斯托尔滕贝格:全球变局下的北约、中国与未来战争 Norges Bank Investment Management 2024-10-16

全球格局之变:一个更危险的世界

大家好,我很高兴能与延斯·斯托尔滕贝格(Jens Stoltenberg: 北约前秘书长,挪威前首相)在此相聚,他刚刚结束了在北约秘书长的任期。在担任北约秘书长之前,他曾是挪威首相。延斯,热烈欢迎您。非常感谢您的到来。我这里有一本您八年前出版的书,它涵盖了直到十年前的时期,封面还有您一张漂亮的照片。那么,自这本书问世以来,世界发生了哪些最重要的变化呢?

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Hi everyone, I'm thrilled to be here with Jens Stoltenberg, who just finished his tenure as the Secretary General of NATO. Before NATO, he served as the Prime Minister of Norway. Warm welcome, Jens. Thank you so much for having me. I have here a book you wrote, which came out eight years ago and basically covered the period until ten years ago. It has a beautiful picture of you on the front. What are the most important changes in the world since that book came out?

至少与我在北约的任务和职责相关的最重要的变化是,世界变得更加危险了。这是坏消息。好消息是,北约变得更强大,能够保护近十亿人口。当然,还有许多其他变化,但从安全角度来看,我们现在欧洲正经历一场全面战争,中东地区也爆发了一场新的、极具破坏性的冲突,存在升级的风险。此外,大国之间,如美国和中国,全球竞争显著加剧。然后,网络、混合式和恐怖主义威胁也持续不断地威胁着我们的安全。因此,从根本上说,我们生活在一个比几十年前更加不可预测、更加危险的世界。

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The most important changes, at least related to my task and responsibilities in NATO, is that the world has become more dangerous. That's the bad news. The good news is that NATO has become stronger to protect close to one billion people. Of course, there are many other changes, but seen from a security perspective, we have now a full-scale war in Europe, we have a new, very devastating conflict in the Middle East with risk of escalation, and we have significantly more global rivalry between great powers, United States and China. And then we have cyber, hybrid, terrorist threats as a constant threat to our security. So fundamentally, we live in a more unpredictable, more dangerous world than we have done for decades.

乌克兰战争:如何走向和平

如果我们谈论其中一些问题,您认为乌克兰局势将如何结束?最有可能的结局是什么?战争本质上是极其不可预测的,因此我将非常谨慎地预测它将如何结束。当然,我们都希望这场战争结束。挑战在于,结束战争最快的方式是输掉战争,但这不会带来和平,只会导致乌克兰被占领,乌克兰将不再是欧洲一个主权、独立、民主的国家,它将成为一个由莫斯科控制的国家。

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If we cover some of these points there, so how do you think the Ukraine situation will end? What's the most likely? Wars are by nature extremely unpredictable, and therefore I will be very careful predicting how that will end. But of course, we all want this war to end. The challenge is that the quickest way to end a war is to lose a war, but that will not lead to peace, that will lead to occupation of Ukraine, and Ukraine will not be a sovereign, independent, democratic nation in Europe.

因此,如果您希望战争以数百万乌克兰人仍能生活在一个自由民主社会的方式结束,那么我们需要说服普京总统(Vladimir Putin: 俄罗斯总统),他无法在战场上取胜,他必须坐下来谈判,达成一个乌克兰仍能保持主权民主国家的解决方案。我不相信我们能改变普京的想法,但我认为我们可以改变他的算计。这意味着,我不认为我们能改变他控制乌克兰的野心和目标,但我认为通过向乌克兰提供军事支持,我们可以确保俄罗斯实现这一目标的代价如此之高,以至于他们将接受一个乌克兰以某种方式获胜的解决方案。

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And it will be a country controlled by Moscow. So if you want the war to end in a way where millions of Ukrainians still can live in a free, democratic society, then we need to convince President Putin that he will not win on the battlefield, that he has to sit down and negotiate, agree a solution where Ukraine can still be a sovereign, democratic nation. And I don't believe that we can change Putin's mind, but I think we can change his calculus, meaning that I don't think we can change his ambition, his goal of trying to control Ukraine, but I think that by providing military support to Ukraine, we can ensure that the cost of achieving that goal for Russia is so high that they will accept a solution where Ukraine prevails in one way or another.

最近再次重申了不提供更多进攻性武器的决定,您对此有何看法?北约盟友已经提供了大量进攻性武器。现实是,我们当然在过去几年中逐渐改变了策略。我记得2014年我刚到北约时,一些盟友,如美国、英国、加拿大以及其他几个国家,提供了一些军事支持和培训,但几乎没有提供武器。例如,关于标枪导弹(Javelin: 一种便携式反坦克导弹)的讨论非常激烈,它在乌克兰战场上被证明极其重要。我实际上认为,在2022年全面入侵之前,我们应该做得更多。

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The decision of not giving more offensive weapons, which was kind of renewed lately, what do you think about that? Well, NATO allies have delivered a lot of also offensive weapons. The reality is that of course we have gradually changed over the years. I remember when I came to NATO in 2014, then some allies, United States, United Kingdom, a couple of other, Canada, they provided some military support, some training, but hardly any little weapons. It was a big discussion for instance about Javelins, the anti-tank weapons, which has proved extremely important on the battlefield in Ukraine. And I think actually we should have done more before the full-scale invasion in 2022.

但在2022年全面入侵之后,北约盟友提供了比普京总统预期、甚至比我们自己预期多得多的军事支持。我们曾就是否提供主战坦克进行过激烈讨论,现在盟友们提供了大量先进的现代化主战坦克,包括美国的M1艾布拉姆斯主战坦克(US Abrams Tanks: 美国陆军的主战坦克)、欧洲或德国的豹式坦克(Leopard Tanks: 德国制造的主战坦克)。我们还提供了先进的防空系统,如爱国者导弹(Patriot: 一种地对空导弹系统),以及来自英国和法国等国的远程火炮和巡航导弹,还有F-16战斗机(F-16s: 一种多用途战斗机)。因此,这种军事支持的规模和质量远超几年前任何人的预料。

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But after 2022, the full-scale invasion, NATO allies have delivered much more military support than President Putin expected and to be honest, also we expected. We had big discussions on whether we were going to deliver battle tanks. Now allies deliver a lot of advanced, modern battle tanks, including US Abrams Tanks, European or German Leopard Tanks. We deliver advanced air defense systems, Patriots, we deliver long-range artillery, also cruise missiles from for instance United Kingdom and France, and then also F-16s. So the scale and the quality of this military support is much bigger than anyone was able to foresee just a couple of years ago.

我认为盟友之间持续讨论的困境是,我们应该在多大程度上允许乌克兰使用所有这些武器打击俄罗斯境内的军事目标。盟友们有不同的政策:一些北约盟友表示没有限制,除了遵守国际法;另一些则对武器深入俄罗斯境内使用施加了一些限制。您怎么看?我认为我们需要记住,这是一场侵略战争,俄罗斯攻击了另一个国家,这是对国际法的公然违反。根据国际法,乌克兰有自卫权,自卫权包括打击侵略者(即俄罗斯)领土上的合法军事目标的权利。因此,我一直主张放宽这些限制,许多盟友也已经这样做了。北约盟友之间正在进行持续的对话,讨论在打击侵略者领土上的合法军事目标方面,他们应该在多大程度上取消所有限制。

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I think the dilemma which has, which continues to be discussed among allies, is to what extent will should we allow Ukraine to use all these weapons against military targets inside Russia? And allies have different policy. Some NATO allies have said there are no restrictions, except for also adhering to international law. Others have imposed some restrictions on the use of weapons deep into Russia. What do you think? I think we need to remember what this is, that this is a war of aggression. Russia has attacked another country, that's a blatant violation of international law. According to international law, Ukraine has the right for self-defense. Self-defense includes the right to strike legitimate military targets on the territory of the aggressor, meaning Russia. So therefore, I have argued for loosening up these restrictions, and many allies have done so. And then there is an ongoing conversation among NATO allies exactly to what extent they should remove all the restrictions when it comes to hitting legitimate military targets on the territory.

如果乌克兰不得不割让更多领土,您认为这更有可能发生吗?我非常谨慎,即使我现在已经卸任秘书长,也不愿去猜测,因为这可能会成为自我实现的预言。如果您开始说我们认为乌克兰必须这样做或割让更多领土,那么这当然会提振俄罗斯人的士气,并削弱乌克兰人的士气。尽管我知道我不再代表北约发言,但我认为我们所有人所说的话,对于我们认为乌克兰可能被迫做出的决定,都至关重要。

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If Ukraine have to recede more territory, is that more likely to happen, you think? I'm extremely careful, even though I'm now stepped down as Secret General, to speculate, because it can be self-fulfilling prophecies. If you start to say that we believe that Ukraine has to do this and that or seed more territory, then of course it can boost the morale of the Russians and reduce the morale of the Ukrainians. And even though I know that I'm not speaking on behalf of NATO anymore, I think it matters what we all say when it comes to what we believe that Ukraine also may be forced to.

