主持人: Hi everyone. Welcome to today's special podcast. I'm super honored to have Professor Everan Abamean joining my podcast. Professor, thank you for doing this with me.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Thank you very much, Fig.

主持人: Yeah. So, last time we had a podcast kind of discussing the influence of the 1953 coup on the current Iran Iranian political system. Actually, as you know, it probably follows the news, the current situation is pretty bleak. Like you have all the protests on the street. I heard some protester got killed by the current regime and there's definitely a huge crackdown on that. Can you just briefly tell us like what's your perspective on the current situation going on in Iran?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, underlying problem for this regime is that it was it came to power in 79 a great deal of popularity. So it had a lot of legitimacy. It was probably the most popular revolution that's occurred in world history.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米ان教授: Since then, the regime has narrowed its base by being more and more sectarian. So, it's cut away, you know, Islamic reformists, radicals, even people from within the regime if they didn't quite follow the supreme leaders line, they were marginalized. So it has lost its you could say its legitimacy not totally but it's from I would say from 80% support which it originally had it's probably narrowed down to 15%. So the the underlying is the problem of legitimacy but of course on top of that what is the sparked off the present problem is the sanctions.

主持人: Mhm. the incredible sanctions that have been on for a long time and basically they ruined the economy.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. So often it's seen the question often is you know if Iran moderated its policy or it beh somehow the sanctions would be lifted and things would be improved. So it's often the question the onus is put on the Iranian government. I mean it's a despicable government. There's no question that but whether the real driver of the car or the policy is really Iran or outside powers issue.

主持人: Yeah. So I think the real problems are really in Washington and Tel Aviv where they are the ones who've imposed these economic incredible sanctions. I don't think any other country suffered the similar sanctions. But then the question arises what is their motivation? What they want?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. And there you know that's fuzzy. I you know a lot of liberals in America think well it's pressure so that Iran will behave better on the nuclear issue.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: But but Iran did actually sign a very good agreement with Obama

主持人: JCPOA. Yeah. Exactly.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So I'm not that's not I don't think the issue. Then the question becomes the vowed reason the Americans give is they want regime change. But what does that mean?

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Usually when you talk about the term regime change is a euphemism for what used to be used as coup d'etat a military coup that's fallen out of fashion. It's considered sort of too imperialistic. So that was coined regime change. But to have a regime change, you need to have an alternative to the regime to be able to take over.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And I I don't see that there. Basically you have mass demonstrations, a lot of people there protesting, but there is no organization, no even informal system that you can claim is going to be an alternative government.

主持人: Yeah,

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: I think people not necessarily in Washington but in Tel Aviv were quite aware of that. So I don't think they're deluding themselves into thinking that there's going to be a regime change. So the question then becomes what is their agenda? And I fear their agenda is basically dismantling of the regime breakdown of the whole state as they did with other countries.

主持人: Yeah. Like Libya, right? Or like Iraq.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Iraq. Libya basically Syria too, Yugoslavia. That's been very much a policy of of of foreign sort of I would say still imperial powers is if you can't control a state but way ways to deal with it is to dismantle it.

主持人: Yeah. I think many of my listeners are familiar with the 1953 coup against the Mosaddegh. I think you write a very famous book. I'm going to put the link in the description of this podcast as well. So looking back was that 1979 Islamic revolution essentially a reaction to that event? I think your answer is pretty definitively yes, right?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah, it's not a direct, you know, 53 to 79. It's not that simple, but I would say the origins of the 79 revolution go back to 53. Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Because what happened was here you had a national hero basically hero Mosaddegh who was not only seen as a national figure head epitomizing Iranian nationalism in oil nationalization but he was also actually a child of the constitutional revolution earlier in the century.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So in many ways he had a sort of charismatic power and his overthrow by the CIA MI6 really not only destroyed Mosaddegh but it brought to power the Shah who from the beginning lacked legitimacy.

主持人: Exactly. And the Shah actually is often portrayed as sort of a hamletike figure who didn't know what he was doing. But in fact, if you go back to the documents before the 53 coup, he's quite perceptive. He keeps on telling the British and the Americans that if I go against Mosaddegh, an oil nationalization, I will lose legitimacy. Not just self the whole monarchy will lose legitimacy. So he knew that if he basically participated in the coup he would be undermining his own authority.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So he knew that from 53 on from the beginning.

主持人: Yeah. So what he often did after 53 and there's a long gap of obviously 537 he was always trying to gain legitimacy support right

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And one way I mean continually the first 10 years was to have at those days was called modernization socioeconomic re reform and here it was Actually Walt Rostow you know the the theorist of modernization argued that the way to prevent revolutions is to have socioeconomic modernization.

主持人: Exactly.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And he did that. But what that did was actually it expanded the two major classes that had always opposed the monarchy. That was the intelligencia, the modern middle class and the industrial working class. So that he was in a way socially undermining the monarchy by modernization.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Another thing he did was part of that was then have the so-called white revolution.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Where he could argue that you know Mosaddegh didn't carry out land reform. I'm carrying out major land reform. I'm a revolutionary. And if ever took the language of dialectics that he was a dialectical relationship with his people, he transformed the white revolution and the Shah's people's revolution. This was a way of actually further getting some sort of legitimacy.

主持人: Yeah. What it did was actually again undermined him because in the old regime the old feudal class the landlords the tribal chiefs had been the backbone of the monarchy.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. And land reform in fact destroyed that class. And it was supposed to create a small landed farming class that would support the regime.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: But that there it failed initially that was the idea of it of the white revolution.

主持人: I'm just curious why I mean if you look at the communist movement like in Soviet Union or China or other like similar communist country like I think the policy he adopt is very similar to those like they they take down all the far like landlords and those people who have the land and then distribute those land to the farmer who hasn't and that should be a popular policy towards those lower income class right

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: If it's done properly It's would succeed I mean it succeeded in Japan back then a number of other countries but in Iran it didn't succeed because they never followed it up because it's not enough just giving a farmer's land you need support system you need basically help for agriculture and they after a while in fact the Shah felt so confident that they transferred from farm families to encouraging agro businesses, plantations. So they started actually dispossessing a lot of far small farmers in favor of agro businesses.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So they failed to create a social base in the countryside. Another way the Shah tried to get legitimacy was this idea of imperial monarchy that he was a grand emperor in the line of 2500 years of history.

