引言:金融界的远见者与阿波罗的崛起
Nicolai: 大家好,我是挪威银行投资管理公司(Norges Bank Investment Management: 挪威主权财富基金,管理挪威政府全球养老基金)的首席执行官尼古拉·坦根。今天,我们有幸邀请到金融界的真正远见者马克·罗文(Marc Rowan),他是阿波罗全球管理公司(Apollo Global Management: 全球领先的另类资产管理公司之一)的联合创始人,该公司是全球最具影响力的另类资产管理公司(Alternative Asset Management Firm: 投资于股票、债券等传统资产之外的资产,如私募股权、对冲基金、房地产等)之一。
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Hi everyone, I'm Nicolai Tangen, the CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, and today we are joined by a true visionary in the world of Finance, Mark Rowan, who co-founded Apollo Global Management, which is one of the most influential alternative Asset Management firms in the world.
我们很幸运地拥有阿波罗略低于2%的股份,这相当于不到15亿美元。马克,很高兴您能来。
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Now we are the lucky owner of just under 2% of Apollo, which works out at just under one and a half billion dollars. Mark, thrill to be here, great.
Marc: 谢谢,谢谢您的邀请,希望您是一位满意的股东。
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Thanks, thanks for coming and hopefully you're a happy shareholder.
阿波罗的成长与金融格局的变迁
Nicolai: 马克,在1984年,您曾说:“天哪,我来得太晚了,所有的钱都已经被赚走了。”那时您刚从商学院毕业。几年后,阿波罗的资产管理规模(Assets Under Management, AUM: 基金或金融机构所管理的总资产价值)达到了6800亿美元,市值(Market Cap: 公司所有流通股的总价值)超过800亿美元。所以我想我们可以说,那句话并不十分准确。
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Mark, in um 1984, you said, "God, I'm just too late, all the money has been made." You came out of business school. Now a few years later, uh you have assets under management at Apollo of 680 billion and the market cap is more than 80 billion, so I think we can say that was a not a very accurate statement.
Marc: 嗯,我认为它当时是准确的,因为它反映了当时的业务状况。因为我不仅在84年说过,90年也说过,2001年又说过。关键在于,在某些方面,我确实错过了当时已经完成的业务。但有趣的是,这份工作本身一直在变化。2008年,我们的AUM是400亿美元,事实上,我们行业中几乎所有其他大型公司当时规模也大致相同。然后,13、14年后,我们的AUM现在已经超过7000亿美元,情况发生了变化。
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Well, I I think it was accurate because it reflected the business at the time, cuz not only did I say it in '84, I said it in 90 and I said it again in 2001 and the point being in some ways I was too late for the business that had been done, but the interesting thing part of the interesting part of the job is it keeps changing. I mean, you've 2008, we were 40 billion of AUM, in fact almost every other large firm in our industry today was roughly the same size and then 13, 14 years later, we're now up to over 700 billion of AUM, something changed.
这显然不是我们自身技能和才能的结果,我们必须顺应主流。
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It's clearly not as a result of our skill and talent, we had to be in the mainstream.
Nicolai: 嗯,技能和才能是有帮助的,对吧?
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Well, skill and talent helps, right?
Marc: 嗯,你看,技能和才能在于确保我们通过正确地定位业务,使其拥有顺风(Tailwinds: 指有利的经济或市场趋势,能推动企业或行业发展)助力。但根本性的变革最终才是推动我们业务发展的动力。
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Well, look, the skill and talent is to make sure we're positioned with Tailwinds behind us by positioning the business the right way, but fundamental change is ultimately what powered our business.
但如果您回溯到您的第一份工作,德崇证券(Drexel Burnham: 曾是美国一家著名的投资银行,以其在垃圾债券市场的创新而闻名,后于1990年破产),它在1990年破产了,然后您决定创立阿波罗。当时是出于什么考虑?
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But if you go back to uh your first job, Drexel, um Drexel went bust in 1990 and then you decided to found Apollo, how what was the thinking?
Marc: 嗯,创立一家新公司,一个巨大的动力就是失业。所以把1990年想象成2008年——在经济衰退、金融市场崩溃、纽约银行危机、德克萨斯银行危机以及金融系统发生根本性变革的背景下,成为一名失业的投资银行家并不是一件好事。幸运的是,当时我职业生涯尚早,那是一个进行创业的绝佳时机。
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Well, it's uh founding a new company, the a great motivator is to be unemployed, so think of 1990 as 2008, uh to be an unemployed investment banker in the middle of a recession, a financial markets collapse, New York banking crisis, Texas banking crisis, a fundamental change of the financial system was not a great thing. Fortunately, it was early in my career and it was a great time to just do something entrepreneurial.
创办公司需要什么?需要一点运气。我在1984年到1990年的六年间,一直在磨练我的技艺,所以我对这个行业显然有所了解。但人必须谦逊,并接受运气在其中扮演了相当大的角色,因为我当时在德崇证券的工作其实很开心。在某些方面,被强制做出改变是我经历过的最好的事情。
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What does it take to start the firm? It it takes a little bit of luck. Look, I had spent the prior six years from 84 until 90 mastering my craft, so clearly I knew something about the business, but one has to be humble and actually accept that there's a fair degree of luck because I was actually quite happy doing what I was doing at Drexel Burum. In some ways, the single best thing that ever happened to me was to be forced to make a change.
Nicolai: 您认为今天成立一家公司需要同样的技能,还是需要一套不同的技能?
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Do you think he would take the same type of skill to setup today or is it a different skill set required?
Marc: 我认为,这取决于您今天的抱负规模。如果您看看今天所需的东西,我认为成立一家新的金融服务公司要困难得多。事实上,我认为今天的市场结构将导致公司要么非常小,要么非常大。我认为,在未来,处于中间位置将是一个非常艰难的境地。
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I think it's well, it depends on the scale of your ambition today, um if you look at what's required today, I I think it is much much more difficult to set up a new Financial Services firm, in fact, I think the structure of the market today will result in firms that are very small and firms that are very large. I think it is going to be a very tough place to be in the middle.
阿波罗的业务模式:退休服务与资产发起
Nicolai: 用几句话概括一下,阿波罗到底做什么?
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In a few sentences, what do you actually do at a PO if you look at them?
Marc: 描述我们业务的最佳方式是思考我们如何雇用员工。如果您看看资产管理业务,我们在资产管理部门有3000名员工。然后是退休服务(Retirement Services: 为个人和机构提供退休规划、养老金管理、年金等服务)业务,我们在退休服务部门有1500名员工。此外,阿波罗还有4000名不持有阿波罗名片,而是从事信贷发起工作的员工。
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The best way to describe what we do is to think about uh how we employ people so if you look at the asset management business, we are 3,000 people in Asset Management, then you look at the Retirement Services business where 1500 people in Retirement services and then there are 4,000 other people at Apollo who do not carry an Apollo business card but instead originate credit.
这意味着什么?想想15或20年前的通用电气金融服务公司(GE Capital: 通用电气旗下的金融服务部门,曾是全球最大的非银行金融公司之一)。在我成长时期,GE Capital被认为是高级担保私人信贷(Senior Secured Private Credit: 指向企业提供的、由特定资产担保的、在偿付顺位上具有优先权的非公开信贷)的最佳发起者。他们利用在医疗设备和飞机领域的专业知识,成为了一家非常优秀的贷款机构。我们本质上也是这样做的。我们有车队融资业务、飞机融资业务、证券化融资(Securitization Finance: 将缺乏流动性的资产打包成可在金融市场交易的证券,以获取资金的融资方式)业务。这一切都围绕着信贷发起,因为发起是我们业务的命脉。
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What does that mean? Well, think about what the old GE Capital was 15 or 20 years ago, certainly as I was coming up, GE Capital was thought of as the single best originator of senior secured private credit. They used their expertise in and medical devices and aircraft to become a really good lender, that's essentially what we've done. We have a fleet Finance business, we have an aircraft Finance business, we have a securitization Finance business, it is all about the origination of credit because origination is the lifeblood of our business.
所以您问阿波罗今天是什么?阿波罗是两项业务。一方面,不太为人所知的是退休服务业务。在2008年,我们有一个想法,要建立一个新的金融机构,这个金融机构是一家保险公司,它不承保人们的生命、健康或财产,它只承保人们的退休。这项业务最初资本化(Capitalized: 指将成本记录为资产而非费用,或为企业提供资金)了1600万美元,现在连同其欧洲分支机构,已达到4000亿美元,每年有机增长700亿美元,是迄今为止全球最大的退休服务公司。
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So you say what is Apollo today? Apollo is two businesses, on the one hand, the business that is not as well known is the Retirement Services business, aen 2008 would would use that up with Partners, yes, but in 2008 we had an idea to set up a new financial institution and this financial institution was an insurance company and the insurance company did not ensure people's life, People's Health, people's property, it only ensured their retirement. That business which was initially capitalized with $16 million is now with its European affiliate now $400 billion, growing 70 billion a year organically and is by far the largest Retirement services company in the world world.
事实证明,我们在这项业务中所做的事情,因为如果您思考退休的本质,它本质上是一项固定收益业务。人们希望获得有保障的终身收入,或在一定时期内获得有保障的收入,或者他们正在为退休储蓄,或者他们的养老金需要得到保障。要从事这项业务,您必须拥有非常高的评级,因为您处理的是人们的退休金,因此您必须拥有非常安全的资产。
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And it turns out what we did in that business because if you think about what retirement is, it's essentially a fixed income business, people want guaranteed lifetime income or guaranteed income for a period of time or they're saving for retirement or their pension needs to be guaranteed to be in that business. You have to be very highly rated because you're dealing with people's retirement and therefore you have to have very safe assets.
我们在这项业务中取得成功所需的,是投资级固定收益(Investment Grade Fixed Income: 指信用评级高、违约风险较低的债券或其他固定收益产品),但要有利差。我们从一个基本观点出发,即公共市场,特别是公共固定收益市场,不提供阿尔法(Alpha: 指投资组合在扣除市场风险(Beta)后获得的超额收益)。所以如果您的整个商业模式都依赖于固定收益阿尔法,而它又不存在,您该怎么办?
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What we needed to be successful in that business was investment grade fixed income, but with a spread and we start with a baseline view that public markets particularly public fixed income Market markets offer no Alpha, so if your entire business model is dependent on fixed income Alpha and there is none, what do you do?
嗯,您就建立资产发起能力(Origination Capability: 指金融机构识别、评估并创造新的金融资产(如贷款、债券)的能力),最初是为了服务自身。这就是我们进入信贷发起领域的原因。然后您意识到您希望实现多元化,您不希望承担任何一项风险的100%,您希望每项风险都占25%,而不是100%集中于某一项。因此,我们并排建立了一个客户业务,最初是其他保险公司、捐赠基金(Endowments: 通常由大学、医院等非营利机构设立,用于长期投资以支持其运营的基金)、养老基金(Pension Funds: 为员工退休提供福利的基金)、个人以及传统的客户群。发起投资级信贷的能力是阿波罗的核心。
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Well, you build the origination capability to service initially yourself and that's what got us into credit origination and then you realize that you want to be Diversified, you don't want 100% of any risk you originate, you want 25% of everything and 100% of nothing, so we built a client business side by side initially other other insurance companies, endowments, Pension funds, individuals and a traditional client base. The capacity to originate investment grade credit is at the heart of what Apollo is.
