广告战的透视镜
Michael Barbaro: 这里是《纽约时报》，我是迈克尔·巴尔巴罗（Michael Barbaro）。这是《The Daily》。[音乐]
英文原文
From the New York Times, I'm Michael Bubaro. This is the daily. [music]在俄亥俄州，一起震惊州长选战的恶毒攻击性广告引发了新的震荡。[音乐]
英文原文
>> In Ohio, there is new fallout from a vicious attack ad that has rocked the governor's race. [music]该广告甚至在共和党内部引发了分歧。如果你想知道副总统JD·万斯（JD Vance）对俄亥俄州长选战中的那个广告有何看法，[音乐] 他只说了两个字：别再抱怨了。
英文原文
>> The ad is causing riffs even within the Republican party. If you're wondering what Vice President JD Vance thinks about that ad in the Ohio governor's race, [music] well, he's got two words. Stop whining.当病态与绝望[音乐]相遇时，你就会看到这样的广告。过去几天里，随着俄亥俄州一则极具争议的电视商业广告[音乐]播出，今年秋季中期选举的背景杂音——竞选广告[音乐]——瞬间爆发进入公众视野。这则广告凸显了全国各地民主党和共和党候选人在[音乐]最后竞选阶段所讲述的截然不同的两种叙事。今天，全国政治记者谢恩·戈德马彻（Shane Goldmacher）[音乐]带我们走进美国历史上耗资最巨的中期选举广告战。[音乐]今天是10月26日星期一。谢恩，欢迎回到节目。
英文原文
>> When sick and desperate [music] meet each other, you get ads like this. Over the past few days, the background noise of this fall's midterm elections, campaign advertising [music] exploded into public consciousness because of a highly controversial TV [music] commercial in Ohio, which highlighted the two very different stories that Democratic and Republican candidates across the country are telling in the [music] final days of campaigning. Today, national political correspondent Shane Goldmacher [music] takes us inside the most expensive midterm ad [music] campaign in American history. It's Monday, October [music] 26th. Shane, welcome back to the show.感谢邀请我。
英文原文
>> Thanks for having me.不客气。那么，我有一个问题想问你。作为全国政治记者，你估计自己在这次中期选举中总共看了多少条竞选广告？给我一个大概数字就行。
英文原文
>> My pleasure. So, I have a question for you. In your role as national political correspondent, how many campaign ads do you estimate that you have watched for this midterm election? Just give me a number.天哪，成百上千条。是的，数百上千条电视广告。我就是那个主动订阅了每场国会选战中每一条新电视广告邮件通知的人。
英文原文
>> Oh man, hundreds. Yeah, hundreds and hundreds of TV ads. I am the person who has voluntarily signed up to get every new television ad in every congressional race emailed to me.那到底是一种什么样的景象？
英文原文
>> What does that even look like?就像我的收件箱彻底沦陷了一样。在这些中期选举中，任何地方投放的每一条广告都会直接发送给你——
英文原文
>> It looks like an obliteration of my inbox. you you get every single ad that runs anywhere in these midterms directly sent to you在众议院和参议院选战中。这并不意味着我会看遍所有广告，但在许多工作日结束时，我会专门抽出40分钟的时间，坐在那里忍受各政党在电视上播出的内容。
英文原文
>> in house and senate races. It doesn't mean I'm watching all of them, but I will at the end of many days take a chunk of time to just sit for 40 minutes and suffer through what the parties are putting on television.喝着[笑声]喝着啤酒，看一连串攻击性广告来放松。
英文原文
>> Unwind with [laughter] unwind with like a a bruski and a and a series of of attack ads.是的。
英文原文
>> Yes,你真是个自虐狂。那么，请解释一下你为什么要把这么多时间花在这上面。我们在历次竞选中多少都聊过这个话题，但我认为仍然值得重申：为什么你如此深地沉浸在美国竞选广告的领域——有时甚至是下水道里？我只是觉得，各竞选阵营花了大量时间思考要在这些广告里放些什么。他们把大部分资金花在数字广告和电视广告上。这就是他们向大众传递信息的方式，也是他们认为能帮助他们获胜的理念的最极致提炼。
英文原文
>> you're massochist. So, just explain why you spend so much of your time doing that. And we've talked about this a little bit through various campaigns, but but I think it bears repeating why you dwell in the land and sometimes the sewer of of American campaign advertising so meaningfully. I just think that campaigns spend an enormous amount of time thinking about what they're going to put in these ads. They spend the majority of their money on digital and television ads. That is how they communicate to people and that is the greatest distillation of what they think is their message and can help them win.当有人转向负面攻击时，你能明白那意味着什么。你能看出哪些议题正在引发共鸣，而且这些都在发生变化，对吧？广告的基调和主题在不同的选举周期之间是会变的。你可以看到一个竞选团队随着时间推移、随着越来越趋向负面攻击而变得更加绝望。当有人一开始就打负面牌，也许是因为他们处于落后。仅仅通过观看这些广告，你就能学到很多东西。当然，给许多人打电话、与许多人交谈，显然这也很重要。
英文原文
>> You can tell when somebody goes negative what that means. You can tell what issues are resonating and it changes, right? The tenor, the topics of the ads change from cycle to cycle. You can see a campaign get more desperate over weeks and months as they go more negative. When somebody starts negative, maybe they're behind. You learn so much just by watching. You call a lot of people, talk to a lot of people. That's important, too, obviously.但对我而言，这在某种程度上奠定了整场选举的情感基调。
英文原文
>> But this sort of sets the mood music of the entire election for me.没错。这就像是一张X光片。我想你过去曾对我说过，竞选广告是一张绝不说谎的X光片，它反映出竞选阵营抱有何种希望、担忧何种问题，以及他们认为选民在做些什么。
英文原文
>> Right. It's a It's an X-ray. I think you've said to me in the past, campaign ads are an X-ray that doesn't lie of what campaigns are hopeful of and worried about and what they think the electorate is up to.是的。而且你必须记住，这些电视广告是候选人和超级政治行动委员会（Super PAC）向最重要的一类选民介绍自己的机会——这类选民就是那些其实并不想关注竞选的人。那些忙于工作、忙于生活、对政治漠不关心的人。因此，竞选阵营耗费大量资金和精力去琢磨：到底哪一条信息可以在有人看橄榄球赛时强行灌输给他们？或者在YouTube片头广告里让他们不得不忍受，用来介绍你的候选人，传达“嘿，我是不一样的民主党人”或“我是不一样的共和党人”，或是说“我就是那个要为你们减税的人，或是要帮你们降低生活成本的人”？你知道，就是要挑出最想向那些对政治脱节的选民强调的那一件事——
英文原文
>> Yes. And you have to remember that these TV ads are the chance that candidates have and super PACs have to introduce themselves to the most important set of voters, which is people who don't actually want to pay attention to the campaign. People who are too busy working, too busy living their life, who are apathetic about politics. So campaign spend an enormous amount of money and energy figuring out what is the one message that you can force feed somebody while watching football. make them suffer through on YouTube pre-roll that introduces your candidate says hey I'm a different kind of Democrat or I'm a different kind of Republican or says I'm the guy who's going to cut your taxes the gal who's going to cut your costs you know picking which one thing you want to emphasize for those disengaged voters对，在很多很多的选战中，正是这些人起到了决定性作用，尤其是在整个中期选举期间我们与你以及同事们一直在讨论的许多胶着选战中。那么，让我们来聊聊两党在这次中期选举中讲述的叙事，特别是在选举这最后的疯狂一周左右的时间里。让我们先从民主党人在这些广告中所讲述的故事开始。
