英伟达2025年Q3财报深度解析:业绩与指引双超预期,AI需求持续加速 Amit Kukreja 2025-11-19

财报发布前的期待与预测

Amit: 好的,大家好。欢迎回到新一期的《收盘观察》。今天是非常特别的一期,因为我们要迎来英伟达的财报,我们所有人都在这里:Tanner、Neil、Jose 和我。非常高兴能来到这里,感谢大家花时间与我们共度。我们有很多要谈论的内容。大约20分钟后,我们将得到2025财年第三季度的财报。这将是英伟达有史以来最重要的财报。我们每个季度都这么说,但我保证,这次我们是认真的。

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Amit: All right, hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. This is a very special edition of the market close because we got Nvidia earnings and all of us are here. Tanner, Neil, Jose, myself. Very excited to be here. Thank you all for spending your time with us. We've got a lot to talk about. In about 20 minutes, we're going to get Q3 2025 earnings. These are going to be the most important Nvidia earnings ever. We say that every quarter, but this time, I promise we mean it.

Neil: 我们真的需要这份财报。

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Neil: We really need these.

Jose: 直到下个季度之前都是如此。

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Jose: Until next quarter.

Amit: 直到下个季度。所以,我们有很多要谈的。Tanner,你怎么样?

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Amit: Until next quarter. So, we got a lot to talk about. Uh Tanner, how you doing?

Tanner: 好极了,伙计。对这个季度感到非常兴奋。我认为黄仁勋(Jensen)能够成功,整个市场可以依赖他来保持这趟列车继续前进。所以,是的,我的意思是,感觉总是取决于英伟达,事实也的确如此,但我再次认为我们会没事的。

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Tanner: Doing awesome, man. Um really excited about this quarter. Uh I think Jensen will be able to pull it off and that the whole market can rely on him to keep this train going. So, um, yeah, I mean, it always feels like it comes down to Nvidia, and it does, but once again, I think we'll we'll be fine.

Amit: 好的,Jose,你持有英伟达已经很长时间了。进入财报季,你感觉如何?

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Amit: Okay, Jose, uh, you've been holding Nvidia for a pretty long time. How are you feeling going into this?

Jose: 非常好。我的意思是,我期待一个漂亮的业绩超预期和一份不错的指引。总的来说,市场如何反应是另一回事,但我认为,作为一名英伟达的投资者,最终我会为这家公司的长期机遇感到高兴。

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Jose: Um, pretty good. I mean, I expect a nice beat and a nice guidance. Overall, how the market reacts is a whole different story, but I think at the end of the day, as an Nvidia investor, I'm going to be happy for the long-term opportunity of this company.

Amit: 好的。Neil,我知道你更偏向于投资AMD而不是英伟达,但你对英伟达这次的表现感觉如何?

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Amit: All right. And Neil, I know you're a little bit heavier into AMD versus Nvidia, but how are you feeling for Nvidia here?

Neil: 对英伟达,我感觉相当不错。我和 Jose 的看法一致,我认为这会是一次轻松的业绩超预期。指引也会很好。我认为关键在于黄仁勋对整个行业的评论,这才是市场更期待的,或许是需求的加速,与其他公司、更多企业的对话,也许已经有一些关于他们看到投资回报的迹象。我认为那会很棒。但是,是的,我认为他们会超预期,他们会轻松超过那些数字。

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Neil: I mean, for Nvidia, I feel pretty good. I think I'm with Jose with this, I think it's an easy I would say a beat. Guidance would be fine as well. I think it's all about the comments of Jensen and on the whole industry and that's what the market is looking for more maybe accelerated demand, more conversations with other companies, extra enterprises, maybe already some signs of oh they're seeing a return on investment. I think that would be great. Um but yeah I think it's a beat. I think they'll easily beat the number.

Amit: 好的。是的,看,我非常兴奋。今年早些时候,在 DeepSeek 之后我开始投资英伟达。你们三位是我开始更认真对待它的部分原因。现在我持有一个完整的仓位,自从我建仓以来已经上涨了大约50%,我很期待看到黄仁勋能上演一场怎样的秀。在我的聊天室里,TripleV,感谢你来到这里。感谢你200美元的超级留言。他今天给我发短信说,他今天早上以185美元的价格又买了10万股英伟达的股票。

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Amit: Okay, yeah, look, I'm very excited. I got into Nvidia earlier this year after DeepSeek. You three were part of the reason for why I started taking it much more seriously. And now I have a full position that is up about 50% since I entered and I'm excited to see what show Jensen can put on. Uh in my chat, TripleV, thank you for being here. Thank you for the $200 super chat. He did text me today that he bought another 100,000 shares of Nvidia this morning uh at 185.

Jose: 真正的传奇。他今天通过这次10万股的购买,正式完成了持有100万股的目标,所以他对英伟达非常看好。

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Jose: True legend. He completed a million shares today officially with this 100,000 share purchase and so he's pretty bullish on Nvidia.

Amit: 好的,我们开始吧。Tanner,我先问你。市场普遍预期EPS(Earnings Per Share: 每股收益)约为1.25美元,营收为560亿美元,第四季度的预估或指引为610亿美元。简单的问题,你认为英伟达能超过这些数字吗?

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Amit: Um, all right. So, let's get started. Tanner, I'll head it to you. The street is expecting about a $1.25 of EPS and 56 billion of revenue, 61 billion on the whisper or on the guide for Q4. I guess simple question. Do you think Nvidia is going to be able to beat these numbers?

Tanner: 简单的回答,是的。问题只是超出的幅度有多大。业绩超预期的幅度一直在收窄,我们已经习惯了营收方面大约2%的惊喜。所以,我想知道我们是否会保持在这个范围内。这个季度我没有做太多深入的研究,来形成自己对本季度情况的看法。我更期待黄仁勋的评论,而不仅仅是第三季度的数字。我还有一个问题想问 Neil 和 Jose。你们认为数据中心收入在本季度的同比增长会重新加速吗?

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Tanner: Uh, simple answer, yes. It's just a matter of how much. The beats have been tightening and we've sort of, you know, gotten around the 2% surprise on topline. So, I wonder if we're going to stay within that range. Um I haven't done too much deep diving this quarter into really taking my own stance on what I think is going to happen this quarter. I'm more looking forward to the commentary by Jensen rather than just Q3 numbers. I also have a question for Neil and Jose. If you guys think that data center revenue is going to reaccelerate this quarter, year-over-year.

