主持人: Welcome to another episode of the All-In Interview. I'm really excited to be joined by uh back to All-In Harvard professor Graeme Allison. Professor Allison, welcome back to AllIn.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Thanks for having me.

主持人: We last had you at the uh summit in Los Angeles, so it's great to have a conversation. A lot's happened since we last got together. For the audience, Graeme Allison's the founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School. He's advised every Secretary of Defense since Kessinger. He's helped dismantle 12,000 Soviet nuclear weapons and his book, Destined for War, remains the definitive framework for understanding the USChina relationship. I think it's worth kind of bringing forward some of the things that have happened in the world since we last met. I'm going all in.

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主持人: Let's start with Iran. The US and Israel are in the middle of an attack on Iran and the Supreme Leader is dead, but the regime is still holding on to power. Where do you think this conflict will take us? And are we sleepwalking into World War II?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Well, thank you again for having me back. I You'll have a great podcast. I enjoyed the summit and I'm sorry we're not there in person to to catch up but I think about a man uh how much to say so this could be a long lecture let me just do four or five quick points first point most important point is that there's more questions than answers though there's a huge level of uncertainty currently about what's happening and about what's likely to happen

格雷厄姆·艾利森: part of this is Clausitz's famous fog of war, but there's a fog of war that's actually increased because we got two big fog machines uh adding to the confusion uh namely Trump and the administration on the one hand and BB on the other and then we got all the chattering class around this. So I would say why did Trump decide to go to war now? There's six different reasons he and the administration have given and each one they back out. What's the objective? Uh there's five different objectives backing around. And when is this war going to end? You know, a day, a week, a month, who knows? So, it's very uncomfortable to recognize how uncertain things are.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: And most of the conversation about it tries to make it more confident. But I think the place to start is there's a huge amount of uncertainty. Having said that, I'll still give you my prejudices about a few of the points. Point two, this has been an extraordinary uh demonstration of supreme military power and supreme intelligence power. US military and the intelligence community and the Israeli counterparts have been way way way off the charts and I think they should make all Americans proud of what's been built over this decade of two decades of investment but especially the past decade.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Uh third point, there's no tears to be shed for Ham and Islamic Republic regime. It's an evil leader, an evil regime. There's no bad thing that could happen to them that we shouldn't be cheering out of that. So, next point though, breaking something's a lot easier than building something. And destroying targets is something that our military knows very well how to do. Building a new regime, regime change is something that we know historically uh doesn't work very well, at least in Iraq and Afghanistan.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: We had every word said that's been said in this case. And we then went in allin and spent more than a billion dollars of many, many thousands of American lives. And when we went through Afghanistan, the Taliban were ruling. when we left Afghanistan, the Taliban were ruling. So I would say unfortunately it's against a backdrop that's hard. The next point slightly more controversial, but I think this is BB's war. If your reader or your listeners don't remember Mumby Dick, they should go look at it again. Ahab had this fixation obsession with the white whale and tried to find a way to kill the white whale whenever he could.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: For the last two decades, that's been BB's number one, number two, number three agenda. He's tried to sell that war to uh Obama, uh to Trump won, to Biden, and how he succeeded in mesmerizing Trump, whom I thought had his number, I'm surprised. So, I'm pro-Israel, but antiBB in this respect. And I think that uh I understand he's brilliant politically. But I don't think this uh uh the arguments that were made that uh that Trump has actually repeated that in was about to attack us. I see no evidence for that. That Iran was about to get a nuclear weapon. I see no evidence for that. that Iran was building an ICBM that was going to attack the US. I see no evidence for that.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: There's many many bad things about the Iranian regime, but not most of the claims that that were made. So, I I look at this and I hope it turns out well, but I remember that in wars very frequently, it's easy to get in and it's quite difficult to get out.

主持人: Let me double click on that point. You mentioned there's multiple reasons that the administration has messaged for doing this, multiple views on what success looks like, multiple timelines on ending it, and that this is BB's war. How do you think Trump was motivated to do this? What is the real motivation? And I will ask this in the context of the big delegation and visit to China coming up next month. Is Trump motivated fundamentally to create leverage with China and use this as a tool to try and maximize his negotiating leverage going into the Chinese negotiations?

