Are Tariffs Driving Up Food Prices in Ontario? / 关税正在推高安大略省的食品价格吗？
Host / 主持人:
Jeyan Jeganathan (substituting for Steve Paikin) / 杰扬·杰加纳坦 (代班史蒂夫·帕金)
Guests / 嘉宾:
Stuart Trew / 斯图尔特·特鲁: Director of the Trade and Investment Research Project at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives (Ottawa). / 加拿大政策替代中心贸易与投资研究项目主任 (渥太华)。
Mike von Massow / 迈克·冯·马索: Food Economist and Professor at the Ontario Agricultural College at the University of Guelph (Guelph, Ontario). / 圭尔夫大学安大略农业学院食品经济学家兼教授 (安大略省圭尔夫市)。
Karl Littler / 卡尔·利特勒: Senior Vice President of Public Affairs at the Retail Council of Canada (Provincial Capital - Toronto). / 加拿大零售委员会公共事务高级副总裁 (省会多伦多)。
Tu Nguyen / 阮图: Economist and Director of Environmental, Social, and Governance for RSM Canada (In studio). / RSM 加拿大公司经济学家兼环境、社会与治理总监 (演播室嘉宾)。
Jeyan Jeganathan: The Agenda with Steve Paikin is made possible through generous philanthropic contributions from viewers like you. Thank you for supporting TVO's journalism. Tonight, what effect are tariffs having on your pocketbook? Then Steve Paikin speaks to the filmmaker and participants of a new TVO original documentary about the dangers of online gaming on children. That's ahead on the agenda.
杰扬·杰加纳坦：《与史蒂夫·帕金议程》的制作得益于像您这样的观众的慷慨慈善捐助。感谢您对 TVO 新闻事业的支持。今晚，关税对您的钱包有何影响？随后，史蒂夫·帕金将与一部关于网络游戏对儿童危害的 TVO 原创纪录片的制片人和参与者进行对话。精彩内容即将在《议程》中呈现。
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Jeyan Jeganathan: President Donald Trump's trade threats and tariffs have brought uncertainty to markets worldwide. Should Ontarians expect to pay more at the grocery store? And is there a risk that companies could exploit the turmoil and bump up sticker prices regardless? Let's ask. In the nation's capital, Stuart Trew, director of the Trade and Investment Research Project at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives. In Guelph, Ontario, Mike von Massow, food economist and professor at the Ontario Agricultural College at the University of Guelph. In the provincial capital, Karl Littler, senior vice president of public affairs at the Retail Council of Canada. And with us in studio, Tu Nguyen, economist and director of environmental, social, and governance for RSM Canada. Welcome to our studio. And for those joining us online, before we dig in, let's look at part of a message. This was by Per Bank, president and CEO of Loblaw Companies Limited. He recently posted on LinkedIn, "Our customers might have seen a T-symbol on our shelf labels, which indicated that a product has been impacted by tariffs. So far, we've been able to limit the number of T symbols on our shelves to a little over a thousand items, but our inventory is running out, and in the next week or two, the number of products with a T-symbol will surge to over 3,000. Within the next two months, that number could peak at over 6,000." Alright, so we get a sense of how companies are trying to sort of be transparent and and balance things during these erratic times. Mike, I'm curious. You know, there's been a lot of news. Yesterday we know a US federal court blocked many of Trump's tariffs ruling that there was administration overstepping. The Trump administration of course has appealed that. Catch us up to speed here if this ruling stands after the appeal. What does this mean for our counter tariffs and the tariff situation right now?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易威胁和关税给全球市场带来了不确定性。安大略省居民是否应该预期在杂货店支付更多费用？公司是否有可能利用这种混乱局面，不顾一切地提高标价？让我们来问问。在国家首都，加拿大政策替代中心贸易与投资研究项目主任斯图尔特·特鲁。在安大略省圭尔夫市，圭尔夫大学安大略农业学院食品经济学家兼教授迈克·冯·马索。在省会，加拿大零售委员会公共事务高级副总裁卡尔·利特勒。以及与我们同在演播室的 RSM 加拿大公司经济学家兼环境、社会与治理总监阮图。欢迎来到我们的演播室。对于在线加入我们的朋友们，在我们深入探讨之前，让我们先看一条信息的一部分。这是 Loblaw Companies Limited 总裁兼首席执行官佩尔·班克发布的。他最近在 LinkedIn 上发帖称：“我们的顾客可能已经在我们的货架标签上看到了一个 T 符号，这表明该产品受到了关税的影响。到目前为止，我们已将货架上 T 符号的数量限制在略多于一千件商品，但我们的库存即将耗尽，在未来一两周内，带有 T 符号的产品数量将激增至三千多件。在接下来的两个月内，这个数字可能会达到六千多件的峰值。”好吧，所以我们大致了解了公司在这些动荡时期是如何努力保持透明和平衡的。迈克，我很好奇。你知道，最近有很多新闻。昨天我们知道，美国一家联邦法院阻止了特朗普的许多关税，裁定政府越权。特朗普政府当然已经对此提起了上诉。如果这项裁决在上诉后仍然有效，请告诉我们最新进展。这对我们的反制关税和目前的关税形势意味着什么？
Introduction to Tariffs and Recent Rulings / 关税介绍及近期裁决
Mike von Massow: Well, most of the tariffs have been paused anyway and this ruling doesn't relate to the automobile or steel and aluminum tariffs. So fundamentally, I don't think it changes a whole bunch in our relationship with the US as it sits right now.
***迈克·冯·马索：*嗯，大部分关税无论如何都已经暂停了，而且这项裁决与汽车或钢铁和铝的关税无关。所以从根本上说，我认为它不会对我们目前与美国的关系产生太大改变。
Stuart Trew: Yeah, I I would tend to agree with that. I mean, there are these tariffs still in place, auto, steel, these are highly problematic. They're resulting, as we've seen, in work stoppages and layoffs in Ontario. So, that's a big problem. I think though the effect of the court ruling will be substantial in that it does make Trump look pretty bad, right, in imposing those broad tariffs, the migration and fentanyl related tariffs on Canada. It really kind of undermines fundamentally what Trump has done there might give Canada some leverage as we continue to try and get rid of those other tariffs that are actually in effect.
***斯图尔特·特鲁：*是的，我倾向于同意这一点。我的意思是，这些关税仍然存在，汽车、钢铁，这些都非常有问题。正如我们所见，它们导致了安大略省的停工和裁员。所以，这是一个大问题。但我认为，法院裁决的影响将是巨大的，因为它确实让特朗普在征收那些广泛的关税，即针对加拿大的移民和芬太尼相关关税方面，看起来相当糟糕，对吧？这在根本上削弱了特朗普在那里的所作所为，这可能会在我们继续努力取消那些实际生效的其他关税时，给加拿大一些筹码。
Karl Littler: Yeah, I might see it a little bit differently. Um the the tariffs that were ruled illicit were in relation to the spurious fentanyl basis. And so Canada's first tranche of tariffs on $30 billion of US goods actually is pretty heavily focused on food. So to the extent that these are struck down and if that is maintained through the court system and if Canada then responds with respect to its retaliatory tariffs then food actually could be significantly exempted as in consequence.
***卡尔·利特勒：*是的，我可能对此有 немного不同的看法。嗯，那些被裁定为非法的关税是与虚假的芬太尼依据有关。因此，加拿大对价值 300 亿美元的美国商品征收的第一批关税，实际上相当侧重于食品。因此，如果这些关税被推翻，并且如果这在法院系统中得以维持，并且如果加拿大随后就其报复性关税做出回应，那么食品实际上可能会因此而被大幅豁免。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Is it fair to say then that we could see those T-signs come down?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*那么，说我们可能会看到那些 T 标志消失，这样说公平吗？
Karl Littler: Well, I think it's a bit precipitous for that. I mean, the government, the US government has, as I understand it, 10 days to bring themselves into compliance and obviously the Canadian government still facing the steel and aluminum tariffs and and obviously a pretty fractious trade environment is going to need to consider what would remain in place and what would not. But certainly on the surface of it, it is possible that if the retaliatory measures in response to that sort of fentanyl push from the US side were to be dropped by the Canadian government that could have a significant impact on the food side.
***卡尔·利特勒：*嗯，我认为现在这么说还有点为时过早。我的意思是，据我了解，美国政府有 10 天的时间来使自己合规，显然加拿大政府仍然面临钢铁和铝的关税，而且显然是一个相当不稳定的贸易环境，将需要考虑哪些措施将继续存在，哪些不会。但当然，从表面上看，如果加拿大政府取消针对美国方面那种芬太尼压力的报复性措施，那可能会对食品方面产生重大影响。
Impact on Grocery Prices / 对食品杂货价格的影响
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright, let's take a step back from yesterday's news, have a bigger scope over the last couple of months. What kinds of things are going up in price at the grocery store?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好吧，让我们从昨天的新闻中退一步，放眼过去几个月更大的范围。杂货店里哪些东西在涨价？
Tu Nguyen: Well, so Canada has put retaliatory tariffs on a lot of food items coming from the US. That's 25% on everything from dairy to meat and seafood and whatnot. So those are items where we have seen being impacted by tariffs. Now the Canadian government has actually dropped a lot of the tariffs specifically on food that is manufactured or packaged in Canada. So I think the biggest impact we will see is from perishables that are brought directly from the US and not being repackaged and further processed here.
***阮图：*嗯，加拿大对许多来自美国的食品征收了报复性关税。从乳制品到肉类、海鲜等等，所有这些都征收了 25% 的关税。所以这些是我们看到受到关税影响的商品。现在，加拿大政府实际上已经取消了许多关税，特别是针对在加拿大制造或包装的食品。所以我认为我们将看到的最大影响来自直接从美国进口且未经重新包装和进一步加工的易腐烂食品。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Mike, I am curious. You know, it seems kind of hard to think about what it was like before January, but before all the tariff related back and forth, what was the situation with grocery prices here in Canada?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*迈克，我很好奇。你知道，现在似乎很难想象一月份之前的情况，但在所有与关税相关的反复之前，加拿大这里的食品杂货价格情况如何？
Mike von Massow: Well, we've seen grocery prices go up over the last three or four years for a variety of reasons. We know we talk about extreme weather and the war in Ukraine and a lower Canadian dollar and it adds up. We sort of had a perfect storm of impacts, if you will, that led to these price increases. So, we'd seen some of those begin to moderate a little bit. We hadn't seen prices come down a lot, but the rate of increase had slowed dramatically and and before January, we were saying that food was actually lagging behind the general rate of inflation.
***迈克·冯·马索：*嗯，过去三四年里，由于各种原因，我们看到食品杂货价格上涨。我们知道，我们谈论极端天气、乌克兰战争以及加元贬值，这些因素叠加在一起。可以说，我们经历了一场导致这些价格上涨的完美风暴。所以，我们已经看到其中一些因素开始有所缓和。我们没有看到价格大幅下降，但上涨速度已显著放缓，而且在一月份之前，我们曾说食品价格实际上落后于总体通货膨胀率。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright. So, I'm curious, you know, as Mike had mentioned, there's a number of factors that kind of go into the prices that we see. Can we identify which factors are driving prices up in particular? If we're talking about, you know, climate disasters, if we're talking about war, are we able to kind of get behind those numbers?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的。所以，我很好奇，你知道，正如迈克提到的，有许多因素影响我们看到的价格。我们能具体确定哪些因素在推高价格吗？如果我们谈论的是气候灾害，如果我们谈论的是战争，我们能深入了解这些数字背后的原因吗？
Tu Nguyen: Well, it really varies on a case-by-case basis. For example, if it's climate disasters, we know that it's going to be crops that are specifically impacted by those disasters, right? Wildfires, drought, extreme temperatures. If it's the war in Ukraine, it's going to be wheat, a lot of grains, like cooking oils. So, it really depends. With tariffs, we do have a list of what is being impacted posted on the government website. So, there is much easier to identify.
