--- author: The Diary Of A CEO date: '2026-09-14' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5o3tgr-AgI speaker: The Diary Of A CEO tags: - civilization-collapse - petrodollar-system - economic-framework - spiritual-growth - human-experience title: 世界走向崩溃的预言：从石油美元体系到文明倒退的预测分析 summary: 文章探讨了作者基于历史模式和全球供应链建立的预测框架，核心观点包括：如果再次发生类似9/11袭击将打击美国金融基础设施；预测了特定政治和经济事件（如特定人物的总统职位、特定选举结果）以及对文明倒退的担忧。文章深入分析了石油美元体系的诞生及其对全球经济的基石作用，并讨论了人工智能对人类体验的潜在威胁，最终强调了精神成长和无条件的爱的核心使命。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: philosophy-wisdom area: society-thinking project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: [] products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 世界正在走向崩溃与文明倒退的预言 **Professor Chang**: 我想很多人并不喜欢我说的这些话。我现在是世界上最具争议的人物之一。但我正在试图让每个人都做好准备。斯蒂芬（Stephen），我今天想要向你解释的，就是为什么这个世界正在走向崩溃。因为在深入研究了历史模式与全球供应链之后，我现在已经掌握并建立了一套预测未来的分析框架。今天我带来了围绕“9/11”结构展开的三、四、五个关键预测。
Original English **Professor Chang**: I think there are a lot of people who do not like what I'm saying. I am one of the most polarizing figures in the world right now. But I'm trying to prepare everyone. And what I want to explain to you today, Stephen, is why the world is collapsing. Because having studied patterns of history and global supply chains, I now recognize and have a framework to predict the future. And I brought to you three, four, five predictions structured around 9/11.
**Stephen**: 那么你的预测究竟是什么？我一直迫不及待想知道。
Original English **Stephen**: So what are your predictions? I've been dying to know.
**Professor Chang**: 我的第一个预测是：如果再次发生类似“9/11”的袭击，那将会是对美国金融基础设施的打击。想象一下，有一天你打开 iPhone 想要买一杯咖啡，却发现银行账户里的钱全部被清空了，而且银行根本不知道什么时候、或者需要多久才能把资金追回。我认为，正是这一点让美国人最为脆弱，因此也最容易受到精神创伤。
Original English **Professor Chang**: My first prediction, if there is another 9/11 attack, it will be an attack on the US financial infrastructure. Imagine one day you open your iPhone and you're looking to buy a coffee and all the money in your bank account has been wiped out and they don't know when or how long it will take them to retrieve it. I believe that's what makes Americans most vulnerable and therefore the most easily traumatized.
**Stephen**: 第二个预测是什么？
Original English **Stephen**: What's prediction number two?
**Professor Chang**: 是莱昂内尔·梅西（Lionel Messi）将会成为阿根廷总统。
Original English **Professor Chang**: Is that Lionel Messi will become president of Argentina.
**Stephen**: 哇，我完全没想到会是这个。还有，你认为特朗普会获得第三个总统任期吗？
Original English **Stephen**: Oh wow. I wasn't expecting that. And also, do you think Trump is going to have a third term?
**Professor Chang**: 我们来打个友好的小赌吧，就赌 100 美元：特朗普会获得第三个任期。纽约市将会遭受围困。这就是第三个预测。
Original English **Professor Chang**: Let's take a friendly bet and say $100. Trump gets a third term. There'll be a siege to New York City. Prediction three.
**Stephen**: 我的第三个疑问是，你真的确定吗？你不认为美国真的会那样做吗？
Original English **Stephen**: My third prediction is that are you sure? You don't think that the US would actually do that?
**Professor Chang**: 我完全明白这里面的很多观点听起来会极其悲观，但我们所处的时代不仅充满了战争，而且正在经历文明的倒退。我们基本上已经触及了技术进步的巅峰。
Original English **Professor Chang**: Well, I understand a lot of this is going to be extremely pessimistic, but we are living in a time of not just war, but also the regression of civilization. We've basically hit the height of technological advancement.
**Stephen**: 你在这里用的“崩溃”这个词分量很重。
Original English **Stephen**: The word collapse you use there is a strong word.
**Professor Chang**: 是的。我非常确信，我们正在目睹文明的崩溃。我们过去在电视上所看到的那些灾难画面，如今正在降临到我们的现实生活中，而这个世界的时间本质上已经不多了。我将为你清晰而直观地勾勒出一幅即将到来的图景。
Original English **Professor Chang**: Yes. I am positive that we are seeing the collapse of civilization. All the stuff that we might have seen on television, it is coming to us in our lives and the world is essentially running out of time and I will paint a clear and simple picture of what is about to come.
**Stephen**: 那么必须满足什么条件，才能让这些灾难性的事情完全不发生呢？
Original English **Stephen**: What would have to be the case for none of these sort of catastrophic things to take place?
**Professor Chang**: 唯一让我抱有希望的事情是——
Original English **Professor Chang**: Well, the only that gives me hope is—
**Stephen**: 在本期节目正式开始之前，我想请大家帮个小忙。两个月前，观看我们频道的观众中还有 61% 的人没有订阅。现在这个比例已经降到了 58%。我的目标是达到 50%。所以，如果你喜欢我们在频道上制作的任何视频，如果你喜欢这个频道，能否请你帮我一个快速的小忙，点击一下订阅按钮？这对频道的帮助超出你的想象；而且频道规模越大，我们就能在嘉宾阵容和制作水准上投入更多。谢谢大家，请继续收看本期节目。 张教授（Professor Chang），目前你脑海中最关注的事情是什么？你的情绪状态让我感觉你心头沉淀了许多事。究竟是什么？
Original English **Stephen**: Before this episode starts, I have a small favor to ask you. Two months ago, 61% of the people that watch this channel weren't subscribed. We're now down to 58%. My goal is 50%. So, if you've ever liked any of the videos we've made on this channel, if you like this channel, can you do me a small quick favor and hit the subscribe button? It helps this channel more than you know, and the bigger the channel gets, the more we can invest in the guests and the production. Thank you and enjoy this episode. Professor Chang, what is front of mind for you at the moment? Your energy is giving me some things on my mind. What is that?
### 石油美元体系的诞生与全球经济基石 **Professor Chang**: 我认为我们正生活在一个世界走向崩溃的时代。因此，斯蒂芬，我今天想向你解释的是：我们是如何走到今天这个世界的，以及为什么它正在崩溃。 首先我想向你解释的是石油美元体系（Petrodollar System），它是整个全球经济的基础。 让我们回到 1945 年。那是第二次世界大战结束的时候，美国处于绝对的主导地位。美国需要为在二战中被摧毁的欧洲和日本制造工业产品。于是美国提出：我们会借给你们美元，以便你们购买我们将出口给你们的商品；但你们必须承诺用黄金来偿还我们。 随后，美国逐渐变得自满，开始挥霍本不该支出的资金，从一个债权国变成了债务国。到了 1971 年，理查德·尼克松（Richard Nixon）宣布美元不再与黄金挂钩。 随之而来的问题是：如果美元不再挂钩黄金，那么美元的价值究竟由什么来支撑？于是尼克松必须重新为美元创造需求。在经历了所谓的“尼克松冲击”（Nixon shock）之后，发生了三件大事。 第一件事就是确立了石油美元。沙特阿拉伯及中东其他国家同意其石油仅以美元进行结算。因此，如果你想要购买石油和能源，你就必须持有美元。 到了 70 年代末、80 年代初，中国也做出了相同的选择：如果你想要我们廉价的工业制成品，你就必须用美元支付。 80 年代中期，又签订了所谓的《广场协议》（Plaza Accord），日本同意将其全部储蓄用于购买美国国债。
Original English **Professor Chang**: I think that we are living in a time when the world is collapsing. And so what I want to explain to you today, Stephen, is how we got to the world that we are in and why it is collapsing. So first thing I want to explain to you is the petrodollar system which is the basis for the global economy. So let's go back to the year 1945 and this is the end of World War II and the United States is dominant. The United States will manufacture goods for Europe and for Japan which were destroyed in World War II. So what the United States said is we will lend you the US dollars in order to purchase the goods that we will export to you but you have to promise to pay us back in gold. And the United States became complacent. They were spending money they shouldn't have been spending. United States went from a credit nation to a debtor nation. So in the year 1971, Richard Nixon said that the US dollar would no longer be pegged to the gold. And so the question now was if the US dollar is no longer pegged to gold, then what is the value of the US dollar? So Richard Nixon had to create demand for the US dollar. And so three things happened after something called the Nixon shock. 1971 shock. Okay. So the first was a creation of a petrodollar. So Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Middle East agreed to sell their oil only in US dollars. So if you want to buy oil, energy, you need US dollars. Late 70s, early 80s, China said the same thing. If you want our cheap manufactured goods, you have to pay in US dollars. Mid-80s was something called a Plaza Accord where Japan agreed to take all its savings and buy US treasuries.
**Stephen**: 所以实质上，他们买下的是来自美国的一纸承诺。所有这一切都是建立在信用承诺的基础之上的，对吧？
Original English **Stephen**: So it's essentially they're buying a promise from the US. All this is based on promises, right?
**Professor Chang**: 美元本身就是一种契约，是一项承诺。中国承诺向你提供工业制成品，沙特阿拉伯承诺向你提供石油。正是这套体系——石油美元体系——塑造了我们今天所生活的世界。请让我来解释其中的原因。
Original English **Professor Chang**: The US dollar is a contract. It's a promise. China promises to give you manufactured goods and Saudi Arabia promises to give you oil. This system, the petrodollar system, created the world that we live in today. So, let me explain why.
### 半导体供应链与全球化分工 **Professor Chang**: 好的。你看，这是一块半导体。它是所有技术、所有计算机的底层基石。在半导体中，有三种最为关键的元素：硅（Silicon）、镓（Gallium）和锗（Germanium）。当然还存在许多其他元素，但这三种最为核心，它们结合在一起，使得半导体能够实现近乎不可思议的技术突破。例如，精确制导导弹、卫星通信等，全都是基于这三种元素的协同运作。 我们之所以能够整合这三种元素，完全是因为现有的全球化分工体系。全球大约 60% 到 70% 的硅来自中国；70% 的镓来自中国；全球 90% 的锗也来自中国。 而半导体要最终成型，其运转流程是这样的：美国（主要是加利福尼亚州的英伟达或苹果等公司）设计极其先进的半导体芯片，用来驱动 iPhone、运行视频游戏。接着，美国将这些芯片设计图纸发送到中国台湾和马来西亚进行芯片代工制造。 荷兰和日本则制造用于印刷和光刻这些半导体的精密机台。比如荷兰一家名为 ASML（阿斯麦）的公司，他们制造的单台光刻机价值高达 4 亿美元。 随后，这些光刻机连同芯片设计图纸被运往中国台湾（主要是台湾，也包括马来西亚）来制造芯片。制造完成的芯片再被运往中国大陆，装配到各类电器和电子产品中。 因此，当你看到这样一枚半导体时，你看到的绝不仅仅是一块金属和塑料。你所看到的，实际上是整个世界紧密交汇融合在一起的结晶。
Original English **Professor Chang**: All right. So, this is a semiconductor. All right? And it's a basis of all technology of all computer. And there are three critical elements in a semiconductor. Silicon, they are gallium and they are germanium. Okay. There are many more elements but these are the three most critical and these three together allow semiconductors to achieve almost impossible technology. For example, precision missiles, satellite communication are all based on these three elements working together. Why we have these three elements in place is because of this global system. Because silicon is mainly manufactured in China about 60-70% of the world silicon comes from China. 70% of gallium comes from China. 90% of the world's germanium comes from China. Now for semiconductors to work the process is this. The United States mainly in California, Nvidia or Apple, they will design very advanced semiconductor chips to power the iPhone to power video games. Then United States will send this chip design over to Taiwan and Malaysia for the manufacturer of these chips. The Netherlands and Japan will create machines to print out these semiconductors. So a company in the Netherlands called ASML, they manufacture lithography machines that are worth $400 million each. Then these lithography machines and the chip design go to Taiwan, primarily Taiwan, but also Malaysia as well in order to manufacture these chips and then these chips are then sent to China to be put into appliances. So when you see this semiconductor, you're not just seeing a piece of metal and plastic. You're really seeing the world converging together.
### 技术进步公式与文明倒退的逻辑 **Professor Chang**: 所以我希望你记住这个公式，它将帮助我们解释世界是如何运转的。这个公式非常简单： **技术进步 ∝ 专业化分工 × 全球化** 这就是核心公式。所有技术进步的前提，都在于有更多国家能够实现高度专业化分工，并且这些国家之间能够彼此自由贸易。而让这一切成为可能的全球贸易，依托于两大支柱：第一当然是美元；第二项、也是最重要的一项，就是美国的军事霸权。
Original English **Professor Chang**: So I want you to remember this formula and this will help us explain how the world works. This formula is very simple. Technological progress is correlated with specialization times globalization. This is the formula. Okay. So it's very simple. All technological progress is premised on more countries being able to specialize and these countries being able to trade freely with each other. And what makes this all possible is global trade that is supported by two things. The first of course is the US dollar. The second thing that's most important is the US military hegemony.
**Stephen**: 所谓的霸权是指——
Original English **Stephen**: Hegemony meaning—
**Professor Chang**: 意思是没有同等量级的竞争对手，没有任何力量能够挑战美国对海洋控制权的绝对垄断。
Original English **Professor Chang**: Meaning there are no peer competitors. There is no one who can challenge the United States in control of the seas.
**Stephen**: 所以你现在正切入核心论点，解释你为什么认为世界正在崩溃——因为你开篇提出的核心主张就是世界正在崩溃。
Original English **Stephen**: So you're coming now to the point of why you think, because the claim at the top was that the world is collapsing.
**Professor Chang**: 没错。我提起这一切，是因为我们需要真正理解技术创新的本质。如果技术创新等于“专业化分工”乘以“全球化”，那么我们当前所处的时代，就不仅充斥着战争，更伴随着文明的倒退。 换句话说，我今天向你提出的论点是：我们基本上已经到达了技术进步的最高峰、也就是极限。我们无法再往前推进了，因为为了推动技术继续向前发展，你需要更高程度的专业化分工，需要更深入的全球化。但我们现在看到的是，伊朗的局势与冲突将引发一系列连锁反应，迫使所有国家转向泛化发展。 因此，你将看到专业化分工的瓦解，各国将变得更加民族主义化，他们不得不去构建自给自足的本地供应链。这意味着全球化程度将大幅倒退，从而导致技术进步必然走向衰退。
Original English **Professor Chang**: Exactly. I bring this all up because we need to appreciate what technological innovation is. If technological innovation is specialization times globalization, then we are living in a time of not just war but also the regression of civilization. So in other words my argument to you today is we've basically hit the apex, the height of technological advancement. We cannot go any further because in order for technology to progress, you need greater specialization and you need greater globalization. But what we're seeing right now is this war in Iran, it will cause a chain of events that will force all nations to become much more general. Okay? So you will see a decline in specialization and they'll become much more nationalistic. They will need to create self-sufficient supply chains. So you will see a decline in globalization and therefore technology progress will have to decline.
**Stephen**: 不过，你使用的“崩溃”这个词依然非常沉重。
Original English **Stephen**: The word collapse you use though is a strong word.
**Professor Chang**: 是的。
Original English **Professor Chang**: Yes.
**Stephen**: 这确实就是你想表达的确切用词吗？
Original English **Stephen**: Is that the word you meant?
**Professor Chang**: 这正是我要表达的意思。我们经历的不是第二次世界大战，我们经历的也不是简单的国际秩序转移。在接下来的 20 年里，我们将亲历整个——
Original English **Professor Chang**: That's exactly the word I meant. We are living not through World War II. We are not living through a shifting of the global order. We will live through over the next 20 years the collapse of—
### 文明崩溃的定义与青铜时代崩溃的历史类比 **主持人**：文明本身的崩溃？
Original English **Host**: The collapse of civilization itself.
**嘉宾**：是的。
Original English **Guest**: Yes.
**主持人**：你确定吗？
Original English **Host**: Are you sure?
**嘉宾**：我非常肯定，我们正在目睹文明的崩溃。
Original English **Guest**: I am positive that we are seeing the collapse of civilization.
**主持人**：请给我对“文明崩溃”下一个具体的定义。因为人们听到这个词可能会推测：“哦，你知道，这意味着美元可能不会像以前那么强势了”，或者他们可能会说：“好吧，我们的创新步伐可能不会那么快了”，或者“我不知道物价是否会上涨”。但你所说的却是“文明的崩溃”。
Original English **Host**: Give me some definition around the collapse of civilization because people could infer that as, "Oh, you know, the dollar is not going to be as strong," or they could say, "Okay, we're not going to innovate as much," or "I don't know if your prices are going to go up." But the collapse of civilization.
**嘉宾**：是的。让我们回顾一下第二次世界大战。在第二次世界大战期间，如果你生活在欧洲或亚洲，那真的感觉就像是世界末日。数千万人死于那场战争。但在同一时期，出现了一个崛起的新兴超级大国——美利坚合众国。因此，在第二次世界大战结束时，美国是如此强大，以至于它能够建立起一套全新的世界秩序，并且从根本上资助和捍卫这种被称为“美利坚治世”（Pax Americana）的新世界秩序。而现在，我们正在目睹“美利坚治世”走向它的最后篇章。
Original English **Guest**: Yes. So, let's go back to World War II. In World War II, if you lived in Europe or Asia, it really seemed like the end of the world. Tens of millions of people died in that war. But at the same time, you had a superpower that was emergent: the United States of America. So at the end of World War II, America was so powerful that it was able at the end of World War II to create a new world order and basically finance and defend this new world order called Pax Americana. And we are seeing the last days of Pax Americana.
**嘉宾**：然后你可能会问自己：好吧，那就让中国崛起，或者也许俄罗斯会崛起，或者也许以色列会崛起并取代“美利坚治世”。不幸的是，根据历史规律，处于衰落之中的系统和走向下坡路的帝国绝不会心甘情愿、平稳地退出历史舞台。
Original English **Guest**: And then you ask yourself, well, then let China emerge, or maybe Russia will emerge, or maybe Israel will emerge to replace Pax Americana. And unfortunately, what we know is that systems in decline, empires in decline do not go willingly.
**嘉宾**：因此，我在此使用的历史类比是“晚期青铜时代崩溃”（Bronze Age Collapse）。因为青铜时代与我们历史上的这个时期非常相似，当时整个世界也是高度全球化的——因为为了制造青铜，你既需要铜也需要锡，而这两种矿产分布在世界完全不同的各个地区，正是这种资源分布促成了当时的全球化整合。
Original English **Guest**: So the historical analogy I would use is the Bronze Age collapse because the Bronze Age was very similar to this period in our history when the entire world was globalized, because in order to make bronze you needed both copper and tin, and these places were found in different places of the world and that allowed for global integration.
**嘉宾**：然而，随着时间的推移，这种全球整合最终导致了巨大的贫富差距、债务危机以及社会的两极分化。所以当那个系统最终崩溃时，整个已知的世界都随之瓦解。因此我认为，与我们今天面临的处境最接近的历史类比就是青铜时代崩溃。
Original English **Guest**: But because of global integration over time, that led to massive inequality, debt, and polarization. And so when the system collapsed, the entire world collapsed. So I would argue the closest historical analogy that we have to today is a Bronze Age collapse.
### 青铜时代崩溃的多米诺效应与现代类比 **主持人**：在青铜时代崩溃期间人们的生活是怎样的？青铜时代崩溃前与青铜时代崩溃后有什么不同？
Original English **Host**: What was life like in the Bronze Age collapse, or how was it different pre-Bronze Age collapse versus post-Bronze Age collapse?
**嘉宾**：在青铜时代崩溃期间，发生了一连串完美的连环危机，最终导致了系统性的全面崩溃。首先是天气模式和气候的剧烈变化，这导致了饥荒，尤其是在欧洲地区。当出现严重饥荒且人们处于饥饿状态时，人们会做什么？他们开始迁徙。他们迁徙到有粮食供应的地区，而这些地区主要是安纳托利亚（Anatolia）和埃及。
Original English **Guest**: So during the Bronze collapse, what happened was there was a perfect series of crises that caused systematic collapse. The first was change in weather patterns—climate changed, which led to famine primarily in Europe. We have famine and people are starving. What do people do? They migrate. They migrate to areas that have food, and this place is primarily going to be Anatolia and Egypt.
**嘉宾**：大量涌入的移民彻底压垮了埃及和安纳托利亚原有的社会与治理体系，进而引发了多米诺骨牌般的连锁级联效应，使得整个已知世界的既有秩序荡然无存。这些流民群体在历史上被称为“海上民族”（Sea Peoples），他们摧毁了传统的社会阶层和权威统治。一旦这一切发生，文明最根本的基础要素便随之消失殆尽。
Original English **Guest**: These migrants overwhelm the systems of Egypt and Anatolia, and this would cause a cascading effect where the entire world lost order. These migrants were called the Sea Peoples, and they were destroying traditional hierarchies and authorities. And once that happened, then the very fundamental elements of civilization disappear.
### 中东冲突的扩张与四大什叶派势力的联动态势 **嘉宾**：如果我们将这个历史类比套用到今天，我来为你描绘一个可能发生的情景剧本。好的，现在我们看到中东地区的这场战争正在不断向外扩大，卷入越来越多的国家。正如你可能知道的，自从我们上次交流以来，伊朗的所有代理人势力基本上都已被卷入了这场战争。这其中包括控制着也门部分地区的胡塞武装组织。
Original English **Guest**: So if we apply this analogy to today, then I'm going to paint for you a scenario of what might happen. All right. So we have this war in the Middle East that is only expanding. It's bringing in more and more countries. So, as you may know, since we last spoke, basically all of Iran's proxies have been brought into the war. This includes the Houthis, which occupies this part of Yemen.
