All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the Sunday market futures. We are live. We are three minutes early. I was like, you know what? I'm ready to go. we might as well get started. And we are here. Thank everybody for being here. Hope everyone had a great weekend. We've got November officially starting, folks. It's kind of crazy. It really is kind of crazy. We got two months left of 2025. It is November 2nd. Uh this year has gone relatively quick. I mean, October was up and down in regards to the stock market. We had a ton of stuff to cover last week with the Fed and big tech earnings, but October is done and we're here. We are live.

We got a lot to talk about. We have a bunch of different things that went viral over the weekend in regards to new interviews, particularly around Sam Alman and Satia Nadella. So, we're going to talk about that. Uh, we got Trump who's doing a CBS 60inut special interview right now. So, there's likely going to be a ton of quotes coming in uh throughout the course of this uh market future show. I mean, we're already getting quotes right now. We have a couple of clips already from the interview. So throughout the entire hour, you're probably going to get a bunch of different quotes and I will put them on the screen and we'll analyze what's going on. Trump already tweeted like five minutes ago that we will be a third world country without the tariffs going into effect. The Supreme Court will be looking at the tariffs case this week. So that's going to be really important.

So we'll talk about that. Uh and then we got some updates from Buffett. He had earnings with Bergkshire Hathway. This is the last Q3 ever for Warren Buffett and Birkshshire Hathway. So we'll talk about some of the stuff they did. We have a bunch of different macro stats to look at, some charts in regards to what to expect in November. And then tomorrow, you've got Palunteer earnings. So, we're going to do a little bit of a preview on that. It is indeed happy Palunteer Eve. This is what this is the uh 4812 uh 15. This is I think the 18th quarter I've covered for Pounder. Just kind of crazy. And quite frankly, it might be the best quarter. So, we're going to talk about that. And then we got Grabby Grab as well. So, I mean, this is going to be a jam-packed week. Tomorrow is going to be absolutely insane with Palunteer and Grab, and we'll do a preview on what's going on with that. But, we have a lot a lot a lot to talk about.

So, thank you everybody for being here. Before we get started, deep dives are out. Two new deep dives. We have Nebas and Grabby. Grab is a uh company that I I did a 17page deep dive on about three months ago. I I I refined the deep dive over the weekend and I officially published it on Substack. Uh, and so there's the link right there. You guys can check it out. Free to subscribe. Uh, no payw wall, anything like that. And then Nebius, a lot of people were asking for it. And I looked at Nebas and I'll talk about it more tomorrow. Maybe we can talk about at the end of the show if people have some questions.

Uh, look, it is really hard to not be bullish on Nebus Nebius from the simple perspective that it is a full stack integrated approach to data centers. And I think the bulls that understood that argument back when it was $20 have been supremely rewarded for it. Uh, I obviously did not understand that thesis, nor did I really pay attention to it. And then the first half of the the Substack or I guess the first kind of like eight paragraphs of the article, I talk about why I likely missed the story. Uh, but at 130, look, I did the numbers. The numbers are in the chat or in in the in the chat in the substack. It's not that scary. It really isn't.

Now, there is a large execution risk on if they can get another hyperscaler deal, but I mean at 94 it was a really good buy and unfortunately I just sold puts on it. But at 130, honestly, it's not that scary. The execution is the biggest risk. But I do think the company has a moat. And I think that's the biggest thing I've been concerned about, Neb, is like, do they have a moat or are they just another data center plate? I think they have a moat. And as a result, uh, it's exciting. So, I don't have a position yet. I talk about why I don't have a position in the article, but it is on my list for 2026, and we're going to see what goes on from there.

All right, let's get started. Thank you everybody for being here. In 14 minutes, we are going to get the overnight markets to open and uh we're going to see what happens in overnight.

I think we're going to open up relatively green. We are up 0.3%. Trump has confirmed there is a USChina deal and so we'll talk about what's going on with the US China deal.

I don't know if China has confirmed that there is an official China deal and that's why I think we are green, but we're going to get some details on that uh once the overnight markets open and we'll talk about that. We have some new charts on the labor market. That's also really important to look at. We've been talking a lot about the labor market over the past couple weeks. The biggest thing that we looked at was the amount of layoffs that we had last week, especially with Amazon with those 30,000 layoffs. So, we're going to talk about that and some implications on the labor market.

But overall, I think the reason we're green right now overnight is because it looks like there's some some stability between Trump and China. again they met back on Thursday and that helped the markets on Friday. We did close green for the sixth month in a row in October. So we closed out October up 2.4% for the month. Um and then overall, you know, November is relatively green usually and so we had a bit of a choppy October. Bitcoin and Ethereum kind of sucked in October. Maybe that changes for November and if that does that would be bullish.