主持人: Yeah. going to pre-Islamic Iran the procep celebrations of 2500 years and that further undermined the system because one thing it did is it it's it seemed for the clergy like an attack on religion

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Because going back to pre-Islamic Iran as core of Iran and that was seen as a way of trying to undermine people's faith. But also I mean part of the imperial ambitions was spending a lot of money on on arms. The Shah was the biggest buyer of American arms.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: For many people this was waste of money but it was also proof to people that the Shah was actually put in power to serve American interests.

主持人: I see. to you remember there's a time after Vietnam Nixon created what was known as the Nixon Doctrine.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And Nixon basically was saying we can't we don't have the money to police the world. We need local policemen, local Jean Darmms.

主持人: Yeah. Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And the Shah quickly appointed himself as a local John Darm for America in the Gulf region.

主持人: Yeah. So for many people in Iran, this was direct proof that yes, he is a stoogge of the United States. Otherwise why is he wasting all this money we need for social programs on on ultra ultraodern weaponry from United States.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So all these things further undermined his legitimacy. So when you came to actually set the crisis in 7879 he had no social support.

主持人: Yeah. And often actually with the reports CIA reports state department they say well you know he has a has done so many things to actually make himself unpopular inflation let's say torture those all things that were true but the real reason was that it had lacked legitimacy. Yeah, obviously the Americans couldn't admit to themselves that in fact the wrote root cause of the problem was at 53.

主持人: Yeah. Someone compared the Islamic Republic to a betrayed revolution that happened in 1979, right? Like similar to like historical analogies when a monarchy is overthrown only to be replaced by a different form of a authoritarian regime. Is this current crashes a direct consequence of the removal of the secular democratic options like Mosaddegh in decades ago because basically they destroyed that benign democratic option even that class completely during that crackdown era.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. Also I mean there's a feeling that people were take taken for a ride.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Because if you read many press conferences, he gave a lot in France before the in the eve of the revolution. It was always basically that, you know, we're offering freedom everyone. The Shah is a dictator. We'll be exactly opposite. He even said, you know, I'm an old man. I'm just hope to after the revolution go back to my studies at seminary. the image given to the public was that it was going to be the monarchy will be replaced by a democratic republic.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Now the thinking the real thinking of Khomeini was in fact a clerical state and he he had written a given a series of lectures on what was called Velayat-e Faqih which means literally the authority of the clergy.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Never mentioned that in during the revolution.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: It was under this book was published under a pseudo name.

主持人: Uhhuh. There was a quite actually sort of Mcavelian strategy to saying well no no this wasn't really his work this was someone else had written it or that you know these are student notes of lectures he gave in Iraq and you know everyone knows that student lecture notes are not reliable.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. Exactly. So but there was no actually open admittance that this was his thinking.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: After the revolution once the Shah was gone completely was in power then they revealed the notion of clerical power. So they transformed the idea of a democratic republic to a clerical republic and the constitution was it's a very complex document some 160 clauses but what it does is it's institutionalize the power of the clergy.

主持人: Yeah. So you I think that what therefore people felt was they were hoodwigged into something that they were not actually demonstrating for and they got and ended up with something that was unpalatable. So that that that as a another cause of the the regime. Now, if the regime had been willing to open up and have a more liberal interpretation of their own constitution, it would have been more actually viable, but it's over the years it's got narrower and narrower.

主持人: Yeah. I I read your book describing that part of the history and my impression is Khomeini is very good at propaganda. So, he say one thing and a lot of people support him. even the the democratic ones, the liberal ones, they they form a huge alliance kind of supporting him to pass that constitution and after that he started all kinds of activity cracking down each part and eventually step by step all the other democratic options has been destroyed. So right now in Iran like there's no such thing as alliance like Mosaddegh was having during the 50s right. So right now you don't see any kind of liberal organizations existing in Iran.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: No, I mean it's the even civil organizations are very basic.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: The only thing people who could organize is the government work within government organizations and that's why the protests basically are in the street.

主持人: Yeah. Exactly.

主持人: So in your view as a historian like what do you think is a primary factor that determine the destiny of a nation like Iran? Is it like deeply rooted history, culture, ideology, the political system or the personality of the supreme leader and a lot of like accidental factors that kind of cause into the current state?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, I I mean all of them all basically are a factor but in this case actually I mean in this case the crisis is basically externally basically introduced right yeah

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Israel and also the the basically the sanctions if there weren't sanctions I think there would be much more ability for the regime to open up And of course, one argument is often made is if there is more economic development, prosperity, the the middle class would be be better off. And the once the middle class is better off, they would have more power within the state. and you would have actually more of a of a you could say regime that even if it's clerical this is able to deal with with a United States and other countries.

主持人: So the sanctions basically make the system more intransigent than then open up.

主持人: Got it. So the Islamic Republic is actually a unique hybrid of the clerical rules and the limited democratic element. You know like Iran has elections, they have the reformist president. However, the recent protest seem to have crossed a threshold. You know like the traditional merchants which is like a key pillar of the 1979 revolution join in to protest the current existing regime. So do you think this signal a fundamental secular shift in the Iranian civil society that the current system can no longer accommodate?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Um yes I mean the the fact that the economy is so bad it is affecting even people who have political influence like the bazaar is showing that there's is a really serious serious crisis there. Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: But the question is, you know, for the regime, what to do? And that's where their alternatives are actually limited because the people basically making the crisis are not in Iran. There's not the it's not the regime. It's basically in Washington and Tel Aviv.

主持人: Yeah. Yeah. So basically it hand is actually tied. There's not much they can do like unless the sanctions somehow like got lifted.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah.

主持人: Okay. And I don't see that happening. So the the crisis is going to go on. I think if the on one hand if the regime doesn't collapse the crisis will be there. If the regime collapses there'll be even a worse crisis in that chaos in the country.

主持人: I know. So do you think like the merchants finally turn against the regime due to this hyperinflation happening in Iran? Do you think the regime currently have any sociological base left beyond the military? You know, like obviously they control the military.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, I mean there might be actually the the discontent or protests in the bazaar could be just a temporary thing because for businessmen and shopkeepers, the last thing you want is people burning your shops or your establishments. So if they see the chaos happening, they might even again go back rally around the regime.

