重构开发边界:AI编排时代下的拟物化突围与级次滑移 AI Engineer 2026-07-08

从“工具时代”到“编排时代”:AI演进下的范式转移

在探索如何应对当下的AI精神分裂(AI Psychosis: 面对AI快速迭代而产生的认知与心理冲击)时,我们必须回顾模型发展的几个关键纪元。在Claude 3.5 Sonnet风靡的“工具调用时代”,模型首次能够稳定且可靠地在代码库上下文里执行基本的工具调用,让日常开发流程得以半自动化。随后推出的Claude 4.5 Opus则代表了“长时运行任务阶段”的到来,它能自主执行跨越数小时的复杂、多步骤任务而不会迷失方向。而最新一代的Mythos模型则正式开启了“自主编排”的纪元。它不仅理解代码库,更拥有强大的自我认知,能够自主生成并调度其他子模型,将庞杂的开发任务拆解为小模块进行分发,并在任务结束后执行多维度的自我验证。这意味着开发人员不再需要构建繁琐的“软件工厂”或复杂的脚手架,而只需通过提示词引导模型向更深处探索。

事实上,模型能力的增长速度已经远远超越了人类自身的进步速度。过去我们曾断言AI技术即将触及物理与数据的天花板,但事实证明这一预测完全错误。为了在智能加速的曲线中生存,我们必须打破过去处理简单Jira工单的思维惯性,将视野投向规模更大、逻辑更复杂的系统构建。

Original English Source

Hello. Hello. Fantastic to see you guys here. I still can't believe they're letting me take a stage at something like this, a YouTuber apparently. But can't wait to share a bit about how I've been thinking because if I'm being real, kind of going through some AI psychosis. Who here would classify how they feel right now as some form of AI psychosis? I want to see some hands. The those who don't have their hands up yet, don't worry. We'll get you there by the end of this talk if I do everything right. In order to talk about this, I want to start with a bit of a personal journey of my own. And I'm going to go through this the way anybody does in modern timelines with the models. Who here used Sonnet 3.5 when it was the creme de la creme, the cream of the crop model available to us? It was unbelievably better than what we had used before, right? Like having used all of these different models and trying them in tools. Sonnet 35 was a big moment for me because it felt like these models could suddenly complete much more endto-end tasks like actually get real work done that takes multiple steps. And then we got Opus 45. Who felt or I'll go different way differently here. who didn't feel a big jump when they switched over to Opus 45. That's a relief. There were not too many hands because Opus 45 is probably when my psychosis started in November and December of last year. Having a model that couldn't just write the code and call tools, but could go way further. A model that could test the work and actually get it into a good state and complete tasks that take hours instead of minutes. It was unbelievable. Then we got Mythos. Who here's a chance to play with mythos and fable so far? We agree it's a pretty damn good model, right? But why? It's not just better at coding. If you handed a prompt that you would have handed to these other models before, it's not going to feel that different. I think of these almost as eras now where Sonnet 35 is the tool call era. Not that it was the first model that could do tool calls. rather it was the first one that did them consistently and reliably enough in context of a codebase where you could use this for day-to-day coding work. Then we got Opus 45 which was able to do much longer running tasks without losing track of what it's working on. It's no longer okay build step one and then it does it then you say okay can you build this next part and then the next part you can just tell it what you want and it could figure it out a lot of the time. Mythos is another jump to orchestration. It feels to me like it's the first model that doesn't just understand your codebase, but it understands itself and it knows how to spawn additional models and break up work in a way where it could be completed more reliably and then verified afterwards. And if you tell the model to do that, it will just do it. You don't need some custom tooling, some custom systems, some fancy software factory. You just need to prompt it to go a little further. I think you'll be surprised how far it can go. What I'm trying to say here is we need to go bigger. You're not going to see the benefits going forward if you're not pushing the model further. You're not pushing yourself further with what you're building. Most of the juror tickets I closed at my previous job could be trivially solved with a model like Opus 45. My previous work would not benefit from a model like Mythos. If the models are going to keep getting better, and at this point I'm confident saying they are. I was wrong when I claimed that we were hitting a wall before. The models are getting better faster than we are. So we can't necessarily get better. So instead we have to go bigger.