Now Ethereum is getting a little bit of a boost. It was pushing 4,000. Now it's back to 38.83. Bitcoin as well pushing above 110. It was at 104 at one point last week. So, I mean, I think if there was any month for Bitcoin and Ethereum to do well, it would be November, as Bitcoin actually tends to do a little bit better in November than October. But, we're going to see how these turn out as we get into the end of the month.

All right, so in about 12 minutes, we are going to have the overnight markets open and then we'll get into all the topics I've lined up after the overnight markets open. Before that, let's just take a look at this video because it has absolutely gone viral. Sam Alman was on the Brad Gersonner podcast with Satia Nadella and Brad Gersonner asked a relatively simple question which is hey I keep hearing you have 13 billion in revenue but you've committed to spend 1.4 trillion I think every day all of us question could this be a bubble that explodes if open AAI isn't able to officially spend on these commitments that they've committed to spend on.

and here is what Mr. Sam Alman had to say to that question. >> How, you know, how can a company with 13 billion in revenues make 1.4 trillion of spend commitments? You know, and and and you've heard the criticism. >> First of all, we're doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you want to sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer. >> I just enough like, you know, people are I I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. I don't I don't think you want, >> including myself. including myself >> who talk with a lot of like breathless concern about our comput stuff or whatever that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we we could sell you know your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter whatever about this very quickly. We do plan for revenue to grow steeply. Revenue is growing steeply. We are taking a forward bet that it's going to continue to grow grow and that not only will chache keep growing but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing that AI that can automate science will create huge value. So, you know, there are not many times that I want to be a public company, but one of the rare times it's appealing is when those people are writing these ridiculous open AI is about to go out of business and you know, whatever. I would love to tell them they could just short the stock and I would love to see them get burned on that. Um, but you know, I we carefully plan, we understand where the technology, where the capability is going to grow, go and and how the products we can build around that and the revenue we can generate. we might screw it up like this is the bet that we're making and we're taking a risk along with that. A certain risk is if we don't have the compute, we will not be able to generate the revenue or make the models at these at this kind of scale. >> Exactly. And >> let me just say one thing uh Brad as both a partner and um an investor there is not been a single business plan that I've seen from OpenAI that they have put in and not beaten it. So in some sense this is the one place where you know in terms of their growth and just even the business it's been unbelievable execution quite frankly I mean obviously openai everyone talks about all the success in the usage and what have you but even um I would say all up uh the business execution has been just pretty unbelievable.

Okay, so the reason that went so viral over the weekend, we got about nine minutes till the overnight markets open and uh then we'll get into all the other topics. But the reason that went viral and when I saw it, I was quite surprised as well is number one, it's a legit question. Okay, Broadcom, Oracle, AMD, Nvidia, there was an article last week from the Wall Street Journal have gained 630 billion in market cap just from the announcements of the deals that they have uh committed to Nvidia. I mean AMD probably will be stuck at $158 a share for everyone. I know there's a big retail army in AMD. The o the literal only reason that stock is at 250 is because of this opening eye deal. That's it. And if someone else has a different reason, let me know. But that was the reason that got the stock to break out.

So it is so and the reason is not to downplay the significance of that deal. It's rather to un to underwrite how important the deal is and the spending commitments that are necessary to get AMD to that $400 billion market cap or to get Oracle to that $800 billion market cap which is pledged from OpenAI. So when Brad Gersonner who by the way is one of the bigger investors from the previous two years he was early in 2023 in the private rounds of OpenAI so he knows the company very well. When your biggest supporter is asking you a very simple question he's basically giving you a a layup. He's not trying to give you a gotcha question. this guy has a ton of your stock. Why would he be trying to make you look bad?

He's trying to give you the opportunity to simply say this is if obviously I'm all I would be like look a lot of people think we're doing 13 billion in revenue. We are doing significantly more than that which he wouldn't be lying about. I think the estimate is closer to 25 billion in revenue. Number two, our estimates are that by 2027 we're probably going to be hitting triple digits. So about 100 billion in revenue, which Sam Alman mentions a little bit later in the podcast, but he does it in kind of like a an egotistic way, right? He makes like he he kind of says it he says it in a way that's bragging when in reality he could have just answered the question be like look we're projecting we don't know if it's going to happen but we think by 2027 we could get to 100 billion revenue which makes the 1.4 4 trillion spend, which is only about 14 times the amount of revenue they're they're bringing in. Not look as crazy as the $1 13 billion annual run rate.

