--- author: Norges Bank Investment Management date: '2026-10-28' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8nHLUlRGkg speaker: Norges Bank Investment Management tags: - investment-philosophy - permanent-capital - concentrated-portfolio - activist-investing - critical-thinking title: 比尔·阿克曼访谈：永久资本、集中投资与寻找反方论点 summary: 潘兴广场创始人比尔·阿克曼与挪威主权财富基金CEO尼古拉·坦根展开对话。阿克曼阐述了其集中投资哲学与类似特许权使用费的优质商业模式，探讨了永久资本对抵御市场短期波动的关键竞争优势，并回顾了与卡尔·伊坎的诉讼恩怨、向主动投资的演变、家庭变故引发的脑机接口研究，以及通过倾听最强反对意见来确立投资信心的思考框架。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: investment-assets area: finance-wealth project: [] people: - Bill Ackman - Nicolai Tangen companies_orgs: - Pershing Square Capital Management - Norges Bank Investment Management products_models: [] media_books: - A Theory of Justice status: evergreen --- ### 寻找反方论点确立投资信心 对一项投资想法建立信心的最佳方法是什么？找出针对你所持资产最优秀的做空者，听听他们的论点。如果你能反驳他们的每一个论点，那么你对自己的投资就会更有信心。
Original English What's the best way to get conviction in an investment idea? Find the best short seller in something that you own and and hear [music] their arguments. If you can rebut each of their arguments, then you can feel more confident in your investment.
>> 对你的其他观点也应该是一样的。去找到那个能为你为什么是错的提出最有说服力理由的人。我们获得真相的最大希望，就是倾听各方意见，然后甄别谁的论点更有力。
Original English >> And the same thing is should be true for your other views. Find the person who makes [music] the best case for why you're wrong. The best hope we have to get to the truth is hearing from all sides and then sorting through who's got the better argument.
大家好，我是挪威主权财富基金的首席执行官尼古拉·坦根（Nicolola Tangan）。今天我身处极好的陪伴中。我和潘兴广场（Pershing Square）的创始人比尔·阿克曼（Bill Akman）一起在纽约。比尔是世界上最著名的投资者之一，他的做法非常独特，因为大多数基金持有数百家公司，而你持有的却非常少。复合增长非常强劲，达到约16%，而且你已经做了很长时间。所以，非常高兴你能来。
Original English Hi everyone, I'm Nicolola Tangan, the CEO of the Norwegian Southern Wealth Fund and today I'm in really good company. I'm in New York with Bill Akman, the founder of Persing Square. Bill is one of the best known investors in the world and he does it in a very unusual way because most funds own hundreds of companies, but you own uh very few. compounding very strong at um 16% and you've been doing it for a long time. So, uh great to have you here.
>> 感谢邀请我。
Original English >> Thanks for having me.
### 何谓伟大企业与商业模式结构 >> 什么是好公司？
Original English >> What's a good company?
>> 好公司还是伟大的公司？
Original English >> Good or great?
>> 伟大的公司。
Original English >> Great.
>> 伟大的公司是指这样一种企业：你今天买下它，即便市场关闭20年，你心里极度确定，在10年或20年后，你拥有的东西依然具有巨大价值。
Original English >> Uh a great company is a business you could buy today. The markets could shut for 20 years and you know with a enormous degree of certainty that you'll own something that's enormously valuable 10 or 20 years from now.
>> 这些伟大的公司分布在什么样的行业？ 你知道，我认为这与其说是特定行业的问题，不如说是企业结构的问题。
Original English >> And what kind of industries are they in these great companies? You know, I think it's less industry specific than um the structure of the business.
>> 它们是了不起的企业，分布在许多不同的领域。
Original English >> They're amazing businesses and in many different sectors.
>> 那么它需要什么样的结构呢？
Original English >> And so what kind of structure does it need?
>> 我们喜欢那些看起来像收取特许权使用费的公司，类似于年金业务，你可以非常确信这种年金将在很长一段时间内以很高的速度增长，而且企业产生的现金不需要重新投入到企业中去。实际上，潘兴广场本身，我甚至可以向你推介一下。[笑声]
Original English >> We love businesses that look like royalty collecting companies like annuities where you can be very confident that the annuity will grow at a high rate over a very long period of time and the cash that's generated from the business doesn't need to be reinvested in the business. Actually, Persian Square, I can I'll give you the pitch. [laughter]
>> 我们稍后会谈谈那个。你认为世界上有这种公司多少家？
Original English >> We'll talk about that. We'll talk about that a bit later. Um, how many of those companies are there in the world, you think?
>> 答案是大型的并不多。所以从潘兴广场的角度来看，我们配置的资金虽然不如你们配置的规模，但也开出了相当大的支票。这就是为什么我们集中投资，原因之一是数量有限。实际上可能总共有两三百家真正伟大的企业。
Original English >> The answer is there aren't a large number of big ones. So, in the from the perspective of Persian Square, we're allocating not the kind of capital you allocate, but you know, writing pretty big checks. Um, that's why we're concentrating because one, there's a limited number. there probably actually a couple hundred
>> 到300家真正伟大的企业。
Original English >> to 300 really great businesses
>> 但一家真正伟大的企业能以使其成为绝佳投资的价格买到，这种情况并不常见，所以这就是我们集中投资的原因。
Original English >> but it's not so often that a really great business becomes available at a price that makes it a great investment and so that's why we're concentrated
>> 你是如何获得这些投资想法的？你在哪里找到这些标的？
Original English >> how do you come up with the ideas where do you find these things
>> 你知道，我们就是热爱投资，喜欢了解企业。我们读报纸，可以这么说。但我们其实建立了一个我们所钦佩的公司的库。
Original English >> uh you know just you know we love investing we love learning about businesses um we read the newspaper uh so to speak um but we we've sort of built a library of companies we admire
>> 拥有良好经济特征、高增长率、由优秀管理团队管理的企业，它们很少会以能够提供我们所寻求的那种回报的价格出现。
Original English >> uh and you know business that has great economic characteristic high rates of growth managed by good management teams, they don't often become available at prices that offer the kind of returns we're looking for.
### 长期视角与资本结构的稀缺性 >> 为什么没有更多人像你这样做呢？因为我觉得这很有意思，克里斯·霍恩（Chris Hohn）有同样的理念，沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也是，还有你，你们都在谈论自己是如何做到的，然而很少有人能够做到。
Original English >> Why don't more people do like like you do? Because I think it's just interesting, you know, Chris Horn has the same philosophy, Warren [clears throat] Buffett and you and you talk about how you do it and yet very few people manage it.
>> 其中一部分是结构性原因。许多投资者想要快速致富。
Original English >> So part of it is structural and the uh well many investors want to get rich quick.
>> 是的。
Original English >> Yeah.
>> 而这并不是一种快速致富的策略。你必须具备一种更长远的眼光。而且我认为资产管理行业中的大部分资本在本质上都是短期的，可以随时按分钟、按天、按季度或按年度被赎回。
Original English >> And this is not sort of a get-richqu strategy. You have to have kind of a a longer term view. And then I I think most of the capital in the asset management industry is inherently short-term available for redemption on a minute-by-minut day by day or you know quarterly or annual basis.
>> 如果你的投资者将以非常短期的基准来评判你，或者你的雇主也是如此，你就很难长远思考。比如像城堡投资（Citadel）、千禧年（Millennium）这些机构，他们非常注重短期，使用高度的财务杠杆。在这样的策略中，你无法承受高度的波动性。而沃伦·巴菲特拥有永久资本。克里斯·霍恩在这个行业干了很长时间，他培养了一批给予他长期支持的投资者。你需要这种支持才能实施这一策略，而那种资本是非常稀缺的。
Original English >> It's hard to think long term if your investors can are going to be judging you on a very short-term basis or the person you work for. You know, think the the Citadels, the Millenniums, firms where very short-term oriented use a high degree of financial leverage. You can't absorb a high degree of volatility in a strategy like that. Whereas you you need the Warren Buffett's had permanent capital. Chris Han has been in the business for a long period of time. He's cultivated investors that have given him kind of long-term backing. You need that in order to implement the strategy and that kind of capital is very scarce.
### 信息获取、社交媒体与生活关注 >> 再跟我多讲讲你的信息来源。你读些什么？ 就我个人而言，我读《华尔街日报》、《金融时报》、《经济学人》，偶尔在能忍受的时候读读《纽约时报》。[哼笑] 不过不是，那是一份好报纸。但所有媒体都有偏见。实际上我花相当多的时间在X上。它可能是我最重要的信息来源，因为你可以关注对同一话题持有截然不同观点的人，我认为这是通向真相的一个极好途径。它越来越成为我获取媒体内容的重要来源。
Original English >> Tell me a bit more where you where you get your information from. What do you what do you read? So, personally, I read uh Wall Street Journal, FT, Economist, occasionally the New York Times when I can stomach it. But, [snorts] um, no, it's a good good newspaper. I But you have to uh it's it's all all media have biases. I spend a fair amount of time on X actually. It's probably my most important source of of information because you can follow people who have very much diverging views on the same topic and I think it's a very good way to get to the truth. It's become increasingly a big source of of where I get my media.
>> 你关注谁？
Original English >> Who do you follow?
>> 随着时间推移，我大概关注了一千人。这取决于主题。我有许多不同的兴趣。而且有趣的是，我们公司的一些最佳投资、我个人的最佳想法，往往正是来自特定的个人热情。比如健康作为一个重要的兴趣爱好，让我在一月份看到了COVID的苗头，开始担忧疫情大流行。[哼笑]
Original English >> I follow probably a thousand people. Over time. It depends on the topic. I've got lots of different interests. And you know, interestingly, some of my the firm's best investments my personal best ideas have just come from particular passions. You know, health being an important passion led me to an insight about, you know, co I started seeing CO emerge in January. concerned about a pandemic [snorts]
>> 哇。
Original English >> Oh wow.
>> 我的兴趣并不是出于投资角度，但它促成了一个有趣的投资机会。
Original English >> and my interest was not driven by an investment perspective but it led to an interesting
>> 投资机会。现在一场家庭悲剧促使我花很多时间去了解人工智能和脑机接口方面的进展，这可能会带来一些有趣的投资机会。
Original English >> investment opportunity. You now a a family tragedy is you know causing me to spend a lot of time learning about what's going on AI and bringing computer interfaces and you know it may lead to some interesting investment opportunities. So it's it's uh
>> 一旦我们发现有趣的东西，尽职调查通常相当传统，即查看公开申报文件，然后通过专家网络与行业人士交流。
Original English >> you know you know once we find something that's interesting due diligence is driven by you know fairly conventional looking at public filings and then talking to you know using expert networks to talk to people.