格雷姆·艾利森: That's a great question and I wish that the answer was this was all part of a grand strategy. That would make me feel hugely better. But uh I try to do Trumpology and I was actually having dinner last night with Bill O'Reilly, a former student who I think is one of the better Trumpologists were trying to interpret and we were going back and forth through this.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: It's easy enough to see why the window tactically the window in which this attack occurred was chosen because here you got 40 you got the supreme leader and 40 of the other leaders of Iran out in public. So that's an opportunity as a target and the best opportunity that's come along. The question is why would you be attacking them and especially Trump given his uh campaign and his previous views about not repeating the mistakes of the people that took us into endless windless wars. And I think it's I mean I I think BB is a magician. I think his single-mindedness uh is impressive. I think his agility in making arguments and developing arguments is impressive.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: How he managed to persuade Trump this was a good idea for the US. Now I don't have a good idea. And I think that uh I think if I listen to the reasons why even the people closest around them have given or that Trump have given, they don't seem persuasive. Now partly Trump is erratic. uh partly he sort of you know acts on the basis of instincts uh somehow it came to him that this was uh you know something that could be done. I think actually BB painted a pretty uh I mean the upside of this picture if if it's successful and I hope now that we've gone into it it would be would be redefining security in the Middle East for a generation.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So getting rid of the Iranian regime as the uh BBN company have gotten rid of the proxies of the regime earlier which again since October 7 been extremely impressive could possibly you could saying well there's going to be a whole new Middle East and if the if the Middle East were all like the UAE uh that would be fantastic uh fantastic for all the human beings that live there. So I think maybe he got excited by the upside, not quite uh careful enough about the risks or the downside because it the number of ways in which this could go wrong. You know, if if we woke up tomorrow or today and a couple of ships have been sunk or a couple hundred of Americans have been killed, this going to have a very different uh a different image.

主持人: And you think that this is independent then of the action with Maduro and independent of the big delegation headed to China for a big negotiation next month.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Well, I wouldn't say entirely independent. I would think with Madera. So Trump I think this again this is my whatever armchair Trumpology but I would say initially he thought tariffs were a magic wand and every leader thinks if you have a magic wand that's fantastic. He's tried the tariff magic wand and discovered it didn't quite have all the effects that he imagined on liberation day. Uh he then discovered the American military which genuinely is a huge one and the Maduro operation was just spectacular. I mean again it's a military and intelligence operation. Brilliant. No other country in the world could even imagine doing something like that.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: And that actually you know makes all of us stand taller. It can also provide a little or historically encourages hubris and an imagination that this magic wand can work in many other arenas. I don't mind at all the proposition that every other country should take account of the fact that the US has the most remarkable military and intelligence community in the world. And that's not a bad backdrop for China and for a China trip. So, I agree that things may not be completely disconnected, but I think in terms of the timing, I mean, right now, when is the war going to be over? If you talk about 3 or 4 weeks, we're we'll already he'll be in China March 29.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So, my inclination again, if we were just doing prediction markets, is that he's going to find a way to declare this over before then because he needs a little time to get his mind set on that. But if you ask the folks at the defense department or if you ask the people in Israel, they're thinking this is another month or beyond this award.

主持人: So again, just things I don't think are quite, you know, in sync.

杰森: Jason's joined us. Professor Allison, it's always a treat to have you on.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Nice to see you.

杰森: It's just amazing to have you on here and to give us this time. If things were to go extremely well and Iran went from a monarchy to a dictatorship and now in this third act here in the modern day to a democracy and you actually had a democracy with 93 million citizens in the Middle East, what impact would that have on the region? We've seen the Gulf monarchies evolve human rights, but they're still monarchies. You have one other I I guess democracy in the region in Israel, but this could be extraordinary if it was a democracy. But what would that mean to the to the global chessboard?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Well, it's a good question. I mean, if this could occur, it would be spectacular even I think but I would say this is way way way too ambitious. There's a hundred things that would be wonderful outcomes better than what's likely that would be short of that. I remember uh in Iraq after Bush failed to find nuclear weapons which was the initial I would say somewhat cucked up rationale for our going into Iraq.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Kandi Rice who was the secretary gave a speech about well how wonderful it'll be when Iraq is a democracy and market economy quote radiating stability through the Middle East. So we're pretty good at doing I have a dream you know in that version. I think that's a way way way stretch. I would be very happy with a regime there that simply was not about uh building nuclear weapons, was not about building missiles that threaten the US and our friends and allies in the region, and not about supporting proxies.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: And if it's a pretty cruel regime, unfortunately, that's unfortunate for the Iranian people, the Persian people. Uh when I'm a student of history, I love Persia. You know, I remember uh Cyrus and I remember uh the Pelpeneisian war. I remember, you know, this is a fantastic culture in history. They've been hijacked by a terrible, terrible group of people. And if those people can be somehow ousted, you know, wonderful for Iranian people and wonderful for the world. I I if I were betting it again, I'd say go back to the first point. It questions uncertainty, finding signals in the noise, extremely difficult.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: But if I rebuilding it, it'll end up that the guys with the guns will in some version uh be the next iteration. And uh if they're tamer and less uh uh determined uh to threaten our interests, will this have been worth it? Well, again, we'll have to look at, you know, over the longer run. I think the other thing that we know about wars is that they're unpredictable and that they have many unanticipated consequences.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Now I think as we watch what's happening now and see what impact does that have on oil and gas prices predictable so you can see and going and going well what impact does that have on other countries are huge so the number of countries now whose economies are being disrupted by this impact and therefore blaming us for it. So I had a call from someone in Taiwan uh yesterday saying wait a minute did anybody think what it's doing for us since they had about half of their their electricity comes from their natural gas that that is now come you know now not not coming. Uh if you ask about what is this meaning for I for Ukraine, all the patriots that were to hope to prevent missile strikes from Russia on Ukraine are now in the Middle East.

