--- author: Bloomberg Podcasts date: '2026-09-17' guest: '' layout: post.njk source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dJa-Hetalxk speaker: Bloomberg Podcasts tags: - supply-chain - inflation - investment-assets - resource-cycle title: 铜价新高与资源周期博弈：从超级周期到供应链重构的深度分析 summary: 文章探讨了铜价创下新高所反映的长期需求驱动力，以及价格滞后于实际生产的矛盾。核心议题包括资源超级周期的形成机制、技术进步对采矿产能的限制、关键化学品供应（如硫酸）的短缺，以及全球供应链从‘零库存即时制’向‘防患未然备用制’的重构趋势。 insight: '' draft: true series: '' category: investment-assets area: finance-wealth project: [] people: [] companies_orgs: [] products_models: [] media_books: [] status: evergreen --- ### 播客现场活动与铜价新高 **Joe Weisenthal**：Odd Lots 的听众朋友们，大家好！我是 Joe Weisenthal。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: Hello Odd Lots listeners. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
**Tracy Alloway**：我是 Tracy Alloway。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: And I'm Tracy Alloway.
**Joe Weisenthal**：我们是 Odd Lots 播客的主持人，今天有个令人兴奋的消息要告诉大家。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: We're the hosts of the Odd Lots podcast and we've got something exciting for you.
**Tracy Alloway**：没错。主持我们播客最棒的部分之一，就是能够真正地与我们的听众见面并互动，而且我们知道洛杉矶有我们不少的听众。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: That's right. So, one of the best parts of hosting our podcast is we get to actually meet and interact with our listeners and we know we have some listeners over in Los Angeles.
**Joe Weisenthal**：是的。所以如果你在洛杉矶，我们将于 9 月 17 日在好莱坞的佛蒙特剧院（Vermont Theater）进行现场节目录制。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: That's right. So, if you're in LA, we are going to be recording a live show, some live recordings at the Vermont Theater in Hollywood on September 17th.
**Tracy Alloway**：我们邀请到了非常重磅的嘉宾阵容，也策划了十分精彩的对话。所以抓紧去买票吧，大家可以访问 bloomberg.com/oddslots 获取门票，或者点击下方节目简介中的链接。到场时记得过来和我们打个招呼！
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: We have some really exciting guests lined up, have some really great conversations planned. So, go ahead and get your tickets. You can find those over at bloomberg.com/oddslots or click the link below in the show notes and come and say hi when you're there.
**Joe Weisenthal**：彭博音频工作室（Bloomberg Audio Studios）——播客、广播与新闻。大家好，欢迎收听新一期的 Odd Lots 播客，我是 Joe Weisenthal。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio news. Hello and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Weisenthal.
**Tracy Alloway**：我是 Tracy Alloway。最近出于显而易见的原因，原油频繁登上各大头条，但还有另一种大宗商品基本上处于历史高位附近，而且多年来似乎一直在直线上涨，那就是铜。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: And I'm Tracy Alloway. Oil has been in the headlines a lot lately for obvious reasons, but another commodity that's near basically at record highs that just keeps to be going straight up for years now is copper.
**Joe Weisenthal**：是的。就在本周早些时候，铜价创下了新高，大约达到了每吨 14,875 美元左右。在我们录制这期节目时，价格有所回调，大约下跌了 3%。但我认为这正好说明了铜市场面临的一大矛盾——每个人都在说，或者很多人都在说，铜拥有强劲的长期需求驱动力，因为数据中心需要铜，电网电气化改造需要铜，所有这些领域都需要铜。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: Yeah. So copper I think reached a new high of it was something like 14,875 a ton earlier this week. It is down about 3% as we're recording this episode. But I think it kind of speaks to I guess one of the tensions when it comes to copper, which is everyone has been saying or a lot of people have been saying that there is this long-term strong demand impulse for copper because data centers use copper. We need it to electrify the grid. All of that stuff.
### 矿业超级周期与投资迟滞的博弈 **Tracy Alloway**：然而价格往往表现滞后。不仅如此，价格波动性意味着实际生产铜的厂商有时会不愿扩大产能。事实上，我最近在看彭博新能源财经（BNEF）同事们写的一份报告，他们指出今年我们可能会经历自 2017 年以来的首次铜产量下滑。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: And yet the price has often lagged behind. And moreover, you get this volatility that means people who actually produce copper are sometimes reluctant to increase production. And in fact, I was looking at a note from our colleagues over at BNEF recently and they were saying that this year we might have the first decline in copper production since 2017.
**Joe Weisenthal**：这在一定程度上解释了所谓的“超级周期”是如何形成的。我们在很多不同的领域都探讨过这个话题，无论是纯粹的资源开采行业，还是制造业产品——比如我们之前聊过的存储芯片：你在经历波动期时，根本不想在这些动荡时期进行更多投资；接着就会出现产能短缺；随后价格飙升，大家又觉得“赶紧建新产能吧”；然而大家的记忆都很深刻……
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: I mean, this is part of why so-called like super cycles can happen. And we've talked about this in so many different realms both with the pure sort of like resource extraction industry but even though other sort of like manufactured goods like if we were talking about memory which is you can have these like periods of volatility you don't really want to invest more during periods of volatility then you sort of have like a scarcity of capacity then it ramps up the price and then it's like oh build more but then it's like everyone remembers...
**Tracy Alloway**：对，记忆是长久的，我们在页岩油行业也看到过同样的情形。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: Memories are long right and we saw that in shale as well.
**Joe Weisenthal**：大家的记忆都很深刻。这大概就是人类的心理吧：所有人最终都在同一时刻妥协认同，心想：“你知道吗？我们要大规模扩张采矿业务。”而采矿绝非一朝一夕能够建成的。接着突然间市场供应过剩，你的股东们开始对你大发雷霆：“你们为什么不顺应周期波动，见好就收呢？”于是这些因素会持续存在，并长期相互影响。但正如你所说，如今大家对资源民族主义、基础设施、电力等领域的关注度极高，而铜确实处于这一切的核心位置。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: Memories are long and then you know it's like I guess it's human psychology. Everyone finally taps at the same time and they're like, "You know what? We're going to massively expand mining operations," which don't happen overnight by any stretch. And then suddenly you get gluts and your shareholders get mad at you, etc. Why don't you just ride this wave, etc. And so these things can then just persist and feed on each other for a long time. But to your point, there's so much interest these days in resource nationalism, infrastructure, electricity, and so forth, and copper really is at the center of it.
**Tracy Alloway**：顺便提一句题外话，你看到彼得·希夫（Peter Schiff）发的那条推文了吗？
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: Did you see, this is a slight tangent, but did you see the tweet from Peter Schiff?
**Joe Weisenthal**：没有，他说了什么？
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: No. What do you say?
**Tracy Alloway**：他说当铜价达到每磅 6.85 美元时，1982 年以前铸造的一美分硬币的熔炼价值就达到了 4.5 美分。他称熔化一美分硬币不仅毫无风险，而且上涨空间巨大。这挺搞笑的，因为我非常确定熔毁美国货币在美国实际上是违法的，所以这里面显然存在法律风险。另外我还想，要想找到一大堆 1982 年前的硬币，到底得付出多少精力和跑腿功夫啊；考虑到所耗费的力气，平摊下来每枚硬币到底能不能赚到超过 3 美分都很难说。不过话说回来，铜确实是……
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: With copper at 685 per pound, the melt value of a pre-1982 penny is 4.5 cents. And he calls melting pennies not only risk-free but the upside potential is huge which is kind of funny because I'm pretty sure that melting down US currency is in fact illegal in the US and so there might be a little bit of a risk there. I also think about how much leg work and effort you would have to do to even find a bunch of pre-1982 pennies and whether that would come to more than three pennies each when you think about the effort. Anyway, but yes, copper...
**Joe Weisenthal**：话虽如此，尽管那条推特出于很多原因显得很好笑，但铜的很大一部分供应确实来自于回收利用，这也与新矿开采的产出之间形成了博弈与张力。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: I mean that said that tweet is funny for many reasons but there is a lot of supply of copper supply that comes from recycling and that is in tension with the new production as well. That's true.
### 特邀嘉宾 Robert Friedland 与铜的战略地位 **Tracy Alloway**：确实如此，这也是一个极其重要的因素。无论如何，我们必须做一期关于铜的深度节目。这一次，我们将与一位真正身处行业风口浪尖的核心人物对话——一位必须在投资决策、可持续性、最优配置以及新建产能成本等维度做出深思熟虑计算的企业家。我们今天请到了最完美的嘉宾：我们将对话罗伯特·弗里德兰（Robert Friedland）。他是艾芬豪矿业（Ivanhoe Mines）、艾芬豪电气（Ivanhoe Electric）以及一家名为 I-Pulse 的新型创业公司的创始人，稍后我们也会深入了解这家企业。他在矿业深耕超过 40 年，是一位真正亲自深入一线、从地下开采铜矿的资深矿业巨擘。所以，罗伯特，非常感谢你来到 Odd Lots，很高兴你能做客我们的节目。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: And that is an important element. Anyway, we got to do a copper episode and this time we're going to be speaking with someone like right in it. Someone who has to like make these decisions about investment and how sustainable it is, what's optimal, and how the cost to build out new capacity, how these calculations actually work. We literally have the perfect guest today. We are going to be speaking with Robert Friedland. He is the founder of Ivanhoe Mines, Ivanhoe Electric, a new startup called Ipulse, which we're going to learn about. He has been in the industry for over 40 years, literally getting his hands dirty in pulling copper out of the ground. So, Robert, thank you so much for coming on Odd Lots. Thrilled to have you here.
**Robert Friedland**：非常荣幸能来到纽约演播室。我刚才正好有机会见到了迈克·布隆伯格（Mike Bloomberg），真是太棒了。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: What a pleasure to be in the New York studios. And I just had the opportunity to meet Mike Bloomberg, which is amazing.
**Joe Weisenthal**：确实很棒。我经常说在彭博工作就像身处以前 ESPN 的商业广告里一样：你在办公室里四处走动，就能遇到各种各样的大人物，包括我们的大老板。对于那些还不甚了解的听众，您能否简要介绍一下艾芬豪以及您涉足的业务版图？这些业务加在一起构成了怎样的全貌？
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: It is great. You know, I've always said I work at Bloomberg, it's like the old ESPN commercials where you walk around, you get to meet all these luminaries just milling about the office, including our boss. Why don't you give us for those who don't know, why don't you give us a little bit of overview of Ivanhoe and just like the portfolio of things you work on? What does it all add up to and look like?
**Robert Friedland**：在人的一生中，随着阅历增长，你往往会在越来越聚焦的细分领域里懂得越来越深。我们在全球矿业行业摸爬滚打了 40 多年。近年来，标准普尔（S&P）将铜宣布为“新石油”。过去我们为了原油发动战争；我怀疑当年如果伊拉克没有石油，我们绝不会大动干戈发起“震慑行动”去讨伐萨达姆·侯赛因。而在今天，对绝大多数人来说还属于神秘概念的供应链，正被分割瓦解成相互竞争的地缘政治集团。正在蔓延的冲突影响着海运要道及其他关键原材料，而铜则位于我们一切生产生活活动的核心。这个让我们能向全世界发声的超高科技演播室，完全依赖于铜；更重要的是，它完全依赖于采矿业。因为你所触碰的一切，要么是开采出来的，要么是农业种植出来的；而农民也完全依赖采矿产品，比如化肥或拖拉机。所以，现在正是探讨铜战略地位的时刻——它是一整套关键金属的典范与基石，没有这些关键金属，我们将面临极其严峻的危机。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Well, in life, you know, you tend to learn more and more about less and less. We've been in the mining business for over 40 years globally and in recent years Standard & Poor's has declared copper as the new oil. We used to fight wars over crude oil. I doubt we would have gone after Saddam Hussein with shock and awe if there was absolutely no oil in Iraq. But today the supply chain, which is a mystical concept to most people, is being balkanized in competing geopolitical groups. There's a war going on that's spreading affecting the strait routes and other critical materials and copper is central to everything we do. This super high technology studio which is enabling us to talk to the whole world is completely dependent on copper and more importantly on mining because everything you touch we either mined it or we grew it agriculturally and the farmers are totally dependent on mined product anyway like fertilizer or their tractors. So it is time to talk about copper's role as a paradigm for a suite of critical metals without which we're really going to have severe problems.
### 早期渊源：与乔布斯的合伙创业与历史矿山 **Joe Weisenthal**：能聊聊您的早年经历吗？您当初是如何进入矿业的？为什么会对这个领域产生兴趣？
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: Can you give us your sort of origin story? How did you get into mining? Why were you interested in the space?
**Robert Friedland**：这是一个奇特而离奇的故事。史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）和我曾有一段可以追溯到很久很久以前的合伙关系。我们的合伙协议后来被盗，并在二级市场上被卖给了一位电影制片人。当年我和史蒂夫是各占 50% 的合伙人，我是普通合伙人（GP），他是有限合伙人（LP），我们用他在美国银行（Bank of America）抵押苹果公司股票获得的贷款来资助这笔投资。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: This is a strange and bizarre story, but Steve Jobs and I had a partnership that goes way, way, way back. Our partnership agreement was stolen and has been sold on the secondary market to a movie producer. But Steve and I were 50/50 partners where I was the general partner and he was the limited partner and we financed it by a loan from the Bank of America on his Apple shares.
**Joe Weisenthal**：哇。我们说的是哪一年？
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: Wow. What year are we talking about here?
**Robert Friedland**：那应该是在 20 世纪 80 年代。当时我们出去收购林地，因为我们以为自己可以当富有的嬉皮士，而树木每年大约自然生长 6%。只要别去砍伐它们——主要是花旗松（Douglas fir）。他以为我们只要住在圆锥形帐篷里，随着年代流逝就能自然致富。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Oh, it would have been in the 1980s. Okay. And we went out and started buying timberland because we thought we were going to be rich hippies and trees grow about 6% a year. Just leave them alone. Douglas fir trees. He thought we just live in a teepee and get rich as the decade.
**Tracy Alloway**：不得不说，当一个富有的嬉皮士确实是很多人的梦想。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: That's the dream being a rich hippie, I got to say.
**Robert Friedland**：是的。随后发生的事情是：我们在俄勒冈州购买的部分林地上，有一座在 1942 年就关闭了的老金矿。我不知道你们是否了解，在第 L-208 号行政命令下，富兰克林·D·罗斯福关闭了全美所有的金矿，以迫使矿工们去开采铅，主要是铜和锌，以支援战争。事实上在二战期间，有三年时间我们的一美分硬币是用锌而不是铜制造的，因为铜对二战而言极其关键。在一战期间，铜价更是一飞冲天。威廉·兰道夫·赫斯特（William Randolph Hearst）当时拥有蒙大拿州巴特（Butte）的铜矿，正是凭借于此，他买下了全美的媒体……
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Yeah. And what happened was some of this timberland we bought in Oregon, there was an old gold mine that had been closed down in 1942. I don't know if you're aware, under executive order L208, Franklin D. Roosevelt shut all the gold mines to force the miners to mine lead and mainly copper and zinc for the war effort. And in fact during the war for three years we made our pennies out of zinc rather than copper because copper was so critical to World War II. In World War I the price of copper went to the moon. William Randolph Hearst owned the Butte Montana copper mine and with that he bought up all the media in...