>> 我们稍后会回到你提到的家庭悲剧。你在X上花多少时间？
Original English >> We'll come back to your your your tragedy. Um how much time do you spend on X?
>> 我妻子可能会说太多了。
Original English >> Uh my wife might say too much.
>> 大概是多少呢？
Original English >> What what is that? I
>> 我没有算过。
Original English >> I don't I don't calculate it.
>> 但你觉得呢？一天一个小时，还是更多？
Original English >> But what do you think? What do you think? an hour a day or more or
>> 我会说通常是在早晨和晚上，在工作时间内不会看。但这取决于我生活中发生的其他事情。不过有趣的是，相比依赖传统媒体的人，在X上的人通常会觉得比别人领先一到两周，比如某条新闻刚报道出来，而你在两周前就已经知晓了。
Original English >> I would say it's usually in the morning and the evening and not during the the business day but it depends on what else is going on in my life but I can spend uh it's a it's actually an interesting thing is people who are on X versus people who rely on conventional media you generally feel like you're a week to two weeks ahead like news comes out and you you learned it a week ago
>> 所以它非常是一个实时的信息源。
Original English >> so it's it's very much a real-time source of information
### 餐饮业投资与投资准则清单 >> 你在餐饮行业赚了很多钱。
Original English >> you made a lot of money in restaurants.
>> 嗯。
Original English >> Mhm.
>> 为什么它们是好的投资？
Original English >> Why have they been good investments?
>> 简单、可预测、能产生自由现金流的业务。我们在很大程度上专注于特许经营模式。这同样是收取特许权使用费的公司。而且我认为随着时间推移，你会在一个领域建立专业知识。
Original English >> Simple, predictable, free cash flow generative businesses. Uh we've kind of focused on for the most part kind of the franchise business model. Again, royalty collecting companies. Um but it's I I think a you know over time you build a domain expertise in in an area. It's
>> 只是我女儿开了一家鸡尾酒吧，那可不是一门轻松的生意，对吧？
Original English >> just that my my daughter runs a cocktail bar and it's not a it's not an easy business, huh?
>> 确实不容易。确实不容易。但还是那句话，与其说是行业问题，不如说是业务结构问题。比如麦当劳是一家了不起的企业，但人们历史上一直把它看作餐饮业，从核心上来说确实是，但它同时也是一家房地产业务和特许经营运营网络。
Original English >> It's not. It's not. But again, it's it's less the sector than the structure. M you know McDonald's is an amazing business but it's really people think of it as a historically thought of it as a as a restaurant business and in its core it is but it's also a real estate business and it's a franchising operation.
>> 你有多依赖模式识别或者你的直觉，即你曾见过类似事情发生的经历？
Original English >> How much do you uh do you depend on your um your pattern recognition or your your gut feel the fact that you've seen these things play out before?
>> 我不知道。我认为经历过许多时期的市场事件是非常宝贵的。但对我们来说更重要的实际上是，你看到那边的小石板吗？我们把核心投资原则整理成了相当于一份清单的东西。我们有一个框架，我想说正是这个框架帮助我们观察世界，并在每隔一段时间促成一个有趣的投资机会浮现。我们现在来看看这个东西，稍后会放大细看，但上面最重要的是什么？
Original English >> I don't know. I think it's very valuable to have experienced uh lots of market events over time. Um you know we've kind I think it's but importantly for us actually you see that little tablet over there. We we took our kind of core investment principles and we created what amounts to a checklist. We have a framework and so I think that's I would say that framework helps us see the world in a way which every once in a while surfaces an interesting investment opportunity. So we'll uh now look at this uh thing here uh and we'll zoom in on it afterwards but uh just what are the what are the most important things there
>> 第一，这是一家我们能够以极高信心进行预测的企业。
Original English >> one it's a business we can predict with a very high degree of confidence
>> 对，一项金融资产的价值，就是它在其生命周期内将产生的现金流的折现值。如果你无法为一个企业合理可预期的未来10年、15年、20年建立模型，我认为你就无法得出它的价值。许多资金的管理是建立在人们相信某只股票会因为新信息的披露而上涨或下跌，但这本质上是短期的，比如公司是否会达到、超出或不及财报预期。大量的资金以此为依据而流动，或者基于对会导致股价特定波动的事件或新闻的预期。
Original English >> right the value of a financial asset it's the present value the cash will generate over its life if you can't build a model of the next you know reasonable period of time of a business 10 15 20 years you I don't think you can come up with a value for it you know a lot of money is managed based on people believing a stock will go up or down based on a new piece of information coming out, but it's inherently a short-term, you know, is the company going to meet, exceed, or miss earnings. A huge amount of money is moved on that basis or an expectation of an event or news event that will cause a stock to move in a certain way.
>> 我们基本上忽略了这些，对吧？我们所做的是建立一家公司长期的财务模型。因此，企业本质上必须是可预测的。有许多企业我们根本不知道它们值多少钱，我们干脆看都不看，或者一旦得出结论认为无法确切预测其未来，我们就不碰。因此我认为可预测性非常重要。显然，为了长期拥有可预测的现金流和收入，企业必须具备众所周知的护城河。所以企业质量和持久性我认为是至关重要的。我们希望企业不受无法控制的外部因素影响，所以我们基本上不投资对大宗商品敏感、对利率敏感或对监管敏感的企业。
Original English >> We kind of ignore that, right? What we're doing is we're building a financial model of a company over a long period of time. So, the business has to be inherently there many businesses that we have no idea what they're worth. we just don't even look at them or we once we conclude they're not we can't predict their certainty. So I think predictability uh is important and obviously to have predictable cash flows and revenues over time the business has to have the proverbial mode around it you know so business quality durability I would say you know critically important um we want companies that are not exposed to you know we call extrinsic factors we can't control so we we don't really invest in commodity sensitive businesses interest rate sensitive businesses regulatory sensitive businesses
>> 所以我们保持简单。
Original English >> so it's it's about it's we we keep it simple
>> 至少你的原则是刻在石板上的。对吧？
Original English >> well at least your principles are set in stone Right.
>> 没错。本意确实是这样。我当时让团队人员做成石头的，结果拿回来的是一块厚塑料。
Original English >> Exactly. That was intended to be. I told uh the guy that team to make it stone. We came back with a heavy plastic.
### 投研团队运作机制与决策流程 >> 你们如何利用分析师？
Original English >> How do you use the analysts?
>> 你知道……
Original English >> So, you know,
>> 你们一共不到50人。
Original English >> you you you're like just under 50 people.
>> 我想说我们公司的结构和克里斯·霍恩不同。
Original English >> I would say our firm is structured differently from Chris Han.
>> 是的。我们一共有48人，其中9名投资专业人员。我们不是我和一群分析师的模式，而实际上是一个投资团队。瑞安·以色列（Ryan Israel）四年前成为了我们的首席投资官（CIO）。对冲基金的典型结构是由投资组合经理（通常也就是我这个位置）负责在研究不同领域的分析师团队之间分配资本，由最佳的想法胜出，并且大家根据个人的盈亏（P&L）获得薪酬。我们不是这种架构。我们只有一个包含12到14个投资标的的组合，没有任何人是根据个人的盈亏获得报酬的。所有人最终都是根据整个投资组合的表现来获得报酬。因此，每个人的利益都不是为了争夺向自己分配资本，而是确保公司和我们投资者的资本以最合理的方式进行分配。
Original English >> Yeah. We're 48 people. We're nine investment professionals. And it's not me and a team of analysts. It's actually an investment team. Um you know, I uh Ryan Israel became our CIO, you know, four years ago. But a typical structure of a hedge fund is you have a portfolio manager. I guess that's normally my position who's responsible for allocating capital among a team of analysts who are working on kind of different areas. Uh and the best ideas win and people are compensated based on individual P&Ls. We're not structured that way. One portfolio of 12 14 uh investments um no one is compensated based on individual uh P&Ls. Everyone's compensated ultimately based on how the overall portfolio does. So everyone has their interest is not getting capital allocated to them. Uh their interest is making sure the our firm's capital is allocated in the and our investors capital is allocated in the way that makes the most sense. Uh so
>> 那么具体是怎么运作的呢？你们就坐在这张桌子周围吗？
Original English >> so how does it work? So you sit around this table here.
>> 这不是。我们有一个投资团队会议室，比这里小，大概只有这里的一半大。
Original English >> Uh this is uh not we have an investment team room which is smaller than this about half the size.
>> 好的。那么你们每周开会还是怎么安排？
Original English >> Okay. So there you are. You you meet every week or how
>> 团队每周有一次正式会议，但整个团队几乎每天都在一起吃午饭。所以团队内部的互动非常频繁。通常会有人发现一个有趣的想法。可能是我，可能是瑞安，也可能是团队中的某位成员。比如：“嘿，某某股票，一家我们跟踪多年的公司，因为财报未达预期现在打六折了。让我们更新一下档案吧。”于是我们调出档案。对这个标的做过最多研究的团队会再次深入研究并更新工作。通常是一个两人小组。瑞安或我（或者我们俩）会通过做一定量的工作来对那个团队进行有效监督。因此我会阅读年报、委托书、电话会议记录，也许还有一些新闻报道；而做更深入研究的团队会与许多行业专家交流，做深入调研。
Original English >> the team has a formal meeting every week but we have lunch together almost every day the full team. Uh so very high degree of interaction in the team. Typically uh someone identifies an interesting idea. It could be me, it could be Ryan, could be a member of the team. Hey, you know, XYZ stock, a company we followed for years is now available at 40% discount because they missed earnings. Let's update the file. So we pull out the file. The team that has uh done the most work on the name. We'll dig in again, update their work. Typically a twoerson team. Ryan or I Ryan and or I will will will will effectively oversee uh that team by doing some amount of work. So I'll read the annual reports the you know the the proxy the the uh conference call transcripts maybe some news articles the team doing the deeper dive will speak to you know many industry experts will do a a kind of deep dive and then
>> 整个团队会在同一时间共同研究一个投资想法吗？
Original English >> will the whole team work on one idea at the time?
