Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market futures. Thank you everybody for being here. I'm sorry I'm late in those last two minutes before you go live. Something always happens, but we're here. We're live. Thank everyone for being here. We got a lot to talk about, folks. We are entering into the third week of November for the equity markets, and the past two weeks have obviously been pretty choppy, I guess, is one word to describe it. We're at basically where we were two weeks ago on the S&P 500 at 672. The way we got there over the past couple of weeks was kind of crazy.

I mean in pre-markets on Friday it was just I mean there were there were some stocks that were getting back to April liberation day levels and it was just kind of crazy and then you had the bulls come in at 9:30 then you had a little bit more bearishness in day then we ended out kind of green kind of had the same story last week obviously we had a pretty choppy October as well so the continuation of that chop into November has been a trend.

And this week is going to be very important because this week we've got Nvidia earnings which is going to be you know just one of the biggest events of the entire year given we're getting into the end of the year and Nvidia is the most important company in the world.

I'm going to put the green or red poll for tomorrow in the chat. Futures are already green. They actually flipped green. I posted a screenshot on Twitter like four minutes ago and it was flat and I was like, "Oh, okay. Futures are flat. That's good enough because we'll talk about crypto. Crypto has been imploding over the weekend." So, I was like, "You know what? The fact that we have some flat futures, this is what I posted a couple of minutes ago." I was like, "We can we can we can handle this. If futures are going to be flat, that's not that big of a deal. And then literally three minutes after I posted, we go green. I don't know what happened. I don't know if there was a headline. I mean, I didn't see any crazy headline, but they flipped. Crypto kind of I mean, crypto is not green, but it's trying to develop a little bit of a green candle higher. And we'll talk about some of the stuff that could be going on with crypto.

But yeah, we got futures that are green, which is really nice to see. So this week is going to be really important because the past two weeks have been ugly just in terms of the choppiness back and forth. And so you know this week's going to be important to see can we start developing a bit of a bottom around that choppiness. Tom Lee has you know kind of predicted a couple weeks ago that the first two weeks of November would be choppy and that's kind of what we're getting. And so this is the latter half of November right before Thanksgiving. You know we got a bunch of holidays coming up.

And based on Fund Strap's note this morning, which we're going to take a look at, Bitcoin right there trying to get a little bit of a bounce off 92. It did hit 92,909. Ethereum hit 3003, was $3 away from going below 3,000, but did not get to those levels, 3100 right now on Ethereum. His argument is that he really does believe this end ofear chase for fund managers is going to take the S&P 5% higher, which would bring us to that 7,000 level. So, we'll do some analysis and see if that ends up playing out, but nonetheless, that's going to be one of the most important things that we have to take a look at.

On top of that, you got a lot of stuff going on in the I guess bifurcation of economy argument that we've been talking about for a long time. There's a lot of different things and data points that I've been looking at over the weekend around this idea of two different economies and the health of the consumer. you had the professor from from Ashwath or from NYU Ashwath Delmodorian. The dude went on the the ProfG G podcast. His podcast got like 200,000 views and I think he basically scared the [ __ ] out of everybody.

I mean it is an hour. I was listening it to it on the ride home yesterday in in in my car and he was I was just I was just listening to it as I was as the as I was driving and just it's just constant bearishness from this guy saying we are absolutely in an AI bubble. It was not a question of if we're in a bubble, it's a question of how aggressive the bubble is and if the bubble is going to pop. or not if it's going to pop, when it's going to pop, and to what extent it's going to pop. I mean, the guy recommended taking some of your money and putting it into collectibles. He even mentioned Pokemon cards. I told Steve about that. Steve couldn't believe it. Not saying that he is investing in Pokemon cards, but he mentioned that's an alternative asset to be curious of given the AI trade is so overexposed.

