英伟达财报日:白宫晚宴、沙特万亿投资与谷歌Gemini 3震撼发布 Amit Kukreja 2025-11-19

英伟达财报日来临,市场盘前普涨

大家早上好,欢迎回到“市场开盘”直播。今天正式是英伟达的财报日,因此市场动态非常丰富。值得高兴的是,我们看到了一个普涨的盘前市场,英伟达自身也呈现绿色。

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Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. We are live. I am sorry I am late. I went home last night to celebrate my sister's birthday. And uh I came back this morning. I did not know even though I left two hours early that there would be 14 miles of delays. Like 14 miles of delay. Like I got in the Tesla and it's like you'll get there by 8:50. And I'm like no I should get there by like 7:55 and it's like no there's delays. So yeah it was a lot of traffic on the term. There wasn't even an accident. I mean it was raining. I didn't see the accident if there was an accident. I don't know why there was such heavy delays but we're here. We're live. We got a lot to talk about. Thank you everybody for being here. It is officially Nvidia earnings day. Uh and as a result, we've got obviously a lot going on in the markets. We do have a green pre-market, which is nice to see. Nvidia right here is actually green.

今天早上,英伟达宣布了几项交易。考虑到今天是财报日,他们很可能会公布一些合作伙伴关系和交易。例如,他们今早宣布了与博枫(Brookfield)一项价值千亿美元的合作。此外,还有一些与沙特阿拉伯及中东子公司的新交易,这些公司正在投资人工智能。

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Nvidia announced a couple deals this morning. You're likely going to have some partnerships and some deals that are announced based on the fact that it is their earnings today. And they announced something with Brookfield this morning, a hundred billion dollar partnership. There's also some new deals with Saudi Arabia and the Middle Eastern subsidiaries that are investing in AI.

盘前,英伟达股价为184美元,希望这股势头能持续一整天。标普500指数上涨约0.29%。昨天市场收红,标普在低点时曾下跌约1%。整个市场显然都在等待英伟达的财报,看他们能否交出亮眼的数字。

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You got Nvidia right there 184 in the pre-markets. Uh and hopefully that momentum continues throughout the entire day. S&P 500 is up about 0.29%. We were red yesterday by about 1% of the S&P at the lows we got to 655 closed at 660. Still was an ugly day. Robin Hood up a little bit in the pre-markets. Pounder's up about 1%. Microsoft's down a little bit. Amazon's up a little bit. Bit mine's up about half a percent. Nebus did buy the dip on Nebus yesterday. It's up about 2% in the pre-markets. Open Door is down half a percent. Meta back below 600 again. The pre-market's at 597 and you got Bitcoin right there at 91.2. I think the entire market is obviously waiting for Nvidia and we're going to see what they say. We're going to see if they can have good numbers.

财报要成功,首先数字要好,这是第一步。其次,业绩指引必须非常出色,这是第二步。之后,还需要美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的配合,才能巩固年底的涨势。所以,今天对英伟达来说是至关重要的一天,他们必须表现出色。从我看到的所有数据来看,他们似乎会表现得很好,但问题在于,这种“好”是否足以让市场兴奋起来。

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We got a lot to go through in terms of what the implications of the numbers could look like. But if the numbers are good, that is the first step to a successful earnings. Then the guidance has to be really good. That is the second step. Uh, and then after that, you need some help by Mr. Jerome Powell and the Fed to kind of solidify the end of year run if we are to get it. So, it's a big day for Nvidia. They've really got to execute. And from everything I've looked at, and we'll look at a lot of different numbers, it really does feel like they're going to execute well, but the question is just going to be how well is it enough to get the market to be excited.

白宫晚宴:科技巨头与沙特的万亿投资承诺

说到英伟达,其CEO黄仁勋昨晚出席了白宫的一场盛大晚宴。出席者包括David Sacks、OpenAI总裁Greg Brockman和埃隆·马斯克。黄仁勋与这些亿万富翁们在白宫相聚,很可能在财报发布前讨论了人工智能。我希望这是个利好消息。

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Now, speaking of Nvidia, Jensen was at the White House last night. Apparently, there was this big White House dinner and I knew there was a dinner. I don't know how important the dinner was. Um, but you got David Saxs, Greg Brockman, president of OpenAI, Elon Musk. Look at those shoes that Elon's wearing. I mean, those are trillionaire shoes, dude. That's kind of crazy. Uh, and then you got Mr. Jensen Hong. So, Jensen kind of chilling out with all the billionaires in the White House, likely talking AI uh before earnings. I I I think it's bullish. I would hope it's bullish, but We are we're going to find out.

