Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. We are live. Thank you everybody for being here. Good morning. We had a lot to talk about. We got a green premarket which is very nice to see. Hopefully that green which is continuing from the overnight markets yesterday can continue into the actual market open and we're going to find out in about 45 minutes.

Uh we got some China headlines that are relatively bullish which is why I think the markets are actually green in the pre and we're going to get some more updates on that China stuff throughout the entire day. So hopefully that stuff is not as bad going into Seoul where President Trump will be meeting with Xi Jinping, the Chinese president on November 1st. By the way, uh Trump might be meeting with Kim Jong-un on November 1st as well. So that was a new update we found out about today. So we're going to see if that happens. President Trump was the only president in American history that actually met with the uh dictator in North Korea uh back in 2018. So, that might happen again going into the end of October, early November.

We got Tesla and Netflix this week. It's going to be a big one, and we're going to see what happens with Tesla and Netflix. We'll do a little bit of an earnings preview and see what we've got going on there. We had a bunch of different updates for some of these tech stocks in the pre-marketing, including some uh upgrades on Apple, these iPhone 17 pre-order numbers, and then actual order numbers are starting to come in, and it's pretty damn juicy. You got one firm even raising Apple to 275 and another firm raising them to 310. first $300 up here on Apple that we've seen in a long time. So, we'll talk about that. We'll go through some of those details.

and then we'll talk about Amazon because Amazon had some issues in the uh in the pre-market, not just the stock, but the actual company itself and that affected Robin Hood, Coinbase, Snapchat, all the companies that rely on AWS. So, we'll talk about that and keep going from there.

All right, thank you everybody for being here. Let's get started. We got a lot to get into. Hassets on CNBC right now. We'll get to him in a second. He's talking about this government shutdown. Hopefully he's saying something positive about the shutdown. He does have the quote right here that I I think the shutdown is likely to end sometime this week, which is kind of what I think a lot of people were expecting. Uh and if the shutdown doesn't end, the White House will look at stronger measures. Hopefully, it ends up uh getting fixed in the next coming days.

Yes, happy Diwali to everybody as well. For those that do celebrate it, Indian holiday, I am going to be going back home tonight to uh see some family for Dvali. So, if you are Indian and you do celebrate it, happy Dvali to everybody as well. It's kind of a what is it? It's it's it's I mean it's basically a holiday that se uh that that celebrates good over evil if I had to sum it up. I mean there's a lot of backstory to what good over evil means but at its core it's a celebration of good over evil. So that's what we got on the Bali.

All right, so let's get started. I think we got to start with this China news because this is the most bullish stuff we've had over the past couple of days and that is why the markets are green in the pre. Uh Trump last night basically calmed down a lot of concerns when it came to deescalation around um China and this was stuff that you know the market really was looking for and as a result of getting it I think that's why we are seeing this green momentum. S&P 500 667 if we can get 670 maybe 673 which is alltime highs is not that crazy to achieve.

Tesla's up 1%. Palanteer's up 1%. Hoodie up 3%. Google's up. Grab's up. Reddit's up. Amazon's up even with Amazon's issues in the pre-market. Meta's up. Salesforce, AMD, SoFi, a lot of this based on what Trump said last night uh around China. And what did he say? Well, basically he said that he wants to resolve things and he doesn't want to get into this massive trade war with China.

>> Uh now they're paying an unbelievable amount of money to the United States. They probably can't pay that much. And I'm okay with that. We can lower that, but they have to do things for us, too. It's no longer a one-way street. Yeah. >> What would you lower it to, do you think? >> Depends. I mean, we'll have to see what they want. One of the penalties we have in because they're sending in fentinol, we have a 20%, as you know, a 20% tariff on that, but they'd be paying about 157% tariff, which is, you know, record setting type tariff. Uh, I don't want them to do that. I want to help China. I want to not looking to hurt China, but they have to give us things, too.

>> Mr. President, >> as you can see right there, pretty bullish, right? I want to help China. I don't want to hurt China, but they have to give us some stuff, too. He also goes on to then talk about how he doesn't want to play the rare earth mineral game with China and he wants China to actually cooperate. China's also, you know, said over the past couple days that they are ready to work with the US and decoupling from them would be irrational.

