彭博商业周刊日报：引言与银行财报概览

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[音乐] 彭博音频工作室为您呈现播客、广播和新闻。

This is Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy.

这里是《彭博商业周刊日报》，为您带来杂志的报道，帮助全球领导者通过洞察塑造当今复杂经济的人物、公司和趋势保持领先。

Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens.

此外，还有实时发生的全球商业、金融和科技新闻。

This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenbec on Bloomberg Radio.

这是彭博广播电台的《彭博商业周刊日报》播客，由卡罗尔·马塞尔和蒂姆·斯滕贝克主持。

One group that has done really well today as a whole, we're talking about big banks or banks overall: the KBW bank index (Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Bank Index: 衡量美国银行业表现的指数) is up 2.3%, with 22 of the 24 names higher in today's session.

今天整体表现非常好的一个板块是大型银行或整个银行业：KBW银行指数（Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Bank Index: 衡量美国银行业表现的指数）上涨了2.3%，24只成分股中有22只在今天的交易中上涨。

Two big ones were lower.

有两家大型银行下跌。

Two of the big ones are lower; two of the biggest names on the entire index are lower.

两家大型银行下跌了；整个指数中最大的两家公司下跌了。

Well, this is what's interesting because JP Morgan, Goldman, Wells, Citi, all reporting JP Morgan and Goldman selling off, right?

这很有趣，因为摩根大通、高盛、富国银行、花旗银行都公布了财报，摩根大通和高盛都在抛售，对吧？

And those are the two names you're talking about, and Wells and Citi, Matt, are in.

你说的就是那两家公司，而富国银行和花旗银行，马特，表现不错。

Matt: I mean, and you get headlines like JP Morgan beats expectations on every level.

马特：我的意思是，你会看到像“摩根大通在各个层面都超出预期”这样的头条新闻。

Goldman Sachs knocks the cover off the ball.

高盛表现出色。

Analysts can't believe how well they did, and yet the stocks sell off.

分析师们不敢相信他们做得有多好，然而股价却下跌了。

But remember, something like JP Morgan has had quite a run this year.

但请记住，像摩根大通这样的公司今年已经经历了一轮相当大的上涨。

So, you know, expectations and reality perhaps.

所以，你知道，这也许是预期与现实的差距。

Let's see what our experts have to say.

让我们听听我们的专家怎么说。

Bloomberg News chief Wall Street correspondent Shinat Rajan's here in studio along with Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst for Global Investment Banks and Asset Managers, Allison Williams.

彭博新闻社首席华尔街记者施纳特·拉詹和彭博情报全球投资银行及资产管理高级分析师艾莉森·威廉姆斯都在演播室。

As I said, both in studio.

正如我所说，两人都在演播室。

All right, guys. Let's start with JP Morgan because I feel like that's the bank that we want to always hear from.

好的，各位。我们从摩根大通开始，因为我觉得那是我们一直想听到的银行。

Allison, let me start with you.

艾莉森，我先从你开始。

What do we need to know about the numbers in JP Morgan's business?

我们对摩根大通的业务数据需要了解什么？

Because as Matt says, sometimes the headlines look darn good.

因为正如马特所说，有时候头条新闻看起来非常棒。

Allison Williams: And the quarter was darn good.

艾莉森·威廉姆斯：这个季度确实非常出色。

It's just that I think there are some bullish investors out there that wanted more, and if you did, you know, so on today, they're underperforming, but if you looked at year-to-date, if you look at their valuation, if you look at their year-to-returns, I'm sorry, you look at their profitability, all very, very good, executing well.

只是我认为有些看涨的投资者想要更多，如果你是这样，那么今天他们的表现不佳，但如果你看年初至今的数据，看他们的估值，看他们的年度回报，抱歉，看他们的盈利能力，都非常非常好，执行得很出色。

I think that, you know, maybe some people just wanted some more there.

我认为，你知道，也许有些人只是希望有更多的亮点。

Goldman Sachs also had a strong quarter.

高盛的季度表现也很强劲。

They did miss on equities trading, so these numbers are hard to predict, but I think, you know, most people, including myself, you know, if you had seen sort of that upside, would give you sort of further confidence in the momentum going into the next quarter.

他们在股票交易方面确实有所不足，所以这些数字很难预测，但我认为，你知道，大多数人，包括我自己，如果你看到了这种上行趋势，会给你对下个季度的势头带来进一步的信心。

But the M&A advisory business (Mergers & Acquisitions advisory business: 为公司并购提供战略和财务建议的服务), huge outperformance there.

但是并购咨询业务（Mergers & Acquisitions advisory business: 为公司并购提供战略和财务建议的服务）表现非常出色。

We think they probably outperformed most people in the quarter.

我们认为他们在这个季度可能超越了大多数同行。

They're the lead in that revenue.

他们在这项收入中处于领先地位。

They announced this AI program.

他们宣布了这项人工智能计划。

There's details.

有详细信息。

You know, we're going to have to wait till January for details, but that signals that efficiency is going to get better.

你知道，我们得等到一月份才能看到细节，但这表明效率将会提高。

You know, contrast two companies that are really performing very well to two companies that are, I think, have a lot of runway ahead of them, and that's Wells Fargo and Citigroup.

你知道，将两家表现非常好的公司与我认为仍有很大发展空间的两家公司进行对比，那就是富国银行和花旗集团。

Can I just ask before we get to Shri, because I've already asked him like 10 times today?

在我问施里之前，我能先问一下吗？因为我今天已经问了他大概10次了。

Why do the analysts consistently underestimate what these banks are doing?

为什么分析师总是低估这些银行的表现？

And it can't just be to get on the good side of management, right?

这不可能仅仅是为了讨好管理层，对吧？

When I see this morning before any earnings came out, I saw stories about which bank was going to beat estimates.

今天早上在任何财报出来之前，我看到了关于哪家银行将超出预期的报道。

So when I see "bank expected to top estimates," I wonder why analysts don't add more to the estimates.

所以当我看到“银行预计将超出预期”时，我纳闷为什么分析师不把预期调高一些。

What's this game all about?

这到底是怎么回事？

Allison Williams: Well, first of all, trading and when it's capital markets revenue, that really is the source of the upside.

艾莉森·威廉姆斯：嗯，首先，交易和资本市场收入确实是增长的来源。

That is very tough, and banks are not going to guide you.

这非常困难，银行不会给你指导。

You know, they don't really have an incentive to guide you because, by the way, like the last couple of days of the quarter could be horrible, or you don't know what's going to happen.

你知道，他们没有真正的动力去指导你，因为顺便说一句，比如季度最后几天可能会很糟糕，或者你不知道会发生什么。

And so, I think banks are going to tend to guide conservatively.

所以，我认为银行会倾向于保守地给出指引。

Analysts are going to tend to be conservative, right?

分析师也会倾向于保守，对吧？

Because that just is not something that people bake into the run rate.

因为这并不是人们会纳入到常规运行率中的东西。

So, as I said, you know, we're positive about the momentum in trading, the asset levels, etc.

所以，正如我所说，我们对交易势头、资产水平等持乐观态度。

But I think if you're forming estimates, you are going to tend to be conservative, and that's why you can get upside, especially if the strength comes at the end of the quarter.

但我认为如果你在制定估算，你会倾向于保守，这就是为什么你能获得上行空间，特别是如果强劲表现出现在季度末。

It's just hard for the estimates to catch up.

估算很难及时跟上。

Yeah, totally get it.

是的，完全明白。

杰米·戴蒙的“蟑螂”警告与信贷市场风险

All right. So, we care about JP Morgan's results.

好的。所以，我们关心摩根大通的业绩。

We also obsess over everything that Jamie Dimon has to say.

我们也着迷于杰米·戴蒙所说的一切。

He never disappoints with something that is highly quotable.

他从不让人失望，总能说出一些极具引用价值的话。

In this case, it was when he was talking about a cockroach.

这次，他是在谈论一只蟑螂。

Check it out.

听听看。

Jamie Dimon: Like you should assume that if ever something happens, we need to scour all processes, all procedures, all underwriting, all everything.

杰米·戴蒙：比如，你应该假设，如果发生任何事情，我们需要彻底检查所有的流程、所有的程序、所有的承保、所有的一切。

And, you know, we think we're okay in other stuff, but my antenna goes up when things like that happen.

而且，你知道，我们认为在其他方面我们没问题，但当这种事情发生时，我的警觉性就会提高。

And I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there are probably more, you know, and so we should, everyone should be forewarned on this one.

我可能不该这么说，但当你看到一只蟑螂时，可能还有更多，你知道，所以我们应该，每个人都应该对此有所警惕。

All right, that of course was Jamie Dimon earlier today on JPM's earnings call.

好的，那当然是杰米·戴蒙今天早些时候在摩根大通的财报电话会议上说的。

Shinat Rajan: Come on in on this because you're reporting on the quarter, and you know, most importantly, what Jamie Dimon has to say about the macro.