And then he could have said, you know, let people say whatever they want to say. We have amazing people like you, Brad, that support us. We have amazing people like Satia and Jensen and Lisa Sue that support us. And because we have all these really smart people supporting our company and our growth, we are very confident that we're going to be able to commit to the spending that we have said that we're going to commit to publicly. That's it. That's all you have to say. That's literally all he It was such a layup for him to give a compliment to all the people that are trusting that his company's going to succeed. He could give them a compliment back and say because they believe in us so much, you know, we're so excited to continue working on this journey. And that would have been the end of it.

Instead, he turns into this like narcissistic, oh, I wish we were a public company so I could tell people to short the stock. He tried to pull a Karp moment and it's like there's a reason Karp is Karp. Very few people can emulate what Karp does and still be relatively charismatic. Most people that try to do that are not going to be charismatic. They're going to just seem like dicks. And uh you know that's that's what he ended up doing. So I thought it was a a weird response. I think it was overly defensive. You could tell Gersonner was taken back for it

and Gersner you know publicly commented on Twitter. He was like I think Sam is getting too much flack for that. I mean look in the grand scheme of things is this going to matter? No. But like at the end of the day, if Sam is acting like that to one of his biggest supporters, aka Brad Gersonner, I wonder how he acts to other people, you know? I really do. And and it's one of those things where it really makes you think in terms of how this is playing out. So again, Gersonner tried to defend him right here, saying that people are reading it to say I'm being too feisty. We laughed about it. I'm like, sure, but in in an age where every single AI company is depending on this company, OpenAI, which is the catch 22. It's like even if you hate Sam Alman, even if that clip pissed you off so much, even if you think this guy is squirmy and you just want nothing to do with him, if you are invested in this market, you have to believe OpenAI is going to win.

It is just that simple. And I would love any analysis from someone telling me that OpenAI can lose and the AI bull market can continue because I've looked at the numbers. I'm working on a Substack piece about this coming out next week and it it there is no way OpenAI essentially they're too big to fail. It's just that simple. They're too big to fail given this.

And you can say, "Oh, well, what about XAI Gemini?" Sure. But the reason AMD is at a $400 billion market cap is because of OpenAI. The reason Oracle is pushing 700 800 billion is because of OpenAI. The reason Nvidia to an extent has added the level of market cap that's added is because of OpenAI. So, at the end of the day, it's like unless a company like Gemini or or uh XAI massively overtake the 800 million weekly activives that CHABT has, feels like opening eye is too big. And as a result, they kind of have to win. So you kind of have to root for their success if you're invested in the AI ecosystem. But the guy who's running it is obviously not the most charismatic in terms of how we answer that question.

Yeah. Alman said we want to 100x those GPUs. And the one thing you have to commend OpenAI for is that look, if you're invested in IEN or Nebus or like all the all these data center plays need someone to contract massive amounts of GPU spend, massive amounts of compute capacity. And at the end of the day, uh, OpenAI is one of those companies that is again committed 1.4 trillion. Like I haven't heard a lot of other companies commit 1.4 trillion in the next 10 years, which honestly might be cheap. So, it's just one of those ways that the the overall structure of AI seems to be playing out. But obviously, that interview went viral because, you know, Sam kind of sounded like a dick.

The one thing he did say though later in the interview and we'll listen to some other parts of it in a bit is uh that we are on track to get 100 billion of revenue by 2027 which is a big deal. Uh I think that changed a lot of estimates. If they're underounting that 100 billion and it's actually going to be like 200 billion something like that. It really makes OpenAI at 500 billion probably look undervalued. At that point it's trading at 5x sales which is cheap. And you know, if that's the case, then you're likely going to get some more momentum out of OpenAI over the coming years.

So, that's what we got. All right, 3 minutes until the market opens. Thank you everybody for being here. We got a lot to talk about after these overnight markets. I think we're going to get some big moves up and down, but S&P's up.3% in the future, so there's nothing too crazy to expect. Uh, Bitcoin Ethereum tried to make a little bit of a move, but you know, they're not making too much move. So, we're going to see in the next two minutes how this market opens.

Trump just finished his CBS interview, so I'll get you some quotes from the interview. I can't play any clips because CBS is like really strong on the copyright, but I'll get you some data on uh the new quotes that we have from Trump, he talked a lot about China, and so the markets could be pricing in a little bit more of geopolitical stability versus instability.