And I mean, again, I I just think there's two different perspectives on this. either you believe that's the case and as a result you're kind of you know more scared of the AI stocks and 20 um 26 is going to be bad for the NASDAQ or you think that's not real and you think that you know the Google trading at 27 times earnings is not a bubble even if some other parts of the market might feel like they're in a bubble. So we'll explore those arguments tried to do a bit of a research this week on those or this weekend and uh we'll kind of analyze what happened.

Elon also gave a keynote with Ron Baron and he talked about a bunch of different things in the world of AI. Uh Elon and Sunund went back and forth on Twitter and they said some things that I thought were relatively bullish. So, we're going to look at that. And then we have a bunch of macro charts that I want to pull up to also kind of show what we've got going on as we prepare for for 2026.

As did sell a lot of his Nvidia. I mean he technically he said Nvidia was overvalued back when what Nvidia was trading at I can't I forgot the pre-split price but it was about a year and a half ago and I think Nvidia has done like a 3x since then maybe like a 1.7x roundabout I got to calculate the numbers but you know he's been screaming overvaluation for a while obviously stocks have not necessarily uh fa you know faulted in this kind of overvaluation argument.

but I think the sentiment in general is starting to become more a fear I put out this poll as as well that got 9,000 votes on X. And the question was, hey, what do you think for 2026? Bullish, bearish, or flat. 41% of people said bull uh bullish, but 27% of people said bearish, and 32% of people say flat. If we were to have a 20% uh 2025 return, we're at 14% right now, so we got 6% to go. That would be three years back to back to back. If we have another 2026 bull run, that would be four years in a row of 20% gains, which is not impossible. It's just hard to see.

Uh but then again, do we get a bare market in the midst of this prolific bull run? I mean, it happened during that 1998, 1999 time. It ended up recovering until it topped out in 2000. But um is that possible? I think a lot of it is going to have to do with the data that we get and obviously the macroeconomic landscape.

And then the biggest thing to mention before we get into the thing that happened on Friday that I think was very excited for a lot of people or very exciting for a lot of people is uh this data around the Fed. I mean, the Fed probabilities for a rate cut went down below 50%, which is just really annoying. Right now, it's at 45.8%. Everything that I've looked at, and I'm not the greatest economist in the world, but everything that I've looked at is telling me we really need to cut rates.

And the idea that we would leave rates unchanged, if you look at subprime auto delinquencies, credit card delinquencies, layoff reports, and we're going to look a lot of a lot of this a lot of that stuff tonight, it signals that the Fed has absolutely lost their mind thinking that we can leave rates on like like legitimately lost their freaking mind. And it's going to be very interesting to see what happens.

Now, the way this probability goes back up to 80% like it was a couple weeks ago is if we get a pretty bad labor report on I think what is it, November 21st. It's in about five days we're going to get that labor report and I think that's, you know, going to be pretty obvious to the Fed to cut rates, but that's going to be one of the things that we all are going to have to keep our eyes out on to see what's going to end up happening with rates.

Having said that, the biggest story of Friday, we got six minutes until the overnight markets open was Birkshshire bought 18 million shares of the Goos. Lot to talk about here. Would love to know what people are thinking on this. Uh people are saying their estimated price is 243. They're getting that from a website that's just showing the reported price. None of those websites actually have the actual price. It is a $5 billion stake if you multiply 17.8 million times the current share price. I don't think his average is 243. It might be it might be a little bit lower, might be a little bit higher, but once we get the actual filings from Birkshshire, we'll be able to know exactly what price they paid.

As of now, all we know is that sometime in Q3, so August and September and July, they bought Google, which is pretty crazy because Buffett and Birkshshire, the philosophy of their firm is not to touch technology companies outside of Apple, but they touched Google, which I think is very exciting.

