--- author: AI Engineer date: '2026-11-02' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUJDyDnqT4c speaker: AI Engineer tags: - ai-transformation - change-management - business-process - profitability - enterprise-ai title: AI 转型如何真正影响损益表：驱动业务变革的六大举措 summary: 演讲者以货运航空公司机组排班为例，指出大多企业虽采用 AI 却仅 6% 报告显著息税前利润影响。技术仅占一小部分，变革管理才是核心。通过重塑端到端流程、CEO 挂帅、业务共建及设立终止指标等六项举措，企业方能推动真正的利润增长。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: ai-application area: tech-engineering project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: [] products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 货运航空公司的排班困境与 AI 的生产力悖论 大家好，早上好。我叫 Adam Nahari。今天我想分享一些关于推动成功的 AI 转型的思考，我想从一个具体的场景切入：一家大型货运航空公司的排班台。
Original English [music] >> Hi everybody. Good morning. Um, my name is Adam Nahari. I'm going to share a few thoughts today on driving a successful AI transformation and I want to start somewhere specific, a scheduling desk for a large cargo airline.
当一架飞机发生故障时，排班员只有 15 分钟来为该航班重新安排机组。这个流程完全是手动的，排班员必须考虑休息规则、资质要求以及每位飞行员当前所在的位置。
Original English An aircraft experiences a failure, the scheduler has 15 minutes to re-crew the flight. The process is entirely manual and the scheduler has to consider rest rules, qualifications, where each pilot is.
他们找出了一个合规的解决方案，但这并不一定是最便宜的方案。通常情况下，他们甚至找不出任何合规的解决方案，在这种情况下，应急的“减压阀”就是溢价报酬——花更多的钱让问题消失。
Original English They identify one legal solution and it's not necessarily the cheapest one. Often, they identify no legal solutions, in which case the release valve is premium pay, paying more to make the problem go away.
这种情况每天都在整个航线网络中上演，而机组成本是仅次于燃油的第二大成本。还记得那位排班员吗？我待会儿还会回过头来讲他。
Original English This happens every day across the entire network and crew is the second largest cost after fuel. Remember the scheduler? I'm going to come back to him.
我们把视野放宽一点。AI 工具确实有用，在座的各位都知道它们有用。在过去 3 年内，超过 55% 的美国成年人使用过生成式 AI。在技术普及曲线的同一时间节点上，个人电脑（PC）当时的普及率只有 20%，互联网只有 30%。近 90% 的企业报告至少在一个业务职能中使用了 AI。然而，只有 6% 的企业报告了显著的息税前利润（EBIT）影响。
Original English Let's zoom out. AI tools work. Everybody in this room knows that they work. Over 55% of US adults have used generative AI within the last 3 years. At the same point in the curve, the PC was at 20% and the internet was at 30%. Almost 90% of businesses report using AI in at least one business function. And yet, only 6% report significant EBIT impact.
节省时间是实打实的。人们确实报告了这一点。如果把这些时间加起来，大约相当于美国总工作时间的 2%，但几乎没有任何成效体现在损益表（P&L）中。
Original English Time savings is real. People report it. If you add it up, it amounts to about 2% of total US working hours, and yet almost none of that shows up in the P&L.
罗伯特·索洛（Robert Solow）曾有一句名言：“除了在生产率统计数据中，你在哪里都能看到计算机时代。”那是他在 1987 年说的。今天我们看到同样的事情以更大的规模、更快的速度再次上演。
Original English Robert Solow famously said, "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics." He said that in 1987. We are seeing the same thing happen again today on a larger scale and faster speeds.
### 技术与变革管理的比例：1 比 5 为什么会这样？那 6% 看到实质性息税前利润影响的企业究竟有什么不同的做法？这是我的答案：在我领导或近距离观察过的每一次 AI 转型中，工程技术都只是较小的一部分。
Original English Why is that? And what do the 6% that see material EBIT impact do differently? Here's my answer. For every AI transformation that I've led or watched up close, engineering was the smaller part.
每投入 5 个单位的**变革管理**，才会有 1 个单位的**工程技术**。这就是我的心智模型。而且这一比例还在变化，随着模型越来越好，工程所占的份额只会越来越小。
Original English For every five units of change management, there's only one unit of engineering. That's my mental model. And this ratio is moving. As models get better and better, the engineering share is only shrinking.