英文原文
>> right who in many many races become decisive especially in a lot of the tight tight races that we've been talking about with you with our colleagues throughout these midterms so let's talk about the stories that both parties are telling in this midterm election, especially in this frantic last week or so of this election. And let's start with a story that the Democrats have been telling in these ads.民主党的攻势：生活成本、腐败与“中间派”包装
我认为民主党人讲述的故事相当简单直接。他们正试图向选民勾勒唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的故事。
英文原文
>> I think that the story the Democrats are telling is pretty simple. They're trying to fill in for voters the story of Donald Trump.现在的你比[音乐]几年前过得更好吗？拯救美国只有一条路：选出足够多的[音乐]民主党人进入国会来阻止特朗普。
英文原文
>> Are you better off now [music] than you were a few years ago? There's one path to saving America. elect enough [music] Democrats to Congress to stop Trump.总统通常是每一场选举、特别是中期选举的主要驱动力，而他目前并不受欢迎。他们正试图告诉受众，为什么特朗普在国外的战争让纳税人每天耗费10亿美元在一场我们本不该参与的战争上；我们的学校在坍塌，工厂在关闭，汽油价格在飙升。他们讲述的故事是，特朗普曾承诺变革、改善经济、降低物价，而广告展示了他如何失败以及为何失败。这是一个在某些地方涉及关税、在另一些地方涉及伊朗战争、以及生活成本的故事。在伊朗的无休止战争每天耗费我们数十亿美元购买炸弹，让我们在加油机前承受沉重打击。
英文原文
>> The president typically is the lead driver of every election, of midterm elections in particular, and he's unpopular. And they're trying to tell the audience why Trump's war abroad costs taxpayers a billion dollars a day on a war we have no business fighting. Our schools crumble, our factories shutter, our gas prices skyrocket. And they're telling a story that Trump made promises of change to improve the economy, to lower prices, and telling how and why he failed. It's a story that includes tariffs in some places, the war in Iran and other places, the cost of living. The endless war in Iran is costing us all billions for bombs, brutal at our gas pumps.今年有一整类民主党的广告，都是民主党候选人站在加油站加油，或者特别是民主党人站在杂货店里说，唐纳德·特朗普辜负了你们。
英文原文
>> There's an entire genre of Democratic ads this year of Democratic candidates standing at a gas station pumping gas or in particular Democrats standing in a grocery store saying Donald Trump failed you.这就是为什么食品杂货这么贵。这就是为什么普通燃油要5美元、6美元一加仑。这是个很简单的叙事：唐纳德·特朗普曾承诺不再有新战争，结果却爆发了伊朗战争；人们看到了那场战争与物价上涨之间的直接联系。比如你刚采访过的民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科（James Talarico）。
英文原文
>> And that is why these groceries are so expensive. That is why this regular fuel costs $5, $6 a gallon. And it's a pretty simple story to tell. Donald Trump promised no new wars. Instead, there's a war in Iran. And people see the direct link between that war and these price increases. Someone you just interviewed, James Telerico, the Democrat.你确实听了我们的节目。
英文原文
>> You do listen to the show.确实听了。我听了。[笑声] 他在本次竞选周期投入资金最多的单条广告，基本上囊括了上述所有内容。
英文原文
>> I do. I do. [laughter] The single most expensive ad that he's put money behind this cycle features basically all of the above.我是詹姆斯·塔拉里科。[音乐]在州议会，我团结两党，让生活变得更能负担得起。在这则广告中，他一开始拿着一个装满杂货的棕色纸袋站在杂货店里，逐一列举所有如今价格过高的东西。
英文原文
>> I'm James Terico. [music] In the state house, I brought both parties together to make life more affordable. In this ad, he starts in a grocery store holding a brown bag of groceries and he tips through all the things that now costs too much.太多得克萨斯人觉得自己快要被淹没了。食品杂货的[音乐]成本、汽油、医疗保健。
英文原文
>> Too many Texans feel like they're drowning. The [music] cost of groceries, gas, healthcare.然后他走向自己的汽车——以此提醒汽油问题——并说道：“我们将努力削减成本。选我吧，这就是我要做的事。”
英文原文
>> Then he makes his way to his car, a reminder of gas, and says, "We're going to try to cut costs. Elect me. That's what I'm going to do."我支持这条信息，因为保持生活不陷入困境本不该这么艰难。
英文原文
>> I approve this message because it shouldn't be this hard to keep your head above water.我认为它试图迎合的是人们普遍感到自己正在落后、而某些精英阶层却在步步高升的心态。当民主党人谈论生活成本时，他们将其应用于极其广泛的方面。有相当一部分广告专门针对药品，尤其是药品定价。比如在爱荷华州，民主党人正在与共和党众议员阿什莉·辛森（Ashley Hinson）竞争。乔什·图尔克（Josh Turek）是民主党候选人，支持他的一家超级政治行动委员会制作了一则在药店拍摄的广告，其中出现了一连串民众，基本上都在说——
英文原文
>> And I think what it's trying to tap into is the broad sense that people feel like they're falling behind and somebody the elites are getting ahead. And when Democrats are talking about cost of living, they apply it to like a huge range of things. There have been a number of ads about drugs and drug pricing in particular. And so in Iowa, Democrats are running against Ashley Henson, who's a congresswoman. Josh Turk is the Democratic nominee. and a super PAC supporting him has an ad filmed in a drugstore with a series of people basically saying一切都变得更贵了——
英文原文
>> it's all more expensive贵得离谱，全是因为阿什莉·辛森。
英文原文
>> way more expensive because of Ashley Henson.物价变得更贵[音乐]，就是因为阿什莉·辛森。
英文原文
>> Things are more expensive [music] because of Ashley Henson.阿什莉·辛森从制药公司拿了超过16万美元，然后她投票[音乐]提高了我们的药品价格。他们把她与她接受的竞选捐款以及她的投票记录挂钩，指责她是人们去药店买药花费如此高昂的原因。
英文原文
>> Ashley Henson took over $160,000 from drug companies. Then she voted to [music] raise our prices. and they tie her to campaign contributions that she's taken, votes that she's taken, and saying she's the reason you pay so much when you go to the drugstore.她以前出卖过我们，以后还会出卖我们。[音乐]
英文原文
>> She's sold us out before and she'll sell us out again. [music]这则反辛森广告所采取的做法，正是民主党人在全美许多不同选战中都在做的事，那就是将腐败指控、将共和党的腐败直接与你个人的生活成本联系起来。
英文原文