所以我们是什么?我们是一家退休服务保险公司,然后我们是一家资产管理公司。然而,资产管理业务反映了我刚才所说的。在所谓的7000亿美元中,有5500亿美元是信贷,其中大部分是投资级信贷,还有1500亿美元是股权,分为两种形式:一种是传统的私募股权(Private Equity: 指投资于非上市公司股权或进行公司并购的基金),大约1000亿美元;另一种是混合股权(Hybrid Equity: 指介于债务和股权之间的金融工具,具有两者的某些特征),这里的“混合”不是指银行混合型证券,而是指介于债务和股权之间的风险中点。
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So what are we? We're a Retirement Services insurance company and then we're an asset manager, the asset management business though reflects pretty much what I've just said of the call it 700 billion, 550 billion is credit, most of which is investment grade and 150 billion is equity in two flavors, one a traditional private Equity business which is about hundred billion and the other a hybrid Equity business, hybrid not in the sense of Bank hybrids but hybrid being the midpoint of risk between debt and Equity.
私人信贷与银行:不断变化的金融格局
Nicolai: 马克,人们一直非常关注你们如何通过与公司直接交易来取代银行。那么,你们正在从银行那里“抢走”或者说正在做哪些原本由银行完成的业务呢?
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Mark, there's been a lot of focus on how you are replacing Banks through direct deals with uh with companies now what kind of um business are you uh in a way taking away from the or uh doing instead of them?
Marc: 嗯,我认为这其实有点用词不当。媒体喜欢报道银行和投资者争夺私人信贷的说法,但我认为我们必须从定义开始。什么是私人信贷?对大多数人来说,它意味着杠杆贷款(Levered Lending: 指向高负债公司提供的贷款,通常风险较高)或直接贷款(Direct Lending: 指非银行机构直接向企业提供贷款),这是一种低于投资级的活动。是的,确实绝大多数杠杆贷款过去都是在银行系统内发起的,现在则在银行系统和投资市场(Investment Marketplace: 指各种金融工具(如股票、债券、衍生品等)进行交易的市场)之间分摊。是的,我们也参与这项业务,但这在我们业务中占比很小。
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Well, I think it's actually a bit of a misnomer, the Press likes to report on this notion of Banks and investors fighting over private credit, but I think we have to start with a definition what is private credit? Well, for most people it means levered lending or direct lending which is a below investment grade activity and yes, it is true that the vast majority of levered loans used to be originated in the banking system and now they are split between being originated in the banking system and being originated in the investment Marketplace and yes, we are engaged in that business, but it is a very small part of our business.
我认为金融评论员和其他市场参与者普遍错过了更大的趋势。对我来说,私人信贷涵盖了银行资产负债表上几乎所有的资产:给客户的贷款是私人的,给公司的贷款是私人的,给项目的贷款是私人的,等等。绝大多数私人信贷都是投资级的。所以我们现在来看,我们是否在取代银行?通常不是。
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I think generally financial pundits and other Market participants are M missing the bigger Trend, to me private credit encompasses almost every asset on a bank balance sheet, a loan to a customer, private, a loan to a company, private, a loan to a project, private and so on and so on and the vast vast majority of private credit is investment grade, so we look and now say are we replacing the banks generally not.
Nicolai: 你们也在和银行合作,对吧?您刚才提到与花旗银行(Citibank)达成了一笔大交易。
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You're also working with the banks, right? You just said a big deal with City Bank.
Marc: 这就是重点,而且它会混合搭配。银行在做某些事情方面确实非常擅长。想想看,银行是短期融资,长期放贷。银行并不是真正长期资本的绝佳来源。想想我们今天借钱是为了什么?我们借钱是为了基础设施、能源转型、下一代数据和电力,所有这些都是真正的长期资产。这些资产通常不适合银行的资产负债表。
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This is the this is the point and again, it will mix and match the a bank is actually really really good at doing some things, think of it a bank is funded short and lent long, a bank is not a great source of really long-term capital and think about what we're borrowing money for today. We're borrowing money for infrastructure, for energy transition, for Next Generation data and power, all really long-term assets. These are not the ideal assets for a bank balance sheet.
通常它们会进入投资级债券市场,但它们也不太适合投资级债券市场,因为它们通常是复杂的项目或以某种方式结构化的。我们正在做的是,将真正的长期保险负债与真正的长期投资级信贷交易对手进行匹配,并成为资本提供者。因为在几乎所有金融系统中,信贷只有两个来源:要么来自银行系统,要么来自投资市场,没有第三种选择。
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Typically they would go to the investment grade bond market, but they happen not to be great assets for the investment grade bond market either because they are generally complex projects or structured in some way. What we are doing is, we are matching really long-term Insurance liabilities with really long-term investment grade counterparties in credit and becoming a provider of capital because in almost every Financial system there are only two sources of credit, it comes from the banking system or from the investment Marketplace, there's no third choice.
世界各地的监管机构出于某种原因,决定银行应该做得更少,而投资者应该做得更多。在投资者做得更多的这部分中,投资级部分,特别是那些不太适合投资级公共市场的部分,正是我们非常擅长做的。
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Around the world, for whatever reason, Regulators have decided that Banks should do less and investors should do more and of that piece that investors do more, the investment grade piece, particularly the piece that is not well suited to the IG Public Market is what we have really come to do very very well.
Nicolai: 银行擅长什么?
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What do banks do well?
Marc: 银行是运营密集型、短期导向的。任何真正涉及运营或以客户为中心的事情,他们都做得更好。
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Banks are operationally intensive, shorter term, anything that is really operational or client Centric, the better picking credit.
Nicolai: 您认为信贷选择呢?
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Do you think I wouldn't think so?
Marc: 我不这么认为。我们的信贷记录可以与任何银行相媲美。
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Our credit record stands up uh to I'd say any Bank out there.
Nicolai: 但您会认为,在一百年的经验中,他们应该学到了一些在十年内不容易学到的东西。
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But you would have thought that during hundred years of experience, they would have learned something that is not that easy to learn in a 10-year period.
Marc: 我的猜测是,一百年前在那里的人现在已经不在了,尼古拉。这些最终都与人有关。是的,如果我再次思考资产管理公司和投资者(抱歉)与银行之间正在演变的伙伴关系,我对银行说的是:我们不想要银行想要的东西。我们不想要银行的客户。因为如果您思考资产管理公司的结构,我们想要的是资产。我们无法提供客户的并购咨询、股权咨询、资本市场咨询、对冲、衍生品、外汇、支付、托管、信用卡——所有这些服务都不是我们能提供的,也不是我们想提供的。
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Or my guess is the same people who were there 100 years ago are no longer here, Nikolai and these are all ultimately about people, yeah, and if I think again, I think about the partnership that is evolving between asset managers and investors, excuse me, and Banks, thing I say to Banks, we do not want what the bank wants, we don't want the bank's client because if you think about the structure of an asset manager, we want the asset, we are incapable of providing the client m&a advice, Equity advice, Capital markets advice, hedging, derivatives, foreign exchange, payments, custody, credit cards, this whole bundle of services is not something that we can provide nor is it something we want to provide.
所以银行想要客户,如果他们失去一个客户给另一家银行,他们就失去了所有的服务。如果银行失去一项资产,他们只是失去这项资产。在新的资本制度下,在许多情况下,银行不再想要这项资产。
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So the bank wants the client, if they lose a client to another bank, they lose all the services, if a bank loses an asset, they just lose the asset and in the new capital regimes in many instances, the banks no longer want the asset.
Nicolai: 您认为什么时候会受到全面监管?
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When do you think you'll be fully regulated?
Marc: 我们为什么要受到全面监管?贝莱德(BlackRock)为什么不受全面监管?挪威银行为什么不受全面监管?我们正在做什么会引起监管?我会回到这个问题。我们接受存款吗?不。我们进行期限转换(Maturity Transformation: 指金融机构通过借入短期资金并贷出长期资金来创造流动性的过程)吗?不。我们能接触到财政部吗?不。
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Why would we be fully regulated? Why would Black Rock not be fully regulated? Why would noris not be fully regulated? What is it we're we're doing that gives rise to regulation and I'll come back, do we take deposits? No. Do we do maturity transformation? No. Do we have access to the treasury? No.
Nicolai: 但您不认为在某个阶段,嗯,您需要对一家大公司进行,你知道,止赎,而监管机构会非常不满,他们会像在许多情况下那样过度监管吗?
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But don't you think at some stage, um you need to do you know for close on uh a big company and uh The Regulators will be quite upset and they would over regulate like they do in many cases, foreclose on a big company?
Marc: 对一家大公司进行止赎?我真的不知道那意味着什么。所以再次思考我们所做的。我们处于市场的投资级末端。如果我们在投资级市场的末端进行止赎,我向您保证,全世界都会陷入绝对的混乱。是的,止赎是Pimco(太平洋投资管理公司)、BlackRock(贝莱德)、Fidelity(富达)以及其他所有公司都在做的事情,这并非阿波罗商业模式或我们所做事情的独有之处。在投资级领域,您会期望它有所不同。
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I I don't really know what that means, so again, think about what we do, we're at the investment grade end of the marketplace, if we're foreclosing in the investment great end of the marketplace, I assure you there is absolute chaos everywhere in the world, yeah, foreclosing is something that Pimco does that black rock does that Fidelity does that everyone else does, it is not unique to Apollo's business model or what we do an investment grade, you would expect it to be different.
我与世界各地的许多监管机构会面,我回到这个更广泛的主题:信贷可以来自投资者或银行。在美国,银行贷款已降至整个市场不到30%的份额,而在欧洲仍为65%。在欧洲,他们对银行的挤压比美国更甚,例如巴塞尔协议III终局(Basel 3 Endgame: 指巴塞尔协议III的最终修订方案,旨在提高银行的资本充足率和流动性,减少系统性风险)等。但与此同时,他们并没有放松对投资者方面的管制。欧洲遭受资本赤字并不令我感到惊讶。
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I meet with lots of regulators around the world and I come back to this broader theme, credit can come from investors or Banks, y in the US Bank Landing is down to less than 30% of the overall Market, in Europe it's still 65%, in Europe they are squeezing the banks harder than in the US, bosel 3 endgame and so on, but at the same time they have not liberalized on the investor side, it does not surprise me that Europe suffers from a capital deficit.
从资本市场的角度来看,美国是世界上最幸运的地方。世界上50%的资本都是在这里筹集的,来源多样。所以再次思考一个投资者:银行系统流出的每一美元都增加了系统的韧性,并降低了杠杆。银行的杠杆是12到14倍,而投资者通常根本没有杠杆。杠杆的减少和多样性。
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The US is by far this the luckiest place in the world from a capital markets point of view, 50% of the world's capital is raised here, the diversity of sources, so again, think about an investor, every dollar that moves out of the banking system increases the resiliency of the system and reduces The Leverage, a bank is levered 12 to 14 times, an investor is generally not levered at all, reduction in leverage and diversity.
