政治版图的重塑与中期选举大胜
“大帐篷”（Big Tent）是真实的，而政治版图是虚假的。这就是民主党历史性中期选举的教训，即我们在周二看到的蓝色海啸。民主党人在一年前没人认为他们有任何竞争机会的地方赢得了胜利。[音乐]
在我录制这期节目时，目前还不清楚哪个党派会赢得密西西比州。但请允许我再说一遍：目前还不清楚哪个党派会赢得密西西比州的参议院席位。
这在三个月前是不可想象的。他们在俄亥俄州、[音乐] 德克萨斯州、爱荷华州赢得了州长职位。这场胜利摧毁了人们曾经坚信不疑的红蓝政治版图现实。因此，我们正在进入一个新时代，[音乐] 一个充满未定局面的时代。政治重组可能不再像我们在2024年所认为的那样。从现在开始，政治重组可能意味着整个版图都处于人人可争夺的状态。当然，民主党人并不是单凭自己的力量做到这一点的，在很大程度上，是唐纳德·特朗普总统帮他们做到的。[音乐]
而他在哪里犯了错，与他们做对了什么，其实是同一件事：倾听。特朗普没有倾听。没有倾听选民，有时甚至连他自己都不听。他在当选时承诺降低生活成本、结束战争、在边境建立秩序。相反，他通过关税和新战争提高了生活成本，[音乐] 并在关闭边境、派出戴面具的移民及海关执法局（ICE）探员骚扰和搅乱安定社区之后制造了混乱。特朗普自始至终都没有调整策略。他对人们愤怒的事情几乎一概置之不理，[音乐] 他的政党为此付出了代价。与此同时，对于民主党人来说——我认为他们多年来的核心政治失败一直是不愿倾听，他们倾听的是自己，而不是他们需要争取的选民 [音乐]——他们在各州、各选区找到了契合当地的人选。神学院学生、残奥会运动员，[鼻息声] 他们找到了一批全新的候选人，能够将一系列全新的地方带入竞争格局。[音乐]
随后在像北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州这样的地方，他们拥有素质极高、对本州了如指掌的候选人，以至于罗伊·库珀以20个百分点的优势赢得了本应是摇摆州的席位，[音乐] 约翰·奥索夫赢了18个百分点。
因此，从这次选举中可以学到很多东西，选举之后也有很多事情成为可能。但为了深入思考我们已经看到的经验教训，以及民主党人和共和党人将如何应对这些教训，今天和我一起的是我尊敬的编辑、我们播客影视宇宙中最受喜爱的角色之一——阿伦·拉迪卡，他今天将反客为主来采访我。他现在加入到了节目中。[音乐]
阿伦，欢迎回到节目。
英文原文
The Big 10 is real and the political map is fake. That is the lesson of the Democrats historic midterm, the blue tsunami that we saw on Tuesday. Democrats won in places nobody thought they had any chance even to compete in a year ago. [music]As I record this, it's unclear which part is going to win Mississippi. But let me say that again. It is unclear which party is going to win the Senate seat in Mississippi.
That was unimaginable 3 months ago. They won governorships in Ohio, in [music] Texas, in Iowa. This was a win that destroyed [music] the reality of the red blue map people had come to believe in so firmly. And so we're we're entering a new era, [music] an era when much is unsettled. The realignment may not be what we thought it was in 2024. The realignment may be a map that is entirely [music] up for grabs from here on out. Now, Democrats did do this on their own, of course, to a very large extent, President Donald Trump did it for them. [music] And both what he did wrong and what they did right were the same thing.
Listening. Trump did not listen. Did not listen to the voters, did not even sometimes listen to himself. He was [music] elected promising to lower costs, to end wars, to bring order at the border. Instead, he raised costs through tariffs and through new wars. [music] and he created disorder after closing the border and sending in masked ICE agents to harass and upend settled communities. Trump at no point pivoted. He dismissed almost everything that people were angry [music] about and his party paid the price. And at the same time, Democrats who I think their central political failing for years has [music] been an unwillingness to listen. They listen to themselves as opposed to the voters they need [music] to win over. In state after state, district after district, they found people who fit. Seminarians, parolympians, [snorts] they found a whole new class of candidates who could put into [music] play a whole new set of places. And then in some places like North Carolina and Georgia, they just had candidates of such exceptional quality who understood their states so well that they won states that should have been purple by 20 points [music] for Roy Cooper, 18 points for John Of.
So there's a tremendous amount to learn from this election and a tremendous amount that is now possible after it. But to to think through both the lessons that we're seeing already, but then how Democrats and for that matter Republicans are going to respond to them, I'm joined here by my revered editor, one of the most beloved characters in our podcast [music] cinematic universe, Aaron Ratica, is going to turn the tables and interview me. He joins [music] me now.
Aaron, welcome back to the show.
呃，非常感谢你邀请我。嗯，我们先来一个几乎像是陷阱提问的问题。比如，你知道乔治·麦吉尔（George McGill）是谁吗？
英文原文
>> Uh, thank you very much for having me. Um, let's start with uh almost a gotcha. Like, do do you have any idea who George McIll is?我不知道。
英文原文
>> I don't.乔治·麦吉尔是在昨晚获胜的亚当·汉密尔顿（Adam Hamilton）之前堪萨斯州最后一位民主党参议员。他是在1932年当选的。我当时试图想出 [笑声] 各种不同的方式来表达昨晚发生的事情，这就是我能想到的最好的表达方式。
英文原文
>> George McIll is the last Democratic senator in Kansas before uh Adam Hamilton who won last night. He won in 1932. I was trying to think [laughter] of all the different ways of expressing what happened last night and that's the best I could come up with.这是一个非常好的表述方式。所以每个人审视这次选举时，民主党所有不同的支持群体都得到了一些东西。左翼赢得了一些竞选。温和派赢得了一些竞选。具有魅力的候选人表现极其亮眼。不具魅力的候选人也表现出色。
英文原文
>> That's a very good way of doing it. So everybody looking at this election, all the different constituents of the Democratic party, they all got something. The left won some races. The center won some races. Charismatic candidates were huge. Uncarismatic candidates also did well.势不可挡的罗伊·库珀。
英文原文
>> The Roy Cooper juggernaut.罗伊·库珀净赢20个百分点。[笑声] 呃，这一直以来的梦想。昨晚民主党的“大帐篷”实现突破了吗？是的，但请允许我先把这个问题搁在一边一分钟。
英文原文
>> Roy Cooper plus 20. [laughter] Uh, this has long been the dream. Was there a breakthrough for the Big 10 Democratic party last night? Yes, but let me hold that to the side for a minute.唐纳德·特朗普呼吁美国民众投票时就像是他本人在选票上一样，而美国民众确实这么做了。
英文原文
>> Donald Trump asked America to vote like he was on the ballot and it did.特朗普与共和党中期的挫败
我觉得特朗普对这次选举做出了可能最搞笑的反应，他在半夜在 Truth Social 上发帖。
英文原文
>> Trump of course had, I think, the funniest possible reaction to the election where in the middle of the night he posts on True Social.“如果是我在选票上，我们就会取得压倒性胜利。感谢您对此事的关注，唐纳德·J·特朗普总统。”今天人们一直在评论他看起来并没有因为选举结果而感到非常沮丧。当然不会。他不在乎共和党人输掉。事实上，共和党人往往是因为他以更有可能让他们输掉的方式介入而输掉的，对吧？比如引入肯·帕克斯顿（Ken Paxton），或者确保肯·帕克斯顿在德克萨斯州共和党初选中的胜利，以及在南卡罗来纳州力推达琳·格雷厄姆（Darlene Graham）。
英文原文
>> If I had been on the ballot, we would have won in a landslide. Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald J. Trump. And people today have been remarking how he doesn't seem very upset by the election results. And of course not. He does not mind when Republicans lose. And in fact, Republicans often lose because he intervenes in a way that is likelier to make them lose, right? Like bringing in Ken Paxton or assuring Ken Paxton's victory in in in the Texas Republican primary, pushing for Darlene Graham in South Carolina.但当共和党人输掉时，当特朗普没有出现在选票上时，对特朗普来说，这证明了他的重要性。
英文原文
>> But when Republicans lose, when Trump is not on the ballot to Trump, it shows his importance.所以我认为，他一点也不介意这一点。对他来说，这是证明他是不可或缺的获胜者的更多证据。这里真正发生的是，唐纳德·特朗普一直是一个糟糕的、灾难性的总统，他背叛了选民赋予他的执政授权，并且随着他不断流失民意支持，他不仅从未改变方向，而且根本不承认正在发生的事情。[倒吸气]
因此，唐纳德·特朗普带领他的政党走向了失败，或者说确实为该党走向失败创造了条件。
那么接下来的问题是民主党人对此采取了什么行动，也就是——
英文原文
>> And so he, I think, doesn't mind this at all. is more evidence to him of his essential winner. What really happened here is Donald Trump has been a terrible catastrophic president who has betrayed the mandate he was given by voters and as he was losing bleeding public support not only never changed course but never admitted what was happening at all. [gasps]And so Donald Trump led his party to defeat or certainly created the conditions for the party to go to defeat.
And then there's a question of what Democrats did with that which
是的。那么，他们究竟做了什么呢，对吧？
英文原文
>> Yeah. Well, so what did they do, right?大帐篷是真实的，而政治版图是虚假的。[笑声]
英文原文
>> The big tent is real and the map is fake. [laughter]帮帮我。
英文原文
>> Help.哪里？
英文原文
>> Where?那是什么意思？
英文原文
>> What's that mean?“大帐篷”路线与候选人契合度
好吧。民主党派出了契合他们各自所在州和选区的候选人。
我认为把这一点放在核心位置非常重要。我的意思是，你知道，去年我在节目中发表了这篇长篇评论，谈到需要一个“大帐篷”式的民主党。其他人也提出了这个论点，即随着时间的推移，美国政治中出现的问题之一是各政党在其意识形态和文化定位上变得更加狭隘——
英文原文
>> All right. So, Democrats ran candidates who fit their states and their districts.And I think it's just really important to center that. I mean, I I, you know, last year I did this big, you know, essay on the show about the need for a big 10 Democratic party. Other people making this argument too that that one of the problems that has emerged over time in American politics is that parties have become tighter in their ideological and cultural positioning
还有地理定位。
英文原文
>> and geographical还有地理定位，是的。这使得他们在地理定位上也变得更加受限，因为他们不愿意推出与该党中位数成员差异很大的候选人。而民主党人在这里做得非常出色的是他们运用权力的方式，对吧？哈基姆·杰弗里斯（Hakeem Jeffries）和查克·舒默在这里，他们将焦点紧紧放在生活负担能力和伊朗战争上。他们没有被很多其他事情分散注意力。
然后当他们推选候选人时，我是说，他们推选了像詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）这样的人，他在德克萨斯州领导了一场几乎称得上宗教左翼复兴的运动来对抗肯·帕克斯顿；正如你提到的，堪萨斯州的亚当·汉密尔顿，一位卫理公会大型教会牧师。亚当·汉密尔顿和斯科特·科伦（Scott Colom），后者是密西西比州的候选人，看起来非常有可能以大约100票左右的优势获胜。
英文原文
>> and geograph Yeah. And that has made them tighter in their geographical positioning because they're not willing to run candidates who differ as much from the kind of median member of the party. And what Democrats did really well here was in the way that they acted with power, right? Hakeem Jeff and Chuck Schumer here, they kept things very focused on affordability, on the Iran war. They didn't get distracted by a lot of other things.And then when they ran candidates, I mean, they ran people like James Telerico, a um sort of leading an almost religious left revival in Texas against Ken Paxton, Adam Hamilton in Kansas, as you mentioned, a Methodist megaurch pastor. Adam Hamilton and Scott Co, who's the candidate in Mississippi, who looks very much like he may win by like a hundred votes or something.