昨晚,特朗普总统在白宫欢迎了沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼。总统正式指定沙特阿拉伯为美国的主要非北约盟友(Major non-NATO ally: 美国授予紧密战略关系但非《北大西洋公约》成员国的国家的一种身份),使其与澳大利亚、日本和韩国等国处于同等地位。晚宴嘉宾阵容鼎盛,包括苹果的蒂姆·库克、特斯拉的埃隆·马斯克、英伟达的黄仁勋、投资人比尔·阿克曼以及足球巨星克里斯蒂亚诺·罗纳尔多。

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Here's an update on what happened last night with Trump and the Saudi crown prince who was at the White House. >> Damon Javs joins us now uh with the headlines and a recap of of the menu. >> Yeah, good morning Joe. President Trump welcomed Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman to the White House with literal open arms on Tuesday, treating him to a South arrival ceremony with a military band, mounted honor guard, and fighter jet flyover. Then in the East Room last night, the president toasted the de facto Saudi ruler with an elegant dinner and glittering guest list, including Apple's Tim Cook, Tesla's Elon Musk, Nvidia's Jensen Wang, investor Bill Aman, and global soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo. Now, the president said he was officially designating Saudi Arabia a major non-NATO ally of the United States, putting that Arab nation in the same category as Australia, Japan, and South Korea, among others.

特朗普总统在祝酒词中强调了沙特承诺的重大投资协议。沙特阿拉伯宣布将投资高达6000亿美元,后来王储更是承诺将投资额提升至1万亿美元。这笔巨额投资将为美国创造大量就业机会。

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And in his toast, the president highlighted the major investment deals he said the Saudis had committed to. >> Saudi Arabia announced that it will invest an incredible $600 billion dollars. That means jobs. That means jobs. It's also good for your companies, but I'm only interested in the jobs for your country. I'm not interested in the profits, but I guess the profits are there, too. But $600 billion in the United States. And today I said any way you can up that? And he said I am going to up that to $1 trillion. So he's investing $1 trillion into the United States.

这场晚宴标志着沙特领导人全面重返国际外交舞台。此前,因《华盛顿邮报》专栏作家贾迈勒·卡舒吉被沙特特工谋杀一案,他一度成为国际社会的“贱民”。今天,总统预计将出席在肯尼迪中心举行的美沙投资论坛,继续强调两国深厚的金融联系。

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Now the evening marked a return to full diplomatic standing for the Saudi leader who had become an international pariah for the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Kosigible by Saudi agents. A killing the CIA concluded was ordered by bin Salman himself. President Trump disputed that in the Oval Office on Tuesday, arguing that bin Salman knew nothing about the murder. Things happen, President Trump said. Now, today we're expecting the president to attend the US Saudi investment forum at the Kennedy Center and continue to highlight the deep financial ties between the two countries. And guys, uh they have an all-star list of business executives coming to that Kennedy Center event today. So, we'll watch for any news out of that one throughout the day. Back over to you.

昨晚的晚宴可谓众星云集,除了之前提到的嘉宾,还有Palantir的CEO Alex Karp、Robinhood的Vlad Tenev以及Coinbase的CEO Brian Armstrong。美国政府此举旨在庆祝沙特承诺的这1万亿美元投资。这对英伟达显然是利好消息,因为目前英伟达的财报更新中尚未包含任何中东地区的芯片销售。看起来,在下个季度内,黄仁勋就能宣布来自沙特、卡塔尔等国的收入正式进账。

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Apparently Elon's going to be at that conference. Uh Karp might be at the conference. Conf. Karp was at the dinner last night. I mean, there were a lot of people at the dinner last night. Dude, Ronaldo, because of the World Cup uh ties with the United States, was there. As you can see, there's a selfie with Ronaldo and Elon and uh Lutnik and uh Saxs. And it's it's kind of just crazy how important this dinner was last night. But uh you had Karp there, you had Vlad and Coinbase CEO um Brian Armstrong there as well. I mean, I I I knew it was an important dinner. I don't know like everyone would be there, but apparently everyone was there. You got Benny off as well. So, it was one of those events uh where the United States was essentially trying to commemorate this $1 trillion of dollars that the Saudis are basically committing towards investments. I think one of the reasons this is obviously bullish for Nvidia is because right now a lot of Nvidia's updates do not have any of the Middle Eastern chip sales. They don't have any of the China sales and they're likely not going to get that for the foreseeable future. But the Middle East stuff should happen pretty quickly. I mean, it looks like within the next quarter, Jensen's going to be able to say that we officially have Middle East revenue coming in uh from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc., and a lot of these other different countries that want to buy their chips. Remember, for the past four years, the Biden administration basically made it impossible for Nvidia to sell um to the Middle East.

