北约的严峻考验
主持人: 在达沃斯，总理马克·卡尼重申了加拿大对格陵兰和丹麦的支持，以及对《北大西洋公约》第五条的支持。
Original English
**Host**: At Davos, Prime Minister Mark Carney reiterated Canada's support for Greenland and Denmark and for article five of the North Atlantic Treaty.主持人: “我们对北约第五条的承诺是坚定不移的。”
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**Host**: "Our commitment to NATO's article five is unwavering."主持人: 但他也承认了其他事情。
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**Host**: But he also acknowledged something else.主持人: “我认为我们很清楚，北约目前正经历一次考验。”
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**Host**: "I think we're clearly NATO is experiencing a test right now."主持人: 这是自近80年前成立以来，该联盟面临的最严峻的考验吗？特朗普的威胁如何影响北极地区的安全未来？我采访了渥太华大学公共与国际事务研究生院主任罗兰·帕里斯。
Original English
**Host**: Is this the most critical test the alliance has faced since it was established almost 80 years ago? And how have Trump's threats affected the future of security in the Arctic? I asked Roland Paris, director of the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa.主持人: 卡尔顿大学诺曼·帕特森国际事务学院国际关系副教授斯蒂芬妮·卡尔文。
Original English
**Host**: Stephanie Carvin, an associate professor of international relations at Carleton University's Norman Paterson School of International Affairs,主持人: 和《环球邮报》渥太华分社社长罗伯特·费夫。很高兴三位都能来到节目中。
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**Host**: and Robert Fife, the Globe and Mail's Ottawa bureau chief. Great to have you all three on the program.主持人: 我想先问你，罗伯特。正如我们提到的，总统特朗普上周宣布，他和北约秘书长马克·赫鲁达已经就一项未来的“交易”达成了框架。
Original English
**Host**: I want to start with you, Robert. As we mentioned, President Trump announced last week that he and NATO Secretary General Mark Hruday had reached a quote unquote, framework for a future deal.主持人: 关于这项交易具体包含哪些内容，还有很多疑问。你能帮我们稍微解释一下吗？
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**Host**: A lot of questions as to what that deal actually encompasses. Can you help us understand a little bit?主持人: 我们对此了解多少？
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**Host**: What do we know about it?格陵兰交易框架
Robert Fife: 嗯，这是我们已经和格陵兰达成的相同的交易，即丹麦和格陵兰仍然是北约的一部分。
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**Robert Fife**: Well, it's the same deal we've we've already had with with Greenland, which is that Denmark and Greenland remain part of NATO.Robert Fife: 他们保持独立。
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**Robert Fife**: They remain independent.Robert Fife: 美国人不会购买或接管格陵兰。
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**Robert Fife**: They don't. The Americans are not going to buy or take over Greenland.Robert Fife: 但你可能会看到更多美国在基地上的投资。
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**Robert Fife**: But you will probably see more US investment on base base.Robert Fife: 他们已经在那里了。
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**Robert Fife**: They already have there.Robert Fife: 更重要的是，我认为这将成为大陆防御导弹防御系统的一部分，加拿大也将参与其中。
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**Robert Fife**: And more significantly, I think it's going to be part of a continental defence missile shield, which Canada is going to participate in as well.Robert Fife: 所以这只是虚张声势，让北约联盟动荡不安。
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**Robert Fife**: So it was a lot of bluster, got it shook up the NATO alliance.Robert Fife: 它震动了欧洲。
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**Robert Fife**: It shook up Europe.Robert Fife: 它震动了加拿大，就像他一贯做的那样。
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**Robert Fife**: It shook up Canada, as he always does.Robert Fife: 他是个破坏者。
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**Robert Fife**: He's a wrecking ball.Robert Fife: 每当他把注意力转向任何问题时，最终，幸运的是，北约的欧洲成员国以及加拿大都挺身对抗了这个欺凌者，他退缩了。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: And whenever he turns his attention to any issue, at the end of the day, fortunately, the European members of NATO as well as Canada stood up to the bully and he backed down.Robert Fife: 这并不是说没有必要增加北极地区的安全，因为你知道，冰正在融化，俄罗斯在那里拥有非常先进的基地。
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**Robert Fife**: That's not to say that there isn't a necessity to increase security and in the Arctic because of the, you know, the ice is melting and Russia has got very sophisticated bases there.Robert Fife: 中国现在也开始使用西北航道了。
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**Robert Fife**: China is now beginning to use the Northwest Passage as well.Robert Fife: 所以北约确实需要能够加强其在北极地区的安全，包括在格陵兰，以及我认为所有属于北约联盟的国家都将这样做。
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**Robert Fife**: So there is a real need for NATO's to be able to beef up its security in the Arctic, including in Greenland and all countries I think are in the NATO alliance are going to do that.Robert Fife: 但不会是美国，我们是唯一要接管格陵兰的国家。
