Hi everyone. Uh welcome to today's podcast. I have the honor to invite Professor Ron Pun and Yellan Bean to this uh talk show. We're going to discuss about the Democrat candidate for the 2028 presidential election. So uh Yamin, I don't know if you have seen our last GOP rating uh episode. We actually give scores to all the candidate in the GOP camp, the top five players we believe that in play. So today we're going to do the same for uh Democrat. Um I actually have Yamin uh did a few research uh we actually did last time and the result is quite shocking to me. So it turns out Yilamin you are uh outsider left here.

Yeah.

Are are you surprised about the result like

Yeah. I thought I saw you were on the right side than me. I was here, you know. I was involent right here, but you were actually outside or left.

Yes, the left and right is kind of strange because last time I was using eight dimension something that the other test I was getting 78% li

liberal, right? So the AD, right? The AD test. Okay.

Yeah, I was getting 78% liberal.

Maybe.

Maybe.

Still learning. Still learning.

Still learning. But you But you don't vote. You don't vote.

I don't vote.

Yeah, because you

He's in a blue state, so it doesn't matter like if you vote or not, right? Like your your state is already decided.

Yeah. It it doesn't matter if I vote or not. Yeah.

Yeah. All right. So, we're going to start uh with our candidate here. So, Professor uh the first one, we're going to rate this one. uh electability and uh we're going to read this five candidate uh Governor Nuomo uh the governor of California uh AOC Alexander Okasio Cortez. Did I pronounce his name correct, professor? Yes. Yes. Okay. Mayor Pete uh I don't know how to pronounce his uh last name. So, yeah. Okay. Kamla Harris, our former vice president, our last Democratic candidate, and Josh Shapiro, the governor of uh Pennsylvania. So, I'm going to start with uh Governor Nuome. Um, professor, what do you think about his electability? Like, from one to five, what score are you going to give him?

Well, uh, I'm going to give him a four. I I think that's a fairly generous rating. There's not been a strong history in the Democratic party of electing senators or governors from California.

It's not worked well.

He he will have that against him. The liberal uh from California is running. But what he's doing, the way he is using social media, the way he is mirroring Trump, you can see a steady climb in the favorable polls for him. He is his popularity is increasing among Democrats. So, I think he's trending right now uh as you would hope.

Yeah. What do you think about it, Eli? He's a fire to me.

Oh, really? Wow.

All about eyeballs. I've been seeing all all the news about him. I haven't seen any news about the other candidate much. So, all I see is Gavin Newsome. For me, you get the eyeball, very high chance you're going to win.

Okay. I'm actually going to give him a three here. Uh the reason is I think um he is definitely gaining a lot of uh you know media coverage and popularity among the Democrat but the problem is I don't think him you know you know the the party become more populist and I I think he's still you know the typical uh the elite le uh Democrat candidate. He's not you know like your AOC or Bernie Sanders wing. So, I just don't know how he would uh kind of play in the primary in 2028. It's It's just tough. I'll give him a year.

He got a lot of bad news like cheating on his best friend.

Oh, yeah. He he had a lot of problem, you know, like he's not very popular in California, you know, like people in California.

He calls in California. I mean, when you talk to a lot of people from from California, I personally don't know anyone from California who likes him.

Yeah, that's the saying, right? Like I heard a lot of uh bad uh reviews of his performance there because he he looks like a performance artist, but I do know like uh he does gain a lot of uh social media coverage for all the stuff he was doing here. So, yeah, I understand why you guys gave him high ratings, but I gave him a three. AOC professor, what do you think? I have a three for her. Uh

I think she is very bright. I think she will be able to speak to the average person uh the workers.

I think she's so young. I mean she will just meet the legal requirement to run age 35. Uh so I think it it will be it would be difficult for her but I never would count her out of anything. I just think she's uh very resourceful and in many ways very relatable.

Mhm. What do you think?

Also a three I think she's very popular. I don't agree with her logical many things like one time I was hearing she talking about Ela M being the dumbest billionaire. I'm like this is not possible.

Okay.

And I also heard she she doesn't like the prison system at all. She won't do abolish the prison. I don't know if that's true or not, but I did some digging. So pretty much she's leaning towards no prison, just everybody be nice. like it's kind of

too much.

Yeah.

Not going to work kind of thing. So, three.

Yeah, I'll give her a three as well. The reason is I think she's too young and uh she can definitely excite the base, you know, in the progressive wing, but I don't think she can get buying from the middle ground uh voters or even some of the leaning Republican ones. they will think her as too crazy or her policy too progressive. And also I think she just lack the experience to become the president. You know she she probably should run for senate or like other higher ranked officer uh than the president. President stage is too big for him for her. I think

Mayor Pit professor

uh I would give Mayor Pete a three. I I think that he clearly has a problem with people of color.

Mhm.

Did not have strong support when he was mayor in South Bend. And that has maintained throughout all polling. And you know, rightly or wrongly, I I think it's myself personally sad, but I think that his sexual sexuality will become an issue, too.

Yeah.

And and it's it's there. It's it's unfortunate, but it's the reality as to whether or not he is electable. Uh, I think these these last two we've talked about, AOC and Mayor Pete, I think there's a greater likelihood they could run for vice president than president.

I agree on being what do you think?

I would give one the same reason with Governor N. Seems like he doesn't get any coverage to me at least. I only hear about his name. I haven't heard anything exciting or interesting or drama. I haven't heard anything about this person. So, from my experience, one,

yeah, I'll give him a two. Um, a lot of reasons. So, first of all, I think inside the Democrat party, he looks too elite. He cannot speak, you know, the progressive language and he will not be regarded as a genuine progressive player. So the progressive wing won't support him. Also he lacks the you know people with colors support. You know when he was a mayor he had a lot of controversies for the you know police office

uh drama there. So that's a problem. And also for GOP uh voters his uh you know his uh identity as a as a gay will be a problem. Like I think there's a lot of there's a lot of voters on the GOB side. They take that as a big issue. So for that reason, I don't think he is electable like compared to the other two candidate. Yeah. All right. Camela Harris, professor.

