以色列如何推动美国卷入对伊战争:特朗普决策幕后 New York Times Podcasts 2026-03-05

开场白

Natalie Kitrov: 纽约时报,我是Natalie Kitrov。这里是《The Daily》。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: From the New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitrov. This is the daily.

片段提问者: 总统先生,是以色列迫使您对伊朗发动这些袭击吗?是内塔尼亚胡把美国拖入这场战争的吗?

Original English

片段提问者: Mr. President, did Israel force your hand to launch these strikes against Iran? Did Netanyahu pull the United States into this war?

特朗普: 不,可能是我迫使他们出手。

Original English

特朗普: No. I might have forced their hands.

片段旁白: 战争爆发6天后,以色列在推动特朗普总统攻击伊朗方面所扮演的角色,已成为一个重要的政治紧张点。根据谈判的进展,我想他们会先攻击,而我不希望那样发生。所以如果说有什么的话,可能是我迫使了以色列出手。

Original English

片段旁白: 6 days into the war, the role that Israel has played in driving President Trump to attack Iran has become a major point of political tension. Based on the way the negotiation was going, I think they were going to attack first and I didn't want that to happen. So if anything, I might have forced Israel's hand.

片段提问者: 关键问题在于,一个外国国家在多大程度上影响了美国三军总司令的行动。

Original English

片段提问者: The key questions have been to what extent is a foreign country shaping the actions of the US commander-in-chief.

片段专家: 我们知道以色列会有行动。我们知道那会引发对美军的袭击。而且我们知道,如果我们在他们发动袭击之前不先发制人,我们会遭受更高的伤亡。

Original English

片段专家: We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces. And we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties.

片段提问者: 而特朗普是如何同意了一个此前没有任何美国总统同意的行动?与以色列对伊朗发动联合战争。

Original English

片段提问者: And how did Trump get on board with something no American president had ever agreed to? Waging a joint war with Israel against Iran.

片段提问者: 我们是否已经将我们社会中能做出的最庄严的决定——宣战的决定——委托给了另一个国家?

Original English

片段提问者: Have we now delegated the most solemn decision that can be made in our society, the decision to go to war to another country?

Natalie Kitrov: 今天,我的同事Mark MisettiRonan Bergman将就我们所了解的美国和以色列之间非凡的密切合作,以及这种伙伴关系如何影响伊朗的最终结局进行讨论。今天是星期四,3月5日MarkRonan,我们想请你们两位来节目,因为你们都一直在报道伊朗的这场冲突。Ronan你来自以色列,Mark你则在华盛顿特区方面。你们正在合写一本书,也经常是报道伙伴,很高兴今天能邀请到你们。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Today, my colleagues Mark Misetti and Ronan Bergman on what we know about the extraordinarily close cooperation between the US and Israel and how that partnership affects the endgame in Iran. It's Thursday, March 5th. Mark Ronan, we wanted to bring you both onto the show because you've both been covering this conflict in Iran. Ronan, you from Israel and you, Mark, on the DC side, you are writing a book together. You are often reporting partners and it is so wonderful to have you both here today.

Mark Misetti: 谢谢邀请我们。

Original English

Mark Misetti: Thanks for having us.

Ronan Bergman: 谢谢你,Natalie。很高兴。所以Mark,你几天前上节目时告诉我们,伊朗战争准备的一部分涉及到以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡为此努力游说特朗普总统。在过去几天里,内塔尼亚胡在多大程度上是这场冲突的驱动力,已成为一个更核心的问题。我们今天想深入探讨这个问题,试图回答关于以色列在多大程度上真正决定这些攻击形式的未解之谜,这些攻击现在已经持续到了第五天,以及这场战争在多大程度上是关于美国想要什么,而不是以色列想要什么。我们应该如何看待这个问题?

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Thanks, Natalie. Pleasure. So Mark, you told us when you were on the show a few days ago that part of the leadup to the war in Iran involved Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lobbying hard for it with President Trump. And over the last few days, the extent to which Netanyahu may have been a driving force behind this conflict has become a much more central question here. And we want to go deep on that today to try to answer the unanswered questions about how much Israel is actually determining the shape of these attacks which have now continued into a fifth day and the degree to which this war is about what the US wants versus what Israel wants. How should we think about that?

内塔尼亚胡的持续施压

Mark Misetti: 所以在过去几个月里,我们公开看到特朗普总统走上了一条迂回的战争之路。他真的想打击吗?他想要一个协议吗?他想要和平吗?谁知道呢?所以,这个方向一直非常不清楚。但我认为真正的情况是,在幕后,每天都在向战争推进。同样在幕后,持续存在的因素是内塔尼亚胡总理向特朗普施加压力,促使他采取行动。这个问题在本周国务卿Marco Rubio告诉记者,本质上战争之所以开始是因为以色列即将开始,而美国需要保护自己免受可能的伊朗袭击之后爆发。换句话说,以色列在推动此事,而美国的回应似乎是别无选择,只能加入以色列发动的战争。

Original English

Mark Misetti: So publicly over the last few months we've seen President Trump take this sort of circuitous path to war. Does he really want to strike? Does he want a deal? Does he want peace? Who knows? So, it's been very unclear which direction this was going. But I think the real story is that behind the scenes, this was every day pushing closer to war. And also behind the scenes, the constant was the pressure of Prime Minister Netanyahu to get Trump there. And that issue blew up this week after Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that in essence the war began because Israel was going to begin it and that the United States needed to protect itself from possible Iranian attack. So in other words, Israel was driving this and the US was responding as if there was no choice but to join the war that Israel started.

Ronan Bergman: 对吧?Rubio的这些评论立刻引起了争议。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Right? These comments by Rubio were seized upon. They were immediately controversial,

Mark Misetti: 对吧?因为它触及了一个痛点,许多人,特别是特朗普总统党内的很多人,批评了这种观念,即以色列和内塔尼亚胡正在把美国卷入中东战争,最终主导美国的对外政策。所以Ronan和我在很长时间内一直在报道这个问题,多年来我们写过关于内塔尼亚胡如何推动美国总统对伊朗开战的文章。我们谈论的是George W. Bush,我们谈论的是Obama,我们谈论的是Joe Biden,我们谈论的是Donald Trump

Original English

Mark Misetti: right? Because it already touches a point that many, particularly in President Trump's party, have criticized this idea that Israel and Netanyahu are getting the United States into wars in the Middle East, ultimately driving American foreign policy. So Ronan and I have been covering this issue for a long time and we've written over the years about how Netanyahu has been pushing American presidents towards war with Iran for many years. We're talking about George W. Bush. We're talking about Obama. We're talking about Joe Biden. We're talking about Donald Trump.

