加拿大对墨西哥的新定位

Host: Laura Macdonald is a professor in the Department of Political Science and the Institute of Political Economy at Carleton University. Solange Marquez Espinosa is a geopolitical analyst and instructor at the University of Toronto. Great to have you both on the show. How are you both doing?

Laura Macdonald: Doing well. Thanks.

Solange Marquez Espinosa: Very well. Thank you.

Host: All right, Solange, I want to start with you. In mid-February, Minister Le Blanc led a trade mission to Mexico. Help us understand, how significant was that in Canada? Mexico? Trade relations.

Solange Marquez Espinosa: It is very, very important. It was the largest bilateral mission in decades. We had over 370 delegates, more than 240 organizations. So it was huge. It was focused. And that is also a very, very interesting shift. It was focused on sectors like manufacturing but also agriculture, agrotech, clean energy and technology. So I think it was very important for Mexico, Canada relationship because it shifted the relation from mining. That is usually what we see more often to other sectors that are important, that are important for both countries, and where we can find some new opportunities.

Host: Laura, what signal did this trade mission send to Mexico?

Laura Macdonald: I think it was sending a signal that perhaps finally, Canada is taking Mexico seriously, both as a trade partner but also as an important ally, a strategic partner in North America. I think there’s a sense that Canada has historically taken Mexico for granted or some, you know, there were very negative signals being sent by a couple of Canadian Premier Doug Ford and Danielle Smith in Alberta, saying that we would just throw Mexico on the bus, under the bus if we could get a better deal with the US without them. So this is sending a message that finally, Canada needs to recognizes its need to take Mexico seriously as a really important partner in North America.

墨西哥打击卡特尔的行动

Host: Solange, two days after the mission ended, President Sheinbaum ordered an operation against one of Mexico's most powerful cartels, killing its leader, El Mencho. What do you make of that move?

Solange Marquez Espinosa: Well, I think first of all, it is something that is shifting from the usual we have seen in Mexico this hoax and no bullets approach that we had during President Lopez Obrador and after with President Sheinbaum. She has been shifting from this since the beginning of her tenure. But what I see it is clearly an indication of the relationship also with the United States. So this this violence started very let me say, frame it like this. It was very mediatic. It was huge. But it is important to understand that there are two different violence here. The first one and that that day is the violence demonstration of the cartel. They were trying to to show some force because it was against the state, because the state had their leader, and after that their leader was killed. But the the second phase of this is a different kind of violence, the violence that we are seeing after two weeks. It is a violence that it is much more like between the cartels. It is showing the fragmented, maybe the fragmentation of the cartel because they are fighting for the internal control of the cartel. So it is different and it is affects differently the relationship between Mexico and Canada.

Host: Laura, I'll get your take. What do you make of the violence just two days after that trade mission?

Laura Macdonald: Well, I think it was unconnected, but I think it will be somewhat of a concern, a continuing concern for Canadian businesses, Canadian tourists. When they think about Mexico, they might be thinking more about this violence than the very successful trade mission, which is unfortunate. I agree with Solange that there are all kinds of reasons for concern about the decision to go in that way and, as they say, decapitate or take out the the leader of a very powerful cartel. Because in the past, what we've seen is that when that's happened, it has led to an escalation of violence as rival factions fight for control. We don't know what is happening here. I think the Mexican government had a lot of strong intelligence on their side about that. Might be it might be a good time to do this. And Shane has shown her willingness to go in a more forceful way against the cartels. I think moving on, what we'd like to see is more efforts to crack down on political corruption in Mexico. There are long standing ties between the cartels and political leaders, especially at the local and state levels. And Shane Balm is showing more willingness to crack down on that than her predecessor. So that's a positive sign. But it is a worrying situation, and it could lead to years of violence.

加拿大如何深化与墨西哥的合作

Host: Solange, I'll get you to follow up on sort of what Laura had said. You know, the existence of cartels is not new to Canadian governments or to the private businesses, but what are the implications of Canada encouraging more trade when there are potentially significant risks in Mexico?

Solange Marquez Espinosa: Well, it is not new. This this violence, unfortunately, of course, but it is not new. There is a of course, it affects Canadian businesses in Mexico especially. We have been seeing the reality in, in, in, in the mining sector affecting them with extortion. In one specific case, we saw what happened with some of the people working on on a Canadian mining. However, I think this is this is not noted. As Laura said, it is what happened, even though it was two days after the mission was in Mexico. I think it is a mother to understand that the violence is there, but it is not against specific targets, foreign specific targets. So yeah, Mexico needs to work much more into their internal security strategy. I think that in that way, Canada can help a lot. And part of what is announced and what they are working with the Canadian government is also related with security, which is very, very good. It is something very, very positive in the relationship. So what I think for the Canadian businesses or investments, it is it is secure to invest in Mexico. There are places that are of course much more on risk because they are cartel territories. But there are other places that are like of course, Mexico and Mexican cities. This kind of violence that the one that we saw are because of a specific event. And I am not quite sure that the Mexican government is going to risk to do something similar in the near term.

Host: Laura, I want to get your take. What can what can Canada do?