### 铜的历史与供需现状：从赫斯特城堡到当代供应链危机 **嘉宾**：……在美国建立了赫斯特城堡（Hearst Castle）。所以他可以说是那个时代的杰夫·贝佐斯（Jeff Bezos）。在第二次世界大战期间，铜资源极度匮乏，以至于我们不得不开采锌来制造分币。而今天，正如你刚才所说的，一枚纯铜分币的内在金属价值大约相当于四到五美分。这非常直观地预示了我们正在走向的未来趋势。总之，当年那里有一座矿山。
Original English **Guest**: the United States and built the Hearst Castle. So he was sort of the Jeff Bezos of his day. And World War II copper was so scarce we had to mine zinc to make our pennies. And today as you just said uh a copper penny is worth about four or 5 cents. And that's a good sort of indication of where we're headed. So there was a mine.
**主持人**：后来发生了什么？好。
Original English **Host**: What happened from there? Okay.
**嘉宾**：对，继续说，继续说。
Original English **Guest**: Yeah. Keep going. Keep going.
**主持人**：好的。
Original English **Host**: Yeah.
**嘉宾**：嗯，你知道，那段经历是……
Original English **Guest**: Well, you know, it was
**主持人**：如果你想花上一个小时讲史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）的采矿故事，我也非常乐意听……
Original English **Host**: If you want to just spend an hour telling Steve Jobs mining stories, I'm very happy to just
**嘉宾**：我只想听听关于采矿的故事。
Original English **Guest**: I just want to hear [clears throat] mining stories.
**主持人**：是的，没错，确实如此。
Original English **Host**: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
**嘉宾**：是的。关于史蒂夫·乔布斯的故事，我们可以聊上好几天。不过，你知道，事情总是一环扣一环的发展。早年间我在印度待了数年，学习瑜伽和冥想，做梦也未曾想到，到了我现在的年纪，我会掌握关于一门近乎被所有人忽视的领域的全部学问——那就是如何在全球各个国家寻找矿产，以及如何去开发建设这些矿山。在这方面，我们所做的工作大概比世界上任何人都多；我们发现的关键铜矿及其他类型矿产的数量，超过了全球任何其他团队。因此，我们对采矿业产生了一种爱恨交织的情感。我们品尝过失败的苦涩，也品尝过成功的喜悦，而成功滋味显然要美妙得多。 如今，随着局势对我们步步紧逼，我花在与美国政府沟通上的时间越来越多，既包括拜登政府，也包括特朗普政府。如果你还记得电影《夺宝奇兵2：魔宫传奇》（Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom）里的场景，四周的墙壁正在不断向内挤压收紧，一个巨大的石球正沿着斜坡滚落下来企图将你碾碎，而你必须赶在一扇正在下落的活板门彻底关闭前飞身滑过去——我们目前所面临的，正是供应链中某些关键原材料被彻底武器化的现实。这确实关乎极其重大的国家安全利益。 与此同时，全人类依然在深切担忧人为造成的气候变暖。我知道，在特朗普执政期间，去担忧外界气温有多高可能显得没那么时髦，但事实上，去年是有气温记录以来的132年里最热的一年。而我们要想应对气候变暖所必需的金属材料，恰恰也是无人机战争以及防御无人机袭击所不可或缺的同一批金属。因此，在一个四分五裂、巴尔干化的世界经济格局中，我们正在目睹一场“完美风暴”的酝酿，市场对某些关键金属的需求正在奔向无穷大。
Original English **Guest**: Yeah. Well, we could spend days on Steve Jobs stories. But um uh you know one thing leads to another and u uh I spent years in India studying yoga and meditation and never dreamed in my m wildest dreams that by my age I would learn everything there is to know about almost nothing which is how to find minds and how to develop them in in countries around the world and we've done that probably more than anybody and we've found more um critical copper mines and other types of mines than any other group in the world. So, we've developed sort of a lovehate relationship with mining. Uh we've we've tasted failure and we've tasted success and success tastes a lot better. And now I've been spending more time with our government, both the Biden administration and the Trump administration, as the walls start uh squeezing in on us. If you think about Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and the walls are coming in to squeeze you and there's this giant ball coming down a ramp to crush you and you have to dive underneath a trapoor that's coming down. Uh we are really looking at the weaponization of certain critical raw materials in the supply chain. uh and it's um it's really a profound national security interest and it comes at the same time that a lot of humanity is still worried about anthropomorphic global warming. I know it's not as fashionable during the Trump administration to worry about how hot it is out there, but actually last year was the hottest year in 132 years since temperatures were recorded. And the metals we need to do something about that are the same metals that are needed for drone warfare or the defense from drone warfare. And so we're seeing a sort of perfect storm uh in a bulcanized world economy uh where demand for certain critical metals is going to infinity.
### 从嬉皮士岁月到地缘政治与关键矿产现实 **主持人**：你知道吗，我以前也曾是个嬉皮士。我曾经……
Original English **Host**: You know, I used to be a hippie, too. I was um
**嘉宾**：曾经是？
Original English **Guest**: used to be
**主持人**：嗯，你知道的，我的父母都是吃素并且坚持冥想的人，我就是在这样的家庭环境中长大的。后来上大学的时候，我也住在一个纯素食合作社宿舍里，诸如此类。但现在，我在纽约市的一栋大型写字楼里工作，偶尔甚至得穿上西装、打上领带。我时常会想：当年二十岁、二十二岁的自己，如果看到现在的我，会作何感想？你也会有这种想法吗？你是否曾回望当下的自己，再对比二十岁、二十五岁时的那个年轻人，思考这之间是否存在连续性？当年的那个人，会对今天的你感到满意吗？因为我经常会思考这些问题。
Original English **Host**: well you know like I was raised by uh vegetarian parents who used to meditate and then when I was in college I lived in a vegan co-op and stuff like that but now I work in a big office building in New York City and occasionally I even have to put on a suit and tie and I like think about like what did my 20 what would my 20 22-year-old self have thought whatever. Do you have those thoughts? Do you ever like think about where you are today and then the 20 year old the 25-year-old version of you and like think is this continuity? Would that person have been happy with me the way it was? Because I think about these things.
**嘉宾**：好吧，首先我并不认同“嬉皮士”这个词。我们不妨称之为“朴素的生活，高尚的思考”（plain living and high thinking）。
Original English **Guest**: Yeah. Well, um I'll deny the use of the word hippie. We'll [clears throat] say it was plain living and high thinking.
**主持人**：明白了。
Original English **Host**: Okay.
**嘉宾**：在20世纪60年代末，我还没满20岁的时候，我们就经历过迷幻浪潮的时代。那时的口号大致就是“调准频率、融入其中、脱离体制”（tune on, tune in, drop out），然后又狼狈地爬回现实世界。接着我们开始接触瑜伽和冥想，远赴印度，在那里待了很多年潜心修行。随后，又一头扎进了试图构想出一番商业蓝图、想要有所作为的“现实扭曲场”之中。如今，我已经年过七十六岁了。 当前，我非常担忧我们国家的国家安全。我十分担忧美中之间的博弈。我认为很多人在兜售一种观念，宣称中国人民是美国人的宿敌——这根本不是事实，绝对不是事实。但问题在于，我们的制度体制之间存在冲突，而且当今世界正在割裂、巴尔干化为对立的阵营。与此同时，我们正在告别原油作为绝对核心战略物资的时代。在美国，我们拥有充裕的原油储量，尽管我们的炼油产能不足，柴油的裂解价差（crack spreads）正处于历史最高位。
Original English **Guest**: Um uh we went through the psychedelic era uh before I was 20 years of age in the late 1960s and it was sort of tune on tune in drop out and then crawl back and then we got into yoga and meditation went to India and did all that stuff for years and then fell into um sort of the reality distortion field of trying to dream up a business and make a difference and now uh I've passed the age of 76 six. Um, I'm sort of worried about our country's national security. I'm worried about the United States versus China. Uh, I think a lot of people are selling the idea that the Chinese people are the mortal enemy of the Americans. That's not true. It's not true. But our systems are in conflict. [snorts] And the world is bulcanized into opposing groups. And we're going away from crude oil being critical. We have plenty of crude oil in the United States. Although we don't have much uh refining capacity, the crack spreads on diesel are at an all-time high.
**主持人**：是的。
Original English **Host**: Yeah.
**嘉宾**：然而，居高不下的柴油价格以及围绕霍尔木兹海峡（Strait of Hormuz）的危机，势必会带来一些极其疯狂的连锁后果。而在采矿业、尤其是铜矿领域，我们恰恰正处于这场风暴的核心地带。这一点，我非常乐意向你们的听众和朋友们深入剖析。
Original English **Guest**: But these high diesel prices and the crisis around the straight of our moods are going to lead to some really crazy uh implicit consequences and we sit in the middle of that storm in the mining industry and particularly in copper. And that's something I'm very happy to talk to your people about.
### 全球铜矿供需断层与去工业化的困境 **主持人**：我其实很想多问问关于你当年经历迷幻时代的往事，不过我先忍住了，我们还是紧扣铜矿这个核心主题。目前各方似乎已经达成共识：全球对铜的需求正在持续攀升。这里面既有全社会电气化的迫切需求，也有数据中心迅猛扩张的故事，方方面面的因素都在推动需求上涨。此外，还有你刚才所阐述的国家安全利益维度的考量。然而，供给端的产能却严重滞后，我们并没有看到大量新矿山获批开工。我非常好奇的是，在当前铜价达到每吨15,000美元、或者说逼近15,000美元的高位背景下，矿业行业到底需要看到什么信号，才能真正建立起扩大产能的信心？
Original English **Host**: So I'm I'm tempted to ask more about your psychedelics era, but I won't. I stick to the topic copper. So we seem to have some consensus that demand for copper is going up. There's this need to electrify. There's the data center story. There's all of that. There's also the national security interest angle which you just described. And yet production has lagged. We don't see a lot of new mines started. And I'm just wondering with copper at 15,000 or almost $15,000 a ton, what does the industry need to see in order to be confident in boosting production?
**嘉宾**：我们首先从这样一个事实讲起：如果一路追溯到摩亨佐-达罗（Mohenjo-daro）文明时期，整个人类文明史至今总共开采了大约7亿公吨的铜。这听起来似乎是个天文数字。当然，理论上你可以通过回收利用把这些铜重新收集起来——你唯一需要做的，就是把整个美国境内的所有基础设施全部拆毁，让这片土地退回到猛犸象奔跑的史前时代，这样我们大概能回收出大约3亿吨铜；在欧洲依样画葫芦，大概能回收2亿吨；在亚洲再拆除回收2亿吨。但很显然，没有哪个人愿意重新回到黑暗中受冻挨饿。 按照当前全球经济的增长速度，在这个拥有80亿人口的星球上，即便不考虑全球经济电气化带来的巨大增量，不考虑全面普及的电动汽车，更不用提数据中心的爆发式增长，仅仅为了维持全球3%的GDP自然增速，我们在接下来的短短18年内，就必须开采出与过去一万年人类文明史上开采总量完全相同的铜矿石。
Original English **Guest**: Let's start with the fact that if we go back to Mahindra Daro, um, our species has mined 700 million metric tons of copper. It sounds like a lot. Uh, and you could recycle it and get it back. All you have to do is tear down everything in the United States and make it look like the days of the woolly mammoths and we get back about 300 million tons. And in Europe we get 200 million tons and in Asia another 200 million tons. But unfortunately we don't want to go back to freezing in the dark. and um at the rate of current global economic growth with 8 billion people on this planet to maintain 3% GDP growth absent the electrification of the world economy absent electric cars and let's not even get started on data centers. We need to mine that same amount of copper that we mined in the last 10,000 years in the next 18 years.
**嘉宾**：而我们这些深耕行业内部的人都清楚，这根本就是不可能完成的任务。因为正如大家所知道的那句老话：“把五万名律师沉到海底意味着什么？答案是：一个良好的开端。”在我们国家去工业化的过程中，几乎没有任何人在任何人的居民区附近获准建造过任何大型工业设施。在过去数十年里，美国境内没有新建过哪怕一座铜冶炼厂，没有新建过核电站，也没有修建过任何一条高铁。我想我们尝试在洛杉矶和旧金山之间修建高铁已经折腾了整整30年，至今毫无结果；而中国人几乎什么都能造，他们能高效建造大型炼油厂、核电站以及四通八达的高铁网络。然而在过去的几十年里，我们把所有这些制造业能力全部外包了出去。当你走进沃尔玛时，货架上的每一件商品上面几乎都印着“中国制造”（Made in China）。事实上，北京君悦大酒店（Grand Hyatt Hotel）里最顶级的餐厅之一，就直接以这个标签命名，叫做“Made in China”（长安壹号），那是一家极其出色的中餐厅。 但时至今日，我们终于开始猛然醒悟：我们亲手让自己的国家彻底去工业化了。而我们现在极度渴求金属铜。如果你坚信全球经济需要绿色转型，如果你渴望拥有电动汽车、家用空调、微波炉，我们就必须拥有大量的金属铜——这些现代化设备全都是极度依赖铜的高消耗品。此外，我们在尖端尖端先进武器装备中同样高度依赖铜，比如像“爱国者”（Patriot）这类防空导弹拦截系统，它们正被用来抵御自二战以来我们从未见过的、突然在现代冲突中大规模针对平民的袭击武器。 更严峻的是，当前拉美地区大多数大型老牌超级铜矿，现状就像是卧病在床、奄奄一息、随时等待生命终结的老妇人一样。这正是我必须要向你们详细讲清楚的症结所在。
Original English **Guest**: and those of us that are in the industry don't see that as being possible because as you know um there's the old adage what is 50,000 lawyers at the bottom of the sea and the answer is a good start. Uh nobody has built anything near anybody in the United States as we have de-industrialized our country. We haven't built a copper smelter or nuclear power plants in this country nor highspeed trains. I think we've been trying to build high-speed trains between Los Angeles and San Francisco for 30 years, but the Chinese can build everything. They can build oil refineries, nuclear power plants, and highspeed rail. But we outsourced all that in the last decade. When you went to Walmart, everything you saw said made in China. In fact, one of the best restaurants in Beijing in the Grand High Hotel took that as a label and was called Made in China. It was a great Chinese restaurant. But now we're waking up to the fact that we've de-industrialized our country. And we need copper metal. If you believe in greening the world economy, if you want electric cars, air conditioners, microwave ovens, we need copper metal. It's very copper intensive. We also need copper in sophisticated armaments in in those kinds of missiles like Patriots that uh are interceptors against uh weaponry that are suddenly being used against civilians in conflict that we haven't seen since World War II. And this is at a time that most of the great copper mines in Latin America are little old ladies laying in bed waiting to die. [laughter] And this is something I need to explain to you guys. You know,
### 铜矿工业的历史起源：从刚果到巴拿马运河与智利 **嘉宾**：这一切的源头到底是什么？最初，全球最大的铜生产国是刚果民主共和国（DRC）。那里曾经是比利时国王利奥波德二世（King Leopold）的私人领地。他将当地的人民、大象、象牙据为己有，当地开采铜矿已有数个世纪的历史。但到了19世纪末20世纪初的世纪之交，美国动用大型蒸汽铲挖掘了巴拿马运河（Panama Canal）。在开凿运河的过程中，许多工人不幸因疟疾丧生。而在运河完工之后，现场遗留下了这批巨型蒸汽铲。当时在纽约从事旧布料与废品贸易的古根海姆家族（Guggenheim family），以极其低廉的白菜价买下了这批蒸汽铲，并将它们运往智利，开始利用它们大规模挖掘铜矿，因为当时整个世界正迈入第一次……
Original English **Guest**: so what what started all this was originally the biggest producer of copper in the world was the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It used to belong to King Leopold of Belgium. He owned the people, the elephants, the ivory, and they used they mined copper there for centuries. But around the turn of the century, America dug the Panama Canal with big steam shovels. A lot of people died of malaria digging that canal. But when the canal was finished, there were these giant steam shovels that were left over. And the Guggenheim family, who were in the rag trade here in New York, bought those shovels for pennies on the dollar and took them down to Chile uh to use them to start digging for copper metal because we were getting into the first
### 铜矿巨头的历史兴衰与资源国有化浪潮 **嘉宾**：在工业革命时期的1910年、1920年左右，人们来到智利一个叫丘基卡马塔（Chuquicamata）的地方，那里的铜矿品位高达3%。他们运去了老式的蒸汽铲进行开采。当时那家公司名叫 ASARCO（美国重金属冶炼与提炼公司），被人们戏称为“美国冶炼与抢劫公司”（American Smelting and Robbing Company）。古根海姆（Guggenheim）家族靠此赚得盆满钵满，以至于他们后来在纽约第五大道留下了由弗兰克·劳埃德·赖特（Frank Lloyd Wright）设计的所罗门·R·古根海姆现代艺术博物馆。
Original English **Guest**: industrial revolution, 1910, 1920, President Polk, and they went to a place called Chuquicamata in Chile and the grade of the copper was 3%. They took those old steam shovels and their company was called Asarco, which was affectionately known as the American Smelting and Robbing Company. And the Guggenheim family made so much money they left the Solomon R. Guggenheim Museum of Modern Art here in New York on Fifth Avenue, designed by Frank Lloyd Wright.