Ronan Bergman: 是的。过去一年半,情况发生了变化,我们现在在伊朗有两场美国战争,因为内塔尼亚胡开始认为与伊朗开战的成本更低,这有助于促使美国卷入。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Yep. The dynamic has changed in the last year and a half where we now have two American wars in Iran because Netanyahu began to see the costs of going to war with Iran is lower and therefore that helped sell the United States getting involved.

Natalie Kitrov: 明白了。要理解你所描述的这种新动态,我们应该从哪里开始?这个故事从何说起?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Got it. And to understand that new dynamic as you've described it, where should we start? Where does that story begin?

Mark Misetti: 嗯,我想你可以从特朗普政府初期开始。所以,在2025年1月特朗普上任,内塔尼亚胡再次开始对伊朗开战的施压行动。记住,这两个人之间有过不信任的历史。记住,BB2020年祝贺Joe Biden赢得大选,而Donald Trump认为大选被窃取了。所以,特朗普对此很生气。所以,这里存在不信任的历史。因此,当特朗普2025年1月上任时,他似乎继承了内塔尼亚胡已经就对伊朗开战所做的计划。

Original English

Mark Misetti: Well, I think you could begin at the beginning of the Trump administration. So, in January 2025, Trump comes in and Netanyahu once again begins this pressure campaign about a war in Iran. And remember, these two men have a history of mistrust. Remember, BB in 2020 congratulated Joe Biden on winning the election that Donald Trump thought was stolen. So, Trump was angry about that. So, there is a history of mistrust here. So when Trump comes in in January 2025, he sort of inherits planning that Netanyahu was already doing about an war with Iran.

Natalie Kitrov: 好的。告诉我那些已经开始的计划。Ronan,我们对此了解多少?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Okay. And tell me about that planning that was already underway. Ronan, what do we know about it?

Ronan Bergman: 所以这是一个逐步推进的攻击计划,其中首次要求美国和以色列联合对伊朗进行打击。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: So this was an rolling plan towards an attack that called for in the first time in history a joint US Israeli strike on Iran

Mark Misetti: 那将涉及以色列情报和美国的力量。

Original English

Mark Misetti: that would involved Israeli intelligence and the almighty power of America together.

Ronan Bergman: 内塔尼亚胡一直以来的梦想就是这样。他为此而努力。每个人都告诉他这永远不会发生。然后有人在2025年4月特朗普总统说:“听着,我们正在被卷入一场我们不想要的战争,我们想要一个协议。”

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Something that Netanyahu always always this was his his dream. He he thrived for that and everybody told him this will never happen. And then someone said to President Trump, this is April 2025. Listen, we are being dragged into war that we don't want and we want an agreement.

Natalie Kitrov: 你是说当特朗普上任时,已经有了这些涉及美以联合攻击的计划,特朗普随后不得不应对。而去年4月,他说不。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: You're saying that when Trump came to office, there were already these plans of foot that involved a joint USIsrael attack that Trump then has to contend with. And in April of last year, he said no.

Ronan Bergman: 是的。一开始,他不想那样。他告诉内塔尼亚胡:“住手。别!”

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Yes. At the beginning, he doesn't want that. And he says to Netanyahu, "Stop. Don't."

Natalie Kitrov: 现在,特朗普说了不,就像本世纪其他所有美国总统对内塔尼亚胡说不一样,对吗?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Now, Trump said no just like every other American president this century had said no to Netanyahu, right?

Mark Misetti: 就像Ronan说的,在4月,他试图阻止它。

Original English

Mark Misetti: And as Ronan says in April, he tries to put a stop to it.

特朗普立场转变

Natalie Kitrov: 但很明显,几个月后,我们确实看到了对伊朗核设施的袭击。所以特朗普在某个时候改变了主意。发生了什么?BB是如何在他对前几任总统失败的地方取得成功的?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: But obviously then a few months later, we do see these strikes on Iran's nuclear sites. So Trump at some point changed his mind. What happened? How did BB succeed where he'd failed with previous presidents?

Mark Misetti: 所以在特朗普4月说不之后,以色列的计划仍在继续,即在没有美国加入,或者可能只是扮演防御角色的情况下,对伊朗进行打击。这一直持续到6月,当时内塔尼亚胡发动了战争。冲突开始一天后,特朗普正在关注它的进展。他在看Fox News。他在观察这是否成功?也就是说,它是否受到了好评?

Original English

Mark Misetti: So after Trump says no in April, the planning continues in Israel to do strikes in Iran without the United States joining in or maybe just in a defensive role. And this proceeds all the way to June when Netanyahu launches the war. And a day after the conflict begins, Trump is watching how it's playing. He's watching Fox News. He's watching the sense of is this successful? meaning is it being received well?

Natalie Kitrov: 进展顺利吗?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Is it being received well? Does it seem to be going well?

Mark Misetti: 而且正如我们去年报道的,美国决定加入。内塔尼亚胡已经开始了一些事情,而内塔尼亚胡自己说,只有美国才能完成,因为美国拥有军事能力,特别是那些能够打击深埋地点的钻地炸弹。因此,如果这件事要真正达到目的,美国就必须参与进来。最终,这就是说服特朗普在去年6月加入打击的原因,打击了三座核设施,然后用特朗普的话说,宣布它们“彻底被摧毁”。

Original English

Mark Misetti: And as we reported last year, decides the United States is going to join. That Netanyahu had begun something that Netanyahu himself said only the United States can finish because the United States has military capabilities, specifically these bunker buster bombs that can hit deeply buried sites. And so if this thing is going to actually be brought to its conclusion, the United States has to get involved. And that's ultimately what convinces Trump to join the strikes last June, hit the three nuclear facilities, and then declare them, in Trump's words, completely and totally obliterated.

Natalie Kitrov: 对吗?他和BB都出来说,他们已经成功拆除了这些地点,并将伊朗的核计划推迟了一代。那么,我们是如何从特朗普批准那种被宣布为如此成功的有限打击,到现在这种旨在瓦解整个政权更为极端的行动呢?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Right? And both he and BB come out and say that they have successfully dismantled the sites and they have set Iran's nuclear program back a generation. So, how did we then get from Trump okaying that kind of limited strike that was declared so successful to now this much more extreme campaign that is aimed at dismantling an entire regime

Ronan Bergman: 甚至在轰炸机返回美国之前,他就已经进行了BDA,也就是战斗损害评估,而BB说我们已经消除了核项目和导弹项目的威胁,持续几代。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: even before the planes the bombers turn back to the US and he already has the the BDA the the battle damage assessment and BB saying we've removed the threat from the nuclear project and the missile project for generations

Mark Misetti: 但他没有那样的评估,而且那也不是真的。高级军官实时告诉我们,两军的战术成就都如预期。但没有人预料到这次有限的行动会消除威胁,因为如果它消除了威胁,我们现在在做什么呢?你消除了威胁,然后8个月后它又回来了。但澄清一下,你说的意思是,他们并没有真正将伊朗的核计划推迟一代,而且威胁仍然非常存在,每个人都知道这一点。

Original English

Mark Misetti: But he didn't have that and it was not true. Highranking military officials told us in real time the tactical achievements of both militaries were as expected. But nobody expected that this limited campaign would remove the threat because if it removed the threat, what are we doing now? Like you remove it threat and then it comes back after 8 months. But just to be clear, what you're saying is they did not actually set Iran's nuclear program back a generation and that the threat was very much still present and everyone knew that.