银行借短贷长,而投资者通常是借长贷长。没有期限转换(Maturity Transformation: 指金融机构通过借入短期资金并贷出长期资金来创造流动性的过程),没有财政部担保,也没有存款(Deposit: 存入银行的资金)。但监管机构总是关注的一点是,在美国和欧洲,银行资产负债表中投资级资产的百分比是多少?大约60%左右。而我们,我们的资产负债表超过90%是投资级。
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A bank borrows short and lends long, investors General borrow short, borrow long and lend long, there is no maturity transformation, there is no guarantee from treasury, there is no deposit, but the thing that always gets Regulators what percentage of A bank's balance sheet in the US and Europe for that matter is investment grade, 60 plus minus, for us our balance sheet better than 90% plus investment grade.
公共市场与私人市场的趋同
Nicolai: 那么,你们从公共固定收益市场那里获得的业务呢?我想我听您说过,在不久的将来,公共和私人投资级信贷之间将基本没有区别。
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What about the uh business you take from the public fixed income Market uh I think I've heard you say that uh in a little while we there will basically be no difference between public and private investment gr credit I I think that is true, I think that's where we're heading.
Marc: 我认为这是真的,我认为这就是我们前进的方向。嗯,但这您必须记住我们从何开始。所以让我们从一个普遍的校准开始。我们过去在美国有8000家上市公司,现在只有4000家。是的,私有化的公司比上市的公司多。我认为这不是一个短期现象,而是一个长期现象。超过1亿美元收入的公司中,80%是私有的。那么,应该有多少资本是私有的呢?绝大多数。所以我们实际上正在支持整个私人公司生态系统。
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Um it does not, but you have to remember where we're starting from, so let's start with a General calibration, we used to have 8,000 public companies in the US, we now have 4,000 public companies, yeah, we have more companies going private than going public. I don't think this is a short-term phenomenon, this is a long-term phenomenon, 80% of companies over 100 million of Revenue are private, what percentage of capital should be private? A vast vast majority of it, so we're actually supporting the whole private company ecosystem.
我是否认为我们将取代公共投资级市场?不,我不认为我们会。我认为重要的是要从规模的角度看待所有这些事情。贝莱德有11或12万亿美元,而强大的阿波罗只有7000亿美元。如果我们真的非常成功,五年后我们的规模将是现在的两倍。我的猜测是,届时美国将有一系列规模达到20万亿美元的资产管理公司。
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Do I think we're going to displace the public investment grade Market? No, I don't think we're going to. I think it's important to put all of these things in size perspective. You have black rock at 11 or 12 trillion, you have the mighty Apollo at 700 billion, if we're really really successful, we will be twice our size five years from now, my guess is you will have a series of asset managers in the US that are 20 trillion at that point in size.
我们在经济中扮演着重要但相对较小的角色。我喜欢这种观点,即我们的行业不是一个资产管理行业。资产管理公司可以获得任意数量的资金,然后进行投资。而我们只有在能够产生超额收益(Alpha)时才能投资。我们从事的是阿尔法生成(Alpha Generation: 指通过主动管理策略,在承担同等风险的情况下,获得高于市场平均水平的收益)业务。
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We serve an important but relatively small role in the economy and it's kind of what I like the notion that our industry is not an asset management industry, an asset manager, you can give any amount of money and they will invest it, we can only invest it if we can produce excess return Alpha, we're in the alpha generation business.
Nicolai: 绝对是。现在,我们只在公共市场,对吧?这不是,你知道,一个在私人市场投资的授权。我们正在失去什么?
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Absolutely. Now we are only in the public market, right? It's not you know a mandate to be in the private Market, what are we losing out on?
Marc: 您正在失去80%的可投资市场。如果您思考一下,公共市场并非我们想象的那样运作。事实上,没有什么事情是按照我们想象的那样运作的。所以今天我审视公共市场,并提出一些非常基本的问题,比如在作为最发达资本市场的美国,我们短期内是否存在价格发现(Price Discovery: 指市场通过买卖双方的互动,确定资产或商品真实价值的过程)?我不这么认为。
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You're losing out on 80% of the investable market and if you think about it, public markets do not work the way we think they work, in fact, nothing works the way we think it works, so I look at public markets today and I ask really fundamental questions like in the US which is the most developed of the capital markets, do we have price Discovery in the short term? I don't think so.
想想美国市场发生了什么:80%的交易量集中在标普500指数(S&P 500: 由标准普尔公司编制的包含美国500家大型上市公司股票的市值加权指数)中,60%以上的市场是被动投资(Passive Investing: 指通过跟踪市场指数而非主动选择个股来构建投资组合的策略)。10只股票占据了标普39%的份额,4只股票基本上决定了过去四年的盈利能力。是的,一只股票的规模比除日本以外的所有其他公共市场都要大。这就是您正在进入的宇宙。
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Think about what's happened in US markets, 80% of volume S&P 500, 60 plus perc of the market passive, 10 stocks 39% of the S&P, four stocks have determined basically profitability for the last four years, yeah, one stock is larger than every Public Market other than Japan, that's the universe you're going into.
Nicolai: 所以您是说公共市场风险很高?
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So you saying that um the public market is very risky?
Marc: 我不是说它有风险,我是说它是指数化和相关联的(Indexed and Correlated: 指投资组合或资产的价格走势与某个市场指数高度一致,且不同资产之间存在强烈的同步变动),它现在关乎资本流动,而不是短期内个别证券的价格发现。想想那些应该能够跑赢指数的人——主动型基金经理(Active Managers: 指通过主动选择证券、市场时机等策略,力求超越市场基准表现的基金经理)。主动型基金经理表现如何?过去20年,他们基本上90%以上的时间都未能跑赢指数。他们变笨了吗?不,是我们的市场结构发生了变化。这不意味着不好,只是意味着它变得指数化和相关联。
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I'm not saying it's risky, I'm saying it's indexed and correlated and it is about Capital flows now, it is not about price discovery of an individual security in the short term. Think about people who are supposed to be able to outperform the index, active managers, how have active managers done? Well, basically 90 plus% of the time for the past 20 years, they have failed to beat the index, did they get stupider? No, the structure of our Market has changed, it doesn't mean bad, it just means indexed and correlated.
因此,一个投资者,特别是一个国际投资者,如果想在美国表达观点,不再是进来购买一篮子证券,而是购买指数。
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And so an investor, particularly an international investor who wants to express an opinion in the US, no longer comes in and buys a basket of Securities, they buy the index.
私募股权的趋势与行业洗牌
Nicolai: 您也从事私募股权(Private Equity: 指投资于非上市公司股权或进行公司并购的基金)行业或业务,并且做得非常好。那么,您在这里看到了哪些趋势?
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Now you are also in the private Equity industry or business and um done really really well now um what are the trends you are seeing here?
Marc: 趋势,所以这关乎重塑。这就是我之前提到的业务,在84年、90年等等,它一直在重塑自身。但我认为我们必须对过去十年进行一次校准。我认为过去十年将是非常不寻常的,而且我认为对投资者来说不会太好。我曾预测并公开表示,过去十年中现有基金的传统私人市场回报将很低。为什么?
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The Trends, so this is about reinvention, as this is the business I was referring to where in '84, uh it was done in 90 and so on and so on, the business continues to reinvest itself, but I I think we have to level set the decade that has just passed, I think is going to turn out to be very unusual and I don't think will be great for investors. I have forecast and I've said publicly, I think returns in traditional private markets on existing vintages of funds over done over the past decade will be low. Why?
人们通常在美国金融危机后和新冠疫情后,在美国印发8万亿美元的背景下进行投资,当时利率接近零。因此,我们对私人市场投资采取了非常顺周期的方法(Pro-cyclical Approach: 指投资策略或经济政策与经济周期同步,在繁荣时期扩张,在衰退时期收缩)。60%的所谓私募股权实际上是成长型股权(Growth Equity: 指投资于具有高增长潜力但尚未成熟的公司的股权)。许多被收购的公司,即使是好公司,也是以相对较高的价格收购的,其资本结构(Capital Structures: 指公司融资的构成,包括债务和股权的比例)定价非常低,现在将以更高的利率进行再融资(Refinanced: 指通过新的贷款或债券替换现有债务)。鉴于持有期(Holding Periods: 指投资者持有资产的时间长度)将延长,所有这些都告诉我,回报将会下降。
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People invested generally in the midst of the US printing $8 trillion following the financial crisis and then following covid and you had interest rates near zero and so we have a very Pro cyclical approach to private markets investing, 60% of quote private Equity was actually growth and many of the companies that were purchased even if they were good companies were purchased at relatively high prices with capital structures priced at very low prices that are now going to be refinanced at much higher rates, given that holding periods will be extended, all of that tells me that returns will go down.
Nicolai: 那么我们为什么要进入私募股权市场呢?
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So why should we then go into private Equity?
Marc: 嗯,让我们回到这一点。公共市场也是如此。公共市场也经历了同样的情况。但私募股权对每个人来说都不一样。您会发现有一批核心公司,在过去十年中没有屈服于低成本杠杆的诱惑,并在价格中反映了这一点。我认为我们的行业将经历一次行业洗牌(Shakeout: 指在竞争激烈的市场中,一些表现不佳的公司被淘汰,行业集中度提高的过程)。那些在我看来提供私人市场贝塔(Beta: 指衡量投资组合或资产相对于整个市场波动性的指标,代表市场风险)的公司,我认为未来规模会更小,成功率会更低。而那些真正坚持自己擅长的事情,提供私人市场阿尔法(Alpha: 指投资组合在扣除市场风险(Beta)后获得的超额收益)的公司,我认为将继续非常成功。
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This is well, let's let's go back, the same is true for public markets, public markets have had exactly the same, but private Equity is not the same for everyone, you will find a core group of firms that over the past 10 years did not succumb to the the benefits of lowc cost leverage and reflect that impr price and I think we're going to have a bit of a ShakeOut in our industry, people who are giving you in my term private markets beta, I think are going to be smaller going forward, they will be less successful and people who really stuck to what they do well, giving you private markets Alpha, I think will continue to be very very successful.
我相信我们将看到一次洗牌。我的行业预测是,最终将剩下大型公司和小型公司。我认为,出于各种原因,中间地带将是一个非常艰难的境地。
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I believe that we will see a ShakeOut and again, my forecast for the industry is that you will end up with the large and the small, I think the middle is going to be a very very tough place to be for a variety of reasons.
Nicolai: 您认为私募股权行业的透明度、ESG(Environmental, Social, and Governance: 环境、社会和公司治理,衡量企业可持续发展和道德影响的指标)和费用会发生什么变化?
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What do you think would happen to transparency ESG and fees in the private Equity industry?
Marc: 费用在很长一段时间内都非常稳定,我预计费用在很长一段时间内也将保持非常稳定。我曾说过,就其传统形式而言,我不认为这个行业是一个增长型行业,因为毕竟我们的工作是在私人市场中产生阿尔法。
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So fees have been remarkably stable over a very very long period of time and I expect fees to be remarkably stable over a very very long period of time. I have said about the industry in its traditional form that I do not think it is a growth industry because our job after all is to produce Alpha in private markets.