**主持人**：所以，胡塞武装是一支亲伊朗的军事武装力量。
Original English **Host**: So, the Houthis are a group of military that are in favor of Iran.
**嘉宾**：胡塞武装是也门的一个族群部落，而也门是一个按部落划分结构的国家。关于胡塞武装，首先需要了解的是他们常年生活在崇山峻岭之中，因此想要彻底清除或击垮胡塞武装几乎是不可能的。沙特阿拉伯曾为此苦战了5年，最终毫无成效。关于胡塞武装的第二点是，他们属于什叶派部落群体。
Original English **Guest**: The Houthis are an ethnic group in Yemen. And Yemen is a country that is divided according to tribes. The thing about the Houthis is, first of all, they live in the mountains. So it's almost impossible to dislodge the Houthis. Saudi Arabia tried for 5 years. It didn't work. The other thing about the Houthis is they are a Shia tribe people.
**嘉宾**：穆斯林群体主要分为什叶派穆斯林和逊尼派穆斯林。全球绝大多数穆斯林都是逊尼派，大约占全球穆斯林总人口的90%；而什叶派大约只占10%。因此，正因为他们是少数派，什叶派往往比逊尼派表现得更加狂热和激进。历史上一直如此，他们极其推崇殉道主义精神。换句话说，胡塞武装会战斗到最后一人，他们毫不畏惧死亡。
Original English **Guest**: Now they're Shia Muslim and they're Sunni Muslim. The vast majority of Muslim in the world are Sunni, about 90% of the entire global Muslim population. The Shia are about 10%. And as a result, because they're the minority, the Shia are much more fanatical than the Sunni. And this has always been historically true. They believe in martyrdom. So in other words, the Houthis will fight to the death. They're not afraid of death.
**嘉宾**：关于胡塞武装，我们需要认识到的第三个关键点是，他们控制着被称为曼德海峡（Bab el-Mandeb Strait）的极其关键的海运咽喉要道，这里是通往红海的必经之路，全球大量的海上贸易都必须经由红海运输。我们知道，伊朗此前已经封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，而沙特阿拉伯将石油运往东亚和南亚最便捷、成本最低的途径就是海运走红海。随着该咽喉受阻，沙特阿拉伯实际上无法顺利运输其石油出口。
Original English **Guest**: And the third thing about the Houthis that we need to appreciate is they control this critical choke point called the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This is the Red Sea. So a lot of trade has to go through the Red Sea. Now what we know is Iran has already closed off the Strait of Hormuz, and the easiest and cheapest way for Saudi Arabia to get its oil to East Asia and South Asia is by the sea. So Saudi Arabia cannot actually transport its oil.
**嘉宾**：这是目前卷入这场战争的第一股势力——胡塞武装。接着是黎巴嫩的真主党（Hezbollah），他们目前正在与以色列交战。真主党同样是一支什叶派组织，因此他们同样极具狂热性与死战精神。此外，还有伊拉克的什叶派民兵武装，他们基本上构成了各自独立的军事力量。因此，这四股力量全部被卷入了这场战争：伊朗本土力量、也门的胡塞武装、黎巴嫩的真主党，以及伊拉克的什叶派民兵武装。
Original English **Guest**: Okay. So that's the first group that is now involved in this war: Houthis. Then you have Hezbollah, which is in Lebanon right here. And they are now fighting Israel. Hezbollah is also a Shia group. So they are also very fanatical. And then you also have Iraq, the Shia militias that are basically their own independent militaries. So all four have been brought into the war. You have Iran, you have the Houthis, you have Hezbollah, you have the Shia militia in Iraq.
### 与2003年伊拉克战争的本质区别与去中心化代理人网络 **嘉宾**：为什么这一点如此重要？因为他们的地理分布横跨了整个中东地区。因此，我们现在看到的是战争的全面外溢与扩大。随着时间的推移，可能发生的演变是：越来越多的国家为了保护自身利益而不得不被卷入这场战火之中。
Original English **Guest**: Why is this important? Because they span the entire Middle East. And so we are now seeing expansion of the war, and over time what might happen is more and more nations have to be brought into the war to protect their own interests.
**主持人**：这与过去的冲突有什么不同呢？你知道，我是伴随着伊拉克战争长大的，中东一直充斥着各种冲突。那里似乎总有战火在蔓延，在我的童年记忆里，中东总是在某个地方以某种形式发生交火。但最终伊拉克实现了某种平静，战事趋于平息，伊斯兰国（ISIS）被斩首摧毁等等，战乱似乎只是在各地之间稍微转移徘徊而已。
Original English **Host**: How is this different from, you know, I grew up with this Iraq war and there was lots of conflict in the Middle East. There was always fighting going on, and it feels like it's been a function of my childhood is that the Middle East are always fighting in some capacity somewhere. And you know, eventually there's a peace in Iraq and the war kind of stops and ISIS is decapitated or whatever, and it just kind of moves around a little bit.
**嘉宾**：问得非常好。但今天正在发生的事情与2003年有着根本性的不同。在2003年，美军进入伊拉克是为了对萨达姆·侯赛因及其政权实施“斩首行动”。那相对容易做到，因为当时萨达姆政权在民众中并不怎么得人心。而且，美军特别擅长打“震慑与威慑”（Shock and Awe）这种常规突击军事战术。
Original English **Guest**: Yeah, great question. But what's happening today is very different from 2003. 2003, United States went in to decapitate Saddam Hussein and his government. And that was easy to do because you had a government that was not very popular amongst the people. So, America specializes in shock and awe military tactics.
**嘉宾**：而今天的问题在于，你面对的是四个截然不同的独立群体：伊朗的伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）、也门的胡塞武装、黎巴嫩的真主党，以及伊拉克的什叶派民兵。他们是高度去中心化的组织。他们极其狂热，并且共享同一种终末论宗教世界观与信仰架构。
Original English **Guest**: The problem today is you have four different groups. You have the IRGC in Iran. You have the Houthi in Yemen. You have Hezbollah in Lebanon. You have the Shia militia in Iraq. They are decentralized. They are fanatical and they share a similar eschatology. They share a similar religious framework.
**嘉宾**：因此我们深知，美国军队并不擅长对付打游击战的叛乱武装。我们从阿富汗以及整个区域战事的结局就能清楚看到这一点。这些就是人们常说的“无休止的狂热战争”（Forever Wars），美国在过去20多年里花费了数万亿美元试图剿灭游击叛乱武装，最终却以惨败告终。正因为这四个组织既能协同作战又是去中心化的，这意味着这场战争随着时间推移只会不断升级扩散。
Original English **Guest**: And as a result, what we know is the United States military is not very good at fighting guerrilla insurgents. We know because of what happened in Afghanistan as well as Iran. These two are what is often referred to as forever wars where the United States spent trillions of dollars over 20 years to try to squash insurgents and they failed miserably. So because these four groups are coordinating but they're decentralized, this means that this war can only expand over time.
### 《麦加协议》防务同盟与大国地缘博弈的介入 **嘉宾**：现在，沙特阿拉伯感到了来自胡塞武装的巨大安全威胁。因此，沙特阿拉伯最近所采取的行动是签署了所谓的《麦加协议》（Mecca Accords），缔约方包括土耳其和巴基斯坦。如此一来，土耳其、巴基斯坦和沙特阿拉伯三国现在建立了共同防御义务，必须在遭受袭击时相互救援。在我看来，在这三个国家中，沙特阿拉伯很可能是第一个针对胡塞武装激活这一共同防御条约的国家。
Original English **Guest**: Now Saudi Arabia feels threatened by the Houthis. So what Saudi Arabia has done is most recently it's signed something called the Mecca Accords: Turkey and Pakistan. So Turkey and Pakistan and Saudi Arabia now must come to each other's defense. And it seems to me of these three countries, Saudi Arabia will be the first to invoke this mutual defense pact against the Houthis.
**嘉宾**：因此你可以预见这样一种局面：巴基斯坦、土耳其和沙特阿拉伯被迫全面参战，试图彻底铲除胡塞武装。但我们都知道，踞守在崇山峻岭隐蔽据点中的胡塞武装几乎坚不可摧。所以这场战事注定只会进一步扩大。而胡塞武装作为回应，可以动手彻底摧毁沙特阿拉伯的能源基础设施。胡塞武装拥有弹道导弹和无人机，而沙特阿拉伯就像是一片巨大的汽油湖，随时可能被胡塞武装引爆或点燃。
Original English **Guest**: So you can see a situation where Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia is brought into war to try to dislodge the Houthis. But we know that the Houthis in a mountain retreat are almost invincible. So this war can only expand. And the Houthis in response what they can do is destroy the energy infrastructure of Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have ballistic missiles. They have drones. And Saudi Arabia is this giant lake of gasoline ready to be blown up or lit up by the Houthis at any time.
**主持人**：你知道，在2000年代初，有基地组织（al-Qaeda），有伊斯兰国（ISIS），当时也依然有真主党和哈马斯。那么现在的局面到底有什么不同呢？因为过去也一直存在着大量的军事武装激进团体。
Original English **Host**: You know, back in the early 2000s, there was the al-Qaeda, there was ISIS, there was, you know, there was still Hezbollah in Hamas. So, how is this different? Because there was lots of military militant groups.
**嘉宾**：很好的问题。现在的核心不同在于，这些组织之间存在着高度紧密的实质性协同行动。在过去，基地组织和伊斯兰国都是各自为战、相互独立的。但现在这三大代理人组织——包括也门的胡塞武装、黎巴嫩的真主党以及伊拉克的什叶派民兵——他们全部统一向伊朗的伊斯兰革命卫队汇报和协同。
Original English **Guest**: Great question. Why this is different is there is active coordination amongst these groups. So al-Qaeda, ISIS, they were working separately. But there are three proxies: you have the Houthis, you have the Hezbollah in Lebanon, you have the Shia militia, they all report back to the IRGC in Iran.
**嘉宾**：更关键、极其重要的一点在于：中国和俄罗斯在这场冲突中都在坚定支持伊朗。中国正在通过“一带一路”倡议向伊朗提供有力支持，基本上就是通过这一陆运与物流通道持续向伊朗输送各类物资商品……
Original English **Guest**: And here's the kicker. This is really important. Both China and Russia are supporting Iran in this conflict. China is supporting Iran through the Belt and Road Initiative, basically transporting goods to Iran through this...
### 石油美元体系与全球供应链的脆弱循环 **教授**：……走廊，而俄罗斯则通过里海对伊朗提供全方位支持。因此，在理论层面上，伊朗完全有能力无限期地将这场战争打下去。好的，这是我们必须清醒认识到的第一点——目前已经形成了一个极为明确的同盟体系，以确保伊朗及其代理人势力能够在这场战争中顽强支撑并长期维系。 我们必须深刻理解的另一件至关重要的事情是：中东是整个石油美元体系的核心与枢纽。海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）国家开采出的数以亿计的桶装原油，正是从这里源源不断地被运往印度、巴基斯坦、中国和日本。 随后发生的链条是：东亚地区接收了这些原油能源。嗯，你能把那些镜像小人偶放到日本的位置吗？
Original English **Professor**: ...corridor and Russia is supporting Iran through the Caspian Sea. As a result, Iran in theory could fight this war indefinitely. Okay, that's one thing that we have to appreciate. There's a clear alliance in place to make sure that Iran and its proxies can withstand this war. The other thing that's really important for us to appreciate is like the Middle East, it is the heart and center of the petrodollar system. It takes all these barrels of oil in the GCC countries and transports them to India, Pakistan, China, Japan. Okay. And what then happens is East Asia takes these barrels of oil energy. Um, could you put the mirror brothers in Japan?
**主持人**：你让我放到日本位置上的这些小人偶代表的是什么？
Original English **Host**: What are these little figurines you're asking me to put in Japan?
**教授**：这代表着日本对全球经济所作出的贡献。日本从中东进口能源，并将其转化为制成品，也就是供全世界消费的消费类电子产品与工业商品。所有这些交易均以美元进行结算；随后，中国、日本以及海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）成员国，都会将其多余的外汇储蓄重新投资于美国。 这种资本回流机制使美国得以摆脱单纯的底层制造，将全部资源聚焦于前沿创新，进而打造出像纽约市这样的超级都市。纽约市也是一个高度专业化的区域，因为它的本质就是全球金融中心。 这就是所谓的石油美元循环体系。正如你所看到的，整个体系完全建立在自由贸易畅通无阻的前提之上。然而，一旦原油运输中断，接下来的连锁反应就是：中国和日本将再也无法生产出用于出口的工业制成品，而美国也将彻底失去所有这些循环回流的美元资本。 因此，美国国债的三大买家——本质上也就是美国经济乃至整个人工智能（AI）泡沫的三大核心资助方，正是日本、海湾合作委员会国家与中国。一旦这根链条被斩断，我们将目睹一场级联崩塌式的财富蒸发与盗窃效应，整个系统或许在短短几个月内就会彻底瓦解。
Original English **Professor**: So, this represents Japan's contribution to the global economy. So, it takes energy from the Middle East and turns them into manufactured products, consumer electronic products for the world to consume. It makes these in US dollars and China, Japan and the GCC all invest their excess savings in the United States which allows United States to focus on innovation to create places like New York City. New York City is also a very specialized area because it basically is a financial center of the world. Okay. So all this is a petrodollar system. As you can see, the system is dependent on free trade. But once the oil stops flowing, then what happens is China, Japan are no longer able to make the manufactured goods they need to export and United States loses all these recycled US dollars. So the three biggest buyers of US treasuries basically the three biggest financiers of the US economy basically the AI bubble are Japan, the GCC and China. So we will see a cascading effect of theft where maybe in a few months' time the system collapses.
### 青铜时代崩溃与现代西方社会的“幸存者偏差” **主持人**：教授，你知道吗？我得说句掏心窝子的大实话——大家可以见仁见智，但这确实是我的真实想法——大家之所以很难相信这个世界真的会走向瓦解、很难相信这会重演当年的“青铜时代崩溃”，是有原因的。 在你上次提到青铜时代崩溃之后，我专门去查阅了相关资料。我查到的文献是这么写的：“晚期青铜时代崩溃是一场发生在公元前1200年至公元前1150年左右、波及东地中海地区的迅速、剧烈且广泛的社会结构大解体。在崩溃发生之前，该区域处于高度全球化的状态。像古埃及等主要超级大国之间，通过紧密的穿梭外交、王室联姻以及错综复杂的跨国贸易网络深度交织在一起。然而，在短短50年的时间跨度内，东地中海地区几乎所有重要城市均遭到毁灭性破坏，其中许多城邦甚至再也未能重建。” 我稍后会在屏幕上展示一张呈现这一全面瓦解过程的历史地图。但我不得不坦白：作为一个34岁的人，我这一生可以说一直生活在无忧无虑的优渥环境中。
Original English **Host**: Do you know what professor? One of the reasons why I think it's quite hard for—and I'm going to be completely honest. People can take this as they take it, but it's just me being honest. One of the reasons why it's quite hard to believe that, you know, the world is going to collapse and that this is going to be like the Bronze Age collapse. I was actually reading about the Bronze Age collapse after you mentioned it. And what I pulled up here says, "The late Bronze Age collapse was a rapid, violent, and widespread societal breakdown that occurred in the Eastern Mediterranean between approximately 1,200 and 1,150 B.CE. Before the collapse, the region was heavily globalized. Major superpowers like the Egyptians, etc., were deeply interconnected through diplomacy, royal marriages, and complex international trade networks. But within a span of just 50 years, almost every significant city in the Eastern Mediterranean was destroyed and many were never rebuilt." And there's a map which I'll throw up on the screen which shows this breakdown. Here's my honesty. As a 34 year old, I have lived a very charmed life.
**教授**：优渥的生活。
Original English **Professor**: Charmed life.
**主持人**：是的。尤其是联系到人类历史以及历史上曾经发生过的那些灾难来看。 所以，当我们听到“社会将会分崩离析”、“文明即将全面瓦解”这些论断时，我们这代人根本找不到任何切身的参照物。作为Z世代和千禧一代，我们的父母乃至祖父母可能还经历过20世纪40年代的第二次世界大战等重大历史震荡，从而保留着相关的记忆参照；但我们这一代人对此完全缺乏直接体验。因此在我们听来，这一切似乎都显得极其遥远，大家总觉得“这种灭顶之灾绝不可能降临在我们头上”。
Original English **Host**: Yeah. As it relates to history and the things that happened in history. So when we hear these things that you know the society will break down, there'll be civil collapse, we don't really have a reference point as like Gen Z's and millennials really. Our parents and their parents they have you know reference points from World War II etc. in the 1940s etc. but we don't really have them. So it seems all to be quite you know that can't happen to us.
**教授**：你说得完全没错。我认为核心症结在于，整个现代世界的构建逻辑，本身就是为了维系西方发达国家民众的特权地位。 我经常举的一个例子就是：你刚才说我们一直生活在优渥太平的温室里，但如果你生活在伊拉克或者阿富汗这样的地方，你的生命里绝不可能有任何所谓的“岁月静好”。因为美国无端发兵对这些国家发动战争、实施打击，彻底摧毁了当地社会赖以维系的基础设施。时至今日，伊拉克和阿富汗依然深陷于政治暴力、战乱不休以及政治暗杀的泥潭之中。 因此，如果你是一个在伊拉克、阿富汗甚至非洲许多战乱地区长大的孩子，你一生都从未体验过和平、稳定与繁荣究竟是什么滋味。 这个世界的贫富与安全不平等是极其残酷而刺眼的。我们身处西方的人群享有了极大的特权，被严密地庇护在温室之中，免受外部世界绝大多数动荡与混乱的冲击。事实上，美利坚帝国体系的构建初衷，就是确保本国民众永远不必承受其他国家人民所经历的苦难与人间惨剧。 而我真正想强调的是：这套维系西方安宁的美利坚帝国体系正在加速走向瓦解，而且没有任何力量能够阻止它的倾覆。这意味着，所有我们过去仅仅在电视新闻里看到的战乱与动荡，都即将实实在在地闯入我们的现实生活，我们必须对此保持高度清醒与警惕。
Original English **Professor**: Yeah, you're absolutely right. And I think a lot of the issue is the world has been constructed in a way to maintain the privileges of the western populations. An example I use is you say that we've lived a charmed life. Well, if you lived in Iraq, Afghanistan, these places, you do not live a charmed life because United States came and attacked you for no particular reason and they destroyed the very infrastructure of your society. Even today, Iraq and Afghanistan are engulfed in political violence and war and political assassinations. And so, you've never known if you were a child in Iraq or Afghanistan and even in Africa, you've never known peace, stability, and prosperity. So the inequality in the world is stark and we in the west have been extremely privileged to be sheltered from a lot of the chaos in the world. In fact, the US empire is designed to ensure the populations never have to suffer the tragedy and suffering of other people. And what I'm trying to say is this US empire is breaking down and there's nothing that we can do to stop it. So all the stuff that we might have seen on television, it is coming to us in our lives and we need to be aware of it.
**主持人**：当你提到“这些动荡即将降临到我们的现实生活中”时，指的是同样吞噬世界其他地方的政治暴力、秩序混乱以及极端的政治撕裂吗？你是否认为全面的战火真的会烧到我们本土的海岸线上？毕竟我们如今生活在后核武器时代……
Original English **Host**: When you say it's coming to us in our lives, it's coming to us in our lives. The same political violence, the same chaos, the same political polarization that has infested the rest of the world. Do you think war is coming to our shores? Because we now live in a post nuclear bomb era.
**教授**：是的。
Original English **Professor**: Yes.
**主持人**：而核威慑机制似乎以一种十分微妙而奇特的方式，在大国与超级大国之间维持了某种程度的和平，不是吗？
Original English **Host**: And that seems to have created in a weird way a bit of peace, right, between superpowers.
**教授**：那么，我们现在来看大屏幕，好吗？我打算借助几张清晰的地图，为你完整勾勒出我们全球供应链的全貌，并向你深入剖析全球供应链彻底断裂到底意味着什么。我希望通过这些直观的地图，能够把即将到来的危机以一种清晰明了、通俗易懂的方式呈现在你面前。
Original English **Professor**: So, I'm going to go to the screen, okay? And I'm going to paint you a picture of our global supply chains and what it means for global supply chains to break down using a few maps. And these maps, I hope, will paint a clear and simple picture of what is about to come.
### 从优绩主义幻象到全球体系瓦解的认知觉醒 **主持人**：在我们把目光转向大屏幕之前，我能先问你一个问题吗？你一直以来都对未来抱有如此悲观的态度吗？
Original English **Host**: Can I ask you a questions before we go to the screen? Have you always been pessimistic about the future?
**教授**：并不是。
Original English **Professor**: No.
**主持人**：那你究竟是在什么时候开始对未来感到极度悲观的呢？
Original English **Host**: When did you become pessimistic about the future?