主持人: So that's many more target. So there's just unfortunately it unfolds in so many so many different directions. Now I don't want to seem too pessimistic about it because again I think we've been shocked fortunately on the upside by how uh professional our military has and intelligence folks have been and also how pathetic uh or hollow the Iranians have been. First day of the attack, I was at the defense department and I gave them a list of 11 things that I would do and be capable of doing if I were playing the Iranian hand. And uh they seem to be I mean I I I hardly even want to say out loud, but they they act like a paper tiger.

主持人: Do you think there's there's more damage that can be done by being more successful? You know, if we think back to Iran, Iran is twice as many people, 100 million versus 50 million, four times the land area, a much better equipped military, and arguably the military system, the regime is embedded in every aspect of industry. So the more successful the United States is in dismantling the Iranian regime and as was advised by Condisa Rice who apparently was just in the White House today and advising the president and publicly stated it's time to finish them off. It's time to go all the way etc. Does that not then leave a country with no infrastructure, no leadership, 100 million people in tatters, and that's the classic breeding ground for some of these extremist groups to seize control and seize power and we don't have the resources to go in and have another multi-deade Afghanistan Iraq problem.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: I'm afraid I agree. Yes, I think the the uncertainties about that I mean you can do four or five different scenarios for how this might conceivably end it could end up being an extended civil war in in Iran among the various national groups even some of them possibly seceding. So again, fairly chaotic. Look like Syria plus. Okay. It could look like Iran or Afghanistan. Well, excuse me. We were there for more than a decade with unlimited resources. Hardly any constraints on the number of people. And how did that work out?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So I I I say that I'm I'm a small C conservative and kind of think history is not always certainly not the only guide but is a good place to start. So I'm I'm I would say nervous. Yeah.

主持人: Is it too late to have a Venezuelan outcome where we've taken out the head of the snake and we've simply replaced it? The snake can continue operating and living without too much destructive damage and effect. But it seems like we may be a little too far gone now in Iran and that to take this all the way might be very difficult to manage.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Is it too late?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: If I were again that we're all in the dark and all the uncertainty. So back to point one, but after that I would say Trump is erratic, impulsive, but he has some coordinates and one of them is is his power.

主持人: November 3rd is a big day for him. He's focused on that. The economy is a crucial element of that. That's part of the framing of the of the China relationship.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: The impact of this on the economy is already evident. Okay. And could become more evident. The public opinion again. I think he's I saw today uh uh in the journal that he's sent Higs Higsmith out to sell the war.

主持人: Mhm.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Good luck. I'm not sure he can sell. Uh so the public opinion of this it's about six to four unfavorable because they didn't make the case for the war in advance.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Uh the impact of this on other parties including parties that we care about is negative. Uh so I I can easily imagine in the next week even declare if you look at that sheet the way in which he's left himself room to declare victory at having as you say had cut off the head of the stake destroyed their milit their nuclear capabilities destroy their ability to project power or in the defense department we always say destroy or degrade degrade has a lot of dimensions as you would point out and uh now it's up to the Iranian people to seize their own government and take advantage of themselves.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: The difficulty with that will be BB wants to fight on till the regime is destroyed and that'll be an interesting struggle to see how that goes. Earlier Trump demonstrated that when he thought it was in American interest he was prepared to pull BB's chain. So we'll see. This is uh I think in before we move out of the Mina region a topic that's coming up there's obviously no support for this war in America most Americans put foreign affairs today at one or two% of their concern economy and many other issues are are high on their list and he's been pretty clear hey we're not going to put boots on the ground.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: And then there's this anti-semitic underpinning that's happening in America that's become pretty acute and you had uh Rubia who we mentioned earlier say, "Hey, we did this because uh the Israelis were going in anyway and we had no choice." And then they walked that back. Explain to the audience how we should look at that turn of events where there's a group of people in America, specifically people in the MAGA party, who believe Trump has betrayed them and that he's captured by the Israeli um government in some way and he's doing their bidding. I'm not saying that. That's my perspective, but that is a an undertone that we're seeing and that's something new in our lifetime.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: I think it it certainly is. So, this is a big topic, but I'd say when I talk about it, I I I say I'm pro-Israeli and anti-BB. So, is BB is not Israel. The people whom I know mostly and respect mostly in Israel are the national security barons. the people who've been the chief of staff or the head of Mossad or the head of Shinbet or the people that work in that in those structures and they believe that BB is actually destroying the Bengorians Israeli democracy that they cared about.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Or if take Tom Freriedman, it's pretty hard to accuse him of being anti- is, you know, anti-Semitic. Uh but he's been I think very clear and very uh courageous in pointing out that what BB's doing to Israel's democracy is really destroying it and the impact of that on Jewish kids in America. I mean I say this on campus where they want to be proud of Israel. They uh they deserve to be proud of the country that has been built over these years, but they look at the behavior of these crazy right-wing settlers and their activities in the in the occupied West Bank or they look at some of the activities in Gaza or they look at now the kind of unlimited uh uh war without any any even attempt to make arguments about proportionality and just say, "Wait a minute, that's not the country I want to be proud of. I want to be proud of of Rabbin's Israel. I want to be proud of Ahud Barak's Israel. I want to be proud of Benorian's Israel.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: And I'm I'm pretty much of that of that persuasion. I think what what uh what BB risks in this and risked earlier uh with uh citing I mean inter interfering in American politics in invites push back. So I think this could have a big long-term negative effect both in the Democratic party and the Republican party especially under under younger people. If you look at the polling for the under30s on Israel, it's just like shocking. Yeah.

