航运保赔协会:全球贸易的底层“安全网”
在现代航运体系中,保险不仅是限制因素,更是某些商业行为的推动者(Enablers)。如果无法获得保险,全球贸易将彻底停滞。航运保险的核心由两个互补的体系构成:船体与机器险(Hull & Machinery: 针对船舶本身损害的商业保险)和 保赔保险(P&I Insurance: Protection and Indemnity,即保护与补偿保险)。
保赔协会(P&I Club)与传统的商业保险公司有着本质区别:它是一个非营利性的、成员制的互助协会(Mutual Association)。它不承保船东自身的损失,而是承保船东对第三方承担的责任(Liabilities)。这包括因疏忽导致的人员伤亡赔偿、碰撞造成的他人船只损害、以及最关键的漏油污染与环境损害。正如汽车必须购买交强险才能上路,保赔保险是船舶合法航行的必要条件,它为社会提供了财务保障,确保在发生灾难性事故时,受害者能够获得公正的补偿。
这种互助模式起源于 19 世纪的伦敦,当时商业保险公司无法为波动性极大的海事责任定价。于是,船东们联合起来建立资金池,共同分摊风险。其核心逻辑非常朴素:如果一年的索赔低于预支,资金可以退回或抵扣次年保费;如果发生大额赔付,成员则按船舶吨位比例进行追加。这种“按成本定价”的模式,避开了商业保险公司的利润加成,成为了航运业最坚实的后盾。
Original English Source
I think there's a tendency to think of them as sort of limiting factors in the world... but I also think of them as enablers of certain behaviors. People do a lot of things that they wouldn't otherwise do, were they not able to get insurance on it. What are clubs? Clubs, in our context of the P&I club, which means protection and indemnity, is a collective. It's a non-profit, accessible mutual association. It's not a commercial insurer. And it basically, historically is a club that brought together ship owners in the industry that were trying to fill a gap. So they came from a need for society. The clubs never pay own damages. We will not pay damage that occurred to the vessel in an accident or if they have economic loss... what P&I clubs do is they step in and they protect the owner and defend the claims, but they ultimately pay whatever is the fair compensation for passengers that perhaps get hurt, claims from crew, liabilities related to collision... oil pollution and environmental damage. It's the safety net. And it is the only way that a ship can trade. For example, let's look at what you do with your car. You're not allowed on the road if you don't have liability insurance. You don't have to have own damages insurance, but you do need to have liability because we need to know that all the cars on the road have financial security behind them.
历史博弈与集体的力量:再保险的全球杠杆
美国保赔协会(American P&I Club)的诞生极具地缘政治色彩。1917 年以前,美国船东普遍在伦敦的俱乐部投保。然而一战期间,英国颁布了《禁止与敌对国家贸易法》,禁止为与特定国家有贸易往来的美国船只提供保险。为了打破这种外交掣肘,美国立法机构和航运业在 1917 年情人节当天紧急成立了自己的保赔协会。时至今日,它依然是美国境内唯一的此类组织,虽然其成员早已实现全球化,不再局限于美国本土。
目前,全球 12 家顶级保赔协会组成了国际保赔协会集团(International Group of P&I Clubs: 简称 IG,承保全球 90% 以上的远洋吨位)。这个组织最大的优势在于其庞大的再保险采购能力(Reinsurance purchasing power)。这 12 家互为竞争对手的俱乐部通过集体采购,购买了全球规模最大的再保险保单。这种机制允许它们为单次事故提供高达 30 亿美元的赔付限额,而成本却远低于船东单独购买。这种规模效应使得即便面对像超级油轮漏油这样的极端事件,单体俱乐部也不会因财务崩溃而违约。
Original English Source
The American club actually was born much later... In 1916, the Americans were not in World War One yet. Right? The UK was. So the UK at that time passed what was called the UK Trading with the Enemy Act... which prohibited a lot of American operators from continuing to have their insurance with the UK clubs. johnson and higgins at that time came together with ship owners and legislators and realized that they were going to have to create something in the United States. On February 14th, 1917, the American club was born. Collectively now there's 12 international group clubs known as the International Group of P&I Clubs. Collectively, we insure 90% of oceangoing tonnage. Selfishly, I'll say the most important is the reinsurance purchasing power that the group clubs have. Collectively, the 12 clubs come together every year and they purchase policies. I think it's the largest reinsurance policy in the world. We provide cover about for about 8 billion per incident, but we buy reinsurance collectively with the other clubs up to 3 billion. Together we realize the best thing for an individual ship owner is to have this group purchasing power and allows us to buy high levels of reinsurance at pretty inexpensive cost.
