---
author: Joseph Wang
date: '2026-01-03'
guest: ''
layout: post.njk
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56QALLCTNWc
speaker: Joseph Wang
tags:
- regime-change
- oil-prices
- silver-market
- geopolitical-strategy
- inflation-war
title: 2026开年地缘政治巨震与市场风暴：委内瑞拉变局与白银动荡解析
summary: 2026年初，全球地缘政治格局发生剧烈动荡。美国成功“移除”委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，引发对拉美地区主导权、石油资源控制及全球力量平衡的深刻影响。同时，白银市场经历剧烈波动，受芝加哥商品交易所（CME）保证金提高及中国出口管制双重因素影响。文章分析了这些事件对通胀、全球经济及地缘政治联盟的潜在后果。
insight: ''
draft: true
series: ''
category: geopolitics
area: geopolitics
project: []
people: []
companies_orgs:
- CME
- Chevron
products_models: []
media_books: []
status: evergreen
---
### 地缘政治巨震：委内瑞拉的剧变与美国战略重塑
2026年1月3日，新年伊始，全球地缘政治格局便迎来了一场“地震”。美国总统特朗普成功“移除”了委内瑞拉总统马杜罗，这一事件无疑是本周地缘政治领域最重磅的消息。此次行动不仅标志着美国在中美洲及南美洲地区影响力的一次强势扩张，也预示着全球力量平衡可能发生的深刻调整。
此次行动的背景是委内瑞拉长期以来严峻的经济和人道主义危机。作为拥有全球最大已探明石油储量的国家，委内瑞拉本应是地区强国，但由于长期的经济 mismanagement（管理不善）和左翼政权的治理不力，其石油产量锐减，经济几近崩溃。据联合国统计，约有20%的委内瑞拉人口（约700万人）已逃离国家，形成了严重的人道主义灾难。马杜罗政权在近期一次选举中本应落败，却通过非法手段巩固了其事实上的独裁地位，并与俄罗斯、伊朗等国保持紧密联系，与“特朗普团队”背道而驰。
此次军事行动由美国特种部队执行，目标直指马杜罗的住所，并成功将其及其妻子逮捕，随后被送往纽约接受美国法院审判。行动过程高效且几乎零伤亡，展现了美国军事力量的精准打击能力。此举直接导致了马杜罗政权的垮台，并实现了委内瑞拉的“政权更迭”。虽然这与特朗普“美国优先”的孤立主义口号有所不同，但它符合其“特朗普主义”的核心——即加强美国在拉丁美洲的控制力。此次行动的动机被认为是双重的：一是巩固美国在拉丁美洲的影响力，二是获取委内瑞拉丰富的石油资源。特朗普政府明确表示，此次行动不会耗费纳税人资金，而是将通过控制委内瑞拉的石油资源来收回成本。
Original English
Hello
my
friends.
Today
is
January
3rd,
2026.
I
want
to
wish
everyone
a
happy
new
year.
Now
before
we
begin,
I
want
to
bring
to
your
attention
that
I've
noticed
that
some
of
you
are
not
receiving
weekly
updates
from
my
blog
posts.
I've
looked
into
this
and
discovered
that
this
is
a
technical
problem
and
hopefully
I
will
have
this
resolved
by
Monday.
But
remember,
you
can
always
access
my
posts
on
my
website
and
of
course
whenever
I
have
a
new
post,
I
will
tweet
about
it
on
Twitter.
Okay,
so
this
week
I
actually
had
initially
planned
to
make
it
a
geopolitical
episode
since
we
had
so
many
big
things
happening
in
the
world
of
geopolitics
the
past
week.
Little
did
I
know
what
we
would
have
this
huge
huge
event
that
happened
this
morning
where
it
seems
like
President
Trump
has
successfully
taken
out
President
Maduro
of
Venezuela.
So
this
is
definitely
an
earthquake
in
the
world
of
geopolitics.
So
we
got
to
talk
about
uh
what
happened
and
what
it
all
means
for
the
economy
and
for
markets.
And
also
we
have
to
talk
a
little
bit
about
silver
as
well.
So
silver
totally
imploded
uh
in
the
beginning
of
the
week.
There
are
some
concrete
causes
for
that
although
it
did
recover
a
little
bit
more.
So
first
though
let's
talk
about
what
happened
in
the
world
of
geopolitics.
So
I
think
there
are
four
theaters
in
the
world
and
in
each
geopolitical
theater
we
had
some
pretty
big
developments
from
the
far
east
to
Latin
America
to
Europe
to
the
Middle
East.
Starting
with
the
Far
East.
So
earlier
in
the
week,
last
week,
we
had
China
make
pretty
big
military
exercises
all
around
Taiwan.
And
what
they
seem
to
be,
you
know,
kind
of
projecting
is
that
they
could
easily
blockade
Taiwan.
And
if
they
were
to
blockade
Taiwan,
again,
Taiwan
is
an
island,
so
it's
not
self-sufficient
in
many
things
like
oil.
Uh
the
ch
the
Taiwanese
economy
would
easily
crumble
and
um
it
would
be
the
end
of
that
pretty
quickly.
Now
the
broader
context
of
course
is
that
not
too
long
ago
you
had
Prime
Minister
Tekachi
of
Japan
make
supportive
statements
for
Taiwan
that
really
angered
the
Chinese
and
you
know
President
Trump
actually
seemed
to
reportedly
intervene
to
maybe
just
politely
suggest
the
Japanese
prime
minister
to
maybe
moderate
her
stance
a
little
bit.
Although
by
all
reports
uh
Japan
still
stands
in
support
of
Taiwan
in
case
of
potential
military
conflict.
For
context
here,
uh
Taiwan
was
once
a
Japanese
colony.
Many
people
in
Taiwan
remember
that
period
positively
and
look
upon
Japan
in
a
very
positive
light.
But
of
course,
if
you
recall
from
the
United
States's
most
recent
national
security
strategy,
the
US
is
basically
viewing
the
world
as
multipolar
where
every
country
has
your
sphere
of
influence.
Very
clearly
the
United
States
will
have
a
Trump
correlary
to
the
Monroal
doctrine.
Latin
America,
North
America
will
be
under
the
United
States.
And
you
know,
I
think
the
the
implication
of
course
is
that
the
Far
East,
at least
when
it
comes
to
Taiwan,
will
be
under
China
and
maybe
Russia
will
have
Ukraine.
Now,
moving
on
to
Eastern
Europe.
Earlier
in
the
week,
uh
Russia
loudly
complained
that
uh
Ukraine
will
actually
launched
a
very
mass-cale
assassination
attempt
on
President
Putin.
Apparently,
there
was
a
large
fleet
of
Ukrainian
drones
launched
and
Russia
alleges
that
these
drones
were
targeted
towards
where
where
President
Putin
was
and
it
was
an
assassination
account.
Putin
actually
complained
to
Trump
which
then
complained
to
President
Zalinski.
Now,
the
US
it
seems
that
reports
suggest
have
determined
that
this
actually
was
not
an
assassination
attempt
that
maybe
they
were
targeting
other
military
installations
in
in
Russia.
But
at
the
end
of
the
day,
if
Russia
is
claiming
this
and
perceiving
this,
then
again,
that
is
an
escalation
in
the
Russia
Ukraine
war
and
suggests
that
peace
talks
are
not
going
well
and
maybe
it
could
serve
as
a
pretext
for
further
military
escalation
by
the
Russians.
Moving
on
to
the
Middle
East,
also
another
very
interesting
development.
Now,
you
had
Prime
Minister
Benjamin
Netanyahu
of
Israel
basically
just,
you
know,
fly
down
to
Mara
Lago,
hang
out
with
the
president
the
fifth
time.
He's
done
this
this
year.
That's
kind
of
a
record.
And
what
usually
happens,
of
course,
is
that
after
these
discussions,
you
have
some
kind
of
geopolitical
escalation.
