引言与嘉宾介绍

David Bonnie: Jeff Park今天加入我们。他是Bitwise资产管理公司的Alpha策略主管和投资组合经理。我们将讨论他关于加密货币和比特币相关市场的看法。欢迎来到节目，Jeff。很高兴见到你。我叫David Bonnie。我们之前邀请过你的同事Matt Hougan，那次访谈非常精彩。大家应该去看看那次访谈。我们当时在纽约采访了他，链接在下方。但这次我们想听听你对比特币和加密货币的看法。他在推特上非常受欢迎，很多人关注他。他最受欢迎的帖子之一是关于“激进投资组合”。什么是激进投资组合？

David Bonnie: Jeff Park joins us today. He is the head of Alpha Strategies and portfolio manager at Bitwise Asset Management. We'll be talking about his views on the markets relating to cryptos and Bitcoin. Welcome to the show, Jeff. Good to see you. My name is David Bonnie. We had your colleague uh Matt on the show, Matt Hougan, and um he was great. People should check out that interview. We had him on New York, links down below. But uh we like to get your outlook on uh on Bitcoin and cryptos. He's super popular on Twitter and a lot of people follow him. And one of the most popular post was the radical portfolio. What is a radical portfolio?

“激进投资组合”的起源

Jeff Park: 这是一个很好的问题。我大半生都在学习传统经济学和金融学。当我2008年开始我的职业生涯时，你可以想象，刚入职两个月，全球金融危机就爆发了，我学到的一切都被抛诸脑后。接下来的几十年，我们持续面临着教科书中从未提及的金融抑制。所以，“激进投资组合”实际上是我多年来个人经历的产物，旨在重新构想一个真正适合未来一代的投资组合配置理论。

Jeff Park: That's a great question. Um so I grew up learning about traditional economics and finance that most of my life and when I started my career it was 2008 so you can imagine at the very beginning two months into my job the global financial crisis happened and everything that I ever learned was thrown out the window and we would continue to then have decades of financial repression in ways that there was no textbooks. So the radical portfolio was actually something that I personally experienced in my years to reimagine what a real portfolio allocation theory should look like for the future generation.

传统60/40投资组合的失效

Jeff Park: 我们很早就被教导关于60/40投资组合 (60/40 Portfolio) 的知识。60%的固定收益资产和40%的股票用于增长。这种平衡的投资组合应该能以风险调整后的方式为你带来多元化的上行收益。但我认为我们正在意识到60/40实际上已经行不通了，因为现在债券 (Bonds) 和股票 (Equities) 的相关性比人们预期的要高得多。所以，激进投资组合是一种全新的方式，来重新构想一个多元化的投资组合应该是什么样的——60%的某种资产和40%的另一种资产，以及我们如何重新设定这些风险因素的参数。这就是我激进投资组合理论的核心起源。

Jeff Park: We're all taught about 60/40 pretty early on. 60 fixed income, 40 equities for growth. And that balanced portfolio should give you a diversified upside capture in a riskadjusted manner. And what I think we're realizing is 6040 actually isn't working because bonds and equities are more correlated in fact now than people have ever expected them to be. So the radical portfolio is a whole new way to reimagine what should be a diversified portfolio 60% of something and 40% of something else and how do we reparameterize those risk factors and that's the essential genesis of my radical portfolio theory.

David Bonnie: 那么你是如何配置的？新的理论是什么？

David Bonnie: So how do you allocate what is the new theory then?

Jeff Park: 我们必须从一个问题开始：为什么传统的60/40正在瓦解。当你问这个问题时，你会发现，在全球金融危机之后，证券和资产的大部分价格行为都是由政府干预和跨境资本流动引起的。由于整个全球货币秩序体系一直在进行大规模的财政支出，GDP (国内生产总值) 概念带来的扭曲已经发生了巨大变化。当GDP将政府支出等同于增长时，你可以想象，政府支出真的是我们想要捕捉的那种增长吗？因此，债券开始看起来像风险资产，而人们过去认为债券是避险资产。

Jeff Park: So we have to start with the question of why is traditional 60/40 breaking apart. And when you uh ask that question what you find is that after the global financial crisis most of the price action that is arising out of securities and assets is due to government intervention and crossber flows. So because of the great fiscal expenditures that the entire global monetary order system has been embarking on, the distortion that is coming from the concept of GDP has changed massively. So when GDP includes things like government expenditure as a way to imagine growth, you can kind of imagine is government spending actually growth in the way that we want to capture it. So bonds are starting to look like risk assets in ways that people used to think bonds were riskoff assets.

合规性资产 vs. 抵抗性资产

Jeff Park: 一旦这种觉醒发生，问题就变成了：60/40实际上是100%的某种东西，那这100%是什么？我认为，这是100%的合规性资产 (Compliance Assets)。这些是我们在这个富足世界中交易的资产，有很多渠道可以通过券商接触到它们，有金融化，有杠杆，这基本上是我们所知的全球套利系统的基础。那么，对此的终极对冲是什么？什么是能够对冲这100%合规性资产的40%？我称之为抵抗性资产 (Resistance Assets)。

Jeff Park: So once that awakening happens the question is 6040 is actually 100 of something and what is that 100 and the argument that I would make is that it is 100% of compliance assets. These are assets that we are trading in the world of abundance where there's a lot of ways to access it through brokerages and there's financialization there's leverage and this is essentially the underpinning of the global carry system as we know it. So what's the ultimate hedge for that? what is the 40% that can hedge the 100% of compliance and that I call the resistance assets.

Jeff Park: 现在我们讨论的是那些实际上难以获取的资产。这些不是你能在股票市场上买到的东西。它们在本质上有些不可替代性 (non-fungible)，它们实际上不能被杠杆化。它们是独一无二的。所以这40%必须在我们所知的全球套利系统之外。这赋予了它独特的价值。一个完美的例子就是黄金 (Gold)。当我说黄金时，我不是指GLD这个ETF (交易所交易基金：一种在证券交易所交易的投资基金，追踪特定指数、商品或资产)，我指的是实物金条。因为这代表了抗审查的能力，让你能脱离金融生态系统。比特币 (Bitcoin) 也代表了一种表达拥有抵抗性资产观点的方式。

Jeff Park: So now we're talking about assets that are actually difficult to access. These are not things you can buy on stock markets. These are actually somewhat nonfgeible in nature in where they actually cannot be levered. They're one of a kind. So the 40% has to be outside the system in the global carry system as we know it. And that's what gives it a defining unique value. So perfect example of that is gold. And when I say gold, I don't mean GLD, the ETF. I mean physical gold bars, right? Because that represents the ability to be censorship resistant in ways that you remove yourself from the financials ecosystem. Bitcoin also represents a way to express a view on having a resistance asset.

Jeff Park: 我列出了一系列可以符合这个标准的不同另类事物。这些东西可以包括高端艺术品，独一无二的艺术品，它们真正不可替代，真正有价值，无法复制。这些东西能够保值，因为稀缺性价值非常重要。而那100%的合规性资产，即债券和股票，之所以不那么有价值，是因为它们总是在被“印刷”出来。其他类别包括收藏品，比如宝可梦卡牌，虽然听起来像个笑话，但对某些人来说确实保值。这个类别可能还会演变成奢侈品手袋，比如爱马仕的铂金包，这些东西因为稀缺性而同样有价值，并且保值能力实际上比一些传统资产要好得多。

Jeff Park: And so I list a variety of different alternative things that can fit the profile of what that should be. These things can include uh you know high-end art, one-of-a-kind artworks that really are irreplaceable and truly truly valuable that cannot be replicated and those things retain value because the scarcity value is actually really important. So the 100% compliance of bonds and equities, the reason why they're not that uh valuable is because they're printed all the time. So other categories include things like collectibles, um, Pokemon cards in ways, even though it's a joke, do retain values in ways for certain people. And that category might evolve into luxury handbags like the Birkens of the world where those things are equally valuable because of the scarcity and hold value actually much better than uh, some other traditional assets would.

