通胀见顶：地缘缓冲与政策预期的共振
近期市场在经历了周初剧烈的抛售潮后，于后半周因伊朗局势的转机而企稳。本周公布的宏观数据呈现出复杂的表象与积极的内核：尽管整体消费价格指数（CPI: Consumer Price Index）同比跃升至4.2%重返“4时代”，但拆解结构可知，这完全是由受中东战局推高的能源价格（涵盖原油、汽油与航空燃油等）所驱动。真正反映通胀底层趋势的核心CPI（剔除食品与能源）环比仅上涨0.2%，基本贴合美联储的政策目标。此外，衡量企业端成本的生产者价格指数（PPI: Producer Price Index）虽然受能源和人工智能（AI: Artificial Intelligence）硬件制造热潮影响而走高，但作为美联储首选指标的个人消费支出物价指数（PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index）在环比上已显现出明显的改善趋势。更为关键的是，密歇根大学消费者调查显示中长期通胀预期出现实质性下降，这极大缓解了美联储对通胀失控的担忧。
原油价格近期的显著回落，除了源于对伊朗潜在和平协议的乐观预期，更反映了中美两国在能源供应链上的战略缓冲。尽管霍尔木兹海峡大范围受阻，但部分油轮在美国军方护航下仍能通行；同时，美国大规模释放战略石油储备（SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve），而拥有逾10亿桶储备的中国也在同步消耗库存以减少国际市场进口，进而为全球释放了配额空间。然而，美国的战略库存已逼近操作底线。鉴于即将到来的独立日、国际足联（FIFA）赛事及中期选举，美国政府正面临极大的政治压力，若无法在本月底前达成实质性妥协，油价恐将面临二次反弹的失控风险。正因历次中东冲突最终都被证明是政治代价高昂且徒劳的博弈，市场已开始积极对和平协议达成及油价回落后的宽松利率环境进行定价。
Original English Source
Hello my friends. Today is June 13th and this is markets weekly. All right, so this week was a very volatile week in markets. Earlier in the week, we seemed to be in a new seller regime where we had big rallies at open that were sold off aggressively into the close. Towards the second part of the week though, there was a change in tone. We had positive developments on the Iran front and that really boosted sentiment such that we ended up the week basically unchanged. Now today, let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about the inflation data we got the past week, and how it seems like we're at peak inflation. And secondly, let's talk about the SpaceX IPO, largest IPO ever, and of course, the upcoming flood of equity supply in the coming months. That will definitely be bad for SpaceX and probably for the broader market as well. All right, starting with inflation. So last week we got CPI and it was straight up not good. CPI headline CPI on a year-over-year basis was 4.2%. Guys, so inflation is back to a four handle. But when you look at the details of the CPI print though, it's much more encouraging. Looking at the details, you can see that CPI is high entirely due to high energy prices. The war with Iran drove up crude oil and that bled into gasoline, jet fuel, and all sorts of energy prices. and that is boosting CPI. When you look at core CPI, that is to say CPI excluding food and energy on a month-over-month basis, it's only two 0.2%. So, if you analyze that, looking at this chart from Anna Wong and Bloomberg, you can see that uh inflation core CPI is basically at the Fed's target. Now, if energy prices continue to cooperate, we will see inflation trend down. Now, energy prices, if you look at the barrel of crude oil, a few weeks ago was over $100, but it's been moving lower and this past week move lower aggressively on positive news on the Iran front. So, as long as that continues, then we can see that CPI come down and that suggests that inflation has peaked at least for the moment. Now, last week we also got PPI, which is prices paid by businesses. Now, that was also elevated. Of course, businesses face high energy prices as well. And of course, we have an AI buildout that's leading to bit of a manufacturing boom. So that's been pushing our prices as well. So again, PPI is also elevated. But what the Fed targets is not CPI or PPI, but PCE, another measure of consumer prices. If you have PPI, if you have CPI, you can make a pretty good prediction of what PCE is. So according to the Cleveland Fed again PC will be elevated but on a month- over-month basis it looks like it's definitely improving right crude oil prices are trending lower that means energy prices are coming down. Now what was really positive on the inflation front is that we also got inflation expectations from the University of Michigan consumer survey and inflation expectations on the medium-term had a discreet decline. So one of the ways that you can think about the Fed is not just not really targeting in spot inflation but targeting inflation expectations because the Fed thinks that inflation expectations um lead or at least cause realized inflation. Now with inflation expectations coming down that of course is very comforting uh to the Fed such that they they don't have to worry about inflation going out of control. So whether or not we are going to have uh rate hikes or rate cuts in the coming months is really just going to completely depend on what happens in the Middle