Author and pollster Daryl Bricker and journalist John Ibbitson believed that even before Trump started tariffing Canada and threatening to annex us, the country was in trouble.

In their new book, Breaking Point: The New Big Shifts Putting Canada at risk, they look at regional tensions, immigration issues, the crisis facing young people, and more.

I asked what they see as the country's path forward.

Daryl, Joan, thank you so much for joining us in our makeshift studio of the rundown. How are you guys doing?

>> Great to be here.

>> Thanks.

>> Thanks to have for having us here, Jay. We really appreciate it.

>> We're going to start off actually with uh some reading from your book.

It starts off with Canada is not a love story. It is a marriage of convenience, a survival strategy conceived a century and a half ago for a collection of colonies that were determined to protect their autonomy from America's manifest destiny. The result is a nation held together not by a shared vision but by barely managed tensions.

John, there have been tensions between regions for a long time in our history before and after confederation. What makes this moment a breaking point?

So there are two things hap there are a lot of things happening but there are two big things happening uh we call it the horizontal problem and the vertical problem.

The horizontal problem and the vertical problem.

The horizontal problem is um regional alienation.

So yes we have uh it looks as though we're going to have a PQ government in Quebec and they're saying they're going to have a third referendum on sovereignty but at the very same time we could have a referendum on sovereignty in Alberta.

Right. So we have as we we've talked about in the past as you know this growing power and u wealth and importance uh in the prairie provinces not fully and properly represented in Ottawa um and growing alienation and anger especially over the last 10 years or so um uh out there.

So um we have a collection of different breaking points, a collection of different regional Indian nations.

Um that's the horizontal one.

And then vertically we have intergenerational challenges.

We have um a millennial and a gen zed um generations that have every realistic expectation of not doing as well as their parents, right?

Um and they are very angry about that and they should be very angry about that.

Um and some of them are turning um into a sort of a populist conservatism.

There's nothing wrong with that, but there's also the real risk that they might just turn away from Canada entirely.

Um, and if Donald Trump comes along with a good enough offer, uh, some of them might think it might be time to leave.

So, these are the two big things we have going on at the very same time, uh, that put the country uniquely at risk.

Darl, how did we get to this point?

Well, it's a metaphor that that John came up with.

Uh he said uh you know we've uh kicked a lot of count cans down the road for a long time and finally the chickens have come home to roost and as John said to with this uh if you're going to mix your metaphors do so gloriously and that's that's what we did but essentially that was it.

I mean uh you know we've avoided those things that a nation needs to do to keep itself together starting into the book.

You know the question I had in my head was one that was raised by George Grant in his lament for a nation.

It's the 60th year of that book, the anniversary of its publication.

And he asked a very interesting question and it was, "Are we a unique species on the North American continent?"

And so the book in many ways is an answer to that question and a uh a program as to how we can answer that question successfully because in many ways we're facing the same challenge that we faced back in the 1860s uh when we brought this country together and decided that we would be better together as one country as opposed to being something uh together with what's on the southern side of the 49th parallel.

So uh for for us I mean the book is really uh you know a kur about about how we need to deal with those chickens and those cans and uh and make sure that we remain an independent country going into the future.

Speaking of that, Darl, I want to stick with you.

Threats against our sovereignty have brought Canadians together.

Would you share that view?

I think in the short term uh there's a certain element of Canada that that uh certainly would be well described by that.

So we saw that group definitely vote for Mark Carney in the last election.

But these are mostly people for whom uh the national project has worked well.

It's paid off for them.

Uh they're older people, people who for whom the Canadian promise is actually delivered.

For younger people, they're not feeling the same vibe.

Uh particularly younger men, as we talk about in the book and and also uh if you go to a place like Alberta these days, uh they're definitely not feeling the same vibe.

And we saw that outcome in the in the election campaign.

There's big parts of this country who don't feel exactly the same way.

Yes, they're proud to be Canadian, but they don't necessarily think that this form of Canada is working as well as it as it should for them.

All right. Well, that leads me to this.

It's not just regional tension. Of course, the ter tension around affordability and you both address three things in your book, and we'll go through all three of them about the role of a prime minister.

One is to keep the economy moving.

So, with that, how is Canada performing on that?

not very well.

Um the OECD uh says that we have one of the worst productivity levels um of any member of the OECD and there's no reason to expect it will ever get any better.

Um and and that's a a real problem.

It's always been a chronic problem uh for Canada.

We don't seem to have the productivity levels that the United States has, but it's getting worse.

We're falling farther and farther behind.

Um does Mark Carney's budget uh address it?

I think perhaps in some ways it does.

Uh but is it are we ready to make the kind of big fundamental changes structurally that we need to make in order to reorient our economy away just from selling cars into the south uh but selling products to Europe products to uh Asia Pacific um we haven't done a very good job of doing any of those things and that's why when Donald Trump arrives and says hey we're going to take all your manufacturing go away from you and we're going to offer you annexation um we're not in a very good position uh to to fight So, how do we fix that?