Jose: 我想我们刚才正在看这个,对吧,Neil?今年的收入增长预期是55%,然后接下来的两个季度,基于市场的预期,年同比增长率仍然预计是55%。我相信我们在某些方面会做得更好一些。所以我认为,至少在接下来的两个季度里,我们将继续看到55%的年同比增长,这主要是因为我们现在看到的 Blackwell 的疯狂需求。然后是我们在 GTC 大会上从黄仁勋那里听到的那个疯狂的五千亿美元的数字。所以我很确定这会是财报电话会议上被多次问到的问题。但是,对于明年推出的 Reuben 以及现在刚刚推出的 Black Wall Ultra 的需求,我认为肯定会推动一些巨大的增长。而且我们看到,本季度所有超大规模云服务商的capex(Capital Expenditure: 资本支出,指公司用于购买、维护或升级固定资产的资金)都大幅增长。所以,整体增长率仍将保持在55%左右。我还没看具体的数据中心数据,Tanner。

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Jose: Well, I think we were just looking at this, right, Neil? I mean revenue growth for this, I don't know the data center itself but the revenue was 55% expected to be up this year and then next the next two quarters it was still expected to be 55% on the year-over-year growth based on what the market was expecting and I do believe we're going to get a little bit better in some of those. Uh, so I mean I think we're still going to continue to see that 55% year-over-year growth for at least the next two quarters at minimum, especially due to the crazy demand that we see with Blackwell right now. And then the crazy half a trillion dollar number we got from Jensen during the GTC DZ. Um so I'm pretty sure that's going to be a question that's going to be asked a lot during the earnings call. Um but just the demand for Reuben and and when it comes out next year and right now for the Black Wall Ultra which just came out I think is going to definitely push some massive growth and we saw capex right overall capex grew dramatically from from all the hyperscalers this this quarter. So um growth still going to be in the 55 percentage overall. I haven't looked at the actual data center. Uh Tanner.

Tanner: 是的。上个季度的年同比增长是56%,两个季度前是73%。你刚才提到了一个数字,预期是59%?所以是预期会重新加速。

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Tanner: Yeah. So last quarter was 56% year-over-year growth. Two quarters ago 73. I mean, you pulled up something right now. How much was the expected 59? So, expecting a reacceleration.

Neil: 是的,但你认为这会发生吗?我们最终会达到什么水平?你认为我们能突破500亿美元大关吗?我的意思是,考虑到我们从分析师那里听到的所有积极评论,特别是关于 Blackwell 的,如果他们似乎已经解决了之前的供应问题,我不会感到惊讶。也许我们这个季度还看不到,但下个季度肯定会。我们能仅在数据中心业务上就达到500亿美元吗?我认为这是可能的,这将比预期高出10亿美元。

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Neil: Yeah. But but do you do you also think that's going to happen? And really just uh you know, where do we actually end out at? Do you think that we can break that $50 billion mark? I mean, with all the positive comments that we got, especially from analysts and well, for Blackwell specifically, wouldn't surprise me cuz it seems like they are past the supply issue that they had previously. Maybe we might not be seeing this already this quarter, but then definitely the next quarter. Could we get 50 billion in just data centers? I mean it's possible would be with an extra billion to the estimates.

Jose: 是的。而且很棒的一点是,所有这些甚至还不包括任何被英伟达目前禁止的国际市场。所以,如果我们听到任何关于是否能最终开始向沙特或中国发货的更新,任何一点点更新,都可能推动本季度达到500亿美元。但到下个季度,预期是620亿美元。我实际上预计,由于市场的兴奋情绪,实际数字会接近640到650亿美元。这肯定将主要由数据中心领域引领。

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Jose: Yeah. And and and I mean the great thing is all of this right doesn't even include any kind of international markets that are disallowed by or prohibited by Nvidia right now. So, if we even hear anything um any updates on if we can finally start shipping to Saudis or or or to China, any little updates there, I mean, could could push this to definitely a 50 billion uh this quarter, but uh by next quarter estimates are 62 billion. I actually expect from the excitement to actually be closer to 64 uh to 65 billion. Uh so, and that's definitely going to be pretty much led by the data center space.

宏观经济与利率担忧

Amit: 我同意。这之所以非常重要,还因为自11月初以来,S&P 500(Standard & Poor's 500 Index: 标准普尔500指数,代表美国500家大型上市公司的股票指数)已经下跌了4%,我们还经历了一系列不同的宏观事件。今天,如果你关注降息概率——这对于维持牛市的健康至关重要——不仅美国劳工统计局表示今天不会公布10月份的数据,这是一个不太好的消息,而且,大约一小时前,美联储FOMC(Federal Open Market Committee: 联邦公开市场委员会,美联储中负责制定货币政策的机构)的会议纪要发布了,几位与会者表示,他们更担心增加通胀上行的风险,并建议在今年剩余时间内保持利率不变。现在,英伟达的繁荣并不需要低利率,但宏观经济绝对需要低利率。英伟达可能会做好自己的工作,交出漂亮的数字。问题是,在降息以实现年终反弹的背景下,宏观经济是否也能做好自己的工作?Tanner,我先问你,你认为即使没有降息,英伟达也能交出如此强劲的财报,从而克服市场的预期,实现年终反弹吗?特别是因为黄仁勋在GTC上说过,未来五个季度有5000亿美元的机会。你期待这样一个季度吗,就整体数字而言,足以让华尔街再次兴奋起来?

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Amit: Agreed. Uh I mean the other reason this is really important is because obviously we've had a 4% draw down in the S&P 500 since the start of November, we've had a variety of different macro things happen today. I mean if you're looking at rate cut probabilities which are very very important to kind of keep the health of this bull market alive. Uh not only did the Bureau of Labor Statistics say we're not going to be getting the October data today. So that was one thing that was really not the best piece of news. Uh but number two, you had the Fed FOMC minutes come out about an hour ago and uh participants, several of them said that they are more concerned about adding to the risk of higher inflation and suggested it's appropriate to keep rates unchanged for the rest of the year. Now, Nvidia, does it need low rates to thrive, but the macro definitely needs low rates? Nvidia is probably going to do their job and put up the numbers. The question is, will the macro uh also do their job in the context of rates coming down to kind of get us to that end of your rally? Do you guys think, Tanner, I'll give it to you first, that even without the rate cuts, Nvidia can put up such a strong number of earnings that it can overcome the expectations of the market to get this end of year rally, particularly because Jensen said there's a $500 billion opportunity at GTC over the next five quarters. Are you expecting that type of a quarter in terms of just the the overall numbers to really get the street to be a bit more excited again?

