally
get
some
good
news
from
the
war
in
the
Middle
East
uh
which
is
what
we'll
talk
about
now.
So
just
looking
at
the
oil
price
you
can
see
that
the
oil
price
just
kind
of
is
is
quite
elevated.
So,
it
is
volatile
with
Brent
crude
around
$110,
but
basically
it's
uh
it's
kind
of
doesn't
look
like
it's
it's
going
down
now.
It's
really
hard
to
get
news,
accurate
news
of
the
war.
We
are
of
course
at
a
time
where
everyone
is
in
full
propaganda
mode.
Uh
you
hear
over
and
over
again
that
the
US
has
destroyed
all
Iran's
capabilities,
its
navies,
it
launches,
its
missiles
and
so
forth.
But
at
the
same
time,
Iran
keeps
launching
missiles,
right?
So
something's
not
adding
up.
Now,
many
people
of
course
are
looking
to
President
Trump
to
kind
of
back
down.
That's
what
everyone
is
expects
him
to
do.
That's
seems
to
be
what
happened
in
um
liberation
day.
And
on
Friday
after
the
market
closed,
we
had
a
truth
social
post
from
President
Trump
suggesting
that
he's
thinking
about
winding
down
the
war.
and
aftermarket
the
markets
took
that
to
be
some
kind
of
taco
and
and
traded
very
positively.
Now
I
would
be
cautious
about
that
because
as
we
all
know
Trump
has
been
saying
a
lot
of
things
and
a
lot
of
things
haven't
been
adding
up.
I
think
this
just
a
week
ago
he
was
telling
everyone
that
the
war
was
very
complete
uh
but
uh
but
since
then
the
war
did
escalate.
The
biggest
escalation
last
week
of
course
has
to
do
with
attacks
on
energy
production
facilities.
Now
the
straight
of
harmon
remains
largely
closed
and
so
energy
is
not
going
through
but
the
capacity
of
of
the
Gulf
states
to
produce
hasn't
been
impacted
until
last
week,
when
we
had
an
Iranian
missile
attack
on
major
Qatari
gas
fields.
Now
Qatar
is
one
of
the
largest
gas
producers
in
the
world,
and
according
to
reports,
that
attack
took
down
their
capacity
and
they
may
not
be
able
to
produce
gas
at
the
same
capacity
for
another
few
years.
So
that's
a
structural
decline
in
the
capacity
of
the
world
to
produce
gas.
So
even
if
the
straight
of
Hammoose
were
to
reopen,
fewer
gas
would
flow
through.
That
suggests
structurally
higher
prices
and
of
course
less
economic
growth,
fewer
inputs,
fewer
outputs.
Now
the
strike
by
Iran
was
in
response
to
Israel
strike
on
Iranian
gas
fields.
Now
Iran
had
told
everyone
that
if
you
strike
our
energy
facilities,
we
will
escalate
and
we
will
attack
neighboring
Gulf
facilities.
they
were
attacked
and
that's
exactly
what
they
did
and
President
Trump
seems
to
have
panicly
panicked
in
a
sense,
and
immediately
said
that
you
know
this
is
not
going
to
happen
anymore.
So
we
do
have
some
degree
of
dant
mutually
excured
destruction
over
there.
Um
but
as
long
as
the
street
of
Hermoose
remains
closed,
it
does
it
seems
like
this
is
just
not
a
solution
and
oil
prices
will
continue
to
drift
higher.
Now,
although
the
president
said
that
he's
thinking
about
winding
down
the
war,
at
the
same
time,
we
also
have
reports
that
he's
sending
in
the
Marines.
So,
it
looks
like
Marines
are
being
deployed
and
in
a
week
or
two,
there's
going
to
be
a
few
thousand
Marines
uh
in
in
around
Iran
potentially
as
an
option
to
take
Kar
Island.
Now,
there's
some
reports
suggesting
that
the
president
thinks
that
if
he
were
to
take
Car
Island,
which
he
perceives
to
be
a
major
part
of
Iranian
oil
infrastructure,
and
there
are
oil
analysts
who
disagree
with
this,
maybe
it
will
have
more
negotiating
leverage
to
try
to
demand
a
better
deal.
