Welcome back to another episode of the market close. We will have technical Tuesday today in about 30 minutes, 4:15ish, 4:20ish, Jason will be on. So, we will have a full-on session of Technical Tuesday. It's been about a couple weeks since we've had it and that's because we've had big tech earnings. So, now that all those earnings are done, very excited to go through a lot of these numbers. What is happening in the market today? We got a lot of different headlines. It's actually quite interesting. S&P 500 is green, meaning the broader market is green. What's red? Well, pretty much all the data center plays. I mean, data center plays absolutely getting wrecked today as you can see right here on the screen. Hive down two, Wolf down 14, CleanSpark down six, Ian down five, Cipher down six, Nebius down nine about to go below 100. Galaxy right there down three. Core getting hit the worst down 15% and then Apply Digital down 8%.

Couple reasons why I think the data center plays are getting hit today. Number one, and we've been talking about this over the past couple days, there is a little bit more concern around the debt load that these companies are taking on. And Core yesterday on the earnings call for those that listen, they really made it very clear that they're going to be financing a lot of more activities through debt. Oracle, one of the larger cloud computing players that is also down 2% of the day, likely because of what we've got in regards to corporate debt becoming more of an issue.

Having said that, I don't think it's just the debt profile of a lot of these companies that do indeed have debt and will engage in dilution. Again, a lot of that dilution could be accretive if that dilution is going to be good enough to be able to generate an ROI given that they're expanding data center capacity. One of the things that Nebia said today was that they sold as much capacity as they possibly had. The meta $3 billion deal quite frankly based on what Nebby said would have been a lot larger. It's just they didn't have more capacity to give out to the hyperscalers. That shows me that demand is not a problem.

And based on what Lisa Sue said, which we'll look at in a second, she had her AMD investor. That was a very big deal in terms of the numbers she put out there. I think it's not just that much about debt. I think it's also about this trade is just getting crowded and people got kind of tired of it. And quite frankly, as someone who wants to actually establish a real position in Nebius, I like it. I think it's healthy for a lot of these plays to just take a breather, especially if there's not a fundamental reason why I think these plays are getting hit. Now, Cororee, you could speak to some of the fundamentals around their debt load. Neb, I'm sure there's some red flags that people could find out in the earnings. Overall, I didn't see too many.

You might be seeing a little bit of a broadening out trade in the broader market given the S&P 500 is green, but a lot of the tech names are red. which I thought was pretty fascinating. S&P was red most of the day and it kind of just flipped green about 20 minutes ago. But Nvidia is down 3%. I mean Nebius and Cipher and Wolf are not going up on a day when Nvidia is down 3%. Uh same when AMD is down 2.5% and we'll talk about AMD in a second.

This is a flight to safety. It might be a flight to safety. You got pounder down, Tesla down, Nvidia down, hood down. Now they're not all down some dramatic amount. seven, eight percent, they're down one to three percent. The data center players are the ones that are getting hit most. And I think that's where you might be seeing a little bit of a flight to safety of people just saying, you know what, I have enough profits in this stock or in these basket of stocks and therefore I don't need to continue doubling down on these names.

Maybe the Nvidia headline is spooking people. The idea that Soft Banks sold some of their stake. We talked about that in the morning. What did Soft Bank say they're going to do with their $6 billion of Nvidia? They're going to give it to OpenAI, which is going to buy more Nvidia chips, which is going to have to use more hyperscalers to get more NeoClouds deals to be able to prop up the entire data center ecosystem. So, it's not really net bearish. I just think the trade got a little fatigue today and as a result, you're seeing a flushing out, which I think is actually pretty damn healthy.

