2026 科技展望:对话 Circle、CrowdStrike 与 AI 基础设施巨头 All-In Podcast 2026-01-25

达沃斯现场:2026 投资趋势

Jason: 大家好,欢迎回到达沃斯的 All-In 现场。我们正在世界经济论坛,不知出于什么原因,他们邀请了我,我在这里以 All-In 的风格——也就是“全接触”模式——采访所有最重要的人物。

Original English

Jason: All right, everybody. Welcome back to AllIn at Davos. We're here at the World Economic Forum. For some reason, they invited me and I'm here interviewing all the most important people in the All-In style, which is Full Contact.

Jason: 我认为我们大多数人都同意,进入 2026 年,稳定币人工智能和加密货币正在迎来巨大的复兴。我们很幸运地邀请到了我的两位朋友:来自 Coinbase 的 Brian Armstrong,以及 Circle 的首席执行官兼联合创始人 Jeremy Allaire。我们已经认识 30 年了。

Original English

Jason: I think most of us agree going into 2026, stable coins and AI, crypto having a huge resurgence and, we were lucky enough to get two of my friends, Brian Armstrong from Coinbase, and Jeremy, who's the CEO and co-founder of Circle. We've known each other for 30 years.

稳定币:互联网的货币协议

Jeremy Allaire: 是的,这太神奇了。

Original English

Jeremy Allaire: Yeah, it's amazing.

Jason: 这是一段漫长而奇妙的旅程。这也不是你第一次来达沃斯了。

Original English

Jason: What a long strange trip it's been. And this is not your first time at Davos. You've been here a couple times.

Jeremy Allaire: 我从 2008、2009 年经营上一家公司 Brightcove 时就开始来了。那是一个完全不同的时代,全球金融危机爆发,而有趣的是,就在那一周,比特币区块链的第一个区块诞生了。

Original English

Jeremy Allaire: Yeah, I started coming with my last company Brightcove back in 2008 2009. It was a very different time, there was great financial crisis breaking out everywhere, and notable, I always reference that same week was when the first block of the Bitcoin blockchain was minted.

Jason: 迷人。就像《权力的游戏》里说的,“混乱是阶梯”。对于像我们这样经历过三次危机的人来说,这是建设的好时机。

Original English

Jason: Yeah, it's fascinating. I think it's Game of Thrones. Chaos is a ladder. For guys like us who've been through this I guess three times now, this is the time to build.

Jeremy Allaire: 完全正确。约束对创业者有巨大影响。在 Circle 的历史上,我们经历了非凡的起伏。大约 13 年前我开始研究这个领域时,比特币刚刚出现。作为一名互联网技术专家,我认为它像是互联网缺失的基础设施层。互联网可以表示数据、媒体、软件,但没有“货币”的概念,也没有货币协议。

Original English

Jeremy Allaire: Yeah, totally. Constraints have a huge impact on what an entrepreneur does. In even in the history of Circle, we've had extraordinary up and downs. When I got started working on this almost 13 years ago, Bitcoin had emerged. From my perspective as an internet technologist, I was thinking about wow this seems like a missing infrastructure layer of the internet. The internet had ways to represent data, media, software but there was no notion of money on the internet and there was no protocol for money on the internet.

Jeremy Allaire: 当时我很清楚这一定会发生。但我并不认为全世界都会直接使用像比特币这样的新型商品货币。我的观点是我们需要一个桥梁,将现有的法币系统连接到加密网络,构建一种“互联网上的美元 HTTP 协议”,这就是后来的稳定币

Original English

Jeremy Allaire: It was very clear at the time that that was going to happen. My view is that we needed a bridge. We needed to connect the existing fiat system to crypto and to these new networks and build what we called like an HTTP for dollars on the internet and that was the idea and eventually that's called stable coins.

合规性:信任的基石

Jason: 我记得我们私下聊过。对于加密领域的多数人来说,去瑞士的楚格(Zug)或迪拜,无视监管和审计是更容易的选择。但你决定要做得“规规矩矩”。为什么不选择更快的离岸路径?

Original English

Jason: And I remember talking to you offline about this. It was the easier decision for most people in crypto to go to the Zug here in Switzerland or be based in maybe Dubai. And just yolo it and don't worry about regulations and don't worry about audits. You made a different decision. You told me, "No, I'm going to do this buttoned up and proper." And why didn't you go for the quick offshore path?