***阮图：*嗯，这确实因情况而异。例如，如果是气候灾害，我们知道受这些灾害特别影响的将是农作物，对吧？野火、干旱、极端气温。如果是乌克兰战争，那将是小麦、大量谷物，比如食用油。所以，这真的取决于具体情况。至于关税，政府网站上确实公布了受影响商品的清单。所以，识别起来要容易得多。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Is it possible to determine though how much tariffs play in a role when we talk about if we're talking about cents and dollars for sort of down the line to a consumer how much that you know a tariff impact versus something like a climate disaster?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*但是，当我们谈论最终消费者需要支付的几分钱或几美元时，有没有可能确定关税在其中扮演了多大的角色，也就是说，关税的影响与气候灾害这类因素相比有多大？
Tu Nguyen: Well that is a lot murkier to determine because as you might know the price of something is determined by not only the cost of production but also the prices you have to pay to the workers transportation cost. So gasoline price fluctuations also impact prices and then the cost of storage warehousing to a number of other factors. So while we can see that okay there are certain drivers driving up prices of certain goods how much of that ends up being in the price increase is much harder to determine.
***阮图：*嗯，这要确定起来就模糊得多了，因为你可能知道，商品的价格不仅取决于生产成本，还取决于你必须支付给工人的工资和运输成本。所以汽油价格的波动也会影响价格，然后还有仓储成本等许多其他因素。因此，虽然我们可以看到某些因素推高了某些商品的价格，但其中有多少最终体现在价格上涨中，则要难确定得多。
Identifying Tariff-Affected Goods / 识别受关税影响的商品
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright, Stuart. Is there any way for a customer to confirm which specific goods are being affected by tariffs beyond the signs placed by Loblaws, for example?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的，斯图尔特。除了例如 Loblaws 放置的标志之外，顾客还有其他方法可以确认哪些特定商品受到了关税的影响吗？
Stuart Trew: Um, I imagine they could go through the list themselves, but is there some other way that they can kind of identify and figure out? Yeah, there there is the list. Uh, there is a tariff tracker that was established by a number of government agencies as well. So, if you if you have the wherewithal, you can go to that. I think it's tarifftracker.ca if I'm not mistaken. And while you're perusing the store shelves, you could even punch in what you think you're looking at, right? Almond milk or something like that. Um and go through a number of prompts on the site and it'll eventually tell you if if it does face any tariffs, you know, on the products, you have to specify the country of origin and that kind of thing. But that's that's a hassle, I think, for people to go through at the grocery store shelves. I think I'll just kind of emphasize too what we've been saying that it's very difficult to determine all the factors that lead to what you're paying at the grocery store and that's not just because there's a lot of factors like currency value and you know cost of production and whatnot climate change in the case of food but it's because a lot of the places where we buy our foods grocery stores sell a lot of stuff right that isn't groceries um and they have the power to establish margins on different products right so they can raise prices here lower them there they do this on different bases to get people into the store buying stuff and we simply have no idea on what basis they are charging what prices for what goods so I think that is an issue something we we can take up as a government potentially not in a extremely public way making them show the books to everyone but it's possible we could have some reforms at the competition bureau for example where somebody is seeing how they're making those choices essentially to make sure that they're not they're not pulling any strings on us.
***斯图尔特·特鲁：*嗯，我想他们可以自己查阅清单，但有没有其他方法可以让他们识别和弄清楚呢？是的，有那个清单。嗯，还有一个由多个政府机构建立的关税追踪器。所以，如果你有这个能力，你可以去查。如果我没记错的话，应该是 tarifftracker.ca。当你在逛商店货架时，你甚至可以输入你认为你正在看的商品，对吧？比如杏仁奶之类的。然后在网站上经过一系列提示，它最终会告诉你该产品是否面临任何关税，你知道，在产品上，你必须指明原产国之类的事情。但我认为，这对人们在杂货店货架前这样做来说是个麻烦事。我想我还要强调一下我们一直在说的，那就是很难确定导致你在杂货店支付价格的所有因素，这不仅仅是因为有很多因素，比如货币价值、生产成本等等，还有气候变化（就食品而言），还因为我们购买食品的许多地方，杂货店也卖很多非食品杂货的东西，对吧？而且他们有权为不同的产品设定利润率，所以他们可以在这里提高价格，在那里降低价格，他们这样做是为了吸引人们进店购物，而我们根本不知道他们是根据什么来为哪些商品定价的。所以我认为这是一个问题，我们政府或许可以处理一下，不是以一种极端公开的方式让他们向所有人展示账簿，但我们或许可以在竞争局进行一些改革，例如，让某些人监督他们是如何做出这些决定的，以确保他们没有在背后操纵我们。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright, I want to pick up on that a little bit later.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的，我想稍后再谈这一点。
Independent Grocers vs. Chains / 独立杂货店与连锁店
Jeyan Jeganathan: Mike, let's talk independent grocers versus chains. Are they facing similar pressures due to tariffs?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*迈克，我们来谈谈独立杂货店和连锁店。它们是否因关税而面临类似的压力？
Mike von Massow: Well, I think independent grocers in many cases will have similar pressures to the big grocers. They're buying things perhaps from different distribution systems, but they're buying things that may be tariffed. I think it's also important to remember that the US tariff on aluminum and steel although we're not tariffing food packaging coming back may actually increase the cost of some things that aren't tariffed because packaging will go up. So I think that independent grocers in some cases if they're bringing in specialty items that are on the list may feel a pinch. If they're not bringing those items in and are more focused on Canadian products, there shouldn't be an impact. So it depends by an individual store what's on the shelves and where they're getting those products from. I think it's important to remember that there was a relatively selective imposition of tariffs and such and as Tu said dairy products have tariffs on them but our share of the US share of the Canadian dairy market is relatively small. So there will be non-tariff products remaining on the shelves that will protect people. So the store impacts will vary depending on what they have on the shelves.
***迈克·冯·马索：*嗯，我认为在许多情况下，独立杂货商将面临与大型杂货商类似的压力。他们购买的商品可能来自不同的分销系统，但他们购买的商品可能会被征收关税。我认为同样重要的是要记住，美国对铝和钢铁征收的关税，尽管我们没有对返回的食品包装征收关税，但实际上可能会增加一些未征税商品的成本，因为包装成本会上升。所以我认为，在某些情况下，如果独立杂货商进口清单上的特色商品，他们可能会感到压力。如果他们不进口这些商品，而是更专注于加拿大产品，那么应该不会有影响。所以这取决于个别商店货架上有什么以及他们从哪里获得这些产品。我认为重要的是要记住，关税的征收相对具有选择性，正如阮图所说，乳制品被征收了关税，但美国在加拿大乳制品市场中的份额相对较小。因此，货架上仍会有非关税产品，这将保护人们。所以商店受到的影响将取决于货架上有什么。
Substitutability of Goods / 商品的可替代性
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright. From that too, then I'm going to come to you. How easy will it be for customers to substitute the tariffed goods for Canadian goods?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的。那么，关于这一点，我也想问问你。顾客用加拿大商品替代受关税影响的商品会有多容易？
Tu Nguyen: Well, that depends. And I think in this case, the Canadian government actually was quite strategic in placing tariffs on items that can be substituted. Um for example, dairy can be substituted. meat a lot of time can be um produce. Uh so fresh fruits and vegetables are easier to substitute in the summer. There are certain things that we just don't grow in Canada right so oranges for example is a prime example of goods where if consumers want to buy them they just have to pay higher prices. Um but what has been happening is that some grocers and some shoppers are switching away from American grown products to imports from other countries. So that is a way of substitutability as well. Um not just going towards Canadian grown. Obviously we do see the "buy Canadian" movement leading people to prioritize Canadian products but also to substitute and diversify away from American products.
***阮图：*嗯，这要看情况。而且我认为在这种情况下，加拿大政府在对可替代商品征收关税方面实际上是相当有策略的。例如，乳制品可以被替代。肉类很多时候也可以是农产品。所以新鲜水果和蔬菜在夏天更容易替代。有些东西我们加拿大根本不种植，对吧？所以例如橙子就是一个典型的例子，如果消费者想购买，他们就必须支付更高的价格。但是现在发生的情况是，一些杂货商和一些购物者正在从美国种植的产品转向从其他国家进口。所以这也是一种可替代性的方式。不仅仅是转向加拿大种植的产品。显然，我们确实看到“购买加拿大货”运动引导人们优先考虑加拿大产品，但也促使人们替代和分散对美国产品的依赖。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright. Uh Mike, I'm coming to you this because I know you love Wisconsin cheese. Uh so I am curious. Are there items that are harder or impossible to replace?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的。呃，迈克，我来问你这个问题，因为我知道你喜欢威斯康星州的奶酪。呃，所以我很好奇。有没有一些商品更难或者根本无法替代？
Mike von Massow: Well, there's almost nothing that is impossible to replace depending on how specific you are to a brand. You know, if there are lots of great non-tariff dairy products, lots of great Canadian products. We're still importing products from from Europe. So yeah, unless you're stuck on a specific old old cheddar from Wisconsin, you're going to be able to have some choice on oranges. You know, Florida represents an increasingly smaller portion of the Canadian citrus market. And so, you know, you can buy grapefruit from Turkey, oranges from Morocco, oranges from South Africa. We're also bringing a lot of frozen orange juice concentrate in from South America. It's being reconstituted here. So, if you're stuck on fresh-squeezed Florida orange juice, then in that circumstance, it's going to be hard to substitute. If you're willing to look at reconstituted orange juice that is packaged in Canada with Canadian water, then then there are going to be choices. It really depends on the specificity. I think Tu also made a good point that you can switch to other products. You know, we have apple juice in Canada if you're if you're going to switch away from orange juice. Um in the winter, you know we have stored Canadian carrots and those sorts of things that we can switch to. So I would argue that there's almost nothing that isn't replaceable. But that you it's the degree of willingness you are to make those changes. We as Canadians are creatures of habit. So if something's in your basket last week, it's likely to have been in your basket this week.