主持人: Yeah, I see what you're saying. So I think like the current Iran president looks like trapped because he promised to listen to the people while the judiciary prepared to do mass trials for those enemies on the street. They think those guys are like foreign infiltrated spies try to overthrow the government. Historically the Islamic Republic uses a reformist president you know as a safety vow to release those social pressure. Do you think this safety vow mechanism finally broke in 2026 because apparently the president is kind of losing the grips of the current protest.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah, I mean this has happened before too. You know was reformist Rouhani in some way was even going back earlier Rafsanjani the first president after once actually died they were more I would say open-minded but it they were always stifled by the clerical hierarchy. Mhm.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So, this isn't new. I think what could happen is Pezeshkian the president is still president. but he can still in a way restrain the clergy and leave it opening so that you know people who don't want to actually chaos they don't want overthrow might still find someone like Pezeshkian as a reasonable someone from the establishment to find a way to get out of the crisis.

主持人: Yeah. So I think like the 2025 protest was triggered by the econom economic collapse, right? But the revolutionary guards like the IRGC's they actually control a massive portion of the economy. So do you think in your view like the Islamic Republic actually transformed from a theocari into a military mafia conglomerate? Basically you have the army and the revolutionary guard control all the different sectors of the of the important businesses.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: In fact, to some extent, they're actually the the past stars, the revolution guards, have less economic control right now than they did about 10 years ago.

主持人: Oh, really?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: In in some ways the governments has tried and especially I think any reformist president will will has in the past and will try to res limit the revolution guard's economic activities um I mean the the model they follow followed that was actually China after Mao

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: that you know the red army had a lot of influence in the economy.

主持人: Exactly.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: After a while they the government discouraged that and tried it to make it more pro private or stayed private. That could happen in in Iran.

主持人: So I think you have written extensively about the reality of the Pahlavi era right and also the 1953 coup. Today however we see on internet right like a generation of the young Iranians chanting the return of the monarchy and Reza Pahlavi as a historian do you view this as a genering political support for a monarchy or this is just an act of desperation because like they haven't been through that horrible horrible era in the Iranian history.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well I don't know how widespread it is. You know with internet you have one you can have one picture of a guy saying you know Pahlavi's return or something projected as if this was the the popular cry it's not like in 1978 where you had actually 3 million people in the street

主持人: exactly

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: pulling for so if that happens yes I would say that's serious but I think that an incident here or there it doesn't prove that. Um what what has happened in the last 20 years is in the diaspora. There's been a lot of funny money coming into quite actually sophisticated media especially movies very systematically creating nostalgia for the path period.

主持人: Yeah. So they're his movies, films, documentaries and even you know it's very simplist every time you have an image of the Pahlavi era you have nice soothing music.

主持人: Exactly. Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Whenever it's you have a from the Islamic Republic on pleasant. So the mood is to is to create a a mythical past as if it was everything was fine. Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And people forget that actually 7879 there were literally 3 million people in the street calling for the end of the Pahlavi. So yeah,

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: it's a systematic I artificial creation.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And funny money originally I think came from Saudi Arabia.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: But the Saudis are no longer interested in that. So I think the funny money probably comes from Israel.

主持人: Yeah. Do you think like I know Pahlavi in his regime Israel Mossad and CIA they trained the secretly secret police force in the country, right? Help him to find all the protesters and really punish those who want to overthrow the regime or protest in the street. Right. So do you think that Israel and maybe the United States they want to have that good old days coming back to Iran basically put the this kind of res back in Iran taking control become a puppet state

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: I you know they might wish that but I think there's at least that the Israeli intelligence Mossad I think is aware that that's a mirage that's not likely to happen so however much that they talk about return of the Pahlavis. They know that's not in the books.

主持人: Yeah. I I saw I saw like um Reza Pahlavi went on the show and then give a speech to Iranian people and acting like he's going to be the next in line to take control of the regime. Do you think he's out of his mind or like he seriously think that's possible? He has the support of the western countries.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, I think he it pro it he does pro think that you know the card is in America's hand and Israel has he if he basically does says what they want they will put him back into power but the question is how

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: you know there as I was saying there's no institution or structure or party in Iran that is going to invite the Shah back to become Shah so The only way he can be returned to Iran as Shah is a massive army occupying the country and putting him back in power. I mean, in the past whenever you've had a monarchy restored, it's often been through foreign occupation.

主持人: Yeah. That means like US have to put the troops on the ground like to really occupy Iran for probably decades to have a stable monarchy in place.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. And you know that didn't work actually in in in Iraq.

主持人: Iraq and end up horribly. So I don't think that there will be any Americans supporting that like right now at least from my perspective.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. I mean I I mean I can't see us having the will or even the ability to mobilize such a army. It would need to be actually a a not a unilateral army but a multinational army.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: If you go back in history after Napoleon it's true the Bourbons were returned to France. Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: But to return the Bourbons in France, you needed the Tsarist army, the British army, the Prussian army, the Austrian army. So you need a massive, you know, alliance of countries to occupy the country to bring back monarchy and that's not in the books in Iran.

主持人: Yeah. So the current regime is attributing the violence on the street to foreign agents like Mossad and like infiltrators kind of entering from the border. You have written about the paranoia style in the Iranian politics because of the 1953 coup. Does the current leader actually think that um I don't know if that's your own theories or it's their know kind of deeply rooted in their mind. They think like every protest is kind of under the foreign direction which I think it's actually part of them is true because you do see Mike Pompeo went on the um a conference and saying that uh congrat to the Iranian people and also the Mossad sitting next to them like on the street. I think that's partly true. But do you think it's uh it's also a cynical propaganda because like they try to not really face internal problems like they may have in governing the the country.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, I think both there there's clearly foreign involvement especially when guns have appeared.

主持人: Exactly. Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So there is that sus reason for suspicion but of course they're using it. I mean the Shah used it too. He constantly was telling the American ambassador and the British ambassador that all these problems are caused by the Soviets.

主持人: Yeah. Exactly.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And they would say, "No, we have no evidence." Then he turned around and said, "Oh, it must be the CIA doing this."

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Still the monarchists think that the Shah was overthrown because the Americans wanted him overthrown. So the the paranoia is mostly actually among the the royalists who have this notion that everything was fine. It was the Americans that overthrew the Shah.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And the Shah actually himself often would say the reason he was getting trouble in the west about human rights was because of the Jewish press.

主持人: Yeah. So he if you were looking for someone who's really anti-semitic in Iran in the old regime it was the Shah himself. He had this idea that somehow the the Jews controlled American press and that was

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: and he because he had said some statements about Palestinians which he never meant it because he always he never wanted a Palestinian state.

主持人: Yeah. But a few statements he'd made, he said, "Ah, that's what that's why the Jewish press is out to get me."