>> 两个人会专注于一个想法并深入研究。两个人会做一些研究，那就是瑞安和我。然后团队的其他成员对这个标的完全没做过研究，之后整个群体会形成一个观点。负责主要研究的团队会制作一份PowerPoint演示文稿，向全团队展示他们为什么认为该项投资很有吸引力，接着我们共同作出决定。
Original English >> Two people will work on one idea uh and go deep. two people will do have done some work that's you know Ryan and Ry and then the rest of the team will have done no work on the name and then that whole group will form a view as to whether and the team who leads the uh work will build a PowerPoint presentation and present to the team you know why they think an investment is is interesting and then we'll make a collective decision
>> 但实际上一个重要的动态是……
Original English >> but actually important dynamic is
>> 典型的对冲基金结构是，你唯一的动力就是让资金分配到你手里……
Original English >> um you know the typical hedge fund is structured in such a way your only incentive is to get capital allocated to you
>> 这往往会促使你倾向于希望某个想法进入投资组合。而在我们的模式中，有两个人深入透彻地做了研究，两个人做了一部分研究，还有一组人在时间投入上完全没有任何既得利益。
Original English >> which sort of causes you to kind lean in to wanting an idea to be in the portfolio. In our case, we'll have two people who have done the work uh in a very profound way. Uh two people who have done some of the work and a group that has has has nothing invested in terms of
>> 达成共识。
Original English >> time consensus.
>> 如果有人提出异议或担忧，我们会做进一步的尽职调查来解决该异议。最终由我拥有最终决定权，但在过去十年里，我想不出有哪笔投资是我们没有达成集体共识的。
Original English >> Uh we we if there is an objection or someone raises a concern, we do more due diligence to address the objection. Ultimately I have the final say but I I can't think of an investment in the last decade that we didn't have uh really a collective view on.
### 布鲁克菲尔德案例与战胜市场的优势 >> 举个例子，比如你持有布鲁克菲尔德（Brookfield）。
Original English >> So let's take an example like you own Brookfield.
>> 是的。
Original English >> Yes.
>> 它是怎么运作的？从你们开始关注到最终进行投资用了多长时间？
Original English >> How does that work? How long time does it take from when you start to look at it until you make the investment?
>> 我们结识布鲁斯·弗拉特（Bruce Flatt）和布鲁克菲尔德高管团队是在合作处理一桩交易时。
Original English >> So we got to know I got to know Bruce Flatt and the senior Brookfield team working on a transaction.
>> 顺便说明一下，布鲁克菲尔德是加拿大的私募股权集团。
Original English >> So FYI Brookfield is the uh private equity Canadian group.
>> 是的。我是在通用商业地产（General Growth）破产案中结识布鲁斯·弗拉特的，当时我们最终与他们合作对那家公司进行了重组。我们非常深入地了解了该团队，对布鲁斯、赛勒斯（Cyrus）以及该团队中至今仍在掌管该公司的其他成员产生了极大的敬意。但当时我们从未投资过布鲁克菲尔德。后来这家公司随着时间推移进行了重组，变成了一家更偏轻资产、类似收取特许权使用费的企业，随后我们在多年前启动了尽职调查程序。布鲁克菲尔德实际上是一家相当复杂的公司，这也是它估值具有吸引力的原因之一。他们随着时间推移一直在简化业务。但导致那笔投资的尽职调查过程大概持续了数月之久。
Original English >> Yes. So uh that I met Bruce Flatt in connection with uh the bankruptcy of general growth where they were uh we ended up partnering with them and doing a restructuring with that company. Got to know the team really well. Had enormous respect for uh you know came to have enormous respect for Bruce and Cyrus and other members of that team that today still uh run that company. But we never invested in Brookfield. Um then we you know the company over time restructured and became a bit more of an asset light royalty collecting business and then we began a due diligence process a number of years ago. Um and uh it was probably Brookfield's actually quite a complicated company. That's one of the reasons why it's uh attractively valued. They've been simplifying the business over time. But it was probably a several month due diligence process that led to that investment.
>> 现在战胜市场比你刚入行时更难了吗？ 我不这么认为。我们并不试图每个月、每个季度甚至每年都战胜市场。但我认为管理一个集中的资本池并拥有采取更长远视角的能力，从长期战胜市场来看，能赋予你巨大的竞争优势。但指数这个竞争对手确实非常出色。
Original English >> Is it more difficult to beat the market now than it was when you started? I don't think so. I I would say we don't try to beat the market every month or even every quarter or every year. Um but I think managing a concentrated pool of capital and having the ability to have a longerterm view I think gives you a big competitive advantage in terms of beating the market over the long term. But it's a the market's been an amazing competitor if you will the index.
### 人工智能的影响与投资布局 >> 是的。现在人工智能正在对市场产生什么影响？ 我认为它正让市场参与者的期限变得越来越短。 你知道，一份10-K年报刚发布，AI就能瞬间读完。有大量资本投入到寻找短期的微弱优势中，而我认为AI强化了这一点。
Original English >> Yeah. Uh now what is AI doing to the market? I think it's making market participants increasingly shorter and shorter term. You know, you can a 10K gets published and AI can read it instantly. Uh there's a huge amount of capital invested in looking for a short-term short-term edge and AI I think enables that.
>> 你所拥有的与AI相关的投资类型包括AWS，还有别的吗？ Meta是AI领域的大投资方。我认为如今每家企业要么与AI相关，要么应该与之相关，要么将受到AI的颠覆。因此我认为这是必须进行的评估。 我们在特朗普宣布“解放关税”后买入了亚马逊。我们在Meta承诺大规模资本支出令市场失望后买入了Meta。微软也是如此。当一家公司公开站出来说“我们对服务的需求巨大，因此必须投入远超预期的资本支出以努力满足产品需求”，然后股价却下跌了，这是一个很有意思的环境。 这促成了对微软的投资。如今这些名字大概占据了我们投资组合的三分之一左右。
Original English >> The type of investments you have which are AI related would be I mean you got AWS anything else? U so you know Meta is a big investor in uh well I would say every business today is either AI related or should be or is going to be disrupted by by AI. So I think that's the assessment that you have to do. You know we own uh we purchased Amazon after Trump announced liberation tariffs. We acquired Meta after they disappointed people by committing a large amount of money to uh capex. And the same with with Microsoft. You know, it's sort of an interesting environment when you have a company come out publicly and say, "We have enormous demand for our service. Therefore, we have to invest uh well in excess of what we expected in capex just to try to meet the demand from our product." And then stock price goes down. Um and that's what led to an investment in Microsoft. But it's probably those names represent about a third of our portfolio today.
>> 人工智能将对世界产生什么影响？ 它将让几乎每个人都能以非常低的成本获取非常高的智能。因此，如果你把智力视为世界上的竞争优势（你通常会认为是），而这种智力变成了一种大宗商品，那么思考其影响会非常有趣。我的观点是，当所有人都能获得低成本的超级智能时，剩下的是创造力。大语言模型能做的是阅读它们之前能读到的一切，并对此拥有极高渊博的知识。但我目前还不清楚AI是否能具备创造力。比如爱因斯坦提出E=MC²或相对论的灵光乍现时刻，我不认为在爱因斯坦之前AI读过的任何东西能让它推导出那个公式。因此我认为留给人类的空间是创造力。但我确实认为这可能带来丰裕，我认为创业活动将会爆发，而且整体GDP或全球增长也可能会出现爆发式提升。
Original English >> What is AI going to do to the world? uh it's going to give almost everyone uh access to very lowcost uh very high intelligence. Um so it's if you think about you know if intelligence is a a competitive advantage in the world and you would think that it is and that intelligence becomes a commodity uh it's sort of a it's a very interesting u um it's interesting to think about what the implications are. I sort of make the argument that what's left when everyone has access to lowcost super intelligence is sort of creativity, right? The what what LLMs can do if they can read everything they can before and and be incredibly knowledgeable about that. But I not clear to me that AI can be creative yet, right? Einstein's uh light bulb moments E= MC² or theory of relativity. I don't think that anything that came before Einstein uh that that AI would have read would have come out with that formula if you will. And so I think the space that's left for human beings is is but I do think it could lead to uh abundance um as uh [snorts] I think there's going to be explosion of entrepreneurship uh and um I think there can be explosion in overall GDP or global growth.
### 从激进对抗到声誉合作的演变 如今你作为激进投资者而闻名。买入股份并强迫他们做出改变。但你并不是一直都这么做。
Original English Now you are known as an activist investor. You know, buy stakes and force them to to change. But you don't do that all the time.
>> 我曾经因此闻名。[笑声]
Original English >> I used I used to be known. [laughter]
>> 当然。那告诉我，你当年为什么是个激进投资者，而现在为什么不那么激进了？
Original English >> Sure. So tell me what what were you an activist investor then and why are you not so active now?
>> 我认为我们现在依然非常积极。不同之处在于我们不需要破门而入了，对吧？
Original English >> Oh, we're I think we're very active now. The difference is we don't have to break down the door to get into the room, >> right?
>> 这是因为你年纪变大了、人变好了，还是……
Original English >> Uh you know when we Is that because you are older and nicer or
>> 我认为发生了几件事。第一，早期的激进投资并没有被认真对待，你必须字面意义上去破门而入。随着激进投资作为一种策略变得更加成功，随着我们积累了自己的声誉资本，随着我认识了美国的每一位CEO，人们意识到：这些人实际上是在考虑公司所有者、企业投资者和员工的长期利益；他们在董事会中表现良好，能带来显著价值；我们为什么不直接与他们合作，对他们的想法保持开放态度，而不是非要搞代理权争夺战呢？我们发起的最后一笔激进投资是在2016年，也就是十年前，现在正好是那笔投资的十周年。今天我们入股一家企业，通常会收到CEO感谢我们入股的感谢信，这与我们多年前收到的信息大相径庭，当年我们可能连回电都收不到。这使我们能够成为有建设性的投资者。 在市场动态方面发生的另一件事是，过去一家真正高质量的公司如果出现业绩不及预期，股价可能只会下跌3%到4%。而今天，一旦业绩落空，股价可能会暴跌30%到40%。我认为这是由于指数化程度加深减少了流通盘，以及进入市场的杠杆化短期资金增加导致了更大的波动性。这导致的结果是，让那些偶尔出现的极佳、高成长、持久的公司，因为短期的业绩不及预期而在一段时间内以折价价格出现。 因此，我们今天的投资组合中充满了我们对管理者怀有极高敬意的企业。他们不需要太多激进干预。我们很乐意做一个偶尔提供想法的安静股东。
Original English >> I think a couple things have happened. One, activism in the early days was not something taken very seriously and you had to literally break down the door. As activism became more successful as a strategy, as we built our own reputational equity, as I got to know every CEO in America, people realized, you know what, these guys are actually thinking about the long-term interests of the owners of the company, investors in the business, the employees. You know what, let they they behave themselves on boards of directors. They can add significant value. why don't we just work with them uh and be open to their uh ideas as opposed to having to run proxy contest and I think so our last activist investment we launched in 2016 a decade ago it's actually about the 10th anniversary of that of that investment and today we buy a stake in the business and we generally get a thank you note from the CEO for for for taking a stake which is a very different message that we got you know years ago we might not even gotten a return phone call and that enables us to be you know a helpful uh investor. The other thing I think that's happened in terms of market dynamics, it used to be that a really high quality business that somehow disappointed the stock might drop three or 4%. Today the stock could drop 30 or 40% on a miss. And I think that's driven by the [snorts] increasing kind of indexation which is reducing float and the increasing amount of leveraged capital short-term capital invested in markets that is creating a lot more volatility. And what that has done is it's made the occasional amazing high growth durable company uh available at a discounted price for a period of time based on a short-term disappointment. So we you our portfolio today is filled with businesses where we have enormous respect for the people running them. They don't need much in the way of an activist. We're happy to be a you know a quiet owner that occasionally has an idea.