And then here's the biggest thing that happened that kind of went under notice over the weekend. This was Scott Bent talking, for lack of a better word, talking smack about one of the Chinese officials uh last week and then we have an update on what happened to one of those Chinese officials. B and C. Therefore, we had to do D. And that that's not true. Is there there was a low lower level trade person who was slightly unhinged here in August. Uh I think his name is Lee Lee Kangong. and uh you know threatening saying that the chi China would unleash chaos on the global system if the US went ahead with uh our docking fees for Chinese ships and uh this is clearly something that they were planning all along. I I think that things can deescalate that we we don't want to have to escalate. Uh we have things that are

>> I think things can deescalate. we don't want to escalate. And then last night, China's top trade negotiator, Lee, the guy that descent just mentioned, was removed as a permanent World Trade Organization representative. So, I mean, you're talking about some major progress. Not only is Trump saying we want to deescalate with China, then Bent who's calling out the quote unquote unhinged representative from China as one of their top rep one of their top trade negotiators. He gets removed as a permanent representative with the World Trade Organization. Meaning Bent just is not going to have to deal with this guy anymore. He's going to have to deal with someone who's probably uh a bit more reasonable.

Yes, he got a black guy. Exactly. Maybe Bent had a had a role in getting this guy removed. But the point is it's deescalating and this is very very nice to see and as long as that continues to happen maybe this China scuffle that has been taking place over the past couple of weeks is not that big of a deal and as a result that would be very good for markets.

Uh CleanSpark getting an upgrade right here look at that 2183 up 11%. The headline right here is CleanSpark has hired a industry veteran in the AI compute space Jeffrey Thomas as the senior vice president of AI data centers. All right. So, Clean Sparks making the full-on pivot right here to a data center play outside of a Bitcoin miner. And I'm sure you know they will still engage in Bitcoin mining, but hiring someone from the industry to lead their AI compute data center businesses, that likely means you're getting a bit of a pivot.

So, CleanSpark right there, that is up 11%. Again, a lot of the Bitcoin miners had a crappy week last week. Cipher is up 6%, Terolf is up, Bit Farm's up, Hive is up, Marathon's up, Riot's up, Galaxy up, and then IN is also up in the premarket. All of them getting some love as the broader market goes green and the S&P 500 up about 041%. Micron by the way going crazy. They got an upgrade to 245 this morning. I know not everyone there's not a majority of people that invest in semiconductors that are in Micron but there's a decent chunk. Micron right they're up 4%. I mean it's not the hottest semiconductor name but it is one of those names that has developed an audience and you know this thing was at 105 eight months ago. Now it's at 210. So not too bad. We are seeing some more momentum there. and that is likely not slowing down.

Let's transition over to Hasset, see what he's saying about the shutdown, see if we can get some updates on that and then we'll get into uh some headlines around Nvidia

has been very active throughout this process. But it's also his position that this is a thing that the Senate needs to work out. Uh a lot of our friends in the Senate have said that it was just bad optics for Democrats to open the government before the no kings rally and that now there's a shot that this week things will come together and very quickly the moderate Democrats will move forward and get us an open government at which point we could negotiate whatever policies they want to negotiate with regular order. Now, I was very pleased to see that my friend Senator Shaheen from New Hampshire, a a very, you know, soundminded Democrat, came out and supported opening the government on Friday. So, it means that there sort of cracks in the Schumer armor. I think the Schumer shutdown is likely to end sometime this week. But, I can tell you that if it doesn't, if it doesn't, if the story that we've been basically hearing from moderates that look, we just can't do it in front of the no Kings rally. If that ends up not being true, then I think that the White House is going to have to look very closely along with Russ vote at, you know, stronger measures that we could take to bring him to the table.

>> So, there would be negotiations about what to do. We're we're running out of time before November 1st. There would be negotiations about what to do with with the uh the pandemic u super subsidies for Obamacare. Well, well, that again is an issue for the Senate that you know we the Democrats passed that law. They uh it was in an emergency for COVID and they ended it now because it was such an expensive law and so it's the Democrats policy. It's the Democrats shut down and it's the Schuber shutdown and really the Senate needs to figure it out. >> But it it affects you know real people and people in red states and I mean we're we're subsidizing healthcare for a lot of but like it or not that's just the position we're in. So there are certain people that either wouldn't have health care or where the the premiums would go up so much. And not not to say that it's uh you know not Obamacare's fault because there's a lot of flaws, but do you see something where there would be some fixes put in to get Republicans to agree to do that? >> Again, that's up to the Senate to negotiate. But if you look at the expiring subsidies, you know, the vast majority of people, certainly lowincome people, aren't affected at all. It's just that uh the the policy was expanded to people up to four times the poverty level and so you get people who have you know much much higher incomes than were intended to be predicted by

>> All right. So Hassid giving us a little bit of an update right there on the idea of this government shutdown ending. I mean so far the market hasn't really cared that much about it. So, if it ends up lasting as long as Kalshi thinks it can last, which is, you know, up until November 16th, they're giving it a uh a 30% chance right there, then, you know, that would be pretty aggressive. But if it is resolved this week, then I do think that would be more bullish than not. The question is, will we end up seeing that happen?