Yeah. All right. Camela Harris, professor.

I'm gonna say and this is the same as Newsome and it's a very generous four.

Yeah. The main reason is that she has run and I think she learned from what she did wrong and her mistakes were were many. Uh so I think in in that regard she will understand the structure. She would try to correct errors from last time. Uh certainly her name is well known. So, it's a it's a generous four. It's similar to Newsome. I think she still has a lot of liabilities like Nuome, including for her, she's a loser. She lost.

Yeah. Yellow. What do you think?

I'll do a three. If Aoz got three, Camo Harris can get a three.

They are very similar.

Very similar. I'm going to give her a two. I just don't think she should run. I mean, I think she

she is uh she is a weak candidate to begin with. The only reason she was running in 2024 is because Biden want to play identity politics and pick her as a vice president.

Even for that job, she did a terrible job. I still voted for her in 2024 because I don't like Trump more. So like that's the only reason I vote for her. But if it's in primary, I would be have a hard time voting for her. I would not be excited for her to run.

Josh Shapiro, professor,

I'm gonna give Shapiro a three. Um, I think he has a lot going for him and we'll talk about it in in some of the subsequent uh dimensions, but I think the Israel issue is going to be difficult for him. Mhm.

Mhm.

You look at the the numbers in the Democratic Party, uh you have a large portion of that party who still supports Israel but doesn't support Netanyahu and what's going on right now in Gaza.

Yeah,

I think Shapiro will have a hard time if that war continues. I think this will be a very delicate issue for him. um as as rightly so. He's very proud of of of being Jewish, but it also kind of puts him on a spot in discussing uh the Israel issues and uh he may be viewed as out of step with the majority of the Democratic party there.

You know what I mean? What do you think?

also three should be higher but similar issue the professor was mentioning I I heard one one story during the PB PBD podcast he was covering a murder for a a person from Israel something like that but I don't know

oh yeah I heard there's a there's a controversy uh is that murder or uh rape

murder or some kind of criminal

yeah criminal yeah I don't know Like there's some there's some I think like the US Israel policy is kind of completely messed up like both party are kind of you know

um the Jewish descent has never been a US president yet.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah. I'll give him a three. uh for a lot of the reason you guys mentioned um I just think like for him his capability is definitely presidential like he he could be a good president if he really got elected but the problem is like inside the Democrat party there's a huge wing supporting the Palestinian people and they do not support anyone who stand with Netanyahu but Josh Shapiro made it clear he want to you support Israel. So that could be a problem. Uh even though that problem is still evolving, but like uh I don't know like when it comes to 2028, would Israel still have a war in Gaza? Like would that be settled? I mean that could be a big variable here. So I'll give him a three here. Okay. Now ma move on to the message clarity. Professor for Governs.

Well, I think I I would give Newsome a four here. I I think that he um I think he's a bright guy and I think that he is able to cut to the heart of things and I personally think what he's what he's doing by putting a mirror to Trump is very smart. I think it is calling out how ridiculous some of the things Trump

Yeah. car and and it's saying is this what we want is this the kind of behavior we want from our president

as he's selling merchandise so I I I think he is making some very strong I think he has a good staff a very smart staff who can help him craft uh very crisp messages that will be uh generally received well

yeah I mean what do you think

I I'll give a three cuz sometime when I hear his message it's kind of kind of weird. Yesterday I was I was listening to a video about him talking about ICE in the voting booth by saying Toronto Trump's a bad guy. He was saying ICE to the voting voting place but it's voting place you should be a citizen already. So

why are you worrying about that? So

yeah,

three.

Three. Um I'm going to give him a three as well. Uh the reason is like I kind of see right now he's kind of mimicking Trump. He's trolling Trump by like uh behaving like a Democrat version of Trump. The problem is Trump is authentic and he is uh acting. So I don't know how much for the voters like particular voter who are not either Trump strong Trump supporter or Trump haters how much of those voters would appreciate uh nuisance behavior because eventually you want to come across as a very how to say authentic person to the voters. I think right now he looks very performative and looks like a actor to me right now. So for me, I just don't feel uh he's connected with me. Yeah.

Let me let me just add one more point. I know our purpose isn't to debate here because I think everyone's making great points, but I think if if you just stick to the Democratic party, I think there's a huge number of Democrats who just see Trump as a schoolyard bully.

Yeah. Just as we tell our children, when you're faced with a school schoolyard bully, you can expose them by calling them out because that's the last thing they want to have happen.

So many Democrats have been waiting for somebody to take the bully on. Yeah. And all they found is a lot of spineless politicians in both parties. Yeah,

I give Nome a lot of credit for what he's doing right now. It may or may not be authentic authentic, but what he is doing is putting a mirror up to Trump and his behavior for everyone to see how ridiculous it is. And when you look at his polling numbers over the last two months, they have gone up dramatically. I mean, maybe a multiple of three. That to me says what he is doing is resonating. That's obviously not going to be enough by any means. But what it says to me is he is demonstrating he's willing to take on a bully and he has a good staff working with him coming up with very clever ways to do that. That's why I score him as I do.

Got it. Yeah, I agree. I think for a certain group, they definitely want to see, you know, someone stand up to Trump. The only problem is like Trump is not running in 2028, so it's going to be like a

Bruce, Bruce, it's way too early to say that, bro.

Yeah. Okay.

Just yesterday, just yesterday, a guy walked up on my street with a Trump 2028. Just yesterday.

Okay. that that is uh I mean if Trump can run, we can get Obama wrong again, you know.

Yeah, it's Yeah, it's it's over if that

Okay, for AOC professor, what do you think?

I give her a four. Like her or not like her, I think she does the best job saying let's get away from labels. Let's get away from calling people liberals and conservatives and right and left. I want to tell you what I'm for and let me know if you think it's reasonable right now. And he she's echoing a lot of Sanders comments and I've watched a number of Sanders recent speeches

and there he's hitting it. He he is connecting with do regardless of party. Do you think it's right that one person spent 27 or $270 million to elect a president this year? Do you think it's right that that same person's wealth is equal to 52% of the US population combined? So the way they're using numbers in comparative fashion, she's she can mimic a lot of what what Sanders has been saying.