施纳特·拉詹：请就此发表看法，因为你正在报道本季度的情况，而且你知道，最重要的是杰米·戴蒙对宏观经济有什么看法。

So, I again, Jamie Dimon has been running the biggest US bank, which has a bigger market cap today than its three closest rivals combined.

所以，我再说一遍，杰米·戴蒙一直在管理美国最大的银行，该银行今天的市值超过了其三个最接近的竞争对手的总和。

He's been doing that for nearly 20 years, and he didn't get there and he didn't stay there just on the back of sitting on his laurels, right?

他做这件事快20年了，他能达到并保持这个位置，绝不是靠着安于现状，对吧？

He is paid to look around the corners, and he is right to point out that the underlying numbers might be great.

他的职责是未雨绸缪，他指出潜在数据可能很好是正确的。

They might be marching toward another record revenue year, but when you see some of these problems, you initially try and dismiss some of them as idiosyncratic, but if enough of them start popping up, that becomes a concern.

他们可能正朝着另一个创纪录的营收年度迈进，但当你看到其中一些问题时，你最初可能会试图将其中一些问题视为特殊情况而置之不理，但如果足够多的问题开始出现，那就会成为一个隐忧。

So that's why when Dimon says, "My antenna goes up when things like that happen," we pay attention, especially because in the last few days, we've been seeing some action in certain corners of the credit market where it does appear that there is some fear seeping into the markets.

所以这就是为什么当戴蒙说“当这种事情发生时，我的警觉性就会提高”时，我们会特别关注，尤其是在过去几天，我们看到信贷市场的某些角落出现了一些动向，市场似乎确实渗透着一些恐惧。

Dimon specifically flicked at the publicly traded BDC's (Business Development Companies: 一种投资公司，主要投资于中小型私营企业) that hold a lot of these private credit investments.

戴蒙特别提到了那些持有大量私募信贷投资的公开交易的商业发展公司（Business Development Companies: 一种投资公司，主要投资于中小型私营企业）。

And if you look at the discount to the net asset value (Net Asset Value, NAV: 衡量基金或公司资产减去负债后的价值) that they're going at, it makes you worry about what's happening with some of the other non-traded vehicles.

如果你看看它们相对于资产净值（Net Asset Value, NAV: 衡量基金或公司资产减去负债后的价值）的折价，你会担心其他非交易工具的情况。

Will there be mass redemptions?

会不会出现大规模赎回？

And will there be domino effects off of that?

这会不会引发多米诺骨牌效应？

And Diamond also points out that he feels like they're feeling very good about everything there.

戴蒙还指出，他觉得他们对那里的一切都感觉非常好。

If you look at their numbers, you will not see any cause for stress, dismay, or concern.

如果你查看他们的数据，你不会看到任何导致压力、沮丧或担忧的原因。

But Diamond is right in saying eventually the cycle turns.

但戴蒙说周期最终会转变是正确的。

And when it does, he thinks that I suspect when there's a downturn, his words, you will see higher than normal downturn type of credit losses in certain categories.

当这种情况发生时，他认为，我怀疑当经济下行时，用他的话说，某些类别的信贷损失将高于正常的下行时期。

And that's an important one to keep in mind because what he's saying is your recovery rates might not be as great as you imagined, and that will impact the firms, and that'll impact the investors in those firms.

这是一个需要牢记的重要因素，因为他想表达的是，你的回收率可能不如你想象的那么高，这将影响公司，也将影响这些公司的投资者。

富国银行与花旗集团的转型之路

I want to ask about Wells Fargo.

我想问一下富国银行。

I'm so thankful that Bloomberg Radio has such a great program.

我非常感谢彭博广播电台有这么棒的节目。

In the mornings, Nathan Hager and Karen Moscow were talking to you, Allison, before I even got to work yet, and I get here pretty early, and you were saying this is really going to be the news of the day, and it has been the outperformer of the day because...

早上，在我还没上班的时候，内森·海格和凯伦·莫斯科就已经在和你，艾莉森，谈话了，我来得挺早的，你当时说这真的会是当天的新闻，而它也确实是当天的表现最佳者，因为……

Allison Williams: Can I just say, finally?

艾莉森·威廉姆斯：我能说一句，终于吗？

Well, because long...

嗯，因为长期……

So what's the story with Wells Fargo?

那么富国银行有什么新消息？

They raised their return on tangible equity.

他们提高了有形股本回报率。

Allison Williams: Yep. So the key metric for banks, return on tangible common equity (Return on Tangible Common Equity, ROTCE: 衡量银行核心盈利能力的指标) valuations, you know, price to book is how a lot of investors value these banks.

艾莉森·威廉姆斯：是的。所以银行的关键指标，有形普通股股本回报率（Return on Tangible Common Equity, ROTCE: 衡量银行核心盈利能力的指标）估值，你知道，市净率是许多投资者评估这些银行的方式。

It's based on the return on capital.

它基于资本回报率。

And, you know, Charlie Scharf had said years ago, "We're going to put 15% out there as a target; we'll revisit it at some point."

而且，你知道，查理·沙夫几年前说过：“我们将把15%作为目标，我们会在某个时候重新审视它。”

They're running at 15% year-to-date.

他们今年迄今的运行率是15%。

They upped that target to 17 to 18%.

他们将目标提高到17%到18%。

The asset cap (Asset Cap: 监管机构对银行资产规模设定的限制) is lifted.

资产上限（Asset Cap: 监管机构对银行资产规模设定的限制）被解除了。

They showed a lot of progress that they've made, but they also showed some opportunity.

他们展示了许多已取得的进展，但也展示了一些机会。

And here's what I think is interesting.

这就是我认为有趣的地方。

So, one of the biggest areas of opportunity is the consumer unit.

所以，最大的机会领域之一是消费业务部门。

When we had Lori Beer from JP Morgan, the CIO (Chief Information Officer, CIO: 负责管理企业信息技术和系统的高级管理人员) of JP Morgan, talk about where she sees big opportunity, she actually talked about this at JP Morgan's investor day.

当我们请到摩根大通的洛里·比尔，也就是摩根大通的首席信息官（Chief Information Officer, CIO: 负责管理企业信息技术和系统的高级管理人员），谈论她看到巨大机会的地方时，她实际上在摩根大通的投资者日活动上谈到了这一点。

Also, the consumer unit, also a lot of what she talked about in terms of how technology was going to aid the bank, was in the productivity in the consumer unit.

此外，消费业务部门，她谈到很多关于技术如何帮助银行的内容，都体现在消费业务部门的生产力方面。

So we're hearing that from Wells Fargo.

所以我们从富国银行那里听到了这一点。

So that really gives me confidence that this is a number that they can shoot to.

所以这真的让我有信心，这是一个他们可以努力达到的数字。

Citigroup, by the way, I think, you know, they're also kind of showing the path, right?

顺便说一句，花旗集团，我认为，你知道，他们也正在展示这条道路，对吧？

So, Citigroup talking about the fact that they are sort of two-thirds the way there with their transformation.

所以，花旗集团谈到他们已经完成了转型的三分之二。

And we have Banamex (Banamex: 花旗集团在墨西哥的零售银行品牌，目前正进行重组和出售) coming.

我们有花旗环球金融（Banamex: 花旗集团在墨西哥的零售银行品牌，目前正进行重组和出售）即将到来。

It's pushed out a little bit, but I think showing you the path that, you know, could that be group again, talk about an even longer time, but could Jane Fraser finally be the one to get it done?

它被推迟了一点，但我认为这向你展示了一条道路，你知道，这是否能再次成为一个集团，谈论更长的时间，但简·弗雷泽最终能否完成这项任务？

And I will point out like with Wells Fargo now up what, 8.2% for the day.

我还要指出，富国银行今天上涨了8.2%。

It's their best day since election night, since Trump came back to power.

这是他们自选举之夜，自特朗普重新掌权以来最好的一天。

This could be Wells Fargo's best day since then.

这可能是富国银行自那时以来最好的一天。

So that is the power of putting a target out there.

这就是设定目标的力量。

And I point that out again only because in a couple of weeks, you will have Bank of America with their investor day, their first investor day in 15 years.

我再次指出这一点，只是因为几周后，美国银行将举行投资者日活动，这是他们15年来的首次投资者日。

It has also been the worst-performing big bank stock this year, up only what, 14%, 14 and change.

它也是今年表现最差的大型银行股，仅上涨了14%多一点。

It is important for Bank of America to approach that investor day with a mindset of providing targets, aspirational targets for the market, instead of wanting to go out there.

美国银行在投资者日上应抱持提供目标、为市场设定宏伟目标的理念，而不是仅仅想出去。

We're trying to explain to investors and analysts what it is that they do because I think investors will tell you they have a good understanding.

