人类物种为何仅剩一种存活?——大卫·赖希的探讨 Dwarkesh Patel 2024-08-30

人类物种的扩张与消失

David Reich: 7万年前,世界上存在半打左右不同的人类物种,它们彼此差异很大。然后,一支源自撒哈拉以南非洲的族群开始爆炸式地遍布全球。那么,究竟是什么发生了改变?你认为是什么原因?我个人倾向于认为这并非基因层面的原因。

Original English

David Reich: 70,000 years ago, there are half a dozen different human species all around the world that are pretty different. And then this group that's descended from the people in subsaharan Africa just explodes all across the world. So, something seems like it changed. What do you reckon it was? I'm very sympathetic to the idea that it's hardly genetic.

David Reich: 我认为这更像是文化创新。很自然地可以想到,当时整个撒哈拉以南非洲大陆,以及可能还有欧亚大陆,遍布着成千上万个小群体,他们之间几乎没有交流。在每个由几百人甚至上千人组成的群体中,人类会积累共享的文化知识,关于工具的知识,关于生活策略的知识,并且他们会不断构建和积累共享的知识。但是,如果一个群体规模有限,且与其他大型群体没有足够的互动,那么这个群体就可能面临信息丢失的风险。比如,发生自然灾害,群体中的关键长者去世,知识就可能失传,群体可能无法达到临界质量的共享知识。但一旦知识量超过了某个临界点,群体就能变得更大,共享的知识量也会随之增长,从而引发一个“失控”的过程。这使得关于如何制造特定工具,如何创新等模式的知识,以及语言和概念上的想法,都能获得发展。所以,5万年前的世界,实际上是成千上万个不同的人类群体,每个群体拥有本地知识,彼此之间很少交换。

Original English

David Reich: So I think that this is cultural Innovation. It's very natural to think that this is cultural Innovation. The whole continent of subsaharan Africa and probably Eurasia at this time is full of hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of little groups that are communicating hardly at all with each other. In every group of human beings of hundreds of people, which is the size of a band or sometimes a thousand of people, they accumulate shared cultural knowledge, shared knowledge to knowledge about tools, knowledge about Life Strategies. And they build up a shared knowledge more and more and more and more. But if you have a limited size group of people that's not interacting with other sufficiently other large group of people, either occasionally this group has an information loss, you know, there's a natural disaster, key elders in the group die and knowledge gets lost and there's not a critical mass of shared knowledge. But once it goes above some kind of critical mass, the group can get larger. The the the amount of shared knowledge becomes greater and then you have a runaway process where uh where where an increasing body of shared knowledge of how to make particular tools, how to innovate, uh patterns of innovation, and so on, language, conceptual ideas, uh run a mock.

David Reich: 因此,我们今天看到的世界是,5万年前存在成千上万个不同的人类群体,每个群体都拥有本地化的知识,并且彼此间极少交流。当我们幸运地在古代 DNA 中找到样本时,会发现它们彼此相当孤立,遗传多样性也较低。在过去的几万年里,它们中的绝大多数都灭绝了,被自然灾害、其他人类群体或其他动物所消灭。因此,我们看到的是一个由这些群体组成的群岛所进行的大型实验。可能发生的是,文化知识在不断积累和丢失,但由于有如此多的实验在进行,或许某个地方的某个东西会取得成功,也许这就是5万到10万年前发生的事情,而所有这些人都拥有做这些事情的能力。

Original English

David Reich: So what you actually have in the world is 50,000 years ago is tens or hundreds or thousands or tens of thousands of different human groups, each of them possessing local knowledge, rarely exchanging with each other. When we get lucky in ancient DNA and sample them, they're quite isolated from each other and they have reduced diversity. In the last tens of generations, the great majority of them go extinct. The great majority of them are wiped out by encounters with natural disasters, or other groups of humans, or other animals. And so what you have is a vast experiment with an archipelago of these groups. And what might be happening is that you just have an a process of accumulation of cultural knowledge and loss of cultural knowledge. But since there's many of these experiments going on, maybe something takes off somewhere. And maybe that's what happened 50 to 100 thousand years ago. And people who all have the capacity to do these things. So I'm attracted to that idea.

David Reich: 尽管我不是这方面的专家,但我理解,如果像这个早期近东部落那样,发展出了新的文化技术,然后它们扩张到整个欧亚大陆,这或许能解释它们的优势地位。我不太理解的是,为什么其他物种一个都没有存活下来?比如,一个丹尼索瓦人的部落,或者一个尼安德特人的群体,或者一个霍比特人的群体?它们在哪里都找不到一个可以独立于这个(来自非洲的)人类部落的生存空间?为什么一支非洲人类的部落就能主宰一切?我不知道我是否问清楚了——为什么没有一个物种存活下来?

Original English

David Reich: Without being an expert on this topic, I I understand if like there new cultural Technologies developed by this near East early group tribe that like then they expand out through Eurasia and I get like that might enable them to be so um dominant. What I don't understand is how is it that none of the other ones survived? Like not even one Tribe of denisovans, uh or like one group of Neanderthals, one group of Hobbits like there's no, there was no niche in which they could just like fend off everywhere. Uh This One Tribe of humans, um, One Tribe of African humans just dominated.