David Bonnie: 听起来像一个另类投资组合。可以这么看吗？

David Bonnie: It sounds like an alternative investments portfolio. Is that one way to look at it?

Jeff Park: 正是如此。但这种另类投资的方式并不完全符合我们所熟知的语言。没人会把购买宝可梦卡牌、手袋或艺术品这些稀缺资产作为多元化投资组合的方式，因为它不可交易，对吧？这些不像ETF，你可以购买以获得对奢侈品或生物科技知识产权或法律知识产权的指数敞口。这些基本上是稀缺的东西，而稀缺性是有价值的。我认为这是我想强调的要点，即在一个金融抑制如此严重的世界里，我们这一代人睁大眼睛，寻找那些不是被制造出来的富余之物，这一点非常重要。这就是为什么我认为比特币在今天对每个人都尤其重要。

Jeff Park: Exactly. But it's alternatives in a way that isn't fitting nicely into the the language that we know how to speak of. No one talks about buying Pokemon cards or handbags or artwork or these scarce assets as a way to diversify your portfolio because it's not tradable, right? These are not like ETFs that you can buy where you have an index exposure to luxury goods or you can't buy biotech IP rights or legal IP rights in easily accessible ways. These are essentially scarce things and scarcity is valuable and I think that's the main point that I'm trying to drive which is in a world where there's so much financial repression it's really important that all of us in our generation open our eyes widely and look for the things that are not manufactured abundance and that's why Bitcoin I think is especially important today for everyone.

稀缺性如何创造价值

David Bonnie: 我知道这听起来有点滑稽和好笑，但是寻找价值是有一套方法的，对吧？你用来评估那张宝可梦卡牌的方法，同样可以应用于一个另类币或者一件艺术品，对吧？给我们讲讲这背后的思考过程。

David Bonnie: I know this is like facitious and funny, but like there is a methodology to looking for value, right? You could the same methodology that you used to apply to that Pokemon card can be applied to an alt for example or a piece of art, right? Walk us through the thought process here.

Jeff Park: 是的，稀缺性的基本原则、可收藏性原则、合意性原则。是的，绝对的。主要原则是它必须是稀缺的、硬资产，无法被制造出来。如果它会随着时间推移而变质，从而供应量减少，那就更好了。例如，皮卡丘宝可梦卡牌之所以有价值，不是因为它们数量多，而是因为很多卡牌在其生命周期中消失了，或者品相变差了。这些因素增加了价值。这也是为什么精品葡萄酒是一个人们用来储存价值的重要类别，因为酒也会随时间变质。所以如果你能完美地保护它，价值就会指数级增长。

Jeff Park: Yeah, the essential principles of scarcity, principles of um collectibility, the principles of desiraability. Yeah, absolutely. The main principle is that it has to be scarce, hard assets in ways that it cannot be manufactured. Um, it's even better if it can actually deteriorate over time, so they disappear and the supply decreases. For example, the reason the Pikachu Pokemon card is valuable isn't because they were so many of them. It's because many of them also disappeared throughout the life of its course or the conditions worsened. So those things increase value. It's also why fine wine is a huge category that people buy as a way to store value because wine also deteriorates over time. So if you protect it and perfect it, the value is exponentially higher.

Jeff Park: 所以稀缺性是最重要的。我还会说，这些资产具有某种程度的不可替代性，你无法轻易对其施加杠杆。因为股票和固定收益的大部分价值都来自信贷系统。当涉及到应用杠杆的能力时，这是一种低波动性的情况，主要是因为资产本身是高波动性的，而这正是我们寻找的内在品质。我们想要高波动性的资产，因为它有内在的、内生的表现能量，而不是为了波动而被人为制造出来的，后者正是我们所知的金融体系的诞生方式。

Jeff Park: And so scarcity is the most important thing. I would also argue that these assets have some elements of nonfgeibility where you can't apply leverage very easily and because so much of the value driven from equities and fixed income come from the credit system. This is a low volatility kind of situation when it comes to the ability to apply leverage mostly because the asset is high volatility and that is actually the inherent quality we're looking for. We want assets that are highly volatile because it has inherent endogenous energy for performance and it isn't being manufactured to be volatile for the sake of it when the asset itself is not very volatile which is the entire birthing of the kind of financial system as we know it.

抗审查性与真实所有权

Jeff Park: 我应该提一下使这些资产有价值的第三个要素：它必须在某种程度上具有抗审查性 (censorship resistant)。这就回到了选择退出系统的概念，在债券和股票的世界里，你处在一个通过券商交易这些资产的系统中。你通常不是这些证券工具的托管持有人。即使你拥有微软的股票，它通常也不在你的名下，而是在托管人代表你的名下。所以真实所有权 (true ownership) 非常重要。这就是为什么实物黄金与GLD ETF的对比很重要，因为如果你真的相信可以多元化投资以脱离我们所知的合规世界，那么这些资产将保留更多价值，因为不处于那个系统之中、它实实在在地属于你，这才是使其有价值的关键特征。

Jeff Park: I should mention the third piece of what makes these valuable is it has to be somewhat censorship resistant. So this goes back to the notion of opting out of the system where bonds and equities you're in a system where you're trading these to brokerages. You're generally not the custodial holders of these securities instruments anyway. Even if you own Microsoft stock, it's generally not in your name. It's in actually the custodian's name on behalf of your name. So true ownership is really important. This is why uh gold versus GLD ETF is important and it's because if you really believe there's diversification away from the compliance world as we know it then these are the assets that's going to retain more value because the virtue of not being in the system where it's tangibly yours is the key feature of what makes it valuable.

价格与价值的思辨

David Bonnie: 我想问你，什么是价值？是什么创造了价值？昨天，Peter Schiff坐在这里说：“你们这些比特币玩家只是在交易虚无。你们在购买虚无。” 你会如何回应？

David Bonnie: I want to ask you so what is value? What creates value? Yesterday, Peter Schiff was sitting there. He said, "You Bitcoiners are just trading nothing. You're buying nothing." What how would you respond to that?

Jeff Park: 我会用一句著名的格言来回应。这不是我创造的，但我很喜欢，那就是：如今的每个人似乎都知道万物的价格，却对一无所知。我们生活在一个信息泛滥的世界，对吧？我们看到所有这些交易活动的逐笔报价和高频交易机会，由于交易的动态性，这似乎暗示了价值的存在。但现实是，这些东西只是交易动态中的瞬间，并不真正意味着那是它永久的最终价值。因此，那些真正有价值的东西有时并不交易。有时，最有价值的东西恰恰是需要长期持有的。想想现在的亿万富翁们如何投资像体育俱乐部和特许经营权这样的东西。这些东西不交易。它们实际上是一生一次的代际交易，价值在其中被创造和转移。所以我认为人们常常将价值与价格混淆。但区别在于，价格是某人愿意为某物支付意愿的反映，而价值是其内在固有的东西，你并不总能知道，直到有机会去体验它。

Jeff Park: Yeah. I would respond with a famous adage. I did not coin this, but one that I love, which is that everyone these days seems to know the price of everything, but knows the value of nothing, which is that we live in a world of so much information, right? We see tick by tick of all these trading activities and high frequency trading opportunities where it seems to intimate a sense of value because of the transactional dynamic. But the reality is those things are just moments in times of transactional dynamics where it doesn't truly mean that's its terminal value forever. And so things that are actually truly valuable sometimes do not trade. Sometimes the most valuable things actually are meant to be held for a long time. So think about how billionaires these days invest in things like sports clubs and franchises. These things don't trade. They're actually, you know, once in a lifetime generational transaction for which value is created and transferred. Um, so I actually think people often confuse value being related to price. But the difference is price is the reflection of someone's intention to pay for something whereas the value is actually something that inherently is worth which you don't actually always know until there's a time to experience it.