East which of course is what is impacting oil prices which is what's driving inflation higher. So it looks like we do have very genuinely positive developments on the Iran front. Now the president has been touting a peace deal basically since the beginning of the war. I think some uh journal counted maybe 30 some 30 some times the president has telling everyone a deal was close but now this seems to be a legitimate change in what's happening with Iran. So we also have a lot more information as to why oil prices have been much lower than what many have projected. Though although the straight of Hmus has been largely closed for uh let's say 3 months the president revealed last week that actually with the help of the US military some oil vessels have been getting through so some supply has been getting through. The second point is that the US has been aggressively drawing down on its SPR so it strategic petroleum reserve and that's been buffering uh the shortage from the straight of Hamuz and also we can we've learned that China seems to be aggressively drawing down on its buffer as well. Now, China has over a billion barrels in its strategic reserve. And over the past few weeks, it's been drawing some of that down such that it's been importing less oil from the world. And when it imports less oil from the world, that's more barrels that can go to other places. So, all of this together has been contributing to oil prices that are lower than expectations. But if you look at this chart of US SPR levels, you can see that it's been drawing down aggressively and that we're very close to minimal operational levels. So a lot of oil CEOs have been making the rounds on TV telling the White House, telling everyone that if this is not resolved very soon, say by the end of this month, uh we're going to not be able to draw down the SPR anymore. And so at that point, you can have oil prices really spike. So, uh, the president has basically run out of time. If he doesn't do fix something soon, uh, oil prices will spike and this is a bad time for him because we have the Fourth of July celebration, we have FIFA, and of course, we have midterm elections. So, it seems like the president is on the cusp of making some kind of deal that is really favorable to Iran. So far, of course, details are still murky. It seems like uh the US is going to lift sanctions and release a lot of funds to Iran. And so um you know at the end of the day this was a war that cost that was politically very costly for the president betrayed his base. It made u you know gas prices higher so made it difficult for the midterms. It was something that was bad for US allies. Think about the Middle East allies. Think about uh Korea, Japan, which had to send over some military missiles to to support that war effort in the Middle East. And at the end of the day, it's very clear that the United States got nothing for all its costs, which is consistent with what happened in Afghanistan and Iran. So basically uh totally predictable. But the good news is it seems like this nightmare is over. Inflation will come down. And if that's the case, if you look at what hap what's pricing in the rates market at the news of the at the positive news of the potential Iran deal, you had the market pricing in a slightly lower rate path, still about two hikes in the coming months uh into next year. Should there be a genuine peace deal and should oil prices really do come down, uh you could easily see that the Fed move to a neutral position. So Fed not hiking or not cutting and over time the market price in rate cuts. So you you have some potential uh for uh pretty big moves in the rates market should should developments in the Middle East prove favorable. Again everything is in the air and everything could change once the midterm elections are over. And of course uh we should also note that um during the oil Arab oil embargo once the embargo ended is actually when we began to become more aware of the actual economic damage and the opening market suffered tremendously afterwards. So uh we'll find out in the coming months how long it takes to normalize the oil and supply flows and just how much lasting damage if any was done to the global economy. All right. So so far though very positive news.流动性虹吸：SpaceX创纪录IPO与科技巨头增发潮