Now,
it's
no
secret
what
Prime
Minister
Netanyahu
would
like
is
to
have
more
military
action
on
Iran,
but
of
course,
they
can't
do
that
without
the
support
of
the
United
States.
Last
time
they
attacked
Iran,
Iran
retaliated
with
missiles
and
a
lot
of
those
missiles
were
intercepted
by
US
um
US
support.
And
so
they
really
need
the
US
to
protect
them
to
be
able
to
attack
Iran.
Now
reporting
suggests
that
right
now
what
u
Netanyahu
is
saying
is
that
you
know
Iran
they
have
these
ballistic
missiles.
They
can
attack
Israel.
They
are
a
threat
to
us.
We
got
to
go
and
take
out
that
capability.
Now
notice
now
that
the
goalposts
are
moving.
initially
was
that
Iran
could
never
have
nuclear
weapons
and
so
we
need
to
take
that
out
and
you
know
President
Trump
went
and
bombed
the
nuclear
facilities
in
Iran.
Now
the
standard
is
being
lowered.
It's
not
that
Iran
can
have
nuclear
weapons
is
that
they
can't
have
ballistic
missiles
and
if
uh
the
president
agrees
with
that
lower
standard
then
yes
that
he's
greenlighting
more
military
attacks
in
the
Middle
East.
But
of
course,
the
most
interesting
geopolitical
action
we
have
is
in
Latin
America.
Remember,
not
too
long
ago,
the
Trump
administration
told
the
entire
world
that
Latin
America
belongs
to
us.
So,
we
are
going
to
call
the
shots
here.
Now,
earlier
in
the
week,
uh
the
president
surprised
the
world
by
revealing
that
the
CIA
actually
carried
covert
operations
on
Venezuelan
soil.
Now,
everyone
knew
that
the
US
had
a
Navy
presence
right
outside
of
Venezuela,
that
they
had
been
blowing
up
Venezuelan
boats,
but
until
earlier
in
the
week,
they
had
not
uh
done
anything
on
Venezuelan
soil.
So,
that
was
a
very
clear
escalation.
A
CIA
bombing
facilities
in
Venezuelan
ports.
This
morning,
it
was
revealed
that
around
2:00
a.m.,
US
forces
basically
flew
in
uh
to
where
President
Maduro
of
Venezuela
was
staying.
uh
basically
kidnapped
him
and
his
wife,
put
him
on
a
ship,
the
USS
Euima,
and
that
ship
is
now
on
route
to
New
York
where
uh
President
Madura
will
face
the
US
courts.
Now,
throughout
this
operation,
uh
it
was
it
was
only
a
few
hours.
There
were
reportedly
zero
US
casualties.
One
US
helicopter
was
hit,
but
that
US
copter
continued
to
fly
when
it's
able
to
return
uh
to
to
its
uh
to
the
ships.
So
this
was
an
amazing
amazingly
precise
attack
and
amazingly
successful.
Now
by
orchestrating
this
it
all
by
guarantees
that
the
Maduro
regime
has
collapsed
and
that
there
will
be
regime
change
in
Venezuela.
So,
uh,
this
is
definitely
not
in
line
with
the
America
first
ethos
that
President
Trump
often
campaigned
on
where
the
US
would
not,
um,
you
know,
intervene
in
foreign
wars,
nation
building
and
all
that.
But
it
does
fall
under
the
Trump
coralary
of
having
more
power
over
the
Latin
America.
Now,
why
does
Trump
doing
this?
I
think
some
some
context
is
helpful
here.
So,
Venezuela,
if
you
look
on
a
map,
is
actually
a
pretty
large
country.
uh
it's
in
uh
South
America.
It's
the
land
mass
is
about
say
20
30%
larger
than
Texas
and
has
a
population
of
about
30
million
about
the
same
population
as
the
state
of
Texas.
Venezuela
of
course
is
most
known
for
having
a
lot
of
oil.
According
to
studies
it
has
the
most
uh
the
largest
oil
reproven
oil
reserves
in
the
entire
world.
So
it
has
the
potential
to
be
an
oil
superpower.
However,
if
you
look
at
its
output
data
over
the
past
decade,
you'll
notice
that
Venezuela
is
actually
outputting
much
less
oil
today
than
it
did
a
decade
ago.
So,
that
decline
in
oil
output
largely
has
to
do
with
just
the
tremendous
tremendous
mismanagement
of
the
Venezuelan
economy.
If
you
look
at
a
chart
of
Venezuelan
GDP,
you
know,
a
decade
ago,
things
were
actually
going
really
well.
Now,
oil
prices
were
going
up.
uh
Venezuela
was
pumping
a
lot
of
oil
and
the
country
the
people
were
getting
much
wealthier.
Now
that
all
ran
into
problems
when
the
oil
price
of
oil
collapsed
and
then
you
had
new
change
in
regime
a
more
left-wing
regime
came
to
power
in
Caracus
and
they
did
not
do
a
very
good
job
and
what
you
see
is
the
complete
implosion
of
the
Venezuelan
economy.
According
to
the
United
Nations,
about
20%
of
Venezuelans
actually
fled
the
country.
Now,
that's
like
7
million
people.
Uh,
viral
videos
at
the
time
would
show
that
many
Venezuelans
were
basically
starving.
You
can
see
them
throwing
rocks
at
cows,
trying
to
kill
the
cow
to
eat
them.
It
was
very
much
a
humanitarian
disaster.
Now,
you
had
Venezuelan
refugees
flood
the
entire
world.
You
have
Venezuelan
refugees
in
Chile,
um,
in
Colombia,
Mexico,
and
of
course
in
the
United
States.
Uh
this
was
a
tremendous
tremendous
catastrophe.
You
had
a
country
that
was
doing
on
the
upswing
just
just
totally
destroyed
and
of
course
the
people
Venezuelans
did
not
like
that
and
ideally
there
would
be
a
mechanism
for
the
people
to
change
course
to
have
a
new
government.
Of
course
that
was
naturally
through
the
ballot
box.
Now
Venezuela
did
recently
a
few
years
ago
have
an
election
by
all
accounts.
President
Maduro
lost
that
election
in
a
big
way
for
obvious
reasons.
Um
but
uh
you
know
he
just
decided
that
he
didn't
want
to
leave
and
so
basically
became
a
de
facto
dictator
of
Venezuela.
So
this
is
a
guy
who
did
a
terrible
job
ruined
the
lives
of
millions
of
people
ruined
his
country
and
it's
just
not
very
popular.
However
though
and
of
course
he's
uh
not
friends
with
the
Trump
administration
is
friends
with
Russia,
Iran
and
China.
basically
friends
with
people
who
are
not
uh
with
team
Trump,
team
USA.
So
it
seems
like
the
motivation
for
this
uh
move
is
twofold.
One
of
course
is
to
strengthen
US
influence
in
uh
Latin
America
and
secondly
of
course
is
for
oil.
Now,
in
his
uh
in
his
press
conference
after
his
president
is
is
totally
blunt.
You
know,
it's
it's
not
like
President
Bush
going
into
Iraq
and
then
not
so
much
telling
you
about
the
oil,
although
a
lot
of
US
companies
having
big
oil
contracts.
It's
that
the
US
president
is
telling
you
today,
President
Trump
is
telling
you
today
that
Venezuela
has
lots
of
oil
and
the
US
is
going
to
have
control
over
it
and
it's
this
uh
operation
in
Venezuela
is
not
going
to
cost
taxpayer
money
because
uh
the
US
is
going
to
get
paid
through
oil.
So,
it's
very
open
about
it.
The
US
would
like
to
have
more
control
over
Venezuelan
resources.
Now,
a
coup
attempt
has
always
been
telegraphed.
Again,
you
had
that
military
flotillaa
outside
of
Venezuela.