Ronan Bergman: 是的。以色列PDA说,在好日子里,他们可能在一年内撤回了部分核计划,或者在几个月内撤回了其他部分。所以问题不在于成就与目标,而在于那些领导人的声明,他们说它“被摧毁了”,但实际上并非如此。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Yeah. And the Israeli PDA said that in a good day, maybe they withdrew parts of the nuclear plan in maybe up to a year, maybe in some other parts in months. So the problem was not the achievements versus the targets but the statements from the leaders who said it's it's obliterated and it was not.

内塔尼亚胡的持续施压

Mark Misetti: 但无论如何,在特朗普看来,这个问题基本解决了。他发动了袭击,宣布这些地点被摧毁,然后继续前进。但内塔尼亚胡没有继续前进,因为正如Ronan所说,在以色列看来,至少还需要一轮行动。这些地点没有被摧毁。伊朗导弹的问题仍然存在。所以,对以色列人来说,这并没有消失。在6月袭击之后的几个月里,你会看到以色列官员与美国军方和其他方面讨论需要再进行一场伊朗冲突的压力活动持续在低水平进行。这最终在12月末真正传到了特朗普那里,当时内塔尼亚胡来到海湖庄园,基本上是为另一场战争提出了理由。

Original English

Mark Misetti: But nevertheless in Trump's mind this issue is largely settled. He does the strikes, he declares the sites obliterated, moves on. But Netanyahu doesn't move on because as Ronan says in Israel there's a view that there needs to be at least another round. the sites aren't obliterated. There's still the issue of Iranian missiles. So, this doesn't go away for the Israelis. And in the months after the June strike, you see the pressure campaign continue at a low level where Israeli officials are discussing with the mil US military and others about the need for another conflict in Iran. And this ultimately gets really to Trump in late December. when Netanyahu comes to Mara Lago and basically makes the case for another war

Natalie Kitrov: 内塔尼亚胡当时提出了什么理由?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: and what is the case that Netanyahu makes at that point?

Mark Misetti: 所以他向总统提出的理由是一方面,但我们先谈谈他向以色列军方提出的理由,以及他所说的话背后可能存在的其他动机。

Original English

Mark Misetti: So the case that he's making to the president is one but let's first talk about the case that he's making to the Israeli military and maybe the possible additional motives behind what he's saying.

Ronan Bergman: 当然。他正在向以色列军方下达命令,要求他们准备好在有美国或没有美国的情况下,于2026年4月到6月期间对伊朗进行另一次大规模打击。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Sure. He is giving the Israeli military an order to get ready to another massive strike in Iran either with the US or without the US somewhere between April to June 2026.

Mark Misetti: 那是在去年10月、11月。而且他也看到了,我确定他看到了2026年的时间表。选举即将来临。内塔尼亚胡在所有民意调查中都大大落后。

Original English

Mark Misetti: That's back in November, October, November. And also he saw I am sure he saw the the timeline of 2026. Elections are coming. Netanyahu is lagging much behind in all the polls.

Ronan Bergman: 6月对伊朗的袭击并没有在民意调查中带来预期的选票。所有这些加在一起,他正在让军队准备进攻。带着这种准备,他来到海湖庄园

Original English

Ronan Bergman: The attack on Iran in June did not bring the expected votes in the polls. All of that together, he is getting the military ready to attack. And with that preparation, he comes to Malagu.

Natalie Kitrov: 你是说,他正在说服以色列军方制定一个计划来推进此事,同时他去会见特朗普。那么,考虑到所有这些,BB抵达海湖庄园时发生了什么?他对特朗普说了什么?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: And what you're saying is that he is convincing the Israeli military building a plan to go forward with this as he goes to meet with Trump. So with all that in mind, what happens when BB gets to Mara Lago? What does he say to Trump?

Ronan Bergman: 他说我们有工作要做。中国正在向伊朗提供生产弹道导弹所需的必要部件。俄罗斯正在帮助他们。他们正在重新武装。他们正在重组。我们需要再次攻击他们。如果能进行美以联合打击,我们会非常高兴。但即使只是以色列的打击,我也请求总统批准。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: He says we have work to do. China is resupplying Iran with the necessary component for the production of ballistic missiles. Russia is helping them. They are rearming. They are regrouping. We need to attack them again. We would be more than happy if it's a joint US-Israeli strike. But even just an Israeli strike, I am asking the president blessing

Mark Misetti: 至少是以色列的打击,以及在2026年4月至6月期间,帮助以色列防御弹道导弹。

Original English

Mark Misetti: to a strike at least an Israeli strike and a and a help in the defense of Israel from ballistic missiles between April and June 2026.

Natalie Kitrov: 所以内塔尼亚胡说伊朗对以色列构成迫在眉睫的威胁。首先,Mark,这是真的吗?其次,他此时并没有谈论伊朗对美国造成的任何直接威胁,对吧?那不是他提出的理由的一部分。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: So Netanyahu is saying there is an imminent threat to Israel posed by Iran. First of all, is that true, Mark? And second of all, he's not at this point talking about any direct threat that Iran is posing to the US at this time, right? That's not part of the case.

Mark Misetti: 正确。伊朗没有任何能够打击美国的导弹。内塔尼亚胡提出的理由是,自6月战争以来,导弹生产一直在持续,对以色列构成直接威胁。现在,我认为迫在眉睫的问题总是需要稍微剖析一下,对吧?我的意思是,以色列在6月开始战争后,伊朗向以色列发射了导弹,对吧?所以问题是,伊朗是否即将发动另一场战争,这是否迫在眉睫?我不认为BB完全是这个意思,但伊朗的能力对以色列构成直接威胁,这一点毫无疑问。我可以补充一点,我认为伊朗没有对美国构成威胁,但BB一直提醒特朗普,它确实对特朗普构成了非常个人化的威胁。

Original English

Mark Misetti: That's correct. Iran does not have any missiles capable of hitting the United States. And Netanyahu is making the case that uh the missile production has continued a pace since the June war. and it poses a direct threat to Israel. Now, I think the question of imminent is always one that needs to be sort of unpacked a little bit, right? I mean, Iran launched missiles at Israel after Israel began the war in June, right? So, the question is, is it imminent because Iran is about to launch another war? I don't think BB was making that case at all, but there's no question that the capabilities of Iran pose a direct threat to Israel. May I just add here that I think that Iran didn't pose a threat to the US, but BB keeps reminding Trump that it did pose a very personal threat to Trump.

