市场中的投机狂热：猿族全面掌控？

Hello my friends. Today is July 26 and this is Markets Weekly. Now, this past week was a pretty slow week when it came to data, but when it comes to the stock market, it was basically a perfect week. As they say, the S&P 500 (标准普尔500指数：追踪美国500家大型上市公司股票表现的指数) made new all-time highs every single day.

朋友们好。今天是7月26日，这里是《市场周报》。上周在数据方面是相当平淡的一周，但对于股市来说，基本上是完美的一周。正如人们所说，标普500指数每天都创下历史新高。

Now, today, let's talk about two things. First off, let's talk about how it seems like there is some degree of speculative frenzy in the markets where the apes (猿族：通常指在社交媒体上协调行动、推动特定股票，尤其是所谓“meme股”价格的散户投资者群体) are in full control. So I think it's time to be pretty cautious. And secondly, we also had some new political developments that are showing us the tariff endgame.

今天，我们来谈两件事。首先，我们来谈谈市场上似乎存在一定程度的投机狂热，猿族似乎完全掌控了局面。所以我认为现在是时候保持相当谨慎了。其次，我们还看到了一些新的政治动态，向我们揭示了关税战的终局。

个股异动与轧空现象

Starting with the apes in control. So looking at the market, I think there are few signs that there is a high degree of speculation here. First off, of course, you have the rise in these single name stocks that are just getting absolutely squeezed.

首先从猿族掌控市场说起。观察市场，我认为有几个迹象表明这里存在高度的投机行为。首当其冲的，当然是那些被极致“轧空”的个股股价飙升。

For example, look at Open. What is Open? Open is one of those online tech real estate companies where basically you can sell your home to Open and they'll have some kind of automated valuation and buy your home from you. These automated home buying strategies have been tried by other companies and have not been successful. And of course, Open really doesn't make money. So, Open stock has not been doing well.

例如，看看Open这只股票。Open是什么？它是一家在线科技房地产公司，基本上你可以把你的房子卖给Open，他们会通过某种自动化估值系统来购买你的房子。这种自动化购房策略其他公司也尝试过，但并未成功。当然，Open公司本身并不盈利。因此，Open的股票一直表现不佳。

And yet, you see over the past week, the stock of Open absolutely surged several hundred percent. What's happening, of course, is that the apes are getting together, coordinating on social media, buying calls (看涨期权：一种金融衍生品，赋予持有者在特定日期前以特定价格购买标的资产的权利), and making the stock surge.

然而，在过去一周里，你看到Open的股价飙升了好几百个百分点。这背后发生的事情，当然是“猿族”们聚集起来，在社交媒体上协同行动，购买看涨期权，从而推动股价飙升。

There is some method to this madness, though. It seems like they're looking for stocks that have high short interest (空头利息：指市场上被卖空但尚未被平仓的股票数量，高空头利息意味着许多投资者押注该股票价格会下跌). So, let's say that you are a more fundamentals-based guy looking at the stock, looking at the business, thinking it's not going to do well, and selling it. So, what happens? The apes come in, buy a bunch of calls, squeeze the stock higher, forces you to cover, makes the stock go even higher.

不过，这种疯狂之中也存在一些章法。他们似乎在寻找那些具有高空头利息的股票。比如说，你是一个更注重基本面的投资者，研究了这家公司，认为它前景不佳，于是做空了它的股票。结果呢？“猿族”们涌入，大量买入看涨期权，将股价推高，迫使你回补空头头寸，从而让股价涨得更高。

Honestly it's good trading if that's your motivation but of course a lot of people are just buying it because number go up. You see this in many other companies as well, in Kohl's for example and Krispy Kreme, basically companies that don't have too much going for them on a fundamental sense just kind of surge higher because you have a mob of people just buying options. This is something we've seen before, right? GME or Hertz car rental and so forth, so it seems like it's coming back to some extent.

老实说，如果你的动机就是这样，那这算是不错的交易策略。但当然，很多人买入仅仅是因为价格在上涨。你在许多其他公司身上也能看到这种情况，比如柯尔百货（Kohl's）和脆皮奶油甜甜圈（Krispy Kreme），基本上这些在基本面上没有太多亮点的公司，股价之所以飙升，就是因为有一大群人疯狂购买期权。这是我们以前见过的景象，对吧？比如游戏驿站（GME）或赫兹租车（Hertz）等等，所以看起来这种现象在某种程度上又卷土重来了。

加密国库策略与市场泡沫

In addition to that you also have a few other signs. For example, the rise of the crypto treasury companies. The person who pioneered the strategy of course is Michael Saylor (迈克尔·塞勒：MicroStrategy公司的首席执行官，以其将公司储备大量投资于比特币的策略而闻名) of MicroStrategy who, to be clear, it worked very well, very brilliant. What he would do is he would issue stock or and buy Bitcoin and that made his stock price go to the moon.