主持人: Can we move to China because I think that again this is going to be the big story over the next month. You've said publicly that ousting Maduro from Venezuela could embolden China to accelerate a Taiwan takeover. The CIA, it has been reported in media, warned Tim Cook of Apple and other tech companies about a possible invasion as soon as next year. You've separately met publicly with Chinese officials. What's your view on the likelihood and the timeline of a China attempted takeover of Taiwan and what are these kind of motivating factors that might make that happen sooner?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So, uh, let me clarify. I I'm not sure or I may have been misinterpreted, but obviously the Chinese watch very carefully. They study wars and they will learn lessons from what's going on here, but I don't think that is a I don't think the Venezuelan operation other than making them feel envious about the capabilities will impact their likelihood of attacking Taiwan.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So Taiwan number one, I think the likelihood of an attack on Taiwan this year or next year or even into 28, but let me just do 26 and 27 absent some major provocation by Taiwan or some other third incident is very low. I put it at about where the where the prediction markets are 5% or something low. So I'm not counting on that. Second,

主持人: why is that so low? I'm just curious

主持人: why 5%.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Yeah.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Okay. Because first they they have a theory of the case of what they call peaceful reunification and they think things are evolving in that direction.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: The theory of the case is that the current uh government which is a DPP government currently is is stymied by its opposition in the parliament. So they can't even buy the arm sales that we previously gave them. There's 11 billion arm sales that the Chinese have complained about. But Taiwan is the legislature probably won't buy half of that. Okay. So the current president is struggling. There's going to be an election in January 28th and they think it's likely that the former party, the KMT, will be elected. somebody they'll be much more sympathetic to China and to a an evolving relationship. So that's number one.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Number two, the Chinese have been engaged in a a deep deep purge of all of their military leadership. I mean, it's hard to believe and you read about the paper from time to time that he fired this guy, he fired this guy. He's fired the equivalent of every fourstar in our whole political system and every combatant commander and every commander who would be commandering the force commanding the forces over you know to deal with Taiwan. So while they've been building up that military capability takes a long time to get that back into order in my view. So I would say that part makes me feel less likely.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Third, I think he understands that uh if he were to do this, there's a risk, not a certainty, but a risk that the US would become involved and that the impact of that either on China's economy, which he's got to worry about first, then also on its evolution, would be significant. So, I'm I'm looking for uh and oh, sorry. Finally in Trump uh he has the most accommodating president uh that China is likely to see with respect to Taiwan. So Trump has made no secrets. I mean he talks publicly of his views about Taiwan and I think a couple of the memoirs there's this discussion where he's in the oval and he's talking about Taiwan and he picked somebody asked him about Taiwan. He picks up one of those Sharpies and goes, you know, on a spot on the Resolute desk and he says that Taiwan. Then he draws his hand around the whole desk. He said that's China.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So I'd say I'm less worried about Taiwan in the on the on the current path. Now over the longer run, the Chinese are absolutely clear, she and all the leadership that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China and how that could be satisfied in a way that allow the Taiwanese the degree or substantial degree of the uh freedom for both their economy and their society is the challenge that we've been struggling with for a long time. But the good news is we've been doing this for 50 years and Taiwan has never seen such a better, you know, such such circumstances. So I say to the Taiwanese friends, you know, basically don't uh don't screw it up.

主持人: Are we taking the right course of action, do you think? I guess the big question for for you is what's the strategic imperative to keep Taiwan from falling under direct Chinese control for the United States and are we taking the right actions to hedge our bets if you will against that happening meaning onshoring of semiconductor manufacturing but also maybe from a defense perspective and positioning perspective you can share a little bit about whether we're

格雷厄姆·艾利森: sure that's a big question so first Scott Bassent, the Secretary of the Treasury, when he's asked about this, he says the biggest threat that he's ever seen is the fact that 96% of the advanced semiconductors come from one small island that could become cut off. So TSMC, as you all have discussed before, produces the advanced semiconductors for essentially everybody of whom we're the principal consumer. and we prevent them uh shipping this to China. That's a pretty complicated situation to begin with. Uh secondly, Taiwan is halfway around the world as President Trump says and 90 miles off the shore of China and we're far away and we have a lot of other things to worry about.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So, it's a little bit like Cuba. So inherently indefensible if China were seriously determined to either destroy it or to take it. Now on the other hand since the opening to China and the Shanghai communicate there's been an agreement of maintaining a status quo uh with the US commitment being what's called strategic ambiguity in which uh the US and China have been committed to Taiwan internal development is left to its own device and China doesn't use military force to prevent that but we say Taiwan is there's one China and the only China's capital is Beijing and then we have a a little bit of ambiguous way to talk about the relationship between Taiwan and China but certainly letting it evolve in any way that the parties would be prepared to live with.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Most people expecting that over time this relationship will work its way out. And I when I talk to Chinese about it, I say to them, first, you've never seen 50 better years on either side of the straits. So this has been fantastic for both societies in terms of what they care about. And secondly, if they look at this situation, if China's core strategy is correct, which is the inexurable rise of China, and that continues in another decade or two, Taiwan will look like a fleet and therefore not going to be an issue. If it if China's main narrative doesn't work, Taiwan is not going to be their biggest problem. So they should work on the other issues. Yeah.

