告别维和神话
杰扬·杰加纳森: 今年夏天,政府悄然发布了一份新闻稿,宣布加拿大武装部队(Canadian Armed Forces)将重新平衡其行动布局,以“强化全球足迹”。但在这种官僚话术的背后,实则是加拿大军事优先事项的重大转变——因为这意味着加拿大将结束在包括科索沃和南苏丹在内的国家的维和行动。这一决定引发了一些严重的关切。例如,前联合国大使鲍勃·雷(Bob Rae)称这是“对关乎我们国际信誉的国家使命的关键放弃”。
但并非所有人都认为维和行动对于我们的国家认同至关重要,或者应该成为加拿大的首要军事优先事项之一。其中一位持此观点的人就是退役将军韦恩·埃尔(Wayne Eyre)。他今天加入我们的节目,探讨他的新回忆录、加拿大应该将重点放在哪里,以及为什么他认为加拿大作为“维和国家”的观念完全是一个需要被彻底丢弃在过去的神话。
与此同时,马克·卡尼(Mark Carney)一直在推动另一个旨在加强加拿大在世界舞台上作用的构想,即所谓的防务、安全与韧性银行(Defence, Security and Resilience Bank)。
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: This summer, the government quietly issued a press release announcing the Canadian Armed Forces was going to rebalance operations to, quote, strengthen global footprint. But behind that bureaucratic language was a significant shift in Canada's military priorities, because what that means is that Canada will be wrapping up peacekeeping operations in countries including Kosovo and South Sudan. And that decision raised some serious concerns. Former UN ambassador Bob Rae, for one, called it a, quote, crucial abandonment of a defining national mission for our international credibility. But not everyone sees peacekeeping as crucial to our national identity or as something that should be one of Canada's top military priorities. One of those people is retired General Wayne Eyre. He joins us to talk about his new memoir, where Canada should be focusing its efforts and why he says the idea of Canada as a nation of peacekeepers is a myth. We need to put firmly in the past. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mark Carney has been pushing another idea aimed at strengthening Canada's role on the world stage, something called the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank.
马克·卡尼: 所以这一切都是好消息。这是保护加拿大的好消息,也是促进合作的好消息。
英文原文
Mark Carney: So all of this is good news. It's good news to protect Canada. It's good news for cooperation.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 那么这家防务银行会提升我们在世界舞台上的地位吗?它究竟是什么,又将如何运作?我们正在审视加拿大的国防方针正在发生怎样的变化,以及这可能对我们在世界上的地位意味着什么。我是杰扬·杰加纳森,欢迎收看《The Rundown》。
当韦恩·埃尔将军在经历了40年的军旅生涯后于2024年退役时,他一直担任加拿大国防参谋长,并亲身体验了我们的军队和政治是如何运作的。韦恩·埃尔将军,很高兴见到您,非常荣幸您能来到节目中。您最近怎么样?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: So will this defence Bank increase our standing on the world stage? And what exactly is it and how will it work? We're looking at how Canada's approach to defence is changing, and what that could mean for our place in the world. I'm Jeyan Jeganathan welcome to The Rundown. When General Wayne Eyre retired in 2024 after four decades of military service, he'd been serving as Canada's chief of the defence staff and getting firsthand experience of how our military and our politics operate. General Wayne Eyre, great to meet you. Great to have you on the rundown. How are you doing?
韦恩·埃尔: 非常好。非常感谢你能邀请我参加你的节目。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Excellent. Thank you so much for having me on your show.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 当然。首先祝贺你的新书出版。我想从最开始聊起。你在回忆录中写道,尽管你来自萨斯喀彻温省的一个农民家庭,但你从一开始就对军事着迷。这是怎么回事?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Of course. Well, congratulations on the book. I want to start from the very beginning. You write in your memoir, Into the A Soldier's Journey, that despite coming from a family of Saskatchewan farmers, you always were fascinated by the military right from the get go. How come?