我们,以阿波罗为例,是一个拥有35年历史、在这个市场中拥有卓越回报的千亿美元级特许经营权。我们无法将业务规模扩大一倍,甚至也没有考虑过。这项业务是为了回报率而运营的,而不是为了增长而运营的。我认为我们绝大多数的竞争对手也以类似的方式看待这项业务,但这并不意味着完全相同。我认为,以传统私募股权形式存在的业务规模将大致保持不变。
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Is very we are take Apollo for instance, we're a hundred billion do plus franchise with a 35-year history in this marketplace with exceptional returns, we could we can't double the size of our business nor do we even think about it, this business is run for rate of return, it is not run for growth. I think the vast majority of our competitors see the business similarly that doesn't mean exactly the same and I think the business will be roughly its size in a traditional private Equity format.
但我还认为,对私人资产的需求将会增加。我认为这种需求将来自家族办公室、个人,甚至可能来自退休系统,甚至可能来自401(k) 退休金计划(401k: 美国的一种由雇主赞助的退休储蓄计划,允许员工税前存入工资,投资收益延税)。这将取决于这里的监管情况如何演变。我个人对私人市场持相对积极的看法,在一段时间内不考虑产品本身。
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But I also think we're going to have increased demand for private assets, I think that demand is going to come from family offices, it's coming from individuals and it may in fact come from Retirement Systems and it may in fact come from 401k, it will depend on how the regulatory situation here evolves, my own view is a relatively positive view of private markets without regard to the product for a period of time.
我思考这个行业的历史,我们基本上是与机构并肩发展私人资产行业、私人市场行业的。但这些机构是从其投资组合中最小的部分,一个被称为“另类投资类别”(Alternative Bucket: 指机构投资者在资产配置中专门用于投资另类资产(如私募股权、对冲基金、房地产等)的部分)的小办公室来资助它的。突然间,您有了另一个需求来源:个人几乎没有接触私人资产,他们的规模与机构大致相同,我相信他们也将参与这个市场。
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And I think about the industry's history, we basically grew the private asset industry, the private markets industry side by side with institutions, but those institutions funded it out of the smallest part of their portfolio, a little office down the hall called Alternatives, all of a sudden you have another source of demand, you have individuals who have almost no exposure to private assets who are roughly the same size of Institutions who I believe will also participate in that Marketplace.
然后您有退休系统和退休计划,它们正在寻求提供退休收入,并且已经是私人资产(主要是固定收益资产)的大买家,随着人口老龄化,它们正在扩大业务范围。最后,我认为您看到公共市场和私人市场正在趋同。这首先发生在债务市场,但我认为最终在某种程度上也会发生在股权市场。
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You then have Retirement Systems and retirement plans looking to provide retirement income who already have been big buyers of private assets primarily fixed income assets who are expanding what they do as the population ages and finally, I think you have public markets and private markets convergence, it's happening first in the debt Market, but I think it will eventually happen to some extent in the equity market.
因此,历史上将私人资产参与限制在“另类投资类别”的机构,是出于一个错误的信念,即私人资产有风险而公共资产安全。如果这个基本观念是错误的呢?如果私人资产既安全又有风险,公共资产也既安全又有风险呢?那么,只投资私人资产和另类资产的资产配置(Asset Allocation: 指投资者根据风险偏好和投资目标,将资金分配到不同资产类别(如股票、债券、现金)的过程)还有什么意义呢?
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So institutions who historically have limited their participation in private assets to their alternative bucket that was done out of a mistaken belief that private was risky and public was safe, what if that basic conception is just wrong? What if private is safe and risky and public is safe and risky? Why does the asset allocation of private only and Alternatives make any sense?
嗯,它没有意义。我认为我们将重新思考整个资产配置的概念,我可以看到它在固定收益市场实时发生。机构客户的固定收益历史上是100%投资级和100%公共的。我看到机构现在将相同的固定收益配置分为贝塔(Beta: 指衡量投资组合或资产相对于整个市场波动性的指标,代表市场风险)公共市场投资级和阿尔法(Alpha: 指投资组合在扣除市场风险(Beta)后获得的超额收益)私人市场投资级。这正在家族办公室、养老基金、捐赠基金和主权财富基金中发生。
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Well, it doesn't. I think we will rethink the whole notion of asset allocation and I can see it happening in real time in fixed income, fixed income historically for institutional clients has been 100% investment grade and 100% public. I see institutions now dividing that that same fixed income allocation between beta Public Market IG and Alpha private Market IG and it's happening in family office, it's happening in Pension funds, it's happening endowments, it's happening in Sovereign wealth funds.
之所以首先发生在固定收益市场,是因为有外部看门人(Gatekeepers: 指在金融市场中扮演监督、审查或批准角色的机构或个人,如评级机构、审计师等)——评级机构(Rating Agencies: 评估债务发行人信用风险的机构)。他们实际上可以告诉投资组合经理:“您的投资组合是A级,这是A级,它们的风险相同。现在您只是在决定流动性以及您希望为略低的流动性获得多少回报。”哦,顺便说一句,公共固定收益市场根本没有流动性(Liquidity: 指资产能够以合理价格迅速买卖的难易程度)。
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And the reason it's happening in fixed income first is you have external Gatekeepers rating agencies, they can actually tell a portfolio manager your portfolio is in a this is an a they are of the same risk, now you're just making a a determination as to liquidity and how much rate of return you want for a little less liquidity, oh and by the way, there is no liquidity in public fixed income markets.
Nicolai: 鉴于大量资本正在转向私人市场,这对流动性意味着什么?这将如何发展?此外,投资银行(Investment Banks: 提供金融咨询、证券承销、并购重组等服务的银行)正在减少用于做市(Market Making: 指金融机构通过同时报出买卖价格,为市场提供流动性的行为)的资本,银行有不同类型的规则等等。
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And um given that a lot of capital is moving over to the private Market, what what are the implications for the liquidity and how will that pan out, also investment banks are using less uh capital for Market making, uh you have different types of rules for banks, etc etc.
Marc: 所以答案是,这种变化在2008年就已经发生了,但我们还没有看到它的应用,我们还没有看到它真正经受住压力测试。哦,我们已经看到了,我们看到了两次。我们在新冠疫情期间看到了,当时固定收益交易所交易基金(ETFs: 一种在交易所上市交易的基金,通常跟踪特定指数或资产类别)几乎崩溃了。我们还在英国看到了负债驱动型投资(LDI: Liability Driven Investment: 一种投资策略,旨在管理和匹配机构(如养老金)的资产与负债,以确保未来支付能力)的危机。
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So the answer is the change has already happened in 2008, but we haven't seen the application, we haven't seen it really stress tested, oh we have, we've seen it twice, we've seen it we saw it in covid where ETFs in fixed income almost broke and we saw it in the UK and ldi.
是的,我们应该预期。所以这是背景:2008年,部分监管改革是为了惩罚那些在银行系统内做市和持有做市资本的人,特别是对于固定收益。今天用于固定收益做市的资本大约只有2008年的10%,而市场规模却是2008年的三倍。那么,我们什么时候会看到这种情况呢?
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Yeah, we should expect, so here's the setup, 2008 part of the regulatory reform was to penalize those who made markets and held Market making Capital within the banking system, particularly for fixed income, there is roughly 10% of the amount of capital for fixed income Market making today as there was in 2008 and the market is three times its size and so what will so when will we see that?
Nicolai: 那么,假设我们发生了某种崩溃,是的,但我的意思是,规模更大。
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So let's say we have some type of Crash, yeah, but I mean in in a bigger scale.
Marc: 下次我们遇到重大风险事件时,我个人认为,我们应该预期今天公开交易的固定收益市场几乎没有流动性。在最好的情况下,在流动性最强的市场中,出售一只投资级公司债券(Corporate Bond: 由公司发行以筹集资金的债务工具)需要5天。当市场走向另一个方向时,我们能期待什么呢?
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The the next time we get a significant riskof event, my own view is we should expect little to no liquidity in publicly traded fixed income today, in the best of times, in the most liquid Market takes 5 days to sell an investment grade corporate bond, what can we expect when it goes in the other direction?
因此,今天的私人投资级市场不进行交易。好的,您将看到流动性进入私人市场,这意味着私人市场将实现日常流动性、日常定价和日常价格发现。如果您思考投资级,至少您将拥有相同的发行人、相同的评级、相同的规模,并且随着时间的推移,您将拥有类似的流动性。我的直觉告诉我,在未来18个月内,投资者将真正围绕固定收益的阿尔法和贝塔划分这一概念达成共识。
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And so private markets today in investment grade don't trade, okay, you're going to see liquidity come into private markets that will mean for private markets everyday liquidity, everyday pricing, everyday price Discovery, if you think about investment grade, at least you will have the same issuers, the same ratings, the same size and you will have similar liquidity over time, my gut tells me over the next 18 months investors will really coal us around this idea of fixed income and dividing it between Alpha and beta.
最终,我不认为这种变化会止步于固定收益。我认为它也将影响股权市场。正如我在奥斯陆时所说,我认为投资者,包括像你们这样的机构,你们可能不拥有私募股权,但你们将拥有私有股权。你们可能已经拥有Spotify、OpenAI以及许多其他保持私有状态的科技公司。那么,为什么会止步于此呢?我认为将有50或100家私人公司可以筹集股权,这也许是主动管理的新形式——对公司的积极所有权,或者说是没有杠杆和基金的私募股权。这仍然还有一段路要走,未来五年将是关于固定收益替代。
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Eventually, I don't think change is going to stop at fixed income, I think it's coming for Equity as well, as I said when I was in Oslo, I think investors including institutions like yours, you may not own private Equity, but you will own Equity that is private, you you may or and many do already, they own Spotify, they own open AI, they own any number of tech companies that have remained private, well why should it stop there? I think there'll be 50 or 100 companies that are private for which Equity can be raised, maybe that is the new form of active management, active ownership of companies or PE without the leverage and without the fund, that's that's a ways out still, the next five years is going to be about fixed income replacement.
阿波罗的投资哲学与领导力
Nicolai: 现在,您是一家上市公司,但您的目标是为投资者创造回报。那么,您如何看待这种,嗯,是权衡还是非权衡,即在创造资产(这是上市公司希望您做的)和创造回报之间?
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Now you're um uh listed company and uh but your uh your target is a to generate returns for your investors, so how do you how do you um look at that kind of uh well, trade-off or not tradeoff between generating assets which is what the public market listing wants you to do or generating returns?
Marc: 我认为,如果您只以创造资产为目标,您会毁掉这项业务。我回到我们运营这项业务的基础——至少在阿波罗,我们基于三个基本原则:首先,阿波罗的一切都是一个策略,即“购买价格至关重要”(Purchase Price Matters: 指在投资中,购买资产的价格是决定未来回报的关键因素)。在股权方面,我们将其视为价值;在固定收益方面,我们将其视为本金保护(Protection of Principle: 指投资的首要目标是保护原始投资金额不遭受损失),并通过结构和发起获得回报,而不一定是通过信贷选择或降低资本结构(Capital Structure: 指公司融资的构成,包括债务和股权的比例)层级。
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So I think if you follow the generation of assets and that is your only goal, you'll destroy the business. I come back to the basis on which we run this business, uh we run it at least at Apollo on three fundamental principles, the first is everything is one strategy at Apollo, it's all purchase price matters in equity, we think of that as value, in fixed income, we think of that as protection of principle and getting return not necessarily through credit selection or reaching down the capital structure but through structure and origination.