Having said that, the net bullish sentiment should be long on a lot of the stuff because here's what Lisa Sue said today at her investor day. > Now, as exciting as the data center AI, you know, revenue opportunity is for us, um the other message that we want to leave you with today is every other part of our business is firing on all cylinders. And um that's actually a very nice place to be. Um some of the other, you know, key targets that we're going to talk about today are um areas where we think we have the ability to grow significantly ahead of the market um dynamics. So um on the server side, Dan McNamera is going to show you uh sitting currently at approximately 40% share, we have a clear path to over 50% uh revenue share of the server market over a larger TAM um over the next uh 3 to 5 years. Um Jack will talk about our client uh revenue market share. We're sitting, let's call it, in the high 20s right now. um again a clear path to over 40% client revenue market share um in this three to five year time frame and then cel will talk about uh the 70% adaptive revenue market share is the last thing that she's talking about.

Basically Sue said demand for AI computing infrastructure remains extremely high customers are not reducing their investments in AI AMD is projecting annual revenue growth of 35% over the next three to five years again one of the biggest knocks on them in Q2 was that they, you know, were growing at 22 23%, data centers at 14%. So they pretty much up the ante on the expectations, which is pretty much what every analyst wanted to hear and they're forecasting data center growth exceeding 80% ker. So again, when you see stuff like this and there was a lot of other tidbits that Lisa Sue had to say, but they did not disappoint in terms of the level of excitement that they brought to the overall uh data center thesis as more and more demand for AI comput infrastructure continues to remain high.

Now the stock being down today again I think that is a function of Nvidia being down the broader market kind of consolidating a little bit. One thing to also remember is uh today's Veterans Day, right? So you have the credit markets that are uh closed which means across the board you've been seeing low volume. You could have a lot of different hedge fund managers uh going back and forth in terms of names they're getting in and out of due to the lack of volatility and due to the lack of volume today. So tomorrow potentially is a different story.

This is your rotation. Take a look at this. So consumer defensives like a Walmart are green. Healthcare like a Eli Liy all-time highs today. J&J Abby that's up. And then you got tech and semiconductors that are down. So yesterday this was kind of the opposite. Walmart was down, Lily was down, and you know, Nvidia was literally going to the moon. And today kind of had a reversal, which means all the data center plays, crypto plays that are attached to a lot of the big tech names associated in that space. They're also going to take some of those companies to go down as well.

One of the core arguments I said for why uh the Supreme Court would not overturn the Trump tariffs is because they would be practical and say, "Hey, if we did this, all this money would have to be reversed. Like that's probably not something we want to cause. We have to think about ultimately uh the practicality of us making this decision." Today, American importers said that if the Supreme Court rules that the money they have paid for President Trump's tariffs must be repaid, it would be simple to do so. They said importers pointed to paperwork that clearly details the tariffs they pay on goods brought into the US and it would be very easy to refund the money. So, every time you think maybe the Supreme Court would go in the opposite direction. Now, even the people having to pay back the money, they're saying to be honest, it wouldn't be that hard. It would be pretty easy, which is not good for Trump. And then you have CNBC reporting that during oral arguments last Wednesday for a case that will decide the fate of Trump's tariffs, most Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism that the duties were legal.

House members look right now they are making their way back to DC for the first time in more than 50 days to vote tomorrow afternoon to reopen the government. We're expecting that around 4 p.m. Might be a little later. And look, if there's any sign that this will not pass, we haven't seen it yet. It seems full speed ahead. Granted, Republicans, they can only afford to lose two members, but that's what they lost last time. And remember, they actually had one Democrat join them. And Trump has already congratulated Republicans on reopening the government. So again, lots of momentum there in this getting done tomorrow, which means we're now looking ahead. The Senate is now trying to see if there is any path on extending those Affordable Care Act tax credits. But Republicans are eyeing bigger changes to Obama's signature healthc care law. Okay, so it looks like the House is going to take a vote tomorrow. That vote is going to be really important. The Republicans really don't have any votes to lose, so they've got to be able to get as many votes as they can. And if that's the case, then maybe the government reopens by the end of the week. That could obviously be a tailwind for the broader macro. Maybe that's also why the S&P is getting a little bit of a pump right here.