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**Robert Fife**: But it won't be an American we're the only ones that are going to take over Greenland.Robert Fife: 这种做法失败了，总统已经转向了其他目标和每天惯常的、让世界担忧的咆哮。
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**Robert Fife**: That approach has failed and the President has moved on to other targets and tantrums that he will be, as usual, doing almost every day to the consternation of the world.特朗普的策略
主持人: 好的，罗兰，我想听听你对特朗普的看法。你认为特朗普的使命在抵达欧洲后发生了变化吗？
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**Host**: Well, Roland, I want to bring you in here talking about Trump. Why do you think Trump's mission changed when he landed in Europe?主持人: 与我们最初的预期有些不同。但它为什么会改变？
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**Host**: A bit of a departure from what we thought we were going to get. But why did it change?Roland Paris: 我认为他的使命并没有改变。
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**Roland Paris**: Well, I don't think his mission has changed.Roland Paris: 我认为他调整了他的策略，我猜是因为他学习了，并且看到了对他施压格陵兰存在真正的抵抗，真正的抵抗正在形成。
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**Roland Paris**: I think that he adjusted his tactics, and my guess is because he he learned and he saw that there was actual resistance, real resistance building to his pressure on Greenland.Roland Paris: 我说他的使命没有改变，因为我认为他不会放弃他试图控制格陵兰的努力。
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**Roland Paris**: And I say his mission hasn't changed because I don't think he's going to give up his attempts to secure Greenland.Roland Paris: 你知道，这与明尼阿波利斯发生的事件有相似之处。
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**Roland Paris**: You know, there's a parallel here to what's happened with the the role of ice in Minneapolis.Roland Paris: 所以你在明尼阿波利斯街头发生了极其糟糕的杀人事件。
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**Roland Paris**: So you have a kind of horrendous killing of somebody on the street in Minneapolis.Roland Paris: 美国关于冰的讨论突然发生了转变。
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**Roland Paris**: Suddenly there is a shift in the discussion about ice in the United States.Roland Paris: 特朗普的一些最亲密的盟友开始表达他们的担忧。
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**Roland Paris**: Some of Trump's closest allies start expressing their concerns.Roland Paris: 他达到了一个点，面临真正的抵抗，然后他进行了调整。
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**Roland Paris**: He hits a point where he is facing real resistance, and he adjusts.Roland Paris: 他改变了他的说法。
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**Roland Paris**: He changes his language.Roland Paris: 他改变了将要负责的官员。
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**Roland Paris**: He changes the officials who are going to be responsible.Roland Paris: 他做出了战术上的退让。
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**Roland Paris**: He makes a tactical backstep.Roland Paris: 我认为这丝毫没有改变他的使命，他的使命仍然是——将美国转变为一个更加帝国化的强权，利用其力量获取让步，并将盟友视为非盟友，而是客户或从属国家，这些国家存在就是为了被剥削和榨取资源。
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**Roland Paris**: I don't think it changes at all what his mission is, and his mission remains the the, the transformation of the United States into much more of an imperial power, using its power to extract concessions and his treatment of allies as not allies, but as clients or as as subservient countries that are there to be exploited and for their resources to be extracted.Roland Paris: 那并没有改变。
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**Roland Paris**: That hasn't changed.丹麦的底线
主持人: 斯蒂芬妮，罗兰提到了抵抗。总统正面临许多人的抵抗，其中就包括丹麦首相，他坚持认为美国在格陵兰军事基地的主权是“红线”。
Original English
**Host**: Stephanie Roland mentioned resistance. The president is facing resistance from a number of people, Denmark's prime minister being one, insisting that American sovereignty over military bases in Greenland remains a, quote, red line.主持人: 为什么？
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**Host**: Why?Stephanie Carvin: 嗯，我认为，就像我们加拿大人不愿意放弃任何主权来满足特朗普总统的意愿一样，丹麦也有同样的感受。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: Well, I think in the same way that we Canadians would not want to give up any of our sovereignty to accommodate the wishes of President Trump, Denmark has felt the same way.Stephanie Carvin: 事实上，我看到很多评论。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: In fact, I've seen a lot of commentary.Stephanie Carvin: 格陵兰和丹麦之间已经紧张了一段时间。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: There's been a lot of tension between Greenland and Denmark for some time.Stephanie Carvin: 格陵兰。那里有一个独立运动，奇怪的是，这反而让双方走到了一起，因为他们都担心自己的主权。