其次,我们不是资产管理公司,我们是阿尔法(Alpha: 超额收益)的来源,即每单位风险的超额回报。
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Um the second is we are not an asset manager, we are a source of alpha, excess return per unit of risk.
Nicolai: 抱歉,难道所有资产管理公司不都会这么说吗?
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I'm sorry, wouldn't all asset managers say that?
Marc: 我不这么认为。一个被动型资产管理公司,在ETF业务中规模巨大,他们的工作是为您提供贝塔(Beta: 市场风险),提供高效、运行良好、成本低廉、报告清晰的贝塔。这是今天公共市场的绝大多数。我们的工作是为您提供阿尔法。因此,我们的增长受到我们产生阿尔法能力的限制。如果我们吸收过多的资产,我们将稀释回报,最终对我们的业务产生负面影响。
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I I wouldn't think so, someone who is a passive asset manager who has scaled massively in the ETF business, their job is to give you beta really efficient, we really well-run, really lowcost, well reported beta that is the vast Mass majority of public markets today, our job is to give you Alpha, we are therefore limited in our growth by our capacity to generate Alpha, if we take in too much in the way of assets, we will dilute our returns and ultimately create negative impact for our business.
Nicolai: 让我们花点时间谈谈阿尔法方面。那么,是否存在一种“阿波罗投资哲学”?
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Let's spend some time on the alpha side, so is there such a thing as an Apollo investment philosophy?
Marc: 是的,我刚才说了,就是“购买价格至关重要”。那么这意味着什么呢?有很多策略可以采用。有人是伟大的国际主义者,有人是伟大的宏观交易员,有人擅长追逐增长。我们擅长发现价值。有时这种价值来自用辛勤工作换取购买价格,就像我们的私募股权投资组合和资产管理一样。但如果您将其转化为固定收益,那就是寻找每单位风险的超额回报。
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There is, it's and I I've said it, it's purchase price matters, so what does it mean? This is so there are lots of strategies that one can employ, there's someone who's a great internationalist, there's someone who's a great macr Trader, there's someone who's great at chasing growth, we are great at finding value, sometimes that value comes from Trading hard work for purchase price as in our private Equity portfolio and asset management, but if you translate it over to fixed income, it's finding exess return per unit of risk.
那么,我们如何从一家单一A级公司获得比他们在公共市场中能获得的更高的报酬呢?自您创立公司以来,投资哲学改变了吗?
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So how do we get paid more for a single a rated company from a single a rated company than they could otherwise get in the public Marketplace, has the investment philosophy changed since you started the firm?
Marc: 它在很长一段时间内都没有改变。
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It has not changed in a very very long.
Nicolai: 您认为它会改变吗?
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You think it will do you think it will change?
Marc: 我不认为。
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I do not.
Nicolai: 坚持这种哲学是否曾遇到困难?
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Has it ever been difficult to stay true to the philosophy?
Marc: 哦,非常困难。尤其是在美国印发8万亿美元的时期,随机的公司一夜之间获得了数十亿美元的估值。
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Oh, it's been very difficult, uh especially when the US is printing 8 trillion dollar over a period of time and random companies have multibillion valuations overnight.
Nicolai: 那么您当时做了什么?
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So what do you do now then uh what do you do?
Marc: 您试图管理许多A型人格,并说服他们无所事事是最好的选择。
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Then you you try to manage a lot of type A personalities and convince them that doing nothing is the best thing.
Nicolai: 您是如何做到的?所以您有一些抱负。您去过马戏团,那里有驯狮师。所以您雇佣了这样一个人,比如刚从沃顿商学院毕业的,我们俩都在那里上过学。他们非常热衷于征服世界,而您,马克·罗文,却在后面拉着他们。这有多容易?
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And how do you do that? So you have so you have some Ambitions, you've been to the circus where they have the lion tamer, uh so you so you you hire this person like straight out of uh you know Wharton where we actually both went to school, uh they're very keen on kind of Conquering the world and there you are Mar Mark Rowan holding the backc, yes, and how easy is that?
Marc: 实际上很容易,因为这不仅仅是马克·罗文,而是整个公司。我们都在这种文化中成长起来。这不是我与公司对抗,实际上每个人都在这里足够长时间,明白我们的工作是什么,我们接受有些时期我们不会增长那么快,有些时期我们会增长非常快。但从根本上说,这关乎创造自己的运气。
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It's actually quite easy because it's not it's not just Mark Rowan, it's the whole firm, we've all grown up in this culture, we've grown up this way, it's not me against the firm, it actually everyone has been around long enough to understand what our job is and we accept that there are periods of time when we will not grow as fast and there are periods of time that we will grow very very fast, but fundamentally this is about making your own luck.
我将回到另一种思考我们业务的方式,这在某种程度上是具有挑战性的。投资才能与文化和系统相比有多重要?
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I'll come back to a a a different way of thinking about our business which it'll be challenging for a second how important is investment Talent versus culture and system giving this it it's it's all part of something there there's lots of talented people, but retaining let's go to the a more fundamental because you're getting a a more fundamental what do we offer people? What do we offer a client? We offer them judgment.
这都是一部分。有很多有才华的人,但要留住他们,让我们回到一个更基本的问题,因为您正在触及一个更基本的问题:我们为人们提供什么?我们为客户提供什么?我们提供给他们判断力。没有秘密武器,没有,你知道,后台的算法,只有判断力。您如何获得判断力?我认为您需要长时间地观察我们做什么和不做什么,在各种具有挑战性和不那么具有挑战性的情况下。这意味着我需要您在阿波罗度过您的职业生涯。我如何做到这一点?
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There's no secret sauce, there's no you know algorithm in the back room, it's judgment, how do you get judgment? I think you get it over a long period of time seeing what we do and don't do a variety of challenging and not so challenging circumstances, that implies that I need you to spend your career at Apollo, how do I do that?
嗯,我需要让这个地方成为金融服务领域中成为合伙人的最佳场所。这就是我的北极星,因为如果我做到了,我将让您在这里度过整个职业生涯。阿波罗有200名合伙人,我希望所有200人都想要同样的东西。不幸的是,他们想要200种不同的东西:功绩、薪酬、文化、环境、目标以及其他20种无形的东西的某种组合。
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Well, I need to make this place the single best place to be a partner in financial services and that is my North Star because if I do that, I will retain you for your whole career, there are 200 Partners at Apollo and I wish all 200 wanted the same thing, Unfortunately, they want 200 things some mix of Merit compensation, culture, environment, purpose and 20 other intangibles.
Nicolai: 所以,您为客户和员工提供判断力,对吧?
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So so you off you offer clients and your people judge judgment, right?
Marc: 人们提供判断力,我们的客户是我们的判断力的受益者。
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People offer the Judgment, our clients are the beneficiaries of our judment.
Nicolai: 您为客户提供判断力。那么,这种判断力与黑石(Blackstone)、EQT、KKR的判断力有何不同?
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You offer your clients's judgment, now how is that judgment different from the Blackstone judgment EQT judgment KKR judgment?
Marc: 每个人在经营业务的方式上都有细微的差异,或者说不仅仅是细微的差异。这些公司,尽管它们都属于所谓的另类资产管理行业,但在它们追求的交易、结构方面实际上大相径庭。随着时间的推移,我们变得更加不同,而不是更加相似。我们今天的业务是独一无二的,没有人像我们今天这样。
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Everyone has a a slight difference or more than a slight difference in the way they do they do business, the firms although they're all in the quote alternative asset manag industry are actually quite different in terms of the deals they pursue, how they're structured and over time we've become more different rather than more similar, our business today is one of one no one actually looks like we do today.
我来描述一下情况。阿波罗的交易是什么样的?
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I'll describe the setup, yeah, what is an Apollo deal? What does it?
嗯,让我们从一个更基本的问题开始。如果我们的AUM是7000亿美元,这大约是我们年底的水平,其中3500亿美元是我们自己的资产负债表,3500亿美元是客户资金。我们通常是所有资产的最大买家。受增长过快影响最大的人是我们自己。这是一种与客户保持一致的绝佳方式,无论是从增长角度还是从投资角度。这是第三个原则:如果第一个是“购买价格至关重要”,第二个是“每单位风险的超额回报”,那么第三个就是“一致性”。
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Well, let's start with a let's start with a more basic, if we're 700 billion of AUM, which is approximately where we were at year end, 350 billion of that was our own balance sheet, 350 billion of that was client money, we are generally the largest buyer of everything, the person that is most impacted by growing too fast is us, it is a wonderful way to be aligned with your clients from a from a growth point of view and from an investment point of view and that is the third precept, if the first is purchase price matters and the second is excess return per unit of risk, the third is alignment.
今天没有人像我们这样。这意味着其他事情。我们还管理着不成比例的固定收益,5500亿美元的固定收益,而股权只有1500亿美元。我们的业务设置不同。有趣的是,这个行业几乎所有公司都是从私募股权开始的。私募股权的资本成本非常高,需要20%以上的回报率。世界上有多少公司在杠杆作用下适合这种高资本成本?答案是很少。
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No one looks the way we look today, that implies other things, we also manage a disproportionate amount of fixed income, 550 billion of fixed income versus 150 billion of equity, our business is set up differently, what's been interesting about this is people this industry Started With Private Equity almost for every firm you've mentioned, private Equity is a very expensive cost of capital, think of it as a 20% plus rate of return that is required, how many companies in the world with leverage can are appropriate for that high cost of capital? The answer is a few.
但随着时间的推移,我们所做的是,我们将我们的技能、发起能力、分析能力、寻找能力和辨别能力从投资级扩展到杠杆股权。我们实际上已经大幅降低了我们的资本成本。如果您看看阿波罗今天进行的平均投资,其资本成本可能在6%或7%左右,非常偏向投资级。
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But maybe the pile is about this High over time, what we've done is we've taken our skill set, our ability to originate, our ability to analyze, our ability to Source, our ability to discern and we've extended it from investment grade to lever Equity, we've actually lowered our cost of capital substantially over time, if you look at the average investment Apollo makes today, probably has a six or 7% cost of capital, very heavily tilted to investment grade.
这是对世界现状的反映。所以我从问题开始:今天的世界便宜吗?不。今天的风险得到回报了吗?不。利差很小。在一个地缘政治风险高、估值高、利差小的世界里,我为什么要承担大量风险?总会有承担风险的时候,在金融市场纠正之后,它们总会纠正。那将是我们想要承担风险的时候。但如果您正在寻找阿波罗的DNA和阿波罗的哲学,那就是每单位风险的超额回报。
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That's a reflection now you're going to talk about of where the world is, so I start with questions back, is the world cheap today? No. Is risk being rewarded today? No. Spreads are tight, in a world with geopolitical risk where valuations are high and spreads are tight, why would I want to take lots of risk today? There'll be a time to take risk after financial markets correct, at some point they always do, that'll be a time when we want to take risk, but if you're looking for the Apollo DNA and Apollo philosophy, excess return per unit of risk.
所以现在是您有所保留的时候?
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So this is a time where you're holding back a bit?