除此之外，还有其他一些迹象。例如，加密国库公司（指那些将公司部分或全部储备资产转换为加密货币，如比特币的公司）的兴起。开创这一策略的先驱当然是MicroStrategy公司的迈克尔·塞勒，必须承认，他的策略非常成功，堪称绝妙。他的做法是发行股票，然后用募集的资金购买比特币，这让他的公司股价一飞冲天。

And now a whole slew of new companies are trying this strategy where what they discovered is if they issued a hundred million dollars in stock and use that to buy $100 million in Bitcoin, the market value of their company would actually go up by two or 300 million. How does that make sense? Why does buying $1 of Bitcoin actually give you two or three dollars of value? Well, that's the part where it doesn't make sense. It's kind of a frenzy.

现在，一大批新公司正在尝试这种策略。他们发现，如果发行一亿美元的股票，并用这笔钱购买一亿美元的比特币，他们公司的市值实际上会增加两到三亿美元。这怎么说得通呢？为什么购买1美元的比特币实际上能带来两三美元的价值？嗯，这正是说不通的地方。这是一种狂热。

You see companies like this successfully do this strategy and it makes their stock market price go up although a lot of times they give part of it back. You even see new companies arrive that are pioneering these crypto strategies not with Bitcoin but with more of the altcoins (山寨币：除比特币之外的所有加密货币的统称). When asked to comment on this, Michael Saylor actually suggested that this is kind of risky. So, it didn't seem like he was too keen on these new crypto treasury management companies. But yeah, I think that's a pretty strong sign of fervor as well.

你看到这类公司成功地运用了这一策略，并使其股价上涨，尽管很多时候股价之后会有所回落。你甚至看到有新公司出现，它们开创的加密策略不是用比特币，而是用更具投机性的山寨币。当被问及对此的看法时，迈克尔·塞勒实际上表示这有些风险。所以，他似乎对这些新的加密国库管理公司并不太感冒。但是，我认为这也是市场狂热的一个相当强烈的信号。

杠杆与期权市场的信号

Traditionally, when you look at excessive speculation in the market, you also look at leverage. Historically, that's through things like margin debt (保证金债务：投资者从经纪公司借入用以购买证券的资金，是衡量市场杠杆水平的指标之一), and there are reports that margin debt is at an all-time high. But really these days what people do speculation in is in the options market and there are charts that show that 0DTE options (零日期权：指在当天到期的期权合约，是一种高风险的投机工具) are really becoming increasingly dominant popular part of the market.

传统上，当你观察市场中的过度投机时，你也会关注杠杆。历史上，这通常通过保证金债务等指标来体现，有报道称目前的保证金债务正处于历史最高水平。但如今，人们真正进行投机的地方是在期权市场，有图表显示零日期权正日益成为市场中一个主导且受欢迎的部分。

And for many stocks looking at call skew (看涨期权偏斜：衡量同一标的、同一到期日下，不同执行价格的看涨期权隐含波动率差异的指标，可以反映市场对上涨的投机情绪), so how expensive calls are relative to puts, it's also suggesting there's a lot of people who are speculating on further upside. And to be totally clear this has worked very well for them. We've skyrocketed since the April lows. But it is obviously in my opinion some sort of mania slash bubble.

对于许多股票而言，观察看涨期权偏斜——即看涨期权相对于看跌期权的昂贵程度——也表明有大量的人在投机股价会进一步上涨。需要明确的是，这种策略至今为止对他们非常有效。自四月份的低点以来，市场一路飙升。但在我看来，这显然是某种狂热或泡沫。

And how high it can go, I don't know. But eventually though, I don't know when, eventually these all end in the same way. So I think it's time to be a bit more cautious.

它能涨多高，我不知道。但最终，虽然我不知道具体是什么时候，但这类事情最终都会以同样的方式结束。所以我认为现在是时候更加谨慎一些了。

There are many narratives for what's driving this. Of course, people will talk about AI, people talk about the VG guys, the smart money guys will also say that there's a lot of volatility compression and VIX (波动率指数：衡量市场对未来30天S&P 500指数波动性预期的指标，常被称为“恐慌指数”) has been relatively low as well and that's supportive of the market. But we'll see what happens. But anyway, I'm seeing tremendous amounts of frenzy in the equity market.