在宏观环境酝酿转机的同时，资本市场内部的供需格局正在发生剧变。本周，SpaceX完成了史上最大规模的首次公开募股（IPO: Initial Public Offering），以高达2万亿美元的惊人估值将伊隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）推向万亿富翁的宝座，并让大批员工实现财富自由。然而，从传统估值框架来看，给予一家连年亏损数十亿美元的企业如此庞大的市值，凸显了当前市场严重依赖动量驱动的特征。正如特斯拉（Tesla）曾经无视损益表而依靠狂热的共识压垮空头一样，SpaceX的定价再次验证了马斯克调动市场情绪的独特能力。
必须警惕的是，这场资本盛宴背后隐藏着巨大的流动性虹吸效应。尽管SpaceX本次仅发售了750亿美元的流通股，但在未来数月，随着禁售条款到期，那些持有多年并渴望锁定利润的员工、风投机构与早期投资者将迎来解禁潮。纵观历史，即便是最具潜力的企业，在上市初期的禁售解除期内往往也表现欠佳。更为严峻的是，这并非单一现象，整个市场的股票供给（Equity Supply）正在激增。除了超微电脑（Super Micro）宣布的70亿美元增发（导致其股价本周暴跌30%），以及OpenAI与Anthropic等独角兽即将到来的IPO外，谷歌（Google）和Meta也已表态将在高位出售股票。在高度不确定的AI军备竞赛中，科技巨头更倾向于通过增发股票而非债务融资来分摊风险。
从过去十年的历史来看，美国股票市场的供给往往是净萎缩的。像苹果（Apple）、亚马逊（Amazon）等科技巨头长期通过大规模股票回购（Stock Buybacks）来抵消员工期权的稀释，这构成了支撑其高股价的核心支柱。然而，如今为了筹集数百亿美元的AI基础设施建设资金，这些公司正从“流动性净注入方”转变为“流动性净消耗方”。这种股票供给由负转正的结构性逆转，将成为未来数月压制市场表现的核心阻力。
Original English Source
All right. The second thing we want to talk about is of course the SpaceX IPO. On Friday, SpaceX IPOed and if you look at this chart from the Financial Times, you can see it was the largest IPO ever by far. So the SpaceX IPO was a resounding success making Elon Musk a trillionaire, right? A thousand billions, a trillionaire, far above um his closest competitors. And it also made thousands of SpaceX employees millionaires as well. Now, Elon has been very generous to SpaceX employees, giving them a lot of equity rewards. And of course, in the past few years, he really wasn't sure if they'd be worth anything. But now, of course, people who held on are are definitely very happy. Now, something to keep in mind, though, is that um you know, from a traditional equity valuation metric, uh SpaceX right now is valued at $2 trillion and last year it lost a few billion and the year before it lost a few billion. So it doesn't make a lot of sense for a company that loses billions every year to be valued at $2 trillion. Again, markets are largely leveraged and momentum. And Elon has always been a person that was has been able to inspire a lot of um I guess enthusiasm for his companies. Tesla, for example, has bankrupted many many many short sellers, many bears uh because it's not really driven by profit and loss and things like that. Um, so SpaceX again is showing that this is consistent with a with an Elon company. That being said though, now although SpaceX is valued at a market cap of $2 trillion, only 75 billion in equity was was sold. So a lot of people a lot of SpaceX uh equity holders obviously who've been holding over the past few years would like to cash out, right? So everyone knows that, you know, this is a great company and probably going to do great things, but at this price is is probably a pretty shaking thing. And, you know, maybe it goes higher, maybe it doesn't. It's probably best to lock in some profits. And that's not just employees of SpaceX, but think about all the venture funds and all the other professional investors that were early investors into SpaceX. Now, over the coming months, they are going to be able to sell their equity. So the way this works is that there's a lot of rules governing when um existing holders can can sell their stock after an initial public offering. And so over time over the coming months, you can expect that employees, early investors are going to want to monetize some of their u some of their some of their gains. Of course, not that they don't believe in the company, but you know, you got to hedge risk and maybe you want to go and finally buy that huge new yacht or something like that. So you can anticipate a flood of equity supply coming online in the coming months and and that's uh that's going to be a big headwind for SpaceX and if you look at how IPOs behave historically a lot of times even the really big companies that eventually become very successful uh after their IPO they they they don't do that well in the in the first year or so. Now in addition to that though we also have additional news that there's going to be more shares sold. So the past week we had SM uh Super Micro also come out and announced that they're going to be selling stock. Remember this is something this already happened right last week we talked about how Google uh suddenly had a big at the money offering and then Meta came out telling everyone they want to sell stock. So everyone knows that there's kind of a bubble here and so you got to be you know you got to try to cash out and take advantage