Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. We are live. It is Wednesday, December 10th. FOMC day. FOMC day. Today is the day where we figure out if the Federal Reserve in the United States of America is going to be cutting rates or not.

We will be seeing at around 2:00 p.m. Eastern. I will be live at 2:20. So 200 p.m. Eastern, we will find out if the Fed is going to cut rates. The FOMC meeting will be starting at 2:30. Again, all Eastern.

And currently right now, 89.6% chance. 89.6% chance. We're likely going to get the rate cut. I mean, there is a 10.4% chance that Powell doesn't give it to us.

But I think we're going to get it. And now the question is just is the market going to react positively or negatively. And I don't know, dude. I have a feeling that we're going to get a little bit of a rip. But then again, I also have a feeling that's like market's going to see the news. Pal's going to be hawkish. Market's just not going to be happy about it.

Tom Lee came out this morning and he said that the a hawkish cut is already priced in. So end of year rally to around 7,300 is set in place regardless of a hawkish sentiment around the cut today, which I think he's I think he's right about that.

But then again, we're going to have to really see how the market interprets it today and we'll know in a few hours what ends up happening. But there is about a 90% chance that we're going to get that rate cut here today.

So we got a lot to talk about. We got some Nvidia headlines. We got a big pounder contract that came out last night. That's important to discuss.

Let's start off with Paler. So yesterday night, Paler actually pumped to $193 and it was pretty incredible. It didn't sustain that pump and and maybe it, you know, breaks out again today. Maybe it continues to stay around this range, but he did have some active buyers coming into Palunteer. The reason for that was because they got a pretty big deal.

$448 million strategic investment in the ship building operating system aka ship OS to accelerate the adoption of AI and autonomy technologies across the industrial base.

This is something we've been talking about for a very long time, especially Gokarp. Shout out to him. He's been on the show multiple times over the past year as we did like our Palunteer Sunday morning sessions and he's been saying the Navy is going to come through with a big big check. And yesterday we got $450 million for two years.

Not five years, not 10 years, two years. $450 million for pounder. Very very exciting. Now what is the point of this deal?

At its core, pounder is becoming the deacto operating system for the west and particularly for the United States government. Which means every single sector of the government is finding new use cases to implement pounder software. In terms of this use case, it is for.

As per the secretary of the navy, ship OS is not just new software. It is a new way of doing business that puts balancers cutting edge tools in the hands of decision makers at every level, giving them complete, accurate and real-time feedback across the supply chain.

This is how we turn America's technological edge into maritime industrial dominance. Now we build a true golden age at sea. Ship OS will leverage Pure software to bring modern best practices to see the complex data heavy environment of Navy ship building.

For those that remember the Hyundai Heavy Industries contract, 45 million for five years, HHI, this was back in 2022. They got an extension from a 2020 partnership that they signed with them early on.

And it all had to do with ship building and using Foundry essentially as an operating system for the complex navigation of what it means to actually build a ship take down a ship, ship a ship to a different country.

There's a lot of different nuance to what it means to engage in ship building and it's a massive massive industry especially for the Navy and now Pounder officially got this contract. So does this mean the stock is going to pump up back to 195 or back to 200? I mean we're going to see.

Last night it made an attempt for that. I I think the the more important relevant thing about this is that again the bears on Palenteer particularly the Michael Burries of the world are annoyed at the valuation and they're annoyed at I guess the CEO and how Karp acts or whatever.

But they cannot deny the growth right now. they can get annoyed that the valuation is too aggressive for the growth that they're getting. But then you have to look at the quality of growth, right? The second derivative of growth is what types of contracts are they getting?

Because the the sort of important analysis about this and it was the important analysis back when the stock was $20 and they were getting similar deals like this is that this is going to be sticky. This is going to be reoccurring. This is probably going to be upgraded to a much larger contract over the next two years if shows they can do a good job, which has constantly shown that if you give them the chance, they can prove that they can generate value.

And this is going to be something that other countries that also need ship building in their governments are going to be looking at and saying, "Hey, if Palantry can do it for the United States government, maybe they can do it for Ireland or Japan or all these other different nations that they're already working in in the context of ship building."

So, I just think that the reason the street's going to continue giving this a premium or at least holding the premium where it is is because the type of quality of revenue along with the rate of growth that I mean when you're getting a $450 million contract for two years, it's not going to be the easiest to start growing at, you know, or start deacelerating back to 20% when you're growing at 60%.

That is why Paler maintains its momentum and that's why it's very exciting to see what we've got going on here. So, very big deal for Palanteer. This news broke yesterday after hours. didn't make too much news last night, but I think it was a bit of a delayed reaction.

We'll see. I mean, maybe the market this thing got to 193 now. Maybe that was just some shenanigans with people buying it up and down, but maybe this thing does have a little bit of breakout as we open today. And then if it doesn't, then if it continues to stay at these levels, I'm fine with that as well.

The fact that, you know, we fell to 140 and we're back at 180 is not the worst thing for Palanteer. So, very exciting stuff. Up about 1.68% of the pre-markets and that is the update on Palanteer.

S&P 500 basically flat. You got Bitmine that's up a little bit. Crypto and or Ethereum and Bitcoin massive massive day yesterday.

Ethereum right there still holding 3,300 and BTC is holding 92,000. It did get to 94,000 yesterday. Those candles haven't really been faded.

I mean both of these were at 3100 and 90,000 yesterday. They got two $3,000 candles and they didn't necessarily leave even if they've, you know, gone down a little bit from their peak.

And so that's nice to see for crypto where the question is is it pricing in the rate cut or is it kind of front running the rate cut? We'll talk more about the rate cut, but it is nice to see crypto start to participate a little bit after being stuck over the past couple weeks.

GE Veronova increased their buyback from 6 billion to 10 billion, which was massive, massive news. This is 169 billion companies, up 10% in the pre-market, and they increased their dividend.

So, you're getting a lot of momentum right here for some of these other AI names, especially in the energy space that are just doing really shareholder friendly things like increasing the dividend and buying back your stock. And that's why GEV is up 10% right here.

Let's talk about Nvidia, but real quick, the 10ear. So yes, this is also something that's not necessarily the best thing to see. 10 years at the highest level in about 5 months, 4.2.

I think the credit market is basically saying we don't want a rate cut, which is counterintuitive to a lot of things that we've been hearing over the past couple weeks. But maybe the credit market right here is saying, "Hey, we think there's an issue in Japan that potentially could affect the United States."

And number two, you know, inflation still might be an issue. Therefore, we can't easily say that a rate cut is going to be the best thing in the world. And this, what you're looking at right here, this 4.2% on the tenure, given that we were below 4% 4 weeks ago, this is why Powell will be hawkish.

Yes. Meetings at 2:30. Meetings at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. This is likely why Pal will be hawkish because at the end of the day, if he's super doubbish and he's like, "Everything's great. We're cutting rates. Things are okay. Inflation is not a concern." No, the credit market's going to let him know. maybe you can't be that doubbish.

Now, obviously, the stock market would love him to be that doubbish. Trump would love him to be that doubbish, unfortunately. He's not going to be in that route because inflation still is a concern perceptually in the data.

Inflation is not that big of a concern yet. I mean, like given the data we've seen, I know we don't have October PPI, so maybe, you know, maybe it is a big deal, but we're not going to get that data anytime soon.

From what we're seeing, inflation is not ramping up that aggressively. So, the question is just going to be how the credit market interprets this rate cut. they've probably interpreted that we're getting 25 pips.

And then does the rising of the 10-year yield, aka people selling off bonds, does that actually affect the stock market in a negative way? Because one could argue that people are going to be selling off bonds and that money is going to be coming right into the market because they'd rather buy Nvidia versus hold on to a 10-year.

It's not good for the US refinancing of debt because we need those yields to go down, but it could be good for the stock market. So, we are going to see, but that is one thing that we definitely do have to care about.