**教授**：我是在英国脱欧公投（Brexit）以及唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）胜选之后，才对未来陷入深深的悲观之中的。 之所以如此，是因为我自己是一名在极其贫困的家庭中长大的第一代移民。我的父亲是一名洗碗工，他在餐厅辛辛苦苦刷了整整30年的盘子直到退休。我们家当年穷困潦倒，甚至连一辆汽车都买不起，更从未出去度过哪怕一次假。 但我拼命努力读书奋斗，最终成功考入了耶鲁大学——全球顶尖的学府之一。不仅如此，我还是凭借全额奖学金被录取的。 因此在当时的我看来，这个世界是无比完美的，是一个纯粹的优绩主义社会（Meritocracy），是一个真正奖赏才华、犒劳勤奋付出的人间乐土。我曾坚定不移地相信：整个世界完全是由理性、逻辑、科学、真理以及心怀善意的人们所主导和治理的。 然而，当英国脱欧与唐纳德·特朗普当选这两大历史事件接连发生时，我整个人受到了极大的心理创伤。 英国脱欧，代表着英国民众在集体意志上背离了全球化路线；而在我的认知视角中，唐纳德·特朗普的当选，则标志着美国社会对优绩主义、对理性、对真理以及对固有秩序的公然抛弃与背叛。 当这一切真真切切地发生之后，它彻底击碎了我过去对世界运转规律的全部信念，无情地告诉我那些信条根本行不通。正是这些重大历史变故，迫使我开始深层次地反思与审视：为什么这个世界正在一步步走向解体与瓦解？ 正是这一系列的探索与追问，引领我走到了今天的位置。因为我如今所致力的，就是从历史的深层脉络中提炼规律，挖掘社会运行的底层原理，从而帮助我们更深刻地看清我们自身的处境。 这就是为什么我刚才在黑板上画出那个公式的原因。在传统观念中，我们总是狭隘地认为前沿创新主要源于顶尖大学的科研象牙塔；但经过对历史的深入钻研以及对全球供应链体系的透彻剖析之后，我如今清醒地意识到：绝非如此，现代科技的繁荣本质上完全依赖于分工专业化与全球化网络。 这一框架不仅为我们提供了一套剖析当今现实世界的分析工具，更为我们提供了一个准确预测未来走向的理论模型。 试想一下：如果在战争与动荡时期，商业化网络与全球化分工体系彻底断裂解体，那么在理论逻辑上，依托于其上的现代科技与工业体系也必将随之一同瓦解。这正是我们当下必须全力厘清的核心课题——探究我们究竟是如何一步步沦落到今天这个境地的底层机理。
Original English **Professor**: I became very pessimistic about the future after Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Because I was an immigrant who grew up in a very poor family. My father was a dishwasher and he was a dishwasher for 30 years before he retired. We're so poor we couldn't even afford a car. We never took any vacations. But I worked hard. I got into Yale University, one of the best colleges in the world. And not only that, but I went there on a full scholarship. So from my perspective, the world was perfect. It was a meritocracy. It was a place that rewarded talent and hard work. So I believed that the world was governed by reason, by logic, by science, by truth, by good people. And when Brexit and the election of Donald Trump happened, I was traumatized. Brexit was the British people turning away from globalization. The election of Donald Trump from my perspective was the American rejection of meritocracy, of reason, of truth, of order. And when that happened, it sort of told me what I believe about the world didn't really work. And when those things happened, that forced me to reflect deeply on why the world was breaking down. And those events led me to today. Because what I'm trying to do is I'm trying to figure out patterns of history, principles of society that allow us to better understand ourselves. And that's why I drew you this formula because traditionally we understood innovation as maybe coming from universities. And having studied history, having studied global supply chains, I now recognize that no technology just comes from specialization and globalization. And this not only is an analysis of the current world, but it also gives us a framework to predict the future, right? So if in a time of war, commercialization, globalization break down, then in theory, technology should break down as well. Okay? And that's what I'm trying to figure out—how and why we are where we are today.
### 赞助播报：Bon Charge 红光护肤面罩 **主持人**：那么，你刚才说想在白板上画些示意图。
Original English **Host**: So, you wanted to draw something on the whiteboard.
**教授**：好的，没问题。
Original English **Professor**: Okay. Right.
**主持人**：哇哦，你脸上戴着的那个是什么高科技玩意儿？ 这是我的 Bon Charge 红光美容面罩。我已经坚持佩戴它很长一段时间了，他们也是本期播客节目的赞助商。我每天都会戴上它照个15到20分钟，哪怕只是像现在这样静静地坐在椅子上就能轻松完成护理。 它能有效刺激胶原蛋白生成，帮助淡化细纹、修护面部瑕疵，让整体肤质与气色变得更好——这样一来，因为我出镜状态更佳，自然会有更多观众愿意收听收看这档节目。在这么小巧便携的设备里整合了专业级别的护肤科技，而且完全是非侵入性的。 在这个演播室里，我曾与全世界众多顶尖的健康医疗专家深入对谈，听过各种各样据称有效的保健方法，坦白说有些我也心存疑虑；但这套红光科技，是几乎所有做客本节目的专家都一致认可且证实行之有效的方案之一。它的实际效果确实非常非常出色。他们现在还提供快速……
Original English **Host**: Whoa. What's that on your face? This is my Bon Charge face mask. I've been wearing this for some time now. They're a sponsor of the podcast. I put this on for 15 20 minutes a day. I can sit here in the chair and wear it. Boosts my collagen production. Helps with fine lines, blemishes, my complexion gets better, and then more people listen to the podcast cuz I look better. Professional-grade equipment in such a small box. It's non-invasive. And having sat here with so many of the world's leading health professionals, there's various things that I repeatedly hear work and some things I'm a bit skeptical about. This is one of the things that almost all of my guests on this show have confirmed works. It is really, really effective. And they offer fast,
### 赞助商插播与个人品牌工具推荐 **主持人**：全球免运费，且支持便捷退换。此外，他们的所有产品均享有一年保修期。同时这些产品还支持 HSA 和 FSA 账户报销，可为你带来高达 40% 的免税优惠。若通过我的专属链接 bondcharge.com/doac 订购，全场还可享受八折（20% off）优惠。网址是 bondcharge.com/doac，全场通用。
Original English **Host**: Free shipping worldwide with easy returns and exchanges. And you'll also get a one-year warranty on all of their products. And they're HSA and FSA eligible, giving you tax-free savings up to 40%. And you can get 20% off when you order through my link at bondcharge.com/doac. That's bondcharge.com/doac. The deal applies sitewide.
**主持人**：大多数人之所以没有持续发布内容或建立个人品牌，很大程度上是因为这不仅难度大、耗费时间，而且每个人平时都非常忙碌。如果你以前从未公开发布过内容，心理层面会有很多阻碍因素抑制你的表达欲望——比如过分在意外界的看法：“大家会怎么评价我？”“我这样做对不对？”“我说的话会不会显得很愚蠢？”所有这些顾虑最终都会导致行动瘫痪，结果就是你不敢发帖，你的社交主页也始终一片空白。
Original English **Host**: Much of the reason most people haven't posted content or built their personal brand is because it's hard and it's time-consuming and we're all very very busy. And if you've never posted something before, there's so many factors in your psychology that stop you wanting to post. What people will think of you. Am I doing this right? Is the thing I'm saying absolutely stupid? All of these result in paralysis, which means you don't post and your feed goes bare.
**主持人**：我投资了一家名为 Stan 的公司，你们可能之前听我提起过。他们最近一直在开发一款名为 Stanley 的全新 AI 工具。它会分析你的主页动态、语言语调、历史内容以及表现最佳的帖子，据此为你提供发布建议，甚至直接帮你生成帖子内容。你也可以单纯用它来获取灵感。有时候，当我们打算在社交媒体上发布动态时，最匮乏的往往就是灵感。积累受众群体彻底改变了我的生活，我相信它也能改变你的生活。因此，我真诚邀请你试用这款新工具，并告诉我你的使用体验。你现在只需搜索 coach.stand 或访问 stand.store 即可立即开始体验。
Original English **Host**: I'm an investor in a company called Stan, which you've probably heard me talk about. And what they've been building is this new tool called Stanley that uses AI, looks at your feed, looks at your tone of voice, looks at your history, looks at your best performing posts, and tells you what you should post, makes those posts for you. You can also just use it for inspiration. And sometimes what we need when we're thinking about doing a post for our social media channels is inspiration. Building an audience has fundamentally changed my life, and I think it could change yours, too. So, I'm inviting you to give this new tool a shot and let me know what you think. All you have to do is search coach.stand / stand.store now to get started.
### 全球半导体产业链的相互依存与资源制衡 **嘉宾**：这是全球供应链网络的概览总结，从中我们可以清晰看到它如何将整个世界紧密交织在一起。如果脱离全球化经济体系，你根本无法制造出半导体。外界总在热议中国对关键元素的掌控，比如中国制造了全球约 70% 的硅材料，并控制了全球约 70% 的稀土资源。但大家往往没有意识到的是，这种依赖关系是双向的。
Original English **Guest**: So this is a summary of the global supply chain network and we can see how it involves the entire world. You are not able to build semiconductors unless you have a globalized economy. So there's been a lot of talk about China controlling the elements, right? So, China manufactures about 70% of the world's silicon and rare earths, China controls about 70% of rare earths. What people don't appreciate is it works both ways. Okay?
**嘉宾**：中国确实大量出口硅和稀土，但与此同时，中国必须大量进口氦气才能维持其半导体制造工艺。原因在于半导体制造过程中必须依靠氦气进行特定冷却，氦气在此扮演着不可或缺的冷却剂角色。
Original English **Guest**: So, China does export a lot of silicon and rare earths, but it also needs to import a lot of helium in order to sustain its semiconductor manufacturing process. The reason why is helium cools these semiconductors in a way to allow for it to be manufactured. Okay. So, helium is a cooling agent.
**嘉宾**：另一个常被忽视的事实是：人们以为中国垄断了稀土，但美国在北卡罗来纳州一个叫云杉松（Spruce Pine）的地方，垄断了全球高纯度石英的供应。该地区控制着全球约 90% 的高品质石英，而高纯度石英同样是硅晶圆及半导体制造中必不可少的核心原料。因此，如果这些国家之间停止相互贸易，整个人类的科技进步将会直接停滞。
Original English **Guest**: Another thing that people don't appreciate is people think that China has a monopoly on rare earths, but America in a place called Spruce Pine, Spruce Pine, North Carolina. This area has monopoly on high quality quartz. It controls about 90% of the world's high quality quartz which you need in the silicon manufacturing process as well. Okay. So if these nations start to stop trading with each other technology would cease to progress.
### 化肥供应链与全球南北方的粮食安全鸿沟 **嘉宾**：我们需要牢记的是，依赖全球供应链的绝不仅限于半导体领域，粮食供应对全球供应链的依赖度同样极高。目前我们看到的是全球北方与全球南方之间极其强烈的反差。全球北方生产了世界上绝大部分化肥，而全球南方——主要是非洲、中东和南美洲——则高度依赖化肥进口。
Original English **Guest**: Now something to keep in mind is it's not just semiconductors that are dependent on the global supply chain. Food is also very dependent on the global supply chain. So what we're seeing is a stark contrast between the north and the south. So the north, okay, produces most of the world's fertilizer and the south, okay, primarily Africa, the Middle East and South America, they import a lot of the fertilizer.
**嘉宾**：从这张地图上可以看得更加清楚。氨是化肥极其关键的核心组成部分，而正如你所见，全球绝大多数合成氨生产基地实际上都集中在世界北方，包括加拿大、美国、欧洲、中国和俄罗斯。因此，全球南方在粮食安全上完全仰赖北方。在战乱时期，一旦全球供应链发生断裂，北方国家可能只是失去获取高端无线智能手机的途径，而南方国家则将直接面临大饥荒。
Original English **Guest**: This map shows it much more clearly. Okay, so ammonia is a very important component of fertilizer. And as you can see, most of the ammonium production plants are actually in the north of the world. Canada, United States, Europe, China, Russia. So the south, the global south is dependent on the north for food. In a time of war, when global supply chains break down, the north might lose access to fancy wireless smartphones. The south will face famine. Okay?
### 水资源危机与未来地缘政治冲突点 **嘉宾**：为什么这一点至关重要？因为当今世界正充斥着各种冲突。未来 20 年我们所面临的核心问题并非石油危机，而实际上是水资源危机。我们眼前的这张地图清晰指出了未来主要的全球地缘政治冲突热点。地图上的红色区域代表该地区面临严重的水资源短缺问题，而这些红色标记直接预示了未来战争将在哪里爆发。
Original English **Guest**: Why is this important? Because the world is rife with conflict. The main issue that we will face next 20 years is not oil. It's actually water. All right. So, this map that we're seeing right now is actually telling us where the next major geopolitical flash points are. So basically if you see red on the map it means this place has water scarcity issues and the red issues tell us exactly where wars will erupt. Okay.
**嘉宾**：即便是美国，如果你看美国西部地区，同样存在严重的水资源匮乏危机。如果你去到美国西部的科罗拉多州、加利福尼亚州和亚利桑那州等地，他们正因科罗拉多河的水权分配争执不休，因为科罗拉多河承担着供应当地绝大部分水源的重任。再看中东，大家都知道中东就像一个随时可能引爆的火药桶，而未来的战争危机将进一步加剧中东现有的所有紧张局势。印度自身也面临着严重水资源短缺，这直接将其推向了与中国的潜在冲突之中。
Original English **Guest**: So, even the United States, if you look at the western part of the United States, they do have water scarcity issues. And actually, if you go to the western United States, Colorado, California, Arizona, these places, they're fighting over the Colorado River because the Colorado River is what supplies most of their water. You go to the Middle East and you know that the Middle East is almost like a dynamite ready to explode. And what this war will do is aggravate all the tensions in the Middle East. India itself is facing water shortages which brings it into conflict with China.
**嘉宾**：因此，仅凭这张地图，你就能一目了然未来地缘政治的引爆点都在何处。这意味着这些地区在未来 20 年内爆发战争、武装冲突或政治动荡的可能性极高。此外，这里还有东北亚地区，包括日本和朝鲜半岛北部，这也是另一个主要的热点区域。所以这就是未来 20 年战争最有可能爆发的地带。但更关键的是要认识到，一旦战争爆发，将会产生一系列三阶连锁效应，导致冲突蔓延至全球各地。
Original English **Guest**: Okay. So this one map if you can just see it, it basically tells you where the next geopolitical flash points will be. It means a place that is most likely to go to war or have conflict or political violence within the next 20 years. Okay. But also here is northeast Asia. Japan is here. North Korea is here. Okay. So that's another major flash point. So this is what over the next 20 years where war is most likely to break out. Okay. But what's important to appreciate is once war breaks out there are third order effects causing conflict to spread around the world.
### 人口结构失衡、老龄化危机与移民冲突 **嘉宾**：这也是一张非常重要的核心地图，展示了全球各地的生育率水平。正如大家所见，非洲拥有全球最高的生育率，紧随其后的是中东地区。
Original English **Guest**: Okay. This is a really important map for us to appreciate as well. This map tells us fertility rates around the world. As you can see, Africa has the world's highest fertility rate followed by the Middle East. Okay.
**主持人**：也就是说，他们每对夫妇生育的子女数量最多。
Original English **Host**: So, they're having the most children per couples.
**嘉宾**：完全正确。为什么这会构成严峻问题？因为结合前一张地图来看，这些区域恰恰也是地缘政治紧张局势最集中的地方。当地出生越来越多的新生儿与年轻人口，在资源匮乏与动荡的压力下，他们别无选择只能向外迁徙。他们会迁往何处？很可能是欧洲。你可能会想：“既然如此，欧洲完全可以采取闭关自守的防御策略，筑起高墙阻止这些移民进入欧洲。”
Original English **Guest**: That's right. Why is this a problem? Because if you go back to the previous map, this area is also where there is the most geopolitical tension. And so if there are more and more children, young people being born here, they have no choice but to migrate. And where will they migrate? Probably to Europe. And you're like, well, okay, well then what Europe should do is turtle up. Europe should build walls and prevent these migrants from reaching Europe.
**嘉宾**：然而，欧洲自身正深陷严重的人口老龄化危机。看看正在发生的情况：人口老龄化速度最快的国家实际上都集中在最发达的经济体，包括日本、欧洲以及北美。面对庞大的老龄化人口，社会必须提供廉价的医疗照护与养老护理服务。这意味着什么？这意味着你必须接纳更多移民来服务这部分老龄化人口。而随之而来的必然是国内社会矛盾——大量移民涌入西方社会，与本土原住人口发生剧烈文化和利益碰撞，进而可能引发内乱、政治暴力甚至是社会动荡革命。可以说，这几张地图共同勾勒出了我们所处世界极其严峻暗淡的未来图景。
Original English **Guest**: But Europe has its own problem, which is the aging crisis. Okay. So, look at what's happening where the fastest aging populations are in fact in the most developed nations including Japan, Europe, and North America. So, if you have an aging population, you need to provide cheap health care, nursing. What does that mean? It means you have to let in more immigrants in order to service the aging population. And what will happen then is domestic conflict where you have more migration into western societies which brings them into conflict with the native populations and therefore it is possible you have civil war as well as political violence and even the possibility of revolution. Okay. So these maps collectively paint a very grim picture of the world that we're living in.
### 右翼政党崛起与自动化机器人的供应链死结 **主持人**：关于移民引发内战、政治暴力或革命的论点，难道情况不会正如我们当下所见那样——西方社会将加速转向右翼政党？这正是目前正在显现的趋势。我们看到英国的改革党支持率飙升；昨天德国也传出了当地政党势力崛起的重磅新闻；在美国我们也同样目睹着类似趋势的发展。
Original English **Host**: On this page here about immigration causing civil war political violence, revolution, won't it just be the case as we're seeing that these western societies will increase right-wing political parties, which is kind of what we're seeing. We're seeing, you know, parties in the UK like reform surge. I think there was news yesterday in Germany of the political party there. We're seeing I mean we're seeing the same in the United States as well.
**嘉宾**：这是一个极好的切入点，而且这完全符合我们正在观察到的现实。在德国我们看到选择党（AfD）强势崛起；在美国 MAGA 势力占据着绝对主导地位；在西班牙我们见证了呼声党（Vox）的发展。因此，从理论逻辑上推导，未来的演变轨迹将是这些国家整体向右转，随后全面封锁并阻断移民涌入，因为这本身就是右翼政党最核心的执政纲领。按理说，这应该能遏制移民冲突演变成内战。
Original English **Guest**: That that's a fantastic point. That's exactly what we're seeing. We're seeing the AfD surge in Germany. You know, MAGA being very dominant in the United States. We're seeing Vox in Spain. So, in theory, what's going to happen is these countries become much more right-wing and then they block out immigration because that that is their main policy platform. And that should stop the civil war.
**嘉宾**：但接下来的核心难题在于：你该如何应对自身社会严重的老龄化人口？
Original English **Guest**: The problem is what do you do about your aging population?
**主持人**：依靠机器人自动化。
Original English **Host**: Robots.
**嘉宾**：一点没错，这确实是人们下意识的直觉方案。但我们目前面临的现实是全球供应链的深度断裂。机器人的制造极度依赖铜资源，对吧？而铜主要产自智利、秘鲁、中国和澳大利亚。这些产地距离欧洲和美国都极其遥远。同时制造机器人还需要锂资源，锂主要来自南美“锂三角”地区，同样相距甚远。你还需要硅材料，而硅主要由中国加工制造；你还需要稀土元素，这同样高度依赖中国产业链。这就陷入了一个巨大的现实死结：理论上你可以尝试用机器人替代劳动力，但当全球供应链发生断裂瘫痪时，你必须寻找成本最低廉的方式来解决劳动力短缺危机，而成本最低的解决方案依然只有接纳移民。
Original English **Guest**: Exactly. Right. That's what you would think. But what we're seeing is a breakdown in global supply chains. Robots depend on copper, right? Which you get from Chile, Peru, China, Australia. These are pretty far away places from Europe and United States, right? You also need lithium which you get from the lithium triangle again pretty far away. You also need silicon which is mainly manufactured in China. You need rare earths which again is really manufactured in China. You have this huge issue where in theory you could use robots but when global supply chain breaks down you have to figure out the cheapest way to resolve the labor issue and the cheapest solution is immigration. Right? People I had to
### 伊朗局势、博弈论与全球贸易封锁 **Speaker A**: ……这么说吧，但相比机器人，人力要便宜得多，也更容易被消耗。我知道这听起来有些吓人，也确实令人感到极其沮丧，对吧？但如果美国能够打赢这场针对伊朗的战争并实现政权更迭呢？那样的话我们的问题就迎刃而解了。届时，伊朗将处于美国的控制之下，我们又回到了全球化的轨道：石油能够顺畅地流向南亚和东亚，随后他们制造商品，再将利润循环回流到经济体系中。有了这些充裕的资金，人工智能就能够持续创新，直至我们实现通用人工智能（AGI），进而解决世界上所有的难题。好吧，那么在整个伊朗局势的发展中，接下来究竟会发生什么？
Original English **Speaker A**: ...say this, but people are much cheaper and much more expendable than robots. So, I know this is a bit scary. I know this is really depressing, okay? But what if the United States were able to win this war in Iran and conduct regime change? Then our problems are solved. Right now, Iran is under the control of the United States and we're back to globalization where oil is able to flow to South Asia, to East Asia, and then they manufacture goods and then recycle their profits into the economy. And with all this money, AI is able to innovate to a point where we achieve AGI and then we solve all the world's problems. Okay. So what happens next with this whole Iran situation?