In regards to China as well, honestly, the most important thing about November, it's not even really that the overnight markets are about to open. It's not Buffett's cash pile. It's not uh it's not OpenAI. It's not Nvidia. It's it's really not anything other than the fact that we have a new candle for November, folks.

All right, 5 seconds. Let's see what we got. Overnight markets for November are officially open. Here we go. By the way, sorry if I'm late for a lot of people. We had daylight savings in the United States. I know that kind of messes up the time for a bunch of people in the uh the international parts of the world, but yeah. So now we will officially be starting every Sunday at this time for you guys. S&P that's up 7% 684. We got a green S&P. SoFi is up about 74% as well. AMD that's up 1.12%. Hoodie 148 that did have a 6% move on uh on Friday which was very nice to see. Palunteer 203 that's up 1.2%. We will do a little bit of a pounder preview.

Nvidia, that's up n7%. Now, I I'm I'm happy that Nvidia is up almost 1% because Trump did say in that CBS interview that um I talked to Jensen and essentially he said that we agreed that Blackwell should not be going well, he agreed. I don't know if Jensen agreed that Blackwell should not be going to our biggest competitors. I don't know what that necessarily means for Blackwell chips and I definitely don't think we're getting China revenue anytime soon. Jensen did have another interview that will look at it. well in a little bit. But, uh, Trump did kind of signal that, you know, maybe Blackwell is not going to be going to China anytime soon. So, the fact that Nvidia is actually up and not going down on that, I think is nice to see.

Okay, cool. So, let's get into it. I think we'll start off with uh this Jensen interview because this probably frames a lot of stuff that we got to talk about. So this was Jensen. He was on Fox this morning and this is everything that he had to say about China, Trump, what's going on.

>> Tell me about manufacturing this Blackwell chip in Arizona Jensen. How difficult was that to achieve to bring such an important chip production here to America? >> Well, first of all, AI is a industrial revolution and this is the most important technology of our time, potentially the most important technology of all time. And when President Trump first took office, uh he wanted us to manufacture these critical technologies on shore. He wanted to re-industrialize the United States. He wants to have energy growth. He wants to make sure that United States is a leader in artificial intelligence. And in order to do in order to do so, we need to lead in energy. We need to lead in chips. We need to lead in building AI infrastructures and factories including lead in building AI models of course, but also using AI in all the different applications in various industries from healthcare to manufacturing to robotics to you know science and and industry. So uh he wanted he wanted that uh in his administration and he wanted it at the speed of light and so I told him that we would bring manufacturing back within 9 months with the partnership of TSMC which is an incredible partner for the United States Foxcon Wistron Amcor and Spill we've been able to manufacture now the most advanced AI chip in the world completely in the United States and Arizona the the the the the workers worked incredibly hard the mechanical engineers, the mechanical, the electricians, the plumbers, the construction workers, they all worked around the clock. Nine months later, we're now in volume production of the most advanced AI chip in the world. I >> Is it much more expensive to do it in the United States versus Taiwan? >> It is. It is more more expensive to do in the United States, but we're going to get better over time. you know, reman reonshoring manufacturing and the first uh plant of its kind. It's going to cost a little bit more money, but that's okay. the the uh the national security benefits uh the supply chain resilience benefits the job creation benefits here in the United States you know we're going to manufactured chips systems and those systems are going these these AI supercomputers are going to go into what are going to be AI factories which are going to be used by every single industry in the United States and so this is going to create over time you know my guess is millions of jobs, millions of jobs and really really high quality jobs, you know, from high really skilled trade craft. And

>> so you got Jensen obviously very excited about the American manufacturing and re-industrialization part and that is what Trump wants to hear. Here's what he had to say specifically when he was asked about what this means for the China part of Nvidia's business.

>> We'll suspend the implementation of relevant export controls. What does this agreement mean for you and Nvidia with regard to selling to China? Well, what an achievement. This is a milestone meeting, a milestone deal, a historic deal. And the readouts uh from from all the news that I've read uh just the respectful uh the friendly relationship that they've built uh between the two presidents and of course between the two countries. Therefore, uh the the post from Secretary Heg Heath and uh and all the readouts from uh Secretary Bessant have have all been extraordinary. You know, this really creates the conditions I hope uh for Nvidia to be able to go back and compete in market in China. Trump 45 in the in President Trump's first administration. Uh he set the tone perfectly for America to lead in technology and make sure that America American companies have the best and first but for American technology companies to go around the world to compete and win. In the last four years, the administration really set us on a path that really backfired. the policies have really backfired from a 95% market share in in the China market which is one of the most important markets in the world when President Trump left office and video's market share in China is now 0%. And so this is really time and it's a great great opportunity for us to reset back to the Trump 45 policies for the Trump 45 policies where AI American AI companies are able to go around go to China compete for compete in the marketplace and be able to diffuse and and proliferate American technology standards around the world so that we could set global standards so that uh the world is built on American standards so that we could lead the world. And so I I think uh creates the conditions for us to do that. I hope we're able to to um revert back to the policies of the Trump 45 administration and and um get back get back into the market and compete.