***迈克·冯·马索：*嗯，几乎没有什么东西是无法替代的，这取决于你对某个品牌的具体偏好程度。你知道，如果有很多优质的非关税乳制品，很多优质的加拿大产品。我们仍在从欧洲进口产品。所以是的，除非你执着于某种特定的威斯康星州陈年切达奶酪，否则你将能够在橙子方面有一些选择。你知道，佛罗里达州在加拿大柑橘市场中所占的份额越来越小。所以，你知道，你可以从土耳其购买葡萄柚，从摩洛哥购买橙子，从南非购买橙子。我们还从南美洲进口了大量冷冻浓缩橙汁。它在这里被重新调制。所以，如果你执着于鲜榨佛罗里达橙汁，那么在这种情况下，就很难找到替代品。如果你愿意考虑用加拿大水在加拿大包装的复原橙汁，那么就会有选择。这真的取决于具体情况。我认为阮图也提出了一个很好的观点，你可以转向其他产品。你知道，如果你要放弃橙汁，加拿大有苹果汁。嗯，在冬天，你知道我们有储存的加拿大胡萝卜之类的东西可以替代。所以我认为几乎没有什么东西是不可替代的。但这取决于你做出这些改变的意愿程度。我们加拿大人是习惯的动物。所以如果上周你的购物篮里有某种东西，那么这周它很可能还在你的购物篮里。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Stuart, I am curious. I want you to pick up on some of what Mike said, but I am curious when we talk about alternatives sometimes that could lead to potentially costs a little bit more. And I think there's this thinking that Canadian goods usually are more expensive. Is that the case?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*斯图尔特，我很好奇。我想让你接着迈克的一些观点谈谈，但我很好奇，当我们谈论替代品时，有时这可能会导致成本略高一些。而且我认为有这样一种想法，即加拿大商品通常更贵。是这样吗？
Stuart Trew: Um yeah, sometimes sometimes they're not. Um you know, and we are entering a moment where we are growing a lot more in Canada, right? We've hit the summer, so there will be more Canadian produce on the shelves. That could bring prices down. Often does for some of the perishable stuff, right? Um and and as we were just talking about, you know, oranges and other citrus from Egypt and other parts of the world, I mean, that stuff is often cheaper, right? So, you know, it's not necessarily going to result in higher prices by having people buy Canadian. Um I'd also like to point out too that we got to keep in mind that these and this is where I have a problem with this tariff logo that's going on at Loblaws. Um is that these importers, right, it's sometimes it's Loblaws. They they import directly from US producers. Sometimes it's a middleman, middle company, um the wholesalers or or the suppliers. Um they're they're paying the tariff on the wholesale price, right? So they're paying it on a lower value. And there's no reason why we should expect goods to go up in price at the grocery store by 25% or whatnot, right? So it's it's going to be passed on along the supply chain, right? Not just directly 25% to the consumer. And there's a lot of ways the grocery stores can handle this so that we're not actually feeling the price at all. And so this is the problem I have with Loblaws's tariff logo is it's a bit misleading. It's a bit confusing um for something that is going to be very moderately affecting their their profits. I would say like we've mentioned the tariffs are not actually on a lot of food products and there's a lot of exceptions especially for food brought in that's reprocessed in Canada. There's a remission program now. So there's a lot of uh there's a lot of confusion going in here that I think we could avoid for the consumer. Um, and and the tariff logo for me just adds an element of confusion that's not really necessary.
***斯图尔特·特鲁：*嗯，是的，有时是这样，有时不是。嗯，你知道，我们正进入一个在加拿大种植更多作物的时期，对吧？夏天到了，货架上会有更多的加拿大农产品。这可能会降低价格。对于一些易腐烂的商品来说，通常是这样，对吧？嗯，正如我们刚才谈到的，你知道，来自埃及和世界其他地方的橙子和其他柑橘类水果，我的意思是，那些东西通常更便宜，对吧？所以，你知道，让人们购买加拿大产品不一定会导致更高的价格。我还想指出，我们必须记住，这些——这就是我对 Loblaws 正在使用的这个关税标志有意见的地方。嗯，是这些进口商，对吧，有时是 Loblaws。他们直接从美国生产商那里进口。有时是中间商，中间公司，嗯，批发商或供应商。嗯，他们是按批发价支付关税的，对吧？所以他们是按较低的价值支付的。我们没有理由期望杂货店的商品价格会上涨 25% 或其他什么幅度，对吧？所以它会沿着供应链传递下去，对吧？不仅仅是直接给消费者增加 25%。而且杂货店有很多方法可以处理这个问题，这样我们实际上根本感觉不到价格上涨。所以这就是我对 Loblaws 关税标志的问题所在，它有点误导。对于一个只会对其利润产生非常轻微影响的事情来说，它有点令人困惑。我想说，正如我们提到的，关税实际上并没有针对很多食品，而且有很多例外，特别是对于运入加拿大并在这里再加工的食品。现在有一个减免计划。所以这里有很多，嗯，有很多混淆之处，我认为我们可以为消费者避免。嗯，对我来说，这个关税标志只是增加了一个不必要的混淆因素。
The Role of Grocers in Absorbing Costs / 杂货商在吸收成本中的作用
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright, Karl, I am curious. Uh, I want to pick up on that with Loblaws, but let's talk Walmart because Donald Trump has suggested that Walmart should eat the tariffs, his words. Um, could grocery stores absorb the cost and maybe pick up on sort of what Stuart was saying.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的，卡尔，我很好奇。呃，我想就 Loblaws 的问题继续谈谈，但我们来谈谈沃尔玛，因为唐纳德·特朗普曾建议沃尔玛应该“吃掉”关税，这是他的原话。嗯，杂货店能否吸收成本，或许可以接续斯图尔特刚才所说的？
Karl Littler: Well, I think there's two answers to that. The first one is that the whole point of the retaliatory Canadian tariffs is to try and weigh upon American business and farm interests to persuade the Trump administration to not continue with tariffs against Canada. So that's kind of the first principle and obviously if um if those vendors from the US are not prepared to then swallow that tariff themselves and it goes uh on the grocer um and then there is no pass through to the consumer then there's no net effect of what the Canadian retaliatory tariff was supposed to achieve because all that's happened is that the grocers have then swallowed it essentially by dropping their you know dropping their ability to make profit. So it wouldn't actually work in the sense of its intention by the federal government which is to actually see either um lower volumes coming from US vendors or that US vendors are not able to obtain as high a product for their for their market. So that's the first part. Then the second part is I think it's important to understand that roughly speaking grocers make about 3 and a half percent net profit on their sales and in fact it's more like 2 to 2.5% with respect to food items. They make a bit more on health and beauty and some of the allied elements in their in their portfolios. So if you are looking at roughly 10% of their of their SKUs (Stock Keeping Units) if you like are coming from the US side facing 25% tariffs at the wholesale level then that is an absolutely massive amount for grocers to swallow relative to their profitability and grocer profitability is in the zone of 2 to 2 and a half percent on food that compares to three to five times that level at the manufacturer or vendor level. So I don't know why people would then necessarily presume that the grocers should swallow that hit. But I go back to the point that unless some pressure is created on the US side then all of these countervailing tariffs will have been up to no effect. So I don't think having grocers swallow it does anything whatsoever to achieve the government's goal.
***卡尔·利特勒：*嗯，我认为对此有两个答案。首先，加拿大报复性关税的全部目的是试图对美国商业和农业利益施加压力，以说服特朗普政府不要继续对加拿大征收关税。所以这有点像第一原则，显然，如果来自美国的那些供应商不准备自己承担那笔关税，而这笔关税转嫁给了杂货商，然后没有转嫁给消费者，那么加拿大报复性关税本应达到的效果就没有了，因为发生的一切就是杂货商通过降低他们盈利的能力，基本上是自己承担了。所以，从联邦政府的意图来看，这实际上是行不通的，联邦政府的意图实际上是看到要么来自美国供应商的销量下降，要么美国供应商无法为其市场获得那么高的产品价格。这是第一部分。然后第二部分是，我认为重要的是要理解，粗略地说，杂货商的净利润率约为其销售额的 3.5%，实际上，就食品而言，更像是 2% 到 2.5%。他们在健康美容和其投资组合中的一些相关项目上赚得更多一些。所以，如果你看到他们大约 10% 的 SKU（库存单位），如果你愿意这么说，来自美国方面，在批发层面面临 25% 的关税，那么相对于他们的盈利能力而言，这对杂货商来说绝对是一个巨大的数额，而杂货商在食品上的盈利能力在 2% 到 2.5% 之间，这与制造商或供应商层面的三到五倍相比。所以我不知道为什么人们会必然认为杂货商应该承担这个打击。但我回到我的观点，除非在美国方面施加一些压力，否则所有这些反补贴关税都将是徒劳的。所以我认为让杂货商承担它对实现政府的目标没有任何作用。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Stuart, I think I want to get your response on that as well. And is it unreasonable to think a corporation should forego large profits to keep prices lower?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*斯图尔特，我想听听你对此的看法。认为公司应该放弃巨额利润以保持较低价格，这是否不合理？
Stuart Trew: Well, I think we should be honest. I mean, grocery profits are higher than they were prior to the pandemic. This is something we haven't seen across other industries, right? So, food producers, others have gone back to pre-pandemic levels of profits. Grocery stores are actually making more, right? So, they've kind of stabilized at a higher level. So, I do think there is more padding. I would push back on there. I'd say there's more padding to eat this. I do agree though that the tariffs are there for a political reason. They're there to put pressure on producers in the United States. But again, you know, if you're a grocery store and you want to help do that, you know, you do kind of push go back to the producers and push back in that sense, right? If the pain's going to remain in the United States, then let's keep it in the United States and make sure the Canadian consumers are not paying the price of that. I think and I think when I say that these retaliatory tariffs are not affecting a ton of food products, um they're not really going to affect Canadians that much. I really do think that, you know, they have been selected carefully so that there are alternatives, right, for consumers at the end of the day. Um and that's the point. So, but just to reinforce that idea, yeah, let's by all means let's put more pressure on producers in the United States, keep the price increase off of consumers in Canada. and and I do think there's a lot of padding in grocery store profits to make that happen.
***斯图尔特·特鲁：*嗯，我认为我们应该诚实一点。我的意思是，杂货店的利润比疫情前要高。这是我们在其他行业没有看到的现象，对吧？所以，食品生产商和其他一些行业已经回到了疫情前的利润水平。而杂货店实际上赚得更多了，对吧？所以，它们在某种程度上稳定在了一个更高的水平。所以我确实认为有更多的缓冲空间。我会对此提出异议。我会说有更多的缓冲空间来消化这个。但我确实同意，关税的存在是出于政治原因。它们是为了给美国的生产商施加压力。但是，再说一次，你知道，如果你是一家杂货店，并且你想帮助做到这一点，你知道，你确实会某种程度上向生产商施压，从这个意义上说，对吧？如果痛苦要留在美国，那么就让它留在美国，并确保加拿大消费者不会为此付出代价。我认为，当我说这些报复性关税并没有影响大量的食品时，嗯，它们实际上不会对加拿大人产生那么大的影响。我真的认为，你知道，它们是经过精心挑选的，以便最终为消费者提供替代品，对吧？嗯，这就是重点。所以，但只是为了强调这个观点，是的，让我们务必给美国的生产商施加更大的压力，让加拿大的消费者免受价格上涨的影响。而且我确实认为杂货店的利润中有足够的缓冲空间来实现这一点。
Supply Chain Adjustments / 供应链调整
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright. Tu, I want to talk supply chains. Um you know, we talked about the the buy Canada movement, but a lot of people have talked about sort of how do we bolster um you know, production here? Um are grocery stores starting to establish new supply chains, new relationships uh perhaps not necessarily north south but east west?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的。阮图，我想谈谈供应链。嗯，你知道，我们谈到了“购买加拿大货”运动，但很多人也谈到了我们如何加强本地生产？嗯，杂货店是否开始建立新的供应链、新的关系，也许不一定是南北向，而是东西向的？
Tu Nguyen: Um absolutely. And I think on an international level as well um because of tariffs and and I think more important is the uncertainty of things can changing at any day at any moment. A lot of grocery stores and businesses in general have been trying to find alternative suppliers from different countries. So for example, buying oranges for Morocco instead of the Florida that's that's an example and why this results in higher cost at the beginning when you sign new contracts when you figure out transportation how do we get goods from A to B in the long run I think it bolster resilience of the Canadian supply chain now in terms of east to west there are policy initiatives to achieve that right so I think in many many decades we haven't seen such a willingness between provinces and with the federal government to work together to remove interprovincial trade barriers later this month. Ontario and Manitoba. Exactly. And hopefully we'll see BC wine in LCBO soon and vice versa. And there's no reason why it shouldn't be. Right. We were having California wines in LCBO for a very very long time. And so those things will help the Canadian economy, Canadian businesses, and will help our economic growth overall.