英伟达财报前瞻:估值与市场预期

期权市场预计英伟达的市值将有3000亿美元的波动,这意味着股价大约有7%的变动。关于英伟达的一些有趣数据:今年以来,该股上涨了35%,但其远期市盈率(Forward PE: 基于未来盈利预期的市盈率,用于评估股票估值)从31倍降至29.5倍。这意味着,由于其强劲的业绩增长,股票在上涨的同时变得更便宜了。

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Now, again, the price action on Nvidia is going to be the price action that goes up and down in a very volatile way. In terms of how the street is thinking of it, there is a $300 billion market cap move for Nvidia. $300 billion market cap move for Nvidia, which is basically implying um a 7% move on the options market. 330 billion would be the market cap. Now, some stats about Nvidia that's really interesting to look at uh as we get into their earnings. First of all, the stock this year is up 35%. their forward PE has fallen from 31 to 29.5 even with the 35% gain meaning the stock is getting cheaper as it goes up based on the idea of or based on the actual reality of their numbers being as strong as they are. So that's very bullish to see and if they can you know pull up with even better numbers today then the stock hopefully will continue to get cheaper.

第三季度的营收预期为548亿美元,同比增长57%;数据中心业务收入预计为490亿美元,同比增长60%。毛利率方面,如果能超过73.7%将是一个巨大的惊喜。每股收益(EPS: Earnings Per Share,衡量公司盈利能力的关键指标)预计为25美元。而非官方的耳语数据(Whisper numbers: 指非官方的、在分析师和投资者之间流传的盈利预测,通常高于官方预期)则预计营收将达到618亿美元。

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Q3 estimates are 54.8 billion that would be 57% year-over-year growth up 17% quarter- quarter. Data center is 49 billion that's up 60% year-over-year. gross margins if they somehow beat 73.7. They did say about the latter half of the year they would get closer to the mid70s. Um, so I think that's where there could be a very big surprise if they come in at like 75. They used to be at 77 a year and a half ago. Now I'm not expecting that. 73 for a hardware company would still be amazing, but if they can beat that number, that would be amazing. And then EPS25. The whisper numbers are 61.8 billion.

华尔街普遍预计英伟达会表现出色。有一家公司甚至建议在财报前以180至185美元的价格买入,足见其信心。然而,除了英伟达自身的业绩,我们还需要降息和美联储更为宽松的政策。关于AI泡沫的论调依然存在,黄仁勋可能需要再次出面平息围绕GPU折旧的争论,这可能是他被问及最多的问题。

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Streets expecting for Q4 gross margin of 74.5% EPS of A143. and then data centers of $55 billion. If Nvidia can beat the numbers you're seeing right here on the screen, which they're expected to beat in a pretty significant way, and pretty much every analyst report that I've read over the past 24 hours says, "We expect Nvidia to really do a good job." I mean, there was one firm that literally said, "You should buy Nvidia at 180 to 185 before the earnings because we're that confident that Nvidia is going to have such a strong quarter," which, you know, maybe they do and the stock still tanks. you have a lot of the Wall Street guys feeling very very bullish about what's going to happen with Nvidia. Uh if that's the case then, you know, hopefully this is a good quarter and hopefully the street likes it, but outside of just Nvidia's quarter, we need these rate cuts and we need the Fed to be a little bit more uh accommodative to what's going on. The sentiment around the AI bubble is still there. I don't think we're out of the woods in terms of people thinking it's not a bubble, but Nvidia making sure to solidify that the growth is real, the growth is coming. Jensen kind of calming everyone down again around this whole GPU depreciation debate which is probably going to be the number one question he's asked about. You got Michael Burry tweeting even more things this morning about depreciation expenses in the context of BYU do uh that will be very important and that will hopefully calm down the stream.

谷歌Gemini 3发布,AI竞赛白热化

昨天谷歌发布了Gemini 3,其性能超越了所有基准测试,赢得了业界普遍赞誉,连埃隆·马斯克和Sam Altman都表示了赞赏。这让谷歌股价在历史高位附近再次上涨。最令人印象深刻的是,Gemini 3是在谷歌自家的TPU(Tensor Processing Unit: 张量处理单元,谷歌为加速机器学习任务特别是神经网络运算而设计的专用芯片)上训练的,这让人们开始重新审视谷歌在硬件领域的实力。

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Let's talk about Google. Gemini 3 was announced yesterday. We covered this a little bit on the market close and my goodness, I mean, it is beating every single benchmark. Sundar is really having his moment. You've got pretty much universal praise around what's going on with Gemini. And I mean, quite frankly, he's making me want to buy this thing at all-time highs. 282 you have right there on Google. That's up 1.4%. The most impressive thing to me about Gemini 3 is that it was trained um on Google's TPUs. And as a result of it being trained on Google's TPUs, you've got a lot of people starting to question, you know, how strong is Google in the hardware business based on the TPUs that they have been able to use to get the types of benchmarks that they're getting.