甚至不到100票。
英文原文
>> Not even a 100.我的意思是，我们将看看最终结果如何。
英文原文
>> I mean, we'll see what where it plays out.真是不可思议。他们两人，汉密尔顿和科伦，都将自己描述为反堕胎（pro-life）民主党人。现在，他们希望创造保护生育自由的条件，但他们是以反堕胎民主党人的身份参选的，对吧？因为他们的基督教信仰。呃，玛丽·佩尔托拉（Mary Peltola）参选时，你知道，她在阿拉斯加的口号是什么来着？“信仰、自由与捕鱼”（Faith, freedom, and fish）之类的。嗯，所以民主党人在这种情况下非常出色地挑选了适合该州的候选人。当我谈到“版图是虚假的”时，这次选举带来的启示之一就是你真的不应该把某些州视为不可能争取的。
英文原文
>> Truly insane, though. Both of them describe themselves, Hamilton and and and Colum, as pro-life Democrats. Now, they want to create conditions under which reproductive freedom is protected, but they ran as pro-life Democrats, right? Because of their Christian faith. U Mary Pollah, who ran, you know, uh what was her slogan in Alaska? Faith, freedom, and fish or something. Um so, the Democrats did a very good job in this case of picking candidates who fit the state. And when I say the map is fake, one of the revelations from this um election is you really should not treat states as off the table.人们之前根本不讨论堪萨斯州。顺便说一句，亚当·汉密尔顿并不是舒默招募工作的胜利。亚当·汉密尔顿是自己决定参选的。是的。
英文原文
>> People were not talking about Kansas. By the way, Adam Hamilton is not a Schumer recruiting victory. Adam Hamilton decided to run. Yeah.没错。他是一个自己做出决定的人，顺便说一句，要向我在 Vox 的前同事、也是在这里《纽约时报》的同事萨拉·克里夫（Sarah Kliff）致敬，她关于罗杰·马歇尔（Roger Marshall）令人难以置信地残酷逼索那些无力支付医疗费用的人的重磅调查报道，是那场竞选的一个非常、非常、非常重要的组成部分。那是萨拉·克里夫在《纽约时报》爆料的一篇报道。嗯，向萨拉致敬。
英文原文
>> Right. He is somebody who decided, and by the way, shout out to my um colleague at Vox and colleague here at the New York Times, Sarah Cliff, whose bombshell story, bombshell investigative work on Roger Marshall's unbelievably brutal um pursuit and persecution of people who are not able to pay his medical bills was a major major major part of that race. And that's a story Sarah Cliff broke here at the New York Times. Um shout out to Sarah.是的。等等，我也想顺便向一个人致敬，那就是霍华德·迪恩（Howard Dean），对吧？因为“50州战略”在这里得到了印证，对吧？我是说，这就是你所说的意思，但原因有两个：第一，你可能真的会赢得其中一些州；第二，这些地方总会有一些有才华的政治家，他们不一定能在自己的州获胜，但仍然值得吸纳进你的联盟中。仅仅是参与其中、不轻言放弃，就至关重要。
英文原文
>> Yeah. Wait, can I I want to throw in a shout out uh while we're at it and that's Howard Dean, right? Because the 50 state strategy is vindicated here, right? So, I mean, this is what you're saying, but like there's two reasons. One, you might actually win some of these states, but also there are going to be talented politicians in these places who can't necessarily win their state who are still worth having in your coalition. Just being out there and not writing things off is critically important.是的，还有做好招募候选人的工作，然后支持他们。我认为民主党人过去有点把佛罗里达州当作不可争取的，而你在这里看到的是，尼克松最终只会落后几个百分点。如果你在合适的环境中有合适的候选人，佛罗里达州是可以争取的，所以你必须建立那种党派实力。你必须去寻找那些人。现在这里出现了一个有趣的问题。你在开头时说每个人都得到了他们想要的一部分东西，这至少在某种程度上是真的。嗯，我认为看看民主党人能从密歇根州、缅因州和佛罗里达州吸取什么教训将会非常引人入胜，他们在这些面临竞争或可竞争的参议院选举中推出了立场更激进的左翼候选人。阿卜杜勒·赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）赢了，在我们录制时，看起来他会以7个百分点左右的优势获胜。缅因州的情况稍微复杂一点，因为他们经历了格雷厄姆·普拉特纳（Graham Platner）引发的整场灾难。苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）实际上是一个相当不错的候选人，因为她享有独立的声誉——尽管从对方的角度看并不完全名副其实。但考虑到缅因州的人口结构，杰克逊在那里赢得的选票差距看起来比预期的要小，对吧？这不像约翰·奥索夫在佐治亚州净胜18个百分点那样。而在佛罗里达州，安吉·尼克松（Angie Nixon），一个更直接的美国民主社会主义者（DSA）候选人输了，对吧？这不同于你在佛罗里达州所看到的——
英文原文
>> Yes. and and you know doing the work to recruit the candidates and then supporting them. So I think Democrats have sort of treated Florida as not winnable and what you saw here I mean you know Nixon is only going to fall a couple points short. Florida is wable um if you have the right candidates in the right environment and so you have to build that kind of party strength. You have to look for those people. And now there's like an interesting question here. You were saying at the beginning that everybody got some of what they wanted and and that's at least somewhat true. Um, I think it's going to be fascinating to see what lessons Democrats learn from Michigan, from Maine, and from Florida, which is where they ran in contested or contestable um, Senate uh, elections, much more left-wing candidates. And Abdul Seed won, it looks like he'll win by something in the seven range as we're taping. Maine, it's a little harder to say because they had the whole disaster with Graham Platner. Susan Collins is actually a quite good candidate because she's has a reputation for independence not totally welld deserved from the um other side. But Jackson's uh win there looks closer than you would expect given the demographics of Maine, right? It's not like the John Of plus 18 win in Georgia and in Florida. Angie Nixon, you know, a more direct DSA candidate lost, right? It's not you're not looking in Florida, okay,审视你在南卡罗来纳州或密西西比州所看到的现象。我想对此提出一点异议，对吧？因为有时听起来就像是——
英文原文
>> at what you're seeing in South Carolina or Mississippi. I want to push back on that a little bit, right? Because it sometimes sounds like[鼻息声]
英文原文
>> [snorts]呃，就好像进步派候选人只是该党的累赘一样。但是如果没有他们的想象力，没有他们的理念，这本身是非常重要的。虽然他们的表现不如那些偏温和的候选人好，但他们的表现也绝非糟糕。
英文原文
>> uh you the progressive candidates are just a hindrance to the party. Um but without their imagination, without their ideas, that's very important. And they they didn't do as well as the less left candidates, but they didn't do terribly either.选举表现与政策创新的张力
不，我不认为他们的表现很糟糕。而且我同意你的看法，即你在选举中是否超常发挥，甚至都未必与你是否是一名优秀或重要的众议院或参议院议员真正相关。对吧？我认为国会中很多最具创造力 [鼻息声] 和最重要的议员，其实都身处安全选区，不需要在随时可能被选举击溃的持续威胁下运作。比如伊丽莎白·沃伦，我认为她是最重要的参议员之一，而且长久以来一直如此，她绝不是一个选举表现极其出色的候选人，但作为政策思考者，她具有创造力和创新力，这是她极少数同僚所能比拟的。我认为——我之前在节目中也说过——阿卜杜勒·赛义德将成为超级明星。而且我认同你的一个观点，即他很可能会随着时间的推移不断扩大领先优势。呃，试图将他边缘化、异类化的做法是极其荒唐的，这也是为什么当他参加节目时，我们关注的是他真实的生平故事。他是一个土生土长的美国青年，获得了罗德学者称号，是一名医生，还是橄榄球队队长。我是说，我觉得他们对艾尔——
英文原文
>> No, I don't think they did terribly. And I agree with you that whether you're an electoral overperformer is even correlated really with whether you are a good or important member of the House or Senate. Right? A lot of I think the most creative [snorts] members of Congress and the most important members of Congress are safe seat players who are not operating under the constant threat of electoral wipeout. You know, Elizabeth Warren, I think, is one of the most important senators, has been for some time, is not an incredible electoral performer by any means, but is creative and innovative as a policy thinker in a way very, very few of her colleagues are. I think, and I've said this on the show before, I think Abdul sayed is going to be a superstar. And I agree with something that that I think you think, which is that it's very likely he might build margins over time. Um the effort to otherize him was grotesque and it's part of why when he was on the show like we focus on in his actual story. I mean this is a an American boy who's a road scholar and a doctor and a captain of his football team. I mean I found what they tried to do to Elsa而且我觉得艾尔是一个令人印象非常深刻的人。
英文原文
>> and I find El to be a very impressive person.我认为那种做法是应受谴责的。这些人在参议院中的实际表现，或者在众议院的表现，对我来说，与“你是否能从中提取出民主党在以往从未涉足的地方参与竞争意味着什么的信号”是不同的问题。我要说的是，在民主党整体领先13个百分点的政治大环境下，只以7或8个百分点左右的优势获胜，这算不上一次在选举层面上令人惊艳的表现。明尼苏达州的佩吉·弗拉纳根（Peggy Flanagan），她获胜了，目前看起来领先大约9到10个百分点，大概在10个百分点左右。同样地，在明尼苏达州整体处于民主党领先13个百分点的大环境中，这并不是一个很好的表现，对吧？你不应该从中吸取“那正是你想要推选的人选”的教训。嗯，安吉·尼克松，我认为存在一种可能——而且我认为参议院竞选委员会对此负有一定责任——如果一个更强大的佛罗里达州民主党挑选了一位更适合佛罗里达州的候选人，就像你在堪萨斯州或密西西比州看到的那样，再加上参议院竞选委员会在该州投入更多资源，我认为那本该是一个可以拿下的席位。所以，你想把责任归咎于谁，我认为双方都应该承担一些责任。但我认为没有任何理由看着选举结果说，在佛罗里达州推选 DSA 候选人是一次高明的战略举措。那不是在堪萨斯州获胜的模式，不是在德克萨斯州获胜的模式，不是在佐治亚州获胜的模式，也不是可能在密西西比州获胜的模式，同样不是看起来将在阿拉斯加州或爱荷华州获胜的模式。因此，你必须在这些事情之间保持张力。有时人们会把关于选举表现的陈述当作对候选人价值的道德评价——
英文原文
>> I thought it was reprehensible. The question of how some of these people will play out in the Senate, you know, or in the House for that matter, is different to me than the question of can you extract any signal in terms of what it means for the Democratic party to compete in places it has not competed before. And I'll say winning by, you know, plus seven or eight or whatever it's going to be in a Democratic plus 13 environment is just it's not a it's not an electorally impressive performance. Peggy Flanigan in Minnesota. She wins by about looks like it'll be about 9 or 10 right now. 10ish. Again, Minnesota Democratic plus 13. It's not a good performance, right? You you shouldn't take a lesson that that's what you want to run right there. Um, Angie Nixon, I think that there's a world and and I think that the SEC bears some blame for this, but a stronger Florida Democratic Party that picked a candidate who is better suited to Florida in the way that you saw in Kansas or Mississippi. Um, and a DSC that invested more in the state. I think that was a winnable seat. And so, you know, who you want to blame for that, I think sort of like both sides deserve some blame. But I don't think that the I don't think there's any reason to look at the results and say it was a brilliant strategic move to run the DSA candidate in Florida. That isn't what won in Kansas. It's not what won in Texas. It's not what won in Georgia. It's not what might win in Mississippi. It's not what seems like it will win in Alaska or Iowa for that matter. And so, you know, you got to hold these things in tension. Sometimes people take statements about electoral performance as moral statements about the worth of a candidate或者是对理念价值的道德评价。