If she can keep on the argument of don't label, just think about this. Are you satisfied with the way this country has evolved? I think those messages are going to score some points.

Mhm. Yeah, I agree. You know what I mean? What do you think? as four. I understand her message. Sometimes she has to be not so not so obvious. Like if you ask her about illegal immigrant, she'll be like, "No, nobody's illegal yet kind of thing." Cuz you can't really use the obvious word. It'll be like sound like a trumper. So four because I get her message

most of the time. I'm gonna give her a four. I think she can use a lot of rhetorics uh Bernie Sanders have been using. I think Bernie Sanders is like the mentor for her. Yes.

I'm gonna give her a four. I think she can use a lot of rhetorics uh Bernie Sanders have been using. I think Bernie Sanders is like the mentor for her. Yes.

And try to pass on the torch to her. So I think she can definitely build a strong message for the progressive agenda. And I think

Zoran Mandani was doing a great demonstration in New York City. progressive left could win elections at least win like primaries in Democrat party bigly. So I think she can definitely pick up a lot of that play girl and also she she's very good on social media. She has a lot of following on Twitter and she can do Tik Tok pretty well. She is um has good-looking uh is very presentable in the video. So I think she can use a lot of the skills uh Zola Madani was been doing in the Tik Tok.

And I think that the test for her is going to be you in most of these elections there's a push toward the middle.

You have to accept some of that and still do you your best to hold on to your base.

Yes,

I think she's going to be skilled enough to go a bit toward the middle but still hold on to her base. I really do.

She's going to understand to be elected, she's going to have to do that. A straight progressive candidate is not going to win.

That's the exact point I heard from PBD podcast. If she goes to middle, she will probably be the number one candidate.

Well, I think she's going to have to. I I I think any of them, you know, if if if the far left wants to make an issue over Sydney Sweeny's jeans, the Democrats are going to have a problem in 2028.

Oh, yeah.

But I don't think I don't think she'll go to the middle.

Once you go left, you got to go far.

Subtle moves. It It doesn't have to be a huge leap. And and again, I think she's very skilled at how she tries to define things and diffuse arguments that are all based on ideology and labeling people. I think she is the best at that and I think she could only get better. I I still think the age issue is huge for her.

Yeah. Mayor Pitt, Professor

uh I'm going to give Mayor Pete a three here. It just

I I think he did a very good job as transportation secretary. I think he got a lot of uh national play uh through the infrastructure bill. Uh I think he's very smart uh of this group. He and AOC would be the two that I would least want to debate.

Mhm. Um, but I think that just his ability to connect with uh multiple constituencies seems uh seems limited. And he does have a record in South Bend that he's going to be forced to explain in some cases.

Mhm. You know, what do you think?

I have to uh copy Professor's answer on this one because I don't know him much. I haven't heard any message from him. I thought he go on to Fox News a lot. You know, he debate with right-wing commentator. Yeah.

Does he do any podcast?

I think he did. He's a He's a very articulate person. He he debates. He's well educated. He is your typical elite politician, you know.

Okay. I'll try a couple video.

Yeah. No, I think you might find it worthwhile. I I agree with what Bruce just said. How you

You gave him a three, right? Message clarity.

Yeah.

Um I'll give him a four. I think he is wellspoken and he can definitely go on all kinds of podcasts. Like I definitely I definitely can see him going on, you know, Joe Rogan show, all the right-wing podcaster. He he could be sitting there talking about policies and debating for three hours, no problem. uh for that part I think he should be good. Um I think he probably shares some of the uh issues with Gavin New they just looks very elite and u less authentic. That's I think that's a problem. They they have to figure out how to communicate better. It's it's funny because Trump lies a lot but his base view him very authentic because he tell them like yeah I just lie like I just this is just me. So

it's interesting though he's losing support among the uh high school educated supporters. You know what was such a strong part of his base I think he's down about 7 percentage points there. So, I think there's going to be opportunity for the Democrats to connect with working voters who have become disillusioned with Trump. I think there enough enough room there that the Democrats can seize on that. Could Mayor Pete do it? I agree with all you said. He he he is very articulate. he doesn't get rattled and he will stick to his talking points and if he's

if he's well coached and hitting the right points, he could be a force.

Yeah.

Oh, I found a couple video. He's he's on Julie B and Flag.

Oh, yeah. He is He's very good at debating and uh he speaks really well,

but his se sexual orientation is going to be a big problem.

Oh, yeah. That's that's going to be a problem. But like, you know, come on. Uh, Besson can be our uh uh secretary of treasury. You know, he could be a MAGA as well. So,

maybe MAGA is over that part.

Kamla Harris, professor.

Well, I I can't give her after this last campaign. I can't give her more than the three.

Okay. Anyone that would be asked a question, you know, what would you do differently than Biden who says nothing comes to mind? I I can't, you know, but when you look at the debate, she did very good and that's why Trump wouldn't debate her a second time, you know. I think I don't agree with people who say she's not bright. I think she is bright and I just think

uh that moment was too big for her.

Maybe next time it it will be a little bit more reachable. I don't know. Most often you don't get a second chance. You know, Richard Nixon was an exception. We do have some exceptions to it.

U but uh I just don't you know I I I would give her a three with message clarity. Hopefully she's better coached next time.

Yeah. You know what I mean? What do you think?

A poor one.

What clarity?

If you a like a student try to learn English and you just watch your all her speech like what's coconut falling on the tree. You got to put what's behind the idea, the path, the way you just you put all the word together. It's like I understand all the English and I just don't understand the message. Okay.

No message there. Just words together.

Yeah, I'll give her a two. Uh I think same was what you guys just mentioned. I think like if she couldn't go on a Joe Rogan show and she just have problem, you know, sitting interview for longer than an hour, that going to be a problem. So

I'll give her a two message clarity for Josh Shapiro.