Pretty much all the momentum names, high beta momentum. If you've been running up over the past couple of months, you are getting hit today. I think that's okay. I think that's also really healthy with the S&P green, but a lot of those momentum names down. Um, and a lot of that's probably creating a lot more consolidation for the market to be able to figure out what names deserve that capital.

Oklo earnings are out. What do we got for Oakllo? Um stock is up a little bit after hours. You see that green candle? uh no revenue and they lost 20 cents a share instead of 13 cents a share. They missed by 54% on EPS. They missed by 54% on EPS and no revenue. Stock's green. You got a stock that's green, baby. I think there's a bright future for nuclear energy in this country and I think there is a lot of need for nuclear energy via AI. I just, you know, do you give a company this much market cap for not really executing on any of it yet? That's the broader question.

I want to talk a little bit more about this AI debt trade that's creating some fear. And quite frankly, this could also be why a lot of the data center plays took a little bit of a hit. > AI is still the market's trade, but cracks are starting to show. You mentioned some of them. Stock bank cashing out on Nvidia raises fresh valuation questions. Bur's warning is aimed at the mega caps that are carrying the broader markets. And the move to borrowing is turning AI from a growth story into a leverage story. That's what makes this moment different. The easier initial gains from the hype and the multiple expansion that may now be behind us as investors, they're weighing the cost of keeping the boom alive. Now, this chart you see, it's Meta versus Alphabet over the last few months, and it really sums up a shift in the AI trade. The market is rewarding players like Google that are selling basic AI services. Meta on the other hand where spending is outpacing revenue gains that's being punished for promises without payoff. Another way of putting it is tools and services versus a vision and the market right now wants to see results. Scott debt meanwhile that is certainly reshaping what powers the AI trade and it's adding more risk. The buildout it's no longer being fueled by venture capital or profits. It's loans bonds. private credit and that gives bears like Michael Bur more ammunition.

So, that debt argument again, I'm just hearing a lot and lot more of people talking about this. The reason people are freaking out about it, is because in in the dotcom bubble that was one of the core ways that um the telecommunication companies financed a lot of their buildout of the internet which was through debt and obviously that didn't end up working out. A lot of those companies went bankrupt and that created the idea of a bubble. The reason a lot of people think that AI is going to have a fundamentally different trajectory here is because there is a lot more promising technology in the context of how they generate that ROI. But to get there, you obviously need money. And over the past couple years, it was free cash flow. Now it ends up being debt. The question is just how much debt becomes unsustainable. And I was reading one article today saying it's going to be a trillion dollars in the next couple years. And that to me sounds aggressive.

Again, the broader concerns around debt I think are warranted. I mean even Nebius is announcing more dilution and they have this at the money offering. Iran has dilute. All these companies have dilution. The question becomes as an investor. Are you okay with the dilution in order to allow them to grow? And when you hear things from Anbius that says we only were able to get a $3 billion deal with Meta because we literally don't have enough capacity otherwise Meta would have paid us a lot more money. When you hear things from Ire saying we are only licensing 12% of our all of our overall available facilities and we have so much more room to grow and the demand is there to be able to get those deals to build out those data centers. It becomes a lot more encouraging that the debt they're taking on is not for a faulty reason. It's for something real. It's just how much is the market going to be able to put up with it is the broader question.

AMD is moving after hours. Is it? AMD is up 4%. You are correct. Why is it moving after hours? That is a good question. Are we just getting a delayed reaction after investor day? I think this might be the headline. AMDC's gross margin ranging between 55 to 58%. That might not have been disclosed a couple hours ago. I thought it was, but maybe it wasn't. Projected annual revenue growth at 35%. Data center revenue to grow 60% with a hundred billion annual run rate in 5 years. Lisa Seuss's total data center market will hit 1 trillion by 2030. Demand is insatiable. I think it's the gross margin. A lot of these other headlines are old.