英文原文
>> or the ideas或者是理念的价值。在我看来那是荒谬的。
英文原文
>> or the ideas. That's crazy in my view.顺便说一句，我确实认为我们往往在温和派、进步派或 DSA 等光谱划分上陷得太死。你可以拥有同时具备多种观点的候选人。比如南卡罗来纳州的安妮·安德鲁斯医生（Dr. Annie Andrews），当大家突然意识到民主党可能在南卡罗来纳州获胜的那一刻，正是整晚选情真正发生逆转的时刻，这也反映出达琳·格雷厄姆是一个糟糕的候选人。
英文原文
>> By the way, I I do think we often end up too tight on this like moderate to progressive to DSA or whatever it might be scale. You can have candidates who have like many views all at once. So Dr. Annie Andrews in South Carolina who I mean the moment you realized the night was really turning was when all of a sudden the Democrats were going to win in South Carolina reflects a terrible candidate in Darlene Graham as well.好吧，但南卡罗来纳州，我是说，哇。
英文原文
>> Okay. But South Carolina I mean wow我知道。安妮·安德鲁斯医生，一位医生，既契合南卡罗来纳州，但我认为如果从政治光谱上衡量，她在医疗保健方面持有相当激进的进步派观点，而医疗保健领域的进步观点是非常受欢迎的。对吧？这同样也是阿卜杜勒·赛义德的一个优势议题。所以我认为，有时人们会陷入这样一种误区，以为你所说的“适合选区”或“适合该州”指的仅仅是变得更加温和。詹姆斯·塔拉里科理应被正确地理解为一位相当偏向进步派的候选人，但他在石油和天然气问题上向右靠拢，尽管他大幅放开了自己的立场，他在边境安全问题上也向右移，但他同时也是一位非常平民主义的候选人，反对亿万富翁，一位极具追问精神的候选人，对吧？我认为你在很多不同地方都看到了这种“平民主义与充裕论”（populist abundance）的结合。因此在我看来，从这群候选人身上可以学到很多东西。但我确实认为有一点很引人注目：如果你希望看到民主党在这一成功的基础上再接再厉，那么我不认为阿卜杜勒·赛义德、佩吉·弗拉纳根、安吉·尼克松或特洛伊·杰克逊是你吸取选举经验的地方。
而且我认为顺着往下看，缅因州还有另一个教训。缅因州第二国会选区在过去三次选举中一直由贾里德·戈登（Jared Golden）代表。那是全美由民主党人代表的最偏红的选区。戈登是——或者曾经是——众议院中最保守的民主党人，他因此受到了左翼的严厉指责，包括面对更进步的挑战者马特·邓拉普（Matt Dunlap）的挑战。戈登决定退休，他受够了，对此感到厌烦。而戈登年复一年以疯狂的超常表现保住了这个席位。现在看来，即使在这场巨大的浪潮选举中，邓拉普要么只能以极微弱的优势获胜，要么会输掉这个席位。贾里德·戈登就像是民主党的最有价值球员（MVP）。他是你希望留在党内并应该予以保护的那类人。这其中包含着一个教训：如果你想建立权力，并且民主党人现在对可能赢得密西西比州感到兴奋，对在2032年赢得堪萨斯州感到兴奋，你必须设法保住这些席位，对吧？你不能就这么再次失去它们。嗯，你想要建立绝对多数，你想要建立持久的多数。这不仅意味着走温和路线，而且意味着必须认识到你需要这些适合他们所在州、适合他们所在选区的候选人，[音乐] 然后你需要竭尽所能让他们过得更轻松，对吧？而不是像对待贾里德·戈登那样试图 [音乐] 将他们排挤出局。
英文原文
>> I know Dr. Annie Andrews right a doctor right both somebody who fits South Carolina but has I think if you were grading it on a scale quite progressive views on healthcare and progressive views on healthcare are very popular. Right. That's also a good issue for Abdul Asad. So I think sometimes you can get into this thing where people think what you mean by fit the district or fit the state is just to be more moderate. James Terico is a like should correctly be understood as a fairly progressive candidate but he moved right on oil and gas but like very much opened himself and he also moved right on border security but he also was a very populist candidate running against billionaires a very probing candidate right the sort of populist abundance synthesis that I think you saw in a lot of different places so in in my view there's a lot to learn from a bunch of these candidates but I do think it is it is notable. If what you would like to see is Democrats building on this success that I don't think the place you want to look for electoral lessons is Abdul Seed, is Peggy Flanigan, is Angie Nixon, is Troy Jackson.And I think Maine has another lesson if you go down. So the main second house district was represented by Jared Golden last three elections. That is the district in America that the reddest district represented by a Democrat. Golden is the most conservative or was the most conservative House Democrat and he was um like tormented by the left for this including facing a challenge by a more progressive challenger Matt Dunlap. And Golden decided to retire. He was done with it. He was tired of it. and Golden who held this seat with insane overperformance year after year after year. You know, now it looks like even in this gigantic wave election, Dunlap is either going to win it incredibly modestly or or lose the seat. Jared Golden was like a most valuable player for the Democrats. He is a kind of person you want in the party and you should protect. And there's a lesson in that. If you want to build power and the Democrats excited about possibly winning Mississippi right now, excited about winning Kansas in 2032, you're going to need to try to keep these seats, right? Like, you can't just lose them again. Um, you want to build a supermajority. You want to build a durable majority. That doesn't just mean moderating, but it does mean recognizing that you need these candidates who are right for their states, right for their districts, [music] and then you need to do everything you can to make their life easy, right? not as was done with Jared Golden try to [music] like hound them out of office.
特朗普执政的反弹与现实代价
嗯，我想给这股狂欢泼一点冷水，因为——
英文原文
>> Um, I want to rain a little bit on the parade because自从特朗普第一次走下那个自动扶梯以来，对吧，那是哪一年？2015年6月。自由派阵营的每个人、中间派、永不挺特朗普者，每个人都在想：他们什么时候才能醒悟？需要付出什么代价？对吧？而结果是，促成这一切的代价简直令人匪夷所思，对吧？它需要一场不受欢迎、违宪、悬而未决的战争来推高汽油价格，尤其是柴油价格；需要将拉美裔选民视为理所当然，并在移民问题上进行攻击并在街头开枪射杀平民。所有这些都是走到今天这一步所必需付出的代价。所以，我是说，[鼻息声] 这显然是民主党的一次巨大胜利，但需要付出这么多代价才走到这一步，确实让我有些犹豫。在我看来，这比你刚才所描述的还要更受外部客观环境的影响。因此，我认为目前在国际上，我们已经有了足够多的类似特朗普的政治家案例。弗拉维奥·博索纳罗（Flávio Bolsonaro），你知道，在巴西总统选举第一轮中领先，最终在第二轮中输给了卢拉。但根本没有证据表明特朗普风格——或者说我们在美国所认为的特朗普风格，在全世界范围内你可能称之为民粹右翼风格——会让选民反感。选民不喜欢的是自己的生活变得更糟。对吧。那曾是一个大问题——
英文原文
>> since Trump first came down that escalator, right, what is that? June of 2015, everyone on the liberal side, the centrists, the never Trumpers, everyone has been wondering when are the scales going to fall from their eyes? What will it take? Right? So, what it took is kind of insane, right? It took an unpopular, unconstitutional, inconclusive war driving up gas prices and crucially diesel gas prices. It took taking Latino voters for granted and attacking on immigration and shooting people in the streets. Like all of that is what was needed to get where we are now. So like it it I mean [snorts] it's a obviously tremendous victory for the Democrats, but it does give me a little bit of pause that it took so much. I I see it as more environmental even than than you're describing it there. So, I think at this point internationally, we have enough examples of Trump-like politicians. Flavio Bolsinaro um you know, came out ahead in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, ended up losing to Lula in the second round. But there is just no evidence that the Trumpy style or what we think of as the Trumpy style in America, but what you might think of as like the populist right style worldwide is a turnoff to voters. What voters don't like is their life getting worse. Right. That was a big problem for谁会喜欢生活变糟呢？
英文原文
>> Who likes that?没人喜欢。但是当你提到这需要付出那么多代价时，我其实认为并不需要那么多。你所描述的是一连串导致人们现实生活后果的极其激烈的事件。所以你可以设想一个世界，在那个世界里特朗普的执政要温和得多，但仍然出现了一种——
英文原文
>> Nobody. But but when you're saying it took so much, I actually think it didn't take so much. What you're describing is a chain of very intense events that led to real world consequences for people. So you could have imagined a world where actually Trump governed much more modestly, but there was a不，你设想不出来。实际上根本不可能。
英文原文
>> No, you can't. You can't actually.好吧，但我的意思是，或者换一种表达方式：2008年，贝拉克·奥巴马赢得了一场巨大的胜利，但失业率却持续上升。因此，2010年对民主党来说是一场历史性的惨败，而这并不是因为奥巴马的个人风格令选民反感，对吧？他在2012年赢了。人们相当喜欢他。这是因为从根本上说，如果人们不觉得他们的生活在变好，事实上反而觉得生活在变糟。从另一个角度来表述你刚才的话：人们觉得自己的生活在变差，然后是特定的群体——比如西班牙裔美国人发现他们的生活变得糟糕得多，因为唐纳德·特朗普和斯蒂芬·米勒动用了大量国家强制力针对他们和他们的社区，而米勒在这场选举中为共和党的失利负有很大责任，对吧？鲍比·普利多（Bobby Pulido）以25个百分点的优势赢得了德克萨斯州的一个众议院选区，对吧？他是一位令人惊叹的候选人，这位非常知名的歌手参加竞选并打了一场漂亮的仗，但我记得他刚参选时，那里原本被认为是特朗普的稳拿选区。对吧。他赢了25个百分点，对吧？我认为这个人现在在民主党内应该被当作政治明星对待。归根结底，你不能让人们的生活变糟。但反过来看，特朗普在其他时期之所以能像过去那样挺过来，是因为在他第一任期的大部分时间里，他受益于相当强劲的经济。当他寻求连任时，人们记住了这一点。
英文原文
>> Well, but what I'm saying is, or maybe a different way of putting it, is in 2008, Barack Obama won a very big victory, but the unemployment rate continued to go up. And so 2010 was a historic wipeout for the Democratic party because, and that wasn't because Obama's personal style was repulsive to the electorate, right? He won in 2012. People liked him quite a bit. It's because fundamentally, if people do not feel their lives are getting better, in fact, they feel they're getting worse. And and sort of another way of saying what you're saying is people felt their lives were getting worse and then particular groups, right? You know, Hispanic Americans saw their lives getting much worse because of the amount of state force Donald Trump and Steven Miller um who, you know, did a lot to lose this election for Republicans was aiming at them and aiming at their communities, right? Bobby Pledo uh winning a Texas district for the House by 25 points, right? He's an amazing candidate, this very very well-known singer and just like somebody who has like run a fantastic race, but I remember him getting in. That was supposed to be a safe Trump district. Right. He won by 25 points, right? And that's a guy who I think should be treated in the Democratic party right now as a star. And in the end, you cannot make people's lives worse. But conversely, the reason Trump was able to survive in the way he was at other times was he benefited from like a pretty strong economy for most of his first term. And people remembered that when he ran for his second um you know, effort at re-election.嗯，而且他在第一任期的表现比人们预期的要好，部分原因是他给人们发放了支票，对吧？