与GPT-5或Claude Sonnet等模型相比,Gemini 3的性能数据是它们的数倍。这再次引发了关于AI泡沫的讨论。如果产品本身足够优秀,用户采纳率持续走高——Gemini月活用户已达6.5亿,谷歌AI搜索日活用户达20亿——并且能够成功变现,那么谷歌将大获全胜。

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As you can see right here on the screen, I mean, these numbers are just absolutely phenomenal. And if you look at it, not only on a year-over-year improvement from Gemini 2.5, but compared to something like GPT51 or Claude Sonnet, I mean, the numbers are double or triple those other models. There hasn't been a comparison of Grock, at least not in this one. Grock 4.1 did come out yesterday as well. But my goodness, my goodness, you had Elon, you had Sam Alman, everyone just gives some praise to Google last night. Uh because, you know, when you come out with a product that's that good, you deserve it. And I think it really begs the question again, this idea of an AI bubble. If the products are just that good and the user adoption is as strong as a Gemini at 650 million monthlies and and and two billion daily uh Google AI search overview users, like if that continues to accelerate and then it continues to get monetized because the product is just that good that people are willing to pay the 20 bucks a month, $200 a month or engage with the advertisements in those products, um Google's going to win and they're going to win at a profound level.

谷歌的优势在于其庞大的分销网络和用户数据。他们拥有你的搜索历史、邮件和文档,这使得他们的LLM(Large Language Model: 大型语言模型,如GPT-4或Gemini,是当前AI技术的核心)服务比其他产品更具粘性。

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I think it is part of the reason why Birkshshire took their stake. I mean, at the end of the day, they are a toll booth for the entire world's attention with their advertising model, and they have so many other different bets that they're going for. And now that they have the distribution, if they introduce a new model, I mean, I am not loyal to a specific LLM. Like, I recently signed up for Claude because it was giving me some better results, but if Gemini gives me better results, I'll cancel Claude and go to Gemini. Like, there really is no stickiness unless the product itself is that good. The one thing about Google that could be more sticky than the other products in the LLM game is that they have all your data. And so if they know your search history, if they have your emails, if they have your Google Docs and all that's incorporated, it's a very very very exciting uh ecosystem that Google is is going for. So I think it's bullish. I think it makes a lot of sense and obviously Google's getting the praise that they do deserve.

AI泡沫辩论:资本支出与估值之争

然而,纽约大学教授Aswath Damodaran并不认为谷歌是好的买入选择。他认为除了苹果之外,所有“科技七巨头”都处于泡沫之中,因为它们投入了巨额的资本支出(Capex: Capital Expenditure,指公司用于购买、维护或升级固定资产的资金),而他怀疑这些支出的投资回报率(ROI: Return on Investment)能否兑现。

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Now someone doesn't believe that Google is a buy right now and he doesn't believe the other Mac 7s are a buy outside of Apple. Dean evaluations awat the more capex they spend the more cautious I become. If you're planning to buy them, it's not a great time. The only one I would say to buy is Apple. It's the most cautious of these companies. This statement got a lot of attention yesterday because basically he's saying again that every single Mac 7 outside of Apple is in a bubble. And the only reason Apple's not in a bubble is because they're not spending tremendous amounts of capex. Aka he's discounting the capex that Google, Amazon, Meta, etc. is spending because he doesn't think the ROI from that capex is going to be there.

他的论点似乎有些教条。仅仅因为谷歌投入了1000亿美元的资本支出,而苹果只投入了30亿,就断定谷歌处于泡沫中,这逻辑很奇怪。恰恰是这些投资,才可能让谷歌的增长速度超过苹果。这种观点在媒体中制造了大量关于“AI是假的、是泡沫”的恐慌。

