Introduction / 引言

Welcome. This past week of June 14, 2025, has been action-packed in the markets, a trend that has become typical in the Trump era and appears set to continue for the foreseeable future. This report will examine three key topics: first, the latest inflation and employment data, which increasingly suggest the Federal Reserve is behind the curve on cutting interest rates. Second, we must address the conflict in the Middle East, specifically how the hostilities between Israel and Iran could impact global markets. Finally, we will discuss the deteriorating outlook for the U.S. dollar and provide a brief update on the trade situation with China.

欢迎阅读本期周报。在2025年6月14日这一周，市场风云变幻，这在特朗普时代已成常态，并且看样子在可预见的未来仍将持续。本报告将探讨三个核心议题：首先，最新的通胀与就业数据显示，美联储在降息问题上似乎已经行动迟缓。其次，我们必须关注中东冲突，特别是以色列与伊朗之间的敌对行动可能对全球市场造成的影响。最后，我们将讨论美元日益黯淡的前景，并简要更新与中国的贸易局势。

本周初，特朗普总统在伦敦会谈后宣布与中国达成一项贸易协议，看似是个积极的开端。然而，深入分析细节后，现实却更为复杂。情况似乎是中国此前一直在限制对美国的稀土出口，给美国公司造成了巨大压力。在美国政府请求会晤后，这些出口才得以恢复。这一系列事件表明，在中美贸易战中，中国明显占据上风。尽管美国作为全球最大的消费国，在与墨西哥或欧盟等方的谈判中通常拥有巨大的议价能力，但其与中国的关系却截然不同。中国在全球稀土生产中的主导地位及其更高的经济承压能力，使其能够随时通过限制出口来施加压力。这表明，贸易战的局势对美国而言依然不利。

1. The Fed's Hesitation: Late to the Rate-Cutting Party / 美联储的迟疑：错失降息良机

The Federal Reserve remains preoccupied with inflation, a valid concern following the significant surge in recent years. However, major policy shifts in immigration, regulation, fiscal strategy, and trade have left the central bank in a state of paralysis, uncertain of how to react. Compounding this, survey data indicating a surge in consumer inflation expectations has heightened their caution. Consequently, the Fed has maintained its "wait-and-see" approach, signaling it will hold steady until the data shows a decisive turn. As of today, the market is pricing in only two rate cuts for this year.

美联储仍然对通胀问题高度关注，鉴于近年来的大幅飙升，这种担忧不无道理。然而，在移民、监管、财政和贸易等领域发生的重大政策变化，已使这家央行陷入一种观望状态，不确定如何应对。更令其谨慎的是，调查数据显示消费者通胀预期正在飙升。因此，美联储维持了其“等待和观望”的立场，并表示在数据出现决定性转变之前将保持利率不变。截至目前，市场仅预期今年将有两次降息。

This past week, a wealth of inflation data was released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised the market by printing much lower than expected at just 0.1% month-over-month. Broadly, headline CPI is running at about 2.5% year-over-year, while core CPI is slightly under 3%. The lower headline figure is due to deflation in energy prices. These numbers suggest inflation is only marginally above the Fed's target and may no longer be a pressing problem. The overall trend is clearly disinflationary, with even sticky components like shelter and rent gradually declining.

上周公布了大量通胀数据。消费者价格指数（CPI）远低于市场预期，月度环比仅增长0.1%，令市场颇感意外。总体来看，整体CPI年化增长率约为2.5%，而核心CPI则略低于3%。整体数据较低的原因在于能源价格的通缩。这些数字表明，通胀仅略高于美联储的目标，或许已不再是紧迫的问题。整体趋势明显是通胀减速，即便是住房和租金等粘性较强的部分也在逐步回落。

While tariffs were expected to push prices up, their impact is being overshadowed by broader economic forces. Although there is some upward pressure on goods inflation, which includes imports from China, this is being overwhelmed by significant disinflation in the services sector. As the labor market weakens, wage growth slows, putting downward pressure on service prices. This services disinflation is more than offsetting the inflation in goods. Following the CPI, the Producer Price Index (PPI) also came in lower than expected. Combined, these indicators suggest the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—will also be tame, with the Cleveland Fed's nowcast pointing to a year-over-year rate of about 2.5%.

虽然关税曾被预期会推高物价，但其影响正被更广泛的经济力量所抵消。尽管包括中国进口商品在内的货物通胀存在一定上行压力，但这股压力正被服务业显著的通胀减速所压倒。随着劳动力市场走弱，工资增长放缓，从而对服务价格构成了下行压力。服务业的通胀减速足以抵消商品通胀。继CPI之后，生产者价格指数（PPI）也低于预期。综合这些指标，美联储偏好的通胀衡量标准——个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数——预计也将保持温和，克利夫兰联储的即时预测模型显示其年化增长率约为2.5%。

Meanwhile, the employment picture is showing cracks. Although last month's job creation was solid, continuing unemployment claims are surging to multi-year highs. This steady trend indicates that individuals who have lost their jobs are struggling to find new ones, causing the pool of unemployed to grow. With both inflation and employment data pointing towards a cooling economy, the Fed's cautious stance appears increasingly out of sync. When the data does turn more decisively, we could see more aggressive rate cuts than currently anticipated. The upcoming Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot will be critical in revealing whether the Fed acknowledges this deterioration.

