量子计算:下一场革命
我们都知道,数字计算机已经改变了整个格局。能够使用数字计算机的国家变得富有、强大,能够进行通信,能够重塑经济。然而,我们现在正处于下一场革命的初期阶段。
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We all know that digital computers have changed the entire landscape. Nations which can use digital computers are rich, they're powerful, they can communicate, they can revamp the economy. However, we're now in the initial stages of the next revolution.
量子计算机将如何改变一切。
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- [Interviewer] How quantum computers will change everything.
下一场革命将是量子计算机(Quantum Computers: 一种利用叠加态和纠缠等量子力学原理进行计算的新一代计算机,在某些任务上远超经典计算机),它将使数字计算机看起来像算盘一样落后。换句话说,数字计算机的未来将是进入垃圾堆。我们谈论的是新一代的计算机,终极计算机,一种能够对构成物质本身最终要素的原子进行计算的计算机。量子计算机有能力改变我们生活的方方面面。经济、健康、交通,一切都可能被量子计算机改变。
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- The next revolution will be quantum computers that will make the digital computer look like an abacus. In other words, the future of digital computers is to wind up in the garbage can. We're talking about a new generation of computers, the ultimate computer, a computer that computes on atoms, the ultimate constituents of matter itself. Quantum computers have the capability of changing every aspect of our life. The economy, health, transportation, everything could be changed by quantum computers.
量子计算的应用前景:从食物到能源
例如,看看粮食供应。我们依赖化肥。曾经发生过一场绿色革命,使我们能够养活世界人口。但那场绿色革命正在慢慢走向终结。我们需要一场第二次绿色革命,能够从空气中提取氮气并将其结合,制造氨和化肥。我们已经在尝试利用量子计算机来揭示如何从氮气中制造化肥的秘密。
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Take a look, for example, of food supply. We rely upon fertilizers. There was a green revolution that took place that allows us to feed the population of the world. But that green revolution is slowly coming to an end. We need a second green revolution, being able to take nitrogen from the air and combine it to make ammonia and fertilizer. And already we're trying to use quantum computers to unlock the secret of how to make fertilizer from nitrogen.
再来看看能源。聚变能源(Fusion Power: 一种理论上的能源,通过融合原子核产生电力,类似于恒星的运作方式,有望提供海量的清洁能源)有一天可能为我们提供几乎免费的无限能源。我们谈论的是一种以海水为基本燃料的能源,聚变反应堆燃烧海水,即海水中的氢,来产生巨量的能量,而且没有核废料,没有核泄漏的威胁。量子计算机可能对于稳定真空和氢气至关重要,以防止它们引发事故或崩解。
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Also, take a look at energy. Fusion power could one day give us unlimited energy almost for free. We're talking about an energy source where the basic fuel is sea water, fusion plants burn sea water, the hydrogen of sea water, to create fabulous amounts of energy without nuclear waste, without the threat of a meltdown. And quantum computers may be essential to stabilize the vacuum and hydrogen so that they don't cause an accident or they don't fall apart.
量子计算的应用前景:重塑医疗健康
换句话说,量子计算机可以在基本层面上影响经济。更不用说医学了。我们通过试错法来研发药物。我们制造数百种化学物质,并在培养皿中逐一测试。这是老套且缓慢的方法,但目前我们只能这样做。未来,我们将能够在分子层面(molecular level)模拟疾病。我们将在计算机内存中进行分子实验,而不是在培养皿中,尝试筛选数百种化学物质以找出哪一种具有医学相关性。换句话说,我们正在谈论让医学发生翻天覆地的变化。
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So in other words, quantum computers can affect the economy in basic ways. Not to mention medicine. We create medicines by trial and error. We create hundreds of chemicals and test them one by one in a Petri dish. This is old fashioned slow, but that's all there is. That's all we can do. In the future, we'll be able to model diseases at the molecular level. We'll be able to do molecular experiments in the memory of a computer rather than in a Petri dish, trying to look at hundreds of chemicals to find out which one is medically relevant. In other words, we're talking about turning medicine upside down.
全球竞赛:量子计算的商业与战略意义
问题是,谁在参与这场完善量子计算机的竞赛?答案是所有人。如果你不参与这场竞赛,未来你可能会变得无关紧要。计算机行业的所有大公司,如谷歌(Google)、IBM、霍尼韦尔(Honeywell),都在参与其中,因为他们意识到自己可能变得无关紧要。华尔街总是在寻找下一个大投资,而这可能就是。突然之间,我们看到一些几年前才成立的公司,随着他们试图在量子计算机的“高山”上插上旗帜,它们变成了数十亿美元的公司。这现在是大生意。这是目前股票市场上最热门的股票之一。换句话说,这是一场竞赛。硅谷的所有大公司都参与其中,因为如果他们不参与,硅谷可能会变成下一个“铁锈地带”。
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The question is, who's involved in this race to perfect quantum computers? And the answer is everyone. If you're not part of the race, you could be irrelevant in the future. All the big names of the computer industry, Google, IBM, Honeywell, they're all in the game because they realize that you could become irrelevant. Wall Street is always looking for the next big investment, and this could be it. All of a sudden, we have companies that just started a few years ago becoming multi-billion dollar companies as they try to put their flag on the mountain of quantum computers. This is now big business. This is one of the hottest stocks that are available on the stock market now. In other words, it's a race. All the big players in Silicon Valley are part of this race because if they're not Silicon Valley could become the next rust belt.