克服“软件拟物化”:跳出工具与语言的身份囚笼

要实现“向更大规模进军”的目标,开发者首先必须克服自身的心理障碍与路径依赖。正如早期的iOS系统界面高度依赖模仿实体罗盘或皮革纹理的拟物化设计,直到iOS 7才彻底转向注重信息效率与交互本质的扁平化设计一样,当下的软件工程界也正处于其自身的“拟物化阶段”。我们极度迷恋那些源自几十年前的工具链:终端、SSH、Git、Vim,甚至在团队协作中为了传输一个隐藏的.env环境配置文件而额外构建一整套复杂的安全分发系统,却忽视了Git本身的局限性。

这种路径依赖甚至内化成了开发者的身份认同。我们习惯于用所掌握的编程语言来定义自己的技术层级(如“我是写JavaScript的”),或用特定的编辑器工具建立技术优越感。在AI赋能的新时代,这些曾经不可或缺的技能和界限正在迅速失效。此外,我们还深受沉没成本思维的毒害,即便某个PR逻辑并不是最优解,但因为成员耗费了数周时间,团队往往会出于“愧疚”而选择合并。而在AI智能体(Agent)的时代,这种由于人际沟通成本带来的妥协将不复存在,因为我们对智能体产出的低效代码可以毫无心理负担地予以废弃并重写。

Original English Source

In order to do that, we have to get over ourselves. This was really hard for me as someone who spent a long time writing software. Who here has written code for more than 10 years? I was using GNU screen and eventually T-Mox back in the day. I learned how to use those tools and SSH and Git before I even wrote code and those have all been really ingrained in my workflow. I think back to the old days in a weird way. Hear me out. You talk about iOS for a second. Who owned an iPhone 6 or have you guys written code for 10 years when a fourth of you are that old? I'm confused. Hopefully, you're all Android people or something. This is how iPhone apps used to look. You might notice it's different from how they look now. It looks less like an app and more like somebody took a picture of a compass and put it in the phone. This is how apps used to look. But now they look like this. And most people look at that and they're like, "Oh, that's an obvious downgrade. That's so much worse. Why would Apple ever do that? This is the downfall of Apple and the beauty of their design." I'm going to fight you guys on that. iOS 7 was Apple moving away from trying to convince you that these devices can replace the old reass. Apps had to be designed to convince you to use them, not to be useful. And iOS 7 represents the shift to not focusing on convincing you anymore. Apple won. By that point, everyone knew their iPhone could do all of these different things. The point of iOS 7 was to stop convincing and start embracing, start making a better interface. And this interface, as much as we might not like how it looks, it's so much more useful. You have clear indications of the difference between what direction you're walked on and where you're currently pointing. That red block is a super nice way to know that you're not in the direction you intend. The current direction you're facing is way clearer, too, with the giant 228 at the bottom. You just get way more info here than you did before. It's so much clearer. Even if we don't like it because it's not the thing we're used to, we got over it. We're currently in our skumorphic phase as software developers. Skeuomorphism is this design aesthetic trying to represent the way things used to look, the physical goods that we relied on, and trying to make them digital. We're doing this right now with software. terminal, but we pretend it does because the terminal is familiar. It's what we it's what we're used to. It's what we love. It's where we like to think of ourselves when we're thinking about coding. Who here is an aspiring Vim user that like wishes you could use Vim or even does deeply about our tools, the systems we pick, the frameworks, the languages. We like to think it all matters. And we've blinded ourselves in this. We think things that just don't make sense when you take one step back. Like, why can't we commit our environment files? It sounds stupid when I put on a slide like this, but I want you to really think about this for a second. When I have a team of engineers that are working on a project, why do I have to build another system to share this specific file, but all the other files can go and get just fine? It's dumb. It's just how Git was built because it was built for a very specific thing and then it took over our industry and it took over our brains and we aren't letting go of that. There's a lot of these things in our heads that we have to start fighting. We have to take the step back and think, is this how we do things because it's right or is this how we do things because it's just how we've always done it? And as you start to think more about this, you'll realize there are so many things that we do this with. Like why do we qualify ourselves by the languages we know? I used to think this was a junior thing. Like I can't tell you how many times I had a junior engineer I was talking to. I was like, "Oh, you're a coder. What languages do you write? I write JavaScript." I thought this was a junior problem. But then you talk to senior engineers, they're like, "Oh, he writes JavaScript. He's not a real developer. We care too much. We pride ourselves in these things. They're our identity. These weird facts, these weird choices, these things that feel essential just don't matter that much anymore." And they didn't then. and they matter less now. We got away with it because it was so hard to find engineers that we could just tell the company what we were doing and they couldn't really say no because the alternative is spend six months trying to hire someone else. They're not going to do that. And along that note, why are we so scared of deleting code? I cannot tell you how many times I've been in a conversation with someone where the solution is to just delete it and reset. But we have such a bad sunk cost mindset in this industry. We care so much about the code we wrote and we care so much about it still being there that I feel bad working with my team sometimes when somebody files a PR that isn't quite the right solution but they spent a week or two on it. Like who here has guilt merged a PR before where you just felt bad because somebody put a lot of work in. It's not quite the right thing but you merge it anyways because the alternative was a conversation you didn't want to have. Why do we do this to ourselves? One of the nice things about agents you don't have to feel bad when you shut down their work. But we we just care too much is the point I'm trying to make. And the things we care about are not necessarily the things that matter anymore. And I hope we can finally start to challenge some of these. Going to get a little more personal here by showing some of the ideas I've built because the goal here is that when you guys go out of this talk, you have a better mindset for coming up with ideas that make sense now by rejecting the things that made sense before.