>> 你觉得这是否也与你个人的变化有关？比如年龄增长、融入体制，或是变得友善、变得富有，我不知道。
Original English Do you think it's something that happened with you as well in one age or becoming part of the establishment or just somehow becoming a nice person or wealthy or I don't know. I
>> 我一直都是个善良随和的人。媒体可能会把我描绘成另一副模样。但是，你看，我和管理许多企业的这代人同龄。我直接或间接认识美国的每一位CEO。因此很容易了解我们作为所有者、作为股东是什么样的风格。再说一次，我们在过去十年里没有做过激进投资。
Original English >> I I'm I've always been a nice person. Uh you know, the media may have portrayed me as as as otherwise. Um but you know, look, I'm I'm the generation of people that are running many uh sort of businesses. I know this every CEO in America either directly or one person removed. Um and so you know it's it's pretty easy to get a read on what we're like as owners as shareholders and and again we haven't made an activist investment in 10 years. So
### 激进主义历史与卡尔·伊坎的冲突 >> 你如何评价其他激进投资者？ 我认为这对市场非常健康。被动所有权和日益指数化的风险在于，如果没有股东督促管理层负责，就会产生问题。回顾激进投资的历史，J.P.摩根、卡内基，他们当年虽然不是激进投资者，但他们是美国钢铁和铁路的大股东，他们关心企业的运营情况。随着卡内基去世将所有资产捐出成为慈善家，富达（Fidelity）、先锋（Vanguard）和指数化崛起，控股型公司逐渐分散化。欧洲仍然由许多受控股的企业组成，但除了一些科技初创公司外，受控股企业越来越少了。这导致了70年代和80年代初严重的业绩不佳时期。 实际上是迈克尔·米尔肯（Mike Milken）让卡尔·伊坎（Carl Icahn）和纳尔逊·佩尔茨（Nelson Peltz）等企业家有能力参与角逐企业。后来马蒂·利普顿（Marty Lipton）发明了毒丸计划，制止了绿票勒索（greenmail）活动，绿票勒索也变得非法。毒丸计划瓦解了在董事会无法谈判的情况下将公司私有化的能力，随后我们经历了一段严重的表现不佳时期，直到激进投资在过去的20到25年里逐渐兴起。
Original English >> how do you assess yield or activist investors? uh you know it depends I first of all I think it's very very healthy for markets right the the risk of increasing indexation and passive ownership is it can it can lead to you know without shareholders holding management to account um you know if you look at the history of activism you know the you know JP Morgan Carnegie right these were not activists but they were major shareholders of US Steel and and and railroads back then and they cared about how the businesses were run as Carnegie you when he passed away became he was a philanthropist gave away sort of all of his [snorts] assets the rise of uh you know fidelity investments vanguard uh indexation there was this uh dissemination [snorts] of controlled companies you know Europe is still comprised of many controlled businesses there are fewer and fewer other than you know sort of technology startups of the last whatever period [snorts] and it led to a period of meaningful underperformance in the 70s and the early 80s and it was actually Mike Milin that enabled not quite activists but a group of entrepreneurs like Carl Icon and Nelson Peltz the ability to actually uh you know put companies in play. Um, and you had Marty Lipton invent the poison pill that stopped green mail activity and other green mail sort of became illegal. And then these ability to uh take companies private without the board having the ability to negotiate was u sort of disintermediated by the poison pill [snorts] and and then we had a period of meaningful underperformance um until I would say activism became more of a thing over the last 20 25 years.
>> 你和卡尔·伊坎有过一些交锋。
Original English >> You had a bit of a runin with K I
>> 是的，确实有过。[笑声]
Original English >> did. I did. Yes.
>> 告诉我吧，我很喜欢这段故事。
Original English >> Tell me I love [laughter] it.
>> 我在1998年和卡尔·伊坎做过一笔交易，那是一笔非常小的交易。我把一家名为霍尔伍德不动产合伙（Hallwood Realty Partners）公司的股份卖给他，价格比交易价格有很大溢价，但相比其真实价值有很大折价。作为交易的一部分，他给了我他所谓的“蠢货保险”（schmuck insurance），约定如果在接下来的3年内他以溢价出售或转让该股份，我将获得他超过10%回报部分利润的50%。他曾竞购该公司但没有成功，别人买下了那家公司，他在两年内出售了股份，欠我们大约450万美元，但他拒绝付款。所以我不得不告他。
Original English >> So I I did a transaction with Carl Icon. Uh this was in 1998 and it was a very small deal. Uh and I sold him an interest in a company called Hallward Realy Partners at a big premium to where it was trading but at a big discount to what it was worth. And he as part of the transaction he gave me what he called schmuck insurance which said that if he sold the stake or transferred it anytime in the next 3 years at at a premium I would get 50% of his uh profit uh over a I think a 10% return. And he made a bid for the company but he didn't win. Someone else bought the company and he sold within two years and he owed us like $4.5 million and he refused to pay. So I had to sue him.
>> 所以你有点生气了？
Original English >> So you got a bit angry?
>> 我没有生气。我只是知道卡尔向来以这种风格闻名。这就是为什么我拟定了一份非常简单的协议，一份八页的文件。我放进了一个数学公式，并且对出售或以其他方式转让进行了描述，给出了非常完备的定义。但他就是喜欢战斗。
Original English >> I didn't get angry. I just, you know, this Carl was known for this. So that's why I had a very simple agreement. It was an eight-page document. I put in a little mathematical formula and I I described sale or otherwise transfer. I give a very complete definition, but he you know he likes uh he likes the battle. He likes the battle.
>> 康宝莱（Herbalife）。
Original English >> Herbal life.
>> 是的。后来引发了康宝莱事件。基本情况是我们赢了那场官司。按卡尔的行事方式，我们起诉他，我们胜诉了，然后可以在180天内提起上诉。他会等到第179天才上诉，接着我们应对上诉，之后他又再次上诉。他一直上诉到了最高法院。他把我们拖延了大约六七年。与此同时，我们依据协议条款赚取9%的利息，最终我们彻底赢了。他打电话给我说：“比尔，祝贺你。”我对伊坎先生说了几句相当强硬的话，他很不高兴我那样做。于是他潜伏伺机。后来我们做空了一家名为康宝莱的公司，卡尔在对该公司完全没做任何尽职调查的情况下，认定可以逼空我们，而他也确实非常有效地做到了。
Original English >> Yeah. Yes. That led to herbal life. So basically what happened was uh we won the case. Now the way Carl operates, we sued him. We won and then he wait you can appeal within 180 days. He would wait to day 179 and then appeal and then we went on appeal and then he would appeal again. He he appealed to the Supreme Court and again it was a relevant uh case but he delayed us for like I don't know six seven years. Meanwhile we were earning 9% interest because that was under the terms of the agreement and eventually we won and he called me says Bill congratulations and I said some fairly strong words back uh to Mr. icon and he didn't like that I did that and he sat in the weeds and then um we did short a company called Urbal Life and then Carl without doing any due diligence in the business basically figured he would squeeze us and he very effectively did.
>> 是的。
Original English >> Yeah.
>> 所以……
Original English >> So,
>> 你们损失了10亿。
Original English >> and you lost a billion.
>> 确实损失了。
Original English >> We did.
### 股东权利与创始人控制型公司 >> 你如何看待目前正在发生的股东权利下降的趋势？
Original English >> How do you how do you assess the um kind of the decline in shareholder rights that's happening just now?
>> 你是指像SpaceX准备上市这类公司，比如……
Original English >> Um you're referring to companies going SpaceX going public for example
>> 这类股东权利较少、投票权受限、任命董事会能力受限的情况。
Original English >> those kind of things with fewer rights to the shareholders uh voting rights ability to uh you know appoint boards these kind of things.
>> 回过头来看，我非常赞同创始人控制型公司在做出明智长期决策方面的能力。在市场日益短期化的情况下，如果公司不受控制，CEO们就会面临为了短期财报达标而采取行动的压力，从而可能削弱企业的长期价值。如果是沃伦·巴菲特、萨姆·沃尔顿（Sam Walton）或者埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）控制公司，我通常认为这是一件非常好的事情。但我不知道下一代会怎样。你不希望发生的事情是，埃隆·马斯克的儿子或女儿被赋予父母拥有的那种控制权。所以我赞成一股一票。我们通常不喜欢投资受控股公司，但如果控股股东是一位非凡的CEO，那么投资受控股公司我也可以接受。但我们强烈倾向于避免受控股公司，因为我认为股东偶尔能够表达意见所带来的约束力是很有价值的。
Original English >> I think the you know if you look back I'm a big believer in founder controlled companies in terms of their ability to make smart long-term decisions. I mean, the problem of a market that's become increasingly short-term. The company is not a controlled business. Um, you know, CEOs feel pressured to do things to make the numbers, [clears throat] if you will, in the short term that can be diminish the long-term value of the business. And what uh, you know, you've got if if Warren Buffett or Sam Walton or I would argue Elon Musk, you know, in control of the company, you know, I view that generally as a very good thing. Um, but I don't know about the next generation. what you don't want to happen uh is you know the next you know Elon Musk's I don't know whether his son or daughter you wouldn't want that person handed the control that the the parent has so I'm a I like one share one vote I uh we generally don't like to invest in controlled companies um but if the controlling shareholder is you know a a phenomenal CEO then I can be comfortable investing in a controlled business but uh our strong preference is to avoid controlled companies is because you know I do think the there's a certain uh the discipline that comes from a shareholder having the ability to you know to weigh in on occasion.