2 PM is the decision. 2 PM or 2 PM is the decision. 2:30 is the conference call. So, I'll be live at 2:20. I'll be live 10 minutes before, but 2 PM Eastern is the decision.

And we're going to get a summary of economic projections as well. So, we're going to get a dot plot, which is going to show how the Fed is thinking of rate cuts going into 2026. By the way, JPAL has four meetings left after this one.

So, if if those meetings are not going to give us a rate cut, which so far the Fed futures are not really pricing in a rate cut until after May of 2026, then this is going to be his last rate cut.

And this might be the last time we see JPL actually give us a cut. And I'm sure you're going to have a lot of people betting on what he's going to say in this meeting, but this might be his last actual meeting where he ends up easing monetary policy.

Nvidia. So, news this morning. China's reportedly called emergency meetings with Alibaba, Bite Dance, and Tencent to size demand for Nvidia's H200 AI chips.

I think this could be the headline that really really makes Nvidia make a move today. Now, I'm not I I I I there's no way to guarantee that could happen, but the the only reason Nvidia fell yesterday was because there was all these bearish headlines that China came out and said, "We don't want your chips."

And now, obviously, China says one thing, they do the other. Now, they're in meetings with a lot of their tech companies, not only about Nvidia chips. The article goes on to report about how they're trying to size up.

Hey, can we give you enough Huawei chips? Maybe we buy 5% of Nvidia chips, you can do the rest with the Huawei chips. I'm sure the Alibaba and the Tens people are going to be like, can we just get 100% of the Nvidia chips?

Can we just like can we just get the chips? Like, do we really have to keep playing this game? Like, we know the Nvidia chips are better. And maybe there's a world in which the Chinese tech executives can convince the CCP to allow them to buy these Nvidia chips.

And if so, that's just more revenue for Jensen that has not been accounted for, which would be very, very bullish and I think probably help get the stock back into that 185 range.

I mean, the China stuff really is a gamecher simply for the idea that none of it is priced in and there's already so much that is priced in from a domestic demand perspective that is already trading at 24 or 25 times earnings, which is cheap in and of itself.

If you get China in the mix and potentially we get down to like 23 times earnings, I think it becomes more obvious buy.

There's also a new Chinese model called Kimmy and Kimmy is one is number 21 on the app store. You guys can download it if you're interesting interested in it. It is a Chinese model.

And the fun thing about this, yes, I know my phone has no battery. It never has battery. I said last night, is Taiwan a country? And look what happens. Sorry, I cannot provide this information. Please feel free to ask another question.

And then I typed in Pooh Bear and everyone knows or some people might know about Pooh Bear. Okay, this time it's answering it.

Yesterday Z. So I said, "Does Z look like Pooh Bear?" You're you're not allowed to talk about Pooh Bear in China because um yeah, look, I'm sorry. I cannot answer that question.

It's like illegal to compare Xi who looks like Pooh Bear to Pooh Bear because like the Chinese government has outlawed it.

So again, these uh these Chinese models like what like like when when you play around with it and you just see the automatic censorship on any of these questions immediately I think this is why the American models have to win and the American tech stack has to win because this stuff cannot be the mainstream models that exist.

Now, it's not like the American models are perfect. Obviously, there's issues with American models as well. But the sort of just like explicit censorship of certain topics like Taiwan because the CCP doesn't want Chinese companies enforcing the ability for users to gain access to that information because they see it as propaganda immediately lets you know why the American models have to win.

So, yeah, your boy is never going to China, dude. Your boy's never going to China. Like, look, I I don't I don't I I have a lot of respect for China, and I know a lot of people that have went to China. I'm sure a lot of you in the chat have traveled to China.

I am just paranoid about China because I've said a lot of [ __ ] on this show that is not like friendly about the CCP. Like like if if you really go through the catalog of like the thousand shows I've done over the past couple years, I have said some [ __ ] about the CCP.

And so I am genuinely afraid that if I step in that country, they have a record of me and immediately I'm not on American soil anymore. I mean at that point it's Chinese laws.

So, like I would love to visit China. There's a bunch of things in China I would love to see. But I like I'm actually paranoid based on me just being a public figure and saying stuff about them that if I ever stepped foot it would it would be ugly.

So, I don't think your boy's ever visiting China. But these models are not necessarily the most conducive to free speech. So, we're really going to have to see how they end up getting trained. The point is they want more Nvidia H200 chips, which is going to be hopefully overall bullish for Nvidia.

Okay. Meta. We got a big deal for Meta. Meta plans price hike for its virtual reality devices. This is kind of bullish because you're tying it with the other piece of news that we had. Meta. Wow. Meta's down on this. Huh.

I thought Meta would be up right here. You're tying this with the Metaverse news that came last last week. Which was that they were scaling back 30% of the workforce in the Metverse. That hasn't been confirmed by Meta, by the way. That was a Bloomberg rumor, so we don't officially know if it's confirmed, but that is something that came out.

And now you have price hacks on their virtual reality products as per Business Insider. One could argue this could decrease demand for the price cycle of its VR devices going into the holiday season. So that could be why it's kind of bearish.

The other argument could be there's not that much demand, so you might as well increase the prices and try to get as much you can from the average order value on consumers. Meta right here, that's down about 1%.

still up nicely from that 585 level that it was at two weeks ago at 650, but it was also at 680 a couple of weeks ago as well. On top of that, you've got more EU lawsuits.

So, I again there's not a bare case on Meta from the actual business outside of the where is the capex going to go. You have that avocado model that's rumored to be launching in Q1 of 2026.

I think the overarching bare case on the company is just or I guess the narrative is does the street believe that the ROI from AI is going to happen and if they don't believe that's going to happen you know that's where you get a bit more scared about where the stock can go.

but these sort of idiosyncratic things about the metaverse and VR and you know scaling back some of their spend like I don't think that's going to make the biggest difference in the stock the biggest difference is going to be where does the company go from here in regards to AI spend and we're going to see over the coming days how that ends up playing out.

Um, you got a Bloomberg headline right here. Mark Zuckerberg month months into building one of the priciest teams in technology history is getting personally involved in day-to-day work and pivoting Meta's focus to an AI model it can make money off of.

Yeah, that's basically the headline we had yesterday for Avocado. Um, and that's going to be Microsoft right there. Microsoft down 2%. I don't know if there's a headline there. We'll see in a second, but Microsoft down about 1.75. That's essentially what we saw yesterday.

Also, you've got some other quotes from this Bloomberg article right here. Uh, Meta is refining their new AI model using Alibaba's Quen. Meta is developing a model codenamed Avocado we talked about yesterday.

Meta's Alexander Wang at times is frustrated by Zuckerberg's micromanagement. Huh. I mean, I could understand being frustrated by Zuck's micromanagement if he paid you $15 billion to be the chief AI scientist at the company.

Nonetheless, if Alexander Wang is not really producing results, I can understand why Zuckerberg also wants to micromanage. But those are the quotes from this Bloomberg article. Maybe that's why the stock is down a little bit right here in the pre-markets.

Alexander Wang was the founder of Scale AI that Zucks paid 50 billion to buy 50% of their company, which I really don't know if that was the best use of shareholder capital. That was that was I don't know. I guess we'll find out if that was the case, but maybe a little bit of beef that's that's going on there.

Um, okay. So, that's what we have access to on Meta. Doug says, "Mom, the bear case on Meta is that they lose access to teenagers during the most formative addictive years of social media." Yeah, I mean, the idea that Instagram and Facebook lose their popularity definitely could be a bare case for I just I personally haven't seen that happen.

I mean, every year we think Facebook and Instagram are dying out. They continue to show these user numbers grow higher. So, yeah, that is an argument.

And I mean, I think that's that's always been Sam Alman's critique of Meta is that chat makes you feel good after you use it because it's like actually encouraging. And you know, Facebook makes you feel like crap, Instagram makes you feel like crap, which is right.