>> So that was the comment by Jensen. A lot of people interpreted that as China's coming back. Obviously he did not say China's coming back. He's saying hopefully the uh implications of the Trump and Xi deal will lead to China revenue or will will lead to China market share hopefully coming back for Nvidia because right now their market share is zero. And then 20 minutes ago you had this from Trump which is why I was surprised Nvidia is actually up in the overnight markets. But this is exactly what he said about Blackwell.

>> Nvidia smoke. What about it? >> So are you planning to meet with him? you said when you were >> I meet with look he's one of the great geniuses of our time his chips are 10 year years ahead of anybody else's and you know I meet with him all the time he's a great it's a great American company it's now the biggest company in the world uh so what would you like to know is a is really just a brilliant company the chips are 10 years the new blackwell that just came out it's 10 years ahead of every other chip But there's nothing to meet with other than say congratulations. >> But no, we don't give that chip to other people. >> We don't give that ship to other people. >> Are you meeting with the Syrian president at the White House? >> That last sentence, we don't give that chip to other people.

So, look, maybe Trump is just saying that because he wants to get a little bit more of a negotiation on what we get with China. Uh, but as you can see, he clearly said, "We don't give that chip to other people." which means the blackwell chip is likely not coming back in terms of revenue if this is the similar stance that Trump is going to have on Nvidia.

So even with the praise of Nvidia, even with Jensen bringing GTC to DC, even with Jensen obviously praising the Trump administration and saying that he believes in this whole American re-industrialization, if Trump is not ready to give the Blackwell chip to China, I would imagine China wants the chip and China has already said back in the summer they don't want anything less than Blackwell because if you give them something less than Blackwell, then they might as well just build their own chip, which creates the entire problem that Jensen's been talking about for American technology not being the foundation for overall AI technology around the world.

Now what actually happened with the trade relations? So this came out last night. This was published on the US.gov website and this is exactly what they said. The Chinese are going to suspend new rare earth export controls. They're going to issue general licenses for exports of rare earths. They're going to take significant measures to end the flow of fentinel to the US. They're going to suspend all retaliatory tariffs since March 4th. suspend all retaliatory non-tariff measures since March 4th and purchase at least 12 million metric tonses of US soybeans. The US is going to lower tariffs by 10% from uh 57 to 47, extend the expiration of section 301 tariff exclusions until November 2026 published by the White House yesterday.

So nothing in that says that China will officially get Blackwell, but I think it's giving the market a lot of ease now that there's not this massive trade war that might break out towards the end of the year. Obviously, the Chinese have to confirm this, but I think they already bought some soybeans as a sign of good faith. And, you know, given the negotiations that happened last week that we covered, it seems like everything is relatively okay and the export controls on rare earths that kind of really got everyone scared globally might not be happening and as a result, you know, that might be the good thing.

Now, a lot of people are saying, "What does China get from that deal?" I mean, it's a good point because outside of the tariff reduction, I don't really know what China is getting from that deal. I mean, they get access to the US consumer, which is very important, and their economy needs that because they've been in a recession over the past couple years.

>> Voted to lower interest rates another quarter of a point to its lowest level in three years. However, the central bank's newest official, Steven Myron, is is warning that if the Fed doesn't continue to lower interest rates rapidly, the US could face a recession. Do you agree that the US is at risk of facing a recession? Uh I I believe that we are in a transition period here as we are seeing the Trump administration has cut back on government spending. Jake what has gone unnoticed during the shutdown is the for the fiscal year that in September 30th the government spent less than it did the year before and because the GDP grew the GDP which had been 6.4 the deficit to GDP which had been 6.4 4 6.5% deficit, the highest when we weren't at war, weren't in a recession ever. We were able to bring it down to 5.9%. So, we are bringing down government spending. And I would think that the Fed would want to assist with that because if we go back and look, MIT just published a study that said 42% of the great inflation of 2022 came from excess government spending. So if we are contracting spending then I would think inflation would be dropping. If inflation is dropping then the Fed should be cutting rates. >> Also if the labor market is weak and people are losing jobs they're not spending as much which should also help to create a little bit more deflation which is another reason the Fed should be cutting rates. >> But do you think that the US is at risk of a recession if the Fed does not continue to drop rates? Uh I I think that we are in good shape, but I think that there are sectors of the economy that are in recession and you know the Fed has caused a lot of distributional problems the with their policies. I you know I wrote a 7,000word essay on that. You know we've seen the the biggest hindrance for housing here that are are mortgage rates. So, you know, if the Fed brings down mortgage rates, then they can end this housing recession. Low-income consumers who have gotten killed under President Biden, the these high rates are hurting them because they have debt, not assets. So, I think that there are sections of the economy that could go into recession. All right.