摩尔定律的终结与量子计算的必然性
我们有一个叫做摩尔定律(Moore's Law: 一项观察,即微芯片上的晶体管数量大约每两年翻一番,从而导致计算能力呈指数级增长)的法则,它说计算机能力每18个月翻一番。我们对此习以为常。每年圣诞节,你的电脑都比前一年圣诞节的电脑强大一倍。经济就是建立在这一点上的。但摩尔定律正在瓦解。摩尔定律的速度越来越慢。最终,它会趋于平缓。让我问你一个问题:如果你知道一台新电脑的性能与过去几代电脑一样强大,你还会升级吗?不会,这可能会导致计算机行业出现萧条。我们物理学家几十年前就指出了这一点,但当时我们说,嗯,我们还有几十年的时间,但它终将到来。它正在到来,因为晶体管越来越小。今天的晶体管可能只有大约20个原子宽。当你开始触及5个原子宽时,电子就可以跳跃过去并造成短路。摩尔定律就此终结。我们现在正逐渐接近那个极限。当你看到计算机能力指数增长的曲线时,你会发现它非常 remarkable。这就是现代技术实现飞跃的地方,但现在我们开始趋于平缓,正如我们所预测的那样,这是因为量子理论。电子不是点。电子是波(Waves: 量子力学中的一个概念,描述了电子等粒子具有波动性,其行为可以用波函数来描述)。波是概率(Probability: 描述事件发生可能性的数学度量),当电子开始在原子层面被分析时,它们是不稳定的。所以,换句话说,硅谷必须面对摩尔定律终将崩溃的事实。因此,出于所有这些原因,我们必须超越数字计算机,转向原子计算机(Atomic Computers: 指基于原子或亚原子粒子进行计算的计算机,与基于晶体管的数字计算机不同)。计算对象是原子,而不是晶体管。
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We have something called Moore's Law, which says that computer power doubles every 18 months. We take it for granted. Every Christmas, your computers are twice as powerful as the previous Christmas. The economy is based on that. But Moore's law is falling apart. Moore's law is getting slower and slower. Finally, it'll flatten out. And let me ask you a question. Would you upgrade your computer knowing that it's just as powerful as the last few generations of computers? No, this could cause a depression in the computer industry. We physicists called attention to this decades ago, but we said that, well, we still have a few more decades left, but it's coming. It's coming because transistors are getting smaller and smaller. A transistor today could be, let's say 20 atoms across. When you start to hit five atoms across, then electrons can then hop across and create short circuits. And Moore's law comes to an end. We're now gradually approaching that limit. When you look at the curve of the exponential growth of computer power, it's quite remarkable. This is where modern technology has taken a leap, but now we're beginning to level off just like we predicted, because of the quantum theory. Electrons are not dots. Electrons are waves. Waves are probability, and they're unstable if you start to get electrons and they analyze them at the level of an atom. So in other words, Silicon Valley has to confront the fact that Moore's law will eventually collapse. So for all these reasons, we have to go beyond digital computers to atomic computers. Computers that compute on atoms rather than on transistors.
量子计算对网络安全的颠覆性影响
目前,任何关心安全的人都对量子计算机感兴趣,因为量子计算机原则上拥有破解任何数字代码的能力。请仔细想想。所有在互联网上传输的数据都是经过编码的。国家机密被编码在这些代码中,而这些代码通常需要你进行因式分解(Factorized: 在数学中,将一个合数分解为其素数因子的过程。对于大数而言,这是一个计算密集型任务,构成了许多现代加密方法的基础)。而这正是量子计算机可以做到的。它们可以对非常大的数字进行因式分解,从而破解几乎所有基于数字技术的代码。这就是为什么联邦调查局(FBI)、中央情报局(CIA)以及所有对计算机安全感兴趣的国家政府都在密切关注这一点。例如,假设你想对一个秘密进行编码。你给它加一个代码,代码要求你对一个长度为50位的数字进行因式分解。一台数字计算机可能需要几百年才能分解一个50位的数字。而一台量子计算机可能几乎瞬间就能完成。因此,你可以看到这给计算机安全领域的人们带来了焦虑。你不是在谈论能够闯入地球上任何基于数字技术的其他计算机。现在,我们还没有达到那个阶段。所以你不用担心明天有人会窃取你所有的秘密,但这一天终将到来。当它到来时,我们将不得不对如何编码我们最珍贵的国家机密进行重大修改。
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Right now, anyone who's interested in security is interested in the quantum computers is quantum computers in principle, have the power to crack any digital code. Think about that for a moment. All the data that is sent on the internet is coded. National Secrets of Nations are encoded in these codes, which often require you to factorized very large numbers, but that's what quantum computers can do. They can factorized very large numbers and thereby crack almost any code that is based on digital technology. That's why the FBI, the CIA, and all national governments interested in computer security are following this very closely. So for example, let's say you want to have a secret that's encoded. You put a code on it, and the code says, you have to factorized a digit that is, let's say 50 digits long. It would take perhaps a few hundred years for a digital computer to factorized a number that is 50 digits long. A quantum computer may be able to do that almost instantly. And so you see the anxiety that this is being created for people involved with computer security. You're not talking about being able to break into any other computer on the earth that is based on digital technology. Now, we're not there yet. So you don't have to worry that someone's gonna steal all your secrets tomorrow, but it will come. And when it comes, we're gonna have to have a major revision of how we code our most treasured national secrets.