从根本上说,只有乌克兰人才能决定什么是可接受的条件。他们正在付出最高的代价,每天都在牺牲人民,为他们的自由而战。我再次认为,通往和平的道路是让普京相信他无法在战场上取胜。战场上发生的事情与谈判桌上可能发生的事情之间存在着非常密切的关系。因此,如果您想要某种可接受的解决方案,让乌克兰作为一个独立国家存在,那么战场上的军事实力是说服普京他必须接受这一点的途径。当然,至于他们愿意放弃多少才能实现和平,则由乌克兰人自己决定。

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Fundamentally, it is only the Ukrainians that can decide what are acceptable conditions. They are paying the highest price, they are sacrificing people every day to fight for their freedom. And again, I think that the path to peace is to convince Putin that he cannot win on the battlefield. There is a very close relationship between what happens on the battlefield and what can happen around the negotiating table. So if you want some kind of acceptable solution where Ukraine will remain as an independent nation, then military strength on the battlefield is the way to convince Putin that he has to accept that. Then of course, it's for the Ukrainians to decide how much they are willing to give up to achieve peace.

在过去几年里,自从芬兰加入北约以来,我见过许多芬兰政治家。我想今天甚至有总统在奥斯陆。是的,您说得完全正确。芬兰总统亚历山大·斯图布(Alexander Stubb: 芬兰总统)以及许多其他芬兰政治家,他们经常与我们分享芬兰的历史。它与乌克兰不同,但有一些相似之处。他们在1939年被红军(Red Army: 苏联武装力量的陆军部分)入侵,作为一个小国,他们能够对入侵的俄罗斯或苏联军队造成更严重的损失和痛苦,因此红军未能实现其目标。但为了结束战争,芬兰不得不接受割让大约10%的领土和第二大城市维堡(Vyborg: 芬兰曾割让给苏联的城市),维堡现在是俄罗斯的一部分。

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I've met many Finnish politicians of the last couple of years since Finland now had joined NATO. I think we even have the president in Oslo today. Yeah, yeah, you're absolutely right. And Alex Stubb, the president of Finland, they always or they often and and many other Finnish politicians have in a way shared with us the history of Finland. It's different from Ukraine, but there are some parallels. They were invaded by the Red Army in 1939, and they were able to as a small country to inflict much more heavy losses and pain on the invading Russian or Soviet forces, so the Red Army didn't achieve their goals. But to end the war, Finland had to accept to give up to seed roughly 10% of their territory and their second biggest city, Vyborg, which is now part of Russia.

当然,作为回报,他们获得了持续数十年的边界和安全。我并不是说这与乌克兰的情况相似,也不是说北约成员国身份。您给继任者马克·吕特(Mark Rutte: 荷兰前首相,北约新任秘书长)最重要的建议是什么?首先,我一直非常谨慎地不提供任何建议,因为我只是不认为卸任的人应该,尤其不应该公开地,明确提供建议等等。我非常信任马克,他是一位伟大的领导者。他担任首相已有14年,当然,领导联盟、寻求妥协,我认为这是担任北约秘书长的最佳资格,要懂得如何调和不同的观点。

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But of course, in return they gained borders and security that has lasted for decades. I'm not saying that this is the parallel for Ukraine and a NATO membership. What's been the most important advice you've given your successor, Mark Rutte? First of all, I've been very careful giving any advice because I just don't think that, you know, people are leaving a position should be to, especially not in public, to explicit on advice and so on. I have great trust in Mark. He's a great leader. He has been prime minister for I think it's 14 years, and of course, just to lead coalitions, to find compromises, I think is the best way to qualify to become a Secret General NATO to know how to reconcile different views.

但我不能否认,当然,任何北约秘书长最重要的任务都是让这个大家庭团结在一起。我们有32个盟友,我们并非总能在所有问题上达成一致。因此,他的主要任务是确保尽管存在这些分歧,我们仍能围绕保护和捍卫彼此的核心任务团结起来。

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But but I I cannot hide that of course the most important task for any Secor General NATO is to keep this big family together. And we are 32 allies, and we don't always agree on all issues. So his main task is to ensure that despite these differences, that we are able to rally around the core task to protect and defend each other.

中国的崛起与挑战

在过去几年里,您对中国的看法变得更加直言不讳。您有哪些担忧?首先,我想说,如果您读过那本书,我读了两遍,我很喜欢。我曾多年来一直非常相信中国。我对此印象极其深刻。我记得我在85年或86年,也就是80年代中期访问中国,我对邓小平(Deng Xiaoping: 中国改革开放的总设计师)所做的改变以及他们如何开放经济印象深刻。中国的经济增长改变了世界,部分原因是中国人民摆脱了贫困,数亿人脱贫,但实际上对世界其他地区也很重要,它创造了一个巨大的新市场,为全球经济提供了大量产品。挪威也从中受益,我们向中国市场或全球市场出售了大量能源、石油和天然气,然后我们从中国购买了许多物美价廉的商品。因此,这对中国和世界其他地区来说都是一个巨大的成功故事。

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You have over the last few years become more vocal about China. What are the concerns you have? First, I would like to say that if you instance read that book, so I read it twice, yeah, yeah, love it. I know I was a great believer in China for many years. And I was extremely impressed. I remember I visited China in '85 or '86, the middle of the '80s, and I was extremely impressed by the changes that Deng did and how they were opening up their economy, how the economic growth of China changed the world, partly for the people in China, lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, but also actually important for the rest of the world by creating a big new market, by providing a lot of products to the global economy. Norway benefited, we sold a lot of energy, oil, gas, into the Chinese market or global market, and then we bought a lot of things from China, good price. So that has been a great success story for China and for the rest of the world.

我不能确切地说我的观点何时开始改变,但我记得当挪威诺贝尔和平奖委员会在2010年将和平奖授予一位中国异议人士时,中国政府的反应让我非常失望。他们实际上对挪威实施了严厉制裁,行为非常过分,他们甚至要求我们道歉。这种行为相当令人震惊。当然,在我来到北约之后,在过去几年里,我们看到了一个更加强硬的中国,试图主导和控制南海。他们实际上在海牙的国际法院败诉了,所以他们在那里所做的是违反国际法的行为,威胁邻国,威胁台湾。中国正在大力投资新的先进武器,包括核武器,而且没有任何透明度。

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Then I cannot say exactly when my views started to change, but I remember I was very disappointed the way China reacted when the Norwegian Nobel Peace Prize committee awarded the Peace Prize to a Chinese dissident, I think it was in 2010, and then they actually imposed heavy sanctions against Norway and behaved very, they wanted us to apologize, and that behavior was quite shocking. And then of course, after I arrived in NATO and over the last years, we have seen a much more assertive China trying to dominate, control the South China Sea. They have lost actually in the International Court in The Hague, so what they do there is a violation of international law, threatening neighbors, threatening Taiwan, and China is investing heavily in new advanced weapons, including nuclear weapons, without any transparency.

当然,在乌克兰,我们看到安全并非区域性,而是全球性的,因为中国是俄罗斯对乌克兰发动侵略战争的主要支持者,它为俄罗斯提供了微电子产品和零部件,用于制造他们在乌克兰使用的炸弹和导弹。因此,俄罗斯和中国之间日益紧密的结盟当然是我们担忧的原因之一。

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And then of course, in Ukraine, what we see there is that security is not regional, security is global, because China is the main enabler of Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine, by providing the microelectronics, the components for Russians to build the bombs and the missiles they're using in Ukraine. So the closer and closer alignment between Russia and China, of course, is one of the reasons why we are concerned.

我再补充一点,那就是,当我担任北约秘书长时,我清楚地记得我们从未说过中国是敌人或对手。我们需要在气候变化等问题上与中国接触,他们当然必须成为全球经济的一部分,未来也希望能在军备控制方面合作。但我们必须保持清醒,不要天真,不要重蹈覆辙,例如在俄罗斯问题上,我们曾过度依赖俄罗斯的天然气。我们不应该过度依赖来自中国的特定商品或技术。

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Let me add one more thing, and that is that when I was Secretary General NATO, I remember very well that we didn't say that China is an enemy or an adversary. We need to engage with China on issues related to climate change, they have to be part of the global economy, of course, and in the future, hopefully also arms control. But we, but we have to be not, it's important that we're not naive and not make the same mistakes as we did for instance when it comes to Russia being over dependent on gas from Russia, we should not be over dependent on specific commodities or technology from China.