That
seems
to
be
how
he's
thinking
about
it.
So,
uh,
in
that
sense,
maybe
he's
right
in
saying
that
the
war
is
winding
down.
If
in
his
in
his
mind
he
is
able
to
successfully
take
Car
Island
and
then
demand
a
resolution
then
yeah,
maybe
the
war
is
is
almost
over.
Again,
there
are
three
people
at
this
table
from
from
Israel's
perspective
doesn't
seem
like
they
they
want
to
wind
down.
I
mean,
Prime
Minister
Netanyahu
is
on
the
record
saying
that
you
know,
maybe
there
might
be
a
ground
component
that
might
need
and
the
ground
component
could
be
many
things.
It
could
be
the
Iranian
people
rising
up.
It
could
be
Marines
on
the
ground
and
so
forth,
but
it
seems
unlikely
that
he
would
just
call
it
quits
when
from
this
perspective
hasn't
really
completed
the
mission,
right?
Hasn't
really
taken
hold
of
the
uranium
or
destroyed
the
Iran's
missile
capabilities
and
so
forth.
So,
it
doesn't
seem
to
to
me
that
it's
time
for
him
to
quit.
Now,
from
Iran's
perspective,
we're
getting
kind
of
an
interesting
picture
of
how
the
world
war
could
end.
Now
this
morning
we
have
news
that
Iran
and
Japan
are
negotiating
for
passage
through
the
straight
of
Harmuz.
We
also
have
anecdotal
reports
that
some
countries
are
paying
a
toll
to
Iran
for
passage
through
uh
the
strait.
So
what
could
happen
for
them
as
a
potential
endgame
is
that
they
retain
control
of
the
straight
of
Humuz
and
everyone
can
pass
but
in
order
to
pass,
you
got
to
pay
up.
Now
there
are
reports
suggesting
that
the
payment
is
actually
settled
in
R&B,
so
it
would
be
held
in
the
bank
in
China
safe
from
US
sanctions.
If
that
were
the
case,
if
Iran
were
to
be
able
to
retain
control
of
the
trade
of
a
moves
so
it's
better
scenario
for
the
global
economy
than
it
is
now,
because
oil
and
gas
will
be
flowing,
gas
and
oil
prices
will
come
down.
um,
that
is
great
for
for
the
global
economy
and
great
for
many
people
who
otherwise
I
think
we
would
have
severe
threat
of
actually
starvation
in
poor
countries.
Um,
but
at
the
end
of
the
day,
oil
and
gas
prices
will
be
structurally
higher
to
account
for
that
toll
and
Iran
will
be
making
money.
Iran
has
been
sanctioned
heavily
uh
throughout
by
basically
everyone
except
China
and
then
Iran's
friends.
Um,
so
it
will
be
able
to
get
some
more
income
and
that
will
help
him
economically
and
maybe
they
can
paint
this
as
reparations
for
the
damage
done
and
be
willing
to
to
settle
that.
However,
of
course,
it
seems
unlikely
that
the
United
States
and
um,
everyone
else
well
and
Israel
would
accept
an
Iran
not
just
intact,
but
also
collecting
toll,
making
money.
Now,
Treasury
Secretary
Scott
Besson
on
Friday
actually
uh
lifted
sanctions
on
Iranian
oil
that
is
at
sea
and
allowed
Iran
to
sell
that.
That
hasn't
happened
for
a
very
long
time.
And
so,
so
far
at
least,
uh,
seems
like
Iran
has
been
able
to
make
money
off
this
conflict.
Again,
we
are
in
the
fog
of
war.
No
one
knows
what's
going
to
happen.
Uh,
but
that's
just
a
possible
way
that
this
war
can
end
in
the
coming
weeks.
Again,
every
day
that
this
conflict
goes
on,
that's
energy
that's
not
being
uh,
not
being
produced,
not
being
sent.
And
that
raises
the
risk
of
a
global
recession.
I
personally
think
that
the
global
economy
has
already
been
nuked.
We
are
all
just
bathing
in
radiation.
And
as
radiation
sickness
goes,
first
you
feel
fine,
then
you
don't
feel
fine,
and
then
you
die.