Marc: 我们肯定有所保留,并正在调整我们的投资方式。我们想要回报。所以如果我给您信贷市场回报,降低资本结构(Capital Structure: 指公司融资的构成,包括债务和股权的比例)层级并承担更多次级风险(Subordinated Risk: 指在公司破产清算时,其偿付顺序低于其他债务的风险)在今天看来是个非常糟糕的主意。利用您的人力和资源,通过发起和结构获得报酬,但在资本结构中处于优先地位(Senior in the Capital Structure: 指在公司破产清算时,其偿付顺序高于其他债务的地位)在今天看来是极好的时间利用方式。这就是我们一直在做的。
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We're definitely holding back in adjusting how we invest right now, we want return, so if I give you the credit Market return reaching down the capital structure and taking more subordinated risk feels like a bad bad idea today, right, using your people and your resources to get paid for origination and structure but being senior in the capital structure feels like a tremendously good use of time, right, and that's what we've been doing.
Nicolai: 所以您有点像沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)那样谨慎行事,上次我看到他也在囤积现金。
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So you're playing it safe a bit like Warren Buffett who is racing cash last I looked.
Marc: 他活了很长时间,过得很幸福。
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He's lived a long time in a very happy way.
当前市场的风险与未来展望
Nicolai: 这些市场的主要风险是什么?什么可能引发更严重的事情?
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What are the main risks in these markets and what what could trigger something more more serious?
Marc: 所以我今天审视风险。我们面前的风险在某种程度上是显而易见的。地缘政治(Geopolitics: 国际政治与地理因素相互作用的研究)是其中一个最主要的风险,但甚至不仅仅是地缘政治,还有政治。我的意思是,我们现在在美国,我会告诉您,一切感觉都很好。我们不仅有增长,失业率也很低,而且还有尚未显现的财政刺激(Fiscal Stimulus: 政府通过增加支出或减少税收来刺激经济增长的政策)的积压。三年前,我们通过了近2万亿美元的基础设施法案(Infrastructure Bill: 指政府为改善国家基础设施而通过的立法,通常涉及道路、桥梁、公共交通等)。它仍在建设中,还没有任何东西建成。两年前,520亿美元用于半导体工厂(Semiconductor Plants: 生产半导体芯片的工厂),还没有一家工厂开业。一年前,通胀削减法案(Inflation Reduction Act: 美国一项旨在降低通胀、投资清洁能源和医疗保健的立法)旨在鼓励电动汽车(EVs)和其他产品的制造,还没有一家工厂开业。过去三年,我们连续成为外商直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment: 指一国企业或个人直接投资于另一国企业或资产,以获取控制权或长期利益)的最大接收国,我们正在进行国防生产(Defense Production: 指为国家安全目的生产军事装备和物资)。所有这些都是财政刺激性的,而背景是没有合法移民。这是一个相当不错的局面。
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So I look at the risk today, look the the risks in front of us in in some way are obvious, we have geopolitics as one of the most overriding risks, but not even geopolitics, politics, I mean we right now in the US, I will tell you things feel great, not only do we have growth and we have very low unemployment, we have a backlog of fiscal stimulus that hasn't even hit yet, three years ago we passed nearly 2 trillion in infrastructure bill, it's still being built, nothing's built yet, two years ago $52 billion for Semiconductor plants, not a single plant has open yet, a year ago inflation reduction act to encourage manufacturing of EVs and other things here, not a single plant open, last three years in a row, we've been the largest recipient of foreign direct investment and we're r in defense production, all of those things are fiscally stimulative against a backdrop of no legal immigration, that is a pretty good setup.
我们已经加息500个基点,结果呢?房价上涨,股市上涨,资本市场完全流动。这是一个相当不错的局面。哦,顺便说一句,我们在和平时期有2万亿美元的赤字(Deficit: 指支出超过收入的差额),失业率只有4%。这是一个令人担忧的问题。所以我们可以关注地缘政治,也可以关注政治或治理。
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We've raised rates 500 basis points, what happened? Home prices went up, stocks went up, Capital markets are fully liquid, this is a pretty good setup, oh by the way, we're we're have a$2 trillion deficit in peace time with a 4% unemployment, that's a worry, so one can look at geopolitics, one can look at politics or governance as another.
Nicolai: 那么赤字有多令人担忧呢?
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And how how big a Warriors deficit to me?
Marc: 对我来说,嗯,这不是短期担忧,但最终是长期担忧。它如何能变成短期担忧?通常这些事情会因为债券市场反应(Bond Market Reaction: 指债券市场对经济数据、政策变化或地缘政治事件等消息的反应,通常体现在债券价格和收益率的变化上)而变成短期担忧。最终,债券市场往往是世界的纪律执行者。
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Um it doesn't, it's not a short-term worry, but it is ultimately a long-term worry, how could it turn into a short-term worry? Um usually these things turn into a short-term worry about bond Market reaction, eventually the bond market tends to be the discipline disciplinarian for the world.
Nicolai: 我们怎么知道它不会很快发生呢?
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How do we know that it's not going to kick in soon?
Marc: 我们不知道,这就是它令人担忧的原因。但让我谈谈另一个担忧。看,这些事情是:您如何在这些环境中保护自己?嗯,您通过在资本结构中处于顶端、在信贷市场中拥有高级担保来保护自己。您通过不购买趋势、不为可能由流动性泡沫(Liquidity Bubble: 指市场中存在过剩流动性,导致资产价格被人为推高,脱离基本面价值的现象)支撑的东西支付高价来保护自己在股权市场。
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We we don't, these are that's why it's a it's a worry, but let me come to another worry, look these are things how do you protect yourself in these environments? Well, you protect yourself by being top of the capital structure, senior secur and credit markets and you protect yourself in equity markets by trying not to buy into Trends, not to pay massive prices for things that may in fact be supported by a liquidity bubble.
但还有什么让我担忧?指数化和相关性(Indexation and Correlation: 指投资组合或资产的价格走势与某个市场指数高度一致,且不同资产之间存在强烈的同步变动)。想想世界上发生了什么,每个人现在都与相同的交易挂钩。我们在英国看到了LDI(Liability Driven Investment: 负债驱动型投资)危机。LDI并不是英国机构在做的一些疯狂的事情,只是每个人在同一时间以相同的方式拥有相同的风险,并认为他们能够出售他们的AAA和AA级持仓以满足追加保证金要求。结果呢?他们不能。
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But what else worries me? Indexation and correlation, think about what's happened in the world, everyone is now indexed to the same trade, we saw the in UK ldi, ldi was not some crazy thing UK institutions were doing, it's just that everyone owned the same risk at the same time in the same way and thought they would be able to sell their AAA and double A Holdings to meet margin calls, guess what they couldn't.
这不就是今天整个世界的局面吗?绝大多数公共市场都是日常流动性(Daily Liquid: 指资产可以每天进行买卖,并迅速转换为现金)。日常流动性在我看来是我们在世界上任何地方存在的最大失衡。您不是日常流动性的,因为您有长期的观点,而我们所做的,我们不是日常流动性的,因为我们通常为长期机构管理。但市场上绝大多数资金都是日常流动性的。
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Isn't that the setup of the whole world today? The vast vast majority of public markets daily liquid, daily liquid seems to me to be the biggest imbalance that we have anywhere in the world, you're not daily liquid because you have a long-term point of view and what you do, we're not daily liquid because we manage for generally long-term institutions, but the vast majority of money that's out there is daily liquid.
想想我们对美国最大的资本池做了什么,我们有12到13万亿美元的401(k) 退休金计划(401K: 美国的一种由雇主赞助的退休储蓄计划,允许员工税前存入工资,投资收益延税)。这些人比世界上任何人都更需要退休金、退休储蓄。我们让他们投资了什么?是的,日常流动性,通常是指数基金,长达50年。为什么?嗯,一种信念是私人资产有风险而公共资产安全。一种观念是您在50年期的资产类别中需要日常流动性。我们所做的事情根本没有意义,在今天金融市场的存在方式下,它没有意义,与多年前的存在方式相比更是如此。
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Think about what we've done with the largest pool of capital anywhere in the world, in the US we have 12 to 13 trillion in 401K, these are people who need retirement Money, Retirement savings more than anyone else in the world, Returns, what do we have them invested in? Yeah, daily liquid, generally index funds for 50 years, why? Well, a belief that private is risky and public is safe, a notion that you need daily liquidity in a 50-year asset class, things we do just don't make sense and they don't make sense in the context of the financial Market the way it exists today versus the way it might have existed years ago.
作为历史的学生,您知道公共金融市场在人类历史上是一个相对较新的现象。在很长一段时间内,大多数市场都是私有的。我不是说哪个更好或更差,显然公共市场为世界做了很多好事。但指数化和相关性,我认为在波动时期并不是我们的朋友。
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As you know, as a student of History, public financial markets are a relatively new phenomenon in the history of mankind, most markets were private over a very very long period of time, I'm not saying one is better or worse and clearly private public markets have done awesome goodly good things for the world, but indexation and correlation, I do not think are our friend in periods of volatility.
领导力、文化与个人习惯
Nicolai: 马克,换个话题,让我们谈谈领导力。如果我问您的同事和员工,他们会如何评价您的领导风格?
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Mark, uh changing t a bit here, uh let's talk about leadership, if I asked your colleagues and uh and employees uh about your leadership style, what would they say?
Marc: 希望他们会说好话。但我每六个月也会收到关于我领导风格的反馈。
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Hopefully they would say nice things, but I also I I get uh a an update on my leadership style every six months.
Nicolai: 您是如何获得反馈的?
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And how do you how do you get that?
Marc: 我会收到正式的反馈。阿波罗的团队很棒,他们不害羞,他们非常慷慨地提供反馈。
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Uh I I get formal feedback and the nice thing about the group at Apollo is they are not shy, they are very generous uh with their feedback.
Nicolai: 他们会说什么?
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What do they say?
Marc: 嗯,他们会承认我的优点,也会承认我的缺点。
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Uh they ackowledge my strengths and also my weaknesses.
Nicolai: 您的缺点是什么?
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What are your weaknesses?
Marc: 尼古拉,那是一长串清单。
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It's a long list, Nikolai.
Nicolai: 您正在努力改进什么?您的领导风格正在努力改进什么?
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I'm not sure look we what are you what are you working on? I mean, what are you trying to improve with your leadership style?
Marc: 那么,让我们从我们必须做的事情开始。我相信作为领导者,我是一名服务型领导(Servant Leader: 一种领导哲学,强调领导者通过服务他人来提升团队和组织,而非追求个人权力)。您是一名服务型领导,您放弃了您正在做的事情来成为服务型领导。我放弃了我正在做的事情来成为服务型领导。我过去认为做任何事情我都很擅长,现在我什么都不做。这并非字面意思上的“什么都不做”,但我知道如果我做了什么,我就必须再做一次。而如果我创造一种让我的团队成功的文化,他们就能自己做。他们为我粉刷篱笆。我的工作是让他们的工作更轻松,我已经接受了这一点。
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So let's let's start with what okay, I'll go there instead, what we have to do, I Believe As Leaders, I'm a servant leader, you're a servant leader, you gave up what you were doing to be servant leader, I gave up what I was doing to be a servant leader, I used to think doing anything I was actually quite good at doing things, now I do nothing and that doesn't literally mean nothing, but I know if I do something, I have to do it again, whereas if I create a culture of letting my team succeed, they get to do it, they paint my fence for me, my job is to make their job easier and I've accepted that.
