伊朗战争的高昂成本与油价飙升
Tracy Mumford: 这里是来自《纽约时报》(New York Times)的新闻简报。我是 Tracy Mumford。今天是 3 月 12 日,星期四。以下是我们要报道的内容。
在本周的一场闭门简报会上,五角大楼(Pentagon)官员向立法者提交了迄今为止最全面的评估,说明在伊朗的战争耗资几何。据熟悉简报的人士透露,他们估计仅战争的前 6 天总额就超过了 11 亿美元。
其中很大一部分是弹药成本。一些用于攻击伊朗的炸弹单价超过 50 万美元。而用于防御报复性攻击的导弹拦截弹,每一发可能耗资 300 万美元。这一估算尚未包括冲突的所有成本,例如空袭前的集结费用。因此,立法者预计一旦所有计算完成,这个数字还将大幅增长。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: From the New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Thursday, March 12th. Here's what we're covering. In a closed-door briefing this week, Pentagon officials gave lawmakers the most comprehensive assessment yet of how much the war in Iran has cost. According to people familiar with the briefing, they estimated that the first 6 days alone totaled more than 1.1 billion. A big part of that is the cost of munitions. Some of the bombs used on Iran cost over half a million each. And missile interceptors to fend off retaliatory attacks can cost $3 million a shot. The estimate did not include all of the costs of the conflict, including the buildup before the strikes. So lawmakers expect to see the number grow considerably once all the calculations are in.
Tracy Mumford: 同样在经济领域,今天的平均汽油价格是每加仑 3.58 美元。这比一个月前高出了 60 美分。整整 60 美分。
民主党人指出,油价持续上涨是美国人在加油站感受到的直接后果。而且,石油短缺和价格进一步上涨的风险正在增加,而非减少。昨天,为了平抑市场,一个由 30 多个国家组成的联盟同意从其战略储备中释放史上最大规模的石油。但即便在这一声明发布后,油价依然持续攀升,昨晚飙升至每桶 100 美元以上。
这是由于人们担心中东冲突将在较长时间内影响全球很大一部分石油和天然气供应。霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)作为油气运输的关键通道,尽管美国摧毁了伊朗的海军舰艇和布雷舰,但那里依然是一个火药桶。昨天,至少有三艘货轮和两艘油轮在波斯湾或海峡附近遭到袭击。
与此同时,特朗普(Donald Trump)总统最近在社交媒体上写道:“只有傻瓜才看不出,飙升的油价与全球安全相比只是微小的代价。”
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Also on the economic front, a gallon of gas today is $3.58 on average. 60 cents more than it was a month ago. 60 cents more. Oil prices have continued to rise. Something Democrats are pointing to as a consequence Americans are feeling at the pump. And the danger of a shortage of oil and prices going up further is getting greater, not lesser. Yesterday, in an attempt to tame the markets, a coalition of more than 30 countries agreed to release the largest amount of oil ever from their strategic reserves. But even after that announcement, oil kept climbing, spiking over $100 a barrel last night. It's driven by fears that the conflict in the Middle East will affect a major part of the world's oil and gas supply for an extended period. The Strait of Hormuz, a key passage for oil and gas, continues to be a flashpoint despite the US taking out Iranian naval vessels and mine laying ships. Yesterday, at least three cargo vessels and two tankers were hit in the Gulf or near the strait. President Trump, meanwhile, wrote on social media recently that quote, "Only fools would not see the surging oil costs as a small price to pay for global security."