And and the other thing that's really important about this, Khi now has 40 days on the forecast. The other thing that's interesting about this is, you know, we still don't have a lot of government data. Now, we will be getting CPI. That's going to be happening on Friday. So, we'll at least be getting some gauge of inflation. And that's going to be happening a couple of days before the FOMC meeting on October 29th where more likely than not, we're getting another 25 basis point cut. But having that CPI definitely would be important. Having some job data would really be important. And, you know, hopefully if we can get the shutdown avoided or at least resolved, we're going to start to get a lot more of that data. But, we're going to see throughout the week if that ends up happening as well.

real quick as well. I said this on the uh Market Future show last night, but just want to announce it here. Uh Cactus Jack has officially joined AK Media Fulltime. So uh a lot of you guys probably already know him every day in the chat. He's he's basically like our personal Bloomberg terminal. And um yeah, he's joining full-time. So this is our first extension of AK Media. Going to have someone who helps me basically get all the news that I need every single day, pre-show, post show, during the show. and uh you know he's already been doing it for like a year so I just asked do you do you want to do it full-time if you're already gonna be here and he said yeah let's do it. So there he is. Whenever you see a post from Cactus Jack you can assume it's more likely true than not. I mean I'm sure there's some things he'll possibly get wrong maybe because the source is wrong. Uh but more likely than not he will be up to date and accurate on pretty much every piece of breaking news. So if you see an earnings update or a price target upgrade you can trust that you're getting it from a reliable source. All right, cool. So, that's what we got from Mr. Cactus.

Let's go to BMR. I mean, Tom Lee, this guy continues to buy the damn dip. He bought 203,000 Ethereum over the weekend. Tom Lee, the crypto market saw one of its largest deleveraging events last week, and this put downward pressure on ETH prices. Open interest for ETH sits at the same level as seen on June 30th of this year. Given the expected super cycle for Ethereum, this price dislocation represents an attractive riskreward. We acquired 200,000 Ethereum tokens over the past week, pushing our ETH holdings to 3.24 million, 2.7% of the total supply. We are now more than halfway towards our initial pursuit of the alchemy of 5%.

Most people don't even think he's going to stop at 5%. B Riley with a $90 upgrade on BMR thinks they're going to get to 7.2% by the end of 2026. And it makes sense because why would they stop, right? like they're probably not going to stop just because the price of Ethereum goes up, especially if they're able to continue diluting at a premium to their net asset value.

So, look, I mean, if you're on the Ethereum bandwagon, if you believe in it, I did do a deep dive on BMR. This was one of the stocks that was on the Substack. BMR and Duolingo were the two stocks that we uh that we did a deep dive on. And you know, if you read through the deep dive, it's it's it's trying to get to a better understanding of the mechanisms and mechanics of how a digital asset treasury should operate, but also if Ethereum is an asset worth operating on. And if you believe in those two things, then you got to be ready for the volatility of the ride, but the ride might end up rewarding people long term.

Bit mine right there, 5.52% got all the way to 47 last week as Ethereum took a hit. So, I mean, a lot of this really is dependent on Ethereum. And if Ethereum can stay above 4,000 where it is right now, we should hopefully be able to stay in that uh in that $50 range. So that's what you have on Bitine and that's what you have on Ethereum. Now again, last week Devon Ryan initiated a price target on $50 on SSB, which is one of the competitors for Bitine. And you know, I I don't know that much about ESB, but I do know that if Wall Street analysts are starting to get bullish on ETH treasuries, that's a good thing. And that's definitely not something that we should ignite.

By the way, FG Nexus, which is another Ethereum treasury, they lost their premium to NAV. They were now trading below Nav, same as ESB. Bitmine is one of the only digital asset treasuries outside of Micro Strategy that actually trades at a premium above NAV. And um these guys initiated a $200 million buyback. So, Bitmine already has a billion dollar buyback if they trade below NAV. The whole point is to not get below NAV, but these guys initiated a buyback for if they do get below NAV, which they are below below NAV.

Again, it's just I wouldn't buy anything outside of the winners in the space. And I think the winners are BMR and probably Micro Strategy for Bitcoin. I think a lot of the other treasuries have a lot of different issues and raising capital is one of those issues. You need to be able to effectively do it and I think BMR is doing this at scale. ETHZilla, I don't know what's going on with them. They were supposed to have some special meeting a week ago and I don't even know what the outcome of that meeting was, but oh, they did a reverse split. Oh, that's probably why they had they had to do it. 1680. This thing was like $4, right? Yeah, they probably split. Again, you got to pick the winners in the space and I think BMR, especially with Tom Lee, is going to be one of those winners. Bit mine right there, 5251 as we're green in the pre-markets.