I would give Shapiro a four. I think he's very articulate. I I still am one who wonders what would have happened. I think he would have had some of the same issues that we talked about uh earlier uh about his electability. I I think that may have been a factor of why he wasn't selected for uh the vice presidential slot, but he is a very bright, articulate person who can uh he can speak in ways that resonate. When you look at his approval rating in Pennsylvania, uh it's very high.

Yeah, there's something about his style that resonates with people.

Yeah. I'll just mention that one story I read from a book uh recently published Josh Shapiro act very aggressive during the interview and he was talking about okay here's what I want to do if I become the VP and the Kamala team was like hold on hold on hold on we're interviewing you like we're not saying that you're already the VP so like you just act like a dick you know like an [ __ ]

and someone speculated that he intentionally did that so he just He just doesn't want to be the second banana because think about it. If he become the vice president and he won, the earliest he can run for president will be like 80 years later, right? Like in uh in uh 2032.

Yeah.

If they lost, that's going to be on him. He will be viewed as a loser. So, it's like a lose-lose situation. So, he would rather staying out of that. And also I think he probably saw some of the internal pollings in Pennsylvania.

Kla Harris was like lagging behind. So

I guess that's probably the reason he he just like did that.

He's very ambitious and sometimes the way he takes credit for things. I mean take the NFL draft for instance.

I don't know if you guys follow American football, but that's a big deal to land the draft. The Steeler organization has been trying to get it in Pittsburgh for many, many years. There were a lot of folks that were involved, but Shapiro tried to take all the credit for it. Soon as that announced, he said, "Oh, Roger Goodell, the commissioner of football, was probably tired of getting my phone calls." essentially saying, "You have to thank." I wrote him a letter about that. I didn't get a response.

Yeah. I wrote him a letter saying, "I expect a little better from you. I don't expect to see this kind of grandstanding and taking credit for something you at best were a marginal player in."

Mhm. Yeah.

All right. What do you think?

I think it's a four. I I only hear him talking maybe a couple time. He sounds very intentional, very deliberate. Everything he wants to say, I get it. So four maybe the one is no is real stuff kind of yeah maybe can't be too obvious or something.

Yeah I'll give him a four as well. I think he is really good at uh crafting his message and you know he's he's very well spoken and when he give a speech you're going to feel like you know he's like u performing some sometimes looks like Obama you know. Mhm.

All right. For coalition growth, uh, Governor Newsome.

Well, here, you know, I don't I don't see Newsome really growing the coalition. I think if I were to redo this dimension for the Democrats, it's regaining the coalitions they've had in the past.

I I would give Newsome a three here. I I think I don't see I think it's going to be difficult for him to reach groups that have not been traditionally part of uh the Democratic circle. So if we if that's how we're defining coalition growth, I don't think he would be the best in this category.

Do you think he can win the blue wall? Because like that's Biden's coalition, you know, in 2020. Biden win

Yes. and he would have to win the blue wall. He He's going to have to shed a little of the leftist California image and and and

get down to where people are and talking about, you know, I you I've studied a lot of presidential elections. I've taught courses on presidential elections and I see a lot of I I wasn't alive at that time. I'm old, but not this old. I see a lot of 1948

here where the Democrats have to go back to their roots to farmers, to labor, to Catholics, to Jews, and and now, you know, you have the LGBTQ community that they need to maintain. You have to have messaging that recaptures those uh constituencies that by and large the Democrats have been losing as the Republicans have branded themselves the party of the common person.

Yeah, I totally agree. I think the problem for Democrat is like they play so much with the identity politics and they forgot all the you know the union the labor the farmers the the blue collar workers who really like support Democrat in the past

right

yeah I mean what do you think

I think it's for same reason for the number number one category it's all about eyeball he's doing a lot of eyeballing and got a lot of coverage and just all about fighting in fighting fighting and when people see someone who willing to fight just like okay maybe he's fighting for something good you know for the for the lower like lower information people were like oh he's fighting must be something good kind of thing

yeah I think that that could be that's an interesting argument because like if you think about a lot of uh low information voter right so they just like doesn't pay attention to politics and when they turn on some podcast it's and Gavin Newsome was there. Oh, that that's a guy I heard about him talking. He seems smart. Like I'll just like vote him. That could happen.

He also predict that 2028 Trump if Trump running for 2028, he will be the best one to fight because he already say fight that that very idea. Now Obama because Obama doesn't say anything about fighting right now.

Okay.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So four you get bigger.

Yeah. Um, I I'm kind of torn about this score. I'll give him a three. I think uh I definitely see the argument Yellow Bane is making, but I just still don't know if a governor from California could win the blue wall. Like the he just looked too elite, you know? Yeah,

Biden was the last Democrat candidate who win the blue war. You know, Hillary lost, Kamla lost, right? So, um, yeah, I give him a three here.

forc professor.

Yeah, this is tough. I I'll probably give her a three as well. I I see most of the Democrats similar as well in coalition growth. Although with AOC, I think she has one of the better chances of crafting arguments that are going to reach rank and file workers. I I think that she just has a nice way of positioning her arguments that can break through some of the labeling and say, "Does this make sense to you?"

And, you know, hit people with statistics on income inequality, hit people with statistics on healthcare, and and say, you know, we need you back. We want you to return cuz traditionally this has been your home.

I I I see her between a three and a four here.

Mhm. You know what I mean? What do you think?

I say two. I I don't see a lot of message change. If you like AOC before, you still like her. If you don't like AOC, you won't change for Gavin News is fighting harder. AOC from the beginning was hiding at the maximum like all the words all the saying you cannot go any worse to fight Trump. So you just not gonna join AOC if you didn't join her before

too.

I'm going to give her a four. The reason is I see the populist movement in America is getting bigger and bigger. the tide.

I think uh you know GOP has been taken over by the populist movement. It's time for the Democrat party been taken over. Uh Zar Mandani is your signal there. So I think DOC

if she can build a strong coalition across the blue collar group, the progressive and she can win some of the senators voter who voted for Trump in uh you know 2016 or uh 2024 and who voted for Biden in 2020. So I think that's that's a group she can win back for the Democrat party unlike Newsome. You know, I think AOCC's message could connect with them particularly when they become disillusioned with Trump's policy like with the big beautiful bill take away their health care and take away their food stamps.

