Welcome back to another episode of the market close. It is our first market close in about five days. Excited to be back. We are ending out the first day of December and we are going to see how this plays out. We were red in the morning, ended up going green by the afternoon and now it's kind of back and forth. S&P 500 and Bitcoin unfortunately has been the story of the day that's been to the downside. Bitcoin right there is at $85,000, did get to $83,000 at one point, down from $91,000 earlier in the morning.

Nvidia is going a little green, up 1.3%. Meta is basically down 1% on the day and then the S&P 500 is at 680. A 680 close I think would be very good just psychologically, staying above that 680 level. However, that might not happen because we're 50 cents away.

So the fact that the market I think is holding up today is important. There haven't been a ton of pieces of news that necessarily should say the market should sell off or should go higher. We had that Japan bond yield spike overnight to the highest level, 1.84% on the 10-year since 2008. So, I think that kind of spooked out Bitcoin, but outside of that, nothing too crazy. We do have a bunch of headlines that came out over the past couple hours that we'll talk about, but overall relatively flat day for the broader market. S&P 500 right there is down about 0.42%.

Now, the NeoClouds, Nebius I know, got an upgrade today. That's why that bad boy is up 7% to $101. Iren is also following, kind of weird, right? Nebius and Iren are up. Cipher and Wolf were down. It's almost like the OpenAI proxies were green and the Google proxies, because Cipher and Wolf have investment by Google, are red. So, not really sure why the divergence is happening there. Nebius did get an upgrade this morning. So, maybe that's specifically why Nebius is outperforming all these other guys.

But it is funny that Nvidia is relatively, I mean it's up today, but it's not, you know, anywhere near where it was on earnings, but the Neoclouds are going a lot higher. CoreWeave right there also up 5.48% today. So, you are seeing a little bit more momentum in those NeoClouds. Unfortunately, Bitmine, that one at its worst was at $28.80 today. Now it's at $29.99, down about 9%. MicroStrategy as well getting hit. It was down 11. Now it's only down four given Bitcoin had a little bit of a rebound. Tesla as well basically flat on the day at 429.

But that's kind of the story of what we've got going on. Now after hours, we've got MongoDB. Let me know in the chat if anyone owns those names. And Credo, CRDO, a $30 billion company for those that don't know the name. I'm going to put a poll right now in the chat and ask which one people think outperforms. I really don't have an opinion on either. We covered their earnings last time and last time I think Q2 was when MongoDB really surprised to the upside. I think it was up like 30% the day after. So, we're going to see if that can kind of continue going into today.

Yes, Amkor as well. That Broadcom upgrade got Amkor to make a move and that's why it was nice to see. Shopify down 5% is weird given we looked at the Black Friday sales numbers these mornings from Toby Lütke, the CEO of Shopify. I mean 25% year-over-year merchant sales, $6.2 billion in one day. 25% year-over-year growth. We got Cyber Monday today. I mean that's absolutely incredible.

By the way, Shopify has that website, bfcm.shopify.com, and it shows you a live presentation of how many sales they're having every minute, which is kind of crazy. They do it through this like pinball machine. So, per minute right now, they are doing about 28,000 orders and $3 million. It's kind of crazy, but the consumer so far doesn't seem to be as stressed as kind of what we were hearing over the past couple days. Shopify went down today. Yeah, I mean it makes sense as well, just given the amount of momentum and load management they're having on the platform itself.

So, that's what you have in the broader equity markets. Now, we do have some headlines right here. Again, we'll have MongoDB and Credo after the bell. There was a couple of headlines that I think are important to cover and then we'll get into all the other pieces of news. I think the biggest one was probably from Robin Hood. So, we got an update on the prediction markets for November. I joined Tanner's show a couple of hours ago to talk about these prediction markets. It's pretty incredible growth. November had three billion contracts traded. That's up 20% month over month, 9.5 billion contracts in total. And they're hosting a new event called Robin Hood Presents: Yes. No. It's going to be streamed on December 16.

Now, the thing about this event is Vlad told us back at the Hood Summit that this was going to be an AI event, their fourth event in less than 12 months, which already is crazy. But they're making it called Robin Hood Presents: Yes. No. Which to me signals that it's not just going to be about AI. It's likely going to be about AI and prediction markets. And as a result, I think they're going to be ramping up the entire prediction markets ecosystem.

And that's going to be very exciting to see. So, I mean, I told you guys I've been doing a lot more research on prediction markets as an entire industry. I'm probably going to have a substack on it in a couple days, but I think this is a very big industry. The reason why they bought an exchange or took an equity position in an exchange with Susquehanna Group as the market maker on the joint venture last week is because they're probably seeing a ridiculous amount of volumes that they need to build their own clearing house to be able to support. And given they did three billion contracts in a month, it seems like there is a need for a new market maker like Robin Hood.