世界上独裁者之间联系日益紧密,这对西方世界意味着什么?这意味着我们必须团结一致。当我们看到独裁者们日益结盟时,我们必须团结。当然,这部分是指我们,也就是部分北约盟友,即大西洋两岸的32个国家,以及其他至少不想成为某种独裁联盟一部分的国家。乌克兰也许是最明显的例子:俄罗斯对侵略战争负有责任,而这场战争的主要武器提供者和支持者是朝鲜、伊朗和中国。这不是空话,这是真实存在的,并在战场上产生了影响。我们还看到俄罗斯和中国在日本周边以及世界其他地区进行更多联合演习。因此,这是一个真正的全球图景,这使得北约盟友团结一致,并与世界各地的伙伴,包括韩国、日本和许多其他国家合作,变得更加重要。

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The fact that there are stronger and stronger links between the autocrats in the world, what are the what are the implications for the Western world? That we have to be together when we see that the autocrats are more and more aligned. And then of course, that's partly we, meaning partly NATO allies, so 32 nations on the both Atlantic, but also with other countries which at least don't want to be part of kind of autocratic alliance. And again, Ukraine is perhaps the clearest example. Russia is responsible for war aggression. The main providers of weapons and enablers of that war is North Korea, Iran and China. And this is not rhetoric, this is this is this is real and makes a difference on the battlefield. And we also also see how Russia and China are exercise you more together, also around Japan, and parts of the world. So so this is really a global picture that makes it even more important that of course NATO allies stand together, but also that we work with partners all around the world, including South Korea, Japan and many other countries.

您如何看待目前台湾周边的活动?我们看到中国一再重复各种威胁,既有言语上的,也有这些备受瞩目的演习,他们实际上正在演练如何入侵台湾。这将是极其危险的,这种言论也是危险的。因此,重要的是我们不要使用军事力量来改变台湾及周边的现状。那里生活着数百万人。北约盟友承认这一点,挪威也承认只有一个中国,但我们也支持人民有权生活在一个民主开放社会中的理念。我们对香港也有同样的理念,即“一国两制”,香港应该成为中国民主的一部分,但这并没有持续很久。当然,如果生活在台湾的数百万人经历与香港人民过去几年相似的遭遇,那将是一场悲剧。

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How do you read them the activities around Taiwan just now? Well, I we see that China again and again repeat different threats, both in rhetoric, but also with these very high-profile exercises. We actually exercising how to invade Taiwan, and that will be extremely dangerous, and the rhetoric is is dangerous. Therefore, it is important that we that military force is not used to change status quo in and around Taiwan. There are millions of people living there. NATO allies recognize that, and Norway recognize that there's one China, but but we also support the idea of people having the right to live in a democratic and opposite society. We had the same idea with Hong Kong, that was two systems in one nation, that Hong Kong should be some kind of democratic part of China. That didn't last for very long, and of course it will be a tragedy of millions of people living in Taiwan experience something similar to what the people of Hong Kong has experienced over the last years.

商业领袖和我们投资者应该如何思考与中国打交道?这是一个极其困难的问题,但我认为仅仅意识到存在两难境地并自觉地面对这些困境会有所帮助。我一直并且将继续是自由贸易的坚定信徒,我大部分政治生涯都在为自由贸易协定而努力,包括开放的欧洲市场。我相信全球化和自由贸易对我们所有人都有益。

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How should the Business Leaders and we as investors think about engaging with China? This is extremely difficult question, but I think just to be aware that there are dilemmas and to be conscious about those dilemmas helps. I have been and I continue to be a strong believer in free trade, and most of my political life I really worked for free trade agreements, including the open European market, and I believe that globalization, free trade benefits us all.

话虽如此,自由比自由贸易更重要,有时你必须认识到,如果自由贸易的代价是损害自由,你就不能拥有自由贸易。一个例子就是俄罗斯天然气。直到2022年,许多欧洲政府认为从俄罗斯购买天然气是一个商业问题,而不是一个政治问题。政治家不应该干预欧洲商业公司与俄罗斯商业公司之间的商业交易。事实证明这是大错特错,因为从俄罗斯购买天然气不仅仅是一个商业问题,至少远不止一个商业问题。它是一个安全漏洞,俄罗斯在全面入侵乌克兰后利用了这一点,他们试图通过使用天然气来胁迫欧洲盟友停止支持乌克兰。我们不应该在中国问题上重蹈覆辙。

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Having said that, freedom is more important than free trade, and sometimes you have to recognize that you cannot have free trade if it, if the cost is that you actually undermine freedom. And one example is Russian gas. Until 2022, many European governments meant that buying gas from Russia was a commercial issue, it was not a political issues. Politicians should stay out of a commercial deal between commercial companies in Europe with commercial companies in Russia. That proved very wrong because to buy gas from Russia is not a commercial issue, at least much more than a commercial issue. It was a security vulnerability that Russia utilized after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. They tried to coerce European allies from supporting Ukraine by using the gas, and we should not repeat the same mistakes with China.

我们最终陷入俄罗斯天然气那种境地真是令人惊讶。是的,这并不令人惊讶,但我认为我们需要记住,当时普遍的欧洲观点是,与俄罗斯进行所有形式的贸易都是一件好事。我曾部分认同这种观点,我曾支持与俄罗斯贸易,也曾支持与中国贸易,几乎没有限制。然后我逐渐看到,尤其是俄罗斯,但在某种程度上中国也利用贸易作为政治工具。因此,政治家有责任制定一些法规和法律,以确保我们不会犯下真正的大错。但在这些法规之内,每个私营商业公司也必须做出判断。

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It's quite amazing that we ended up in that situation actually with Russian gas. Yeah, yeah, it wasn't amazing, but I think we need to remember that it was quite common European view that that we that that trade with that all kind of trade with Russia was a good thing. And again, I have been partly part of that that view. I have been in favor of trade with Russia, I've been in favor of trade with China, with very little restrictions. Then gradually I saw how especially Russia, but also to some extent China, has used trade as a political tool. And therefore the politicians have responsibilities to put in some regulations, laws, to ensure that we don't make the really big mistakes. But within those regulations, there has to also be judgment by each and individual private commercial company.

两极化的做法是行不通的:我们不能拥有绝对开放和自由的贸易,必须有一些安全考量作为决策的一部分。但另一方面,我们也不能孤立中国。因此,找到这种平衡——既有一些贸易和经济关系,又不会让自己过于脆弱——我无法给出确切答案,但政府与公司之间就如何找到这种平衡进行对话,是至少找到最佳前进方向的最佳途径。

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And and the dilemma is that the the extremes will not work. We cannot have absolutely open and free trade. There has to be some security considerations part of those decisions. But on the other hand, we cannot isolate China. So to find this balance where we have some trade, some economic relations, but without making ourself too vulnerable. I cannot give the exact answer, but the dialogue between governments, companies on how to find this balance is the best way to try to at least find the best way forward together.

中东:两国家方案的希望

最后一个热点问题是中东。您认为它将如何发展?预测乌克兰局势已经很困难,预测中东局势则更难。我们现在看到的是一场悲剧,它很危险,而且存在进一步升级的风险,特别是伊朗,它多年来一直破坏该地区的稳定,并将继续这样做。

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Last hotpot, Middle East, how do you think that will play out? It's difficult to predict Ukraine, even harder to predict the Middle East, and what we see now is a tragedy. It's dangerous, and there is risk of further escalation, and especially with Iran, which has destabilized the region for many years and continue to do so.

作为挪威人,我认为重要的是要记住,1993年我们达成了奥斯陆协议(Oslo Accord: 旨在解决巴以冲突的一系列协议),多年来它受到了严厉批评,但我仍然相信,这在某种程度上是唯一能够创造某种持久解决方案的途径,那就是两国方案(two-state solution: 解决巴以冲突的方案,即建立一个独立的巴勒斯坦国与以色列国并存)。你需要一个以色列国,也需要一个巴勒斯坦国。这并不容易,但像我们现在这样继续下去的替代方案是绝对不可行的。因此,有时危机能创造寻找新解决方案的动力,希望至少我们现在在中东所看到的情况能促使人们重新努力寻找两国方案。

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As a Norwegian, I think it's important to remember that in 1993 we had the Oslo Accord, which has been heavily criticized since for many years, but I still believe that that's in a way the only way that can create some kind of lasting solution, and that's a two-state solution. You need a state for the Israelis, and you need a Palestinian or state for the Palestinians. It's not easy, but the alternative to continue as we do now is absolutely not viable. So therefore, sometimes crisis creates the momentum to find new solutions, and hopefully at least one thing that can come out of what we see in the Middle East now is a renewed effort to find a two-state solution.