>> responsible for what that anti-Hinson ad is doing is something that Democrats are doing all across the country in a lot of different races and that is directly tying accusations of corruption, Republican corruption to your personal cost of living.展开讲讲这一点。
英文原文
>> Say more about that.我的意思是，这并不是最直观的事情，对吧？人们想到腐败，可能会觉得是有人在收买华盛顿的某位总统或议员——
英文原文
>> I mean, it's not the most intuitive thing, right? People think about corruption and maybe somebody's buying and selling some president or lawmaker in Washington并让从中获益的人发大财。
英文原文
>> and making the person who benefits from it rich.是的。其核心思路是迎合人们那种自己正在掉队、而其他人——那些精英阶层，而非他们自己——正在占便宜的感受。
英文原文
>> Yes. And the idea is tapping into people's sense that they are falling behind and someone else, the elites, not them, is getting ahead.你在许多不同的领域都能看到这种情况：民主党人宣称：“国会里的这位共和党人正在发财致富，而正在不情愿地看这条广告的亲爱的观众，你却在变穷。你的消费能力正在下降，而且你有一个可以归咎的对象，那就是当权者。选择我们吧，尝试一些新的东西。”在民主党人看来，这似乎是将对他们非常有利的两个议题进行了一种相当巧妙的结合。是的，你在迎合人们对现有执政党的天然挫败感和愤怒，指责现实并没有好转，原因是他们腐败、只顾自己。特朗普是这次中期选举的情感基调。他虽然在很多广告中被提及——某某人百分之百投票支持总统——但腐败指控往往针对的是他们竞争对手所在的本地共和党人。不单单针对特朗普，而是借用了特朗普的政党及其带来的公众印象，说明那种腐败正在让你付出代价。不仅仅是因为他们腐败——因为你知道，焦点小组和民意调查显示，所有人都认为政客无一不腐败。
英文原文
>> And you see this in a slew of different spaces where Democrats are saying, "This Republican in Congress is getting rich and you, dear person watching this ad, unwillingly, you're getting poorer. That your spending power is going down and you have someone to blame. It's the people in power. Pick us. Try something new." This would seem on the part of Democrats to be a somewhat clever linking of two very good issues for them. Yeah. You're tapping into people's natural frustration and anger with the existing party in power and saying things aren't getting better for you. And the reason is that they are corrupt, that they are looking out for themselves. And Trump is the mood music of the midterms. He's not he is in a lot of these ads. such and such a person votes with the president a 100% of the time, but the corruption allegations tend to be about the local Republicans that they're running against. Not so much Trump, but it is tapping into Trump's party and the perceptions and that that corruption is costing you. It's not just that they're corrupt because, you know, focus groups and polls show everybody thinks everyone is corrupt.单靠指责腐败已经不够了。
英文原文
>> That's not enough anymore.远远不够了。差得远呢，对吧？大家都默认所有人都腐败，但民主党人强调的是：这些人的腐败实际上正在夺走你的金钱。
英文原文
>> It's not enough. No, it's not even close, right? Everyone presumes everyone's corrupt, but these people's corruption, they're saying, is actually costing you money.真是非常耐人寻味。
英文原文
>> Well, that's really, really interesting.而且很多地方是特朗普曾经可能受欢迎、但如今已不再受欢迎的地区。因此，主题就是他们所说的：要想找到一个百分之百认同你的人，照照镜子吧。那么，加布·埃文斯（Gabe Evans）[音乐]与谁百分之百一致呢？唐纳德·特朗普。
英文原文
>> And a lot of these places are places where Trump might have once been popular and he is no longer popular. And so, the theme is they say to find someone you agree with 100% of the time, look in the mirror. So, who did Gabe [music] Evans agree with 100% of the time? Donald Trump. on.你知道，加布·埃文斯百分之百与特朗普同调投票。
英文原文
>> You know, Gabe Evans votes with Trump 100% of the time.杰夫·克兰克（Jeff Crank），他百分之百跟随唐纳德·特朗普投票。
英文原文
>> Jeff Crank, he votes with Donald Trump 100% of the time.迈克·柯林斯（Mike Collins）是个死心塌地的特朗普狂热分子和MAGA极端主义者。他百分之百与特朗普一同投票。
英文原文
>> Mike Collins is a ride-or die Trump fanatic and MAGA extremist. He's voted with Trump 100% of the time.简·希金斯（Jen Higgins），她简直被特朗普耍得团团转。
英文原文
>> Jen Higgins, she is a fool for Trump.在这些特朗普不受欢迎的摇摆选区里，你一次又一次看到这种与特朗普投票一致的百分比。他们无需提出更复杂的论据，他们只需说：这位国会议员、这位参议员与特朗普站在一起，
英文原文
>> You see this over and over percentage of time they vote with Trump in these swing districts where Trump is unpopular. They don't have to make a more complicated argument. They say this member of Congress, this senator is with Trump,而不是[嗤之以鼻]与——
英文原文
>> not [snorts] with你不赞同特朗普。那就投票给民主党人吧。你在缅因州也能看到这一幕。
英文原文
>> you are not with Trump. Vote for the Democrat. You see this in Maine.苏珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）[音乐]投下了关键一票，支持特朗普削减联邦医疗保险（Medicare）和联邦医疗补助（Medicaid）。
英文原文
>> Susan Collins [music] was the deciding vote for Trump's cuts to Medicare and Medicaid.有广告指责苏珊·柯林斯，称她[音乐]就和特朗普一模一样。
英文原文
>> There are ads about Susan Collins saying she's just like [music] Trump.她起草了特朗普的法案，在没有任何限制、没有任何约束的情况下增加了对美国移民及海关执法局（ICE）的拨款。
英文原文
>> She wrote Trump's bill to increase ICE funding with no restrictions, no restraints.她虽然名声在外不同，随着时间推移也许有所变化，但她有X%的投票与特朗普一致。柯林斯与特朗普的投票一致率大概有96%，而且她正在伤害缅因州。
英文原文
>> She has a different reputation. She might have changed over time, but she votes with Trump x% of the time. Collins has voted with Trump maybe 96% of the time and she's hurting Maine.在一个又一个州，都是85%、93%、99%、100%追随特朗普投票。
英文原文
>> In state after state, it's 85% 93% 99% 100% voting with Trump.在民主党人看来，这在某些情况下足以构成对共和党候选人的控诉：你和这个人站在一起，而他是如此不受欢迎，他还导致了所有这些物价上涨。这就足够了。在唐纳德·特朗普不受欢迎的地区，这是最常用的手段。然而，民主党人要赢得参议院多数，面临的挑战在于他们必须在那些特朗普谈不上受欢迎、但也绝非令人避之不及到成为全党包袱的地方获胜。正是在这些地方，民主党人必须表现得更有创意一些。他们必须设计出能把自己宣传为“不一样的民主党人”的广告。
英文原文
>> And that is seen by Democrats in some cases as a sufficient indictment of the Republican candidate. You're with this guy. He's so unpopular. He presided over higher costs of all these things. Done. This is the go-to in a place where Donald Trump is unpopular. The challenge for Democrats is to win the Senate, they have to win places where he's not really popular, but he's not so unpopular that he's an albatross for the party. And it's in those places where the Democrats have to get a little bit more creative. they have to come up with an ad that sells them as a different kind of Democrat比如？