You
also
had
the
US
intelligence
operations
smuggle
out
Venezuelan
opposition
leader
Machado
smuggled
her
out
into
um
to
Sweden
where
she
could
get
her,
you
know,
Nobel
Peace
Prize,
have
more
international
legitimacy.
But
I
think
the
US
has
basically
changed
its
mind
on
that.
She
was,
you
know,
probably
a
plan
B
or
plan
A
or
plan
C
or
something
like
that.
But
maybe
looking
at
how
successful
the
operation
was
today,
the
president
very
openly
told
everyone
that
actually
the
US
will
run
Venezuela.
>> We
don't
want
to
be
involved
with
uh
having
somebody
else
get
in
and
we
have
the
same
situation
that
we
had
for
the
last
long
period
of
years.
So
we
are
going
to
run
the
country
until
such
time
as
we
can
do
a
safe,
proper
and
judicious
transition.
Eventually,
Trump
is
saying
that
he
will
give
Venezuelan
back,
but
uh
you
know,
this
could
be
years
or
decades,
and
no
one
knows
when.
So,
it
looks
like
overnight
it's
not
just
it
was
regime
change
of
Venezuela,
but
the
US
has
a
new
territory.
It
will
be
run
by
um
you
know,
who
knows,
new
governor,
new
prime
minister,
protector
of
Venezuela.
I'm
not
sure.
But
for
the
foreseeable
future,
uh,
Venezuela
will
be
under
US
control
and
eventually
it
looks
like
there's
going
to
be
more
investment
into
Venezuela
and
there's
going
to
be
more
oil
flowing
out.
So,
this
this
is
a
big
big
big
geopolitical
move
and
it
has
some
winners
and
losers.
The
clear
winners
of
course
are
the
US
oil
companies.
They're
going
to
be
able
to
go
in
and
uh
operate
on
those
resources.
Chevron
was
already
there.
Uh,
it
looks
like
other
people
are
going
to
come
in
as
well.
So
that's
very
good
for
the
US
oil
industry.
It's
going
to
be
very
good
for
inflation
and
the
global
consumer.
If
you
have
Venezuela
there
with
all
this
oil,
but
just
kind
of
not
having
the
infrastructure
to
be
able
to
extract
it.
Now
the
supply
of
oil
is
going
to
go
up.
That's
going
to
mean
down
pressure
on
oil
prices.
Not
immediately,
of
course.
It's
going
to
take
time
to
be
able
to
have
the
facility
set
up,
but
you
know,
in
a
few
years,
you
can
easily
see
the
supply
of
oil
go
up,
oil
prices
uh
go
down.
So
this
is
u
good
for
again
the
war
on
inflation.
If
you
remember
in
January
of
2025,
Trump
actually
openly
said
that
his
plan
to
get
inflation
lower
is
to
get
more
oil
and
you
have
OPEC
pump
more
oil.
You
have
oil
prices
down
a
lot
and
now
it
looks
like
this
is
um
this
is
maybe
another
part
of
that.
You
do
have
clear
losers
as
well.
Now,
of
course,
aside
from
President
Moduro,
who
is
now,
it
seems,
on
a
ship,
uh,
you
know,
it
seems
like
if
you
look
at
a
chart
where
Venezuela
was
selling
its
oil,
a
lot
of
was
going
to
China.
Now,
Venezuela
was
a
staunch
ally
of
China,
of
Russia,
and
of
Iran.
And
so
now
that
team
is
losing
a
big
ally.
Now,
China
is
still
going
to
be
able
to
get
oil
from
Venezuela.
Now,
the
president
was
very
clear
that,
you
know,
we're
going
to
pump
more
oil
and
we're
going
to
sell
it
to
everyone.
So,
China
is
still
going
to
get
more
oil,
but
they
probably
won't
get
it
at
the
same
discounted
price.
Venezuelan
oil
was
sanctioned.
It
really
couldn't
go
to
the
global
market.
And
so,
they
had
to
sell
it
at
a
discount
to
other
people,
similar
to
what
Russia
does,
right?
Russia
oil
was
sanctioned.
They
sell
it
at
a
discount
to
other
countries.
And
so,
uh,
China
was
getting
discounted
oil.
Now,
they're
not
getting
discounted
oil
anymore.
China
was
friends
with
Venezuela.
In
fact,
reports
suggest
that
they
had
a
Chinese
delegation
being
sent
to
Venezuela
just
in
a
few
hours
before
the
operation.
Now,
it
looks
like
they've
lost
a
key
ally
in
Latin
America.
Um,
this
of
course
could
also
point
to
trouble
for
uh
allies
of
uh
President
Maduro,
say
Cuba,
for
example,
longtime
thorn
in
the
side
of
the
US.
You
know,
doesn't
have
any
oil
but
uh
not
friends
with
the
US.
And
of
course,
um,
Secretary
of
State
Marco
Rubio
is
of
Cuban
descent.
And
of
course,
uh,
the
Cuban
community
in
the
US
really
doesn't
like
what's
happening
in
Cuba.
And
so
I
think
he
should
be
a
little
bit
worried.
If
you
are
Iran,
you
could
probably
be
upset
as
well.
You're
losing
another
ally.
But
it
also
tells
you
very
clearly
that
the
president
is
a
man
of
action.
He
says
many
things,
but
he
also
has
done
many
things
as
well.
um
many
things
other
presidents
would
not
have
done
right
directly
strike
Iran
bombs
huge
huge
clampdown
on
illegal
immigration
everywhere
in
the
country
of
course
strikes
on
Venezuela
but
he's
also
said
other
things
that
he
hasn't
done
yet
so
let's
say
that
you
are
the
prime
minister
of
Denmark
who
of
course
controls
Greenland
president
has
said
that
you
know
Greenland
is
very
very
important
to
us
from
a
national
security
standpoint
so
does
that
increase
the
probability
that
you
know
maybe
one
day
Greenland
will
have
to
change
hands
as
well.
Of
course,
the
president
also
made
comments
about
Canada
and
we
we
don't
know
what
will
happen
there.
One
thing
to
note
though
is
that
strategically
speaking,
the
oil
that
Venezuela
pumps
is
heavy
crude.
That's
the
same
stuff
that
Canada
pumps
to
as
well.
And
right
now,
Canada
has
one
captain
consumer,
the
United
States.
And
the
United
States
is
relying
upon
Canadian
heavy
crude
as
well.
That's
what
the
refiners
are
optimized
for.
If
you
have
another
source
of
heavy
crude
come
online
from
Venezuela,
that
really
really
decreases
the
bargaining
power
that
Canadian
oil
companies
have.
And
of
course,
that
is
a
big
problem
from
a
geostrategic
way
for
for
Canada
and
maybe
why
Prime
Minister
Mark
Carney
is
eager
to
greenlight
another
pipeline
so
that
they
have
other
outlets
for
Canadian
oil.
So,
one
other
thing,
of
course,
we
have
to
think
about
is
that
what
other
thing
has
Trump
um
kind
of
obsessed
about
over
and
over
again,
um
that's
lower
interest
rates.
And
as
I
wrote
last
week,
my
blog,
the
market
is
really
not
pricing
in
that
Trump
will
get
his
way.
I
the
market
really
doesn't
seem
to
think
that,
you
know,
prices
interest
rates
the
same
way
they
did
months
ago.
So
they
don't
really
place
probability
on
President
Trump
actually
getting
his
way
and
able
to
lower
interest
rates
even
though
the
president
has
you
know
done
a
lot
of
really
obvious
moves
to
try
to
do
that.
So
I
think
that
continues
to
be
a
significant
mispricing
of
the
market.
So
uh
president
has
a
track
record
of
uh
acting
on
things
that
he
cares
a
lot
about.
So
markets
will
be
exciting
this
next
week.
Guessing
that
you
know
I
since
it
was
so
effortless.
Maybe
not
even
that
big
of
an
impact,
but
you
know,
if
you
have
lower
oil
prices
in
the
future,
maybe
that's
a
little
bit
downward
pressure
on
inflation.