I think we we start uh with uh a general demobiliz deregulation of the economy.

Um let's make it easy to invest.

Uh let's make it uh let's get rid of the rules and the regulations.

Let's uh encourage people uh to put down put down some money.

Um and then let's build the infrastructure that we need to build so that we can send our goods uh and products uh to India, to China, uh to Europe, and that that's going to involve maybe pipelines.

It's going to involve maybe uh new ports.

Um but we so we can look at the at the big structural things which we've done in the past, right?

We we built the St. Lauren Seaway, we built the transcontinental railway, we put the the airport system together.

What do we have to do to what what do we have to put together now?

Uh that's the big federal provincial infrastructure stuff.

And then what can we do to encourage businesses to stop looking south of the border and start looking uh at new markets um in in the Pacific uh and in the European uh realm as well.

Now we are seeing some of those relations of course the last weeks APAC and all of that.

So we'll we'll talk a little bit about that.

Darl, I want your take on the fall budget.

Uh does this help keep the economy moving?

Well, I think it's something that's for the long term and they were talking about generational investment.

Uh but uh from a political perspective, uh if you go out and ask Canadians, and I'm going to put on my public opinion pollster hat here today of what they were looking in for in the budget, they didn't see very much of what they were looking for.

If you look at the number one issue for Canadians today, it's affordability.

Uh and if you look at the uh the specific issue within affordability that bothers them the most, it's about housing.

And there was nothing really of any significance that would change how I'm going to look at what I'm paying for my mortgage or for my rent uh next month.

There was nothing in in the budget that spoke to that.

So I think that you know economists and you know uh government planners and policy experts may see a lot of good in in the budget.

But when you ask the ordinary Canadian about whether there was anything that happened in that in that budget that would make their affordability concerns any better next month, the answer is it's hard to find.

All right, I want to move on to the second role.

Uh the other task is a big one. Handle the Americans.

Uh right now talks of course between Canada and the US have been chilled.

How do you deal with someone?

It's not just the Americans.

We're dealing with someone that perhaps many have not seen in Donald Trump.

We talked a little bit, but how do you handle someone like Donald Trump?

Well, again, um, you you have to accept the fact that we will always have the United States as our biggest trading partner, right?

They're close. They speak English, the world's biggest economy.

So, we have to weather the storms that are coming at us.

um get the best deal that we can knowing there are going to be tariffs, knowing that we're going to lose some manufacturing, but still get the best deal that we can cooperate with them in continental defense, uh which means investing heavily in NORAD um in in and and and in defense in general.

Um and then again looking to new allies um old allies in Europe and new allies in the Pacific and say look if the United States is actually going to step away from the role of the anchor of the western alliance what can we do with each other uh to keep that alliance alive and I think there there there are answers there and that we we have seen a prime minister who is very much on the road trying to develop new alliances and and shore up old ones.

Uh I think if Pierre Palv were prime minister, he would be doing exactly the same thing.

Um so there I think uh it's a case of live with what we've got, accept the new reality, and then look to to find new ways to build uh new bridges uh with um Pacific and European allies.

You mentioned uh defense.

Did the budget deliver on that?

We saw some spending in in defense.

We saw about a billion dollars in the Arctic as well.

Does that it's it's a great budget for defense.

Now, it's an announcement.

There have been many budgets that say over the course of the next 5 years, we're going to spend a gazillion dollars.

Right now, we're we're we're our airplanes are sitting on the tarmac, but someday we're going to we're we're going to get those airplanes.

So, are we going to get new submarines?

Are we are we going to increase uh recruitment?

Um are we going to invest in space defense um uh and and aerospace defense?

uh if that money gets spent, if the procurement part uh uh gets fixed as well as just the grand announcement part, then yes, this will be a generally generationally important uh budget.

The first budget really since the Maloney years that takes defense in Canada seriously.

All right, Darl, let's talk about sort of the roles of of premers.

We know about the ad uh featuring the late US President Ronald Reagan.

BC also halted its campaign uh asking for a more of a a coordinated uh front in terms of the messaging there.

Should premers be getting involved in Canada US relations at all?

I don't know how you can stop them.

I mean because the the US counterparts are going to deal with them directly too.

But the interesting thing that's happening on the national unity front is as John pointed out earlier is that this is the first time that we've had two places in the country really kicking off and that's potentially Quebec, but definitely Western Canada these days.

and uh the the need for a prime minister as John A. Macdonald did.

I mean, you know, it's we're all about cancelling him uh these days, but we really should be looking at the genius of how he put this this country together.

You you mentioned the United States previously and our relationship with them, which we see as a really one of the three fundamental rules for any prime minister, but Johnny A. McDonald dealt with that that situation because it was antagonistic with the United States back then too by rallying the country and that meant building relationships with premers who were even more canankerous than the ones that we have in our country today and got all of them to accept a glass half full in order to be able to keep this to build this country and that is going to be Mr. Carney's challenge.

So when you look at the national unity issue it's not about whether or not a premier is speaking to the government of the United States.