**嘉宾**：从我们的工业复兴中还崛起过另外两家伟大的美国矿业巨头，分别是安纳康达（Anaconda）和肯尼科特（Kennecott）。但它们后来全部被智利的一位左翼总统阿连德（Allende）收归国有。阿连德收回了这些矿山，将其归智利国家所有。而美国对此做出的回应则是将他杀害。美国中情局（CIA）谋杀了阿连德，随后由右翼将军皮诺切特（Pinochet）取而代之。但皮诺切特上位后表示：“我需要这些铜矿。”他并没有把矿山归还给美国，事实上，他把矿山保留了下来——也就是如今的智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）。他还规定，铜产量的10%必须直接上缴，用作智利军队的军费预算。
Original English **Guest**: Now, there were two other great American mining companies that rose out of our industrial renaissance. There was Anaconda and Kennecott, but all of them were nationalized by a leftist president in Chile named Allende. Allende took them away, took them for the Chilean state and America responded by killing him. The United States CIA murdered Allende and he was replaced by a right-wing general named Pinochet. And Pinochet said, "I need these copper mines." He didn't give them back to the United States. In fact, he kept them. They're called Codelco today. And he said 10% of the copper produced will come off the top to finance the Chilean army.
**嘉宾**：那可以说就是全球自然资源国有化浪潮的开端。比如大家都知道，阿美石油公司（Aramco）最初也是由一家美国石油公司创立并勘探发现的，但后来沙特阿拉伯把石油资源收归国有。如今世界上绝大部分石油都属于各自主权国家的国家石油公司。而美国最终落得在本土没有一家真正具有全球竞争力的铜业领军企业。
Original English **Guest**: And that was sort of the beginning of the wave of nationalization of resources. You know, Aramco was originally founded by an American oil company and then Saudi Arabia took the oil back and today most of the oil in the world belongs to sovereign oil companies and America was left without a great copper champion.
### 早期进入中国与初级矿业公司的演变 **嘉宾**：在我年轻的时候，大概是在克林顿执政时期，我们开始拥抱中国。而我进入中国的时间非常早，早在1980年代初就第一次去了中国。当时是乔治·舒尔茨（George Shultz）把我引荐到了中国。事实上，我是第一个去中国开展矿业勘探与开采业务的美国人，地点是在中国西部的新疆。
Original English **Guest**: And when I was younger during say the Clinton era we started embracing China. I was very early into China. I first went into China in the early 1980s. George Schultz introduced me to China. I was in fact the first American to go mining in China in western China in Xinjiang.
**嘉宾**：一路走来，我亲眼见证了中国人民令人难以置信的崛起历程。在人类历史上，从来没有任何一个国家能够以如此快的速度将经济提升到如此高的高度。当时我们曾天真地以为，只要把中国拉进世界贸易组织（WTO），就能把中国人变成美国人的模样。我们以为所有的中国女孩都想要莫罗·伯拉尼克（Manolo Blahnik）的高跟鞋和爱马仕铂金包（Birkin bags），所有的中国男士都想要保时捷跑车。他们在提升自身社会生活水平方面取得了举世瞩目的成就。但是，我们两个社会之间的实际走向，并未完全如我们当初所预想的那样发展。
Original English **Guest**: And you know I've watched the incredible rise of the Chinese people. No one has uplifted their economy that far that fast in human history. And we thought by bringing China into the WTO we were going to turn the Chinese into Americans. We thought all the girls wanted Manolo Blahnik shoes and Birkin bags. All the guys wanted Porsches and they did an incredible job of uplifting their society. But things haven't worked out exactly as we thought between our respective societies.
**嘉宾**：在长达数十年的时间里，绝大部分的矿产勘探与开发重任，都落在了在澳大利亚或加拿大上市的初级矿业公司（Junior Mining Companies）肩上。这些公司之所以选择在加拿大注册，就如同远洋货轮习惯在利比里亚注册旗籍一样。加拿大当地的法律法规对矿业勘探所面临的高风险更为友好宽容。成千上万家这样的小型初级矿业公司奔赴世界各地到处寻找矿藏。与此相对的是，那些大型矿业巨头却变得越来越缺乏活力、越来越僵化迟钝。它们演变成了如同甜甜圈形状的庞大律师事务所，核心内部只包裹着平庸的实体运营部门。举例来说，埃克森美孚（ExxonMobil）如今其实根本不再亲自去钻井采油了。它更像是一个庞大的法务合规机构，钻井作业都外包雇佣斯伦贝谢（Schlumberger）或贝克休斯（Baker Hughes）这样的专业服务商来干，自己只负责过手管理。
Original English **Guest**: Now most of the mining fell to junior mining companies listed in Australia or Canada for decades. These companies were registered in Canada like ships are registered in Liberia. Legislation was friendlier up there for the risks with mining. Thousands of these little juniors would go around looking for mining. And the big mining companies became more and more brain dead. They became like giant donut-shaped law firms with mediocre operating companies in the middle. For example, Exxon doesn't really drill for oil today. It's a big law firm, but they hire people like Schlumberger or Baker Hughes to do their work and they just sort of move on.
### 从膳食金字塔到国防部的战略误判 **嘉宾**：如果你回顾一下当年的食物链模型——在我小时候，我是成长于1950年代，美国政府为我们制定了一套膳食营养金字塔。它上面写着你每天应该喝四杯牛奶，还要摄入固定分量的奶酪、鸡蛋和火腿，而在那个食物金字塔的最顶端则是牛排红肉。我们上学的时候，学校里教给我们的就是这个食物金字塔。记得我小时候，八岁那年的记忆依然历历在目：学校组织防核演习，让我们钻到课桌底下去躲避潜在的核弹轰炸。当时我就是那个当面怼老师的孩子，我说：“这简直荒谬透顶，一旦爆发核战争，我们所有人都会被瞬间气化！”我骨子里总有一种叛逆精神，总爱惹上点麻烦。现在呢，在我认识的加州圈子里，已经没有任何人按照当年那个金字塔的食谱去吃了。大家都去 Erewhon 有机超市，喝喝小麦草汁、晒晒太阳、练练普拉提，再也没人碰当年推荐的那些东西了。
Original English **Guest**: And if you look at the food chain, when I was young, I grew up in the 1950s, the United States government made a little pyramid, food pyramid for us, and it said you're supposed to drink four glasses of cow's milk every day and a certain amount of milk and cheese and eggs and ham. And at the top of that food pyramid was steak meat. And when I was in school, you know, we were given that food pyramid. And when I was a kid, you know, I'm remembering this vividly at the age of eight, they made us get under the desk to practice for nuclear war in the event of a nuclear bomb. And I was the kid that told my teacher, "This is crazy. We're all going to get vaporized if there's a nuclear war," always a rebel, always sort of getting in trouble. Now, nobody that I know of in California eats out of that food pyramid anymore. People go to Erewhon and you know maybe wheatgrass juice and sunlight and some Pilates, but there's nobody eating that stuff anymore.
**嘉宾**：但我想要告诉大家的是，五角大楼（美国国防部）曾经也搞了一套战略物资的“金字塔”体系，而他们完全把这个金字塔搞错了。现代战争真正需要的关键物资，根本不是他们金字塔里列出的那些陈旧东西。所以今天我才能来到《Odd Lots》节目，试图给各位讲清楚现代矿业背后那不可思议的魔力。
Original English **Guest**: But I want you to know the Pentagon also had a food pyramid and they got that all wrong. And what modern warfare requires is none of the stuff in that food pyramid. And so now I get to get on Odd Lots and try to explain the magic of mining to you guys.
**主持人**：太精彩了，确实不可思议。再重申一下，不是为了继续拿嬉皮士生活方式开玩笑，但作为一个从小在小麦草汁环绕的环境中长大的人，我感觉历史真是一个轮回，仿佛我早就为当下这一刻做好了准备。好，那我们就深入聊聊那个金字塔吧。假设现在的政治环境突然发生了根本性的转变——比如我们不再需要应付海量的法务律师，周边居民也不会再因为住在矿山旁边而抗议投诉，诸如此类在现实中几乎不可能发生的神迹全部成真。你能不能从纯数学和工程学的角度，为我们梳理一下你在供需之间所预见到的巨大缺口？为了填补满足金字塔关键层级所需的供给，我们在工程实施或资金投入层面究竟需要付出怎样的代价？
Original English **Host**: Amazing. Amazing. You know, just again, not to keep belaboring the point as hippies, but as someone who grew up with in the presence of a lot of wheatgrass once again, it feels like history comes back and I was well prepared for this moment. All right, let's talk about that pyramid then. You know, let's just say the politics suddenly changed such that like you didn't need a lot of lawyers, such that people didn't complain if they lived in the presence of a mine or so. I don't know, miraculous things that could never happen. Why don't you just talk about I guess the math and the engineering in terms of like the deficit that you foresee between demand supply and what it would take I guess from an engineering standpoint or a money standpoint to build out the supply that we need for whatever are the key rungs of that pyramid.
### 全球第一大铜矿埃斯孔迪达的困境与工程瓶颈 **嘉宾**：这是一个极其精妙深刻的问题，正好为听众揭开了一个极其庞大且棘手的话题。全球目前最大的铜矿是位于智利的埃斯孔迪达（Escondida）铜矿。我们需要以冷静客观的眼光去审视它，以此来理解我们当前所面临的生死存亡般的生存困境。
Original English **Guest**: That's a brilliant question and opens up an amazing can of worms for your audience. Um so the largest copper mine in the world is Escondida. It's in Chile and and we need to look at that clinically to try to understand the existential dilemma we face.
**嘉宾**：大约一代人以前刚发现这座矿山时，其铜矿石的平均品位接近2%。经过多年不断往地底深挖、越挖越深，如今它的品位已经降到了0.8%。这座矿山由必和必拓（BHP）和力拓（Rio Tinto）共同持有，它们是西方世界乃至全球最大的矿业巨头。然而再过两年，该矿的矿石品位将进一步下滑至0.4%。随着品位的持续衰减，露天矿坑深处的岩石硬度也变得越来越高，破碎和研磨的难度呈指数级上升。
Original English **Guest**: When it was first found a generation ago the grade was close to 2% copper. They've been digging deeper deeper deeper and today it's 0.8 of 1%. It belongs to Rio Tinto and BHP the largest mining companies in the world in the western world. But within two years the grade is going to drop to 0.4 of 1%. So the grade is going down and as that grade declines the rock deeper in the pit is getting harder and harder to crush and grind.
**嘉宾**：为了把金属从矿石中提取出来，你必须把坚硬的岩石彻底粉碎研磨成如同滑石粉一样细致的粉末。我们从矿石中提炼金属的基本物理方式就是将其磨成滑石粉。目前，整个地球上所生产的所有能源中，大约有4%到5%全部消耗在矿石的破碎与研磨工序上。在全人类都在高度担忧温室气体排放与全球变暖的背景下，这是一个极其惊人的能耗数字。
Original English **Guest**: And you need to take rock and reduce it to talcum powder to get the metal out. The way we get the metal out of rock is we make talcum powder out of it. And about 4 to 5% of all the energy produced on planet Earth is utilized in the crushing and grinding of rock, which is a huge number when we're worried about the generation of global warming gas.
**嘉宾**：更严峻的是，这座矿山坐落在安第斯山脉海拔12,000英尺（约3,650米）的高原上，而它所在的阿塔卡马沙漠（Atacama Desert）已经整整三万年没有下过一场雨了。在实际选矿流程中，每粉碎研磨一立方米的矿石，就需要消耗整整两立方米的水。因此，随着矿石中铜含量的品位持续下降，你必须破碎研磨成倍增加的矿石量，最终却只能得到越来越少的金属产出。
Original English **Guest**: Now, that mine sits at 12,000 ft elevation in the Andes and it hasn't rained in the Atacama Desert in 30,000 years. And you need two cubic meters of water to crush one cubic meter of rock. So as the grade of that rock is declining in copper, you need you need to crush and grind more and more rock to get less and less metal.
**嘉宾**：在智利，发电主要依然依赖燃煤。尽管他们也建设了一部分太阳能电站，但每天日照有效发电时间只有6个小时，而现代采矿选矿工业需要的是一天24小时不间断的稳定基荷电力。因此，破碎和研磨这些低品位铜矿石所产生的温室气体排放量正在节节攀升。
Original English **Guest**: And since you're generating the electricity in Chile by burning primarily coal, they have some solar, but the sun only shines 6 hours a day. You need 24-hour day power in the mining industry. The global warming gas generated by crushing and grinding that copper is going up and up and up.