Like just objectively, Instagram makes you feel like crap. No, no matter how much self-confidence or self-esteem you have, when you're scrolling through Instagram and you're seeing all these other people living their life, doing things in their life that they're already creating like a perception around, and then you see these celebrities that pop up in your feed, you already feel bad about yourself because you're like, "Oh, I'm not doing as much as these people. I'm not living the life that these people are living."

But chat GBT, when you're asking these personal questions and trying to grow and get better, learn a new skill, like intrinsically there's a different feeling right there that it's substantially better.

there's not this advertising machine that's trying to just sell you more more dopamine and like you feel like you're becoming a better human being like that that is objectively true. The problem is Zux has been trying to interpolate that feeling inside of Meta AI and and that's just hasn't happened.

because I don't know about you guys but I don't use Meta AI to learn about a scale. I have been really loving GPT by the way. I subscribed two weeks ago and the 20 bucks a month is well worth it.

I mean, like, it really is. Like, it is becoming my go-to model again, and it's just good. It's really good. Someone says GPT glazes too much. GPT definitely glazes too much, but it glazes in a intellectual way.

Like, if you're full of [ __ ] it's going to tell you you're full of [ __ ] It's going to really try to say it in a in a way that doesn't hurt your feelings, but eventually they will call you out on your [ __ ] But if you're trying to just like learn something new or get better at something, it really is very encouraging.

And I just have a way better time using that than than using Instagram.

SoFi SoFi headline introducing the SoFi smart card. The best all-in-one account. SoFi right there, of course, dropping in the pre-market after that announcement.

So, what do we have on SoFi? Looks like they're introducing some cash back on this new card. Is this a credit card? I did buy more SoFi yesterday below 27.

I mean, I don't know, dude. I think this thing should be closer to 35. So, I've been buying SoFi. I think it should be okay. the new SoFi smart card. Uh, earn rewards with 5% cash back at grocery stores.

Okay. Uh, earn high interest up to 4.3% API on savings. Grow your credit score with onetime payments. Exclusively available with SoFi Plus. Get $1,000 in annual value with qualifying activities for only $10 a month.

Okay, it's okay. It's not the 3% Robinet credit card. And again, I bought soof so yesterday. So, like the only reason I'm comparing it is because again to pay 10 bucks a month to get access to this and it's not exactly the perks that a hood credit card can give you.

Again, it's just it's going to have to compete with Robin Hood, which is five bucks a month and you get, you know, 3% cash back on everything. I'm sure there will be some people that really adopt this type of card. The question is, you know, how much is it going to contribute to the bottom line for SoFi?

Regardless of that, um, I'm buying more SoFi, dude. I really do think you're probably going to get a move closer to 35. Maybe not by the end of the year. We'll see if we get that really big bull run.

I think Hood, look, I don't say this often, but I think SoFi is a better buy than Hood right here. And the only reason for that is because Hood is now very close to its all-time highs. I mean, yesterday was pushing 140.

So, do I think so Hood can get back to 150 by end of year? Yes, if we have like a monster bull run. But if that happens, Sofa should probably make a move closer to 35.

And if it doesn't, then it is what it is. But I think it's a safer buy right here than Hood simply because Hood has made a big move from 100 to 135.

So I do think this one would not be crazy in the short term to to get this members earn unlimited 5% cash back rewards at grocery stores and up to 4.3% APY on saving balances.

Yeah, that is the new SoFi card, which is what they announced here. It's probably not on their website right now, but it probably came through for the email for a bunch of people as well. $10 a month is annoying though, dude.

I've always been skeptical about Soapai's Plus program. 10 bucks a month to get access to some of this stuff. I mean, it's cheap compared to other cards, but I don't know if it's going to lead to mass massive use growth.

Pound right there up 1.3% in the pre-markets. UNH is flat. BMR is flat. S&P is flat. Broadcom is earnings tomorrow, which is going to be really important as well.

Nebius that's down about 0.24 and then IN down.56. I mean pretty much everything's actually down in the pre-markets. You're not getting a massive move.

Iroot once again is up 18%. The stock over the past couple days has been up like 10 20% every single day. Dualingo back above up 200. That's green a little bit.

Microsoft I don't have a headline for why they're down 2%. But it looks like there's something for why they're down. Everything else is red. Oh, Pab, shout out to Stock Talk. This was another one of his picks.

Photonix, by the way, we'll be live again. He has a new stock we'll be talking about at 12:30 on Twitter spaces. Last week, Twitter spaces bugged out and it didn't even work.

So, hopefully there's no issue today, but 12:30 I'll be live with him again and we'll be discussing a new stock. Uh, but Photronics, I think we did a a spaces on this a couple weeks ago, at least we mentioned it.

Um, good earnings. They beat on revenue, beat on EPS by about 10 to 15%. And that's why that stock is up about 20%.

Okay, Trump. So, Trump had a bunch of different things to say yesterday on the state of affordability and the economy. Here's a couple of those clips and we'll discuss some of the stuff that he mentioned yesterday.

>> So, they look at the camera and they say, "This election is all about affordability. We're dealing with bad people." And the word affordability is the exact same thing. And I can't say affordability hoax because I agree the prices were too high. So I can't go to hooks because they'll misconstrue that. But they use the word affordability and that's their only word. They say affordability and everyone says, "Oh, that must mean Trump has high prices." No, our prices are coming down tremendously from the highest prices in the history of our country.

Okay. So, that was part of what Trump said yesterday around affordability. He talked a lot about how Pennsylvania in particular has been starting to do very well. Um, and that created some more momentum in the the state of Pennsylvania, which is why he's been getting some more excitement.

Another thing that he said, which I think the street was also, I don't know how the street is interpreting it. We'll see what the Supreme Court says about it. Is his favorite word, which once again starts with a T.

>> I said tariff. My favorite word is tariff. >> True. But then I got a lot of heat from the fake news. I said,

I think in a couple weeks we're going to see what the Supreme Court says and if his favorite word continues to be tariff or if the Supreme Court says yeah, we're gonna have to reverse a lot of that stuff.

So again, I think the affordability argument around the Supreme Court or around the the the Trump administration is going to be a big thing going into 2026. Again, I think the bull case for 2026 is Fed is easing. Hopefully that continues and the AI trade is intact.

For the Republicans to win the midterms, they're going to have to win this argument around affordability because it seems like that is exactly what the Democrats are going after as in terms of their main message.

And so I think more and more and more we will be hearing the administration make their case for why they are the most affordable. You know, the question is will the American people believe that? And that's something we're going to have to see going into the next coming months.

Uh, our boy Cleo Fields, which is going to be taking over Nancy's position once she retires, looks like he loaded up on Netflix, folks. He bought it at a higher price than it is today.

November 20th, he bought around 200 to 500 grand of Niflex. This has not been the best buy so far. Netflix is down from those levels.

Uh so I mean it does seem like you have a couple more politicians outside of Cleop Fields that also loaded up on Netflix. The thing about this here and the reason why this is rather interesting is because I mean look this guy's in Congress. This guy probably has a little bit more access to information around if the deal is going to get done.

Now, a lot of it might rest on Trump's shoulder on it, like if Paramount or um Trump or Netflix is able to get Warner Brothers, but if he has a little bit of potential information that Netflix is definitely going to get Warner Brothers, you know, maybe that's why he ended up getting some of these shares.

So, he got this around November 20th. Again, he's been actively buying a lot of stocks. This guy is like legit legit in the markets buying stuff. He got Iran at like $10.

He had Open Door before it like ran up and he got it like two, three bucks. But you do see him trading and potentially Netflix is going to be the next one that works out. Where is Netflix in the pre-market?

We got about 15 minutes until the market opens. Netflix right here. Yeah, still red. I don't know. I'm staying out of Netflix. I thought about it over the past couple days after all this stuff happened over the weekend where, you know, Trump's going back and forth with all of them.