伊朗新领袖动态与美国国内政治分歧
Tracy Mumford: 我们正在关注的有关战争的其他几条线索。在被选为伊朗新任最高领袖 3 天后,穆沙·巴哈姆(Musha Baham)尚未在视频中公开露面,也没有发表任何书面声明。不愿透露姓名的伊朗官员表示,这是因为担心任何通讯都可能暴露他的位置并使他陷入危险,而且还因为他的腿在杀害他父亲(前任最高领袖)的最初空袭中受伤了。他的伤势程度尚不清楚。此外:
Joe Rogan: 我是说,这就是为什么很多人感到被背叛了,对吧?他竞选时承诺不再发动这些愚蠢、毫无意义的战争。结果现在我们卷入了一场连为什么打都说不清楚的战争。
Tracy Mumford: 在 2024 年助了特朗普一臂之力的影响力巨大的播客主持人 Joe Rogan 表示,总统的支持者现在觉得他背叛了自己的竞选承诺,即让美国远离外国冲突。梅根·凯利(Megan Kelly)和塔克·卡尔森(Tucker Carlson)等保守派播客主持人也对战争提出了批评。到目前为止,民调显示大多数美国人反对对伊朗的袭击。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: A few other threads were covering on the war. 3 days after being chosen as the new supreme leader of Iran, Musha Baham has not appeared in public on video or issued any written statements. Iranian officials speaking on the condition of anonymity say that's because there's concern any communication could reveal his location and put him in danger and also because his legs were injured in the initial strikes that killed his father, the previous Supreme Leader. The extent of his injuries are unclear. Also,
Joe Rogan: I mean, this is why a lot of people feel betrayed, right? He ran on no more wars and these stupid senseless wars. And then we have one that we can't even really clearly defined why we did it.
Tracy Mumford: Joe Rogan, the influential podcast host who gave Trump a boost in 2024, said the president's supporters now feel like he betrayed his own campaign promise to keep the US out of foreign conflicts. Conservative podcasters like Megan Kelly and Tucker Carlson have also criticized the war. So far, polls have shown that most Americans opposed the attacks on Iran.
军事调查:美军误炸伊朗小学
Tracy Mumford: 最后,一项军事调查的初步结果显示,美国应对伊朗南部一所小学的致命袭击负责。听取了调查简报的人士告诉《时报》,这是一个目标选定错误。
该学校建筑曾是海军基地的一部分,但在十多年前就被隔离开了。我的同事 Julian Barnes(负责美国情报报道)今天在《The Daily》节目中梳理了这些发现。
Julian Barnes: 选择和验证目标的系统非常复杂。系统中内置了多层机制来捕捉这类错误。但我们正处在一个要求军方快速行动、要求军方不惜打破陈规的时代。审核系统崩溃了。我们尚不完全清楚崩溃的具体时间和方式,但底线是,他们使用了 10 年前的陈旧数据,最终导致了一场灾难。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: And lastly, the preliminary findings of a military investigation show that the US was at fault for the deadly strike on an elementary school in southern Iran. People briefed on the investigation told the Times it was a targeting mistake. The school building used to be part of a naval base, but it was partitioned off over a decade ago. My colleague Julian Barnes, who covers US intelligence, walks through the findings today on the Daily.
Julian Barnes: The system for picking targets and verifying targets is very complex. There are levels built into the system that are supposed to catch this. But we are in an era when they want the military to move fast. They want the military to be willing to break things. The system of checks broke down. We do not fully know how and when, but the bottom line is 10-year-old data was used and it resulted in a catastrophe.
Turning Point USA 进入阿肯色州校园
Tracy Mumford: 现在是美国国内值得关注的三个故事。首先在阿肯色州:
Sarah Huckabee Sanders: 这项公告鼓励阿肯色州的每一所高中和大学通过建立 Club America 或 Turning Point USA 分会来参与公民政治对话。
Tracy Mumford: 州长 Sarah Huckabee Sanders 加入了一个日益壮大的共和党官员联盟,推动扩大 Turning Point USA 在学校的影响力。该组织由去年被暗杀的保守派活动家 Charlie Kirk 创立。Turning Point 表示,其在学校设立分会的目的是培养学生对“自由、自由市场和有限政府”的兴趣。
Erica Kirk: 不要让任何人因为你是年轻人,尤其是年轻的白人男性,就剥夺你的权利。永远不要让任何人阻止你发声。
Tracy Mumford: Charlie 的遗孀 Erica Kirk 昨天在阿肯色州推销这一新伙伴关系。俄克拉荷马州、佛罗里达州、德克萨斯州等地也建立了类似的计划,目前全国有 3000 多个高中分会。虽然这些合作似乎不涉及纳税人的钱,也不是强制性的,但批评者对州政府支持该组织表示担忧,理由是 Kirk 的极端右翼观点、散布阴谋论以及对同性恋和跨性别权利的批评。他们认为,政府的伙伴关系可能被视为一种“官方背书”。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Now, three stories to watch around the US. First in Arkansas,
Sarah Huckabee Sanders: this proclamation encourages every Arkansas high school and college to engage in civil civic discourse by starting a Club America or Turning Point USA chapter.