Laura Macdonald: I think one thing would be to shift our focus away from mining. We are the major foreign investor in Mexico, in the mining sector, which is probably the most problematic area because these mines are operating in the most dangerous parts of the country. In many cases, some of them are in much safer areas, and there's not a problem. But when they move into these highly conflictual territories, there's a lot of concern about the implications for the safety of investors and the workers in the, in the property and and the surrounding community. And beyond that, concerns around indigenous rights and environmental impacts. So I was also very encouraged that a lot of the focus of this mission was on other sectors green tech, high tech sectors. I think in terms of security cooperation, we should also be looking more at tracing the financial flows of the cartels, both to the United States and to Canada. There have been cases where Canadian banks have found cases where employees were accepting money from cartel operations as part of laundering, money laundering operations. And I think a huge amount more could be done in that respect. We can also provide more support to human rights organizations operating in Mexico. And I would add, labour rights organizations. We were providing some significant funding to Mexican independent labour groups who are combating widespread corruption among their own union officials, and that funding has now ended. So we want to be seen as a country that is operating in a way that benefits Mexican workers as well as shareholders in Canadian companies and is and tries to avoid the common tendency to just go to Mexico because labour prices are cheap. There's so much more opportunity in Mexico as a market for Canadian goods, and also as a site with highly qualified personnel.

墨西哥总统的平衡术：应对美国压力与加拿大关系

Host: All right, I want to get to the US folded into our conversation here. Solange, president Sheinbaum is under pressure from the US to address cartels, some of which have been deemed terrorist organizations by the US and by Canada. She's also trying to address political corruption. So there's a long list of things here. And I'm curious, how does the president of Mexico walk that line with Trump, as she's also trying to manage this relationship here with Canada?

Solange Marquez Espinosa: Well, it has been complicated for Mexico. Of course, the pressure coming from the United States, particularly with the President Trump, has been hard. I think the strategy, I'm not quite sure yet that it is a strategy, but how Mexico has been responding is, most of the time, pragmatically agreeing on almost everything that the Donald Trump and Washington have been asking. For example, in the case of security and the border and migration, Mexico deployed 10,000 National Guard to the to the border because Washington asked for that. We have been accepting US deportees from third countries, not Mexicans, because we are accepting that migration is a big issue and we don't want more new tariffs. We prepare border cities. We have extraditing cartel leaders since since this this year started, we extradited 29 cartel leaders in February. And now what we saw with El Mencho is mostly related with with that. So Mexico has been trying to appease Donald Trump in order to avoid the tariffs. How this play into the Mexico-Canada relationship? Well, we are exactly in the same complicated position. We are part of a trilateral agreement. We want to maintain that agreement, but we need to find a way to relate with our neighbour, our common neighbour, in an intelligent and in a wise way in order to avoid that. But in order to continue our trade relationship, the only thing that I, I see will allow us to do that is to continue our our trilateral agreement, but strengthening our bilateral relationship.

Host: All right. I'll get Laura to add on that when it comes to President Sheinbaum, sort of walking this this fine line between Donald Trump and and Canada's relation here. How does she do it?

Laura Macdonald: Well, I think she has enormous. Enormous intelligent capacity to handle the relationship with Donald Trump. I think she's had to fight all her life as a woman leader to make a way for herself in the party and in a sexist society. And so she's developed all these incredible skills of communication and steadiness, calmness that we can only admire. And and so people have kind of seen her as a Trump whisperer, and he hasn't lashed out at her as he has against Canadian leaders. On the other hand, I think we need to recognize that Mexico is in a vulnerable position. It is a poor country and a weaker economy compared to Canada, and so they have many strengths compared to Canada. The United States is going to have to continue to invest in Mexico. They can't forego entirely the cheap labour force that Mexico has historically provided, whereas Canada is seen as kind of expendable. So we need to find a way to work together strategically to Recognize the long term game of the importance of working together and not allowing Donald Trump to divide and conquer us, which is easy to do, easy for him to do. That's his tendency. The US has said they'd prefer bilateral deals because they're stronger in that context, one on one, rather than in any trilateral situation. So I think the two leaders, Carney and Sheinbaum, really do Recognize this now in a way they haven't in the past. And they need to keep their eye on the the long game as we move into the USMCA negotiations.

USMCA审查与未来关系展望

Host: Well, speaking of that, as we know, the review process for the Canada-U.S. Mexico agreement must be completed by July 1st. So Lange, in case that review doesn't go as hoped or planned, what should be taken into consideration so that Canada and Mexico can forge a new relationship?

Solange Marquez Espinosa: Well, I think we are in the correct path. Following Canada's strategy of diversifying markets. I think Mexico entering into that into that strategy not only because of USMCA, but also because Canada needs to diversify their markets. So I think what happened in July, let's consider that even though the United States do not want to continue with the trade, the trade will continue for ten more years with annual revisions. So there is not an instant end of the USMCA. We will continue with the trilateral relation, of course, with all the challenges, that kind of scenario. But but I think it isn't going to be not that complicated. As if an abrupt end will will be in the case of Mexico and Canada, I think there are different strategies that we can try to work together. Specifically. I see, of course, the security. I think it is a very interesting and a very important. There are a lot of possibilities in the relationship on security issues, but also there are others that will allow the ideologically, Mexico and Canada's governments can work together. That is environmental issues, trade, growth, growth and trying to to increase the relationship on energy because that this this government in Mexico, usually ideologically was close to that kind of relation. So the mission was a success in that, in that matter, because Mexico show that they can be open to to talk about energy sector, which is very good for the relationship with Canada and for clean sector too. There are opportunities to do business in Mexico that were closed before this. So I think there are many opportunities that we can try and and I think it is it is a it is a there are a lot of opportunities for both countries considering, of course, the challenges that the security in Mexico endures.

Host: And that is unfortunately where we're going to have to leave it. Solange. Laura, I really appreciate your insights on this one. I know a lot of us have July 1st marked on our calendars, so we will definitely be following the story. Thank you very much.

Solange Marquez Espinosa: Thank you. Thank you so much. Thank you Laura.

Laura Macdonald: Great to talk to you.