我们试图向投资者和分析师解释他们在做什么，因为我认为投资者会告诉你他们已经很了解了。

What they want is better targets, and what they want is them achieving those targets, otherwise the stock will continue to languish.

他们想要的是更好的目标，他们想要的是他们实现这些目标，否则股价将继续低迷。

All right, I do want to mention a headline crossing.

好的，我想提一下一个正在发布的新闻。

We are continuing to monitor President Trump there at the White House.

我们继续关注白宫的特朗普总统。

He is talking also about Russia and President Putin, saying President Putin does not want to end the war.

他还在谈论俄罗斯和普京总统，称普京总统不想结束战争。

And then going on to say that the Russian economy is going to collapse.

然后继续说俄罗斯经济将会崩溃。

So that is certainly another one of the big geopolitical events and actions that we've been keeping, and something that the president has been trying to bring an end to and talked about that on the campaign trail.

所以这无疑是我们一直在关注的另一个重大地缘政治事件和行动，也是总统一直试图结束并在竞选活动中谈论的事情。

But again, President Putin doesn't want to end the war.

但再次强调，普京总统不想结束战争。

That is the view from President Trump at the White House.

这是特朗普总统在白宫的观点。

I know you had one last question you wanted to...

我知道你还有最后一个问题想问...

Yeah, I wanted to ask Allison about the best way to value these companies.

是的，我想问艾莉森如何最好地评估这些公司。

I was talking with Shri about this on Bloomberg TV earlier, and David George from Baird also was saying, "Look, JP Morgan can be a fantastic company, and it is."

我早些时候在彭博电视上和施里谈论过这个问题，贝尔德的戴维·乔治也说：“看，摩根大通可以是一家很棒的公司，而且它确实是。”

"But the stock is just too expensive, which is why he doesn't have a buy rating on those shares."

“但股价太贵了，所以他没有给予这些股票买入评级。”

And then Shere and I were looking through the price to book.

然后施里和我正在查看市净率。

What is the best way?

最好的方式是什么？

How do the best bank investors look at valuations that makes the most sense for banks?

最好的银行投资者如何看待对银行最有意义的估值？

Because I think it's a little different than other equities.

因为我认为这与其他股票有点不同。

Allison Williams: It is different because if you think about banks, right, versus other kinds of companies, they use their balance sheet to generate profits.

艾莉森·威廉姆斯：确实不同，因为如果你考虑银行，对吧，与其它类型的公司相比，它们利用资产负债表来创造利润。

And so that's why return on tangible common equity is a key metric, right?

所以这就是为什么有形普通股股本回报率是一个关键指标，对吧？

Because the more profitability that you can generate using your balance sheet, the more you're willing to pay.

因为你利用资产负债表产生的盈利能力越强，你愿意支付的就越多。

So that's a little bit different than PE.

所以这与市盈率有点不同。

You all notice that price to book is really favored in downturns.

你们都注意到，在经济下行时期，市净率确实更受青睐。

It's a place where people look for, you know, in terms of, you know, one times price a book is sort of if you if you liquidate the bank, what can I get for this versus the ongoing returns?

这是一个人们会关注的地方，你知道，就市净率而言，一倍市净率有点像如果你清算银行，我能得到什么，而不是持续的回报。

And that's why you have companies like Citigroup trading below tangible book or below book, which obviously they've made a lot of progress since then, but for a long time, banks were trading at like 20% book value.

这就是为什么像花旗集团这样的公司，其交易价格低于有形账面价值或账面价值，显然自那时以来它们取得了很大进展，但在很长一段时间里，银行的交易价格约为账面价值的20%。

Well, and the European banks, right, because they're not earning their cost of capital.

嗯，还有欧洲银行，对吧，因为它们没有赚到它们的资本成本。

So, basically, you're eroding value over time.

所以，基本上，你是在随着时间侵蚀价值。

So, that's sort of the opposite.

所以，这有点相反。

And so, I think, you know, those are kind of like two different ways to think about it.

所以，我认为，你知道，这有点像是两种不同的思考方式。

By the way, JP Morgan management also talked about their not liking to buy shares back at this level.

顺便说一句，摩根大通管理层也谈到他们不喜欢在这个水平回购股票。

I heard that.

我听到了。

You know, they're pretty daring that they're willing to call that out.

你知道，他们相当大胆，敢于指出这一点。

But from an equity investor standpoint, that's not really helpful either.

但从股票投资者的角度来看，那也不是很有帮助。

Hey, 22nd Street.

嘿，22街。

What do we have?

我们有什么？

Bank of America and Morgan Stanley tomorrow.

明天有美国银行和摩根士丹利。

Just quickly, what you're watching out for.

就快速地说一下，你正在关注什么。

Allison Williams: We have Bank of America and Morgan Stanley tomorrow.

艾莉森·威廉姆斯：我们明天有美国银行和摩根士丹利。

Again, we have analyst expectations set out there.

再次，我们有分析师的预期摆在那里。

So, we're hoping they'll go and beat them.

所以，我们希望他们能超越这些预期。

But which brings us back full circle to Matt's original point, like I don't know what he wants analysts to do.

但这又回到了马特最初的观点，我不知道他希望分析师怎么做。

Should they apply a humility premium to when executives guide?

当高管给出指引时，他们是否应该应用一种谦逊溢价？

If I were if I were estimating someone's earnings, I would try and get it right.

如果我估算某人的收益，我会努力做到准确。

And if I got it if I was lowballing it for the last nine out of 10 quarters, I would just add 20%.

如果我过去十个季度中有九个季度都低估了，我就会直接加上20%。

You're doing it based off of how the executives are guiding you.

你是在根据高管给出的指引来做这件事。

What do you want?

你想要什么？

A gut check.

一种直觉判断。

Hey kids, take this outside.

嘿，孩子们，到外面去。

Okay. All right.

好的。没问题。

We're going to continue this conversation.

我们将继续这场对话。

We will here at Bloomberg as we continue the bank earnings throughout the rest of this week.

本周剩余时间，我们将继续在彭博社关注银行财报。

Stay with us.

请继续收听。

More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

稍后将有更多《彭博商业周刊日报》内容。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast.

您正在收听《彭博商业周刊日报》播客。

Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2:00 to 5:00 Eastern.

请在美东时间周日下午2点至5点收听我们的直播。

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App or watch us live on YouTube.

通过彭博商业应用在Apple CarPlay和Android Auto上收听，或在YouTube上观看我们的直播。

AMD与甲骨文的AI芯片交易及市场动态

All right, everybody. Yes, indeed.

好的，各位。是的，确实。

Bloomberg Businessweek Daily continuing on this Tuesday.

本周二，《彭博商业周刊日报》继续播出。

Carol Masser, Tim is off.

卡罗尔·马塞尔，蒂姆今天休息。

Isabelle Lee in the house, and one of the names that we've been keeping a watch on today is AMD at its highs today, up as much as almost 4%.

伊莎贝尔·李在演播室，我们今天一直关注的一只股票是AMD，它今天创下新高，涨幅一度接近4%。

I should say, finishing the day with a gain of about 8/10 of a percent.

我应该说，最终收盘上涨了约0.8%。

This after saying Oracle will deploy a large batch of its forthcoming M1450 chips next year.

此前，甲骨文公司表示将在明年部署大量即将推出的M1450芯片。

I hope I'm saying it right, but if not, I'm going to check in with Ian King who will set the record straight.

我希望我没有说错，但如果没有，我会向伊恩·金求证，他会纠正过来。

The news coming about one week after AMD inked a chip deal with OpenAI that triggered an explosive rally in AMD shares.

此消息发布大约一周前，AMD与OpenAI签署了一项芯片协议，引发了AMD股价的爆炸式上涨。

That stock on October 6 rallying almost 40% intraday that day.

那天，该股在10月6日盘中上涨了近40%。

AMD, by the way, up around 80% or so year to date.

顺便说一句，AMD今年迄今上涨了大约80%。

So, let's get the latest on his reporting and what AMD and Oracle are up to.

那么，让我们了解他最新的报道以及AMD和甲骨文的动向。

Bloomberg News US Semiconductor reporter Ian King with us from our San Francisco News Bureau.

彭博新闻社美国半导体记者伊恩·金通过旧金山新闻局与我们连线。

Ian, good to have you here with Isabelle and me.

伊恩，很高兴你和伊莎贝尔以及我在一起。

Tell us about this deal, what exactly it's all about.

给我们讲讲这项交易，它到底是怎么回事。

Ian King: Yeah, I mean, the first thing to point out is that these chips don't actually exist yet.

伊恩·金：是的，我的意思是，首先要指出的是这些芯片实际上还不存在。

This is a planned update of the product line.

这是产品线的计划更新。

MI450 is what they're called.

它们被称为MI450。

And these are going to be coming out sort of this time next year from AMD.