英文原文
>> Well, and he did better in the first and people expected in part because he was sending people checks, right?人口学选民重组的神话与现实
是的。这是值得注意的，因为你知道分崩离析的是政治重组——
英文原文
>> Yeah. This is something that's worth noting because you know what fell apart was the realignment,对吧？天哪，政治重组。我的意思是，好吧，我能借题发挥一下吗？
英文原文
>> right? Oh my god, the realignment. I mean, okay, can I riff for one second?我很想听你借题发挥。
英文原文
>> I would love you to riff.如你所知，我是一个种族政治重组怀疑论者。我从一开始就讨厌这个说法，在我看来这简直不可理喻。很明显，那些转向共和党阵营的人，不管是年轻男性、年轻黑人男性，还是整个西班牙裔群体——而且我还要说一句我们必须说的话，那就是存在无数种不同的西班牙裔，对吧？我的意思是，显而易见。但是——
英文原文
>> I am a racial realignment skeptic, as you know. I hated it from the beginning. It seemed insane to me. It was clear that the people who had moved into the Republican column, whether that's young men, uh, black young, well, younger black men, uh, Hispanic people as a whole, and I'll say the thing we have to say, which is that there's a million different kinds of Hispanic, right? I mean, duh. Like, but yet所有这些群体曾经都蜂拥倒向特朗普。
英文原文
>> all those groups surged toward Trump.他们现在全都 [清嗓子] 以惊人的数字重新倒向民主党。青年选票大约是净胜30多个百分点，我不知道确切的数字，但是——
英文原文
>> They have all [clears throat] surged back and staggering numbers. the youth vote was like what plus 30 some I don't know the exact number but是的，就在我们说话的同时，我要调出这个数据，因为我认为它太惊人了。现在我正在看《纽约时报》上的众议院选举结果——
英文原文
>> yeah I'm going to pull up this number just while we're saying this because I think it's so striking. So right now I'm looking at house results嗯，随着更多选票被清点，边际上的数据可能会略有变动，但在我们周三上午谈话时，男性选民向民主党倾斜了17个百分点；18至29岁的选民——这简直是一个疯狂的数字——向民主党倾斜了32个百分点，整整32个百分点；西班牙裔选民向民主党倾斜了28个百分点。不过我要指出的是，这里有一点需要谨慎对待，那就是我们不知道这里发生的事情有多少是说服工作的结果，有多少是投票率的结果。2024年支持特朗普的选民，可能只是在2026年不够喜欢他或者不够在乎，因而没有出来投票。你在投票数据中并不能真正看出来这一点。对吧。
英文原文
>> um at the New York Times and this can all change a little bit on the margin as you know more votes get counted but here we're speaking on um Wednesday morning uh male voters swung 17 points towards the Democrats uh voters aged 18 to 29. This is just a crazy number. Swung 32 points towards the Democrats. 32 points. Um, Hispanic voters 28 points towards the Democrats. I will say though, there's something to be careful with here, which is we don't know how much of what happened here is persuasion versus um turnout. voters who supported Trump in 2024 just didn't like him enough or didn't care enough to come out in 2026. You can't really see that in the the voting data. Right.对，确实看不出来。而且你也看不到——我的意思是，粗略地说，在这些总统大选中大约有1.5亿人投票，对吧？而大约有1.1亿、1.15亿、1.2亿人决定了中期选举。所以，是的。你无法看出来。而且这绝对不一定是这个人改变了主意，往往是这些人出来投票了或者没有出来投票，对吧？真正的摇摆选民在某种程度上是那些只是偶尔投票的人，对吧？[鼻息声] 话虽如此，让我们尝试解读一下政治符文。呃，2006年——
英文原文
>> Right. No. And you also can't see the, you know, I mean, roughly speaking, 150 million people vote in these presidential elections, right? And maybe 110, 115, 120 million decide the midterms. So, yeah. Yeah. you can't. And it's definitely not necessarily the case that this person changed his mind or her mind. It's often these people showed up or they didn't, right? The true swing voters are the people in some ways who only vote sometimes, right? [snorts] Um that said though, let's try to read the rune runes a little bit. Uh 2006,你了解我，阿伦，我喜欢解读符文。
英文原文
>> you know me, Aaron, I love a good run.是的，解读一下符文很合适。[笑声] 是的。
英文原文
>> Yeah, a little rune reading is right. [laughter] Yeah,这正好正中我的下怀。让我们来看看中期选举中的两组历史案例，对吧？好，一方面我们有2006年，当时民主党表现极其出色，那是第一位黑人总统崛起的先兆，尽管当时很少有人意识到这一点。他意识到了，大卫·阿克塞尔罗德（David Axelrod）意识到了，但那在2006年并不是主流看法。我前一年才刚来这里工作，我会说当时没人谈论贝拉克·奥巴马。极少有人在谈论贝拉克·奥巴马，对吧？而两年后，他就成了美国总统。但硬币的反面是1994年，金里奇及其同僚赢得了“美利坚契约”。他们确实极大地改变了美国政治的面貌，而我们至今仍在承受其代价。在很多方面，特朗普就是那棵树结出的果实。天哪，那太可怕了。但你懂我的意思。呃，但他们在1996年输给了克林顿。嗯，在2010年，正如你之前提到的，正如奥巴马所说的，那是一场“痛击”——
英文原文
>> it's right in my wheelhouse. uh two let's two two sets of historical examples from midterms right okay so we have two on one side we have 2006 where the Democrats do extremely well it is a harbinger of the rise of the first black president although very few people realized it at the time he did David Axelrod did but like not was not conventional wisdom in 2006 I had just started working here the year before I would say no one was talking Barack Obama. Very few people were talking about Barack Obama, right? And then two years later, he's the president of the United States. The flip side of that though is 1994, Gingrich and co win the contract with America. They do change the face of American politics quite a bit and we're all still paying the price. Trump is in many ways, right, the the fruit of that tree. God, that was terrible. But you know what I'm saying. Uh but they lose to Clinton in 1996. Um, in 2010, as you alluded to earlier, they what what did Obama say? Right. There was a shellacking,对吧？但他随后在2012年相当从容地赢了，尽管——
英文原文
>> right? But then he won really pretty comfortably in 2012, although与众不同的是，他是一位在第二次参选时失去部分选举人票的总统，这实际上非常罕见，对吧？通常情况下更像里根那样，先以微弱优势获胜，随后大获全胜。那么，你认为这次属于哪种情况？
英文原文
>> uncharacteristically he was a president who lost electoral votes the second time he ran, which is actually very unusual, right? Um, usually it's more like Reagan where you win by a little bit and then you win by a lot. So, what do you think this is?中期选举浪潮与未来大选的变数
好吧。仅在现代，出现过这种浪潮般的中期选举导致赢得中期选举的政党随后赢得总统职位并在接下来的大选中赢得席位的情况。这方面很好的例子是2006年，民主党在小布什的第二任期中期选举中获胜，然后在2008年赢得了绝对多数。不仅是贝拉克·奥巴马在2008年获胜，民主党还在参议院获得了60个席位。
英文原文
>> All right. So just in the modern era, you have wave midterms that lead to the party that won the midterm winning the presidency and and winning seats in the next election. So good examples of this are '06 where Democrats win in the kind of second Bush midterm and then in '08 they win a super majority. It's not just that Barack Obama wins in ' 08, it's Democrats get 60 votes in the Senate.是的。
英文原文
>> Yeah. Um我还要补充一点，当时在中东有一场不受欢迎的战争。随后最终爆发了金融危机，考虑到目前围绕人工智能存在很多不稳定性，尤其是在这次选举之后，以及这对德克萨斯州数据中心建设可能意味着什么，经济从现在起可能不会好转。嗯，2018年民主党在中期选举大胜，他们在2020年赢了。好。但1994年共和党在中期选举大胜，比尔·克林顿在1996年赢了。2010年共和党在中期选举大胜，贝拉克·奥巴马在2012年赢了。中期选举并不是通往下次选举胜利的笔直道路。你必须深思熟虑你要做什么，深思熟虑你推选谁，深思熟虑你如何竞选。我要说的是，正如你刚才谈到奥巴马时所说的，2006年的中期选举在民主党阵营是一次极具传统美国风情、挥舞国旗和强调国家安全的中期选举。你知道，那次中期选举中涌现出的一位大明星是吉姆·韦伯（Jim Webb），那位来自弗吉尼亚州、说话强硬的海军陆战队员。正如你所说，你未必能预见到这种势头会转向贝拉克·奥巴马。在2012年共和党惨败之后，特朗普在2016年获胜。2012年之后共和党人坚信的一大重点是必须在移民问题上转向温和，随后你当然迎来了现代美国可以说是最排外的总统。[倒吸气]
我并不是在做预测。然而，在当前围绕以色列和反犹主义存在种种争论的政治时代，似乎比近期任何其他时代都更有可能催生出第一位美籍犹太人总统——如果约翰·奥索夫决定参选的话。围绕着他的势头极其强劲。
英文原文
>> unpopular war in the Middle East, I might add. and then ultimately a financial crisis which given I mean there's a lot of shakiness around AI right now particularly after this election and what that might mean for Texas data center construction. So the economy may not be getting better from here. Um 2018 big Democratic midterm they win in 2020. Okay. Uh but 1994 huge Republican midterm. Bill Clinton wins in 1996. Uh 2010 huge Republican midterm. Barack Obama wins in in 2012. Midterms are not a straight line to victory in the next election. You have to be thoughtful about what you do, thoughtful about who you run, thoughtful about how you run. I will say you often do have to what you were just saying about Obama, the ' 06 midterm was this very like Americana like flag and national security midterm on the Democratic side. you know, like a big star out of that midterm was Jim Webb, the sort of Virginia like like tough talking Marine. You wouldn't necessarily have seen that going to Barack Obama as you were saying. Uh Trump winning in 2016 after the 2012 Republican wipeout. One of the big things Republicans believed after 2012 is he had to moderate on immigration. Then of course you end up getting the most nivist president in, you know, kind of modern America. [gasps]I don't I'm not predicting. The idea though that this era in politics with all the fights around Israel and anti-semitism we're having does seem to be like more than any other recent one leading to like possibly the first Jewish American president in John Of if he if he decides to run. The amount of energy around him.