I do think Netflix going to end up getting this. Like my gut tells me Netflix gets that. Poly market says it's going to be paramount. there's like a 45% chance that Paramount gets it.

Um, I think Netflix ends up I think it's just going to be a long process and I don't know if I want to be part of that process.

Okay, let's do a poll today. Red or green, what are we thinking? Obviously, you know, the Fed meeting is really going to determine how this ends up playing out, but let's see what some people think as we get started.

And by the way, we have the Q3 employment cost index, which we got about 10 minutes ago. Looks like that's up a little bit. So, let's get that news real quick and then we'll keep going from there.

>> What are the numbers? >> The numbers are our third quarter employment cost index up 8/10en of a percent. That's a smidge lighter than the 9/10 we were expecting. And the last three quarters have been 9/10 from the last quarter 24 the first second quarter this year. And as I said, this is the third quarter and that would be the lightest going back to wow, you have to go back a ways to the second quarter of 2021.

It equaled it equal where we were in the third quarter of last year. So it has been more on the elevated side. The all-time high was 1.3% and that was in the what second quarter of 22. And everybody remembers uh it was the first half of 2022 where we had 9.1% uh inflation.

So we do understand that that is coming down somewhat. Uh what isn't coming down? You hear those hoofs in the background, Joe. That's the vigilantes riding.

You know, we settled the tenure last year at 457. Hey, I wouldn't be shocked if we get much closer to unchanged. We're hovering now at 420. Should we close anywhere 418 or higher? Those are three month high yield closes.

>> and that would not be pretty. I mean, if we get anywhere near back to 450 on the 10-year, we might have a stock market run, but you're going to have the credit market screaming that they don't agree with what's going on.

And so, we're really going to have to see today. Again, I'll be live at 2:20, 2 p.m. we get the announcement. Eastern Standard, 2:30, we get the FOMC meeting and all of us will come together to watch every syllable that Jal says and how it affects the broader market.

We got a piece of breaking news right here. China's Deep Seek is set to announce a new AI model that used Nvidia's Black Bull chips, which were smuggled into the country per the information.

Not sure how credible that is given it's the information, but we'll see if this is true. Deepseek reportedly tapped chips installed into data centers in various countries, then dismantled those chips and shipped them to China.

You know, it's not unbelievable that that happened because like at the end of the day, it's China. Like they find a way to smuggle plenty of things into the country. If they actually did train on Blackwell and this this this is true, which like maybe it is true. I think it's another reason why we should just be able to sell chips into China.

I mean, like if they're going to get it anyway, like we might as well get paid for it. If they're going to go through all the trouble of smuggling it, like like what the US is going to crack down on these chips and somehow stop Deep Seek from coming out with a new model.

It's like no, you're just never going to fully get rid of that. At some point, you might as well just regulate it if they're finding a way to to navigate. I think that's, you know, Jensen probably feels this. He doesn't want to say it.

But Jensen also is probably like, "Dude, like Singapore, Malaysia, they're they're not the they're not necessarily enemies with China. They might find a way to smuggle those ships into the region." And at that point, we might as well just sell it.

So, I don't know. We're going to have to see. I mean, obviously, the threats of national security are there, but like if we're giving them the H200 and we're keeping the Blackwell, it's not like we're protecting national security.

Like, yes, we're keeping a better chip than the Chinese, but the H200 is still a pretty damn good chip. I mean, it led to the first iterations of Chatt. So, it's not like we're cutting off China cold turkey from AI.

Like, we're giving them AI infrastructure. We're just trying to seem like we're better by not giving them the best infrastructure. But, at the end of the day, they're getting these models and they're going to be able to build on top of it.

I don't know if the AI war is going to come down to the quality of chips and quality of intelligence versus just the ability to implement that intelligence at scale.

Speaking of the department or speaking of war, we have the department of war. Uh you had your boy Pete Haggset come out yesterday and once again show that they are seriously embracing AI.

The future of American warfare is here and it's spelled AI. As technologies advance, so do our adversaries. But here at the War Department, we are not sitting idly by. Under the leadership of President Trump, America will lead the charge on this technological transformation by revolutionizing the way we win.

And that's why today we are unleashing Genai. Mil. This platform puts the world's most powerful frontier AI models, starting with Google Gemini, directly into the hands of every American warrior.

At the click of a button, AI models on Gen AI can be utilized to conduct deep research, format documents, and even analyze video or imagery at unprecedented speed.

Building on the great work of Under Secretary Emil Michael and his team, we will continue to aggressively field the world's best technology to make our fighting force more lethal than ever before. And all of it is Americanmade.

The possibilities with AI are endless. Now, let's get to work. >> The whether you like them or not, this administration is seriously, seriously embracing AI, and that is good for all of us that are investing in these AI companies.

Again, GE Verova CEO says, "We're investing in robotics and AI, expanding productivity." They announced a $10 billion buyback up from six billion, increased their dividend.

That's why GE Veranova is up 10% in the pre-market and that stock is getting some momentum. Microsoft said they were going to spend 17 billion over the next two years or I think four years in India on AI infrastructure.

Amazon this morning 35 billion in India over the next five years. Amazon said it's a latest investment. We'll focus on business expansion, AI capabilities, export growth and job creation inside the region.

So you've got a lot of these tech companies once again saying that they're going to invest more money into India and you know a lot of that ultimately is going to continue to fuel what we're seeing in the overall AI capex ecosystem.

All right, here's the headline from yesterday that really got people talking. Elon Musk SpaceX reportedly preparing for an an IPO worth 1.5 trillion next year.

Put in the chat if you think this is actually going to happen. Elon hasn't denied it yet. Um I'm taking the under on this. 1.5 trillion is a pretty big number. I don't think that happens next year.

I could understand how it could happen next year if Elon thinks the market's hot and it's time to go public, but he's also talked so many times about being happy with SpaceX being private because he doesn't have to deal with the quarterly earnings call.

Uh being public would be a whole different challenge. However, if the whole AI space data center argument continues to become stronger, Elon did repost something yesterday, quoting Sundar talking about uh space data centers.

I mean, you're probably going to need a lot of money to make that happen. And you know, the only way to get that type of money, I mean, you probably could get into the private markets, but Elon's going to be I mean, just any company would be more likely to tap the the public markets versus the private markets because you're going to need a lot more liquidity to make it conducive for shareholders, right?

It's hard to raise like $80 billion in the private markets at these valuations, which means you would need a a pretty aggressive IPO. This would be the largest IPO in human history if it does happen.

And I'm taking the under on it, but if it does, Rocket Lab is going to catch a massive bid next year because Rocket Lab is going to be seen as just like a sympathy play if you don't own SpaceX.

Uh Elon did do a new podcast yesterday. These were a couple clips from the podcast. Here was him talking about if he would have actually done Doge again, knowing what he knows now about the government.

Would you do Doge again knowing what you know now? >> I mean the thing is like I think in instead of doing Doge I I would have basically built you know worked on my companies essentially. So and not and the cars would they wouldn't have been burning the cars. Um

>> you gave up a lot to do. Uh yeah, like if you if you if you stop money going uh to uh going going for political corruption, they will they will lash out big time. >> Mhm. Um so they really want the money to keep blowing. Um, so if you stop it from flowing, there's like a very strong reaction to to stopping the money flowing.

>> After you were in DC for a while, did you become disillusioned with how it operates? >> Well, I I wouldn't say I was super illusioned to begin with. Uh, it it I mean, I guess it's just like you really want the least amount done by government possible.

So, you got Elon explicitly saying he regrets his time at Doge. Uh, and again, I was a support of Doge. I thought it had a real chance to do well, but ultimately you're seeing Elon realize that it's just really hard to deal with corruption in the government.