Ronan Bergman: 以色列情报部门成功识别出一项刺杀特朗普的阴谋,由最高领导人亲自下令。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: That Israeli intelligence was able to identify a conspiracy to kill Trump ordered personally by the Supreme Leader.

Mark Misetti: 对吧?这当然被以色列情报部门挫败了,他们把此事告知了FBI和美国官员。但这从总统的角度来看,留下了一个非常个人化的感受。

Original English

Mark Misetti: Right? This was of course disrupted by Israeli intelligence who told the FBI and American officials about that. But that left a very personal point from the point of view of the president.

特朗普: 听着,这家伙想杀我。

Original English

特朗普: Look, this guy tried to kill me.

Natalie Kitrov: 你是说BB在提醒特朗普这一点。这些家伙想杀你,还记得吗?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: And you're saying BB is reminding Trump of that. These guys tried to kill you, remember?

Ronan Bergman: 是的。他们确实做了。这是真的。特朗普记得。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Yeah. And they did. It was real. And Trump remembers.

Mark Misetti: 内塔尼亚胡向特朗普提出的另一个理由是,伊朗现在很弱。现在是打击的时候了。他基本上是在争论说,伊朗的代理人部队,特别是真主党,已经被大范围摧毁。

Original English

Mark Misetti: And another case that Netanyahu is making to Trump is that Iran is weak right now. and the time is to strike. He's basically arguing that Iran's proxy forces like specifically Hezbollah has been largely destroyed.

Ronan Bergman: 他们的导弹发射器和导弹基地在6月受到了重创。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Their missile launchers and their missile sites were hit hard in June.

Mark Misetti: 另外,请记住,这是德黑兰街头大规模抗议活动的开始,政府必须镇压这些抗议。所以,这是伊朗的一个弱势时刻,内塔尼亚胡当时似乎正试图抓住这个机会。

Original English

Mark Misetti: And remember also this is the beginning of mass protests happening on the streets of Thran that the government has to put down. So this is a moment of weakness for Iran that it looks like Netanyahu at that time is just trying to seize.

Natalie Kitrov: 这里有一个有趣的矛盾,对吧?我的意思是,BB提出的第一个论点是伊朗构成迫在眉睫的威胁,也就是说伊朗很强大。第二个论点是伊朗很弱,所以我们应该趁它虚弱时打击它。我的意思是,这两个理由都以我们应该打击伊朗告终。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: There's an interesting contradiction here, right? I mean, the first argument BB's making is Iran poses an imminent threat, aka Iran is strong. The second argument is Iran is weak, so we should strike them while they're down. I mean, both of those reasons end in we should strike Iran.

Mark Misetti: 是的,我想这么说很公平。我的意思是,内塔尼亚胡再次争论说,主要是因为伊朗正在试图建造和正在建造的这些导弹,如果我们等待3、4个月,打击会变得更加危险。所以现在是时候采取行动了,而且政权本身正被过去一年半的事件分散注意力和削弱。

Original English

Mark Misetti: Yeah, I think that's fair to say. I mean Netanyahu is arguing that again primarily because of these missiles that Iran is trying to build and is building that if we wait 3 4 months it'll be even more dangerous to strike. So this is the moment to do it and the regime itself is distracted and weakened by the events of the last year and a half.

委内瑞拉行动的影响

Natalie Kitrov: 明白了。特朗普如何回应这个论点?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Got it. And how does Trump respond to this argument?

Mark Misetti: 所以他没有关闭在2026年可能进行打击的大门。所以内塔尼亚胡离开佛罗里达时认为,这至少在未来一段时间内是有可能的。然后几天后,特朗普授权在委内瑞拉采取军事行动,在加拉加斯抓捕尼古拉·马杜罗和他的妻子,并将他们带到美国。这其中的意义在于,特朗普认为军事行动可以迅速、干净地完成,风险相对较小。他被委内瑞拉的行动所鼓舞。这在某种程度上影响了他对军事力量可以在世界其他地方,包括伊朗使用的看法。

Original English

Mark Misetti: So he doesn't close the door on a possible strike in 2026. And so Netanyahu leaves Florida thinking that it's at least on the table for some time in the future. And then just a few days after that, Trump authorizes the military operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolam Maduro and his wife in Caracus and take them to the United States. And the significance of this is that Trump sees military operations that can be done quickly, cleanly, with relatively little risk. And he is emboldened by the Venezuelan operation. And it sort of colors his view of where military force can be used elsewhere around the world, including Iran.

Natalie Kitrov: 我想知道Ronan,内塔尼亚胡是否也把马杜罗被捕的这个时刻,视为一个信号,表明特朗普现在愿意在全球舞台上走得很远,非常具有侵略性。我想知道他是否将其视为一个机会。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: I wonder Ronan if Netanyahu is also looking at this moment at the extraction of Maduro as a sign that Trump is willing to go very far and be very aggressive now on the global stage. I wonder if he sees it as an opportunity.

Ronan Bergman: 我相信,这只是一个评估,如果内塔尼亚胡总理从这次事件中得出任何结论,那就是他会发现特朗普总统处于一种他无所不能的心情,他只需动动手指就能下令改变历史的行动。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: I I believe that that and this is just an assessment that if Prime Minister Netanyahu concludes anything from this event is that he would be finding President Trump in a mood that he's omnipotent and just with the flipping of his fingers he can order a history changing maneuvers.

Mark Misetti: 对吗?所以他对任何人都会更加敏感,我也不确定仅仅是内塔尼亚胡。我也在谈论美国政治家,他们会说:“听着,你可以在所有前任美国总统,特别是奥巴马失败的地方取得成功,你可以做到,你有胆量。”

Original English

Mark Misetti: Right? So he will be more sensitive to anyone and I'm not sure just Nataniel I'm talking about American politicians as well who say listen you can succeed when where all the previous American president fail especially Obama and you can do it you have the guts and

Ronan Bergman: 内塔尼亚胡认为自己是那个能向总统耳语的人:“你可以做所有前任美国总统都失败的事情。你就是那个人。你会有胆量。你会有勇气进行这次打击,一次大型攻击,一劳永逸地推翻这个可怕的政权,做他们需要做的事情。他们害怕了。但你,你,总统先生,你不会。你不害怕。”

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Netanyahu sees himself as the person who can whisper to the president here you can do something that all the previous presidents of the United States failed. You are the man. You will have the guts. you will have the kahunes to go for this one strike, one big attack that would take down this horrible regime once and for all and do what they needed to do. And they were afraid. But you, you, Mr. President, you will not. You are not afraid.