哇，这可是最先在这里听到的消息。
英文原文
>> Wow. You heard it here first.这算不上首创，对吧？我的意思是这并不是一个新观点，但这确实很有趣。如果你想谈论这次选举中脱颖而出的独一无二的明星，我不是说他想要竞选总统。据我所知，他并不想参选。在这个问题上，他最终可能真的身不由己。
英文原文
>> It's not first, right? I mean this is not a new point but it is just interesting. I mean, if you want to talk about a singular star coming out of this election, I'm not saying wants to run for president. From what I hear, he doesn't. He may not really end up having a choice on this one.确实。我不确定。是的，确实。
英文原文
>> Definitely. I'm not sure. Yeah, definitely.他在佐治亚州击溃了他的对手，对吧？
英文原文
>> Crushed his opponent in Georgia, right?回到特朗普政治渎职的问题上，奥索夫之所以能成为参议员，全拜唐纳德·特朗普所赐。
英文原文
>> And getting back to the Trump political malpractice issue, Oaf is a senator because of Donald Trump.他能当上参议员是因为唐纳德·特朗普。他是一位展现出在摇摆州获胜能力的参议员。顺便提一下，他具有强大的拉票带动效应（coattails）。我并不是说这全靠他一个人，你还必须看到这背后的组织工作。这是由斯泰西·艾布拉姆斯（Stacey Abrams）以及拉斐尔·沃诺克（Raphael Warnock）共同完成的，但凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯（Keisha Lance Bottoms）在佐治亚州赢得了州长席位。我是说，我们一直在讨论众议院和参议院，但是你知道，民主党人赢得了德克萨斯州的州长职位，对吧？罗伯·桑德（Rob Sand）在爱荷华州轻松获胜。我的意思是，这里有很多重要的州长席位斩获。我想我昨天在 Twitter 上看到流传着一个数字——我们现在还能把 X 叫回 Twitter 吗？那是这次选举的一部分吗？[笑声]
英文原文
>> He's a senator because of Donald Trump. He's a senator who has a demonstrated capability to win in a purple state. By the way, he has coels. I'm not saying it's just him and you got to look here at like organizing. This is done by Stacy Abrams and you know, Raphael Waro as well, but Kesha Lance Bottoms won for governor in Georgia. I mean, we've been talking here about about House and Senate, but you know, Democrats won the governorship in Texas, right? Rob Sand won easily in Iowa. I mean, there are a lot of big gubernatorial pickups here. I think I saw a number floating around um on Twitter yesterday. I I think Can we call X Twitter again? Is that part of the election? [laughter]我稍后再谈到他。我——
英文原文
>> I'm going to get to him later. I我昨天在 Twitter 上看到流传着一个数字：民主党现在控制着相当于392张选举人票的各州州长职位，这是非常庞大的数字，对吧？所以，你看，但约翰·奥索夫能够以这种方式应对当前局势，能够在注意力经济中保持如此的主导地位，同时保持一种极具信息纪律性的策略，跨越政治分歧——哈桑·皮克尔（Hasan Piker）和马特·伊格莱西亚斯（Matt Yglesias）都会向你夸赞约翰·奥索夫，正如我长久以来一直在夸奖他一样。这个人展现出了令人难以置信的政治技巧。而且你知道，美国政治往往以这些奇特的方式走向一个不是你几年前从舆论叙事中所预料的人，他目前身边聚集了巨大的能量。我想我只能这么说。
英文原文
>> I saw a number floating around on Twitter yesterday. The Democrats now control the governorships in states worth 392 electoral votes, which is just huge, right? And so, you know, but but John Of like being able to navigate this moment in the way he has, being able to be as dominant in the attention economy as he has been, but maintain a kind of highly message disciplined approach. Uh like straddle the divide where you know both Hassan [ __ ] and Madaglacius will talk up John O to you like I've been talking him up for a long time. the guy is just demonstrating an incredible amount of political skill. And you know, in terms of these sort of weird ways that American politics often leads to not the person you would have expected from narrative a couple years before he just has a there's a a lot of energy around him at the moment. I guess I'll say that.身份认同与执政蓝图的平衡
是的。昨晚有太多引人注目的事情了，对吧？谈论身份认同暂时变得不合时宜——当然并不是真的违法，但你懂我的意思，就好像我们不应该去谈论它。但从身份认同的角度来看，其结果实际上非常惊人，对吧？我们迎来了第一位公开出柜的男性同性恋参议员，我们有了第一位穆斯林参议员，我们将迎来第一位黑人女性州长，我们有一位患有脊柱裂的人将成为参议员，我们迎来了美洲原住民的突破。这真是一个令人惊叹的阵容，让1976年的民主党都要欢呼雀跃了。那么你如何看待这种反差——人们参选时并没有大打身份牌，却借此赢得了选举？
英文原文
>> Yeah. I mean, there were so many remarkable things about last night, right? I mean it became temporarily illegal to talk about identity and of course wasn't actually illegal but you know what I'm saying like we weren't supposed to talk about that but the result of that is actually quite striking in identity terms right we have the first openly gay male senator we have the first Muslim senator we're going to have the first black female governor we have a man with spina bifida who's going to be a senator where we have there's Native American first. It's like an amazing array that you know 1976 Democratic Party is like woohoo. Um so what do you make of that contrast that people ran they didn't run on it but they won with it?我对此并不感到惊讶。尽管有些人将此作为2024年的教训，但事实从来不是女性候选人表现不佳、黑人候选人表现不佳、或者美洲原住民候选人表现不佳。表现不佳的是采取了极不受欢迎立场的候选人。顺便说一句，其中有些立场但并非全部，都与种族、性别和身份认同挂钩。但是，你看贝拉克·奥巴马，对吧？他非常、非常、非常受欢迎。今天仍然是全美最受欢迎的政治人物。呃，你是否想称他为政治家我们可以争论，但奥巴马长久以来一直是美国迄今为止最受欢迎的政治人物。与此同时，当时有人说，这恰恰证明了女性不可能在铁锈地带获胜。然而密歇根州曾有一位女州长；昨晚明尼苏达州的艾米·克洛布彻（Amy Klobuchar）显然也获胜了。所以，人们一直错误地将候选人的身份与身份政治混为一谈。而你在这里看到的是，那种混淆完全是错误的。这些候选人打出了非常、非常精彩的选战，对吧？残奥会运动员、患有脊柱裂的乔什·图尔克（Josh Turek）打了一场非常强有力的选战。顺便提一下，人们对乔什·图尔克参选感到兴奋的原因之一，是因为在爱荷华州——我想那是州参议员选举——他在一个必须学会如何吸引特朗普选民的选区参选。我想说，你通常想要的启发式标准是：这位候选人是否有吸引他们获胜所需选民的历史记录？民主党人推出了许多这样的人选，他们做得非常出色。[音乐]
我们讨论了很多关于他们应该如何竞选以及他们在竞选中如何取得成功的话题，但他们应该如何执政呢？如果你是哈基姆·杰弗里斯和查克·舒默，你会怎么做？顺便说一句，向纽约致敬，最后的致敬。纽约同时控制了众议院和参议院。非常不可思议。
英文原文
>> I don't find that surprising. It just was never the case even though some people took this as like a lesson of 2024 that candidates who are women don't perform well. Candidates who are black don't perform well. Candidates who are Native American don't perform well. What didn't perform well was candidates taking very unpopular positions. Some of them, though, by the way, not all of them tied to race and gender and and identity. But, you know, you look at Barack Obama, right? He's very very very popular. Still the single most popular politician in the country today. Um, you know, whether you want to call him a politician, we can argue, but Obama is by far the most popular political figure in America. Has been for a long time. You know, at the same time, people were saying that, well, it just goes to show you a woman can't win in the rust belt. It's like you had a woman governor in Michigan. You had, you know, we just had like obviously Amy Clolobachar win in Minnesota last night. And so this was always people were conflating wrongly um the identity of candidates with identity politics. And what you see here is that that just was incorrect. And you have these candidates who are just like running really really strong races, right? Josh Turk who the you know the parolympian with spinobipida just ran a really strong race. By the way, Josh Turk was somebody who one reason that there was excitement about him running was in Iowa in the the the state I think it was state senator like he ran in a district where he had to learn how to appeal to Trump voters. The I would say like the heristic you often want is does this candidate have a record of appealing to the kind of voter they're going to need to win? And Democrats ran a bunch of people like that and they did a really good job. [music]So we talked a lot about how they should campaign and how they succeeded in campaigning, but how should they govern? Which what would if you're Hakeim Jeff and Chuck Schumer. Um and by the way, shout out to New York. Last shout out. New York in control of the House and the Senate. Very weird.