与此同时，就业市场也出现了裂痕。尽管上个月的就业创造数据尚可，但持续申请失业救济金的人数正飙升至多年高点。这一稳定趋势表明，失业者在寻找新工作方面正面临困难，导致失业人群规模不断扩大。在通胀和就业数据均指向经济降温的背景下，美联储的谨慎立场显得愈发不合时宜。当数据转向更为明确时，我们可能会看到比当前预期更为激进的降息。即将发布的经济预测摘要（SEP）和点阵图将是观察美联储是否承认经济状况恶化的关键。

2. Middle East Conflict: Gauging the Market Impact / 中东冲突：评估市场影响

My experience has shown that markets are often not as forward-looking as conventional wisdom suggests. Major events, from the COVID pandemic to the "liberation day" tariffs, were telegraphed well in advance, yet markets failed to react until the last moment. The current war in the Middle East is another example. The lead-up was public: presidential discussions at Camp David, a call with Prime Minister Netanyahu, the withdrawal of embassy staff from Iraq, and a press conference hinting at imminent action. These developments were unfolding in plain sight.

我的经验表明，市场往往不像传统观念所认为的那样具有前瞻性。从新冠疫情到“解放日”关税等重大事件，事前都有充分的预兆，但市场直到最后一刻才做出反应。当前的中东战争是又一个例子。事件的酝酿过程是公开的：总统在戴维营的讨论、与内塔尼亚胡总理的通话、从伊拉克撤离使馆人员，以及暗示行动在即的新闻发布会。这些事态发展就摆在眼前。

The consensus among geopolitical experts is that the attack on Iran was well-executed and has left Iran with no good options. The primary objective appears to be the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities. While the White House initially denied involvement, it's now clear they were aware, and President Trump has even seemed to claim some credit. The immediate market reaction was a sharp spike in oil prices. Interestingly, this attack, originally planned for April, coincided with OPEC's gradual increase in oil supply, suggesting a coordinated effort to manage market impact.

地缘政治专家的共识是，对伊朗的袭击执行得非常成功，使伊朗陷入了无计可施的境地。其主要目标似乎是摧毁伊朗的核设施。尽管白宫最初否认参与，但现在已经很清楚他们知情，特朗普总统甚至对此邀功。市场的直接反应是油价急剧飙升。有趣的是，这次原计划于四月发动的袭击，恰逢欧佩克组织逐步增加石油供应，这表明各方可能在协同管理市场影响。

However, many oil market analysts believe the price spike will be temporary. There is ample oil supply globally, with OPEC pumping heavily and China holding enormous reserves. The current high prices are driven by a geopolitical premium rather than a fundamental supply-demand imbalance. Concerns about Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz or attacking regional oil facilities are considered low-probability scenarios, as such actions would alienate its allies and provoke direct U.S. intervention.

然而，许多石油市场分析师认为，油价飙升将是暂时的。全球石油供应充足，欧佩克正在大量生产，中国也拥有巨大的储备。当前的高油价是由地缘政治溢价驱动的，而非根本的供需失衡。关于伊朗可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡或攻击区域石油设施的担忧，被认为是低概率事件，因为这类行动会疏远其盟友，并可能招致美国的直接干预。

The conflict is expected to continue for weeks as Israel aims to neutralize Iran's nuclear capabilities by methodically targeting its air defenses and underground facilities. This ongoing tension will weigh on markets. While geopolitical events are often seen as trading opportunities to fade, timing is crucial. Acting too early can lead to significant losses before the situation improves. This uncertainty will be a key factor for markets in the foreseeable future, especially with major events like the quarterly options expiry on the horizon.

预计这场冲突将持续数周，因为以色列的目标是通过系统性地打击其防空系统和地下设施来摧毁伊朗的核能力。这种持续的紧张局势将对市场构成压力。虽然地缘政治事件通常被视为可以“逢高卖出”的交易机会，但时机至关重要。过早行动可能会在局势好转前造成重大损失。在可预见的未来，这种不确定性将是市场的关键因素，尤其是在季度期权到期等重大事件即将到来之际。

3. The Weakening Dollar and Shifting Global Dynamics / 美元疲软与全球动态演变

Strikingly, the U.S. dollar has failed to attract a significant safe-haven bid amidst the geopolitical turmoil, a pattern also seen in the Treasury market. While softer inflation data and increased expectations for rate cuts have contributed to this weakness, the DXY chart shows a clear deteriorating trend. I believe this will be a core macro theme for the next couple of years. Understanding how a weakening dollar feeds into the financial system will be key to navigating asset prices。