这些芯片将在明年这个时候由AMD推出。

And so what the way to look at this is it's an affirmation that from Oracle to AMD that, hey, you guys have got a big role to play in our data centers going forward, and this kind of adds on to that OpenAI agreement that you already spoken about.

所以看待这件事的方式是，这是甲骨文对AMD的肯定，即“嘿，你们在我们的数据中心未来将扮演重要角色”，这有点像是对你们已经提到过的OpenAI协议的补充。

So it's a future-based thing, but it's a very, it's a confirmation that AMD has a seat at the table here.

所以这是一种面向未来的事情，但它是一个非常，它证实了AMD在这里占有一席之地。

So what factors make Oracle an attractive partner for AMD, and how does this collaboration fit with a broader trend of cloud providers securing their own AI infrastructure?

那么，哪些因素使甲骨文成为AMD有吸引力的合作伙伴？这种合作又如何与云服务提供商确保自身AI基础设施的更广泛趋势相契合？

Ian King: Yeah, I mean, if you're going to ask me to unravel the spaghetti of connections between them all, I'm afraid you're talking to the wrong person.

伊恩·金：是的，我的意思是，如果你要我解开它们之间错综复杂的联系，恐怕你找错人了。

But, let's just, I mean, I think the best way to look at that is to say that Oracle is obviously being enormously aggressive, spending very heavily, trying to push itself, trying again to get a seat at the table here to be a cloud service provider along with the scale that perhaps rivals somebody like Amazon or Google.

但是，我的意思是，我认为看待这件事最好的方式是说，甲骨文显然非常激进，投入巨资，努力推动自身发展，再次尝试在这里获得一席之地，成为一个云服务提供商，其规模或许能与亚马逊或谷歌等公司匹敌。

It's clearly not there yet, but it sees a future in deploying this technology and is making a big bet to sort of get there.

它显然还没有达到那个水平，但它看到了部署这项技术的未来，并正在下大赌注以实现这一目标。

So naturally, if you're wanting to provide components into that market, having some exposure to Oracle being one of their key suppliers is a good move.

所以自然地，如果你想向那个市场提供组件，让甲骨文成为你的关键供应商之一，获得一些曝光度，这是一个不错的举动。

That's what I was wondering.

我当时就在想这个。

I always think about this, you know, who gets more out of this deal.

我总是在想，你知道，谁从这笔交易中获益更多。

Is it equal or is it...

是平等还是……

I love what you said about Oracle being very aggressive, and we've certainly seen Oracle be very aggressive, I feel like, over the last couple of months.

我很喜欢你说的甲骨文非常激进，而且我感觉，在过去的几个月里，我们确实看到了甲骨文非常激进。

But is this more a thing about AMD, more about Oracle, or both, Ian?

但是伊恩，这更多是关于AMD，更多是关于甲骨文，还是两者兼而有之？

Ian King: Yeah, I mean, the recent story has, I would say, had, you know, obviously there are these big buyers of the chips, and we have to see those chip orders made and those purchases go ahead and that turn into revenue, but really AMD, just for perspective, has less than 2% of the market for accelerators.

伊恩·金：是的，我的意思是，最近的故事，我想说，有，你知道，显然有这些芯片的大买家，我们必须看到这些芯片订单的完成和这些采购的进行，并转化为收入，但实际上AMD，从长远来看，在加速器市场中占有不到2%的份额。

Guess who has the rest?

猜猜其余的份额是谁的？

Nvidia, obviously.

显然是英伟达。

Right? So 2% is better than anybody else though.

对吧？所以2%总比没有好。

And is still several billion dollars, which is very good for AMD and has certainly buoyed its fortunes.

而且仍然是几十亿美元，这对AMD来说非常好，也确实提振了它的命运。

But is 2% really, you know, a sustainable market presence?

但是2%真的，你知道，是一个可持续的市场份额吗？

The answer is probably not.

答案可能是否定的。

AMD obviously has to evolve from there.

AMD显然必须在此基础上发展。

Has to get more and more confidence from these big buyers who, frankly, you know, you're not going to get fired for buying an Nvidia system right now if you're a purchase manager because everybody else is.

必须从这些大买家那里获得越来越多的信心，坦率地说，你知道，如果你现在是采购经理，购买英伟达系统是不会被解雇的，因为其他所有人都在这样做。

Why should you take a risk on AMD?

你为什么要冒险选择AMD？

So, it's very much up to AMD to sort of create a set of reasons for people to make those bets, and it looks like that's happening.

所以，很大程度上取决于AMD来创造一系列理由让人们下这些赌注，看起来这正在发生。

And we know that deployment is set to begin next year, expansion 2027 and beyond.

我们知道部署将于明年开始，扩展到2027年及以后。

Are we expecting any kind of challenges on the part of AMD to ensure maybe timely delivery or managing the supply chain?

我们是否预期AMD在确保及时交付或管理供应链方面会遇到任何挑战？

Ian King: Yeah, I mean, chips are difficult, right?

伊恩·金：是的，我的意思是，芯片很难制造，对吧？

You put billions of transistors on a very tiny piece of silicon, and something can and will go wrong.

你把数十亿个晶体管放在一小块硅片上，总会有可能出错。

But it has to be said in AMD's favor.

但必须为AMD说一句公道话。

They have said, "Hey, we'll have a product ready," and it's been ready on time.

他们曾说：“嘿，我们会准备好一款产品，”而它也按时准备好了。

"Then we'll have another one ready, and it'll be better."

“然后我们会准备好另一款，它会更好。”

And that's come on time.

而这也按时实现了。

So this isn't the first ever entree for them into this market.

所以这不是他们首次进入这个市场。

This is the, you know, third or fourth generation of their chips, and they have all got better.

这是他们芯片的第三或第四代，而且它们都变得更好了。

They all have been delivered on time, which is obviously gaining credibility for that company and that company's presence.

它们都按时交付了，这显然为该公司及其市场地位赢得了信誉。

So yes, a lot can go wrong and does go wrong for chips, but not recently for AMD.

所以是的，芯片制造中很多事情都可能出错，也确实会出错，但最近AMD没有出现这种情况。

If you want to look at things going wrong, unfortunately, that's been an Intel story, not an AMD story recently.

如果你想看看出了什么问题，不幸的是，最近那是英特尔的故事，而不是AMD的故事。

Hey, one of the things Ian, we were just talking with Kate and Matt over on the TV side, and when I mentioned AMD as kind of one of the gainers and stocks I was looking at and that Oracle will put 50,000 of the semiconductors in data center computers starting in the third quarter of 2026.

嘿，伊恩，我们刚才在电视那边和凯特和马特谈话时，我提到AMD是涨幅较大的股票之一，也是我关注的股票，而且甲骨文将在2026年第三季度开始在数据中心计算机中部署5万个半导体。

I'm like, is that even a lot?

我就想，这算多吗？

And so I'm looking at your story where you say in the second quarter AMD shipped about 100,000 AI processors.

所以我正在看你的报道，里面说第二季度AMD出货了大约10万颗AI处理器。

It seems like 50,000 is a lot.

5万看起来很多。

Is it though?

真的是这样吗？

Ian King: It really depends where we are at that particular point.

伊恩·金：这真的取决于我们到那时处于什么阶段。

In AMD's ideal world, it won't be a huge part of their shipments.

在AMD的理想世界里，这不会是他们出货量中很大的一部分。

And again, we don't know exactly how quickly those shipments will be made, but it is significant.

再次强调，我们不确切知道这些出货会多快完成，但这确实意义重大。

This is a major player, and that is not a small number.

这是一个主要参与者，而且这个数字不小。

It's not the kind of millions or hundreds of thousands that obviously Nvidia ships, but it is a significant amount.

它不像英伟达显然会出货数百万或数十万，但它是一个可观的数量。

How does this affect Nvidia, Nvidia's current dominance in AI processors?

这会如何影响英伟达，以及英伟达目前在AI处理器领域的主导地位？

I think Nvidia is still king.

我认为英伟达仍然是王者。

Are you expecting this to take into the market share or eat into the market share when it comes to AMD taking to scale production?

你是否预计当AMD开始规模化生产时，这会占据或侵蚀市场份额？

Ian King: Yeah, I mean, if you believe Nvidia and if you believe everybody else, we're on a rocket to the moon, right?

伊恩·金：是的，我的意思是，如果你相信英伟达，如果你相信其他人，我们正乘坐火箭飞向月球，对吧？

That everything is going up, the market is growing at an almost exponential rate, and there's room for everybody.

一切都在上涨，市场正以近乎指数级的速度增长，每个人都有空间。

So, growth for AMD, even rapid growth for AMD, doesn't necessarily take away from what Nvidia is achieving.

所以，AMD的增长，甚至是快速增长，不一定会削弱英伟达的成就。

But can we really believe that?