Here's a clip of Buffett from eight years ago explaining why they bought Apple, and we'll try to compare what that means to why Birchar is potentially buying Google. volatile stock. It kind of traded in this boom and bust cycle. Every time they had a new phone that came out, it would push the stock higher. If they didn't have a new release, it would drop. He said that it's still 65% of the business, but a lot of people are are maybe looking at it a little differently. And he wonders how you look at it. Is this a boom and bust cycle or is there something >> I don't you know, I'd like to see the new release do well or you know that. But I I do not focus on the sales in the next quarter or the next year. I I focus on the they won't tell you exactly how many, but hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of millions of people who practically live their lives by it. And if you look at that little uh piece of whatever it is, you that is some of the most valuable real estate in the world. I mean, that is Fifth Fifth Avenue will never come close to that. I mean it it is you've got you've got hundreds and hundreds of millions of people with loads of buying power and able to do business uh or learn information or whatever it may be and they and it's part of their habitable living. I mean they spend hours a day and it does all kinds of things for them. So that that real estate is is worth a fortune and it's nice to have it added to as they sell new phones and of course a lot of them are replacement phones but net

So, as you can see, Buffett never really, and there's plenty of other interviews that I'm talking about this, but Buffett never fully thought of Apple as a technology company. He thought of them as a consumer hardware play and that consumer hardware had mass distribution. As a result, you could build a lot of business on top of that mass distribution. And um the reason he ended up caging 20% for his career is because of Apple. In the last 10 years, they bought at a $500 billion market cap and they basically sold at around a $3 trillion market cap. They still have a decent amount of Apple, but they did sell 16% of their Apple stake in Q3 and they loaded up 2% of the portfolio in Google.

So to me, the takeaway here is that I think Buffett is or I shouldn't say Buffett, Birkshshire because he's retiring is validating a bit of the AI trade. And why do I think that? Well, they have more T bills than the Federal Reserve. They have $300 billion in cash and they never touch technology outside of Apple. I mean they have missed every single technological change revolution play and then the derivative stocks that were associated with that over the past 30 years.

Buying 18 million shares of one of the largest capex spenders on the planet which is going to spend about hundred billion dollars next year on data centers doesn't make sense if you think AI is a bubble. By the way, Google announced 40 billion more in data centers for Texas over the next 5 years on Friday. I mean, if you think the data center spend is stupid, if you think AI is not real, if you think the GPUs are fake, if you think there's going to be a ton of uh GPUs that are never used and all this capex spend is going to go down the gutter, you you wouldn't touch a stock like like Google.

Now, Google's probably a lot more resilient to um some type of of a bubble pop than like an Nvidia because obviously Nvidia gets all their revenue from chip sales. Google has a lot of other derivative businesses besides their TPUs. So, there's a lot of safety baked into Google. But nonetheless, if you think AI is fake and you think the NASDAQ's getting ready for a 20 to 30% correction, which is the chatter I've heard over the weekend, quite frankly, by a lot of different people saying they think NASDAQ's ready to go down in 2026 aggressively. I mean, why would Bergkshire put $5 billion into Google?

People like, "Oh, that's only 2% of the portfol." I mean, I don't know about you, but five billion is five billion. If Google's going to go down, by the way, they're FOMOing five billion basically at the top. I mean, they probably didn't buy literally Google at the top, but like it's been 20 years, right? They're not buying Google at a hundred billion dollar valuation. So, if you think the NASDAQ's got 20 30% down to go, which Google will survive that, it's just Google's stock price will also get hit pretty bad, you would get a better return in T- bills.

I mean, quite frankly, if you bought the 10-year Treasury in November of 2024 over Bitcoin, you have done better than Bitcoin, which is because Bitcoin's price action today officially went negative for the year. It's bouncing back up now, so now it's up like 1% for the year, but when it was at 93, it was negative for the year. So, why would they buy Google at anywhere near $200 to $250 if you thought there was some massive AI bubble that was getting ready to pop? I mean, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

And I also don't think you take a $5 billion position in something that you're going to flip in the next 90 days. Like, that's just not how Birkshshire operates. If that is how they start trading, then I think they're going to in in uh inquire a new class of investors because most people that buy Birkshshire are buying into a long-term thesis. That's how Birkshar has taught a lot of their disciples on investing and also this is a holding company that sells out entire arenas of shareholders.