韦恩·埃尔: 我从小就被它吸引,无论是在农场上拿着锯短的曲棍球棒和我的兄弟堂兄弟们一起巡逻,还是对所有军事相关的事物产生极度浓厚的兴趣。在12岁时加入陆军少年军团(Army Cadets),后来在13岁时成为少年军官训练团的一员。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: I was drawn to it at an early age, whether it was patrolling with my brothers and cousins, with sawed off hockey sticks on the farm, or being super interested in in all things military. Joining Army cadets at age 12, going on later to be part of the army cadet.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 那甚至是在高中毕业前几天对吧?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: And that was a couple of days even before graduation. Correct?
韦恩·埃尔: 没错,高中毕业三天后我就进入了新兵基础训练营。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Well, I was in basic training three days after graduation from high school.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 所以你一直清楚这就是你想做的事?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: So you always knew this was what you wanted to do?
韦恩·埃尔: 是的,是的。这确实是一种真正的天职和召唤。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Yes. Yes. It truly was a calling.
四十载戎马生涯
杰扬·杰加纳森: 让我们把时间向前推移。在经历了将近40年的军旅生涯后,你于2024年从加拿大武装部队退役,当时担任的是国防参谋长(Chief of the Defence Staff)。你在书中将其描述为一段旅程,一段充满高峰和低谷的军旅生涯。你认为这其中有哪些真正的高光时刻?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Let's fast forward. You retired from the Canadian Armed Forces in 2024 as chief of the Defence Staff, after a military career spanning almost 40 years. You describe it in your book as a journey, a military career with both highs and lows. What do you consider some of the real high points?
韦恩·埃尔: 嗯,高光时刻有很多。例如1993年的梅达克口袋战役(Battle of the Medak Pocket)。尽管我们被死亡和毁灭所包围,但看到我指挥的排凝聚在一起,看到那些来自各行各业的年轻加拿大人团结协作,出色地完成了他们的工作,那一刻让我无比欣慰。在阿富汗指挥步兵营也是如此。当然,在服役生涯的尾声被授予全将军衔并担任国防参谋长,能够领导这支由奉献卓越的加拿大人组成的部队,绝对是莫大的荣幸。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Well, there was a number of high points in the battle of the Medak pocket. For example, 1990, 1993. Even though we were surrounded by death and destruction, seeing the platoon I was commanding come together and seeing these young Canadians from all different walks of life gel together and do what they had to do was was gratifying. Commanding an infantry battalion in Afghanistan, the same. And then of course, being promoted to the rank of full general and Chief of the Defence staff at the end of the journey was an absolute privilege to lead these dedicated Canadians.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 我能想象,在长达40年的职业生涯中,也必然会有艰难的时刻。我知道你谈到了在后期任职期间甚至考虑过辞职的瞬间。对你来说,最低谷的时刻是什么?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: I imagine throughout a 40 year career, there are also moments that are going to be tough. I know you talk about sort of there moments of thinking about resigning sort of later in your post as well. What was the lowest point for you?
韦恩·埃尔: 最低谷的时期大概是2007年5月25日到7月4日之间。在那期间,我指挥的帕特里夏公主加拿大轻步兵团第三营(3rd Battalion, Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry)阵亡了10名士兵。在不到六周的时间里失去10名优秀的年轻人,每一次把阵亡将士送上回国运输机时的那种切肤之痛,以及参加他们的告别仪式和葬礼,那种心理创伤永远刻在了我的心里。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Probably the lowest point was a period between May 25th, 2007 and July 4th. Two, 2007, during which we lost ten soldiers that were under my command from third Battalion, Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry. Losing ten fine young people in less than six weeks, and the pain of sending each of them on their final ramp ceremony, going home and going to their ramp ceremonies and attending their funerals, that leaves a lasting scar.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 我必须问一下,军旅生涯中既有一线战斗的经历,也有一段时期你身处军界与政界交汇的枢纽位置。在这个职位上,你发现自己在公开呼吁大幅增加资金,指出在动荡的世界中我们的军队规模过小、装备不足。在那样的高位上面临资金短缺和各方政治博弈,你承受了多大的压力?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: I have to ask, you know, there's the career on the front lines. There are a career where you are, you know, at the pinnacle of that, which is navigating the military and politics. And in that position, you find yourself publicly calling for more funding, talking about, you know, we're an understaffed, underfunded military in an increasingly chaotic world. How much pressure were you under in that role?