So Robin Hood right there at $123, still down 4% on the day because of crypto. But the fun thing about this is if crypto sells off throughout the rest of 2026, which who knows if that's going to happen or not. You've got prediction markets. So, if Robin Hood loses the crypto volatility, sports aren't going anywhere. And if people are going to continue betting on sports or weather or whatever events people like to predict markets on, that volatility, especially if Robin Hood takes a large part of the market share, it's not going to be as lucrative as crypto, but if they can match the volumes, they can make up for the lack of revenue from crypto, which just goes to the moat that Robin Hood has about being able to build products in a variety of different ecosystems and still outperform.

JPAL is going to be speaking at 8:00 PM. So, again, I don't think he's going to be saying anything that important because it's a blackout week. Fed can't talk. They're not supposed to be saying anything. So, they said everything they had to say last week. So, maybe we'll get some comments from JPAL, but going into the end of the day, I'll report on what we get. Yeah. JP at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, 5:00 p.m. Pacific at Stanford. I think it's going to be like just talking to the Stanford graduates, not really something so serious in regards to talking about the economy.

Let's take a look at the heat map here. Apple, Amazon, Nvidia leading the day. Everything else kind of taking a hit. Even Google taking a 1.2% hit. Walmart's up, Home Depot's up. Energy's up. You might have some fears about a war with Venezuela, which obviously would not be good for oil prices. So maybe the energy stocks rallying a little bit off that. But Nvidia right there is kind of leading the day and it wasn't leading the day. It was down for the majority of the day. So the fact that it's recovering towards the end is not too bad.

Speaking of people getting hit, you've got some people that have also been crashing out on the crypto ecosystem. I have not watched this video yet, but Cactus Jack sent it to me, so we're all gonna be watching it at the same time. But here's this guy who, well, let's just say he's not happy that crypto is not doing that well.

>> I'M TIRED OF LOSING ALL MY MONEY. YOU PROMISED US YOU'D MAKE CRYPTO GREAT AGAIN. YOU PROMISED US WE'D BE RICH. THE ONLY PEOPLE THAT ARE RICH IS YOU AND YOUR FAMILY. YOU ABSOLUTE SLIME BALL. YOU LOST THE MEMECOIN. YOU'RE LAUNCHING VAPORWARE CRYPTO THAT NO ONE WANTS. YOU GET BRIBED BY ALL THE CRYPTO OFFICIALS. YOU PARDON CRIMINALS TO DESTROY THE MARKET. ERIC TRUMP SAYS Q4 WOULD BE UNBELIEVABLE FOR OUR BANKS. OH, IT'S PRETTY UNBELIEVABLE. IT'S PRETTY UNBELIEVABLE HOW MUCH MONEY I'VE LOST. ERIC TRUMP. DONALD TRUMP. DONALD TRUMP JR., YOU GUYS DESTROYED MY LIFE. THE ONLY PERSON I WOULD TRUST IS BARRON TRUMP BECAUSE HE'S 8 FEET TALL. BARRON, YOU TELL ME WHAT TO DO BECAUSE RIGHT NOW I HATE THE TRUMP FAMILY.

>> OKAY, so he's probably acting a little bit there, but the sentiment I think is very real in the crypto ecosystem and you can't blame people for feeling like that. I don't know if you necessarily have to blame Trump about all this stuff, but nonetheless, Bitcoin has just not performed this year. And to make things worse, you know, someone asked a question this morning, what is MicroStrategy going to have to do? Would they end up selling their crypto?

Uh, well, here's the clip. The answer is, yeah, the CEO of MicroStrategy, obviously Saylor is going to have the final decision here, but he admits we theoretically could sell our Bitcoin. >> And so now as we're looking at, you know, Bitcoin winter, as we see our MNAV compressing, my hope is our MNAV doesn't go below one. But if we did and we didn't have other access to capital, we would sell Bitcoin. >> But that would almost be a last resort. >> That would be a last resort. And I think like math, there's the mathematical side of me that says that would be absolutely the right thing to do. Uh, and there's the emotional side of me, the market side of me that says, you know, we don't want to really be the company that's selling Bitcoin.

And so now, as Sailor has said many times, they're not going to sell Bitcoin. But you got the CEO admitting that they might have to. And again, legally, they have to at least put a disclaimer that they could do this. This is from their presentation right here as well, where they said, "Hey, if we are below 1x MNAV, we could sell Bitcoin or sell Bitcoin derivatives." So the best way to avoid that is for Bitcoin to not go down the gutter and hopefully it doesn't. But nonetheless, that is why MicroStrategy and BMR and a lot of these other crypto derivative plays have been getting pretty hit over the past couple days.

