Hello everyone, I am Anthony. Welcome to my channel. Today I want to talk to you about a common mistake many people make when making decisions, it's statistical thinking.

A few days ago, a netizen shared your observations and thoughts with me. He found that his peers there is a general convergence and self-avoidance tendencies.

Just based on the characteristics of the object, make decisions based on objective data, but lack of analysis and understanding of their own reasons.

For example, see if a certain profession is currently the most popular or has the highest income, just choose this major. For example, artificial intelligence and finance.

When choosing a love partner, we also make decisions based on the most mainstream data.

For example, a boy's parents told him, the girl you like, it's too different from your family background. Based on past cases, this combination is unlikely to be happy. So you should choose one we think a girl who is well matched with her.

Similarly, according to some data, too big of an age difference, the probability of happiness will also be lower. So you should find one those whose age difference is within 3 years, etc.

For example, the parties feel one must follow some so-called general trend, or it can be said that it is a trend, a bonus of the times, etc. For example, housing prices, stock market or a new industry, etc.

Little or no consideration is given to one's own subjective emotions, interests, cognition, etc.

We can combine the above situations statistical thinking.

This can be said it is a universal way of thinking, but it is more common in Chinese society.

Therefore, we will often mention this concept in the future. Then this video, let's have a preliminary discussion.

If you are interested in today's video or do you have any topic you want to discuss with me? You can contact my email to make an appointment.

So let's get back to our topic today.

We say typical statistical thinking can be abstracted as make decisions through regression analysis and optimization models.

That is, by adjusting the values ​​of each variable, make it as close to the ideal "optimal solution" as possible. This increases the probability of successful results.

Take our marriage as an example. In China, many parents draw on their own life experiences and observation of samples around us, summarized a set of rules about marital happiness and use this to guide and intervene in children's mate selection.

Function of marital happiness can be summarized as a weighted combination of multiple variables. These variables include age differences, family background differences, education gap, household registration gap, whether to buy a house, whether they are in the system, whether their parents have pensions, etc.

Each variable and the ultimate stability of marriage there is some correlation. And each variable has clear constraints. For example, the smaller the age gap, the more similar the family background and the closer the region, the better.

Because the statistical law shows that in real life these variables cannot reach their ideal values. Individuals can only try to adjust these variables, make it as close as possible.

Of course, in reality, few people use such a rigid model to make decisions. But the problem is not the level of accuracy. This way of thinking is problematic.

The problem here, it's not just because we can't be perfect. If only because the ideal is too perfect, impossible to do, then the solution to the problem is to settle for the next best thing, just choose the best solution within your capabilities.

However, the key to the problem is, in fact, there is no universal perfect standards and optimal solutions.

Because the subjective meaning that each person assigns to an indicator can be the exact opposite.

The subjective meaning given to objective indicators is itself often more important than objective indicators.

Although statistical laws reveal a certain level of truth, but this truth is true for individuals, often external.

We say that we need to analyze two people. Can you build an intimate and mature relationship? Those internal standards, for example, the degree of compatibility between the personalities and personality structures of both parties, often more realistic than external indicators.

Or even if we compare some external indicators, we must first examine and consider from an internal perspective.

This means there is no such thing as objective data that is independent of subjective spirit.

For example, a person thinks the higher the partner's income, the better. He may seen as the key to a successful marriage.

Another person may feel family warmth and intimacy more important than material conditions. He may place more emphasis on the emotional quality of his partner and spiritual support.

Both seemingly facing the same external standard of income, but the value orientation behind it is completely different.

The significance they attach to this objective standard there is a world of difference. The result of marriage there are also huge differences.

We say that positivism and natural science, it needs to be built on a series of observable above the operational standards.

However, when it comes to human spiritual phenomena, continue this line of thought, it often leads to a superficial.

Many people always look at human nature from the perspective of natural science, that is, the separation of subjective and objective thinking.

In positivism, objective laws do not depend on the subjective experience of the observer, independent existence. It can be verified by experiments.

However, in terms of human psychological reality, the objective standard itself there is no inherent meaning.

It is through each person's inner experience, emotional needs and value assignment, this subjective meaning.

A phenomenon more important than so-called objective criteria, it's actually very common.

For example, social support theory tells us, good social support, it is a valuable psychological resource.

When individuals are in trouble and under pressure, he will feel isolated and helpless, then I was engulfed by anxiety and fear.

Social support, it can make individuals have more energy to escape the crisis.

Social support can be divided into there are two types of social support: actual social support and perceived social support.

Practical social support refers to the actual support an individual receives. For example, help from friends or family members, such as monetary assistance, practical care, help solve practical problems, etc.

These supports, it is a specific, quantifiable, and visible behavior.

Understanding social support refers to individuals’ subjective experience and perception of support. This is obviously not easy to be counted and quantified.

However, researchers found, understanding social support stronger impact on mental health.

That is to say, how individuals perceive the care and support from the outside world, often more than how much support they actually get, more important.

Even if a person does not receive direct help, but if he feels that he is cared for and valued, then his mental state is often more positive, more resilient.

And if he thinks I don’t get support and understanding from others, even if you actually get some help, he may also feel isolated and helpless.

For example, a child encounters a difficulty. His parents helped him solve this problem. For example, providing resources or making decisions on his behalf.

Another child, with the encouragement and support of parents, solve it yourself.

As a result, the first child, although more practical social support, but he still felt powerless and insecure.

The second child, I feel that I am always in an emotional state, accepted and supported.

Maybe his parents, unable to provide him with much practical support, but his sense of control and self-efficacy will be better.