From a macro perspective. Um, so here's what Fanny May is thinking of. They're thinking of dropping their credit requirements on getting a mortgage. Fanny May is set to drop its 620 credit score minimum. The mortgage giant will instead use its own analysis of risk factors. Officials say they're easing barriers to borrowing. These are from homes.com. It's just the latest in a series of policy changes aimed at creating home ownership opportunities in the United States.

So, there's two things that are going on right now that have a lot of people tweeting Michael Bur memes from the big short. Uh, and you've got people just thinking, goodness, like, is this really happening? Number one is this whole fifth year mortgage. And then number two is the idea of dropping credit requirements in order to qualify for a mortgage, which the last time we did that at a scale where, you know, things got a bit out of hand was in 2008. That didn't work out too well. Here was Trump yesterday speaking about the fifth year mortgage as well. > It's not even a big deal. I mean, you know, you go from 40 to 50 years and what it means is you pay you pay something less from 30 that some people had a 40 and then that now they have a 50. All it means is you pay less per month. You pay it over a longer period of time. It's not like a big factor. It might help a little bit, but the problem was that Biden did this. He increased the interest rates.

Now, UBS did some analysis on it today, and they said on a average $420,000 home, the lower monthly payments on your fifth year mortgage versus 30-year mortgage would be about $119. So, you'd save about 23 grand on the monthly payments. But by stretching the loan from 30 to 50 years, it would roughly double the total interest that you pay and obviously slow down the rate of time for homeowners to build equity.

**Jason:** We made it back, baby. It's been a long time, man. It's been a long two weeks, but it's good because now we had all the earnings finished, so we can actually we well we've had all we've had we've had all the mega cap except for you know the beloved Nvida Nvidia still to come. Feel like the market's almost like you know waiting for that to to hit still. It was looking ugly Friday afternoon and then all of a sudden, you know, just on the idea that maybe just maybe the government would open back up and then boom reverse right back to the highs on Friday and then here we are just kind of trying to to let the dust settle and see how how you know if it can actually sustain.

**Jason:** The trend is still up. We had a little brief love tap, which, you know, was it probably felt rough in the midst of it, but here we are kind of back towards the highs and right back to last week's level. As long as we can actually hold within this kind of range, if we can kind of come in, chop around like that, that's going to be good at least to 690, that's going to be that that's all-time highs really. Tomorrow is going to be an important day. Today not so important because the bond market is closed and we don't have the full participants in the market today.

**Amit:** Do you like that we ended green even though Nvidia was red? You think that was productive? The S&P?

**Jason:** I think that's exactly the broadening that I'm talking about. So, the the broadening of the of the market as a whole is uh is important is an important note. So, even if the mega caps don't go up, what's what's happening under the hood to tell you that this is in fact not a bare market is that other components are catching a bit. other components are being lifted and helping out uh lift the broader trend. We're seeing money flood to growth, but in other sectors of the of growth and just other sectors, right? In a bare market, money just floods to cash and you see the dollar ripping face, right? That's not what we're seeing. You look under the hood here and we're seeing um we're seeing the market broaden. And that's what we started this whole segment with. And and this is bullish net, right?

**Jason:** On Palantir, what happened is that this came back down and retest the same area it just broke out of. Right? So this area here was what was acting as support where buyers were were showing up right here in that 170 area. Six is a lot. What I'd like to see is this hold um higher up here. So, this area that was prior resistance, what we're going to be looking for is called a it's called an SR flip or where resistance becomes support. And that's more towards this 180 kind of three level. We see one test here 185 and we see some buying action come in literally today and if this area holds I can see price chopping like this but I want to see that kind of price action where where buyers step in right around this 185 type level. Best case scenario, what this chart is telling me is it's actually telling me chop. So, I would like to see this turn into consolidation.

**Jason:** On Core Weave, personally, I do invoke the 3-day rule post earnings. I think we get to test this double bottom, which it looks like we're coming into right now. A price of interest is at basically the psychological level of $100. The number is, what is the number here? Let's get it. $85.26. I think on the third one, it probably breaches just slightly. I would really wait for buyers to show up um before stepping into this one because the momentum here is from that 135 breakdown. the momentum has been building to the downside and you want to see some kind of sideways action which would be would would would mean that the shorts are covering and we're not seeing that first.