**嘉宾**：更令人难以置信的是，为了解决缺水问题，他们在海平面位置耗资40亿美元建造了一座大型海水淡化厂。他们抽取海洋海水进行脱盐淡化处理，仅仅为了这一项运作，每天就要消耗价值100万美元的电力，因为你必须把脱盐后的水从海平面一路加压抽送到海拔12,000英尺的高山矿区。一边是耗水量不断上升，将净化后的淡水逆流抽上海拔高处的能耗不断飙升；另一边却是冶金回收率不断下降。结果就是，他们正在规划投入100亿到120亿美元的巨额资本开支，最终换来的却只是该矿山总产量的不断下滑。这就是我们整个矿业行业目前面临的真实写照：今年全球铜的总产量事实上处于下降态势，哪怕当前铜价一直在大幅上涨。
Original English **Guest**: And to further confuse you, they built a a $4 billion desalinization plant at sea level. They take ocean water, get the salt out of it. That's using a million dollars a day of electricity because you have to pump that water from sea level up to 12,000 ft. And the water consumption is going up. The energy to generate and pump that clean water uphill is going up and the metallurgical recovery is going down and so they're modeling 10 12 billion of investment just to make that mine go down in production and that is what's happened to our industry. Our global production of copper this year is down even though prices are up.
### 算力浪潮与资本错配下的资源断层 **嘉宾**：这种产出收缩令人触目惊心，因为正如我刚刚所提到的，即使完全不考虑全球经济的电气化转型，仅仅为了维持全球GDP每年3%的常规增长，我们在未来18年内所需要开采出来的铜矿总量，就相当于人类过去一万年开采总量的总和！
Original English **Guest**: And that's amazing because I just told you we need to mine as much copper in the next 18 years as we did in the last 10,000 years just to maintain global 3% GDP growth without the electrification of the world economy.
**嘉宾**：现在如果你把视线转向数据中心领域，情况真的就像我们前面用过的那个词一样，变得愈发“迷幻”（笑声）。因为那些超大规模云计算与科技巨头（Hyperscalers）拥有极其庞大的市值，他们掌握着极具爆发力和病毒式传播特性的软件技术。事实上，在过去30年里，华尔街的所有资本几乎全涌向了那些光鲜亮丽的热门科技概念——比如互联网、宽带、Netflix流媒体以及无线通信技术。所有的年轻精英人才全都投身于这些赛道，彭博演播室也正是在这一浪潮中建立起来的。
Original English **Guest**: Now when you look at data centers it really gets if you want to use our earlier term psychedelic [laughter] because the hyperscalers have incredible market capitalizations and they they had a beautiful viral technology and in fact in the last 30 years all the capital on Wall Street went into sexy technology like the internet and broadband and Netflix and wireless and all the kids went into that and the Bloomberg studios were built.
**嘉宾**：然而，当所有资金和注意力全都流向那个方向时，我们却完全没有把资本投入到基础原材料领域，而原材料恰恰是承载这所有一切的基石。实际上，我们在美国本土早就停止了绝大部分矿产的开采，反而将这整套供应链全部推给了中国。我们……
Original English **Guest**: But when all the money goes in that direction, we didn't put money into basic raw materials which are the which are the foundation on which everything sits. In fact, we stopped mining things in the United States. And we we sort of pushed this all to China. We
### 全球化分工的幻觉与算力能源危机 **嘉宾**：过去人们曾说，好吧，那就让中国人来为沃尔玛制造所有的商品吧。你走进沃尔玛超市，货架上的每一件东西都贴着“中国制造”的标签。这样一来，所有的生产污染都留在了中国。而我们当时还自以为占了大便宜，心想我们完全可以转型为一个纯粹的消费型社会：我们大可以坐在这里一边喝着拿铁咖啡，一边抱怨全球变暖，把所有脏活累活都甩给中国人去做。 然而，这种发展模式如今已经难以为继了。现在我们终于大梦初醒，猛然意识到现实中确实存在着一条极为关键的原材料供应链。在拜登政府时期，我曾与负责能源转型的阿莫斯·霍克斯坦（Amos Hochstein）共事，那时大家关注的焦点全在全球变暖上。大家应该还记得走出疫情时的那个世界，我们眼看着气温越来越高，于是开始筹划绿色转型：搞太阳能发电需要大量的铜，建风力发电也需要大量的铜；我们发电和输电的方式离不开铜，就连我们现在录节目的这间演播室，用铜量和耗电量也高得惊人。实际上，互联网本身根本没有任何天生环保的属性。 让我给你们举个具体的例子。当你在谷歌上进行一次搜索时——我们所有人都经常用谷歌搜索——只要你敲下回车键，那一次搜索所消耗的电能，就相当于让一只100瓦的灯泡持续点亮大约12秒钟。单看一次搜索可能觉得微不足道，但全世界每天都在进行成百上千亿次的谷歌搜索。而这些电力绝不是免费凭空而来的；你在搜索时看似免费，实际上背后的巨额电费全是由商业广告买单的。 而现在，当你使用人工智能进行一次检索时——我自己用 ChatGPT-4，你们这里用 Claude——每一次 AI 检索所消耗的电能，是传统搜索的30倍以上，相当于把那只100瓦的灯泡连续点亮两到三分钟。放眼全球，未来每一个拿着 iPad 的五岁小孩都会频繁使用 AI 检索。因此，人工智能对电力的需求实际上正在呈指数级爆炸，直奔无穷大而去。
Original English **Guest**: ...said, well, let's let the Chinese build everything at Walmart. You go to Walmart, everything said made in China. So, all the pollution was over there in China. And we thought, this is a good deal. We can be a consumer society. We'll drink our lattes here and complain about global warming and just let the Chinese do all the work. And this model is no longer viable. And now we're waking up and finding that there really is a critical raw material supply chain. In the Biden administration, when I used to work with Amos Hochstein who was in charge of the energy transition, it was all about global warming. And you remember that world, as we came out of COVID, we saw that it was getting hotter and hotter, and we started thinking: for solar power you need copper; for wind you need copper. The way we generate electrical energy, the way we transmit it—this studio is ludicrously copper intensive and energy intensive. And there is nothing, and I mean nothing, about the internet that is inherently green. Let me give you an example. When you do a Google search—and all of us are guilty of having done a Google search—you push that key, you're using the amount of electrical energy that it takes to run a 100-watt light bulb for about 12 seconds, which doesn't sound like a lot, but there are hundreds of billions of Google searches. And that electricity is not free. You think it's free when you do that Google search, but it's paid for by advertising. Now, when you do an AI search—and I use ChatGPT-4, and we're using Claude—and you do an AI search, you're using 30 times more electrical energy, using the power it takes to run a 100-watt bulb for 2 minutes or 3 minutes. And every single kid in the world, a 5-year-old with an iPad, is going to be using AI searches. And so, the electrical demand for AI literally goes to infinity.
### AI 本质上是军事技术：低轨卫星与无人机战争 **嘉宾**：现在我们的难题和困境就摆在这里了：人工智能在其根源上，本质上是一门军事技术。我想解释一下为什么会这样，你想听听看吗？ **Joe**：请讲。 **嘉宾**：我们有一位天才般的博学家，名叫埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）。他的大脑思维构架远远超出了绝大多数人的理解范畴，在很多方面让我深深联想到史蒂夫·乔布斯（Steve Jobs）。他开发了一整套低地球轨道卫星网络，当我们将信号发射到外太空并返回地面时，单程与往返的传输延迟仅有区区两千七百万分之一秒。 试想一下，如果我派出一架无人机去刺杀你，Joe，即便你最近把胡子留长了一点，它依然能瞬间识别出你的面容特征。它可以精准识别人相，躲避侦察。它们可以是微型无人机，也可以由母机释放出一群子无人机。无人机在战场上搜寻你的踪迹，就像科幻片里的场景一样，它唯一要做的就是精准撞击并吸附在你的眉心处。轰的一声，瞬间毙命。 这就是纯粹的军事技术。现代无人机技术的作战效能高到了什么程度？之前我们援助给乌克兰的豹式主战坦克（Leopard tanks）和艾布拉姆斯主战坦克（Abrams tanks），现在基本上全都趴窝停用、不再开上前线了。因为一架造价仅需12美元的廉价无人机，就能凭借排气管散发出的微弱热辐射特征精准锁定它们，然后一击将其彻底摧毁。 所以说，现代无人机蜂群作战完全依赖于人工智能。通过 AI 自动识别并锁定目标，信号上行传输至低轨卫星，随后下行传输指令完成目标清除。如果我的卫星通信系统比你的卫星系统哪怕快了一百万分之一秒的延迟，那么死的就是你，活下来的就是我。因此，人工智能最顶尖的技术必然首先应用于军事领域。
Original English **Guest**: Now, here's our problem. Here is our dilemma. AI is at its roots a military technology. And I want to explain why. Do you want to hear this? **Joe**: Please. **Guest**: So, we have a genius, a polymath named Elon Musk. His brain is beyond most people's comprehension. It reminds me a lot of Steve Jobs. But he's developed a series of low Earth orbiting satellites where the latency when we send a signal up to outer space is 27 millionths of a second going up and coming down. Now if I'm sending a drone to kill you, Joe, it knows what you look like even though you've grown your beard a little longer. It can identify... you know, little micro drone. They could be a mother drone; it releases baby drones. And this drone is looking for you. And going back to the era, all it has to do is attach itself to your third eye. Boom. And you're gone. Now, this is a military technology. Drone technology is so efficacious that the Leopard tanks and the Abrams tanks we were giving to Ukraine are parked and no longer used because a $12 drone can find them from the heat signature from the tailpipe and just kill them. So drone warfare depends on AI, because there's an AI identification of the target, up it goes to the satellite, it comes back down, wipes out the target. And if my satellite system has a millionth of a second less latency than yours, you die, I don't.
### 人形机器人、AI 伴侣与关键原材料 **嘉宾**：AI 技术在军事应用成熟之后，随之而来的才是民用和娱乐化，比如变成一个供人谈情说爱的漂亮性感玩偶。中国目前就在大规模销售这类精致的仿生机器人。而这些具身人形机器人的制造，同样会消耗天文数字级别的关键矿物原材料。 未来的机器人可能演变成冷酷无情的终结者，也可能成为极其体贴温柔、善解人意的情感伴侣，随时陪你聊天慰藉心灵。但所有这些尖端技术，无一例外都是极度吞噬电能的巨兽。 你手机里所谓的“AI 女友”，本质上是由远端庞大的服务器集群实时运算出来的。而数据中心机房里的每一台服务器，都需要耗费多达20种关键金属元素，这些金属就是数字时代的“新石油”。普通人甚至根本不知道服务器的制造需要金属铌（Niobium）、钽（Tantalum）、铂（Platinum）、铑（Rhodium）和铼（Rhenium）。再比如，英伟达的黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）制造高算力芯片离不开氮化镓（Gallium Nitride）；如果你想大幅提升芯片内存与处理性能，就必须用到氮化钪（Scandium Nitride）。 过去美军海陆空三军赖以运转的物质基础，主要依赖于煤炭、石油这些传统能源，老旧的资源结构里顶多只需要用到少量的铜；而在今天的时代金字塔中，核心全变成了这些我们所说的关键原材料。
Original English **Guest**: So AI first goes to military application and later on it goes to a beautiful sexy doll to make love with. They're selling those beautiful robots right now in China. And those humanoid robots also will utilize astronomic amounts of these same critical raw materials. And maybe those robots will be a terminator or maybe they'll make a great lover, you know, very sympathetic chatting to you. But all of these technologies are insanely consumptive of electrical energy. Your AI girlfriend is actually created by servers, and a server in a server farm uses 20 critical metals that are the new oil, and you don't even know that you need niobium, and tantalum, and platinum, and rhodium, and rhenium. Or for example, if you're Jensen Huang and you've got Nvidia, you need gallium nitride, or if you want to improve memory and chips, you need scandium nitride. And so instead of the food pyramid that the Army, Navy, and Air Force relied on in those days—it was stuff like coal and oil, and yeah, they had a little bit of copper in the old food pyramid—today it's what we call critical raw materials.
### 代际观念变迁与人机依恋 **Joe**：别忘了还有 AI 男友呢。在准社交情感关系上，我们得一视同仁、机会均等。 **嘉宾**：完全赞同。如果你想要一个阿诺德·施瓦辛格风格的男性仿生机器人，它们也快问世了，很快就会像新上映的大片一样出现在你身边的各大商场里。机器人的执行器、伺服电机，以及那些需要随时接入电网充电的动力部件，全都在极深程度上依赖 AI 控制；而我们正在构建的这一整部令人叹为观止的庞大科技机器，其底层全部受制于我刚才提到的那些关键金属。 **Joe**：我真没想到今天的对话会成为我公开表达个人观点的契机。不过天哪，既然我们聊到这儿了…… **嘉宾**：你该不会是要聊对性爱机器人的看法吧？ **Joe**：倒不完全是指性爱机器人本身，但本质逻辑是相通的。我觉得就像婴儿潮那一代理性上必须学会接受自己的孩子可能是同性恋一样；随后的 X 世代父母必须学会接受自己的孩子可能会有跨性别的伴侣；而对于千禧一代来说，他们这一代人未来不得不去适应的，将是自己的孩子领着一个实体 AI 机器人或者虚拟伴侣回家见父母。要是父母胆敢表现出半点不尊重，孩子们还会冲父母大发雷霆。不过话说回来，你继续往下讲。
Original English **Joe**: AI girlfriends and boyfriends, please. Let's be equal opportunity for parasocial relationship. **Guest**: We agree. If you want an Arnold Schwarzenegger style male robot, they're coming and they're opening soon at a theater near you. And the actuators, the electrical motors, these things that are going to go and plug themselves into the grid to recharge are incredibly dependent on AI and this whole unbelievable machine we're building that requires the metals that I'm talking to you about right now. **Joe**: I didn't expect this conversation to be the moment where I sort of reveal one of my takes. But god, while we're here... **Guest**: It's not on sex robots, is it? **Joe**: It's not on sex robots, per se, but kind of in the sense that I think that like the boomer generation had to sort of get comfortable with the fact that their children might be gay. The millennial, the Gen X generation had to get comfortable that their children might have trans partners. And the millennial generation is going to be the one that has to get comfortable when someone brings back their AI robot or girlfriend and they're going to get mad at their parents when they don't respect it. Anyway, keep going.