So, uh, that was a pretty good podcast for Elon last night. Had a bunch of different things that he talked about and one of those things was Doge. This was the clip that was going viral yesterday. I'm going to play a minute 50 of this around Gavin Baker who's a tech investor talking about data centers in space getting a lot of people to think this is why SpaceX wants to go public.

>> Well, it's funny. In the data center, the racks are over a certain distance connected with fiber optics and that just means a laser going through a cable. The only thing faster than a laser going through a fiber optic cable is a laser going through absolute vacuum. So if you can link these satellites in space together using lasers, you actually have a faster and more coherent network than in a data center on Earth.

Okay, for training that's going to take a long time. Yeah, just because it's so big. But for inference, let's think about the user experience. You know, when I asked Gro about you and it gave the nice answer, here's what happened. A radio wave traveled from my cell phone to a cell tower. Then it hit the base station, went into a fiber optic cable, went to some sort of metro aggregation facility in New York, right within like, you know, 10 blocks of here. There's a small little metro router that's routed those packets to a big XAI data center somewhere.

Okay. And then the computation was done and it came back over the same path. If the satellites can communicate directly with the phone and Starlink has demonstrated direct to cell capability, you just go boom boom. It's a much better lowerc cost user experience. So in every way, data centers in space from a first principles perspective are superior to data centers on Earth.

Look, I don't know enough about data centers in space. You got a lot of questions in the chat. How do you maintain all the equipment from data centers in space? What's the max amount of watts a solar panel can absorb? I don't know. I don't have the answer to these questions.

All I know is if Sundar and Elon and Bezos start seriously thinking about this, I mean, who knows? Maybe this becomes a growth spurt that gets the street a bit more excited about what could happen.

And, you know, maybe that definitely catches a bit for Rock Lab. So, we're going to have to see, but that is one of the things that's definitely very important.

and potentially could create a bid for the entire space industry long term. Uh, Nvidia just responded to that deepseek information article. They said, "We haven't received tip. We haven't received tips of phantom data centers and the smuggling see seems far-fetched."

Nvidia says, "We haven't received tips of phantom data centers and smuggling concerns seem far-fetched." Nvidia right there. I mean, you never know. Maybe Nvidia goes red today just based on these smuggling accusations of China getting blackwell because Trump's probably not gonna be happy about that.

But Nvidia trying to break through 185 as we have a minute until the market opens. All right. So, in about 4 hours, we will have the FOMC meeting again.

I'll be live at 2:20. I think we're going to have the head of Palunteer's energy division, Matt Babin, also join the show at around 10:45.

So, we'll get to hear from him on this ship building contract, 450 million over the past two years that pounder got last night. We're going to see what happens with the FOMC. JPAL hopefully getting ready to give us this rate cut.

I think the biggest question is not if we're going to get this rate cut or not, even though there is a 10% chance that we don't get it, but rather is it priced in? And it's probably priced in.

So then the question is how does the market interpret it? Has the credit market interpret it? You know, we're getting awfully close towards the end of December. What does that mean for sort of the end of year momentum that could be happening or not happening?

And so today, we're going to hopefully get some answers to a lot of those questions and see how the market goes from there.

All right, Wednesday, December 10th. Thank you everybody for being here. It is 9:30 a.m. and once again, the stock market is now open.

All right, wake your ass up. Let's get into it. Nvidia actually opens green here. A lot of the market immediately goes red, including JP Morgan that had a nasty 5% decline yesterday.

185 on Nvidia trying to hold on to that screen. Netflix goes red. Rockab, no surprise that one's going red. That had a big move yesterday, but that one's down about 1%. Hoodie 1.2%. That's down SoFi. Goodness gracious. 2667. This one cannot catch a break. But that one's down.

2669 down about 6% on the day. Meta down half a percent. Microsoft down a full 2%. I did not see the headline on Meta. If anyone has it, let me know. But I don't see anything crazy on Meta.

Amcor, wow. 4559. My goodness. This one not stopping. Look at that. Even holding the 40s, I think is incredible. Amcore right there. 4534. That's up about 1.54% on the day.

Reddit 237 almost pushing 240. Rubric 92 they had a great earnings. Adobe that's flat. IQ that's down about 3%.

Hims him is expanding to the UK as per a press release this morning. That stock down about 1.7%. Oracle they have earnings today after the bell.

We'll be live covering a crowd strike at 514. Tesla 445. Warner Brothers up almost 3%. Looks like the street's thinking this deal is going to get done.

The more that gets closer to $30, the more the street thinks that someone is getting this deal. 2906, that's up 2.81% on the day. Uh, Fix Comfort Systems, they just got into the S&P 500. That's up another 1.4%.

Aries Management also got into the S&P 500. That's up a little bit on the day. Snowflake still getting hit after those earnings. I don't understand why Snowflake took that big of a decline, but they did. That's down about 1.3%.

Oaklo's down 3%. Costco's up a little bit. Bloom Energy down 3.4%. Costco's earnings tomorrow. MP Materials down 1.6. Rivian down.37.

Where is Palenteer? We are at 184 up about 1.28% on the day. Wow. Photonics 37%. My goodness. This is a small company. You know, it's only a $2 billion market cap. It was less than two billion this morning.

So, I mean, if anyone got into this one 40% on the day, absolutely incredible. That one is going green. Nvidia still holding 185. Netflix at 9667. Amcor is trying to go for 46. Pounder at 184. Microsoft at 481.

So 2665, Robin Hood 13452, AS probably down with Rocket Lab. AS about 67%. BMR, are we getting a move? We're down. That's likely because ETH is well, ETH is flat.

Nothing too crazy on ETH. BMR taking a hit by 1%. Meta also taking a hit by 1%. Not sure why that one's getting hit, but it is getting hit.

Well, I mean, I guess that Bloomberg article highlighted some internal issues with Meta around their AI initiatives, and that could be an issue. S&P 682 were read.

Uh, TD Cohen names Amazon their top mega cap internet pick with a $300 target. You've got pretty much every firm now saying Amazon or sorry, Amazon, not Meta, uh, 285 to 300 across the board.

They reaffirmed their buy rating, $300, top pick for 226, 229 on Amazon. That's up a little bit on the day. Apple 280 277. We were at 287 last week. That one trying to get back to that 280 level.

Robin right there at 13425. S&P is 682. The Q's are also slightly red. 623 down about 23% on the day.

Again, I think a lot of price action is likely not going to be significant until we get uh JPAL. So, you know, if you're trading this, you you know, you could be trading it, but I think a lot of the volume up or down is going to happen once shape delivers his decision and more importantly how he talks about that decision.

Marll, that's up 3% on the day. American Express reports US consumer retail spending increased by 9% in parts of November.

We've been getting a lot of good news around Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the overall US consumer, which is really I mean, Lululemon is on Thursday, which is tomorrow.

If Lulu crushes, I think you've got a a decent challenge to the consumer's weak narrative. Lulu, right, they're up about 1%. Because pretty much every other company in the retailer space, whether it's Best Buy, Burlington, Abbercrombie, Urban Outfitters, etc.

Five below, which is like a dollar store type of company. The fact that they crushed earnings by 25%. Like that it's just it really is challenging this consumer week narrative.

And so we're going to see what Lulu does tomorrow. Ethereum right there 3,300 holding on to that level. Tesla trying to get back to 450. Warner Bros. keeps going.

Maybe the street really thinks this deal is happening. Question is, who do they think is going to be paying for this deal? 2912, that's up 3.03% on the day for Warner Brothers.

Did anyone buy Warner Bros. at like 26 27 just for the arbitrage? I was thinking of it, but it's also the risk of like the deal getting blocked completely and then the stock gets cut in half because there's no reason it would be trading at $27 if it wasn't for this buyout offer.

But that one's getting hit. AMD right there, 219. You do have a headline on AMD and Intel. Intel and AMD accused of failing to block chips in Russia missiles.

Um, okay. That could be affecting Intel and AMD if their chips are being seen in Russian missiles. Not sure if that's correct, but that is the headline. Intel down about 3.3% right there.