欧盟防务与北约:合作而非竞争

有一些声音希望欧盟在防务政策中扮演更重要的角色,您对此有何看法?我的观点是,如果做得对,那非常好;如果做得不对,那非常糟糕。那么什么是正确的方式呢?正确的方式是欧盟应该做得更多,他们也已经开始加大了力度,例如在加强国防工业方面,这意味着克服欧洲国防工业的碎片化,增加国防开支,并普遍加强欧洲的防御能力,这也将加强北约。

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There are some voices that want the EU to play a more important part in defense policy, what is your view on that? My view is that if it's done in the right way, it's very good. If it's done in the wrong way, it's very bad. So what's the right way? And the right way is that EU should do more, and they and and they have started to step up when it comes to for instance strengthening the defense industry, meaning overcoming the fragmentation of the European Defense industry, to increase defense spending, and to and to in general strengthen European defenses, meaning that that that will also strengthen NATO.

生活在欧盟的96%的人口都生活在北约国家,所以这或多或少是一回事。不好的做法是制造替代和竞争性结构,并支持欧盟保卫欧洲的理念。但您能看到有些人支持这种做法,考虑到美国的立场吗?是的,但我认为那很危险。我认为任何试图分裂或分化欧洲与北美洲的尝试都会损害我们的安全,因为我们生活在一个更危险的世界,如果我们单打独斗,我们将变得更弱,更脆弱。

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96% of the people living in the European Union, they live in a NATO country, so that will be more or less the same. What is not good is to create alternative and competing structures, and to and to underpin the idea of the European Union defending Europe. But can you see that some people are in favor of this given the US position? Yes, but I think that's that's dangerous. I think that any attempt to in a way split or divide Europe from North America will undermine our security because we live in a more dangerous world and and if we go alone, we will be weaker and more vulnerable.

欧盟无法保卫欧洲。北约80%的国防开支来自非欧盟的北约盟友,这当然包括美国,还有重要的盟友加拿大,以及北约第二大国防开支国英国。此外,这还关乎地理位置:南部的土耳其对于打击ISIS(Islamic State of Iraq and Syria: 伊拉克和叙利亚伊斯兰国,一个恐怖组织)、打击恐怖主义,以及与伊拉克和叙利亚接壤都极其重要。北部的挪威和冰岛,也许不是最大的北约盟友,但对跨大西洋联系非常重要。因此,地理和资源清楚地表明,欧盟应该发展某种独立防务的理念只会削弱和重复北约的结构。北约结构将北美和欧洲团结在一起,是保卫欧洲的唯一途径。我们团结一致,拥有世界50%的军事力量和50%的经济市场。因此,只要我们团结一致,北美和欧洲就会安全。

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And the European Union cannot defend Europe. 80% of NATO's defense expenditure comes from non-EU NATO allies, that's of course United States, but also Canada, a big ally, the United Kingdom, the second biggest defense spender in NATO, but also this is about geography. Turkey in the South, extremely important for fighting ISIS, fighting terrorism, bordering Iraq and Syria. In the North, Norway in Iceland, perhaps not the biggest NATO allies, but very important for the transatlantic link. So so so geography and resources makes it clear that this idea that EU should develop some kind of independent defense will just undermine and duplicate the NATO structures, and the NATO structures has to North America and Europe together is the only way to defend Europe. We are together, we are 50% of the world's military might and 50% of the world's economic market. So as long as we stand together, North America and Europe will be safe.

太空与人工智能:未来战争的新领域

有很多问题。是的,世界太复杂了。确实如此。从战争的角度来看,太空正在发生什么?首先,我认为我们看到的是太空武器化日益加剧,太空发生的事情对地球上发生的事情变得越来越重要。这对于通信、全球定位系统(GPS: 全球卫星定位系统)、网络以及当然还有许多乌克兰军事行动所依赖的太空卫星来说是显而易见的。任何未来的冲突,太空都将是重要的。

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Yeah, a lot of issues. Yeah, well, there are so the world is so complex, right? It is, it is. What's going on in space from a Warfare point of view? So first, I think what we see is that is more and more weaponization of space, and what happens in space, space matters more and more for what's going on on the earth. That's obvious for communications, GPS, cyber, and then of course, targeting a lot of military operations in Ukraine are dependent on satellites in space, and any future conflict, space will be important.

我们还看到俄罗斯和中国正在发展可实际用作进攻性武器的能力,这是一个危险的发展。同样,需要透明度,需要军备控制,也需要盟友和伙伴团结一致共同解决这些问题。

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What we also then see is that again, Russia and China are developing capabilities that can actually be used as offensive weapons, and this is a dangerous development. And again, there's a need for transparency, there is a need for Arms Control, and there is a need also for for allies and partners to stand together to address these issues together.

在某种程度上与此相关的是人工智能(AI: Artificial Intelligence),当涉及到战争时,它会带来哪些问题?美国有些人说我们应该把人工智能融入我们所做的一切,融入所有武器、所有汽车、所有东西,以在这场斗争中击败中国人。您如何看待人工智能对战争的影响?我不得不承认,我读过并听过许多专家解释人工智能,但我仍然难以完全理解其全部含义。但我认为显而易见的是,人工智能已经并将更深刻地改变战争的性质,其根本性变革可能不亚于工业革命。

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In a way, a bit related to that, AI, what are the issues surrounding that when it comes to Warfare? Some people in America say that we should build AI into everything we do, into all the weapons, all the cars, everything, right, to beat the Chinese in this kind of fight. What how do you see AI impact Warfare? Also, I have to admit that I have read and and listened to many experts explaining about AI, and and and I still struggle to fully understand the full implications. But I think what is obvious that AI has and will even more so in the future change nature of warfare, perhaps as fundamental as the Industrial Revolution did.

因为你必须明白,如果你从凯撒(Caesar: 古罗马军事统帅和政治家)时代到拿破仑(Napoleon: 法国军事家和政治家)时代,士兵们实际上可以参与其中。参与罗马帝国或部分罗马帝国的士兵,他们实际上可以在战场上发挥作用,在拿破仑战争期间,因为他们拥有当时适用的技术。然后从拿破仑战争到第一次世界大战,一切都随着工业革命被应用于战争而改变。我认为我们现在看到了类似的情况,一个我们尚未完全理解的根本性转变,但自主系统、面部识别、无人机、利用人工智能的网络攻击,都有可能极大地改变战争,以至于很难完全理解其全部含义。

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Because you have to understand that if you go to if you go to the from from from from Caesar to Napoleon, the soldiers could actually participate. The the the the soldiers participating in the Roman Empire or part of the Roman Empire, they could actually make a difference on the battlefield during the Napoleonic War, because they had they had the technology that actually was applicable also at that time. Then from Napoleonic war to the first world, everything first world war, everything changed with the Industrial Revolution being implemented into Warfare. I think we see something similar now, a fundamental shift where we don't fully understand, but but but autonomous systems, facial recognition, drones, cyber attacks by using also AI is has the potential of changing Warfare so much that it's very hard to fully understand the full implications.

我们已经在乌克兰战场上看到了这一点。北约运营的一些无人机和监视系统也使用人工智能来处理信息,这已经不是秘密。因此,这已经开始了,但我们只看到了战争性质根本性变化的开端。有趣的是,过去一周获得的两个诺贝尔奖,化学奖和物理学奖,都有人工智能的基础。因此,它确实正在改变许多事物。

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We have we have already seen it on the battlefield in Ukraine. It's not the secret that some of the drones and the surveillance systems that NATO operates also uses AI to process information. So this is a this has already started, but we only seen the beginning of a fundamental change of the natural Warfare. Interestingly, the two Nobel prizes that were won over the last week in chemistry and physics, you know, have AI underpinnings. So it is really changing a lot of things.

但我们在欧洲对人工智能的过度监管是否会阻碍我们的防御能力?到目前为止,我还没有听到国防工业抱怨这一点,但这也许会发生。我认为,每当我们接触新技术时,挑战和困境在于,一方面我们希望有道德标准、透明度和法规来防止重要技术被滥用;另一方面,如果我们只对我们自己,即欧洲或北美和欧洲的西方联盟施加限制,而我们的对手却没有限制,那么我们当然只会让自己变得更加脆弱。

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But the fact that we regulate AI so much in Europe is that holding back our defense capabilities? So far, I've not heard the defense industry complaining about that, but but it maybe. And and I think the challenge, the dilemmas every time we we we approach new technologies is that in one way we want ethical standards, we want transparency, we want regulations to prevent the misuse of important technology. On the other hand, if we only impose restrictions on ourselves, being Europe or or North American and Europe, Western Alliance, but but our adversaries, they have no restrictions, then of course, we can just make ourself more vulnerable.