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: Greenland. There is an independence movement there, and strangely enough, this has actually brought the two sides together as they have been concerned about their sovereignty.Stephanie Carvin: 所以就像我们，你知道，不愿意放弃，我不知道，巴芬岛或类似的东西一样。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: So in the same way that we are, you know, would would not want to give up, I don't know, Baffin Island or anything like that there.Stephanie Carvin: 我认为这就是丹麦的立场。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: I think this is where Denmark is.Stephanie Carvin: 而且，实际上，在北约秘书长马克·鲁特和特朗普总统之间进行讨论后，丹麦方面有很多不满，他们说，听着，有这个声明，我们没有被咨询，这是我们的领土。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: And there was a lot of resentment, actually, after the discussion between Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, and President Trump by Denmark, who said, look, it's there's been this announcement, we haven't been consulted and this is our territory.Stephanie Carvin: 所以我想，是的，有这笔交易。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: So this I guess, yes, there is this deal.Stephanie Carvin: 但我想说的是，首先，很明显丹麦仍然很担心，并且他们有明显的既得利益。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: But what I would suggest is one is obviously Denmark is still concerned and they have an obvious vested interest.Stephanie Carvin: 其次，特朗普总统，你知道，对他来说，交易不是交易，对吧？
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**Stephanie Carvin**: Secondly, President Trump, you know, a deal is not a deal to him, right?Stephanie Carvin: 交易只是他情绪的波动。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: A deal is just his mood swing.Stephanie Carvin: 我认为，你知道，这一切在很大程度上取决于，你知道，他对各种事情的态度，无论是在国内还是国际上，这真的取决于谁是最后一个和他待在房间里的人。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: And I think that, you know, a lot of this depends on, you know, his attitude towards various things going on, whether domesticly or internationally, really depends on who is the last person in the room with him.Stephanie Carvin: 对。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: Right.Stephanie Carvin: 所以我认为总是有竞争。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: So I think there's this always competition to get there.Stephanie Carvin: 而且，你知道，是的，这笔交易被宣布了。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: And, you know, yes, there was this deal announced.Stephanie Carvin: 但我们这个周末看到，例如，在Truth Social上，这是特朗普的社交媒体平台，他发布了他身处北极与企鹅在一起的照片，这很有趣，因为北极没有企鹅。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: But we did see this weekend, for example, on Truth Social, which is the Trump social media platform, that he was posting pictures of him being in the Arctic with penguins, which is interesting because there are no penguins in the Arctic.Stephanie Carvin: 对吧？
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**Stephanie Carvin**: Right?Stephanie Carvin: 但就这样吧。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: But there we go.Stephanie Carvin: 所以我的意思是，我认为这还没完。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: So I mean, like, I don't think this is over yet.Stephanie Carvin: 我仍然认为会有紧张局势。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: I still think that there is going to be tension.Stephanie Carvin: 在很大程度上，我们本周确实看到了一些北约秘书长的担忧。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: And to a large extent, we did see some of the concerns by the secretary general of NATO this week.Stephanie Carvin: 你知道，当他与欧洲议会交谈时，并基本上表示，看，我们必须让美国留在北约，并且必须就格陵兰问题达成某种协议。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: You know, when he spoke to Parliament, the European Parliament, and basically expressed that, look, we have to keep the United States in NATO and that there is going to have to be some kind of deal arranged over, over Greenland.Stephanie Carvin: 所以我只是不认为这已经结束了。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: So I just don't think this is over yet.Stephanie Carvin: 我认为这将是继续主导2026年的事情。
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**Stephanie Carvin**: And I think this is going to be something that really does continue to dominate 2026.卡尼的达沃斯演讲
主持人: 好的。我想播放一段马克·卡尼在达沃斯演讲的短片。我们来听听。
Original English
**Host**: All right. I want to play a short snippet of Mark Carney's speech in Davos. Let's have a listen.Mark Carney: 我们知道，基于规则的国际秩序的故事部分是虚假的，即最强者会在方便时豁免自己，贸易规则被不对称地执行。
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**Mark Carney**: We knew the story of the international rules based order was partially false, that the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient, that trade rules were enforced asymmetrically.Mark Carney: 我们知道，国际法适用时严谨程度不一，取决于被告或受害者的身份。
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**Mark Carney**: And we knew that international law applied with varying rigor, depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.Mark Carney: 在一个大国竞争的世界里，中间国家面临选择，彼此竞争以求得青睐，或联合起来创造一个有影响力的第三条道路。