是的。顺便提一下，还有克里斯汀·吉利布兰德（Kirsten Gillibrand），一位纽约参议员，在这个选举周期领导参议院竞选委员会，领导那个项目。纽约还拥有全美最著名的市长、曼达尼（Mamdani）和亚历山大·奥卡西奥-科尔特斯（AOC）。我是说，纽约——
英文原文
>> Yeah. And by the way, also uh Christian Gillibrand, a New York senator who is leading the DSC this cycle. Um and and sort of leading that project. Uh and New York has like the country's most famous mayor and Mandani and AOC. I mean, the New York当然还有总统。
英文原文
>> and of course the president,总统的纽约化。
英文原文
>> the New Yorkization of the president,但他想当佛罗里达人。他可以属于佛罗里达。
英文原文
>> but he he wants to be from Florida. He can be from Florida.嗯。
英文原文
>> Um民主党人必须平衡三个大致的方向，对吧？第一个是我称之为“抵抗”的方面，即与特朗普抗争、调查特朗普，追究特朗普、特朗普政府及特朗普家族的责任。向他提交法案，制造出公众能够看清的政治反差。对吧。那是——
英文原文
>> Democrats have three like broad things are going to have to balance, right? One is what I would call resistance, which is fighting Trump, investigating Trump, holding Trump and the Trump administration, Trump family accountable. Um, sending him bills that are going to lead to contrast that the public can see. Right. That's他说他要当“否决先生”（Mr. Veto）。
英文原文
>> said he was going to be Mr. Veto.“否决先生”。埃德·马基（Ed Markey）说，为了准备发出的所有传票，他们得去砍树造纸了。我不确定来自马萨诸塞州的一位参议员发表这种言论是否合适——
英文原文
>> Mr. Veto. Um, you know, Ed Marky said they're going to need to cut down trees for for all the subpoenas that that are going to be offered, which I'm not sure is the most helpful comment from uh one of the senators from Massachusetts,对一个大环保主义者来说。[笑声]
英文原文
>> an environmental. [laughter]是的，对一个大环保主义者来说。但接下来是切实行之有效地把事情办成。所以，你知道，有一项即将付诸表决的大型审批改革法案，但我认为人们对在人工智能监管方面采取行动很有兴趣，你也听到有人在谈论这个议题。在移民问题上，你完全可以设想一些潜在的行动，至少在其边缘领域——
英文原文
>> Yeah, for a big environmentalist. Um, but then there is actually getting things done. Uh, so, you know, you have this big permitting bill that's going to get voted on, but I think there's interest and you're hearing people talk about doing things on AI regulation. Uh, you know, you can imagine things potentially on immigration at least around the corners of it因为现在它对两党都造成了伤害。
英文原文
>> because now it's hurt both parties.现在它伤害了两党。但这并不意味着他们能把事情做成，对吧？我只是说，存在一个关于“你在多大程度上与对方合作、甚至与唐纳德·特朗普合作来把事情办成”的范畴。我是说，在2018年之后确实有一些事情办成了，特别是进入疫情时期之后，南希·佩洛西领导的众议院和唐纳德·特朗普之间达成了巨大的共识。
然后还有我所认为的积累权力和设定议程，这不仅仅关乎你通过众议院或参议院通过了什么法案，而是开始敲定民主党在医疗改革上的立场，并将其带入2028年及随后的2029年竞选和执政议程中。民主党在人工智能监管方面的立场是什么？民主党人整体上如何开始塑造党内中间派——不是指党内的温和派，而是党的重心所在——所坚信的理念？我认为你将看到围绕“扩大 Medicare 覆盖”（Medicare for more）等政策展开大量工作，这些政策将团结党内相对温和的派别和偏左的派别。我认为在人工智能方面会看到很多举措；围绕学前教育（pre-K）和其他形式的托儿服务开始展开大量深入思考。
因此，他们如何平衡这些方面，尤其是如何平衡前两者——对抗与妥协——这将占据大量工作。不过我要说的另一件事是，当我审视未来两年时，我认为很多事情都会出现偏差，很难准确预测到底会发生什么，但考虑到目前有如此多的东西建立在人工智能资本支出繁荣之上，而这极其容易演变成市场回调，经济在我看来显得非常不稳定。还有伊朗战争，它可能爆发成完全不同的局面，或者以色列可能发起新一轮的大规模打击。此前曾有讨论说伊朗是否会使用化学武器？可能出现偏差的方式多种多样，甚至比目前的情况更糟。还有俄罗斯、乌克兰；还有人工智能，不是从经济角度看，而是流氓AI集群黑入中国；还有中国大陆与台湾地区；还有唐纳德·特朗普的健康状况。他是一个80岁高龄的人，说话越来越散漫、东拉西扯。还有围绕他的所有腐败问题。存在太多不确定的——
英文原文
>> Now it's hurt both parties. Um but that doesn't mean they'll be able to do it right. I'm just saying that there's a bucket of how much do you work with the other side and even work with Donald Trump to get things done. And I mean after 2018 there were things that got done and particularly once you got into the pandemic period. I mean there was huge agreements between you know the Nancy Pelosi le house and and and Donald Trump. And then there is what I would think of as like power building and agenda setting, which is not so much what you pass through the House or the Senate, but beginning to hammer out say what is the Democratic position look like on healthcare reform that they would bring into a 2028 and then 2029 um you know, first campaign and then governing agenda. What does Democratic position on AI regulation? How do Democrats in general like begin to create a sense of what the the the center of the party, not like the centrists in the party, but the center of the party believes? And I think you're going to see a lot of work done on say Medicare for more policies, which are going to unite the the sort of more moderate and the more like left parts of the party. Um I think you're going to see a lot on AI. Um a lot beginning to be thought through on sort of, you know, prek and other forms of child care. So, how they balance it and particularly how they balance the first two, you know, confrontation and and compromise, that's going to be a lot of the a lot of the work. The the only other thing I'll say though is that when I look at the next two years, I think a lot is going to go sideways like in and and it's hard to predict exactly what, but the economy looks very shaky to me given how much is built on an AI capex boom which could very very very easily collapse into a market correction. Um, you have the Iran war, right, which could explode into something completely different or, you know, Israel could, you know, launch a gigantic round of new attacks. There have been talk about, you know, would Iran use chemical weapons? I mean, there's all kinds of ways that could go sideways even more so than it already has. There's Russia, Ukraine, there's AI, not from the economic standpoint, but, you know, rogue swarms of AIs hacking into China. There's China and Taiwan. There's Donald Trump's health. He's a 80-year-old um who's, you know, very, you know, increasingly discursive and all over the place. There's all the corruption around him. You know, there there is so much that is un你知道这让我想起什么吗？
英文原文
>> You know what it makes me think of?什么？
英文原文
>> What?这显得有点自命不凡，但我本身就是一个很自命不凡的人。[笑声] 这让我想起了雪莱的诗《1819年的英格兰》的第一句。看看我能不能念对：“一个年老、疯狂、受人鄙视且奄奄一息的国王。”这是开篇。接下去是：“王公贵族，沉闷大地的糟粕。”我可以一直念下去，但这首诗实际上与我们正在讨论的内容高度吻合，因为在全诗的结尾，在历数了参议院是多么可怕之后，他在结尾发问：将从中诞生何等光辉的幻影？这正是我们所讨论的。
此外还有特朗普的性格。我不知道该怎么称呼它。因为我不想推测——我不是医生，即便我是，我也不会妄言。但我觉得似乎正在发生某种解体，或者说一个本就未能很好地接触现实的人。
英文原文
>> Uh this is pretentious, but I'm a very pretentious person. [laughter] It makes me think of the first line of uh the Shelly poem um England in 1819. Uh let's see if I could do it right. It's an old mad despised and dying king. That's the beginning. Uh, you know, princes, dregs of the dull earth. I could go on, but that poem actually speaks to what we're talking about because at the end of it, he asks, you know, it goes through how horrible the Senate is, but then at the end of it, he asks, you know, what's the glorious phantom that's going to come from this, right? Which is what we're we're talking about. And also just Trump's personality.I don't know what to call it. Uh cuz I'm not going to speculate on on I'm not a doctor and I wouldn't if I were I wouldn't say but there's some kind of disintegration going on I guess or a man not in super great contact with reality to begin with.