但我们真的能相信吗？

Has there ever been a market that's gone up like this forever?

有没有一个市场是这样永远上涨的？

And the answer is obviously not.

答案显然是没有。

And so at a certain point, can AMD establish a sustainable presence and create what is frankly at this point the only likely sort of viable competitor to Nvidia, and then perhaps move on from there and actually begin to take market share away from it in a meaningful way?

因此在某个时刻，AMD能否建立可持续的市场地位，并创造出目前看来唯一可能与英伟达竞争的有效对手，然后或许在此基础上继续发展，并真正开始以有意义的方式夺取其市场份额？

That is definitely in the TBD character right now.

这目前绝对是待定（TBD）的。

You know, 1.9% whatever market share they're at versus, you know, 98 plus market share percent.

你知道，他们现在市场份额是1.9%左右，而（英伟达）是98%以上的市场份额。

That's a long way to go before anybody needs to get worried.

在任何人需要担心之前，还有很长的路要走。

Yeah. It's a huge gap.

是的。这是一个巨大的差距。

Hey, one of the things I wanted to ask you, Ian, before we go, because I was thinking about yesterday that OpenAI Broadcom deal, and you know, it just sent shares of Broadcom rocketing.

嘿，伊恩，在我们离开之前，我想问你一件事，因为我昨天在想OpenAI和博通的交易，你知道，那笔交易让博通的股价飙升。

But I also looked at the SOCKS (PHLX Semiconductor Index, SOX: 衡量半导体行业股票表现的指数).

但我也看了看费城半导体指数（PHLX Semiconductor Index, SOX: 衡量半导体行业股票表现的指数）。

It made me look at, you know, every name I think was higher yesterday or almost every one.

它让我看到，我认为昨天几乎所有股票都上涨了。

Same thing today.

今天也一样。

A lot of names, we've seen actually today was a little bit of a different trade, but it just made me look at the SOCKS, which is up 32% year to date.

很多股票，我们看到今天实际上有点不同，但这让我关注到费城半导体指数，它今年迄今上涨了32%。

It's up about 75% from mid-April.

它从4月中旬以来上涨了大约75%。

I mean, does it make sense that every name is higher considering the spend and what is going on?

我的意思是，考虑到支出和目前的情况，所有股票都上涨合理吗？

Ian King: Um, yes and no.

伊恩·金：嗯，是也不是。

I mean, there's a lot goes into a data center.

我的意思是，数据中心需要很多东西。

There are a lot of analog chips, a lot of power converters, a lot of the basic components that are needed to support these, you know, hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of computers.

有很多模拟芯片、很多电源转换器，以及很多支持这些价值数十万美元的计算机所需的基本组件。

I'm talking about an individual computer.

我指的是一台单独的计算机。

So, yes and no.

所以，是也不是。

But ultimately, the real winners here are just a handful of companies, and we've been talking about them.

但最终，真正的赢家只有少数几家公司，我们一直在谈论它们。

Broadcom is in that conversation.

博通就在其中。

Nvidia is the absolute beneficiary of this already, and AMD is trying to get in there and is showing the best potential to actually get in there and be a presence.

英伟达已经是这项技术的绝对受益者，而AMD正试图进入这个领域，并展现出最大的潜力，以实际进入并占有一席之地。

Well, yeah, and certainly one we were talking about in a big way today.

嗯，是的，当然也是我们今天大谈特特的一个话题。

Ian, thank you so much.

伊恩，非常感谢。

Appreciate your reporting, finding some time once again for us.

感谢您的报道，再次为我们抽出时间。

Bloomberg News US Semiconductor reporter Ian King out there on the West Coast.

彭博新闻社美国半导体记者伊恩·金在西海岸。

Stay with us.

请继续收听。

More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

稍后将有更多《彭博商业周刊日报》内容。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast.

您正在收听《彭博商业周刊日报》播客。

Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2:00 to 5:00 Eastern.

请在美东时间周日下午2点至5点收听我们的直播。

中美贸易关系与全球经济重塑

Well, even so, the world is kind of moving on, and we're seeing the new contours of global commerce taking off amid these global tariffs.

即便如此，世界仍在向前发展，我们看到在全球关税的背景下，全球商业的新格局正在形成。

Let's see what Enda Curran has to say and what it means in terms of the global macro environment.

让我们听听恩达·柯伦怎么说，以及这对全球宏观环境意味着什么。

He is Bloomberg News global economy reporter.

他是彭博新闻社的全球经济记者。

He joins us from our Bloomberg News Washington DC bureau.

他从我们的彭博新闻社华盛顿特区办事处与我们连线。

Enda, good to have you here.

恩达，很高兴你在这里。

First off, we do see these Wall Street swings on what's coming out between US and China.

首先，我们确实看到了华尔街因中美之间发生的事情而波动。

Why is this still, just remind everybody, why is this still the most important global economic relationship in the world, or is it starting to kind of change a little bit?

为什么这仍然是，只是提醒大家，为什么这仍然是世界上最重要的全球经济关系，或者它是否正在发生一些变化？

Enda Curran: Well, they are the two world's biggest economies.

恩达·柯伦：嗯，它们是世界上最大的两个经济体。

They are of course completely interlocked with each other.

它们当然是完全相互关联的。

China is the world's biggest manufacturer, but of course, America is their biggest customer.

中国是世界上最大的制造商，但当然，美国是他们最大的客户。

It's the biggest consumer market in the world.

它是世界上最大的消费市场。

So, obviously, the trade tensions between them do spill over to everybody kind of caught in the middle of that in terms of supply chains.

所以，显然，它们之间的贸易紧张关系确实会波及到供应链中介的所有人。

And that's what we're kind of seeing some reaction or some response now to the rest of the world.

这就是我们现在看到世界其他地方的一些反应或回应。

And even if your starting point is that, yes, we'll always have to do business with America because the consumer is so powerful there, trading partners are kicking tires.

即使你的出发点是，是的，我们总是必须与美国做生意，因为那里的消费者如此强大，贸易伙伴们仍在观望。

And hang on a sec, who else can I do business with?

等等，我还能和谁做生意？

How else can I diversify my markets?

我还能如何使我的市场多样化？

China is looking around, saying buying more agricultural produce from South America, as we know, but also its exports are going gangbusters to parts of the world other than America.

正如我们所知，中国正在环顾四周，比如从南美购买更多农产品，但其对除美国以外世界其他地区的出口也正在突飞猛进。

And then those other countries in the middle are saying, you know, who else can we start doing more trade deals with?

然后那些中间的其他国家正在说，你知道，我们还能和谁开始做更多的贸易协议？

They're accelerating trade negotiations.

他们正在加速贸易谈判。

They're accelerating ways of doing business with each other, looking for new markets.

他们正在加速彼此之间的商业合作方式，寻找新的市场。

So it's very early stages, but that US-China trade war is starting to poke some change in the global trade.

所以现在还处于非常早期的阶段，但中美贸易战正在开始在全球贸易中引起一些变化。

You know, I mean, I think the question is, the question that JD Vance probably doesn't have an answer to, can China be cut off from US trade longer than we can stay solvent because the rare earth minerals (Rare Earth Minerals: 一组具有独特磁性、催化和光学性质的17种元素，广泛应用于高科技产品) that they have, we cannot get in size from anywhere else, and we're not going to be able to process them here, to refine them here anytime soon.

你知道，我的意思是，我认为问题是，JD万斯可能没有答案的问题是，中国能否在比我们保持偿付能力更长的时间内被切断与美国的贸易，因为他们拥有的稀土矿物（Rare Earth Minerals: 一组具有独特磁性、催化和光学性质的17种元素，广泛应用于高科技产品），我们无法从其他任何地方大量获得，而且我们近期也无法在这里加工它们，在这里提炼它们。

So, you know, Meredith Whitney in a note on Sunday said, aside from the massive dependence on the US industrial complex for these rare earth metals and magnets, the US military is 100% dependent on them and nearly depleted of its reserves.

所以，你知道，梅雷迪思·惠特尼在周日的一份报告中说，除了对这些稀土金属和磁体的美国工业综合体的巨大依赖外，美国军方100%依赖它们，而且其储备几乎耗尽。

So, I mean, don't we need them more than they need us right now?

所以，我的意思是，我们现在不是比他们更需要他们吗？

Enda Curran: Yeah, I think we're all at a point now where we are fully aware that if there is a vulnerability in the hulkish trade stance that the US is taking on China, it's on rare earth supplies.

恩达·柯伦：是的，我认为我们现在都清楚地意识到，如果美国对中国采取的强硬贸易立场存在脆弱性，那就在于稀土供应。

China is the one digging them out of the ground.

中国正在把它们从地下挖出来。

China is the one that's taking on the refining risk there, the environmental risk, and the cost associated with it at a scale that no other country is doing.