>> 什么是优秀的CEO？
Original English >> What makes a good CEO?
>> 我会说是激情、智慧、精力，以及良好的领导才能。人们愿意追随那个人走到最后。
Original English >> I would say uh passion, intelligence, energy, um you know an overall uh and you know good leadership qualities. People want to follow that person and uh to the end.
>> 在你投资时，你认为这是多重要的考量因素？
Original English >> And how do you assess how important part of the equation is it when you invest?
>> 对我们来说通常次要一些。商业质量、增长和持久性是最重要的因素。如果是错误的CEO，我们可以在招聘更好的人选方面发挥作用。当然，我们更喜欢伟大的企业配上卓越的CEO，但这在有吸引力的价格下很少发生。通常是因为管理层犯了一连串错误，才让一家伟大的企业落入具有吸引力的价格。
Original English >> It's less important to us generally. I would say the business quality, growth, durability are the most important factors. If it's the wrong CEO, we can play a role in in recruiting a better one. So, it's less important to us. Of course, we prefer a great business with a phenomenal CEO. Um, but that doesn't happen that often at an attractive price. Usually it's a great business that gets to an attractive price because management has made a series of mistakes.
### 巴菲特模式与霍华德休斯的保险重构 >> 你提到拥有长期资本的重要性，而现在你拥有了永久资本。跟我讲讲这个吧。
Original English >> Um you you mentioned the importance of having uh long-term capital and now you have uh permanent capital. Just tell me about tell [snorts] me about that.
>> 回头看，我是沃伦·巴菲特的信徒。他早年创立了对冲基金，也是一名激进投资者，只是他不怎么谈论这个。今天他刚刚宣布辞去伯克希尔董事会主席职务，成为荣誉主席。1969年他管理着一亿美元的对冲基金，并有权在超过6%回报的基础上获得25%的利润提成。他放弃了这种附带权益分成，把资金返还给投资者，接管了一家相当糟糕的企业。
Original English >> You if you look back you know I'm a sort of Warren Buffett disciple. He started a hedge fund. He was an activist investor. He doesn't talk about it. uh now actually today just announced that he's stepping down as the chair becoming chair of Meritus of Berkshire. Um he was running a hund00 million hedge fund in 1969 and he had a right to receive 25% of the profits over a 6% return. He gave up that promote and he uh gave back the capital to his investors and took control of a pretty shitty business. um you know
>> 纺织厂。
Original English >> clay style mill
>> 一家纺织厂，或者一系列纺织厂，当时中国在纺织领域的竞争力正越来越强。他只拿10万美元年薪，没有任何业绩提成。他为什么要这么做？因为他在计算长期的复利时意识到，如果资本基础可能在一夜之间或短期内流失，他创造价值的能力就会受损。因此，他用好得多的经济利益换取了永久资本，显然这对他来说成效卓著。 在绝大多数其他投资者的资本明天就可能撤走的世界里，不必担心这一点是一个巨大的竞争优势。在进入疫情危机、世界仿佛在崩溃时，我们能够非常积极地部署资本，因为我们不担心月底的赎回。在市场上创造出最佳机会的因素之一，就是绝大多数资产管理公司的资本都可能被抽走。 人类的本能可以追溯到早期人类时期。当你身处大草原上，突然动物们都往那个方向跑，这意味着它们身后有非常可怕的东西。于是人的本能就是跟着跑，否则就会被狮子吃掉。我认为这仍然根植于人类心理中，这就是为什么当市场崩溃时人们会在底部抛售，这纯粹出于恐惧。最重要的纪律之一是对波动性保持冷静客观。但如果你的客户随时准备撤资，你就无法保持客观冷静。 除了主权财富基金（挪威在这方面做得很好），资产管理行业中几乎没有永久资本。这带来了巨大的竞争优势，有些人称之为时间套利，即在短期世界中做长期投资者的能力，因为我们的资本结构，我们真正具备了这种能力。
Original English >> a textile mill or a series of textiles mills at a time when the the Chinese were becoming more and more competitive and he and he took a $100,000 salary and no incentive fee. Um and why did he do it? Because he realized, you know, doing the math on compounding over time that his ability to create value would be impaired by a capital base that could disappear overnight or even disappear in the relative short term. So he he traded uh permanent capital for much less favorable economics and obviously it's worked out well for him. Uh in a world where the vast majority of other investors have capital that can leave tomorrow. It's a huge competitive advantage to not have to you know we were able to go into COVID and the world's melting down and we could be very aggressively deploying capital uh because we weren't worried about redemptions at the end of the month. Um and you know among the things that create the best opportunities in markets is the fact that the vast majority of asset managers have have capital that can can get pulled. You know the human nature I think going back to you know the the early days of of man right the when when the you're in the savannah and all of a sudden animals are running in that direction it means something very frightening is behind them. So the human nature is, you know what, I want to I want to go where they're going because otherwise they're going to get eaten by the lions, right? I think that's still inherent to human psychology, which is why when markets implode, people are selling, you know, quoteunquote at the bottom because it's just that that fear and [snorts] uh you know, one of the important uh disciplines is a kind of a dispassionate, you know, uh view of volatility. Um but you can't be dispassionate if your clients are just going to pull your money. Um and and you know if you can set yourself up in such a way that you're I mean you've you know Norway's done a pretty good job with this but absent being a sovereign wealth fund there's there's very little capital in the asset management industry that's permanent and that gives that's a huge competitive advantage time arbitrage as some people refer to it the ability to be a long-term investor in a short-term world really exists for us because of our capital base.
>> 你拥有了永久资本基础，但你现在也在建立一个投资载体，在某种程度上试图复制伯克希尔。我们应该这样看待它吗，包括保险公司等等？
Original English But you have a permanent capital base, but you're also now setting up an investment vehicle which is in a way well you're trying to replicate virtue. Is that the way we should look at it with an insurance company and so on?
>> 我们也有我们版本的“纺织企业”，碰巧比纺织业务要好得多。[哼笑]
Original English >> So uh we had our version of a textile business. It happens to be a much better [snorts] business than textiles. Um
>> 霍华德休斯（Howard Hughes）。
Original English >> Howard Hughes
>> 霍华德休斯。但这是一家市场赋予较高资本成本的企业，在房地产业务中我们很难超越这种资本成本。它是一门非常好的业务，几十年内会产生大量现金，本质上是建造和开发这些小型城市。我们正在转型该业务。 巴菲特当年是怎么做的？他逐步控制了伯克希尔，退出了纺织业，用纺织业产生的现金买下了一家保险公司。他做了与其他保险运营商不同的事情：典型的保险公司将几乎所有的资产投资于优质的固定收益证券，专注于从负债端（即承保保险）获利。而巴菲特在逐步注重经营盈利保险业务的同时，将承保产生的100%浮存金投资于短期国债，并将保险公司的盈余资金投资于普通股股票。这使他能够经营一家净资产收益率（ROE）达20%以上的保险公司，并随着时间推移奠定了伯克希尔的大部分价值。
Original English >> Howard Hughes but it's a business that is I would say the market assigns a high cost of capital to the business and it's hard for us to exceed that cost of capital in a real estate operation. It's a very good business uh that over decades will generate a huge amount of cash. Basically, it's a business of sort of building these uh and developing these these small cities. What we're doing is we're transforming that business. Uh what did Buffett do? He took control of Berkshire over time. He exited textiles, took the cash from textiles, he bought an insurance company and he did something different from other insurance operators. that is typical insurance company invests nearly the entire uh collection of assets uh in fixed in pretty high-grade fixed income securities and they focus on making a profit on the liabilities i.e writing uh insurance. What Buffett did is he you know over time focused more more on running profitable insurance business but he took a 100% of the float generated by writing uh policies and reinvested uh put that capital in short-term treasuries and took the the surplus of the insurer invested in common stocks and that led enabled him to run a 20 plus% roe insurer that's built most of the value of Bergkshire over time.
>> 那么你认为霍华德休斯在10年后会是什么样子？
Original English So, what do you think Howard Hughes will look like in 10 years time?
>> 在未来几年内，希望以更快的速度，我们将尽可能多地从房地产业务中抽出资本，将其转变为一家轻资产房地产公司，把资本重新投入到保险业务中，然后让保险业务的资本长期高速复合增长。我认为十年后它将是一家80%以上为保险业务、约20%为房地产业务的公司。 我们招募了我们认为是业内顶尖的保险团队。曾执掌Arch Capital Group的马克·布雷内森（Mark Brenesen），他的门生大卫·甘斯堡（David Gansburg），以及AIG前副董事长兼总法律顾问露西·费托（Lucy Fetto）。我们让一个通常会管理500亿到1000亿美元保险业务的团队，来运营一家资本不到20亿美元的保险公司。我们认为可以与该团队做出非常出色的成果，打造一家非常盈利的专业保险公司。 潘兴广场将以类似巴菲特的方式管理资产。我们在6月份完成对保险公司的收购后，立即卖掉了它们所有的中长期固定收益资产，将资金投入短期国债，并将保险公司的一部分净资产投资于普通股股票组合，同样是世界上最优秀的一批企业。 很少有这样的例子。一个有趣的问题是，为什么以前没有人复制巴菲特的做法？
Original English >> Uh, so in the next several years and hopefully on a more accelerated basis, um, we're going to take as much capital as we can out of the real estate operation, turn it into an asset light real estate company, reinvest the capital in the insurance operation, [snorts] and then compound the capital insurance operation at a high rate over time. So, I would say in a decade from now, it will be 80 plus% insurance company and maybe 20% real estate. And then well uh we recruited we believe the best insurance team in the industry. Uh a guy named Mark Brenesen ran a company called Arch Capital Group and then his protege David Gansburg uh Lucy Fetto uh from uh she was the former vice chairman and general counsel of AIG. We have a team that you would normally put into a 50 hundred billion dollar insurance operation running a you know not quite $2 billion capital uh insurance company. And uh we think we can do really interesting things with that team. We think we could run a you know very profitable specialty insurance company. And then Persian Square is going to manage the assets much the same way Buffett has done. We've taken 100 you know the moment we closed on the insure in June. We sold all their fixed income kind of intermediate and longerterm fixed income assets invested the money in short-term treasuries and then we took a portion of the the uh equity the insurer invested in a common stock portfolio. again some of the best businesses in the world. There are very few examples. You know, one interesting question is why hasn't someone replicated what Buffett has done before?