主持人: If you think about China projecting influence around the world, how important is it for them to continue to do that? There was recently an objective I think of a GDP growth in the 5% range. Four to 5%. Is that right? For China, which

格雷厄姆·艾利森: four and a half to five. Yeah.

主持人: Four and a half to five, which is a record low in recent history for them. Is it imperative for China to continue to extend geopolitical and economic influence around the world to grow its economy? You know, going back to the framing of the rising power, do they still need to do that to keep people happy at home? Or is China going to be able to maintain happiness at home in a multi-olar world where China and perhaps the US and perhaps some other countries share influence around the world. This is one you raised and we talked about the last time which is interesting. I think we agreed. So let me uh just again for people that don't remember start.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So first China is a meteoric rising power. Never has a country risen so far so fast on so many different dimensions. If you take a snapshot of the year 2000 and the year 2025 and compare China on any metric of power, it's just dumbfounding dumbfounding. So, a country uh that uh I have compared it to kind of like a a Formula 1 racing, a country that we couldn't find in our rearview mirror in 2020 or sorry, 2000 because it was so far behind. We have trouble finding in our rearview mirror today because it's beside us or in many races even slightly ahead of us.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So, that's GDP. It was less than 5% of global or it was less than a quarter the US in 2000. Today by pursing power parity it's 25% larger. In 2000 trading it was uh 5% of global today and we were 15. Today it's 35 and we're 25. If you do advanced tech in any any arena, take 5G, but my goodness, take EVs. Oh my goodness, take whatever. Okay, so rapidly rising power. That's essential. That's the infrastructure for their grand narrative, which is the inexraable rise of China to its natural position in the international order, which they think is at the top of the pyramid.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So they are absolutely determined to be number one in their own arena to begin with and then after that you know maybe more and they also they have a second the second proposition there's the inexraable decline of the US and they look at the various parts of the US and the components including getting involved in unnecessary wars as part of that story that part of their narrative and That dynamic, the shifting of the seessaw, is what gives you this thusidity and dynamic that we discussed before, which most often, hard as it is to believe, but most often discombobulates people so much that then some incident or accident like something that happens over Taiwan leads to a vicious circle of actions and reactions that drags them into a war after which they think, "My god, how did this ever happen?"

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So that's a long story but I would say the economic piece is essential for this and that economic piece means they want to be the manufacturing work workshop for the world and the foundry for the world and the supplier for the world. There are two major challenges they have uh I believe one of them is population decline other is unemployment and the AI that we've seen and what's hitting first

主持人: could hit them in a major way manufacturing is moving to robotics at an alarming place then you have things like self-driving which is a major job there uh for for many people so on those two axis when you see the youth unemployment which I think is 15 or 20% in um locations in China and population decline. Is that she's two biggest challenges to deal with and and how does that affect this, you know, bipo this uh uh relationship?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Good question. And this is more in your space than mine cuz I've tried to follow. But Elon says there's going to be more robots than people. Okay.

主持人: Yeah.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: And if you ask him where where are the most advanced robots in the world, the ones that are kicking his ass or he worries about they're China. So they got a huge number of robot companies. When I was there in uh last when was I last there in uh um January I went to see a factory Xiaomi Xiaomi the phone company. Xiaomi 3 years ago decided they would make cars after watching Apple spend $10 million not able to make a car. within three years. That factory is producing cars right now and they have a huge demand for these cars. They have three lines. One of the lines is all robots. Okay?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So, they're putting a lot of robots to work. More than half of the working the factory worker robots in the world are in China. Uh and so some of the people are saying well you know demographics is going to be not so big a problem because if demographics is only a problem because of workers you know we're going to have work in fact the American workers are more worried about you know taking our jobs. So that's a now the the issue of for the uh impact on education they have uh a number of people that have been educated in arenas that are now no longer you know high demand jobs and unfortunately we have a lot of that too I mean if you look at people college graduates now that graduated in I don't know DEI subjects they're having trouble uh getting jobs so I would say uh it's a little they're more similar ilarities there than differences.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: The other thing is Chinese have demonstrated a great much greater capacity or readiness to adopt and adapt to new technologies. So if you look at uh I'm sure you have or you all have probably had him on Jinsen Wong uh but when he went to China he said gee I think I came to the future you know that uh uh the people don't you know they don't use not only do they not use uh uh coins they don't use bills they don't use checks they don't use credit cards they just have their face and then go through the story