Tanner: 是的,你已经说过了。我不认为英伟达的业务成败取决于25个基点的降息。我想鲍威尔甚至也重申了这一点,数据中心领域是一个巨大的潜在市场,机会巨大,以至于四分之一个点的利率变动不会改变Meta、谷歌、微软或任何NeoClouds以及那些依赖这些客户的企业的展望。所以,我认为对于金融和某些利润率紧张的行业来说,他们确实需要那四分之一个点的降息,但我们谈论的是英伟达74%的毛利率。如果他们的客户抱怨那四分之一个点,他们就降价四分之一个点好了。这里有什么可抱怨的呢?

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Tanner: Yeah, I mean, you you you've already said it. I don't think Nvidia is, you know, what's making or breaking their business is 25 basis points of cuts. Like I think Powell even reiterated that, you know, like the the data center play is such a massive total addressable market and there's so there's such a massive opportunity here that a quarter point of uh rates is not going to change Meta's outlook, Google's outlook, Microsoft's outlook or any of the NeoClouds or any of the enterprises that are tapping into those customers. So, um I think for financials and and certain industries that that cut it close on margin, like they really need that quarter point, but you know, we're we're we're talking about 74% gross margins here on Nvidia. If their customers are complaining about the quarter point, we'll drop it a quarter point. Like, you know, what's the complaint here?

Neil: 是的,抱怨更多的是那些有债务、会受到高利率影响的公司。如果利率下降,那么像Core Weave这样的公司每个季度支付的利息就会减少,对吧?我认为这也是我们看到Core Weave表现疲软的原因之一。我们看到了他们和Oracle的信用违约互换(CDS)。压力在这些股票上。同样,25个基点可能看起来不多,但对于像Core Weave,当然还有Oracle这样的公司来说,影响很大。Oracle虽然还是Oracle,但他们并没有足够的自由现金流来支持所有的项目。

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Neil: Yeah, the complaint is more on the on those that have debt that does get influenced by higher rates, right? If rates do come down, then you have companies like Core Weave who will pay less interest every quarter, right? And I think that's also why we've seen a lot of weakness on Core Weave. We've seen them in CDS for uh or Core Weave for Oracle. Um the pressure is on those stocks. Again, 25 basis points might not seem a lot, but for for the likes of Core Weave, definitely Oracle, I mean, Oracle is still Oracle, but they they still they don't really have the free cash flow to support all of the all of the projects.

Tanner: 我认为,如果他们去找客户,而客户说:“嘿,我们很难接受你们的价格。”英伟达的优势在于他们有巨大的价格利润空间,他们可能会通过降价来满足这些客户的需求。所以,是的,我们谈论的仍然是他们采取了非常有利的定价,利润率超过70%,这仅仅是因为他们拥有比任何其他芯片供应商更好的TCO(Total Cost of Ownership: 总拥有成本)。所以,我不知道。我不知道他们是否会受到任何影响。

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Tanner: Well, I think that if they are going to their customers and their customers are saying, "Hey, we're having a hard time meeting you at your prices." I think the advantage that Nvidia has is such a massive margin on price that they could potentially cut price in order to meet those customers needs. So, um, yeah, we're we're still talking about them taking very advantageous pricing here, 70 plus% margins, and that's just because they have the best TCO versus any of the other chip suppliers. So, I don't know. I don't know if they'll be affected by it at all.

关键议题:AI 泡沫与循环融资

Tanner: 至于我们将从黄仁勋那里听到什么,这只是我的看法,我们已经在谈论这个5000亿美元的收入预期了,这是来自他们大客户的。我们还想从他们那里听到什么呢?我认为仅仅重申这一评论本身就会是一种保证,但我不知道股票是否会因此而好转。澄清一下,我对英伟达的期望是良好的基本面数据和他们持续的增长。我并不是说盘后交易会是绿色的,或者市场会积极反应。我们上个季度就看到了这种情况,一个很棒的季度,然后股票就下跌了,甚至在第二天,我想我们下跌了大约7%之类的。但这并不会改变长期投资逻辑,我认为英伟达将真正受益于GTC大会、新闻稿以及他们随着时间推移签署和谈论的数千兆瓦级交易,而不仅仅是他们季度性的数字发布。

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Tanner: Um, in terms of what we'll hear from Jensen, and this is just my opinion, we're already talking about this $500 billion uh expectation of revenue for for from their large customers. What more do we want to hear from them? I think just a reiteration of that comment alone would be um you know some sort of reassurance, but I don't know if necessarily the stock is going to turn around on like just so we're clear, my expectations of Nvidia is good fundamental numbers and them continuing to grow. I'm not necessarily calling for green in the aftermarkets or that the market is going to react positively. We saw this last quarter, great quarter, and then you know the stock sold off and even in the next day I think we were down like 7% or something. But it it doesn't change the the long-term thesis and I think so or Nvidia is going to really benefit on you know the GTC's and the press releases and the uh you know multi-gigawatt deals that they end up signing and talking about over time, not just the quarterly releases of their numbers.

Jose: 我和 Tanner 的看法类似,因为我们已经知道很多了。黄仁勋还能告诉我们什么更多的事情呢?他在 GTCDC 上已经告诉了我们一切。我们已经看到了所有这些很棒的更新和各种 AI 投资的公告。他在财报期间还能说些什么来让我们更兴奋呢?我的意思是,显然,如果他给我们一个很好的指引,那就足够了,但除此之外,我不知道。希望我是错的,他能给我们一些让我们在盘后感到兴奋的东西。但就像 Taylor 提到的,总的来说,我为公司的基本面感到兴奋,盘后的表现基本上是抛硬币。

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Jose: I have a similar take there to Tanner because I mean we already know a lot of what more can Jensen tell us like he already gave us everything during GTCDC. We already seen kind of all these great updates and and all these announcements of various AI investments. Like what more can he say during earnings to really get us a little bit more excited? I mean, obviously guidance is is is is more than enough if he gives us a great guidance, but outside of that, I don't know. And and hopefully I'm I'm I'm hopefully I'm I'm I'm wrong and he gives us something that that gets us pretty excited after hours. But like Taylor mentioned, for overall, I'm excited for the company's fundamental after hours is pretty much a coin flip.