David Reich: 我不知道。我认为这可能是一个数量上的问题。如果你看我们拥有最佳数据的那部分世界,即过去1万年,有一些地方的狩猎采集者比其他地方多存活了数千年。例如在荷兰,狩猎采集者比周边地区多存活了几千年,可能因为他们利用了湿地。但最终他们也消失了。一旦与现代人类的扩散相遇,高密度的人群出现。

Original English

David Reich: I don't know. I mean, I think it may be a numerical issue. I mean, if you look at the part of the world where we have the best data in the holis, the last 10,000 years, there are places of long-term survival of hunter gatherers for a few thousand more years than elsewhere. In the Netherlands, for example, Hunter gathers survive for several thousand more years than in the surrounding areas, probably because they're exploiting the wetlands. But they're gone soon enough. Once happ, at some point, each of these places is encountered by the spread of modern humans, high densities.

David Reich: 另外,对我来说,"扩张"究竟意味着什么都还不清楚。所以,如果你想做一个有力的论证,你可能会说,今天的非非洲人其实是尼安德特人,只是他们与来自非洲的现代人类经历了反复的基因混合,而谁是我们的祖先?这听起来可能有点哲学化,但从谱系学的角度来看,我不知道这是否发生在我写书之前(你可能不知道)。

Original English

David Reich: The other thing is, it's not even clear to me what expansion means. So, you know, if you want to make a strong arguments, you might argue that non-Africans today are Neanderthals who just have waves and waves of modern humans from Africa mixing with them. Like who's who are the ancestors? So that might sound like a silly kind of philosophical statement.

David Reich: 但之前出现了一系列非常有趣的研究论文,它们使许多事情变得清晰。其中一个观点是,实际上,非非洲人祖先中尼安德特人的比例并非2%,这是我们今天基因组中他们的 DNA 比例。如果你是非洲人,你的祖先中有10%或20%是尼安德特人。

Original English

David Reich: But like genealogically, I don't know if this happened before, after my books, you you probably don't know about this, but there was a super interesting series of papers that came out which made it clear. Many things became clear, but one of them was that actually the proportion of non-Africans ancestors who are Neanderthals is not 2%, which is the proportion of their DNA in our um in our in our genomes today. If you're a non-African person, it's more like 10 or 20% of your ancestors were Neanderthals.

David Reich: 实际上发生的是,当尼安德特人与现代人类相遇并混合时,尼安德特人的基因并不那么具有生物学适应性。原因是尼安德特人自与现代人类分离后,大约生活在小群体中长达一百万年。而现代人类生活在更大的群体中,积累了大量(成千上万个)轻微的有害突变。因此,在混合群体中,存在一种选择机制来清除尼安德特人的祖源,并且这种清除过程发生在混合之后非常非常迅速。现在有压倒性的证据表明,这种情况必然发生过。所以,如果你真的去计算你祖先中尼安德特人的数量,比如7万年前,非非洲血统的祖先中,他们不会是2%,而是10%或20%。

Original English

David Reich: And what actually happened was with when Neanderthals and modern humans met and mixed, the Neanderthal DNA be was not as biologically fit. And the reason was that Neanderthals had lived in small populations for about half a million years since separating from modern humans, which had lived in larger populations and had accumulated a large number, thousands of slightly bad mutations. Such that in the mixed populations, there was selection to remove the Neanderthal ancestry. And that would have happened very, very rapidly after the mixture process. And there's now overwhelming evidence that that must have happened.

David Reich: 所以,如果你看看你的祖先,如果你是非非洲血统,7万年前有多少是尼安德特人?不会是2%,而是10%到20%。这相当多了。也许正确的思考方式是,在近东地区,你有一个群体,他们不断遭遇一波又一波的现代人类的混合。他们数量如此之多,以至于随着时间的推移,尼安德特人血统虽然依然存在,但它仅仅是逐渐地、越来越多地变成现代人类的血统,最终从内部被现代人类祖先所取代。

Original English

David Reich: And so if you actually look at the ancestors, if you count of your ancestors, if you're of non-african descent, how many of them were Neanderthals, say 70,000 years ago? It's not going to be 2%. It's going to be 10 or 20%. Um, which is a lot. And maybe the right way to think about this is that you have a population in the near East, for example, that is just encountering waves and waves of modern humans mixing. There's so many of them that over time, it stays Neanderthal, stays local, but it just becomes over time more and more modern human and eventually gets taken over from the inside by modern human ancestry.

David Reich: 甚至不确定今天的非非洲人是否算是现代人类。他们可能只是被一波又一波的基因混合“现代化”了的尼安德特人。

Original English

David Reich: It's not even obvious that non-Africans today are modern are are modern are modern humans. They're just maybe they're Neanderthals who became modernized by waves and waves of admixture.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

关键字: human-evolution cultural-innovation species-survival genetic-admixture social-organization