英文原文
>> such as我想最好的例子大概是亚当·汉密尔顿（Adam Hamilton）。他在堪萨斯州领导着当地规模最大的教堂，是该州的民主党参议员候选人。极少有人曾预料到这个州会演变成激烈的竞争。
英文原文
>> So I think maybe the best example is Adam Hamilton who leads the largest church in Kansas is the Democratic nominee in a state that very few people expected to be highly competitive very competitive.是的，在这个近一个世纪没有民主党人赢得过参议院席位的州，如今被大多数政治预测机构列为胜负难分的摇摆州。
英文原文
>> Yeah. A state where Democrats haven't won a Senate seat in almost a century and now it is ranked as a tossup by most political prognosticators.亚当·汉密尔顿的竞选基调非常明确：我不是你们传统意义上的民主党人。
英文原文
>> And Adam Hamilton's campaign is very much, I'm not your typical Democrat.在堪萨斯，我们正好地处全美最正中的腹地，[音乐]西部。
英文原文
>> Here in Kansas, we're right smack dab in the middle of the country, [music] the West.他早期投放的一则广告中，毫不夸张地说，就是他本人站在一块农田的正中央，说道：“我们正好地处国家的正中心，而那也正是我所处的位置。”
英文原文
>> And one of the ads he did early on, it was literally him standing in the middle of a field saying, "We're right in the middle of the country, and that's where I am.我们必须通过相向而行、寻求中间妥协[音乐]来修复我们破碎的政治体制。
英文原文
>> We have to fix our broken politics [music] by meeting in the middle."支持亚当·汉密尔顿竞选参议员。是时候换个新面貌了。
英文原文
>> Adam Hamilton for Senate. It's time for something different.我在政治立场上处于中间派——而“民主党”这个词，在整则广告里根本没出现。中间派。你看完那则广告，几乎完全不知道汉密尔顿到底是以民主党人、共和党人、还是外星人候选人的身份在参选。
英文原文
>> I'm middle politically, and the word Democrat, not in this ad. Middle. You can watch that ad and have literally no idea whether Hamilton is running as a Democrat, a Republican, or like a candidate from Mars.是的。尽管特朗普不受欢迎，民主党人也面临着风险：他们需要那些不喜欢民主党人的选民投票给他们，或者至少不去投票。
英文原文
>> Yeah. And this is for all of Trump's unpopularity. This is the risk for Democrats is they need voters to vote for them or to not vote who don't like Democrats.爱泼斯坦档案与共和党选民打压战术
所以这些竞选不仅仅关乎单一一派。民主党人不只是在争取选票，他们也在试图打击共和党选民的热情。他们在堪萨斯等地使用的工具之一就是杰弗里·爱泼斯坦（Jeffrey Epstein）。
英文原文
>> So these races are not just about one party. The Democrats aren't just trying to win votes. They're trying to get Republicans unenthusiastic. And one of the tools they're using in Kansas and elsewhere is Jeffrey Epstein.这是历史上最恶劣的虐童丑闻之一。数十名年轻女孩遭到杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的[音乐]性拐卖。
英文原文
>> It was one of the worst child abuse scandals in history. Dozens of young girls sexually trafficked [music] by Jeffrey Epstein.全国民主党阵营在这场选战中投放的第一则广告，
英文原文
>> The first ad coming in from national Democrats in this race.马歇尔投票支持继续封存爱泼斯坦档案。
英文原文
>> Marshall voted to keep the Epstein files sealed.广告内容与唐纳德·特朗普无关，而是将那里的共和党现任议员与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦联系起来。
英文原文
>> Was not about Donald Trump. It was about linking the Republican incumbent there to Jeffrey Epste.罗杰·马歇尔（Roger Marshall）利用其公职庇护恋童癖。[音乐]他不配留在参议院。广告指责他阻止公开爱泼斯坦档案。这一策略非常明确，似乎就是针对那些如果去投票就会投给共和党的人，让他们产生“唉，我对共和党太失望了”的情绪。曾是特朗普宣称“爱泼斯坦档案里藏着见不得人的东西”；曾是特朗普和共和党人宣称“我们要公开这些档案”。然而当他们掌权后，却试图阻止爱泼斯坦档案被公开。在共和党的MAGA阵营中出现了一场切实的抗议，可以说是针对唐纳德·特朗普最早的抗议之一，充满沮丧和失望。是他自己的政党在这个议题上反对他。而民主党人正试图揭开这块伤疤，狠狠刺痛它。
英文原文
>> Roger Marshall used his office to protect pedophiles. [music] He doesn't belong in the Senate. saying he had blocked the release of the Epstein files. And this tactic very much seems to be about taking Republicans who might vote Republican if they voted and saying, "Gh, I'm unhappy with the Republican party." It was Trump who had said, "There's something hidden in the Epstein files." It was Trump and the Republicans who had said, "We're going to release the files." And then they came into power and they were trying to stop the Epstein files from being released. And there was a real revolt, really one of the first revolts from the MAGA-wing of the party, frustrated, disappointed with Donald Trump. It was his own party objecting to him over this issue. And Democrats are trying to take that that little scab and jab it open.那么，民主党人在像堪萨斯这样的地方投放广告，将共和党对手描绘成庇护杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的人，其目的并不像表面看起来那么简单——即仅仅是将爱泼斯坦与那些候选人绑在一起。虽然可能有这一层意思，但按照你的说法，其核心目的在于告诉那些本就对爱泼斯坦丑闻感到愤怒的共和党选民：他们的党在这个问题上辜负了他们，他们应该对整个共和党彻底失望，或许干脆放弃投票。我的意思是，广告虽然没有直接这么说，但那就是预期的效果：去触达那些可能不会支持民主党的人，让那些共和党人发自内心地对自己所在的党感到厌烦恶心。
英文原文
>> So what Democrats achieve by running ads painting their Republican opponents in a place like Kansas as protecting Jeffrey Epstein is not what you might think it is on its face, which is just to tie Epstein to those candidates. It might be that, but you're saying it's about telling Republican voters who were always upset about Epstein that their party hasn't gotten that right and that they should be disappointed in the entire Republican party and perhaps just not even vote. I mean, it doesn't sound like they're saying that directly, but that's the intended outcome. It's to reach out to voters who might not go for the Democrat and it's to get that Republican to just feel honestly kind of just crappy about their party.是的。我想用一种略微复杂的方式来解释这一点：我是在以30秒为增量看这些广告，
英文原文
>> Yeah. I mean, I want to explain this in a kind of complicated way, which is I'm watching these ads in 30-second increments,但竞选团队是在构建一个完整的叙事。
英文原文
>> but the campaigns think about them in a story.广告从一处展开，在[音乐]另一处收尾。爱泼斯坦相关的素材恰好契合这一更大的叙事弧线，因为它同样关乎[音乐]那些你托付权力的当权者，把利益给了所谓的精英阶层，而不是留给你。
英文原文