GameStop, not the best earnings. They um they beat on EPS. They missed on revenue down 5%.

So again, GameStop is in their rebuilding phase and they've been rebuilding for a while, but might continue to take some more time.

Um, GameStop around 21 is good buy. You know, they have a lot of cash. They have a lot of cash. Question is, you know, does the cash keep them afloat at these levels? I got to go deeper in their earnings.

I do think the trading card business has some potential, but ultimately you're going to have to see, you know, if that's what you want to bet on for this one. Wow. Amcore 46, dude.

Stock talk and I I mean, you know, when we were discussing Amore 30, he really did not expect 45 to 50 until mid 2026. You know, he was optimistic, but he felt it was going to take some time for this thing would really play out.

This one in the past three weeks has played out. So, if anyone sells here, I can't blame you. I'm holding out for 50 before I start trimming.

Um, which, you know, I think now that the company's being rerated, now you're getting a lot more American onore manufacturing uh, sentiment go positive. I think 50 is not that crazy. Obviously, the stock getting much closer to 50 also helps.

But it does seem like 50 is not crazy. But if you want to take some profits, if you bought at 30 at 45, that's not horrible. I know he has sold some of his leaps that he has or not leaps but like I think he has like February calls on this.

but maybe 50 is in the play going into 2026. Meta right there 648 Meta is still getting a hit that's down about 1.35%. But again it's yeah it's weird that Amcor is pumping again.

like a lot of these names that are pumping the only reason they're pumping is or the only reason they're alive is because of Nvidia. Like Amcor is helping packaging for semiconductors and manufacturing inside of a fab in Arizona for TSMC.

TSMC's demand is I mean they have a lot of different customers but Nvidia is a big part of it. By the way, I think their t the TSM monthly metrics came out yesterday and it was like 67 billion last month like just incredible incredible growth.

But it is very weird that a lot of these names are making a move and Nvidia is not the name making a move even though it's part of it. Amazon above 230. That is nice to see. I agree with TD Cohen and a lot of these other firms.

I think this is a really strong pick going into 2026. I don't think I don't know. I don't think Amazon disappoints in 2026. It's It's probably going to end the year unless we get, you know, a really big move over the next coming weeks relatively flat.

Maybe you get five to 7% out of it. Maybe if it really breaks out to 260, you get that 10% move. But if not, it's going to definitely underperform the S&P 500.

two years in a row of underperforming the S&P 500 with all the margin margin efficiencies and productivity gains on Amazon. I feel like it's unlikely. So, we're going to see what happens with Amazon, but that one getting a nice 2% move right there.

23150 as that one is up. Yes, we saw SoFi's 5% cashback offer. Decent offer. Stocks not really reflecting it right now.

Again, I think SoFi is a buy here. I think NTO had I I think Nto has some plan with the dilution and maybe I'm too naive for trusting his uh intuition, but I don't know if you raise 1.5 billion and just let the stock falter.

I think they're going to do something with the money. The question is, is it more loan originations? Is it an acquisition? No one knows, but hopefully in the coming days we get a lot more information on that.

Amcor still moving 4645, that's up 4% on the day. Nvidia 184, S&P 500, 682, BMR, that's down about 1.3. and pound share. There you go. Getting a little bit of a boost right there. 187 now.

Did hit 193 after hours yesterday um off of that $450 million contract with the US Navy for two years. And that was getting some more excitement. Rocket Lab, are we green? We are not green, but we're still holding 53 on Rocket Lab.

Is Oracle a buy before earnings? Put in the chat if you think so. I feel like if you are fully okay with bag holding, which means you cannot cry if this thing dumps below 200, then yes.

But the risk of it dumping below 200, if they say anything around their debt financing, around their lack of RPO growth outside of OpenAI, I think you take her down.

So, I will not be buying before earnings. I did think of it, but granted, last time I didn't buy before earnings and it pumped to 350, but last time they didn't have $40 billion in debt and they actually had positive free cash flow.

for the next five years they will have negative free cash flow because of all the debt and so obviously you know things have changed especially given their credit default swaps have also gone to the moon.

so I think I think Oracle can really beat and raise and surprise the stock is higher but I think the risk-to-reward might not be the best right here Amazon 231 Nvidia still red just below 185.

but she is trying GEV massive massive move on GEV if you opponent. Congrats. Wow. 718 15% move. This stock is now up, I believe, 85% for the year. Never mind. 112% for the year.

Talk about a bull market, bro. Talk about a bull market. $200 billion company was a hundred billion, less than 100 billion in January.

I mean, imagine just being heavily over overweight. GEV. That was your year. you didn't have to do anything. You didn't have to worry about the day-to-day. You didn't have to like you just had to heavily allocate to one name. Ended up working out.

And there's a lot of names like this. That's the beauty of a bull market. There's a and and this is happening for a reason. Like it's not meme stock mania with GE. Like they increase the dividend, they increase the buyback by 60%.

I mean like yeah, you can get the street that gets very excited when a company does shareholder friendly things like that. Apple right there at 277, S&P at 682, pounder still holding 186.

Weeble back above 10 or at least it touched $10 for the first time in a couple weeks. Google at 316. I see Google making that move back into the uh mid3s.

Apploving at 714. This was up from 525. Had a great opportunity a couple weeks ago. Grab at 512. PayPal at 60. Zeta at 19. That one holding on to that level.

Service now at 846. And then New Bank at 1656. Netflix are we still red? Wow. 9568.

Lowest we've seen it in about a week. six-month low. Is this a six-month low? This is Last time we got here was April 2025. We are approaching Liberation Day. Liberation Day it bottomed at 82.

So, we're not fully there yet. Goodness. April prices on freaking Netflix. Nabi is right there down 2.9. Meta goes down 1.2. Microsoft down almost three. Uber down five. S&P goes red. Hoodie's probably getting hit.

Hoodie. Yep, that's down half a percent. And then Palunteer, that's holding up at 184. Why do they hate Nvidia? I don't get it.

Call Vlad. Tell them to take the sell button off of Nvidia. I got rid of all my short calls on Nvidia, by the way. I tweeted about this on Monday. I have no more short calls on video.

No covered calls at 174. Ironically, on the day I was driving to the dentist, um there was like some traffic and I literally just I bought all them back. Like it was a it was a very like spontaneous decision, but I was like, "Dude, if Nvidia is at this level and these calls have generated enough theta decay because I I I I rolled them out back in like freaking what July, August, and the stock is down from those levels like and I'm getting a little bit of a profit on buying back these calls. like I I'll leave these shares naked and let this thing run.

And I mean, we got a run from 170 to 185, but the question is, can we get a run back up to 200? And we're going to have to see 180 275 that's down 1.2%.

Isn't this the fake move before the FOMC? Yes, technically that's true. Honestly, when JPA's talking, all of that's going to be fake. And I know we're going to get super excited if we're pumping. I'll be super excited as well, but like it's not real.

And if we're dumping, we just have to remember it's not real. 3:30 to 4 p.m., those final 30 minutes is when we see how the market's actually thinking about it.

10 years down a little bit, so that's good. At least if the market's down. And again, I'm being hyperbolic on Nvidia right here, but realistically, when JPAL talks, we're going to know what ends up playing out.

All right, I guess we are red heading into the FMC now. I actually like that, and I'm sure other people like that more than ripping green because that's just setting us up for disappointment.

So, I'll be back in two hours. uh 2:20 p.m. Eastern, I'll be live. 2 p.m. we'll get the decision. Most likely will be a cut. If we don't, you'll know about it. You won't even have to check my Twitter. You'll you'll see the portfolio react pretty quickly.

But at 2:30, we're going to officially know what ends up happening and we'll keep going from there.

Uh, we have an update right here. The Sandbox CEO is about Nvidia AI chips to China. Let's get his perspective on this and see what he thinks. They also partnered with the Pentagon today, which is why they're live.