从根本上说,这与我们面对核武器时所面临的困境非常相似。当然,核武器具有极大的破坏性,有可能真正摧毁我们今天所知的人类生命。因此,从这个角度来看,反对核武器非常容易,我也希望有一个没有核武器的世界。挑战在于,只要它们存在,我认为当我们拥有核武器来威慑对手使用这些武器对抗我们时,我们就会更安全。因此,单方面裁军是危险的。

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Fundamentally, this is very much the same dilemmas we have faced with nuclear weapons. Of course, nuclear weapons are extremely devastating, the potential to really destroy human life in the way we know it today. So in that way, it's very easy to be against nuclear weapons, and and and I would like to have a world without any nuclear weapons. The challenge is that as long as they exist, I think we are safer when we have nuclear weapons to deter the adversary of using those weapons against us. So unilateral disarmament is dangerous.

好的做法,以及我们应该努力实现的目标,是平衡、透明、多边的军备控制,这适用于核武器,但从根本上说,它也适用于所有其他技术,例如人工智能和网络。我们已经或多或少地触及了这些问题,因为网络和人工智能是相互关联的。这表明战争和冲突可以在许多领域发生。在过去,我们有空中、海上和陆地,但现在我们有了太空作为一个领域,网络作为一个领域。但我们在网络方面是否拥有足够强大的进攻能力,还是我们只是持续地进行攻击和防御?

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What it is good and what you should strive for is balanced, transparent, multilateral arms control that applies for nuclear weapons, but fundamentally, it also applies for all other technologies, for instance, AI and cyber. Well, in one way we have all touched upon it because cyber and AI is interlinked, and it just demonstrates that warfare conflicts can take place in many domains. In the old times, we had in way air, sea and land, but now we have space as a domain and cyber as domain. But do we have strong enough offensive capabilities in cyber or are we just continuous attack and defend?

不,这些都是敏感问题,我知道有些国家非常不愿过多谈论它们。但我知道,而且这也不是秘密,北约盟友也拥有进攻能力。我想我们称之为“国家效应”,但这只是同一个词的不同说法。我曾有过一次非常有趣的经历,我亲眼看到一个盟国如何使用网络进攻能力来攻击ISIS。那是在2016年或2017年,我当时在一个网络指挥中心,他们实际在那里使用网络进攻能力来攻击ISIS。那次行动极其有效,北约盟友利用网络摧毁了伊拉克和叙利亚境内ISIS的网络。

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No, again, these are sensitive issues, and I know that some some countries are very reluctant to speak too much about it. But I know and it's not the secret that NATO allies also have offensive capabilities. I think we call them National effects, but it's only different word for the same. And I had the the very interesting experience when I actually saw in one of the allot countries how they used, I was actually in the kind of Command Center, cyber Command Center, where they actually used cyber offensive capabilities to attack ISIS. This was back in 2016 or 17, and that was extremely effective, how NATO Ally used cyber to take down the Cyber networks of ISIS in Iraq and in Syria.

当然,那也许不是你可能面对的最先进的对手,但当然存在进攻能力,因为网络现在是一个领域,就像空中、海上、陆地和其他领域一样,而且是一个真正的全球领域。存在一些问题。一个问题是,在网络领域,归因更难。因此,面对一次全面的网络攻击,你将面临的第一个挑战实际上是确定谁在攻击你。

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Then of course, that's perhaps the most not the most advanced adversary that you can face, but of course there are offensive capabilities because cyber is now a domain as air, sea, land and the other domains are and a truly global domain. There are some problems. One problem is that attribution is harder in cyber, so one of the first challenge you will face with a with a full-fledged Cyber attack is to actually decide who is attacking you.

其次,另一个挑战是,冲突与非冲突之间的界限变得更加模糊。当发生网络攻击时,你何时必须触发第五条(Article Five: 北约集体防御条款)?你何时必须宣战?因为网络攻击几乎每天都在以不同的方式发生。那么,你何时超越了会触发武装部队、或者北约联盟全面回应的门槛呢?法国政治家乔治·克列孟梭(Georges Clemenceau: 法国政治家,曾任法国总理)曾说:“战争太重要了,不能只交给将军们。”您曾将其改述为:“商业太重要了,不能只交给商业领袖。”您这是什么意思?

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Second, the other challenge is that is that um it's it's it's there's a much more more much blur more blurred line between conflict and non-conflict. When when when do you have to trigger Article Five? When do you have to declare war when you have a Cyber attack? Because Cyber attack is something that's goes on almost every day in different ways. And when when do you surpass the threshold of something which which will trigger a full response from yeah from the armed forces, from perhaps or or NATO alliance? So the French statesman Clement S. said war is too important to be left of generals, and you have paraphrased this by saying business is too serious to be left to Business Leaders alone. What do you what do you mean by that?

我的意思是,我相信自由贸易,我相信私人企业,但我认为一些与商业决策相关的问题太重要了,不能仅仅留给商业决策或考量。我们再次提到了最近的例子,比如来自俄罗斯的天然气,或者我们对来自中国商品的过度依赖,或者我们将关键技术出口给威权国家。这可能是一笔好的商业交易,但它会损害或危及我们自身的安全。或者,例如,允许威权国家控制关键基础设施,这可能是一笔好的商业交易,但可能会使我们变得脆弱。这就是我所说的“太重要了,不能只交给商人”的意思。

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I mean by that that um I believe in free trade, I believe in private business, but I believe that um some of the issues related to commercial decisions are too important to be left to commercial decisions or considerations alone. And again, we have touched upon the the most recent examples from from Russia or over dependence on commodities from China or the export of key technologies from us to authoritarian powers. It may be a good business deal, but it will be undermining or dangerous for our own security or for instance, allow authoritarian powers to control critical infrastructure. Again, maybe good business deals, but make us but make but may potentially make us vulnerable. So this is what I mean by it's too important to be left to businessmen alone.

美国风险投资公司加大了在国防领域的投入,但欧洲却没有这样做,尽管北约也有风险投资部门。您如何看待这种发展?我认为我们需要更多地投资于我们的国防工业。我们还需要认识到,我们需要风险投资,我们需要创新。这就是北约加大与私营企业合作力度的原因,以确保我们保持几十年来西方国家一直享有的技术优势,并帮助确保我们的安全。

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A US Venture Capital firms have ramped up efforts within defense, but we haven't really done the same in Europe, even though NATO has Venture Capital arm, right? Yes, how how do you see this developing? Well, I I think that we need um we need to invest more in our defense industry, and we also need to realize that we need Venture Capital, we need Innovation. And that's the reason why NATO, again, I'm now stepped down, but I'm sure that Mark, the current Secretary General will follow up on this, has stepped up the efforts to work with private business to ensure that we maintain the technological Edge which has been the benefit of Western countries for decades and help to ensure our security.

我们总是拥有最先进的技术,但现在情况已不再那么明显,尤其是在中国经济及其发展新技术并将其应用于国防生产的能力方面。几十年来还发生了另一个变化:早在40年代、50年代、60年代,甚至70年代,大部分国防技术都是由政府开发的。核武器是美国曼哈顿计划(Manhattan Project: 二战期间美国研发原子弹的秘密计划)这样的大型国家项目,GPS和互联网实际上都是政府资助、政府控制的实体和研究项目的结果。

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We always had the most advanced technologies that is not so obvious anymore, especially in of the Chinese economy and and their ability to also develop new technologies and use those Technologies in their defense production. Um, there's also an other change that has happened over decades. Back in the 40s and 50s and 60s, perhaps even the 70s, most of the defense technology was developed by the government. Nuclear was a big state-run program, Manhattan program in the US, GPS, these kind of internet was actually result of government finan government controlled entities, research programs.

现在情况完全改变了,大多数先进技术都是由私人企业、私人公司开发的,例如人工智能、网络、整个硅谷、以及SpaceX(SpaceX: 美国太空探索技术公司)等。所有这些现在都是私营的。但政府和我们的国防部门,当然仍然是国家责任,却完全依赖这些私营部门。因此,我们需要与私营企业合作,以确保我们的军队在未来保持技术领先,拥有最好的军队。

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This has totally changed. Now most of the advanced and Technologies are developed in private business, in private companies, AI, cyber, the the whole Silicon Valley, the whole the whole and SpaceX, all of these things are now private. So but but the governments and our defense sector, which is of course still State responsibilities are totally dependent. So we need to work with the private business to ensure that um we keep as militaries the the the the technological lead to ensure that we have the best armies in the future.

挪威主权财富基金:成功的经济规划

是的,让我们换个话题,谈谈更令人愉快的事情。在挪威,我们有一个叫做“支出规则”的规定,您作为经济学学生时就开始研究它,后来又作为财政部长和首相参与其中。这个规则规定了挪威主权财富基金每年可以支出多少来支持预算。它确实是这个国家经济规划的基石。那么,是什么启发您制定这个规则的呢?

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Yes, let's change tag here and move into happier territories. We have something in Norway called the spending rule, which you first as a student of Economics worked on, then as a minister of finance and prime minister and so on, and it's a rule which tells how much of the Norwegian Sovereign wealth fund can be spent every year to support the budget, and it's really been a Cornerstone in the economic planning in this country. Now what what inspire you to create this rule?