年轻一代对金融体系的看法

David Bonnie: 价值是否需要一个共识，比如大多数人都承认这东西值2000美元，还是说所有人都可能错了？

David Bonnie: Does it have to be a consensus like the majority of population recognize that this thing cost $2,000 or everyone could be wrong.

Jeff Park: 是的，这就是问题所在。价值在某种程度上最终取决于你的个人偏好，这就是为什么老年人喜欢黄金，而年轻人喜欢比特币。在某种程度上，这些是个人选择。但我对比特币以及这些抵抗性资产如此乐观的另一个原因是，我认为年轻人已经凭直觉感到，大部分金融经济都有点被操纵了。所以他们感觉股票市场总体上是不健康的。我确实认为，在某些方面，我们的系统在推广一个健康、稳健、公平实践的市场叙事上失败了。

Jeff Park: Yeah, that's the thing. It's um value is ultimately dependent at some level on your personal preference and that's why older people love gold and young people love bitcoin and at some level these are personal choices but the other reason why I'm so optimistic about uh bitcoin and generally these resistance assets is because I think young people have already intuited most of the financial economy is a little bit rigged. So they have this sense of the stock market generally not being healthy. And I actually do think that in some ways our system has failed in promoting that narrative of a healthy robust market of fair practice.

Jeff Park: 想想现在的趋势，例如，零日期权 (Zero-day-to-expiration options) 占了标普500和纳斯达克上市期权交易量的50%以上。零日期权，对吧？这些简直就是彩票。而这种超级金融化在监管机构的默许下发生，说明市场变得多么像赌场。我认为当年轻人看到这种情况时，他们的反应是完全自然的，他们会说：“我不想玩那个游戏，因为我并不真正懂，但我会买我了解和喜欢的东西，因为至少那对我来说是有价值的。”而其他年轻人也说那对我来说也有价值。我认为这最终创造了我们所理解的价值。

Jeff Park: Think about the trends of for example nowadays zero day expir options are more than 50% of the trading volume of your S&P 500 and NASDAQ listed options. Zero day expir options, right? These are literally lotto tickets. And the fact that this hyperfinancialization is happening with regulators consent shows you it's becoming so casino. And I think when young people see that happening, their reaction is totally natural to say, I'm not going to play that game cuz I don't really know it, but I'm just going to buy the things I know and I like because at least that is valuable to me. And other young people say that is valuable to me as well. And I think actually that's what ultimately creates value as we come to appreciate it.

黄金 vs. 比特币：宏观展望

David Bonnie: 让我们来比较一下黄金和比特币。我昨天读到这个，高盛分析师预测黄金将达到4000美元，称其为比比特币更好的对冲工具。他预测到2026年中期达到4000美元。这是这位分析师的原话：“供应非常有限。绝大多数可用的黄金供应已经被开采出来。而比特币的供应按设计也是有限的。我认为这种有限的供应给那些担心失控通胀的投资者带来了一些信心。” 之后讨论了黄金背后的地缘政治力量。投资者在2022年后涌向黄金的部分原因是美元的武器化和对美国国债信任的丧失。在此之前，人们涌向国债和美元寻求安全，但信心的丧失使他们转向了黄金。无论如何，你能否评价一下我所说的以及高盛分析师的预测？

David Bonnie: Let's compare gold to Bitcoin. I read this the other day, not yet the other day. Yesterday, it came out yesterday. Um, as of the date of the recording, May 29th, Goldman Sachs analyst predicts 4,000 gold, calling it a better hedge than Bitcoin. 4,000 by mid 2026. This is his quote from an analyst here. Supply is very limited. The vast majority of available gold supply has already been mined. And Bitcoin supply by design is also limited. I think this limited supply gives some confidence to investors who are worried about runaway inflation. Um the geopolitical forces behind gold are are uh are then later discussed. Part of the reason why investors flocked to gold post um 2022 was uh the weaponization of the dollar and the loss of trust of US treasuries. Prior to that, we had uh people rushing to treasuries and the dollar for safety, but loss of confidence brought them to the yellow medal is one argument. Anyway, can you just evaluate what I said as well as what the um Goldman Sachs an analyst uh projection has?

Jeff Park: 我认为黄金之所以具有内在价值，是因为它在全球民众中被认为有价值的历史悠久。这又回到了你最初的问题，即谁来发现和决定价值。毫无疑问，黄金拥有最长的被证实的记录。我结婚时，收到的礼物是黄金。我有了孩子，我的家人送我黄金。所有这些结构都源于一个观念：这些是硬资产，可以让你选择退出法币 (Fiat Currency) 经济。特别是如果你认为这些东西可以运输，那么在人们试图寻求保护的最极端尾部事件中，考虑其避险属性就更有趣了。

Jeff Park: Yeah, I think gold is inherently valuable because it has a long track record of being perceived valuable by a global population. This goes back to your original question as to who finds and determines value. And um gold without a doubt has the longest proven track record. When I got married, I was gifted gold. When I had children, my family gifted me gold. And all of these constructs come from the notion that these are hard assets that allow you to opt out of having fiat economy. And especially if you think that these things can be um transportable then it's actually even more interesting to think about the kinds of flight risks in the most tail edge of events where people are trying to uh participate a protection for.

Jeff Park: 在这方面，黄金的心理地位是真实的。地缘政治的贡献也是真实的，因为自1971年布雷顿森林体系结束后，对于整整一代人来说，时间并不长到足以忘记黄金的角色。所以现在还有人记得，过去资本是如何由资产支持的，而不是完全依赖于一个国家的信誉。这一趋势很重要，因为如果你考虑回到一个像金本位那样的价格特殊机制的世界，那么黄金就会回归。实际上，许多政府机构和中央银行正在购买黄金，因为他们视黄金为对冲未来新世界秩序、并为其提供抵押品的工具。对我来说，这很有道理。

Jeff Park: So I think in that sense the psyche of gold is real. M the geopolitical um contribution is also real because after Breton Woods uh ended in 1971, it hasn't been that long for a whole generation to still not remember the role of gold. So there are people out there who still remember the essence of how you used to have capital that was backed by assets that wasn't totally dependent on just the trust creditworthiness of the country. And so that trend is important because if you think about revisiting a world where we return back to like a price specia mechanism like a gold standard then gold will come back and actually a lot of the government institutions are buying gold and the central banks are participating because they're looking at gold as the hedge for the day in which that will contribute to collateralizing a new world order. So to me this makes a lot of sense.

David Bonnie: 分析师将黄金与比特币比较，称其为比比特币更安全的对冲工具。这是他关于比特币的原话：“比特币波动性更大，对下跌更敏感，与科技股的正相关性更强。当风险情绪积极时，比特币和股票都表现良好。所以这部分可能导致了其风险更高的特性。” 你能评价一下他刚才说的话吗？

David Bonnie: He compared it to Bitcoin, calling it a safer hedge than Bitcoin. This is his quote regarding Bitcoin. Bitcoin is more volatile and sensitive to draw downs, more positively correlated with tech equities. Bitcoin and equities both do well when risk sentiment is positive. So that partly may contribute to the riskier aspect. Can you evaluate what he just said there?