级次滑移与“Markdown层”:重新定义项目边界

在AI能力的加持下,软件项目的边界和开发成本模型发生了颠覆性的级次滑移(Tier Shift: 技术进步导致项目开发门槛整体下降、各层级研发成本向下滑动一级的现象)。在传统的开发维度中,项目通常被划分为三个层级:底层的“业余项目”(如作者在2021年开发的OBS直播协作工具Ping)、中层的“创业公司”(如集成了身份验证与数据库的全栈云平台),以及顶层的“过于庞大而无法实现的目标”。然而现在,所有的层级都向下滑动了一级:曾经需要多名工程师研发数月的创业公司级产品,如今已缩水为单人即可搞定的业余项目。

更具革命性的是,金字塔的最底层诞生了一个全新的Markdown执行层(Markdown Tier: 将自然语言Markdown文件作为可执行脚本,通过大模型及定时任务直接运行复杂业务逻辑的轻量化架构)。在今天,许多初创公司的完整核心业务逻辑,其本质上完全可以用一个简单的Markdown文件来表达。通过将Markdown文件直接作为指令管道,输送给大语言模型进行解析并挂载到定时任务(Cron Job)中,就能实现复杂的自动化工作流。例如,一个用于审查GitHub代码仓库中所有PR并根据AI意见进行优先级排序的日常分析系统,不再需要编写数百行后端代码,而只需在Markdown中声明任务要求,设定每天早上九点运行,最终自动生成静态HTML并推送到Amazon S3生成访问链接。这种基于文档即代码(Doc-as-Code)的极简工程模式,正在以难以置信的速度重构自动化软件的定义。

至于金字塔最顶端那个“大到无法想象”的空缺,目前依然是一个谜。这意味着对于个人和小型团队而言,技术的上限已经被无限拓宽,我们必须不断向更深处探索,才能找到这个时代的真正极限。

Original English Source

These are three of the things that I have built or currently working on. We're going to go from the bottom updator with it was called Ping. I wanted to make it easier for live content creators to do high quality collaborations in the software they already used. OBS the full stack cloud is let's just imagine versel but it goes further each direction. They have off built in but they also have databases built in. These are all things that I benefit from existing so that I built in 2021. The top one I'm working on right now. These are also kind of tiers, different levels that we can build at. If I was to try and categorize them, I would call the bottom one side project, call the middle one startup, and call the top one too big. It just doesn't make sense. Well, this is how I would have categorized this even just a year ago. But things have changed. Now the models are bigger. The tiers have shifted. Everything is now one tier lower. And this is a crazy thing for me to process. The fact that what used to be a startup is now a side project. In fact, some of the startups I've talked to, even at an event like this, their whole startup could have arguably been a side project or this bottom tier, which there's a weird gap there. What's that? It's the G-rain tier. It's a markdown file. Do you know how many companies are at this event where their whole product could just be a markdown file? It's insane.