**Jason:** On Meta, three weeks ago, you asked me what what price I would buy Meta at. I think you said 630 or below. Yeah, we're like right there. A 50% pullback from here to here happens to be 633.90. If we cannot get back above 634 we have a 65% probability of actually getting here. So those are the statistics. That's the math right now. I've been nibbling because it's one of those stocks where I don't want to be overly precise. I think sideways price action for a month even is actually going to be pretty healthy to let some people create a new investor base on Meta.

**Jason:** On AMD, it was a very shaky ground in intraday. This looked like it was going to be a sell the news event. Retesting this 227 is a prior all-time high. That's constructive. As long as it can hold sustainably over that. That's that's going to be your support line. You're going to want to see this create a new cup and handle. You're going to need this to breach that 267. Then you're going to expect a pullback. You're going to need to buy that dip if that happens. And that dip is going to be around 255. And that's going to take you to the goddamn promised land of 300.

**Jason:** On Nvidia, what we said three weeks ago was that you want to be long Nvidia before the Mag 7 reports. That's the deal. And that's then and this right here is what happened. We got a again another disappointing dip all the way back into 178, which by the way, we also called this. I would expect to see some kind of consolidation sideways. This is going to be sideways movement. And then eventually a couple days before earnings, this start to get its butt in gear one more time. Which means that 195 is going to be your clear breakout zone and 195 will definitively bring you every time to 200. And then if you get up and through 200, that's quickly going to take you to 210. And then your breach, your breakout is going to look like something like this. This is going to take you into 225s, maybe 230. This is going to be your Santa Claus rally.

**SoFi (SOFI):** No change on SoFi and this is still intact fully intact. As long as 30 just under 30, 29.50 ends up acting as support where it was resistance in the past. The targets have always been and remain 35. No, that's that's definitely possible. **Ethereum (ETH):** This 35ish level is important. It's possible that we get another dip. And that dip is likely going to come in in the flavor of a flash crash. 50% of this extreme low to extreme high is 31.82. I have this little sliver right here just around 2,800 as actually a really good spot to actually get long. **BMR:** The equivalent of a $2,800 dip on on ETH is about 33 on BMR. I'm not selling BMR, but I I am prepared to buy it lower. **Tesla (TSLA):** Constructive consolidation but concerning at the same time. 415 was the level. It still is the level. A pullback to 390 is still fine, right, for this trajectory to fives and ultimately sixes. **Rocket Lab (RKLB):** There's a setup. It certain times in the market there are certain setups that start to show up. Right now, this one of the setups is like a breakout like this and an extremely disappointing pullback that ends up shaking out a lot of people. Which which also ends up being a massive dip by. 50 bucks is a solid hold. 65 is I think where it would be. **Amazon (AMZN):** Whenever you have a power earnings gap, there's always a setup. 50% of that move is boom, smack dab at 239. Right now, what's happening is that you're going to get another shot to break this high. That high is 255. That should take you to at least 262 and a quarter. And then your boom into 275, which by the way has always been the target on Amazon. **Rivian (RIVN):** 12.85 is and has been support for forever. We're just in active breakout mode is what we are. Um, and so if we can get through 18.60, um, well, in that case, then it should be a straight shot to 23. **Oracle (ORCL):** Oracle, I don't like, dude. Oh, and then some. It's not that they lost their entire pump. They lost their entire pump and continued. I have no interest in buying this dip. I don't see any investor sentiment showing up here. **DraftKings (DKNG):** I like DraftKings. I like it from a technical perspective. Below 32, it was 25.38, which is like literally exactly where we got. So from from here, what what you expect is you expect a little bit of a chop. And if DraftKings can get back over 32, it's on the men definitively. And and when it's back over 32, you should expect 36s.