So the amount of people that I think are going to buy Google just b I mean the amount of people that bought Google purely bec or Apple purely because of Buffett getting in I think that same effect could take place on Google and if they are getting ready to hold it for a long time then obviously that would be really important as well.

All right here we go overnight markets it is 8:00 p.m. Eastern. They are now open and let's see what we've got. Futures are green. S&P 500 up 26%. That goes green 673 69 Palunteer that's up about 1% after hours 17550. Nebus that's up 3%. 8602 IRM that's up 2.8%. Regetti that's up 3%. Dwave that's up 3%. Bit mine 1.74 that's up. Tesla that's up a little bit. Rocket Lab that's up 1.19%. Robin Hood that's up 1%. Robin Hood even with crypto coming down. Robin Hood going up is uh very good. Google of course Google making a move. There you go. 292 again. You've got millions I mean one could argue tens of millions of people that follow Bergkshire religiously. They are not going to fade Google if uh Bergkshire's next big bet is Google. So I think that alone is going to justify Google you know potentially going higher.

Obviously we'll see tomorrow what happens when the market opens but Google right there 293. That's up 5.6. 63%. Last time Google was touching the 290s was after that massive earnings that got disrespected a week later because we had the shutdown. But uh one could argue that they deserved to be at that since the earnings.

Yes, we do have that headline from Basent. Basent said that the US is planning uh to have the trade deal finalized with China by Thanksgiving. Now, Basent says a lot of things. Sometimes they're true, sometimes they're not. That could be another reason why the market uh is happy, but we're going to have to see if that ends up happening by Thanksgiving.

And yeah, Google right here, 293. I mean, look, does this thing run to 300 now that Buffett's in? Um, I don't know, but it would not surprise me. That is I I I don't think we can even I don't even think words can put into reality how serious it is for Birkshshire to stake in a company like this. Like, they're not buying some random insurance company. They're buying a company that is universally known. They're buying a company that's up 60% this year after the run. They didn't buy at 150 like, you know, or 130 last year. And they're buying a company they would never touch.

You know, Munger has some interviews from back in the day where he's talking about how Google was the biggest stock they missed and how he was so regretful that they never ended up investing Google. So, the firm has always had a positive view towards Google. It's just their anti-tech bias for, you know, whatever reasons they were not a fan of in technology investing that led them to to miss it. And so for them to finally admit, wow, Google 6.2% touching 294. The fact that they're finally admitting it's time to get in is quite incredible.

And I think that will be rewarded by the markets very nicely. Micron right there, that's up 3% as well. Gemini 3.0 next week as well. Yeah, you got a lot of the prediction markets saying Gemini 3.0 is going to be pretty phenomenal. I mean, you got some people speculating that Birkshshire got a little bit of an early taste of Gemini 3.0 you know, and uh they're buying it ahead of its release because they just know how powerful that model is going to be. You know, you got a lot of different AI researchers saying they think it's going to be the single best model on the planet.

First of all, I just want to play this quick clip from Tom Lee on Friday. Here's what he's thinking about the choppiness in the market and what he's expecting for the end of the month. >> All right, let's pivot to the market itself. Uh is your confidence at all shaken in in where we are and what you thought the prospects for an endofear run could be after what we've seen this week? Well, it's never fun to see markets um wobble and then stocks that are quite popular like AI and the quantum uh and nuclear come down so hard, but it is consistent with the idea that, you know, we were up six months through October. So, the market's overbought. We expected two weeks of consolidation, which is what we're getting. And then, of course, as you know, there's hawkish Fed talk. So, there's a bit of a tantrum the market's having. But between now and year end, we still have really good seasonals. The earnings have been good. Sentiment has flipped negative, Scott, as you could tell. I mean, the AI went to negative 17.5. So, I I'd say the riskreward is still really good for equities into year end. And yeah, I think the S&P will be over 7,000 by the end of the year. You know, in fact, maybe over 7,000 by the end of the month.