Tracy Mumford: Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders joined a growing coalition of Republican officials that are pushing to expand the influence of Turning Point USA in schools. The group was founded by Charlie Kirk, the conservative activist who was assassinated last year. Turning Point has said the goal of its chapters in schools is to foster students interest in quote "freedom, free markets, and limited government."
Erica Kirk: Don't let anyone disenfranchise you because you're a young man, especially a young white male man. Don't ever let anyone talk.
Tracy Mumford: Erica Kirk, Charlie's widow, was in Arkansas yesterday to promote the new partnership. Similar plans have been established in Oklahoma, Florida, Texas, and elsewhere, and there are now more than 3,000 high school chapters called Club America around the country. The partnerships do not appear to involve taxpayer money, and they're not mandates, but critics have raised concerns about the state's embrace of them, considering Kirk's hard-right views, his dissemination of conspiracy theories, and his criticism of gay and transgender rights. They say the state partnerships could be seen as a kind of government seal of approval.
华盛顿州通过“百万富翁税”与富豪外流
Tracy Mumford: 接下来的故事发生在华盛顿州:
议长: 经众议院修订的参议院 6346 号法案宣布通过。
Tracy Mumford: 立法者昨天投票设立了所谓的“百万富翁税”。这是一项向美国最富有阶层增税运动中的显著进展。该法案将对超过 100 万美元的收入征收约 10% 的税,预计将影响约 2 万个家庭,并为该州带来每年数十亿美元的资金。
那里的共和党人辩称,这将打击企业家在华盛顿州创业的积极性,而该州在利润丰厚的科技初创企业方面有着悠久的历史。至少有一位亿万富翁已经表示要离开。星巴克(Starbucks)前负责人 Howard Schultz 在社交媒体上写道,他将搬到佛罗里达州。在西雅图地区创立亚马逊(Amazon)的 Jeff Bezos 也于 2023 年从华盛顿搬到了佛罗里达。与此同时,民主党人表示,该州的许多富裕居民已经受益于联邦减税政策,并表示:“也许他们会乐意留在这里,投资于这个给了他们繁荣机会的社区。”
Original English
Tracy Mumford: Next, in Washington state,
Speaker: Senate Bill 6346, as amended by the House, is declared passed.
Tracy Mumford: Lawmakers yesterday voted to create what's been dubbed the millionaire's tax. It's a notable development in a growing movement to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans. It will impose a roughly 10% tax on earnings over a million dollars and is projected to affect around 20,000 households and bring in billions in annual funding for the state. Republicans there have argued it will deincentivize entrepreneurs from starting businesses in Washington, which has a long history of lucrative tech startups. At least one billionaire has said he's leaving. The former head of Starbucks, Howard Schultz, wrote on social media that he's moving to Florida. Jeff Bezos, who founded Amazon in the Seattle area, also moved to Florida from Washington in 2023. Democrats, meanwhile, said many of the state's wealthy residents had already benefited from federal tax cuts and quote, "Maybe they'll be happy to stay here and invest in the community that has given them the opportunity to thrive."
计划生育协会转型医美服务
Tracy Mumford: 在加利福尼亚州:
发言人: 我们充满韧性且富有创新精神,我们不再是你母亲那个时代的美国计划生育协会(Planned Parenthood)。
Tracy Mumford: 一家计划生育诊所表示,为了在联邦资金大幅削减的情况下生存,它正转向一种新的收入来源:美容手术。萨克拉门托的分店已经开始提供肉毒杆菌(Botox)注射,并计划到 6 月份在该地区的另外三家分店推广。在全国范围内,计划生育协会为数百万人(其中许多人依赖医疗补助)提供避孕、产前护理和性健康筛查。医疗补助报销的大幅削减加上成本上升,为维持运营带来了巨大的挑战。负责监督该诊所的首席医疗运营官表示,他们开放的所有肉毒杆菌预约都已报满。她强调,提供美容治疗并不是以牺牲其他传统医疗服务为代价的,她说:“这并不是非此即彼的情况。”
Original English
Tracy Mumford: And in California,
Speaker: we are resilient and innovative, and we're not your mom's Planned Parenthood.