Okay,
the
second
thing
that
I
want
to
talk
about,
of
course,
is
silver.
Now,
last
week
we
talked
about
how
silver
was
absolutely
surging,
was
up
10%
a
week.
Last
Friday,
when
you
do
something
like
that,
it
looks
like
an
obvious
obvious
blowoff
top.
And
earlier
in
the
week,
we
did
see
silver
totally,
totally
implode.
Now,
there
are
two
concrete
drivers
of
this.
One
of
course
uh
is
that
well
actually
one
concrete
driver
of
this
and
another
thing
we'll
talk
about
and
that
is
of
course
higher
margins
from
the
CME.
So
professional
speculators
in
silver
usually
trade
through
futures
and
when
you
trade
through
silver
futures
you're
operating
on
an
regulated
exchange.
Your
counterparty
is
the
exchange.
So
a
standard
future
futures
contract
for
silver
gives
you
control
over
5,000
ounces
of
silver.
So
that's,
you
know,
about
30
uh
$350,000
worth
of
silver.
Now,
in
order
to
have
control
over
a
silver
contract,
you
have
to
put
up
a
little
bit
of
margin
with
the
w
with
the
exchange.
The
reason
for
this
is
that
the
exchange
wants
to
make
sure
that
you
have
money
uh
to
pay
in
case
the
contract
goes
against
you.
So
let's
say
that
you
bought
one
silver
contract
and
then
suddenly
the
price
declines.
How
does
the
exchange
know
that
you
are
able
to
uh
um
you
you
are
able
to
pay
the
exchange
uh
in
the
case
in
case
that
uh
you
know
you
continue
to
lose
money
or
you're
underwater
in
your
contract.
So
the
exchange
collects
a
little
bit
of
margin
uh
just
to
make
sure
that
uh
you
don't
default.
Now
the
amount
of
margin
the
exchange
has
to
connect
collect
is
in
proportion
uh
to
the
size
of
the
market
value
of
the
contract
and
also
to
the
volatility
of
the
contract.
as
silver
prices
went
from
say50
to
$75
in
a
very
volatile
way.
You
know
there
you
need
to
put
down
more
margin
uh
because
from
an
exchange
standpoint
there's
a
higher
probability
that
you
could
have
big
big
volatile
moves
suddenly
leaving
the
exchange
exposed
to
counterparty
risk.
That
is
to
say
you
could
default
if
silver
were
to
suddenly
implode.
So
exchange
very
naturally
raises
margins
and
what
that
means
that
you
have
to
put
up
more
money
to
be
able
to
have
control
over
a
silver
contract.
Now
if
you
look
at
the
margin
hikes
it
looks
like
it
went
from
you
know
20ome,000
to
30
some
thousand.
Uh
when
you
raise
the
margin
some
people
say
you're
a
DGEN
who
has
been
levered
up
uh
with
silver
futures
will
have
to
put
up
more
money
to
be
able
to
maintain
their
position.
Sometimes
they
don't
have
that
much
money
and
so
when
that
happens
they
get
liquidated
and
when
they
get
liquidated
you
know
the
price
of
the
contract
goes
down
maybe
that
also
compels
other
people
to
get
liquidated
as
well.
So
ultimately
it's
kind
of
a
mechanical
thing
where
you
have
u
basically
a
liquidity
squeeze
where
the
really
really
big
dens
are
squeezed
out
and
this
happens
a
lot
if
you
look
at
any
type
of
um
speculation
in
the
1980s
when
you
have
the
Hunts
brothers
squeezing
silver
to
dizzying
heights
the
exchanges
also
continue
to
raise
their
margin
again
this
is
not
necessarily
some
sort
of
conspiracy
or
anything
like
that
it's
just
totally
mechanical
the
exchange
you
is
dealing
with
a
more
volatile
commodity.
It's
trying
to
protect
itself
from
defaults
and
so
it
obviously
has
to
raise
margins.
There's
nothing
uh
nefarious
about
it.
Sometimes
there
is
back
in
the
1980s
uh
they
try
to
um
they
changed
the
rules
so
that
you
can
not
buy
silver,
you
could
only
sell.
And
so
of
course
that's
putting
that
put
a
lot
of
downward
pressure
on
silver
prices
and
did
ultimately
precipitate
a
huge
implosion.
They're
not
doing
that
today.
So
far
by
all
accounts
it's
just
normal
functioning
of
how
an
exchange
works.
And
obviously
when
you
have
an
exchange
hiking
margins
that's
going
to
put
downward
pressure
on
the
prices.
How
much
is
going
to
depend
on
how
levered
it
was.
And
obviously
if
you're
going
up
10%
a
day
that's
a
lot
of
leverage.
And
so
you
also
imploded
10%
a
day.
The
second
big
news
came
out
of
China
and
that
China
is
going
to
more
exercise
more
control
over
how
it
exports
silver.
Now,
China
has
already
been
doing
this
with
all
sorts
of
commodities.
Remember,
they
have
their,
you
know,
control
over
rare
earth
and
so
forth.
Now,
it
seems
like
they're
extending
this
export
control
regime
to
silver.
I
don't
think
this
should
be
a
surprise,
because
China
is
the
largest
manufacturing
power
in
the
world.
and
silver,
it's
not
just
for
speculation,
it's
also
a
key
industrial
input.
And
so
if
you
have
all
these
speculators
in
the
west
kind
of
making
silver
prices
really
high,
that
has
a
real
impact
on
the
Chinese
economy,
Chinese
businesses
and
so
forth,
it
makes
uh
it
makes
basically
things
like
solar
panels
more
expensive.
And
so
if
there
is
a
potential
shortage
or
some
kind
of
weird
speculation,
of
course,
the
Chinese
are
going
to
be
a
bit
more
careful
since
this
is
um
maybe
even
a
national
security
issue.
Now,
China
is
the
second
largest
uh
minor
of
silver,
the
largest
is
Mexico.
So
when
they
put
on
these
expert
controls
on
silver,
so
what
that
means
is
that
in
order
to
sell
expert
silver,
you're
going
to
have
to
have
a
license
from
the
Chinese
authorities.
They're
going
to
have
more
control
over
this.
What
that
means
is
very
clearly
that
outside
of
China
maybe
the
supply
of
silver
is
going
to
be
a
little
bit
less
uh
because
the
Chinese
export
of
silver
is
going
to
be
more
controlled.
Now
the
immediate
impact
of
this
should
be
to
have
a
wedge
in
silver
prices
where
Chinese
silver
prices
are
going
to
be
a
little
bit
lower
and
global
price
of
silver
a
little
bit
higher
since
you
have
less
Chinese
supply.
So
this
is
a
a
bullish
development
for
silver
prices
but
was
not
able
to
overcome
of
course
the
uh
implosion
you
had
from
higher
margin
rates.
Now
there
is
always
a
question
whether
or
not
the
US
or
maybe
other
countries
will
also
declare
silver
to
be
uh
you
know
commodity
of
national
importance
and
then
also
put
on
their
own
bears.
So
that's
something
to
watch
out
as
well.
So
if
you
look
at
silver
prices,
they
classically
follow
this
formation
where
they
kind
of
surge
to
uh
comically
high
levels
and
then
just
implode.
There
is
a
possibility
that
this
is
what's
happening
right
now.
We
could
just
totally
implode.
Uh
but
my
gut
says
that,
you
know,
and
I
hate
saying
this,
that
maybe
there's
something
about
different
this
time.
And
so
I
I
personally
think
that
the
highs
for
silver
are
not
yet
in
for
the
year.
Although
when
you
have
all
this
technical
damage,
you
do
usually
need
to
digest
a
while.
Not
necessarily
a
long
time.
Remember
when
gold
had
that
big
blowoff
blowoff,
it
came
down
a
little
bit,
steadied,
steadied,
and
then
just
recently
made
new
all-time
highs.