>> Okay, so you got Tom Lee that's still calling for an S&P 7,000, which was about 5% away. So, I mean, it's not impossible to imagine that that could take place. This was one of the charts from their newsletter this weekend and here's what they're predicting. So 2022 S&P 500 returned negative 19%. 23 you had 24%. 2024 you had 23%. 2025 they're estimating a 21% endofear gain for the S&P 500. We have about 16% of that right now. And uh Tom is expecting another 5% of that would happen in this fourth quarter chase by end of year.

The argument here that they're making is that uh fund managers are judged on their three-year performance. And if you do end up getting a bit of a run on the S&P 500, you know, if those three years end up checking out negative for certain fund managers or just like vastly underperforming against the benchmark, which which if the S&P is up 20% three years in a row, then you've got to be at least around that ballpark. That could lead to a chase. I think that is possible.

I think the opposite is also something that everyone just has to be aware of which is that if the market ends up coming down the benchmark becomes less attainable because obviously markets are coming down and you know clients would be willing to listen to the apology of not being able to deliver good returns because if the entire market's losing money then you know you can't be mad at your fund manager for losing money. So if you do get any level of a draw down because of something related to the macro and we'll talk about some of the different things that we have going on next week from a macro perspective then maybe that end of your chase doesn't happen. So realistically, you're going to have to see that chase start in the next week or so.

Uh Goldman Sachs right here said on last Friday we just had the biggest one-day draw down in high beta momentum since the deepseek debacle. This is Asper Goldens trading desk. And this makes sense, right? Your Oaklo stock, your quantum, your nuclear, uh, your cryptoplay, obviously, Micro Strategy, BMR, all of these got hit pretty bad. Uh, and and and worse than your average Mac 7, right?

Now the question is, is was that the bottom on Friday on all of these high beta momentum names? Or does the market say, you know what, we really, really do not want to trust these companies that are putting up no earnings, have no fundamentals, and quite frankly are just built off hype, a lot of that hype being constituted by retail investors. Do we want to just finally take it out and say, you know what, that money's got to go to Nvidia. That money's got to go to Google now that Buffett has validated Google.

My gut tells me Friday was a little bit more of the flush out. And you know, if if an oak low still goes down more, again, it affects a very small part of the market. does not affect the companies that really fundamentally matter. But if it's not, then I think people just have to be prepared for a little bit more of a draw down. And quite frankly, the companies that really do have fundamentals like a Rock Lab, if you see a big dip on that, those dips get eaten up.

Um, 2026, what's going to happen in 2026? Well, I found a chart this weekend, and this chart is not pretty. Let me just say that right here. Uh, it's an ugly chart, but nonetheless, it is data that we have to be aware of. Every midterm year since 1950, every single one has had an S&P 500 peakto trough decrease of average of 16%. I mean, it's kind of spooky how every freaking midterm year this ends up happening. The last one you had was in 2022, 25.4% down. Obviously, that was pretty ugly. And uh you know, we all live through that one. 2018 was 19%, 2014 was 7% and on goes the declines. The question is, does that happen in 2026?

Now, the one year later return is on average 33%. So, you make up all of the return that you had lost in the previous year and then it doubles on average going into the next year. Um question is, you know, do we end up seeing that in 2026? And I think obviously one chart is not everything. There's, you know, plenty of different historical precedences that have been uh violated in 2024 and 2025.

And then I found another chart right here that kind of goes at odds with this to an extent. Um, after a shutdown, a year later, the S&P 500 is up 19 out of 22 times and up better than an average of 12.7%. So, the first chart says that in a midterm year, the S&P 500 is down 17% on average. The next chart says after a shutdown the year later, which would be 2026 because we just had the longest shutdown ever, you're up on average 12.3%. So you got two different conflicting data reports that are going to be going against each other going into 2026.