Jeff Park: 是的。我认为，人们很容易将波动性视为一个纯粹的负面特征，但我认为，年轻人实际上拥抱波动性。部分原因我认为是一种代际趋势，他们意识到如果不经历波动性来实现某种程度的财富创造，机会成本太高。但现实是，波动性再次成为一个路径依赖的结果，投资者真正关心的只有最终价值。所以如果你真的相信比特币在长期内会有价值，人们就能承受这种波动性。

Jeff Park: Yeah. So, I think it's easy to dismiss volatility as a feature that is a net negative, but actually what I would argue is young people actually embrace volatility. Um, some of that I think is a generational trend where they realize that the opportunity cost is way too high to not experience volatility to achieve some level of wealth creation. But the reality is volatility again is a path dependent outcome where the only thing investors really care about is the terminal value. So if you really believe Bitcoin is going to be valuable over a long period of time, people can weather the volatility.

自我托管的挑战

Jeff Park: 我更担心的一点，即比特币相对于黄金的不足之处，是大多数人并不擅长成为自己资产的所有者。自我托管所有权 (Self-custodial ownership)，对吧？把这个责任外包给别人，说“你来管理我的资产托管，因为我害怕那些风险”，这完全是人之常情。而比特币完全颠覆了这种模式。因为要真正拥有比特币，你必须以自我托管的方式进行，你必须愿意接受如果你搞砸了就会失去一切的可能性。大多数人无法承受这种风险。黄金也有这方面的因素，但失去所有黄金的可能性，远不如人们可能忘记私钥那么严重。或者说私钥被盗，因为黄金仍然是一种物质实体，存在于宇宙中。所以当人们比较黄金和比特币时，我担心的不是波动性，也不是价格。我认为是自我托管方面，许多人仍然会感到困难，他们会因为知道自己有一个可以持有、闻到、尝到的实物而感到安慰，并知道它就在那里。而比特币在某种程度上感觉有点抽象，这就是为什么至今仍有一些人不相信它具有物质价值。

Jeff Park: The thing that I worry a little bit more as to where Bitcoin falls a little short versus something like gold is that most humans are not very good at being um owners of their own assets. Uh self-custodial ownership, right? And it's actually perfectly human to want to outsource that to somebody else and say, "You manage the custody of my assets because I'm afraid of those risks." And Bitcoin turns that model completely upside down. Right? Because to truly own Bitcoin, you must do it in a self-custodial way where you're willing to entertain the possibility that you'll lose it all if you mess up. And most humans cannot tolerate that risk. Gold has elements of this, but the ability to lose all your gold is not nearly as drastic in the ways that people might just forget their keys. Yeah. Or actually have their keys stolen because gold is still a material physicality and that it exists in the universe. And so when people um compare gold and Bitcoin, I actually don't worry about the volatility. I don't worry about like the price. It's the self-custodial aspect that I think many people will still struggle with where they're comforted by knowing they have a physical object that they can hold, smell, and taste and know that it is here. Uh, and and Bitcoin feels at some level a little bit abstract, which is why some people still till this day don't really believe it's materially valuable.

David Bonnie: 但很快我们就可以把比特币交给银行了。那样不是简单多了吗？它消除了担忧。

David Bonnie: But soon we can just leave our Bitcoin with the banks. Isn't that a lot easier? It removes the concern.

Jeff Park: 是的，我认为这就是我们正在进行的创新，即我们如何将比特币整合到一个商业模式中，既能消除那些损失和保险的尾部风险，又不会完全失去那些资产作为你主权资产的元素。因为一旦像比特币这样的资产被纳入一个你不再是所有者的托管模式，我们基本上又回到了我们现有的传统金融体系。这意味着交易所或银行可以将其重新出借和再抵押 (rehypothecate)，它就开始变得很像我们以为正在解决的问题。

Jeff Park: Yeah, I think this is the innovation that we are embarking upon which is how are we going to integrate Bitcoin to a business model where we can remove some of those tail risks of uh loss and insurance but also not totally lose the element of those being your sovereign assets because the moment these assets like Bitcoin become contributed into a custody model where you are no longer the owner, we're kind of revisiting the uh the traditional financial system as we have it and that means that the exchange or the bank can relend it and rehypothecate it and it begins to kind of look a lot like what we thought we were solving for.

Jeff Park: 所以我认为我们真正想弄清楚的是，我们能否建立一个更好的用户体验，让人们在拥有比特币时感到舒适和安全，你既能得到那种“白手套”级别的服务，但你仍然是你名下这些资产的所有者。我认为这是随着行业增长可以开启的伟大篇章。

Jeff Park: So I think what we're really trying to figure out is can we build a nicer user experience that allows people to feel comfort and safety in owning Bitcoin where you get that white glove experience but you are still the person that own these assets in your name and I think that is the great chapter that can be unlocked with the growth that we see in the industry.

ETF与金融化的未来

David Bonnie: 你看到任何可能的解决方案了吗？我们接近任何解决方案了吗？

David Bonnie: Are you seeing any possible solution? Are we close to any solution?

Jeff Park: 你知道，我认为ETF在其增长轨迹上非常受欢迎这一事实表明，有一种拥有价格敞口而不用担心托管风险的版本对投资者来说是有价值的。所以我认为在某种意义上它们可以共存。人们仍然想要金融化版本的比特币，因为这意味着它能很好地融入他们的投资组合管理系统。他们知道如何对其进行保证金交易，可以借贷。借贷市场允许你在没有对手方风险的情况下借出你的比特币ETF。而如果你借出你的比特币，现在就存在真实的对手方风险。

Jeff Park: You know, I think the fact that the ETFs have been very popular in uh its growth trajectory shows you that there is a version of owning price exposure without worrying about that custody risk that is valuable to investors. So I think in some sense they can coexist. People still want financialized version of Bitcoin because that means it plays nicely in their portfolio management systems. They know how to margin it. They can borrow against it. The borrow market lets you lend your Bitcoin ETF out without counterparty risks. Whereas if you lend out your Bitcoin now there's real counterparty risk.

Jeff Park: 金融体系的某些特性可以非常出色。所以我认为，需要一个能融入传统合规体系的“包装”总是有价值的，但这并不意味着它与投资者也想在冷钱包中持有一些比特币是相互排斥的。我认为每个人实际上都应该两者兼顾，因为这样你才能真正看到为什么这种体验有不同的挑战，但也有与之相关的特权。

Jeff Park: And so there's certain features of the financial system for which it can be very good. So I think there will always be value for needing a rapper that plays into the traditional compliance system, but it also doesn't mean it's mutually exclusive that investors should not also want to own some Bitcoin in cold custody as well. And I think everyone should actually do both because then you get to really see why the experience has different challenges but privileges that are associated with it as well.

转化时间的资产：人类资本的价值

David Bonnie: 回到你的推特帖子，你谈到“转化时间的资产”。这到底是什么意思？

David Bonnie: Going back to your Twitter post, you talk about assets that transform time. What does that even mean?

Jeff Park: 是的。很好的问题。我认为时间是可以被创造并转化为价值的能量组成部分之一。在很多方面，我认为比特币通过工作量证明 (Proof of Work: 一种共识机制，要求参与者进行一定的计算工作来验证交易和创建新区块) 体现了这个概念。为了能真正挖出一个比特币，你实际上必须消耗大量的能量和时间来获得区块补贴，而这反过来几乎就像一个电池，捕捉了努力并为你提供了回报。这就是为什么稀缺性存在，因为时间和能量是稀缺的。

Jeff Park: Yeah. Yeah. So, um, great question. I consider time to be one of the component of of of energy that can be created that could in turn turn to value. So in many ways I think Bitcoin represented a concept of this through proof of work where in able to actually mine a bitcoin you actually have to expend a lot of energy and time to get the block subsidy which in turn is a battery almost that has captured the effort uh and and has given you a reward for it. That's why the scarcity exists because time is scarce and energy is scarce.