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And you know, people thought there was more nuance to his argument. There really isn't. I mean, we listened to the whole thing yesterday. The the the extent of the argument that I heard was Sam Alman couldn't give an answer to Brad Gersonner about the ROI. Therefore, he is concluding that every MAG7 is overspending and as a result, the unit economics are not going to make any sense in the long term when they try to monetize this stuff and eventually there will be a day of reckoning when everything collapses. The only way to uh to hedge against that is to buy Apple because you know Apple doesn't spend on capex. So, I found out last night in the comments based on what a lot of people said. Chad said he's in an academic bubble. That's what it feels like based on these comments. Apparently, he called Uber overvalued at a $17 billion valuation. He called Invidia overvalued at 33. He said he dumped all of his Apple back in 2012. He wrote an article. I mean, there's just a lot of different screenshots I've seen that I didn't really know about of this guy. Like, this is February 6, 2024. All the Mac 7 looks overpriced. I mean, pretty much every Mac 7 since then has done very well. Google's basically doubled. Um, it's quite incredible to kind of see the the the extent of the argument. So, I I would chalk it up to someone who is stuck in his form of thinking, which is not necessarily a bad form of thinking, but nonetheless, it is a bit more dogmatic in the context of the current market environment that we're in. And I don't want to discount him. He's an NYU professor. He's been doing this for a long time. He obviously understands valuations. But I just like logically we're going to discount Google and say Apple's a better buy even though Apple's trading at a higher multiple than Google. They're not growing faster than Google anywhere. EPS revenue adjusted EBIDA nothing. But Apple spending three billion on capex, Google spending 100 billion on capex. Therefore, Google spending 100 billion means that it should be discounted as a bubble given you know quite frankly one of the reasons Google's growing faster than Apple might be because they invested 100 billion in capex and many hundreds of billions over the past couple years. Whereas Apple did nothing. Apple's making iPhone fanny packs for people to, you know, usher in the new age of innovation for how you hold in your iPhone. I mean, the idea that you would discount Google simply because they're not they're spending more on capex, I don't know, to me is weird. It's very very very weird. And so I I think but but the reason I'm highlighting this because you have people like him in the media that are causing a lot of fear around the fact that AI is fake and it's all a bubble. And when you and when when when you kind of dissect the extent of their arguments, some of their arguments might have some validity to it in terms of being healthily skeptical about, but then other times you're just like really like that's the analysis. Apple doesn't spend capex, therefore buy Apple. It's weird. It's very very weird. But nonetheless, those are some of the arguments that are out there and I think the market is trying to grapple with how to navigate a lot of those different arguments.

基础设施建设:AI革命的坚实后盾

现实情况是,这些科技巨头的盈利增长非常出色,这正是因为它们在基础设施和数据中心上进行了投资。这些投资的回报率正在显现,目前已达到10%到15%,未来几年如果能接近20%到30%,回报将非常可观。

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Chad says you should pay attention with real when reality doesn't match data. Yeah. And you know the the reality of a lot of the earnings that we've seen have only increased in terms of the earnings growth which again max 7 earnings growth has been pretty exceptional outside of Tesla because of the investments they made in infrastructure and data centers and the reality of what they've been investing we are seeing the ROI the ROIC the you know return on investing capital is not like 70 or 80%. but it's getting to 10 to 15% and over the coming years if that gets anywhere near 20 to 30% you are going to have a meaningful return on those investments which is going to match up to the reality of those earnings.

数据中心建设并非泡沫的另一个证据是,美国政府昨天向Constellation Energy Group提供了10亿美元贷款,用于重启宾夕法尼亚州的一座核电站。此举是为了满足AI数据中心巨大的电力需求。最大的瓶颈不是芯片,而是能源。政府的投资表明,这种基础设施建设是真实且必要的。

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Speaking of investments this is where you are starting to get a lot more confirmation that this data center buildout is probably not a bubble. The United States government yesterday gave a loan to Constellation Energy Group of a billion dollars to restart a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania. Why does this matter? Number one, I know, you know, people freak out sometimes when the US government gets involved and we give out loans and, you know, it feels like we're kind of bailing companies out and stuff like that. That's not what's happening here. In my opinion, what's happening here is a very, very strategic investment by Chris Wright, the secretary of the energy department in the United States to basically say if we're going to build out all these data centers, if we're actually going to give all these companies a chance to fight and compete and be relevant in the age of AI, they're going to need power. I mean, the biggest thing we've heard, same thing from Satiendell a couple weeks ago, is that we don't have enough power and we need energy for compute. He even said chips are not the issue. We have enough chips, we don't have enough energy. Constellation rate, they're up 2%. Um, in order to build out these data centers and also not have regular people in Pennsylvania pay double their electricity bill every month, we need more energy. And in order to have that energy, you need a lot of more investments in infrastructure into that energy and into the United States. And so the US government giving a billion dollar loan, which you know a billion dollars is a couple pennies for the United States. I mean we spend a lot more than a billion on stuff that's pretty useless to allow these companies to build out their infrastructure again to me shows it's not as much of a bubble as people think.

这与互联网泡沫时期不同。当时我们有大量未被使用的暗光纤(Dark fiber: 已铺设但尚未使用的光纤电缆,在互联网泡沫时期因过度投资而闻名)。而现在,每一个GPU都被立即投入使用,从自动驾驶到企业工作流,再到各种AI模型,这些应用都还处于复合增长的早期阶段。

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I mean again one of the arguments for why the com was a bubble is because we had all this dark fiber 97% of it that wasn't used. There was no amount of ads that Yahoo could sell in 2000 that could justify that investment. and therefore all the circular financing came to collapse and you know the telecom buildout made no sense in this case. I mean the fact that the government has to give a billion dollar loan and they're probably going to do a lot more of these loans to companies just to build out the energy to get the data centers to power up because every GPU is being used as soon as possible in a variety of use cases right Whimo FSD enterprise workflows chatbt Gemini anthropic etc. All of these things that are just at the early innings of their compounding effect means we need more energy. And if we need more energy, we're obviously going to need a lot more buildout.