选择正确的问题、建立认同感、推动采纳、衡量影响，这些才是真正耗费时间和精力的地方，也是失败往往发生的地方。因此在接下来的演讲中，我将重点谈谈这 5 个单位的变革管理。
Original English Picking the right problem, creating buy-in, driving adoption, measuring impact, that's where the real time and effort goes, and that's where failures tend to happen. So, for the rest of this talk, I'm going to focus on those five units of change management.
### 企业 AI 的三个层次 那么，为什么即便工具有效，损益表却没有变动呢？我喜欢把企业中的 AI 分为这三个层次： 第一层是**通用生产力**，也就是我们都在使用的 Copilot 和聊天机器人。因为每个人都能用上它们，这些收益往往体现在价格上，而不是利润率上——它们被竞争抹平了。
Original English So, why doesn't the P&L move even though the tools work? I like to think of AI in businesses in these three layers. The first layer is general productivity, the copilots and chatbots that we all use. Because everyone has access to them, gains tend to show up in price but not in margin. They get competed away.
第二层是**特定领域的 AI**。你可以把它们看作针对特定业务职能的 Copilot，或者是基于你的业务文档进行检索的工具。这些工具能够实现更快的检索，以及更好、更深入地利用你的企业知识。
Original English The second layer is domain-specific AI. You can think of these as um business function-specific co-pilots or retrieval over your business documents. These tools allow for faster retrieval and better and deeper use of your enterprise knowledge.
最后是第三层，**核心运营 AI**。这些是嵌入到业务流程中、构成你业务核心特征的垂直系统。航空公司的机组排班就是一个极佳的例子。因为你无法在市面上直接买到现成的这些工具和这种变革管理，所以这些收益往往能保留在利润率中。
Original English And finally, the third layer, core operational AI, these are the vertical systems embedded in the business processes that make your business what it is. So, crew scheduling for airlines is a great example of this. And because you can't buy these tools, this change management off the shelf, these gains tend to remain in margin.
大多数企业都在第一层进行投资，但那些看到实质性息税前利润影响的企业，重新进行端到端全流程设计的可能性是仅仅采用新工具的企业的**三倍**。他们在投资第一层的同时，也在投资第三层。
Original English Most businesses are investing in layer one, but the businesses that see material EBIT impact are three times as [clears throat] likely to redesign an entire workflow end-to-end rather than just adopting a new tool. They're work They're investing in layer three in addition to investing in layer one.
### 推动 AI 转型的六大举措 我想梳理一下我认为推动成功的 AI 转型并撬动损益表的六项关键举措。 **举措一：选择一两个问题，而不是 40 个。** 让我们从损益表出发倒推。对于一家航空公司而言，北极星指标可能是 EBITDA。该指标的四个驱动因素是：航线（代表需求）、机尾号/飞机配置（代表供给）、维护（决定约束条件）以及机组（成本驱动因素）。这是一个如此显著的成本驱动因素，因此我们决定从这里切入并聚焦于此。正如我之前提到的，它是仅次于燃油的第二大成本驱动因素。
Original English I'd like to go through the six moves that in my mind are key to driving a successful AI transformation and moving the P&L. Move number one. Pick one or two problems, not 40. Let's start with a P&L and work our way backwards. So, for an airline, that North Star metric might be EBITDA. The four drivers of that metric are routes, which is demand, tails, which is supply, maintenance, which dictate constraints, and crew, which is the cost driver. It's such a significant cost driver that we decided to start and focus there. As I mentioned, it's the second highest cost driver after fuel.
在这家公司，我们没有去开展 40 个试点项目。我们只选择了这一项倡议，如果做对了，它将真正带来显著的改变。 在右侧，你可以看到我在一个好的用例或问题中寻找的五个要素： 1. 它能影响首席财务官（CFO）所认可的财务科目； 2. 它是可衡量的，并且基线是预先商定而非事后追溯的； 3. 技术和数据基础设施已为转型做好准备，且公司拥有该数据的所有权； 4. 有具名的用户需要它并能主导推进该倡议——是一个具体的人，而非一个部门； 5. 这是首席执行官（CEO）的前五大优先事项之一。
Original English We did not work on 40 pilots at this company. We chose this one initiative that, if we got right, would be truly needle moving. So, on the right, you can see the five things that I look for in a good use case or problem. The first is it moves a line the CFO recognizes. It's measurable with a baseline agreed upfront, not in retrospect. The tech and data infrastructure is ready for the transformation, and the company owns the data. A named user wants it and can champion the initiative, a person, not a department. And this is one of the CEO's top five priorities.