Here is what Michael Sailor had to say about what's going on with Bitcoin. >> How low you think Bitcoin goes in the cycle right here? If it goes any lower, where does it go? >> I think it's pretty stable where it is right now. I mean, most of the liquidation selling is out of the system. I think we should rally from here >> and then where what do you think it ends? I DON'T BUT I don't believe in four year cycles any they might have had some credence in the first 12 years but I right now >> the fouryear cycle is somehow based on the idea that 225 bitcoin a day get taken out of the supply after the next havinging that's $22 million or $20 million of buying trust me $20 million of buying the market traded hundred billion yesterday 20 million is is not even a third order issue at this point >> yeah the dynamics in the market are much more that you know Jerome Pal thinks he wants to hold interest rates higher for longer right it's macroeconomics it's political it's structural when you know when IBIT's derivatives market went from 10 billion to 50 billion it did that in four weeks I mean so so those kind of things when JP Morgan you know offers 10 or hundred billion dollars of loans against Bitcoin that will dwarf the four-year cycle

So, you have a bit of a breakaway from uh Sailor in this four-year cycle. Here's what uh Hunter Horesley said. He's the director of the Bit Wise ETF. He says, "Common view, people believe in four-year cycles and that 2026 will thus be a down year for Bitcoin. First order effect, people thus sell in 2025 to avoid the down market year. Second order effect, the 2025 sellers causing 2025 to be a down year, thus breaking the four-year cycle. Third order effect, 2025 is open season. Four-year cycle has been broken.

I personally just think all the institutionalization of crypto as Sailor was saying the fact that people are or the banks are getting ready to give people loans against their crypto particularly their Bitcoin as collateral goes to show you how much an institution like JP Morgan which you know Jamie Diamond has hated crypto for the past decade is starting to legitimize the asset class because if you get a loan against an asset the bank obviously thinks the asset has enough value to let you borrow money against it and I think that's going to be a lot more exciting

but nonetheless crypto performance this year has not been that strong in the face of that. Take a look at this. Speaking of 13Fs, Harvard's endowment fund, their largest position and their biggest position increase in Q3 was IBIT, the Bitcoin ETF from Black Rockck. They added $326 million to that in the Q3. Um, that's not easy to do. You know, when you're an endowment from Harvard, you know, you're supposed to be just preserving the money, buying the stuff that's basic, not getting in trouble. you know, if Google goes down by 10% and you buy Google, no one's going to blame you. The fact that they're taking IBIT as their number one position is quite incredible, especially given the fact that um you know, a lot I imagine a lot of the Harvard bit uh economic professors don't believe in Bitcoin.

So, I mean, you got Elon posting a more optimistic view of AI. I know we've been talking a lot about the labor market and what's going to happen in the world of AI if the labor market becomes commoditized via robots and, you know, LLMs, etc. And I think that's still a question around what happens to the labor market. But you got Elon with the optimistic view of hey we are going to eliminate the cost of goods being so high by massive massive levels of deflation because the robots or the AI at large is going to be doing all the things that we paid humans to do and as those costs significantly go down that will be a way in the mind of Elon to potentially eliminate forms of poverty.

And you know, this optimistic view is going to be very important by a lot of the thought leaders of AI that exist in our society because you had a politician over the weekend, Ro Kana, who from California, uh, who made an argument that said, "We need to seriously think about all of the AI innovation that's going on. um and we need to potentially stop some of it if it's going to lower jobs. And you had David Friedberg come out with a super long response and basically say that you're an idiot and that there's no way that we can allow technology to stop progressing just to be able to uh save jobs, which is obviously the argument that a lot of the billionaire class and a lot of the arguments that are in the shareholder class are going to be promoting because pretty obvious AI increases margins. Replacing humans increases margins and increased margins increases shareholder returns. Uh, but you're going to have politicians that are going to come out against it. You really will. Look at this Roana. We need eliminations or regulations that prevent companies from using AI to eliminate jobs to extract greater profits. Artists that these companies need to have a say in how AI is deployed. They should share in the profits and there should be a tax on mass displacement.