All right, let's talk about Nvidia. So, Nvidia, actually, let's do Amazon before we do Nvidia. So, what happened to Amazon in the pre-markets? Well, AWS got shut down, and it got shut down bad. the northeast sector of the country that runs on AWS uh basically fell apart. And I was sleeping when this happened. So, I woke up at like 5 a.m. and I saw the updates, but I wasn't like trading on the overnight markets on Robin Hood, so I didn't see like that much of the uh dismay that people had, but a lot of people were upset about it. Uh and they were upset about Coinbase, they were upset about Snapchat. So, it wasn't a specific issue to any of these companies. It was just AWS had a massive uh draw down.

Now, we don't know exactly why it fell. Was it a bug? Was it a crowd start strike moment? Was it one of these things where it's like, you know, some engineer forgot to push an update? Like it lit literally, this has happened before where engineers, you know, forgot to push updates or do certain things and then the entire system collapses. So, we don't know the exact details of what happened other than it ended up going down and the memes are, you know, absolutely hilarious of of what ended up happening.

I think the takeaway from this, it's now been resolved over the past like five hours, so it's not that big of a deal anymore. I think the takeaway from this is very simple, and I hate to be the guy to say it, but it is true. And I I was the same person who said this when CrowdStrike fell, and I bought a little bit. I should have bought a lot more during that time. Bad publicity on a company that literally runs the internet. At least half the internet shut off for a couple of hours when AWS went down. It just shows you how much the world relies on Amazon. It's just that simple.

So, uh, you know, the stock was red a little bit, now it's green. I know the stock has not really moved that much but at the end of the day if every major company on the planet or you know a significant portion of every major company is using AWS. I mean if the thing shuts down and the whole world shuts down because of whatever reason bug code you know what whatever maintenance it just goes to show how much the world needs AWS and needs Amazon and if they can show any acceleration in growth then I think the street will get back on board to the story and the stocking gets momentum.

Amazon has quadrupled their operating income since 2021. 4x operating income, stocks up 12%. There is obviously a narrative issue with this stock and that's okay because that's when you want to buy, but narratives change and if narratives change quickly, then the stock prices can also change very quickly as well. Eric says this happens to them like every year and there are other options. Yeah, that is fair. Look, the bare case on this, I don't want to say it's it's fully bullish just because they went down and you saw you saw how much the world relied on them. the bare cases, people might leave and they might say, you know what, we can't, you know, whatever Robin's like, dude, we cannot rely on AWS going down. We're gonna have to go to GCP or something like that.

Um, so that is the bare case. It's just, you know, if this has happened every year and they continue to quadruple operating income, it probably means that at the end of the day, the other alternatives just aren't good enough to get people to switch in a meaningful way. And that's what keeps Amazon at the top. 21408. Again, AWS acceleration, that's what you got to look like. I and again I don't want to say like I'm pounding the table on Amazon because we might have a crappy Q3 where AWS doesn't accelerate, margins go down a little bit because the tariffs and this stock is at 195. Like that is very possible. I would not be surprised if that happened quite frankly if we get under 200. That would be the opportunity to really buy and set up a position for 2026. Uh but I also think it could easily rerate to 230 240 by the end of the year if a narrative goes in the opposite direction. So I think that's the base case we have to be thinking about when it comes to when it comes to Amazon.

Okay, Nvidia, what do we got going on? So, uh, Jensen and TSM made a pretty big announcement over the weekend and it was that they officially unveiled the first wafer for their Blackwell chip that was created in the United States.

>> This last week was a historic week. Uh, we manufactured the most advanced AI chips in the world in the most advanced fab in the world here in America for the first time. Uh all of this started with President Trump wanting to reindustrialize the United States. His terrorist was a pressing uh agent in making this possible at this at the at the speed that we're doing. And now at uh uh just in shortly after less than a year, we're now manufacturing the most advanced chips for AI here in the United States. This is just the beginning of it. uh with the partnership of the supply chain in Taiwan, TSMC is incredible partner in a strategic partner for the United States and in bringing manufacturing of the most in most critical sector of technology here to to United States. Uh this is just the starting point where after that with Foxcon, Amcor, Spill, uh Wistron, so many of our other partners, we're going to bring the entire supply chain of building AI infrastructure back here in the United States. By the end of uh the next uh three or four years, we'll probably manufacture, we're on on target to manufacture about half a trillion dollars of AI supercomputing technology to be installed here in the United States.

