---
author: TED
date: '2026-10-09'
guest: ''
layout: post.njk
source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsstlwuE5XY
speaker: TED
tags:
  - maritime-shipping
  - energy-transition
  - clean-steel
  - climate-finance
  - green-ammonia
title: 撬动全球气候的关键杠杆：海运脱碳与东亚供应链重构
summary: 海运若作为一个国家，将是全球第六大温室气体排放源。面对气候危机，我们必须寻找能产生涟漪效应的战略支点。全球造船业高度集中在东亚，尤其是韩国。通过切断化石能源运输船的融资、推动绿色航运走廊与氢能炼钢，海运业正从肮脏贸易的管道转变为清洁贸易的核心驱动力。
insight: ''
draft: true
series: ''
category: tech-trends
area: tech-engineering
project: []
people: []
companies_orgs:
  - Solutions for Our Climate
products_models: []
media_books: []
status: evergreen
---
### 气候破局的系统性杠杆：聚焦被忽视的海运枢纽

在应对气候变化的当下，企业与政府在承诺上的摇摆以及令人沮丧的新闻头条，难免让人感到前路漫漫。但现实全貌并非如此悲观——向基于气候解决方案的经济转型已然拉开序幕，这不仅关乎环境保护，更因为清洁替代方案正变得更加有利可图、实用且经济可负担。然而，我们不可能同时解决所有的气候难题，必须采取极具针对性的战略，精准找出那些能够解锁其他系统、牵一发而动全身的核心节点。在所有经济系统中，**海运**（Maritime Shipping）正是那个战略地位极高、影响力巨大却长期被严重忽视的支点。

如果将全球海运行业视作一个国家，它将是**全球第六大温室气体排放源**。当前的大多数远洋船舶不仅依靠化石燃料驱动，本身是用化石能源制造的，更是全球化石燃料跨国运输的绝对载体。具体而言，海运在气候危机中构成了三重维度的负面影响：
* **运输货物的碳足迹**：原油与天然气占据了全球海上贸易总量的约三分之一。其中约一半的天然气以**液化天然气**（LNG: Liquified Natural Gas）形式通过专用船只运输，且过去十年间全球 LNG 贸易量实现翻倍。
* **船舶运行的燃料消耗**：绝大多数船只依然燃烧重质燃料油，或者日益转向同样会释放二氧化碳和**甲烷**（Methane: 一种加速全球变暖的强效温室气体）的液化天然气。
* **船体材料的生产排放**：制造船身所需的大量钢材主要通过煤炭冶炼生产，而全球**钢铁生产**（Steel Production）占据了全球总碳排放的 8%。

因此，海运从来不是气候议题的边缘角落，而是整个气候战役中最关键的隐形杠杆。一旦这一杠杆被有效撬动，整个全球能源转型都将迎来质的加速。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

For those of us who are worried about climate change, it's no doubt challenging times. It feels like the end of the light of the tunnel gets further as companies and governments pull back. And I get it. It's hard to feel motivated with headlines like these. But that is not the full story. In reality, a shift towards a climate solution-based economy is already underway. Not just because it protects the climate, but because it's becoming more profitable, more practical and more affordable. Despite all the setbacks, we will solve this problem. However, we have to be strategic. We cannot solve every climate problem at once. We have to identify the systems that can unlock many others. The places where one smart move can create ripple effects across the entire economy. One of the most strategic, most powerful, but also most overlooked of those systems is shipping.

If shipping was a country, it would be the sixth largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world. Many of these ships aren't just powered by fossil fuels, they're built with fossil fuels, and they transport fossil fuels. Maritime shipping is a climate problem on three fronts. One, for the cargo it carries. Crude oil and gas account for roughly one third of maritime trade. Around half of natural gas is shipped in a liquefied form called LNG, and LNG trade has doubled during the past decade. Two, because of the fuel ships burn. Most ships still burn heavy fuel oils or increasingly, LNG, which releases carbon dioxide and methane, a dirty superpollutant that accelerates climate change and air pollution. Three, because of the steel ships are made of. Most steel is made using dirty coal. Steel production is responsible for another 8% of global emissions. So shipping is not a side issue in the climate crisis. It is one of the biggest hidden levers in the entire climate fight, a system if pulled the right way, which can unlock a faster energy transition.

</details>

### 东亚造船供应链：全球资本与政治博弈的关键咽喉

虽然海洋本身广袤分散，但远洋船舶的制造命脉却高度集中，其全球供应链的交汇点就在**东亚**。特别是**韩国**，在现代远洋造船工业、造船特种钢材生产以及背后的公共金融资本供给中占据着绝对垄断地位。乌克兰危机与中东冲突让世界深切体会到化石能源的高波动性与脆弱性，当前东亚各经济体正站在历史的抉择关口：是继续向化石能源基础设施注入资金，还是全面转向**海上风电安装船**、**绿氨运输船**以及采用**低碳绿钢**制造的新型船舶？清洁方案不会仅仅因为存在就自动扩大规模，只有当政策、金融与监管协同形成合力，使清洁产业具备经济吸引力时，规模化才会真正发生。非营利组织 **Solutions for Our Climate** 正专注于推动这种系统性转变，正如其此前成功推动东亚煤炭巨头停止煤电融资一样，该团队正在海运领域复刻这一路径：