**举措二：从头到尾重新构想流程。** 这些是示意性的数字，但其核心思想在于：当你拿现有的流程仅仅尝试对其进行自动化时，所获得的收益是渐进式的；而当你围绕新技术重新设计整个流程时，收益可能是真正颠覆性的。
Original English Okay, move number two. Reimagine the process end to end. These are illustrative numbers, but the idea is that when you take an existing process and just try to automate it, the gains are incremental. Whereas, when you redesign an entire process around the new technology, the gains can be truly transformational.
所以在航空公司中，带来 10% 提升的做法是沿用我向你们描述的现有排班流程，给排班员一个工具让他们快一点点。而在另一方面，带来 10 倍提升的做法则是构建一个优化智能体引擎，把所有这些约束条件都考虑在内，生成所有可行解决方案的完整列表，并按成本进行排序。该系统能够在不到一分钟的时间内完成所有这些工作。
Original English So, in airlines, the 10% play would be taking that existing process, scheduling process, that I described to you, and giving the scheduler a tool to make them somewhat faster. On the other hand, the 10x play was building an optimization agent engine that took all of these constraints into account, produced the entire list of possible solutions, and ranked them by cost. And this system was able to do all of that in under a minute.
除了构建该系统之外，我们还重新设计了排班员所经历的流程和工作流。这包括整合公司的所有数据（包括航班、机组、维护），构建我向你们介绍的这个优化引擎，并为排班员构建决策支持应用程序。所有这些工程工作仍然只是该项目中较小的一部分，更大的工作是让它被真正使用起来。
Original English In addition to building that system, we also redesigned the process, the workflow that the scheduler went through. This took consolidating all of the company data, including flights, crew, maintenance, building this optimization age engine that I described to you, and building a decision support app for the schedulers. All of this engineering work was still the smaller part of this project. The bigger job was getting it used.
**举措三：从 CEO 开始。** 在我投入任何资金承担风险之前，我会问的一个问题是：CEO 在哪里？他们是否公开承诺过这项倡议是公司的优先事项？如果他们没有，我就不会为该倡议提供资金。 这与成功的相关性就是如此之强。
Original English Move number three, start with the CEO. Before I put any money at risk, the one question I ask is where is the CEO? Have they committed publicly that this initiative is a priority to the company? If they haven't, I don't fund the initiative. The correlation with success is that strong.
如果没有这一点，公司不一定会明确说“不”，但你会遇到接二连三的日程冲突。数据请求要花上好几周，试点项目被重新排期并推迟。所有人都看 CEO 的眼色行事：损益表负责人为此配备人员，CFO 需要为其提供资金并进行跟踪，CTO 需要为其优先分配工程和技术资源。而这种协同一致性会随着时间的推移而减弱，所以我们需要不断加以巩固。
Original English Without it, the company doesn't necessarily have to say no, but you experience scheduling conflict after scheduling conflict. Data requests take weeks and weeks. Pilots get rescheduled and delayed. Everybody takes their cue from the CEO. The P&L owner staffs it, the CFO who needs to fund and track it, the CTO who needs to prioritize engineering and technical resources for it. And this alignment wears off over time, so we need to keep renewing it.
**举措四：与业务部门共同构建。** 重大的转型需要损益表负责人来推动变革。在航空公司中，机组排班副总裁是这项转型的共同发起人。我们还物色了“AI 拥护者”——从第一天起就融入到解决方案设计中的机组排班员。他们每隔一天就与工程团队碰面一次。
Original English Move number four, building with the business. Significant transformation requires the P&L owner to drive change. In the airline, the VP of crew scheduling was the co-sponsor of this transformation. We also identified AI champions, crew schedulers, that were embedded in the solution design from day one. They met with the engineering team every other day.
他们与工程团队一起设计界面，参与 A/B 测试，并向身边的同事推动这项变革。因此他们接纳了它，因为他们亲自参与了构建。 在人才方面同样如此，我们招聘了新的领导层来构建平台以及处于决策点的 AI。我们聘请了首席信息官（CIO）、数据与 AI 副总裁以及数据科学高级总监。这些人既有技术专长，又有航空领域的专业知识，因此他们理解排班员的工作方式，并能与他们一起设计出契合其实际需求的工具。所以这里的关键在于：组织层面的投资超过了技术投资。
Original English They designed the interface together with the engineering team. They were part of AB testing, and they drove this change to their peers. So, they adopted it because they had a hand in building it. And likewise, talent, we recruited new leadership to build the platform and the AI at the point of decision-making. We hired a chief information officer, a VP of data and AI, and a senior director of data science. These folks had both the technical expertise and the domain expertise in airlines, so they understood how schedulers worked and could work with them to design a tool that fit their needs. So, the takeaway here is that the organizational investment exceeded the techno- the technology investment.