主持人: Yeah. So, how do you think about, you know, the current if you go on the social media YouTube people on different sides both blame the other saying like, you know, the Iranian government is saying, "Oh, all this social unrest are actually foreign actors. They're like spies and Mossad or other like conspiracy theories. They want to overthrow the regime, they basically bring the weapons into the country, which is part of them is true, right? But the government think that calling those protest the the spies gave them the right to really commit the massacre, right? Like killing a lot of people on the street. However, the US, if you see President Trump, he's saying, "Oh, we need to stop the government kind of killing its own civilians. So, we are lock and loaded. were ready to attack Iran to save those protesters and both of them try to put themselves in a high moral high ground but actually from my opinion like none of them actually have that stand you know like it's a it's a very messy situation in Iran.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well when when Trump says he's going to intervene to help the demonstrators I do not know what what the mechanism is.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: How is it that going to happen? I mean last time there was the bombing Israelis bombed. They actually bombed the main political prison.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And the people who are there are actually people who criticize the regime. So I mean the only way intervention I can see is the US and Israel intervening to decapitate the regime.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And then the decapitation of regime doesn't mean change of regime. it means then opening for complete anarchy and destruction of the state. So that's why I keep on going back to the I think the real agenda of both Israel and United States is disintegration of the state.

主持人: Yeah, I kind of see there's many other geopolitical experts believing the same argument you're making like basically the Israel government want the Iranian power to be a dysfunctional state, a rubber state. So basically you have the internal civil war unrest and never really be able to form a strong army and threaten Israel's position in the Middle East.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah, I think that's the agenda. Yeah.

主持人: Yeah. I I think I think that makes sense as well. So, do you think the current Iran regime would turn into something like a hermit kingdom, a fully closed security state similar to North Korea, you know, use a national internet to block out all the other website external to Iran and also kind of server the ties with the world and just maybe working doing business with China and Russia to to kind of maintain the stability of the regime. Do you think that's possible? Like the North Korean mode for Iran?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: I don't think by choice they want to do that, but they might end up having to do that. Yes.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: If there's no willingness on America's part to negotiate some sort of settlement, they have no choice but to do that. Uh remember the original slogan of the revolution was neither east nor west. Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Um, but they've been forced basically to rely a lot on Russia and China. Uh, but those powers are not really willing to stick out their neck for Iran. So,

主持人: exactly.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: They might have to do what North Korea did, which is basically become a hermit state.

主持人: Yeah. and of that was that's not going to solve the internal problems. The difference of course I see is the North Korea has has the bomb and that Iran doesn't have it.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah.

主持人: Yeah. And that's what some when people something think about a regime change if their regime change is the revolutionary guards taking over they might think much more in terms of North Korea and the only way they can survive as a hermit state is in fact having the bomb.

主持人: Yeah. So actually they this might accelerate the development of nuclear bomb instead of really slow it down.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. Yeah.

主持人: Yeah. Also I think the current supreme leader Khamenei is in a advancing age right like he's pretty old. Um we see the current of power you know you have the clergy and the revolution guards and also the civilian technocrats. Um in the inevitable power vacuum that follow the supreme leader left the world. Who do you predict will come out on top? Witnessing a slow transition from theocracy to a military dictatorship run by the IRGC.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Actually, the constitution was very savvy to make sure there'd be a sort of line of succession.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And you know when Khomeini died, the expectation was well he was such an informative person no one would replace him. Yeah. In fact, the constitution is structured in such a way that there will be an easy transition to next.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So there are a lot of basically clauses and how to do it and it could be either one person even someone who is not very well known could be elected as the supreme leader or you could have a council of religious figures taking over. So that's not a problem. Um, and I think the revolutionary guards need some sort of fig leaf. Mhm. Sort of basically form of legitimacy. It wouldn't be a great legitimacy, but it it is better than being purely naked force of the revolutionary guards. So it would be in their interest to have some sort of one cleric at the top or three clerics at the top who give them some sort of religious order.

主持人: Got it. Got it. So basically you could have um military dictatorship but they would not change the structure. They basically put some puppy in the top to kind of stabilize the country. Right.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah.

主持人: Yeah. That's interesting. So many Iranians want change, right? But they look the border middle east and fear the regime chain could lead to chaos and even a worsen situation which happens a lot in the past when you have a revolution you often have a more authoritarian regime come into power than the previous one. So in the current political impass is inevitable due to you know Iran's geography and ethnic composition. Do you think that's like because of Iran unique position or um if the regime fails right is there any generating risk of the state collapse like what happened in Iraq or Syria or Libya like um adjacent countries?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yes. I mean Iran has it great national identity long identity. educational system has stressed the importance of national identity too for the last 50 years.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: There is a strong sense of Iran Iraness but important but there's also exists in certain areas of Iran an ethnic identity.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So it's not only one national entity but also ethnic identity such as among the Kurds, the Baluchi, the Arabs and to some extent among Turkish speakers.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Large percentage of the population is Turkish speaking. Um so when you have a society that there looks so very unified because there's a sort of state national identity it's often forgotten that there is also simmering underneath it ethnic identities. When there's a crisis, it's easy for outside powers to actually only with a little bit of basically nudging create a much more ethnic divisions.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: I mean, look at Yugoslavia for years. It under Tito it seemed like Yugoslavia was a viable state. I traveled in Yugoslavia actually on the Tito and I was looking for this and you know everyone I talked to assured me you know sure in the past there had been ethnic differences between Serbians, Bosnians the Muslims, Croatians and so on. And it it felt like there was a real viable Yuguslav nationality. But after Tito died and things became a bit wobbly some European powers neighbors were actually very muching interested in dismantling

主持人: yeah

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: and was easily to incite you know massacres whether between Serbians or Croatians or Muslims and that that became a horror story as a result of that.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So, I I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of of ethnic divisions.

主持人: Yeah. As you know, like the current political discourse often present a binary choice. You know, it's either the current clerical regime or the return of Pahlavi monarchy. Do you think there could be a third way for Iran like there could be a modernday Mosaddegh in Iran? Do you think that's possible?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. Yes. I mean, I think the sentiment in the street especially is for actually some sort of I wouldn't say liberal but some sort of de democracy

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: and often the cries you see in the street liberty equality. the notion that people have rights and it's not the the state shouldn't tell you what to do or or not what to dress and so on. And that doesn't mean people are anti-religious but they're feeling as um that religion is a private affair and what you believe in has nothing to do with the state.