***阮图：*嗯，绝对是的。而且我认为在国际层面上也是如此，嗯，因为关税，而且我认为更重要的是事情随时可能发生变化的不确定性。许多杂货店和企业总体上一直在努力从不同国家寻找替代供应商。例如，从摩洛哥购买橙子而不是佛罗里达的橙子，这就是一个例子，为什么这会导致初期成本较高，当你签订新合同时，当你弄清楚运输问题，我们如何将货物从 A 地运到 B 地，从长远来看，我认为这增强了加拿大供应链的弹性。现在就东西向而言，有一些政策举措来实现这一点，对吧？所以我认为在过去的几十年里，我们从未见过各省之间以及与联邦政府之间有如此强烈的意愿共同努力消除省际贸易壁垒，本月晚些时候安大略省和曼尼托巴省（将签署协议）。完全正确。希望我们很快能在 LCBO 看到卑诗省的葡萄酒，反之亦然。而且没有理由不应该这样。对。我们 LCBO 里销售加州葡萄酒已经有很长很长时间了。所以这些事情将有助于加拿大经济、加拿大企业，并将有助于我们整体的经济增长。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright, Mike, I want to get your take on that as well. Supply chains, what are we seeing there? And, you know, we'll pick up on um the, you know, interprovincial trade barriers. We saw Ontario and Manitoba sign a an MOU, a memorandum of understanding to, you know, get those trade barriers down. Um, how what are we seeing in terms of those new relationships and new supply chains going perhaps east west?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的，迈克，我也想听听你对此的看法。供应链，我们在这方面看到了什么？而且，你知道，我们会继续讨论省际贸易壁垒的问题。我们看到安大略省和曼尼托巴省签署了一份谅解备忘录，你知道，旨在降低这些贸易壁垒。嗯，在那些可能走向东西向的新关系和新供应链方面，我们看到了什么？
Mike von Massow: Well, I I think there will be some some increased movement east west. What we have to remember is that the reason we've seen this north south alignment is that it makes sense economically that there is you know when when the border is relatively open with minimal tariffs it makes more sense for product to come from from eastern Canada to to eastern US and vice versa and in the west that it be oriented the other way. So we need to think about I think Tu is right that internationally may actually work easier in the short run not only because of inter provincial barriers to trade but because of infrastructure to move product east west in Canada. So will it happen more? Yes. Um the uncertainty means that I think people are holding their breath a little bit to see exactly what the best way to to address this issue is but but without a doubt we're up we we are seeing a move not only on the part of grocers but regulators to to find other sources for products so that we are not as dependent on the US and our supply chain becomes more resilient not only in the face of tariffs but also in the face of of increasing weather uncertainty and and other things. I think that diversification is overdue.
***迈克·冯·马索：*嗯，我认为东西向的流动会有所增加。我们必须记住，我们看到这种南北向排列的原因是，从经济上讲，当边境相对开放且关税最低时，产品从加拿大东部运往美国东部，反之亦然，以及在西部产品流向相反方向，这样更合理。所以我们需要考虑，我认为阮图是对的，从国际上看，短期内可能更容易实现，这不仅是因为省际贸易壁垒，还因为加拿大东西向产品运输的基础设施。那么这种情况会更多地发生吗？是的。嗯，不确定性意味着我认为人们有点屏息以待，想看看解决这个问题的最佳方法究竟是什么，但毫无疑问，我们不仅在杂货商方面，而且在监管机构方面，都看到了寻找其他产品来源的举动，这样我们就不会那么依赖美国，我们的供应链不仅在面对关税时，而且在面对日益增加的天气不确定性和其他因素时，都变得更具弹性。我认为这种多元化早就该进行了。
Concerns about Price Gouging / 对价格欺诈的担忧
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright. The New York Times recently noted that quote, "A variety of populist-minded thinkers across the political spectrum think that there may be grounds for concern about price gouging." So Stuart, I'm going to come to you. Do you think it's likely that companies will use tariffs as a sort of pretext to raise prices more generally? Is this sort of a scary place to be?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的。《纽约时报》最近指出，引用一下，“各种政治派别的民粹主义思想家认为，可能有理由担心价格欺诈。”所以斯图尔特，我要问你。你认为公司是否有可能以关税为借口更普遍地提高价格？这是否有点令人担忧？
Stuart Trew: It's so hard to tell, right? And we we've mentioned this on the already in the past few minutes that it's very difficult to know why certain things cost certain amounts. Um I think it's possible that price gouging um in some circumstances could be an issue and that could be simply that you know a company maybe pretends that a tariff applies when it doesn't you know and applies a 25% rate. I mean I again this is something that can be checked on on tarifftracker.ca if people want to be very vigilant about that but it's difficult difficult to tell. I mean certainly we saw evidence of certain elevated prices or maybe some opportunistic pricing um during the pandemic and the post-pandemic supply chain shocks right even after things had settled down a bit. Um so you know again it's hard to know when this is happening. I think this makes it extra important for government to be thinking about keeping an eye on companies and they can do that. Again, maybe we want to expand the powers of the competition bureau to look into things like that. But it's but it's hard to know is is the short answer.
***斯图尔特·特鲁：*这太难说了，对吧？我们过去几分钟已经提到过，很难知道为什么某些东西会花费一定的金额。嗯，我认为在某些情况下，价格欺诈可能是一个问题，这可能仅仅是因为，你知道，一家公司可能假装有关税适用而实际上没有，你知道，然后收取 25% 的费率。我的意思是，如果人们想对此非常警惕，这同样可以在 tarifftracker.ca 上查到，但这很难很难说。我的意思是，在疫情期间和疫情后供应链冲击期间，我们确实看到了一些价格上涨或可能是一些机会主义定价的证据，对吧，即使在情况有所稳定之后也是如此。嗯，所以你知道，再次强调，很难知道这种情况何时发生。我认为这使得政府考虑密切关注公司变得尤为重要，他们可以做到这一点。再说一次，也许我们想扩大竞争局的权力来调查这类事情。但简短的回答是，这很难知道。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Carl, if and when I think maybe getting ahead of myself here, if and when counter tariffs are lifted, is it likely that prices will come down again or is this what we can expect? Coffee are certainly one of those goods that are directly affected by tariffs. I mean, you know, bear in mind that a lot of the prices that have gone up are due to commodity change. That's certainly true with coffee. It's true with cocoa and that goes into chocolates. So, there are a bunch of other factors. And Tu, I'd certainly mentioned some of those. So, those wouldn't be directly affected. But with respect to the tariffs themselves being lifted, all other things being equal, certainly we would then see prices come down.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*卡尔，如果并且当——我想我可能有点操之过急了——如果并且当反制关税被取消时，价格是否有可能再次下降，或者这就是我们所能预期的？咖啡肯定是那些直接受关税影响的商品之一。我的意思是，你知道，要记住，很多上涨的价格是由于大宗商品的变化。咖啡肯定是这样。可可也是如此，可可用于制作巧克力。所以，还有很多其他因素。阮图，我肯定提到过其中一些。所以，那些不会直接受到影响。但是就关税本身被取消而言，在其他条件相同的情况下，我们肯定会看到价格下降。
Jeyan Jeganathan: And Tu, I am curious, do companies ever lower prices after certain pressures have been lifted?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*阮图，我很好奇，公司在某些压力解除后是否会降低价格？
Tu Nguyen: Well, I think it's rare in terms of food. Gasoline prices for sure goes up and down all the time according to global oil prices. With food and prices in general. So inflation refers to the rate of increase, right? When inflation goes down, we expect the rate of increase of prices to slow down. So for prices to stabilize rather than downright going down. In the case of tariff is possible but remember that a 25% tariffs on certain imports that's only a fraction of what ends up in the final price. That does not again include transportation cost, electricity, labor cost of having people in the grocery store and whatnot. So in the end that might lead to a 25% tariff might only result in a 5 to 8% increase in price of something. When that's removed, it's possible for grocery stores to lower the price. But again, it goes back to transparency and competition. We don't know if they actually do.
***阮图：*嗯，我认为就食品而言，这种情况很少见。汽油价格肯定会随着全球石油价格的波动而不断上下浮动。至于食品和总体价格。所以通货膨胀指的是增长率，对吧？当通货膨胀下降时，我们预计价格上涨的速度会减慢。所以价格会趋于稳定，而不是直接下降。就关税而言，这是可能的，但请记住，对某些进口商品征收 25% 的关税，这只是最终价格的一小部分。这还不包括运输成本、电力、在杂货店雇佣员工的劳动力成本等等。所以最终，25% 的关税可能只会导致商品价格上涨 5% 到 8%。当关税取消时，杂货店有可能降低价格。但这又回到了透明度和竞争的问题上。我们不知道他们是否真的会这样做。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright, Mike, I'll get your take on that as well.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的，迈克，我也想听听你的看法。
Mike von Massow: Well, I think we've seen evidence of prices coming down. If you look at the monthly rate rather than the annual rate, we saw dairy products came down in price last month. We've saw some other products come down in price in the last month. I think a perfect example of prices going up and down was olive oil a couple of years ago. The Mediterranean basin had a particularly bad year for olives. I think 60% yield reduction. So 40% production and so the price of olive oil went through the roof exacerbated by the war in Ukraine and and the loss of of sunflower oil. And since that time, last year was a much better year for olive oil and we've seen olive oil come down substantially in price. Is there some stickiness? No doubt. But I think if you look at them on a monthly basis, things do go up and down and that's probably not reflected in the aggregate number as much as it is reflected in individual things. We often forget that food price inflation is a blend of many many different products and some of those products go up and some of those products go down. on average they continue to go up, but I think there is evidence that we've seen some prices come down as factors have changed.
***迈克·冯·马索：*嗯，我认为我们已经看到了价格下降的证据。如果你看月度数据而不是年度数据，我们看到上个月乳制品价格下降了。我们看到上个月其他一些产品价格也下降了。我认为一个完美的价格涨跌例子是几年前的橄榄油。地中海盆地的橄榄收成特别差。我想产量减少了 60%。所以产量只有 40%，因此橄榄油价格飞涨，乌克兰战争和葵花籽油的损失加剧了这种情况。从那时起，去年的橄榄油收成要好得多，我们看到橄榄油价格大幅下降。是否存在一些粘性？毫无疑问。但我认为，如果你按月度来看，价格确实有涨有跌，这可能没有在总体数字中得到充分反映，但在个别商品中却有所体现。我们常常忘记，食品价格通胀是许多不同产品的混合体，其中一些产品价格上涨，一些产品价格下跌。平均而言，它们仍在继续上涨，但我认为有证据表明，随着因素的变化，我们已经看到一些价格下降了。
Future Outlook for Consumers / 消费者未来展望
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright, Stuart, I'm going to give you the last question. A bit of a hard one because I'm going to ask you to kind of look through your crystal ball, which I know is kind of hard to do in these unpredictable and uncertain times, but I'm hoping we can leave on some hope here for, you know, just for some consumers who are kind of getting caught up in these headlines left, right, and center. It changes every other day. Um but what can we expect you know kind of down from months or days down from here in terms of prices? You know we talk about a food insecurity crisis. This predates this Trump administration in January. But where do they go from here as consumers?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的，斯图尔特，最后一个问题留给你。这个问题有点难，因为我要请你展望一下未来，我知道在这些不可预测和不确定的时期这有点难，但我希望我们能给那些被这些铺天盖地的头条新闻弄得晕头转向的消费者们留一些希望。情况每天都在变。嗯，但是就价格而言，从现在起的几个月或几天后，我们能期待什么呢？你知道我们谈论粮食不安全危机。这早于一月份特朗普政府时期。但作为消费者，他们接下来该何去何从？
Stuart Trew: This is a really a tough question and it gets beyond food prices I think and it isn't one where we have I think a very optimistic view right of things. So food prices, yes, are high and seem to be growing, at least in the past few months, growing faster than inflation in other products, but the cost of living crisis in Canada is about more than food prices. And these tariffs, these retaliatory tariffs on US products and a limited number of areas of food, they are the least of our concerns, right, in terms of cost of living. Um there's a lot we need to be doing as a society to bring down other costs in our rental costs for example which are through the roof and as a factor of our expenses are much higher than they've ever been. Housing prices, energy has been high as well. So in terms of bringing those other costs down for Canadians that's the real challenge. Um if there is any bright side of this I go back to maybe the leverage that this court ruling in the states gives to maybe Canada, Mexico and others. There are efforts to bring down tariffs on across the board on other products like steel and aluminum and automobiles and maybe easing the trade tensions with the United States. That's going to um ease pressures that are on investment in Canada. Um investment by Canadian firms, by foreign firms into production, new jobs here in Canada. So really getting over that hump, I think we'll start to see the economy picking up a little bit more. Um, and that could have some bright news on the horizon.