Jeff Park: 我认为还有很多其他方式可以应用这一点，即人类资本 (human capital) 本身是稀缺的，而人类资本的利用可以是有价值的。我向人们指出的首要例子是职业赌博。当人们想到赌博时，我不是在谈论老虎机，我们在那里只是玩着负期望值的游戏。我谈论的是职业赌博，其中真正的技能可以带来正期望值的回报。所以扑克就是一个很好的例子。如果你是一个优秀的扑克玩家，你通常可以获得正的期望值回报。这是因为你的时间是有价值的，因为你投入了时间。而你为了获胜所必须付出的精力也同样不可小觑。但那个收入流看起来与股票市场完全无关，与利率政策也完全无关。这只是一种基于你人类资本赚取收入的能力。另一个好例子是体育博彩。体育博彩是众所周知的最复杂的市场之一，通常是因为信息优势确实有利于聪明的投注者。所以有职业体育博彩者，他们实际上能够比庄家做得更好，而庄家则依赖于最好的投注者来创造内部市场。所以如果你是一个职业体育博彩者，那是另一种通过消耗能量获得的收入流。我认为这种赚取收入的能力应该成为构想你投资组合中收入创造的一个组成部分。

Jeff Park: I think there's many other ways to apply this which is there are human capital um in itself that is scarce and actually the use of that human capital can be valuable. So the number one example I point to people is professional gambling. So when people think about gambling I'm not talking about slot machines right where like we're just you know playing games that have negative EVs. I'm talking about professional gambling where real skills can add positive EV outcomes. So poker is a great example. Mhm. If you're a great poker player, you can generally have a positive EV outcome. And that is because your time is valuable cuz you're spending to it. And the energy you have to expend to win is not insignificant either. But that income stream looks totally unrelated to the stock market. It looks totally unrelated to the interest rate policy. It is just an ability to earn income that is based on your human capital. Another good example is sports betting. Sports betting is widely known as one of the most complex markets generally because the information edge does favor uh smart berstors. So there are professional sports betterers who are actually able to be better than the bookies in which the bookies rely on the best bettors to create the inside market. So if you're a professional sports better, that's another outcome of an income stream that comes from expending energy. And that kind of uh ability to earn income I think should be a component of how to imagine uh income creation in your portfolio.

RWA（真实世界资产）的潜力

David Bonnie: 你早些时候谈到了艺术品或卡牌。如果它们上链了，交易起来会更容易吗？这意味着你可能是RWA（真实世界资产：Real World Assets，指将现实世界中的资产通过区块链技术代币化）的信徒。有很多人不相信它。他们会说：“我们希望我们的艺术品挂在墙上。我们希望能触摸到黄金。”给我分析一下。

David Bonnie: Earlier you talked about art or cards. Um, is it easier to trade those things if they're onchain? So, that means you might be a believer of RWA. Um, there are a lot of people out there that don't believe it. They're like, "We want our art on the wall. We want to, you know, be able to touch the gold." Um, break it down for me.

Jeff Park: 是的。我认为RWA是一个引人入胜的趋势，人们对它所期望捕捉的东西有不同的理解。对我来说，有两个新兴趋势。一个版本的RWA是对现有金融包装的代币化，这些包装在历史上是缺乏流动性的，但我们正在为这些金融资产带来流动性。想想私募股权 (Private Equity)，流动性极差；私人信贷 (Private Credit)，非常不流动。但如果你将其代币化，或许能让市场更具交易性，你可以想象，历史上缺乏流动性的资产的二级市场确实会变得更具流动性，而代币化允许了这一点。这是RWA故事的一个版本。

Jeff Park: Yeah. Yeah. I think RWA is a fascinating trend and one where people apply different versions of what they expect that to capture. Um, for me there's two emerging trends. One version of the RWA is tokenization of existing financial rappers that historically were illquid but were bringing liquidity to those financial assets. So think about private equity, immensely illquid, private credit, very liquid. But if you tokenize it and maybe make the market a little bit more tradable, you can imagine the secondary market for what was historically illquid does become more liquid and tokenization permits that. That's a version of an RWA story.

Jeff Park: 另一个RWA是关于那些从未被交易、从未被证券化、也从未为交易目的而创造的资产，我们能否将它们放入代币化的包装中，从而让它们找到前所未有的流动性。这是我更感兴趣的部分，也就是你提到的问题，像交易卡或运动鞋这样的东西，它们有巨大的交易量。人们一直在交易这些资产。像StockX这样的公司存在，并从物流中获得丰厚的利润。但物流实际上是一种商业成本，因为运输和储存运动鞋、支付保险，所有这些都是该商业模式的辅助成本，最终由消费者承担。

Jeff Park: The other RWA is actually what about assets that were never traded, never securitized, has actually never been created for trading purposes and can we put them in a tokenized wrapper so they find liquidity that's never found before. That is the part that I find more interesting which is to your question things like trading cards or sneakers these have great volume. People trade these assets all the time. Companies like StockX exist and make great margins on the logistics of it. But the logistics is actually a cost of business because shipping sneakers and storing them, paying insurance, all those things are auxiliary cost to that business model which ultimately the consumers pay for.

Jeff Park: 链上代币化可以为此解锁的是，你可以想象一个全新的业务，其中真实性证书本身由数字性质的东西代表，这将允许你在资产不必然移动的情况下交易所有权。我认为过去有很多公司尝试过这个，例如，手表市场非常巨大，非常有价值，而且有很多欺诈。所以真实性组件很重要，但你也想创建一个交易市场，在那里你不必每次都移动手表。如果最终买家不想认领它，因为他们实际上只对金融投机感兴趣，那么你可以看到RWA变成了一个更具流动性的市场，但你仍然可以想象实物资产是可认领的，这赋予了它价值。

Jeff Park: The thing that onchain tokenization can unlock for this is you could imagine a whole new business where the certificate of authenticity in itself being represented by something that is digital in nature would allow you to trade ownership without the asset necessarily moving. Uh, and so I think there's a lot of companies that have tried this in the past where the watch market, for example, is very huge, very valuable, and there's a lot of frauds. And so the authenticity component is important, but you also want to create like a trading market where you don't have to move around the watch every time. If the end buyer doesn't want to claim it because they're actually just interested in the financial speculation, then you can see RWA becomes more of a liquid market, but you can almost then still imagine the physical asset being claimable that it gives it value.

David Bonnie: 我来扮演一下魔鬼的代言人。几年前我们见过这种情况，当时人们开始制作劳力士等手表的代币化版本。大多数都归零了。一块劳力士仍然值2万5千美元。所以，我们不需要它。这是我的论点。就劳力士本身而言，不。就数字劳力士而言，我们不需要将现有的硬资产数字化，这是一个反驳的论点，你会如何回应？而且我想说的是，如果你看先例，数字化的资产归零了，而真实资产仍然保值。

David Bonnie: I'm just going to play devil's advocate here. We've seen this couple years ago when people started making tokenized watches of Rolexes and whatever. Most of those went to zero. A Rolex is still 25 grand. Yeah. So, we don't need it. That's my argument. In terms of the Rolex Rolexes themselves, no. in terms well that could be an argument as well no in terms of the digital Rolex we don't need to digitize existing hard assets that's a counterargument how would you respond to that and the point I was trying to make is that if you look at president the digitized asset went to zero right when whereas the real asset still retained value.