主持人: Yeah. Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So I think that the culture the popular culture is very actually ready for some sort of democracy. Uh the question is how can you transfer political authority of the state that likes to monopolize power to a much more open system.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So I it is possible I mean someone like Mosaddegh could appear even someone from the regime who is open-minded enough to do that that's I think a good hope for for for the future. Yeah.

主持人: Yeah. So do you think even like say we have a regime change the clerical class um get out of the power right they're no longer the supreme leader in Iran society but that class still remains socially and economically powerful in the Iran society do you think Iran could be doomed to a cycle of revolution and restoration like over and over again basically they put mariki back and then there will be another revolution like 1979 happen again.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: No, because I think the clergy the ones that are not actually in power, they would were quite happy to be basically distant from the state, not to have power. There they would still retain their social power, even economic power in terms of foundation, you know, endowments. um uh the church equivalent to churches here uh and many of them actually are not that happy having being associated with the state. So the clergy are not necessarily eager to have control over the state. So they're not the ones that are going to be actually counterrevolutionary if there was a democracy set up.

主持人: Yeah. So when President Trump come back to the white office for the second term, right, he's doing this maximum pressure campaign on Iran which kind of definitely lead to the current economic collapse and currency collapse in Iran society. Like how do you think the Iranian young people view America? Do you think Trump's action and current state of American politics diminish the appeal of the American model in Iranian youth?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, I don't think there they know what's happening in the United States that I mean the what some of the I guess much more you know savvy would would follow the press and know what's that democracy is being rapidly eroded in United States.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: But what they see is they hate if they if you hate the regime and someone comes along and says I'm going to help you against your detested regime. people naturally say, "Oh, good. I'll take your support."

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: But I think what's happened in the last few days is actually significant.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Because in in the in Iranian history, the oil issue was very important. Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: You know, Mosaddegh they wanted to say we we should have our oil. The the Brits at that time wanted to get our oil and The British attitude was why is our British oil under your ground? We're going to take it back. And what Trump has done with with Venezuela is revive that me memory because now people openly see that Trump is actually focused on on Venezuela because he's saying American oil is on the Venezuelan ground. I'm going to take it back.

主持人: Yeah. Exactly. So if he does that with Venezuela, why not with Iran too?

主持人: Yeah. So that you think that could change the perception like from American if American to invade Iran like the Iranian people would probably have a very complicated view on that.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yes. Yeah.

主持人: Okay. So um I think the invasion of Iran by the United States probably supported by Israel could happen, right? Like I I almost I almost thought it would happen like this weekend, but it seems like they tuned down the rhetoric nowadays. Do you think that's a realistic possibility like Trump would invade Iran and really try to occupy the country?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: No, I mean it's it's it's a big country. It I don't think that the US has that manpower or will to do it.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So their alternative and I think they're aware of that. So what is their strategy? If they know they can't invade and just the pressure isn't going to bring about regime change the strategy then off is obviously destruction of the state.

主持人: Mhm. So they basically set up some kind of puppy proxy war, right? Like in inside Iran, like support certain um protest groups, like militarize certain areas and then try to have them fight against each other, right? Basically start a civil war in Iran.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. We people forget you know when there were demonstrations started against um in Syria against the government there was a massive import of American arms.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Some of it actually went to the jihadists.

主持人: Oh

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: to ISIS and but some of it went to other groups Kurds Jews and so on. So basically Syria broke apart because you had armed groups all over the place.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So that may be what they're planning to do with Iran because if the other alternatives are not there it's easy to pour arms into the country especially when you have some ethnic issues with especially in Kurdistan Baluchistan and the Arab territories even among the Turkish minority you just pour in the arms and there'll be basically the consequence will be ethnic ethnic violence.

主持人: Yeah. So, um do you think the current regime after looking at the example of North Korea we may may finally cross the threshold and weaponize it nuclear program as a deterrent?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Oh, it's that's unknown. I mean Trump claimed it solved the problem because he bombed the main installations. We don't know how much damage it did.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And then the the Iranians have been quite smart about it that basically their attitude is if you think you did that that's fine you can believe that but we don't know actually how much uranium there is and what's happening with it. So if the revolution I mean the present government have advisors civilians who are much per in favor of some sort of settlement with the United States but with the revolutionary guards if they were totally in power I don't think there would be any any moderation with them they would have followed much more the North Korean model.

主持人: Yeah. So, you know, some scholars argue the West, which we represent the moral high ground, should actively intervene to liberate Iran. As a historian, do you view US ideological pressure as a genuine effort to support a freedom or it's simply a tool for hijgemony like global hijgemony?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, we can just take the example of of Iraq.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Or Libya. I mean, how much was rhetoric about especially for internal consumption, American consumption, how much did they really believe that they were going to be creating democracy? I I I mean I was teaching a course on Iraq before the invasion. read a lot of books about Iraq and my students basically had scratched their heads when I thought whenever Bush talked about democracy because yeah knew anything about Iraqi history the basically once it broke the central government it was 100% sure that there would be black fragmentation in the whole society there yeah all all the conventional books on Iraq basically led you to that.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Somehow in Washington they built up this notion that the the country was dying for democracy and all they had to do was get rid of Saddam Hussein.

主持人: Yeah. I think that's a big problem nowadays particularly for the neoconservative part ideology. They always believe that yeah we are the good guy they're the bad guy. Those are non democratic government. Those are evil government. we have to get rid of them to liberate the people. they have that um moral argument which is hard to argue against because just from the ideology perspective everybody want to be liberated to have freedom to have rights have human rights right however on the other side when you look at the reality all the history just tell you this is such a bad idea it kills more people it kills more civilian the country become a rubber state like all it's become super dysfunctional there's no rule of law and it's A it's a warm bat for the extremist groups like ISIS right those terrorist groups kind of grow out of that chaos so from a historian perspective how do we break this kind of cycle because right now in the western media they often talk about oh we are trying to save the Iranian people we are trying to stop the government from massacring their civilians which is part of them is true but again you the conse consequence of your activity will create another bigger chaos which is often not talked about enough.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, I mean I think there the way to deal with it is to show the hypocrisy. I mean they're talking now about military intervention to prevent civilians being killed in the last two years has been backing up Israel in

主持人: Yeah. Exactly.

埃弗兰·阿巴米ان教授: You know you're nowadays people openly say you know what Israel carried out genocide.

主持人: Yeah. Exactly.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: What was done with United States endorsement US arms and US money. So for the US to suddenly turn around and say they're in Iran in involved in Iran um especially militarily to save Iranians from being killed. It it's just so hypocritical. I it it'd be hard to actually sell that line.