中国正在承担那里的提炼风险、环境风险以及与之相关的成本，其规模是其他任何国家都无法比拟的。

And that's why America and everybody else is so reliant on China and getting those minerals out here.

这就是为什么美国和其他所有国家都如此依赖中国，并把这些矿物运到这里。

And that's why China, of course, it's well aware of its leverage.

所以中国当然很清楚自己的影响力。

It's floated those export controls that it did last week or the week before that, of course, has sent shock waves not just through the US but the rest of the world too.

它在上周或前一周提出了那些出口管制措施，当然，这不仅在美国，而且在世界其他地方也引起了轩然大波。

And China's making clear that it's in control of these.

中国明确表示它控制着这些。

Now this is a policy error though.

然而，这是一个政策错误。

If you go back maybe 15 years ago, there was a big, there was a discussion around rare earth supply at that time.

如果你回到大约15年前，当时围绕稀土供应有过一场大讨论。

There were other options on the table.

当时还有其他选择。

It's not just China that has these minerals.

并非只有中国拥有这些矿物。

Other countries could have put money into the ground and put the money into the resources and the facilities needed to extract these.

其他国家本可以投资于地下资源以及提取这些矿物所需的设施。

There are some companies in the US that are talking about or trying to get off the ground at the moment in doing this.

目前美国有一些公司正在讨论或尝试开展这方面的工作。

But the point is, we're at a stage where China has a grip and a lock on the system to the point where everybody else is years behind.

但关键是，我们正处于这样一个阶段：中国对这个体系拥有掌控权和锁定权，以至于其他国家都落后了多年。

It will take a long time and...

这将需要很长时间，而且……

It's not just getting them out of the ground, Enda.

恩达，这不仅仅是把它们从地下挖出来。

I mean, I talked to industrial CEOs who do business globally and have told me, "Look, we've seen the refining process in China, and it is horrific."

我的意思是，我曾与在全球开展业务的工业界首席执行官交谈，他们告诉我：“看，我们见过中国的提炼过程，那简直是骇人听闻。”

"It is the kind of environmental risk that American voters just would not be willing to take."

“那是美国选民绝不愿意承担的环境风险。”

"So no one else can refine them at these levels, at least with today's methods, without sacrificing like a portion of humanity."

“所以，至少以今天的方法，没有其他人能以这种规模提炼它们，而不牺牲一部分人类。”

"So we're not going to do that, are we?"

“所以我们不会那样做，对吧？”

Enda Curran: Well, and that's entirely right.

恩达·柯伦：嗯，这完全正确。

Environmental risk is a big part of the equation, but there are some companies, by the way, including some in the US, who are looking for cleaner ways to do this.

环境风险是考量中的一个重要部分，但顺便说一句，有一些公司，包括美国的一些公司，正在寻找更清洁的方法来做这件事。

So but obviously nothing like on the scale that China currently offers, but other countries as well are coming to the table.

所以，显然没有达到中国目前提供的规模，但其他国家也正在加入进来。

Pakistan, for example, is floating itself as a potential partner for these minerals for the US.

例如，巴基斯坦正在将自己定位为美国在这些矿物方面的潜在合作伙伴。

They can be sourced from other countries too.

它们也可以从其他国家采购。

That's why Argentina is in the mix at the moment when we talk about the support that the US Treasury is offering Argentina.

这就是为什么当我们谈论美国财政部向阿根廷提供的支持时，阿根廷目前也参与其中。

One of the reasons is because of the minerals Argentina has.

原因之一是阿根廷拥有矿产。

So but but yes, the point is that no one's doing it on the scale that China is right now.

所以，是的，重点是目前没有哪个国家能像中国那样大规模地做这件事。

And until that changes, China has leverage over the rest of the global trading system.

在这种情况改变之前，中国对全球贸易体系的其余部分拥有影响力。

Hey, I want to go into your story that looks at global trade flows, and you look at what shipping companies are seeing and some of the changes, but there's a quote in the story, an associate professor of economics at the University of California at Davis, Ena Siminoca, and it said this individual saying, "It's very clear that we are redrawing the map of international trade."

嘿，我想谈谈你的那篇关于全球贸易流动的报道，你关注了航运公司正在看到的情况以及一些变化，但报道中引用了加州大学戴维斯分校经济学副教授埃娜·西米诺卡的话，她说：“很明显，我们正在重新绘制国际贸易地图。”

"We're going to see a lot more bilateral trade agreements between countries and subgroups of countries."

“我们将看到国家之间和国家次级集团之间出现更多的双边贸易协定。”

She predicts this.

她预测了这一点。

What does that mean for economic growth for individual countries and for the global economy overall?

这对单个国家的经济增长和全球经济整体意味着什么？

Do we know anything?

我们知道些什么吗？

Is it good?

是好是坏？

Is it bad?

是好是坏？

Enda Curran: Well, it's early stages, but we're getting, we are seeing signs now that countries are looking at accelerating trade negotiations with each other and signing deals with each other.

恩达·柯伦：嗯，现在还处于早期阶段，但我们正在看到迹象，各国正在考虑加速彼此之间的贸易谈判并签署协议。

Now, the European Union is one example.

现在，欧盟就是一个例子。

They've finally gotten that deal signed with Indonesia.

他们终于与印度尼西亚签署了那项协议。

They are getting that big trade negotiation with South America Mercosur (Mercosur: 南方共同市场，一个南美洲的贸易集团) off the ground to try to get that ratified.

他们正在与南美洲南方共同市场（Mercosur: 南方共同市场，一个南美洲的贸易集团）进行一项大型贸易谈判，试图使其获得批准。

Other countries are also looking at doing business more with each other like New Zealand and Switzerland and the UAE are among a group who've gotten together, and it's kind of a loose trading agreement that they've pulled together over recent months.

其他国家也在寻求更多地彼此开展业务，例如新西兰、瑞士和阿联酋等国组成了一个联盟，他们在最近几个月达成了一种松散的贸易协议。

And the point of all of this is, as I said at the start, it's nobody suggesting the US is not the world's biggest consumer market and that they don't want to do business here.

所有这一切的重点是，正如我一开始所说，没有人认为美国不是世界上最大的消费市场，也没有人认为他们不想在这里做生意。

That's not the point.

那不是重点。

But they're seeing the tariffs going up at the fastest pace since World War II.

但他们看到关税以二战以来最快的速度上涨。

It's more complicated, more costly for some of the businesses who want to do trade with the US.

对于一些希望与美国进行贸易的企业来说，这变得更加复杂和昂贵。

And they're asking what else can they do to diversify and mix up their supply lands and their markets.

他们正在询问还能做些什么来使其供应地和市场多样化。

And we're seeing it in Peruvian fruit farmers.

我们正在秘鲁果农身上看到这一点。

They're looking for new alternative markets in Lesotho.

他们在莱索托寻找新的替代市场。

They're looking for alternative textile markets maybe in Europe and in Asia.

他们正在寻找替代的纺织品市场，可能在欧洲和亚洲。

So, you know, as I say, the tariff wall when it's gone up on the US side, it's not about countries not wanting to do business here, but they are certainly kicking tires on where else they can diversify.

所以，你知道，正如我所说，当美国方面筑起关税壁垒时，这并不是说其他国家不想在这里做生意，但他们肯定正在积极探索其他可以实现多元化的地方。

And that's what these trade negotiations are getting a shot in the arm as one of one of the professors quoting the article said to us.

正如文章中引用的一位教授告诉我们的那样，这些贸易谈判正在获得一剂强心针。

All right, we're talking with Enda Curran, global economy reporter at Bloomberg News in our DC bureau.

好的，我们正在与恩达·柯伦交谈，他是彭博新闻社华盛顿特区办事处的全球经济记者。

At the same time, we are monitoring the White House, the cabinet room.

同时，我们正在关注白宫的内阁会议室。

President Trump is there with President Milei of Argentina.

特朗普总统正在那里与阿根廷总统米莱会面。

They are having a bilateral lunch and obviously a meeting.

他们正在进行双边午餐，显然还有一次会议。

We're monitoring any headlines that come out of that meeting.

我们正在密切关注这次会议可能产生的任何头条新闻。

In the meantime, you know, and you talk about in this story these bilateral relationships, or at least folks that you talk to are talking about a lot more bilateral trade agreements.

与此同时，你知道，你在这篇报道中谈到了这些双边关系，或者至少你采访的人正在谈论更多的双边贸易协定。

Who wins though?

但谁会赢呢？

Big countries, small countries, middle-sized countries.

大国、小国、中等国家。

Is there clear winners and losers on that metric?

在这个指标上，是否有明确的赢家和输家？

Enda Curran: Well, probably the biggest countries will be the ones who come out of this in better order because, you know, the system up until now, whether one agrees with it or not, but the broad system up until a few years ago had been rules of the road set by the World Trade Organization (World Trade Organization, WTO: 旨在规范和促进国际贸易的政府间组织).