>> Fact, the founder of Deepseek uh was one of the big winners and investors in that company. there's an ecosystem there that is now betting on domestic Chinese chip firms such as Huawei, more threads, Cambercon and others uh to win in that game. So we want to also make sure that we in the US with our firms like Nvidia and others have a level playing field to access all markets around the world. So there's definitely a balance there. But coming back to China on another front, uh one of the areas that the Pentagon is very concerned about is the quantum attack from China as well.

So we have the AI attack using Genai as a vector uh for infiltration into US companies and into sensitive areas of the Pentagon. Uh we need to protect against that. That's what we're doing now with Active Guard. And we also need to protect against the upcoming quantum attack. The Q day is coming up uh in the next number of years. And that's the day that uh Chinese quantum computers can start to deconstruct and get into RSA and other encrypted material.

Wow. You got a quantum argument around why the US needs to be a lot more sophisticated when it comes to dealing with the threat of quantum.

>> RSA is what the Pentagon and all US companies use to encrypt material to transmit confidential information across the internet. This goes down with the advent of uh and rise of scaled quantum computers. So two attacks AI and differently quantum as well.

>> right uh Jack over the weekend it was Saxo Bank that had their list of 2026 they call them outrageous predictions but one of them was that QA would arrive next year. Bank accounts they write emails digital wallets are no longer encrypted which leads to the collapse of Bitcoin unquote. Is that too early?

>> Uh, well, they put it in their claims and and I know that, but uh, Qday is definitely coming. Is it coming next year? Probably not. I wouldn't agree with that timing, but is it coming in the next few years? Yes, it is clear. The Chinese have made it clear. They're not hiding it, Carl. It is in their plans, and they make very clear milestone developments and accomplishments towards Qday. They have a very, very strong program under Panjane, a very well-known physicist.

They have more than a thousand people working on this issue on this Manhattan project to create a quantum computer that cracks the cyber security that we all use every single day. Uh when you're on WhatsApp, Carl, and it says encrypted end to end, that encryption is the one that will go down. Not to mention the Swift system, not to mention the banking system, the telco system, the electric grid, and of course, back to the Pentagon. our story today protecting the Pentagon against those quantum attacks.

So, um I appreciate the Zaxo Bank putting it out there, but it's coming up very soon. And here's the point, Carl. Here's the serious point that it takes a while to transfer to the new uh cyber security that protects against quantum attack. Uh the Pentagon to its credit has been now working on this issue and now uh just in the last month has now adopted active guard our software which protects it against this. But we now need the hundreds of large companies and SMBs to also move to the new postquantum standards that were issued by NISK. just

>> I mean look that argument that he just said in and of itself is part of the reason why the quantum names have been holding on to a lot of their momentum. I mean ju just the chance that what he's saying is correct even if the probability is low means that the quantum stocks are going to catch a bit and that the quantum stocks are likely going to be more important than not.

Quite interesting though making that argument especially in the context of China. His concern is not even about the the blackwell chips. His concern is more about China quantum and the investments they're making there affecting the United States.

Carvana right they're up 1.2%. Nvidia still down now officially low of day 1% at 183 as that one continues to go red.

All right folks let's bring someone on to the show today. Um some of you guys have heard the Twitter spaces I did with him. I think about seven months ago I was on there with Iliano and Chad and we're going to get into a lot of stuff today.

Again, the big headline from yesterday for those that missed it, the US Navy has announced a 448 million 2-year deal with Palinger in an investment in the ship building operating system ship OS.

Ship OS will leverage Palanteer software to bring modern best practices to the complex data heavy environment of Navy ship building. Let's bring on the head of energy and natural resources at Palunteer, Mr. Matt Babin. Matt, thanks for being on.

>> Hey, great to see you again. >> So, it has been a while since we talked. I think it was seven months ago around that uh March, April time. A lot has changed for Pounder. First of all, congratulations on all the success of the company. Before we get into the ship OS deal that was announced yesterday, um, generally just what has the last seven months been like for you as you've been navigating the energy part of business?

>> Uh, it's been it's been busy. Um, and I I'd say I've been splitting time between between that work and and the Navy work. Um, and and really spending more and more time on the Navy work uh recently and moving forward. Um, they're they're more similar than you'd think. Um, you know, they're both very they're very highly regulated areas, right? There's a lot of, you know, subsafe certification is, you know, incredibly complex. Um, each submarine a submarine takes, you know, tens of millions of labor hours. An aircraft carrier has a billion parts that go into it.

So 20,000 ft underground and complex environments where things have to work is is very similar to, you know, here's a here's a submersible that's two football fields long um and it needs to be built faster but with not compromising anything on on you know safety and and it needs to work then for 50 years. Um so that they're they're actually similar in a strange way.

So, let's get into uh ship OS. Now, I think my audience and anyone who's really followed Pounder over the past couple years understands that ship building is something the company has cared about for a long time. The Hyandai Heavy Industries deal uh was basically executing on this future of shipyard vision in South Korea. It seems like that's now coming to the Navy. So, I guess what was the part that led to this deal? And I guess why do you think the Navy ended up picking Pounder to implement ship OS?

Yeah. So, we've been doing this work um for the last few months um under some some proof of concepts with with a private ship builder um with a public shipyard uh with you know just under 10 10 suppliers. Um and I think you're right to call out this is it's a similar workflow to some of the Hyundai work. Um you know the the Navy has uh has gone and and seen some of that work. Um it's it's a big world but it's a small community that builds ships of this sort of size and complexity.

Um and if you look at the infrastructure of the supply chain of of things like submarines or other other large things like this it it does look again I'll just draw on the energy analogy because we've talked about that a lot before. You know the work with BP sort of started with this vision that Mr. Dudley had of I want to chase a molecule from the sand face all the way through to the export terminal or where I monetize this. And that pulls in a reservoir model that pulls in the way I operate my drilling campaigns, the way I operate my wells, my offshore assets, my midstream and transportation, my refineries, my commercial fuels and marketing.

And if you look at sort of all of the steps that go into building a submarine, right? It's I have a supply chain of thousands of different companies spread all around the country, all of them make different parts and pieces. Those pieces come into uh construction by other suppliers. Those pieces then come into a module. Those modules turn into super modules and that those super modules turn into the boat. And so this idea of I want to be able to securely share data up and down that chain all the way up to the Navy.

that looks a lot like Maven on sort of individual commanders up to COCOMs up to the to the department. Um this idea of I need to be able to flexibly solve a diverse set of problems across that supply chain. Um individual suppliers have different bottlenecks, right? These are different companies uh of different sizes that do different things and and so I think what was attractive in the pilot work we did and sort of the proof of value was time to target how how quickly can you show value of the software the flexibility of the workflow application.

So what what is the actual problem we're solving for an individual human who's oftentimes on the floor not in an office. Um, and then how do you match that flexibility with a canonical underlying data model so that the Navy can actually look at the thing they care about, which is is the boat going to get delivered faster or not.

>> I think what's really exciting about this is that we've seen Pounder take over a variety of industries and become like a deacto operating system. And as you're mentioning, you have vendors, you have distributors, you have suppliers, you have subsupliers, you have a lot of these different things that need to be interconnected with each other in order to make it actually work at the end of the day. Not to mention the complexity of managing a submarine. Uh, is that how you're seeing the future of ship OS? Is it just going to become a deacto operating system that you think can be the basis for how the United States Navy operates in the process of ship building?

>> I think it could and I think that again the sort of openness and extensibility of the platform is is a valuable thing here too, right? Right. I mean, if again just just use Maven smart system as the analogy, Maven was built originally with the idea of you're going to plug in detection models that that we do not build and that we may never see, right?