Pretty cool stuff from Jensen. And obviously, you know, Trump loves hearing that the re-industrialization of semiconductors is beginning to happen in the United States. We did get the AMCOR mention, which is very nice. Not that many packaging companies that work as closely as AMC does with TSM and the fab that TSM have has in Arizona. 3215, right? They're up 2.75% for AMC. I mean, look, this is really bullish Nvidia and this is bullish the entire semiconductor ecosystem. Jensen goes on in that interview to basically say we are not in a bubble. We are in the beginning of the early cycles of capex and capex spend. If you believe Jensen, then you believe that this really is the beginning. If you don't believe it, then you think that all this capex spend is going to go for nothing.

Essentially, these companies are spending hundreds of billions of dollars for no reason. If that's not the case, then a lot of that manufacturing comes back to the United States, creates a lot of jobs, and ultimately continues the capex cycle um at the rate that it's going at right now. Now JP Morgan came out with a report this morning and they said Nvidia CEOs Jensen Huang's prediction of AI capex growing from 600 billion to 3.4 trillion by 2030 is feasible. The bank expects the tech sector to fund it through operating cash flow, private equity, venture capital inflows, even with projected 1.6 trillion annual funding gap. Private markets could contribute to about 500 billion per year by 2030.

And it looks like the private markets are ready to invest in this. I mean there was a company that raised a 133 million seed round in the AI space. They're building another foundation model particularly around spatial uh reasoning is kind of how they call it. So there's essentially an LLM for a specific sector of the market which a lot of these companies are going after and the harder ones kind of Vlad is doing this with mathematical super intelligence do require more capital.

Uh so you're going to have that going on. You've obviously got the private markets funding OpenAI and Anthropic. Anthropic raising their revenue targets to 26 billion. They're doing five billion right now for next year. I mean like 26 billion in 2026 is pretty damn incredible. But the fact that the private markets are ready to be funded in this way is leading JP Morgan to believe that it's going to be possible. They estimate roughly 40% of new debt, 430 billion would come from bank loans and 60% from bond issuance. This is kind of what Oracle did with their corporate bonds a couple of weeks ago. Even with this increase, the tech industry's net debt to cash flow ratio would rise only from.7 to 1.2, still below the global average.

Now JP Morgan did say you should be cautioned for energy infrastructure not financing as the next major bottleneck as the AI data center growth drives massive new power demand aka the energy stocks are likely going to catch a bid even if the financing of it is going to take some time for it to play out. So that is why you continue to see the energy names get the momentum that they get. Oaklo right here in the pre-markets up another 3% and a lot of those rare earth stocks are also pretty green as they were green in the overnight markets after going through you know relatively ugly red.

but you know that's bullish for Ian that's bullish for clean spark again if you have a thesis on these Bitcoin miners turn data centers or the nebuses or their core reeves of the world I mean your thesis is pretty strong the question is what valuation do you want to get into these guys and what is your timeline but the and you know not all of these guys are going to turn out to be winners but if there is way more demand than supply then you're going going to need a lot of residual demand going to some of the winners that are not as big of a winner as like a corewave, but they're still going to get some part of that market and that ultimately could help their stock price as well.

Speaking of Nebius, uh there were some rumors this morning, Nebius, right? They're up 3%. Data center uh in Israel and as a result uh you got this right here. The idea is, well, Roman, the co-founder, posted this picture, and it looks like the company is preparing to announce the launch of one of its new data centers, most likely in the UK or Israel. There'll be 4,000 GB200s to begin the partnership uh in one of those new data centers. Again, just more and more expansion. Nebas, if they can get another one of those Microsoft deals, would be very bullish. Question is if that will end up playing out.

SMCI, that one's going green in the pre-markets as well. Rumors of an XAI contract. Look at that. Wow. Up 5.4%. 4%. Uh so looks like that deal is or that rumor is coming out right now. SMCI talk of contract order from XAI circulating as per Bloomberg.

Okay. I mean look, this is inevitable. Jason and Chris have been saying this for a while, which is that if we're going to sell more GPUs, you're going to need more server racks to be able to handle those GPUs. and Dell increasing their financial guidance double on the top and the bottom line last week was I think a signal for SMCI to eventually do the same. And so, you know, SMCI is not the the best stock in the world in terms of its margins for every incremental dollar it gets, but it likely will have to grow. Like the pure volume of the amount of server racks and liquid cooling technology they're going to be serving to these GPUs across the entire world has to grow. I mean, you it's them, Dell, and HP.

So, and and we kind of saw this with Micron. You know, Micron was deemed as a commodity, was stuck at 100 for a while, and then demand went up, growth went up, they started showing results, and Micron completely rerated. So, if that does happen with SMCI, which largely hasn't moved that much since liberation day, that would be exciting.