***斯图尔特·特鲁：*这确实是一个棘手的问题，而且我认为它超出了食品价格的范畴，而且我认为我们对此并没有一个非常乐观的看法，对吧？所以，食品价格确实很高，而且似乎还在上涨，至少在过去几个月里，其上涨速度超过了其他产品的通货膨胀率，但加拿大的生活成本危机不仅仅是食品价格的问题。而这些关税，这些针对美国产品和少数食品领域的报复性关税，就生活成本而言，它们是我们最不担心的，对吧？嗯，作为一个社会，我们需要做很多事情来降低其他成本，例如我们的租金成本，租金已经高得离谱，而且作为我们支出的一部分，它们比以往任何时候都要高得多。房价、能源价格也一直很高。所以，就为加拿大人降低这些其他成本而言，这才是真正的挑战。嗯，如果这件事有任何积极的一面，我会回到美国法院的这项裁决可能给加拿大、墨西哥和其他国家带来的筹码。目前正在努力全面降低钢铁、铝和汽车等其他产品的关税，并可能缓和与美国的贸易紧张关系。这将缓解加拿大投资面临的压力。嗯，加拿大公司、外国公司对加拿大生产的投资、加拿大的新就业机会。所以，真正渡过这个难关之后，我想我们会开始看到经济有所好转。嗯，这可能会带来一些好消息。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Alright. Well, we are going to leave it there. I want to thank everyone so much. Karl, Stewart, Mike, Tu. Thank you so much for joining us and for your insights.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的。嗯，我们就到此为止吧。非常感谢大家。卡尔、斯图尔特、迈克、阮图。非常感谢你们的参与和 insightful 的见解。
All Guests (variously): Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you for having me. Have a great day.
所有嘉宾 (不同声音): 谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。谢谢邀请。祝你有个美好的一天。
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Dangerous Games: Roblox and the Metaverse Exposed / 危险游戏：Roblox 与元宇宙揭秘
Host / 主持人:
Steve Paikin (as per intro, though segment hosted by Jeyan Jeganathan) / 史蒂夫·帕金 (根据开场白，但此部分由杰扬·杰加纳坦主持)
Guests / 嘉宾:
Rachel Kowert / 雷切尔·科沃特: Founder of Psychgeist and visiting researcher at the University of Cambridge (Grimstad, Norway). / Psychgeist 创始人，剑桥大学访问研究员 (挪威格里姆斯塔)。
Jacquie Marcoux / 杰奎·马尔库: Director of Research and Analytics at the Canadian Centre for Child Protection (Winnipeg, Manitoba). / 加拿大儿童保护中心研究与分析总监 (马尼托巴省温尼伯)。
Ann Shin / 申安: The film's director and producer (In studio). / 影片导演兼制片人 (演播室嘉宾)。
Introduction to the Documentary / 纪录片介绍
Jeyan Jeganathan: Dangerous Games: Roblox and the Metaverse Exposed is a new TVO original documentary exploring the hidden dangers of online gaming. It follows three gamers as they investigate a network of extremists, predators, and illicit content in a game designed for children. Joining us to discuss the film and the consequences of gaming on youth, we welcome in Grimstad, Norway, Rachel Kowert. She is founder of Psychgeist and visiting researcher at the University of Cambridge. In Winnipeg, Manitoba, Jacquie Marcoux, director of research and analytics at the Canadian Centre for Child Protection. And with us here in our studio, Ann Shin. She is the film's director and producer. And it's great to have you back here on TVO. And to Rachel and Jacquie in Points Beyond, thanks for joining us as well. Ann, just for those who don't know, give us a rundown of what inspired you to want to make this film.
杰扬·杰加纳坦：《危险游戏：Roblox 与元宇宙揭秘》是一部全新的 TVO 原创纪录片，探讨了网络游戏的隐藏危险。它讲述了三名游戏玩家调查一个专为儿童设计的游戏中存在的极端分子、掠食者和非法内容网络的故事。今天我们邀请到挪威格里姆斯塔的雷切尔·科沃特，与我们讨论这部电影以及游戏对青少年的影响。她是 Psychgeist 的创始人，也是剑桥大学的访问研究员。在马尼托巴省温尼伯，加拿大儿童保护中心研究与分析总监杰奎·马尔库。以及与我们同在演播室的申安。她是这部电影的导演和制片人。很高兴再次在 TVO 见到你。也感谢远方的雷切尔和杰奎加入我们。申安，对于那些不了解的人，请给我们简要介绍一下是什么启发了你制作这部电影。
Ann Shin: So, uh, the producer I work with, Erica Linder, her kids were playing with an online game called Roblox, and she just wanted to do some reading up on it and found some disturbing reports about predators on the game as well as extremists recruiting people. So, she and I went online and we tried to get into the game as old people. It took us a while, but then once we were in the game, it took us maybe 3 minutes only to end up in a sex den. And this is an online game for kids. So, we got very alarmed and thought, "Wow, we really need to dig into this." And we found that there are some lawsuits. There have been lawsuits against Roblox and other platforms.
***申安：*嗯，与我合作的制片人埃里卡·林德，她的孩子们在玩一个叫做 Roblox 的网络游戏，她只是想查阅一些相关资料，结果发现了一些令人不安的报告，涉及游戏中的掠食者以及极端分子招募人员。所以，我和她上网，我们试图以老年人的身份进入游戏。我们花了一段时间，但一旦我们进入游戏，大概只用了 3 分钟就进入了一个色情场所。而这是一款针对儿童的网络游戏。所以，我们非常震惊，心想：“哇，我们真的需要深入调查这件事。”我们发现有一些诉讼。已经有针对 Roblox 和其他平台的诉讼。
Jeyan Jeganathan: How well known do you think this story is?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*你认为这个故事的知名度有多高？
Ann Shin: I think parents have been hearing more about it from kids and other youth and there are some lawsuits that have been launched against Roblox and other platforms. But I think people on the whole don't really know that this is a problem. They think when they're handing their tablet to their kid who's going to play an online game, it's just a game, right? They don't realize that it's a Pandora's box. It's like letting your child loose in the middle of a city alley. like there's no regulations or law enforcement happening on these metaverse platforms.
***申安：*我认为父母们从孩子和其他青少年那里听说了更多相关信息，并且已经有一些针对 Roblox 和其他平台的诉讼被提起。但我认为总体而言，人们并不真正了解这是一个问题。他们认为，当他们把平板电脑交给孩子玩网络游戏时，那只是一场游戏，对吧？他们没有意识到那是一个潘多拉的盒子。这就像把你的孩子放任在一个城市小巷的中央。这些元宇宙平台上没有任何监管或执法。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Rachel, what made you want to get involved in this?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*雷切尔，是什么让你想参与其中？
Rachel Kowert: Oh, I read some research a few years ago that talked about how prevalent these kind of incidents actually are and I felt like no one was talking about it and I felt like what Ann said that parents don't really know how extreme the dangers can be in these spaces.
***雷切尔·科沃特：*哦，几年前我读到一些研究，谈到这类事件实际上有多普遍，我感觉没有人谈论它，而且我感觉就像申安说的，父母们并不真正了解这些空间中的危险有多么极端。
Jeyan Jeganathan: That's my impression is that is that we sort of fear this stuff is all possible but not really. We don't necessarily think it's going to happen to our kid. Is that your understanding?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*我的印象是，我们似乎担心这些事情都有可能发生，但又不太相信。我们不一定认为这会发生在我们的孩子身上。这是你的理解吗？
Rachel Kowert: Absolutely. I mean, I think we talk a lot about cyber bullying, which is also awful and has a lot of consequences, but we don't really talk about what this looks like on the extreme end of things.
***雷切尔·科沃特：*当然。我的意思是，我认为我们谈论了很多网络欺凌，那也很糟糕，并且有很多后果，但我们并没有真正谈论在极端情况下这会是什么样子。
Prevalence and Nature of Online Dangers / 网络危险的普遍性与性质
Jeyan Jeganathan: Jacques, tell us about your mission at the Canadian Centre for Child Protection. What do you do?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*杰奎，告诉我们你在加拿大儿童保护中心的使命。你做什么工作？
Jacquie Marcoux: So, we operate Cybertip.ca. This is Canada's national tip line for reporting online sexual exploitation. We operate the tip line on behalf of Public Safety Canada who funds our organization. And what I'm hearing here is not shocking to me or to my team at all. We're on the front lines of this issue. We get thousands of calls from Canadian kids and families per year. This isn't unique to Roblox and it is true that there's a bit of a false sense of security on some of these platforms where parents assume that it's safe. And I always like to remind people that whatever number you see out there, whatever statistics we see, that's the tip of the iceberg because if we have five kids reporting into us in a week, there's probably 50 who have not come forward and who have not told anyone about this.
***杰奎·马尔库：*我们运营 Cybertip.ca。这是加拿大举报网络性剥削的国家举报热线。我们代表加拿大公共安全部运营这条热线，该部门为我们的组织提供资金。我在这里听到的对我或我的团队来说一点也不令人震惊。我们处在这个问题的前线。我们每年都会接到数千个来自加拿大儿童和家庭的电话。这并非 Roblox 独有，而且确实在某些平台上存在一种虚假的安全感，父母们认为这些平台是安全的。我总是想提醒人们，无论你在外面看到什么数字，无论我们看到什么统计数据，那都只是冰山一角，因为如果我们一周内有五个孩子向我们举报，那么可能还有 50 个孩子没有站出来，也没有告诉任何人这件事。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Did I hear you right? Did you say thousands of calls a year?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*我没听错吧？你是一年接到几千个电话吗？
Jacquie Marcoux: Yeah. So, we get several, we get hundreds of calls per week. So just on Roblox alone. I ran the numbers before we gathered here and in the past 2 years we received 196 reports where the victim cited Roblox as being one of the tech platforms that was part and parcel of their exploitation. This includes like 12-year-olds who were being asked for their home addresses. It includes truth or dare type games where nude images were exchanged with an offender. So, this happens on the daily.
***杰奎·马尔库：*是的。所以，我们每周会接到好几个，几百个电话。所以单单 Roblox 就有。在我们聚集在这里之前我查了一下数据，在过去两年里，我们收到了 196 份报告，受害者称 Roblox 是导致他们受到剥削的科技平台之一。这包括像 12 岁的孩子被索要家庭住址。也包括真心话大冒险类型的游戏，其中与罪犯交换了裸照。所以，这种事情每天都在发生。
Jeyan Jeganathan: And let's just understand because I'm sure lots of people watching this or listening have never heard of Roblox before. This is R O B L O X. That's right. Where does the name come from?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*让我们先了解一下，因为我确定很多观看或收听的人以前从未听说过 Roblox。这是 R O B L O X。没错。这个名字从何而来？
Ann Shin: Um I actually don't know where the name comes from.