主持人: let's shift round to what some have described as the longer term playing field which is near the Arctic. Some have argued that much of the recent push for Greenland by the United States is driven by the military threat coming over the Arctic from Russia and from China. I'm wondering if you could just help frame for our audience why is Greenland so strategic to the United States and is this effectively a proxy for defense against China and Russia and why now?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Another big question. So let me start with the bottom line. I think the at least from the judgments of the people whom I respect the most, we can we the US can get everything we want from Greenland without invading it or owning it. So Greenland has been an important base for missile defenses, a dual duel base. We had two other bases that we closed, but we can open as many other bases as we want, and they're very amidable to that.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: I think President Trump's right to say, well, yeah, but I don't want a short-term lease on these bases. I would say a 99-year lease sounds like a pretty good lease to me for, you know, in 99 years, God knows what's going to be happening. But to the extent that missile defense and uh is part of it, which it is, I would say that's a part for the naval component. Yes. I think the as uh the Arctic uh melts, you already now have an opening of sea lanes and

格雷厄姆·艾利森: the way that the uh the territorial ownership uh the abuters have their claim to the local and the regional and there the the main claims are Russian and Canadian. We have a chunk from Alaska and then Greenland would be a piece of that. So, I would say that's relevant. But those sea lanes, uh, at least for the Navy people I talked to are they're not as important as they used to be because now there's so many different ways to get it. You're not going to uh try to blockade a a uh, you know, a a waterway uh, with ships. You're going to do it with smart mines or you're going to do it simply by attacking the ships on the on the array. And if it's underwater, uh underwater is pretty much all the same. I mean, it's good to have narrow places and shallow places for looking for things, but uh so I I I would say I think Trump's uh uh Greenland venture was more like for fun.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: plus uh I mean I think one of the people that knows him well says remember he's first off a reality TV producer and star so he just has fun starting with a a drama getting people very excited uh letting the tension rise and then finding a resolution and I think we're on track to a resolution there

主持人: let me push back just on that point what I have heard is that there's rising socialism in Western Europe. Growing concern that over time as socialism becomes more of the mainstay in the governing models in Western European nations, those nations fall more under the influence of China. And as a result, if you think about the influence that China could then have on on Denmark and on Danish foreign policy, if the United States doesn't secure what it needs for the long term, and it may not know what it needs for the long term physically in Greenland today, we only know what we need today. That we're at risk of China having outsized influence over Greenland tomorrow. And that that's the real reason for the big push today for Greenland. How does that sit with you and does that align kind of with with what some folks are are concerned about?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: I have to think about it. I hadn't heard that argument just that way. Again, what is socialism? It's complicated. Uh certainly the Chinese well yes they're socialists in some respect. I would say capitalism is I mean they're autocratic and they're partyled but then their economy is essentially uh fiercely uh capitalist. I mean, you have a uh the uh on one of the one of my friends glad gladatorial conflict that makes the competition in Silicon Valley look look tame as the you know as the parties fight each other. Uh so

主持人: because you can't make money because the taxes are so high. That's another

格雷厄姆·艾利森: and in their case you know they they they decide they're going into an arena. let's say for example EVs and so they give uh uh advantages to companies getting started even subsidies and then they let them fight it out and lo and behold at the end they'll be you know 10 or five but it's fiercely competitive in the meantime and a lot of guys will get you know trampled along the way and then those guys are excess capacity and they'll sell things off you know without any concern about the capex they're just as long as they can stay ahead of the game, you know, selling items or even selling out their inventory.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: So, I think the uh I think watching the way watching the evolution of other countries including Europe, I think uh and their relations with China as well as with us in this game is a very relevant point. And I would say the uh one of the things that the Trump administration has had trouble with is recognizing that if we're in a fierce rivalry with China, they got four times as many people. We need to have some allies with heft on our side of the seesaw to keep it from going the wrong direction. And so, yes, kind of sometimes you need to give your ally a cold bath in order to get them to shape up, but uh I think uh uh getting Canadians to think of us as an enemy is a great wild idea. uh uh I mean any treatment that comes to that conclusion and if you take Carney whom I know from when he's a Harvard college kid he's he's as American as anybody or he was but the idea if you go and threaten a politician's survival that's a pretty good way to piss him off and if you threaten to take territory from people that's a pretty good way to make them feel hostile.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Uh, so this is an unusual treatment if we're trying to, you know, get guys with heft on our side of the seesaw.

主持人: At the World Economic Forum, I wasn't sure if it was Davos or another one of their forums. Were you at the Davos one this year?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Sure.

主持人: So, as a total aside, just bringing President Trump's impact, it was two and a half days of people wondering what he would say when he got there.

主持人: The town shut down as people watched his 2hour standup, you know, delivery. and then another two days of people sort of trying to understand and figure out what happened there. So there's something

格雷厄姆·艾利森: it was a reality TV show for sure. Yeah. So he took over this fellow uh uh Mooch who was his communication guy for a week or 10 days till he got fired in the first administration said on the first night I was at an event he said remember this is going to be a re reality TV show. was going to start with the claim that we're going to invade Greenland, which my god, you're invading in a lie. That's a pretty big deal. He said, then you're going to watch the drama build. When Trump had a chance to speak, he's speaking this long ring back and forth back. But he then had a just a paragraph in which he said he basically took the gun off the table. But before that, he was doing a mafioso act. Even some some mafioso lines about, you know, you can either have it the easy way or the hard way. One of the that's a godfather line.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: And so people were saying, "Yes, you know, this what what has been loose on us." So now you have all this drama. But then he says, "I've decided we're not going to invade Greenland." You know, he just passes that off. So now the temperature goes down. And now the third day he does some other institute or board of peace and he says we now have a framework of an agreement. So uh I think I think half of the time he's having fun.