主持人: I think I think majority I I would say like uh probably uh this is also divided in the ideology ground. So if you look at the Trump supporters like those neoccom wararmonger those senate like Lindsey Graham for example he's like pounding the table we're going to liberate the Iranian people. On the other hand he's supporting Israel doing genocide in Gaza like uh for two years completely two years. he didn't say a thing about like liberating the people the Palestinians. So I think for those type of the supporters, they don't really have the critical thinking or they they they tend to believe whatever the supreme leader like a Trump says like in the media. How do we kind of break that barrier like

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. Well, Graham can talk like that, but actually if there was actually need for rounding up American troops or national guard to go to to occupy it, then they'll have second thoughts about that.

主持人: Yeah, I think there going to be a huge backlash because American lives if any soldier got killed in that war or whatever that intervention, Trump's support base will have a civil war internally because there a certain part of the MAGA base is against the war against any foreign interventions.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah.

主持人: Yeah. So, some of my audience actually have a very interesting question. They are curious about how does Iranian people view the Chinese because I know like nowadays the current regime is actually working with China to do business and sustain some of the economic activities but some others would argue that China is actually supporting such a authoritarian regime which is suppressing its own people. What's your perspective on that?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: It's hard to tell. I mean for I think for many Iranians China is actually successful model for economic development. So they're in awe of the of the Chinese model. I don't think it could it's a model that it could be replicated in Iran. But many people actually thought that way. There was a famous president in Iran who actually was sort of openly saying that Iran Iran should follow the Chinese model.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: It's I think it it's very different partly because the Iranian working class is much more actually assertive. Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: There's a long tradition of labor activities and to create a discipline cheap labor in Iran is is a is a pie in the sky. It's not it's not feasible to do that.

主持人: It's that's because of the culture, right? Like the the the cultural difference, you think? Uh

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: yeah, I cultural people are much more assertive about about rights especially they're being exploited. So it's it's you don't have that sort of pool of disciplined labor.

主持人: Yeah. So I think China and Iran are all like you know countries with a long history and um they they also take pride in their identity right uh I would say like recent centuries China has adopt a very successful model but part of that pieces is like a really good relationship with the United States why didn't Iranian government kind of adopt that route I know like you know 1979 that uh the abduction of the the American embassy, right? Like you have you kind of create a scar on that. But like why didn't the the government try to kind of move away from the ideology? Is that kind of kind of locked in because of the clergic regime?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, there were two lines. I mean on the rhetoric, you know, in the street for demonstrations, the regime often used these silly slogans, you know, death to is United States.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Death to Israel, this was mostly rhetoric.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: But when you came down to actually negotiations, the Iranian governments, even conservative ones, very pro-clerical ones, were willing to negotiate compromise with United States.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So it wasn't like they were unwilling to do it. They would have followed the Chinese model about a rapro with United States. It was always a United States with the exception of Obama. the other United States presidents including after Bush um and thenuh more recently with the Democran relationship ship has been determined by the United States rather than by Iran.

主持人: Do you think Israel play a huge role in this? Because you know Benjamin Netanyahu he basically came to US Congress in the 90s like pounding around the table say we have to invade Iran. We have to dismantle the Iran government. Do you think that plays a huge role in the US foreign policy with Iran?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. I mean the reason Netanyahu was so upset was because Obama actually made an agreement with Iran.

主持人: Yeah. The JCPOA, right? Like he he actually

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So that was the only period where the Iran American president was willing to actually negotiate with Iran.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And there have been other periods where even you have a despicable regime in Iran. They were willing to negotiate. It was the negotiation came from United States.

主持人: Yeah. So do you think um because of the Israel's influence on US policy makers probably until the time when the Israel lobby do not take control of the Americans president and senators we could have a final negotiation with Iran like the US because I think from my perspective as American right the Iranian doesn't pose any threat to America like they even though they are advancing certain technology they have no incentive to really bomb US however for Israel that's a different story because they are all regional power in Middle East

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: yeah I mean you're right I think it's uh it's also it goes back to basically after the revolution 79

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: when the US lost basically its embassy in Thran what they did was they outsourc forced US policy on Iran to Israel.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So basically they said the Israelis know what's happening in Iran. We'll rely on Israel to tell us what's going on and we'll rely on them. So the advice always on how to deal with Iran was actually in in Washington. The decision was made by Israel. The exception was Obama

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: when he said we need to actually come to an agreement with Iran.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: That's what then Netanyahu basically became frantic and he invited himself to Congress.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: To appeal to the Republicans and AIPAC to say this was the worst agreement you could have signed.

主持人: Yeah. And so then Trump basically echoed the same. This was the worst agreement you America's ever signed. In fact, it was a very good agreement and people who denounced it didn't read it. Um and it would the present crisis wouldn't exist if the agreement was actually kept.

主持人: Exactly.

主持人: Yeah. I actually made a video just describing that part of history because it's very tough negotiation. Iranian within itself like you have the moderate one who want to negotiate with us and you also have the extremist party which like we're will be the hardliners we're never going to negotiate with Americans or the Israel and I think what Trump did withdrawing from that JCPOA really killed the moderate because their argument failed. the hardlining will say look when you spend all this effort energy negotiate with Americans and three years later they withdraw what's the outcome of this it's horrible right so I think it's uh it's really sad situation to to watch right now because of the the withdrawal of that agreement

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: well what is interesting is in if you look at the mainstream media in America yesterday there was a long aret piece In New York Times, they talk about all these conflicts between Iran and United States. They have a complete amnesia about that agreement and that it was the United States that actually destroyed that agreement. It's as if that agreement never existed.

主持人: Yeah, that's I think it's a propaganda machine, you know, like it just tried to sell the story that Iran is such a evil regime. We have to really dismantle it. There's no other way around. I think that's that's what they try to sell.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. Or I mean I don't think it's that it's basically from the top it's structured to do that. It's just basically tunnel vision.

主持人: I know

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: that they perceive it the way the actually they're in a way from hindsight or from historical background see the situation. So for them, if there are horrendous mistakes, it's always on the other side, not on on our side.

主持人: The the problem I kind of see the argument that Benjamin Netanyahu is presenting is I just don't see any way around from like he I think his goal is really just to destroy the current state of the Iranian government and make Iran into a dysfunctional state. There's no other way around. like he will say, "Oh, if you negotiate with the Iranian people and Iranian government, you sign that JCPOA, that's a terrible agreement and they're going to use that money they're going to make from that lifting all the sanctions. They're going to really develop the technology and eventually they're going to build a nuclear bomb. It's not falsifiable because you are just like asserting those things that didn't happen."