That could be a problem.

Well said. Well said.

May I pit professor?

Uh I probably will go through here as well. I I think there's potential there. Uh we've already talked about some of his liabilities.

Um but he he can craft I think the possibility of him getting on the stages that could give him the opportunity to connect with people he hasn't quite connected with in the past. I think that possibility exists. I think he would take advantage of those opportunities, but I still would rate him a three.

Yam, what do you think?

Have to copy professor's answer. Don't know much about him.

So, watch video. Yeah.

Okay. I'll give him a two. I think he will be really struggling with people with color and the working class unlike. Actually, I forgot to mention like ALC is very popular with Latinos, you know. Uh so that's another thing Maya Pete doesn't have. I just think like

right

he had he will be having a lot of trouble trying to convince the African-Americans voter to come out and vote for him getting excited for him. That's going to be tough. So I give him a two. Kla Harris. Uh,

I would give her a three as well. Uh, and that's a generous three. I just feel like she had her shot. It didn't work. She may be a better candidate next time. Um,

but her ability I I think that she's a bit polarizing and I think that she was, you know, she was muddied a lot with, you know, the the 60 Minutes issue and just her ability to craft uh messages and and I just think she's a little bit of damaged goods here

and that's going to be tough for her to grow a coalition.

Yan Bing,

I'll give her one. Number one reason I don't think she wants to glow the coalition cuz during the presidency she doesn't even try much. I think if if you give you give her

that I don't I don't agree because she apparently tried to reach out to the Republican voter. She has like Dick Cheny's daughter, right? like try to kind of go on a tour, give speech and show. Yeah, she's trying to build a bigger corers.

That's kind of force because you have no option to quit. If she get offer option to quit, I think she will quit.

That's my opinion. So, she doesn't want to grow and she doesn't work hard enough. So, she just A and B together. Just one. She's not gonna get any bigger

unless she try

and I change my opinion.

Yeah, I'll give her a three. I think she uh have a certain, you know, um exposure to the African-American voters and uh people with color. So, that coalition will still come and vote for her. Uh I do agree with Yan Bing like she had a hard time uh you know even winning the Biden's coalition you know apparently she lost to those seven swing state. So

Josh Shapiro professor

uh I will give him a three because I don't think he gets out of the Democratic uh primaries. if he would get out of the Democratic primaries and become the candidate,

he might have the best chance of all of them to broaden the coalition and to Trump voters.

So, if he I I give him a three because I think he will have a hard time getting out of the Democratic primaries. If he does, he's going to grow the coalition.

Yeah.

I'll give him a three because he talk very good. I think the biggest problem just is real.

The biggest problem if somehow he can figure it out then the number will get bigger.

Yeah. Um I'm going to give him a four. I think he is actually quite attractive to the middle voters like uh

whoever I'm not I'm not just thinking about like you know he is definitely in the Democrat party he will have some trouble with a progressive because of the uh Israel Palestinian issue but I think he definitely shows people the possibility of finding someone who care about policy instead of all the drama and the name calling and personal attack. I think he could become uh you know stable for those voters like to vote for uh in 2028.

All right. Money and machinery for Gavin Newsome.

Oh, I think he would have to be a four. I think he will have big donors in support of him. I think he has a strong staff. I think he would he would tap into sort of the Democratic machine quite well. I think I would say four.

You know what I mean? What do you think?

Yeah. The same reason four. There's no question about it.

Mhm.

I'm going him give him a five. I think he is going to raise a lot of money. He's from California. He very rich. He have very rich donors in Democrat party and uh he also have a strong network. So I think he will be raising a lot of money in uh 2028.

Yeah.

Accessor

I think I would give her a three. I think if you compare her to someone like Newsome it's just uh not as strong. I think she would have the support she would get though, these would be passionate supporters. So, I think her machinery could be the most aggressive and and the most loyal uh group maybe we've ever seen. But it's the money I don't think she would get on par with say a news.

Yeah. I mean, what do you think? three

cuz she always talking about hating billionaires. So, she probably can't get too much billionaires. That's why she gets a three.

That's why she gets a three.

Actually, I don't agree with you guys. I think AOC is at least a four. The reason is like I I don't know if you guys track her numbers. She raised a lot of money as a a house member as a you know uh as her current stage she raised more than the person who are ranked much higher than her in the Democrat party. That shows her capability of raising money. You know as mid of 2025 she already raised 15 million dollars.

Yeah. Yeah. That's a wonderful point. I guess what I'm thinking is the bigger donors are going to have to make choices. They're going to spread it around some, but there's I mean, they'll hedge their bets, but they're still going to go all in for some candidates, and I'm not sure she would be perceived as electable to get the kind of money that say a Newsome would get. I mean, that that's my rationale there. You're right. She's very good at raising money. I think for me, uh, she's the Democratic VP candidate. That that that's where I see her.

Mhm.

For Mayor Pete,

I think Mayor Pete would be maybe a two here. I just don't know.

You know, maybe that's a little harsh, but I'm not sure he would. I don't know. I I I think he's a good candidate. Uh, two, maybe a little harsh, but again, I think there's a comparative process here. This one more than any is about comparing the candidates and where he would rank in terms of uh and I the the point you made about Newsome was very very strong. Uh there's only so much of the big money to go around and uh I'm not sure he would be getting the biggest chunk of it. I guess I would say

yeah, what do you think?

I'll give a three with my limited knowledge about him is based on my research research right now I saw him attending podcast quite a lot compared all the other candidate I know Gavin News started a podcast but he didn't do it well I think uh if this mayor P can do a lot more podcast you raise a lot of money

okay

maybe

yeah uh I think I think mayor P is a three uh I think like Gavin News and him Kevin a lot of more money so those voter yeah I agree with professor I think he or AOC are really good vice president candidate to you know to unite the group that you did not cover like those particular identity politics or certain progressive wing you try to kind of lure them into your coalition that's the way to go. Uh, but as a main candidate, that's going to be tough. Camela Harris.