主持人: Yeah.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: You know it's sort of it does get people's attention.

主持人: Sure it does. uh you um on a substantive basis shared a framework 8089 and I think it you know I've spent a bunch of time listening to the talk you gave and and some people's um reaction to it maybe you could share it with the audience and why it's important. Oh, thank you. I'm glad you So, I think this is a big idea. So, these are three numbers, each of which is the answer to a question. And if you can remember the three numbers and you can identify the question to which each one is the answer, you have the big picture about international security in the lifetime of yourself and even your parents. That is virtually everybody who's alive today. So the first sity is the answer to what?

主持人: How long it's been since a world war?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: How many years since a great power war? Since a world war.

主持人: Yeah.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Now, whoa, wait a minute. 80 years. This is the longest piece in recorded history since Rome. This is not natural. This is very abnormal. This is a didn't happen by accident. This was what the people who founded the international order after World War II were trying to build a new world order because they had just lived through a terrible World War II simply one generation before they remembered, hey, there was World War I.

主持人: So if we just keep doing this, we should expect World War II.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: It should have already happened. If it could have happened at the human missile crisis. So no great power war. Fantastic. and but a a fragile a work in progress all the time eroding inevitably for many many different reasons right second 80 how many years

主持人: since we've had a nuclear uh bomb go off

格雷厄姆·艾利森: fantastic so think about that if you had gone if there had been prediction markets and you had gone in 1945 or 50 you would have got 10,000 to1 odds against that it's impossible the weapon that ended World War II two and you're not ever going to see any use of those weapons in war. Whoa. And then nine,

主持人: the number of countries, nation states that have nuclear bombs today.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Fantastic, Jack. Right. Now, how in the world could you have only nine countries having nuclear weapons? Nuclear weapons being your kind of ultimate security blanket. Again, John Kennedy uh in 1963 said by the 70s there'll be 25 or 30 nuclear weapons states cuz he thought that as states acquired the capability to build nuclear weapons they would do so. Today 90 95 states could have nuclear weapons in a year or two if they decided to build them. Actually into the 70s Sweden had a serious nuclear program. South Korea had a nuclear program. Taiwan had a nuclear program. US closed those down, created the so-called non-prololiferation regime that's accounted for this nine.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: But I would say again fragile, eroding, not likely to be sustained. So when I try to do my giving thanks for uh you know things that I should be thankful for, thankful for 80 years without a great power war. If there were a great power war, you and I, we wouldn't be here and we wouldn't be having this conversation and all the other issues we have to deal with. So I would say the 80 the 80 and 9 we should not take for granted. We should give thanks for the work that was done to to build them and then we should notice what's going to be required to sustain this.

主持人: And we almost had a 10th nuclear power in Iran.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: We did.

主持人: And we had the latest two if I'm correct here. You'll correct me because you're the expert. Pakistan and North Korea and we had that one doctor Khan I believe his name was from Pakistan who was trying to spread and sell these. So

格雷厄姆·艾利森: absolutely

主持人: did we make a critical error we being the west even the east humanity the leadership of letting Pakistan and North Korea into this club?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Well I mean not not into the club but allowing them to get nuclear weapons which is right. The Israelis have had a different idea and this goes back uh uh uh to the original attack on Iraq and Osarok. Uh they I call it affirmative non-prololiferation. So they say we're not allowing nuclear weapons in our neighborhood. And they've uh destroyed the nuclear weapon project in Iraq. They destroyed the nuclear weapon activity in Syria when the North Koreans were building a plant there half dozen years ago. And now they've been the leaders in the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program which we've participated in. I however I'm uncomfortable about the wars even in Iran. I have to cheer for this because I fear additional nuclear weapon states and I wish that we had managed somehow.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Let's take the North Korean case. I've even said this to Chinese uh officials. I said, you know, we and you made a terrible mistake. Maybe we made a bigger mistake to let North Korea get nuclear weapons. But what we should have said to you is, hey, we have an idea. Nuclear weapons are either good for North Korea and South Korea, or they're good for neither of them.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Your choice. And uh that would have been hard ball. But I I think uh uh the idea of having Kim Jong-un have now more than 100 nuclear warheads and missiles that can reach the American homeland is crazy. I mean, here we're talking about Iran and what it might be. Excuse me. it takes uh 20 minutes longer from Korea to get to Boston than from Iran or maybe 25 minutes. So I I think that uh that's a useful perspective to remind us that we let this thing happen. It's a ticking bomb as far as I'm concerned. If you ask me what to do about it, I makes me, you know, cry because Trump in the first administration focused on this problem very very seriously and did everything that he thought he could and I thought it was a good a good effort even though it was not successful.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: But the 20 other ways we've tried to deal with that problem were equally unsuccessful.