It's really about not dealing with the antagonist on the other side.

It's the it's the prime minister leading a a rallying here in this country to get people all on the same page and that's going to be a huge challenge for him.

But it's this is an important point in breaking point.

Uh we're not just talking about all the problems afflicting the country.

That's the first half of the book, right?

The second half of the book are is concerns solutions.

So yes, one of the the main reason why we have so much regional tension right now is that we had 10 years of liberal government that intervened in areas of provincial jurisdiction.

If you want healthcare, you have to do it our way.

Childare, you have to do it our way.

We're going to we're going to put together a climate policy.

If you don't do it, we're going to punish you for it.

Right?

Um that is the uh the real cause of the the re of the regional tensions that we have.

So first of all, federal governments have to stop interfering in areas of provincial jurisdiction.

and they have to get out of the face of the provincial governments.

And then second of all, we have to get the federal government out of Ottawa and into the different parts of the country.

We actually advocate moving major departments out, putting the heritage department in Saskatoon, uh putting parks in B.

Uh so that people in different parts of the country, fisheries in Halifax says, um so the people in different parts of the country can see their federal government working in the country in their region, working with them and and not just, you know, sending out low-level people.

the ministers there, the deputy ministers there.

We learned that we could have virtual cabinet meetings.

We don't have to have everybody in Ottawa all the time.

And it will actually, I think, we think change the actual sensibility of the country.

It'll change the the sensibility of the federal government because if we say da da da, well, the minister from Calgary is going to say that's not the way they see it here.

They see it differently.

So I think uh this is an important way make the federal government you know powerful in the areas of its jurisdiction in justice in defense and foreign policy in finance but get out of the get out of the hair of the provinces and get the federal government into the provinces in areas of their jurisdiction.

Does the council of the federation play a big role here?

We think the council of the federation works really well.

This is the 10 premers meeting.

Why not have the federal government sitting at the council of the federation but not as the boss of the council but rather just there listening to what the to what the council is saying and doing and there is where we find the compromise.

There is where we get consensus the premers and the prime minister meeting regulated together with the premers and the prime minister working together to find the compromises necessary to keep the country working.

All right. Uh Darl I want to ask uh your thoughts.

We talked a little bit about the budget, but just overall your thoughts on how the Carney government is doing overall is with the crisis that you have kind of painted, is this government meeting that?

Well, at the moment, it's difficult to see.

I mean, we see a lot of promises.

We see a lot of activity, but we don't necessarily see a lot of progress.

So, we're supposed to have all sorts of interprovincial uh trade barriers being dropped.

I haven't seen it.

Um, you know, we're supposed to be have reduced the federal provincial tensions.

I mean you've already asked a question about that.

Have have you seen it?

No.

We're supposed to be uh have negotiated a deal with the United States to settle down these uh the crossber tensions.

Has that been achieved?

No.

Uh we're supposed to have all sorts of uh new defense capabilities that are going to be up and running so we can defend ourselves.

Uh we, as John said, we've seen the commitments, but we really haven't seen anything produced.

Uh we just had a budget.

some of those things are addressed, but it's it's it's very it's very, you know, quietly and, you know, cat feet type of approach to uh to uh many of the issues that we're dealing with.

And, you know, we're in a time of urgency.

And I think that what's going to happen is the clock is going to run on this government and the pressure is going to start to build.

And they simply can't sit back and say because the Conservatives lost the last election, by the way, only by three points, and that Canadians can never see Pierre Polyv as being the prime minister.

I wouldn't count on that.

Events events could catch up up to them and the cautious approach of Mr. Carney uh given the speed of how events may take place as we get into 2026 may be seen as as as possibly not emphatic enough.

Uh give him give him his chance.

We'll we'll see how he responds to these events.

But, you know, Mr. Carney's skills have really been, you know, developed in boardrooms and and senior executive roles.

Very strong skills.

Uh but they are all directive.

there things about telling people what to do or whatever and this one is about building coalitions, communication, rallying the country and all the rest of it.

And he hasn't really that's not really his thing.

With that being said, we've got a minute left, 30 seconds each.

What what's your advice to Prime Minister Mark Carney in order to keep this country together?

Understand the challenge.

Go back and read Richard Gwin's biography of Johnny McDonald or or I was it Lavine's biography of of McKenzie King.

Understand the first thing that this is a very difficult country to govern.

Which means you have to be really committed to making this federalism system that we have here real and work and that will go a long way to starting to build national unity

and that means cutting uh means getting rid of regulations.

It means as for the up teenth time getting out of the hair of the of the provincial governments making it easy, predictable and swift uh for companies that want to invest give them the infrastructure that they need.

Um, and uh, if you do those things and you do them swiftly and emphatically and people see them being done, then I think we can get people starting to believe in the country again.

All right, we are going to leave it there.

Darl Breer, Johnson, co-authors of Breaking Point: The New Big Shifts putting Canada at risk.

Really appreciate it.

Real pleasure.

Thanks.

Thank you.

Thank you.

Appreciate it.