引人注目的是，在地缘政治动荡中，美元未能吸引到显著的避险买盘，美国国债市场也呈现出类似模式。虽然疲软的通胀数据和对降息预期的增强是导致美元走弱的部分原因，但美元指数（DXY）图表显示出明显的恶化趋势。我相信，这将是未来几年的核心宏观主题。理解弱势美元如何影响整个金融体系，将是把握资产价格走势的关键。

A Bloomberg chart comparing sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) offers a compelling illustration. While sovereign CDS is a niche market, comparing the U.S. to other nations is revealing. Since the "liberation day" policy event, U.S. CDS spreads have risen to levels comparable with countries like Greece and Italy—nations not typically associated with a top-tier reserve currency status. This reflects a broader theme of declining confidence in U.S. governance and foreigners rebalancing away from Treasuries.

彭博社一张对比各国主权信用违约互换（CDS）的图表提供了一个有力的例证。尽管主权CDS是一个小众市场，但将美国与其他国家进行比较却能揭示很多问题。自“解放日”政策事件以来，美国的主权CDS利差已上升至与希腊、意大利等国相当的水平——这些国家通常不被视为拥有一流储备货币地位。这反映了一个更广泛的主题：外界对美国治理能力的信心下降，以及外国投资者正在减持美国国债。

This "Emerging Market-ification" of the U.S. is a trend that is likely to continue, putting pressure on U.S. assets from Treasuries to equities. In contrast, neutral assets like gold are benefiting, with recent data showing it has become the second-largest reserve asset held by central banks, surpassing even the euro. This trend underscores the strategic portfolio positioning that has favored gold, which continues to perform well.

美国的这种“新兴市场化”趋势很可能会持续下去，给从国债到股票的各类美国资产带来压力。相比之下，黄金等中立资产正从中受益。最新数据显示，黄金已超过欧元，成为各国央行持有的第二大储备资产。这一趋势凸显了青睐黄金的战略投资组合配置的正确性，黄金也持续表现良好。

Conclusion / 结语

That concludes the analysis for this week. I will return mid-next week with my thoughts following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Thank you.

本周的分析到此结束。我将在下周中旬联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议结束后，与大家分享我的看法。谢谢。

Key Terms / 关键术语

Fed (Federal Reserve): The central banking system of the United States, responsible for monetary policy and financial stability.

美联储 (Federal Reserve): 美国的中央银行系统，负责制定货币政策和维护金融稳定。

CPI (Consumer Price Index): A measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food, and medical care.

CPI (消费者价格指数): 衡量一篮子消费品和服务（如交通、食品、医疗）价格加权平均值的指标。

PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures): The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, tracking the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the U.S.

PCE (个人消费支出): 美联储偏好的通胀衡量指标，追踪美国消费者购买的商品和服务的价格。

PPI (Producer Price Index): A measure of inflation from the perspective of domestic producers, tracking the average change in selling prices they receive.

PPI (生产者价格指数): 从国内生产商角度衡量的通胀指标，追踪其销售价格的平均变化。

Dot Plot (点阵图): A chart published by the Fed that shows where each of its officials expects the federal funds rate to be in the coming years.

点阵图 (Dot Plot): 美联储发布的一张图表，显示每位官员对未来几年联邦基金利率的预测。

Disinflation (通胀减速): A slowdown in the rate of price inflation. It is used to describe instances when the inflation rate has reduced marginally over the short term.

通胀减速 (Disinflation): 价格上涨速度放缓的现象。用于描述通胀率在短期内略有下降的情况。

CDS (Credit Default Swap): A financial derivative that allows an investor to "swap" or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. It's like an insurance policy on debt.

CDS (信用违约互换): 一种金融衍生品，允许投资者将其信用风险与另一位投资者进行“互换”或对冲。它类似于一种债务保险。

DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): An index that measures the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies.

DXY (美元指数): 一个衡量美元相对于一篮子外币价值的指数。

Rare Earths (稀土): A group of 17 chemically similar metallic elements that are critical components in many modern technologies, including electronics and defense systems.

稀土 (Rare Earths): 一组化学性质相似的17种金属元素，是许多现代技术（包括电子产品和国防系统）的关键组成部分。

Emerging Market-ification (新兴市场化): A non-standard term used to describe a developed economy that begins to exhibit characteristics of an emerging market, such as higher volatility, political instability, or weakening creditworthiness.

新兴市场化 (Emerging Market-ification): 一个非标准术语，用于描述一个发达经济体开始表现出新兴市场的特征，例如更高的波动性、政治不稳定或信用评级下降。

This report was generated from an audio transcript and has been edited for clarity, structure, and accuracy.