Um, I would give her a three. I I think she will still have a fair number of supporters. She is the person who has run a national campaign and did it recently.

She would have all the ties into the various states that is not to be undersold. I mean, that's significant. Um, but and and let's not let's keep in mind, too, that in some ways, we're talking about how things start. People are going to start to go with front runners. So, what it might look like at the beginning is not necessarily going to be how it plays out. People will jump on a bandwagon. I also am not convinced that the Democratic candidate is one of our five here. Uh I I think there's a good chance that it's going to be a governor from one of the other states. Uh not Shapiro, but someone else. Maybe Kentucky, maybe North Carolina. Um maybe Michigan. I I just feel that it's probably going to be a governor. I think it's going to be someone without a whole lot of baggage that appeal to broad constituencies.

So I think all you know what we're doing is and I think we're doing I think right now if you say who are the top five candidates I would say this is is a very good list. I'm not convinced though of the Democratic candidates one of these five.

Yeah I agree. I think right now I'm just picking the front runners but like again this is like way too early right? It's like three years ahead. A lot of things can change.

Barack Obama came out of nowhere in 2008 right?

Yeah.

Yeah. So, I agree. Yellowing, what do you think?

If this based on 2024, I'll give her a five.

Yeah.

I was watching Trump's video and I got Camaro Harris ad about donating.

But it's going to be one. I don't think anybody will give her money.

Yeah.

All the money is gone and she's even owning some money. So,

well, a lot of people wonder how she spent the last money.

Yeah. For this one, it'll be nobody waiting to give her money. It's like you owe money and you don't pay back. No result. It's over.

Yeah, I agree. I'll give her two. I just have a hard time like for those big donor who gave her a lot of money in 2024, open up the wallet and donate to her again. That's going to be tough. Uh Josh Shapiro, professor.

I I think he will have the ability to to get some money going. I'm I'm gonna give him a four. I think Shapiro will have some big hitters backing him

and u he's he's streetwise. He's an astute politician. He will be able to tap into the Democratic machine effectively.

Yeah. You know what I mean? What do you think?

Oh, he automatically get the AP pack money, right?

Not how it works. Pretty sure he can get money.

Yeah, I I'll give him a four as well. I think he will he'll build a strong uh money machine, you know. He

he elect for the governor twice, right? Like, so he is that twice? I think he already did.

No, he he was elected once. Oh, he will be running for re-election sometime.

Yeah, that's correct. That's correct.

Yeah.

He was attorney general in the state prior to that.

Oh, yeah. Okay. Yeah. But I do think he can uh connect well with all the big donors. So, because he is viewed as, you know, your Democrat establishment. Uh debate skills. Professor,

I would give Nome a four. I think he's uh media savvy.

I think he will be well rehearsed and well coached

and I think he will handle the media effectively.

Yeah, hit on me.

I'll give him a three. I don't think he can handle the the news about his he cheated on his best friend because he's like I have no good response. And the other the other time he was debating the desentes desentes was showing a poop map of San Francisco. He didn't say anything. He's like, "Oh, I don't know what to say." He He need to be a a little bit more like Trump, like a little bit shameless, I guess, or appear to be reformed. Like, I'm complete change, man. That's that's not me. I I don't I don't cheat anymore kind of deal. I guess

if he doesn't do that, he probably not going to win any debate.

I'll give him a four. I think he speak pretty well. He's sharp and uh I think he could put on a show. He's still relative younger, you know, than the last round of the candidate. You have like a 70 years old debating 80 years old, right? It's going to be quite a different situation in the 2028. I give him four.

I think that's kind of good thing though because when when the other guy mentioned he cheated on his best best friend, he just looked very guilty. It's not like, oh, it's okay. No, no big deal. He look he look guilty. He look like just regretting in front of everybody. So I kind of like that kind of.

Okay.

So you think that shows some of the humanity?

Yeah.

Yeah.

She's like maybe maybe a good guy, you know.

Yeah.

AOC professor.

I'm going to give my first five of the evening. I think she's very skilled. I think she I just love how she rebutts arguments. I think she can come back

uh she's um well-versed, I mean well informed and I just think she has a way of getting to root arguments and refuting attacks and other positions. She's a skilled debater.

Mhm. You know what I mean?

I give her a four. I I think uh it's kind of like strong when she when she's debating cuz like avoid the topic that's not good for her and just keep going at whatever she think is right.

Mhm.

It works, I think.

Yeah, I'll give her a five as well. I watched the Netflix documentary about her. she was like debating uh a top ranked Democrat um incumbent and she did very well in that debate. So apparently she put a lot of work and she's very young so your brain functions much faster than you know older people.

Yes.

Yeah. So I give him a Yeah. You know, I feel I feel the age burden as well, professor. Like, don't don't get me wrong, you know.

May I pit professor?

Well, given that I I lumped him with AOC earlier, I think I have to give him a five as well. I I see I I even think back to when he ran for president last time in the debate format. He's very good. Mhm.

He has media savvy. He He maintains his composure. He's not one that gets rattled. And I think that whole grace under fire is part of how we're going to be judging all these candidates. And I think that's something he has.

I agree. Yan Bing, what do you think?

KBY, Professor Asar also look at the podcast. He did a threehour podcast with the flagrant. I I think in the future if you run for president you have to do a threehour conversation

then I can see who you are. You can't really hide for three hours.

Yeah, I'll give him a five as well. He is really good debater. He went on Fox and debating all the conservative uh talking hats. That's uh impressive. I don't think Camel Harris can do that. So,

what do you think about Cameron Harris for this uh part?

It's hard. I'm between a three and a four with her. I think of her debate performance against Trump, which I thought was very strong. Uh but it was, you know, it was it wasn't the predictive of what was going to happen in the campaign and how she used the media. So, I guess if I'm pushed to it, I'd probably give her the three rather than the four.

Uh just because I think I I would hope she would have learned from last time,

but uh that was certainly um disappointing in many ways last time.

Oh, yeah. I agree. You know, I mean, what do you think?

I think it's three. I don't think she's a bad debater.

She just need to be scripted.

Oh, yeah.