***申安：*嗯，我其实不知道这个名字的来源。
Jacquie Marcoux: I don't either. Yeah. But it's it's a it's a game where it's like virtual Lego. You can build your own house. You have little Lego avatars. And that's where the problems arise because you're meeting other avatars in the space. The avatar might tell you, "I'm a 15-year-old boy." Meanwhile, he could be a 43-year-old man. So, there's really no way to know who you're online with.
***杰奎·马尔库：*我也不知道。是的。但它是一款像虚拟乐高一样的游戏。你可以建造自己的房子。你拥有小小的乐高化身。问题就出在这里，因为你会在这个空间里遇到其他的化身。那个化身可能会告诉你：“我是一个 15 岁的男孩。”但与此同时，他可能是一个 43 岁的男人。所以，真的没有办法知道你和谁在网上。
Ann Shin: No. And that's why these are platforms where it's attractive to kids and attractive to other people as well who might be interested in areas where kids congregate. Katie is the character, I mean, one of the protagonists in your film. Tell us about Katie and her experience.
***申安：*不。这就是为什么这些平台对孩子们有吸引力，对那些可能对孩子们聚集的领域感兴趣的其他人也有吸引力。凯蒂是你电影中的角色，我是说，主角之一。给我们讲讲凯蒂和她的经历。
Ann Shin: Katie is a young woman now, but as a early teen, she had befriended a developer on Roblox. His name he went by the handle Dr. Robotnik. She really liked the game Sonic or the movie Sonic. And there was a game on Roblox that was developed by Dr. Robotnik that recreated the Sonic experience.
***申安：*凯蒂现在是个年轻女子，但在她十几岁的时候，她在 Roblox 上结识了一位开发者。他的网名是蛋头博士 (Dr. Robotnik)。她非常喜欢索尼克游戏或索尼克电影。Roblox 上有一款由蛋头博士开发的游戏，重现了索尼克的体验。
Jeyan Jeganathan: The Sonic the Hedgehog. Is that who we're talking about?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*刺猬索尼克。我们说的是他吗？
Ann Shin: That's right. Sonic the Hedgehog. Yeah. And so, she loved, she really liked the game. She befriended him. She was so chuffed and pleased that the developer of this really popular Roblox game gave her time. And they hit it off. And the next thing you know, he was like sending her like digital gloves for drawing online, like sending her gifts from Amazon and trying to like groom her. Um, she started getting very uncomfortable when they were texting and it turned to sexting and he would say really rude and sometimes very violent things to her about what he wanted to do to her.
***申安：*没错。刺猬索尼克。是的。所以，她很喜欢，她非常喜欢这款游戏。她和他交了朋友。她非常高兴和得意，这款非常受欢迎的 Roblox 游戏的开发者肯花时间在她身上。他们一拍即合。接下来你知道的，他就像给她寄了用于在线绘画的数码手套，从亚马逊给她寄礼物，试图引诱她。嗯，当他们发短信，然后变成色情短信时，她开始感到非常不舒服，他会对她说一些非常粗鲁，有时甚至是非常暴力的话，关于他想对她做什么。
Jeyan Jeganathan: And how old was she at the time?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*她当时多大？
Ann Shin: I think she was 12 when she met him.
***申安：*我想她遇见他的时候是 12 岁。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Rachel, how common is this?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*雷切尔，这种情况有多普遍？
Rachel Kowert: It's more common than we think. As was just said by the other guest, research says only 1 to 2% of people report this is happening. Just generally across games when something disruptive happens, only 1 to 2% reporting so more than we think.
***雷切尔·科沃特：*这比我们想象的更普遍。正如另一位嘉宾刚才所说，研究表明只有 1% 到 2% 的人报告这种情况正在发生。一般来说，在游戏中发生破坏性事件时，只有 1% 到 2% 的人报告，所以比我们想象的要多。
Jacquie Marcoux: And just to add, just sorry, just to add to what Rachel said, Snapchat and a couple of other tech companies have released their own internal research that suggests that upwards of two-thirds of teenagers know someone or they have personally been targeted in these types of ways online. This is, these are the numbers we're dealing with. It's incredibly high. I would say that if you talk to any teenager in your life, boy, girl, in any Canadian high school, they all have stories. Every single one of them.
***杰奎·马尔库：*补充一下，抱歉，只是补充一下雷切尔刚才说的，Snapchat 和其他几家科技公司发布了他们自己的内部研究，表明超过三分之二的青少年认识某人，或者他们个人曾在网上以这些方式成为目标。这就是，这就是我们正在处理的数字。它高得令人难以置信。我想说，如果你和你生活中的任何青少年交谈，男孩，女孩，在任何加拿大的高中，他们都有故事。每一个都有。
The Offender's Modus Operandi / 作案者的作案手法
Jeyan Jeganathan: You say targeted. Is there, I mean, how does the offender, the alleged offender, have any idea who he, I'm going to say he because it's almost always he, who he's communicating with.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*你说“成为目标”。我的意思是，作案者，或者说被指控的作案者，他怎么知道他在和谁交流——我说“他”是因为几乎总是男性。
Jacquie Marcoux: So the first thing to know about these types of scams is that offenders go where the kids are. So there's this misconception sometimes that online offending happens in these dark unknown corners of the internet, but it actually happens primarily in plain sight on mainstream platforms that millions of Canadian kids have on their devices. And it often plays out across a number of platforms. So places like Roblox are often just the gateway to connect. It's like a phone book on where you can connect with children and offenders will target hundreds of them at the same time and invariably a certain percentage of kids will fall for it. And then often they then get moved to another platform where they could maybe engage in a more private conversation like on WhatsApp or Signal or some encrypted chat platform. So it often plays out across multiple platforms and offenders know what the gaps are, what the moderation gaps are and they leverage those gaps to hop around and not be and and not have those interactions be intercepted. So that's really how it plays out.
***杰奎·马尔库：*所以，关于这类骗局，首先要知道的是，作案者会去孩子们聚集的地方。所以有时会有这样一种误解，认为网络犯罪发生在互联网上那些黑暗未知的角落，但实际上它主要发生在数百万加拿大孩子设备上的主流平台上，而且是光天化日之下。而且它通常会跨越多个平台进行。所以像 Roblox 这样的地方通常只是一个连接的入口。它就像一本电话簿，你可以在上面联系到孩子，而作案者会同时针对数百个孩子，总会有一定比例的孩子上当。然后他们通常会被转移到另一个平台，在那里他们可能会进行更私密的对话，比如在 WhatsApp、Signal 或其他一些加密聊天平台上。所以它通常会跨越多个平台进行，作案者知道漏洞在哪里，监管的漏洞在哪里，他们会利用这些漏洞四处游走，不被发现，并且不让这些互动被拦截。所以这基本上就是它的运作方式。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Rachel, can you follow up on that? In as much as I mean this seems like a breeding ground for exactly the kind of thing that parents would not want to see. How does that happen?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*雷切尔，你能就此跟进吗？我的意思是，这似乎正是父母不愿看到的那种事情的滋生地。这是怎么发生的？
Rachel Kowert: It's really difficult because as was just mentioned, it's a funnel. So you put out a comment and you see who laughs or you see who reacts and then slowly you funnel down into finding the vulnerable population. And what makes it extra difficult is from the outside looking in, it looks like someone making friends. It feels good. It feels nice to have someone give you attention just like we were talking about with Katie. And then it quickly turns and by time it turns, it's difficult to know where to turn for help.
***雷切尔·科沃特：*这真的很难，因为正如刚才提到的，这是一个漏斗。所以你发表一条评论，然后看看谁笑了，或者看看谁有反应，然后慢慢地你就会筛选出易受攻击的人群。而让事情变得更加困难的是，从外部看，这看起来像是在交朋友。感觉很好。有人关注你感觉很好，就像我们谈论凯蒂时一样。然后情况很快就会转变，到转变的时候，就很难知道该向哪里寻求帮助了。
Parental Involvement and Understanding / 父母的参与和理解
Jeyan Jeganathan: The friend that you, you know, discovered this all with in the original episode that you told me about where, you know, in three minutes you were in and you'd figured out what was going on. Yes. How did she handle things once she realized what was going on?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*你提到的那个朋友，就是你最初告诉我的那个事件中，和你一起发现这一切的人，你知道，三分钟之内你就进去了，并且弄清楚了发生了什么。是的。当她意识到发生了什么之后，她是如何处理的？
Ann Shin: Well, what she did was Erica Linder, who was the producer of this film, made sure that her kids didn't have access to the chat apps and she told and she informed them about it. And I think that's one of the steps that parents can take where they get involved with the games that the kids are playing so they know where they're playing and what they're doing. It's like literally I mean there's a million there's a 100 million users on Roblox a day. They're all creating these environments all over the world I presume. Yes. Exactly. So when you release a child into this environment, it's like letting them into this mega city alone at night. You wouldn't do that in the real world. So why would a parent why should a parent do that you know in the virtual world? So get involved with the kids and play the games and also monitor who they're talking with and what kinds of experiences they're getting into.
***申安：*嗯，她所做的是，这部电影的制片人埃里卡·林德，确保她的孩子们无法访问聊天应用程序，并且她告诉并告知了他们这件事。我认为这是父母可以采取的步骤之一，即参与孩子们正在玩的游戏，这样他们就知道孩子们在哪里玩以及在做什么。我的意思是，Roblox 每天有百万，甚至上亿的用户。我推测他们都在世界各地创造这些环境。是的。完全正确。所以当你把一个孩子放到这样的环境中，就像让他们独自在夜晚进入这个特大城市一样。你在现实世界中不会这样做。那么为什么父母，为什么父母应该在虚拟世界中这样做呢？所以要参与孩子们的生活，和他们一起玩游戏，并监控他们和谁交谈以及他们正在经历什么样的体验。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Do the kids have any sense about I mean this experience that you referenced seem to get dark very quickly. Yes. Do the kids understand sort of the difference between what's real and what's very problematic here? The distance between what's in real life and what's online virtual is very thin for a lot of the gamers and a lot of the people who find their real communities online. So how they are as avatars is like how they see themselves they some kids often see themselves as better expressed in the online world. So whatever happens to their avatar there it's like it's happening to their body it's like they're happening to them.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*孩子们对你提到的这种经历有什么感觉吗？我的意思是，这种经历似乎很快就变得黑暗起来。是的。孩子们能理解现实与这里非常成问题的虚拟世界之间的区别吗？对于许多游戏玩家和许多在网上找到真实社区的人来说，现实生活和在线虚拟世界之间的界限非常模糊。所以他们作为化身的形象就像他们看待自己的方式，有些孩子常常认为自己在网络世界中能更好地表达自己。所以无论他们的化身在那里发生什么，都像是发生在了他们自己身上，像是发生在他们自己身上。
Jeyan Jeganathan: So Rachel, that's a pretty I mean that's a pretty tough thing for a parent to fight if there's this alternative universe where a child can realize some ambitions or aspirations that they perhaps don't get at school where things are all too real. What are parents and kids supposed to do about that?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*所以雷切尔，我的意思是，如果存在这样一个另类宇宙，孩子可以在那里实现一些在学校可能无法实现的抱负或愿望——学校里的一切都太真实了——那么这对父母来说是一件相当棘手的事情。父母和孩子对此应该怎么做？
Rachel Kowert: I think it is truly about talking with your children and understanding that it is a false dichotomy and that online and offline they're very fluid. So instead of thinking about online games as like this separate space where my kids are and I don't really understand or it's not important or it doesn't matter, we can't think like that anymore. That's not what the reality is in the 21st century. So we have to talk to our children about what are you doing and who are you talking to just like you would what are you doing at school and who are you playing with. It's the same.