All
right,
so
that's
all
I
prepared
for
today.
Again,
this
is
just
year
one
in
the
Trump
administration.
We
have
three
more
years.
Maybe
the
map,
the
global
map
in
a
few
years
will
be
different
than
the
one
today.
All
right,
talk
to
you
guys
next
week.
### 全球地缘政治格局与经济联动
除了委内瑞拉的重大事件，本周全球其他地缘政治热点也涌现出重要动态。在远东地区，中国围绕台湾举行了大规模军事演习，其潜在的封锁能力对台湾经济构成了严峻挑战。日本首相此前对台湾的支持言论激怒了中国，尽管有报道称美国总统特朗普曾建议日方缓和立场，但日本仍坚持对台支持。这一系列事件反映了美国国家安全战略中关于多极世界和势力范围的设想，即美国将主导北美和拉丁美洲，而中国可能在远东地区拥有其势力范围。
在东欧，俄罗斯指责乌克兰策划了针对总统普京的暗杀行动，尽管美国调查认为并非如此，但这一事件无疑加剧了俄乌冲突的紧张局势，并可能为俄罗斯进一步军事升级提供借口。中东地区，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡与特朗普的会晤预示着可能针对伊朗采取军事行动，尽管目标已从阻止核武器转向限制其弹道导弹能力。这些地缘政治的动荡与全球经济紧密相连，尤其是在通胀压力持续的背景下，任何区域冲突的升级都可能对能源供应和全球供应链造成冲击。
Original English
So
I
think
there
are
four
theaters
in
the
world
and
in
each
geopolitical
theater
we
had
some
pretty
big
developments
from
the
far
east
to
Latin
America
to
Europe
to
the
Middle
East.
Starting
with
the
Far
East.
So
earlier
in
the
week,
last
week,
we
had
China
make
pretty
big
military
exercises
all
around
Taiwan.
And
what
they
seem
to
be,
you
know,
kind
of
projecting
is
that
they
could
easily
blockade
Taiwan.
And
if
they
were
to
blockade
Taiwan,
again,
Taiwan
is
an
island,
so
it's
not
self-sufficient
in
many
things
like
oil.
Uh
the
ch
the
Taiwanese
economy
would
easily
crumble
and
um
it
would
be
the
end
of
that
pretty
quickly.
Now
the
broader
context
of
course
is
that
not
too
long
ago
you
had
Prime
Minister
Tekachi
of
Japan
make
supportive
statements
for
Taiwan
that
really
angered
the
Chinese
and
you
know
President
Trump
actually
seemed
to
reportedly
intervene
to
maybe
just
politely
suggest
the
Japanese
prime
minister
to
maybe
moderate
her
stance
a
little
bit.
Although
by
all
reports
uh
Japan
still
stands
in
support
of
Taiwan
in
case
of
potential
military
conflict.
For
context
here,
uh
Taiwan
was
once
a
Japanese
colony.
Many
people
in
Taiwan
remember
that
period
positively
and
look
upon
Japan
in
a
very
positive
light.
But
of
course,
if
you
recall
from
the
United
States's
most
recent
national
security
strategy,
the
US
is
basically
viewing
the
world
as
multipolar
where
every
country
has
your
sphere
of
influence.
Very
clearly
the
United
States
will
have
a
Trump
correlary
to
the
Monroal
doctrine.
Latin
America,
North
America
will
be
under
the
United
States.
And
you
know,
I
think
the
the
implication
of
course
is
that
the
Far
East,
at least
when
it
comes
to
Taiwan,
will
be
under
China
and
maybe
Russia
will
have
Ukraine.
Now,
moving
on
to
Eastern
Europe.
Earlier
in
the
week,
uh
Russia
loudly
complained
that
uh
Ukraine
will
actually
launched
a
very
mass-cale
assassination
attempt
on
President
Putin.
Apparently,
there
was
a
large
fleet
of
Ukrainian
drones
launched
and
Russia
alleges
that
these
drones
were
targeted
towards
where
where
President
Putin
was
and
it
was
an
assassination
account.
Putin
actually
complained
to
Trump
which
then
complained
to
President
Zalinski.
Now,
the
US
it
seems
that
reports
suggest
have
determined
that
this
actually
was
not
an
assassination
attempt
that
maybe
they
were
targeting
other
military
installations
in
in
Russia.
But
at
the
end
of
the
day,
if
Russia
is
claiming
this
and
perceiving
this,
then
again,
that
is
an
escalation
in
the
Russia
Ukraine
war
and
suggests
that
peace
talks
are
not
going
well
and
maybe
it
could
serve
as
a
pretext
for
further
military
escalation
by
the
Russians.
Moving
on
to
the
Middle
East,
also
another
very
interesting
development.
Now,
you
had
Prime
Minister
Benjamin
Netanyahu
of
Israel
basically
just,
you
know,
fly
down
to
Mara
Lago,
hang
out
with
the
president
the
fifth
time.
He's
done
this
this
year.
That's
kind
of
a
record.
And
what
usually
happens,
of
course,
is
that
after
these
discussions,
you
have
some
kind
of
geopolitical
escalation.
Now,
it's
no
secret
what
Prime
Minister
Netanyahu
would
like
is
to
have
more
military
action
on
Iran,
but
of
course,
they
can't
do
that
without
the
support
of
the
United
States.
Last
time
they
attacked
Iran,
Iran
retaliated
with
missiles
and
a
lot
of
those
missiles
were
intercepted
by
US
um
US
support.
And
so
they
really
need
the
US
to
protect
them
to
be
able
to
attack
Iran.
Now
reporting
suggests
that
right
now
what
u
Netanyahu
is
saying
is
that
you
know
Iran
they
have
these
ballistic
missiles.
They
can
attack
Israel.
They
are
a
threat
to
us.
We
got
to
go
and
take
out
that
capability.
Now
notice
now
that
the
goalposts
are
moving.
initially
was
that
Iran
could
never
have
nuclear
weapons
and
so
we
need
to
take
that
out
and
you
know
President
Trump
went
and
bombed
the
nuclear
facilities
in
Iran.
Now
the
standard
is
being
lowered.
It's
not
that
Iran
can
have
nuclear
weapons
is
that
they
can't
have
ballistic
missiles
and
if
uh
the
president
agrees
with
that
lower
standard
then
yes
that
he's
greenlighting
more
military
attacks
in
the
Middle
East.
### 白银市场动荡：保证金飙升与中国出口管制
本周，白银市场经历了剧烈的价格波动，从早些时候的飙升转为大幅下跌。这一“崩盘”现象主要由两个因素驱动。首先是芝加哥商品交易所（CME）提高了白银期货合约的保证金要求。当白银价格剧烈波动时，交易所会提高保证金以规避交易者违约风险。此次保证金的显著提升，迫使大量高杠杆的投机者追加资金或被强制平仓，从而引发了连锁反应，导致价格加速下跌，这是一种典型的市场流动性挤压（liquidity squeeze）现象。
其次，中国宣布将加强对白银出口的管控。作为全球最大的制造国，中国视白银为重要的工业投入品，而非仅仅是投机工具。西方投机者推高白银价格，会直接影响到中国太阳能电池板等产品的生产成本。因此，中国收紧出口管制，要求出口商获得许可，旨在更有效地控制白银供应，这可能导致中国以外的白银供应减少，并推高全球白银价格。尽管这一因素对白银价格构成利好，但其影响被CME保证金提高所带来的技术性抛售所掩盖。
尽管近期白银价格出现技术性损伤，但演讲者认为，从长远来看，白银的上涨趋势尚未结束，其高点可能尚未到来，这与黄金近期创下历史新高的情况有相似之处。然而，市场对特朗普政府降低利率的预期似乎存在显著的误判，这可能导致未来市场出现波动。
Original English
So
we
got
to
talk
about
uh
what
happened
and
what
it
all
means
for
the
economy
and
for
markets.