Amit: 好的,大家都很看好。我刚在聊天室里做了一个投票。四个选项:英伟达财报后股价在180到185,185到190,190到200,或者低于180。44%的人认为会到190到200。顺便说一下,期权市场,隐含波动率为7.5%。看涨期权比看跌期权多得多,尤其是在190到200的区间。所以,如果有波动,你可以看出期权市场正试图预示股价将向上移动到200。当然,期权市场过去也错过很多次,但我认为这将是一个非常有趣的波动。因为就像Tanner说的,英伟达已经给了我们太多信息,那5000亿美元五个季度的说法是在GTC上说的,那是个重磅炸弹。你还能说什么呢?所以,我认为这次电话会议真正的问题是,他们能否兑现承诺,能否展示出他们有执行这一使命的基础。还有整个GPU折旧的争论,我相信黄仁勋会被问到这个问题。他们能否清楚地说明GPU折旧对他们的客户有利,而不会阻止客户升级到下一代型号,而这正是英伟 达继续销售芯片所必需的。

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Amit: Okay, so people are pretty bullish. I just put a poll in my chat. Four options. Nvidia after earnings 180 to 185, 185 to 190, 190 to 200 or below 180. 44% of people are saying 190 to 200. And by the way, the options market, so there's a 7.5% implied move. Uh there are a lot more calls than there are puts, especially in that 190 to 200 range. So I mean, if there is a move, you could tell that the options market is trying to foreshadow a move upwards to 200. Now the options market has been wrong many times in the past but uh I think it is going to be a very very interesting move because again just like Tanner said Nvidia's already given us so much information the whole 500 billion in five quarters is they said that edge ETC and that was kind of the bombshell what more can you say so really I think the question on this call is going to be can they live up to that can they show that they're having the foundation to execute against that mission and this whole GPU argument right the GPU depreciation I'm sure Jensen's going to be asked about that can they clearly say that the GPU depreciation is good for their customers and not stopping their customers from upgrading to the next model which is what's necessary for Nvidia to continue selling chips.

Jose: 有一件事,我想说,关于5000亿美元这个数字,我感觉在华尔街和网上存在一些混淆。因为有些人说这是Blackwell和Reuben在计算第一季度和第二季度以及之前季度的总额。现在,有些人说这只计算了未来五个季度。我相信实际上是前者而不是后者。即使是前者,这仍然非常乐观,因为它仍然远高于整体共识。但我相信这将是一个问题,我们最终会从黄仁勋,更重要的是从真正处理数字的Colette那里得到确认。

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Jose: And one thing I mean I would say with the $500 billion number there's I feel like some confusion um happening uh in Wall Street and online um because some people are saying it's $500 billion for Blackwell and Reuben counting quarter one and quarter two quarter uh come the previous quarters. Now, some people are saying that is just counting the next five quarters. I believe it's actually the prior opposed to the latter. Even though um even if it's the prior, it's still very bullish because it's still much higher than the overall consensus. But I do believe the that's going to be a question that we're going to finally get a confirmation from um from from Jensen and more importantly from from Colette uh which really deals with the numbers there.

Amit: 好的,朋友们。开始了。今天是11月19日,星期三,下午4点。英伟达第三季度财报。感谢大家来到这里。股市现在已经收盘了。现在我们等待着看数千亿美元是上涨还是下跌,以及我们是会变富还是变穷。

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Amit: All right, folks. Here we go. It is a Wednesday, November 19th, 4:00 p.m. Nvidia Q3 earnings. Thank you everybody for being here. The stock market is now closed. And now we wait to see hundreds of billions of dollars either go up or down. and for us to either be rich or poor.

Jose: 基本上就是这样。

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Jose: That's basically it. That's basically basically it.

Amit: 基本上就是这样。

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Amit: That's basically it.

Amit: 好的。英伟达股价186.52。我们应该在大约5到7分钟内得到他们的财报。甲骨文今天下跌了约21%。特斯拉上涨了约68%。标普500指数今天实际上收涨,报662.72。Robinhood今天表现不错,上涨了3.38%。Palantir一度达到162美元,最终收于165.42美元,当天仍为红色。博通因为谷歌而上涨。谷歌因为Gemini 3.0非常真实而上涨。谷歌一度达到3003美元,收于293美元。博通当天上涨了约4.5%。亚马逊在当天跌破220美元后,最终收涨。SoFi报26.72美元,上涨了约1.82%。比特币和以太坊,我们没谈到,但显然它们受到了相当大的打击。比特币当天报89,000.5美元,以太坊报2945美元。它也曾一度达到2800美元。

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Amit: All right. Nvidia 186.52. We should be getting their earnings in about 5 to 7 minutes. Oracle was down about 21% on the day. Tesla up about 68%. S&P actually ended green on the day 662.72. Robinhood nice little day 3.38%. Palantir did get to the 162s 165.42 still ended red for the day. Broadcom was up because of the googs. The googs was up because Gemini 3.0 is very very real. Google hit uh 3003 at one point ended at 293. Broadcom was up about 4 and a.5% on the day. Amazon actually ended green after going red below 220 on the day. SoFi 2672 that was up about 1.82%. Bitcoin and Ethereum and we didn't talk about it but obviously those got hit pretty bad. Bitcoin right there 89,000.5 on the day and Ethereum at 2945. It did get to 2,800 at one point as well.

Amit: 英伟达现在是186.57。好的,我们很快就会得到这些数字了。Tanner,对于Gemini 3.0在英伟达财报前一天发布有什么看法?你认为这对本季度有什么影响吗?

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Amit: Nvidia right here 186.57. All right. So, we should be getting these numbers soon. Uh Tanner, any thoughts on Gemini 3.0 coming out a day before Nvidia earnings and any implications on that you think for the quarter?

Tanner: 对英伟达的季度?我不觉得有太大影响。但它是一个很棒的模型。我对谷歌的股票总体上非常兴奋,我已经说了一段时间了,我确实认为他们……顺便说一下,伙计们,这些红色蜡烛图,英伟达预计要到4点20分左右才会公布财报。

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Tanner: Um for Nvidia's quarter? I don't think about it too much. Um but it's a great model. I mean I'm very excited for Google stock in general and I I've been calling this for some time that I do think that they have you know by the way guys to these red candles uh Nvidia is not expected to show earnings till 4:20 or so.

Amit: 哦真的吗?还有20分钟。

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Amit: Oh really? It's 20 minutes.

Tanner: 是的,我们有时间。好的,太酷了。是的,所以让我们关注Palo Alto之类的公司。我们显然会关注这个,但Palo Alto会在此之前发布。

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Tanner: Yeah we have time. Okay cool. Yeah. So uh let's focus on Palo Alto and stuff. Well well obviously look at this but um Palo Alto is going to be coming out before that.

Amit: 等等,今天还有别的公司?

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Amit: Wait. Other for today.

Tanner: 抱歉。

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Tanner: Sorry,

Neil: 我说,今天的其他竞争对手。

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Neil: I said other competition for today.