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. I don't know how how you can actually argue with Netanyahu because his vision his goal is already set. There's only one outcome out of this like he want to dismantle Iran's government.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. I want to say that. I mean he keeps on saying that he loves Iran. He loves Iranians. U they could have a good friend relationship but if you can't negotiate and or even if you negotiate then you pull the rug out of it. Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Then it's I think the logic leads to what you said that the politension is a dismantling of the state.

主持人: I think he doesn't want to negotiate. He doesn't like to negotiate. If you look at the history like he just killed all the negotiators like if you send a top negotiator to negotiation site, they they have those snipers or other drone attacks just kill those negotiator. I don't know how they negotiate like by doing that. So what what do you think could be the outcome of the current protest? I kind of see the rhetoric kind of tuned down a little bit. I part of the reason I think Trump decide not to attack Iran is all the other surrounding countries like Qatar, they say, "Oh, you you cannot use our military side to attack Iran for this time." I think those kind of push Trump back, not really attack Iran now.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: that I think is where yeah I'm not sure even if they attack whether that will solve the problem I mean I way I can see it is the present sort of no war no peace but constant tension continuing indefinitely because regime is not going to collapse and you actually there's no also feasible possibility of invasion occupation then it's a ongoing crisis. Unfortunately,

主持人: yeah, I I just feel it's really unfortunate that um Trump and the other leaders that say, "Oh, we're standing with the Iranian people. You guys should just continue to protest." And then the government commit this massacre, kill a lot of Iranian people. And then they did they did nothing. They just say, "Oh, I think the Iranian government is behaving better." Like they they said they're going to hand 800 people. Now they stop it. So we're going to deactivate the tension. What about those people who believed in your propaganda and go on the street like protests?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, I mean or actually the protests people will protest other ways rather than going into the demonstration.

主持人: Exactly.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Or some people might even rally around the government. So it's it's not a one-way street.

主持人: Yeah. I think one of the biggest difference between the nowadays protest and the revolution happened in 1979 is the army's attitude right I think right now the supreme leader did not lose any control or any support from the revolutionary guards so a lot of people who say oh if the US not really invading Iran the regime will just continue to exist

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: well you know I the Shah had a huge military one of the biggest militaries, but in fact it was a conscript army.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: He could rely on 7,000 imperial guards.

主持人: 7,000.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: That was the only real reliable force. 7,000. You can't carry out even a co with a 7,000.

主持人: Yeah. The present regime has a basically a very ideological revolutionary guards.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Who are volunteers or especially chosen from families that support the regime. But there these are people who are willing to go out and kill civilians on lows.

主持人: Yeah. So what do you think about the support of the current superior leader? I know like the clergic regime they typically have a lot of grassroot support like from the the very poor class you know that people who have no land or any like you know income those are the typical supporter for the clergic regime is that is that the case because like a lot of protester they are the bazar class they actually have money they have some influence in the political system

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: uh it's not the very poor for it's much more support from uh small farmers, countryside uh sons of uh I would say lower middle class.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Uh who come from very uh traditional religious families.

主持人: Mhm.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: They especially recruited into the revolutionary guards. Mhm. Uh so there for them uh there is no cultural clash. Uh so there is also between them and the demonstrators there's a class difference because many demonstrators are often educated or from the modern middle class or university students. So uh that is then seen in in terms of class difference uh which in a way reinforces the strength of the revolutionary guards.

主持人: Mhm.

主持人: Yeah. It's uh right now I don't see any way of this revolution guard turn against the supreme leader. Um even though you see the social unrest but like they when they counting the number they think that that's nowhere comp comparable to the 1979 right you have 3 million people on the street protesting. Yeah.

主持人: Yeah. So that's very interesting. Is there any possibility they can like vote in public for change of the constitution? Because like you know 1979 when Khomeini does gain the power he did it through this rush voting on the on the constitution

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: there I mean the actual constitution has clauses where you can you can amend the constitution. they've already amended the constitution when Khomeini died so that Khamenei could succeed him so that there is a precedent for amendments or changes so there is on paper that

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: but I don't think the present structure will permit that unless there is so much continued pressure from below the rational thing then would be to sort of change the constitution to make it less theocratic, more secular and that would stabilize the regime. But again, you need a lot of foresight and flexibility on people who have authority to do that.

主持人: Mhm. I heard like reported by the news there are thousands of Iranian people got killed in the during this social unrest and protest you know in the street. Do you think that kind of cause the current regime lose legitimacy? I think like when this protest happens that means like they're already losing leg legitimacy because a lot of people are against the current regime.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. I mean the bloodshed I think increases tensions but the regime is now actually arguing that some of the people killed are killed by the demonstrators and that it's the people from the revolutionary guards that are getting killed. So yeah using this also as a way of bolstering the regime.

主持人: Yeah, I definitely see their reporting on the revolution guard got killed like there's like hundreds of them like a hund something because of the protesters they have weapons like this weapon must come from other foreign imported right

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: I mean the regime claims that I don't know if it's true but it's probably good propaganda line to follow

主持人: yeah yeah so it's uh I don't know it's uh it's very sad to see what happened nowadays in Iran And uh I just feel like it's it's a deadlock. It's it's probably going to stay in this format for a while because the current regime won't collapse unless the US uh intervate invade the country. But the US also faced a huge consequence if they do that and also it's going to be and end up in a very worse situation because the his history cannot tell us repeatedly that what will happen. What's what do you think could be a possible outcome like a good outcome kind of this current situation?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Um I can't see a good out outcome unless you know people at the top in Iran I mean both in Iran and Washington if Washington agreed to some sort of settlement which means it's going back to the Obama agreement which they say is they're not going to do that. So that that excludes that regard. Iran can also open up but whether that would solve the problem is not doesn't deal with it because they can open up but the sanctions will continue the economic crisis will continue.

主持人: Do you think the US and the Israel government may do something what they did to the Venezuela? They do special operation and capture the supreme leader that style like they they just like kidnap him and then take him back to Washington for trial.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, that it's it's a stunt. I mean, what they did is not a success in Venezuela. It's a stunt for the American TV watchers that US can do this. But it doesn't solve the problem. The the the the same regime is still in power. Yeah.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So they have a guy in in in Brooklyn in prison. Uh

主持人: yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: And this the Trump calls says he's going to basically run the oil in Venezuela, but no oil company where really wants to go in there. They know how unstable it is. So that I mean if even if they grab Khomeini I don't know what the how is that going to solve the problem.