>> Okay. Now, why is that really important to understand? Well, I'm about to show something right here and uh for those that haven't seen this aggregated data, it's actually really really important to to take a look at. So, so take a look at this right here. These are the year-to-ate returns on some very important consumer stocks. Chipotle, we all saw last week what happened with their earnings. The CEO literally said people making less than 100,000 from ages 25 to 34 are not entering the store as much. Wendy's was down 44% this year. I didn't even know that was the case. Lululemon, that's been a train wreck, down 54%. Whirlpool down 35%, although they did have good earnings. Macy's down 27%. Caesars down 38%. Under Arour down 36. I mean, it's a little ugly when you look at these consumer stocks.

Here's another chart that shows even more. the Camples company, General Mills, Craft Hind, Colgate, uh, Proctor and Gamble. These have been the worst performing stocks of the entire year. So, there's two kind of nuanced points around this. Number one is has has have these companies been the best companies in the world. Probably not. I would imagine Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, etc. are executing a lot better than Proctor and Gamble and and Lululemon. So, that that's the first point. But second of all, the reason I think people are starting to wonder what's going on with the consumer is because these are consumer oriented companies and it's not just Chipotle. There's a lot of other fast food brands. I mean, Shake Shack, which is, you know, not really for the low end of the consumer, but uh their stock has been hit all year.

So, the question is what's going on in the economy? And we've been talking about this for a long time. As Gerald says right here, people are definitely hurting. And I don't think even if we are asset holders, we can ignore the fact that obviously people are hurting in this economy. Which is why Bent was asked this question. Wait a second. If we don't cut rates and you're seeing Chipotle take a 45% draw down this year, 20% in a week, like what's going on for the low end of the consumer that likely needs to get a little bit of relief on their personal loan payment to refinance it or their auto loan payment? Auto loan delinquencies have, you know, not been the best, especially subprime.

This leads into the conversation around the wealth effect. Here is a two to three minute clip from the compound and friends this weekend talking about this idea of the wealth effect because again that is why it looks like the economy is holding up.

>> I want to double click on that because like this is the hill that I like to die on every week. I'm a wealth effect truther. I think it's the number one most important factor in the economy, bar none. It decides employment. It decides whether or not people get wage increases. I think it decides capex spending projects. Nothing will halt AI capex in its tracks faster than a stock price that falls 30%. Nothing. And so, as a result, I really think we underpric the ability of the stock market to influence things that happen in the real economy. Um, more Americans than ever are in 401ks. I understand housing is a bigger asset for the middle class, blah blah blah. I get all that. The people that work for people though, those people, they care about their stock options in the companies they work for. I just I think it's a huge driver. To that point, Sean and I uh on my research team, we write this column for CNBC Pro every week, uh best stocks in the market, and we're always looking for charts that invalidate things that we believed or things other people believed. We love that more than anything. We did a spotlight on Ford and GM today. Ford and GM made 52 week highs this week. >> Yeah. What's the story there? The story there is the wealth effect is what sends people to the dealership to buy a new F-150. Not trade war [ __ ] These companies have handled this tariff war handled this this tariff situation so well, not because they're in control of the prices of of the supplies they buy, but because the demand never let up.

>> I I and I I think this is a really important point. Ford and GM have out or GM has at least outperformed Tesla this year. Ford's basically trading at a two-year high. Why? They're able to sell more cars. Why are they able to sell more cars? Because people have more money, not just because of their paychecks, but because they're holding on to assets. Even if it's just their 401k, they feel richer. That's the whole concept of the wealth effect.

And what's really important is another stat from the show that was that was just very intriguing to me. People in their early 30s or I think it's mid-30s, 35 years old, they their percentage of uh equities as a percentage of their net worth in this generation. So I guess millennials you can call it 23%. So if you are around 35 in that you know early 30s range, mid-30s range, 23% of your net worth on an aggregate is in equities. For the boomers when they were 35 years old, it was 7%. That is a massive difference, right? And so when you have a stock market with technology stocks that are leading the way, most people 35 and younger, right? Nvidia, Tesla, Amazon, the companies that they actually understand, the companies that they can see the technology in front of their face, those are the companies they're investing in, those are the companies that have gone up, those are the companies that have done well.