Jeremy Allaire: 如果你想建立一个全球通用的、互联网原生的金融系统,你必须与现有系统集成,必须与政策制定者合作。我在 2013 年 11 月就在参议院作证了。虽然早期我因此受到了很多仇恨,但如果你想让 BlackRock(贝莱德)或全球最大的科技公司使用它,或者让普通人信任数字钱包里的美元,你就需要这种结构来建立信任

Original English

Jeremy Allaire: If you want to build a new internet native financial system that the whole world uses, you have to integrate with the existing system and you have to work with policy makers to figure that out. I testified to the Senate in November of 2013. I got a lot of hate very early on. But if you want BlackRock to use it or you want the biggest tech companies in the world to use it, you end up needing to have this kind of structure around it for trust.

Jason: 现在的环境已经从威胁变成了机遇,但大银行似乎仍有顾虑,也许是因为你们走得太快、太专业了。

Original English

Jason: Now it's gone from a threat to an opportunity, but there is still a little reticence by some of the major banks because they're a little concerned that you're too good at what you do and you might be too far ahead.

Jeremy Allaire: 确实如此。这很像互联网的其他时代。当数字媒体出现时,传统媒体公司说“我们也能做”,但随后出现了一些在软件执行和经济模型上完全不同的公司,比如 CraigslistGoogle 广告网络Amazon,它们彻底颠覆了行业。我们现在正处于类似的阶段。

Original English

Jeremy Allaire: I think that that's there's some truth in that for sure. It's very similar to other eras of the internet. When digital media happened, there obviously were companies that built completely different types of utilities with completely different unit economics that kind of turned the product user experience and the economics upside down. We know those companies like Craigslist, Google ad network, Amazon. We're in a similar place right now.

监管法案与市场竞争

Jason: 银行现在感到威胁,是因为稳定币能产生奖励或利息。《天才法案》(Genius Act)规定可以有奖励但不能有利息,这似乎是立法妥协的结果。

Original English

Jason: The banks now are threatened by the concept of a stable coin having the ability to generate points incentives or interest. The Genius Act says hey you can have rewards but you can't have interest. Explain that to the audience.

Jeremy Allaire: 没错。根据《天才法案》,作为支付稳定币发行方,我们被禁止直接向持有者支付利息。欧洲和日本也有类似的规定。但我们是一个商业实体,我们产生收入,并与 RobinhoodCoinbaseVisa 等平台合作。这些平台希望通过奖励或忠诚度计划来激励用户,如果他们通过与我们的合作赚钱,他们就有能力这样做。

Original English

Jeremy Allaire: Under the Genius Act, Circle as a payment stable coin issuer we're prohibited from paying interest directly to stable coin holders. It's the same thing in Europe and Japan. But at the same time, we're building a business. We work with everyone from Robinhood to Coinbase to Visa. Those companies want to be able to have the ability to pay rewards or have loyalty programs. And if they're making money from the relationship with us, they want to be able to do that. And that's what the Genius Act captured.

Jason: 你的竞争对手 Tether 在离岸运营,规模是你们的几倍。传闻他们要推出美国版并接受审计,你怎么看这种竞争?

Original English

Jason: You're up against an offshore platform, Tether, who has maybe three to five times the amount under management. Rumor is they're going to do a US version and try to go legit and audited. How do you think about them as a competitor?

Jeremy Allaire: 《天才法案》的美妙之处在于它创造了一个公平的竞争环境。它定义了联邦法律,你必须接受国家银行监管机构 OCC 的监管。USDC 已经是最大的受监管稳定币网络。稳定币是网络业务,具有极强的网络效应。每当 StripeShopifyCash App 集成 USDC,这个网络的效用就会增加。我们已经在全球建立了深厚的流动性网络,这种护城河是很难逾越的。

Original English

Jeremy Allaire: The beauty of having the Genius Act is that it creates a level playing field. It defines a federal law that you have to be regulated by the national bank regulator, the OCC. USDC is by far the largest regulated stable coin network. Stable coins are network businesses. Every time an app integrates, like Cash App, Stripe, or Shopify, it adds utility to the network and it adds network effects. We've built out this incredible liquidity network, and that's defensibility.