So,
I
think
things
are
are
not
good.
And
I
wouldn't
look
solely
to
the
stock
market
as
a
barometer
because
again
markets
the
stock
market
and
the
real
economy
uh,
they
are
related,
but
they're
not
the
same
thing.
All
right,
so
that's
how
I
prepare
for
today.
Thanks
so
much
for
tuning
in,
and
I
think
next
week
will
be
also
very
exciting.
### 潜在的战争结局与经济展望
从**伊朗**的角度来看，我们看到了**世界战争**可能如何结束的一个**有趣画面**。本周**早些时候**，有消息称**伊朗**和**日本**正在就**通过霍尔木兹海峡的航行权**进行谈判。我们还收到一些**传闻**，称一些国家正**向伊朗支付费用**，以通过该海峡。
因此，对他们来说，一个**潜在的结局**可能是：他们**保留了对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权**，**允许所有船只通过**，但**前提是必须付费**。有报道称，这种支付可能**实际上以人民币结算**，并存放在**中国的银行**，从而**规避美国的制裁**。
如果真是如此，如果伊朗能够**保有对海峡贸易的控制权**，那么这对**全球经济**来说将是**比现在更好的局面**，因为**石油和天然气将继续流通**，**价格也会随之下降**。这对全球经济是**利好**，也对那些否则可能面临**严重饥饿威胁**的**贫穷国家**的人们是**好事**。
然而，从长远来看，**石油和天然气价格**将**结构性地走高**，以**弥补**这笔**通行费**，而**伊朗**将从中**获利**。伊朗长期以来一直受到**几乎所有国家**（除中国及部分友好国家外）的**严厉制裁**。因此，如果伊朗能够获得**更多收入**，这将在**经济上帮助它**，也许他们可以将其**宣传为**对其所受**损害的赔偿**，并愿意就此**达成和解**。
当然，**美国**和**以色列**不太可能接受一个**完整**且**还在收取通行费、赚钱**的**伊朗**。
周五，**美国财政部长 Scott Besson**确实**解除了对海上伊朗石油的制裁**，允许伊朗出售这些石油。这已经**很久没有发生过了**。所以，至少到目前为止，伊朗似乎**能够**从这场冲突中**获利**。
再次强调，我们正处于**战争的迷雾**之中。**没人知道**接下来会发生什么。但这只是这场战争**未来几周可能结束**的一种**可能方式**。
同样，**每一次冲突的持续**，都意味着**更多能源**未能**被生产**或**被输送**。这**增加了全球经济衰退的风险**。我个人认为，**全球经济**已经**被摧毁**了（nuked）。我们都只是在**辐射中沐浴**。而**辐射病**的过程是：**起初感觉良好，然后感觉不好，最后死亡**。所以，我认为情况**并不乐观**。
而且，**不要仅仅**将**股市**视为**晴雨表**。因为**股市**和**实体经济**是**相关**的，但**并非同一回事**。
好了，这就是我今天准备的内容。非常感谢大家的收听，我相信**下周**也会非常**精彩**。
Original English
Now,
although
the
president
said
that
he's
thinking
about
winding
down
the
war,
at
the
same
time,
we
also
have
reports
that
he's
sending
in
the
Marines.
So,
it
looks
like
Marines
are
being
deployed,
and
in
a
week
or
two,
there's
going
to
be
a
few
thousand
Marines
uh
in
in
around
Iran
potentially
as
an
option
to
take
Kar
Island.
Now,
there's
some
reports
suggesting
that
the
president
thinks
that
if
he
were
to
take
Car
Island,
which
he
perceives
to
be
a
major
part
of
Iranian
oil
infrastructure,
and
there
are
oil
analysts
who
disagree
with
this,
maybe
it
will
have
more
negotiating
leverage
to
try
to
demand
a
better
deal.
That
seems
to
be
how
he's
thinking
about
it.
So,
uh,
in
that
sense,
maybe
he's
right
in
saying
that
the
war
is
winding
down.
If
in
his
in
his
mind,
he
is
able
to
successfully
take
Car
Island
and
then
demand
a
resolution,
then
yeah,
maybe
the
war
is
is
almost
over.