伊朗抗议与美以协调

Natalie Kitrov: 紧接着马杜罗被捕后,1月份伊朗爆发了抗议活动,特朗普对此的反应是承诺通过可能的美国打击来帮助抗议者。我们都听说了。那么,这如何与这个故事契合,Mark

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: And then soon after the Maduro capture, we get the January protests in Iran, which Trump reacts to by promising to help the protesters with possible American strikes. We all heard that. So, how does that fit into this story, Mark?

Mark Misetti: 嗯,现在又有了另一个因素,那就是这些抗议活动表明伊朗政权很弱。我认为在特朗普看来,这是美国可以干预,以推翻或至少削弱伊朗政府,帮助抗议者的想法。所以,突然之间,正当理由转向了帮助抗议者。而特朗普公开表示,正如你所说,美国可能会动用其军队来干预,以支持抗议者。

Original English

Mark Misetti: Well, now there's a whole another factor, which is that these protests suggest that the Iran regime is weak. And I think in Trump's mind, it's this idea of the United States can intervene to bring down or at least weaken the Iranian government to help the protesters. So, all of a sudden, the pivot for justification goes to helping protesters. And Trump says publicly, as you said, that, you know, the United States might use its military to intervene on the behalf of the protesters,

Natalie Kitrov: 对吗?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: right?

Mark Misetti: 但随后发生了一件非常有趣的事情。在1月14日

Original English

Mark Misetti: But then something very interesting happens. On January 14th,

Ronan Bergman: 内塔尼亚胡打电话给特朗普,基本上说:

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Netanyahu calls Trump and basically says,

Mark Misetti: “暂时不要在伊朗做任何事,因为我们还没准备好。我们以色列人还没准备好进行打击。”正如Ronan之前所说,最初的计划是2026年4月到6月,对吧?现在是1月初,任何正在进行的准备工作都还不成熟。所以理由是,你必须等待。

Original English

Mark Misetti: "Don't do anything yet in Iran cuz we're not ready. We, the Israelis, are not ready for a strike." There's, as Ronan said earlier, the original plan was April to June 2026, right? We're now early January and any preparations that were being made were not mature. And so the argument is you've got to wait.

Natalie Kitrov: 特朗普没有在1月份进行打击,对吧?我们知道他们等到2月才进行,这表明他确实听从了内塔尼亚胡的警告。所有这些,你所描述的,确实表明以色列和美国在这件事上有着非常明确的协调。不仅仅是特朗普对内塔尼亚胡说“是”或“否”,给予或不给予他的祝福。在这种情况下,内塔尼亚胡对双方将采取何种路径有着相当大的影响力。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Trump doesn't strike in January, right? We know that they wait until February to do that, which suggests that he did heed Netanyahu's warning. And all of this, what you've described really suggests that Israel and the US are very clearly coordinating on all of this. It's not just Trump telling Netanyahu yes or no, giving his blessing or not. In this case, Netanyahu has quite a bit of influence on what kind of path both sides are going to take here.

Mark Misetti: 是的。而且从1月中旬开始的这段时间,你会看到军事层面在进行较低层次的计划,朝着美以联合行动、联合打击的方向发展。所以,抗议者在特朗普心中为美国军事行动打开了大门。但很快之后,为更大规模的美以行动去针对整个政权埋下了种子。所以,展望今天,我们看到内塔尼亚胡最终得到了比他12月份想要的更多。他得到了一场由美国主导的伊朗战争。

Original English

Mark Misetti: Yes. And from you know this period in mid January you start seeing planning happening at a lower level with the militaries moving towards what would be a joint operation a joint strike between Israel and the United States. So the protesters opened the door here in Trump's mind for US military action. But pretty soon afterwards, the seed has been planted for a larger USI Israeli operation to go after the entire regime. And so looking forward to today, we see that Netanyahu ended up getting far more than he ever wanted back in December. He got a US-led war in Iran.

特朗普参战的理由

Natalie Kitrov: 好的。所以到目前为止,我现在明白了为什么内塔尼亚胡想要这个,以及他是如何向特朗普提出他的理由的,他是如何可能比他预期中更成功的。我不太清楚的是,这次特朗普为什么会同意,他为什么会走到这一步,他计算出这对美国有什么好处。在过去一周,我们花了很多时间试图回答这些问题,并试图弄清是什么导致特朗普参战。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Okay. So, by this point, I now understand why Netanyahu wanted this and how he made his case to Trump, how he was perhaps more successful than he even bargained for. What's less clear to me is why exactly Trump got on board this time around, why he went this far, what he calculated was in it for the US. We've spent a lot of time over the last week trying to answer those questions and to sort of get to the matter of what led Trump to war.

Mark Misetti: 答案是,幕后有很多因素促使他做出决定,而这些考量最终围绕着一个问题:这对美国有什么好处?我们马上回来。

Original English

Mark Misetti: And the answer is that there were a lot of factors behind the scenes that led him to his decision and the deliberations that ultimately centered around the question, what's in this for the United States? We'll be right back.

Natalie Kitrov: 那么,MarkRonan,我假设当特朗普考虑对伊朗进行潜在攻击时,他会从顾问和世界各地的盟友那里听到这会多么危险。你说这些是复杂的审议。我们对它们了解多少?它们告诉我们所有这些将走向何方?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: So, Mark Ronan, I assume that as Trump was considering a potential attack on Iran, he was hearing from advisers, from allies around the world about just how risky that would be. You said these were complicated deliberations. What do we know about them and what do they tell us about where all this is headed?

Mark Misetti: 我们当然知道,特朗普总统的军事顾问,即参谋长联席会议主席Dan Kaine,向他提出了一系列不仅是他可以对伊朗采取打击行动的选择,还有潜在的后果。据我们了解,Kaine将军对大规模袭击可能带来的影响和后果进行了相当清醒的评估。美国军人牺牲,经济中断,整个中东地区可能不稳定。当然,如果推翻伊朗政权,以色列无疑会遭受大规模伤亡。所以这些都是在特朗普总统做决定时呈现在他面前的。

Original English

Mark Misetti: We certainly know that President Trump was presented by his military adviserss, namely Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kaine, a set of not only options for what he could do in terms of striking Iran, but also what the potential repercussions are. And from our understanding, General Kaine gives a quite sober assessment of especially if there is a large-scale attack, what the implications, repercussions might be. American service members killed, economic disruptions, potential destabilization of the entire Middle East. Of course, if you were to overthrow the regime in Iran, obviously large-scale casualties in Israel. So these are things that were presented to President Trump as he was making his decision.