>> They start with one thing, they end [music] somewhere else. And the Epstein stuff fits into this broader story because it's also about [music] people who you trusted to put in power doing something for the quote unquote elites and not for you.这在[音乐]严格意义上并不完全等同于腐败，但如果将其视为一个更广泛的故事脉络，它就是其中的一部分，而且显然是为了让那些理想破灭的共和党人[音乐]在当下继续感到幻灭。这构筑了一种心理许可架构：“你在2024年投票支持了共和党人，但结果如何呢？令人失望透顶。[音乐]试试我们吧；如果不愿尝试我们，那就什么都别选。”
英文原文
>> It's not really quite corruption in the [music] same way, but if you think about this as a broader story arc, it's a piece of it and it's a piece that is clearly aimed at getting those disillusioned Republicans to [music] stay disillusioned right now. It's a permission structure. You voted for Republicans in 2024, but guess what? It's been a disappointment. [music] Try us out. And if you don't try us out, don't try anything at all.是的。
英文原文
>> Yeah.好的。谢恩，我们稍作休息。休息回来后，会有更多广告。[笑声]我们会看到不同类型的广告。回来后，我们将探讨共和党人在其中期选举宣传中[音乐]所讲述的故事。我们马上[音乐]回来。
英文原文
>> All right. Well, Shane, we're going to take a quick break. We come back, more ads. We're going to [laughter] different kinds of ads. When we come back, we're going to talk about the story that Republicans [music] are telling in their midterm advertising. We'll be right [music] back.共和党的防守与突围：税收政绩、跨党派解绑与关税分歧
谢恩，现在来谈谈共和党的广告宣传以及共和党人所讲述的故事。我很想知道，在所有这些广告宣传中，共和党人究竟在多大程度上是以他们过去两年的执政记录作为竞选立足点的。我们开头讨论了很多有趣的广告，但我认为必须指出，有些最有效的广告其实平淡无奇，那些广告提出了一个非常明确的主张：特朗普上任后为你们削减了税收。
英文原文
>> Shane, talk now about the Republican advertising and the story that Republicans are telling. I'm curious how much Republicans are actually running on their record of governance over the past two years in all this advertising. So, we've started by talking about a lot of the ads that are interesting, but I do think it's important to note that some of the most effective ads are boring, and those ads make a pretty plain case that Trump came in and he cut your taxes,事实也确实如此。
英文原文
>> which he did.他确实做到了。2025年那项所谓的“宏大而优美”的法案包含了大规模减税措施。他们突出了其中在民调中单独提出来时非常受欢迎的某些具体条款。在得克萨斯州南部，有一位竞选连任的国会女议员莫妮卡·德·拉·克鲁兹（Monica De La Cruz）。她有一则广告可以说是这方面的完美缩影。
英文原文
>> He did. That the quote unquote big, beautiful bill in 2025 had massive tax cuts. And they highlight some of the specific elements in it that are popular when pulled out in polling. There is a congresswoman running for reelection in South Texas, Monica de la Cruz. She has an ad that is sort of the perfect encapsulation of this如今生活成本更高了，但你们送我进国会就是为了解决[音乐]这个问题的。
英文原文
>> today. Life costs more, but you sent me to Congress to do something [music] about it.她身处一家餐馆，人们正在做玉米饼，她穿过餐馆，逐一列举这项非常具体的法案所取得的各项成果。
英文原文
>> She's in a restaurant. They're making tortillas and she's walking through the restaurant and ticking through all the different things that have been achieved by this very specific piece of legislation.小费不征税。[音乐] 加班费不征税。每年为你的口袋增加最多达1.1万美元。[音乐]
英文原文
>> No tax on tips. [music] No tax on overtime. up to 11,000 [music] more in your pocket every year.这就是共和党人的叙事：是民主党人和拜登总统推高了物价，而他们一直在逐步化解这一难题，他们只是需要更多时间来完成工作。
英文原文
>> And so this is the Republican story that it was the Democrats and President Biden who drove up the cost and that they've been chipping away at this problem and that they just need more time to finish the job.我推测，在特朗普第二任期进行到第二年的时候，这个理由讲起来相对困难。执政党在中期选举中几乎总是落败，这是有原因的，因为这通常是一个很难立足的理由。所以——
英文原文
>> I suspect that that is a relatively tough case to make two years into this second Trump term. I mean, there's a reason that the party in power almost always loses in midterm elections. It's because that's generally a tough case to make. And so,我们努力过了。我们正在努力。
英文原文
>> we tried. We're trying.是的，我们正在努力。“完成这项工作”恰恰也是乔·拜登曾经想用的原话，而如今共和党人也在使用这句话。没错，都是别人的错，我们已经尽力做到了最好，再多给我们一点时间吧。但对某些共和党人而言，这还远远不够。你在他们的广告中看到的是一种宣传自己具有两党合作精神的说辞，表明他们并非百分之百认同唐纳德·特朗普。喝着拉巴特啤酒，看着红翼队比赛，老兄，没有什么比这更具密歇根特色了。
英文原文
>> We Yeah, we're trying. I mean, finish the job was literally a phrase that Joe Biden also wanted to use. And it's a phrase the Republicans are using now, too. Right. It's the other people's fault. We've done as best as we could. Just give us a little bit more time. But for some Republicans, that's not quite enough. And what you're seeing in their ads is a pitch that they're actually bipartisan, that they don't agree with Donald Trump 100% of the time. Drinking a lab and watching the Red Wings, man, it just doesn't get any more Michigan than that.我认为对我来说最突出的例子是密歇根州共和党参议员候选人迈克·罗杰斯（Mike Rogers）。这是一场对抗民主党人阿卜杜勒·赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）的关键选战。
英文原文
>> And I think the one that stands out most to me is Mike Rogers, the Republican nominee for Senate in Michigan. A critical race against a Democrat Abdul Elsa.在密歇根，我们深知加拿大不是我们的敌人。
英文原文
>> And here in Michigan, we know that Canada is not our enemy.[音乐]
英文原文
>> [music]关税在密歇根是一个举足轻重的大问题。底特律过一座桥就是加拿大。所以在这一广告中，你会看到迈克·罗杰斯坐在酒吧里，手里拿着一瓶拉巴特牌加拿大啤酒。
英文原文
>> And tariffs are a big deal in Michigan. Detroit, you're just over a bridge to Canada. And so in this ad, you see Mike Rogers sitting at a bar holding a lab, a Canadian beer.我们必须立刻终止这场关税战。
英文原文
>> We need to end this tariff war now.强调我们必须立刻结束这场关税战。
英文原文
>> Saying we need to end this tariff war now.提都没提特朗普的名字。
英文原文
>> Doesn't say Trump's name.绝口不提特朗普。
英文原文
>> No Trump's name.也没说是谁开征了那些关税，但所有在密歇根看电视的人都心知肚明。
英文原文
>> Doesn't say who instituted those tariffs, but everybody watching in Michigan will get it.是的。他同样没有提及自己是共和党人，对吧？这与亚当·汉密尔顿的那则广告如出一辙。他没有说：“我是迈克·罗杰斯，我是共和党人，选我吧，以便我让唐纳德·特朗普继续执政。”相反，屏幕上的字幕打出的是：“团结两党。顺便说一句，我的对手太自由派、太极端了。请把票投给我，一个愿意在关税问题上与特朗普决裂的人。”
英文原文