Jeff Park: 我认为你暗示的是，数字资产没有对实物资产的索取权，对吧？你说的是一个元宇宙资产。我谈论的是一个你实际上对实物资产有索取权的版本。而NFT（非同质化代币：一种独特的、不可互换的数字资产，代表对特定物品或内容的所有权）则方便了该实物资产的交易。这是一个我们在加密世界中也见过的模型。迄今为止，没有多少成功，但我确实认为在合适的拐点上，这可能是值得的。

Jeff Park: I think what you're intimating though is the digital asset had no claim to a physical asset right it was a metaverse asset is what you're saying it yeah it could have been or it could have been or could have just been an NFT right of that particular asset. Yeah. Yeah. A metaverse asset. Yeah. I'm talking about a version where you actually have a like a claim to the physical asset. Okay. And the NFT permits the ease of trading of that physical asset. So that is a model that I think we have also seen in crypto. Not many of them have succeeded to date, but one that I do think at the right inflection point could be could be worthwhile.

从衍生品交易员到比特币信徒

David Bonnie: 你曾在摩根士丹利担任衍生品交易员。我想知道，首先，你具体交易什么？我只是想把它与你现在的工作联系起来，以及你如何应用那些经验教训。

David Bonnie: You were a derivatives trader at Morgan Stanley. I just wonder well first of all what exactly did you trade and I'm just linking it back to your current job and how you apply those lessons.

Jeff Park: 我在摩根士丹利开始我的职业生涯，交易股票衍生品中的奇异期权。这意味着有一整类金融工具非常复杂，以至于布莱克-斯科尔斯模型 (Black-Scholes model: 一个为期权定价的数学模型) 都不足以给这些资产定价。因为布莱克-斯科尔斯模型实际上是一个相当确定性的模型，而对于一些奇异期权，你实际上需要一个随机模型，这个模型是路径依赖的，并且需要考虑许多不同的局部波动率输入。这些东西包括混合期权、障碍期权、敲入期权、敲出期权。你可能没听说过这些，但它们基本上是一些最复杂的金融工程，用于各种保险或投机目的。

Jeff Park: Yeah I uh I I started my career trading exotic options in equity derivatives at Morgan Stanley. What that means is there are a whole class of financial instruments that are so complex that black shores is not good enough to price those assets. Wow. Because black shores has actually a pretty deterministic model and what you actually need for some exotic options is a stochastic model that is actually pat dependent and taking a lot of different local volatility inputs. So these things are hybrid options, barrier options, knock-ins, knockouts. You may not have heard of any of these, but these are essentially some of the most complex financial engineering for a variety of insurance or speculation purposes.

Jeff Park: 对于像我这样的奇异期权交易员来说，最令人担忧的是，你总是担心模型无法完美捕捉最极端的事件，因为最极端的事件即使使用随机波动率模型也非常难以正确建模，其中某些输入之间的相关性无法被正确捕捉。例如，如果现货价格上涨，通常会对波动率产生影响。如果现货价格下跌，我们知道波动率往往会上升，但你需要在这些有时非常不稳定的模型中，将这种路径依赖中的相关性纳入考虑。

Jeff Park: And so the thing that is most worrisome for exotics traders like myself in these moments is you're always worried that the model can't capture perfectly the most extreme events because the most extreme events are very challenging to model correctly even with stoastic volatility where the correlation between some inputs cannot be captured correctly. So for example if spot goes up generally that has an implication for what volatility will do. the spot goes down. We know volatility tends to go up, but you need to be able to incorporate some correlation in that path dependency in these models that can be sometimes very unstable.

Jeff Park: 部分原因，我认为我很早就发现了比特币及其趣味，是因为我基本上在为那些没人认为会发生的事件定价。例如，尾部期权，关于奇异期权的一切都是在想象一个你原本认为不会被合理定价的最不利情景。所以，你必须假设那些三倍标准差的尾部事件可能比你想象的更可能发生。所以，当我发现比特币时，正是在那个大多数人会持怀疑态度并说“嘿，这看起来很奇怪，似乎很有趣，但可能一文不值，可能会归零”的时刻。我想我天生就倾向于想象，万一它不归零呢？如果它不归零，它实际上可能非常值钱。而这种概率计算对大多数人来说可能非常具有挑战性，即结果要么是零，要么是极有价值，但发生的百分比很低。

Jeff Park: And so part of the reason why I think I discovered Bitcoin and its interest really early on was because I was basically pricing events that no one thinks could happen. for example. So, so tail options, everything about exotic options is imagining the most adverse scenario of something that you otherwise wouldn't think would be probably priced. And so, you have to assume these tail events that are, you know, three standard deviations might be more probable than you think. And so, when I discovered Bitcoin, it was that moment when most people will be skeptical and say, "Hey, this looks funny. It seems like it's interesting, but it's probably worthless and it's probably going to go to zero." I think I was naturally wired to imagine, well, what if it doesn't go to zero? If it doesn't go to zero, it's actually probably worth a lot. And that probability calculation can be very challenging for most humans where the outcome is zero or extremely valuable, but the percentage of that happening is low.

David Bonnie: 你是什么时候开始接触比特币的？

David Bonnie: When did you get started with Bitcoin again?

Jeff Park: 我在2010年在交易大厅听说了它，并在三年后购买了我的第一批。

Jeff Park: So, I learned about it in 2010 on the trading floor and I purchased my first uh three years thereafter.

David Bonnie: 好的。2013年。如果你把2013年之前的比特币价格图表输入到你的一个模型中，在2013年时，比特币达到10万美元会是一个三倍标准差的事件吗？

David Bonnie: Okay. So, 2013. If you had taken the price chart of Bitcoin up until 2013 and plug that into one of your models, would Bitcoin reaching 100K back in 2013, would that have been a three standard deviation event?

Jeff Park: 哦天哪，那大概是15倍标准差的事件了。但它做到了。怎么做到的呢？大量的时间、精力和专注。不，我的意思是，现实是我们仍在这段旅程中，我们仍然不知道比特币价格的天花板最终在哪里。但我也告诉大家，当你押注比特币时，你不总是在押注比特币价格上涨。有时你是在押注法币价格下跌。这是另一种我认为反直觉的思维方式，但比特币大部分的价值创造确实是因为法币贬值了。而我认为，自从全球金融危机以来，这种情况发生的速度比人们想象的要快得多。

Jeff Park: Oh man, that would have been like a 15 standard event. Yeah. Yet it made it. How? Lots of time and energy and focus. No, I mean the reality is we're still on this journey and we don't know still what the price of Bitcoin's ceiling ultimately is. But I also tell folks when you bet on Bitcoin, you're not always betting on the price of Bitcoin going up. Sometimes you're betting on the price of fiat going down. And that's another mentality that I think is something counterintuitive to imagine, but most of Bitcoin's value creation really happened because fiat got debased. And that's what was, I think, happening at a faster pace than people imagined ever since the global financial crisis.

比特币与山寨币的未来

David Bonnie: 比特币我大概明白了。我可以用山寨币 (Altcoins) 替代比特币吗？那个模型还适用吗？

David Bonnie: With Bitcoin, I think most people understand. Can I replace Bitcoin with altcoins? Does that model still work?

Jeff Park: 我个人认为，我们现在生活在一个“要么比特币，要么完蛋”的世界。每个人都非常喜欢比特币，而山寨币在某种程度上正在努力寻找信念。但我认为，随着市场结构的清晰化以及这些东西在金融用途上的实用性（不仅仅是模仿性交易）的出现，可以想象山寨币可能是有用的。

Jeff Park: I think my personal opinion is that right now we're living in a Bitcoin or bust world. Everyone really likes Bitcoin and all coins are suffering at some level finding some conviction. But I think with clarity in market structure and utilities around these things existing for financial purposes that are more than just mimemetic trading could imagine that altcoins could be useful.