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**Mark Carney**: In a world of great power rivalry, the countries in between have a choice, compete with each other for favour or to combine to create a third path with impact.主持人: 正如我们所知，那次演讲获得了现场观众难得的掌声。
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**Host**: As we know, that speech got a rare applause from the crowd there.主持人: 罗伯特，我想知道，你认为卡尼为什么决定这是打破国际基于规则的秩序的舞台？
Original English
**Host**: Robert, I want to know why do you think Carney decided that this was the stage sort of break down the international rules based order?Robert Fife: 嗯，我的意思是，你必须看看参加达沃斯的人，不仅是世界领导人，还有欧洲、亚洲和美国的非常重要的商界人士。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: Well, I mean, you have to look at the participants who go to Davos, not only world leaders, but also very significant members of the business community in Europe and Asia and in the United States.Robert Fife: 这是一个很好的机会，因为他既对世界领导人讲话，也对全球的企业领导人讲话，这是一个真正引起共鸣的信息。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: It was a good opportunity because he was speaking to both world leaders, but also corporate leaders in the world, and it was a message that really hit home.Robert Fife: 我的意思是，他获得了起立鼓掌，这在某种程度上几乎是一次丘吉尔式的演讲，他阐述了美国，在某种程度上也包括中国，如何利用其经济实力来欺凌其他国家。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: I mean, he got a standing ovation, for which I think in some ways was almost a Churchillian speech, the way he framed what the United States and to some extent China as well, have been, have been using their economic might to be able to bully other countries.Robert Fife: 他说得没错，像欧洲、加拿大、日本和韩国这样的国家需要联合起来，才能在美国的“美国优先”政策及其使用关税和经济一体化来欺凌他人的行为面前站稳脚跟。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: And he's quite right that countries like Europe and Canada and Japan and South Korea need to band together to be able to stand up to the United States in the change in its its American first policy and its use of tariffs and economic integration to try to bully people.Robert Fife: 中国也在做同样的事情。
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**Robert Fife**: China is doing the same thing.Robert Fife: 这是一个非常重要的信息。
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**Robert Fife**: It was a very important message.Robert Fife: 它显然让特朗普总统感到不安。
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**Robert Fife**: It really obviously it upset President Trump.Robert Fife: 你知道，他被总理卡尼抢了风头。
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**Robert Fife**: You know, he was upstaged by Prime Minister Carney.Robert Fife: 而且，你知道，他威胁要征收100%的关税。
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**Robert Fife**: And you know, he's threatening 100% tariffs.Robert Fife: 然后，你知道，昨晚他让他的财政部长出来说，卡尼打电话给总统并极力收回他在达沃斯所说的话。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: And and then, you know, last night he's got his Treasury secretary out saying that Carney called the president and back pedalled aggressively back on what he said in Davos.Robert Fife: 而总理在周二早上出来说，这绝对不是真的。
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**Robert Fife**: And the Prime Minister on. Tuesday morning came out and said, absolutely not true.Robert Fife: 我告诉总统，我坚持我所说的一切。
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**Robert Fife**: I, I told the president I stand by exactly what I said.Robert Fife: 然后他们接着谈论了贸易方面的事情。
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**Robert Fife**: And then they went on to talk about the trade stuff.Robert Fife: 所以即将举行的谈判。
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**Robert Fife**: So the negotiations that are upcoming.Robert Fife: 所以，你知道，它击中了要害。
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**Robert Fife**: So, you know, it hit the mark.Robert Fife: 而总统的小脾气表明，它确实击中了要害。
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**Robert Fife**: And the little tantrum from the president showed that it did hit the mark.加拿大的回应
主持人: 罗兰。正如我们听到的，卡尼总理鼓励中等强国崛起。加拿大如何回应这一号召？
Original English
**Host**: Rowland. Prime Minister Carney, as we heard, encouraged the middle powers to rise up. How is Canada meeting that rallying call?Roland Paris: 嗯，你知道，这在某种程度上是一个重要的信息。
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**Roland Paris**: Well, you know, it was an important message in some ways.Roland Paris: 他在达沃斯演讲中的许多内容，他以前都讲过，但他把它们整合到了一起。
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**Roland Paris**: A lot of the elements of the speech that he gave in Davos, he's given before, but he brought it together.Roland Paris: 会场和时机的结合，我认为有助于解释为什么它能引起如此大的共鸣。