主持人: Yeah, I kind of see. I I I I still think um the better way is just like form some kind of negotiation, go back to the JCPOA style nuclear settlement agreement, have a international organization, go in Iran, check on those nuclear facilities, ensure both parties kind of follow that agreement and then have a peaceful transformation of Iran society. That would be really ideal.

埃弗ran·阿巴米安教授: Yeah.

主持人: Ideal situation. Yeah,

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: but that's all in the hands of Washington and I don't see that happening.

主持人: Yeah. Do you do you think Iran's current situation is the outcome of um the tragedy of the state power competition in the global format because US and also Israel they want to dominate the region and Iran is a regional power that's why like it was targeted by both countries.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. I mean, Iran also could have been much more savvy on how to deal with that. Right after the revolution, the the hostage crisis was unnecessary. It was done to do with Iran's power. It was basically to create a a clerical republic. that was the agenda of the

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: so those use of those foreign issues to strengthen internal power of the clergy had its costs and they didn't the government in Iran should have thought about the costs they were arrogant about that that they could deal with that um but so actions have their costs and um it's basically created a much more of an antagonistic situation both between Iran and Iran Israel and United States. But even if those things had not been there, I think you're right. There is a question of state rivalry

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: and Israel and US saw Iran as a basically a state rival in the region.

主持人: Yeah, I saw there's some comment in my um video about Iran history. They basically say that Khomeini and Khamenei they are basically communist disguised as a clergic class. So you don't think that's a reason argument? There's no similarity between those two ideology. I mean they think that communist ideology is also similar to a religion ideology.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah. But these guys are I mean these guys were vehemently anti Marxist anti-leftist. There there was the idea I mean the the royalist created this myth that somehow the clergy had been educated in Moscow in secret places to

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Uh it it makes a good James Bond story but there's no evidence and no truth in that. No,

主持人: I know if you look at the the communist countries um history they destroy all the religions like they don't want any religion or any like you know religion class. Well, even if they did that, but the idea that somehow the these guys in control in Iran are linked to the Soviet Union, there is no Soviet Union now.

主持人: So, all right. Professor, what do you think about the current United States foreign policy compared to what China is adopting? You know, like China has been criticized for working with all this authoritarian regime. But on the other hand, if you look at US foreign policy, they put on sanctions but for the country who got sanctioned actually working with China may be supporting a lifeline. So how do you kind of view that in a like nonmoral like you can you can view it from a moral perspective and nonmoral perspective like how do you view that argument like which style of foreign policy is more favorable in your perspective? I

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: I mean I don't see the that difference. I mean the both China and United States their interest is their own basically national interests. So in some places they will deal with fairly despicable states if it's in their interests. If it's not interest they might then talk about liberty, individualism and stuff. I think the US is more willing to use that language when they disagree with the state.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: The Chinese government are basically more down to earth. They say you know we'll deal with everyone. It doesn't matter what their internal policies are.

主持人: Yeah. So basically you see like both country actually adopt a pragmatic way of handling their foreign relationships. It it's the only difference that I think our government the United States government have this ideology tool they can use when they try to invade countries like Iraq because on the other hand they are working with Saudi Arabia. They have no problem of they killing a US citizen like like a US green card holder in the embassy like they don't have any problem with that.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Well, I mean now I think that there's a more complicated situation in that the US basically says it's previous agreements have no meaning that can change night.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: The Chinese policy is much more basically predictable that once we have an agreement we keep it. there is a rule of law or international law will observe that.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: So for most countries it makes more sense to have agreements with China rather than United States because you you don't know or you could be part of NATO have a long relationship with United States and then one day the president gets up and says no no I'm part of your territory.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: You're an ally. The Chinese don't behave that way.

主持人: Yeah. I I it pains me to watch the current US government doing all those rhetoric and saying like we have to have Greenland and then splitting all these lies that the Russians and Chinese are going to occupy Greenland. No, they're not. They don't have anything around that that place. Like US has military forces staying in that region like just right now on the Greenland. And we can put more troops on the Greenland if we want. we decide chose not to like now that we all of a sudden we want to take that territory that just pains me to watch it.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: It's not even that. I mean even trade agreements that you sign and been long there suddenly you wake up and Washington says no we would changing the rules. I mean the Chinese haven't done that so far that I know of. Oh

主持人: yeah. I think I think it's just like I I look at the headlines a lot of Western leaders kind of all going to China and start to warm up the relationship. You know, this is basically a collapse of US ally system. Basically,

主持人: we just don't have any real allies like no allies can trust us anymore.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: No, I mean the Chinese government is I think more capitalistic than American government because to have capitalism you need some rule of law and predictability and they're following that principle where the US is actually breaking all those principles. So um it's not good for business if you don't have some reliable rules to obey.

主持人: I know, professor. I don't know if you follow the US domestic policy or like politics. Um, but I think the midterm is coming. Do you see the Democrat party may win back the House?

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah, I mean the polls now seem to indicate that the the Republicans are in pro trouble especially I mean not because of foreign policy but economic situation. I mean prices inflation the job market loss of health care rising prices of healthcare especially um so a lot of people here I think feel that they've been taken for a ride.

主持人: Yeah.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Uh so there might be a a backlash in the in the elections. Of course, the Republicans also have means to try to limit that and basically suppression of the vote and so on. So, we'll see what happens.

主持人: Yeah. Do do you worry that US may someday turn into authoritarian regime? We kind of see some bad signs like, you know, you have the ICE agent in Minnesota shooting American citizen and all the lies that the current administration is splitting out in in front of us.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Uh yeah it's I mean moving that way I I I expect there'll be enough basically counter movement from that.

主持人: Yeah. Yeah. I I think so. I firmly believe that some of the opposition parties and the movement will be happening because people are not happy about what happened under the Trump administration. So look at the polls. Um 58% of the Americans think the Trump's first year of governance is a failure. So hopefully we'll see like uh it's really great honor to have you on the podcast and I really enjoy the conversation with you discussing Iran situation. I really hope the Iranian government can settle down like um just basically stabilize the situation and find a way out and negotiate a deal with the US and probably Israel. Okay, we'll keep our fingers crossed.

埃弗兰·阿巴米安教授: Yeah, same. Thank you so much.

主持人: Thanks for the program. Thank you.