对于是什么在驱动这一切，有很多种说法。当然，人们会谈论人工智能，谈论价值投资派，聪明的投资者也会说存在大量的波动性压缩，VIX指数也一直相对较低，这对市场是有支撑作用的。但未来会怎样，我们拭目以待。无论如何，我正在股票市场中看到巨大的狂热情绪。

关税终局：谈判进展及其经济影响

The second thing though we have to talk about is in part related to the first, and that is there is some reason for positive sentiment and that is we're approaching the end of the tariff negotiations.

我们要谈的第二件事与第一件事部分相关，那就是市场上也存在一些积极情绪的理由，即我们正在接近关税谈判的尾声。

Now all this began April 1st, well April 2nd on liberation day. President Trump unveiled his tariffs, scared the markets. We had a really deep deep selloff and have gone straight up since then. Now, the tariff endgame is coming this Friday because that's the deadline that the president has imposed for tariff negotiations.

这一切都始于4月1日，或者说是4月2日的解放日。特朗普总统公布了他的关税计划，惊吓了市场。我们经历了一次非常深度的抛售，但自那以后市场便一路直上。现在，关税的终局即将在本周五到来，因为那是总统为关税谈判设定的最后期限。

日本与欧盟的协议

In the past week, we had Japan make a deal and it looks like this weekend as president meets with EU leader Ursula von der Leyen, maybe we'll have an EU deal as well and that would basically wrap things up. The endgame that we're beginning to see is tariffs going to say 15%, which is what Japan got as well.

在过去的一周里，日本达成了一项协议。看起来本周末，随着总统与欧盟领导人乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩会面，我们可能也会与欧盟达成协议，那基本上就能尘埃落定了。我们开始看到的终局是关税设定在15%左右，这也和日本达成的一致。

Now 15% obviously is going to be lower than some of the feared numbers say 20, 25, 30%. For Japan's case it was definitely lower than 25%. So for them it's a win.

显然，15%的税率要低于之前人们担心的20%、25%或30%等数字。对日本来说，这肯定低于25%，所以对他们而言算是一次胜利。

And if you look at the effect of tariffs people calculate the deal that Japan got is a bit lower than what they had been. Although compared to last year though it's much higher. Last year their tariffs was say 2 or 3%. Now it looks like on an effective basis it'd be slightly below 15. So tariffs have gone up a lot but now we have clarity. We know that this is about what the president expects. The EU deal whenever they get that, it'll probably be 15% as well.

如果你分析关税的影响，人们计算出日本得到的协议比他们之前的情况要好一些。不过与去年相比，税率还是高得多。去年他们的关税大概是2%或3%。现在看来，实际有效税率会略低于15%。所以关税确实涨了很多，但现在我们有了确定性。我们知道这大概就是总统所期望的水平。欧盟的协议，无论何时达成，很可能也会是15%。

关税的经济冲击

So that's going to be a significant hike from last year. Work from the Yale budget office shows that the effective tariff rate is going to be the highest it's been in many decades. Now if you look at the actual tariff revenue that we're collecting as a proxy as to how effective these are, it's very clear that tariff revenue has surged and on an annual basis it looks like we're going to be incrementally increasing this but say two to 300 billion.

所以，这将是相较于去年的一次显著上调。耶鲁大学预算办公室的研究表明，有效关税税率将达到几十年来的最高点。如果我们把实际征收的关税收入作为衡量其有效性的一个指标，可以很清楚地看到关税收入已经激增，按年计算，我们似乎将在此基础上再增加大约两到三千亿美元。

Again we don't have the final tariff numbers yet and earlier in the year there's a lot of people front running a tariffs by importing a lot of stuff. So there's a lot of cloudiness in this data but tariff revenue is going to be a lot higher this year than the last. And ultimately that's going to have an economic impact.

需要再次强调，我们还没有最终的关税数据，而且今年早些时候有很多人通过大量进口商品来抢在关税生效前行动。所以这些数据中存在很多不确定性，但今年的关税收入肯定会比去年高很多。最终，这将产生经济影响。

We've talked about this many times. It's not straightforward that this would be inflationary. There are three people involved in this. You have the exporter, the importer, and the consumer. And who pays those tariffs? Let's say this extra two to 300 billion in tariffs this year is going to vary according to products and bargaining dynamics and so forth.

我们已经多次讨论过这个问题。关税不一定会直接导致通货膨胀。这其中涉及到三方：出口商、进口商和消费者。那么谁来支付这些关税呢？今年这额外的两三千亿关税将如何分配，取决于具体的产品、议价能力等多种因素。

We talked about last week how the tariffs on Japanese cars were basically completely paid by the Japanese auto manufacturers. Year-over-year export auto prices in Japan were down say 20% which basically makes up for the 25% tariffs that were imposed on them. But there will also be other products that are different.