韦恩·埃尔: 没有人参军时会预料到自己将来会成为军方与政界之间的沟通接口。在政治与军事的交界面上,摩擦往往非常剧烈。军人往往有着非常鲜明的黑白分明的世界观,而政治生活则充满了灰色地带、妥协以及相互竞争的国家优先事项。因此,在这两者之间建立相互尊重、建立信任至关重要。
我们必须非常清楚自己的宪政角色是什么:军方受文官政府领导并向其提供最佳军事建议,而最终的决策权在民选文官政府手中。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Well, nobody joins the military thinking that they're going to be the interface of the military and the political. And at that interface between politics and the military, there is friction. And military people tend to have a black and white view of the world, whereas political life is full of shades of grey, it's full of compromise, and it's full of competing priorities for the nation. And so navigating that to build mutual respect, to build trust, is so important. And being very, very clear in what our constitutional role is, that being subordinate to civilian authority, giving civilian authority the best military advice, but civilian authority has the ultimate say.
破除维和幻觉
杰扬·杰加纳森: 我想聊聊舆论反响。你在书中公开反驳了“加拿大仍然是一个维和国家”这一观念,称其为神话。你为什么会得出这样的结论?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: I want to talk about pushback. In your book, you push back on the notion that Canada is still a nation of peacekeepers, calling it a myth. Why do you say that?
韦恩·埃尔: 认为我们是一个维和国家的神话或信念,在冷战期间占据了主导地位。但在冷战期间,我们实际上在欧洲驻扎了一支机械化旅和一个战斗机联队,时刻准备与华沙条约组织进行第三次世界大战。
冷战结束时,我们开始在全球范围内开展行动——从前南斯拉夫到索马里、海地,再到后来的阿富汗。在这些地方,维和演变成了强制和平(peace enforcement),甚至演变成了激烈的常规交火和高强度作战。
如今的世界正回归大国竞争时代,在需要硬实力的地缘对抗面前,维和这种形式在许多冲突场景中已经不再适用。然而,这种神话却极大地损害了我们对自身国防需求的认知,并使我们忽视了必须拥有的硬核战备能力。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Well, the the myth or the the belief that we are a nation of peacekeepers came to the fore during the Cold War. But during the Cold War, we were forward based in Europe with a brigade group, with a fighter wing, ready for World War Three with the Warsaw Pact. At the end of the Cold War, we deployed on on operations around the world in former Yugoslavia, Somalia, Haiti, later Afghanistan. And those morphed from peacekeeping into peace enforcement into actual combat. And in today's world of the return of great power competition, peacekeeping is not viable in in many of the situations that are out there. And it has so it has done a disservice to the requirements we have for national defence and what we need for hard combat power.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 既然如此,我们现在的国防角色究竟应该是什么?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Then with that being said, what is our role now?
韦恩·埃尔: 首先也是最重要的,军队的核心职责是保卫国家,这是最根本的使命。随后是保卫北美大陆——我们通过北美防空司令部(NORAD)与美国合作承担这一任务。第三则是投送力量以维护基于规则的国际秩序、保卫全球公域,并为我们的盟友提供集体防御,因为集体防御也是我们自身安全的重要组成部分。
这三大使命构成了我们军事力量的核心支柱,而在当前的世界形势下,保卫本土、保卫北美大陆以及贡献于集体防御盟友,比以往任何时候都更加紧迫。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: So first and foremost, the role of the military is to defend the state. That's that is the ultimate role. Second is to defend North America, which we do with the United States through NORAD. And the third is to deploy to defend the rules based international order, to defend the global commons and to defend our allies in collective defence, because collective defence is part of our defence as well. And so those three pillars form the core of what our military should be doing. And in today's world, that requirement to defend at home, defend in North America, and defend our allies is more important than ever.