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**Roland Paris**: And the combination of the venue and the timing were were, I think, helped to explain why it resonated so much.Roland Paris: 它之所以产生共鸣，部分原因在于，这种反击的信息是在欧洲人和其他人对特朗普关于格陵兰的威胁感到震惊的时刻发出的，并且反思了在过去一年里，他们的策略一直是尽可能地安抚特朗普，接受，你知道，非常重大的让步，以期，你知道，满足特朗普的要求，希望这样做能稳定关系。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And it resonated in part because this push back message came at a moment when the Europeans and others were really shocked by Trump's threats about Greenland, and reflecting on a year in which their strategy really had been to placate Trump as much as possible, to accept, you know, very significant concessions in order to, you know, meet Trump's demands in the hopes that doing so would stabilize the relationship.Roland Paris: 然后一年后，你又面临对一个北约国家的威胁。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And then a year in, you have a threat against a NATO country.Roland Paris: 所以卡尼关于这种绥靖策略从长远来看是失败的信息，我认为在当时引起了听众的强烈共鸣。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And so Carney's message about the this kind of appeasement being failed strategy in the long run, I think was really resonated for its audience at the time.Roland Paris: 联合中等强国面临的挑战是，你知道，每个国家也有必要努力管理与美国的关系，并且单独这样做的动机将非常强烈，特别是如果特朗普继续他的分而治之策略，并试图提供，你知道，特别的交易，而这正是英国所采取的道路。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: The challenge with really rallying together middle power is, is that, you know, each country also has the imperative to try and manage its relations with the United States and the incentives to do so separately will be very strong, especially if Trump continues his divide and conquer strategies and starts and tries to offer, you know, special deals, which is precisely the path that Britain took.Roland Paris: 例如，最终获得了10%的关税，而不是美国的15%关税，但他们都比以前落后了。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: For example, it ended up with a 10% tariff instead of the US 15% tariff, but they're all further behind than before.特朗普的博弈
主持人: 那么，我也想听听你对此的看法。你知道，罗伯特提到了加拿大100%的关税。这个问题有点难问，但特朗普在这里玩的是什么游戏？
Original English
**Host**: So I'll get your take on this as well. You know, Robert had mentioned the 100% tariff in Canada. The question is a bit of a hard one to to ask, but what game is Trump playing here?Roland Paris: 我再说一遍，我不知道这是否是一个游戏。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: Again, I don't know if it's a game.Roland Paris: 我的意思是，我们一直在听到关于门罗主义的说法。
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**Roland Paris**: I mean, we keep hearing this talk of the Monroe Doctrine.Roland Paris: 我一直称之为“达斯·维达主义”，因为，你知道，他一直在说，“我改变了交易。祈祷我不要再改变它。”
Original English
**Roland Paris**: I keep calling it the Darth Vader Doctrine because, you know, he keeps saying, you know, I've changed the deal. Pray I don't change it further.Roland Paris: 所以即使国家达成了交易，特朗普也愿意立即撕毁，证明这些交易甚至不值得写在上面的蜡笔和餐巾纸。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: So even when countries make deals, Trump is willing to tear, tear it up right away, proving that, you know, these are not even worth the crayons and napkins that they're written with and on.Roland Paris: 你知道，当然，回到格陵兰。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: You know, just getting back to Greenland, of course.Roland Paris: 是的，英国立即达成了一项10%关税的交易。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: Yes, the UK immediately kind of arranged this deal for 10% tariff deal.Roland Paris: 但特朗普又威胁要对英国征收巨额关税，因为你知道，英国一直在支持格陵兰。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: But Trump was threatening a huge tariff on the UK again over Greenland because, you know, the UK has been supporting Greenland.Roland Paris: 所以我认为，我们必须认识到特朗普时代的一个重要方面是，即使你达成了一项交易，你也没有真正的交易。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: So even I think this is the thing we have to realise about the Trump era is that even if you have a deal, you don't have a deal.Roland Paris: 它会很快被撕毁，这取决于总统非常善变的、礼貌地说，情绪。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: It's going to be torn up very quickly, depending on a very mercurial, to put it politely, president's mood.Roland Paris: 其次，这些承诺总是会受到某种程度的修改，这些承诺，你知道，不一定会被遵守。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And then secondly, that these will always be subject to, to some kind of revision that these, you know, promises made are not necessarily going to be promises kept.Roland Paris: 所以我认为这是其中的一个重要部分，我认为这就是卡尼所说的。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: So I think this is a big part of this, and I think this is what Carney was speaking to.Roland Paris: 但，我的意思是，这很有趣，因为我认为在某些方面，卡尼的演讲在加拿大已经成为某种程度上的“罗夏测试”，一个墨迹测试，就它在这里被如何解读而言。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: But, I mean, it's interesting because I think in some ways Carney's speech has become somewhat of a Rorschach test, an inkblot test, like in terms of how it's being taken here in Canada.Roland Paris: 我看到很多人说，哦，这是对美国的巨大、你知道，猛烈抨击。