我们上周谈到，对日本汽车征收的关税基本上完全由日本汽车制造商承担了。日本的汽车出口价格同比下降了约20%，这基本上抵消了对其征收的25%的关税。但其他产品的情况可能会有所不同。

There are reports that the automakers in the US, GM in particular, are noting that their profits are down a lot because of the tariffs and so in that case it's the importing company that's paying the tariffs. So they'll pay it through lower profit margins and in some cases of course the consumers will face higher prices. We have reports saying that Walmart is going to try to pass on price increases to the consumer and so that's less discretionary income for the consumer to buy other stuff.

有报道称，美国的汽车制造商，特别是通用汽车（GM），注意到他们的利润因为关税而大幅下降，所以在这种情况下，是进口公司在支付关税。他们会通过降低利润率来承担这部分成本。当然，在某些情况下，消费者将面临更高的价格。我们有报道说沃尔玛打算尝试将增加的成本转嫁给消费者，这样消费者用于购买其他商品的可支配收入就会减少。

So yes, at the end of the day, it is a tax increase, not necessarily inflationary, but definitely it's going to have a slowing impact on growth. And so although we have clarity as to what tariffs are going to be, and it's probably going to be less than some people had feared, at the end of the day, it's a lot higher than it was last year, and that's going to have an impact on growth and profit margins. How much we'll figure out in the coming quarters.

所以，是的，归根结底，这是一种增税，不一定会引发通胀，但肯定会对经济增长产生减速影响。因此，尽管我们对关税水平有了明确的预期，而且可能比一些人担心的要低，但最终它还是比去年高得多，这将对增长和利润率产生影响。具体影响多大，我们将在未来几个季度找到答案。

“买断”交易：一个新的谈判策略？

In addition to this tariff endgame, we have also something new that President Trump announced and that is part of the Japan deal was an alleged 550 billion dollar investment that Japan is going to make into the US. And President Trump is suggesting that this is going to be an investment that the president will be able to direct at his discretion and the profits of said investment is going to accrue almost entirely to the United States. In a sense, it's kind of as if he is finally getting financing for the US sovereign wealth fund (主权财富基金：由国家政府建立和拥有的，用于长期投资的金融基金).

除了关税终局，特朗普总统还宣布了一项新内容，那就是作为与日本协议的一部分，据称日本将向美国进行5500亿美元的投资。特朗普总统暗示，这将是一笔可由总统自行决定的投资，并且该投资的利润将几乎全部归美国所有。在某种意义上，这仿佛是他终于为美国的主权财富基金找到了资金。

So that means that the president could potentially have this huge pool of money that he goes and invests in industries that he thinks are good and hopefully that's not going to be in industries that are too related to people he knows.

这意味着总统可能拥有一个巨大的资金池，可以用来投资于他认为有前景的行业，希望这些投资不会与他认识的人所涉及的行业关系过于密切。

Now there is some dispute on this according to the Japanese side. They say we don't really know about this. The details are sketchy. Nothing is on paper and we thought that we would split the profits in a more equitable way. So maybe this is something that's just bluster. In the past big announcements of investments in the US have turned out to be much smaller than announced.

然而，根据日方的说法，对此存在一些争议。他们表示对此事并不知情，细节很模糊，没有任何书面文件，并且他们原以为会以更公平的方式分配利润。所以，这可能只是一种吹嘘。过去，一些宣布对美进行的大额投资，最终的实际规模都远小于宣布的数额。

So, hard to say how this is, but this does open up an additional wrinkle because at a recent press conference, President Trump also noted that in connection with his ongoing EU negotiations that the EU would have to quote unquote buy it down. That is to say, they would also have to put up money like Japan in order to get a 15% tariff rate and a trade deal with the US. So, seems like the endgame involves countries not just agreeing to a set of tariffs, but also willing to put up money for investment in the United States.

所以，很难说这到底是怎么回事，但这确实增加了一个新的复杂因素。因为在最近的一次新闻发布会上，特朗普总统还提到，在他与欧盟正在进行的谈判中，欧盟将不得不“买断”它。也就是说，他们也必须像日本一样出资，才能获得15%的关税税率和与美国的贸易协议。因此，看起来这场终局不仅涉及各国同意一套关税，还要求他们愿意出钱在美国进行投资。

So, how this shakes out, we'll find out in the coming days. It looks like we will get an EU deal. It looks like there won't be some kind of brinksmanship until the Friday deadline. There might be in the case of Canada, which the president is saying that it's just not working out there. So that looks like how it's going to shake out. Looks like we're going to have this resolved earlier than expected and we'll see the economic fallout going forward.