***雷切尔·科沃特：*我认为这确实在于与你的孩子交谈，并理解这是一种错误的二分法，线上和线下是非常流动的。因此，我们不能再像以前那样认为网络游戏是孩子们所在的独立空间，我不理解，或者不重要，或者无所谓。21 世纪的现实并非如此。所以我们必须和我们的孩子谈论他们在做什么，和谁说话，就像你会问他们在学校做什么，和谁一起玩一样。这是一样的。
Jeyan Jeganathan: That will shock I assume take some training for parents who are accustomed to handing the iPad to the kid and saying go over there and make yourself useful for the next hour and leave me alone. Right? We got to take a different approach here.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*我想这会让那些习惯了把 iPad 交给孩子，然后说“去那边玩一个小时，别烦我”的父母感到震惊，他们需要一些培训。对吧？我们在这里需要采取不同的方法。
The Platform's Responsibility / 平台的责任
Jacquie Marcoux: Yeah. My organization has really pushed back against this drive to download the responsibility to be safe onto end users. So tech companies like to present solutions as being the sole responsibility of children and adults to be safe within these environments that they create. They make conscious design decisions on how they make these systems and they are inherently dangerous in many ways for many people, especially children. But when it comes time to tell the public that they're doing work to solve these problems, invariably it's always more work on adults. It would be like if we designed dangerous vehicles and instead of having a recall and fixing the problem, we simply made a PSA to teach people how to drive the vehicle in such a way that it won't explode or the wheel won't fall off. That's what's happening right now instead of having for example laws that would require companies to ensure that the services they make available to kids in Canada or adults are safe to begin with from the ground up when they design it.
***杰奎·马尔库：*是的。我的组织一直在强烈反对这种将安全责任推卸给最终用户的做法。所以科技公司喜欢将解决方案呈现为儿童和成年人在他们创造的这些环境中确保安全的唯一责任。他们有意识地设计这些系统，并且这些系统在很多方面对许多人，特别是儿童，都具有固有的危险性。但是当需要告诉公众他们正在努力解决这些问题时，总是会给成年人带来更多的工作。这就好比我们设计了危险的车辆，但我们不是召回并解决问题，而是简单地制作了一个公益广告，教人们如何驾驶车辆以使其不会爆炸或车轮不会脱落。这就是现在正在发生的事情，而不是例如制定法律要求公司确保他们向加拿大儿童或成年人提供的服务从设计之初就是安全的。
Jeyan Jeganathan: And Jacquie, a quick followup. What percentage of offenders here, I guess, is that what you call them or what what do you call them?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*杰奎，一个快速的追问。这里的作案者，我想，你们是这么称呼他们的吗，或者你们怎么称呼他们？
Jacquie Marcoux: We call them offenders most of the time. Offenders. Okay. What percentage of them do you think get caught?
***杰奎·马尔库：*我们大多数时候称他们为作案者。作案者。好的。你认为他们中有多少比例会被抓住？
Jacquie Marcoux: It's incredibly small. Um the reality is that a lot of offenders aren't on Canadian soil. Um if I take the example of online sextortion, which has impacted tens of thousands of Canadians over the past two years, um most of these offenders are part of organized crime groups in Nigeria. This is specific to financial extortion. A lot of times the offenders aren't on Canadian soil. If we look at the poster child for this, Amanda Todd, the offender was in Europe and that took a decade and millions of dollars in resources to try one single person. But this happens hundreds of times a day. So the reality is that the clearance rates for these when it falls in the lap of law enforcement is incredibly low. And it's in part because it's not because police aren't doing their work. It's because it's almost impossible to do. You have companies who hold all the cards. They have all the data. Um it's very difficult for Canadian police to get a production order for a company that may be hosted in Eastern Europe or somewhere in the US. Uh and then to track down an offender that may be abroad. So going to police and expecting to resolve these issues through a crime and justice perspective or approach is simply not going to work. We can't police our way out of this problem.
***杰奎·马尔库：*这个比例非常小。嗯，现实是很多作案者并不在加拿大境内。嗯，如果我以网络性勒索为例，过去两年中，这已经影响了数万加拿大人，嗯，这些作案者大多是尼日利亚有组织犯罪集团的成员。这特指金融勒索。很多时候作案者并不在加拿大境内。如果我们看看这个问题的典型案例，阿曼达·托德，作案者在欧洲，花了十年时间和数百万美元的资源才审判了一个人。但这种事情每天发生数百次。所以现实是，当这些案件落到执法部门手中时，侦破率非常低。这部分原因不是因为警察没有尽职尽责，而是因为这几乎是不可能完成的任务。有些公司掌握着所有王牌。他们拥有所有数据。嗯，加拿大警方很难从一家可能位于东欧或美国某地的公司获得生产令。然后追踪一个可能在国外的作案者。所以，求助于警方并期望通过犯罪和司法的角度或方法来解决这些问题，是根本行不通的。我们无法通过警力来解决这个问题。
Real-World Consequences and Radicalization / 现实世界的后果与激进化
Jeyan Jeganathan: And let's do another example from your film. Jana, another one of the people that you profile. Tell us Jana's story.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*让我们再举一个你电影中的例子。贾娜，你介绍的另一个人。给我们讲讲贾娜的故事。
Ann Shin: Jana was a Minecraft player. She's a young black woman who lives in Florida. And every time she would spawn herself into a game in Minecraft, get born into a game. She found herself getting killed and it's called a spawn killing when people just jump on you for no reason and kill you right as you start a game. And that was when she was wearing her avatar, like her avatar was wearing a black skin. So what she did was she tried playing with a white skin. She found she was not being spawn killed anymore. This was so upsetting to her that she started up a group called Black Minecraft and she created a space for other black Minecraft players that was safe. They could talk there, gather, and it became a real community. So, this is a real testament to how there's strong and positive things happening in these, you know, metaverse spaces as well. There's, you know, these community groups created for black Minecraft players to meet and kind of talk and and tell each other their experiences.
***申安：*贾娜是一名《我的世界》(Minecraft) 玩家。她是一位住在佛罗里达州的年轻黑人女性。每次她在《我的世界》中生成角色进入游戏时，也就是在游戏中“出生”时，她都会发现自己被杀死，这被称为“出生点秒杀”，即人们毫无理由地在你刚开始游戏时就攻击并杀死你。而这种情况发生在她使用黑色皮肤的化身时。所以她尝试使用白色皮肤的化身进行游戏。她发现自己不再被出生点秒杀了。这件事让她非常沮丧，于是她创建了一个名为“Black Minecraft”的群组，为其他黑人《我的世界》玩家创造了一个安全的空间。他们可以在那里交谈、聚集，并形成了一个真正的社区。所以，这真实地证明了在这些，你知道的，元宇宙空间中也发生着强大而积极的事情。你知道，这些社区群组是为黑人《我的世界》玩家创建的，让他们可以见面、交谈并分享彼此的经历。
Jeyan Jeganathan: So, the child abuse wasn't enough. They had to be racist as well.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*所以，虐待儿童还不够。他们还必须是种族主义者。
Ann Shin: Yeah. Yeah. Well, everything you get in real life, you get online, but even more so because everyone's hiding behind the anonymity of their avatars.
***申安：*是的。是的。嗯，你在现实生活中遇到的一切，在网上也会遇到，甚至更糟，因为每个人都躲在他们化身的匿名性背后。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Rachel, the film brings up and people I think in southern Ontario will remember this because it was just a few years ago, few years ago this month I think, a horrific mass shooting that took place in Buffalo, New York. 10 people killed in a grocery store and the shooter actually blamed his own personal radicalization on a game in Roblox. How does that happen?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*雷切尔，电影提到了，我想安大略省南部的人们会记得这件事，因为那只是几年前的事，我想是几年前的这个月，在纽约州布法罗发生了一起可怕的大规模枪击事件。10 人在一家杂货店被杀，枪手实际上将他个人的激进化归咎于 Roblox 中的一款游戏。这是怎么发生的？
Rachel Kowert: Oh, that is a big question for a small answer. how what happens is that these spaces like Ann was saying they reflect real life but you're also in this bubble of online disinhibition so you have this veil of anonymity nobody knows me nobody sees me and you can quickly fall into these dark corners where you feel there are little to no repercussions and if you fall down that funnel we call it's also a funnel just like for grooming it's a radicalization funnel it becomes amplified like an echo chamber on these corners of the internet and that then in some cases, in extreme cases, translates into real world action.
***雷切尔·科沃特：*哦，这是一个大问题，但答案却很简单。发生的情况是，正如安所说，这些空间反映了现实生活，但你同时也处在这个网络去抑制的泡沫中，所以你拥有这种匿名的面纱，没有人认识我，没有人看到我，你可以很快陷入这些黑暗的角落，在那里你感觉几乎没有或根本没有不良后果，如果你掉进那个我们称之为漏斗的地方——它也是一个漏斗，就像用于诱骗的漏斗一样，这是一个激进化漏斗——它会在互联网的这些角落里像回声室一样被放大，然后在某些情况下，在极端情况下，会转化为现实世界的行动。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Jacques, I think those of us in Canada would like to think that this is a more American than Canadian phenomenon because that is a culture that's actually a lot more extreme than we are. I see you shaking your head already. Not the case.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*杰奎，我想我们加拿大人更愿意认为这是一种美国现象而非加拿大现象，因为那是一种实际上比我们极端得多的文化。我看到你已经在摇头了。事实并非如此。
Jacquie Marcoux: The kids, I mean, the internet is a it's a global it's a global tool. It's a global tool. There are no borders. It's it's what makes it rich in information, but it's also what makes it incredibly difficult to control, to regulate, to ensure it's safe. Um, and so yeah, there's the solutions aren't obvious, but what we do know is that the solutions that are being proposed right now that often come from a self an unregulated but a self apparently self-regulated industry makes it such that a lot of these issues just go unresolved repeatedly.
***杰奎·马尔库：*孩子们，我的意思是，互联网是一个全球性的工具。它是一个全球性的工具。没有国界。这使得它信息丰富，但也使得它极难控制、监管和确保安全。嗯，所以是的，解决方案并不明显，但我们确实知道，目前提出的解决方案通常来自一个自我监管——一个不受监管但显然是自我监管的行业——这使得许多这些问题反复得不到解决。
Doxing and Its Psychological Impact / Doxing 及其心理影响
Jeyan Jeganathan: Okay, we're going to talk about a word that I know all the kids use and that all the adults don't understand. So, here we go. The word is doxing and this comes up in the documentary and we're going to show a clip here and then we'll come back and chat. Sheldon, if you would from Dangerous Games,
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好的，我们接下来要谈论一个我知道所有孩子都在用，而所有成年人都不懂的词。那么，我们开始吧。这个词是“doxing”，它在纪录片中出现过，我们现在要播放一个片段，然后我们再回来讨论。谢尔顿，如果你愿意，请播放《危险游戏》中的片段。
Clip from "Dangerous Games": Roblox has been such a whirlwind for me in that sense that it's like contributed to my mental health issues. Like, it's really has tried to end my life multiple times over Roblox. Really? Yeah. The hate got really bad. It's not your fault. It really sucks when um when you do decide to go ahead and tell people and it's about a content creator that everybody else likes. Yeah. Um and then you think and then they think you're trying to cancel them. Those people don't they don't understand what it's like to be playing a game and get harassed in your game every single time you play or what it's like for somebody to use a game to try to lure you and try to harm you. Yeah. you know, why is this a normal thing and why do we keep on allowing it? There needs to be more talks on what are we going to allow and what are we not going to allow in the virtual space and if somebody does violate that, what consequence is it going to be?