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: I've seen a lot of people say, oh, this is a huge, you know, broadside against the United States.Roland Paris: 是的。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: Yes.Roland Paris: 但我认为，你知道，正如罗兰和罗伯特所指出的，这也与中国有关。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: But I think, you know, to the points made by, I think, both Roland and Robert, it's also about China.Roland Paris: 这也与其他国家有关。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: It's also about other states.Roland Paris: 而问题在于，我认为，你知道，罗兰指出的问题是，美国非常擅长，你知道，一次只对一个盟友施压，并试图迫使他们做出让步。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And the problem, I think, you know, that Roland identified is that the US is really good at, you know, kind of putting pressure on one ally at a time and trying to force those concessions.Roland Paris: 我认为，你知道，卡尼，公平地说，当他谈论美国、中国或俄罗斯等其他国家时，我们确实需要继续团结起来。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And I think, you know, Carney, to be fair, when he's talking about whether it's the United States, whether it's China, whether it's Russia, you know, other countries, we do have to continue to band together.Roland Paris: 如果说有什么的话，我并不认为这是一种针对特朗普的广泛抨击。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And if anything, I didn't see it necessarily as a broad stroke against Trump.Roland Paris: 我实际上更像是针对，你知道，英国首相斯塔默的广泛抨击。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: I actually saw it almost more as a broad stroke against, you know, the prime minister of the UK, Starmer.Roland Paris: 这是对斯塔默主义的广泛抨击，这是一种持续的美国绥靖政策，试图在当下获得最好的交易，即使这笔交易在未来几天、几周或几个月内可能会被撕毁。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: It's a broad stroke against Starmer ism, which is kind of consistent US appeasement to try and get the best deal you can in the moment, even if that deal may be torn up in the coming days or weeks or months.加拿大国防
主持人: 罗伯特，我想稍微谈谈加拿大的国防。加拿大目前是否准备好捍卫其在北方的主权？
Original English
**Host**: Robert, I want to talk a little bit about Canada's defence. Is Canada prepared to defend its sovereignty in the North as it is right now?Robert Fife: 嗯，它说它准备好了，但我们在国防开支方面落后了很多。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: Well, it says it is, but we're a way, way behind in terms of our defence spending.Robert Fife: 我们正在显著增加。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: We're boosting it significantly.Robert Fife: 但这需要时间，购买设备也需要时间。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: But this takes time and it takes time to be able to buy the equipment.Robert Fife: 包括破冰船、飞机、导弹以及所有其他雷达系统以及所有将需要用于加强我们在北极地区存在的东西，但也只是总体上提高武装部队的能力，使其比过去40年左右更加有韧性。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: Both icebreakers and and aircraft and missiles and all that other radar systems and all the things that are going to be needed to boost our presence in the, in the Arctic, but also just overall to increase the ability of the armed forces to be able to be much more resilient than it has been over the last 40 years or so.Robert Fife: 因此，总理非常致力于尝试显著增加国防开支，并以一种也能增加国内就业和高科技就业的方式进行，包括蓝领和高科技就业。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: So the Prime Minister is pretty dedicated to trying to significantly increase defence spending, that in a way that will also increase jobs and high tech jobs in this country, both blue collar and high tech jobs in this country.Robert Fife: 但这一切都需要时间。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: But all of this is going to take time.Robert Fife: 你根本无法在国防工业中轻易地买到现成的产品。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: You simply can't just buy something off the shelf very, very easily in the defence industry.Robert Fife: 但它一直存在，我认为有一件事我们可能不得不归功于特朗普，那就是他推动了欧洲、加拿大、日本、韩国以及世界各地曾是美国盟友的国家增加国防开支，因为美国不再像以前那样是一个可靠的伙伴了。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: But it's been and I think one thing we do probably have to credit Trump for is that he's pushed Europe and Canada and Japan and South Korea and and countries around the world who have been part of the US alliance to increase their defence spending because the United States is not as reliable a partner as it was.北约的未来
主持人: 斯蒂芬妮，我想很快让你加入进来，因为上次我们谈话时，我们还在谈论加拿大武装部队的弹药不足以进行军事演习。
Original English
**Host**: Stephanie, I do want to get you in very quickly, because last time we spoke, we were talking about the Canadian Armed Forces not having enough ammunition to do military drills.主持人: 所以显然，你知道，正如罗伯特提到的，这是长期的。这需要一些时间。但我们现在应该看谁？
Original English
**Host**: So clearly, you know, as Robert had mentioned, we this is long term. This will take some time. But who do we look to now.主持人: 在...