你难道不觉得在倒影池发表的那场演讲是共和党人所需要的总结陈词吗？我只是觉得，如果你像我通常那样从某种历史和文学的框架来看待世界，焦虑之处——正如你刚才所清楚概述的——在于这是1912年，这是1913年，这是1914年——
英文原文
>> You don't feel like the reflecting pool speech was a closing argument Republicans needed. I I just am like if you look at the world in a sort of historical and literary frame as I tend to right the anxiety is and you just outlined it well that this is 1912 this is 1913 this is 1914这是2006年。
英文原文
>> this is 06而这些事情都在向我们逼近，对吧？然后这位总统并不——这么说吧，他是不善于变通的，对吧？正如你之前指出的，他不善于应对事态，他甚至似乎没有意识到这些事情正以其他人体验现实的方式发生。因此，事态不太可能进展得很顺利。
英文原文
>> and these things are all converging on us right and then the president is not let's just say he is not adaptable right he's not and you as you pointed out earlier he doesn't react to events he doesn't even seem to know they in the way that other people experience reality. And so that is unlikely to go super well.特朗普第二任期的权力运作与调查重心
而且在他第二任期的跛脚鸭阶段，他的幕僚团队也不会变得更好，对吧？
英文原文
>> And his staffing is not going to get better,对。
英文原文
>> right,其中一些人可能会被撤换，就像克里斯蒂·诺姆（Kristi Noem）等人一样，但新加入的人并不会让特朗普突然建立起一个“政敌团队”（team of rivals）。他不会突然开始听取别人的建议。因此，在第二任期——特别是在后半段——你通常面对的是一支精疲力竭、越来越无法挑战老板的幕僚团队。正如你所说，老板更加反复无常、更加狂躁。他并不执着于让共和党人在2028年获胜，他只是不想失去控制权。因此，共和党人越是试图在2028年获胜——
英文原文
>> in the lame duck period of his second term. And it some of these people might get shuffled out as some of them have like Christy Gnome, but the people who come in are not Trump is not going to suddenly surround himself with a team of rivals. He's not going to suddenly begin listening to people's advice. And so what you tend to have in the second, you know, particularly in a second term, particularly in the back half of it, is an exhausted staff, less able to challenge the boss. As you say, the boss is more erratic, more mad. He is not obsessed with Republicans winning in 2028. He does not want to lose control. And so the more Republicans try to win in 2020,按照你的理论，他反而希望他们输掉。
英文原文
>> your theory, he would like them to lose.我认为他是——
英文原文
>> I think he would在——
英文原文
>> in我认为他宁愿他们拥护着他而失败，是的。
英文原文
>> I think he would prefer them to lose while embracing him. Yeah.也不愿看到他们弃他而去而获胜。是的。
英文原文
>> Than to win while running away from him. Yeah.我认为这一点毫无疑问。
英文原文
>> I don't think there's any doubt about that.回到你关于调查和腐败的观点上，会有人说：“算了吧，别再弹劾他了。别做这个，别做那个。我们必须执政。”对吧？但这里的问题在于：首先是腐败、无能以及极其荒谬可憎的行径的严重程度。简直令人震惊。他们所做的那些事情简直令人难以置信。他们摧毁了——我是说，大量机构，比如美国国际开发署（USAID）、教育部以及消费者保护机构。我是说所有这些，还有移民问题，所有这些事情。那么你认为他们在调查和反腐败方面应该怎么做？
英文原文
>> To get to your point about investigation and corruption, there will be people who say, "Let it all go. Don't impeach him again. Don't do this. Don't do that. We have to govern." Right? But here's the problem with that. Uh first of all, there's the level of the corruption and uh incompetence and just grotesque grotesque behavior. Just staggering. like amazing stuff that they did. They destroyed I mean hu agencies that USAD and the department of education and the consumer protection. I mean all of that it's just right. There's that there's the immigration there's all these things. So what do you think they should do on the investigation corruption front?我不认为党内有人在说“不要调查”。我是说，我没听到过——我认为会有人——
英文原文
>> I don't think anybody in the party is saying don't investigate. I mean I've not I I think there's going to be“不要弹劾”。他们确实在这么说。
英文原文
>> don't impeach. They are saying that我们先不谈弹劾，因为他们现在不会去弹劾。对吧，那不是他们第一天的计划。他们一直在筹划的是调查。而他们在调查方面将面临的挑战，实际上在于可调查的目标太丰富了。国会的资源是可观的，但在特朗普政府中的腐败、渎职、违法等行为规模极其庞大。
为了产生切实效果，你必须把重点放在人们能够——公众能够开始在脑海中记住的少数几件事上。这也是约翰·奥索夫比许多其他人更擅长阐述腐败论点的原因之一。他倾向于一次只聚焦于一件小事，对吧？这让你能够把握整体与局部的关系。我希望他们至少在开始时作为主线组织起来的方式，并不是因为它在情绪上最令人满意或最重要，而是因为我认为它切实反映了美国人民真正关心的内容——那就是我希望他们“顺藤摸瓜查资金”（follow the money）。我想知道谁向特朗普政府购买了什么，谁向特朗普政府提供了什么。比如卡塔尔私人飞机事件，多少钱——
英文原文
>> let's hold impeachment aside because they're not going to impeach right now. Right. That's not their first day plan. What they've been planning for is investigation. And the challenge they're going to face on investigation is actually how target-rich the environment is. The resources of Congress are significant, but the amount of corruption, malfeasants, lawbreaking, etc. in the Trump administration is like so vast.In order to make anything stick, you need to focus on things people like a couple of things people can can can begin to hold in their minds. It's something that it's one reason John Oaf has been better at making the corruption argument than a lot of others. He tends to focus on one small thing at a time, right? It allows you to to kind of conceptualize a whole and a part. The way I hope they will do it as an organizing thread, at least at the beginning, not because it'll be the most emotionally satisfying or even important, but because I think it actually reflects like what the American people are interested in, is I want them to follow the money. I want to know who bought what from the Trump administration, who gave what to the Trump administration. Things like the Qatari jet, how much,
特朗普家族得到了多少钱？
英文原文
>> how much did the Trump family get,在这一切期间，有哪些合同落入了特朗普家族手中？贾里德·库什纳（Jared Kushner）的基金到底是怎么回事？我很想了解关于贾里德·库什纳基金的真实细节，该基金在海湾国家出资人中似乎非常受欢迎。
英文原文
>> what contracts went into Trump family hands during all this? What's going on with Jared Kushner's fund? I would love to know real details on that Jared Kushner fund that has seemed to be so popular among Gulf State funders.出奇地受欢迎。是的。
英文原文
>> Surprisingly popular. Yes.另一方面，不仅是“谁买了什么、他们得到了什么”，资金又流向了特朗普家族和特朗普同僚的哪些地方？对吧？当你在加油站、杂货店以及尝试买房时被狠狠盘剥的时候，他赚了多少亿美元？正是如此。不仅是他，小唐纳德、埃里克，对吧？他们的所有亲朋好友，史蒂夫·威特科夫（Steve Witkoff）的儿子，对吧？
英文原文
>> Um and on the flip, right, not just like who bought what, like what did they get? And then where has the money been going for the Trump family for Trump associates, right? as you've been getting hosed at the pump and in the grocery store and like at, you know, when you're trying to buy a home. How many billions of dollars has he made? Exactly. And not just him, Don Jr., Eric, right? All their friends and family, Steve Witoff's son,对吧？
英文原文
>> right?加密货币背后到底是怎么回事？有太多的资金在流转。对我来说，那是切入的起点。但正如你刚才所暗示的，关于不同机构内部违反了哪些法律，还存在所有这些其他问题。我并不是说他们不能做那些调查，但他们必须选择重点——
英文原文
>> What's going on with all the crypto, right? There is so much money that has been moving around to me like that is the place to start. But as you were kind of suggesting too, there's all these other questions about what laws are broken in different agencies and and I'm not saying they can't do that too, but they're going to have to choose what to focus以及设法恢复哪些机构，对吧？是尝试重启消费者金融保护局（CFPB）吗？你会在那里采取什么行动？
英文原文
>> well and which things to try to put back, right? Do you just try to reopen the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau? Do you what do you do there? IDOGE 领导层的挫败与亿万富翁的政治受挫
也许我们值得花点时间谈谈政府效率部（DOGE）的联合主席们身上发生了什么，对吧？埃隆·马斯克和维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy），我认为他们两人——[鼻息声]
维韦克在俄亥俄州州长选举中输给了艾米·阿克顿（Amy Acton），他打了一场极其——
英文原文
>> Well, there's that it's maybe we're spending a moment on what happened to the Doge co-chairs, right? Elon Musk and Vive Ramaswami uh who I think together like [snorts] Vive lost the Ohio governorship to Amy Actton running one of the most like阴暗且声名狼藉的竞选。
英文原文
>> grim and disreputable campaigns.噢，我还以为你要提那则广告呢，因为那是有史以来最糟糕的东西。对于没有关注这件事的人来说，他播出了一则广告，其中阿克顿疏远的母亲声称艾米·阿克顿是个骗子，暗示艾米·阿克顿就遭到继父性侵一事撒了谎，而对此其实有非常充分的证据。令人作呕，完全是可耻的行为。
英文原文
>> Oh, I thought you were going to say the ad cuz that was the worst thing ever. the the ad for people who didn't follow this where he had an add-on from her estranged mother who said Amy Actton is a liar and what she was suggesting Amy Actton lied about was being sexually abused by her stepfather of which there was quite good evidence um grotesque like just reprehensible behavior拉马斯瓦米本来就已经走在输掉那场选举的轨道上，但他输掉了它，并且——
英文原文
>> um Ramos is already on track to lose that election but you know he's lost it and是的，毫无疑问被逐出了公共生活。
英文原文
>> yeah drummed out of public life no question然后是埃隆·马斯克，这个选举周期历史上最大的单一捐助者。
英文原文
>> so then and then Elon Musk single largest donor in history in this cycle.也才5亿美元而已。
英文原文
>> It's only $500 million.我的意思是，对他来说根本不算什么。
英文原文
>> I mean, for him, it's like nothing.你在说什么呢？
英文原文
>> What are you talking about?但问题不仅在于那笔钱没起作用，或者看起来没起太大作用。其中极大一部分花在了德克萨斯州。而在全美范围内，没有任何地方像德克萨斯州那样让共和党人遭遇全面溃败。如果你以此为职业，蓝潮德克萨斯的梦想——或者最初看似蓝潮德克萨斯的幻想——几十年来一直生生不息。
英文原文
>> But it's not just that that money didn't do anything or it doesn't appear to have done very much. A huge amount of it was spent in Texas. And there is nowhere there is nowhere in the country that Republicans collapsed like they did in Texas. If you do this for a living, right, the dream of Blue Texas has or really what appeared to be at first the fantasy of Blue Texas has been alive and well for decades.是的。
英文原文
>> Yeah.而现在它变成了现实。
英文原文
>> And now it's here.几十年来一直存在却并不顺遂。[笑声]
英文原文
>> Alive and unwell for decades. [laughter]那个幻想一直存在。但现在它来了，希望之前曾一再破灭。但马斯克投入了巨额资金，那笔资金中的极大一部分——当然是其中的绝大部分——特别流向了德克萨斯州。
英文原文
>> The fantasy was alive was alive. But here it is, but hopes kept getting dashed. But Musk spent a tremendous amount of money. A large amount of that money. Certainly plurality of it went into Texas specifically.我不确定它——我甚至认为不仅是没有买来任何东西，我认为它——
英文原文
>> And I'm not sure it I I would go further than it it bought him nothing. I think it不，它起到了反作用。
英文原文
>> No, it hurt.它带来了伤害。对吧。人们不喜欢自己的选举被金钱收买。
英文原文
>> It hurt. Right. People don't like their elections being bought.选票上实际上摆着两种形式的个人独裁统治，对吧？特朗普的和他的，而两者都被击溃了。
英文原文
>> There were two forms of one-man rule on the ballot, right? Trump's and his and they both got crushed.马斯克本人以及他的许多企业都搬到了德克萨斯州。因此，马斯克的问题在未来将是一个非常值得关注的问题。
英文原文