And
also
we
have
to
talk
a
little
bit
about
silver
as
well.
So
silver
totally
imploded
uh
in
the
beginning
of
the
week.
There
are
some
concrete
causes
for
that
although
it
did
recover
a
little
bit
more.
So
first
though
let's
talk
about
what
happened
in
the
world
of
geopolitics.
Okay,
the
second
thing
that
I
want
to
talk
about,
of
course,
is
silver.
Now,
last
week
we
talked
about
how
silver
was
absolutely
surging,
was
up
10%
a
week.
Last
Friday,
when
you
do
something
like
that,
it
looks
like
an
obvious
obvious
blowoff
top.
And
earlier
in
the
week,
we
did
see
silver
totally,
totally
implode.
Now,
there
are
two
concrete
drivers
of
this.
One
of
course
uh
is
that
well
actually
one
concrete
driver
of
this
and
another
thing
we'll
talk
about
and
that
is
of
course
higher
margins
from
the
CME.
So
professional
speculators
in
silver
usually
trade
through
futures
and
when
you
trade
through
silver
futures
you're
operating
on
an
regulated
exchange.
Your
counterparty
is
the
exchange.
So
a
standard
future
futures
contract
for
silver
gives
you
control
over
5,000
ounces
of
silver.
So
that's,
you
know,
about
30
uh
$350,000
worth
of
silver.
Now,
in
order
to
have
control
over
a
silver
contract,
you
have
to
put
up
a
little
bit
of
margin
with
the
w
with
the
exchange.
The
reason
for
this
is
that
the
exchange
wants
to
make
sure
that
you
have
money
uh
to
pay
in
case
the
contract
goes
against
you.
So
let's
say
that
you
bought
one
silver
contract
and
then
suddenly
the
price
declines.
How
does
the
exchange
know
that
you
are
able
to
uh
um
you
you
are
able
to
pay
the
exchange
uh
in
the
case
in
case
that
uh
you
know
you
continue
to
lose
money
or
you're
underwater
in
your
contract.
So
the
exchange
collects
a
little
bit
of
margin
uh
just
to
make
sure
that
uh
you
don't
default.
Now
the
amount
of
margin
the
exchange
has
to
connect
collect
is
in
proportion
uh
to
the
size
of
the
market
value
of
the
contract
and
also
to
the
volatility
of
the
contract.
as
silver
prices
went
from
say50
to
$75
in
a
very
volatile
way.
You
know
there
you
need
to
put
down
more
margin
uh
because
from
an
exchange
standpoint
there's
a
higher
probability
that
you
could
have
big
big
volatile
moves
suddenly
leaving
the
exchange
exposed
to
counterparty
risk.
That
is
to
say
you
could
default
if
silver
were
to
suddenly
implode.
So
exchange
very
naturally
raises
margins
and
what
that
means
that
you
have
to
put
up
more
money
to
be
able
to
have
control
over
a
silver
contract.
Now
if
you
look
at
the
margin
hikes
it
looks
like
it
went
from
you
know
20ome,000
to
30
some
thousand.
Uh
when
you
raise
the
margin
some
people
say
you're
a
DGEN
who
has
been
levered
up
uh
with
silver
futures
will
have
to
put
up
more
money
to
be
able
to
maintain
their
position.
Sometimes
they
don't
have
that
much
money
and
so
when
that
happens
they
get
liquidated
and
when
they
get
liquidated
you
know
the
price
of
the
contract
goes
down
maybe
that
also
compels
other
people
to
get
liquidated
as
well.
So
ultimately
it's
kind
of
a
mechanical
thing
where
you
have
u
basically
a
liquidity
squeeze
where
the
really
really
big
dens
are
squeezed
out
and
this
happens
a
lot
if
you
look
at
any
type
of
um
speculation
in
the
1980s
when
you
have
the
Hunts
brothers
squeezing
silver
to
dizzying
heights
the
exchanges
also
continue
to
raise
their
margin
again
this
is
not
necessarily
some
sort
of
conspiracy
or
anything
like
that
it's
just
totally
mechanical
the
exchange
you
is
dealing
with
a
more
volatile
commodity.
It's
trying
to
protect
itself
from
defaults
and
so
it
obviously
has
to
raise
margins.
There's
nothing
uh
nefarious
about
it.
Sometimes
there
is
back
in
the
1980s
uh
they
try
to
um
they
changed
the
rules
so
that
you
can
not
buy
silver,
you
could
only
sell.
And
so
of
course
that's
putting
that
put
a
lot
of
downward
pressure
on
silver
prices
and
did
ultimately
precipitate
a
huge
implosion.
They're
not
doing
that
today.
So
far
by
all
accounts
it's
just
normal
functioning
of
how
an
exchange
works.
And
obviously
when
you
have
an
exchange
hiking
margins
that's
going
to
put
downward
pressure
on
the
prices.
How
much
is
going
to
depend
on
how
levered
it
was.
And
obviously
if
you're
going
up
10%
a
day
that's
a
lot
of
leverage.
And
so
you
also
imploded
10%
a
day.
The
second
big
news
came
out
of
China
and
that
China
is
going
to
more
exercise
more
control
over
how
it
exports
silver.
Now,
China
has
already
been
doing
this
with
all
sorts
of
commodities.
Remember,
they
have
their,
you
know,
control
over
rare
earth
and
so
forth.
Now,
it
seems
like
they're
extending
this
export
control
regime
to
silver.
I
don't
think
this
should
be
a
surprise,
because
China
is
the
largest
manufacturing
power
in
the
world.
and
silver,
it's
not
just
for
speculation,
it's
also
a
key
industrial
input.
And
so
if
you
have
all
these
speculators
in
the
west
kind
of
making
silver
prices
really
high,
that
has
a
real
impact
on
the
Chinese
economy,
Chinese
businesses
and
so
forth,
it
makes
uh
it
makes
basically
things
like
solar
panels
more
expensive.
And
so
if
there
is
a
potential
shortage
or
some
kind
of
weird
speculation,
of
course,
the
Chinese
are
going
to
be
a
bit
more
careful
since
this
is
um
maybe
even
a
national
security
issue.
Now,
China
is
the
second
largest
uh
minor
of
silver,
the
largest
is
Mexico.
So
when
they
put
on
these
expert
controls
on
silver,
so
what
that
means
is
that
in
order
to
sell
expert
silver,
you're
going
to
have
to
have
a
license
from
the
Chinese
authorities.
They're
going
to
have
more
control
over
this.
What
that
means
is
very
clearly
that
outside
of
China
maybe
the
supply
of
silver
is
going
to
be
a
little
bit
less
uh
because
the
Chinese
export
of
silver
is
going
to
be
more
controlled.
Now
the
immediate
impact
of
this
should
be
to
have
a
wedge
in
silver
prices
where
Chinese
silver
prices
are
going
to
be
a
little
bit
lower
and
global
price
of
silver
a
little
bit
higher
since
you
have
less
Chinese
supply.
So
this
is
a
a
bullish
development
for
silver
prices
but
was
not
able
to
overcome
of
course
the
uh
implosion
you
had
from
higher
margin
rates.
Now
there
is
always
a
question
whether
or
not
the
US
or
maybe
other
countries
will
also
declare
silver
to
be
uh
you
know
commodity
of
national
importance
and
then
also
put
on
their
own
bears.
So
that's
something
to
watch
out
as
well.
So
if
you
look
at
silver
prices,
they
classically
follow
this
formation
where
they
kind
of
surge
to
uh
comically
high
levels
and
then
just
implode.
There
is
a
possibility
that
this
is
what's
happening
right
now.
We
could
just
totally
implode.
Uh
but
my
gut
says
that,
you
know,
and
I
hate
saying
this,
that
maybe
there's
something
about
different
this
time.
And
so
I
I
personally
think
that
the
highs
for
silver
are
not
yet
in
for
the
year.