恩达·柯伦：嗯，可能最大的国家会从中受益更多，因为，你知道，直到现在，无论人们是否同意，但直到几年前，大致的体系都是由世界贸易组织（World Trade Organization, WTO: 旨在规范和促进国际贸易的政府间组织）设定的规则。

This is where countries big and small could come together and have their disagreement and argue out their case for whatever their grievance was in the trade world.

在这里，大大小小的国家可以聚集在一起，表达他们的分歧，并就他们在贸易领域遇到的任何不满进行辩论。

But, you know, we've moved past that now.

但是，你知道，我们现在已经超越了那个阶段。

We're kind of moving into this bilateral sort of approach to doing trade deals.

我们正在转向这种双边贸易协议的方式。

So when you have a big country, they are able to set the terms on the table, and the smaller country, of course, has to work around that.

所以，当一个大国出现时，他们能够设定谈判条款，而小国当然必须围绕这些条款进行周旋。

And that's where we are.

我们现在就是这样。

It's not just, it's not just the US, of course, and China is the other big player in the global trading system.

当然，不仅仅是美国，中国是全球贸易体系中另一个大玩家。

They, as we just spoke about, hold the cards in so many areas now when it comes to not just rare earths, but they're the world's, you know, factory.

正如我们刚才所说，他们现在在许多领域都掌握着主动权，不仅仅是稀土，他们还是世界的工厂。

So they also will set terms, and countries are worried about China's volume of exports and trying to compete against China too, given the scale and competitiveness of which they can produce products versus other countries.

所以他们也会设定条款，各国也担心中国的出口量，并试图与中国竞争，考虑到他们生产产品的规模和竞争力与其他国家相比。

So the big picture is better for bigger countries, tougher for smaller countries.

所以总体来看，对大国更有利，对小国则更艰难。

All right, Enda Curran, thank you so much on today's news and his story global economy reporter at Bloomberg News.

好的，恩达·柯伦，非常感谢您今天的新闻和他的报道，彭博新闻社全球经济记者。

You can read the entirety of it.

你可以阅读全文。

It's on the Bloomberg and bloomberg.com.

它在彭博社和彭博网站上。

Stay with us.

请继续收听。

More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily coming up after this.

稍后将有更多《彭博商业周刊日报》内容。

You're listening to the Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast.

您正在收听《彭博商业周刊日报》播客。

Catch us live weekday afternoons from 2:00 to 5:00 Eastern.

请在美东时间周日下午2点至5点收听我们的直播。

贝莱德的增长战略与资产管理趋势

I'm driving.

我在开车。

How about you let me drive?

你让我来开怎么样？

Oh, no, no, no, no.

哦，不，不，不，不。

This is not a toy.

这不是玩具。

Who's going to drive you home?

谁送你回家？

Honey, please.

亲爱的，拜托了。

I'll do the driving.

我来开车。

Drive home.

开车回家。

Excuse me.

抱歉。

I want to drive.

我想开车。

It's the question that drives us.

这是驱动我们的问题。

This is the drive to the close.

这是冲刺收盘。

The funky music will drive us till the dawn on Bloomberg radio.

彭博广播电台的放克音乐将伴我们直到黎明。

All right, folks. Let's get to it.

好的，各位。我们开始吧。

We've got about 18 minutes to go until we wrap up the trade on this Tuesday.

本周二，我们还有大约18分钟就结束交易了。

Carol Masser along with Isabelle Lee.

卡罗尔·马塞尔和伊莎贝尔·李。

Tim is off this week, and we've got a market that's just rolling over its best levels of the session.

蒂姆这周休息，我们看到市场正在从盘中高点回落。

So, what does that mean?

那么，这意味着什么呢？

We're down about 12 points on the S&P 500 (Standard & Poor's 500: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数), and we've got the NASDAQ 100 (NASDAQ 100: 衡量纳斯达克市场100家大型非金融公司股票表现的指数), which has been under more pressure today.

标普500指数（Standard & Poor's 500: 衡量美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数）下跌了大约12点，而纳斯达克100指数（NASDAQ 100: 衡量纳斯达克市场100家大型非金融公司股票表现的指数）今天承受了更大的压力。

It's down about 2/3 of 1%.

它下跌了约0.67%。

It's down about 161 points.

它下跌了大约161点。

I look at the S&P 500 though.

不过，我看看标普500指数。

Isabelle, still most names in the index are higher today.

伊莎贝尔，今天指数中的大多数股票仍然上涨。

Can I talk about crypto?

我能谈谈加密货币吗？

You can talk about crypto.

你可以谈谈加密货币。

Bitcoin is down by more than 3%, and Ether is the one leading the broader downturn.

比特币下跌超过3%，而以太坊是引领更广泛跌势的加密货币。

Actually, it's the largest altcoin (Altcoin: 除比特币之外的所有加密货币).

实际上，它是最大的山寨币（Altcoin: 除比特币之外的所有加密货币）。

It's down by almost 5%, wiping out really billions since the biggest 1-day industry drop on Friday.

它下跌了近5%，自周五行业最大单日跌幅以来，实际上蒸发了数十亿美元。

It's been, we've seen crypto under pressure as of late, right?

最近我们看到加密货币承受着压力，对吧？

A lot of pressure, and that really raises a question of we thought this was the haven, but then it's behaving like a risk asset.

很大的压力，这确实引发了一个问题：我们以为它是避险资产，但它却表现得像风险资产。

It's really funny because I feel like...

这真的很有趣，因为我感觉……

Yeah, we see it.

是的，我们看到了。

Exactly. Exactly.

没错。没错。

We see it kind of following the markets really closely.

我们看到它紧密跟随市场。

Hey, let's get to some of the earnings that we saw today.

嘿，我们来看看今天的一些财报。

We've talked about the big banks so far that were out early this morning.

我们已经谈到了今天早上公布财报的大型银行。

Another one that came out is BlackRock.

另一个公布财报的是贝莱德。

Stocks up about three and a half% in today's session.

今天交易中股价上涨了大约3.5%。

The world's largest fund manager pulled in 205 billion of client money in the third quarter and expanded its footprint in private credit and alt assets.

这家全球最大的基金管理公司在第三季度吸引了2050亿美元的客户资金，并扩大了其在私募信贷和另类资产领域的足迹。

As we drive to the close, Kathy Seafford is with us.

在临近收盘之际，凯西·西福德和我们在一起。

She's vice president of CFR Research.

她是CFR研究公司的副总裁。

She covers BlackRock.

她负责贝莱德的分析。

She joins us from New Jersey.

她在新泽西与我们连线。

Kathy, good to have you here with Isabelle and me.

凯西，很高兴你和伊莎贝尔以及我在一起。

BlackRock investors like what they got from the company.

贝莱德的投资者喜欢他们从公司那里得到的东西。

Tell me about it.

告诉我吧。

This company, massive, sees so much.

这家公司规模庞大，看到了很多。

They continue to grow.

他们持续增长。

Do you like what you heard from the company?

你喜欢你从公司那里听到的吗？

Kathy Seafford: Yes, I do.

凯西·西福德：是的，我喜欢。

And I have a buy recommendation on BlackRock, and I was encouraged by what I heard on the call and also in the numbers they reported.

我对贝莱德有买入建议，电话会议上听到的以及他们报告的数字都让我感到鼓舞。

And basically, BlackRock laid out a strategy of basically having three pillars of growth: strong ETF (Exchange Traded Fund, ETF: 一种在证券交易所上市交易的开放式基金) offering and strong ETF inflows, an increased exposure to alternative assets (Alternative Assets: 传统资产类别（如股票、债券）之外的投资，包括私募股权、对冲基金、房地产等), and an enhanced suite of offerings in its technology services business, trademarked Aladdin (Aladdin: 贝莱德开发的风险管理和投资组合管理技术平台).

基本上，贝莱德制定了一个增长战略，主要有三大支柱：强大的交易所交易基金（Exchange Traded Fund, ETF: 一种在证券交易所上市交易的开放式基金）产品和强劲的ETF资金流入，增加对另类资产（Alternative Assets: 传统资产类别（如股票、债券）之外的投资，包括私募股权、对冲基金、房地产等）的敞口，以及在其技术服务业务（注册商标为阿拉丁平台（Aladdin: 贝莱德开发的风险管理和投资组合管理技术平台））中提供更完善的产品套件。

And in the quarter, we saw basically it hitting on all of those cylinders.

在本季度，我们基本上看到它在所有这些方面都取得了成功。

You know, the market has been decent this quarter, and I think a lot of asset managers are going to see their assets under management grow because of decent market performance.

你知道，这个季度市场表现不错，我认为很多资产管理公司会因为良好的市场表现而看到其管理资产的增长。

But it's important to see who's bringing in or who's, you know, who's producing organic growth, who's bringing assets in the door.