**Speaker B**: 不幸的是，它现在已经具备了某种势头。好的，让我来解释一下最有可能发生的情况。你看，伊朗目前掌控着霍尔木兹海峡，对吧？还有也门胡塞武装，他们控制着曼德海峡；黎巴嫩真主党能够威胁苏伊士运河；什叶派民兵组织同样能够威胁地中海，对吧？从博弈论的角度来看，伊朗接下来的最优策略应当是掌握主动权，全面切断并扰乱全球贸易。原因在于，美利坚帝国的根基建立在石油美元和全球贸易体系之上。当你在同一时间彻底打乱全球贸易通道时，美国根本没有任何有效的手段来做出全面回应。
Original English **Speaker B**: So unfortunately it has now this momentum. All right. So let me explain what is most likely to happen. Okay. So you have Iran and you are now controlling the Hormuz, right? You have the Houthis and they control the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. You have Hezbollah which can threaten the Suez Canal. You have the Shia militias that can also threaten the Mediterranean. Right? From a game theory perspective, what Iran should do next is take the initiative and disrupt all global trade. And the reason why is the US empire is based on the petrodollar. It's based on global trade. When you disrupt global trade at the same time, there's no way for the United States to respond.
**Speaker A**: 他们具体会如何扰乱全球贸易？
Original English **Speaker A**: How could they disrupt global trade?
**Speaker B**: 他们能采取的手段就是发起无差别的随机打击。比如，胡塞武装可以袭击沙特阿拉伯，伊拉克境内的武装可以袭击以色列，伊朗自身可以封锁打击霍尔木兹海峡，真主党可以袭击苏伊士运河。明白吗？这么做的目的，就是在全球贸易体系中人为制造巨大的不确定性与恐慌混乱。为什么这至关重要？因为全球贸易体系是建立在信心之上的，而信心正是支撑航运保险业运转的核心。
Original English **Speaker B**: What they can do is start to attack randomly. Okay. So what Houthis can do is attack Saudi Arabia. Iraq can attack Israel. Iran can attack the Hormuz. Hezbollah can attack the Suez Canal. Okay? And why you do that is you're creating uncertainty and chaos in the global trade system. Why is that important? Because the global trade system is built on confidence and that's what drives insurance. Okay?
**Speaker B**: 设想一下，如果你是一家航运保险公司，面对这种局面必然会惊呼：“天呐，这些行动方完全处于失控状态，美国已经彻底失去了对局势的掌控力。”届时，保险公司将无法再为全球远洋运输提供承保。一旦失去保险担保，全球海运贸易体系就会立刻瘫痪并停止运转。这就是所谓的“疯子理论”（Madman Theory），也是伊朗在当前局面下继续推进的最佳博弈手段。原因在于，面对遍布整个中东地区的协同随机打击，美国在军事能力上根本无力做到处处应对。
Original English **Speaker B**: So if you're an insurance company, you're like, "Oh my god, these actors are completely out of control. The United States has lost control over the situation." You can no longer insure global shipping. If you can't insure global shipping, global shipping ceases to work. All right? So this is a madman theory and this is Iran's best play moving forward. And the reason why is the United States does not have the military capacity to respond to a coordinated random strike across the Middle East.
### 战争升级的恶性循环与人道灾难 **Speaker A**: 那么这是你的明确预测吗？这就是下一步必然会发生的走向吗？
Original English **Speaker A**: So is this your prediction? Is this what happens next?
**Speaker B**: 我并不想直接把它定性为一个确定性的预测，毕竟其中还夹杂着大量我们无法完全掌握的变量。首先，对于伊朗内部目前的真实政治生态与各派博弈，外界并不能完全洞悉。毫无疑问，伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）极度倾向于采取这种激进举措；但伊朗内部同样存在其他政治派系，他们会认为这种做法挑衅意味太浓、风险过高，一旦伊朗真这么做，很可能会促使全世界空前团结地站到伊朗的对立面。
Original English **Speaker B**: I don't want to make this prediction just because there are lots of factors I do not know. Okay. So first of all, I don't know politically what the situation is in Iran. Certainly, the IRGC would want to do this, but there are political factions within Iran who would think this is too provocative, and it's possible the entire world would unite against Iran if Iran were to do this.
**Speaker A**: 那么，就伊朗局势以及接下来的发展而言，你真正的研判是什么？
Original English **Speaker A**: So, what is your prediction in terms of Iran and what happens next?
**Speaker B**: 我的核心研判是：局势只会进一步升级。至于它具体将以何种路径升级，目前仍充满变数。然而，对于伊朗来说，手里最强的一张王牌就是出手封锁并扰乱全球贸易。但美国必然也会予以反击，其反击手段将是直接轰炸摧毁伊朗的关键民用基础设施，包括海水淡化厂和发电厂。从破坏力来说，这甚至比直接对伊朗投掷核武器还要惨烈——因为一旦失去发电厂，像德黑兰这样拥有上千万人口的大都市将面临直接的饥荒，毕竟城市中大量的食品储备都高度依赖电力冷藏。
Original English **Speaker B**: My prediction is this will only escalate. How it will escalate, I don't know. Okay. But the trump card, to use a pun, for Iran is to start to disrupt global trade. But United States has a response and this response is to attack Iran's critical civil infrastructure which includes desalination plants and power plants. And this would be worse than using a nuclear weapon on Iran because without power plants, the people in Tehran, a city of about 10 million people, they face starvation because a lot of this food is refrigerated.
**Speaker B**: 战争就是这样演变成近乎毁灭人类文明的灾难的：如果伊朗全面切断全球贸易通道，而美国继而炸毁伊朗的所有发电厂……
Original English **Speaker B**: This is how the war becomes almost civilization destroying. If Iran were to completely disrupt global trade and if the United States were to destroy the power plants of Iran...
**Speaker A**: 显而易见，这对于生活在伊朗的普通民众而言将是极其可怕、难以想象的人道惨剧，那些无辜的人们完全是被卷入其中。但你觉得美国真的会采取这么极端的手段吗？
Original English **Speaker A**: ...obviously that would be horrific and sort of inconceivably horrifying for the people that live in Iran, the innocent people that are caught in the middle of this. You don't think that the US will actually do that though, right?
**Speaker B**: 我认为美国最终会被迫走到这一步。
Original English **Speaker B**: I think the United States will be forced to do it.
**Speaker A**: 你觉得他们真的会被迫这么做？
Original English **Speaker A**: You think they'll be forced to do it?
**Speaker B**: 是的。根据博弈论推导，他们将被迫做出这种行为模式。因为我们必须清醒地认识到这样一种权力定律：一个实体拥有的权力越大，其想象力和同理心往往就越匮乏。因此在决策者的逻辑里，屠杀数以百万计的伊朗平民并不会被视作不可承受的高昂代价；只要能保住帝国霸权，一切代价在他们看来都是值得的。极度的傲慢自大让他们坚信神明永远眷顾自己，深信自己最终必定能在这场宏大的霸权博弈中赢得彻底的胜利。
Original English **Speaker B**: Yes. According to game theory, they will be forced to behave like this because we need to appreciate this formula where the more power you have, the less imagination, empathy you have. And so the idea is you don't think killing millions of Iranians is too heavy a price. It's all worth it if you can maintain the empire. The hubris leads you to believe that the gods favor you and you ultimately win and triumph in this great struggle.
### 难民潮与帝国的霸权困境 **Speaker A**: 这样一来，难道不会引发极其庞大的难民危机吗？无数面临饥荒的人们将不得不逃离伊朗，一路涌入欧洲。
Original English **Speaker A**: Don't you create a huge migration crisis where people start fleeing from Iran up into Europe because they are starving?
**Speaker B**: 完全正确。不仅是伊朗，非洲同样会爆发难民潮，因为他们也将彻底失去获取廉价能源和化肥的途径。于是大规模的移民潮将直接冲击欧洲，彻底压垮欧洲的社会结构，继而击垮欧洲各国的国家治理体系。令人遗憾的是，类似的情形自2014年以来就一直在以较慢的节奏上演——当时美国不知出于何种原因决定摧毁利比亚，并在叙利亚挑起内战，导致数百万难民背井离乡涌入欧洲。正如你所见，欧洲人出于慷慨接纳了所有这些难民，但这直接导致了当今欧洲社会内部极其剧烈的社会摩擦与政治撕裂。
Original English **Speaker B**: Exactly. Right. Not just Iran, but Africa as well because they've lost access to cheap energy and fertilizer. So you have all this migration into Europe which would overwhelm the European social fabric which would overwhelm the European state. But unfortunately, this has been happening at a much slower pace ever since 2014 when for whatever reason the United States chose to destroy Libya and cause civil war in Syria which caused millions to migrate into Europe. And as you remember the Europeans in the generosity accepted all these migrants which has led to tremendous social friction and political tension in Europe today.
**Speaker A**: 那么，总结你的核心研判：首先，美国无法赢得这场所谓在中东的“战争”，因为他们根本无法彻底击溃伊朗及其代理人网络；其次，整个中东战火还将继续不可逆转地恶化升级。
Original English **Speaker A**: So your prediction here if we conclude then is that the US won't win this quote-unquote war in the Middle East because they can't defeat Iran and its proxies. But also your conclusion is that this is going to continue to escalate in the Middle East.
**Speaker B**: 没错。事实上，我们现在已经目睹了其他区域行动方正身不由己地被卷入战局。例如最新的消息显示，韩国已经批准派遣海军特遣舰队前往中东，试图协助维系霍尔木兹海峡的航运安全。
Original English **Speaker B**: Yes. And already what we're seeing are other actors being drawn into the war. So the most recent news is South Korea has authorized a naval contingent to go and try to secure the Hormuz.
### 决策心理与三条惊悚预言 **Speaker A**: （笑）如果你是唐纳德·特朗普，处于那个位置上你会怎么做？
Original English **Speaker A**: What would you do if you were Donald Trump? [laughter]
**Speaker B**: 如果我是唐纳德·特朗普？我会选择直接“孤注一掷、全盘押上”（Push all in）。我会立刻下令对伊朗的发电厂等核心基础设施展开全面打击。因为如果我采取任何半途而废的折中妥协手段，只会让自己显得极度软弱无能，反而会滋生更多的麻烦，甚至变相鼓励伊朗及其盟友采取更加激进、更具攻击性的挑衅行为。因此，如果我是特朗普并且身处这种险境，我只会选择全线压上、孤注一掷。
Original English **Speaker B**: I mean, what would I do if I were Donald Trump? I would push all in. I would start attacking power plants in Iran because if I take any half measures, I would just look weak and I'm only going to create more problems. I would only incentivize Iran and its allies to be more provocative, to be more aggressive. So if I'm Donald Trump and I'm in this situation, I would just push all in.
**Speaker A**: 但从理论推导来看，你这么做的代价是屠杀数百万无辜的伊朗平民。
Original English **Speaker A**: You would end up killing millions of Iranians theoretically.
**Speaker B**: 可问题在于，这场战争既然已经由我打响，我就必须不惜一切代价赢得战争，因为我绝不能输，我拒绝吞下战败的苦果。我再次强调，我完全理解人道主义层面的担忧，但如果你真想透视这些帝国最高统治者的决策逻辑，权力心理学公式提供了最佳的观察窗口：正是因为手握无上生杀大权，他们早已丧失了想象不同可能性以及对全人类苦难感同身受的同理心。
Original English **Speaker B**: Well, I start this war, right? Then I have to win this war because I can't lose this war. I refuse to lose this war. I mean, again, I understand the concerns. Okay? But if you want to understand how these leaders think, this formula gives you the best window into the psychology, which is because of so much power, they lose the capacity to imagine different possibilities and have empathy for the suffering of the people in the world.
**Speaker A**: 难道他们就不能直接选择抽身撤退吗？特朗普难道不能直接召开一场大型新闻发布会宣布：“我们在伊朗的军事行动已经大获全胜。我们彻底摧毁了他们的军队和海军基地，任务已达成，伊朗将不再拥有核武器。”这样不行吗？
Original English **Speaker A**: Couldn't they just back out? Couldn't Donald Trump just say do a big press conference where he says, "We won this war in Iran. We've destroyed their military, their naval bases. It's done. and Iran will no longer have a nuclear weapons."
**Speaker B**: 因为整个石油美元体系本质上仅立足于两大基石：一是作为全球核心储备货币的美元地位，二是美军不可战胜、无可匹敌的绝对威慑力光环。
Original English **Speaker B**: The entire petro dollar system is premised on two things. The US dollar as the world reserve currency and the aura of inevitability and invincibility of the US military.
**Speaker A**: 一旦美军显露出一丝能够被击败的破绽，美国多年塑造的霸权形象就会彻底受损蒙尘。
Original English **Speaker A**: If they look like they are beatable, then the US as its image is sufficiently tarnished.
**Speaker B**: 确实如此。那么关于接下来的局势，你的具体预测又是什么？我一直非常想知道。为此我专门带来了三条核心研判，而且由于当下正值纽约市“9·11”纪念日临近的节点，我便围绕这一历史节点梳理构思了这三项既令人深思又颇为惊悚的研判预测。
Original English **Speaker B**: Right. What are your predictions? I've been dying to know. So I brought to you three predictions and because we are so close to the anniversary of 9/11 in New York City, I structured these predictions around the anniversary and so these will be three fun but horrifying predictions. Okay. All right.
**Speaker B**: 我的第一项研判预测是：纽约市未来将会面临围城封锁之灾。让我来详细拆解其中的推导逻辑。上次我在这里时就曾提到过，唐纳德·特朗普将会谋求第三个总统任期；他一直对此开玩笑，在各类公开场合反复大谈特谈，也在社交媒体上频繁提及。那么让我们设想一下，如果特朗普真的成功开启第三任期，究竟会引发什么连锁反应？毫无疑问，这将在全美范围内激怒大量民众，尤其是在洛杉矶、旧金山、波士顿、芝加哥以及纽约市等核心大都市。
Original English **Speaker B**: So my prediction number one is there will be a siege of New York City. All right. So let me explain my logic. I was here last time and I said that Donald Trump will get a third term and he's been joking about it. He's been talking a lot about it. He's been socialing about it. And so let's imagine what happens if Trump gets a third term. Well, you would have a lot of pissed-off people, especially in the major cities of Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, Chicago, and New York City.
**Speaker A**: 我们或许应该先在这里暂停并厘清一下：美国宪法对总统任职三届有着明确的禁令。其核心法律障碍在于1951年通过的美国宪法第二十二修正案——该修正案是在富兰克林·D·罗斯福连续四次赢得总统大选后正式批准确立的。它为美国总统职位设立了极其严格的任期限制，第二十二修正案的正文明确规定：任何人当选总统的次数不得超过两次。那么，所谓连任三届的情况究竟又该如何突破宪法成为可能？
Original English **Speaker A**: We should probably just pause there because there is a constitutional ban on serving three terms. The primary barrier being the 22nd amendment, which was ratified in 1951 by Franklin D. Roosevelt, who won four elections. It establishes a strict term limit for the presidency and the text in the 22nd amendment explicitly says no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice. So how could that happen? Well, let's just say there...
### 特朗普获得第三任期的假设与历史先例 **Speaker A**：……发生国家紧急状态，总统被迫中止宪法。这样他在理论上就可以迎来他的第三个任期。还有一种可能是，在2028年他决定作为副总统候选人参选，并让他的儿子小唐纳德·特朗普（Don Jr.）位居竞选搭档首位担任总统候选人；一旦赢得大选，小唐纳德·特朗普便会宣布辞职，接着唐纳德·特朗普就会接任成为总统，而美国宪法中没有任何条款能够阻止他这么做。所以存在这两种可能性。
Original English **Speaker A**: ... is a national emergency and the president is forced to suspend the constitution. Then he could theoretically have his third term. It's also possible that in 2028 he decides to run as the vice president and have his son Don Jr. run at the top of the ticket and then once the election is over then Don Jr. would resign and then Donald Trump would become the president and there's nothing in the constitution that prevents him from doing that. So there are two possibilities.
**Speaker B**：可是美国宪法里没有任何内容允许美国总统在国家紧急状态时期中止宪法。
Original English **Speaker B**: There isn't anything in the constitution that allows the US president to suspend the constitution in a in a time of a national emergency.
**Speaker A**：这是有先例的。比如在美国内战期间，亚伯拉罕·林肯就曾中止过人身保护令（habeas corpus），而人身保护权本身就是美国宪法所赋予的一项宪法权利。在第二次世界大战期间，富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福（Franklin Delano Roosevelt）也做过许多违宪的事情，例如将日裔人口集中关押在集中营里。对此最高法院根本无能为力，因为美国政治在很大程度上依赖于惯例，依赖于大家共同约定的社会规范。但如果某位美国总统直接表示“去他的惯例吧”，那么其他人对此其实毫无办法。
Original English **Speaker A**: It's precedent. Um so for example during the American civil war Abraham Lincoln was able to suspend habeas corpus which is a constitutional right in the US constitution. And during World War II Franklin Delano Roosevelt also did many unconstitutional things. for example, interning the Japanese population uh in camps. [snorts] There's nothing the Supreme Court could do against uh this uh because a lot of US politics is convention. It's agreed upon norms. But if a US president is like, well, screw these conventions. There's nothing anyone else can do about it.
### 地方与联邦冲突：纽约市可能面临的围困 **Speaker A**：好，那么我们不妨假设——仅仅为了进行推演和讨论——特朗普真的获得了第三任期。接下来将会发生的情况是，那些民主党主政的城市将会爆发公开的反抗。这意味着它们将拒绝向联邦政府缴纳税款，同时它们也不会允许美国移民及海关执法局（ICE）的联邦执法特工进入他们的城市，这就会在地方执法部门与联邦执法部门之间引发直接冲突。 从历史上看，如果发生这种情况，美国总统通常会认为自己有责任去平息这场叛乱，对吧？因此，随着时间的推移，这可能会演变成对纽约市的围困。届时联邦军队可能会联合来自其他州（可能是支持特朗普的红州）的民兵部队，他们会试图通过切断纽约市的食品供应和水资源供应来围困纽约市。而这将会是一场可能持续数年之久的冲突。
Original English **Speaker A**: All right. So let's imagine, okay, just for the sake of this argument, Trump gets a third term. What will happen is these cities that are democratic will be an open revolt, meaning they will refuse to pay taxes to the federal government, but they will also not welcome ICE federal agents into their cities, which creates conflict between local law enforcement and federal law enforcement. And historically, if that were to happen then the president, US president usually thinks that he has responsibility to quash this insurrection, right? And so this would over time lead to the siege of New York City where maybe federal forces along with possibly militias from other states, possibly red states that favor Trump. They would try to besiege New York City by cutting off the food supply and water supply to New York City. And this will be a conflict that could go on for years and years.
**Speaker B**：那这会在哪一年发生？
Original English **Speaker B**: And what year would that take place?
**Speaker A**：2028年。这完全可能在特朗普确保获得第三任期之后立即发生。
Original English **Speaker A**: 2028. It could happen right after um Trump secures his third term.
### 围绕第三任期的百元打赌 **Speaker B**：你真的认为特朗普会获得第三任期吗？
Original English **Speaker B**: Do you think Trump is going to have a third term?
**Speaker A**：你想打个赌吗？
Original English **Speaker A**: Um do you want to bet?
**Speaker B**：好啊。
Original English **Speaker B**: Yeah,
**Speaker A**：我认为他会获得第三任期。
Original English **Speaker A**: I think he'll get a third term.
**Speaker B**：你想赌多少钱？
Original English **Speaker B**: How much you want to bet?
**Speaker A**：我们就当成朋友间的小赌注，100美元怎么样？
Original English **Speaker A**: Let's take a friend bet and say $100.
**Speaker B**：你知道吗，我之前提过这件事，几年前我确实在Facebook上和两个素不相识的家伙打过赌。我自己平时不用Facebook，但几年前我和上面认识的两个人打了赌。他们在唐纳德·特朗普输给乔·拜登之后告诉我，特朗普依然会继续掌权。当时我说：“他绝对不可能继续掌权。” 他们坚称：“不，他一定会继续掌权。”接着他们向我提出打赌，说：“每人1000英镑，我们跟你赌他一定会留任。”他们就像是QAnon阴谋论的那帮信徒。我说：“行。”结果等特朗普真正下台离开白宫之后，他们确实把钱付给我了，每人给我转了1000美元。后来我把这笔钱全捐给了慈善机构。所以如果你想打赌的话，我非常乐意再跟你赌一场。
Original English **Speaker B**: Do you know said this before, but I actually did have a bet with two random guys on Facebook. I don't use Facebook, but I had to bet with two random guys on Facebook a couple of years ago. They told me that after Donald Trump had lost the election to Joe Biden, they told me that he was going to stay in power. And so I said, "There's no way he stays in power." And they said, "No, he will." So they and then they offered me a bet. They said, "£1,000 each. We bet you he's going to stay in power." They were like QAnon people. And I said, "Fine." And they actually did pay me when he came out of power. They transferred me $1,000 each. I gave it to charity. But so I'm more than happy to make another bet if you want to make a bet.
**Speaker A**：行，那就来吧。100美元。100美元。
Original English **Speaker A**: Yeah, let's do it. $100. $100.
**Speaker B**：100美元。所以你赌的是特朗普会拿到第三任期？
Original English **Speaker B**: $100. And you're betting that Trump gets a third term?
**Speaker A**：是的。我认为在2028年之后他依然会执掌大权。这么界定公平吧？就是说在2028年之后他依然处于权力之位。
Original English **Speaker A**: Yes. I think he'll be in power after 2028. Is that fair? Like like he'll be in power after 2028.
**Speaker B**：大选是什么时候举行？
Original English **Speaker B**: When's the election?
**Speaker A**：大选应该是在2028年11月4日。但我并没有说他一定会赢得大选，我只是说他会获得第三任期。
Original English **Speaker A**: Well, the election should be November 4th, 2028. But I didn't say he would win the election. I just said he would get a third term.