Tanner: 我不知道哪些CEO有胆量把财报和英伟达安排在同一天。今天除了英伟达,看其他公司财报的估计也就五个人。话虽如此,谷歌,他们拥有自己的芯片,拥有自己的数据。他们通过YouTube拥有专有数据。他们拥有所有的客户,数十亿人使用YouTube、Google Workplace和Google搜索等等。很难不看好谷歌及其在人工智能领域的优势。我们在这里是讨论英伟达,但我认为TPU(Tensor Processing Unit: 张量处理单元,谷歌为机器学习定制的专用集成电路)对谷歌来说也会做得很好。我只是觉得他们在这里的定位非常好。但是,你问我Gemini 3对英伟达意味着什么?我认为不多。我只是觉得这表明我们仍在这些模型上取得进步,而人们认为我们会在某个时候开始无法达到越来越高的基准。但今天还没到那个时候。我们还没发现那个瓶颈。

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Tanner: I don't know which CEOs are brave enough to line that up with Nvidia. Watch five people be watching any of the other companies other than Nvidia today. Um, but that being said, uh, Google, I mean, they have they own their own silicon. They own their own data. They have proprietary data through YouTube. They have all the customers, billions of people going to YouTube and and Google Workplace and and Google Search and all these things. I've just it was hard to bet against Google and their advantage in artificial intelligence. And you know, we're we're here to talk about Nvidia, but I think that TPUs are going to do well for uh Google as well. I just think they're extremely well uh positioned right here. But um yeah, you asked me what does Gemini 3 mean for Nvidia? I don't think much. I just think that it shows off that uh you know we're still advancing in these models and people think that you know somewhere we're going to start not being able to hit higher and higher benchmarks. It's not today. We haven't found it.

Amit: Neil,同样的问题也问你,然后是Jose。你认为Gemini引入的原始模型能力是否让人们对一直在流传的AI泡沫论调感到不那么害怕了?

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Amit: Uh Neil, same question to you and then Jose as well. Do you think just the the raw model capacity that Gemini introduced kind of got people to feel a little less scared about the AI bubble narrative that's been going on?

Neil: 我不知道。我觉得有趣的是,今天我们看着谷歌,说哦,谷歌对Perplexity、对OpenAI构成了威胁,而12个月前,也就是今年年初,是Perplexity、ChatGPT,它们都要来挑战谷歌,要摧毁谷歌。现在看看,谁回来了,王者归来。谷歌就在顶端。谷歌的优势在于他们能印钞。所以他们可以免费提供很多东西。这真的不重要。其他公司做不到,比如Perplexity、Core Weaves、Core Reefs、Chipt,他们不能免费提供东西。ChatGPT预计在未来几年会烧掉天知道多少钱。你不能问Sam他会产生多少收入,因为他会想让你卖掉你的股票。但是,是的,我的意思是,谷歌再次展示了为什么谷歌是谷歌,为什么我仍然认为谷歌现在应该是地球上最有价值的两家公司之一。

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Neil: Um I don't know. I think it's it's interesting and funny how today we are looking at Google and we're saying oh Google is a threat to perplexity to open AI when what was it 12 months ago start of this year it was perplexity chat GPT they're all coming for Google they're going to destroy Google and now look look who's back the return of the king I mean Google is there at the top and again Google's strength is the fact that they are printing cash. So they they can offer so many things for free. It doesn't really matter much. The other companies they cannot the the perplexities the core weaves the core the core weaves the core reefs the chipt they cannot offer things for free. I mean chaptt is they expected to burn god knows how much money for the next couple of years. Sam you cannot ask him how much he's going to generate in revenue because he would want you to sell your shares. But yeah, I I I mean Google again is showing why Google is Google and why I still think that Google should be top two uh biggest comp most valuable companies on the planet right now.

Amit: 你知道还有谁这么想吗?沃伦·巴菲特。

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Amit: You know who else thinks that? Warren Buffett.

Neil: 嗯,也许不是他,但伯克希尔·哈撒韦是这么想的。

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Neil: Well, maybe not, but Berkshire Hathaway.

Amit: Jose,你对整个AI泡沫论有什么新的想法吗?

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Amit: Um Jose, any updated thoughts that you have on this whole AI bubble argument?

Jose: 我不知道。我现在对AI太看好了,以至于我甚至不把那些三年GPU折旧率当回事。我的意思是,我不知道。有些事情需要注意,有些公司需要注意,但我关注的那些,比如超大规模云服务商,显然还有英伟达,我对这些不担心。现在说到Gemini,实际上有一件事是英伟达和谷歌合作的。我们知道谷歌不用英伟达的GPU来训练Gemini,但有一个企业市场,由于国家安全原因,有时不喜欢在云上运行东西。他们就喜欢有自己的本地数据中心。英伟达与谷歌有合作关系,你可以购买他们的服务器来运行这些Gemini模型。所以,如果你看到对Gemini的这种兴奋,从长远来看,这可能对英伟达和谷歌共同拥有的那个产品是一个很好的推动力。

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Jose: Um I just I don't know. I'm I'm just too bullish in AI right now to um even take some of these three year GPU depreciation rates serious. Like I mean I don't know. It's there are certain things to watch out for. There are certain companies to watch out for but the ones that I follow pretty much like the hyperscalers uh obviously your Nvidia like those I'm not worried about. Um now with Gemini right there are there is actually one thing that Nvidia and Google partner up. Uh we know that Google doesn't use their TPU uh Nvidia GPUs to train Gemini but there is a enterprise market that sometimes doesn't like to run things on the cloud um due to national security reasons. They just like to have their own uh location um data centers and on premise data centers and Nvidia has partnership with a partnership with Google where um you buy their servers to kind of run uh these Gemini models. So, if you kind of see this excitement for Gemini, it could maybe in the long-term thesis be a nice kind of tailwind for that product that Nvidia and Google have together.

财报震撼发布:业绩与指引双双超预期

Amit: 我们是绿色的。189,初步反应是积极的。189.40。这个绿色必须保持住。这次财报季有很多绿色蜡烛图,然后立刻反转。所以,我们得看看它是否能保持住。我们能突破190吗?190已经被突破了。我们盘后上涨了大约3%。它还在继续保持。

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Amit: We're green. 189 initial reaction is positive. 189.40. That green's got to hold. This earnings has been a lot of green candlesticks and then reversals immediately. So, we got to see if that can hold. Can we break 190? 190 has been broken. We're up about 3% after hours. It's continuing to hold.

Jose: 好的。每股收益是1.30美元,高于预期的1.26美元,营收是570亿美元。两者都超出了3%。

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Jose: Okay. Uh EPS is a $1.30 up from a $1.26 expected and revenue was 57 billion. Both beat by 3%.

Neil: 营收同比增长了62%。我的意思是,即使是6%,不,我们预期的是55%的同比增长。

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Neil: Revenue was up 62% year-over-year. I mean, even though that's six, no, we were expecting 55% year-over-year growth.