所以我看看我正在努力做的事情:我一半的时间都在管理两个人的职业生涯,因为我无法独自运营这家公司。这是一家太大的公司了。我需要阿波罗的200名合伙人来运营这家公司。如果我让他们朝着正确的方向努力,并且他们都支持,那么一切都会顺利进行。因为我们公司中正在成长的人,看到200名合伙人在这里度过他们的职业生涯,他们就会意识到这是值得的。正在努力工作的年轻一代,面前有两代优秀的导师。如果200名合伙人不开心,我们最终会人员流失,那么运营一家基于知识的业务,而知识却不断流失,将是非常困难的。我认为这正是我们今天在许多金融机构中看到的情况。
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So I look at what I'm trying to do here, half my day is managing the careers of two people because I can't run this firm by myself, it is way too big a firm, I need the 200 partners of Apollo to run this firm, if I have them focused in the right direction and I have their Buy in, everything works because the people who are coming up in our firm and see 200 Partners who are here for their careers, they realize it's worthwhile, the Young Generation who are working really hard now have two amazing generations of mentors in front of them, it all works, if the 200 partners are not happy and we end up with turnover, it's very hard to run a knowledge-based business where knowledge keeps leaving. I think that's what we're seeing in lots of financial institutions today.
那么我正在努力改进什么?我从未真正理解文化方面、判断力方面、伙伴关系方面的重要性,但天哪,它非常重要。这是我一天中的大部分时间。其次,我职业生涯的大部分时间都在试图避免与媒体打交道。我从未觉得它有什么用处。现在我们的行业已经发展到一定规模,我们需要进行良好的沟通。
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So what am I working on? I never really understood how important the cultural side of this, the Judgment side of this, the partnership side of it was, but boy isn't important, that's a big part of my day, the second um I had spent most of my career trying to avoid speaking to the Press, I just never saw the utility of it, the notion of how you now we have gotten to a size in our industry where we need to communicate well.
Nicolai: 我们甚至需要做播客。
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We even need to do podcasts.
Marc: 我们甚至需要做播客。顺便说一句,播客是做这件事的最佳形式,这就是为什么它越来越受欢迎,对吧?因为您有时间解释,您有时间解释,而且您通常是在与一个不赶时间的人交谈,这个人受益于了解您的工作,了解历史,并且正在提问并参与对话,而不仅仅是为了奉承您。
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We even need to do podcast, but by the way, podcast is the single best form of doing this, but which is why it's become increasingly popular, right? Because you get time to explain, you get time to explain and you also generally are talking to someone who is not pressed for time, who has had the benefit of looking at what you do and has the history and is asking questions and engaged in the dialogue not just to flatter you.
Nicolai: 不,但这很有趣,它在美国大选中变得非常重要。
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No, but it's it's interesting how it became very important in the US you know uh election compan.
Marc: 是的,但与监管机构沟通,与同行沟通,与竞争对手沟通,最重要的是,向我们的员工传达清晰的战略,以便每个人都知道对他们的期望是什么。我们刚刚经历了一个投资者日,这对我们来说是一个非常重要的过程。从现在开始加入阿波罗的每个人都将看到我们整理的这三四个小时的内容。所以我们花大量时间来阐明我们的战略。看,我希望我能把我们的战略保密,保守一个大秘密,但这已经行不通了。
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Yes, but communicating with Regulators, communicating with our peers, communicating with competitors and most importantly, communicating a clear strategy to our employees so that everyone knows what's expected of them, we've just come through an investor day, really important process for us, everyone who will join Apollo from this point forward will see the three or four hours that we've put together and so the amount of time that we take to actually articulate our strategy, look, I I wish I could keep our strategy to ourselves and keep it a big secret, but that just doesn't work anymore.
Nicolai: 不,现在我不确定我们是否真的谈到了您的缺点,但是,嗯,您的优点是什么?
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No, now I'm not sure we really touched on your weaknesses, but uh but hey, uh what are your strengths?
Marc: 嗯,从优点来看,我认为我在将公司定位在顺风(Tailwinds: 指有利的经济或市场趋势,能推动企业或行业发展)之前做得很好。是的,并且真正退后一步,尝试挑战每天来到办公室只是做同样的事情。有些东西告诉我,我告诉团队,过去十年让我们成功的东西,不会是未来让我们达到目标的东西。我们将不得不接受市场已经改变,我们在这些市场中的角色已经改变,我们目前认为不可改变的产品并非不可改变。
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Um from a strength's point of view, I think I have done a good job positioning the company in front of Tailwinds, yeah, and really stepping back and trying to challenge coming into the office each day and just doing the same thing, something tells me and I tell the team what got us over the past 10 years is not going to be what gets us where we need to go going forward, we are going to have to accept the markets have changed that our role in these markets have changed that the products that we currently think of as immutable are not immutable.
想想您的职业生涯和我的职业生涯,我开始时没有垃圾债券,没有杠杆贷款,没有ETF,证券化也很少。我们认为这些产品是主流是理所当然的。相信我,十年后我们将有我们从未想过的新产品。这是我们金融服务业务的历史。
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Think about your career and my career, I started no howo bonds, no Leever loans, no ETFs and minimal securitization, we take for granted that those products are mainstream, trust me, we're going to have in 10 years from now new products that we never thought of the history of our financial services business.
Nicolai: 您会发明它们吗?
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Are you going to invent them?
Marc: 我希望我们能参与其中,而且我们正在努力预测市场将走向何方。我们使用的术语:发起、固定收益替代,这些现在是我们行业中以前不存在的术语。股权替代(Equity Replacement: 指用其他金融工具或策略来替代直接持有公司股权的投资方式)、私人资产的做市(Market Making: 指金融机构通过同时报出买卖价格,为市场提供流动性的行为),我们努力走在所有这些事情的最前沿,我希望我们能做到。
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I hope we have a hand in them and boy are we trying hard to really anticipate where we think markets are going, the terms that we've used origination, fixed income replacement, these are now terms in our industry that did not exist before, Equity replacement, Market making for private assets, we try to be at the Forefront of everything that's going on and I hope we are.
Nicolai: 谈到努力工作,您的一天是怎样的?您什么时候起床?
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Talking about uh where working hard, um what does a day look like? When do you wake up?
Marc: 我几乎每天早上5点起床。
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Uh I'm up at 5: almost every day.
Nicolai: 您做什么?
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Right, what do you do?
Marc: 嗯,如果我不在5:30锻炼,那一天就不会锻炼了。所以通常我会在5:30到6:30之间锻炼,然后在7点刚过一点到办公室。
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Well, if I don't exercise at 5:30, it doesn't happen, right, so generally I try to exercise 5:30 to 6:30 and to be in the office sometime just after 7.
Nicolai: 锻炼前喝咖啡吗?
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Coffee before off the workout?
Marc: 是的,两者都有。如果我在家里的健身房,我会锻炼。如果我在纽约办公室,我喜欢坐在我们咖啡吧外面的一个高脚凳上,那就像医生的诊疗时间,它消除了与首席执行官交谈的神秘感。
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Yes, both and if I'm gym at home, uh I do and if I'm in the New York office, I like to sit on a a a bar top just out out side of our coffee bar and I get it's like doctor's hours, uh it's demystified speaking to the CEO.
Nicolai: 咖啡吧有个很酷的名字。
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Coffee bar has a cool name.
Marc: 是的,它叫“逆向咖啡馆”(The Contrarian Cafe)。
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Uh it does the contrarian Cafe.
Nicolai: 您什么时候睡觉?
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When you go to bed?
Marc: 嗯,尼古拉,这可能有点无聊。我通常晚上10点睡觉。
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Uh might be a little boring there, Nicolai, I'm usually in bed by 10.
Nicolai: 像我一样。您的能量来自哪里?
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Like me, energy, what do you get your energy from?
Marc: 您知道答案是,我不知道。我真的不知道。您认为能量是天生的吗?
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You know the answer is, I don't know, I don't know really, do you think energy, do you think it's genetic or?
Marc: 我不知道是天生的还是其他原因,因为没有依据可以知道。嗯,但我会说,我醒来时,我觉得自己是世界上最幸运的人之一,每一天都是如此。而且不只是在阿波罗,在其他地方也有很多让我感兴趣的事情。世界上正在发生很多事情,我们每个人都有自己的角色。现在我的日常工作是在阿波罗,但正如您所知,我一直非常积极地参与美国大学校园里发生的事情。
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I don't know if it's genetic or otherwise because there's there's just no basis on which to know, um but I will say that I wake up, I think I'm one of the luckiest people in the world every single day and there's no shortage of things that interest me not just at Apollo, but elsewhere, there's so much going on in the world and each of us has a role to play, now my day job is is at Apollo, but as you know, I've been very active in what's happening on American campuses in our universities.
Nicolai: 我应该在这里指出,我们一起在沃顿商学院董事会任职,我就是在那儿认识您的。嗯,但您也经营餐馆,您有一家龙虾餐馆。
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And I probably should just flag here that we've been sitting at the warden board together, which is where I got to know you, um but you also do restaurants, you have a a lobster, you know restaurant.
Marc: 嗯,餐馆很容易,因为它实际上,我什么都不懂经营餐馆,但我有一个很棒的合伙人。但如果您看看我们现在谈论的爱好,我们不仅对慈善事业(Philanthropy: 指通过捐赠金钱、时间或资源来促进人类福祉和公共利益的行为)感兴趣,我们还需要时间给自己。我的爱好之一是建造东西。我不收藏任何东西,没有艺术品,没有汽车,没有葡萄酒,什么都没有。但我喜欢建造东西。我做过的一件事是翻新了汉普顿萨格港主街上的一座历史建筑,我有一个餐馆租户。那家餐馆倒闭了,我的空间空置了六个月。然后我有了第二个租户,另一家餐馆,它也倒闭了。我花了一年时间才意识到我是在经营餐馆,只是我不知道。所以我成立了一家管理公司,我雇佣了一个很棒的合伙人,他真的懂经营餐馆。我则做有趣的部分:设计、施工、菜单选择和概念。但一旦开业,我就是顾客,一个非常开心的顾客,但仍然是顾客。
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Well, restaurants are easy because it's it's actually I don't know anything about running a restaurant, but I have an amazing partner, but if you look at we now talk about Hobbies, which is not only are we interested in philanthropy, we're interested, but we also need time for ourselves, one of my hobbies is building things, I collect nothing, no art, no cars, no wine, no nothing, but I like to build things, one of the things I did was I renovated a historic building out in the Hamptons on the Main Street in Sag Harbor and I had as a tenant a restaurant, well that restaurant went out of business and my space was dark for six months, I then had a second tenant another restaurant who also went out of business, took me a year to realize I was in the restaurant business, I just didn't know it, so I formed a management company, I hired a terrific partner who actually know something about running a restaurant and I get to do the fun part, I get to do design, construction, menu selection and concept, but once it opens, I'm a customer, a very happy customer, but a customer.
Nicolai: 您做决策时,是基于分析还是直觉?