**Speaker B**：所以你的意思是，他要么会拒绝离开白宫，要么会找到某种别的途径在就职典礼日期之后继续留任总统？
Original English **Speaker B**: So, you're saying that he will refuse to leave office or find another way to remain president beyond the date of the inauguration?
**Speaker A**：是的。我的意思是，在2029年1月21日，特朗普依然会坐在白宫里。
Original English **Speaker A**: Yes. I'm saying that uh on January 21, 2029, Trump will still be in the White House.
**Speaker B**：好，我接下这个赌注了。
Original English **Speaker B**: Okay, I'll take that bet.
**Speaker A**：行，大家都明确了。到时候大伙儿可一定要提醒我去兑现赌金啊。
Original English **Speaker A**: Okay, if everyone's clear. And please do uh remind me to cash in, lads.
**Speaker B**：100美元。
Original English **Speaker B**: $100.
**Speaker A**：好的，【笑声】虽然到那时候100美元可能已经不值什么钱了，但赌注就是100美元。没问题。
Original English **Speaker A**: Okay, [laughter] $100 may not be worth anything at that time, but that's $100. Okay.
**Speaker B**：好的。
Original English **Speaker B**: Okay.
### 特朗普的充沛精力与纽约市的潜在抗争 **Speaker A**：好。所以我们再次为了讨论而设定这一假设：特朗普处于第三任期执政中。届时全美各地都会出现政治暴力，首当其冲的就是纽约市。如果联邦权威受到某个城市或地方州政府权威的公开挑战，总统必然会极其严肃地对待此事，并派遣武装力量去镇压这场叛乱。其他城市可能会顺从得多，但纽约市有一位极具号召力的市长佐兰·马姆达尼（Zohran Mamdani），而且纽约人是绝对不好惹的。当纽约人被激怒时，他们会爆发出极其强烈的愤怒。所以我认为，如果特朗普获得第三任期，纽约市极有可能会遭遇围困。
Original English **Speaker A**: All right. So, again, we are just assuming for the sake of argument that Trump is in office in his third term. There will be political violence uh across United States, primarily in New York City. And if the federal authority is being challenged by a city or local state authority, then the president will take this very seriously and send in forces to quash this insurrection. Maybe other cities will be much more compliant. But New York City has a very charismatic mayor in Zohan Madani and New Yorkers. You don't want to mess with New Yorkers. When they get angry, they get really, really angry. So, so this I think uh is uh very likely if Trump gets a third term, there'd be a siege in New York City.
**Speaker B**：到那个时候他都快83岁了。【轻嗤】
Original English **Speaker B**: He would almost [snorts] be 83 years old.
**Speaker A**：我们确实会这么说，但他身上那种充沛的精力大家有目共睹，对吧？事实摆在眼前：这家伙每天都吃芝士汉堡，几乎每天都召开新闻发布会，整天在社交媒体上发布各种离奇言论。例如，他在推特上发帖宣称整个北美洲现在都属于美国了，不知道你有没有看到过那条内容；他还高调谈论要接管加拿大、格陵兰岛和古巴。所以我真不知道他的精力究竟是从哪里来的，但他看起来确实极其精力充沛。不知道你有没有采访过奥巴马？
Original English **Speaker A**: I mean, we say that, but like the amount of energy he has, right? The fact of the matter is the guy eats cheeseburgers every day. He gives a press conference almost every day. He's always on social media tweeting out something stupid. For example, he's tweeted out that, you know, all of North America is now the USA. I'm not sure if you've seen that yet. And he's talking about taking over Canada and Greenland and Cuba. So, I don't know where he gets his his energy, but he seems really energetic. I'm not sure if you've ever interviewed Obama.
**Speaker B**：我采访过米歇尔·奥巴马。
Original English **Speaker B**: Michelle Obama.
**Speaker A**：好的。但是如果你看看2008年奥巴马的照片，他在2008年时是一位非常英俊、年轻且充满活力的男人。快进八年之后，他卸任时整个人看起来极其苍老憔悴。他在总统任期内仿佛一下子老了至少20岁。然而唐纳德·特朗普出于某种原因，看起来却并没有显老多少。
Original English **Speaker A**: Okay. But like if you just look at the picture of Obama in 2008, he was a really handsome, really young, very vibrant man in 2008. You fast forward eight years and he came out just decrepit. Okay, he had aged like at least 20 years in his office. [snorts] Donald Trump, for whatever reason, has not aged that much.
**Speaker B**：那是因为染发剂和人造美黑喷雾。
Original English **Speaker B**: hair dye and fake tan.
**Speaker A**：唐纳德·特朗普身上有一种非常奇怪的特质：华盛顿特区的很多美国记者都有他的直接个人手机号码，他们随时可以给他打电话，而且一聊就是整整一个小时。要知道，这家伙可是美利坚合众国的总统啊！如果你只是一名普通的华盛顿记者，你居然可以每天打电话跟他聊上一个小时。有些记者去白宫采访他，事后表示：“我们大概在一小时前就想结束离开了，但他硬是拉着我们留下来继续聊，根本不让我们走。”所以我真不知道他这种能量是从哪里来的，但他确实极度精力充沛，而且他极其享受这种外界的关注。
Original English **Speaker A**: So, there's something really weird about Donald Trump, which is a lot of US journalists in Washington DC have his direct personal cell phone number and they can call him and they will talk for an hour. Like the guy is the president of the United States. And if you are just an average Washington journalist, you can call him and talk to him for for an hour a day. There are journalists who go to the White House to interview him and says like we try to like leave like an hour ago, but he he made us stay and talk to him some more. He would not let us leave. So I don't know where he gets his energy from, but he's extreme extremely energetic and he loves that attention.
### 第二项预测：针对美国金融基础设施的新型袭击 **Speaker B**：好的。那你的第二项预测是什么？
Original English **Speaker B**: Okay. What's prediction number two?
**Speaker A**：我们现在正临近“9·11”恐怖袭击事件的纪念日，很多人都担心美国会遭受另一次“9·11”式的袭击，原因在于当前存在许多对美国抱有极深敌意并可能企图向美国人民实施报复的行为体。在这种情况下，如果美国真的遭受另一次“9·11”级别的打击，我相信那将会是对美国金融基础设施的袭击。 好，请允许我解释一下我的推理逻辑。“9·11”事件究竟是什么？“9·11”是恐怖分子为了给全体国民造成深刻心理创伤，进而诱发自我毁灭性暴力而采取的行动。这样表述准确吗？
Original English **Speaker A**: So again, we are approaching the anniversary of 911 and there are a lot of people who fear there will be another 911 attack on the United States just because you have a lot of actors that are very angry at the United States and who may want to seek vengeance against the American people. In that case, if there is another 911 attack on the United States, I believe it will be an attack on the US financial infrastructure. Okay. So, let me explain my reasoning. What was 911? 911 was an act committed by terrorists in order to traumatize the population into self-destructive violence. Is that a fair statement?
**Speaker B**：这个我不太确定，当时确实是……？
Original English **Speaker B**: I don't really know. Is that was that the
**Speaker A**：我们来深入剖析一下这个论断：“9·11”事件是一场旨在使美国民众遭受严重心理创伤并诱使其陷入自我毁灭性暴力的图谋。我的意思是，袭击者瞄准了代表美国力量的核心象征符号——比如这些民航客机……
Original English **Speaker A**: So, let's parse the statement. 911 was an attempt to traumatize the American population into selfdestructive violence. What I mean by that is you're taking the symbols of American power, which are like these airplanes
**Speaker B**：以及双子塔。这些都是美国实力的象征。
Original English **Speaker B**: as well as the Twin Towers. These are symbols of American power
**Speaker A**：还有五角大楼。
Original English **Speaker A**: and the Pentagon.
**Speaker B**：还有五角大楼和白宫，把它们彻底摧毁。
Original English **Speaker B**: And the Pentagon and the White House and you're destroying them.
**Speaker A**：在极其漫长的岁月里，美国人民一直坚信这些都是美国坚不可摧、不可战胜的象征——我们的客机、五角大楼、世贸双子塔。亲眼目睹它们以那样的方式被毁灭，必然会对全体国民造成巨大的创伤。事实上，它确实给无数人带来了持久的心理创伤。而恐怖分子的核心意图，就是通过创伤将美国诱入一种自我毁灭性的暴力循环中，这意味着美国人民渴望复仇。 于是美国采取了什么行动？他们开赴中东，在阿富汗与塔利班作战，随后又去进攻伊拉克，紧接着战火进一步蔓延到叙利亚、利比亚。我们可以说，在中东长达二十年的“无休止战争”给美国自身带来了极大的毁灭性后果。它造成了庞大的财政赤字，导致美军的声誉和威信大幅跌落，引发了华盛顿特区内部严重的腐败，对美国的发展造成了极其恶劣的影响。所以，如果你站在恐怖分子的角度回顾“9·11”……
Original English **Speaker A**: And for the longest time, American people believed that these are symbols of American invisibility, our planes, our the Pentagon, the Twin Towers. And to see them destroyed like that would traumatize the population. In fact, it did traumatize many, many people. And the idea is you traumatize them into a self-destructive violence, which means like they want vengeance. And so what did they do? They went to the Middle East, fought against the Taliban and Afghanistan, then went to attack Iraq, then this war spread to Syria, Libya, and we can say that these 20 years of these forever wars in the Middle East have been very destructive for the United States. It's caused a huge fiscal deficit. It's caused uh the American military to lose a lot of prestige. It's caused a lot of corruption in Washington DC. It's been very bad for the United States. All right. So, if you're at the terrorist and you look at 911, you're
### 思想实验：针对金融基础设施的新型袭击 **Guest**：比如，恐怖分子可能会想：“好吧，我也想达到同样的目的，也就是通过重创人们的心灵，促使他们陷入自我毁灭性的暴力之中。那我该怎么做呢？我必须给他们制造巨大的心理创伤，对吧？但如果我再去劫持飞机撞击新的世贸双子塔，已经起不到那种效果了，因为大家对此已经习惯了，公众对这种形式的暴力已经脱敏了。那么，我该如何向大众施加创伤呢？”其实有各种各样的手段可供选择。我们不妨来做个思想实验：假设某天清晨，你打开 iPhone 准备去买杯咖啡，你刷手机支付却显示读取失败，你心想可能是银行系统出了点小状况。你给银行打电话，却连一袋食物都买不了。经过数小时极度的焦虑与恐慌后，你终于得知——美国核心的金融数据服务器遭到了袭击。你银行账户里的所有积蓄瞬间归零，而且官方根本不知道何时才能恢复，也不知道需要耗费多久才能找回数据。遇到这种情况，你会感到……
Original English **Guest**: like, "Okay, well, I want to do the same thing, which is like I want to traumatize people into self-destructive violence. How can I do so? Well, I need to traumatize them, right? Me flying planes into the new the the new twin towers doesn't do that because people are now used to they've they've been normalized into this sort of violence. So how can I induce trauma into people? Well, there are different possibilities you can use, right? So let's do a thought experiment. What would happen if one day you open your iPhone and you're looking to buy a coffee? Well, you scan your iPhone and it doesn't read and you're like, well, there might be a problem with the bank. You call the bank. you can't get food to the bag. And like after hours and hours of frantic anxiety, you finally recognize that there's an attack on critical US financial data servers. And so all the money in your bank account has been wiped out and they don't know when or how long it will take them to retrieve it. Would you feel
**Host**：担忧？
Original English **Host**: >> concern?
**Guest**：我认为你感受到的绝不仅仅是担忧。我觉得你会感到出离的愤怒、极度的焦虑与无比的绝望挫败。
Original English **Guest**: I would say you would feel more than concern. I would say you would feel a lot of anger and anxiety and frustration.
**Host**：但要做到这一点肯定极其困难吧。如果要摧毁所有人的金融基础设施，并且持续足够长的时间，以至于人们在现实生活中真正感受到实质性的毁灭后果，那绝对是一项艰巨的任务。
Original English **Host**: >> That must be hard to do. Surely taking out the financial infrastructure for everybody for a long enough period of time where they start to feel real world consequences.
**Guest**：那你觉得当年策划并实施“9·11”事件难度大不大？
Original English **Guest**: >> Would you say 911 was hard to do?
**Host**：确实很难。
Original English **Host**: >> Yeah,
**Guest**：我也这么认为。但我完全能够想象他们会采取这种手段。这类人具备某种险恶的创造力，我绝不会排除这种可能性。我的意思是，如果未来真的再次发生类似“9·11”级别的重大袭击事件，我们很可能会目睹美国金融基础设施的彻底毁灭，而这将会把数以千万计的普通民众逼入癫狂的境地。试想一下，你辛辛苦苦打拼了一辈子，好不容易攒下了200万美元，那可是你全部的养老钱啊。
Original English **Guest**: >> I would say so as well. I can possibly imagine them doing this. So there is certain creativity to these people and I would not rule that out. But I'm just saying if another 911 happens, it is possible what we'll see is the destruction of the US financial infrastructure, which would drive millions of people into a mad frenzy. You've worked your entire life to save up $2 million. That $2 million is your retirement.
### 中场赞助与入境美国的遭遇 **Host**：在过去，自主创业往往伴随着极其巨大的风险。但如今的世界已经彻底改变了。如果你脑海中有一个挥之不去的商业构想，我认为你无论如何都应该为自己争取一次机会，去尝试将它变成现实。这正是我们本期节目赞助商 Shopify 大显身手的地方。他们智能化的商业平台汇集了你开启销售、落地创意所需的一切工具。平台不仅提供直观的拖拽式页面编辑器，还配备了强大的 AI 智能助手来为你提供全方位支持；内置的专业数据分析功能，让你哪怕没有任何专业背景也能轻松上手。Shopify 业界顶尖的结账结算系统，能确保你从开业第一天起就能顺利收款。它之所以能助力更多客户顺畅完成购买，是因为其结账流程极其高效，并且能够安全保存客户信息以便下次复购。这种个性化的高效结账体验，意味着更高的转化率，也意味着业务更快的增长。没有什么比在迈出创业第一步时就遭遇繁琐、复杂或昂贵的阻碍更能扼杀最初的热情了。你必须最大限度地节省时间和金钱，从而将所有精力集中在真正拓展业务上。而这正是 Shopify 能够为你提供的价值。现在就前往 shopify.com/bartlet 立即开启你的免费试用吧。 话说回来，你在刚开场时曾向我提到，你最近在入境美国时遇到了一些麻烦。
Original English **Host**: It used to be that working for yourself was a massive, massive risk. But that world has completely changed. If you've got a business idea that you can't stop thinking about, I think you owe it to yourself to at least try and make it happen. And that is where our show sponsor Shopify comes in. Their smart platform includes everything you need to start selling and get that idea off the ground. They have this drag and drop editor. They have this AI sidekick and helps you. They have analytics and you don't need to be an expert to get going. Shopify's best-in-class checkout makes sure that you're getting paid from day one. It helps more of your customers finish their purchase because their checkout is so efficient and it saves their info for next time. Personalized checkouts like that equal more conversion, equal a faster growing business. Nothing kills that early enthusiasm you have for a new idea than that first initial step to get going being difficult, complicated, or expensive. And you need to save as much time and money so that you can focus all of it on growing your actual business. And that's what Shopify gives you. Head over to shopify.com/bartlet and you can start your free trial right now. You said to me at the top of the conversation you're having difficulty getting back into the United States recently.
**Guest**：是的。
Original English **Guest**: >> Yes.
**Host**：这具体是指什么呢？
Original English **Host**: What do you mean by that?
### 多伦多边境海关与二次审查风波 **Guest**：我想是因为很多人非常反感我的言论。可以说，我现在是全世界最具争议的人物之一。事情的经过是这样的：今年三月爆发了针对伊朗的军事冲突，这也让我名声大噪。当时我其实非常担忧，害怕这种名气会惹恼并激怒许多美国人，所以我当时决定近期坚决不去美国，因为我很有可能一落地就会被海关扣押，甚至直接被驱逐出境。那段时间对我来说极其恐怖不安。因此，我回绝了所有前往美国的邀请，尽管当时有不少人极力希望我能飞去美国接受采访。后来到了夏天，战事逐渐有所平息。我想着，好吧，那我先飞回加拿大看望家人。我在多伦多期间，打算尝试从多伦多乘飞机入境美国。 于是在8月5日那天，我前往多伦多皮尔逊国际机场。当时大概是早上7点左右，因为我订了一大早飞往洛杉矶的航班。[轻笑] 我向海关人员说明我是要去参加西奥·冯（Theo Von）的节目访谈，并打算在美国停留两周——这些全都是大实话。在海关通关时，移民官员问了我许多问题，我都应对得非常从容顺畅。然而接着他问我：“你带了关于你儿子的出行许可授权信吗？”因为我8岁的儿子克里斯（Chris）当时正和我一同出行。我一头雾水地问：“什么是出行许可信？”而且再说一遍，当时才早上7点，我的大脑完全还没清醒过来。官员对我说：“打电话问你妻子。”我说：“行吧。”于是我试着联系妻子，结果她当时正在洗澡没接电话。移民官员随即表示：“那好，你必须去二次审查室（Secondary Inspection）接受深入盘查，以确保你儿子克里斯是自愿随你同行的。” 于是我们就进了二次审查区。当时大约早上7点，而我的航班是8点半起飞，我们干等了差不多一个小时。我当时慌得不行，因为眼看就要赶不上飞机了。在那等待的一个小时里，我一直在给妻子发短信，她随后把孩子的出生证明以及证明克里斯确系我亲生儿子所需的所有佐证材料全发给了我。直到最后一刻我们才被叫号，在短短一分钟之内，我把所有问题都顺利解释清楚了。我再次向对方说明我是去录制西奥·冯的节目，并将在美国停留两周。 顺利入境美国后，我又收到了其他播客节目的采访邀约，于是便在美国各地辗转奔波。在这个过程中，我完全把对移民局许下的“只待两周”的承诺抛到脑后了。因为我不确定你是否了解相关法律，作为加拿大公民，我入境美国是不需要签证的。通常情况下，即便你口头说来待两周，实际上待了一个月，也根本不会算作什么问题。之后我回到了多伦多，这次又准备再次入境来录制你这期播客。昨天我做足了准备，带齐了出行许可信，也带了我儿子的出生证明。可当我来到移民官员面前时，他们竟然依然把我送进了二次审查室。但我认为这背后的根本原因在于：我在之前的播客采访中发表的某些言论，激怒了美国某些真正权势滔天的人物。
Original English **Guest**: >> So I think there are a lot of people who do not like what I'm saying. I would say I am one of the most polarizing figures in the world right now. So, uh, the story is that the Iran war happened in March and it made me famous and I was really afraid that this fame would annoy and frustrate a lot of Americans and so I uh decided that I should not actually go to United States at this point because it's most likely that I come here and I could be held in detention by customs. I could be deported. And so that time period was uh extremely um scary for me. And I I refused all offers to come to United States. There were quite a few people who wanted me to fly United States to be interviewed. So then what happened is over the summer the war started to die down. thought, okay, let me fly to Canada where my family is. And I'm in Toronto and I'm going to try to enter United States by ear from Toronto. So on August 5th, I went to to the Toronto airport, Pearson. It was like 7:00 in the morning because I had an early flight to Los Angeles. [snorts] I told them that I was going to go on the Theo Von show for and I'll be in the United States for 2 weeks. Uh which was all true. So, so when when I'm at customs, the immigration officer asked me a lot of questions, but I I handle all these questions pretty smoothly. Then he asked me, "Do you have a travel letter for your son?" Because my son Chris, who's 8 years old, he's traveling with me. And I'm like, "What is a travel letter?" And again, this this like 7:00 in the morning, so my brain's not working. He's like, "Call your wife." Like, "Okay." So, I try to call my wife. My wife is in the shower. And so then the immigration officer says, "Okay, you have you have to go into secondary to be interrogated to make sure that your son Chris is traveling with you willingly." So we go to we go to into secondary and it's like 7:00 in the morning and my flight's at 8:30 and we're waiting for like an hour and I'm freaking out because it seems like we're we'll miss our flight. And during this hour I'm texting my wife and she's given me the birth certificate. She's given me all the materials I need to prove that this son that Chris is is my son. And then um at the very last minute we get called and a minute a minute I'm able to resolve the issue. And I tell him I'm going to go on the field von show and uh I'll be there for two weeks. So, I'm in the United States and I get contact from other podcasts to do interviews and I travel around the United States and I I forget about the two week promise to the um immigration authorities because uh I'm not sure if you know the law but I'm Canadian I'm I'm a Canadian citizen and therefore I don't need a visa to come United States. You know, if if you say I'm coming for two weeks but you stay a month, it's usually not an issue. I go back to Toronto and I come back to do this podcast. And so yesterday I am put in yesterday I'm ready. Okay. I have my travel letter. I have my son's birth birth certificate and I go to immigration officer and they still put me in uh secondary. But basically, I think what happened was I said certain things during my podcast interviews that piss off some really powerful people in the United States.