网络安全:AI 时代的自动化威胁

Jason: 接下来我们请到的是 CrowdStrike 的首席执行官兼联合创始人 George Kurtz。George,在 2026 年,AI 对防御和进攻产生了深远影响。目前最有效的攻击向量是什么?

Original English

Jason: George Kurtz is here. He's the CEO and co-founder of CrowdStrike. Speaking of security, AI is going to have a profound impact on defense and also offense. What is the attack vector that AI is most effective at sitting here in 2026?

George Kurtz: AI 正在“批量制造”新的对手。过去你需要深厚的技术知识,现在你只需要询问 LLM(大语言模型)。攻击时间线被压缩了,攻击的复杂程度已经达到了国家级水平。我们现在看到的是自主恶意软件(Autonomous Malware)。

Original English

George Kurtz: Essentially you're minting new adversaries because you don't have to have all the knowledge that you had to have in the past. You can ask any number of LLMs. The attack timeline has been compressed. What we're seeing now is autonomous malware.

Jason: 请为观众解释一下什么是自主恶意软件。

Original English

Jason: Explain in plain English to the audience what that is.

George Kurtz: 传统的恶意软件需要“打电话回家”(phoning home)接受指令,这会留下特征。但现在的恶意软件只是一个提示词(Prompt),它被植入你的电脑后,会自主与 LLM 交互,根据你的电脑环境生成唯一的指纹。它不需要联系控制者就能自主寻找目标,就像一个不需要返回基地的“潜伏特工”。

Original English

George Kurtz: Traditionally, malware would phone home. Now these can run autonomously without ever phoning home, like a sleeper agent. They're prompts, not actually code. It will autonomously interact with an LLM and it will begin to prompt its way to getting to what it needs.

Jason: 这太可怕了。如何应对?

Original English

Jason: So scary. How does one counter that?

George Kurtz: 你需要 AI 来对抗 AI。CrowdStrike 利用 14 年积累的海量数据集训练我们自己的模型。虽然攻击方式在变,但“抢银行”的本质不变——你总得接触保险箱,总得带走财物。我们训练模型识别这些“攻击指标”(Indicators of Attack),无论你开什么车、穿什么衣服,只要你试图移动财物,我们就能抓住你。

Original English

George Kurtz: Well, you need AI to counter it. We've leveraged the large data set that we've amassed over 14 years to train our own models. There's only a few ways to break into a bank. At the end of the day, you got to get the money and you got to get out. We've trained our models to look for these indicators of attack.

内部威胁:北韩的“影子员工”

Jason: 我听说北韩黑客甚至利用 AI 获取美国的开发职位,说服美国人把笔记本电脑放在家里以便远程工作。

Original English

Jason: They were even using AI to get developer jobs in the United States, convince Americans to put laptops in their homes so that they could remote work. Talk to me about that attack vector.

George Kurtz: 我们是第一批发现这种行为的公司。我们发现有些“员工”实际上是北韩黑客。最讽刺的是,当我们通知客户时,有的主管甚至问:“我们必须开除他吗?因为他活干得真的很好。”

Original English

George Kurtz: We were one of the first to ever find that. We found 40 of them, now hundreds. The company investigated and said, "Yeah, you were right." But the guy's boss said, "Well, do we have to get rid of him because he did such good work?"

Jason: 既然远程工作带来了这么多风险,你们还支持它吗?

Original English

Jason: Remote work has opened up so many vectors. Do you support it in the company?

George Kurtz: 我们支持,但必须有最佳实践。最简单的一条:见见你雇的人。在 AI 时代,简历和 LinkedIn 个人资料都可以是 AI 生成的。现在最好的公司会在 HR 部门嵌入安全人员,进行前期过滤。

Original English

George Kurtz: We do. But best practice really is: Meet whoever you hire. With AI, resumes and LinkedIn profiles are AI generated. Best companies are actually embedding a security person in the HR group.

飞行汽车:从科幻走向现实

Jason: 接下来是 Archer Aviation 的首席执行官 Adam Goldstein。Adam,两年前你承诺过飞行汽车。我们什么时候能从曼哈顿飞到肯尼迪机场?

Original English

Jason: Adam Goldstein, CEO of Archer Aviation. Two years ago, you promised us we get flying cars. When can I go from Manhattan to JFK?