>> 我猜阿波罗（Apollo）算一个？
Original English >> Well, I guess Apollo,
>> 不，截然不同。我们所做的与阿波罗、布鲁克菲尔德、KKR或阿波罗等机构完全不同。 例如，阿波罗收购了一家发行固定年金的寿险公司，并将其作为融资工具，发行固定成本、低成本的负债，然后利用相当高的杠杆机会主义地投资于私人信贷，通过杠杆赚取利差并产生诱人的资本回报。我们收购的是一家实际承担财产险和意外险等保险承保风险的专业保险与再保险公司。我们这不是加杠杆赚利差的业务，而是承担有望盈利的风险，利用保险公司的永久资本进行长期复利，杠杆率远低于那些信贷策略。
Original English >> no, very different. Very different. So, we're doing something very different from Apollo or even Brookfield or KKR uh and others. Aries for example, um Apollo bought a life insurance company that issues kind of fixed annuities and use has used it sort of as a financing vehicle, right? Issuing fixed cost, lowcost liabilities. uh and then investing the money in you know opportunistically in private credit using a decent amount of leverage and create you know taking that spread with some leverage and generating an attractive return on capital. We've bought a specialty insure and reinsur that actually takes insurance risks property casualty and um type risks and uh we're you know we're not it's not a levered spread business. It's a business of you know uh taking on various uh profitable you know hopefully profitable risks uh and then using the permanent capital of the insurer to compound over time but much much lower leverage than a than one of these credit strategies.
### 公开表达、算法机制与真相探寻 >> 你之前提到了X。你在公众面前非常高调和活跃。为什么这是一件好事？
Original English >> Uh now you mentioned X uh earlier you are very public and visible. Why is that a good thing?
>> 一方面这符合我的天性。我高中毕业纪念册上，一位朋友写了一句赠言：“闭上的嘴引不来麻烦（a closed mouth gathers no foot）。”[笑声] 我当时还被评为最健谈的人。
Original English >> Um it one is just sort of inherent to who I am. Uh my you can go back to my high school yearbook. It said uh it said a closed mouth a friend of mine wrote this little epithet. It said you know Bill Aman a closed mouth gathers no foot. Right. So I was always also I think I got most verbal something like this as my uh how people thought of me back then. So
>> 你小时候从父母那里得到的关注很少吗？
Original English >> did you get very did you get very little attention from your parents when you were little?
>> 不，我得到了很多关注。更多的是他们会说我从不听他们说话，而不是他们听不听我说。但我生命中的主要驱动力一直都是获得独立，这样我就可以做我想做的事、说我想说的话，所以言论自由对我一直很重要。 我之所以上X，是因为哈佛大学教授平克（Steven Pinker）。我在一次晚宴上遇到他，他说：“比尔，你应该上X。”我问为什么，他说X上正在发生不可思议的对话，这是他获取大部分信息的地方，他关注了一群有趣的人。所以我上X主要是为了学习。 后来我发了第一条推文，接着我发现自己有了2.5万名粉丝，而我大概只发过一条推文。
Original English >> No. I got plenty of attention. It was more that they would say I never listened than than than that whether to listen to me. But uh it was always important my my principal driver in life has been I wanted to get to a place of independence so I could do what I wanted to do so I could say what I wanted to say and so always free speech was kind of important to me. Um I I went on X actually Pinker you know the uh intellectual [snorts] uh Harvard professor I met him at a dinner party and he's like Bill you X. Um and I'm like why? He says well actually there are incredible conversations happening on X and this is where I could learn most of my information. I follow a group of interesting people and so I went on X more as a to learn. Uh I did my first tweet at some point. Uh and then I noticed I had 25,000 followers and I had maybe done one.
>> 你现在有多少粉丝了？
Original English >> How many have you got now?
>> 差一点到300万。 后来我开始分享关于社会议题、政治或事件的看法。这非常有价值。有人赞同你，有人反对你，你可以从两边学习。我以一种有趣的方式使用X：在每个问题上，我都努力去寻找一方最善于表达、最有深度的代表人物，同时寻找对立面最善于表达的人。 媒体机构的拥有者往往认为拥有媒体就拥有引导时代精神的权利，我不清楚是否有哪家媒体的初衷仅仅是报道绝对的真相，通常所有者都有政治偏见或议程。因此，拥有一个开放的平台让你能够自主选择想听谁的发言，是非常强大的。大多数人在心理上喜欢听赞同自己的人，我也喜欢听认同我的人，但我也喜欢听反对意见。从投资的角度来看，这是我获取投资想法、了解世界动态的最佳来源之一；作为一名世界公民，这也是理解重大议题、倾听不同视角的途径。
Original English >> One tweet uh just shy of three million. And then I started getting, you know, I was always passionate about issues or politics or events, but I started sort of sharing them and uh and it's actually very valuable. You uh you have people who agree with you, you have people who don't and you can learn from both. And I I use X in kind of an interesting way in that on I try in every issue to get find the most articulate, thoughtful person on one side of the issue and then the same on the other side of the issue. And I think it's very difficult to read, you know, every owner of a media property views the the right of ownership to kind of shape, you know, uh the the zeitgeist in some kind of way. Uh so every every media I don't know that there's any media property where their intent is let's just come out with the absolute truth. Usually, you know, the owner has a political bias or agenda. Um, which is why it's actually quite powerful to have an open playing field where you can select, you know, who you want to listen to. Now, most people, I think psychologically, like to hear from people who agree agree with them. I like to hear from people who agree with me. I also like to hear from people who disagree. So, I've actually found it uh from an investment perspective, it's been one of my best sources of ideas, understanding what's going on in the world. Um, and then from a just being a a citizen of the world, understanding important issues and and hearing different perspectives. So, so I like it and then I'm now part of the conversation which is which
>> 从哲学上来说我同意你的看法。我也认为存在类似客观真理的东西。你认为从哲学层面来看社会正在朝那个方向发展吗，还是你怎么看？
Original English >> philosophically so I agree with you. I also think there is something like the objective truth. Do you think philosophically the society is going in that direction or what what do you think
>> 我不知道社会是否正在走向客观真理。我认为社交媒体……为什么世界如此分裂？我们大概必须归咎于Facebook和其他社交媒体，多巴胺的分泌和广告收益取决于用户在应用上花费的时间。人们发现激发情绪、激怒受众是保持参与度的方法。如今社交媒体的性质往往促使人们更加坚信自己进入应用时持有的既有观点。 我在Twitter上向埃隆提过几次建议，也许我需要私下更大力地推动他。我认为每当阅读一条推文时，应该有一个按钮可以点击查看最强反方论点——比如关注人数最多、针对同一主题阐述最清晰或点赞最多的替代观点。听到对立面的论证对人们非常有帮助。不幸的是，人们往往倾向于只看福克斯（Fox）或CNN等符合自己偏好的媒体。
Original English >> go I don't know that society is going to the objective truth? I think that the social media unfortunately is I mean why is the world so divided? I think the answer I mean we probably have to blame Facebook and other social media because you know the the the dopamine is released uh and the and the advertising profits are released based on the amount of time someone spends on the app and uh what people figured out is that you know uh getting triggering people is a way to keep them engaged. And uh the nature of social media today tends to push people to believe even stronger in whatever views they came to the the app with. Uh you know, I've I've encouraged Elon on Twitter a couple times. Maybe I need to push him a little more privately. I do think there should be a button on every every time you read a tweet, you should be able to push a button to find the best argument. You know, who's the most followed person who's had the most articulate or maybe the most liked alternative argument for the same subject. So that I think it's very helpful to people to hear people make the case for the other side. Unfortunately, people tend to go to, you know, uh they'll go to Fox or they go to CNN or they go to whatever they're um
>> 保持开放心态的关键是什么？
Original English >> what's the but what's the key to keeping an open mind.
>> 你必须坚信这很重要。我从不固执己见，我总是想听听另一方的意见。
Original English >> You have to believe that it's important. I'm never convinced. I I I always want to hear the other side, you know.
>> 但你能真正听得进去吗？
Original English >> But do you do you do you if you take it in properly?
>> 我尽力做到这一点。顺便说一句，在投资中，对一个想法建立信心的最佳方法是什么？找到针对你所持资产最优秀的做空者，听听他们的论点。如果你能反驳他们的每一个论点，你对投资就会更有信心。
Original English >> I do my best to. Yes. Um, and investing, by the way, what's the best way to get conviction in an investment idea? Find the best short seller in something that you own and and hear your their arguments. If you can rebut each of their arguments, then you can feel more confident in your investment.
>> 对你的其他观点也应该是一样的。找到能够为你为什么是错的做出最有说服力论证的人。然后，要么他们说服了你从而证明你错了，要么你能够严谨地反驳他们的各项论点。我们通向真相的最大希望，就是倾听各方的声音……
Original English >> And the same thing is should be true for your other views. Find the person who makes the best case for why you're wrong. And then uh either they convince you and you're wrong or you can carefully rebut each of their various arguments. sort of enables you to get to I think it enable the best hope we have to get to the truth is hearing from all sides
>> 然后甄别出谁的论点更有力。
Original English >> and then sorting through who's got the better argument.
### 哈佛大学争议与校园言论 >> 你为什么对哈佛大学当时的情况感到如此愤怒？
Original English >> Why were you so upset about the situation at Harvard?
>> 首先，你在一个人生的关键时期在一所大学度过了相当长的时光。我读了哈佛学院，也读了哈佛商学院，那是我人生中重要的六年。因此你对一所大学怀有特定的感情与忠诚。我一年会去哈佛校园几次，见见学生，教几次课。
Original English >> Um so one you know uh you go you spend a meaningful part of your life at a university at a kind of pretty important time. So you know I went to Harvard College. I also went to Harvard Business School. Now that's six meaningful uh years of my life. Some of the best every year of my life is a great year but you know it's a critical time. So, you have a certain affection and a loyalty uh to to uh to a university. Uh and um you know, I would I show up on the Harvard campus a couple times a year. I meet students. Uh teach a couple classes, things like this. I've been
>> 所以你也给他们捐了不少钱。
Original English >> So, you're giving them some money, too.
