重建对比

After World War II, our occupations of Japan and Germany were very successful in rooting out the toxic ideologies and completely transforming the society and culture. Whereas, you know, Afghanistan and Iraq, we didn't have the same effect. What explains why those occupations were so much more successful? One is a case of rebuilding institutions, and the other one is building them from scratch. You can rebuild things rapidly. And if you think of after the war, how things were bombed out, and when Western Europe, and quite rapidly, they repaired buildings and things. So both Germany and Japan had an extensive list of functioning institutions, from local police officers' offices to educational systems to governments, local, provincial, etc., governments, and running the train systems and businesses, and all of this had been absolutely functional. And so finding the expertise to create that is easy. And of course, Germans and Japanese were living there, so they are very interested in rebuilding.

日本宪法制定

Then, the key thing the United States then did for, I know more about Japan than Germany, is, um, the Japanese were hemming and hawing over their constitution. What their constitution was going to be like. And so MacArthur finally got fed up. And in one week, he got his staff to write this Constitution. And they're running around Tokyo, going to bombed-out libraries or whatever, trying to find examples of Western constitutions so they can pull it all together. As long before there's an internet where you can figure these things out. And they're figuring out what the Constitution is going to be. And so he just, they cook it up over the week. And what the Japanese think, the ones we're dealing with, they think, well, you know, the Americans are going to leave, and so we'll go along with this constitution. But once the Americans are out, we're going to do whatever. And Prime Minister Yoshida he was the first postwar prime minister. He said, well, we thought we could change it back. But he realized, because of the vote, universal suffrage (英文/中文全称: 普选权，指允许所有成年公民投票的权利) allowing women to vote, and there had been a certain amount of land reform (英文/中文全称: 土地改革，指对土地所有权进行的重新分配或调整), he said there was no going back. It permanently changed the balance of power in Japan.

战败原因与传承

Another feature is the Imperial Japanese Army (英文/中文全称: 日本帝国陆军) had so disgraced itself. Their strategy had led to the firebombing (英文/中文全称: 纵火轰炸，一种大规模使用燃烧弹的空袭方式) of the home islands. Talk about a total fail. So, and in Germany, um, the same sort of thing. You have universal elections and things. And it took a while to get the Western zones united because of all the fighting with the Russians over their zone. You eventually get two Germany's, etc. But then you have a very competent postwar generation, both in Japan and Germany, who understood all the horrors of the war that they've been put through as conscripts. And they are really intent on rebuilding their societies. And they're the miracle generations (核心结论: 指战后日本和德国在重建过程中涌现出的具有高度责任感和能力的群体) in both countries. There's no parallel for that in Afghanistan and Iraq.

发展与认同

Right? They've never had, they've never been developed countries. Germany and Japan were developed countries. So, and then you think, well, how long does it take to become a developed country? Well, some people say centuries. Right? And then there's a whole other piece, which is the Germans and Japanese had a real sense of nation, right, nationalism. So you don't have to worry about nation-building because they have a sense of national identity. You do worry about State Building (英文/中文全称: 国家建设，指建立和巩固国家政治、法律和社会制度的过程).

内部冲突与建设

Well, in Afghanistan and Iraq, there's no sense of a Nation. They have these, I'm no expert on these parts of the world, but my understanding is you have these very different ethnic groups, many who want to kill each other, right? You just got a civil war (英文/中文全称: 内战，指国家内部不同群体之间发生的武装冲突) going on there, talking about a death ground kind of Civil War (英文/中文全称: 决定生死存亡的内战) where one's in power and just ruins the other. The other gets in power, they ruin the other people. And that's what's going on in Afghanistan and Iraq.

地理与干预

In addition, because they're internal locations, right? They're in the middle of continents and they're surrounded by a variety of neighbors. And if you look at those neighbors, you go, oh, a bunch of those people are going to intervene. And they're going to intervene in very destabilizing ways. Um, very difficult. In Japan, it's an island, it's hard for people to intervene. Uh, Germany, we put a lot of money into it, with having troops and getting the German Army and other things up and running.

乌克兰展望

And this will be Ukraine's future, where they will, uh, be have, well, they already apparently do have the finest Army in Europe, and then they're going to make it highly defensible before it's all over. And Europeans, as a group, understand that it is absolutely in their interest to have an impregnable border (英文/中文全称: 坚不可摧的边境) around Ukraine. It protects them all. And Europe doesn't threaten Russia. They would love it if Russia would join the party, join the rules-based order. You'll make money, you'll do well. Except, uh, the oligarchs (英文/中文全称: 寡头，指掌握国家经济或政治权力的少数富人) in question, this real minority of people who run Russia and Putin, they personally won't do as well. Well, now they're war criminals (英文/中文全称: 战争罪犯，指在战争期间犯下严重罪行的人), so they're out of luck.