Tracy Mumford: A Planned Parenthood clinic says that in order to survive deep federal funding cuts, it's turning to a new source of income, cosmetic procedures. The Sacramento location has begun offering Botox injections, and there are plans for three others in the area to start by June. Nationwide, Planned Parenthood provides birth control, prenatal care, and sexual health screenings for millions of patients, many of them on Medicaid. Significant cuts to Medicaid reimbursements combined with rising costs have presented enormous challenges to keeping the lights on. The chief medical operating officer who oversees the Sacramento clinic and others said all the bottom-line Botox appointments that they've opened up have been booked. And she stressed that it's not providing aesthetic treatments at the expense of other traditional health services, saying quote, "This isn't an either-or situation."
Noma 主厨因虐待指控辞职
Tracy Mumford: 最后:
抗议者: 你们真无耻!滥用权力不配星级!
Tracy Mumford: 在遭到过去虐待行为的指控后,著名厨师 René Redzepi 辞去了 Noma 的职务。Noma 是世界上最著名的顶级餐厅之一。Redzepi 在这家哥本哈根餐厅成名,将自己和餐厅都变成了烹饪偶像,屡获米其林星级。Noma 以其复杂、脆弱、可能包含 20 多种成分的菜肴而闻名,比如包裹在海带里的微型李子。
那里的员工告诉《时报》,在 2009 年至 2017 年间,Redzepi 曾殴打员工并用厨具戳他们。一位前厨师说,他在 Redzepi 发现他把花瓣放在盘子上时留下了一个微小的镊子印记后,被猛地推到墙上并击中了腹部。约 30 名员工表示,被 Redzepi 或 Noma 的其他高级厨师殴打是常有的事。在《时报》发表他们的报道后,Noma 在洛杉矶售罄的快闪店遭到了抨击。美国运通(American Express)等企业赞助商纷纷撤资,抗议者聚集在那里挥舞标语并高喊口号。昨天,Redzepi 在 Instagram 上发布消息宣布辞职。他说,近年来他一直致力于成为更好的领导者并改变 Noma 的文化,但“我意识到这些改变无法修复过去。仅仅道歉是不够的。我对自己的行为负责。”
以上就是新闻简报。我是 Tracy Mumford。我们明天见。
Original English
Tracy Mumford: And finally,
Protesters: NO ONE SHAME ON YOU. NO STARS FOR ABUSE.
Tracy Mumford: Amid allegations of past abuse, the celebrated chef Renee Redzeppy has stepped down from NOMA, one of the most famous fine dining establishments in the world. Redzeppy rose to prominence at the Copenhagen restaurant, turning himself and it into culinary icons, racking up Michelin stars. NOMA became famous for its complex, fragile dishes that could contain 20 plus ingredients. Things like tiny plums wrapped in kelp. Employees there told the Times that between 2009 and 2017, Redzeppy punched members of staff and jabbed them with kitchen implements. One former cook said he was slammed against the wall and hit in the stomach after Redzeppy noticed he left a tiny tweezer mark on a flower petal as he placed it on a plate. Some 30 former employees said being hit by Redzeppy or other senior chefs at NOMA was routine. After the Times published their accounts, NOMA's sold-out popup in Los Angeles came under fire. Corporate sponsors like American Express pulled back and protesters gathered there waving signs and chanting. Yesterday on Instagram, Redzeppy posted a message announcing he would step down. He said in recent years he had worked to be a better leader and change the culture at NOMA, but quote, "I recognize these changes do not repair the past. An apology is not enough. I take responsibility for my own actions." Those are the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. We'll be back tomorrow with the latest and the Friday news quiz.
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Donald Trump, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, René Redzepi
公司/组织: Pentagon, Turning Point USA, Planned Parenthood, Noma
媒体/书籍: The New York Times, The Daily