Again,
there
are
three
people
at
this
table
from
from
Israel's
perspective
doesn't
seem
like
they
they
want
to
wind
down.
I
mean,
Prime
Minister
Netanyahu
is
on
the
record
saying
that
you
know,
maybe
there
might
be
a
ground
component
that
might
need
and
the
ground
component
could
be
many
things.
It
could
be
the
Iranian
people
rising
up.
It
could
be
Marines
on
the
ground
and
so
forth,
but
it
seems
unlikely
that
he
would
just
call
it
quits
when
from
this
perspective
hasn't
really
completed
the
mission,
right?
Hasn't
really
taken
hold
of
the
uranium
or
destroyed
the
Iran's
missile
capabilities
and
so
forth.
So,
it
doesn't
seem
to
to
me
that
it's
time
for
him
to
quit.
Now,
from
Iran's
perspective,
we're
getting
kind
of
an
interesting
picture
of
how
the
world
war
could
end.
Now
this
morning
we
have
news
that
Iran
and
Japan
are
negotiating
for
passage
through
the
straight
of
Harmuz.
We
also
have
anecdotal
reports
that
some
countries
are
paying
a
toll
to
Iran
for
passage
through
uh
the
strait.
So
what
could
happen
for
them
as
a
potential
endgame
is
that
they
retain
control
of
the
straight
of
Humuz
and
everyone
can
pass
but
in
order
to
pass,
you
got
to
pay
up.
Now
there
are
reports
suggesting
that
the
payment
is
actually
settled
in
R&B,
so
it
would
be
held
in
the
bank
in
China
safe
from
US
sanctions.
If
that
were
the
case,
if
Iran
were
to
be
able
to
retain
control
of
the
trade
of
a
moves
so
it's
better
scenario
for
the
global
economy
than
it
is
now,
because
oil
and
gas
will
be
flowing,
gas
and
oil
prices
will
come
down.
um,
that
is
great
for
for
the
global
economy
and
great
for
many
people
who
otherwise
I
think
we
would
have
severe
threat
of
actually
starvation
in
poor
countries.
Um,
but
at
the
end
of
the
day,
oil
and
gas
prices
will
be
structurally
higher
to
account
for
that
toll
and
Iran
will
be
making
money.
Iran
has
been
sanctioned
heavily
uh
throughout
by
basically
everyone
except
China
and
then
Iran's
friends.
Um,
so
it
will
be
able
to
get
some
more
income
and
that
will
help
him
economically
and
maybe
they
can
paint
this
as
reparations
for
the
damage
done
and
be
willing
to
to
settle
that.
However,
of
course,
it
seems
unlikely
that
the
United
States
and
um,
everyone
else
well
and
Israel
would
accept
an
Iran
not
just
intact,
but
also
collecting
toll,
making
money.
Now,
Treasury
Secretary
Scott
Besson
on
Friday
actually
uh
lifted
sanctions
on
Iranian
oil
that
is
at
sea
and
allowed
Iran
to
sell
that.
That
hasn't
happened
for
a
very
long
time.
And
so,
so
far
at
least,
uh,
seems
like
Iran
has
been
able
to
make
money
off
this
conflict.
Again,
we
are
in
the
fog
of
war.
No
one
knows
what's
going
to
happen.
Uh,
but
that's
just
a
possible
way
that
this
war
can
end
in
the
coming
weeks.
Again,
every
day
that
this
conflict
goes
on,
that's
energy
that's
not
being
uh,
not
being
produced,
not
being
sent.
And
that
raises
the
risk
of
a
global
recession.
I
personally
think
that
the
global
economy
has
already
been
nuked.
We
are
all
just
bathing
in
radiation.
And
as
radiation
sickness
goes,
first
you
feel
fine,
then
you
don't
feel
fine,
and
then
you
die.
So,
I
think
things
are
are
not
good.
And
I
wouldn't
look
solely
to
the
stock
market
as
a
barometer
because
again
markets
the
stock
market
and
the
real
economy
uh,
they
are
related,
but
they're
not
the
same
thing.
All
right,
so
that's
how
I
prepare
for
today.
Thanks
so
much
for
tuning
in,
and
I
think
next
week
will
be
also
very
exciting.