Natalie Kitrov: 你是说他们进行了那些兵棋推演。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: They run those war games. You're saying

Mark Misetti: 他们进行了兵棋推演。另一方面,尽管存在这些潜在的负面后果,但他的亲密顾问中似乎没有人告诉他这是一个坏主意。

Original English

Mark Misetti: they run the war games. On the other side, even though there are these potentially negative consequences, no one among his close advisers seem to be telling him this is a bad idea.

Ronan Bergman: 他主要得到顾问的支持。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: He's getting mostly support from his adviserss.

Mark Misetti: 我们报道,副总统JD Vance,他一直对美国军事干预持怀疑态度,他告诉总统:“听着,我不知道这是否是个好主意,但如果我们要这样做,那就做大。”对吧?所以,这种军事行动应该发生的想法在总统脑海中得到了加强。记住,还有另一条线索正在进行,Jared KushnerSteve Witoff正在就伊朗核计划的未来进行谈判。他们基本上是回来报告说,你知道,我们认为这里没有达成协议的空间,因为在以色列、美国和伊朗之间没有能满足所有人的协议空间。我们报道说,少数几个认为这是个坏主意的人之一是Tucker Carlson,他至少三次会见总统,他正在提出这是一个巨大错误的理由。当然,他长期以来一直批评以色列在美国外交政策中扮演的角色。

Original English

Mark Misetti: We report that Vice President JD Vance, who has been skeptical of American military interventions, tells the president, "Listen, I don't know if this is a good idea, but if we're going to do it, go big." Right? So, you have this idea being reinforced in the president's mind that military action should take place. Remember, there's another track going on where Jared Kushner and Steve Witoff are negotiating over the future of Iran's nuclear program. and they're basically reporting back saying, you know, we don't think there's a deal here because there's no space for a deal between Israel, the United States, and Iran that's going to satisfy everybody. We report that one of the few people who suggests that this is a bad idea is Tucker Carlson, who meets with the president at least three times, and he is making the case that this is an enormous mistake. And of course, he's got a long history of criticizing the role that Israel plays in American foreign policy.

Natalie Kitrov: 对。同时,听起来特朗普并不担心他自己的支持者对另一场对外战争的潜在反应。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Right. And at the same time, it sounds like Trump is not concerned with the potential reaction within his own base to another foreign war.

Mark Misetti: 我认为,你知道,特朗普在他的公开评论中说过,总结起来就是,MAGA运动就是我和我所说所做的一切,这个运动的人民会支持。所以,他的党派中MAGA派反对它的想法,似乎并没有在特朗普在这次冲突前的思考中发挥重要作用。这当然是可能的,对吧,他不仅仅不担心潜在的政治负面影响,而且他在这里看到了政治上的好处。我的意思是,如果你看看这里可能出现的最佳结果,我知道我们离那还很远,但这只是理解我们所看到的一切的最佳理由的一种方式:一个伊朗攻击邻国和压迫人民的能力被显著削弱的世界。一个伊朗可能不再公开敌视美国,在中东地区不再是混乱制造者的世界。这可能是一个改变世界的发展,对吧?

Original English

Mark Misetti: I think that, you know, Trump has said in his public comments, boiling it down, you know, the MAGA movement is me and what I say and do, the people of this movement will support. So, this idea that the MAGA wing of his party is against it. It seemed to not factor significantly in Trump's thinking in the leadup to this conflict. It is possible, right, that he's not just not worried about potential political downsides, but that he sees political upsides here. I mean, if you look at the possible best case outcome here, and I know we are far off from that, but just as a way of understanding the best version of a rationale for what we're seeing, a world in which Iran's ability to attack its neighbors and repress its people is significantly degraded. A world in which Iran becomes potentially less openly hostile to the US, less of a chaos agent in the Middle East. That could be a worldchanging development, right?

Ronan Bergman: 是的。在伊朗问题上,特朗普将自己与他的前任进行比较,对吧?所有这些在我之前的总统都让这个政权得以存在。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Yes. On the issue of Iran, Trump compares himself to his predecessors, right? All these presidents before me left this regime in place.

Mark Misetti: 在过去几周里,我们听到政府和特朗普本人都在尝试不同的想法,以解释这场战争的真正原因。我们听到特朗普在国情咨文演讲中说,伊朗的弹道导弹对美国构成迫在眉睫的威胁。那不是真的。好吗?至少他们短期内做不到,对吧?Steve Whipkoff说伊朗可以在一周内拥有炸弹。那不是真的。对吧?然后最终,在袭击开始后,特朗普在周六早上发表了他的录音讲话,他基本上是这样说的:听着,这是一个已经实施了47年恐怖的政权,它一直存在,它的历史可以追溯到1979年美国大使馆被占领,1983年在贝鲁特数百名海军陆战队员被杀。现在是时候有人处理它了。他最终的结论是,这个政权是一个坏角色,它必须被推翻。

Original English

Mark Misetti: And in the last couple weeks, we've sort of heard the administration and Trump himself kind of road test different ideas for what is the real reason for this war. And we heard an imminent threat from Iran's ballistic missiles that could hit the United States that he said in the State of the Union. That's not true. Okay? At least they can't do it anytime soon, right? Steve Whipkoff said Iran can have a bomb in a week. That's not true. Right? And then finally after the strikes began and Trump made his recorded message on Saturday morning, he basically made this case of listen, this is a regime that's been carrying out terror for 47 years that has been left in place that has a history going back to the takeover of the American embassy in 1979, the killing of hundreds of Marines in 1983 in Beirut. And it's time someone dealt with it. And that's sort of where he landed at the end here, which was that this regime is a bad actor and it needed to go.

美以合作的现状与未来

Natalie Kitrov: 好的。我想问,我们显然看到,虽然有许多因素促使特朗普做出参战的决定,但内塔尼亚胡一直是一个驱动力。他不断在特朗普耳边推动此事,并兑现了他作为全面合作伙伴的承诺。在过去的几天里,我们看到了这一点。现在战争已经进行了5天,我们对内塔尼亚胡和特朗普目前的一致程度了解多少?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Okay. I want to ask, we've obviously seen that while there have been many factors that brought Trump to this decision of going to war, Netanyahu has been a driving force. He has constantly been in Trump's ear pushing for this and he has followed through on his promise to be a full partner in it. And we've seen that over the last several days. Now that we are 5 days into this war, what do we know about how aligned Netanyahu and Trump are right now?