Santa Claus rally. A lot of people have been asking, hey, when does the Santa Claus rally start? Well, technically, this is from our boy Ryan Detrick. It doesn't really start till the middle of the month. So S&P historically from 1950 to 2024, the first 15 days is flat. So Santa comes to town closer to the end of the month as you can see right there from the 15th to the 31st you get a bit of a move and that aggregates to 1.4%.

So the next 15 days, next two weeks, you know, if there is any seasonal move that is going to be green, you might have to wait for it. The other thing that's important to remember as well, and this is not to say the Santa Claus rally won't happen, but it's important to have this context. A lot of that Santa Claus rally aggregate data is based on the idea of September and October being really bad. So December you tend to get a rally and reverse a lot of the losses that you have from September and October. This year September and October were great. November was bad, but November was down a percent. You know, it's not crazy. It was like 0.75%.

So when you think about it from that perspective, it's like does December have to be phenomenal? I think there's other reasons why December could be good, but the sort of built-in seasonality argument hasn't held up the entire year. And a lot of that was because of the April downside that we had with tariffs. And so we're going to have to see if it holds up the same going into the end of December this year.

All right, we got two earnings after the bell. Let me know if anyone owns these stocks, MongoDB and Credo. Uh, not the drone company, the other one, CRDO. 61% thinks MongoDB outperforms. And Credo is about 31%. We should be getting their earnings in about five minutes as soon as the bell rings.

Oh, these are big numbers. These are big boy numbers. MongoDB beat EPS by 67%. $1.32 versus 79 cents expected. Revenue they beat by 6%, $6.28 million versus $5.93 million. EPS up 14% year-over-year. Revenue up 19% year-over-year. 67%, of course. But my goodness, that's a hell of a beat. I think that's one of the biggest beats we've seen for a SaaS name all quarter.

And then Credo, they beat EPS by 34%. 67 cents, it's not a beat by 67%, but 67 cents of EPS beating by 34% versus 50 cents expected. Revenue beat by 14%. Revenue is up 272% year-over-year. EPS is up 857% year-over-year. Wow, those are big numbers, dude. Those are big numbers. I know these are not the largest companies in the world but you would expect them to show AI being a tailwind and for each of them there should be some level of tailwind intrinsically given their business models.

Credo is now up 11% after hours. Mongo's up 13.4%. The poll was which one outperforms. Both of them are relatively, I mean Credo is 1% away, less than 1% from catching up to MongoDB after hours. Goodness, these are good numbers.

While we're waiting for the MongoDB numbers, here's Credo. Uh, revenue of 268 million. That's up 20% quarter over quarter, 272% year-over-year. CEO says in the second quarter, Credo delivered revenue of 268 million, an increase of 20% sequentially. These are the strongest quarterly results in Credo's history and they reflect the continued buildout of the world's largest AI training and inference clusters. Looking forward, the combination of continued growth in our core AEC and IC franchises, plus the upcoming ramps of our recently announced ALCs gives us an outlook with strong revenue growth and profitability through fiscal 2026 and beyond. Again, another CEO saying data center demand is strong.

Revenues up 30% year-over-year. Third quarter, fiscal total revenue 628 million. That's up 19%. They added 2,600 customers, 62,500 total customers in Q3. MongoDB delivered strong third quarter results that exceeded the high end of our guidance, driven by continued strength in Atlas, which saw growth accelerate to 30% year-over-year. We also delivered meaningful margin outperformance as we executed on our plan to drive profitable growth.

Let's talk about is Nvidia. There was an update from Morgan Stanley on Nvidia that I think was really important today and definitely got my attention. Morgan Stanley went to Asia over the past week and they talked to a bunch of customers to get some more updates on what they think is happening with Nvidia.

And here's what they said. "We continue to see Nvidia maintaining dominant market shares as threats are being overstated though we aren't exactly sure what will turn sentiment around." So the first thing they're saying is hey like everything we're seeing in our checks are really good but we're not sure what's going to turn sentiment around.

But at its core, this was the sentence that was just incredible to me. They said, "Our belief informed by industry context that Nvidia will have the best economics for most applications is unwavering. Customers' biggest anxiety for the next 12 months is their ability to procure enough Nvidia product generally and their Rubin specifically." That to me was just incredible to hear.

So Morgan Stanley saying, "We talked to the customers and they are not concerned about an AI bubble. They are not concerned about Michael Burry and his thoughts or depreciation. They are concerned about can we get the product because it is so hard." And that goes very consistent with what Jensen's been saying, not only from a raising guidance perspective, which is like showing that Jensen is not just, you know, blowing hot air. He's like legitimately saying something that's backed up by the numbers, but also what he's saying is that we have more demand than supply.