量子计算的原理:超越零与一的并行宇宙
普通的数字计算机计算的是零和一。但如果你看看医学、能源、分子,它们不是基于零和一的。它们是基于电子的。电子可以是平滑的,而不是零和一。这些电子为什么拥有如此强大的计算能力?因为它们可以同时出现在两个地方。现在,你可能会对自己说,这太荒谬了,太愚蠢了。怎么可能同时出现在两个地方?但这正是电子的行为。电子可以同时出现在多个地方。这就是赋予量子计算机力量的原因。它们在平行宇宙(Parallel Universes: 物理学中的一个假说概念,认为存在多个独立于我们宇宙的宇宙,它们可能与我们共存,常用于解释量子力学)上进行计算,不仅仅是我们熟悉的那个宇宙,而是无数个平行宇宙。这听起来像是漫威漫画(Marvel Comics)里的情节,但问题是,漫威漫画是从哪里得到这个想法的?漫威漫画是从量子物理学中获得这个想法的,因为量子物理学的基本原理依赖于电子可以同时出现在多个地方这一事实。
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Ordinary digital computers compute on zeros and ones, zeros and one. But if you take a look at medicine, you take a look at energy, you take a look at molecules, they're not based on zeros and ones, zeros and ones. They're based on electrons. And electrons can be smooth, not zeros and ones, zeros and ones. And these electrons, how come they have so much computational power? Because they could be in two places at the same time. Now, at this point, you may say to yourself, that's ridiculous, that's stupid. How can you be two places at the same time? But that's exactly what electrons do. Electrons can be multiple places simultaneously at the same time. That's what gives quantum computers their power. They compute on parallel universes, not just one universe, the universe that we're accustomed to, but an infinite number of parallel universes. Now this sounds like something from Marvel Comics, but then the question is, where did Marvel comics get this idea? Marvel comics got this idea from quantum physics because the fundamental basis of quantum physics relies upon the fact that the electron can be in multiple places simultaneously at the same time.
量子计算的未来:治愈疾病与重塑职业
量子计算机的一个宏大目标,不仅仅是创造新能源、新产品、新交通方式,而是可能解锁生命本身的秘密。你意识到生命是基于分子的,而不是零和一。分子进而可能导致阿尔茨海默病(Alzheimer's disease)、帕金森病(Parkinson's disease)、癌症等疾病。这些疾病是数字计算机难以企及的。但量子计算机可以做到这一点。它们处理分子,处理原子,处理电子。这就是为什么我们希望有一天能够利用量子计算机治愈那些不治之症。现在,有些人会说,这会不会让医生、化学家和生物学家失业?他们会不会因为我们不再需要他们而失业?不,未来失业的将是那些不使用量子计算机的化学家和生物学家。这场游戏的赢家将是那些使用量子计算机的生物学家、化学家、数学家,就像木匠(carpenter)使用锤子(hammer)一样。锤子不会取代木匠,它只是增加了木匠的力量。而这正是量子计算机将为医学、交通、能源等领域带来的。无论你想到什么,量子计算机都将在其中发挥作用。
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One of the big goals of quantum computers, not just creating new forms of energy, new products, new forms of transportation, but perhaps unlocking the secret of life itself. You realize that life is based on molecules, not zeros and ones, zeros and ones. Molecules that in turn can create Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, cancer. These diseases are beyond the reach of digital computers. But hey, this is what quantum computers do. They work with molecules, they work with atoms, they work with electrons. And that's why we hope that one day we'll be able to cure the incurable using quantum computers. Now, some people say, won't that put doctors, chemists and biologists out of a job? Won't they be on the unemployment line 'cause we don't need them anymore? No, in the future, the people on the unemployment line will be chemists and biologists who do not use quantum computers. The winners of this game will be biologists, chemists, mathematicians who use quantum computers in the same way that a carpenter uses a hammer. A hammer does not replace the carpenter. The hammer simply increases the power of the carpenter. And that's what quantum computers will do for medicine, transportation, energy, you name it, quantum computers will be there.
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