### “彻底决裂备忘录”与帝国黄昏的言论打压 **Guest**：我谈到的很多内容都涉及一份名为《彻底决裂备忘录》（A Clean Break Memo）的文件，你手头应该也有这份资料。这份备忘录发表于1996年，它详细制定了一项战略规划，旨在让以色列成为中东地区占绝对主导地位的霸权国家。该备忘录由一个研究小组起草，该小组成员中包括两位关键人物——理查德·珀尔（Richard Perle）和道格拉斯·费斯（Douglas Feith）。这两位后来在乔治·W·布什政府时期双双进入五角大楼任职，他们与保罗·沃尔福威茨（Paul Wolfowitz）一起，成为了伊拉克战争的核心幕后策划者。我在节目中指名道姓地揭露了这些人，并深入剖析了当下的对伊战争是如何步步遵循《彻底决裂备忘录》的既定路线推进的，其终极目标就是将以色列确立为中东区域霸权。我认为正是这些言论让我招致了巨大的麻烦。
Original English **Guest**: A lot of things that I said were related to something called the clean brick memo, which you have. The Queen Greek memo was published in 1996 and it laid out a plan for how Israel can become the dominant hegeimad in the Middle East. It's written by a study group and part of the study group there were two individuals. They were Richard Pearl and others five. These two would in the George W administration sorry George W. Bush administration go working in the Pentagon and these two along with Paul Wolfitz were the chief architects of Iraq war. So I named these people and I explained how this war in Iran follows from the clean brick memo and the goal is to establish Israel as the regional hedgeimon and I think this is what got me into a lot of trouble.
**Host**：你为什么觉得是因为这些言论才让你惹上大麻烦的？
Original English **Host**: >> Why do you think that got you into a lot of trouble?
**Guest**：因为我是加拿大公民，以往入境美国时海关基本上从来不会为难我。这次他们如此大费周折地盘查我，我认为极有可能是某些高层官员直接下达了指令，要求在我每次入境美国时都必须进行二次深度审查。我之所以如此笃定，也是因为我有一位好友叫麦克斯·布鲁门塔尔（Max Blumenthal），他是一位非常优秀的美国资深调查记者。他之前在伊朗实地报道莱希总统的葬礼，结果社交媒体网红劳拉·卢默（Laura Loomer）公开发文叫嚣要求逮捕他。果不其然，当麦克斯返回美国入境时——顺便提一句，他本身就是美国公民——他的电子设备被海关强行扣押了。如今麦克斯正在起诉美国国土安全部，指控其非法没收他的私人设备。 因此我认为，我们正身处一个极其不幸的时代：这个帝国正在走向衰落，但出于傲慢与自负，他们非但不愿虚心倾听我们建设性的批评意见，反而竭尽全力去封杀和压制批评者的声音。
Original English **Guest**: >> Because I'm a Canadian. when I come into the country, they usually don't bother me. And so for them to question me, I think it was because some top officials basically requested that I be put in secondary every time I come to the United States. And I I also believe this because I have a friend Max Bumantho who is a very good US journalist and he was in Iran covering Kam's funeral. In response um a social media influencer named Laura Loomer demanded his arrest. And so when Maxville came into the country and he is a US citizen by the way, his devices were confiscated. And now Max Bumo is suing the Department of Homeland Security for illegally uh confiscating his devices. And so I think that we live in a time when unfortunately the empire is in decline and because of hubris and arrogance they are trying to silence their critics rather than accept our constructive criticisms.
**Host**：明白了，所以这目前还是你的一个推论。
Original English **Host**: >> Okay. So it's a theory.
**Guest**：当然，完全没错。他们从来没有正面告诉我为什么要把我送进二次审查，但那位审查官员曾私下向我暗示过，只要我每次……
Original English **Guest**: >> Absolutely. Right. They never told me why I was put in secondary, but he hinted at me that every time I
### 美国签证经历与第三个预测：梅西当选阿根廷总统 **嘉宾**：……来到美国时，我会被带到二次检查室（小黑屋），以确保我入境美国有合法的理由。此外，他还向我暗示，一旦我的 I-94 表格在 6 个月后到期，他们有可能不会予以续签，这意味着他们将不再允许我进入这个国家。我真的希望能再次回到美国。我对美国人民怀有最深沉的敬佩之情。我认为美国人是世界上最开放、最慷慨的人民。但与此同时，我也深刻体会到，我们正生活在一个非常风云变幻的时代。
Original English **Speaker A**: ...come to United States, I will be put into secondary to make sure that I'm coming United States for legitimate reasons. Also, he hinted at me that it is possible that once my I-94 expires in 6 months, they will not renew it, meaning they will not allow me in the country anymore. I hope I come back to United States. I have the deepest admiration for the American people. I think that the Americans are the most open and generous people in the world. But at the same time, I do appreciate that we are living in very interesting times.
**主持人**：请讲第三个预测。
Original English **Speaker B**: Prediction three.
**嘉宾**：好的，我的第三个预测是：利昂内尔·梅西（Lionel Messi）将成为阿根廷总统。
Original English **Speaker A**: Okay. My third prediction is that Lionel Messi will become president of Argentina.
**主持人**：哇，这可完全出乎我的意料。
Original English **Speaker B**: Oh wow. I wasn't expecting that.
**嘉宾**：是的。我想提出三个既有趣又引人入胜的新预测供我们探讨。我之所以做出这个预测，是因为阿根廷目前正在与美国以及以色列开展非常紧密的合作。你是一位英国公民，所以你一定很清楚，阿根廷最近再次要求归还福克兰群岛（马尔维纳斯群岛）。唐纳德·特朗普也公开表达了对阿根廷的支持。 因此我不禁思考，他们为什么突然对福克兰群岛如此关注？不仅如此，如果你一直关注国际新闻的话，哈维尔·米莱（Javier Milei）与本雅明·内塔尼亚胡（Benjamin Netanyahu）走得非常近。阿根廷与以色列之间建立了极其牢固的关系。事实上，阿根廷正在积极欢迎来自以色列的投资以及以色列人移民阿根廷。 而且据了解，如果你是以色列公民并前往阿根廷——这一点大家也可以去核实，但据我掌握的情况——你可以立即享受当地的医疗保健体系以及养老金待遇，这在常理上其实根本说不通，因为他们并不是阿根廷公民，对吧？因此，种种迹象表明，阿根廷正在与以色列和美国开展极其深度的合作。 我之所以认为阿根廷与以色列走得如此之近，背后的深层原因在于：目前以色列国内几乎处于一场内战边缘——一方是坚信中东战争将开启末日时代并迎来弥赛亚降临的弥赛亚派犹太人，另一方则是认为“这群人彻底疯了”的世俗派犹太人。 因此，解决这场内部冲突的唯一途径，就是将世俗派犹太人转移、输出到其他地方。在我看来，阿根廷就是安置这些世俗派犹太人极其理想的目的地。但是紧接着你就会面临一个问题：如何才能让阿根廷人民接受从以色列大规模涌入的移民呢？因为以色列在阿根廷民间的声誉并不算很好。 我认为最好的解决办法，就是让利昂内尔·梅西出任阿根廷总统，凭借他那无与伦比的国民声望，足以说服阿根廷接纳所有这些以色列移民。再加上收复福克兰群岛这一历史功绩，对吧？这两件事结合在一起——阿根廷人眼中的“球神”成为总统，同时阿根廷从英国人手中夺回了福克兰群岛。顺便说一句，作为英国公民，我在此向你表达歉意。
Original English **Speaker A**: Yeah. So I wanted three new predictions that were fun and interesting for us to discuss. So why I make this prediction is that Argentina is working very closely with the United States and Israel at this moment. You are a British citizen, so you will appreciate that Argentina has recently demanded the return of the Falklands. And Donald Trump has voiced support to Argentina. So I'm asking myself, why are they so concerned about the Falklands? And not only that, but if you've been following the news, Javier Milei has become very close with Benjamin Netanyahu. Argentina and Israel have very strong relations. In fact, Argentina is welcoming Israeli investment and immigration into Argentina. And apparently if you are an Israeli citizen and you go into Argentina—and again you can fact-check this, but from what I understand—you have immediate access to their healthcare as well as pension, which makes actually no sense because they're not Argentina citizens, right? So it seems very much that Argentina is working very close with Israel and the United States. And the reason why I think that is and Argentina are working very close together is right now there's almost a civil war in Israel, between Messianic Jews who believe this war in the Middle East will usher in the end times and the coming of the Messiah, and secular Jews who are like, "These people are insane." And so, the only way to resolve this conflict is by exporting secular Jews elsewhere. And it seems to me, Argentina is a very good place to export them. So, but then you're like, okay, how do you get the people of Argentina to accept this massive immigration into Argentina from Israel? Because Israel is not very popular in Argentina. I think the best way is to make Lionel Messi the president of Argentina and his popularity will be enough to let all these Israelis into the country. Him as well as the reclaiming of the Falkland Islands, right? These two things, you know, the God of Argentina becomes president and Argentina reclaims the Falklands from the British. And I apologize to you as a British citizen.
### 中日地缘矛盾与历史生存模式 **主持人**：没关系，我很喜欢梅西。另外，你之前也跟我提过，你认为日本将与中国爆发战争，或者说中国将与日本走向战争。
Original English **Speaker B**: It's okay. I like Messi. Um, you also mentioned to me that you think Japan is going to go to war with China. Well, China is going to go to war with Japan.
**嘉宾**：是的。
Original English **Speaker A**: Yes.
**主持人**：是什么让你产生这种看法的？
Original English **Speaker B**: What makes you think that?
**嘉宾**：因为每一个中国人都坚信这一点。[笑声]
Original English **Speaker A**: Well, because every Chinese believes this. [laughter]
**嘉宾**：是的。这是最耐人寻味的一点：长期以来，西方普遍认为中国最终会武力攻打台湾。这是西方社会非常普遍的一种共识。但如果你真正去到中国，无论是大陆民众还是台湾民众，其实没有多少人真正相信会发生这种入侵，因为这根本不是中国开展外交政策与实现目标的实际行为方式。中国不会主动去入侵别国，而且在近代历史中，中国并没有表现出那种扩张性侵略倾向。中国经历的上一场对外战争还是对越自卫反击战，那是早在 1980 年代初中期的事情了。所以这已经过去了很长时间。 但如果你今天去中国，所有人却都认为中日之间必有一战。要理解这一逻辑，你必须深入了解东南亚的地理格局。
Original English **Speaker A**: Yes. So, it's the funniest thing, but like for the longest time, people believe that China will eventually invade Taiwan. This is what's very commonly accepted in the West. But if you actually go to China, no Chinese actually believes this and no Taiwanese actually believes this because this is not the way that China actually goes about its foreign policy. It does not go and invade other countries or in its most recent history it has not been that aggressive. The last war that China fought was in Vietnam. This was in the mid early 80s. Okay, so this is a long time. But if you go to China today, everyone believes that China and Japan will go to war. And to appreciate this, you have to understand the geography of Southeast Asia.
**主持人**：你需要把地图或示意图投到屏幕上吗？
Original English **Speaker B**: Should you try to throw something up on the screen?
**嘉宾**：好的。我想借助地理格局来阐释，为什么从地缘政治角度来看，中日之间的冲突在现阶段几乎是不可避免的。 我们来看日本与中国。首先必须认识到，这是两个截然不同的国家。中国是一个能够自给自足的大陆强国，而日本则是一个高度依赖海外资源的海洋国家。 在历史上，中国本质上是一个农耕大国；而日本为了在资源匮乏的岛屿上生存，早年不得不依赖海上掠夺与贸易。因此，日本人在历史上一直带有强烈的尚武文化底蕴。他们在极长的时间里拥有武士阶层与武士道传统，内部诸藩长期征战不休。 同时，日本人民展现出了极强的韧性与高度的内部凝聚力，这是因为日本所处的地理环境极其动荡脆弱——地震频发，海啸肆虐。为了在如此严酷的自然灾害中生存下来，整个民族必须紧密团结协作。 理解这一点至关重要，因为当前涉及伊朗等中东局势的战乱正在同时冲击中国和日本。中国或许将不得不经历某种程度的去工业化调整；但对于日本而言，如果毫无作为，那么在未来的 50 年内，日本甚至可能面临从地图上消失的生存危机。 之所以会这样，不仅是因为日本在能源、原材料和各类关键资源上完全依赖海外进口，更因为日本面临着严重的少子老龄化，拥有全球最严峻的老龄化人口结构。在战争动荡时期，一旦美国不再有能力为其提供全方位的安全庇护，日本就必须在周边建立自己的资源供应辐射区。而在历史上，东南亚一直就是日本最为核心的资源供应腹地。 如果失去了对东南亚通道的掌控，美国就会成为日本唯一的能源救济者，而日本绝不希望陷入那种彻底任人摆布的境地。因为在第二次世界大战期间，日本的大部分能源正是来自美国；当美国对日本实施全面石油禁运时，日本被迫孤注一掷向美国开战。 现在也是同样的逻辑：美国确实可以在理论上满足日本所有的能源需求，但那将使日本在政治与经济上完全沦为附庸。因此，日本迫切需要确保自身能够顺畅获取东南亚的战略资源。
Original English **Speaker A**: Yeah. Okay. So, what I want to do is use geography to explain why conflict between China and Japan is inevitable at this point. Okay. So you have Japan, okay? And you have China. Okay. So the first thing to appreciate is that these are two very different countries. China is a land power that is self-sufficient. Japan is a sea power that is dependent on resources from abroad. So historically, China was primarily an agricultural nation. Japan in order to survive engage in piracy. So the Japanese have always been pretty militaristic. They had a samurai culture for the longest time. They were always at war with each other. And the Japanese people are extremely resilient and cohesive because the geography of Japan is very unstable. There's lots of earthquakes. There's lots tsunamis. So they have to work together as a people in order to survive. This is important because this war in Iran is affecting both China and Japan. China will probably have to de-industrialize. But if Japan doesn't do anything, then it's possible in the next 50 years Japan cease to exist. Because not only is Japan dependent on energy and imports and resources from overseas, but has an aging population, it has the most elderly population in the world. So in a time of war, when the United States is no longer able to give you protection, Japan needs to create resource colonies. And historically, Southeast Asia right here has been the main resource colony of Japan. If it doesn't have Southeast Asia, the United States now becomes the main benefactor of Japan. And Japan doesn't want to be in that position because that's what happened in World War II when Japan got most of its energy from the United States. And when the United States embargoed Japan, Japan was forced to declare war on the United States. Okay? Okay. So, United States can provide Japan with all its energy needs, but that would make Japan completely subservient. So, Japan wants to basically access the resources of Southeast Asia.
### 台湾咽喉要道、海上封锁与四国联盟博弈 **嘉宾**：然而这里存在一个巨大的地缘障碍，这个障碍就是台湾。 台湾恰好坐落在南海的关键航道中枢。如果大陆与台湾实现统一，中国大陆虽然不一定会这么做，但它将拥有对日本实施海上贸易禁运和通道切断的战略选项。我并不是说中国一定会对日本实施禁运，但中国将掌握这种能力与筹码。而日本则将这种潜在前景视为对其国家生存的致命威胁。
Original English **Speaker A**: There's a problem though, and that problem is called Taiwan. Taiwan is right in the middle of the South China Sea. And if China and Taiwan were to reunify, what China couldn't do now is embargo Japan. I'm not saying China will do so, but I'm saying that China has the option of doing so. And Japan sees that as a threat to its existence.
**主持人**：你提到了“禁运”（embargo），“禁运”具体指的是什么？
Original English **Speaker B**: say embargo. What does embargo mean?
**嘉宾**：“禁运”在这里的意思就是实施海上全面封锁。
Original English **Speaker A**: Embargo means you blockade. Okay.
**主持人**：但如果他们真的这么做，岂不是会彻底天下大乱？日本肯定会攻击中国，台湾局势也会陷入一片混乱，整个局势都会失控。
Original English **Speaker B**: But if they did this, wouldn't the whole hell would break loose? You know, Japan are going to attack China. Taiwan, it's going to get messy. It's going to impact.
**嘉宾**：我并不是说中国一定会去封锁禁运日本，我是说中国在统一后将具备采取这种行动的战略选择权。
Original English **Speaker A**: I'm not saying that China would embargo Japan, but I'm saying it has the option of doing so.
**主持人**：但你刚才的意思不就是说中国准备去进攻日本吗？
Original English **Speaker B**: But you are saying that China is going to attack Japan.
**嘉宾**：不、不、不，我的意思不是谁单方面发动进攻，而是指这两个国家之间存在着结构性的地缘战略冲突。
Original English **Speaker A**: No, no, no, no. I'm saying there's a conflict between these two nations.
**主持人**：明白了，我刚才还以为你说军事冲突是不可避免的。
Original English **Speaker B**: Okay. I thought you said it was inevitable.
**嘉宾**：是的，冲突不可避免。让我来具体解释这种博弈局面是如何推演和展开的。 在日本看来，台湾问题直接关系到其核心国家安全利益。这正是高市（Takaichi）几个月前所公开发表的立场。而在她发表这番言论时，中方做出了极为强烈的反制反应。以往每年有数以百万计的中国游客赴日旅游，而现在大部分游客已经被限制前往日本。 因此，中日之间围绕台湾问题爆发战略对抗的可能性极高。不过需要明确的是，直接爆发全面热战对该地区的任何国家都没有好处，因为正如你所言，那将引发不可收拾的全面混乱。各方真正需要做的是建立足够的战略威慑筹码，以便在博弈中争取更有利的谈判条件。 所以，日本目前的策略是：清楚自己单凭自身力量无法直接抗衡实力强大的中国，但日本可以通过构建多边同盟体系来形成制衡；甚至在必要时刻，由同盟力量对中国实施反向海上封锁。 正因如此，日本正在积极与菲律宾、澳大利亚以及印度深化同盟关系。即便没有美国的直接介入，这四个国家在理论上也完全有能力在关键海域对中国形成海上封锁与战略牵制。 日本的核心诉求始终是确保通往东南亚的战略通道畅通无阻，因为东南亚是其未来长远发展不可或缺的资源生命线。这就是当前正在上演的地缘博弈大戏。 另一方面，中国本身也并不希望与日本爆发正面冲突。为什么？因为在周边区域各国的眼中，中国被视作体量庞大、令人警惕的力量；一旦中国的举动被外界视为过度激进与挑衅，就会促使整个东南亚国家联合起来共同围堵中国。因此，你现在可以看到印度等国之间的多边联盟正在不断成型……
Original English **Speaker A**: Yes. So let me explain how this would draw, how this will play out. Okay. So, Japan sees Taiwan, the Taiwan issue as vital to its national security interest. And that's what exactly what Prime Minister Taki said a few months ago. And when she made that statement, China overreacted. So before you had millions of tourists from China visiting Japan a year. Now most of them are not allowed to go to Japan. And it's very likely that China and Japan will have a conflict over Taiwan. Now the thing to remember is it does not benefit any nation here to a war because as you point out all chaos would break out. What you need to do is create leverage to negotiate better terms. Okay. So what Japan is doing is saying, okay look, we can't take on China directly because China is too powerful, but what we can do is build alliances to possibly challenge and if we have to embargo China, right? So what Japan is doing is build alliance with the Philippines, and Australia, and India. And together these four nations, even without the United States, they could in theory choose to embargo China, right? What Japan needs is access to Southeast Asia because that will be the main source of its resources going into the future. So that is the scenario being played out. Now China does not want to come into a conflict with Japan. Why? Because China is seen as the big bad dragon in this area, and if China is seen as too provocative, that would basically incentivize all of Southeast Asia to gang up on China. So you can see alliance between India,
### 中日博弈与朝核代理人杠杆 **教授**：在整个亚太格局中，东南亚、台湾、菲律宾、澳大利亚、韩国、朝鲜、日本与中国错综交织。那么，解决这一地缘困局的手段，就是利用代理人来对日本施加直接威胁，从而在与日本的各项谈判中获取更大的战略筹码。而这个显而易见的代理人，当然就是朝鲜。
Original English **Professor**: Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Australia, South Korea, North Korea, Japan versus China. Okay. So the way to resolve this issue is to use a proxy in order to threaten Japan in order to develop more leverage over Japan in negotiations, right? And that proxy of course is North Korea.
**教授**：朝鲜具备直接炮击韩国本土的现实能力，因为绝大多数韩国人口都生活在距离朝韩边境仅20分钟车程的打击范围之内。因此在理论上，朝鲜仅用一天时间就能将首尔夷为平地。事实上，朝鲜的大部分重型火炮都直接部署在边境前沿。此外，朝鲜还可以频繁向日本海发射弹道导弹，以此来震慑和扰乱日本的阵脚。
Original English **Professor**: So, North Korea has the potential to shell South Korea because most of the population of South Korea lives within 20 minutes of North Korea. And so, in theory, North Korea could flatten Seoul in just a day. Okay. Most of North Korean artillery is actually by the border. What North Korea could also do is lob missiles into the Sea of Japan and rattle the Japanese.
**教授**：这就是当前正在上演的地缘博弈：日本主要通过其代理人菲律宾在南海挑战中国的海上主导地位；而中国则会利用朝鲜作为地缘支点与代理人，反向威慑韩国与日本。随着时间的推移，只要美国逐步从亚太地区撤退收缩，中日之间的这一地缘对抗只会变得愈演愈烈。其核心原因在于，尽可能激化中日之间的紧张态势，本身就完全符合美国的最大地缘战略利益。
Original English **Professor**: Okay, so this is the dynamic being played out where Japan through its proxies primarily Philippines is challenging Chinese naval dominance in the South China Sea and China will use North Korea as a proxy to threaten South Korea and Japan. Over time, as the United States retreats from the Asia-Pacific, this conflict between China and Japan will get worse and worse. And the main reason why is it is in the strategic best interest of the United States to ferment as much tension between China and Japan as possible.
**主持人**：但这样做难道不会危及台湾的处境吗？
Original English **Host**: But it could compromise Taiwan.
**教授**：不，谁在乎呢？
Original English **Professor**: No, who cares?