I think it is inevitable that there will be a politician that rises to power, whether it's a Democrat or Republican, off the idea of protecting people's jobs by regulating the crap out of the AI companies or at least taxing the crap out of them to make sure that what if Amazon saves, you know, $300 billion over 10 years by replacing two million workers with robots that some of that 300 billion comes to the government and gets redistributed in some way. But it just seems inevitable.

I think it makes a lot of sense for people to have hedges. I mean, pick whatever stock you want to hedge against, but especially if you have a, you know, if you have a huge Nvidia position, I think it makes sense to have an Nvidia hedge. simple as buying puts on Nvidia. Um, if you have a huge, you know, leveraged position against the market being long and you're up 300% over the past couple years, it I don't think it hurts you to buy some puts on the spy just in case things don't go as well. I think I I I I don't think the plan the way I'm thinking of it right now for 2026 and again all six of these things are very reasonable to happen and you know that could create like like a bare market scenario. I don't think the argument is to get out of the markets. I think that's too extreme and that's what Ashwath We'll talk about Bill Aman. I see you guys talking about him. Bill Aman had a hell of a tweet this weekend. We'll talk about that. But um I I I I I I think Ashwath on the the Profod basically scared everybody for an hour and a half and said you should just get the hell out of markets because we're in a bubble. And I think that's too extreme. I think that's a bit too arrogant and that's undermining the potential of not knowing what you don't know.

these companies might end up continuing to outperform like they have over the past couple years because AI is as serious as it is and it's as important as it is. But that doesn't mean to say labor market can't fall off a cliff. Um the uh tariff implication of that being reversed could have you know issues in the market. Inflation potentially flare up again and the Fed might not end up cutting for the next nine months. I mean like there's a lot of different arguments for why I think having a hedge in 2026 makes sense.

I think the game plan for this week is what data do we get from the BLS? Uh can market stabilize and can we not violate the lows that we had last week 663 on the S&P 500? What happens to Google as the S&P 500 now is going to get a bit of a surge to or potentially get a bit of a surge if Google holds on to this momentum and if you know potentially Google touches 300 Google right here up 6% again 6% on a $3.3 trillion company is a very big move. So that's going to have a big move across the entire market if that holds itself. And then number four, Nvidia earnings. I'll be live with Jose 3:30 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday. That is going to be a massive, massive quarter. Honestly, as someone who made Nvidia one of my top three positions this year, I have zero anxiety going into this earnings because I think they're going to absolutely demolish the quarter. Like, I really don't think this is going to be a quarter where people need to be scared. I'm more concerned about the labor market data because, yeah, I think could Nvidia, you know, end the year at around 210, 220? I think that's possible. I think it's probably going to be there around that 195 205 range and that's bullish you know more conservatively probably in the 180s to 190 range but none of it matters if we are starting to see a deterioration in the labor market so I think Nvidia will be fine

So, for those that didn't see the news, Bill Aman, wealthy billionaire hedge fund manager, I hear from many young men that they find it difficult to meet young women in a public setting. In other words, the online culture has destroyed the ability to spontaneously meet strangers. As such, I thought I would share a few words that I used in my youth to meet someone that I found compelling. I would ask, "May I meet you?" before engaging further in a conversation. I almost never got a no. It inevitably enabled the opportunity for a further conversation. I met a lot of really interesting people this way. I think the combination of proper grammar and politeness was the was the key to its effectiveness. You might give it a try. And yes, I think it should work for women seeking men as well as samesex interactions. Just two cents from an older happily married guy concerned about our next generation's happiness and population replacement rates.