And so if you look at lots of other pieces of building a complicated piece of, you know, deployment infrastructure, let's call it like a submarine. There are parts of that that that we will never build models or systems for. Um there's other scheduling software, there's other modeling software, there's radiographic testing, and the ability for the Navy to then use this as an orchestration layer the way we see other companies uh and other institutions doing that I think is um is something that I'm excited about building moving forward.

>> Uh you talked a little bit about the complexities of of working with the US Navy and getting this done. I think last time we talked BP had just signed their extension navigating a large scale partnership with a very large organization that is managing um massive massive levels of confidential data. How has that process been like to actually get the Navy to give you guys the trust to be able to ultimately implement an entire operating system?

>> Yeah. Um it's a good question. Again, I think you know I've I've been here a while. Um we when I joined we only had a government business. So we we really did sort of cut our teeth on building a platform that could securely hold classified data. And then all along the way we we've gone to okay well what does it take to then get an IL6 certification to be able to do that in the cloud, right? What does that look like on Fed Ramp to for other people to be able to build software that they can deploy into secure spaces?

Um the the Navy's version of this that's that's relevant for submarines is is NNPI, right? Um there's public information about this out there on you know naval nuclear propulsion information. Um and so similar to to other work we've had to prove how the platform can hold data there how we can enforce that um on on everything along the way. Again like everything else and and you know this I know but um the the data the data remains the property of of the data owner right?

Um and and so what we're doing is um sort of enforcing the regulations the Navy has set on the way data can be shared from Navy requirements down to suppliers who who build those pieces and from those suppliers back up to to the Navy including uh data that's that's sensitive.

>> Uh I'm sure there's an answer to this. Um it might be a general answer more specific answer but AI you know everyone's wondering about how that is intercorrelate with all this stuff is this just AI as a workflow as a sort of enterprise workflow gets automated in a very specific use case for ship building as an operating system. Yeah, what we've started doing, I mean, the the work over the past few months with the pilot is really, you know, what what came through to me was a lot of these suppliers are are relatively I'm going to say they're small in comparison to the Navy, right?

I mean, you're you're talking about a couple hundred employees. Um, they're all over the place and and they're really really good at what they do, right? Like these these are companies that have done the same thing for decades and they are craftsmen of craftsmen and women of the highest order of of doing like really really hard work in in places that are 120 degrees in the summer and freezing cold in the winter cuz the bays have to be open for you know circulation and and all of this stuff.

Um and what you see in a lot of places is that the people who are best at the technical parts of that job also know the most about their company. That's not unique to to ship building and manufacturing that you see that everywhere, right? But if you pull your best welder off a line to build a schedule and the way they have to build that schedule is manual based on paperwork orders and what they call travelers and then an adjustment of who shows up for work that day or who doesn't, that's all time that that person isn't welding.

If you can automate that schedule building process so that that welder doesn't have to build a schedule and they can just verify, yes, that schedule makes sense. That schedule makes sense on the requirements I have from the Navy. That schedule makes sense in terms of this work is very high complexity and can only be done by these two people. It makes sense in terms of I'm not slotting two things at the same fixture, the same physical space in in my facility. Right?

So what we really saw in the pilot was AI and automation for all of these things that take your highv value high-skll workers off the line of doing the jobs they want to do and give them more time back to do that. And that's where I think you see in the Navy press release some of sort of you know taking 160 hours down to 10 minutes.

that gives you then you know four work days to bend metal in instead of look for data and and go do things right. Uh and so the first application of AI in this has been how do we automate these parts of the job that that no one really wants to do and have gotten bigger and bigger and bigger over time because of the sort of proliferation of different systems and different processes and regulations. So let's still get all of the data from those places. Let's still do that work, but let's actually build rather than a human taking dozens of hours to build a manual schedule, let's automatically build eight schedules and have that human evaluate which one makes the most sense today, lock that in and then and then get to work welding again.

Beyond that, then I think we're going to see a lot more of how do you coordinate between those different nodes, right? So, you start with sort of at each chain, how at each part of the chain, how that makes sense. But then, you know, if you make pieces that come to me, I want to know if you're changing your schedule so that I can prepare for the pieces you're going to send to me and then the ship builder knows what they're going to get from me at what schedule.

>> I love it. Matt Babin, thank you for joining the show. I'm putting Matt's Twitter in the chat if anyone wants to follow him there and you can follow him on X. Uh, last question for you, Matt. Again, thank you for taking the time to do this. I got to ask this because my audience uh loved when I ask this question at the end of every show. Uh super random, but it'll humanize you a little bit for everybody. What's your favorite movie?

>> Oh, um I'll say favorite holiday movie because it's in my head. Uh is is Home Alone. Um I think Home Alone is excellent. >> Uh one one >> I'm a two guy. I'm a two guy. I like two. All right. I like it. >> Yeah. >> And has that has that been like a child nostalgic type of movie for you?

>> Um, it is. And I think then um as you grow up as a parent, it takes on a whole different meaning. All right. I love it. Matthew, thanks so much for being on the show. And we'll see you again. >> Later.

All right. Home Alone. Dude, Home Alone 2 legit is I was talking about this I think two weeks ago. That is like I think objectively a top five Christmas movie.

Um, so yeah, I'm a Home Alone 2 guy. Home Alone one is legit, but Home Alone 2, Dude, Home Alone 2 is New York. Aid has never watched one. What are you talking about? Of course I've seen Home Alone 2 is one of the first movies I think I saw as a kid.

while the S&P goes red and Nvidia new low of a day. Why do they hate Nvidia? Nvidia is the reason for all of this momentum in the past three years.

Freaking beat earnings by 60%. They can't let her win. Goodness gracious. Once again, Redit will watch it tonight. You guys are funny. But Home Alone 2 is uh I think an objectively amazing Christmas movie.

Wow. Netflix. When's the last time it got to these lows? 9478. last. Oh, a six-month low. Is this a six-month low? This is Last time we got here was April 2025. We are approaching Liberation Day. Liberation Day it bottomed at 82.

So, we're not fully there yet. Goodness. April prices on freaking Netflix. Nabi is right there down 2.9. Meta goes down 1.2. Microsoft down almost three. Uber down five. S&P goes red. Hoodie's probably getting hit.

Hoodie. Yep, that's down half a percent. And then Palunteer, that's holding up at 184. Why do they hate Nvidia? I don't get it.

I got rid of all my short calls on Nvidia, by the way. I tweeted about this on Monday. I have no more short calls on video. No covered calls at 174.

Ironically, on the day I was driving to the dentist, um there was like some traffic and I literally just I bought all them back. Like it was a it was a very like spontaneous decision, but I was like, "Dude, if Nvidia is at this level and these calls have generated enough theta decay because I I I I rolled them out back in like freaking what July, August, and the stock is down from those levels like and I'm getting a little bit of a profit on buying back these calls. like I I'll leave these shares naked and let this thing run.

And I mean, we got a run from 170 to 185, but the question is, can we get a run back up to 200? And we're going to have to see 180 275 that's down 1.2%.

Isn't this the fake move before the FOMC? Yes, technically that's true. Honestly, when JPA's talking, all of that's going to be fake. And I know we're going to get super excited if we're pumping. I'll be super excited as well, but like it's not real.

And if we're dumping, we just have to remember it's not real. 3:30 to 4 p.m., those final 30 minutes is when we see how the market's actually thinking about it.

10 years down a little bit, so that's good. At least if the market's down. And again, I'm being hyperbolic on Nvidia right here, but realistically, when JPAL talks, we're going to know what ends up playing out.

All right, I guess we are red heading into the FMC now. I actually like that, and I'm sure other people like that more than ripping green because that's just setting us up for disappointment.

So, I'll be back in two hours. uh 2:20 p.m. Eastern, I'll be live. 2 p.m. we'll get the decision. Most likely will be a cut. If we don't, you'll know about it. You won't even have to check my Twitter. You'll you'll see the portfolio react pretty quickly.

But at 2:30, we're going to officially know what ends up happening and we'll keep going from there.