>> 也给他们捐了钱。 接着10月7日事件发生了。在10月8日早晨，当以色列土地上仍有恐怖分子在杀害平民时，哈佛的34个学生组织发表声明称，以色列应对哈马斯过去24小时的行径负全部责任。34个学生组织签署了这样一封信。我感到非常困惑。 于是我前往校园试图了解到底发生了什么。随着我进一步深入探究，我开始了解到这种“压迫者与被压迫者”的叙事。此前我非常天真，甚至没有听说过这些，他们开始谈论DEI（多元、平等、包容）是如何交织在这一语境中的。 随后，教授们在私下对我透露：“比尔，这里不是一个可以畅所欲言的地方。”哈佛顶尖的教授也对我说过这种话。我想，如果教授不敢表达观点，学生不敢表达观点，只允许存在某些被认可的观点，那这算是什么样的教育？此外，哈佛开始在录取学生时放弃择优录取和追求卓越，这对于一所顶尖大学而言绝非良策。 要说我为什么感到难过，是因为我亲眼目睹了一件对我极其重要的事物在实质性地衰退。
Original English >> Giving them some money, too. And then October 7th happened, which uh and then on the morning of October 8th, while there were terrorists still on Israeli soil killing people, 34 Harvard student organizations came out and said that Israel was solely responsible for the acts of Hamas of the last 24 hours. And 34 student organizations, you know, signed this this sort of letter. And I'm like, well, this doesn't I was sort of very puzzled by this. Then I went up to the campus to try to understand uh you know, sort of what's going on. And the kind of more I I dug on the topic, I started learning about this oppressor oppressed narrative very naively. I I I had not even heard of uh people and which they started talking about, you know, how DEI is sort of part of the web of this conversation. Uh and then you know professors behind closed doors would tell me Bill you this is not a place where you can speak freely. You know I would say among the top professors at Harvard would say this to me. So I'm like what kind of education can you have if the professors are afraid to speak their points of view? The students are afraid to speak their points of view and there certain accepted points of view. And then we're meritoc you know Harvard is starting to admit students um without [clears throat] you know kind of giving up on uh meritocracy and excellence um which is also not a good strategy for a best-in-class university. So I would say why do they get upset because something very important to me uh I watched it uh diminish in a meaningful way and yeah
### 家庭变故、脑机接口与康复科学探索 >> 你提到你的家庭在今年早些时候经历了一场悲剧。你愿意谈谈这个吗？ 当然。我26岁的女儿突发脑出血。她患有一种名为动静脉畸形（arteriovenous malformation）的脆弱病症。这种病只有做核磁共振（MRI）才能发现，但由于她从未出现过任何症状，所以从未做过检查。 事情发生在一个清晨，当时她独自一人在公寓里。直到深夜，由于她多次未能回复我们的联系，我们才发现了她。大面积脑出血，大脑承受了近19个小时的巨大压力。大多数人会因此失去生命，即使救回来的那些人，往往也会在疗养院中离世。这成了我重大的生活目标之一，就是要把她带回来。
Original English >> uh you mentioned that your family went through a tragedy earlier in the year. Is that something you want to talk about? Sure. So, uh, my daughter, uh, my 26-year-old daughter had a brain hemorrhage. Um, she had a a weakness of something called a arterial venus malfform. Um, something we could only have been aware of had she had an MRI, which she never had because she never had really any symptoms. And it happened uh, you know, early in the morning when she was alone in her apartment. And we didn't discover her until late at night when she wasn't responding to repeated attempts for us to reach her. And uh you know large brain hemorrhage, a lot of pressure on the brain for almost 19 hours. Um you know most people die uh and even the ones you save, you know, they they they die later in a nursing home because um and sort of made it my one of my important life goals to to to bring her back.
>> 这在过去的七个月里一直是一个沉重的阴影。
Original English >> Um so that that has been uh a big overhang in the last seven months.
>> 是的。但你在资助这个领域的一些新项目。
Original English >> Yeah. But it's you're funding some new initiatives in this space.
>> 最初的焦点完全在她身上。但随着我对大脑康复、中风康复的了解越来越深入，我意识到我们在这个领域投入的研究如此之少，因为许多神经外科和神经内科医生持有虚无主义的态度，他们不认为自己能为患者做多少事，而实际上有许多事情是可以做的。 我的女儿几乎丧失了基本机能——行走能力、说话能力和视力，而她现在正在恢复机能。就认知而言，据我所知她完全正常。她正在重新学习说话，重新学习走路，我相信我们能让她康复。 目前最大的挑战是大脑压力造成的视神经损伤，导致她丧失了大约98%的视力。但即便如此我也很乐观。最近几个月我花了很多时间与各种脑机接口公司会面。最著名的显然是Neuralink，但还有其他一些非常有前景的低侵入性技术。随着AI的发展，我们将能从大脑中捕获更多信号，并比以往更有效地解读这些信号。盲人将重见光明，无法行走的人（如截瘫患者）将能够重新行走。这不是几个月的事，而是几年的事，但不会需要太多年。 虽然遭遇了这场悲剧，但我对她的康复抱有乐观预期，并对该技术的潜力感到兴奋。我日常工作的幸事之一就是它让我能够了解很多领域；其次，我拥有房地产等方面的技能。我们在纽约整合了一处3.4英亩的场地，建有一栋40万平方英尺的生物科技大楼。然后我发了一条推文，借助Twitter的力量，招募了优秀的人才来管理这个研究所。 几乎每个人都有父母、兄弟姐妹或身边的人遭遇过意外、中风、中弹或是患上阿尔茨海默病及认知能力退化。大脑几乎就是一切，而我们在其上投入的时间、精力和资源严重不足，科学资助环境的运作方式存在很多制约。因此，我们将投入大量资源来寻找这些问题的答案。
Original English >> You know, the first focus has been her, but the more I learned about brain rehab, recovery, strokes, rehabilitation, the more I realized how little we've done in this area because many neurosurgeons and neurologists are sort of nihilists. They don't really believe that they can do much for patients and there's so much that can be done. And you know, my daughter who um you know, lost pretty much, you know, basic function, ability to walk, ability to speak, ability to see, uh is, you know, regaining function. She's cognitively, as far as I can tell, fine. Uh she's relearning how to speak. Um and she's learning again how to walk. And I'm confident we're going to get her back. um you know biggest challenge right now is that the optic nerve damage from the pressure on the brain that has caused her to lose you know probably 98% of her of her vision. Uh but even there I'm optimistic. You know spent a lot of time in the last few months meeting with all these sort of brain computer interface companies. Obviously Neurolink being the most famous but there's some other very promising um lower uh uh intervention uh technologies. Um and this will be a period you know AI is going to enable us we're going to be able to get more signal from the brain and we're going to be able to interpret that signal much more uh effectively than we had before. and you know the and the blind will see again and uh people have not been able to walk uh you know so to speak parapolgics I believe will walk again and that's going to be it's a matter of not months but years but not too many years um so so tragedy um you know I I have optimism that she's going to recover and I have I'm excited about the the potential and you know one of the fortunate things about my day job is is uh it's enabled me uh to one learn about lots of things. Two, I've got certain skills that apply real estate and otherwise. And we've been able to assemble a 3.4 acre site in New York with a 400,000 foot biotech building. And then I put out a tweet, the power of uh Twitter. Yeah. And and recruiting incredible people to run this institute. There are a lot of people who've been a I mean it's there's almost no one who's doesn't have a parent or a sibling or someone who's had either an accident, a stroke, uh you know, uh they've gone to war and you got taken a bullet um or you know Alzheimer's or cognitive decline. I mean this is something you know the brain uh is sort of everything uh and we've not spent enough time, energy, resources and there are lots of constraints in the way the funding environment works for science. So, we're going to put a lot of resources into answering these questions.
>> 纽约市确实是一个适合做这件事的好地方。
Original English >> And actually, New York City is a is a good place to do it.
>> 是的，确实如此。 感谢你的分享。我也是三个同龄孩子的父亲。我无法想象你经历了怎样的过程。
Original English >> Yeah, for sure. Well, thanks for sharing. I uh I'm a father of uh three kids in the same age, so but I don't think I can imagine what you've been through here.
>> 是的，这是一件极其艰难的事。
Original English >> Yeah, it's been it's a big deal.
### 人生失败、感恩习惯与乐观主义 >> 比尔，你人生中最大的个人失败是什么？
Original English >> Yeah. Bill, um what's your biggest personal failure in life? [snorts]
>> 最大的个人失败。我很满意自己现在的状态。我看待自己经历的失败时觉得，如果回到当初在某个路口我选择了向左而不是向右，今天大概就不会坐在这里面对你了。
Original English >> Biggest personal failure. You know, I'm sort of a person who I'm very happy where I am. Uh, so I kind of view failures that I've had over time as, you know, if you think about the events that caused me to sit across from you today, you know, had I gone left at one point instead of right, it probably wouldn't be wouldn't be here.
>> 你有系统性表达感恩的方式吗？
Original English >> Do you have a systematic way of being grateful?
>> 没有系统性的方式，我天生就是这样的人。
Original English >> Not systematic. I'm just inherently that way.
>> 我每天早晨都有一个固定的仪式……
Original English >> Yeah. Well, I I would say I'm in I have I have a ritual I go through every morning which is really
>> 有意思。列出清单之类的？
Original English >> Okay. Interesting. So, you make a list of like
>> 是的，我就梳理一下我真正心怀感激的事情，大概花上一分钟，这彻底重塑了我的一天。
Original English >> Yeah. Yeah. I just go through the things I'm really grateful for and it takes like one minute and it's just it totally reframes my my day.
>> 我每天也都有这种感觉。我是个乐观主义者。你采访过很多人，在你采访过的成功人士中，有悲观主义者吗？我认为一个都没有。
Original English >> Yeah. But I I feel that way every day obvious Obviously. Um but uh I'm an optimist. Uh interestingly and you interview a lot of people. Have any of the people you've interviewed who are successful are they that are they pessimist? I don't think there's one.
>> 没有。
Original English >> No.
>> 所以我认为乐观非常重要。
Original English >> Okay. So I think optimism is really important.
>> 非常重要。
Original English >> Very.
>> 我也心怀感恩与赞赏。虽然我没有系统性地去做，但这是我天性的一部分。我热爱每一天，绝对如此。
Original English >> And I'm also you know grateful appreciative. I I don't do it systematically, but it's it's part of my Yes. I I I love every day. Absolutely.
>> 人们所不知道的关于你的一件事是什么？
Original English >> What's the one thing about you that people don't know?