Original English
**Host**: In terms of.主持人: 在北极主权和防御方面？
Original English
**Host**: In terms of, in terms of sovereignty in the Arctic and defending us?Stephanie Carvin: 嗯，我认为公平地说，北约及其成员国在第二届特朗普政府之前就一直关注北极问题，对吧？
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: Well, I think to to be fair to NATO and NATO countries, they have been concerned about the Arctic prior to the second Trump administration, right?Stephanie Carvin: 当我有机会前往欧洲和欧洲国家旅行时，人们对北极的兴趣大大增加。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: When I've had the opportunity to travel to Europe and European countries, we there's a lot more interest in the Arctic.Stephanie Carvin: 所以北约一直在关注这个问题一段时间了，我认为有很多现有的关系可以让我们在此基础上发展。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: And so NATO has been looking at this issue for some time, and I think that there are a lot of pre-existing relations that that we can build on.Stephanie Carvin: 特别是，加拿大与北欧国家，如丹麦、挪威、瑞典，特别是现在瑞典加入北约后，进行了大量合作。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: In particular, Canada has been doing a lot of work with the Nordic countries, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, especially now that Sweden is in NATO.Stephanie Carvin: 所以有很多关系可以让我们在此基础上发展。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: And so there's a lot of relationships we can build there on.Stephanie Carvin: 令人不安的现实是，美国也在那里，对吧？
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: The uncomfortable reality is the US is also there, right?Stephanie Carvin: 我们将不得不找到一种与他们合作的方式。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: We are going to have to find a way to work with them.Stephanie Carvin: 我们不能忽视他们。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: We can not ignore them.Stephanie Carvin: 我也不认为我们应该这样做。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: And I also don't necessarily think that we should.Stephanie Carvin: 所以我们必须以某种方式适应这种情况。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: So we are going to have to accommodate this in some way.Stephanie Carvin: 如果，你知道，在北极有兴趣与特朗普政府合作，可能会有一些基础。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: There may be some grounds to do this if, you know, there is this interest in the Arctic to to to work with the Trump administration.Stephanie Carvin: 我只是认为挑战在于，你知道，正如我一直在说的，特朗普是不可预测的。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: I just think the challenge is, you know, as I've been saying, Trump's unpredictable.Stephanie Carvin: 他让这种合作变得困难。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: He makes that kind of cooperation hard.Stephanie Carvin: 所以我们确实需要，你知道，也许是这种整体的北约对北极的方针。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: So it's we really do need to have, you know, perhaps this overall NATO approach to the Arctic.Stephanie Carvin: 但同时，我真诚地希望我们都在制定一个B计划。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: But at the same time, I hope, sincerely, that we're all coming up with a plan B.联盟的挑战
主持人: 罗兰，我们知道这里有框架，但格陵兰的争夺战接下来会走向何方仍不清楚。除非你知道。但请帮助我们稍微理解一下，你知道，北约能挺过这次危机吗？
Original English
**Host**: Roland, as we know we have the framework here, but it's still unclear where the fight over Greenland is going to be heading next. Unless you do know. But help us understand a little bit, you know, will NATO survive this?主持人: 是否有一些关于这个联盟在这一切之后将走向何方的严肃问题？但你的想法是什么？
Original English
**Host**: Are there some serious questions about sort of where this alliance moves after all of this? But what are your thoughts?Roland Paris: 你知道，现在很难说。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: You know, it is hard to know at this point.Roland Paris: 我不认为会有“北约结束”的声明。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: I don't think there's going to be a moment when, you know, there's a declaration NATO is over.Roland Paris: 北约可以存在于纸面上，但它实际依赖的信任可能会消失。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: NATO can exist on paper, and the trust that it actually relies upon can be gone.Roland Paris: 这就是军事联盟的意义所在。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And that's the thing about military alliances.Roland Paris: 使它们有效的，是理念，一套理念，一种信念，即如果其中任何一个成员受到攻击，所有成员都会来保卫彼此。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: What what makes them effective is, is an idea, a set of ideas, a belief that all of the members will come to each other's defence if any of them is attacked.Roland Paris: 而且，你知道，特朗普对特朗普是否会支持北约国家免受攻击提出质疑是一回事。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And, you know, it was one thing for Trump to raise doubts about whether he would come to the support of NATO countries if they were attacked.Roland Paris: 我认为他被具体问到波兰时，他说这取决于具体情况，而威胁要对另一个北约成员国动用军事力量，这是非常不同的。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: I think he was asked specifically about Poland, and he said it would depend on the circumstances, a very different thing for him to threaten military force against another NATO member.Roland Paris: 这显然削弱了信任，但也削弱了北约作为一个组织的威慑作用，因为如果对手对北约是否会回应其成员国的袭击产生怀疑，那么，你知道，这可能会诱使他们去测试这种决心是否仍然存在。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And that obviously weakens the trust, but it also weakens the deterrent effect of NATO as an organization, because if there are doubts by an adversary about whether NATO would respond to an attack on any one of its members, then it, you know, it potentially invites them to test whether that resolve still exists.Roland Paris: 而且，你知道，展望未来几年，如果乌克兰战争至少暂时结束，俄罗斯就有机会重建其军队并考虑其他方向。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And and so looking a few years down the line, if the war in Ukraine comes to a at least temporary conclusion, Russia has an opportunity to rebuild its forces and think, look elsewhere.Roland Paris: 我会非常担心波罗的海国家的未来，我认为北约能够传达它仍然是一个基于成员国决心和信任的联盟将非常重要。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: I would be very concerned about the Baltic countries going forward, and I think it would be very important for NATO to be able to communicate that it continues to be an alliance based on resolve and trust among its members.Roland Paris: 我们将看看特朗普之后是否还能实现这一点。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: And we'll see whether that's possible beyond Trump.美国与联盟
主持人: 罗伯特，这说明了联盟的未来，并希望能接续罗兰刚才所说的。