当时我们认识到,挪威将从石油和天然气中获得大量收入,远超我们的预期。因此,当我在2000年担任首相时,我们实际上只获得了几年的石油净收入。第一笔石油净收入是在1996年进入挪威的,一开始数额很小。后来很明显,我们需要某种方式来决定我们可以支出多少。我们非常担心我们所说的“荷兰病”(Dutch disease: 经济学概念,指自然资源出口繁荣导致本国其他产业衰退的现象),即支出过多。

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It was the understanding that Norway was going to get a lot of revenues from the oil and gas and much bigger revenues than we expected. And therefore, when I was prime minister in 2000, then we actually had only net oil revenues only for a few years. The first net oil revenues came to Norway in 1996. In the beginning, they were quite small. Then it was obvious that we needed we needed some way of deciding how much we could spend, and we were very afraid of what we refer to as Dutch disease, to spend too much.

因此,我们开始了一场部分是学术性、部分是政治性的讨论,探讨如何建立一个财政规则来规定我们可以支出多少石油收入。目的实际上是双重的:一是确保不仅我们这一代,而且未来几代人都能从我们在大陆架上发现的石油和天然气资源中受益,这是一种长期视角。另一个建立财政规则和养老基金的原因是,确保我们能够稳定经济,将收入与支出分开,防止经济过热。

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And therefore, we started partly the kind of academic, but also then a political discussion on how to establish a fiscal rule for how much of the oil revenues we could spend. And the purpose was actually twofold: one was to ensure that not only our generation, but also future generations get the benefit of the oil and gas resources that we are found on our continental shelf, that's a kind of long-term perspective. The other reason to establish a fiscal rule and the and the pension fund was to ensure that we could stabilize the economy to separate earnings from spending and prevent overheating of the economy.

因此,我们建立了养老基金,第一笔资金于1996年拨入养老基金。但也许同样重要的是这个财政规则,我们决定所有石油和天然气收入都将进入挪威养老基金,然后我们唯一可以支出的是金融回报,我们估计平均每年收益率为3%。因此,财政规则规定我们平均每年只应支出估计为3%的财政回报。这为挪威带来了很好的服务。

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And therefore, we we established the pension fund, and the first money was allocated to the pension fund in '96. But perhaps as important was this fiscal rule where we decided that all the oil and gas revenues was going to go into Norwegian pension fund, and then that the only thing we're going to spend was the financial return, which we estimate to 3% in yield terms per year as an as an average. And therefore the fiscal rule says that we should only spend on average the fiscal return 3% estimated. And that has served Norway very well.

围绕如此庞大的资源支出达成政治共识,这本身就是一项壮举,也可能是该基金的主要成功之一。它是否按您预想的方式运作了?是的,如果说有什么不同的话,那就是它运作得甚至更好,部分原因是该基金比我们预期的要大得多。原因有很多:大陆架上的石油和天然气产量更高,价格更高,而且我们也有很好的投资,因为像您这样的人能够很好地管理基金。因此,所有这些因素的结合使得基金规模更大,从而也使得财政规则更加重要。

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It's quite a feat to manage to get political consensus around the spending of such vast resources, and probably one of the successes of well, one of the main successes of the fund. Has it worked the way you thought? Yes, and if anything, it worked even better, because partly because the fund has become much bigger than we expected for many reasons. Oil and gas production at the continental shelf has been bigger, prices have been higher, and we also have good investments because of people like like you have been able to manage the fund in a very good way. So the combination of all these things have made the fund much bigger and therefore also the fiscal rule more important.

如果您在制定财政规则时,也制定了一个关于基金总共可以贡献预算百分比的规则,您认为这个百分比会是多少?我认为它会低于目前的百分比,目前我认为是25%,或者说挪威国家支出或国家预算的近四分之一是由石油基金的回报资助的。那么,如果当时制定了规则,您认为会是多少,而不是25%?我无法给出确切的数字,但我认为重要的是要明白存在担忧。我谨慎地不深入讨论这个问题,因为那是一个非常挪威式的辩论,我谨慎地不就我近年来没有密切关注的问题发表过于具体的看法。

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If you had at the time when the fiscal rule was made had also made a rule for how much in total could the fund contribute to in percent of the budget, what do you think that percentage would have been? I think it would have been lower than the current percent, which I think is now 25%, or roughly almost one quarter of the Norwegian state expenditure or state budget is financed by the return from the oil fund or from. So instead of 25, what do you think he would have been if you I am not able, I know I but but but but but then I think it's important in a way as I'm not able to give you an exact number, but I think it's also important to understand that there are concerns and I'm careful being going too much into that debate because that's a very Norwegian debate and I and I'm careful being too specific on issues I not worked so close with over the last years.

但我认为,早在2000年我们制定财政规则时的想法是,这可以永远持续下去,因为从某种意义上说,挪威没有花费一分钱的石油收入。我们唯一花费的是石油收入的财政回报。当然,只要我们有投资,这就可以永远持续下去。挑战在于,您比任何人都清楚,我们现在有如此多的财富在股市中,当然可能会有大的波动,这可能会对挪威经济产生影响,这是一个我们以前从未面临过的新风险,至少不是以同样的方式。

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But but I think the the idea back in 2000 when we made the fiscal rule was in a way that this was going to it could last forever because in one way NATO has sorry Norway has spent zero of the oil revenues. The only thing we have spent is the fiscal return on the oil revenues, and and and of course that can last forever as long as we have the installment the the challenge and you know that better than anyone one else is that of course we now have some much our wealth in the stock market then of course there can be big fluctuations that can have a impact on the Norwegian economy, and that's a new risk which we didn't face at least not in the same way before.

我总是有点谨慎,不经常改变这类财政规则,因为那会损害其可信度。也许有一个不完美的但可信的规则,比总是试图追求一个更完美的但不断被改变的规则要好。因为这是一种自我施加的限制,而最大的成功在于,像挪威这样的民主社会能够处理如此巨额的现金而没有将其挥霍掉。

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And and I'm always a bit careful changing these kind of fiscal rules too often because that will undermine the credibility. Perhaps it's better to have an imperfect rule which is credible than to always try to run for a more perfect rule, but which is constantly changed. That will because this is this is a self-imposed restriction and the biggest success in a way is that a Democratic Society as Norway has been able to handle this enormous amount of cash without spending it.

我记得早在1990年代,当我们讨论并开始投资股票,并首次向养老基金拨款时,许多专家,包括我的经济学家同事,都说这不可能发生。民主机构和政治家们,如果他们得到钱,他们就会花掉。所以他们实际上主张减少石油和天然气产量,将财富留在大陆架上。实际上,挪威中央银行前行长班克·哈姆·斯坎(Bank Harm Scan: 挪威中央银行前行长)领导的一个专家组表示,这行不通,政治家们如果得到钱就会花掉。我们证明他们错了,这是最大的成功。但再次强调,如果你过于频繁地改变这些规则,你可能会在某种程度上损害“沙线”(Line in the Sand: 指不可逾越的界限)的魔力,而这正是财政规则的精髓。

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I remember back in the 1990s when we had this discussion and started to invest in in equities and and had the first allocations to the pension fund, many experts, also economists, colleagues of mine, said this cannot happen. The the the Democratic institutions, politicians, they will spend if they get the money, they will spend. So they were actually in favor of reducing the oil and gas production to keep the wealth in the continental shelf. And the actually former Governor Norwegian Central Bank Bank Harm Scan, he led an expert group and they said it cannot work, politician will spend if they get the money. We have proven them wrong, and that's the biggest success. And but but again, if you start to change these rules too often, you may undermine in a way the the magic of the Line in the Sand, which is which is the the fiscal rule.

我想我们可以说挪威的政治家们做得很好,财政部长和管理层以及挪威银行投资管理公司(Norges Bank Investment Management: 挪威主权财富基金的管理机构)以及所有负责任的人都做得很好。

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I think we can say Well done Norwegian politicians and well done the Minister of Finance and the management and the the the NB and all those who have been irresponsible.

危机领导力与个人成长

我们谈论了自您写这本书以来世界发生了怎样的变化,您自己又发生了怎样的变化?我变得,可以说,对危险更加现实了。我一直是一个极其乐观的人,拥抱世界、自由贸易和开放。现在我不再是那样的人了,因为我看到了那枚奖章或硬币的另一面。我一直支持跨大西洋联盟,即北美和欧洲的团结,但当然,在北约工作了十年,我更加意识到其重要性,所以我对这个理念更加投入,甚至更加坚定。

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We talked about how the world has changed since since you wrote this book, how have you changed? I've been I've become I to say more realistic about the the dangers. I I I I have always been extremely optimistic and and embrace the world and free trade and openness. I'm less that guy now, because I've seen the backside of that medal or that coin. And I've been as I've always been in favor of the transatlantic Bond North America and Europe together, but of course, being in NATO for 10 years, I I'm more aware of the importance, so I'm more I'm more I say even more committed to that idea.