Meta right there, 723, Amazon 213, Reddit, that's up 3.3% back above 300 or 200. And then Palenteer 180 as well in the pre-markets, which is what we've got. All right, let's talk about some macro stats. So, first of all, last week we had some regional financial issues. Uh, Western Alliance and Zions reported a couple of faulty loans and that kind of sent some shocks to the system. Uh, here's a chart right here showing that regional banks are not breaking. If you look at credit issues tied to private credit funds, they're isolated while net interest income, credit losses, and capital look the strongest in years.

And this is one of the charts that shows lending to non-d depository financials, as you can see right there, doesn't look like it's it's in a bad situation compared to historical averages that we've had with non-depository financials. The other thing that's really important about this is that the uh credit provision losses in Truist and a couple other banks that reported on Friday, they were great. They were way better than expected. Like way better. Like we're talking about 100 to $200 million less than what expected. It was very similar to to what JP Morgan and City Bank said. So I think the regional crisis again still continues to be isolated to a couple of banks that were that produced a couple of faulty loans. It is not endemic of the broader structure of private credit and as long as that's the case I think that is not going to be the the bare case that breaks this bull market.

I mean there's I think plenty of other things that could break this bull market versus the regional banks but it is something to care about because you know private credit is definitely something that could make things bad. It's just there's not enough evidence outside of, you know, one company or two companies showing that there are some issues. So, as a result of that, I don't think we should have too many problems with the regional banks.

KRE, this thing was down 10% last week. It's up about 1%, recovered 3% on Friday. This one might be the opportunity if we're not going to have too many issues in the private private credit ecosystem. SoFi, also very bullish for SoFi. So, I decided I will be buying some SoFi before earnings. I don't own any SoFi right now. Um, I'm thinking 500 shares.

And the simple logic is, well, I want to have fun if the stock goes up and I'll share in the misery if the stock goes down. I mean, no, in all seriousness, look, I think Tanner is right that there's going to be a record member quarter. I think those members are probably going to translate into net income that's higher than expected from the street. I think not has a chance to put up a 35% growth quarter. Street's expecting 29%. If they get to 40%, I think that'd be very bullish. And then finally, the banks are crushing it across the board outside of two regional banks. SoFi crushed it. I mean, SoFi will crush it because JP Morgan, Black Rockck, Morgan Stanley, etc. crushed it. SoFi is going to crush it on a smaller scale than those guys, but their rate of growth is going to be faster. It's gonna be better. And their underwriting is phenomenal. Not to mention cryptos coming back.

I don't see the bare case on SoFi. I really don't like at this moment. I I don't see. And then you have rate cuts coming up. So, I think it's going to be a 500 share earnings yolo, but I I don't think we get that ugly of an earnings. And if the stock drops, then the stock drops for whatever reason. It would probably be a buy the dip if the earnings are good. But I think you're probably going to get another triple B and we shouldn't have that many issues.

So, we're going to see what happens with SoFi, but that earnings will be happening over the next week. The bare case is that it rose 70% in three months, that is fair. If you want to make the bare case about valuation and price action, then 100%. But when a stock usually does that, that that that means that their next earnings has to be perfect. I'm not saying so far it's going to have a perfect earnings, but it doesn't feel like it's going to have the worst earnings in the world. And hopefully that can lead to some more momentum.

Also, we were above 30 for a little bit, right? So, you know, maybe if it can normalize above that 30 going into rate cuts. Also, their earnings are a day before the Fed makes their decision. So, I mean, you get a good quarter and then you get rate cuts a day later. It could it could set up for something explosive, dude. It depends on how well not I mean the way this thing really gets up to 3540 is if AWS of fintech their Galileo product starts getting some more growth more than 10 12%. I don't think that's going to be this quarter but I think notto has some options to really give us a good quarter and if it does coinciding with the rate cuts I don't think that would be too bearish.

Uh speaking of banks we do have one update on a bank that I did not know about. A lot of the French people in the audience might know about this company and even if you're not French, you know, if you if you're in Europe, uh BNP Parabos, which I'm probably saying the name wrong, had its worst day since March 2023. Was down 10% today. Why? A federal jury found the bank complicit in aiding genocide in Sudan by violating US sanctions, triggering the threat of large contingent liabilities and escalating legal risk.

Of course, I said it wrong. Of course. Oh, I said it right. Parabis. Parabus. You don't pronounce the S. Oh, it's probably true. You You don't pronounce the It's French, right? But, uh, so, you know, you do have some global banks that are not having the best time in the world. But again, you know, the reason I'm bringing this up is like, is this a structural reason the banking sector isn't an issue? No. This is one bank that ended up financing something that they were not supposed to be financing. And as a result, you got a lot of customers. This is the biggest bank in France, by the way. You got a lot of customers saying, "Hey, like we don't want our money associated with this." And now you might have some issues in terms of people taking out their assets and leaving somewhere else. Is it something that collapses the banking system? No. Did Zions and Western Alliance last week in the United States collap the banking system, losing a billion dollars in market cap? No.