Original English
**Host**: Robert, what does this say about the future of the Alliance and hopefully pick up upon what Roland said there?Robert Fife: 好了，你看，我的意思是，美国国会普遍支持北约。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: Well, look, I mean, there is a pretty widespread support in US Congress for NATO.Robert Fife: 他们理解这个联盟对美国的重要性。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: They understand the importance of this alliance to the United States.Robert Fife: 美国不能单打独斗。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: The United States can't go it alone.Robert Fife: 我的意思是，他们显然是世界主要的世界最大军事强国，但在全球范围内，联盟和盟友绝对重要。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: I mean, they obviously the world's major world's biggest military power, but alliances and allies are absolutely important in in the global sphere.Robert Fife: 我认为国会已经认识到这一点，美国军方也肯定认识到这一点。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: And I think there is a realization in Congress that certainly there's a realization of that in the US military.Robert Fife: 我认为美国社会的大部分地区也是如此。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: And I think broad sections of American society.Robert Fife: 但共和党内有一个由特朗普和MAGA群体领导的反对派。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: But there is an element in the Republican Party led by Trump and the MAGA crowd that are opposed to that.Robert Fife: 即使特朗普在下次选举中被赶下台，民主党获胜，这仍然是一个问题，你知道，美国将不得不与之斗争，北约也将不得不与之斗争一段时间，因为特朗普总统给北约联盟造成了巨大的损害，并削弱了对机构的信心。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: And this is something that even in Trump, if we manage to get rid of him in the next election campaign and say the Democrats win, this is still going to be a problem that the, you know, the US is going to be grappling with, NATO is going to be grappling with for some time because President Trump has left an enormous amount of damage to the NATO alliance and undermine confidence in the institutions.Robert Fife: 即使他明天消失或去世，美国社会中仍有一部分人不想单打独斗。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: And it's even if he goes away or drops dead tomorrow that there is a segment of American society that do not want to go it alone.Robert Fife: 这将在可预见的未来对北约构成挑战。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: And that is going to be a challenge for NATO in the foreseeable future.斯蒂芬妮的最后30秒
主持人: 斯蒂芬妮，你来做最后的30秒发言。
Original English
**Host**: Stephanie, you get the last 30s.Stephanie Carvin: 是的，与其他发言者达成根本性一致总是有点无聊，但这是真的。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: Yeah, it's always boring to have the radical agreement with the other speakers, but it is true.Stephanie Carvin: 我的意思是，存在对“僵尸北约”的担忧，对吧？
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: I mean, there is the concern about a zombie NATO, right?Stephanie Carvin: 但同时，我认为，你知道，就像，我会试着从中找到积极的一面，那就是美国目前在欧洲有大约8万名士兵驻扎在几个军事基地。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: But at the same time, I think, you know, like, I'll try to put the silver lining on this, which is that the United States has something like 80,000 troops in Europe right now in several military bases.Stephanie Carvin: 这些基地用于美国的全球行动。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: Those bases are used for American operations worldwide.Stephanie Carvin: 对。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: Right.Stephanie Carvin: 在特朗普政府的领导下，美国显然非常随意地卷入了世界各地的许多冲突。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: And the US clearly is very randomly under the Trump administration, getting itself involved in a lot of conflicts worldwide.Stephanie Carvin: 而且它将需要继续拥有这些军事基地。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: And it will need to continue to have those military bases.Stephanie Carvin: 所以我不一定认为撤军是必要的。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: So I don't necessarily think that a withdrawal is necessary.Stephanie Carvin: 但正如罗伯特所指出的。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: But to Robert's good point.Stephanie Carvin: 你知道，JD·万斯去年在慕尼黑安全会议上发表了非常严肃的演讲，他基本上说，欧洲，你们完了。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: You know, JD Vance last year gave a very serious speech at the Munich Security conference where he's basically like Europe, you're dead.Stephanie Carvin: 你们对我们来说，你们基本上完了。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: You're you're you're kind of dead to us.Stephanie Carvin: 我们要继续前进。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: And we're moving on.Stephanie Carvin: 而在这一点和美国的国家安全战略之间，即使美国继续在欧洲和北约保持存在，我们至少在未来三年内仍将经历一段艰难时期。
Original English
**Stephanie Carvin**: And between that and the US national security strategy, even if the US continues to have a presence in Europe and NATO, we are still going to be in a rough ride for the next three years at least.主持人: 好的。我们就到这里。罗兰。罗伯特，斯蒂芬妮，非常感谢你们来到节目。非常感谢。
Original English
**Host**: All right. We are going to leave it there. Roland. Robert, Stephanie, thank you so much for joining us on the program. Really appreciate it.Roland Paris: 谢谢，谢谢。
Original English
**Roland Paris**: Thank you, thank you.Robert Fife: 谢谢。
Original English
**Robert Fife**: Thank you.📌 文中提及的人物和组织
公司/组织: NATO