Look, I don't know if you go up to a girl at a bar and say, "May I meet you?" if that's your ticket to interacting with her a little more, a little more. Maybe it is. Maybe it is. Maybe that's actually effective. But the amount of tweets over the weekend that have been going viral, and Bill Aman's loving this. I mean, he retweeted this. I mean, this was hilarious.

you know he is speaking to something that we are having a broader issue in society which is this idea of of of of very less social interaction I mean if you look at the charts on the first of all the most obvious chart on this is is is population collapse I mean even it's not in just in Japan and the United States as well like just not having as many people interact with each other anymore for I mean it got to the point where Scott Galloway who I don't agree with him on everything but uh he has been talking about this loneliness epidemic a decent amount and his argument was you should you should uh um you should be okay with ruining your liver and and getting drunk in order to meet somebody and have social interaction because that is what that is what you need to actually you know not be lonely. Here's what he said over the weekend. >> The second worst thing to happen to young people is remote work. Uh one in three relationships begin at work. This is where you find friends, mentors, and mates, and especially young men need the guardrails of a workplace. But in my view, the worst thing that's happened to young people is the anti-alcohol movement. I've had Hubberman on who I'm a big fan of and ate on and my point is that the risks to your 25-year-old liver are risk are are dwarfed by the risk of so social isolation in some. Think of all the amazing relationships you've had in your life and be honest. Did alcohol play a role in some. Get out, drink more, and make a series of bad decisions that might pay off.

I don't know if I fully agree with that. I don't think you have to be drunk to uh meet people. Yeah, mocktails do the job. Mocktails do the job. From personal experience, I can tell. But um his broader argument is just social isolation is a big deal. And so that's why you have Bill Aman tweeting about this stuff because, you know, a lot of the older folks are recognizing how hard it is for younger people to meet and as a result, you know, they are uh encouraging people to just go up and and and and talk more with each other, which I think is not horrible advice. I don't know if you have to be drunk to do that, but nonetheless, that's one of the arguments that's taking place.

Daily earnings, Nvidia is at more like 40 times. So, valuations are very differently. Very different. Most important however Cisco peaked at 150 or 180 times trailing earnings. Nvidia is at more like 40 times. So valuations are very differently very different. Most important however is that the year 2000 internet bubble or telecom bubble was defined by something called dark fiber. Um and [clears throat] if you're a veteran of of the year 2000 you'll know what that was. But dark fiber was literally fiber that was laid down in the ground and not lit up. Fiber is useless unless you have the optics and switches and routers uh that you need on either side. Um you so I vividly remember, you know, companies like Level 3 or Global Crossing or WorldCom would come in and they say, "We laid 200,000 miles of dark fiber this quarter. This is so amazing. The internet's going to be so big. Um you know, we can't wait to light these up." At the peak of the bubble, 97% of the fiber that had been laid in America was dark. Contrast that with today. There are no dark GPUs. All you have to do is read any technical paper and that one of the biggest problems in a trading run is that GPUs are melting. And there's >> this was a really compelling point to me because every person you listen to, every earnings we see, there's not enough GPUs. I mean, Nvidia is literally pressuring TSMC to increase the wafer uh capacity by 50% because their month- over-month demand is exceeding the amount of supply that they have. So, I mean, there is a reasonable argument to say the.com bubble with all this dark fiber never ended up being used, which is what inevitably caused a lot more companies to crash. And I know there's more nuance to it, but that was a big part of it. In this part of a technological revolution, every GPU companies can get their hands on, they are using, which means there is a reason for why they're buying them in the first place. A very simple way to kind of cut to the heart of all of this, it is the return on invested capital of the biggest spenders on GPUs who are all public. And those companies since they ramped up capex have seen call it a 10point increase in their ROIC's. So, thus far, the ROI on all the spending has been really positive. It's a really it's an interesting and open debate about whether or not it will continue to be positive with the quantum of spend we're going to have on Blackwell. I personally think it will, but there's no debate that thus far the ROI on AI has been really positive and valuation wise. We're just not in a bubble.