循环融资:泡沫信号还是明智投资?

另一个重要新闻是,博枫(Brookfield)、英伟达和科威特投资局宣布了一项价值1000亿美元的全球AI基础设施项目合作。当主权财富基金和大型投资公司投入千亿级别的资金时,很难再说这是一个泡沫。他们期望从这笔投资中获得回报、建设基础设施并创造就业。

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Uh look at the data center deal with Brookfield. Yeah, so that was actually the next topic right here. Referenced it early in the morning. Uh this was also incredibly important. So and I think this was one of the reasons why Nvidia was up this morning. Brookfield and Nvidia along with the Kuwait Investment Authority are announcing a $100 billion partnership for a global AI infrastructure program. The program will be anchored by the Brookfield AI infrastructure fund which launched today with commitments of five billion from our institutional strategic partners as well as Brookfield. We will acquire up to a 100 billion of AI infrastructure assets deploying investment across every stage of the value chain from energy and land to data centers and compute. This was announced by Brookfield in collaboration with Kuwait, uh, Kuwait's Investment Authority and Nvidia. Now, this is pretty obvious and this was going to happen. Uh, we we've had a bit of teasing of this when Jensen talked about this a couple months ago on the earnings call, so it makes sense that is officially taking place. Obviously, they're announcing it today because we've got earnings coming up. So, uh, Nvidia would want to get this news out there. But again, when people say it's a bubble, it's like, okay. But you've got other countries at this point partnering with investment firms along with Nvidia to deploy a hundred billion dollars. And again, are they throwing out a hundred billion for for funds? It's like no, they expect an ROI on this hundred billion. They expect some level of return. They expect infrastructure. They expect to create jobs, etc. Like I don't know. If you look at all this and you say it's a bubble, the question then becomes, you have to think that none of this 100 billion is going to have any level of relevance.

昨天,英伟达、微软和Anthropic宣布合作,微软和英伟达将投资Anthropic,而Anthropic将向微软Azure购买300亿美元的计算能力。这引发了关于“循环融资”的担忧。这种模式确实是循环的,但关键问题在于,Anthropic能否利用这些计算能力产生独立的外部需求和收入。

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And I mean I would imagine that 100 billion is going to matter in some capacity going and and this goes back to the circular argument we saw yesterday. So obviously the big headline yesterday was Nvidia, Microsoft and Anthropic are going to be doing this partnership where Anthropic will get an investment from Microsoft Nvidia and Anthropic is going to be buying 30 billion of compute from Azure. thought a lot about this last night around hey you know is this a bubble as soon as this headline or is this a circular uh sort of argument around data center financing that ends up leading to some cataclysmic bubble because that was kind of the gut reaction that a lot of people had yesterday and my conclusion just based on trying to be really logical about it is I don't understand why people are freaking out about this if and this is the if this is this is the $350 billion if as per anthropics new valuation if Enthropic has independent demand outside of um the compute constraints they have with Nvidia and Microsoft aka if Enthropic is buying 30 billion of Azure compute capacity and then Azure is going to be buying Nvidia chips and Nvidia is investing in Enthropic to be able to buy the Azure compute capacity is that a circle of course but if Enthropic is going to use that 30 billion of Azure compute which indirectly is using the whatever amount of billions of chips that Nvidia will be buying from Microsoft to run those cloud AI workloads to then generate revenue aka an ROI on the compute capacity that they are contracting with Microsoft.

这与互联网泡沫时期的根本区别在于,当时没有足够的独立需求来支撑巨额投资。而现在,问题在于你是否相信这些AI模型公司能够创造出足够的需求。如果你相信AI的未来,那么这种短期的循环融资就是创造长期价值的必要过程。

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Same thing with OpenAI and their partnerships with uh Broadcom, AMD, Amazon, etc. Then why is it some circle that everyone is so afraid about? Like the the the reason in the dotcom bubble that didn't make any sense is because there was no independent demand, enterprise or consumer, that could ever make up for the level of investment that was being put into place. In this case, it's still a question if a lot of these model companies are going to be able to have that demand. But that's where you have to make a decision as investor. Do you think that these companies are important enough? Do you think Whimo is important enough? Do you think FSD is important enough? Do you think robotics matter enough? Do you think Gemini is important enough? Do you think, you know, Claude in the enterprise is going to scale fast enough where they can generate those hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue as per Sam Alman and then be able to deploy it in a meaningful way? And you know that that that's a question of do you believe in AI and if you do believe in AI then I think there's a lot of implications for that but that doesn't have to be a circle and in the middle in the short term is it circular financing yes but like a lot of things are circular in nature the entire economy is circular that's how value is created in the long term is that circularity necessary to generate returns and I think that's what Jensen's saying.