Take a look at this. The combined revenues of the big four US tech companies, Amazon, Google, Apple, and Microsoft, hit a record 1.8 trillion over the last 12 months. Amazon at 691 billion, Apple 416, Google 386, Microsoft 294. I'm working on a Substack piece coming out in the next week about how the big tech companies might be the easiest investments of our lifetime. And when you see charts like this and then when you see that most people have allocation to these companies, not Johnson and Johnson or Proctor and Gamble or Lululemon, but rather Amazon, Apple, Google, and Microsoft. Apple hit a new all-time high last week, which is just wild given that they're not growing that much, but still the multiple gets baked in because it's Apple at the end of the day. It's just incredible to see.

And so, as a result of that, uh, you know, when Bent says the Fed's probably got to keep cutting and when all of us start wondering, are we going to get this December cut? I mean, I think it was laughable and I genuinely think it was laughable last week that Bent or not Benta Powell started off the press conference by trying to stress that this December cut is not going to happen. Right now, the probability for a December cut, it's going to be December 10th is the meeting is 69.3%. That number was 90% before Powell uh went on stage and said, you know, don't expect a December cut is in the books. It's in the books. We know the labor market is weak. We know that the bottom end of the consumer is obviously struggling and they're going to need some type of relief aka rate cuts.

Let's get into some charts about November. So November tends to be pretty damn good. Take a look at this. Since 1927, the S&P 500, uh the S&P 500 has ended higher 59% of November. So 59% of the time you tend to get a higher November that is actually a much higher rate than October. During these years, the index averages an average of one or returned an average of 1%. The NASDAQ 100 has seen 2.4%. The Russell 2000 2.64. In year one of a US presidential cycle, which we are in right now, 25, November has also been strong with the S&P 500 going up about 67% of the time. Uh, or it's up 67% 67% of the time. I know the 67s, I get it. I'm going to see thousands of those in a second. But, uh, ironically, the S&P rise is 67% of the time. up 067% on average in November. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been up more than 15% year-to date. Heading into November, it's returned 2.7%. Right now, the S&P 500 is up 18%. So, historically, we could get a two and two two and a half% month going into November, which would put us well over 7,000.

All right, Palinger, let's talk about it. Let's talk about it. First of all, who's excited? Who's excited? We'll talk about Grab after, but Palanteer is tomorrow. I think this is officially the 18th quarter I'll be covering publicly on the channel. It's kind of crazy, dude. Um, but I am pretty excited for it.

Now, the reason I am excited for it is because I looked at the numbers over the weekend. Again, if you haven't watched Paler Weekly, make sure to check that out. We went pretty deep onto the numbers and, you know, tried to give as much of an explanation as we can for what we think is going to happen. Seeking Alpha that I'm pulling up right here has the earnings estimates and the estimates from Wall Street is 1.09. 9 billion. Pounder basically guided for 1.09 billion. So, uh, the analysts aren't really raising the estimate from the company. They're basically betting that the company is going to come in line with guidance. And they've done this for basically the past 10 quarters. And what has Palanteer done? They've uh beat and raised to such a degree that the analysts completely got it wrong.

Now, what's going to happen to the stock? I have no idea because the stock already made a run. I mean, I really for the past couple weeks, the reason I've been buying pounder around that 170 to 185 range is like, hey, I think when the street sees 50% growth, uh, they're going to be excited and the stock probably makes a move higher. That has already happened. So, the anticipation of the move has already taken place. The question now becomes how good is the quarter going to be to get the move to be even better than what we see right here. And if pounder drops to 185 tomorrow, like I can't be that upset about it.

I think they're going to come in to 1.2 billion. I think they're going to beat by 100 million. And I think if they beat by a hundred million and we get 1.2 billion and we get closer to 25 cents versus 17 cents, again, I I just like if they grow anywhere near 55 to 57% right now, they're got to get 50%. So they would have to have a little bit of a 7 to 8% beep. I mean, dude, like I Wall Street, I think once again, will say, "Wait a second. This is the only company that's growing as fast as they're growing. This is the only company that's actually implementing AI to make it useful."