**举措五：把工具交到每个人手中。** 我曾参加过一个由大约 30 位高管参与的 AI 研讨会，我们被要求思考如何用 AI 重新设计我们的业务。然而那间屋子里有四分之三的人在那周之前从未用过任何 AI 工具。如果你从未用过 AI，就不可能用 AI 去重新设计工作流。只有在使用工具的过程中，你才会建立起关于价值所在以及 AI 可以赋能哪些用例的直觉。亲自上手使用工具进行实验，是推动此类转型的最起码要求。
Original English Move five, put the tools in everyone's hands. I was in a AI workshop with 30 or so other executives, and we were asked to think how we might redesign our business with AI. But three out of four people in that room had never used any AI tool until that week. It's impossible to redesign a workflow with AI if you've never used AI. The intuition on where value lies and which use cases can be enabled with AI only comes if you're using the tools. Experimentation with the tools is the absolute minimum requirement to drive this type of transformation.
**举措六：先设立终止指标，并让 CFO 来记分。** 在启动试点之前，我们会明确写下用于决定试点继续还是中止的终止指标。我们在该倡议中使用了三类关卡： 1. **时间关卡**：我们给每个阶段 90 天，如果在这 90 天内看不到价值，我们就会停止该倡议； 2. **指标关卡**：在每个阶段对照我们预先商定的基线进行 A/B 测试； 3. **采纳关卡**：机组排班员对该工具的使用率是否超过 50%？超过 50% 的机组排班员使用。
Original English And move number six, set the kill metrics first and let the CFO keep keep score. Before we start a pilot, we write down what are the kill metrics that will determine if a pilot continues or stops. Three types of gates that we used in this initiative. The first is a time gate. We gave each stage 90 days and if we didn't see value in those 90 days, we would stop the initiative. The second is a metric gate. AB testing at each stage relative to a baseline that we decided on in advance. And the third is an adoption gate. Were the crew schedulers using this tool at over 50%? Over 50% of crew schedulers.
我们与 CFO 密切配合设立的另一项重要检验，是计算该倡议在规模化时的成本（包括算力、Token 以及参与这项工作的人力），是否显著低于该倡议所能产生的成效。很多试点项目在这个阶段折戟，就是因为它们无法通过这项检验。
Original English The other important test that we put in place, working hand-in-hand with the CFO, was calculating whether the cost of this initiative at scale, including compute and token and the individuals involved with this work, was significantly lower than the impact that the initiative would generate. Many pilots die at this stage because they don't pass this test.
### 总结：吸收模型的能力是竞争差异化所在 让我们回顾一下我刚才描述的六项举措： - 首先，要深思熟虑地**选择问题**。选择解决一到两件事，而不是 40 件；从头到尾重新构想整个流程，而不是在可能已经过时的流程上做修补。 - 其次，要**选定责任人**。从 CEO 挂帅起步，并与业务部门协同构建。 - 第三，要**让其落地生根**。确保相关利益方都在亲自上手实验这些工具；在启动试点前预先设定终止指标；并与 CFO 一道审查项目的单位经济可扩展性。
Original English So, let's recap the six moves that I just described. First, you want to be thoughtful about choosing your problem. You want to pick one or two things to tackle, not 40, and you want to reimagine the entire process end-to-end, rather than building on processes that may already be obsolete. Second, you want to choose the owners, starting with the CEO and building with the business. Third, you want to make it stick. Make sure that relevant stakeholders are experimenting with the tools. Set kill metrics in advance before starting a pilot and work with the CFO on the unit economic scalability of your projects.
尽管人人都可以获取工具，模型向我们所有人开放，但**吸收这些模型的能力**才是竞争的差异化所在。那些能够做到这一点、并随着模型持续迭代进化而真正加以利用的企业，将会繁荣发展。 过去，需要 15 分钟才能找到一个答案；现在，找到答案只需不到一分钟。 谢谢大家。
Original English While the tools are available to everybody, models are available to all of us, the ability to absorb these models is a competitive differentiator, and the businesses that are able to do that and truly take advantage of the models as they continue getting better and better, are going to thrive. So, before it took 15 minutes to find one answer, now it takes less than a minute to find the answer. Thank you. >> [applause]