我老了十岁,而且最重要的是,这并非最重要,但除此之外,我生平第一次在某种程度上获得了自由。这不仅仅是一件好事。我一直在公共部门工作,作为经济学家、政治家,以及在北约工作,那也是公共部门。现在我回到了挪威,开始了新的生活,这与我迄今为止的生活非常不同,这既危险又令人恐惧,但也是一件好事。

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I'm 10 years older, and and first and foremost, not first and foremost, but but in on top of that, for the first time in my life, I'm I'm in one way free, meaning that and that's not only a good thing. I always worked in public sector, as an economist, as a politician, and in NATO, which is also public sector. And now I'm I'm back in Norway and start a new life, which is very different from the life I lived up to now, and that's a danger, it's it's scary, but also a good thing.

您提到您和吕特都在多党制体系中工作过,与许多政党合作,您必须与工会等打交道。这种经历如何让您成为一个更好的外交官和谈判者?我认为这是我带到北约最重要的东西,也是马克带到北约最重要的东西,即领导一个必须寻求妥协的组织。我想我从未担任过首席执行官,但我认为当你是一名首席执行官时,你只是做决定,至少这是我对私营公司的印象,你有一个非常明确的授权。当你担任首相时,尤其是在多党政府中,并且在议会中没有明确多数,这在越来越多的欧洲国家都是如此,那么你每天都需要寻求妥协,这只是游戏规则。当你担任北约的领导时,情况也是如此,你没有很多政党,但你有32个不同的国家,它们都必须达成一致。

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You mentioned that um both you and Rutte had worked in a multi-multi-party system, you know, with lots of parties, uh you have to work with the union and so on. Now how that experience, how has that made you a better Diplomat and negotiator, you think? Well, I think I think that's the most important thing I I brought with me to to NATO and the most important thing that Mark brings with him to NATO is this of leading something where you have to find compromises. I think I've never been a CEO, but I think when when you are a CEO, just make decisions, that's at least my my my my impression in a private company, and you have a very clear mandate. When you're a prime minister, especially in a multiparty governments, and with not clear majority in the in the parliament, which is the case in more and more at least European countries, then you need to find compromises every day, that's just the the the the rule of of of the game. And and and that's also when you are the boss in NATO, that's the same. You have not many parties, but you have 32 different countries, and they all have to agree.

您谈到了美丽的妥协,大多数人并不认为妥协是美丽的,但您真的很喜欢它们。是的,我喜欢它们,部分原因是我认为通常情况下,当你做出妥协时,解决方案实际上会更好。然后你找到了平衡不同利益的东西,这通常是最好的解决方案,因为它考虑了不同的利益和观点。但其次,这是做出决定并向前推进的唯一途径。我们的民主社会是资本与劳工、左翼与右翼、不同政治观点之间的妥协。总的来说,我相信这些拥有不同利益的开放社会比那些只信奉一种宗教或一种政治意识形态的极端社会更好。

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Because you talk about beautiful compromises, most people don't think compromises are so beautiful, but you you really like them. Yeah, I like them, partly because I think that very often actually the solution is better when you make a compromise, then you then you find something which balance different interests, and and and and and that's very often the best solution to take into account different interest, different views. But second, that's the only way to make decisions and to and to move forward. And and our Democratic societies are compromises between capital and labor, between right and left, between different political views. And overall, I believe that these open societies with different interest are better than extreme societies that just adapt to one religion or one political ideology.

北欧的领导风格也更扁平化,更注重共识等等,您是否也将这种风格带入了北约?是的,我将其带入了北约,但这比我意识到的要不那么自觉,因为我只是将我领导挪威政府十年的方式带到了北约。后来,或者说几年后,一段时间后,我意识到这在某种程度上是一种新的风格。但我相信与人交谈,开放地接触他人,并且坦诚。所以我认为,当你共事的人有勇气告诉你你错了,或者我们必须做些不同的事情,或者这行不通时,更容易做出好的决定,而不是人们害怕批评或对你坦诚开放。

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Now now Nordic leadership style is also more it's a it's a flatter style, it's more about consensus and so on. Was that also something you brought into NATO? Yeah, yes, I brought it into NATO, but it was less conscious than I than I was aware of because I just brought the way I have led Norwegian governments for 10 years. I brought that same culture to to NATO. Um, I afterwards or after some years, after some some time, I realized that that was the some extent a new style. But I believe in talking to people, having open access to people and to also be frank. So I think it's much easier to have good decisions when the people you work with actually have the courage of telling you that you are wrong or we have to do something different or this doesn't work instead of people are afraid of criticizing or or or being frank and open with you.

您在2011年7月恐怖袭击期间领导了这个国家,并在北约期间经历了乌克兰局势。在这些创伤性情况下,如何领导?关键是什么?关键是保持冷静,并确保您有足够的睡眠,因为能够正常运作很重要。我看到有些人在危机中过早地耗尽了自己,所以您需要保护自己。这听起来可能有点自私,但我认为如果一个领导者要长期运作,您需要确保获得支持和帮助,这样您才能做您作为领导者必须做的事情:在场,明确传达信息,尤其是在公共领域对政治领导者而言,因此也需要不羞于寻求帮助和支持。

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You ran this country during the July attack, the terror attacks that had, and you know, through the Ukraine situation in NATO. What are the how does one lead during these traumatic situations? What's the key to sto it's to remain calm in a way, and to and to make sure that you sleep, because it is important to be able to function. So I've seen some people in crisis exhausting thems too early, so so you need to protect yourself self. Um, that may sound a bit egoistic, but but I think if a leader shall function over time, you need to ensure that you get the support, the help, so you can do what you have to do as a leader to be there, to formulate a message to to to be present, especially in the public domain for a political leader, and therefore also need not to be shy to ask for help and support.

您如何处理情绪?我在这方面有点奇怪,因为当危机急性发作时,我会压抑它们,我只是把它们推开。在某种程度上,我认为这有助于我处理情绪。我记得特别是在2022年,不,抱歉,是在2011年7月22日的恐怖袭击中,我的朋友被杀害了,我认识的、一起工作的人被杀害了。但我直到几天后才完全消化这些。因为我实际上认为,我需要扮演的角色,我必须领导,我必须发表演讲,必须在场,安慰那些失去亲人的人,这帮助我处理了自己的情绪。当然,这不是一种可持续的方式,你不能永远这样做,但至少在最初的几天里,有任务在身帮助我处理了自己的情绪。

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How do you work with feelings? I'm a bit strange there, because because when the crisis are acute, I I I suppress them. I just keep them away, and and in one way, I think that helps me dealing with feelings. So I remember especially in 2022, no, sorry, in in in in 2011, the terrorist attacks on the 22nd of of July, friends of mine were killed, people I knew very well, worked with were killed. But I didn't fully take that into as I say myself, until days after, because I think actually the fact that I had the role to play, that I had to lead, that I had to give speeches, to be present, to give comfort to those who have lost their loved ones, that helped me to deal with my feelings. Of course, it's not a sustainable way, you cannot do that forever, but for at least the first days to have a task help me to deal with my own feelings.

孤独吗?孤独,但也许没有人们想象的那么孤独。这部分取决于你自己。我想如果说有什么的话,我非常擅长寻求帮助和建议,打电话给别人,请他们过来,和他们谈论大事小事,以及感受。我认为作为领导者,能否开放自己并接受他人进入你的生活,这在某种程度上取决于你自己。如果说我有什么擅长的话,那就是允许别人帮助我。您允许谁帮助您?几乎所有人。当然,那些与我最亲近的人,与我一起工作的人,家人,我的妻子。但他们也可以是,你知道,或多或少是随机的人,如果我在电视节目之前化妆,我可以问所有这些人,你觉得这个怎么样,你觉得那个怎么样。所以,我认为这关乎对建议的开放性,不害怕获得建议。

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Is it lonely? It is lonely, but but perhaps less lonely that's that people believe. I and that's a party up to yourself. I I think if anything, I'm quite good at at asking for help, asking for advice, calling people, asking them to come to talk to them, and about the big things, the small things, the feelings, and I think it's a bit up to yourself as a leader to be able to open up and accept people into your life. And I if there's anything I'm quite good at is to allow people to help me. Who do you who do you allow to help you? Almost everyone, as meaning of course, those who are closest to me, working with me, um family members, my wife, um but but they can also be, you know, more or less random person who are there. If I have a if I have some makeup before a TV show or something, I can ask all those what do you think about this, what do you think about that? So so I think it's about the openness to advice, not be afraid of of of getting advice.