Although
when
you
have
all
this
technical
damage,
you
do
usually
need
to
digest
a
while.
Not
necessarily
a
long
time.
Remember
when
gold
had
that
big
blowoff
blowoff,
it
came
down
a
little
bit,
steadied,
steadied,
and
then
just
recently
made
new
all-time
highs.
All
right,
so
that's
all
I
prepared
for
today.
Again,
this
is
just
year
one
in
the
Trump
administration.
We
have
three
more
years.
Maybe
the
map,
the
global
map
in
a
few
years
will
be
different
than
the
one
today.
All
right,
talk
to
you
guys
next
week.
### 经济政策焦点与市场预期
特朗普政府一直以来都高度关注降低利率，并将其视为刺激经济和对抗通胀的关键手段。然而，市场似乎并未充分定价特朗普实现其利率目标的可能性，对未来利率走势的预期与总统的意愿存在显著差异。这种市场定价的偏差可能预示着未来市场将出现波动。
此外，特朗普政府将“对抗通胀”视为核心任务之一。通过增加石油供应，特别是利用委内瑞拉丰富的石油资源，被认为是降低油价、进而抑制通胀的重要策略。虽然短期内油价不会立即大幅下降，但从长远来看，增加全球石油供应有望为抑制通胀提供动力。这些经济政策的走向，将是未来市场关注的焦点。
Original English
Now
the
Trump
administration
told
the
entire
world
that
Latin
America
belongs
to
us.
So,
we
are
going
to
call
the
shots
here.
Now,
earlier
in
the
week,
uh
the
president
surprised
the
world
by
revealing
that
the
CIA
actually
carried
covert
operations
on
Venezuelan
soil.
Now,
everyone
knew
that
the
US
had
a
Navy
presence
right
outside
of
Venezuela,
that
they
had
been
blowing
up
Venezuelan
boats,
but
until
earlier
in
the
week,
they
had
not
uh
done
anything
on
Venezuelan
soil.
So,
that
was
a
very
clear
escalation.
A
CIA
bombing
facilities
in
Venezuelan
ports.
This
morning,
it
was
revealed
that
around
2:00
a.m.,
US
forces
basically
flew
in
uh
to
where
President
Maduro
of
Venezuela
was
staying.
uh
basically
kidnapped
him
and
his
wife,
put
him
on
a
ship,
the
USS
Euima,
and
that
ship
is
now
on
route
to
New
York
where
uh
President
Madura
will
face
the
US
courts.
Now,
throughout
this
operation,
uh
it
was
it
was
only
a
few
hours.
There
were
reportedly
zero
US
casualties.
One
US
helicopter
was
hit,
but
that
US
copter
continued
to
fly
when
it's
able
to
return
uh
to
to
its
uh
to
the
ships.
So
this
was
an
amazing
amazingly
precise
attack
and
amazingly
successful.
Now
by
orchestrating
this
it
all
by
guarantees
that
the
Maduro
regime
has
collapsed
and
that
there
will
be
regime
change
in
Venezuela.
So,
uh,
this
is
definitely
not
in
line
with
the
America
first
ethos
that
President
Trump
often
campaigned
on
where
the
US
would
not,
um,
you
know,
intervene
in
foreign
wars,
nation
building
and
all
that.
But
it
does
fall
under
the
Trump
coralary
of
having
more
power
over
the
Latin
America.
Now,
why
does
Trump
doing
this?
I
think
some
some
context
is
helpful
here.
So,
Venezuela,
if
you
look
on
a
map,
is
actually
a
pretty
large
country.
uh
it's
in
uh
South
America.
It's
the
land
mass
is
about
say
20
30%
larger
than
Texas
and
has
a
population
of
about
30
million
about
the
same
population
as
the
state
of
Texas.
Venezuela
of
course
is
most
known
for
having
a
lot
of
oil.
According
to
studies
it
has
the
most
uh
the
largest
oil
reproven
oil
reserves
in
the
entire
world.
So
it
has
the
potential
to
be
an
oil
superpower.
However,
if
you
look
at
its
output
data
over
the
past
decade,
you'll
notice
that
Venezuela
is
actually
outputting
much
less
oil
today
than
it
did
a
decade
ago.
So,
that
decline
in
oil
output
largely
has
to
do
with
just
the
tremendous
tremendous
mismanagement
of
the
Venezuelan
economy.
If
you
look
at
a
chart
of
Venezuelan
GDP,
you
know,
a
decade
ago,
things
were
actually
going
really
well.
Now,
oil
prices
were
going
up.
uh
Venezuela
was
pumping
a
lot
of
oil
and
the
country
the
people
were
getting
much
wealthier.
Now
that
all
ran
into
problems
when
the
oil
price
of
oil
collapsed
and
then
you
had
new
change
in
regime
a
more
left-wing
regime
came
to
power
in
Caracus
and
they
did
not
do
a
very
good
job
and
what
you
see
is
the
complete
implosion
of
the
Venezuelan
economy.
According
to
the
United
Nations,
about
20%
of
Venezuelans
actually
fled
the
country.
Now,
that's
like
7
million
people.
Uh,
viral
videos
at
the
time
would
show
that
many
Venezuelans
were
basically
starving.
You
can
see
them
throwing
rocks
at
cows,
trying
to
kill
the
cow
to
eat
them.
It
was
very
much
a
humanitarian
disaster.
Now,
you
had
Venezuelan
refugees
flood
the
entire
world.
You
have
Venezuelan
refugees
in
Chile,
um,
in
Colombia,
Mexico,
and
of
course
in
the
United
States.
Uh
this
was
a
tremendous
tremendous
catastrophe.
You
had
a
country
that
was
doing
on
the
upswing
just
just
totally
destroyed
and
of
course
the
people
Venezuelans
did
not
like
that
and
ideally
there
would
be
a
mechanism
for
the
people
to
change
course
to
have
a
new
government.
Of
course
that
was
naturally
through
the
ballot
box.
Now
Venezuela
did
recently
a
few
years
ago
have
an
election
by
all
accounts.
President
Maduro
lost
that
election
in
a
big
way
for
obvious
reasons.
Um
but
uh
you
know
he
just
decided
that
he
didn't
want
to
leave
and
so
basically
became
a
de
facto
dictator
of
Venezuela.
So
this
is
a
guy
who
did
a
terrible
job
ruined
the
lives
of
millions
of
people
ruined
his
country
and
it's
just
not
very
popular.
However
though
and
of
course
he's
uh
not
friends
with
the
Trump
administration
is
friends
with
Russia,
Iran
and
China.
basically
friends
with
people
who
are
not
uh
with
team
Trump,
team
USA.
So
it
seems
like
the
motivation
for
this
uh
move
is
twofold.
One
of
course
is
to
strengthen
US
influence
in
uh
Latin
America
and
secondly
of
course
is
for
oil.
Now,
in
his
uh
in
his
press
conference
after
his
president
is
is
totally
blunt.
You
know,
it's
it's
not
like
President
Bush
going
into
Iraq
and
then
not
so
much
telling
you
about
the
oil,
although
a
lot
of
US
companies
having
big
oil
contracts.
It's
that
the
US
president
is
telling
you
today,
President
Trump
is
telling
you
today
that
Venezuela
has
lots
of
oil
and
the
US
is
going
to
have
control
over
it
and
it's
this
uh
operation
in
Venezuela
is
not
going
to
cost
taxpayer
money
because
uh
the
US
is
going
to
get
paid
through
oil.
So,
it's
very
open
about
it.
The
US
would
like
to
have
more
control
over
Venezuelan
resources.
Now,
a
coup
attempt
has
always
been
telegraphed.
Again,
you
had
that
military
flotillaa
outside
of
Venezuela.
You
also
had
the
US
intelligence
operations
smuggle
out
Venezuelan
opposition
leader
Machado
smuggled
her
out
into
um
to
Sweden
where
she
could
get
her,
you
know,
Nobel
Peace
Prize,
have
more
international
legitimacy.