* **暴露碳排与金融风险**：全球 LNG 跨国贸易完全依赖海运船只。单艘大型 LNG 运输船造价高达 2.5 亿美元，建造周期达三年，一旦下水将锁定数十年的化石能源排放。全球高达 70% 的 LNG 船只集中在韩国建造，仅 2022 年一年，韩国官方背景的政策性银行就为这类船舶提供了逾 100 亿美元的融资支持，核心技术更是被少数垄断企业牢牢把持。因此，这不仅是商业订单问题，更是一个集中度极高的政治与金融瓶颈。
* **阻断化石资本并重新导流**：如果斩断对高碳船舶的信贷与融资供给，就能从根本上遏制全球 LNG 产能的无序扩张。行动的核心诉求是推动商业银行与亚洲信贷机构制定排他性授信政策，将新增 LNG 运力列为投资禁区。
* **重构市场规则与清洁需求**：制造低碳钢材与生产绿色航运替代燃料（如绿氢与绿氨）的技术已经具备，制约发展的核心是供应链完善程度与有效市场需求。通过在政策规则、基础设施与专项金融上的施压，逐步构建跨港口的**绿色航运走廊**（Green Shipping Corridors），未来富集可再生能源的区域将彻底取代传统炼油厂，成为全球航运清洁燃料的供应中枢；在炼钢环节，**绿氢直接还原铁**技术也将彻底终结焦煤冶炼时代。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

It's tempting to think of oceans as diffused and decentralized, but when it comes to ships, their supply chains converge in one place: East Asia. South Korea in particular dominates global shipbuilding, steel production for ships and the public finance behind them. And we are now at a critical moment, with Asia as a key leverage point. The world has experienced how volatile fossil fuels are with the war in Ukraine. Again, we are experiencing the same with the war in the Middle East. Right now, East Asian economies are making a decision. Do we keep funding fossil fuels or pivot towards offshore wind installation vessels, green ammonia tankers or ships made with clean steel? Because clean options don't scale just because they exist, they scale when policy, finance and regulation align to make clean attractive.

My organization, Solutions for Our Climate, works to do just that. And we're no beginner here. We've done it before with coal. From behind-the-scenes international negotiations to grassroots communities, from courtrooms to hilarious videos portraying dismal climate facts, we know what message to put in front of who, how and when. Our work actually contributed to ending coal financing by the East Asian coal giants. And now we're ready to take on shipping the same way. First, we expose emissions, policy gaps, financial risks. Take LNG transportation. Global LNG trade depends entirely on ships. Each LNG carrier ship costs 250 million dollars, takes three years to build and locks in decades of emissions. The system is surprisingly concentrated. 70 percent of these ships are built in one country, South Korea. In 2022 alone, in one year, South Korean government banks provided more than 10 billion dollars of financing for these ships. The technologies around these ships are monopolized by a handful of companies. So this isn't just a business story. It's a political and financial choke point. Second, we redirect capital and governments away from fossil expansion. If we cut the financing of these ships, we will limit LNG expansion. Our aim is simple. Make LNG a no-investment zone. We're asking private banks to end the financing of these ships. We're pushing Asian lenders to adopt exclusion policies. Third, we build markets, demands and rules for clean alternatives. The technology for clean steel or green shipping fuels is already here. What's missing is the supply chains and demand to meet it. Our push for finance, regulations and infrastructure will change this. That means building clean fuel supply chains, creating new demand through green shipping corridors between ports. Over time, renewable-rich regions will replace oil refineries as shipping fuel production hubs. We apply the same approach for clean steel. Green hydrogen will replace the role coal served in steelmaking.

</details>

### 从肮脏通道到净零引擎：以战略纵深撬动 22 亿吨减排

这场针对航运重工业体系的系统性重塑并非停留在愿景阶段，实质性的产业与金融转向已经发生。目前，已有四家欧洲商业银行在各方推动下撤回了对莫桑比克特大 LNG 项目的融资承诺；多项新建燃煤炼钢项目的投资被叫停；基于氢能冶炼的新型钢铁项目则成功争取到了多方金融支持。在此势头之上，由全球慈善资助网络支持的 **Navigate to Clean** 倡议正式启动，旨在联合营销传播者、外交官、法律专家与海事专业人士，将整个航运行业从全球化石燃料运输的输送带，彻底逆转为驱动零碳贸易的动力源。

这绝非在既有边际上的修修补补，而是对全球经济深层引擎的彻底动员。只要找准战略支点并施加足够杠杆，到 2032 年前，全球每年有望在航运及关联产业链中消除高达 **22 亿吨碳排放**（2.2 Gigatons），这一数字几乎相当于整个欧盟一整年的碳排放总量。在气候博弈这场复杂的战略棋局中，唯有直击要害的系统性战术，才能赢得最终的净零胜利。

<details>
<summary>Original English</summary>

This isn't just aspirational. The work is already underway. We've already convinced four European banks to exit from a major LNG project in Mozambique. We've blocked new coal-based steel investments. We've secured financial support for hydrogen-based steel mills. We're doing the work and building the momentum. And now we will supercharge it through Navigate to Clean, a new initiative to clean up maritime shipping. With the generous support of the community of Audacious donors, we will turn shipping from a conduit of dirty trade to a driver of clean trade.

We are a team of marketers, diplomats, lawyers, shipping experts. We're a regional organization with global reach. We know the system and how to move it. We've done it with coal and we can do it with shipping. It is difficult times, yes, but with the right strategy and leverage, we can eliminate up to 2.2 gigatons of emissions per year by 2032. That's almost one year of emissions of the entire European Union. This is not a marginal fix. This is not tinkering at the edges. This is what it looks like to move a hidden engine of the global economy and the climate movement with it. We're playing chess, not checkers, and we're here to win. Thank you.

</details>