Need to be super prepared. If you call her off guard, she's going to be like talking nonsense.

Yeah, I agree with you guys. I'll give her a three as well. I think she did well in the Trump debate, but the problem is like she her media uh media skill is not that great. She fumbled that easy question and she doesn't want to be on those uh podcasts for like uh you know those right-wing ones. She only go to the friendly ones. So that could be a be a problem, you know.

Uh Josh Shapiro, professor,

I'm between a four and a five here. I would probably give him a five. And why it's not a resounding five is I think he has to temper the ambition part of who he is a bit and add a little bit more the humility that comes from the heart. I think he can be too much of a grandstander at times, perceived as too ambitious, and that, you know, while he may have just played, I personally think he would have taken that vice presidential slot if offered. Um,

so I think he's going to have to temper some of his, uh, natural tendencies.

Mhm. You know what I mean? What do you think?

I'll give him a four. I think he's very good at talking whatever topic, but I just got this feeling that he's kind of fake and it's like I don't know how you get the feeling out of people. So, just my personal feeling.

So, four because that feeling.

Yeah, I'm going to give him a five. I think he did very well in debate and uh he could definitely go on those podcast. So uh also I think he want to adopt the new media format like Tik Tok. I think he could be relatable as well. So I give him a five. Uh liability professor for Gavin Newsome.

Yeah. Before I say that, I'm gonna do a little plug for something I have coming up. So I have my own YouTube channel. It's Professor RJ Plleone. Yeah. Communication Excellence. And I hope people would consider a free subscription to that.

Yeah.

I've done uh 20 or 21 videos so far political. Some of them I'm doing and I'm going to be doing one in the next couple of days on how to rebrand the Democratic party and how to limit sort of the risk that may be uh present in in the party in general as the brand seems to be on the downward slope and how to recapture some of it. So enough of the plug uh let me uh answer your question. I don't see uh there's some risk with news and there's some risk with all I I would say so

so so is a high here remind me is a high a poor rating what is is it still the same one to five scale or have we flipped the one to five meaning at this point

so here liability five is very high risk

that's what I thought yeah

all right so for for Newsome I would put him at a three

I think there's risk here I think we kind of know who he is and rightly we've been pointing out some of his communication challenges or his sort of rhetorical pressure points he's going to have to have well-crafted responses for but I would see his liability to be sort of mid-range.

Mhm. Yam, what do you think?

Yeah, same thing. Three I all I hear is he's not faithful to his wife. He didn't manage California too good. And I guess that's not super bad.

I mean, it's bad, but it's not super bad, I guess.

Yeah, I'll give him a three as well. I think he going to get some uh, you know, criticism of how he handled the fire in California and how he use all the money there. There's definitely like people complaining about his uh, governing in California. So, uh, it definitely has some liability. Well,

very good point about the fire though and how that money was handled there. There a lot of Californians are outraged and that would become a major story. You're you're absolutely right.

Exactly.

Um, I would say four here just because of her youth, uh, somewhat inexperience. See, that's why I I'm leaning toward a governor here. You know, a lot of people see the Senate as just a a staging ground for all those who aspire to be president.

Congress is so, you know, performative. It's just almost a joke now. Um, so I think AOC would have there there'd be a certain risk to her candidacy. Yes.

You know, I mean, what do you think?

I would say two.

Mhm. So, I don't see any really like horrible news about her. Just she's not very experienced. She's not very political savvy, I guess, compared to other candidate. But I don't hear any really bad news about her.

Mhm.

Well, she would be uh not to she would be by far the youngest person ever elected. I don't think we've had anyone in their 30s ever. and she would just turn 35. So I do think the risk in itself is an issue for me. The age the age.

Okay. Yeah. For me I think the liability I'll give her a two as well. The reason I say that is like you know she does not take the big corporations money. I don't think she going to have a lot of scandal the other candidate may have like you know go to those paid speeches and like what Hillary Clinton uh was facing at that time. So I think from that perspective um he she would have less risk of those liabilities.

Uh professor for pit what do you think?

I would say a three. I see him similar to to Newsome where we pretty much know who he is. There's risk in diving deep into his record in South Bend. There's risk because of who he is, which is I think unfortunate. Uh I don't share that perspective that that should be a major issue, but I I think it will be one. It's almost like, you know, one of my all-time favorite politicians was Adlay Stevenson, and back then a major reason why he didn't get elected was he was divorced. So these kind of things about one's personal life of have often cropped in and uh I think there's risk with Mayor Pete, too.

Wow. Look at that age. Like you have a candidate who didn't got elected because he's divorced

and now you have the president who have all

how times have changed.

Yeah. Uh that's fascinating. Uh Elami, what do you think?

Um based on what I heard so far, I say four. I think being a homosexual probably a very big liability.

Meaning I I I can understand it's totally okay for someone like pay to be president but probably not according to a lot of right leaning person.

Yeah.

So that's a huge liability I guess.

Yeah. Uh I give him a three as well. I think just like you guys what what you just mentioned um his identity politics could be a problem and uh you know uh there once he become the target like there's a lot of opposition research and something could come out you know he's you know a typical elite candidate and he could have problems come Harris uh

I would say I would say three. I I um you know I just don't know if she's going to generate I I think the comments we made about uh fundraising are real. Uh she had such a a campaign war chest that just they they had campaign strategies that were never implemented. I just I'm just not sure.

I'm not I I think she's been scrutinized uh fairly closely. I don't think there are going to be any surprises, but I do think there would be a certain amount of risk to her candidacy.

Mhm.

Yeah. I mean, what do you think?

I guess I have to uh stay consistent. Five.

Five. Okay. because everything she did in the past becomes a liability because when you hire somebody you look at the past performance

she failed very badly. Would you would you pick someone like that to have a second chance? It's very hard. So for that alone it's a five level liability.