If OpenAI wants a trillion dollar valuation, I mean, I know their metrics are better from a growth perspective than from a total dollar revenue perspective, but from an impact perspective, one could say that Pounder is having more of an impact. And Pounder only has 900 customers in terms of customer count. We talked about this a lot on the weekly. This might be the first quarter where they add 100 customers. They've never added a triple digit number of customers. I think last quarter they added 77. If they add uh 100 and they have more deals of at least a million that was added. I think last quarter they have like 150. If that gets closer to like 175 and they have that topline revenue growth of 55 to 57%. I think the stock can go higher and I think the street will really like it.

All right, Grabby Grab. We'll end off the show with Grabby Grab. Um, I'm excited for Grab tomorrow. I posted on my Substack, the deep dive. I disclosed on that Substack. I now have over 40,000 shares. So, your boy's walking in with a pretty heavy bag for uh for this earnings.

Look, dude. The thing about Grab, and I've been thinking about this all weekend. I've been thinking about this all weekend. I don't know what's going to happen to the stock. I really don't. My gut, like like like like my gut is telling me they're going to have a great quarter. They're going to beat and raise. Ebida guidance is going to get closer to 500 million and the stock's going to go much higher than where it is today. I'm thinking around that 680 690 range. Maybe it crosses seven. seven might be psychological, but I think we get above 650,

but that's what my gut tells me. What my mind tells me is that the earnings come out at 7:30. None of the brokerages care about Grab. There's not a massive retail community. You have 7:30 to 8:00 p.m. in the overnight markets or in the after hours markets that are highly illquid for any massive move to happen up or down. Uh, and then it's a it's an international stock that's reporting earnings at 8 am Singapore time. So, like there might not be enough people in the United States that even know that the earnings is happening tomorrow. And so, I kind of think that the stock's going to be flat or it's going to be red because there's just not a lot of volume that's going to be coming in because you're going to have 30 minutes to make a move on the stock because the earnings come out at 7:30 and overnight markets close at or overnight markets open at 800 p.m., but after hours close at 8 p.m. and grabbers and trade in the overnight markets.

So I I think the earnings would have to be so substantial to get the stock to really make the move above $7, which I like I look based on the numbers. If you look at that substack, I went through even more numbers over the weekend. I I really do think that move is possible. But then again, I could be wrong. And if it doesn't happen tomorrow, then it doesn't really change my thesis. It's just a question of, you know, the public perception of what's going to happen in the context of graph.

But again, I've gone through the numbers over and over again. I believe it's undervalued. I've looked at multiple DCFs. I think fair value is closer to 910 bucks. I've looked at the institutional volume. This thing is owned by 84% of the institutions. It does not make sense to me for why the institutions have been buying as much uh and for the stock to stay depressed.

With Grab, you have a company with 7 billion in cash growing 23% reacelerating their revenues, adjusted EBA hitting all-time highs, free cash flow, gap profitable, you know, the company's embracing media for the first time in five years. All these things coming together to me, if the stock doesn't move tomorrow and the earnings are just in line with expectations and probably beating and raising like they have for the past couple quarters, I'm not going to complain about it and I I'll take all the shots that people want to take about the stock not moving. That's fine. But I'm not going to sit here and question my thesis unless there is a reason to question it. And so far, Grab hasn't given me a reason. But we're going to see on the earnings and uh if that reason can continue.

All right, guys. That's what we got. That's what we got. Thank you everybody for being here. Hopefully, everyone had a good Sunday. We are getting into the last two months of the year, which is kind of crazy. Any expectations for Tesla November 6. I think the shareholders will vote with Elon. And I do not think Elon's going to miss out on this trillion dollar compensation package. And it's going to be very exciting to watch Elon go to work over the next 10 years and try to take Tesla literally to the moon and become one of the most valuable companies on the planet. But I think he'll get an overwhelming amount of the votes. I'm not too worried about what should be happening with uh with Tessie. All right, guys. That's it. Thank everybody. I'll be back tomorrow morning. Market open. Big day tomorrow. We got Palenteer. We got Grab. Got a lot of earnings this week. We're going to see how this ends up playing out.

Again, the two deep dives on Grab and Nebus are out. BMR and Dolingo are also on the substack. If you have not read those, I'm really liking the writing. I'm really liking it. Took me a lot of time. I think the next two deep dives are going to be Reddit and Iran. So, I'm spending the next two weeks on those and hopefully those are out November 15th.

All right. Thank everybody. Appreciate it. Love you all. I'll be back on the market open and we got an exciting week. November is officially starting. I got the almond cissant. It's going to be a great month. Almond croissant. And I will see you guys tomorrow morning. Love you all. Thank you everybody. See you guys tomorrow for the market open. Bye everyone. Have a good one.