微软高管对此解释说,他们投资OpenAI和Anthropic是为了帮助这些公司成长,并为客户提供模型多样性。他们认为这些公司有独立的业务增长需求,因此这种投资是合理的。摩根大通也发布了一份长达65页的报告,阐述了AI革命的投资框架,他们对此非常看好。

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They're basically saying look these companies need investment. We have the capital so we are going to deploy that capital into these companies. Yes, these companies are also our customers, but they have independent demand outside of the compute needs. They they um have to to contract with us because they're growing businesses and that's why we're making the investments. Like it's not that crazy when you listen to it. I understand the headlines make it feel like it's completely circular, but um if you believe these companies are going to actually be able to create value long term, I think the broader question is not is it circular or not? Like obviously it's circular. It's the question of will these companies be able to create value over the next 10 years? The anthropics, the GPTs of the world, etc. And if they are, then these these investments are going to turn out to be really strong investments. And by the way, um JP Morgan thinks so as well. So JP Morgan, I'm going to leave the link right here in the chat for anyone who wants to read this. I' I've read through a little bit of it, but not the entirety of it. JP Morgan put out a 65page document yesterday around why the AI revolution is happening, how to have uh a process and a framework for investing in this revolution, how to think about it geographically, how to think about capex spend, etc. And then sort of a structural shift that's happening in the economy that's important for every investor to understand.

市场回调:健康调整还是风险信号?

那么,为什么过去几周股市表现不佳?在经历了连续六个月的上涨后,11月份标普500指数下跌4%其实是一个非常健康和正常的调整。这并不是一次大规模的回调。问题在于,这次下跌感觉很剧烈,是因为许多高贝塔系数的股票从高点大幅回落。

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So the question then becomes why are we down, right? Why has the stock market been ugly over the past couple of weeks? And and I was talking about this yesterday and the market closed and I hate to say it, but it's like it's it's it's what kind of had to happen for this to be more natural, right? Like if we moonshot it to 72 7,300 right now on November 19th, I think a lot of us would be happy obviously because our portfolios would up, but also a lot of us would be like, dude, this is like really quick. like this is just like we you know this is happening at a pace that probably isn't natural to happen especially given the past six months were green including October even with the choppiness of October we have we were up two and a half% uh and so November we're down 4% is that crazy to be down 4% in November after six months of no it feels like I hate to say but it feels very healthy it feels like very normal to have Nvidia not up 57% year-to date but to be up 38% year to date like the S& P is up 14% instead of 18%. That is not some scary thing to deal with. It's just the fact that we had a month of like really really big highs with a lot of these names that are now down severely from those highs. A lot of those being high beta names. Um that's why it feels aggressive. But this is not like some massive correction. I mean this is like 4% down on the S&P. I mean we went through that plenty of times in 23 and 24. It's just 2025. Ever since April, we had so much uh uh aggressive moves to the upside that it's hard to imagine that we would have a 4% draw down. Nonetheless, it's a 4% draw down.

现在的问题是,我们能否迎来一份好的英伟达财报和一次好的美联储会议,从而开启年底的反弹行情。未来几周的数据将为我们揭晓答案。

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So now the question is, can we get a good Nvidia earnings? Can we get a good Fed meeting? Can this stuff start to resolve itself? and uh we end up having this end of year rally, but over the coming weeks, I guess we're going to get a lot more of that data and see if it plays out.