>> 我算得上是全美最透明的人了，我不知道别人还有什么不知道的。我其实排球打得非常好。[笑声]
Original English >> I'm I'm like the most transparent guy in America. I don't know what the what is the one thing that about me. Um I'm actually a really good volleyball player. [laughter]
>> 我以为你打网球。
Original English >> I thought you were a tennis player.
>> 我网球也打得很好。除此之外我真不知道还有什么，这是个好问题。
Original English >> Yes, tennis people. I'm good tennis player. Um I don't know what what's the one thing. I don't know what it is. That's a good question.
### 正义论、制度与地缘安全 >> 在你读过的书中，哪本书对你启发最大？
Original English >> Um when you look at the books you've read, what which book has taught you the most?
>> 我不知道是否有哪一本书启发最大，但有一本书对我产生了非常重大的影响：约翰·罗尔斯（John Rawls）的《正义论》。该书建立了一个关于如何看待世界、义务等问题的框架。书的基本前提是每个人都应该做一个思想实验：回到你出生之前，当你即将降生时，你不知道你的母亲会不会是布朗克斯区的吸毒者，你会不会出生在撒哈拉以南非洲，会不会降生在伊朗，还是会成长在纽约上东区且父亲是投资银行家；在不知道自己个人境遇的前提下，组织这个世界最公平的方式是什么？我认为这是思考世界应当如何组织的一个非常有趣的视角。人们往往倾向于基于个人立场来看待事物。
Original English >> I don't know if there's one book that's taught me the most, but there's one book that had a very significant impact on me. Um Theory of Justice by John RS, which is a a book that sets up a framework for how to think about the world and obligations and things like this. Basically, the the premise of the book is everyone should do a thought experiment. Kind of go back to before you're born. Uh, and you're about to be be born. Uh, is your mother a drug addict in the Bronx? Uh, are you born in subsaharan Africa? Are you uh going to show up in Iran? um or are you going to grow up on the upper east side of New York and dad's an investment banker in that you don't know where you're going to land? Uh how would you organize the what's the fairest way to organize the world before knowing what your personal outcome is? And I think it's a very interesting way to think about how the world should be organized. You know, people tend to frame things based on, you know, their their personal perspective.
>> 世界应该如何组织？
Original English >> How should the world be organized?
>> 我想说到目前为止，资本主义是我们所构想出的最好的制度。世界应该如何组织？
Original English >> Uh I would say uh so far capitalism is the best system that we've we've come up with. Um you know I think how should the world be organized?
>> 这是一个很大的问题。
Original English >> It's a pretty big question.
>> 是的。[笑声] 我喜欢我们的制度。我赞同基本的宪法权利、《权利法案》赋予我们的各项保障，我认为保护它们至关重要。 我认为世界上最强大的国家扮演一个良性行动者的角色非常关键。
Original English >> Yeah. Uh [laughter] look I I like our system. you know, I like, you know, the basic uh constitutional rights, bill of rights type uh [snorts] things that we've been offered and I think it's really important that we we protect them. Um, you know, I think it's very important that the most powerful country in the world is a benign actor. Uh, that uh yes, it has to yes, we're I think America first is is
>> 它现在是一个良性行动者吗？
Original English >> it a benign actor now?
>> 我认为美国总统实际上是在努力做好事。很多人反对任何不直接影响美国本土的战争，但在一个人们可以获取核武器的世界里，伊朗此前越来越接近我们无法遏制其核能力的边缘；而我们放任朝鲜发展到了我们对其核能力无能为力的境地，因为他们与韩国的邻近让其具备了有效威慑我们干预其核计划的筹码。伊朗非常明确地表明，从对待其人民和女性的方式来看，他们并不遵循生存、自由、追求幸福等我们所奉行的原则。你不会希望那样的人获得绝对权力。 人工智能也带来了同样的挑战。我不认为我们能够在AI发展上放慢脚步，设想如果我们的敌人获得了超级智能会怎样。因此我认为在全球范围内美国终究是一个良性行动者，虽然并不完美，但目标和原则是好的。我认为我们保持在军事、AI和核能力方面的卓越地位非常重要，以此来威慑那些敌对力量。我认为西方价值观优于某些激进主义，后者对西方是切实的威胁。
Original English >> I I think the president of the United States is actually trying to do good. uh you know I think a lot of people have objected to you know objected to any wars that are you know where it doesn't impact US soil but you know in a world where people can get access to nuclear weapons you know Iran was getting closer and closer to a place where we couldn't do anything about their nuclear nuclear capability uh North Korea we allowed North Korea to get to a place where we couldn't do anything about their nuclear capability because we allowed them to build a you know a their [snorts] proximity to South Korea enabled them to you you which effectively scared us from trying to intervene in their nuclear program. U you know Iran has sort of made it very clear that they they're not operating with any of the same kind of life, liberty, pursuit of happiness principles that we operate under the way they treat their people, their women, their etc. You wouldn't want someone like that to get in effect absolute power. You know AI creates the same challenge. Um I don't know that we can slow down on AI because imagine if [snorts] you know one of our enemies gets to super intelligence. So I think it's really important uh you know the I I think ultimately the US is a is a benign actor um uh globally um an imperfect but uh you know I think our our goals and principles are are good. I think it's important we maintain our preeminent military AI and uh nuclear capability to deter you know people who want to kill us or are you know I think western ideals are better than um you know some of the um you know the uh radical Islam I think is a real a real threat to to uh to the west.
### 对年轻人的建议：圈子、学习与品格 >> 在这个复杂的世界里，你对年轻人有什么建议？ 我的建议是：年轻时和谁在一起非常重要。你往往会变成你身边交往的人，或受到他们的启发。我读高中时，身边的伙伴在包括学业在内的很多方面都很有竞争心。这部分解释了我为什么是个好学生，因为我生来就有竞争意识，想取得好成绩，这对我进入好大学很有帮助。你会从与你关系最亲密的人身上学到最多，所以这是一个非常关键的因素。 AI为什么变得如此强大？答案是它们阅读了大量书籍和内容，这就是训练模型的本质。我认为人脑也是类似的。训练人脑的方式就是尽可能多地吸收信息。因此，阅读并追随自己的兴趣，从而训练自己的“模型”。如何达到极高的智力水平？我认识的每一个极其聪明的人都读过海量的书。所以专注于你热衷的事物，哪怕是汽车、军事或历史都可以。 此外，要了解营养、健康、锻炼和睡眠。不要过量饮酒，如果能戒酒就更好；糖是毒药；力量训练是非常好的事，对自信心、外表和健康都有益。 要慎选交往的圈子。沃伦·巴菲特到哈佛商学院演讲时曾给出过一段非常好的建议。他说如果你想取得成功，需要具备一定数量的品质。想想你学校里最钦佩的人，除了像马友友这种音乐家或奥运选手、迈克尔·乔丹这种必须完全专注于一项专项才能达到卓越的极少数人之外，成功取决于具备某些人类品质：守时、及时回复别人的联络、在没有人注视时依然做正确的事。所有这些人类品格特征都是你明天就能拥有的，这只是你做出的一个决定：“我想成为一个好人。”成为迈克尔·乔丹需要付出海量的工作，而且可能是绝无仅有的；但品格并不需要多么艰苦的劳作，它只需要一个决定。成为别人钦佩的人、成为有品格的人、成为被老板关注的人，这些品质是完全可以实现的。 还有，你人生中最重要的决定之一就是选择与谁共度余生，比如你的伴侣、妻子或丈夫。对这个决定要深思熟虑。
Original English >> So, in this complex world, what is your advice to young people? My advice is it really matters who you hang out with when you're younger? Uh, you tend to become or be inspired or otherwise by the people you hang out with. I happen to when I was in high school, I hung out with kids who were kind of competitive about lots of things, including school. And as a result, you know, partly explains why I was a good student because I wanted to I was inherently sort of competitive and I wanted to get I don't know good grades that you know that was helpful to me in getting into a good a good college. Um but yeah, you learn the most from the people that you're you're closest to. So I think that's a really important thing. I think you know it's interesting you know how how has AI become so powerful? The answer is they've basically read a lot of books and read a lot of content. That's what that's what training a model is. I think the human brain is kind of similar, right? You and the way you train a human brain is by consuming as much information as you can. So reading uh and pursuing what's interested you pursuing what interests you so that you you train the model, you know, I think you I think how do you get to super intelligence? I don't know any very intelligent person that hasn't read a ton. Uh so I think that's a good place to go and focus on what you're passionate about. I mean if it's cars, fine. if it's you know military if it's history you know so I think that's really really important and then uh get interested and understand nutrition health exercise sleep um don't consume a lot of alcohol in fact if you can just skip it it's great sugar is poison um uh weightlifting is a really good thing to do um it's good for confidence it's good for appearance it's good for health so I would say yeah your your circle. Oh, you know, operate in such a fashion that um you know when Warren Buffett came to speak at Harvard Business School, he said something that I thought was really really good advice. He said basically, if you want to be successful, there are a certain number of qualities that you need to have. Think of the people that you go to school with that you admire the most. other than you know Yoyo Ma or you know some Olympic athlete who's had to just focus on you know you know Michael Jordan you know basketball in order to achieve the greatness success depends on having certain human qualities you know showing up on time um you know responding to people who reach out to you doing the right thing when no one's watching um all of these human character traits are things you can have tomorrow. It's just a decision you make. I want to be a good person. It's whereas being Michael Jordan is going to be you know first of all maybe you know end of one but it requires enormous amounts of work to achieve its character doesn't require really any work. It just requires sort of a decision [snorts] and I thought that was really really good advice. So uh you want to be a person that other people admire. You want to be a person of character. You want to be a person that is noticed by your boss. these qualities are ones that uh are totally achievable. So, I think those would be a few things I would give. Oh, and then when you're um one of the most important decisions you make is who you're going to spend the rest of your life with, like your partner, your wife, your your husband, be very thoughtful about that decision.
>> 是的。
Original English >> Yeah.
>> 不要仓促做出决定，但也别拖太久才决定。[笑声]
Original English >> And don't rush into it, but don't take too long to make it either. [laughter]
>> 非常好的结语，比尔。谢谢。
Original English >> Great way to end be. Thanks.
>> 谢谢。 非常希望大家喜欢这一期节目。如果您喜欢，请点赞、订阅并开启通知。这能帮助我们邀请到更多优秀的嘉宾。
Original English >> Thank you. Really hoped you like the episode. If you did, please like it, subscribe, and put on the notification. This really helps us to get new great guests.