But
I
think
the
US
has
basically
changed
its
mind
on
that.
She
was,
you
know,
probably
a
plan
B
or
plan
A
or
plan
C
or
something
like
that.
But
maybe
looking
at
how
successful
the
operation
was
today,
the
president
very
openly
told
everyone
that
actually
the
US
will
run
Venezuela.
>> We
don't
want
to
be
involved
with
uh
having
somebody
else
get
in
and
we
have
the
same
situation
that
we
had
for
the
last
long
period
of
years.
So
we
are
going
to
run
the
country
until
such
time
as
we
can
do
a
safe,
proper
and
judicious
transition.
Eventually,
Trump
is
saying
that
he
will
give
Venezuelan
back,
but
uh
you
know,
this
could
be
years
or
decades,
and
no
one
knows
when.
So,
it
looks
like
overnight
it's
not
just
it
was
regime
change
of
Venezuela,
but
the
US
has
a
new
territory.
It
will
be
run
by
um
you
know,
who
knows,
new
governor,
new
prime
minister,
protector
of
Venezuela.
I'm
not
sure.
But
for
the
foreseeable
future,
uh,
Venezuela
will
be
under
US
control
and
eventually
it
looks
like
there's
going
to
be
more
investment
into
Venezuela
and
there's
going
to
be
more
oil
flowing
out.
So,
this
this
is
a
big
big
big
geopolitical
move
and
it
has
some
winners
and
losers.
The
clear
winners
of
course
are
the
US
oil
companies.
They're
going
to
be
able
to
go
in
and
uh
operate
on
those
resources.
Chevron
was
already
there.
Uh,
it
looks
like
other
people
are
going
to
come
in
as
well.
So
that's
very
good
for
the
US
oil
industry.
It's
going
to
be
very
good
for
inflation
and
the
global
consumer.
If
you
have
Venezuela
there
with
all
this
oil,
but
just
kind
of
not
having
the
infrastructure
to
be
able
to
extract
it.
Now
the
supply
of
oil
is
going
to
go
up.
That's
going
to
mean
down
pressure
on
oil
prices.
Not
immediately,
of
course.
It's
going
to
take
time
to
be
able
to
have
the
facility
set
up,
but
you
know,
in
a
few
years,
you
can
easily
see
the
supply
of
oil
go
up,
oil
prices
uh
go
down.
So
this
is
u
good
for
again
the
war
on
inflation.
If
you
remember
in
January
of
2025,
Trump
actually
openly
said
that
his
plan
to
get
inflation
lower
is
to
get
more
oil
and
you
have
OPEC
pump
more
oil.
You
have
oil
prices
down
a
lot
and
now
it
looks
like
this
is
um
this
is
maybe
another
part
of
that.
You
do
have
clear
losers
as
well.
Now,
of
course,
aside
from
President
Moduro,
who
is
now,
it
seems,
on
a
ship,
uh,
you
know,
it
seems
like
if
you
look
at
a
chart
where
Venezuela
was
selling
its
oil,
a
lot
of
was
going
to
China.
Now,
Venezuela
was
a
staunch
ally
of
China,
of
Russia,
and
of
Iran.
And
so
now
that
team
is
losing
a
big
ally.
Now,
China
is
still
going
to
be
able
to
get
oil
from
Venezuela.
Now,
the
president
was
very
clear
that,
you
know,
we're
going
to
pump
more
oil
and
we're
going
to
sell
it
to
everyone.
So,
China
is
still
going
to
get
more
oil,
but
they
probably
won't
get
it
at
the
same
discounted
price.
Venezuelan
oil
was
sanctioned.
It
really
couldn't
go
to
the
global
market.
And
so,
they
had
to
sell
it
at
a
discount
to
other
people,
similar
to
what
Russia
does,
right?
Russia
oil
was
sanctioned.
They
sell
it
at
a
discount
to
other
countries.
And
so,
uh,
China
was
getting
discounted
oil.
Now,
they're
not
getting
discounted
oil
anymore.
China
was
friends
with
Venezuela.
In
fact,
reports
suggest
that
they
had
a
Chinese
delegation
being
sent
to
Venezuela
just
in
a
few
hours
before
the
operation.
Now,
it
looks
like
they've
lost
a
key
ally
in
Latin
America.
Um,
this
of
course
could
also
point
to
trouble
for
uh
allies
of
uh
President
Maduro,
say
Cuba,
for
example,
longtime
thorn
in
the
side
of
the
US.
You
know,
doesn't
have
any
oil
but
uh
not
friends
with
the
US.
And
of
course,
um,
Secretary
of
State
Marco
Rubio
is
of
Cuban
descent.
And
of
course,
uh,
the
Cuban
community
in
the
US
really
doesn't
like
what's
happening
in
Cuba.
And
so
I
think
he
should
be
a
little
bit
worried.
If
you
are
Iran,
you
could
probably
be
upset
as
well.
You're
losing
another
ally.
But
it
also
tells
you
very
clearly
that
the
president
is
a
man
of
action.
He
says
many
things,
but
he
also
has
done
many
things
as
well.
um
many
things
other
presidents
would
not
have
done
right
directly
strike
Iran
bombs
huge
huge
clampdown
on
illegal
immigration
everywhere
in
the
country
of
course
strikes
on
Venezuela
but
he's
also
said
other
things
that
he
hasn't
done
yet
so
let's
say
that
you
are
the
prime
minister
of
Denmark
who
of
course
controls
Greenland
president
has
said
that
you
know
Greenland
is
very
very
important
to
us
from
a
national
security
standpoint
so
does
that
increase
the
probability
that
you
know
maybe
one
day
Greenland
will
have
to
change
hands
as
well.
Of
course,
the
president
also
made
comments
about
Canada
and
we
we
don't
know
what
will
happen
there.
One
thing
to
note
though
is
that
strategically
speaking,
the
oil
that
Venezuela
pumps
is
heavy
crude.
That's
the
same
stuff
that
Canada
pumps
to
as
well.
And
right
now,
Canada
has
one
captain
consumer,
the
United
States.
And
the
United
States
is
relying
upon
Canadian
heavy
crude
as
well.
That's
what
the
refiners
are
optimized
for.
If
you
have
another
source
of
heavy
crude
come
online
from
Venezuela,
that
really
really
decreases
the
bargaining
power
that
Canadian
oil
companies
have.
And
of
course,
that
is
a
big
problem
from
a
geostrategic
way
for
for
Canada
and
maybe
why
Prime
Minister
Mark
Carney
is
eager
to
greenlight
another
pipeline
so
that
they
have
other
outlets
for
Canadian
oil.
So,
one
other
thing,
of
course,
we
have
to
think
about
is
that
what
other
thing
has
Trump
um
kind
of
obsessed
about
over
and
over
again,
um
that's
lower
interest
rates.
And
as
I
wrote
last
week,
my
blog,
the
market
is
really
not
pricing
in
that
Trump
will
get
his
way.
I
the
market
really
doesn't
seem
to
think
that,
you
know,
prices
interest
rates
the
same
way
they
did
months
ago.
So
they
don't
really
place
probability
on
President
Trump
actually
getting
his
way
and
able
to
lower
interest
rates
even
though
the
president
has
you
know
done
a
lot
of
really
obvious
moves
to
try
to
do
that.
So
I
think
that
continues
to
be
a
significant
mispricing
of
the
market.
So
uh
president
has
a
track
record
of
uh
acting
on
things
that
he
cares
a
lot
about.
So
markets
will
be
exciting
this
next
week.
Guessing
that
you
know
I
since
it
was
so
effortless.
Maybe
not
even
that
big
of
an
impact,
but
you
know,
if
you
have
lower
oil
prices
in
the
future,
maybe
that's
a
little
bit
downward
pressure
on
inflation.