Ronan Bergman: 所以在操作层面,在工作层面,我们有数十架美国加油机每分钟从本扬机场起飞,帮助以色列空军进行战争。所以,在工作层面,不可能比这更紧密和广泛了。但我认为,尽管他们是一致的,并且密切同步,但现在他们的路径、目标和利益可能会出现分歧。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: So on the operational level, on the working level, we have dozens of American fueling tankers taking off from Benyon airport every minute to help the Israeli air force in its war effort. So on the working level, it couldn't be more close and more extensive. But I think that while they are aligned and closely synchronizing, this is the point where their path and goals and targets and interests might diverge

Mark Misetti: 因为特朗普希望一场非常短暂的战争。而以色列,他们说他们还需要两周。

Original English

Mark Misetti: because Trump is looking for a very short war. And Israel, they say that they need two more weeks.

Natalie Kitrov: 而且,你如何结束它?你是说,美国和以色列双方在冲突中希望停留多久可能会开始出现分歧,特朗普可能倾向于尽早退出,而以色列则希望更长时间的参与。我感觉以色列以及我们其他人面临的问题是,特朗普并没有真正提出一个连贯的愿景来解释这场战争将如何结束。他最近就这个问题与几位不同的记者和媒体进行了交流,包括我们《时代》杂志的同事Zolan Keno Young,但他对这场冲突的最佳解决方案以及如何实现该方案一直不清楚。他曾说他希望伊朗人奋起推翻他们的政府,但他也暗示他愿意与伊朗政权残留的任何部分进行谈判。这些都是关于美国真正想要什么,相互矛盾和令人困惑的信息。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: And also, how do you end it? What you're saying is that the two sides, US and Israel, they may begin to diverge in terms of how long each side wants to stay in this conflict with potentially Trump favoring getting out of it early and Israel pushing for a longer engagement. And I feel as though part of the issue for Israel, but also for the rest of us, is that Trump hasn't really laid out a coherent vision for how this ends. He has called and talked to several different reporters, media outlets on this question recently, including our times colleague Zolan Keno Young's and he's been unclear about what he sees as the best resolution for this conflict and how to get there. He has said he wants the Iranians to rise up and take over their government, but he's also suggested that he's open to negotiating with whatever's left of the Iranian regime. Those are conflicting and confusing messages about what the US actually wants here.

Ronan Bergman: 而且还有来自以色列的矛盾和令人困惑的信息,因为以色列也说我们这样做是为了为伊朗人民重返街头反抗和示威做准备。但这到底意味着什么?如果他们去了,以色列会派一架攻击直升机到每条街上,与那些即将屠杀他们的人作战,还是美国会这样做?这到底意味着什么?而且,以色列正在对抗导弹项目和核项目,但这与支持抗议者有什么关系?我真的不明白特朗普总统的走向,我也不太明白以色列的目标是什么,除了对政权的军事方面造成尽可能大的损害。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: And also the conflicting and confusing messages from Israel because Israel is also saying we are doing this in order to prepare the ground for the Iranian people to go back to the streets and revolt and demonstrate. But what does that mean? Like if they go then Israel will send an attacking chopper to each street to fight against the besiege who are going to butcher them or the US would do that. What? What what does it mean? And also, Israel is fighting the missile project and the nuclear project, but how is this connected to support of the protesters? I really don't understand where President Trump is going and I don't really understand what's the goals from Israel except for inflicting as much damage to the military sides of the regime.

Natalie Kitrov: 你们觉得这里的最终结局是什么?美国和以色列双方的实际最终结局是什么?

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: What do you guys actually think the end games are here? the actual endgames for both sides, for the US and Israel.

Mark Misetti: 我将从美国方面发言,只是说目标非常不清楚,因为政府在解释目标方面做得不好。是政权更迭吗?是为了摧毁伊朗军事能力的狭隘努力吗?对我来说,上周最能说明问题的评论是特朗普总统说:“嗯,我们心中有些人可以领导伊朗,但他们现在都死了。”对吧?所以这暗示他们正在考虑的人与最高领导人或领导层足够亲近,以至于他们在针对伊朗高级领导人的袭击中被杀。这表明所设想的不是全面变革,而是像罢免最高领导人,然后宣布战争胜利并继续前进。然后这就回到了Ronan的观点。那么,这如何帮助伊朗抗议者呢?上周以来,这场战争的目标到底是什么,一直是一团糟。

Original English

Mark Misetti: I'll speak from the American side and just say it is incredibly unclear what the goals are because the administration has not done a good job explaining what the goals are. Is it regime change? Is it a narrow effort to destroy Iran's military capabilities? To me, the most telling comment of the last week came when President Trump said, "Well, we had some people in mind to lead Iran, but they're all dead now." Right? So that implies that the people they were considering were close enough to the supreme leader or to the leadership that they got killed in strikes among the senior leaders of Iran. Suggesting that what was envisioned is not wholesale change but something like removing the top leaders and calling the war a success and moving on. And then that goes to Ronan's point. So, just how does that help Iranian protesters? This has been a muddle over the last week of exactly what the goals of this war are.

Natalie Kitrov: 而且我想,这些目标也可能改变,特别是对特朗普来说,如果他开始担心这场战争变得代价高昂且不受欢迎。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: And I'd imagine those goals could also change, especially for Trump, if he starts to worry about this war becoming really costly and unpopular.

Ronan Bergman: 是的。我认为对于内塔尼亚胡来说,他担心特朗普会看到混乱和经济中断,以及股市暴跌,并希望尽快停止战争。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Yes. And I think for Netanyahu, the concern is that Trump would see chaos and economic disruption and the stock market cratering and want to stop the war sooner rather than later.

Mark Misetti: 内塔尼亚胡,因为我们刚刚讨论过的所有历史,希望对这场冲突有一个更明确的解决方案。但到目前为止,我需要说,尽管有预测称内塔尼亚胡和特朗普的联盟会崩溃,但它并没有。自战争开始以来,两人一直保持一致。对于内塔尼亚胡来说,这可能是最重要的。从内塔尼亚胡的角度来看,我认为到目前为止一切顺利。该地区,整个世界都看到了美以两军的密切合作,以及这两个国家之间的紧密关系。

Original English

Mark Misetti: And Netanyahu, because of all the history we've just discussed, wants to have a more definite resolution to this conflict. But so far, I need to say that despite predictions that Netanyahu and Trump's alliance would collapse, it hasn't. The two have remained in lock step since the war began. And for Netanyahu, that might be the most significant thing. From the point of view of Netanyahu, I think so far so good. the region, the whole world see the close cooperation between the two militaries of US and Israel and how close these countries are together