您可能不特别想谈论它,但您拥有这种令人难以置信的存在感。我曾非常幸运地去布鲁塞尔与您共进晚餐,您住在那个门禁社区里。我晚上7点与您共进晚餐,穿过大门,走了50米,然后就有一个人站在街上迎接我,那就是您。您是北约秘书长,一个非常非常重要的人物,我当时感到有点不知所措。但我喜欢人,我喜欢您,对我来说,出去打招呼是很自然的事情。

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Now, you may not particularly want to talk about it, but you have this incredible presence, right? One of the most incredible presences I've seen, and you know, I was so lucky. I came down to Brussels to have dinner with you, and you you live you lived in this gated community, and I you know, I had dinner with you at 7:00, came me through the gate, walked for 50 m, and then there is one person standing on the street welcoming me, yeah, and that's you, yeah, and you are the Secretary General of NATO and a very, very important man, and I just felt, you know, a bit overwhelmed by that experience. But I like I like people, I like you, and and that's natural thing for me to go out and say Hello.

是谁教您的?您是如何学会的?不,我从未学过。它是自然而然的。也许我从父亲那里学到的比我意识到的要多,因为他也非常开放,喜欢与人相处。我认为,不喜欢与人相处就不可能成为政治家。我从与人相处中获得能量,这不是一种消耗,而是真正给予我一些东西。当然,有时我也需要休息,那时我就会离开,也许突然早早睡觉,或者不参加招待会或晚餐。或者在周末,我可以去挪威的森林里,独自一人,或者只和我的妻子或亲密朋友在一起。但总的来说,与人相处实际上会给我带来能量。

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But who taught you that? How did you pick it up? No, I never that who who how did you pick it up? It just falls natural for me. It may be that I learned it more from my father than I'm aware of, because he was also very open for know to like people, and I and I think it's impossible to be a politician without liking to be together with people to app I get energy from being together with with people. It's not a cost, it's something actually gives me something that that when I'm together with with with people. Um, then of course, sometimes I also need to rest and then I just I leave as I go, maybe a sudden I go early to bed or I I I I don't attend reception or or or dinner, but but or I go in the weekends, I can go out in Norwegian forest or and I to be alone or only together with my wife or close friend. But but in general, it's it's something that actually gives me energy to be together with people.

谈到人,您在北约是如何与那些被认为拥有强大自我的人打交道的?达成共识和协议的关键是什么?我认为关键在于认真对待他们的担忧。即使我们在许多问题上存在分歧,他们也可能拥有相关的观点和担忧。当然,不具体说明,人们一直非常关注我们是如何在唐纳德·特朗普总统(Donald Trump: 美国前总统)执政白宫四年期间应对的。

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Talking about um people, just how you at NATO, you've been dealing with um, you know, people who are perceived to have you know, large egos. I guess what's the key to reaching consensus with them and getting to agreement? No, I think it's about taking their concerns seriously and to even if we disagree on many issues, we may they may actually also have relevant points and concerns. And without being too specific, of course, there have been a lot of attention of how did we manage four years of President Trump in the white house.

我与他在贸易、堕胎或气候变化问题上存在分歧,这也不是秘密,但这些都不是北约的核心问题。所以我关注的是对北约重要的问题,实际上在这些问题上,我们有很大程度的共识。他的主要信息是欧洲盟友必须增加国防投资。他以一种与许多其他政治领导人不同,可以说不那么传统的方式传达了这一信息,但其核心信息与奥巴马总统(Barack Obama: 美国前总统)在他之前所做,或拜登总统(Joe Biden: 美国现任总统)现在所做的是完全相同的。我认真对待了这一担忧,我认为这有所帮助。

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And and and it's no no secret that I disagree with him on trade and or abortion or or climate change, but that is that was not core issues for NATO. So what I focused on was what matters for NATO, and actually on those issues, we were had yeah, a large degree of agreement. His main message was that European all had to invest more in events. He conveyed that message in a way which was a bit say not as didn't use conver different than than many other political leaders, but but the core of that message was something was absolutely the same as President Obama had done before him or President Biden does now. And I took that concern seriously, and I think that helped.

埃尔多安总统(Recep Tayyip Erdoğan: 土耳其总统)也是如此。人们问我这如何运作?他表达了对土耳其遭受恐怖袭击比其他北约盟国更多的严重担忧。所以要认真对待这一点。因此,我认为关注问题是处理强大政治领导人的最佳方式。

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The same with with with with President Erdogan. People asked me how how does that work? Well, he has expressed serious concerns about the fact that no other country NATO all country have suffered more terrorist attacks than than than Turkey. So take that seriously. So I think focus on the issues, that's the best way of addressing strong political leaders.

回归奥斯陆:自然、烹饪与生活新篇章

您现在回到了奥斯陆,感觉如何?回到奥斯陆感觉很棒。今天是一个阳光明媚的秋日,挪威不总是阳光明媚,但今天确实是。我喜欢挪威,我喜欢奥斯陆。这是我出生和长大的城市,我的家人和妻子都在这里。所以这很棒。当然,有点不同,但这是一段新生活,开启我人生的新篇章令人着迷。

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You're now back in Oslo, how does it feel? It's great to be back in Oslo. It's a sunny fall day, it's not always sunny in Norway, but it is actually. I like Norway, I like Oslo. This is the time this is the town where I'm born and grew up, have my family, my wife here, so that's that's that's that's great. It's a bit different of course, but it's a new life and and it's fascinating to open a new chapter of my life.

森林对您来说为何如此重要?因为对我来说,大自然是一个可以独处的地方,或者与一两个人亲密相处的地方。这既是一种放松的方式,也是一种锻炼的方式。当然,出去吃饭也很不错,但实际上,与所有人相处的最佳方式之一,对我来说,就是散步。我们边走边聊,走半小时或三小时。但您也做饭,是吗?我做饭,因为我打猎。好的,不,我有一个非常奇怪的习惯。我的家人对打猎没有兴趣,但当我50岁时,我经历了一些我们挪威人所说的“50岁危机”,于是我开始做一些奇怪的事情,包括爬一些以前从未爬过的山,以及开始打猎,这对我来说是全新的体验。

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Why is the forest so important for you? Because for me, nature is a place to be a bit alone, or to together with one or two a persons in be close with them. It's a way to both just relax, but also to exercise. And then of course, it's nice to go out and have dinners, but actually one of the best ways to be together with all the people, it's for me just to walk and we talk and we walk for half an hour or 3 hours. Uh, and but you also cook, yeah? I cook because I hunt. Okay, no, I am I the very strange thing. I my family has has no what should I say, had no interest for hunting, but then when when I was 50, I had some 50 years crisis as we called in Norway, so then I started to do strange things, including climbing some mountains, which was something I never did before, and starting also to hunt, which was a totally new experience.

我每年打猎三四天,通常一无所获,但有时我能射到一只挪威驯鹿。然后我的一项特长就是为朋友们准备驯鹿。我曾有幸参加过一次这样的晚餐,但真正让我印象深刻的是,您端上了伯爵茶冰淇淋,是您亲手制作的。是的,但现在这是一个非常好的播客,因为我们得到了关于我的所有最佳信息。因为我住在北约时,有幸家里有一位厨师。当然,有很多晚餐和招待活动,但他们也为我准备食物。尤其是在疫情期间,我们有点被困在家里,所以我待在家里的时间比平时多。然后我开始向他学习如何烹饪。我不是厨师,我能做的菜很少,但例如,制作我自己的自制冰淇淋,我实际上买了一台机器,所以我可以制作相当不错的冰淇淋,而且并不难。但能端上自己制作的冰淇淋感觉很好。

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And then I hunt three or four days every year, and often I don't shoot anything, but sometimes I able to shoot a Norwegian reindeer, yeah, and then I uh one of the specialities is then to prepare the reindeer for friends, yeah, and I was lucky enough to be at one of those dinners, but the the thing that really impressed me was that you served Earl Gray ice tea, no Earl Gray ice cream, which you had made yourself, yeah, but that's now this is a very good podcast because now we get all the best information about me because I I when I lived in in NATO, I had the privilege of having a chef in the house. Of course, there were lot of dinners and and representation and so on, but they also prepared food for me, and especially during the corona, we were a bit stuck in that house, um so I spent more time in the house than than than normal, and then I started to actually learn from him how to cook. I'm not a chef, and there many very few dishes I'm able to to to to make, but for instance, to make my own homemade ice cream, I'm actually bought a machine, so I can make quite good ice cream, and it's not so difficult, but it's nice to serve ice cream which you have prepared yourself.

挪威人民和欧洲人民应该每天为您做饭,因为您为国家和欧洲服务,使它成为一个更安全的地方。所以,非常感谢您所做的一切,也非常感谢您今天来到这里。不,非常感谢。

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And the Norwegian population and the European population should make food for you every day because you have served the country and Europe and made it a safer place. So big thanks for doing that and big thanks for being here today. No, thanks so much.