Amit: 这不坏。营收同比增长62%,对于这样规模的公司来说。每股收益同比增长60%。我们有指引吗?那才是重要的。英伟达现在是193。市场喜欢它。

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Amit: That is not bad. Revenue is up 62% year-over-year on a company of this size. EPS is up 60% year-over-year. Do we have the guide? That's the important one. Nvidia now 193. Street likes it.

Jose: 我终于可以松一口气了。天哪。好了,我们没事了。

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Jose: I can finally take a breath. Holy. All right, we're fine.

Amit: 我几乎忘了,直到你提醒我。太可怕了。

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Amit: I almost forgot to until you reminded me. Terrifying.

Jose: 是的,我这里脸都红了。我正在找那个指引。

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Jose: Yeah, I was turning red here. I'm trying to look for this guidance.

Amit: 我也在看指引。那是关键数字。让我们看看能不能帮你们找到。哇,194,市场喜欢它。

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Amit: I'm trying to see the guide as well. That's the big number. Let's see if we can get you guys that. Wow. 194 street likes it.

Amit: 市场喜欢它。再说一次,它必须保持住,但它做得很好。这上涨了差不多……

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Amit: The street likes it. Now again, it's got to hold it, but it's doing a pretty good job. That's up almost

Jose: 还有Core Weave。Core Weave上涨了4.5%。Nebius上涨了4.5%。

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Jose: and Core Weave. Core Weave is up 4.5. Nebius's 4.5.

Neil: 我跑了5%。所有东西都涨了。大家都涨了。

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Neil: I run 5%. Everything's Everyone's up.

Amit: 伙计们,这是对的吗?你们看到第四季度指引是650亿美元吗?因为如果这是真的,那就是40亿美元的超预期。

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Amit: Guys. Is this right? Are you seeing 65 billion on Q4? Cuz that's a $4 billion beat if that's correct.

Jose: 我看到的是650亿。我正在确认,但是……

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Jose: I'm seeing 65 billion. I'm trying to confirm, but

Neil: 是的,我看到的就是这个。我刚打开了650亿的新闻稿。

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Neil: Yeah, that's what I see. I just opened up the press release of 65 billion.

Amit: 哇,老兄。那是指引上超预期40亿美元。而且你知道他们在第四季度会超过650亿。

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Amit: Wow, dude. That's a $4 billion beat on the guide. And you know they're going to beat 65 in Q4.

Jose: 是的,是的。那是他们的保守数字,这太疯狂了。他们的保守数字仍然几乎等于最乐观的预期。我想最乐观的是美国银行的650亿。所以这太疯狂了。

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Jose: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's their conservative number which is crazy. Which is their conservative number is still bit almost as equal as the most bullish. I think the most bullish was Bank of America with 65. Uh so that is insane.

Neil: 如果我们看到像中国市场这样的市场开放,或者我们说,是的,我们现在可以向中东发货了。我的意思是,即使从那里看,这也是一个轻松的超预期。所以这是保守中的保守。

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Neil: And then if we ever see a market like the China market or we say yeah we can actually ship to to the Middle East right now. I mean that's an easy beat even from there. So it's conservative conservative.

Amit: 所以指引是637亿到663亿。所以在低端,他们说的是640亿。市场认为会是610亿。也许私下预期是620亿。所以他们再次超出了预期。但在高端,他们指引的是660亿,这意味着如果他们最终达到比如680亿。那将是巨大的超预期。我的意思是,到那时你还能对他们有什么要求呢?

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Amit: So the guide is 63.7 to 66.3. So on the low end they're saying 64. Street thought it would be 61. Maybe the whisper number was 62. So they beat that again. But they're guiding on the high end for 66 which means they if they come in at like 68. That is a massive beat on the I mean what more could you want from them at that point?

Tanner: 伙计,看看数据中心业务,季度环比就增长了100亿美元。季度环比增长25%,年同比增长66%,这还只是数据中心业务。

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Tanner: Man look at just data center alone increased by $10 billion quarter over quarter. 25% quarter-over-quarter growth, 66% year-over-year growth for data center alone.

Jose: 可能只有我关心这个,但专业可视化业务也季度环比增长了26%,年同比增长了56%,达到了7.6亿美元。我的意思是,现在所有那些工作站都被AI工程师和任何能用上那些漂亮的RTX Pro GPU的人抢购一空了。

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Jose: The the only person that probably cares about this is Jose, but uh professional visualization as well was up 26% quarter over-quarter and 56% year-over-year to $760 million. Uh I mean now all those workstations are being just gobbled up by AI engineers and anybody else that can use those nice RTX Pro GPUs.

Tanner: 虽然是很小的业务线,但看着也很有趣。

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Tanner: Very small line item but still fun to watch.

Jose: 现金等价物有600亿美元。

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Jose: Some cash equivalent $60 billion.

Tanner: 哇。

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Tanner: Wow.

Amit: 他们有充足的现金。黄仁勋说:“Blackwell的销售火爆,云GPU已售罄。计算需求在训练和推理两方面都在加速和复合增长,两者都呈指数级增长。我们已经进入了AI的良性循环。AI生态系统正在快速扩展,有更多的基础模型制造商,更多的AI初创公司,遍布更多行业和更多国家。AI正在无处不在,无所不能。” 营收方面,你可以看到是570亿美元,同比增长62%。毛利率接近74%。运营支出为58亿美元。运营收入为360亿,然后净利润为310亿美元,净利润率高达55%,令人难以置信。第四季度展望为650亿美元。

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Amit: They have plenty of cash. So Jensen quote "Blackwell sales are off the charts and cloud GPUs are sold out. Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference each growing exponentially. We've entered the virtuous cycle of AI. The AI ecosystem is scaling fast with more foundation model makers, more AI startups across more industries and in more countries. AI is going everywhere doing everything all at once." Uh revenue again you can see 57 billion. That's up 62% year-over-year. Gross margins inching towards 74%. Opex at 5.8 billion. operating income 36 and then you have net income 31 billion of profit which is a uh 55% 54% net income margin incredible and then fourth quarter outlook 65 billion.