***《危险游戏》片段：*从某种意义上说，Roblox 对我来说就像一场旋风，它加剧了我的心理健康问题。就像，它真的多次试图通过 Roblox 结束我的生命。真的吗？是的。仇恨变得非常严重。这不是你的错。当你决定告诉别人，而这件事关乎一个其他人都喜欢的内容创作者时，感觉真的很糟糕。是的。嗯，然后你认为，然后他们认为你想毁掉他们。那些人不明白，每次玩游戏都在游戏中受到骚扰是什么感觉，或者有人利用游戏试图引诱你并伤害你是什么感觉。是的。你知道，为什么这会成为一种正常现象，为什么我们一直允许它发生？我们需要更多地讨论在虚拟空间中我们允许什么，不允许什么，如果有人违反了这些规定，将会产生什么后果？
Jeyan Jeganathan: Good questions. She should go into journalism. Those are good questions. Doxing, what is d o xx i n g? What is that?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*好问题。她应该去做新闻。这些都是好问题。“Doxing”，d o x x i n g 是什么意思？那是什么？
Ann Shin: It's when people will take your personal details and publicize it to everybody including your address, your phone number, your identity with the idea to expose you but also to enable and incite harassment. People have had SWAT teams called on them in their homes. It's a false call. Light versions of that might be getting pizzas, like 100 pizzas delivered to your home and that kind of thing. But doxing can be it's like trolling times 100 because you're being targeted in your real life home and in and in your identity.
***申安：*就是指人们获取你的个人详细信息并将其公之于众，包括你的地址、电话号码、身份信息，目的是为了曝光你，同时也为了促成和煽动骚扰。有人曾在家中被虚假报警引来特警队 (SWAT)。这是一种虚假报警。轻微的版本可能是有人订购披萨，比如 100 个披萨送到你家之类的事情。但人肉搜索 (doxing) 就像是 100 倍强度的网络挑衅 (trolling)，因为你在现实生活中的家和你的身份都成为了攻击目标。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Yeah. And Rachel, the psychological ramifications of being doxed can be what?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*是的。雷切尔，被人肉搜索的心理后果会是什么？
Rachel Kowert: Uh long-term post-traumatic stress disorder. At the most extreme cases, doxing is a serious threat to someone's life. If you mistakenly, not mistakenly, if you call a SWAT team on someone under false pretenses, that can lead to loss of life, it's incredibly traumatic. And again, it goes back to this idea that what's happening in these spaces doesn't just magically live in these spaces. They impact you in all of the ways that you walk through life.
***雷切尔·科沃特：*呃，长期的创伤后应激障碍。在最极端的情况下，人肉搜索对某人的生命构成严重威胁。如果你错误地，不，不是错误地，如果你以虚假借口呼叫特警队到某人家中，这可能导致生命损失，这是极其创伤性的。再说一次，这又回到了那个观点，即在这些空间发生的事情并不仅仅神奇地存在于这些空间中。它们会以你生活中的各种方式影响你。
Seeking Help and Platform Accountability / 寻求帮助与平台问责
Jeyan Jeganathan: Jacquie, in this film, the girls actually try to solve these issues and these problems on their own. Is that the right approach to take in your view?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*杰奎，在这部电影中，女孩们实际上试图自己解决这些问题。在你看来，这是正确的做法吗？
Jacquie Marcoux: We get, it saddens me that that's the case that kids feel like that's what they have to do. And we hear that all the time from kids where they self police. They get doxed their intimate images are distributed online. They self police. We've had kids pretend to be lawyers, send fake legal demands that they found online to companies in an attempt to get content removed. So, we hear about this all the time. Those kids, I want them to know that there are resources. There are people who can help. It's important that they tell someone that they trust. It can be a parent, it can be a teacher, it can be police, it can be a tip line like us who are there to help. But it's important that these cases get onto the radar. It's important that we understand the prevalence of these cases and these kids shouldn't I really do not think that any kid should have to go at this alone because this is just an incredibly traumatic experience for them and it follows them along for a long time. It can have lifelong consequences for a lot of kids.
***杰奎·马尔库：*我们了解到，孩子们感觉自己必须这样做，这让我感到难过。我们经常从孩子们那里听到他们自我约束的情况。他们被人肉搜索，他们的私密照片在网上被传播。他们自我约束。我们曾见过孩子们假装成律师，将在网上找到的虚假法律要求发送给公司，试图让内容被删除。所以，我们一直听说这类事情。那些孩子，我希望他们知道有资源可以利用。有人可以提供帮助。重要的是他们要告诉他们信任的人。可以是父母，可以是老师，可以是警察，也可以是像我们这样的举报热线，我们随时准备提供帮助。但重要的是让这些案件引起关注。重要的是我们要了解这些案件的普遍性，这些孩子不应该——我真的不认为任何孩子应该独自面对这些，因为这对他们来说是一次极其创伤性的经历，并且会长期困扰他们。对很多孩子来说，这可能会产生终身后果。
Jeyan Jeganathan: And what do we know about whether or not parental complaints against Roblox have been heard and attended to by that company?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*那么我们对 Roblox 公司是否听取并处理了家长们的投诉了解多少呢？
Ann Shin: So, they have been heard. Recently, Roblox created changes where the parental control. they they created a like a an access point for parents to see who the kids are chatting with and also what experiences they're um getting into, what kinds of rooms and experiences they're getting access to. So they enhance the parental controls on the platform, but they themselves Roblox hasn't created hasn't, you know, hired more human moderators to moderate all these spaces that exist. and an important chat app, Discord, where a lot of the grooming continues, has not done anything to change um the level of security or safety that's addressed, safety or security concerns for kids.
***申安：*所以，他们确实听取了意见。最近，Roblox 做出了一些改变，涉及家长控制。他们创建了一个类似接入点的地方，让家长可以看到孩子们在和谁聊天，以及他们正在参与什么样的体验，进入什么样的房间和体验。所以他们增强了平台上的家长控制功能，但 Roblox 本身并没有，你知道，雇用更多的人工版主来管理所有这些存在的空间。而一个重要的聊天应用 Discord，很多诱骗行为仍在继续，却没有采取任何措施来改变其安全级别，以解决儿童的安全或安保问题。
Legislative Action and Future Hopes / 立法行动与未来希望
Jeyan Jeganathan: Rachel, what would you say in terms of whether more legislation/regulation is needed here? Do you think that can do anything?
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*雷切尔，你认为这里是否需要更多的立法/监管？你认为这能起到作用吗？
Rachel Kowert: I do think legislation can make change and I think it already is with the online safety act and the kids online safety act being discussed in Canada as well as as other countries around the globe. I think it has led to changes already like the ones that Ann has mentioned. I think it's also important to understand that it is such a scale issue. So, I don't know if like more parental controls are obviously great, but it's going to take a really big kind of revolution in terms of thinking about how to design these spaces to be safer and how can we go about providing resources for when these kinds of things do happen.
***雷切尔·科沃特：*我确实认为立法可以带来改变，而且我认为随着加拿大以及全球其他国家正在讨论的《网络安全法》和《儿童网络安全法》，它已经在产生影响。我认为它已经带来了一些变化，就像安提到的那样。我认为同样重要的是要理解这是一个规模问题。所以，我不知道更多的家长控制是否显然很好，但在思考如何设计这些空间使其更安全，以及当这类事情发生时我们如何提供资源方面，这将需要一场真正意义上的革命。
Jeyan Jeganathan: And follow up on that if you would because I think at the well I shouldn't give away the ending here. What the hell? I'm giving away the ending. You you say in the film that we had a bill that was designed to deal with this in Parliament. Parliament of course got prorogued. We had an election. Okay, we're back to square one with this now.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*如果你愿意，请跟进一下，因为我认为——好吧，我不应该在这里剧透结局。管他呢，我要剧透了。你在电影中说，议会曾有一项旨在处理此事的法案。当然，议会休会了。我们举行了选举。好吧，我们现在又回到了原点。
Ann Shin: Yes, we are back to square one because the online harm safety act in Canada has been it was developed but it's not passed and the kids online safety act in the states was passed in the house but it didn't pass in the senate and in both countries there's been problems because there are lobbyists who talking about that the difficulties in enhancing like content control for platforms if platforms are going to censor certain types of material what might prevent them from censoring other types of material for political motivations and so the debate around this has been complex but I think Rachel is right in saying that you know at least we're being more vocal about it and platforms are being more aware but we really we really do need to the legislation law needs to catch up to technology like as we know with AI law has been very lagging it's behind in terms of catching up to the technology and we're hoping that these bills will pass soon this is a in so many sectors and technology is winning almost every time.
***申安：*是的，我们又回到了原点，因为加拿大的《网络危害安全法》虽然已经制定但尚未通过，而美国的《儿童网络安全法》虽然在众议院通过，但未在参议院通过。在这两个国家都存在问题，因为有游说者在谈论加强平台内容控制的困难，如果平台要审查某些类型的材料，那么什么可能会阻止它们出于政治动机审查其他类型的材料呢？因此，围绕这个问题的辩论一直很复杂，但我认为雷切尔说得对，你知道，至少我们对此发出了更大的声音，平台也意识到了更多，但我们真的，我们真的需要立法，法律需要跟上技术的发展，就像我们知道的那样，在人工智能方面，法律一直非常滞后，在追赶技术方面落后了，我们希望这些法案能尽快通过，这在很多领域都是如此，而技术几乎每次都占上风。
Jeyan Jeganathan: Anyways, I want to thank the three of you for coming on to TVO tonight and helping us understand this issue a lot better. Rachel Kowert, founder of Psychgeist, that's Psychgeist that's a great name. Uh she's a visiting researcher at the University of Cambridge, Jacquie Marcoux from the Canadian Centre for Child Protection, and Ann Shin, the director and producer of Dangerous Games, Roblox, and the Metaverse Exposed. Thanks you three.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*无论如何，我要感谢你们三位今晚来到 TVO，帮助我们更好地理解这个问题。雷切尔·科沃特，Psychgeist 的创始人——Psychgeist，真是个好名字。她是剑桥大学的访问研究员；杰奎·马尔库，来自加拿大儿童保护中心；以及申安，《危险游戏：Roblox 与元宇宙揭秘》的导演和制片人。谢谢你们三位。
Guests (variously): Thank you. Thank you. Thank you.
嘉宾 (不同声音): 谢谢。谢谢。谢谢。
Jeyan Jeganathan: That is the agenda for Thursday, May 29th, 2025. A reminder, you can catch Dangerous Games, Roblox, and the Metaverse Exposed right after this program on TVO. Tomorrow on the program, Steve Paikin and John Michael McGrath will bring you a special episode of the OnPoli podcast in front of a live audience at the University of Toronto. I'm Jeyan Jeganathan. Thanks for watching TVO, for joining us online at tvo.org and we'll see you again tomorrow.
***杰扬·杰加纳坦：*以上是 2025 年 5 月 29 日星期四的《议程》内容。提醒您，在本节目结束后，您可以立即在 TVO 收看《危险游戏：Roblox 与元宇宙揭秘》。明天节目中，史蒂夫·帕金和约翰·迈克尔·麦格拉思将在多伦多大学的现场观众面前，为您带来一期特别的 OnPoli 播客节目。我是杰扬·杰加纳坦。感谢您收看 TVO，感谢您通过 tvo.org 在线加入我们，我们明天再见。
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