主持人: How does China feel about nuclear proliferation and North Korea having these bombs?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Well, I think they feel a little ashamed at least uh about what happened in North Korea and kind of think, well, that wasn't really our problem. But now uh when you say, well, if this keeps if things on the current path, well, maybe South Korea or Japan will have nuclear arsenals in their backyard, they think that's terrible idea, and we would be not very enthusiastic about a Venezuelan or Canadian nuclear bomb. Yeah.

主持人: So, Dr. Alison, just to kind of wrap our tour of the world here, come back to the United States. Since we last spoke, there have been a number of mayors elected in this country that are self-declared socialists or democratic socialists of America, PSA. And there's a rising populist movement in the United States that seems to be manifesting in many cases candidates that look and act like true deep socialists and want to enact socialist policies. What is the risk to the United States if this continues to go the way it's going? And what is the risk to the United States, do you think, in 2028 if we have a Democratcontrolled House and Senate and a very populist Democrat candidate that looks like a DSA member? Where does this take us?

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Well, again, good for you all for thinking of uncomfortable radical questions, but real. Uh, so if you look at the numbers, I I I've been looking at them lately. They're hard to believe in terms of the split between wealthy and poor or uh rich and poor. If you look at the who's benefited for the last generation in terms of the uh 0.01% the 1% the 10% the 20%. Well, that's us and all the people that we know virtually. And therefore when we say the market is you know third year in a in a in a bull market and my goodness here it's up 15 or 16% or this 80 or 70% of people this is not part of their lives.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: And when I look at the numbers about both what I think the facts are and then even more people's perception uh uh it's just not stable in a democracy if everybody gets a vote. And if uh uh the top 10 or 20% are taking 80% or 70% of the pie, that's not stable and sustainable, I think. And it's a political invitation for a populist and demographic demog, that's not reasonable. Uh, so I think that it's not I mean this is beyond my I mean I I can hardly deal with the problems I I focus on. This one is one that I look over my shoulder and think gee wait a minute this first this can't be true but then whenever I've been looking into the numbers lately they look as bad as they appear and then this is extremely dangerous and I would say yes.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: And so I haven't heard people talking about plausible ways in which uh you know this could be addressed and I but I think it's a it's a it's an invitation you know for some more radical ideas and uh so while I like very much the Trump uh accounts for kids to give them some stake I think that's a that's a fantastic thing. I I I could probably be persuaded that people even at my level of income should pay another 10% of taxes or whatever for uh for some more adjustment. I think the kind of adjustments that are basically putting people on the dole uh or uh support for nonproductive or semi-productive activity makes me very uncomfortable. Uh I mean unless they're lame or you know ill or or

主持人: referring to UBI proposals uh people getting a universal basic income that that takes motivation

格雷厄姆·艾利森: makes me less I like incentive. I mean, I think the the stuff of America has been the opportunity for people to to be incentivized to invent, create, and create wealth that's benefits for everybody. But if the if the jam is not getting spread to 70% of the people, that not a sustainable political situation. And and I think I mean I thought in the in the New York campaign we got to see some preview of a bit of this and in the primaries you're seeing people going into this space. I haven't seen anybody with a with a coherent program yet. But I think for serious people thinking about what's good for the country that's a it's a good one to worry about.

主持人: Does seem free that there's there's a couple proposals here. minimum wage, maybe some type of a wealth tax. There are things that people are talking about. We may not all agree with them, and they may be hard to execute, but one of them is for the people at the top. I think you would agree, Professor Allison, the people at the top have the most to lose here, and they should be thinking about it. And maybe there's generosity and, you know, maybe giving away wealth in a more thoughtful way because there's so much wealth in this top 1% 10% that they can't possibly spend. And so this might be something that that group of people should be thinking a little bit more about.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: In the State of the Union, Trump called out, you know, Dell and a couple of other people for having stepped up and say, "Okay, I'm, you know, I'm all in on this." I would say there something quite or that certainly it got my attention and made me think maybe I should be doing something different. Yeah.

主持人: Yeah. Right. Well, Professor Allison, you know, they they say that you can measure a man's knowledge and thoughtfulness by his humility. I will say you have extraordinary depth and you've thought so deeply about so many of these issues that this world is facing right now and yet you act with such humility and grace when you speak about them. I want to thank you for that. I want to thank you for taking the time to be with us today. Really appreciate it and look forward to doing it again in person soon.

主持人: Yeah. Thank you so much on behalf of the audience and just on a personal basis. This is such a delight and privilege to be able to do with this with you every year or two. And man, I hope we can just do it every year because it's the highlight of my year when we get to talk.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Excuse me. It's an honor for me. Thank you so much. And thank you for what y'all are doing and thanks for thinking of such hard questions. I'll take me home tonight to think about socialism. Yes.

主持人: Yeah.

格雷厄姆·艾利森: Okay. Thank you, sir.

主持人: Thank you.

主持人: I'm going all in.