[applause] And like, okay, seriously though, the fact that you can now execute markdown by just piping it to codeex or claude is unbelievable. And I think most of us haven't fully appreciated how insane that is. I had a service that would triage all of my PRs, have them all get reviewed with AI, and then help me prioritize. That service is a markdown file. Now, I just literally wrote like go to these four GitHub repos, look at all the open PRs, figure out what the current status of the work is, and then help me prioritize it. And then when you're done, go update the static HTML file and send it to S3 and give me the URL. And every morning at 9:00 a.m., this runs on a cron. And around 9:15 to 9:20, my markdown file generates me my work for the day. can exist that are literally just a markdown file running on a chrome. But what about Okay, two more things I want to change about this though. First is the full stack cloud. This is mine. Don't do it. Like bid coming soon. Very excited. I wouldn't want to compete with me on this one. Trust me, it's going to be really cool. But there's still something else. There's a gap here. And I'm going to be real with you guys. I don't know what goes in this gap. I don't know what too big means anymore. Is it training your own model from scratch? Is it building your own operating system? Is it trying to compete with npm and node directly? I don't know. I don't know what too big is right now. And that's scary, but it's also exciting. It means I need to keep pushing myself to go bigger than makes sense in order to find these limits. But what does that even mean? What does it mean to think bigger in this scenario?

范围化竞争的崛起:挑战Slack、AWS与Salesforce

长久以来,业界普遍认为初创公司应当避开巨头的宽广产品线,选择在特定细分领域做深做透。例如,Vercel并不试图覆盖AWS的所有领域,而是专注于在全栈前端服务器这一垂直象限提供极其精细的深度特征(Depth: 针对特定垂直领域提供极其专业、精细的功能设计)。因为在过去,想要在广度上与拥有数千名工程师的巨头竞争无异于以卵击石。

然而,AI彻底打破了这一广度维度的垄断。如今,在业务覆盖广度上的范围化竞争(Range-based Competition: 借助大模型快速低成本地覆盖多个业务板块与水平维度的竞争策略)已经成为现实。凭借强大的提示词工程与模型理解力,一个开发者可以在一两天内为自身产品集成一个可用的数据库平台,并在产品广度上快速扩张。只要系统底层架构设计得当,即使在某些特定功能上存在缺失,用户也完全有能力利用AI工具自行开发补齐。正如Slack并非最完美的协作工具,但因其恰到好处的架构平台化和Slackbot API的易拓展性,使得用户可以非常方便地在其中部署各种AI智能体。现在的我们必须转换思维:不再追求单一功能的无限深耕,而是大胆地去挑战Salesforce、Slack乃至重构整个AWS服务。当前的开发上限早已不复存在,我们需要不断推进自身极限,去探索新秩序的边界。

Original English Source

I would argue that bigger is probably the wrong word for most of wider spectrum. And I'm sorry I have to do a diagram. If you watch my videos, you understand the range of things that your software covers and the depth is the number of features in a given area. Let's look at a company like Versell. Verscell does not offer all of the features that AWS does. They never will. It doesn't make sense. But Versell offers deep but Versel offers deeper features in the space they're in, which is full stack front-endleaning servers. If you're a front-end developer and you're not using Verscell, you're feeling some amount of pain because they're just further ahead with this. So much so that even the agents prefer it. And this was kind of how you had to build your startups. Because if you were competing with a company like AWS, you're never going to have all of the features they have. You're never going to cover the range that they cover. And it made no sense to try because you don't have the thousands of engineers they do doing that. At least you didn't. But now things have changed. All of a sudden that range is viable in a way that it never was before. I'm not saying you can build something as reliable as RDS. I'm saying that you can build a database platform into your product in a day or two of work with enough prompting and enough effort. And if you build your stuff right, if you play your cards correctly and you think about things the right way, you'll realize that you can build enough across a spectrum of things you care about to enable most users to at least start trying the thing. And when they have features they need in a given vertical that you don't support, it's not your problem as long as you build it right because they can build the features that are missing themselves. If you architect your systems and you architect your products in such a way that users can do things that they you never would have guessed like Slack accidentally did this because Slack is now the platform people run their agents in half the time which is crazy. Slack sucks. It's not a good product, but it's the right shape for people to build the features they want into it through the somewhat functional Slackbot API. This is all crazy because I'm basically sitting here telling you like it's time to compete with Slack. It's time to build your own AWS. It's time to challenge Salesforce directly. Not big enough. I think that's all I have to say. Thank you so much. AIE

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

公司/组织: Apple, AWS, Slack, Salesforce

产品/模型: Claude, Vercel, OBS, S3

关键字: ai-evolution software-engineering skeuomorphism agentic-workflow