所以，这一切将如何发展，我们将在未来几天内见分晓。看起来我们将会达成一项欧盟协议，似乎在周五的最后期限前不会出现某种边缘政策的博弈。但在加拿大问题上可能会有，总统表示与加拿大的谈判进展不顺。所以情况大概就是这样。看起来这个问题将比预期更早得到解决，我们将看到其未来的经济影响。

The last loose end of course is China and those discussions will be ongoing and drag out. At the end of the day we need Chinese rare earths. China really likes Nvidia chips and so we kind of have trump cards on both sides and so that discussion is going to be slower and more drawn out and I think the president is just going to try to work things out slowly by continually extending the deadlines. So that seems like we're at the end of our liberation day journey.

当然，最后一个悬而未决的问题是中国，相关的讨论将会持续并拖延下去。说到底，我们需要中国的稀土。中国非常喜欢英伟达的芯片，所以双方都手握王牌。因此，这场讨论将会更慢、更持久，我认为总统会通过不断延长最后期限来慢慢解决问题。所以，我们似乎已经走到了“解放日”旅程的终点。

未来展望：美元政策与数据前瞻

Oh, one more thing that I thought was super interesting was that so now that we have tariffs, now that we have trade deals, what's next in trying to encourage the rebalancing of global trade? And President Trump kind of alluded to this when asked about what he thought about the continuing weakness of the dollar. Let's listen to what he said.

哦，还有一件事我觉得非常有趣。既然我们已经有了关税，有了贸易协议，那么在鼓励全球贸易再平衡方面，下一步是什么呢？特朗普总统在被问及对美元持续走弱的看法时，对此有所暗示。我们来听听他是怎么说的。

"When we have a strong dollar, one thing happens. It sounds good, but you don't do any tourism. You can't sell tractors. You can't sell trucks. You can't sell anything. It is good for inflation. That's about it. And we have no inflation. We've wiped out inflation. But it's an interesting question. So I will never say I like a low currency. But you remember the battles I had with the Yuan with China and with Japan. Japan being the yen. They always wanted a weak currency. They're trying to get a weak currency now. Now, it doesn't sound good, but you make a hell of a lot more money with a weaker dollar. Not a weak dollar, but a weaker dollar than you do with a strong dollar. And the first thing people that are going to notice it are the manufacturers of trucks and various other things."

“当我们拥有强势美元时，会发生一件事。听起来不错，但你做不成任何旅游业。你卖不掉拖拉机，卖不掉卡车，什么都卖不掉。它对通胀有好处，仅此而已。而我们没有通胀。我们已经消灭了通胀。但这是一个有趣的问题。所以我永远不会说我喜欢低汇率。但你记得我与中国的元和日本的日元所进行的斗争。他们总是想要弱势货币，现在他们也正试图让货币贬值。现在，这听起来不好，但用一个较弱的美元，你能赚到多得多的钱。不是弱势美元，而是比强势美元更弱的美元。首先注意到这一点的人将是卡车和其他各种产品的制造商。”

So, basically, Trump, as we all know, kind of likes a weak dollar. Now, he's going to tell you that he wants a strong dollar, but having a weak dollar is good for making money. And so we've had, as many have noted, one of the weakest starts to the dollar since 1973. And maybe that will continue because that's something that they would like to see.

所以，基本上，正如我们所知，特朗普有点喜欢弱势美元。他会告诉你他想要强势美元，但拥有弱势美元对赚钱有利。因此，正如许多人指出的那样，我们经历了自1973年以来美元最弱的开局之一。也许这种情况会持续下去，因为那是他们希望看到的。

Now, next week is going to be a week full of data. We're going to have GDP, we're going to have jobs, and we're going to have an FOMC (联邦公开市场委员会：美联储内部负责制定货币政策的机构) meeting. So, I'll be back to give my thoughts on the FOMC meeting. I think I'm going to be joining the Forward Guidance people on their live stream. So, I'm going to upload what happened there on my channel. So, all right. I'll talk to you guys on Wednesday.

下周将是数据满满的一周。我们将迎来GDP数据、就业数据，还有一次联邦公开市场委员会的会议。所以，届时我会回来分享我对FOMC会议的看法。我可能会加入Forward Guidance团队的直播。之后我会把直播内容上传到我的频道。好的，我们周三再聊。