>> Yes. Also not saying that he's a Republican, right? the inverse of that Adam Hamilton ad. He's not saying, "I'm Mike Rogers. I'm a Republican. Vote for me so I can keep Donald Trump in power." Instead, the the text on the screen is, "Bring both parties together. And by the way, my opponent is too liberal, too extreme. Vote for me, the guy willing to break with Trump on tariffs."在本次中期选举中有多少共和党人在投放这种类型的广告？基本上，你可以沿着特朗普支持率走低的轨迹，看到越来越多的共和党人开始投放吹捧自己具备跨党派合作能力的广告。
英文原文
>> How many Republicans are running that kind of ad in these midterms? You can basically track Trump's approval rating as it's gone down and see a growing number of Republicans start to run ads touting their bipartisanship.我曾与民主党人[音乐]和共和党人携手合作把事情办成。
英文原文
>> I've worked with Democrats [music] and Republicans to get things done.今年早些时候，我在爱荷华州参加了共和党众议员扎克·纳恩（Zach Nunn）的一场活动，JD·万斯当时也出席了。如今如果你去看扎克·纳恩的广告——
英文原文
>> I was in Iowa earlier this year at an event for Zack Nun Republican in Congress that JD Vance went to. And now if you watch Zack Nun's ads,扎克·纳恩是国会中第三位最跨党派[音乐]的议员。他到处奔走宣称：“我跨越了党派界限。六个月前，紧随共和党主流路线可能还是个好主意；如今，展现跨党派立场才更具优势。”
英文原文
>> Zack Nun is the third most [music] bipartisan member of Congress. He's walking around saying, "I crossed party lines and 6 months ago it might have been okay to be more in line with the main line of the Republican party. Now it's advantageous to be more bipartisan."双方都在互相攻击。[音乐] 双方都在制造不可开交的混乱。
英文原文
>> Both sides throwing out attacks. [music] Both sides creating one heck of a mess.爱荷华州的参议员候选人阿什莉·辛森也投放了多条大谈跨党派合作的广告。
英文原文
>> Ashley Henson, the Senate candidate in Iowa, running a number of ads talking about bipartisanship.在广告里看这挺好笑，但在华盛顿可不好笑。[音乐] 要想在那里做成实事，你就必须把大家凝聚在一起。她以母亲的身份出现在厨房里，她的孩子们真的在互扔食物打闹。
英文原文
>> It's funny in a commercial, but not in Washington. [music] To get stuff done out there, you got to bring folks together. She's a mom in her kitchen and she has her kids literally having a food fight.她说道，两党现状就像这样，一团混乱，而我们可以让人们团结起来。
英文原文
>> And she's saying that's both parties. That's a mess. We can bring people together.我是阿什莉·辛森，我支持这则信息，因为既然我的儿子们偶尔也能和睦相处，华盛顿[音乐]也可以。
英文原文
>> I'm Ashley Hson and I approve this message because if my boys can get along sometimes, so [music] can Washington.或许最具代表性的人物是缅因州的苏珊·柯林斯。
英文原文
>> Maybe the number one person is Susan Collins in Maine.想要了解真正的苏珊·柯林斯吗？
英文原文
>> Want to know who Susan Collins really is?苏珊·柯林斯[音乐]在卡里布长大，小时候还去挑过土豆。多年来，她一直塑造一种与特朗普主义和传统共和党主义有明显区隔的个人品牌。
英文原文
>> Susan Collins [music] grew up in Caribou and she picked potatoes as a kid. who for years has run as a sort of distinct brand from Trumpism and Republicanism.柯林斯参议员[音乐]顶住了本党的压力，投票维护国会批准长期军事冲突的权力。
英文原文
>> Senator [music] Collins stood up to her own party, voting to protect Congress's power to authorize extended military conflicts.她宣称：“我是苏珊·柯林斯。你们了解我，我是跨党派的，我跨越党派界限工作，我为缅因州办实事。我和华盛顿的那些共和党人不一样。”所以在这些广告里，“跨党派”成了一种暗号，意思是：即使在这个MAGA共和党时代，即使在总统民望如此低迷的时代，我也是你可以信任的那种共和党人；因为如果我使用这个词，就说明我愿意与特朗普保持距离。
英文原文
>> And she's saying, "I'm Susan Collins. You know me. I'm bipartisan. I work across the lines. I get things done for Maine. I'm not like the Republicans in Washington." So bipartisan in these ads is code for I'm the kind of Republican even in this era of MAGA Republicanism, even in this era when the president is so unpopular that you can trust because if I use that word, I'm willing to move away from Trump.是的，这在偏蓝的紫州是说得通的。你在缅因州看到这种现象并不令人吃惊。但耐人寻味的是在爱荷华州这样特朗普三次大选均获胜的州也看到了同样的情形。这足以说明政治气候对共和党人而言已经恶化到了何种地步。
英文原文
>> Yes, this makes sense in these bluish purple states. You're not surprised to see that in Maine. But what is interesting is seeing it in places like Iowa, states that President Trump won all three times. That's what tells you the political climate has deteriorated for Republicans.共和党的进攻战术：文化战争与极端人身攻击
嗯。好吧。你目前所描述的听起来大部分是在防守。但我的感觉是，共和党在这次竞选中也有大量处于纯攻势的广告。在全美各大选战中，几乎很难找到哪个地方共和党人没有针对其民主党对手投放大量攻击性广告，因为共和党自身的品牌形象眼下已经受损。因此，他们不想让你只关注他们自己，或者关注他们与特朗普之间的距离。他们想要将民主党人妖魔化、彻底剥夺其候选资格。
英文原文
>> Mhm. Okay. What you're describing so far sounds largely defensive. But my sense is that there's no shortage of Republican advertising in this campaign that is very much on the offense. I would be hardressed to think of a major race in this country where Republicans are not running a lot of ads about their Democratic opponents because the Republican brand is damaged right now. And so they don't want you to think just about them or their distance from Trump. They want to demonize and disqualify the Democrats.他们想要开放边境、给非法移民免费医疗、让男性[音乐]进入女更衣室——
英文原文
>> They want open borders, free healthcare for illegals, men [music] in girls locker rooms,还想把暴力罪犯释放。指责他们过于极端，指责他们过于激进。
英文原文
>> and wants to set violent criminals free. Call them too extreme. Call them too radical.废除警察？这太荒唐了。
英文原文
>> F the police. That's crazy.援引他们的政策立场，把他们描绘得令人恐惧。
英文原文
>> Cite their policy positions. Make them seem scary.他到底还在隐瞒什么？
英文原文
>> What else is he hiding?最关键的是，把所有人统统归入一个大标签之下——
英文原文
>> And more than anything, under one big umbrella,贾内尔·斯特尔森（Janelle Stelson）、亚当·汉密尔顿、查尔斯·布克（Charles Booker）——
英文原文
>> Janelle Stelson, Adam Hamilton, Charles Booker,就是太自由派了。
英文原文
>> just too liberal.太自由派。
英文原文
>> Too liberal.对肯塔基来说太自由派了，[音乐]对宾夕法尼亚太自由派了，对堪萨斯太自由派了。这句话在广告中接二连三、反复出现。而且再次强调，无论在众议院还是参议院，大量的竞争战场都位于传统保守的选区或州，那些曾投票支持唐纳德·特朗普的地方。
英文原文
>> Too liberal for Kentucky, [music] for Pennsylvania, for Kansas. That phrase is in ad after ad after ad. And again, so much of this battlefield in both the House and the Senate is in traditionally conservative districts or states, places that did vote for Donald Trump.所以这种策略往往很见效。
英文原文
>> And so it's often effective.得克萨斯州的每一位母亲都应该为詹姆斯·塔拉里科感到担忧。今年按资金投入计算播出次数最多的广告，正是在得克萨斯州针对塔拉里科的攻击性广告，其手法如出一辙。