>> And Musk has moved himself and a lot of his cooperations to Texas. Uh so the question of Musk is going to be a very interesting one going forward.是的，关于马斯克有很多话可说。我希望这意味著当你接近、甚至不仅仅是接近，将白人至上主义或者白人主导地位作为核心理念时，你会遭遇失败。我希望事实确是如此。
英文原文
>> The uh yeah, I mean there's a lot to say about Musk. I hope this means that when you verge or maybe more than verge on, you know, white supremacy or certainly white dominance as your central idea that you'll fail like I hope that's true.还有机器人对人类的取代，以及——
英文原文
>> And replacement of human beings by robots and人类被取代的想法可能也大受欢迎。
英文原文
>> replacement of human beings might also be hugely popular.同样不妙，对吧？人工智能数据中心是一个重大的选举议题，对吧？精英层可能没有给予应有的关注。
英文原文
>> Also not great, right? The AI centers are a huge electoral issue, right? That elites are maybe not focused on as much as they should be.我觉得他们在这次选举中相当关注这个议题。民主党人在多大程度上把这个作为竞选主题：谢罗德·布朗（Sherrod Brown）在俄亥俄州与休斯特德（Husted）竞争时大力拿数据中心做文章；德克萨斯州的肯·奥霍萨（Ken Hosa）在数据中心议题上进行了强力攻击；阿卜杜勒·赛义德也以此为纲领竞选。选票上有几十项暂停建设数据中心的倡议，我认为到目前为止，除了一个之外，其他每一个都通过了。
英文原文
>> I mean, I think they're pretty focused on in this election. Right. They like the amount that Democrats ran on that. I mean, Sherid Brown running against Husted in Ohio ran heavily on data centers. Ken Hosa in Texas ran aggressively on data centers. Abdul sayed ran on data centers. I mean, so there were dozens of of data center moratoriums on the ballot and I think so far every single one of them except for one has passed.特朗普主义的消解与意识形态争论
恰恰是反常证明了常态。那么，谈点幕后花絮。你在2021年1月6日那一周来到了《纽约时报》。显然我们在我的第一周就已经认识了，但那是你在《时报》的第一周——1月6日那一周。那实际上构成了对特朗普第二任期的定金。[清嗓子] 这也使得这个时代比原本可能的情况更加成为“特朗普时代”。这是否终于标志着特朗普主义走向终结的开端？这绝对是特朗普本人终结的开端，对吧？无论如何他两年后都会离任。但这是不是——
英文原文
>> The exception that proves the rule. So, a little inside baseball. Uh you came to the New York Times the week of January 6th, 2021. You and I had already met obviously my first week, but his first week at your first week at the times of January 6th. That was effectively the down payment [clears throat] on the second Trump term. It also made this even more the Trump era than it might have been. Is this finally the beginning of the end of Trumpism? It's definitely the beginning of the end of Trump, right? He's out in two years no matter what. But is it根本不存在特朗普主义。从来都只有特朗普本人。也就是说，各色右翼知识分子和伪知识分子——
英文原文
>> There's no Trumpism. There was only ever Trump. which is to say that the work that various right-wing intellectuals and pseudointellectuals重点在“伪”。
英文原文
>> emphasis on pseudo试图围绕唐纳德·特朗普的冲动拼凑出一套条理，并从中提炼出他试图推行关税的逻辑，比如一个高度结构化的关税制度把制造业带回美国会是什么样子，那完全是一场失败。唐纳德·特朗普的关税是疯狂的。声称特朗普标志着新保守主义在中东干预外交政策时代的终结，这也是一场失败。特朗普并不同意你们的看法，那不是特朗普主义。一次又一次，一直有人试图定义什么是特朗普主义，但特朗普本人根本不会坚持其中任何一项。
这也是这一切彻底崩盘的原因之一，我认为这也是为什么右翼内部的内斗最终会如此惨烈的原因之一，因为你仍然会遇到那帮坚称“真正的特朗普主义从未被尝试过”的人。你昨晚就已经看到这种情况在发生——
英文原文
>> tried to do to paint a coherence around Donald Trump's impulses and extract from that what he was going to try to do with a tariff say right what a a highly structured tariff regime to bring manufacturing back to America would look like that was a failure Donald Trump's tariffs were insane Trump is an end of the neo con middle east meddling era in foreign policy a failure. Trump did not agree with you. That was not Trumpism. Over and over and over and over again, there have been these efforts to say what Trumpism is. But Trump himself would not hold to any of them.And so one reason all of this collapsed and one reason I think the infighting of it on the right is ultimately going to be so vicious is because you're still going to have the real Trumpism has never been tried people. You already saw this happening on
昨晚就在上演，MAGA 群体都在喊——
英文原文
>> it was happening last night the MAGA people were all like“新保守派，都是新保守派搞的鬼”。谁是新保守派？是特朗普自己搞的。
英文原文
>> the neocons the neocons. Who are the neocons? It was Trump.确实。
英文原文
>> Yeah.并不是马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）让你们卷入伊朗的，是唐纳德·特朗普本人与本雅明·内塔尼亚胡一起卷入伊朗的。那不是比尔·克里斯托尔（Bill Kristol）。你在开玩笑吗？这简直荒谬。J·D·万斯（JD Vance）大概会作为政治牺牲品去竞选总统，并声称“这才是特朗普主义本应有的面貌”，对吧？有这种——
英文原文
>> Marco Rubio didn't get you into Iran. It was Donald Trump himself with Benjamin Netanyahu who got into Iran. That wasn't Bill Crystal. You kidding me? It's ridiculous. JD Vance is gonna, you know, presumably run for president as a human sacrifice to say this is what Trumpism could have been, right? There's特朗普主义，去掉了战争的纯粹版本。
英文原文
>> Trumpism right without the war.这就是他的全部观点，对吧？J·D·万斯本可以成为特朗普政府的产业神经中枢。他最终并没有成为那个核心，但也许他会以此为旗号参选。问题是，没有人在真正觉得万斯主义——如果真叫这个名字的话——具有吸引力。J·D·万斯当年参选时在俄亥俄州并不是势不可挡的选举强人，他的表现极其欠佳，而且他现在也不受欢迎。因此，右翼运动将试图弄清楚接下来能走向何方，而这种角逐——尤其是在众议院和参议院之外的角逐——已经即将开始。[倒吸气]
关键在于，特朗普只在乎自己的控制权，他并不在乎意识形态。特朗普需要的是效忠，他不需要一致性或连贯性。他不是一个理念型的人物。因此在这一点上——
英文原文
>> This is his whole view, right? The JD Vance could have been the industrial nerve center of the Trump administration. He wasn't in the end, but maybe he'll run as that. The problem is nobody actually thinks Vanceism, which is what that really is, is appealing. JD Vance was not a electoral juggernaut in Ohio when he ran. He underperformed terribly and he's not popular now. And so the movement is going to be to try to figure out like what can come after. And that jocking particularly outside of the House and the Senate is already going to begin. [gasps]And the the the key thing is Trump cares about his control. He doesn't care about his ideology. Trump wants fieldalty. He doesn't want consistence or coherence. He's not an ideas guy. And so in that way,
他只想让家人免于牢狱之灾，保住他们的利润，对吧？但每个人都知道这是事实。共和党全党都知道这是事实。
英文原文
>> like he wants to keep his family out of jail, keep their keep their profits, right? But everybody knows it to be true. The Republican party all knows it to be true.你不觉得他在家里读帕特里克·德尼恩（Patrick Deneen）的著作吗？[笑声]
英文原文
>> You don't think he's home reading Patrick Denine? [laughter]我不认为他在家里读帕特里克·德尼恩。
英文原文
>> I don't think he's home reading Patrick Denine.败选反思与“爱邻如己联盟”的兴起
好吧。[鼻息声] 在我们结束之前，我想问你一件事。我在来这里的路上正在和一位朋友发短信，她是一位历史学家。我告诉她我要做什么，她说：“好吧，但别——正如我母亲常说的，不要幸灾乐祸。”你知道，我不想幸灾乐祸，但我确实想聚焦于一些我们很高兴看到其终结的人，那些在昨晚输掉选举的人。我先说第一个：那就是苏珊·柯林斯。她戴着温和派的面具，对吧？而且在选情胶着时，她是向共和党投反对票可能性最高的参议员，但那也只有15%、16%、17%，对吧？大部分时间她都跟党派站在一起。由于法院人员构成的改变，她是破坏妇女选择权 [鼻息声] 的主要推手，我非常、非常高兴看到她离场。[笑声]
你最高兴看到谁离场？
英文原文
>> Yeah. Okay. [snorts] Um before we go, uh I want to ask you something. So I was on my way here. I was texting with a friend of mine who's a well she's a historian. I and um she was saying I was telling her what I was doing and she was like okay but don't don't you know as my mother always used to say don't gloat and I you know I don't want to gloat but I do want to focus on something uh people that we are very glad to see the end of who lost last night um so I'm going to go first uh and that is Susan Collins she has the mask of the moderate right and she did she voted when when things were close she the most likely senator to vote against Republicans, but that's still 15 16 17% right most of the time she voted with them and she was the chief enabler of the destruction of [snorts] women's right to choose because of the change in the court and I'm very very happy to see her go. [laughter]Who are you happy to see go?
我认为，看到政客和政治策略遭遇失败最让我感到高兴的地方，是当他们毫不掩饰地将残忍置于首位之时。我认为这恰如其分地描述了德克萨斯州的肯·帕克斯顿——
英文原文
>> I think that the place where I am happiest to see politicians and political tactics fail is when they frontload unabashed cruelty. And I think that describes Ken Paxton in Texas确实如此。
英文原文
>> definitely以及不道德。我认为在某种可能的世界里他本可以打一场体面得多的竞选，但这并不是他最终置身的世界。俄亥俄州的维韦克·拉马斯瓦米；我认为还有堪萨斯州的罗杰·马歇尔，以及他向自己的病人施加的极其残忍的利息，对吧？他收取的18%的利率，这简直——
英文原文
>> and and immorality. I think there's a world where he ran a much more honorable campaign than this, but it's not the world he ended up living in. Vivec Ramaswami in Ohio. I think Roger Marshall in Kansas and the way that he like the incredibly cruel interest he like imposed upon his own patients, right? The the 18% interest rates he had. It's令人震惊。
英文原文
>> just amazing.一位妇产科医生。与此相反的一面——因为我更多思考的是谁赢了让我高兴，而不是谁输了让我高兴——相反的一面是，我真的、真的、真的对宗教左翼的崛起感到非常有兴趣和乐观。这种宗教左翼和道德主义左翼的复兴，对吧？一个有兴趣并且能够运用美德语言发声的左翼。詹姆斯·塔拉里科、亚当·汉密尔顿、阿卜杜勒·赛义德，以及约翰·奥索夫，他非常擅长以充满美德语言的圣经韵律发表演讲。我认为当前政治中的巨大机遇之一，就是在唐纳德·特朗普留下的道德废墟中，重建一种明确具有道德内涵的政治。
英文原文
>> And the flip OBGYn and the flip of that because I'm I I think more about who I'm happy one than who I'm happy lost. The flip of that is I am really really really is I am really interested and optimistic about this rise of a religious left. This revival of a religious left and a moralistic left, right? A left that is interested and able to speak in a language of virtue. James Telerico, Adam Hamilton, Abdul Elsa, um, and John Of is really good at speaking in a biblical cadence thick with language of virtue. I think one of the giant opportunities in in politics right now is to rebuild a politics that is explicitly moral within the moral wreckage of Donald Trump.是的。这是对他们堕落的自动调节性反应（thermostatic response），对吧。
英文原文
>> Yeah. It's a thermostatic response to their depravity and right我对那些正在摸索如何做到这一点的候选人非常感兴趣，我特别认为塔拉里科、汉密尔顿、赛义德和奥索夫 [鼻息声] 这个群体——
英文原文
>> I'm quite interested in the candidates who are figuring out how to do that and I particularly think the Telerico Hamilton Elsa Of [snorts] like这个阵营。
英文原文
>> group there拥有那种道德话语体系，而相对较少的其他人具备这一点。
英文原文
>> has has that moral language in a way relatively few of the others do给它起个名字吧。你总是喜欢给事物起名字，对吧？我们称之为“爱邻如己联盟”（love thy neighbor coalition）。
英文原文
>> let's give it a name you always like to give thing things a name right we'll call it the love thy neighbor coalition[笑声]
英文原文
>> [laughter]我想今天就到这里吧。是的。
英文原文
>> And we'll call it a day, I think. Yeah.阿伦·拉迪卡，非常感谢你。
英文原文
>> Aaron Reica, thank you very much.非常感谢，埃兹拉。
英文原文
>> Thanks a lot, Ezra.[音乐]
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