Adam Goldstein: 最难的部分是适航认证。特朗普总统发布了一项行政命令,要求监管机构加快审批进度。2026 年第一季度将宣布五个试点城市,夏季将开始定期飞行。这能让公众习惯这些飞行器。

Original English

Adam Goldstein: The hardest part is the certification. President Trump issued an executive order that was fast-tracking the program through the regulators. There are now five cities going to be announced in the first quarter and then we'll start flying in the summer.

Jason: 你们甚至买下了 Hawthorne 机场?

Original English

Jason: Archer Aviation bought an airport?

Adam Goldstein: 是的,我们花费了约 1.7 亿美元获得了控制权。它紧邻 SpaceXTesla 设计中心,距离 LAX 仅 2 英里。这让我们在交通极其拥堵的洛杉矶拥有了一个核心枢纽。

Original English

Adam Goldstein: We did. It's around $170 million for the master lease. It borders SpaceX and Tesla design center. It's about 2 miles from LAX. It gives us a hub in Los Angeles.

Jason: 这种飞行器比直升机更安全吗?

Original English

Jason: Are these much safer than helicopters?

Adam Goldstein: 它的冗余度极高。我们有 12 个旋翼,实际上是 24 个冗余电机。即使失去多个电机,我们还有 50 英尺长的机翼可以滑翔。直升机如果唯一的旋翼发生机械故障,那是灾难性的。我们的目标是比直升机安全一个数量级。

Original English

Adam Goldstein: The redundancy allows you to certify with zero single points of failure. We have 12 rotors, actually 24 redundant motors. We have a big 50ft wing, you can glide. A helicopter doesn't have that. It would be an order of magnitude safer.

AI 基础设施:能源即正义

Jason: 最后一位嘉宾是 Crusoe Cloud 的首席执行官 Chase Lochmiller。Chase,你们是第一批“新型云服务商”(NeoCloud),在大家抢购 H100 之前就布局了。

Original English

Jason: Chase Lochmiller, CEO and co-founder of Crusoe Cloud. You were part of an early contingent of NeoClouds.

Chase Lochmiller: 我们采取了“能源优先”的策略。在德克萨斯州的阿比林(Abilene),由于输电限制,可再生能源经常过剩,电价甚至是负的。我们在那里建立了一个 1.2 吉瓦的变电站,并现场安装了 10 台燃气轮机。

Original English

Chase Lochmiller: Crusoe is a business that's always taken this very energy first approach. In Abilene, Texas, there was an abundant amount of wind and solar that had issues with transmission. Power prices were actually frequently negative. We have a 1.2 gigawatt substation there and built a 350 megawatt gas plant on site.

Jason: 听说你们还从 Boom Supersonic 订购了价值 12 亿美元的发动机来发电?

Original English

Jason: You recently did something with Boom Supersonic?

Chase Lochmiller: 是的,他们重新设计了用于超音速飞行的涡轮机。我们意识到这可以用来发电,于是下了 12 亿美元的订单。这也能反过来资助他们的超音速客机研发。

Original English

Chase Lochmiller: Yeah, they had re-engineered this turbine for supersonic jet travel. We said, "Could we use that to generate power?" Now we're their first large purchase order for $1.2 billion of gas turbines to power AI infrastructure.

Jason: 你们还计划在 2027 年启用由 SMR(小型模块化核反应堆)驱动的 AI 工厂?

Original English

Jason: You're hoping to energize the first AI factory powered by an SMR in 2027?

Chase Lochmiller: 没错。我们的合作伙伴是 Oklo Energy。这个项目将在爱达荷国家实验室进行,因为它属于实验性技术,可以避开一些繁琐的监管限制。未来的 AI 算力密度将达到每机柜 1 兆瓦,这相当于一千户家庭的用电量。我们必须在能源基础设施上进行这种跨代式的创新。

Original English

Chase Lochmiller: Correct. The partner is Oklo Energy. It's going to be at the Idaho National Lab. We're ultimately going to get to one megawatt racks. One megawatt is roughly the amount of power of a thousand homes. We have over 45 gigawatts in our pipeline.

Jason: 感谢各位的分享。2026 年看起来将是技术落地最激动人心的一年。

Original English

Jason: Thanks for the time, everybody. 2026 looks like it's going to be the most exciting year for technology implementation.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: stablecoin-regulation autonomous-malware evtol-commercialization ai-infrastructure energy-sustainability