Yeah I think I have a different inter interpretation of the liability uh than you guys. I I think more about like do you have any political scandal? Do you have any major issues that going to cause a certain block of the voters like not coming out to vote for you? For that part, I I will give her a two because from last cycle, the Trump administration was like the Trump team was uh attacking her on some of the issues. I don't see those are big liabilities. I think the reason she lost is not because of the liability she has. Like it's all because of the other stuff she didn't do well. She did not cut clean from Biden and she inherited a lot of u you know the baggage from the the incumbent administration because that current president is not popular. So um

see I view it in part that is what what is the risk to the down ticket in the party too.

So I think some of you know sometime the head of the ticket can really cause senators to lose congressmen to

Oh yeah. Yeah.

And so I see that I in this risk question. That's part of how I'm I'm interpreting it too. Mhm.

Um

I I understand as something that will affect your election. It's not something you do right now. It's something in the past or something you cannot change your sexual orientation, your your inity, that kind of liability.

I guess

so Josh Shapiro professor

I would say it too. I think there's um

I don't if Shapiro would be able to get through the primary process, I don't think there going to be many surprises with him. I think he would be well positioned as a leader of the ticket uh to carry it through. I think he could uh appeal to independent voters. Um but there's there's certainly some risk in in him in this process, you know. Yeah, for sure.

Okay. You know what I mean? What do you think?

I'll say a four. So when I think about this person, it's automatically comes to Israel. So that alone is like a very very big liability. I don't know how you going to change that.

Okay. Uh I'll give him a two as well. Uh I just don't think there will be a lot of uh political scandal against him. He seems like your uh typical u midway mhm politician who have a big exposure to the middle ground uh voters who doesn't like the extremist part candidate from both parties. So

mhm

yeah, I gave him a two. All right, I think we finished all the voting here. Let's look at the weighted basis like the final score uh normalized scoring. Uh the top one is Gavin Newsome 72 average score. The next is Josh Shapiro. The third is AOC Maya Pit and Kamela Harris.

So yeah,

that's a pretty good ranking actually for me. I you know

do you think we see a Gavin Newsome and J Shapiro like ticket? That would be like two alpha males, right? Like

Yeah, I I don't see that. I don't see that.

Yeah,

that that would be they they wouldn't jive together. That that I just don't think so. And I I I think two two white males for the Democrats would be very difficult.

I think uh Gavin Newsen Acc Shapiro Acc.

Yeah.

Yeah. Shapiro AOC. I could see Gavin Newsome. I don't know with a It could be seen as just two left.

Oh, maybe Gavin Newsome was Mayor Pit or other candidate, right? Like we have a second tier candidate.

There's a lot of folks that could, you know, I I also think of this time as I think I mentioned our last one, we got Jimmy Carter after Richard Nixon. Carter had 4% name recognition at the beginning of that campaign. I think some of these governors that are getting in the news primarily because of threats to go into their states with National Guard. I think one of them could emerge as a player here and then you see who goes through the process. I mean, at least the Democrats will have a process this go around. They're going to vet the candidates and you know we're going to have a more in some ways legitimate candidate because they've come through the primary process and have won the votes through the primary process. So I think there'd be more support for whoever it is.

I agree. I think u there's a lot of like really strong governors there but they're just not well known, you know, like have a lot of media coverage. But maybe in uh 2028 uh primary, you could have a very different playground.

Yeah. I mean, I I I don't think I could have named the governor of Illinois. Uh

yeah,

he's certainly been in the news a lot. I didn't know much about Wes Moore until a few months ago.

Sometimes these people and like you pointed out earlier, it's a long way off. I mean, we've got a lot of years here to go.

Yeah. So, right now, I think uh last time I checked, uh those betting market uh the news uh is like 32% of all the probabilities. So, that's a huge bump from a few months ago.

Yeah. I mean, all the polling is showing what he is doing is is getting attention, and for many folks, uh, they're happy he's doing it. Not everyone, for sure. Um,

you know, the MAGA crowd is very enraged by it.

Yeah.

For the Democrats, by and large, it's viewed favorably.

Yeah. I see uh Gavin Newsome 35% 10% for AOC 6% for Westmore uh 6% for Mayor Pit Andy 5% and Kla Harris 5%. Yeah.

See, some of those governors have shown up. Even Whitmer, we didn't talk about her from Michigan. Yeah. John Stewart. Yes. People want John Stewart to run.

Oh, I really want John Stewart. David A. Smith to run. Yeah,

I think John Stew John Stewart could be a good candidate, you know.

I think he's very bright, man.

Uhuh.

Steven Smith 2% here. Steven,

I see The Rock on there, huh?

That's a little bit too much. The Rock.

Yeah, we had Ronald Reagan at one point. So, yeah.

Yeah,

that was

so Yeah. Uh yeah, I think it could be interesting. Uh I would love to see the primary debate like when those guys got on the stage.

So the Republican Republican side uh the other I don't know if you watch the news like uh JD Vance was talking about uh he's ready to become the president if there's something happened to Trump and then there's speculation that Trump is dying which is like a kind of rumor going on.

I don't think there's much to it. He's probably has his health issues. I mean he's an overweight 79year-old. Every overweight 79 year old has science issues.

Yeah.

But I I I I don't know. I think he's I think he's gonna be around.

Okay. Yeah. You see JD Vans is like 53% and uh

Yeah. Tiger Carlson 3%.

Ronda Sanders 3%. Steven Bannon 4%. Wow.

There. Okay. I'm not even going to comment on those numbers.

straight for your favorite candidate, Donald Trump Jr.

I think Vance, again, as we talked about last time,

it all depends on how the Trump administration plays out. If the Trump administration internationally and for pocketbook turns out to be a successful administration, Vance is going to be the front runner and is going to be a formidable candidate. Oh yeah. If if it's like uh if it's like 2008 uh Judge W. Bush GOP, then JD M will be probably buried like

That's right.

Yeah.

All right. So, I think we had the part done. We have a good ranking of all the candidates. Thank you all for recording this podcast. And uh I'm going to do some editing. And uh for all the audience watching this podcast, do not forget to uh subscribe to Professor's channel. It's going to be fun there.

Thank you, Bruce.

Yeah.

Have a good one, everyone. Thank you.

Thank you, Professor. Thank you, Yaning. See you.

Bye.

Bye. Bye.