其他市场动态

  • 特斯拉:获得了亚利桑那州的许可,可以在公共道路上扩展其自动驾驶出租车服务。
  • 拉里·萨默斯:因与爱泼斯坦的邮件往来曝光,已正式从OpenAI董事会辞职。美国国会已通过法案,要求公布完整的爱泼斯坦文件。
  • 劳动力市场:根据克利夫兰联储的数据,10月份有39600名美国人收到了提前裁员通知,这是自2020年疫情以来的第二高水平。这表明劳动力市场正在降温,可能会促使美联储考虑降息。
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first of all, speaking of Tesla, they got permission from Arizona to officially expand and get a robo taxi service in their public roads. They got the approval from the Arizona Department of Transportation. Uh so, you are seeing Tesla begin to expand. Whimo expanded to five new cities yesterday. So, you're seeing the self-driving revolution start to become very real and I would imagine over the next 5 years um it becomes a mainstream thing where people are ordering robo taxi. So, exciting to see those updates in the context of Tesla and Whimo. Larry Summers officially has resigned from the OpenAI board. Uh, it does say something that OpenAI actually put this guy on their board of directors, but based on all of the Epstein emails, which by the way unanimously got approved from the Senate last night, uh, and the House was 427 to1. I don't understand why Representative Klay Higgins actually voted against it. But I mean, that's it was quite incredible to see the one vote against it. Um, but the House and the Senate passed it and so I think by next week we're going to get a lot of data on what happened with Epstein and Larry Summers from the emails that have already been leaked apparently was talking with Epstein on relationship advice and how to have an affair, etc. Like is it's kind of crazy. And so he um officially apologized. He apologized in the past, but you know the emails in the past were not the email. A lot of these emails go back to 2019, five years ago. These are these are not these are emails after he was already convicted of being a sex offender. So it's not it's not like uh Larry Summers did not know who he was, but he continued to conversate with him. So now that the emails are so explicit, he is officially stepping down from his role at Harvard, stepping down from the OpenAI board. I mean, it is quite incredible to see the reckoning that is happening with these public officials that are somehow all tied to Epstein. Back to the labor market. This is the stuff the Fed needs to be looking at. 39,6 Americans were given advanced layoff notices in October, the second highest since the 2020 pandemic. This is from the Federal Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. These notices are issued under the worker adjustment and retraining notification or warrant act, which obligates covered employers to provide at least 60 days of notice before a mass layoff or planned closing. aka we are seeing more monthly warn notices. We are seeing more mass layoffs. I don't know how the Fed can see data like that and think that we don't need to cut rates.

埃隆·马斯克与黄仁勋论道AI未来

在美沙投资论坛上,埃隆·马斯克和黄仁勋讨论了AI的未来。马斯克认为,人形机器人将是史上最大的产业,并且未来AI计算的最低成本方式将是通过太阳能驱动的AI卫星在太空中进行。他预测,五年内,在太空进行AI计算将比在地面上更具成本效益。

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This is why I say that humanoid robots will be the biggest industry or the biggest product ever. um bigger than cell phones or anything else because everyone's going to want one and uh or maybe more more than one and there'll be many in industry. I think even perhaps in the four or five year time frame the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar powered AI satellites. So I'd say not more than five years from now.

当被问及是否存在“AI泡沫”时,黄仁勋从三个基本原理进行了解释。首先,摩尔定律已经走到尽头,世界正在从通用计算转向加速计算。其次,过去驱动互联网的推荐系统正在被生成式AI取代。第三,在这些基础之上,诞生了以Grok、OpenAI和Gemini为代表的“代理式AI”(Agentic AI)。他认为,考虑到计算领域正在发生的这些根本性转变,目前对AI的投资不仅是合理的,而且其潜力还远未被完全认识。

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Everybody has been asking me to ask you are we going to have an AI bubble? All right. No. All right. Let me Well, let me just tell you what we see. Okay. So So I I think it's really important when you look at what's happening around the world and go back to first principles of what's happening in computer science and computing. There are three things that that's happening. The first thing is that we all know that Moore's law has run its course and the ability that the amount of demand for computing versus the amount of computation we can get out of general purpose computing is really challenging and so the world's been moving to accelerated computing for some time. The second thing is generative what the the last 15 years is called rexes recommener systems... That Rexus is the engine of the internet today. That's going generative AI. It used to be running on CPUs, now it runs on GPUs. Which then says the third thing when if you just look at those two applications... it creates this the third opportunity on top of it which is agentic AI this is grock and this is open AI this is anthropic you know this is Gemini agentic AI sits on top of that but don't you know don't forget to think about what is happening above underneath what everybody sees as AI today, there's a whole movement of computing from general purpose computing to accelerated computing and that if you just if you take that into consideration, you'll come to the conclusion that in fact what is left over to fuel that revolutionary agentic AI is not only substantially less than you thought and all of it justified.

今晚的财报将是对这些论点的又一次检验。如果英伟达的业绩能够持续超出预期,或许能进一步平息市场的担忧,并证明这场AI革命的深远意义。

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And hopefully tonight with Nvidia earnings that continues to reaffirm the opportunity that a lot of people do think is very real for AI. 185 on Nvidia S&P 500 661.53. I think that is it for today. I will be back at 345 with Tanner, Neil, and Couch uh or Jose. Um and we'll be live to cover Nvidia earnings. Again, the streets expecting 56 billion for this quarter, 61 billion in guidance. Hopefully Nvidia can give us good earnings. I'm expecting it. If it even stays at 185, I'm happy. Obviously, a bounce would be great. I just don't want it to go down because you already have sentiment kind of going the wrong way. You got the Fed potentially not cing. So if the world's largest company, you know, takes a five, seven% hit, that wouldn't be the best. So if we can at least stay at these levels, I'd be happy. And hopefully Jensen can continue to prove how important this revolution is.