This can explain why do some children, I have received so much help and support from my parents, but their self-confidence and psychological resilience are relatively poor.

Some people would guess, is it because the conditions are too favorable? They won't work hard? The answer is of course not.

Actually, most of the support these children receive is external. For the spiritual support that really matters, they happen to be quite needy and poor.

Therefore, we say, the so-called objectivity presented by many external indicators, often removes the deeper meaning that individuals give to a story and emotional resonance.

These external data, just cold numbers and standards. The truth behind it varies from person to person.

For example, the same is true for choosing a school or a career. One person's income is lower than another person's income, but his work, it is a choice made after thorough exploration.

So his job is easier for him, bring more satisfaction and value. This means his work status is sustainable and developmental.

The other person has a higher income. However, he was unexamined, I chose this job blindly, or maybe it's driven by some kind of survival pressure.

He often felt disgusted and miserable. I only continue to do this job out of fear. His state is unsustainable.

Statistical thinking doesn’t focus on what’s underneath the numbers, the unique intrinsic meaning given by the individual, even think that these factors are not scientific enough.

The depth and uniqueness of individual experience, considered as a factor that needs to be eliminated.

Turn out, statistical thinking, only focus on the most external standards and quantifiable indicators.

For example, you may often use your mobile phone, brush to such articles or short videos. For example, Top 200 Chinese University Graduates with Average Monthly Salaries in 2024.

These articles usually in the title, will add some eye-catching content. For example, a certain university ranked among the top 4 this year. A certain university failed to make the top 10, etc.

This article usually lists several items. For example, the types of colleges, is it a polytechnic or comprehensive university? For example, whether it is a 985 university, etc.

Tsinghua University ranks first. The average monthly salary for the class of 2023 is 13,000 yuan. Henan University of Science and Technology ranked 200th. Monthly salary is 4,700 yuan.

There are also many lists that count high-paying majors. For example, this list, listed the undergraduate graduates six months after graduation, Top 10 majors by monthly salary. Most of them are computer-related majors.

It should be noted that, are the above data accurate and rigorous enough? Not important.

Here we are first concerned with such a question. These are the statistics. What message does it convey to readers? Or, when a person reads this data, what on earth is he reading?

When we read the text, we actually also accepting how texts construct our self-perception.

Assuming you are a graduate, see the monthly salary ranking of universities. You might come and have a look, where does your university rank in this list? And your income, is it lower than the average of your university?

If below average, you may feel inferior. I feel like I'm lagging behind my peers.

Since these data, it seems so direct and certain, this inferiority complex will become more unquestionable.

Then you might think of, above oneself, there are many college graduates with better grades, have higher income. I am just one of millions of people, a trivial sample.

Then you feel even smaller.

If you were still a high school student, when you see this data, you will feel that your choices are more limited. That is at all costs, get into a higher ranked school, or higher-income professions.

Besides, there is no other meaning or choice.

People who are stuck in statistical thinking often emphasize, these gaps are the naked reality. It is an objective law.

However, this rule, it is just a way of interpreting reality.

You might say, some professions do have higher average incomes. Isn't this obvious?

However, the important question is, how do these averages relate to you?

We assume, a profession or industry, the occupational performance of all individuals is normally distributed.

Most individuals' abilities, achievements and performance, all are concentrated within one standard deviation around the mean.

A few individuals will be far away from the mean, the tails at both ends.

These outliers that deviate from the mean, often lies outside the mean plus or minus three standard deviations.

The probability of these data is extremely low. Maybe very prominent, maybe a big failure.

They are certainly not statistically likely.

However, if you can clearly realize your real interests, you can take the road less traveled. Try, make yourself an outlier from the average.

These are two completely different strategies. The strategy adopted by many people is, I want to join a group with a higher average, strive to become most of this group, just keep up the pace.

In this case, so, I just need to consider and compare external indicators. For example, the average income of each group is higher. I don't need to think about what I like and what suits me.

Another strategy, consider more, how to maximize your potential, discover your own uniqueness. Then, then find your own market segment and group.

Obviously the first strategy, more likely to lead to individual convergence and repetitiveness.

The second strategy, will tend to encourage you to be the outlier, that is, a more unique irregular existence.

The first strategy seems rational, but it is based on an unverified assumption. That is, I assume that I am a person without any inclination or potential. No special features, ordinary people like blank slates.

Only such people, no internal factors need to be considered. But do such people really exist?

This assumption of ordinary people is actually not natural. It is largely self-fulfilling.

Self-actualized. That is to say, if you don't dig into yourself, be aware of yourself, then your life, it will indeed appear to have no particularity or uniqueness.

And if you start digging into yourself, learn to embrace your emotions, then you will surely find the part that cannot be restored to data.

Although our channel often says, many people lack reflection, living a monotonous life. However, when we try to understand a person's inner world, understand his life history and emotional experience, after understanding a certain depth, we will all be able to discover the unruly side of human beings.

At first, you might use some external tags, take control of yourself. For example, I am a post-80s, I am a college graduate. There are 500,000 people like me in this city.

However, when I delve into the details and logic of my life history, this is what anthropology calls thick description.

I will find, my many emotional experiences, it cannot be easily categorized and counted. It is also impossible to quantify, predict and restore.

These emotions are related to the individual's growth trajectory, the key moments in life are closely related.

When you start reflecting on these emotions, you will gradually discover your own intrinsic motivations differ from others.

You will find, behind these emotions, what is hidden is between you and others, the deep connection you have with yourself.

It is these unique emotional experiences, who you are today.

Let's discuss this topic later. That's it for today's video.

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