Jeff Park: 到目前为止的经验是，大多数人购买山寨币是因为他们非常喜欢加密货币的杠杆波动性。所以，如果比特币上涨5%，你认为山寨币可能会上涨15%。所以你会买山寨币。但在过去9个月，甚至更长时间里，你看到的是这种相关性已经完全瓦解。比特币可以上涨，而山寨币可以下跌。它实际上不再是对比特币的杠杆押注。

Jeff Park: I think for now the experience so far has been most people bought altcoins because they really like the levered volatility to crypto. So you know if Bitcoin is going up 5% you thought the altcoin might go up 15%. So you're going to buy the altcoin. And what you've seen the last 9 months really and maybe even longer now is that correlation has completely broken apart. Bitcoin can go up and all coins can go down. It's actually no longer a lever bet on Bitcoin.

Jeff Park: 我认为部分原因也是当ETF被批准后，你实际上有机会在去年12月交易那些比特币ETF的期权。所以实际上，如果你想要杠杆化的比特币敞口，你可以直接交易比特币的看涨期权。

Jeff Park: I think part of why that also is the case is when the ETF was approved, you actually got the chance to now trade options on those Bitcoin ETFs in December of last year. So actually, if you want levered Bitcoin exposure, you can just trade call options on Bitcoin instead.

David Bonnie: 这就是山寨币市场现在不如以前活跃的原因吗？我只是猜测，因为如果我想当个“赌徒”，我不用去买一些模因币 (memecoin)，我可以直接买比特币的期权。这给我同样的快感。

David Bonnie: Is that why the altcoin market is less active now than before? I'm just speculating here because if I wanted to be a DGEN instead of buying some memecoin, I could just buy options on Bitcoin. That g me the same kind of high.

Jeff Park: 完全正确。你得到了同样的体验，那种带有杠杆敞口的起伏刺激，而且更安全，因为基础风险消失了。你不必担心比特币和Helium的关系，或者比特币和Solana的关系。所以比特币期权非常有意义。

Jeff Park: Exactly. You get the same kind of experience, the thrill of the ups and downs with levered exposure and it's safer because the basis risk is gone. You don't have to worry about the Bitcoin and Helium relationship or the Bitcoin Salana relationship. And so Bitcoin options make a ton of sense.

Jeff Park: 第二件事是，这些持有比特币作为储备的公司出现了，对吧？像MicroStrategy这样的公司，它们的波动性也比比特币更大。所以我认为比特币期权和像MicroStrategy、Metaplanet这类公司的崛起，都从山寨币交易中分流了交易量，散户投资者选择以不同的方式进行你所描述的那种“堕落式”下注，这些公司、这些证券满足了这种兴趣，同时其基础风险与你真正想要的敞口——也就是比特币——更清晰地挂钩。

Jeff Park: And the second thing that happened is these Bitcoin treasury companies came along, right? The micro strategies of the world, those are also more volatile than Bitcoin. And so I consider both Bitcoin options and the rise of these treasury companies like the Micro Strategies, the Met Planets are all taking volume away from altcoin trading where retail investors are choosing to just bet differently on the degenerate kind of betting as you would describe it where these companies, these securities are saving that interest with a little bit cleaner basis risk to the actual exposure you want, which is Bitcoin.

David Bonnie: 有其他公司试图用Solana或以太坊 (Ethereum) 复制这种策略。你认为这行得通吗？

David Bonnie: you know, there are other um companies trying to copy strategy strategy with Salana or with Ethereum. Um, do you think it works?

Jeff Park: 我很期待看到它是否会成功。我乐观地认为它能找到一些产品市场契合点，我来告诉你为什么。我认为比特币之所以到目前为止能成功，是因为每个人都相信比特币是有价值的，对吧？所以你可以用它来借贷，人们愿意给予它一定的信誉度。MicroStrategy能够进入信贷市场，因为持有一定数量的比特币让那些贷款人认识到，有价值可以供他们收回。所以第一件事是，你必须相信这些资产抵押品是有价值的，而比特币在这方面完全成功。你可能会说，这在今天的加密世界里对任何其他资产，比如以太坊或Solana，都不适用。有些人会不同意，有些人会同意。这是一个开放的问题。我很期待看到人们如何进行风险评估。

Jeff Park: I I'm optimistic that it can find some product market fit and I'll tell you why. I think Bitcoin has worked so far because everyone believes Bitcoin is valuable, right? So, you can borrow against it and people are willing to give it some creditworthiness. So strategy is able to tap into the credit market because having certain amount of bitcoins gives those lenders an appreciation to think that there's value for them to recover. So the first thing is you must believe these asset collateral is valuable and bitcoin succeeds in this in every dimension. You might argue this doesn't succeed with any other asset today in crypto such as Ethereum or Salana. Some will disagree and some will otherwise agree. That's an open question. I'm excited to see how people underwrite.

Jeff Park: 但我告诉你为什么这些公司储备策略除了信贷抵押品之外还能奏效。其一，如果基础资产波动性大，它就奏效，因为杠杆化的波动性正在为这些公司储备创造价值，而以太坊和Solana的波动性都恰好比比特币更大。所以这对ETH和Solana来说是加分项。这很有利。

Jeff Park: But I'll tell you why these treasury strategies work in addition to the credit collateral. One is it works if the underlying asset is volatile because the leverage on volatility is what is creating value for these corporate treasuries and Ethereum and Salana happen to be both more volatile than Bitcoin. So that's plus one for ETH, plus one for Salana. That's advantageous.

Jeff Park: 另一件事是，比特币至少在今天是一个相当休眠的被动资产。它就存在那里，人们就让它待着。你并不能从中赚取收入，你不用去质押它。它就存在冷钱包里，你把它放在床垫下。它就像黄金。但以太坊不是，对吧？每个人都知道在以太坊中，你实际上必须参与网络安全来赚取由权益证明 (Proof of Stake: 一种共识机制，验证者锁定加密货币作为权益来创建新区块和验证交易) 提供的增量收益，其中再质押 (restaking) 已经成为一个主题，你还可以用ETH做其他事情，给你带来比仅仅放在冷钱包里更多的增量收益，而ETF目前还做不到这一点，但这些运营公司可能能够做到。所以我暗示的好处是，这种资产在运营公司结构中可能会更有生产力，这是比特币所不具备的，然后你再加上波动性，这些对于那些权益证明代币来说可能成为优势，而工作量证明代币则无法与之竞争。

Jeff Park: The other thing is Bitcoin is today at least a fairly dormant passive asset. Like it exists and people kind of let it be. You don't really earn income off. You don't stake it. You know, it lives in cold custody. You put it under your mattress. It looks like gold. But Ethereum is not, right? Everyone knows in Ethereum you actually kind of have to participate in the network security to earn the incremental yield that is provided by proof uh proof of stake where restaking has emerged as a theme and there's other things that you can do with ETH that gives you incremental yield than actually just keep it in cold custody and ETFs don't actually do that just yet but these operating companies might be able to do that. So the benefit here I'm alluding to is that the asset could be maybe even a little bit more productive in an operating company structure in a way that Bitcoin doesn't have to be and then you add the volatility on top and those things can be potentially edges for those proof ofstake tokens that proof of work tokens don't compete with.

给散户投资者的建议

David Bonnie: 从你在摩根士丹利的经历中学到了什么教训，并应用到今天的交易经验中？

David Bonnie: Any lessons you've learned from Morgan Stanley's experience that you're applying to your trading experiences today?