### 传统采矿技术的瓶颈与能源困境 **嘉宾**：感谢你生动的描绘，Joe。我们言归正传，重新回到铜资源的话题上来。 **Joe**：技术进步能否打破我们在采矿领域一直面临的产能限制？因为在你从业的整个职业生涯中，采矿行业内部必然出现过诸多技术革新，而且我们都知道页岩油革命以及它所带来的颠覆性改变。在你看重，当下的科技发展能否以某种方式推动金属产能的大幅提升？ **嘉宾**：这个嘛，既然我们已经释放了 AI 的力量——但愿我们也能彻底掌控具备实体的人形机器人，不过这目前依然是个悬而未决的未知数。顺便声明一下，我可不是什么机器人，我只是个当爷爷的老头子。你提的这些问题非常切中要害。 作为矿业从业者，如果我们依然依赖过去的陈旧技术，根本不可能勘探并以负责任的方式开采出支撑全球能源转型所需的巨量铜矿，这在物理上是绝对不可能完成的。在未来18年里，如果我们继续沿用昨天的老旧开采工艺，我们不仅挖不出更多的铜，反而会排放出惊人数量的温室气体，从而彻底背离我们最初为了遏制全球变暖而搞转型的初衷。 单看能源消耗成本就知道了：且不说别的，单是重型机械所需的柴油价格就已经飞涨上了天。让我们来好好剖析一下这个现实。
Original English **Guest**: Thank you for that image, Joe. Back to copper. **Joe**: Does technology solve any of the mining constraints that we've had? because there must have been technological developments in the industry over the course of your career and of course we all know about the shale revolution and what happened there. Do you see tech advancing in such a way that maybe production does increase? **Guest**: Well, now that we've unleashed AI and—and I hope a card carrying humanoid that we can control, you know, that's an open question. I want to tell you I'm not a robot. I'm a grandfather. You're asking some very very important questions. We cannot as an industry find and responsibly mine the copper that we need for an energy transition with yesterday's technology. It's just impossible. We can't mine more copper in the next 18 years with yesterday's technology without generating the same global warming gas that we were worried about in the first place. Because the energy requirement—I'm just talking about diesel, the diesel price has skyrocketed. Let's talk about that.
### 霍尔木兹海峡危机与硫酸供应短缺 **嘉宾**：如今霍尔木兹海峡在很大程度上依然处于封锁停运状态。流入国际市场的全球碳氢化合物总量至少骤降了10%，随之而来的三重衍生连锁反应更是令人不寒而栗。 就拿硫酸来说吧：全球提炼回收的铜矿中，约有25%必须依赖硫酸进行湿法堆浸萃取，而这部分工业硫酸很大程度上产自中东地区，是由卡塔尔等地的天然气净化副产物加工而来的。由于海峡航运受阻、原料短缺，在过去短短八个月里，国际市场上工业硫酸的价格已经从原本的每吨150美元暴涨到了每吨1000美元以上。 硫酸不仅用于提炼铜，它还是生产化肥农业用粮、制造半导体芯片必不可少的核心原料。硫酸堪称工业界的“化学品之王”。然而令人讽刺的是，海峡封锁的衍生后果之一，竟然是硫酸价格的失控暴涨。 在刚果（金），我们主要采用堆浸法提炼铜，当地约有25%的铜产能极度渴求硫酸。我们公司非常幸运，因为我们在非洲大陆投资建造了规模最大、技术最先进的现代化炼铜厂。我们开采铜矿冶炼过程中，自身就会副产大量的优质工业硫酸。我们甚至能以不断攀升的高价，把这些多余的硫酸转卖给刚果（金）同行的其他铜矿企业。 但从全球范围来看，工业硫酸正面临着全方位的严重短缺。俄罗斯和中国目前都已经下达指令，禁止硫酸的对外出口。如果我们无法获取充足的硫酸供应，全球范围内的粮食和化肥价格势必会迎来新一轮暴涨。
Original English **Guest**: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed largely today. Global hydrocarbon coming to the market is down at least 10% and the tertiary implications are terrifying. Sulfuric acid: about 25% of the copper that we recover in the world requires sulfuric acid to leech it, and it comes out of the Middle East from natural gas in places like Qatar. So without that sulfuric acid, we've seen prices in the last eight months go from $150 a ton to well over $1,000 a ton for sulfuric acid. It's also used to make fertilizer for food or to make semiconductors. Sulfuric acid is the king of chemicals, but it's a funny byproduct of the closure of the strait that the price of sulfuric acid is skyrocketing. And in the Congo, we heap leach copper. About 25% of the production needs that very same sulfuric acid. Now, I'm fortunate in that our company built the largest copper smelter on the African continent. It's the most modern copper smelter built in the world. And we produce sulfuric acid as a byproduct of our copper mines. And we sell that sulfuric acid to our brother copper miners in the Congo at higher and higher prices. But there is a worldwide shortage of sulfuric acid. Russia and China have now banned the export of sulfuric acid. And if we don't have more of it, food prices are going to rise globally.
### 供应链重构：从“零库存即时制”走向“防患未然备用制” **嘉宾**：我们正在目睹通胀苗头沿着整条供应链向上持续蔓延。过去那种高度全球化、精细分工的“零库存即时供应”（Just-in-time）世界经济体系正在分崩离析，迅速退化转变为人人自危的“防患未然备用制”（Just-in-case）经济模式。 我说的“防患未然备用制”究竟是什么意思？这意味着世界上的每一个国家，现在都不得不未雨绸缪，急迫地将目光转向本国自身的供应链安全。
Original English **Guest**: And we are seeing incipient inflation arising through the supply chain as our beautiful integrated just-in-time world economy breaks down into a just-in-case economy. And now what do I mean by just-in-case? Every country in the world is looking to their own supply chain.
### 地缘军备竞赛与铜作为货币锚点的崛起 **Robert Friedland**：日本正在扩充军备，朝韩双方也都在增强各自的军事力量，他们彼此互不待见。台湾正努力把自己变成一只巨大的“刺猬”。事实上，如果台湾落入中国大陆的控制，半导体制造企业台积电（TSMC）以及制造芯片光刻机的阿斯麦（ASML）都已被设定好，一旦落入中方之手就会被炸毁。中国自身有着庞大的军备建设。印度和巴基斯坦一年多前还爆发过冲突，险些演变成核冲突，他们双方也都在增加各自的国防预算。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Japan is building up its military. North and South Korea are building up their respective militaries. They don't like each other. Taiwan is trying to turn into a big porcupine. And in fact, if Taiwan goes to Chinese control, TSMC, they're a semiconductor company, and ASML, who make the lithograph machines to make semiconductors, are rigged to be exploded in the event of falling into Chinese hands. China has a massive military buildup. India and Pakistan fought a war a little over a year ago. Could have gone nuclear. They're both increasing their military budgets.
**Robert Friedland**：欧洲也正在惊醒，正将国防预算提升至 GDP 的 3%，他们对俄罗斯的无人机和非常规战争感到担忧。如你所知，特朗普政府正提议明年制定 1.5 万亿美元的预算，其中 50% 用于国防。而所有这些现代国防系统都需要消耗大量的铜。当这些国家开始把铜视为货币的影子代理时，会发生什么呢？
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Europe is waking up and going to a 3% GDP military budget, worried about Russian drones and unconventional warfare. And you know, the Trump administration is proposing a 1.5 trillion dollar budget next year, 50% for defense. And all of these modern systems are copper intensive. And what happens as these countries start to look at copper as a proxy on money?
**Robert Friedland**：我们来解释一下这一点：在过去一两年里，我们看到铜的美元价格从 4 美元涨到了 6 美元或 7 美元。但如果你生活在日本，日元兑美元汇率曾经是 50、60、70，后来一路贬值到 160 日元兑 1 美元。这意味着购买铜需要花费多得多的日元。在日本看来，铜的价格简直像是翻了一倍。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Let's just explain that in the last year or two, we've seen the dollar price of copper go from $4 to $6 or $7. But if you live in Japan, it was only 50, 60, 70 of the dollar as it went to 160 of the dollar. It just took so much more yen to buy copper. It looks twice as expensive in Japan.
**Robert Friedland**：事实上，正如我们的财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）正试图阻止日元崩盘那样——虽然日元贬值对你所有对冲基金听众的套息交易（carry trade）非常有利，但如果日元彻底崩溃，“渡边太太”（日本散户投资者）可能就不会再买我们的国债了，进而导致美国利率飙升得更高，这对中期选举或者 2028 年的大选可没有任何好处。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And in fact, as Scott Bessent, our Treasury Secretary, is trying to prevent the yen from melting down, it's so good for the carry trade for all your hedge fund listeners. But if the yen collapses, Mrs. Watanabe might not buy our treasuries and then rates go even higher and that wouldn't be good for the midterm elections or the 2028 elections.
### 矿业困境与 BANANA 原则：资本、监管与技术突围 **Robert Friedland**：所以，我们已经到了紧要关头，而在矿业领域我们一直缺乏足够的资本和技术投入。这就回到了你的问题：我们能否发挥“洋基式的聪明才智”（Yankee ingenuity），通过创新打破困局，逃出犹如《夺宝奇兵2：魔宫传奇》（Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom）中那四面正在向我们挤压而来的石壁？
Original English **Robert Friedland**: So, we've come to a point where push has come to shove and we just haven't had enough capital or technology in the mining industry. So, we're getting back to your question. Can we use Yankee ingenuity and innovate our way out of the fact that the walls are crushing in on us that you know, Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom?
**Host**：你真的很擅长用比喻，我必须得这么说。
Original English **Host**: You definitely have a way with metaphors. Can I just say that?
**Robert Friedland**：不，我们这些身处矿业行业的人常常抓破脑袋感到困惑：难道华尔街的那些人就不明白建一座矿山有多艰难吗？亚利桑那州的“决议铜矿项目”（Resolution Copper Project）为了获取许可证已经耗费了整整 35 年。这就是所谓的“BANANA 原则”——在任何人的周围绝对什么都别建（Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anybody）。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Well, no. Those of us in the mining industry scratch our heads and wonder, don't these people on Wall Street understand how hard it is to build a mine? The Resolution Copper Project in Arizona has been trying to get a permit for 35 years. So, the banana principle is build absolutely nothing anywhere near anybody.
**Robert Friedland**：老话常说：“50,000 个律师沉入海底叫什么？”答案是：“一个良好的开端。”日本只有 2,000 名律师，整个社会却运转自如，而我们却有数百万名律师。所以，我们必须重新将铜视为一种正向的公共善品。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And the old adage was, what's 50,000 lawyers at the bottom of the sea? And the answer was a good start. How does Japan work with only 2,000 lawyers? We have millions. So, we need to reperceive copper as a good.
**Robert Friedland**：在拜登政府时期，我们终于促成了铜被列入关键原材料清单之一。但在拜登政府领导下的民主党人，始终无法下定决心给任何一座矿山颁发真正的“认可印章”。他们逐渐开始意识到我们需要这些矿产资金，否则就必须继续燃烧煤炭或石油。他们当时正朝着正确的方向迈进。我曾与负责能源转型的阿莫斯（Amos Hochstein）共事，他们认识到太阳能虽好，风能虽好，但风并不总是在吹，太阳并不总是在照耀，你必须有电网级储能电池。我对地热能非常痴迷。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And in the Biden administration, we finally got copper added to one of the lists as a critical raw material. But the Democratic Party under the Biden administration couldn't bring themselves to putting a Good Housekeeping seal of approval on a mine. They were sort of warming up to the idea that we need money, otherwise you have to burn coal or oil and they were moving in the right direction. I worked with Amos, he was in charge of the energy transition, and they were recognizing that solar is good, wind is good, but you know the wind doesn't blow all the time, the sun doesn't shine all the time. You need gridscale batteries. My obsession is with geothermal power.
**Robert Friedland**：而我的另一大痴迷，则是用一种更清洁、更环保的方式来提炼出这些金属。好消息是，我们正在研发可用的颠覆性技术。我们得到了众多顶级科技投资人以及日本、法国和美国等多国政府的支持。尽管极为艰难，但我们确实认为有可能通过技术创新走出这个困局。但这将是一场极其艰难且寸土必争的硬仗。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And my obsession is with a cleaner and greener way to liberate these metals. And the good news is that there is disruptive technology available that we are working on. We've had the support of a lot of major tech investors and a number of governments, Japanese, French, and the United States government. And we do think it is, with great difficulty, possible to innovate our way out of this mess. But it's going to be very tough and it's going to be a very closely fought thing.
### 全球巴尔干化与关键矿产博弈：从加拿大基建到二战租借法案的历史镜像 **Host**：我知道当我们谈及你们的实际业务版图时，你经常提到非洲，我们也讨论过南美洲。但在如今这个人人都在谈论巴尔干化或资源民族主义的世界里，本周早些时候有新闻报道，虽然加拿大不是你们实际开矿挖地的地方，但你们在那里设有基地，加拿大政府宣布投资 4.05 亿美元建设一个新公路项目，以完善该国部分地区的交通运输基础设施。加拿大拥有极为丰富的关键矿产资源。你认为那里存在巨大的机遇吗？如果现任加拿大政府真的像表现出来的那样，以一种以往自由党政府不曾有过的严肃态度对待资源投资，只要我们投资基础设施修建公路去把矿产运出来，你对此感到乐观还是看到了巨大前景？
Original English **Host**: You know, I recognize that when we talk about your actual operational footprint, you talk about Africa. We've also talked about South America in this world now where everybody is trying to call balkanization or resource nationalism or so forth. Earlier this week, I know it's not where you're digging stuff out of the ground, but where you have kind of a base in Canada, there was a news of the government investing 405 million on a new highway project to build out the transportation infrastructure in parts of the country, a country that is endowed with quite a bit of important materials. Do you think there is a big opportunity there? The current government actually seems quite serious about resource investment in a way that perhaps prior Liberal governments in Canada hadn't been. Are you optimistic, or do you see a prospect for there is a lot there if we invest in the infrastructure to drive out and get it?
**Robert Friedland**：我必须让你明白，如果我们要实现全球经济的绿色转型，我们在金属需求方面目前仅仅处于低矮的山脚丘陵，甚至还不是落基山脉，而是喜马拉雅山脚下的低矮丘陵。彭博机构在应对全球生态问题方面做了大量非常出色的工作，然而我们现在正面临着在乌克兰、中东、伊朗和霍尔木兹海峡爆发的初期且呈蔓延态势的战争。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: So I need you to understand that we are in the low foothills, not the Rocky Mountains, we're in the low foothills of the Himalayas in the metal demand we face if we want to green the world economy because the Bloomberg organization has a lot of good work done on global ecological issues and yet we face the incipient and viral war that has broken out in Ukraine, in the Middle East, Iran, Hormuz.
**Robert Friedland**：我们已经巴尔干化分裂成了两大巨型对立阵营。一边是俄罗斯、中国、朝鲜和伊朗，他们正在紧密合作。顺便提一句，伊朗现在已经拥有了我们尚未掌握的高超音速导弹，这些导弹具有可控变轨能力，伊朗竟然能凭借技术如此精准地引导导弹进行打击，令人难以置信，而这些技术必然来自俄罗斯或中国。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And we have balkanized ourselves into two giant opposing groups. We have Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran closely cooperating. Iran now has hypersonic missiles, which by the way we don't have yet, that are steerable, that are incredibly amazing that Iran can target missiles so precisely with technology that must have come from Russia or China.