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Yeah, when you make decisions, are they um analytically based or are they gutfield based?
Marc: 两者都有。我是一个分析型人才(Analytical Person: 指擅长通过逻辑推理、数据分析和系统性思考来解决问题和做出决策的人),但并非所有事情都能被分析。很多时候,我们是在对人做出判断,对我们获取的信息来源做出判断。正如您所知,我们生活在一个不确定性(Uncertainty: 指未来事件或结果无法被准确预测的状态)的世界中,所以两者都有一点。
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They're both, um I'm an analytical person, but not everything can be analyzed, uh a lot of times we're making judgments on on people and judgments on the source of information that we're getting, as you know, we live in a world of uncertainty and so a little bit of each.
Nicolai: 您如何应对压力?
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M how do you cope with stress?
Marc: 我不觉得这份工作压力巨大。我知道人们觉得这很奇怪,但我就是不觉得。我感受不到这份工作的压力。我真的相信我们是世界上最幸运的人,能够做这份工作。我们这里的口号是“我们能做这件事”。每当公司里有人告诉我他们不喜欢自己正在做的事情时,就意味着他们应该在阿波罗系统内换一份工作,或者找其他事情做。如果您经常来上班,却不觉得“我能做这件事”,那么这份工作就不适合您。我能做这件事。
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I don't find the job tremendously stressful, I know people find that weird, but I just don't, I don't feel the stress from this job, I literally believe we are the luckiest people in the world to be able to do this, this the slogan we have here is we get to do this anytime someone tells me in The Firm they don't like what they're doing, it's time for them to have another job within the Apollo system or to find something else to do, if you come in pretty often and you don't think I get to do this, this is not the right job for you, I get to do this.
Nicolai: 那么当您面试公司的人时,您会问他们什么?您在招聘人才时最看重什么?
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So when you interview people for this firm, what do you ask them? What is key for you when you hire people?
Marc: 看,您想深入了解他们是谁,他们如何思考,以及什么驱动着他们。所以任何有助于您了解这些的问题,以及他们是否具备胜任工作的基本技能。如果他们能走到我这里,通常我的团队已经意识到他们有资格胜任这份工作。问题是他们是否适合。我们是一个更难融入的地方,但我相信作为一个职业生涯,这里是一个更好的地方。
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Look, you you want you want some insight into who they are and how they think and what drives them, so whatever questions help you get at that along with the basics of are they skilled to do their job, if they get to me, generally my team has already realized that they're qualified to do the job, the question is are they going to fit, we are a harder place to integrate into, but I believe a better place to be as a career.
Nicolai: 您说“难融入”是什么意思?
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What do you mean hard to integrate into?
Marc: 所以我会说以下几点:我们运营一个整合平台(Integrated Platform: 指将不同功能、系统或服务整合到一个统一的框架中,以提高效率和协作)。这意味着您将受益于许多其他信息和资源,这些信息和资源通常与您的特定部门无关。如果我们是一家由一系列孤岛(Silos: 指组织内部各部门或团队之间缺乏沟通和协作,各自为政的状态)组成的公司,您可以加入我们公司,深入了解您的孤岛,并在这里取得巨大成功。但因为我们是一个整合平台,您不仅要了解您的孤岛,还要了解公司内部谁做什么。这使得融入变得更难,但一旦您掌握了这一点,您在工作中获得的杠杆作用是不可思议的。
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So I'd say the following, we run a fully integrated platform, that means you are the beneficiary of lots of other information, lots of other resources that are not generally associated with your specific Department, if we were the kind of firm where we were a series of silos, you could join our firm and get to know your Silo really well and be very successful here, because we are an integrated platform, you don't just have to get to know your Silo, you have to get to know who does what across the firm, that makes it harder to integrate, but once you master that, the leverage you get in your job is unbelievable.
这适合所有人吗?不,不适合所有人。有些人只想独处,做他们擅长的事情,而且他们做得非常好。他们可能会非常成功,但可能不会在这里非常成功。另一方面,那些好奇、理解跨平台相互依赖(Mutual Dependency: 指不同实体之间相互依赖、相互影响的关系)的人,理解一切事物如何相互关联的人,我认为非常适合这里。
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And so is that for everyone? No, it's not for everyone, there are some people who just want to be left alone to do what they do and they do it really well, they could be really successful, but probably not really successful here, on the other hand, people who are curious who understand the mutual dependency of looking across the platform, understanding how everything relates to everything else, I think are ideally suited for here.
Nicolai: 您如何指导您的领导者?
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How do you Mentor your leaders?
Marc: 这很有趣。我来告诉您我们正在努力做的事情,它会给您一些关于指导的启发。像我们公司或我们行业中的任何一家公司,我们都比我们想象的更成功。大多数成功的公司最终都会回归均值。公司内部的领导者开始“不求有功,但求无过”,而不是“力求取胜”。如果您想创新,您必须让团队“力求取胜”。您如何做到这一点?
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This is it's an interesting thing, so I'm I'm going to I'll tell you what we're working on and it'll give you some notion into into mentorship, you take a firm like ours or anyone in our industry, we've been more successful than any of us ever thought we would be, most companies who are successful eventually revert to the mean, people inside the firm leaders start playing not to lose rather than playing to win, if you want to innovate, you have to get the team to play to win, how do you do that?
嗯,部分原因在于您必须让他们安全地做出决定并允许失败。那么我们如何做到这一点?我试图为他们树立榜样,让他们知道如果我三分之二的时间是正确的,那已经很多了。我经常失败,至少三分之一的时间会失败。但我失败得很快,我承认它,我纠正它,然后继续前进。这与众不同。我不是说我们在金钱或投资方面也这样做,但在我们如何运营业务、如何招聘人员、如何定位业务方面,我们不会每次做决定都正确。
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Well, in part you have to make it safe for them to make a decision and to fail, y so how do we do that? I am try to emulate it for them, which is I let them know that I'm if I'm right 2third of the time, that's a lot and I fail a lot, at least a third of the time, but I fail quickly, I acknowledge it, I fix it and I move on to the next, that's that's different, I'm not saying we do that with money or with Investments, but in terms of how we run the business and who we hire, how we position the business, we are not going to be right every time we make a decision.
创造一个人们不害怕做决定、不害怕失败、能够公开说“我搞砸了,让我们纠正它并迅速前进”的地方,是能够“力求取胜”而不是“不求有功,但求无过”的重要组成部分。
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Creating a place where people are not afraid to make a decision and are not afraid to fail and can openly say I screwed that up, let's fix it and move on quickly is a big part of what it takes, I believe to be able to play to win and not just play not to lose.
Nicolai: 您上次失败是什么时候?
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When did you lose last?
Marc: 我们一直在失败。具体来说,我们有很多人离开了阿波罗,我们在那里做出了错误的决定,我们在增长或其他方面做出了错误的决定。
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We lose all the time, specifically, look we uh I we have lots of people who have come and gone from Apollo where we made bad decisions where we made bad decisions on growth or something else.
Nicolai: 如果您试图概括您所犯的错误类型,它们有什么共同点吗?
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If you were to try to abstract the type of mistakes you you've made is do they have anything in common?
Marc: 它们是人的错误,是规模化方面的错误。很多时候,它们是时间框架的错误。成功有什么共同点?对我们来说,成功通常是我们正确地定位了自己,市场在正确的时间到来,或者我们抢先一步。我们相信一些别人不相信的事情,然后我们去执行。对我们来说,我们所做的最重要的事情就是退休服务。是的,我们最初只用了100万美元,现在这项业务的资产管理规模达到了4000亿美元,有100家公司希望效仿我们所做的。
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Their their people mistakes, their difficulty of scaling mistakes, or and a lot of times they're time frame mistakes and successes, what do they have in common for you? Success is usually we've positioned ourselves the right way and the market came at the right time or we got there first, we believ something that no one else believed and we just went went about and executed by for us the biggest thing that we've done has been Retirement Services, yeah, we literally started with $1 million to a business that is now 400 billion of assets under management where we have a 100 firms who would like to emulate what we've done.
Nicolai: 您设法在其他人出售大型投资组合时收购它们,对吗?
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And you managed to acquire big portfolios when other people sold them, right?
Marc: 答案是肯定的,但我们已经很多年没有收购投资组合了。现在我们每年有机增长700亿美元的业务,这远远超过市场上现有公司的业务量,这令人难以置信。
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It's not only the answer is yes, but we haven't acquired a portfolio for years at this point, we now do 70 billion of organic business which is by far the largest amount of business versus established names in the marketplace, it's incredible.
Nicolai: 您读什么书?
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Um what do you read?
Marc: 我主要读历史书。嗯,我喜欢读很多关于中东的书。我发现那是一个迷人的地方,不仅因为今天正在发生的事情,还因为正在发生的变化。我上周刚从中东回来,回来时充满了希望。该地区的大多数国家,我们二十年前认为它们是极端主义的温床,现在都专注于为人民创造更美好的未来,专注于商业,专注于推动社会进步,很少有极端主义。我从中东之行回来时充满了希望。
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I read mostly history, um I like to read a lot about the Middle East, I find it a just a fascinating place not only because of what's going on today, but just because of how much change is taking place, I'm just back from the Middle East last week and I come back incredibly hopeful, you have most of the countries in the region who we thought of two decades ago as Meed in extremism, focused on bettering the future for their people, on Commerce, on moving their their society s forward, very little in the way of extremism, I come away from a trip to the Middle East incredibly hopeful.
Nicolai: 现在,嗯,有成千上万的年轻人正在听这个节目,您会给他们什么建议?您会给1984年的马克·罗文什么建议?
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Now, um we have tens of thousands of young people listening to this, what advice would you give them? What advice would you have given to you know Mark Rowan in a 1984?
Marc: 看,嗯,我花了很多时间与年轻人交谈,这是这份工作有趣的一部分。我告诉他们同样的事情:精通您的技艺。最终,当您成为技艺大师时,您就能做更多的事情。一旦您做到了,您就可以抬起头,环顾四周,开始连接点。其次,对自己诚实。所有这些工作都非常困难。我们不应该对此感到羞怯,这些工作都非常困难。如果您从根本上不热爱它,您就不会在这个行业中长期成功。
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Look, uh so I I spent a lot of time talking to young people, it's it's part of the fun, the fun part of this job and I tell them all the same thing, master your craft, like ultimately you get to do more when you become a master of your craft, once you do that, then you can pick your head up and you can look around and start to connect the dots, the second is be honest with yourself, all of these jobs are really hard, we should make we should not be shy about this, these are all really hard, if you don't fundamentally love it, you will not be successful long term in this business.
Nicolai: 嗯,马克,您无疑已经精通您的技艺,您已经将这家公司定位得非常好,使其真正受益于所有有利因素。祝贺您,这太棒了。
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Well, Mark, you have for sure mastered your craft, you have positioned this firm uh to really benefit from from you know all the all the wins and uh congratulations, it's been amazing.
Marc: 谢谢,这非常有趣,我很幸运有200名员工让我看起来很棒。
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Thank you, it's been a tremendous amount of fun and I'm fortunate to have 200 people who make me look good.
Nicolai: 好的,谢谢。
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All right, good, thank you.
Marc: 好的,谢谢您,尼古拉。
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All right, thank you n.