Natalie Kitrov: 对。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: right

Ronan Bergman: 但这也给以色列带来了风险的种子,因为在合作方面,它有时会与该地区的现实相遇,而该地区的现实是,在美国的帮助下,什么都没有真正解决。就像哈马斯仍然控制着加沙,仍然渴望再次实施10月7日的行动。真主党仍然是黎巴嫩最强大的军事力量。他们昨天刚向特拉维夫发射了导弹。而伊朗,政权仍然存在,他们仍然拥有450公斤的浓缩铀,几乎达到军事级别。他们仍然拥有离心机。他们仍然拥有导弹。所以即使有美国的支持,什么都没有解决,我们仍然生活在一个非常危险的地区,每分钟都坐在一个爆炸桶上,随时可能再次爆炸。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: but that also bear the seeds for a risk to Israel because with respect to the cooperation it sometimes meet with realities of the area and the reality of the area is that nothing is really solved with the help of the US like Kamas is still in control of Gaza still aspiring to execute another October 7. Hisbala is still the most powerful military force in Lebanon. They just launched missiles at Tel Aviv yesterday. And Iran, the regime is still in place and they still have the 450 kilograms of enriched uranium to almost military grade. They still have the centrifuges. They still have the missiles. So even with the support of the US, nothing is solved and we are still living in a very risky region that every minute sits on a barrel of explosive that can reexlode every minute.

Natalie Kitrov: 对吗?你是说,即使在这个美国和以色列联手对付伊朗、打击伊朗、与伊朗开战的新世界里,这种步调一致的合作至少还没有产生能够真正改善以色列人、改善该地区状况的解决方案。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Right? You're saying that even in this new world where you have the US and Israel going after Iran, striking Iran, going to war with Iran together, that lockstep cooperation hasn't yet at least yielded the kind of solutions that actually would make things better for Israelis, better for the region,

Ronan Bergman: 更好地造福伊朗民众。这只是对伊朗核设施、导弹基地和防空设施的轰炸,以及对一些人的杀戮。其中有些人是非常非常坏的人,他们的手上沾满了伊朗公民的鲜血,也沾满了美国人的鲜血,他们在80年代炸毁了美国大使馆。但接下来呢?

Original English

Ronan Bergman: and better for the Iranian public. It's just the hammering of Iranian nuclear sites and the missile sites and the air defenses and the killing of people and some of them were very very bad people that had the citizens of Iran blood on their hands and American blood on their hands exploding the American embassy in the 80s. But what's next?

Mark Misetti: 解决了吗?就像我们是否正在展望中东地区的新前景?我一点也不确定,因为政权仍然存在,问题仍然存在,它们尚未解决,这不能仅仅通过言语来解决。我猜测到本周末或稍晚,美国总统将宣布胜利。

Original English

Mark Misetti: Is it solved? Like are we looking at the beginning of a new horizon to the Middle East? I'm not sure at all because the regime is still there and the problems are still there and they are not yet solved and this cannot be solved just by words. I assume that by the end of this week or maybe a little later the president

Ronan Bergman: 他会说我们已经消除了威胁。它被摧毁了。无论他使用什么短语。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: of the United States will declare victory. He would say we removed the threat. It's obliterated. Whatever phrase he uses.

Mark Misetti: 但事实是这样吗?

Original English

Mark Misetti: But is it?

Ronan Bergman: 我没有看到任何问题得到解决。我只看到更多潜在的困难和挑战。

Original English

Ronan Bergman: I don't see anything solved. I see only more potential difficulties and challenges here.

Natalie Kitrov: 好的,MarkRonan,非常感谢你们两位。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Well, Mark, Ronan, thank you both so much.

Mark Misetti: 谢谢。

Original English

Mark Misetti: Thank you.

Ronan Bergman: 谢谢你,Natalie

Original English

Ronan Bergman: Thanks, Natalie.

后记

Natalie Kitrov: 我们马上回来。这是你今天还需要知道的其他事情。周三,美以对伊朗的轰炸演变成一场更广泛的国际危机。当北约的防空系统击落一枚飞向土耳其的伊朗弹道导弹时,北约被卷入冲突。土耳其是北约成员国。一艘美国潜艇在斯里兰卡海岸击沉了一艘伊朗军舰,造成数十人死亡。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: We'll be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. On Wednesday, the USIsraeli bombardment of Iran became a wider international crisis. NATO was drawn into the conflict when its air defenses shot down an Iranian ballistic missile headed toward Turkey. A NATO member, a US submarine destroyed an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, killing dozens who were on board.

片段旁白: 他们的海军不再是一个因素。随便你怎么形容。它不复存在了。在新闻发布会上,美国国防部长Pete Hgsith表示,这次袭击展示了美国军方在试图摧毁伊朗军队时的力量和决心。

Original English

片段旁白: Their navy not a factor. Pick your adjective. It is no more. During a news conference, US Defense Secretary Pete Hgsith said that the attack demonstrated the reach and resolve of the US military as it seeks to decimate Iran's military.

Natalie Kitrov: 一艘美国潜艇击沉了一艘以为自己在国际水域安全的伊朗军舰。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: An American submarine sunk an Iranian warship that thought it was safe in international waters.

片段旁白: 相反,它被鱼雷击沉了。悄无声息的死亡。这是自第二次世界大战以来,敌舰首次被鱼雷击沉。最后,伊朗领导人似乎即将任命一位新的最高领导人,很可能是上周末被杀的已故阿亚图拉·哈米的儿子。但以色列国防部长表示,如果下一任最高领导人遵循哈米相同的意识形态,他将成为“被消灭的目标”。

Original English

片段旁白: Instead, it was sunk by a torpedo. Quiet death. The first sinking of an enemy ship by a torpedo since World War II. Finally, Iran's leaders appeared close to naming a new supreme leader, likely the son of the late Ayatollah Hami, who was killed last weekend. But Israel's defense minister said that if the next Supreme Leader followed the same ideology as Hami, he would become quote a target for elimination.

Natalie Kitrov: 今天这一集由Ricky NevetskiCaitlyn O'KeefeStella Tan制作。由Devon TaylorPaige Cowittat编辑,Chris Hel协助。包含Dan PalRowan Nemoto的音乐。我们的主题音乐由Wonderly创作。本集由Alyssa Moxley进行工程制作。The Daily就到这里。我是Natalie Kitrov。明天见。

Original English

Natalie Kitrov: Today's episode was produced by Ricky Nevetski, Caitlyn O'Keefe, and Stella Tan. It was edited by Devon Taylor and Paige Cowittat with help from Chris Hel. Contains music by Dan Pal and Rowan Nemoto. Our theme music is by Wonderly. This episode was engineered by Alyssa Moxley. That's it for the Daily. I'm Natalie Kitrov. See you tomorrow.