风险评估的精密刻度:从集装箱灾难到人的因素
在制定保费费率时,吨位(Tonnage)只是计算的乘数。真正的风险溢价取决于航线、货种和管理水平。例如,集装箱船(Container ships: 运送标准化货柜的船舶)的灾难风险评估非常复杂。一旦发生全损事故,成千上万个集装箱可能漂浮在海面上,成为航行障碍,且其中许多被视为危险废物(Hazardous waste),清理和处置过程极其昂贵且耗时。
然而,精算模型之外,人为错误(Human error)才是最大的变量。保赔协会在“损失预防”方面投入了巨大精力,因为约 80% 的索赔都与疲劳驾驶、在驾驶室违规使用手机等行为有关。2022 年“长程轮”(Ever Forward)在切萨皮克湾搁浅的案例中,调查发现领航员正在使用手机,导致这艘载满家具的巨轮延误数月。虽然 P&I 俱乐部最终会承担因疏忽导致的货损赔偿,但其重点正转向前置化的安全培训和技术审计。
Original English Source
It's not that there's like a fixed point. Tonnage is just a measuring tool. If you have a small barge that doesn't have any crew versus a large cruise ship... you would price differently. For example, our experience has shown us that container ships have certain types of risks. If there's a casualty on a container ship and it's a total loss... those individual containers will start to pop up and float to all different places. Part of the liability includes cleaning those all up and those types of containers are considered hazardous waste. There's a special disposal process that can be quite expensive. It can also cause danger to navigation. A lot of it too, is human error. You can't account for crew member not sleeping or being or falling asleep at the wheel basically and causing an accident. Many years ago, my furniture got stuck on a container ship called the Ever Forward that ran aground in the Chesapeake Bay. And I think an investigation found that the pilot had been using his phone... We have safety stuff. We have posters. There's one that says: "Personal cell phones - keep them shut off."
战争状态下的费率重构:并非撤保,而是“重置”
当战争或武装冲突(如红海危机或霍尔木兹海峡动荡)爆发时,媒体常出现“战争险被撤销”的惊悚标题,但这往往是误读。事实上,这是一种费率重写机制。
战争险(War risk insurance)因其极大的地缘政治不确定性,在精算上是不可持续的,因此 P&I 标准保单通常将其排除在外。但在和平时期,保赔协会会通过再保险提供极低廉的超额战争险覆盖。一旦冲突爆发,再保险人会发出一份“取消通知”(Notice of Cancellation),其真实意图是在 72 小时后根据新局势重新定价。保费可能从每年的几万美元飙升至单次通过海峡数万美元。
值得注意的是,对于被动卷入冲突的船只和主动选择进入风险区域的船只,保险公司的态度截然不同。对于那些不幸被困在冲突区内的船只,保费往往维持在极低水平(约船值的 0.5%),而对于主动发起贸易的船只,费率可能高达船值的 3%-10%。在这种极端环境下,保险并不是真正的限制器,船长的自主决策权和对船员安全的保护才是最高准则。即便有昂贵的保费作为支撑,如果船长认为航行将危及生命,他也拥有拒绝执行指令的绝对权力。
Original English Source
Most other types of insurance is actuarially stable... You can't really do that for war. During the year in peacetime, it's very cheap. These are the headlines we saw: saying that war risk insurance has been pulled right at the start of a war, which was very confusing... Complete misconception. It's really a cancellation of the rate, not of the cover. Every war policy has a notice of cancellation clause saying if a war were to break out... we didn't price for that. We cancel your policy, meaning we cancel the rate you paid, give you three day notice. You're still covered if something happens. But now after the three days lapses, you have to buy your cover back at a higher rate based on if you're trading there. The ships that were trapped on the inside were given different rates than ships that were looking to go in and out. The ships that were trapped, the rates were significantly lower (0.5%) than it was for those ships looking to actually transit regular trades (3 to 10% of the hull value). And the operators and our members made it very clear that the safety of their crew was much more important than everything else. Ultimately the decision to do that type of course is for the master of the vessel to decide. You can't direct him to do something that he believes will put the crew and the ship at risk. That is rule number one.