**主持人**：美国真的不在乎台湾吗？
Original English **Host**: The US care about Taiwan?
**教授**：美国确实不在乎。
Original English **Professor**: No, it doesn't.
**主持人**：我一直以为我们所有的先进半导体芯片都是从台湾获取的。
Original English **Host**: I thought that's who we get all of our semiconductors from.
**教授**：但特朗普真正想要做的是什么？他希望台湾把整个半导体产业链全面迁移到美国本土。而这一进程已经在实质性推进了——作为台湾核心半导体企业的台积电，正在美国亚利桑那州投资兴建一座耗资200亿美元的先进制程晶圆厂。因此，如果中日之间爆发冲突、地缘紧张局势不断恶化升级，台湾的半导体产业就将被迫彻底迁往美国，这恰恰完美契合了美国的核心利益。
Original English **Professor**: But what does Trump want to do? He wants the Taiwanese to move their semiconductor industry to the United States. And that's already happening where TSMC, the main semiconductor company in Taiwan, is open a I believe it's 20 billion new factory in Arizona. So if there's a conflict between China and Japan, the tension becomes worse and worse, the Taiwanese semiconductor industry, it would be forced to relocate to the United States, would be in the best interests of the Americans.
### 乌克兰战局演变与欧洲生产基地的地缘锁定 **主持人**：你此前还认为俄罗斯未来有可能会入侵波罗的海国家。
Original English **Host**: You also think that Russia are going to invade the Baltics.
**教授**：是的。好，现在我们把关注焦点转向欧洲大陆。好的，刚才亚太部分的逻辑已经足够清晰了吧？
Original English **Professor**: Yeah. Okay. So now we'll shift focus and go into Europe. All right. Okay. But is this pretty clear?
**主持人**：是的，非常清晰。
Original English **Host**: Yes, it is clear.
**教授**：好的。目前的基本态势是北约和欧洲全力支持乌克兰对抗俄罗斯的战争。这场战争的主战场绝大部分都发生在乌克兰东部。目前俄罗斯似乎在乌东前线夺取了大量领土，但外界所有人都在强调乌克兰展现出了极其顽强的反击能力。
Original English **Professor**: Okay. Right now you have NATO or Europe supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia. Okay. And most of this war is actually happening in eastern Ukraine. And Russia seems to be winning a lot of territory in eastern Ukraine. But everybody's saying that Ukraine are fighting back really, really well.
**教授**：其深层原因在于，乌克兰在过去几个月里采取了全新的战略打法，这彻底改变了这场战争的对抗格局与基本轮廓——乌克兰正在大规模使用远程无人机纵深袭击俄罗斯本土的关键能源与炼油基础设施。
Original English **Professor**: The reason why is what Ukraine has chosen to do in these past few months which has changed the contours of the war is Ukraine is using drones to attack Russia's energy infrastructure.
**主持人**：而且乌克兰对俄罗斯本土广泛目标的持续打击，正在从根本上改变俄罗斯民众对战争的实际感知。
Original English **Host**: And just hitting Russia in general is making the people of Russia change their perception.
**教授**：完全正确。在过去，当战火仅仅局限在乌克兰东部时，它根本波及不到俄罗斯普通民众的日常生活。事实上，那时的战争状态甚至在某种程度上拉动了俄罗斯的经济，因为俄罗斯依然能够顺畅地向全球市场出口大量原油。而现在，乌克兰通过无人机精确打击俄罗斯境内的炼油厂，这直接给俄罗斯民众带来了切实的经济阵痛，也让普京的国内支持率与声望持续承压。
Original English **Professor**: Exactly. Right. So before this conflict was contained to eastern Ukraine, it didn't affect the people of Russia. In fact, it really was helping the economy of Russia because Russia could still export its oil around the world. Now, what Ukraine is doing is using drones to attack the war refineries of Russia, which is causing economic pain on the Russian people and this is making Putin increasingly unpopular. Okay? So, the contour of the war has changed.
**教授**：如果你站在俄罗斯的决策视角来审视这一切，你会意识到真正的敌人根本不是乌克兰，真正的战略对手是欧洲北约各国。为什么？因为乌克兰所使用的无人机与精密武器，实际上是在德国、英国以及其他欧洲国家本土制造的。因此在理论上，乌克兰完全可以把这场战争无休止地打下去，因为它的整套军工制造中心安全地坐落在欧洲本土，而且欧洲还在源源不断地向乌克兰提供几乎无限的资金支持与战场情报支撑。
Original English **Professor**: So if you're Russia and you're looking at this, you think your enemy is not Ukraine. You think your enemy is NATO Europe. Why? Because the drones are being manufactured in Germany and the UK and other places as well. So in theory, Ukraine could fight this war to infinity because its manufacturing hub is in Europe. Europe is also providing Ukraine with infinite financing as well as intelligence. Okay.
### 俄罗斯的战略突围与欧洲全面动员的陷阱 **教授**：站在俄罗斯的立场上，逻辑必然是：“等等，如果继续这样消耗下去，我们在长期的消耗战中绝无获胜的可能，因为我们在同整个欧洲对抗，而欧洲强大的制造业产能全都被北约同盟的安全屏障保护得严严实实。”因此，俄罗斯必须采取的应对策略，就是通过激化事态来迫使北约和欧洲直接下场卷入乌克兰战场，彻底逼迫他们从防御壳里走出来。
Original English **Professor**: So, if you're Russia, you're like, "Wait a minute here. Over time, we can't possibly win this war of attrition because we're funding Europe and Europe's manufacturing capacity is well protected behind the NATO alliance." Okay. So what I need to do is provoke NATO and Europe into coming into Ukraine. Basically force them out of their shell, right?
**教授**：正因如此，过去几个月里德国与俄罗斯之间的暗中对抗与摩擦不断升级。在八月初，德国莱比锡机场发生了无人机袭击事件。德国方面随即指责这是俄罗斯所为，并采取报复措施关闭了俄罗斯驻波恩领事馆，同时驱逐了部分在德俄罗斯人员。作为对等反制，俄罗斯关闭了德国驻圣彼得堡领事馆。俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫甚至公开表示，当前的地缘局势与1941年极其相似。1941年发生了什么？正是德国军队全面入侵苏联。
Original English **Professor**: And so what's been happening is Germany and Russia have been in conflict these past few months. In early August, there's a drone attack on Libig airport. Okay, Libig airport. And the Germans blamed the Russians and in response the Germans closed down the Russian consulate in Bond as well as remove certain Russians from Germany. Russia is retaliating by closing the German consulate in St. Petersburg and the Russian foreign minister Lavrov have said we are in a similar situation to 1941. What happened in 1941? The Germans invaded Russia.
**教授**：换言之，俄罗斯清醒地意识到，如果放任欧洲置身事外、仅将战事局限在乌克兰境内，俄罗斯最终必输无疑。因此，他们必须逼迫并挑衅欧洲，使其不得不进行全社会的大规模军事动员来保卫乌克兰。而实现这一战略目的最直接手段，就是打击欧洲本土的关键制造与工业基础设施。
Original English **Professor**: Okay, so in other words, Russia recognizes that if they just leave Europe alone and just fight this war in Ukraine, they will lose in the end, so they must force and provoke Europe into mass mobilization to defend Ukraine. And one way to do that is by hitting critical manufacturing infrastructure within Europe.
**主持人**：你认为俄罗斯下一步的行动会直接袭击北约内部国家，比如德国、英国等本土目标吗？
Original English **Host**: Do you think Russia's next move is to attack within NATO, Germany, the UK, etc.?
**教授**：它别无选择，在战略上它必须这么做。
Original English **Professor**: It has no choice. It has to do this.
### 美国地缘博弈逻辑与能源垄断诉求 **主持人**：难道俄罗斯就不能直接同特朗普达成某种和平协议吗？比如大家都知道，各方目前都在积极尝试推动协议达成，贾里德·库什纳据传也在极力撮合乌克兰与俄罗斯之间达成停火与和平协议。
Original English **Host**: Can't it just do a deal with Trump? Like, you know, they're trying to do a deal at the moment, aren't they? Jared Kushner is apparently trying to get a deal done between Ukraine and Russia.
**教授**：那么从美国的战略博弈角度来看，美国究竟是希望欧洲与俄罗斯走向和平，还是希望欧洲与俄罗斯陷入全面战争？从纯粹的大国地缘博弈角度来说，维持战争状态对美国显然更有利。为什么？因为只要爆发全面战争，俄罗斯的能源就彻底无法销往海外市场，而美国由此就能在事实上垄断整个西方世界的能源供应。
Original English **Professor**: And so, if the United States, do you want peace between Europe and Russia, or do you want war between Europe and Russia? Well, from a gameplay perspective, you're better off with war. Why? Because if there's war, Russia can't sell its energy overseas. United States has monopoly over energy now, right?
**主持人**：但这同样会引发剧烈的全球动荡。如果欧洲爆发这种烈度的战争，势必也会对美国本土造成巨大的负面冲击。
Original English **Host**: This causes global instability, though. If there's a war here, then it's going to impact the US in a big way.
**教授**：那么当年美国为何还要入侵伊拉克与中东呢？因为在华盛顿的设想中，那本该是一场类似委内瑞拉式的一夜变局：直接对政权首脑实施斩首行动，引发全社会民众起义，随后在当地扶植一个完全顺从、听命于美国的亲西方政权。
Original English **Professor**: Well, then why the United States invade Iran, right? Because they thought it would be an overnight Venezuela situation where you decapitate the leadership, everyone rises up, you have a favorable leader in the country that is subservient to you.
**主持人**：没错，正是如此。这完全符合帝国霸权的典型思维定式，而且我们此前已经反复套用过这种公式。
Original English **Host**: Great. Exactly. And this is exactly how the empire thinks, right? We already used this formula, right? Yeah.
**教授**：如果把这套公式照搬到当前的欧洲局势上，西方决策层的思维便成了：普京不过是一只纸老虎，他在俄罗斯国内极度不受欢迎。只要我们把这场战争再死死拖上两个月，只要我们持续猛烈打击俄罗斯本土的能源基础设施，俄罗斯民众最终就会揭竿而起、推翻普京政权。看，完全是一模一样的狂妄逻辑。
Original English **Professor**: Now, if we apply this formula to Europe situation, then the thinking is, well, Putin is a paper tiger. He is very unpopular at home. If we just force this war for another two months, if we continue to attack the energy infrastructure of Russia, then eventually people will rise up and overthrow Putin. Right? The same logic.
**主持人**：所以照此推论，特朗普实际上希望乌克兰赢得胜利，或者说他希望乌克兰继续保持现有的打击势头？
Original English **Host**: So therefore, Trump wants the Ukraine to win or he wants Ukraine to keep doing what they're doing.
**教授**：特朗普个人对此根本毫不在意。因为欧洲战火烧得越旺，欧洲国家就越是被迫全面依附于美国的能源与军火供应。
Original English **Professor**: Well, Trump personally doesn't care, right? Because the more war there is, the more the Europeans are forced to rely on American energy.
**主持人**：明白了。
Original English **Host**: Okay?
### 全面战争动员与历史转折的临界点 **教授**：所以对于普京而言，他唯一能打破这一死局的做法，就是逼迫欧洲国家全面卷入乌克兰战火。因为在当前的博弈格局下，俄罗斯通往胜利的道路只有唯一一条：那就是在欧洲内部制造最大程度的动荡、分裂与暴力冲突。其核心逻辑在于，一旦欧洲被迫进行全社会的大规模军事动员，欧洲民众宁可选择推翻本国政府，也绝不愿拿起武器奔赴前线与俄罗斯拼命。这便是一套完整的地缘推演理论。
Original English **Professor**: So, if you're Putin, what you need to do is force the Europeans into war in Ukraine. Why? Because there's really only one path to victory in this scenario. The path of victory is to cause instability and violence in Europe. Okay. The idea is if you force Europe to mass mobilize, the people would rather overthrow the government than agree to take up arms against Russia. That's a theory. Okay.
**教授**：但要让这一局面成真，俄罗斯首当其冲需要做的就是在国内宣布进入“全面战争”状态。所谓全面战争，意味着国家与社会体系的全面总动员。我们必须清醒地认识到，迄今为止俄罗斯在法律层面上并未对乌克兰正式宣战，它依然被定性为“特别军事行动”，这意味着俄罗斯目前主要依赖志愿兵和合同兵在打这场仗。而在全面战争状态下，俄罗斯可以动员其全部适龄成年人口。据我们估算，俄罗斯拥有至少三百万随时可被征召入伍的预备役人员。俄罗斯的总动员必然倒逼欧洲走向总动员，而这正是这场战争最可能的走向与终局演变。
Original English **Professor**: But Russia has exactly one path to victory and that is to cause as much instability and violence as possible within Europe. The best way to do that is by forcing the Europeans to mass mobilize their population. Okay? But for that to happen, what Russia needs to do first is declare total war. What total war means is the mass mobilization of your society. So what's important for us to appreciate is so far Russia has not declared war on Ukraine. It is a special military operation which means that Russia is relying on volunteers to fight this war. In a time of total war, Russia could mobilize its ADA population. And we estimate there are at least three million reservists in Russia ready to be called up to arms. Mass mobilization in Russia would force mass mobilization in Europe. And this is how the war will most likely turn out.
**主持人**：听完教授这番分析，感觉未来的地缘冲突只会不断叠加与爆发……
Original English **Host**: I mean I guess the other thing that's I mean listen professor there's sounds like there's a lot of conflict on the way.
**教授**：一场全面加速的历史进程正在不可逆转地上演。
Original English **Professor**: There's an acceleration underway.
**主持人**：那么究竟需要满足怎样的前提条件，我们才能在2036年安然坐在这里，看到中日之间没有爆发毁灭性冲突、中东伊朗局势彻底缓和降温、乌克兰战争要么维持在现状要么实现退潮，从而彻底扭转那份改变历史的激进战略备忘录所设定的轨道？
Original English **Host**: What would have to be true for us to sit here in 2036 and for there not to have been a conflict between China and Japan, for the Iran situation to have cooled off, the Ukraine war is either you know where it is now or it's regressed, the clean memo that's changed history.
**教授**：那么你具体指的是什么？需要具备什么样的先决条件，才能阻止所有这些灾难性前景的逐一发生？
Original English **Professor**: So what are you saying specifically? What would have to be the case for none of these sort of catastrophic things to take place?
**教授**：好的，让我们回到1995年。这份文件最终在1996年正式发表，而正是在那一年，内塔尼亚胡在以色列首次登上权力巅峰……
Original English **Professor**: Okay, in the year 1995, okay, this was published in 1996. Netanyahu came in power in Israel.
### 新自由主义设想与“彻底决裂”战略的起源 **嘉宾**：在1995年和1996年那个时期，我们生活在一个由新自由主义以及所谓的“华盛顿共识”主导的世界里。当时的核心理念是我们建立了一种全新的历史发展模型：只要各国彼此开展自由贸易，消费者只管购买商品，我们就能实现永久和平。这就是所谓的新自由主义与华盛顿共识。比尔·克林顿正是这一理念的主要倡导者。为了实现这种全球和平的构想，他大力推动了《奥斯陆协议》和平进程，试图促成“两国方案”，以此为中东地区带来和平。所谓的“两国方案”，就是巴勒斯坦人和以色列人达成一致、比邻而居。当时的主流思维是，一旦中东实现了和平，一旦建立了“两国方案”，双方就会开始彼此通商。以色列和巴勒斯坦都将被纳入海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会（GCC）的经济圈中，融入全球供应链。一旦繁荣降临到以色列和巴勒斯坦，他们就再也没有理由继续仇恨彼此。这正是当时奥斯陆和平进程的底层逻辑。当时华盛顿的决策者们也是这样理解世界的。他们认为这种模式在中国奏效了，在日本奏效了，在德国也奏效了。日本和德国曾经是极具军国主义色彩的民族国家，但在我们允许它们参与全球贸易、让它们的消费者开上SUV、吹上空调之后，它们就变成了非常热爱和平的人民。既然如此，为什么不能在以色列和巴勒斯坦复制同样的成功呢？
Original English **Guest**: In 1996... In 1995, we lived in a world of neoliberalism, something called Washington Consensus. And the idea is we have developed a new model of history. If people just traded with each other and consumers just bought goods, we would have peace forever. Okay, this is what we call neoliberalism, Washington consensus. And Bill Clinton was the main proponent of this idea. And in order to achieve this vision for global peace, what he did was promote the Oslo peace process which sought to create a two-state solution and bring peace in the Middle East. Right? The two-state solution is the Palestinians and the Israelis agreed to live side by side. And at that time the main thinking was that once peace happened in the Middle East, once a two-state solution was created, then they would start to trade with each other. Israel and Palestine be brought into the GCC and they would be part of the global supply chain and once prosperity comes to Israel and Palestine they would have no need to ever hate each other again. This is called the Oslo peace process. Okay. And again at that time this was just how policymakers in Washington understood the world, right? It worked in China. It worked in Japan. It worked in Germany. Japan and Germany were these really militant nation states. But then we allowed them to trade. We allowed their consumers to have air conditioning, SUVs, and now they're just really peaceful people. So why can't we do the same thing in Israel and Palestine?
**主持人**：那么，到底什么是“彻底决裂”（Clean Break）理论？能不能用一句话概括一下？
Original English **Host**: So what is the clean break theory? What? What in a sentence?
**嘉宾**：“彻底决裂”理论的核心在于：内塔尼亚胡上台执政后，他的基本主张是我们绝不能指望阿拉伯人会放弃对我们的仇恨。我们是以色列人，这片土地是上帝赐予我们的应许之地；而阿拉伯人始终将我们视作敌人。无论我们做什么，他们都会永远恨我们。因此，去他的和平，去他的妥协，我们必须成为地区霸权，因为这是我们的天命所归。这是上帝对我们的旨意，是圣经中写明的内容，也是我们与生俱来的使命。这就是所谓的《彻底决裂备忘录》。这份备忘录提出了三大支柱策略，而这些目标在今天已经全部成为现实。其中的第一大支柱就是彻底叫停奥斯陆和平进程，绝不再向巴勒斯坦人割让任何土地，因为在他们看来巴勒斯坦人就是野兽，而对待野兽的唯一办法就是狠狠教训、把他们打服，绝对不能以怀柔手段相待，否则他们只会变本加厉地仇恨你。
Original English **Guest**: The clean break theory is this. Netanyahu came into power and basically his argument is we can never ever trust the Arabs not to hate us. We are Israelis. We have been promised this land by God. And the Arabs see us as enemies. And whatever we do, they will always hate us. So screw peace, screw compromise. Let us become the regional hegemon because that is our manifest destiny. That is what God told us to do. That is what is written in the Bible. And that's what we were born to do. Okay? And this is something called the clean break memo. And the clean break memo had three major pillars that have that have all been achieved today. Okay? The first pillar is stop the Oslo peace process. Do not give more land to the Palestinians because the Palestinians are animals and the way to treat animals is by beating the crap out of them. Okay. Do not treat them nicely. They will... um they will hate you.
### 中东地缘转折与“彻底决裂”的三大支柱 **主持人**：等等，你的意思是说，要阻止我们之前讨论的所有悲观前景发生，必须依赖“彻底决裂”理论取得成功吗？
Original English **Host**: So wait, are you saying that the way to stop all of the pessimism that we talked about happening is by the clean break theory succeeding?
**嘉宾**：不，绝非如此。我想表达的是，早在1995年，原本就存在一套名为新自由主义的成熟理论体系，它为困扰中东数十年的巴以冲突提供了一套切实可行的和平解决方案。如果当年有关各方能够坚持贯彻那一套方案，我们今天所处的世界将会完全不同。
Original English **Guest**: No. No, no, no. What I said was in 1995 there was already a theory in place called neoliberalism that offered a solution to the Israel-Palestine issue that has been plaguing the Middle East for the past few decades. And if they had followed that through then we live in a very different time.
**主持人**：明白。那我想要请教的是，究竟需要满足怎样的条件，才能避免你所描述的那些战争与冲突的爆发？
Original English **Host**: Okay. So to my question, my question is what would have to be the case for all the things you've described—the wars and the conflict—not to happen?
**嘉宾**：原本应当发生的情形是：美国对以色列施加足够的外交与战略压力，迫使其与阿拉伯国家寻求持久和平。
Original English **Guest**: Right. What would have happened is the United States had pressured Israel into seeking peace with the Arab nations.
**主持人**：也就是说，美国必须促成以色列与阿拉伯各国建立友好关系。
Original English **Host**: Okay. So the US need to get Israel to be friends with the Arab nations.
**嘉宾**：是的，必须强推这一步，因为以色列在技术、资金和武器装备上完全高度依赖美国。以色列是美国对外政策援助中最大的受援国。
Original English **Guest**: Yes. You force it because Israel is simply dependent on you for technology, for financing, for arms. Israel is the biggest recipient of American foreign policy aid.
**主持人**：为了让大家更清楚什么是“彻底决裂”理论，它的全称是《彻底决裂：确保王国安全的新战略》（A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm）。这是1996年一份著名的政策文件，由美国新保守主义战略家领导的研究小组为本雅明·内塔尼亚胡量身起草。他当时阅读了这份备忘录吗？
Original English **Host**: So, just for those that want to know what the clean break theory is, it's called "A Clean Break: A New Strategy for Securing the Realm." It refers to a prominent 1996 policy document prepared for Benjamin Netanyahu by a study group led by American neoconservative strategists. Did he read this memo?
**嘉宾**：这份备忘录正是由他亲自委托制定的。
Original English **Guest**: He commissioned it.