of that. So SMCIS everyone that they were going to sell about 7 billion in equity and you know that really tanked their stock. They were down about 30% the past week. Um Super Micro of course 7 billion is a lot for for a company whose market cap isn't that large to begin with. So that did so that obviously had a big impact. Going forward though, I think we could expect maybe other big tech companies to come out and sell stock as they try to raise money, capitalize on their high stock prices and raise money to be able to finance what's happening in their AI buildout. Again, AI buildout is inherently something that's very uncertain. We don't really know what the returns would be, how successful this would be. So, it makes a lot of sense for a company to be able to finance that in a way that will share in the potential losses, right? If you borrowed in the debt markets, which some do to finance AI and the EI is not successful, then you still have to pay back what you borrowed in the debt market. So, that's pretty risky for a risky venture. But if it's a if you borrow in equity, uh then you know, stock prices go down. Oh, that's uh that's that's not their problem. Um and also of course in addition you have new IPOs from Anthropic and from um uh ChatgPT Open AI coming online. So another supply as well. So theres this nice chart from um Bloomberg showing based on Fed data that equity supply um so far has been ticking upwards and that's without counting the SpaceX IPO and all the other stuff that's coming down the pipeline. And if you look at this chart, you can see that over the past few decades, uh, equity supply tends to decrease in the US equity market, companies are buying back shares. So rather than issuing new shares, so what we're seeing right now is something that's that's something that's not that common. Uh, companies actually having net issuance. Now, looking at the big tech companies in particular, you can see that they've been big buyers of their own stock over the past past decade. Apple, Google, Amazon, all these guys make a lot of money and they keep buying back stock. Part of that of course is to neutralize um the share issuance they give to their employees. So that has been very supportive of their stock prices and if some of them are not doing that anymore because they need to spend money for AI there that that means a big pillar of support for their stock prices is going away. And of course, if they decide to issue more stock, then it becomes a headwind. So that's something to keep in mind in the coming months. Again, it's not the only thing that matters, but it is a very interesting variable that you can see that has changed in the equity market. We were munch companies were once shrinking their float. Now they're that now they're issuing more shares. And that's something um that we'll see uh how that turns out.货币政策前瞻：美联储的潜在鸽派惊喜
在地缘摩擦与流动性博弈的复杂交织中，新任美联储主席凯文（Kevin）即将迎来其首次议息会议。传闻指出，新任主席可能会对美联储的沟通风格进行重大改革，甚至可能放弃长期使用的点阵图（Dot Plot: 用于展示联储官员对未来利率路径预测的图表）。在伊朗局势出现转机之前，市场一度预期美联储将调整政策声明的措辞，即放弃暗示“下一步必然是降息”的既定立场，转而采取对降息与加息都保持开放的防守性中立姿态。
然而，地缘政治的边际改善彻底打乱了原有的鹰派逻辑。如果伊朗和平协议能够落地，且由此引发的能源价格下行趋势得以稳固，美联储内部主张“看透（look through）能源价格波动并维持相对宽松”的阵营将获得更为坚实的政治与数据支撑。这意味着，单纯因地缘政治因素带来的通胀降温，完全有可能在下周的会议上转化为一次出人意料的鸽派惊喜（Dovish Surprise）。在不确定性彻底消除之前，市场的定价将在这股政策微风中继续寻找平衡点。
Original English Source
Now, this coming week is the first Fed meeting for Cher Kevin, and so we'll see how that goes. Rumors suggest that he might want to change his communication style, maybe get away with a dot plot. We'll see what he talks about then. The expectation right now is that um the Fed change their statement such that their default policy is not signaling that the next policy move would definitely be a cut, but become more neutral. open have a statement that is open to both cuts and hikes as the next move. So that was the default heading in to the meeting. But with the change on the Iran front, should that prove durable, I think that really strengthens the hand for people at the Fed to look through um the rise in energy prices and such that I think that uh there's more of a potential for a dovish surprise simply due to these political developments. All right. So, we'll find out in a few days and I will be back to give you my thoughts. Talk to you guys then.📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: SpaceX, Federal Reserve