Jeff Park: 天啊，我在摩根士丹利学到了很多教训。我正在想有没有哪些与加密货币特别相关的。你知道，我被告知的第一条教训是“别搞砸了”。第二条规则是没有第二条规则，只有第一条。我认为在加密世界，很容易参与一些更具投机性、看起来很实验性的东西。我试图在接触这些新机会时更保守一些，因为即使是那些你认为相当蓝筹的协议品牌，也存在很多外生风险因素。所以我脑后总有个魔鬼在分享摩根士丹利的那些规则，让我在点击某些按钮前多等一会儿。这就是为什么我认为在某种程度上，我也是一个比特币最大化主义者。

Jeff Park: Um man, I learned a lot of lessons at Morgan Stanley. Uh I'm trying to think if any of them were super relevant to crypto. Um you know the number one lesson uh I I was told um was uh don't f up. And rule number two is there is no rule number two only rule number one. Uh and I think in crypto it's very easy to participate in some of the more speculative things that are out there and look pretty experimental. Uh, and I think I try to be a little bit more conservative in being able to access some of those new opportunities where we do have lots of exogenous risk factors there in even brands of protocols that you would think were fairly blue chip. And so I always have this kind of devil in the back of my head sharing those rules from Morgan Stanley that makes me wait just a little bit more before I click some buttons. Um, and that's why I think maybe at some point I'm a Bitcoin maxi too.

David Bonnie: 你对正在观看的、认为自己可以交易期权并有兴趣进入这个市场的散户投资者有什么信息？你会对一个感兴趣的初学者说什么？

David Bonnie: What's your message to retail investors watching right now who think they can trade options and are interested in getting into that market and that kind of game. What would you tell a beginner who's interested?

Jeff Park: 我会告诉每一位初学者，学习如何交易期权是你生命中这个阶段的一项关键技能。我这么说是因为期权交易作为一个心智模型，对于通过概率的视角来思考世界是非常有用的。我认为，越来越多地，不仅仅是经济学，文化也发生了变化，每个人都希望事情是黑白分明的。你要么是坚定的“是”，要么是坚定的“否”，要么是极右，要么是极左，没有细微差别的空间。但现实是世界充满了细微差别。所以期权交易能训练你的大脑，让你更留意可能出现的各种结果的分布。

Jeff Park: I would tell every beginner that it is a critical skill at this point in your life to learn how to trade options. Um and I say this because options trading is incredibly useful as a mental model to think about the world through a probabilistic lens. And I think more and more, not even from economics, but the culture has changed where everyone wants things to be black and white. You're either, you know, hard yes, hard no, hard right, hard left, and there's no room for nuance. But the reality is the world is full of nuances. And so options trading trains your brain to be a little bit more mindful about the distribution of outcomes that might be possible.

Jeff Park: 在此之上，再加上一个现实，那就是世界上大多数交易对于那些知道自己在做什么的人来说，是相当富含alpha (Alpha: 指投资回报中超过市场基准回报的部分) 的。所以你总是会处于一点劣势，除非你能在重要的事情上跟上步伐。期权交易给你带来了巨大的杠杆，而这恰恰是散户投资者能从中受益最多的。在我看来，期权交易是散户交易者能比机构做得更好的唯一一件事。因为机构交易期权时，他们需要规模。当他们有规模时，他们会影响市场。但如果你是一个散户参与者，只是在这里那里买几手，你不会影响价格。你实际上也没有向其他人展示你的持仓情况，让别人可以围绕你的头寸进行交易。所以我一直告诉大家，散户投资者很难胜过机构，这几乎是对你不利的。你不知道订单流，你不知道中央限价订单簿是什么样的。期权交易是唯一一件规模对你作为散户参与者有利的事情，所以每个人都应该花时间去学习。而且比特币是世界上最具尖峰厚尾 (leptokurtic) 特性的资产之一，所以如果你相信比特币，我认为对于有长远眼光来观察它的人来说，期权化的比特币是一个非常值得的尝试。

Jeff Park: So then on top of that, add to the reality that most of the trading in the world is fairly um alpha rich for those who know what they're doing. And so you're always going to be at a little bit of a disadvantage unless you're able to get up to speed on the things that matter. And options trading gives you a lot of leverage that only retail investors can actually benefit from the most. In my opinion, options trading represents the one thing that retail traders can do better than institutions because when institutions trade options, they need size. And when they are size, they move markets. But if you're a retail participant and you're just buying a few lots here and there, you're not moving the price. And you're actually not showing open interest to other people in ways people can then trade around your positions. M so I've been telling folks for a long time retail investors it's very hard to out compete institutions it's almost stacked against you don't know the order flow you don't know what the central limit book looks like you're just trading options is the one thing where size is in your advantage as a real participant so everyone should take the time to learn it and also bitcoin is one of the most leptoctoic assets in the world and so if you believe in bitcoin I think optionalized bitcoin is actually a really worthwhile endeavor for someone who has a long time span to observe it.

传承价值：给下一代的黄金与比特币

David Bonnie: 你说你结婚时收到了黄金。当你的孩子结婚时，你会给他们什么？

David Bonnie: Yeah, a lot of pressure. You said that when you got married, you got you were gifted gold. Oh, when your kids get married, what are you giving them?

Jeff Park: 哦，天哪。我必须尊重我的家人，把我的黄金传下去，但我绝对愿意把比特币也加入到这个对话中来。你说这个很有趣，因为我儿子，现在他五岁了，在我身边耳濡目染，也学到了一些我和我妻子碰巧聊到的话题。我们确实有时在餐桌上谈论比特币，他时不时会问我：“爸爸，比特币的价格是多少？”但他还没到能理解大数字的程度。所以他不知道十万或九万，对他来说就是100或90。

Jeff Park: Oh, man. I will have to honor my family and pass down my gold as well, but I would absolutely love to include Bitcoin in this conversation. It's funny you say that because my son actually um you know being around me now he's 5 years old has picked up some of the conversations that my wife and I happen to have and we do talk about Bitcoin sometimes over a dinner table and every now and then he'll ask daddy like what's the price of Bitcoin? But he hasn't gotten to the point where he understands like big numbers. So he doesn't know a 100,000 or 90,000. It's 100 or 90.

Jeff Park: 我儿子一直在和他的朋友们交换宝可梦卡牌，他基本上把自己收到的正版卡牌换成了一些你可以在亚马逊上买到的假卡。那些卡是中国制造的，但非常漂亮。它们像金子一样闪闪发光，你几乎会觉得那张卡看起来更有价值。所以我儿子把他所有的正版卡牌都换成了这些金卡。他非常自豪地给我看，“爸爸，看这些金卡。”我不想告诉他这些是假的。所以我不得不在这次谈话中借助比特币，我试图向他解释，蓝色的卡是原版，它们像比特币一样稀缺。它们是原始抵押品 (pristine collateral)。他知道什么是原始抵押品，因为我过去就是这样描述比特币的。所以现在他说：“哦，所以这是原始抵押品。我不会把它换掉的。”

Jeff Park: My son has been trading Pokemon cards with his friends and he has basically traded away some of the legitimate cards that he received for what are these fake cards that you can buy on Amazon and Amazon the cards are fake. It's made in China but they're very pretty. So they're like gold and it glitters and you can almost see that card looks like it's more valuable. So my son traded away all his legitimate original cards to get these gold cards. And he was so proud to show me, "Daddy, look at these gold cards." And I didn't want to tell him they're fake. And so I had to leverage Bitcoin in this conversation where I was trying to explain to him that the blue cards are the original and they're scarce like Bitcoin. It's pristine collateral. And he knows what pristine collateral means because it's how I've described Bitcoin in the past. Mh. So now he goes, "Oh, so this is pristine collateral. I'm not trading it away."

David Bonnie: 很好的教育。对观众来说也是很好的教育。非常感谢你，Jeff。这次非常有教育意义。

David Bonnie: Wow. All right. Good education. Good education for the audience as well. Thank you very much, Chef. That was very educational.

Jeff Park: 谢谢你们邀请我。非常有趣。

Jeff Park: Thanks for having me. Super fun.