**主持人**：是他亲自委托制定的，明白了。正如你所说，“彻底决裂”的核心目标包含三个方面：第一是放弃“以土地换和平”，主张彻底脱离《奥斯陆协议》的框架，转向“以实力求和平”和“以和平换和平”的强硬姿态，绝不放弃任何领土；第二是谋求地区霸权，建议跳出巴以冲突的单一局限，将重心放在削弱周边地区对手上，明确提出遏制或推翻伊拉克和叙利亚的敌对政权，并瓦解伊拉克—叙利亚—真主党轴心；第三是先发制人行动，敦促以色列彻底放弃防御性遏制策略，转而采取主动进攻战略。而这正是以色列如今正在践行的一切，也是以色列在过去三十年间一贯推行的策略，包括在叙利亚和伊拉克大力推动政权更迭。
Original English **Host**: He commissioned it. Okay. And the key objectives of the clean break are, as you said, the first one: abandoning land for peace, which advocated for moving away from the Oslo Accords framework, shifting to a posture of peace through strength and peace for peace without giving up any territory. Number two: regional dominance. It recommended transcending the Israel-Palestine conflict by focusing on weakening regional adversaries, specifically advocating for the containment or removal of hostile regimes in Iraq and Syria, and dismantling the Iraq-Syria-Hezbollah axis. And lastly: preemptive action. It urged Israel to abandon defensive containment policies in favor of proactive offensive strategies. And that's exactly what Israel is doing today. This is what Israel has done for the past 30 years. It has promoted regime change in Syria, in Iraq.
### 全球贸易解体与无法逆转的结构性危机 **主持人**：所以这里得出的结论是，如果要阻止这类冲突继续升级，他们就必须彻底扭转这一战略路线？
Original English **Host**: And so the conclusion here is to stop this sort of conflict escalating, they have to reverse course with this strategy.
**嘉宾**：美国确实必须约束并遏制以色列。但我的核心观点是，现在一切都已经太迟了。因为你已经释放出了那些足以摧毁全球贸易体系的深层结构性力量。在那种局面下，每个国家都只能各自为战、自求多福。我的意思是，你已经一手制造了诱发中日之间走向战争的条件，也已经埋下了导致德俄之间爆发冲突的祸根。大势已去，覆水难收，你再也无法把放出瓶子的恶魔重新收回去了。
Original English **Guest**: The US needs to contain Israel. Yes. Okay. But what I'm arguing is it's too late because you've already unleashed these structural forces that will collapse the global trade system. In which case, it's every nation for itself. I mean, you've already created the conditions for Japan and China to go to war. You've already created conditions for Germany and Russia to go to war. It's no longer... you can't put the genie back in the bottle again.
### 普通人的生存之道：信仰与家庭维度 **主持人**：这意味着什么呢？你知道，我们绝大多数普通人并不涉足政治，我们只是在旁观这一切新闻，不得不思考在面对新闻里看到的种种疯狂乱象、全球冲突时，该如何安顿好我们自己的家庭和生活。你对普通人有什么切实建议？
Original English **Host**: What does this mean? You know, most of us aren't involved in politics. So we just kind of watch this stuff and we have to sort of figure out what to do with our families and our lives in spite of this sort of craziness that we see in the news and the global conflict and all that stuff. What is the advice that you have for the average person?
**嘉宾**：我能给普通人最好的建议就是：信仰上帝。我是精英选拔制度下的产物，接受过全世界最顶尖的精英教育，但我深刻体会到，这种顶级教育往往会让人形成纯粹的唯物主义世界观，让人认为上帝根本不存在。其结果就是，在我二十多岁、三十多岁甚至四十多岁的很长一段时间里，我内心深处始终充满了愤怒、沮丧与绝望。因为如果你认定上帝不存在，那么世间发生的一切便毫无秩序与结构可言，万事万物皆沦为纯粹的混乱；而在纯粹的混乱之中，你是看不到任何希望与光明的。然而，正因为我娶了一位在我眼中宛如天使般美好的妻子，拥有了三个可爱的孩子，我开始坚信这个世界背后存在着某种蓝图、结构、秩序与理性。也就是在这最近两年里——真的是在很近的这两年时间里——我才真正建立了对上帝由衷的信仰。
Original English **Guest**: The best advice I can give to the average person is believe in God. So, I am a product of the meritocracy. I received the best education in the world and I feel the best education in the world makes you think the world is materialistic. God doesn't exist. And as a result, in my 20s and 30s and 40s, I was a deeply angry, depressed, frustrated person because if God doesn't exist, there's no order and structure to what's going on and it's just complete chaos and there can be no hope or light in chaos. And because I married a wonderful woman who I think is really an angel, because I have like three beautiful children, I do believe there's a plan and a structure and order and reason to the world. And I've come in the past two years—and it's only been recent, okay? It's only been the past two years—when I have a true belief in God.
**主持人**：所以，一切最终都会好起来的，对吧？只要坚定信仰上帝，把精力放在照顾家庭上，事情就会步入正轨。
Original English **Host**: So, it's all going to be okay. Yes. Great. Yes. But you need to believe in God and you need to focus on your family. Then it will be all right.
### 讲出真相的道德责任与苦难的升华 **嘉宾**：因此，不要整天把心思耗费在街头抗议、选举政治或者诸如此类的事情上。如果你心怀对上帝的信仰并全心关爱家庭，有时你就会由内而外地被驱使着去采取行动。正因为我相信上帝，我遵循着一条极其简单的原则来度过此生，那就是：讲出真相。为什么我会来到你的节目？为什么我在过去这一个月里密集参加了这么多不同的播客访谈？正是因为让大众了解真相至关重要。如果你真的信仰上帝，真正关切你的家庭，你就会产生一种不可推卸的个人与道德责任，必须站出来把真相讲明白。如果你洞悉未来将要发生什么，你就应当直言不讳。有人可能会问：“你做这些图什么？能带来什么好处？”这根本无关紧要。这种对上帝的信仰自然会驱使你去践行真理、讲出真相、传播真相。所以，信仰上帝并不意味着你只要心里信了，就可以心安理得地缩回房间里整天打电子游戏度日。真正的信仰意味着，当你坚信上帝的存在并且确信冥冥之中自有安排时，你必须主动采取行动、积极参与到这个世界中去，否则上帝创造你的意义何在呢？
Original English **Guest**: So don't focus on protesting in the streets or elections or any of those things. If you believe in God and you focus on your family, sometimes you're compelled to take action. Because I believe in God, I live a life following one simple principle, which is speak the truth. Why am I on your show? Why did I spend the past month going on so many different podcasts? Because it's important people know the truth. If you really believe in God, if you really focus on your family, you have a personal and moral responsibility to speak the truth. If you know what's going to happen, then speak it. "Why are you doing this? What good will it do?" It doesn't matter. It's just like your faith in God compels you to live the truth, and to speak the truth, and to spread the truth. So just because you believe in God doesn't mean "okay, now I believe in God and now I can just sit back and hide in my room and play computer games all day." It doesn't mean that. It means if you truly believe in God and you believe there's a plan, then you have to take action and you have to participate in the world, because why else would God create you?
**主持人**：那么，上帝为何要任由这一切糟糕的事情发生呢？环顾当今世界，我们看到到处都是战争与冲突：俄乌战场、中东乱局，还有当下正在各处频频爆发的危机。上帝为何会允许这些苦难降临人间？
Original English **Host**: So why is God letting all of this stuff happen? When I look around the world I see lots of wars and conflict. Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East, lots of other things breaking out at the moment. Why would God let this happen?
**嘉宾**：通往智慧的道路究竟是什么？
Original English **Guest**: What is the path to wisdom?
**主持人**：是挣扎、痛苦与失败。
Original English **Host**: Struggle, pain, failure.
**嘉宾**：没错。
Original English **Guest**: Yeah.
**主持人**：我们难道就不能跳过这些磨难，直接获得智慧吗？
Original English **Host**: Can we just have the wisdom without them?
**嘉宾**：这个嘛，你觉得可能吗？（笑声与喷鼻息声）
Original English **Guest**: Well, or could you? [laughter] [snorts]
**主持人**：所以，我们必须经历这些教训。
Original English **Host**: So, we've got a lesson to learn.
**嘉宾**：我们有许许多多的功课需要去吸取。但如果你真正是一个拥有精神信仰的人，你反而会为置身于这个时代而心怀感激，因为正是这些艰难挣扎与痛苦磨难，才能让我们最终实现超越与升华。
Original English **Guest**: We have many lessons to learn. But if you are truly a spiritual person, you're thankful for this time because this struggle, this suffering will allow us to transcend...
### 真正的觉醒与人性的本质 **教授**：我们自己。我们来到这个世界上，难道只是为了赚大钱、开快车吗？我们来到这里，难道不是为了理解什么才是真正的人？去学习什么是爱？去与上帝建立更深层次的联结？我认为，我们来到这里首要的目的就是成为一个真正的人。而这意味着去过一种充满爱、同理心与想象力的生活。所以，我们又回到了那个公式：如果你拥有过多的财富、过大的名气、过盛的权力，你就根本不可能真正拥有想象力、同理心和爱。 那么，该如何纠正这种失衡呢？难道要创造一个充满危机的世界吗？因为身处危机的世界中，每个人——包括你和我——都将被迫审视内心深处，问问自己：对我而言究竟什么是真正重要的？什么能带给我幸福？我生命的意义和目的是什么？我认为答案就在于：是我对自己身边人的爱。这是我们所有人最终都会得出的答案。一旦我们找到了这个答案，我认为这就是一场伟大的精神觉醒，它或许能够救赎全人类。
Original English **Professor**: ourselves. Where are we here to make a lot of money and drive fast cars? Are we here to learn what it means to be truly human? To learn what love is? To develop a deeper connection with God? I mean, I think we're here first and foremost to be truly human. And that means living a life of love, empathy, and imagination. And so, we go back to that formula where if you have too much wealth, you have too much fame, you have too much power, it's impossible for you to truly have imagination, empathy, and love. So, how do you correct this? Will you create a world of crisis? Because in a world of crisis, everyone, you and me, we're forced to look deep down and ask ourselves, what is truly important to me? What gives me happiness? What is meaning and purpose in my life? And I think the answer is it's my love for the people around me. And that's the answer that we will all come to. And once we come to this answer, then I think that is the great spiritual awakening that could possibly redeem all of humanity.
### 供应链断裂、地缘冲突与人工智能的异化 **主持人**：教授，在眼下您脑海中最紧迫、但我们今天还没有聊到的话题是什么？
Original English **Host**: Professor, what's the most pertinent thing that's front of mind for you at the moment that we haven't talked about?
**教授**：嗯，我们之前确实聊到了中日之间即将到来的冲突，我对此非常担忧。
Original English **Professor**: Well, I mean, we did talk about the coming conflict between China and Japan, and I worry a lot about that.
**主持人**：那人工智能呢？我们还没有谈到它，而它其实贯穿并叠加在我们刚才讨论的所有话题之上——因为它关乎机器人、能源、半导体芯片，也关乎美中关系。
Original English **Host**: What about AI? We didn't talk about that and that's kind of overlaid on all of the stories we've talked about because it's to do with robotics, it's energy, it's semiconductors, chips, it's US, China.
**教授**：是的，这是个极好的问题。如果我们回头看全球供应链，就必须理解这样一个关键公式：技术等于专业化分工乘以全球化（Technology = Specialization × Globalization）。因此，在一个全球供应链正在断裂、处于战争阴影下的时代，人工智能根本无法实现向通用人工智能（AGI）的跨越。接下来会发生的是，AI 不会被用来开发消除稀缺性、解决人类最紧迫的医疗难题或应对气候变化所需的智慧，反而会被重新改造并用作一种全方位的社会监控与控制网络（control grid），用来监视和管控我们所有人。
Original English **Professor**: Yeah. So that's a great question. And so if we go back and talk about global supply chains, this formula is very important to understand. Technology equals specialization times globalization. So in a time when global supply chains are breaking down in time of war AI cannot make that leap into AGI. So what will happen is AI will be repurposed as a control grid rather than AI developing the intelligence necessary to reduce scarcity to solve the most pressing medical problems of humanity, to solve climate change. AI will be repurposed to monitor and surveil all of us.
**主持人**：我认为无论如何这都会发生。政府对随时监控我们所有人会越来越有兴趣，也越来越有能力做到这一点，毕竟我们到处都有摄像头。比如我们现在所在的纽约市，街头到处都是摄像头。它们目前只是有点笨拙，彼此之间还没有真正实现互联互通。
Original English **Host**: I think that's going to happen irrespective of, you know, I think governments are going to be increasingly interested in and capable of monitoring all of us all the time cuz we have cameras. We're here in New York City at the moment. There's cameras everywhere. They're just a little bit dumb. They don't really talk to each other.
**教授**：没错。
Original English **Professor**: Yep.
**主持人**：而有了 AI，这些摄像头就能全部打通互联。比如教授正沿着街道走，正前往这家酒店，现在他已经走进了酒店……
Original English **Host**: And with AI, they can all talk to each other. Professor's walking down the street and he's off his way to this hotel and now he's in a hotel and—
**教授**：我同意这是极大概率的发展趋势。但我的意思是，所有的这些危机都会进一步加速这个进程。举个例子，假设纽约市遭遇围困，那么像 Palantir 这样的公司就会利用这个机会，去开发由 AI 控制的自主无人机作战系统。
Original English **Professor**: I agree that is the most likely trend. But what I'm saying is all these crises will accelerate this trend because let's just say you have a siege of New York City. Well, Palantir will use this opportunity develop autonomous drone warfare that is controlled by AI.
### AI 贬低人类体验与真正的灵性使命 **主持人**：所以这是您对 AI 最大的担忧吗？就是监控吗？
Original English **Host**: So is that your big concern with AI? Is it surveillance?
**教授**：这还不是我看到的最大风险。我看到的最大风险在于 AI 如何贬低和廉价化人类的体验（cheapen the human experience）。AI 几乎是在剥夺我们的人性。因为像埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）、彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）以及萨姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）这些人都在说，计算机比我们聪明得多。AI 最终在数学计算、医疗诊断等方面的效率超越人类，这可能是真的。但归根结底，我们作为人类来到这个世界，是为了去爱、去想象、去对他人保持友善与仁慈。这才是人类体验的本质。如果我们过度聚焦于 AI，就会被带偏并分心，脱离我们真正的使命——那就是精神与灵性的成长（spiritual growth）。
Original English **Professor**: That's not the big risk I see. The big risk I see is how AI can cheapen the human experience. How AI is almost dehumanizing because what people like Elon Musk and Peter Thiel and Sam Altman are saying is computers are so much smarter than us. And it could be true that AI will eventually be able to do mathematics, do medical diagnostics much more efficiently than we are. But ultimately, we as humans, we're here to love, imagine, and have and be kind to other people. And that is what the human experience is. And if we focus too much on AI, that diverts and distracts us from our true mission, which is one of spiritual growth.
### 孩子、名利的诱惑与无条件的爱 **主持人**：我们真正的使命是灵性成长。那又是什么给予了您希望呢？
Original English **Host**: Our true mission is spiritual growth. What gives you hope?
**教授**：唯一能带给我希望的，就是我的孩子们。你刚才也见到了克里斯（Chris），我是因为克里斯才来到这里的。说实话，如果我没有孩子，首先，我不认为自己会取得今天这样的成功，因为我的生活不会有太多的目的和意义。但坦白讲，与此同时，如果我没有孩子却突然变得这么出名，我很快就会彻底堕落腐化。我会一门心思追逐名利，拼命去赚尽可能多的钱。因为如果没有孩子，人生唯一的目的就变成了与他人竞争，去证明自己在物质上比别人更成功。所以我就会在自己这短暂成名的 15 分钟里，拼命为自己捞取最多的金钱。但正因为有了孩子，我现在更关心的是为他们创造传承与榜样，树立一个良好的人生示范。
Original English **Professor**: Well, the only thing that gives me hope are my children, right? You met Chris, but I'm here because of Chris. Honestly, if I didn't have children, first of all, I don't think I would be this successful because I wouldn't have much purpose and meaning in my life. But honestly, at the same time, I think that without children and I were suddenly this famous, I would become very corrupted very fast. I would just focus on the fame. I would try to make as much money as possible because without children the only purpose in life is competition against others, right? To prove that I am materially more successful than other people. And so I would just try to make as much money as possible for myself in my 15 minutes of fame. But now that I have children, I'm much more concerned about building a legacy for them and setting a good example.
**主持人**：您对克里斯的未来感到担忧吗？
Original English **Host**: Are you worried about Chris's future?
**教授**：我不担心。说实话，我对他未来的发展一点也不担心。
Original English **Professor**: I'm not. You know, I'm not at all worried about his future.
**主持人**：为什么呢？
Original English **Host**: Why?
**教授**：因为我和我妻子已经倾尽所能给予了他最充沛的爱。正因为我们全心全意地爱他，才赋予了他活出极致自我的信心与底气。在我们的眼里，克里斯的每一天都是上帝赐予的礼物。
Original English **Professor**: Because my wife and I have loved him to the best of our ability. And the fact that we love him gives him the confidence to live his life to the fullest. We see every day Chris as a gift from God.
**主持人**：但用您自己的话来说，如果这个世界正在崩塌，而克里斯正身处这样的世界之中，难道您真的不担心吗？
Original English **Host**: But if the world is collapsing in your words, and Chris is in that world, are you not concerned?
**教授**：我一点也不担心。因为我们来到这个世界就是为了经历一场精神觉醒，而所有的危机都会促使我们进行深刻的反思，从而去实现我们的使命。我其实不知道克里斯为何会来到这里。当克里斯只有两岁大的时候，他曾亲口对我们说：“爸爸妈妈，我来自另一个世界。”他还说出了那个世界的名字，说“我只是一个来探访你们的外星人”。我和我妻子当时一点也不感到惊讶，我们对他说：“我们早就知道了。我们知道你是个外星人，知道你来自另一个世界，也知道你来到这里是为了体验人类的一切缺点和所有的问题。我们看到了你，我们深爱着你，我们会竭尽所能去支持你完成你的使命。”我们会尽全力去做，因为归根结底，这是你的人生，这是你的使命，我们永远无法也不该去控制你。爱意味着信任，爱意味着释放与解放——从你自身的焦虑中解脱出来，从控制他人的欲望中彻底解放出来。
Original English **Professor**: I'm not at all concerned. Because we are here in order to have a spiritual awakening and all the crises they will induce deep reflection in order for us to fulfill our purpose. I don't know why Chris is here. When Chris was 2 years old, he literally told us, "Mom, dad, I'm from another world." And he named that world and I'm just an alien visiting you guys. And my wife and I, we weren't surprised. We're like, "We knew this." Yeah. We knew you were an alien. We knew you came from another world. And we knew that you came here to experience humanity for all our faults and for all our problems. And we see you. We love you, but we will do whatever we can to empower you on your mission. And we're going to try our best because ultimately it's your life. It's your mission. And we cannot ever control you. Love is about trust. Love is about liberation. Liberation from your own anxieties and liberation from the need to control others.
### 克服内心的恐惧与最后的寄语 **主持人**：教授，我们节目有一个收尾传统：前一位嘉宾会为下一位嘉宾留下一个问题，而他们并不知道这个问题会留给谁。留给您的问题是：您目前面临的最大挑战是什么？您又是如何努力去解决它的？
Original English **Host**: Professor, we have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves a question for the next not knowing who they're leaving it for. The question left for you is, what is your biggest challenge and how are you working on fixing it?
**教授**：我最大的挑战是我内心的恐惧、怀疑和随之而来的瘫痪与停滞。我昨天去了美国边境，现在我开始害怕离开美国之后会不会再也不被允许入境。我担心自己可能会被很多国家禁止入境，因为我总是在公开批评、炮轰不同的国家。我严厉批评过中国，批评过加拿大，也批评过美国。如果我被这三个国家全部拉黑禁止入境，那我可就惹上大麻烦了。因此，我持续不断的挑战就是要保持我对上帝的坚定信仰，保持我对家庭的坚定信念，并坚守对自己人生使命的信念。
Original English **Professor**: My biggest challenge is my fear, my doubt, my paralysis. I went to the US border yesterday and now I'm afraid that I will never be allowed back in the United States after I leave. I'm afraid that I might get banned from a lot of countries because all I do is talk trash about different countries. I've talked trash about China. I've talked trash about Canada. I've talked trash about the United States. If I got banned from all three countries, I'd be in a lot of trouble. And so, my constant challenge is to maintain my faith in God, maintain my faith in my family, maintain my faith in my purpose.
**主持人**：衷心希望您能做到。您有一个非常棒的儿子，我从他身上感受到的最大特质就是他极其好奇。
Original English **Host**: I hope you do. And you have a wonderful son. He's so curious is the vibe that I got from him.
**教授**：他是上帝赐予的礼物。
Original English **Professor**: He's a gift from God.
**主持人**：真的非常非常好奇。我刚才在休息室见到了他，他当时正在玩橡皮泥和各种玩具。在我跟他相处的短短 15 秒里，我就完全不意外他为什么是您的儿子了（笑），因为他非常非常有探索欲与好奇心，显然未来会成为一个非常聪慧出色的年轻人。祝贺您！
Original English **Host**: Very very curious. I just met him in the green room then and he was playing with some Play-Doh and lots of toys and stuff like that and I'm not surprised that he is your son from the 15 seconds I spent with him [laughter] cuz he's very very curious and clearly going to be a very smart young man. So congratulations.
**教授**：谢谢你。
Original English **Professor**: Thank you.
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