**Robert Friedland**：我们面临着相反的对抗压力。看看我们的总统，他对乌克兰的泽连斯基先生说：“如果你给我关键原材料，我就给你提供援助。”这已经变得非常具有重商主义色彩。你以前从未见过一位美国总统公开表态说“只有在拥有关键原材料的前提下，我才会帮助你”。如果你能给我五分钟，我想结合第二次世界大战与当前局势跟你深入聊聊。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And we have a countervailing pressure. If you look at our president, he told Mr. Zelensky in Ukraine, I will help you if you give me critical raw materials. It's become very mercantile. You never saw an American president say, I will help you only if we have critical raw materials. If you'll give me five minutes, I want to talk to you about World War II and the current situation.
**Host**：特蕾西（Tracy Alloway）和我都是非常痴迷二战史的中年中年奶爸，哈哈。
Original English **Host**: Tracy and I are both middle-aged dads who love World War II.
**Robert Friedland**：你们大多数听众可能太年轻了，所以我真的需要用打比方的方式向你们解释清楚。日本人当年出于某种原因认为轰炸珍珠港是个好主意，他们脑子里有了这个念头并付诸了行动。而当时身为民主党人的富兰克林·D·罗斯福担任美国总统，他是一个孤立主义者，并不想卷入第二次世界大战。但英国先后有张伯伦和丘吉尔，丘吉尔对纳粹的威胁极度警惕，他来到富兰克林·D·罗斯福面前请求援助。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Most of your listeners are too young. So I really need to explain this to you by analogy. The Japanese thought it was a good idea for some reason to bomb Pearl Harbor. They had an idea in their mind and they did it. And Franklin D. Roosevelt, who was a Democrat, was president of the United States and he was an isolationist. He did not want to get involved in World War II. But in England, you had Chamberlain and you had Churchill. And Churchill was obsessed with the Nazis and he came to Franklin D. Roosevelt begging for help.
**Robert Friedland**：最终在 1940 至 1941 年间，丘吉尔无奈收到了罗斯福的消息：“我会把你们作战所需物资借给你们、租给你们。我不会免费给你们任何东西，但我可以借给你们煤炭，借给你们石油，借给你们铜，借给你们锡。我将用我们的商船和美国小伙子把它们运送过去，日后你们必须连本带利还给我。”因为罗斯福是个孤立主义者，他最初并不想直接参战。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And ultimately in 1940-41, Churchill grudgingly got a message from Roosevelt: I will lend you and I will lease you what you need for the war effort. I won't give you anything for free, but I'll lend you coal. I'll lend you oil. I'll lend you copper. I'll lend you tin. I'll send it over on my merchant shipping with American boys, and later on you pay me back with interest, because he was an isolationist. He didn't want to get in the war.
**Robert Friedland**：德国人发明了令人难以置信的小型 U 型潜艇（细长如针的潜艇），他们开始击沉我们的商船，切断了二战期间美英之间的供应链。所幸英国的一群数学家破译了“恩尼格玛”（Enigma）密码，如果这没有发生，今天英国的所有人恐怕都得说德语了。那是一场悬于一线、拼杀极为惨烈的战争。德国人当时还在研制重水反应堆和核武器。最终，我们在广岛投下了一颗原子弹，那是一颗铀弹；随后投下的第二颗是钚弹，那简直就像是一场科学实验。杜鲁门总统授权投掷了第二颗原子弹，美国最终屹立于世界之巅。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: The Germans invented these incredible little U-boat or little needle submarines, and they started sinking our merchant shipping, interrupting the supply chain between the United States and Great Britain during the war. Fortunately, a group of mathematicians in England broke the Enigma code. And had that not happened, everybody in England today would be speaking German. It was a very closely fought thing. The Germans were working on heavy water reactors and nuclear weapons. Ultimately, we dropped an atomic bomb on Hiroshima. It was a uranium bomb. And then our second bomb we dropped was a plutonium bomb. It was a science experiment. Truman authorized a second bomb to be dropped, and America came out on top of the world.
**Robert Friedland**：而到了今天，供应链再次被切断，但二战中我们所依赖的那些大宗商品现在已经不够用了。没有镓，就没有英伟达，就制造不出英伟达的芯片；没有钪、铼、镝、铌、钽——这些甚至不为人所熟知的特种金属，我们连这个演播室都建不起来，我们发展人工智能的速度就赶不上中国。而我们的超大规模云计算厂商（Hyperscalers）正在不断背负巨额债务，借钱去浇筑混凝土和钢筋。他们的头脑虽高耸入云，但双脚却深深扎在……
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Now today the supply chain is being interrupted, and none of those commodities that we need in World War II are relevant. Without gallium, there is no Nvidia, no Nvidia chips. Without scandium, rhenium, dysprosium, niobium, tantalum—these are metals you don't even know about. We can't build this studio. We can't develop AI as fast as the Chinese. And our hyperscalers are getting in debt. They're borrowing money to pour concrete and steel. Their heads are in the clouds, but their feet are of...
### 电力短缺、数据中心反弹与中美能源现实 **Robert Friedland**：它们不是凭空捏造的，它们就坐落在地球之上。而我们国家目前面临着运行这些数据中心的电力容量短缺问题。事实上，美国国内正掀起一场针对数据中心的反弹浪潮，因为选民们亲眼目睹了电价的上涨。所以这里正在发生一件非常奇怪、不可思议的事情：中国拥有超过其社会运行所需两倍以上的电能，而我们却没有。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: ...clay. They're sitting on the earth. And there's a shortage of electrical capacity in our country to run these data centers. In fact, there's a backlash against data centers in the US because voters are seeing the price of electricity go up. And so this is a very strange, weird thing unfolding here that China has more than twice the electrical energy it needs to run its society, and we don't.
**Robert Friedland**：你知道，纽约这里曾经发生过大停电，我想是在20世纪70年代或80年代。我们在纽约这里的电力来自魁北克的水电，来自那些你今天绝对不可能再获准建造的水电大坝。换作今天，一群嬉皮士会直接躺在推土机前，阻止那些湖泊被开发。不过，你知道，当年纽约停电的时候，促成了很多婴儿的诞生。9个月后迎来了一波婴儿潮，因为当时无事可做，外面漆黑一片，人们都呆在家里，担心外面会发生抢劫。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: You know, there was a power failure here in New York. I think it was in the 1970s or 1980s. Our power here in New York comes from hydro power in Quebec. It comes down from hydroelectric dams that you could never build today. A bunch of hippies would lay in front of the bulldozers to prevent those lakes from being developed. But, you know, when the power went out here in New York, a lot of babies got made. 9 months later, there was a big bump of babies cuz there was nothing else to do. It was dark out and people stayed at home. You know, they were worried about looting.
### AI 发展背后的关键金属瓶颈与中美博弈 **Robert Friedland**：但是如今，如果你想要埃隆·马斯克正在做的一切，如果你想要 Grok、想要人工智能、想要人形机器人、想要电动汽车、想要微波炉和洗衣机、想要净化环境，并且想要防御冲你而来的无人机，你就需要超尖端的关键金属。不幸的是，所有这些关键金属都是由中国开发的，在美国根本找不到。中国人非常理性，以一种极其聪明的方式表态：“除非我们达成一致，否则我们不会把这些金属卖给你们。”事实上，如果你是一家美国制造商，你现在必须把计划提交给中国军事委员会，说明“为什么我需要这种金属”，然后他们会进行研究。他们审阅你的蓝图，并且可以出于任何理由、或者根本无需任何理由，拒绝供应这些金属。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: But today if you want everything Elon's doing, if you want Grok, if you want AI, you want humanoid robots, you want electric cars, you want microwave ovens and washing machines, you want to clean the environment, and you want to defend yourself against drones coming to get you, you need ultra sophisticated critical metals. And unfortunately, all of them are developed by China. They're not found here in the United States. And the Chinese are very rationalized and in an intelligent way are saying, "We're not going to sell them to you unless we agree." In fact, if you're a US manufacturer, you now have to give your plans to the China Military Commission and say why I want one of these metals. And then they study it. They look at your blueprints and they can refuse the supply of those metals for any reason or no reason.
**Robert Friedland**：现在，我们作为一个社会在芯片领域处于领先地位，而他们在关键原材料方面处于领先地位，也许当斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）进行谈判时，双方会达成某种重大的交易。事实上，中国领导人定于9月24日访问美国，事情可能会朝两个方向发展：我们可以在一个公平的竞争环境中按照规则与对方博弈，就像打橄榄球一样，我撞断你的锁骨，你撞断我的锁骨，但我们并不置对方于死地；或者，局面可能会彻底失控。因为中国的人工智能正在迎头赶上，其水平与我们不相上下，达到了我们99%的水平，而且他们正走向开源，打算免费提供给美国企业使用。与此相对，超大规模云服务商正把整副身家押注在极其庞大的资本投资上，但他们却在美国找不到足够的电力以及开发这些技术所需的关键原材料。这就是为什么我最近告诉彭博社，作为一名矿业从业者，硅谷的一些非常规利益方正在主动接触我，我们也在与大型超大规模云服务商沟通，他们都在惊呼：“天呐，我们遇到大麻烦了。”
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Now we're ahead as a society on chips and they're ahead on critical raw materials, and maybe there's some big trade to be made here when Scott Bessent negotiates. And in fact President Xi is due in the United States September 24th, and this could go two ways: we could play the game with each other on a level playing field with a game of rules like rugby, where I break your collarbone and you break mine, but we don't kill each other; or this could spin out of control because Chinese AI is coming, it's as good as ours. It's 99% as good as ours and they're going open source. They're going to give it to American enterprise for free. While the hyperscalers are betting the farm on astronomically large capital investments, but they can't find the electricity in the United States and the critical raw materials to develop these things. And that's why I told Bloomberg recently as a miner. I'm being approached by unconventional interest out of Silicon Valley, and we're talking to the big hyperscalers who are saying, "My god, we got a problem."
### 数据中心的基荷电力困局与材料依赖 **Interviewer**：他们到底想在这里做什么？他们是在讨论进行股权投资，还是打算拥有某种设施？
Original English **Interviewer**: What exactly do they want to do here? Are they talking about like investing equity or owning some sort of facility?
**Robert Friedland**：嗯，你知道，科技行业里没有人愿意把手弄脏去干采矿，因为尾矿坝可能会坍塌，采矿可能会引发环境问题。我们总喜欢认为科技存在于一个平行宇宙中，我们在那里永远不会弄脏双手。然而，正是科技在消耗所有这些产生温室气体的电力。换句话说，如果微软的所有电力都能依靠核电站运行，那当然很理想。事实上，他们确实去争取重启三里岛核电站，来为这些数据中心提供电力。但实际上目前他们正在转向天然气。你知道，天然气其实并不那么绿色环保。而且现在要买一台用于天然气发电厂的燃气轮机，需要排队等待长达7年之久。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Well, you know, nobody that's in technology wants to get their hands dirty mining because, you know, a tailings dam can collapse. There could be an environmental issue in mining. And we like to think that technology exists in a parallel universe where we never get our hands dirty. But it's the technology that's drawing all this electricity that is generating global warming gas. In other words, it would be neat if Microsoft could run all of their power off of nuclear power plants. In fact, they went after Three Mile Island to reopen it to provide the electricity for these data centers. But actually, currently, they're going to natural gas. And you know, that's not really that green. And there's a seven-year wait to get a gas turbine to power a natural gas power plant.
**Robert Friedland**：再看 Bloom Energy，他们的股价之所以上涨，是因为他们拥有固体氧化物燃料电池，可以作为为数据中心发电的替代方案。数据中心需要不间断电源，它不能靠太阳能运行，因为太阳不会一直照耀；也不能靠风能运行，因为风不会一直吹拂。而要建造一个固体氧化物燃料电池，你需要金属钪，没有钪就造不出来；或者要制造一台天然气轮机，轮机核心部位需要金属铼。因此，我们确实撞上了关键材料的瓶颈，正是这些材料支撑着我们今天正在做的一切实现规模化运作。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Ergo Bloom Energy. Their stock has gone up because they have solid oxide fuel cells as an alternative to generate electrical energy for a data center. A data center needs uninterruptible power. It can't work on solar because the sun doesn't shine all the time. Can't work on wind. The wind doesn't blow all the time. And so to build a solid oxide fuel cell, you need scandium metal. Can't build it without it. Or to build a natural gas turbine, you need rhenium metal in the core of the turbine. And so we're really bumping up against critical materials to enable this kind of thing that we're doing today to exist at scale.
### 能源转型的开采规模与供应链极限 **Robert Friedland**：对我们来说，问题在于应对这个挑战的规模必须与美国经济的体量相称。如果我们是像洪都拉斯这样的小国，我们不需要太多资源；但我们是一个大国，为了保持增长并向人工智能迈进，突然之间矿业从业者变成了关键角色。我们不能再像过去那样进行开采，否则我们将摧毁这个星球。我们不能不再去开采石油、天然气和煤炭，转而为了寻找足够的铜来实现能源转型而把地球上的每一个山头都刨开。所以我们必须依赖于掌握前沿技术并掀起一场技术革命。这绝非易事，但我以及我认识的许多人都在为此全力以赴。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And the problem for us is that the response to this question has to be at the scale of the American economy. If we were a little country like Honduras, we wouldn't need very much. But we're big, and in order to keep growing and going to AI, suddenly the miners become the key. And we can't go on mining the way we used to mine or we're going to destroy this planet. We're going to, instead of mining oil and gas and coal, we're going to rip up every mountain side on the planet trying to find enough copper to have an energy transition. And so we are dependent on becoming technologically savvy and a technological revolution. It's not going to be easy, but I'm working on it and a lot of people I know.
**Interviewer**：谢谢您。简要跟进一下：您提到了目前采购天然气轮机需要漫长的等待时间。对于您订购设备来说——哪怕只是标准的常规设备，也就是那些用来从地下挖掘物料的工具——如今是否也面临着十年前购买同类设备时未曾遇到的严重供应短缺？
Original English **Interviewer**: Thank you. Just real quickly, you know, you mentioned the long wait for natural gas turbines right now. For you placing orders for equipment, just the standard run-of-the-mill equipment, things that dig stuff out of the ground. Are there like constraints these days the likes you wouldn't have faced 10 years ago to buy the same thing?