但重要的是要看谁在引入或谁在，你知道，谁在产生有机增长，谁在引入资产。

And in that, you know, on that score, BlackRock really hit it out of the park this quarter.

在这方面，你知道，在这个分数上，贝莱德本季度表现非常出色。

So you detailed the three pillars driving the growth, but what caught my eye is that private markets and tax services revenue now exceed those from ETFs and fixed income.

你详细阐述了推动增长的三大支柱，但引起我注意的是，私募市场和税务服务收入现在已经超过了ETF和固定收益的收入。

And I'm an ETF reporter, so this really caught my antenna.

我是一名ETF记者，所以这真的引起了我的注意。

Was that outcome anticipated, or were you expecting that?

这个结果是预料之中的吗，还是你之前就预料到了？

Kathy Seafford: Well, that growth that we saw in the quarter is basically there's some year-to-year bumps because of the inclusion of some acquisitions.

凯西·西福德：嗯，我们本季度看到的增长基本上是因为一些收购的纳入，导致了一些同比波动。

That's not likely to be a run rate, but nevertheless, one of the strategies at BlackRock is to increase revenue contributions from both their technology business and their private market business.

这不太可能成为一个持续的增长率，但尽管如此，贝莱德的策略之一是增加其技术业务和私募市场业务的收入贡献。

And, you know, if you'll recall, they've spent the last couple of years pretty aggressively acquiring really pipelines in the private market and alternative asset space through which they can grow product.

而且，你知道，如果你还记得的话，他们过去几年相当积极地收购了私募市场和另类资产领域的管道，通过这些管道他们可以发展产品。

I mean, I think they did it very intelligently, and I think what we saw this quarter was the fruits of their labor, which is a positive.

我的意思是，我认为他们做得非常明智，而且我认为我们本季度看到的是他们努力的成果，这是一个积极的信号。

Speaking of private markets, we saw that fees there have grown around 136% year-over-year through third quarter of 2025.

谈到私募市场，我们看到截至2025年第三季度，那里的费用同比增长了大约136%。

How sustainable is that growth, especially as we enter this really challenging macro and economic macro and rate environment?

这种增长的可持续性如何，尤其是在我们进入这个充满挑战的宏观经济和利率环境之际？

Kathy Seafford: Well, I mean, that growth is not a run rate, and it reflects a contribution from acquisitions, but I do think that they can produce on a firmwide basis mid-teen revenue growth, which is significantly greater than many of their peers.

凯西·西福德：嗯，我的意思是，这种增长并非一个持续的运行速度，它反映了收购带来的贡献，但我确实认为，他们可以在公司层面实现中双位数的营收增长，这远高于许多同行。

And if you look at the asset management space, on one end of the spectrum, you have kind of the traditional long-only asset managers (Long-only Asset Managers: 仅通过买入并持有资产来获取收益的基金管理公司), many of whom are bleeding assets, and you have the private equity firms (Private Equity Firms: 投资于未上市公司的公司) that have had really good performance, but recently have struggled a little bit because there's some, you know, issues with realizations and whatnot.

如果你看看资产管理领域，一端是传统的多头资产管理公司（Long-only Asset Managers: 仅通过买入并持有资产来获取收益的基金管理公司），其中许多公司正在流失资产；另一端是表现一直很好的私募股权公司（Private Equity Firms: 投资于未上市公司的公司），但最近由于变现等问题，它们也遇到了一些困难。

Sort of in the middle of that is BlackRock, which is sort of a hybrid of both models.

介于两者之间的是贝莱德，它有点像是这两种模式的混合体。

So I think the private, or the alternative asset revenue contribution will enhance overall revenue growth, but the ETF business, which is very deep and very broad and also has made a number of innovations.

所以我认为私募或另类资产的收入贡献将提升整体收入增长，但ETF业务，它非常深入和广泛，也进行了许多创新。

You were talking about crypto before.

你之前提到了加密货币。

BlackRock brought in more crypto assets than some of its competitors brought in firmwide in this quarter.

本季度贝莱德引入的加密资产比其一些竞争对手整个公司引入的还要多。

So you know their suite of ETFs is really unmatched, and you have the combination of those two things really widens the competitive edge or the competitive moat around BlackRock when you look at alts, crypto, and then traditional assets.

所以你知道他们的ETF产品系列确实无与伦比，当你审视另类资产、加密货币和传统资产时，这两者的结合确实扩大了贝莱德的竞争优势或竞争护城河。

Is it just a moment of time or just before we start to see alts and crypto on par with traditional assets?

这只是一个时间点，还是我们即将看到另类资产和加密货币与传统资产平起平坐？

In what way do you mean on par?

你说的“平起平坐”是指什么？

Terms of making up their overall asset composition in terms of assets under management.

就其管理资产的整体资产构成而言。

So I'm just saying as we see the growth, we know we hear from Larry Fink and from BlackRock overall about the importance of private markets, private credit (Private Credit: 由非银行机构直接向企业提供的贷款).

所以我的意思是，随着我们看到增长，我们知道我们从拉里·芬克和贝莱德那里听到了关于私募市场、私募信贷（Private Credit: 由非银行机构直接向企业提供的贷款）重要性的整体看法。

So I'm just curious if you see a moment in time, or are we already there?

所以我只是好奇你是否看到了一个时间点，或者我们已经到达那里了？

Also what, 663 billion of client assets.

另外，还有6630亿美元的客户资产。

So I guess we're kind of there or close to it, right?

所以我想我们差不多到了，或者接近了，对吧？

Kathy Seafford: We're close to it, but I don't, I mean, I don't necessarily know if BlackRock is, is necessarily, you know, wanting that mix to shift that much.

凯西·西福德：我们接近了，但我不知道，我的意思是，我并不确定贝莱德是否，你知道，一定希望这种组合发生如此大的转变。

I mean there is, there is a positive to having alternative assets.

我的意思是，拥有另类资产确实有积极的一面。

They tend to not be as correlated to the broader markets as, you know, equities and fixed incomes are.

它们通常不像股票和固定收益那样与更广泛的市场高度相关。

But, you know, for BlackRock, it was important because the ETF business was becoming increasingly commoditized.

但是，你知道，对贝莱德来说，这很重要，因为ETF业务正变得越来越商品化。

Fee structures were pretty rapidly decelerating.

费用结构正在相当迅速地下降。

Shifting into alts and private credit achieve several goals.

转向另类投资和私募信贷可以实现几个目标。

It enhances their competitive position, but it also enhances their revenue growth, which is important.

它增强了他们的竞争地位，同时也促进了他们的收入增长，这很重要。

Is there any question that wasn't answered for you?

你还有什么问题没有得到回答吗？

Just got about 25 seconds.

只剩下大约25秒了。

Kathy Seafford: Um, no.

凯西·西福德：嗯，没有。

I think the one, you know, the one issue at BlackRock is a succession issue.

我认为，你知道，贝莱德的一个问题是接班人问题。

I don't think Fink is leaving anytime soon, but that's always, you know, that's kind of always an issue and sort of what executive changes they're going to make to sort of bolster their operations amid this asset mix shift.

我不认为芬克会很快离开，但这总是一个问题，以及在这种资产组合转变中，他们将进行哪些高管变动来支持他们的运营。

All right, going to leave it on that note.

好的，就此打住。

Kathy, great to get some time with you.

凯西，很高兴能与你交流。

Kathy Seafford, she's vice president CFR Research, covering BlackRock as she mentioned at the top.

凯西·西福德，她是CFR研究公司的副总裁，负责贝莱德的报道，正如她一开始提到的。

She does have a buy rating on the stock.

她确实对该股票有买入评级。

BlackRock shares up 3.6%.

贝莱德股价上涨3.6%。

Do you want to share on a competing network?

你想在竞争对手的网络上分享吗？

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said AI is not a bubble, but there will be failures.

贝莱德首席执行官拉里·芬克表示，人工智能不是泡沫，但会有失败。

And he said on AI in terms of, I guess, their own spending.

他说，就人工智能而言，我想是他们自己的开支。

This is capital that is mostly well spent.

这笔资本大部分都花得很值。

I know, right.

我知道，对吧。

Yeah. Time will tell.

是的。时间会证明一切。

This is the Bloomberg Businessweek Daily podcast available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

这是《彭博商业周刊日报》播客，可在Apple Podcasts、Spotify以及其他任何你收听播客的平台获取。

Listen live weekday afternoons from 2:00 to 5:00 p.m. Eastern on Bloomberg.com, the iHeart Radio app, TuneIn, and the Bloomberg Business App.

美国东部时间周日下午2点至5点，在Bloomberg.com、iHeart Radio应用程序、TuneIn和彭博商业应用程序上收听直播。

You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube, and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

您也可以每天在YouTube上观看我们的直播，并始终通过彭博终端收看。