财报电话会议核心要点

Colette Kress: 谢谢,Toshia。我们又交付了一个出色的季度,营收达到570亿美元,同比增长62%,季度环比增长创纪录地达到100亿美元,即22%。我们的客户继续拥抱三大平台转变,为加速计算、强大的AI模型和代理应用带来了指数级增长。然而,我们仍处于这些将影响我们每个行业工作的转型的早期阶段。我们目前可以看到,从今年年初到2026日历年年底,Blackwell和Reuben的收入将达到五千亿美元。通过执行我们的年度产品节奏,并通过全栈设计扩展我们的性能领先地位,我们相信到本十年末,在每年三到四万亿美元的AI基础设施建设中,英伟达将是卓越的选择。

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Colette Kress: Thank you, Toshia. We delivered another outstanding quarter with revenue of 57 billion, up 62% year-over-year and a record sequential revenue growth of 10 billion or 22%. Our customers continue to lean into three platform shifts, fueling exponential growth for accelerated computing, powerful AI models, and agentic applications. Yet, we are still in the early innings of these transitions that will impact our work across every industry. We currently have visibility to a half a trillion dollars in Blackwell and Reuben revenue from the start of this year through the end of calendar year 2026. By executing our annual product cadence and extending our performance leadership through full stack design, we believe NVIDIA will be the superior choice for the three to four trillion dollars in annual AI infrastructure build we estimate by the end of the decade.

Jensen Huang: 谢谢,Colette。关于AI泡沫的讨论很多。从我们的角度来看,我们看到的情况非常不同。提醒一下,英伟达与其他任何加速器都不同。我们在AI的每个阶段都表现出色,从预训练、后训练到推理。凭借我们二十年来对CUDA X加速库的投资,我们在科学与工程模拟、计算机图形、结构化数据处理到经典机器学习方面也同样卓越。世界正在同时经历三大平台转变。自摩尔定律诞生以来,这是第一次,英伟达独特地应对着这三大转型。

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Jensen Huang: Thanks, Colette. There's been a lot of talk about an AI bubble. From our vantage point, we see something very different. As a reminder, Nvidia is unlike any other accelerator. We excel at every phase of AI from pre-training and post-training to inference. And with our two decade investment in CUDA X acceleration libraries, we are also exceptional at science and engineering simulations, computer graphics, structured data processing to classical machine learning. The world is going is undergoing three massive platform shifts at once. The first time since the dawn of Moore's law, Nvidia is uniquely addressing each of the three transformations.

Jensen Huang: 第一个转型是从CPU通用计算到GPU加速计算。随着摩尔定律放缓,世界在非AI软件上投入了巨额资金,从数据处理到科学和工程模拟,每年代表着数千亿美元的云计算支出。许多这些曾经完全在CPU上运行的应用,现在正迅速转向CUDA GPU。加速计算已经达到了一个引爆点。

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Jensen Huang: The first transition is from CPU general purpose computing to GPU accelerated computing. As Moore's law slows, the world has a massive investment in non-AI software from data processing to science and engineering simulations representing hundreds of billions of dollars in compute cloud computing spend each year. Many of these applications which ran once exclusively on CPUs are now rapidly shifting to CUDA GPUs. Accelerated computing has reached a tipping point.

Jensen Huang: 其次,AI也达到了一个引爆点,正在改变现有应用,同时催生全新的应用。对于现有应用,生成式AI正在取代经典机器学习,应用于搜索排名、推荐系统、广告定位、点击率预测到内容审核等领域,这些都是超大规模基础设施的基石。Meta的Gem,一个用于广告推荐的基础模型,在大型GPU集群上训练,就是这一转变的例证。在第二季度,Meta报告称,在生成式AI驱动的Gem的推动下,Instagram的广告转化率提高了5%以上,Facebook信息流的转化率提高了3%。向生成式AI转型为超大规模云服务商带来了可观的收入增长。

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Jensen Huang: Secondly, AI is also reached a tipping point and is transforming existing applications while enabling entirely new ones. For existing applications, generative AI is replacing classical machine learning in search ranking, recommender systems, ad targeting, click-through prediction to content moderation, the very foundations of hyperscale infrastructure. Meta's Gem, a foundation model for ad recommendations trained on large-scale GPU clusters, exemplifies this shift. In Q2, Meta reported over a 5% increase in ad conversions on Instagram and 3% gain on Facebook feed driven by generative AI based gem. Transitioning to generative AI represents substantial revenue gains for hyperscalers.

Jensen Huang: 现在,一股新的浪潮正在兴起。能够推理、规划和使用工具的代理式AI系统,从像Cursor和Quad Code这样的编码助手,到像IDo这样的放射学工具,像Harvey这样的法律助手,以及像特斯拉FSD和Waymo这样的AI司机。这些系统标志着计算的下一个前沿。当今世界增长最快的公司:OpenAI、Anthropic、XAI、谷歌、Cursor、Lovable、Replet、Cognition AI、Open Evidence、A Bridge、特斯拉,都在开创代理式AI。

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Jensen Huang: Now a new wave is rising. Agentic AI systems capable of reasoning, planning and using tools from coding assistants like cursor and quad code to radiology tools like ID do legal assistants like Harvey and AI chauffeuers like Tesla FSD and Waymo. These systems mark the next frontier of computing. The fastest growing companies in the world today. OpenAI, Anthropic, XAI, Google, Cursor, Lovable, Replet, Cognition AI, Open Evidence, A Bridge, Tesla are pioneering agentic AI.

财报后的市场分析与展望

Amit: 我同意。我认为你关于捍卫整个行业的观点是100%正确的。他提到了OpenAI很多次,还有Anthropic。从核心上讲,这些都是英伟达的主要客户,并且将继续是主要客户,但他必须确保每个人都相信这些公司不是纸牌屋。Meta,他提到了推荐模型很多次。所以这次电话会议与其他会议有些不同,他提到了AI生命周期中许多不同的产品。我的意思是,他总是这样做,但这次我认为他更侧重于“嘿,你可以用AI做这个,你可以用AI做那个,你可以做这个”。特斯拉、FSD、Waymo,提到了很多东西。我认为他这次提到最少的是机器人技术。但所有这些用例,市场必须相信会有巨大的潜力、巨大的机会,以及需要购买大量的芯片来实现这些用例。只要市场相信这一点,并且有了这样的指引,很难说市场不会相信。英伟达的股票应该会表现良好。

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Amit: I would agree. I think the point you're making about the defense of the industry 100%. He mentioned OpenAI a good chunk of times along with Anthropic um and at its core I mean these are major customers for Nvidia and they will continue to be major customers but he's got to make sure everyone believes that these are not house of cards open and cropic etc meta I mean he mentioned the recommender model so many times and so this call was a bit different than other calls where he mentioned many many different products in the AI life cycle I mean he always does that but this time I think there was a bit more of a focus on hey you could do this with AI you could do this with AI you can do this I Tesla, FSD, Whimo, so many things were mentioned. I think the one he mentioned the least was robotics this time. But all of those use cases, the market has to believe there is going to be a lot of potential, a lot of opportunity and a lot of chips that need to be bought to make those use cases reality. And as long as the market believes that and with the guidance, it's hard to say the market won't believe that. Nvidia stock should perform.