英文原文
>> Every mom in Texas should be worried about James Telerico. The ad that has aired more than any other ad by dollars this year is an attack ad on Terico in Texas that does exactly this.詹姆斯·塔拉里科支持对不支持子女进行性别转变的父母以虐待儿童罪起诉。
英文原文
>> James Terico supports parents being charged with child abuse if they do not support transitioning their children.广告中一位五个孩子的母亲宣称，他在跨性别问题上彻底脱离了主流。她语带警告地说：“如果你关心自己的孩子，
英文原文
>> It is a mother of five saying he is outside the mainstream specifically on the trans issue. And she says pretty ominously, "If you care about your children,就不要投票给詹姆斯·塔拉里科。
英文原文
>> do not vote for James Terico.绝不要投给詹姆斯·塔拉里科。”
英文原文
>> Do not vote for James Terico."这契合了整整一个类型的广告套路，即母亲们在厨房里担忧民主党人走得太偏左。但随着选举临近，你往往会看到一些更加黑暗、更具个人攻击色彩的内容。
英文原文
>> And it fits into a whole genre of ads, which is sort of moms and kitchens worried about Democrats going too far left. But as we get closer to the election, you see often something a little bit darker and more personal.请解释一下。
英文原文
>> Explain.我想眼下大家都在讨论的广告出自俄亥俄州。我叫唐娜·阿瑟（Donna Arthur），我是艾米·阿克顿（Amy Acton）[音乐]的母亲。
英文原文
>> I mean, I think the ad that everyone's been talking about is in Ohio. My name is Donna Arthur and I'm Amy [music] Actton's mother.在州长选战中，维韦克·拉马斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）引用了其对手艾米·阿克顿亲生母亲的证言，指责其女儿是个骗子、不可信任。[音乐]
英文原文
>> In the governor's race where Vive Ramas Swami is featuring testimony from the mother of his opponent Amy Actton, basically calling her daughter a liar and saying she can't be trusted. [music]她一辈子都在撒谎。我的女儿需要帮助，如果她连自己都需要帮助，她就无法[音乐]帮助你们。不要投票给撒谎的人。不要让她成为你们的州长。
英文原文
>> She's lied her entire life. My daughter needs help and she can't [music] help you if she needs help herself. Don't vote for people who lie. Don't let her become your governor.但这则广告完全隐瞒了艾米·阿克顿为何与其母亲断绝关系的背景真相。
英文原文
>> But what this ad leaves out entirely is the backstory about why Amy Actton's mother is estranged from her daughter.把那个来龙去脉讲给我们听听。
英文原文
>> Just just tell us that story.艾米·阿克顿表示，她们从她12岁起就再没说过话。这是因为她母亲失去了对她和她哥哥两人的抚养权，竞选团队提供的文件显示，她的继父曾因强奸她而遭到起诉。天哪。
英文原文
>> So Amy Actton says they have not spoken since she was 12. And that's because her mother lost custody of both her and her brother and that documents provided by the campaign show that her stepfather had been indicted on charges of raping her. Wow.她的继父当时拒不认罪，并在审判前潜逃离开了该州。
英文原文
>> Her stepfather pled not guilty and he fled the state before a trial.这么说，广告里的这个人，也就是她的母亲，曾嫁给了被指控强奸她女儿的那个男人。
英文原文
>> And so the person in this ad, her mom was married to the man who allegedly raped her.是的。如今她突然出现在电视广告里负责旁白。这则广告引发了轩然大波。该州的共和党州长已公开呼吁撤下该广告。全美各地的多位共和党人都表示：“这已经越界了。为什么要利用有着此类过往指控的疏远家庭成员，来对别人的人品提出质疑？”因此，这种手段正是你在竞选处于某种绝望、阴暗的最后几周所看到的情形。该广告引发的后果似乎成为了一个典型案例，说明当一个竞选团队决定采取如此极端的人身负面攻击时会发生什么——这可能会招致极其惊人的反噬，甚至连你自己的政党最终都会站出来谴责你。我认为这是一则罕见的产生如此破坏效应的广告。但共和党人担忧的是，这一事件所引发的关注不仅可能损害拉马斯瓦米本人，还可能连累该州整个共和党候选阵营——而该州对于参议院席位至关重要，且至少有一场关键的众议院选战。
英文原文
>> Yeah. And and suddenly is narrating a TV ad. And this ad has caused a firestorm. The state's Republican governor has called for it to be taken down. Numerous Republicans across the country have said, "This crosses a line. Why use ar estranged family members with these kinds of allegations in their past to raise questions about somebody's character? And so this is the kind of thing that you see a campaign do in these sort of desperate, darker, last weeks of a race. The fallout from this ad would seem to be a kind of case study for what can happen when a campaign decides to go this personally negative that it can backfire kind of spectacularly and even your own party ends up denouncing you. I think this is a rare ad that has done it. Its damage, but the fear that Republicans have is the attention on this isn't just going to potentially damage Ramas Swami, but the entire Republican ticket in a state that is crucial for the Senate and also has at least one key House race.那么谢恩，退一步来看，共和党在各个层面的整体策略似乎是：捍卫自己的立法成就，吹嘘这些政绩，宣称“我们实际做成的事比你们意识到的还要多”；如果选民不买账，那就与特朗普拉开距离；如果这依然不够，那就彻底亮出板斧，狠狠砍向对手。
英文原文
>> So Shane, stepping back, it seems like the Republican strategy in all its components is to defend their legislative accomplishments. Brag about them. Say, "We've actually done more than you might realize." And if you don't buy that, then distance yourself from Trump. And if that's insufficient, really just like take out the hatchet and hurl it at your opponent.是的。我认为你甚至可以把共和党的策略简化为与民主党进行对比，对吧？共和党人清楚特朗普总统并不受欢迎。他们竭力避免选民仅仅因对特朗普的不满、因对国家发展方向的不满而给共和党算总账。选民知道共和党目前处于掌权地位。因此共和党人强调：“把这看作是与那些可怕的民主党人之间的对比。我们在所有事情上并非都与特朗普绑在一起。我们确实为你们办了实事。请在两者之间做比较——”
英文原文
>> Yeah. I think that you can even simplify the Republican strategy to compare us to the Democrats, right? The Republicans know that President Trump is unpopular. They are desperate for voters to not just think about Republicans because they don't like Trump. They don't like the direction of the country. They know Republicans are in power. And they're saying, "Consider this a contrast between these scary Democrats. We're not all aligned with Trump on everything. We did do some things for you. just make this a comparison because是在共和党候选人与对手之间对比，而不是特朗普与对手之间，而是我们与我们的对手——
英文原文
>> between us, not Trump and and our rivals, but us and our rivals因为如果是单纯对共和党进行支持或反对的公投，结果一定是反对，对吧？我们从民调中可以看出，针对共和党的基本面是下行的。在几乎任何一个关键地区，共和党的支持率都无法超过50%。但是，如果你问“相较于一个社会主义者，你对共和党人的看法如何？”，他们希望选民在投票时能从这种对比的角度去思考。这就是所有那些广告合在一起所讲述的故事。在某种程度上，把这场选举看作是一场抉择性的选举。
英文原文