**Robert Friedland**：情况之严重已经超出了最狂野的想象。当我们当年开发矿山时——你知道，我们去了蒙古的戈壁沙漠，发现了奥尤陶勒盖（Oyu Tolgoi）铜金矿，如今它的铜产量位居世界第四左右，并且是世界第二或第三大黄金资源地。我们在戈壁沙漠中投资了大约70亿美元开始勘探并着手建设，但我们当时没有水，没有足够的水来维持矿山运转。所以我们不得不四处寻找水源；如果我们找不到水，那座矿山就会变成戈壁沙漠中心一座耗资70亿美元的现代艺术雕塑。如今，大约已有200亿美元资本投入到该矿山中。力拓集团收购了这家公司，目前该矿已投产。它是依靠一条耗资几亿美元的延长输电线从中国进口电力来运行的，中国人随时可以拔掉电源插头。但由于他们把产出的所有铜都卖回给中国经济体，因此允许该矿山运转符合中国的利益。所以你看，这就是一个去某个地方寻找极度高耗能矿产的例子。现在请重复一下你的问题。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: It's so bad that it's beyond your wildest imagination. When we built the—you know, we went up to Mongolia in the Gobi Desert and we discovered the Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine, which today is ranking about number four in the world in copper and as the world's second or third largest gold resource. And we're in the Gobi Desert and we invested about $7 billion starting to discover this thing and to start to build it, but we didn't have the water. We didn't have enough water to run the mine. So, we had to go out looking for water. And if we couldn't find the water, we would have had a $7 billion modern art sculpture out there in the middle of the Gobi Desert. Today, about 20 billion of capital has gone into that mine. Rio Tinto bought the company and it's in production and it runs on imported electricity from China on a hundred million dollar extension cord, and the Chinese can just unplug it. But they sell all of that copper into the Chinese economy. So it's in China's interest to allow that mine to operate. So you know there's an example of going somewhere to find something that's very energy intensive. Now repeat your question. [laughter]
**Interviewer**：不，我的意思只是说，如果你想买一台大铲车，像这种大型设备的积压交货周期是多久？
Original English **Interviewer**: No, I just mean you want to buy a big shovel, a big... like what's the backlog for that?
**Robert Friedland**：关于那座矿山我还想再告诉你一些情况。在我们建设一期工程时，我们拥有世界上最大的电动机。它们就像巨型洗衣机一样，里面装满岩石和钢球。你把岩石翻滚起来，岩石在这些钢球的撞击下相互剧烈碰撞，消耗巨大的电能将其研磨成滑石粉般的细粉，从而把铜分离出来。环绕在这些巨型电机周围的齿轮圈——这些电机的直径大约有40英尺——仅仅为了拿到那个齿轮圈，就需要等待4年半的时间。换句话说，你订购了电机，需要等上四年半，西门子（Siemens）或 ABB 才能把它造出来。放到今天，如果还能造出来的话，将需要等上8到10年。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: I want to tell you about that mine. So when we were building that mine, I built the phase one mine. We had the world's largest electrical motors. They're like giant washing machines. Yeah. And there's rocks and steel balls and you tumble the rocks and slowly the rocks bash against each other with these steel balls and with a huge amount of electrical energy you grind it down to talcum powder to liberate the copper. And the ring gear around those giant motors—these motors are 40 ft in diameter approximately—it was a 4 and 1/2 year wait to get the ring gear. In other words, you order the motor, four and a half years later Siemens or ABB could build it. Today, it'd be an eight or 10 year wait, if ever.
**Robert Friedland**：现在的超大规模云服务商正试图获得燃气轮机。他们愿意采用燃气轮机，因为我们在美国拥有大量天然气，即便这会为你的人工智能产生温室气体；但现在的等待期大约是六、七或八年。如今，当你仔细阅读那些供货合同中的细则时，他们会写道：“合同中包含不可抗力条款。如果我们无法获取某种金属材料，我们就无法如期交付。”现在我再给你举个例子：我们在刚果（金）的一处铜矿曾遇到过一个临时问题。由于发生地震事件导致矿井被淹，我们需要把水抽出来。你知道，那座矿井的深度大约相当于埃菲尔铁塔的高度，或者还要再深上两倍……
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And the hyperscalers are trying to get a gas turbine today. They're willing because we have a lot of natural gas in the United States, and you're generating global warming gas for your AI, but it's about a six or seven or eight year wait. And today, when you read the fine print in those supply contracts, they say, "Well, there's a force majeure clause. If we can't get one of the metals, we just won't deliver it." Now, I'll give you an example. We had a temporary problem at one of our copper mines in the Congo. We had a flood due to a seismic event and we needed to pump the water out of the mine. And you know, the mine's about the depth of the height of the Eiffel Tower or a little maybe two...
### 关键设备供应链卡点与深层地缘博弈 **Robert Friedland**: 当时矿井有三个埃菲尔铁塔那么深。我们所需要的特种泵，抽水量必须达到每秒1,300升，扬程相当于埃菲尔铁塔高度的三倍。这些是非常精密复杂的特种泵。我们打电话给美国厂商，他们说：“抱歉，我们造不出来。”我们又打电话给德国厂商，他们也表示“无能为力”。我们给全球各地的供应商都打了电话，并问他们：“为什么造不出来？”他们说：“我们拿不到制造电动机所需的钐钴永磁体（samarium cobalt magnets），因为这些泵体型庞大得像火箭一样，直径将近3米，长度有80到90英尺。”我们要把它们一路下放到竖井深处。全世界只有中国企业能制造这些特种水泵。幸运的是，中国当时正在采购我们的铜矿，所以他们在30天内就制造出了水泵，我们成功把矿井里的积水抽干了。当矿井被淹时，我们每天损失约1,500万美元的营收。所以这根本不是钱的问题，而是究竟谁能把这种泵卖给我们的问题。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Eiffel Towers deep. And the pumps we needed pump 1,300 liters per second, three times the height of the Eiffel Tower. So these are very sophisticated pumps. And we called the Americans, they said, "Sorry, we can't build them." We called the Germans, "No deal." We called all over the planet. We said, "Why not?" And they said, "We can't get the samarium cobalt magnets for the electric motors because these pumps are like a rocket ship. They're almost 3 meters in diameter. They're 80, 90 feet long. We lowered them down the shafts. Only the Chinese could build those pumps. Fortunately, the Chinese were buying our copper and so they built the pumps in 30 days and we got the mine pumped out. When we were flooded, we're losing about $15 million a day in revenue. So, it wasn't a money question. It was just who's going to sell us a pump?
**Speaker A**: 确实如此。
Original English **Speaker A**: Yeah.
**Robert Friedland**: 鲍勃·迪伦（Bob Dylan）有一首很棒的歌。你们俩都太年轻了可能不记得，那是第一首真正的说唱歌曲，名字叫《地下思乡蓝调》（Subterranean Homesick Blues）。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: So, you know, there's a great song by Bob Dylan. You know, you're both too young to remember it. It was the first real rap song. It was called Subterranean Homesick Blues.
**Speaker A**: 噢，是的。
Original English **Speaker A**: Oh, yeah.
**Robert Friedland**: 你们真应该听听看，因为那是早期的说唱。罗伯特·齐默曼（Robert Zimmerman，即鲍勃·迪伦）在那首歌里有两句非常经典的歌词。一句是：“你不需要天气预报员，也知道风往哪个方向吹。”（You don't need a weatherman to know the way the wind is blowing.）而整首歌的最后一句则是：“水泵无法运转，因为破坏者把把手拆走了。”（The pump won't work because the vandals took the handle.）现在正在发生的事情正是如此：人们意识到，只要切断某些关键原材料的供应，就足以让整个经济陷入停摆。就像跑道上的波音747客机，它拥有400万个零部件，但只要缺少哪怕其中一个零件，它就无法起飞。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And you should play it because it's early rap, but there's two great lines in that song from Robert Zimmerman aka Bob Dylan. One was, "You don't need a weatherman to know the way the wind is blowing." And the final line in the song, it ends with, "The pump won't work because the vandals took the handle." And what's happening now is that it's recognized that by withdrawing certain critical raw materials, you can bring our economy to a halt. If you look at a Boeing 747 on the runway, it's got four million parts, but if one part is missing, it doesn't take off.
**Speaker A**: 是的。
Original English **Speaker A**: Yeah.
### 中美关键供应链的相互掣肘与大国博弈 **Robert Friedland**: 随着我们的工业系统变得越来越复杂，彼此之间都掌握了制衡甚至威胁对方的筹码。我给你们举个例子：我之前跟我们的财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）交谈，他是一个非常了不起的人。我向他询问我们与中方的谈判情况。他说他坐下来与中方代表会谈时，中方表示：“你们这帮家伙没有按照承诺为我们的波音客机交付通用电气（GE）发动机。”贝森特则回答说：“可你们也没有给我们制造这些发动机所需的关键金属。”所以双方开始把枪口对准彼此的太阳穴，一场巨大的博弈棋局正在展开。过去这种地缘博弈主要围绕原油展开，而现在它正转向一系列关键金属——这正是你们在Odd Lots节目中讨论得还不够多的话题。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: And so as our systems get more complex, we're in a position to blackmail each other. And right now we could tell... I'll give you an example. I was talking to our Treasury Secretary. He's an amazing person, Scott Bessent. And I was asking about our discussion with the Chinese and he said, "I sat down with the Chinese and they said, 'You bastards haven't delivered the General Electric engines for our Boeing airplanes you promised us.'" And he said, "Well, you haven't given us the critical metals we need to build those engines." And so we're starting to point a gun at each other's temple and there's this giant chess game going on. And we used to get this over crude oil, and now it's moving towards a suite of critical metals that you don't talk about enough on Odd Lots.
**Speaker A**: 哈哈，我们现在这不就在讨论并弥补这一点嘛。
Original English **Speaker A**: Well, we're fixing that now. We're taking that.
### 矿业估值模型的缺陷与全球资源转移 **Speaker B**: 与此相关的一个问题是，今天早上铜价出现下跌——我们录制节目的时间是9月10日——路透社有一篇报道称，白宫尚未就精炼铜关税做出最终决定。如果美国的开采瓶颈本质上是地质条件、法律和官僚审批等问题，那么关税真的有助于提高美国的本土产量吗？
Original English **Speaker B**: So, related to this, one of the reasons that copper is falling this morning—and we're recording this on September 10th—but there's a report out saying that the White House hasn't made a decision yet on refined copper tariffs. Do tariffs help boost production in the US if the constraint is, you know, geological and legal and bureaucracy?
**Robert Friedland**: 路透社的厄尼（Ernie）昨天确实打电话给我了，我告诉他我不想对此发表评论。因为为了这些政策事务，我在拜登政府和特朗普政府之间来回奔走，鞋底都快磨破了。不过我可以向你们剖析这一主张的正反两面逻辑，而不透露我个人的立场。[笑声]
Original English **Robert Friedland**: So Ernie called me from Reuters yesterday and I told him I didn't want to comment on it because I've been wearing out my shoe leather going into the Biden administration and Trump administration, but I could argue both sides of the proposition for you without telling you where I stand personally. [laughter]
**Speaker B**: 高明。
Original English **Speaker B**: Smart.
**Speaker A**: 在过去，关税是政府获取财政收入的主要途径，对吧？
Original English **Speaker A**: You know, in the old days, tariffs was the principal way that governments collected revenue, right?
**Robert Friedland**: 在大英帝国“日不落”的航海时代，英国王室甚至授权私掠行为。作为私掠船长，只要把战利品的12.5%上缴给王室即可，否则就得征收关税。我们直到1930年代左右才发明了个人所得税。现在的问题在于，如果我去刚果，那里的铜矿品位高达3%、4%、5%甚至6%，矿藏极其丰富。而且刚果拥有1亿人口，你们知道刚果人口的年龄中位数是多少吗？只有18.7岁。这是一个极其年轻的Z世代群体，他们对内战的历史没有记忆，他们渴望工作。在刚果，我只需要每月支付800到1,000美元，就能招到一名懂AI或能操作自动化设备的优秀刚果本土软件工程师。而如果我想在美国开采铜矿，美国钢铁工人联合会（United Steelworkers of America）要求每小时100美元以上才肯下井。再加上环保法规和各种法律限制，使得在美国采矿的成本高昂得多。但这是一个思维范式的问题。如果你想在美国建造核电站，或者在美国本土设立数据中心，都需要投入巨额资金。因此，全球采矿业自然倾向于流向那些资源品位更高或成本更低的地区。 但随后发生的情况是，金融系统发明了净现值（NPV）模型。这种模型最初是为石油和天然气行业量身定制的，后来矿业公司也开始采纳NPV模型，所有矿业公司都开始按照NPV来进行估值。这是一个极其愚蠢的做法，因为矿山根本无法套用NPV模型。油田可以，但矿山不行。油田如果你不持续投入资金，产量会衰减得非常快，储层的能量很快就会耗尽；但一座拥有100年储量寿命的矿山，其衰减模式完全不同于油田。因此，NPV模型严重压低了矿业公司的估值。事实上，今天整个矿业公司板块的总市值加起来还不到标普500指数总市值的1%，处于矿业历史上的绝对估值低点。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: In the British Empire, when the sun never set on the British Empire and we had ships, the British crown authorized piracy. You know, you're a privateer. You go out and kill somebody and as long as 12.5% went to the crown, or they had tariffs. And we didn't invent income taxes until the 1930s or so. And the problem is that if I go to the Congo, the grade of the copper there is three, four, five, 6%. It's unbelievably rich, and there's 100 million people in the Congo. The median age, do you know what the median age of a person is in the Congo? 18.7. So, it's a very young population, Generation Z, and they don't remember the days of the Civil War. They want to work. And I can get a brilliant software engineer that's Congolese, who knows AI, or who can run automated equipment for $800 or 1,000 bucks a month. If I want to mine copper in the United States, the United Steel Workers of America want over $100 an hour to go underground. And we have environmental legislation and legal constraints that make it much more expensive to mine in the United States. But this is a paradigm. If you want to build a nuclear power plant in the United States or you want to put it in a data center in the United States, it takes big, big money. And so mining tended to go around the world where the resources are higher grade or lower cost. But what happened was the financial system invented the net present value model. It was originally made for oil and gas. The mining companies started NPV models. All the mining companies were valued on NPV. And it's a stupid idea because mines cannot be modeled to NPV. Oil fields can, but not mines. Oil fields decline very fast if you don't put money into them. They just the energy in the reservoir depletes. But a mine with 100 years of reserves doesn't deplete like an oil field. So the NPV model suppressed the valuation of mining companies. In fact, today mining companies in the aggregate only have the value of less than 1% of the S&P 500, which is an all-time low for mining.