So again, you don't have these massive China structural issues. You don't have these massive banking issues. You've got rate cuts coming up and then we're hopefully going to have a pretty damn good earnings going into this week with Tesla and Netflix and a variety of other companies. the the bullcase still looks pretty strong as choppy as it's been and as long as that bullcase has room to continue then I don't think it's going to be that aggressive going into going into the end of the year and I think quite frankly it's actually making this year uh or this cycle for outperformance way easier because now stocks aren't at all-time highs and you kind of need stocks to not be at all-time highs to you know get another leg up. So, we're going to see how that plays out as we get into the end the end of this earning cycle.

All right, here we go. Thank you everybody for being here. It is Monday, October 20th. We got 11 days left of the month. 9:30 a.m. The stock market is once again open.

All right, wake your ass up. Let's get into it. S&P 500 opens up.5% on the day. Green 66791. Remember on Friday it was up and down within like almost 50 uh 50 different green red opens across the board. There's a massive green candle right there. 668 on the S&P 500. We'll see if that holds any momentum or if that continues.

Um but last week on Friday it went up. It went down. It went up and went down and then it completely got rearranged. So we're going to see if that holds on. Oh, Legend. You guys just saw my watch list disappear. You guys just saw it disappear. Let's go to Weeble. Maybe AWS. Wait, Weeble's having problems for you guys now as well.

Oh, let me see. Let me see. Those AWS issues might be back, but let's go to Weeble. Okay, S&P still moving 668. So, there you go. We are green. That's up half% of the day. SoFi 2733. That's up about 3%. SoFi chart not loading. SoFi chart not loading. Robin Hood chart not loading. Oh, they're all down. They're all down.

Damn, bro. AWS, I thought the problems were resolved. They should have been fixed like an hour ago. I mean, they were fixed an hour. We were literally just looking at the chart like 30 seconds ago. Okay, I think Robin's back. I think Robin's back or Weeble's done. Weeble's done. Robin Hood should be back. Okay, S&P that's up.5%. AMD, that's up 2%. SoFi, that's up three. Google, that's up half percent. Grab that's up 2%. Bitcoin and Ethereum back over 4,000 and 110,000.

TLT, that's up a little bit. Circle, that's up 2.5. Uh, Micro Strategy, that's up 2.97. YouTube just crashed for you a minute ago. Wow. Yeah, you're getting a bunch of different issues throughout the day. Roblox, that's up 1%. Crowd Strike, that's up 1.3. Rocket Lab, okay, there was something we didn't talk about in the pre-markets, but the secretary of um the secretary of transportation came on CNBC in the pre-markets and uh he said that SpaceX is behind on the contract that was initially awarded to them to get back to the moon. And so, he is opening up the contract for any space company to bid, including Blue Origin. And I think that's why Rocket Lab is up 3% right here because if they bid to potentially get back to the moon, I mean that would be a massive contract for a company of their scale.

And you know, Sean Duffy, he didn't hesitate to say that SpaceX is being slow and it was kind of a public call out for other companies to compete for this. So that could be a reason why Rocklab's getting some momentum. ESTs as well. This was 84 in the pre-markets. 8649 that is also green. A lot of you guys are having some issues across the brokerages. very weird, but at least Legend is not messing up too badly right now. Intel, that's at 37.93. Disney's up a little bit. Square is up a little bit. Duolingo just went red. Door Dash, that's up about 1%.

Redcap, that's up 3.2. How about I the Bitcoin miners? It's barely searching for me, dude. It's not even pulling up a ticker. Yahoo's down, too. Does everything run on AWS? Goodness gracious. 61.49 on Iran. That's up 1.3. Regionals are, if they're ever going to load, probably green, but they're not going to load. Uh, let me go back to Weeble and see if we can load something up. Weeble is not loading anything either. Damn, bro. AWS controls the internet. This is wild. This is wild.

S&P though, look at that. 668, folks. If we get back to 670, all-time highs were 673 before this whole China disaster started in regards to the back and forth of rhetorical, I guess, insults towards one another, which have started to deescalate. That happened two weeks ago. I mean, 673 is not that far away. If we can get back above 670, that would be very nice to see.

S&P, are we at 670? Wow. 670. S&P, she's back even with all the hiccups today. 670 on the S&P. Three more bucks and we are back to all-time highs. Uh, and the good thing is we're not really seeing stupid stocks run. And again, I I don't mean stupid in an offensive way. I just mean a little offensive, but not just saying like some of these names that probably didn't deserve to go up 7,000% in a year. Oaklo is down 5% while the S&P is up 1%. I think that's healthy.