>> because if if it's an up or down on the Republicans, it's a down, right? We see the polling, the down is down on Republicans. There's almost no important place where Republicans are above 50%. But if you say, "How do you feel about Republicans?" compared to a socialist, they want people to think about that comparison when they vote. And that's what the story of all of those ads put together is. Think of this as a choice election in some regard.选战叙事成效与最新选情动态
也许这个问题无法得出确切答案，但我认为我们必须问一下。这似乎是作为压轴的最合适问题，因为你看了所有这些广告：哪一方在广告中把自己的故事讲得更好？哪一方拿出了最行之有效的广告？
英文原文
>> Maybe this is unanswerable, but I think we have to ask it. Seems like the right final question because you've watched all these ads. Which side has told their story best in these ads? Which side has basically put forward the most effective ads?我认为通常而言，在野党的故事总是更容易讲。而在眼下，这种叙事尤其容易，因为他们所讲的故事在很大程度上符合人们已经体会到的现实：人们投票给特朗普和共和党人是希望能有改变、希望能获得经济纾解；如今他们却看到一场推高成本的伊朗战争，看到尤其推高了部分商业界成本的关税，而他们正在为此指责共和党人。两年前，在经济问题上陷入被动挨打局面的还是民主党人。你知道，2024年选战中最著名的广告就是特朗普的“卡玛拉·哈里斯代表的是‘他们’，而特朗普总统代表的是‘你’”。
英文原文
>> I think the party out of power has an easier story to tell in general. And it's especially easy right now because they're telling a story people already sort of feel, which is they voted for Trump and the Republicans hoping for change, hoping for economic relief. They see a war in Iran that has driven up costs. They see tariffs that have driven up costs in particular for some business communities and they're blaming Republicans for that. And two years ago, it was the Democrats on their heels on the economy. You know, the most famous ad from the 2024 campaign was Trump's Kla Harris is for they them. President Trump is for you.没错，那条广告把她描绘得太自由派、太极端。但该广告的其余部分强调的是特朗普在为你的经济福祉而奋斗。而在失去权力的近两年时间里，民主党人所做的就是表态：事实上我们才是想为你的经济福祉而奋斗的人。[音乐] [音乐] 因此，这些广告就是你一路上看到的30秒片段，但它们放大了你的真实生活经历。[音乐] 而眼下在野党所拥有的优势、民主党人所拥有的优势、以及他们在民调中领先的原因，就在于[音乐]选民心中对自己生活的体察与那些广告中的叙事产生了呼应。而共和党人则只能在广告中说“等等先别下结论”，但这确实是一个更难辩护的论点。
英文原文
>> Yes, it was casting her as too liberal and too extreme. But the rest of that ad was about Trump is fighting for your economic well-being. and what Democrats have done over the nearly two years they've been out of power and said actually we do want to fight for your economic well-being. [music] [music] And so the ads are these 30-second little snippets that you see along the way, but they're amplifying your life experience. [music] And the advantage that the party out of power has right now, the advantage the Democrats have, the reason that their head in the polls is [music] the story voters are telling themselves is being echoed in that advertising. And the Republicans are saying, "Wait a second." But also consider this a harder argument.这个故事讲起来确实要棘手得多。[音乐]
英文原文
>> It's just a trickier [music] story to tell.好的谢恩，非常感谢你。让我们接下来一起看更多广告吧。[笑声]
英文原文
>> Well, Shane, thank you very much. Let's watch more ads together. [laughter]呃，不了，不了。我……我已经看够了。[音乐] [音乐]
英文原文
>> Uh, no. No. I'm I'm I'm done. [music] [music]我们马上回来。
英文原文
>> We'll be right back.以下是今天你还需要了解的其他要闻：[音乐] 委内瑞拉最受欢迎的反对派领袖玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多（María Corina Machado）在流亡近一年后于周日返回该国。她的归来给受美国支持的委内瑞拉威权政府施加了更大压力，要求其开启[音乐]向民主的过渡进程。另外——
英文原文
>> Here's what else you need to know today. [music] Venezuela's most popular opposition leader, Maria Corino Machado, returned to the country on Sunday after nearly a year in exile. Her arrival increases pressure on Venezuela's authoritarian government, which is backed by the United States, to begin [music] a transition toward democracy. And我不知道你注意到没有，但他似乎非常专注于房屋装修改造。
英文原文
>> >> I don't know if you've noticed, but he seems very focused on home renovations.他应该去上HGTV家装频道。
英文原文
>> >> He should be on HGTV.周末，前总统巴拉克·奥巴马（Barack Obama）[音乐]代表俄亥俄州民主党人艾米·阿克顿[音乐]首次在中期选举造势集会上亮相，并对特朗普总统发起了罕见的个人攻击。
英文原文
>> >> Over the weekend, former President Barack Obama [music] made his first appearance at a midterm campaign rally on behalf of Ohio Democrat Amy [music] Actton and delivered unusually personal attacks against President Trump.到处都是黄金。搞那么多金子干什么？不管什么都要镀层金。他把白宫弄得就像萨达姆·侯赛因开了家芝士蛋糕工厂（The Cheesecake Factory）一样。所以，他显然没有把精力放在为你们降低物价上。
英文原文
>> >> There's gold everywhere. What's up with the gold? I everything more gold. He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a cheese cake factory. So, he's clearly not focused on lowering prices for you.与此同时，特朗普总统正在加紧[音乐]干预中期选举的努力。在接连采取的行动中，特朗普要求联邦法院：如果阿拉斯加州的共和党现任参议员丹·萨利文（Dan Sullivan）[音乐]以微弱劣势落败，[音乐]则阻止该参议院选举结果的认证；他声称由于另一位候选人[音乐]名字几乎相同，导致了选举遭到污染。不久之后，[音乐]政府向加利福尼亚州各地的当地选举官员发出信件，要求他们[音乐]协助识别选民名册上潜在的非公民，并隔离[音乐]他们的全部选票。[音乐]
英文原文
>> Meanwhile, President Trump is intensifying [music] efforts to intervene in the midterm elections. In back-to-back moves, Trump asked a federal court to [music] block the certification of a Senate race in Alaska if the Republican incumbent, Senator [music] Dan Sullivan, were to narrowly lose, claiming that the presence of another candidate [music] with a nearly identical name, tainted the election. Soon after, [music] the administration sent letters to local election officials across California demanding that they [music] help identify potential noncitizens on the voter roles and set aside all of their ballots. [music]今天的节目由卡洛斯·普列托（Carlos Prieto）、阿德里安·赫斯特（Adrien Hurst）、杰西卡·钟（Jessica Cheung）和米歇尔·博纳（Michelle Bona）制作；马克·乔治（Mark George）和德文·泰勒（Devin Taylor）编辑；配乐由玛丽安·洛萨诺（Marian Lozano）和丹·鲍威尔（Dan Powell）创作；工程制作由艾丽莎·莫克斯利（Alyssa Moxley）负责；我们的主题音乐[音乐]由Wonderly制作。[音乐]以上就是《The Daily》的全部内容。我是迈克尔·巴尔巴罗。明天见。