Morgan Stanley goes on to say, "Of course, everyone wants an alternative, and those alternatives will have good economics for some applications. TPU is by all accounts a solid alternative and one that has meaningfully contributed to several key models. But it's worth keeping in mind that Nvidia just did $51 billion in data center revenues for the quarter, roughly 14x TPU revenues, and put up $10 billion of sequential revenue growth. Itself about 3x TPU revenues. Even in the workloads that were majority TPU, we were informed that there was still a meaningful Nvidia contribution that may have been the majority of data center revenues even if it was a minority of volumes."

So I mean like I was talking about this with Tanner on his stream, like if you own Nvidia I don't think you need to be losing sleep at night and I think the Google TPU conversation is important. It's relevant and it is very healthy for for bulls to question their assumptions by looking at all the different competitors that are out there. But like the numbers tell the story and unless you don't believe the numbers, the numbers are saying demand outstrips supply.

Here's my take. I'm coming out with a substack later this week on prediction markets but I think everyone who says prediction markets are gambling, this is the take. I do not think prediction markets are gambling. Let me say that again. I do not think prediction markets are gambling.

Simple thesis. If you think it's gambling then you have to think that options are gambling as well. Which then if you think both are gambling then you can think that. But I'm more so talking about the people that are like Robin Hood's promoting gambling. Well, if this is gambling, then I think options are gambling. If that's the case, Schwab, Vanguard, Fidelity, SoFi, all the brokerages are promoting gambling.

Now, why do I think prediction markets are basically like an options contract? I was thinking about this a lot over the weekend. Lakers play the Knicks. Prediction market. Lakers 60% chance. Knicks 40% chance. You can bet or speculate or you can take a quantitative approach to looking at all the analytics and data which by the way the sports analytics is a massive industry. And you can then make a decision on if you think the Lakers are going to win, pay 60 cents for a contract or if the Knicks are going to win, pay 40 cents.

If I think Nvidia is going to be 185 by the end of this week, that is an options contract that has an expiration by the end of this week. And then there is something that has to happen. There's a binary event. The Lakers or Knicks have to win for me to win based on whoever I chose. Nvidia has to get to 185. If it does not get to 185 by Friday, I lose all my money. Can we accept that premise right there? So, binary outcome. Either Nvidia is 185 or whatever strike you want to pick on your contract, or it's not. Either the Lakers win or they lose.

Already, we're starting to see the comparison between one of these is a contract with an expiration, just like the Lakers Knicks game is going to end at 10 p.m. after they play. That is an expiration. And there's going to be one outcome. Either they win or they lose. Either Nvidia is up or it's down.

The intra swing movement or intraday, intra hour, intra week, I mean whatever amount of time you want to swing the contract within the life cycle of the binary event is the trading portion of the prediction market which is the exact same thing as an options contract. I am struggling to see the difference and I know a lot of people are agreeing with me here and I'm ready to take the heat for this. I just logically do not see the difference between someone betting on Nvidia going to 185 by the end of the week and someone betting on the Knicks versus the Lakers.

So there's this post. I want to read this post to everybody. I think it's a really good synopsis of what is happening going into 2026. It's a little long, but I'll get through it because I'll be fast as I read. But here's all the things that are happening right now in the market. Silver's at almost $60. Gold's at $4,300. The Fed is cutting rates. Earnings growth the best in years. Midterm elections upcoming with all signs of massive fiscal stimulus. Largest tax refunds in years expected in 2026.

AI advancements in science, biotech, robotics, and other areas potentially ready to unleash new productivity miracles. S&P margins are out of this world. He's right about that, which is why we're trading at 22 times forward. The Treasury is openly advocating for a weaker dollar, bullish for Bitcoin. US fiscal deficits running close to two trillion, which means guess what? We got to grow out of that. This is kind of Elon's argument about AI and robotics being the only way to deal with the deficit issue.

The wealthiest generation in human history has been and will continue to spend like crazy regardless of the employment picture. Consumer spending is up. Best Black Friday ever. First one trillion Christmas spending season expected. Global equity markets having their best year in decades. In fact, the United States is the worst performing market across the entire world. But yes, it is harder to afford a new house than it used to be and P/Es are a bit elevated. So, I guess I'll short the market.

I mean, again, when you hear all of those arguments and the other thing that he didn't mention is that the net inflows for US ETFs is topping 1.2 trillion this year, like but P/Es are up a little bit and houses have become more expensive, so I'm going to go short. I don't know. Is that like is that the best argument or is that an argument of someone who just wants to call a top and get all the credit for calling a top?