I think that is healthy. What's another name of a random stock? SMR. Nanuclear. Yeah, Nanuclear down 4%. SMR down 79%. What are what are some other names that ran up for no reason that we don't want to see them going up? I mean, all all the quantum names are down.

Dude, this is actually really bullish because if freaking Quantum started going back to the moon at the same time as the S&P, you would say, "Okay, everyone's just running in to to buy everything and it's it's a clown market again." But seeing those names stay down and people buy quality like the S&P, like Nvidia, like Google, that's bullish.

All right, folks. Uh, I think that is it for the day. Hopefully during the market close, it'll get a lot better. I think story of the day is Apple all-time highs, AMD all-time highs, Nvidia trying to break out back to the 185 and then the S&P recovering while the random frothy stocks are not moving at the same velocity as high quality companies and the China stuff is deescalating pretty significantly from last night. I think that's bullish. I think it's really freaking bullish knowing that in nine days we get a rate cut.

So you got Tesla and Netflix this week. You got a rate cut next week. You got Trump and Xi next week, potentially Trump and Kim Jong-un. Um, and then you have the broader AI capex tailwind that doesn't seem to be slowing down based on all the earnings we've seen. And hopefully in the next coming days, we're going to see those earnings continue along with the market recovering without a lot of the frothy names going up with it. I mean, that to me is a pretty decent story going into earnings. Pretty decent story going to earnings.

Three updates. I said this last night. I'll just say uh reiterate them here and then we'll be done for the day. Uh Cactus Jack again, he has officially joined the stream uh full-time or joined AK Media full-time. So, if you guys see him in the chat, he will be helping me with the show topics, prepping all this stuff and uh you know, he's been in the chat for the past year. So, really happy to have him full-time and it'll hopefully just make me a lot more efficient at getting breaking news and hopefully help everyone else who needs a lot of that breaking news to get through the day. So, we got Cactus on the team.

Number two, I said this last night, the meetups are coming back in 2026. I had a really good meeting with a management agency on uh Saturday and uh we have not officially signed a deal, but essentially I'm looking for an organization that can really help me with planning, security, logistics, infrastructure, all the stuff that it takes to travel across the world and throw these events. And uh I think I I think I found the people I'm looking for. So I will let you guys know updates on if that gets done probably end of November. But I have a pretty good feeling about it. And uh the person who set this up is someone that I met in Miami who has 40 years of event planning experiences. He owns multiple nightclubs. So it's it's a really good mix in terms of the type of people I'm looking for. And the meetup should be coming back next year. And I think it'll be really exciting because the meetups have been pretty successful in 2025 and I think we can take them to the next level next year.

And then um yeah, the final update is just the Substack. I really appreciate people subscribing to it. Really means a lot to me. I am falling in love with writing. I never thought I would say that, but for some reason I I really enjoy the process of writing. It's just like it's kind of a new challenge for me. I think I think I've been talking for so many years that I was looking for a new way to express myself and I guess the written word, which I genuinely never thought I would become a writer. It's it it's fascinated me. Absolutely fascinated me.

And so, yeah, we have about 12,000 people that subscribed on Substack really means a lot. Dualingo BMR for the first two deep dives. I think there's a lot more content that I'll be able to put on this platform outside of just deep diving into companies. Like when Robin Hood has their earnings and I want to write up all my thoughts on those earnings, that'll be a deep dive into Robin Hood's earnings. So, I think there's a lot of content that hopefully people will be able to enjoy. And uh for those that really like reading research, this is uh this is the new one we're going to be doing. So, you guys can subscribe there. It is free. No payw wall. There won't never be a payw wall. And uh we'll keep going from there.

I already started working on the next two deep dives. I already started working on it. Literally Saturday I was like, "All right, time to work on the next one." Like, it's actually I don't know, bro. I'm getting into my writer era. Maybe I become an author, bro. Maybe I write a book. Maybe I need to write a book on how to be funny. Maybe that would, you know, maybe that's maybe that's where this takes me. Who knows? We're gonna see. We're gonna see what happens. But, um, no, I really do like writing and we're going to keep doing it over the coming years and see it see it go from there.

Romance, that's what I need to do. I need to write a book on love. That's what I need to do. That's that's that's what we got to do. All right, that's it for me. Thank you everybody. I'll see you back on the market close. Hopefully this stuff is fixed with uh Robin Hood and Weeble and AWS Australian PM meeting Trump in about 30 minutes. We'll get some updates on how that goes and we'll see if we can close above 670 on the S&P 500 again. Thank you everybody. Appreciate it. I'll see you guys on the market close. Bye everybody. Have a good one.