Jose: 有一点很酷,你提到Anthropic时提醒了我,他们提到平台获胜的次数增加了。以前人们可能会说,“你知道吗,让我试试这些ASIC芯片吧。让我试试这些其他的参与者。”而他说,“不,情况正在改变,他们在尝试了其他选择之后,又回到了我们的平台。”他提到这将是Anthropic第一次真正建立在英伟达的GPU上。以前,他们使用的是亚马逊的Trainium和谷歌的TPU。这是一个很好的例子,展示了市场上领先的参与者之一说:“是的,你知道吗?这些ASIC很酷,但我需要更多。我需要更多,我需要转向英伟达,因为他们做得更好。”即使不完全跳槽,也要购买另一艘船来驾驭这股浪潮。

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Jose: And and and one thing that was pretty cool, I mean, you you reminded me when you talked about Anthropic was uh they mentioned that the number of platform wins has increased where back then people would be like, "you know what, let me go try one of these ASIC chips instead. Let me go try maybe one of these players." And he's like, "no, that's changing after they went to go try, they're coming back and doing it on our platform." He mentioned this is going to be the first time Anthropic is really going to be set on Nvidia GPUs. Back then, they used to be using Amazon's tranium and Google's TPU. So that is a great showcase of one of the leading players in the market and say, "Yeah, you know what? These A6 are pretty cool, but I I need more. I need more and I need to go jump into Nvidia because they're doing something better." Um if if I'm if I'm not necessarily jumping complete ship, but buying another ship to ride this wave as well.

Amit: 你们刚才在强调关于AMD的一些事情,我走开了一会儿,没听到关于一些人说的“开火了”的评论。那是什么情况?

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Amit: Uh you you guys were highlighting something about um AMD. I had stepped away for a quick second. I didn't end up hearing what the comments were around some some people said shots fired in the chat and stuff. I didn't hear what was going on. Was that what it was about?

Neil: 他基本上是说,我们得到股权,我们不需要在与合作伙伴做交易时放弃股权。

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Neil: He basically said we are getting equity. We don't have to give up equity when we make deals with partners.

Amit: 我的意思是,这百分之百是真的。他是对的。交易的结构完全相反。英伟达得到了更好的一半。哦,感恩节晚餐上,黄仁勋和苏姿丰……

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Amit: I mean it's it's a thousand% true. He is right. The deals were structured completely opposite. Um Nvidia got the better half. Oh, Thanksgiving dinner just got Jensen and Lisa Sue.

Tanner: 老兄,想象一下,你知道感恩节和家人在一起因为政治原因会很尴尬。想象一下,一个人全仓AMD,你全仓英伟达。就像……

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Tanner: Dude, imagine like you know you know you know Thanksgiving is awkward if with your family politically. Imagine one's like all an AMD, you're all an Nvidia. Like

Amit: 不,他的意思是黄仁勋和苏姿丰是表亲之类的。

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Amit: No, he means that Jensen and Lisa Sue are cousins or whatever.

Tanner: 不,我知道。但还是很有趣。

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Tanner: No, I know. But still, it's funny.

Amit: 说到感恩节,我觉得至少在美国,感恩节会容易一些。老兄,知道自己亏了数十万美元还吃火鸡可不是最有趣的事。赚钱了会让火鸡更好吃一点。所以也许黄仁勋为我们拯救了感恩节。

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Amit: Speaking of Thanksgiving, like I feel like at least in the States, Thanksgiving is going to be a little bit easier. Dude, it's not the most fun to eat turkey knowing you're down hundreds of thousands of dollars. Being up is a little makes the turkey a little better. So maybe Jensen did save Thanksgiving for us here.

Tanner: 有了黄仁勋,谁还需要圣诞老人?

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Tanner: Who needs Santa Claus when you have Jensen?

Amit: 有了黄仁勋,谁还需要圣诞老人?不,但说真的,我的意思是整个盘后市场。他提到了很多名字。给了我们Core Weave的提及。给了我们Nebius的提及,Nebius涨到了103。Core Weave几乎到了81。标普500指数盘后上涨了整整1%。他说所有的新兴云服务商都扮演着重要的角色。Iren回到了50以上。

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Amit: Who needs Santa Claus when you have Jen? No, but seriously, I mean the entire market after hours. He mentioned so many names. Gave us the core we've mentioned. Gave us the Nebus mentioned 103 on Nebius almost. Cory almost at 81. S&P is up a full 1% after hours. Said all the NEO clouds play a valuable role. Iran right there back above 50.

Tanner: 我不想离题,所以我会尽量简短,但我不知道整个市场是否像依赖英伟达一样依赖于人工智能带来的生产力提升。所以你需要看看主要公司在做什么,比如ChatGPT、Gemini、Meta等等,这应该会决定市场的看涨程度。英伟达是这些模型有多好的次要效应。如果我们看到它们带来了真正的生产力和实际用例,那么就需要购买更多的芯片。所以,从本质上讲,我认为市场关注的不是英伟达,而是人工智能作为我们一生中见过的最高效的资产或新技术突破。所以,除非情况改变,除非Gemini 4没有发布新的基准测试或者类似的事情发生,我将继续极其看好。

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Tanner: I I don't want to go on a tangent, so I'll keep it as short as I can, but I don't know if the whole market is hanging on Nvidia as much as they're all hanging on the productivity gains from artificial intelligence. Um so so you you need to see what the main companies are doing the chat GPTs the Geminis the metas etc and and that should set the course of how bullish the market is Nvidia is a you know a secondary effect of how good those models are if if we're seeing real productivity and real use cases out of them then more chips need to be purchased um so essentially I think the market is hung up not on Nvidia but artificial intelligence being the most productive asset or or new technology breakthrough that we've ever seen in our lifetime. So, um until that changes, until you know Gemini 4 does not put out new benchmarks or something along these lines, I continue to be extremely bullish and um yeah. Yeah, that's it.

Amit: 说得好。感谢大家花时间与我们在一起。我们非常非常感激。每个季度都有人花时间与我们在一起,这对我们意义重大。我们将在2月25日英伟达第四季度财报时再次相聚,然后继续前进。谢谢大家。祝大家晚安。

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Amit: Love it. Thank you everybody for spending your time with us. We deeply deeply appreciate it. Uh it means a lot for people to spend their time with us every single quarter. And uh we'll be here February 25th for Q4 earnings for Nvidia and we'll keep going from there. Thank you everybody. Have a good night.

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