### 战略眼光差异、纸面财富与长远资源安全 **Robert Friedland**: 中国看清了这一点，他们心想：“天哪，我们有13亿人口要世世代代养活，而这些愚蠢的美国人居然愿意把这些底盘资产全部卖掉。”于是他们果断入场，极其明智地把整条供应链买了个遍，把所有没被牢牢固定在地上的核心资产全部收入囊中。问题在于，中国为本国人民做了一件非常富有远见且明智的事，而如今我们却不再拥有这些核心资产，因为我们所有的资金都流向了奈飞（Netflix）或者科技概念股[笑声]。必须有人站出来说出这一切的真相，因为我们在战略上基本上处于毫无防备的被动状态。 我可以跟你们聊聊我和美国那些亿万富翁们的对话吗？每当彭博社报道我时，总会冠以“亿万富翁罗伯特·弗里德兰”的头衔，我都对这个词感到厌烦了。我先后与50位男女亿万富翁聊过，我问他们：“你们平时穿裤子也是坐下来一条腿一条腿地穿，还是把裤子提在面前，双腿同时跳进去？”我至今还没遇到过任何一个声称自己能双腿同时跳进裤子里的亿万富翁。所以整个财富光环都被严重高估了，那不过是账面上的纸面数字而已。我真正担忧的是我的孙辈，我担忧的是未来的可持续性：我们如何在不爆发战争的前提下，为全球80亿居民提供充足的食物、清洁的水和空气？在上个世纪，大部分战争都是为了争夺原油而爆发的；而如今，我们可能会因为人工智能以及支撑AI运转的关键原材料而走向冲突对抗。 这就是为什么我认为这个话题应该做成一个系列专题，就像《绝命毒师》（Breaking Bad）那样层层推进，而不是一次性的单集节目，我们需要像剥洋葱一样抽丝剥茧，深入触及这个问题的核心本质。我知道你们的很多嘉宾也开始探讨这个方向，但这个议题在未来10年或20年内绝不会消失，它将是一个长期的永恒主题。 举个例子，我还记得1987年的股灾，当时的利率高达12%，股市崩盘后沃尔克（Paul Volcker）降息，随后债券市场开启了长达35年的牛市。而眼下的原材料危机绝对不是一个短暂的短期现象。路透社今天发表的那篇让铜市场产生恐慌波动的文章谈到了关税问题。你们问我对关税怎么看：如果你想在美国本土进行开采，如果你追求关键资源的自给自足，那么加征关税确实是一个好主意。因为如果铜价是每磅6美元，你加征30%的关税，30%就是1.80美元，铜价就会变成7.80美元。这样一来，我就能够承担得起雇佣美国钢铁工人联合会工人的高昂薪酬，并在美国本土开采矿产，这会让本土采矿在经济上变得可行。然而，硬币的另一面是，这将在国内引发通货膨胀，利率也会随之受到冲击……
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Now, the Chinese saw this and they said, "My god, we got 1.3 billion people to feed forever. These stupid Americans are willing to sell all this." And they just came in over the top and they intelligently just bought the entire supply chain. They bought everything that wasn't bolted down. And so the problem is that the Chinese did something very intelligent for the Chinese people and today we don't own these assets anymore because all of our money went into Netflix or mic... [laughter] You know, and this really has to be... somebody has to tell the truth about all this because basically we got caught with our pants down. Now can I tell you about my interviews with American billionaires? So, every time Bloomberg writes about me, they say billionaire Robert Friedland. I kind of get tired of that phrase. I've now interviewed 50 male and female billionaires and I've asked them, "Do you kind of sit down and put your pants on one leg at a time or do you hold your pants up in front of you and jump in with both legs simultaneously?" And I haven't found one billionaire who claims that he or she jumps into their pants both legs at a time. And so this whole thing is overrated. It's just paper money. What I'm worried about is my grandkids. I'm worried about the sustainability. How do we provide food and water and clean air to 8 billion inhabitants without warring groups? We used to fight over crude oil. Most of the wars the last century was over crude oil. And now we might start fighting related to AI and the critical raw materials to support that AI. And that's why I think this should be a series. This should be like Breaking Bad, not a one-off movie where we peel this onion and go deeper into the core of this issue. And I know a lot of your guests have been starting to talk about this, but this is a subject that is not going to go away for the next 10 or 20 years. This is like a permanent subject. For example, I remember the 1987 crash. Rates were 12%. And the stock market crashed and Volcker cut rates and the bond market went up for 35 years. Right now, this is not an ephemeral short-term thing. That article that came out on Reuters today that spooked the copper market a little bit is talking about tariffs. You ask me what I think about tariffs. Well, if you want to mine in the United States, if you want to be self-sufficient, tariffs are a great idea because if copper's six bucks and you put on a 30% tariff, 30% of six bucks is $1.80. You'd have $7.80 copper. I could afford to hire a mine worker at the United Steel Workers of America and mine in the United States. It would make it more viable to do that here. However, the other side of the equation is it'll create domestic inflation. Rates will otherwise...
### 美国再工业化、主权与大宗商品囤积时代 **Robert Friedland**: 物价会上涨。我们即将迎来中期选举。因此，这是一个政治议题。你究竟是想要让美国重新工业化，还是不想要让美国重新工业化？如果你造不出核电站，如果你造不出一艘船，你就会丧失国家主权。去年，美国大约只建造了8艘船，而中国建造了1000艘。所以这是一个非常重大的问题。 你真的希望彻底替代原油体系，换成由清洁能源驱动的庞大数据中心吗，还是不想？我想告诉你，造物主赐予了这个国家各种各样的丰厚资源。我们拥有丰富的水资源，拥有金黄的麦浪。全世界开采的铜有10%曾出自伟大的亚利桑那州。加利福尼亚州以前的汽车车牌上写着“金州”（Golden State），因为我们在加州发现了黄金；而亚利桑那州的车牌上写着“铜州”（Copper State），人们曾以此为荣。听听布鲁斯·斯普林斯汀（Bruce Springsteen）的歌吧，我的意思是，我们这个国家过去是有实业制造能力的，我们曾拥有高炉和钢铁厂。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: ...go up. We have the midterm elections coming. So, there's a political issue. Do you want to reindustrialize America? Or do you not want to re-industrialize America? If you can't build a nuclear power plant, if you can't build a ship, you lose your sovereignty. Last year, America built about eight ships and China built a thousand. And so this is a very big question. Uh and um do you really want to replace the entire system of crude oil and replace it with huge data centers run by clean energy or don't you? And and you know I want to tell you this country is well endowed by the creator in all manner of good things. We have water, we have amber waves of grain. Uh 10% of the copper mined in the world came from the great state of Arizona. Uh the California license plate used to say the golden state because we discovered gold in California and the Arizona license plate said the copper state and people were proud of it you know and you know listen to Bruce Springsteen. I mean, we used to do stuff in this country, you know, we used to have blast furnaces and steel mills.
**Robert Friedland**: 我们失去了这一切，因为我们以为可以把所有这些工业制造都外包给中国。沃尔玛里的每件东西上面都写着“中国制造”，不论是微波炉还是洗衣机。这就是当下大辩论的一部分：如果你想让美国重新工业化，那就让我们用一种更好的方式去做，让我们尝试找寻一种更可持续的方式去实现。但如果我们不做，我们就失去了主权。 我认为欧洲正在意识到这一点，全球也都在意识到这一点。正因如此，我们正在迈入“囤积时代”（the age of hoarding）。现在正在发生的情况是，各国政府正在买入金属铜作为货币的替代资产，而且他们并不公开对外报告。没有人能够计算出任何这些金属真实的供需平衡，因为为什么要公开呢？正如我们看到的统计数据，中国突然在大量买入黄金，他们不再购买我们的美债，而是在抛售我们的美债。有些人认为比特币是美元的一种替代资产。一场巨大的货币贬值交易（debasement trade）已经拉开序幕。对冲基金借入日元，寄希望于日元走软且无需偿还资金。但我们现在正处于一个拐点，这一切都在被揭露，所有事情都赤裸地暴露在全球审视之下。我们看到需求已经迎头撞上了供给瓶颈，我们正在形成一种更为成熟深刻的认知：你发展人工智能究竟是为了什么好处？你是想让我们所有的孩子在 TikTok 或 Facebook 上被洗脑吗？你真的想要这样影响我们的孩子吗？由于社交媒体的运作方式，我们在美国这里正在分裂成两个相互敌对的部落，而这一切全是由人工智能驱动的。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: Uh, and we lost all that because we thought we could outsource all this to China. And everything at Walmart said made in China, whether it's a microwave oven or a washing machine. And this is part of the big debate is if you want to re-industrialize America, let's do it in a better way. Let's try to figure out a more sustainable way to do it. But if we don't do it, we have lost our sovereignty. And I think that you're discovering this in Europe uh and this is being discovered globally. And that's why we're beginning uh the age of hoarding. What's happening is that governments are buying copper metal as a proxy on money and they're not reporting it. And nobody can calculate the supply-demand balance on any of these metals because why would you? Like we're seeing the statistics that China's buying gold all of a sudden and they're not buying our treasuries, they're selling our treasuries. And some people think Bitcoin is an alternative asset uh for the United States dollar. There's a great uh debasement trade starting. Uh hedge funds borrow the yen and rely on the yen weakening and not to have to pay the money back. But we're at an inflection point now where this is all being exposed and everything is becoming naked and available to global scrutiny and we're seeing that demand has come against push and we're getting into a more sophisticated understanding that do you want AI to what good? Uh do you want to make all of our kids get brainwashed on TikTok or Facebook? Do you really want to get our kids? We're turning into two rival tribes here in the United States with the way social media is working and it's all driven by AI.
**Joe Weisenthal**: 而且人工智能会让这种情况变得更加危险。你知道，我有一个孙子。当我把我孙子的 iPad 拿走时，他整个人就彻底抓狂了，对吧？所以，是的，我是个婴儿潮一代，我承认这一点。 好吧，罗伯特，非常期待明天请你回来进行这次讨论的第二部分，然后在后天进行第三部分。非常感谢你来参加 Odd Lots 节目。这期对话太棒了，我们很快应该再聊聊。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: >> and AI can make it even more dangerous. You know, I've got a grandson. You you when I took my grandson's iPad away, he just freaked out, right? You know, so uh yeah, I'm a baby boomer. You know, I admit it. You know, I admit it. Um well, Robert, really looking forward to having you back tomorrow for part two and then the next day for part three of this discussion. But no, really appreciate you coming on Odd Lots. That was fantastic. We should uh talk again soon.
**Robert Friedland**: 好的，未完待续。
Original English **Robert Friedland**: >> Yeah, you know, to be continued. [music]
### 供应链瓶颈与超级周期供给困境 **Tracy Alloway**: 我没想到在这次对话中会聊到性爱机器人，但当我们思考未来铜的需求来源时……
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: >> I wasn't expecting to talk about sex robots in this conversation, but when we're thinking about future sources of demand for copper...
**Joe Weisenthal**: 以及能源需求。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: >> for energy,
**Tracy Alloway**: 我想那确实算是一个需求来源。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: >> I suppose that's one.
**Joe Weisenthal**: 是的。你必须得把它造出来，必须插上电源充电，而且必须一直给它通着电。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: >> Yeah. Got to plug in your... You got to build it and you got to plug it in and you have to keep it plugged in. Yeah.
**Tracy Alloway**: 就婴儿潮一代的对话而言，这真是挺有趣的一期。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: >> Well, as far as baby boomer conversations go, that was...
**Joe Weisenthal**: 确实很有趣。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: >> a fun one.
**Tracy Alloway**: 确实如此。在对话中我并没有听到很多针对问题的解决方案，我想这也是为什么我们要深入探讨这个话题的原因。目前并没有显而易见的解决方案，但我认为在谈论解决方案之前，你必须先认清问题所在。我认为我们面临的问题之一，是在整条产业链的每一个环节都存在制约瓶颈，对吧？ 比方说，你决定在某处对一座新铜矿进行大规模投资，然而要买到设备、买到施工所需的推土设备或重型发动机，往往需要等待好几年。然后设备制造商会说：“好吧，我们想造更多的发动机，因为现在有很多人想要建设更多矿山。”可紧接着他们又会发现：“那我们恐怕需要更多的镓，或者其他关键资源。”因此，人们轻巧地说“只要多建些矿山、多造些存储器就行了”，但实际上产业链往上游走的每一步，本身都面临着各自的产能积压与短缺瓶颈。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: >> Yeah, for sure. I didn't hear a lot of solutions to the problem which I guess is why we're talking about this at all. There aren't obvious solutions but I think before you can even talk about solutions you have to identify the problems and I think one of the problems that we face is that at every step of the chain there are constraints right so let's say you make the decision to um oh we really want to make a big investment in a new copper mine somewhere well there's a years-long wait to get the equipment to get the earth moving equipment or the engines that you need to do that and the builders someone says uh okay we want to build a lot more engines because there are people who want to build a lot more mines well I guess then we need more gallium or whatever critical resource it is and so I think one of the things that's very helpful is to say like oh just build more mines just build more memory but in each leg of the chain one level up up you know higher up river etc they have their own backlogs...
**Joe Weisenthal**: 而且目前尚不清楚市场是否真的会因为你增加产能而给予回报，因为你依然面临着大宗商品的价格波动以及超级周期的供给困境问题。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: >> and it's still not clear that the market will actually reward you for increasing production because you still have the volatility and super cycle supply problem. Yeah,
**Tracy Alloway**: 确实，看起来非常棘手。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: >> seems hard.
**Joe Weisenthal**: 我觉得他已经讲得非常充分了，我几乎没有什么需要补充的了。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: >> I think he said plenty. It's like almost I don't have anything to add to it, you know.
**Tracy Alloway**: 好的，那我们今天就先聊到这里？
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: >> Yeah. All right. Shall we leave it there?
**Joe Weisenthal**: 好的，就到这里。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: >> Let's leave it there.
### 播客结语 **Tracy Alloway**: 感谢收听本期的 Odd Lots 播客。我是 Tracy Alloway，你可以在社交媒体上关注我的账号 @tracyalloway。
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: >> This has been another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at @tracyalloway...
**Joe Weisenthal**: 我是 Joe Weisenthal，你可以关注我的账号 @TheStalwart。也欢迎关注我们的制作人团队：Kermen Rodriguez（@KermenArman）、Dashel Bennett（@Dashbot）、Kale Brooks（@KaleBrooks）以及 Kevin Lozano（@KevinLloydLozano）。想要获取更多 Odd Lots 的精彩内容，请访问 bloomberg.com/oddlots。我们提供每日简报以及所有的往期节目。你还可以随时加入我们的 Discord 社区（discord.gg/oddlots），全天候参与所有这些话题的讨论。
Original English **Joe Weisenthal**: >> and I'm Joe Weisenthal. You can follow me at @TheStalwart. Follow our producers Kermen Rodriguez at @KermenArman, Dashel Bennett at @Dashbot, Kale Brooks at @KaleBrooks and Kevin Lozano at @KevinLloydLozano. And for more Odd Lots content, go to bloomberg.com/oddlots. We have a daily newsletter and all of our episodes. And you can chat about all these topics 24/7 in our Discord, discord.gg/oddlots. [music]
**Tracy Alloway**: 如果你喜欢 Odd Lots，喜欢我们探讨采矿业相关的内容，请在您常用的播客平台上给我们留下好评。另外请记住，如果您是彭博（Bloomberg）订阅用户，您可以在 Apple Podcasts 上搜索 Bloomberg 频道并按照指引操作，无广告畅听我们所有的节目。感谢您的收听！
Original English **Tracy Alloway**: >> And if you enjoy Odd Lots, if you like it when we talk about mining, then please leave us a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. And remember, if you are a Bloomberg subscriber, you can listen to all of our episodes absolutely ad-free. All you need to do is find the Bloomberg channel on Apple Podcasts and follow the instructions there. Thanks for listening. [music]