地缘政治震荡与国防预算达标
杰扬·杰加纳森: 现在的世界似乎充斥着混乱。正如你刚才所描述的。请帮我理解一下,这种混乱与威胁是如何直接波及加拿大的?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: The world seems to be in so much chaos right now. As you sort of explained here. Help me understand how does that chaos hit close to home?
韦恩·埃尔: 我们在全球安全环境中正面临前所未有的不确定性,原因在于大国竞争的回归,以及我们看到诸如中俄等国家正在形成准联盟关系,试图改写现行的国际秩序规则。
而作为一个中等国家,一个高度依赖基于规则的国际秩序、依赖全球稳定贸易的贸易大国,加拿大极其脆弱。我们在经济繁荣、自由航行和安全保障上完全依赖于这种国际秩序。当规则被破坏、当强权即公理成为法则时,我们根本无法独善其身,国内的繁荣和主权必将受到剧烈震荡。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: So we are facing an unprecedented level of uncertainty in the global security environment because of the return of great power competition and the alignment of actors such as China and Russia, who are working together to reshape the international order to suit their own interests. And Canada, as a trading nation, as a middle power that has benefited immensely from the rules based international order, is vulnerable. Our prosperity, our way of life depends on stability and security around the world. And when that stability is threatened, our prosperity and our security at home is directly threatened as well.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 话虽如此,我知道这个问题你已经被问过很多次了,但随着唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)可能重返白宫,你如何看待这种地缘政治格局的发展?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: With that being said, I know this is a question that you have been asked a few times, but how do you see that playing out, with Donald Trump potentially heading into the White House?
韦恩·埃尔: 这是一个非常棘手的问题。我在书中也记录了与特朗普总统会面的经历。无论美国由哪位总统执政,美国对盟友分担防务责任的要求都是长期且一致的。
美国越来越没有耐心独自承担整个西方世界的安全重负。他们期望盟友能够站出来,在防务投入上承担起应有的份额。无论谁入主白宫,这种压力都不会消失,反而会更加严厉,特别是对加拿大这样一个长期国防投入不足的国家而言。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Well, that's that's a very tricky question as well. You know, I write in the book about meeting him in the White House. And the reality is that regardless of who is in the White House, the United States is increasingly focused on burden sharing. They are tired of carrying the global security burden on their own, and they expect allies to step up. And so whether it's President Trump or another administration, the pressure on Canada to invest in its own defence and to meet its commitments is going to continue to grow.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 历经漫长的岁月,加拿大终于承诺将达到北约设定的占GDP **2%**的防务支出基准。对于加拿大来说,达到这个目标有多关键?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: For the first time in a very long time, Canada hit the GDP 2% benchmark that is set up by NATO spending. How critical is that for Canada?
韦恩·埃尔: 如果纵观人类历史的长河,当人类社区聚集在一起时,首要任务就是确保自身的安全与防御。安全是繁荣与文明发展的基石,没有安全,其他一切都无从谈起。
2%并不是一个随意的数字,它是一个向盟友证明我们具备防御信誉的硬性政治与战略指标。在北约联盟中,如果你不拿出真金白银投资于硬军事能力,你在谈判桌上就会失去发言权,失去信誉。达到2%只是最起码的门槛,而不是终点线。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Well, we're going to take a look at the long arc of human history. And when human communities came together, the first order of business was security and defence. Because without security and defence, you cannot have economic prosperity, you cannot have social development, you cannot have the rule of law. And so the 2% commitment is is not just an arbitrary number; it is a signal of commitment to our allies. It is the ticket of admission to having a voice at the table. And if we want our allies to take us seriously, if we want to be part of the decision making that affects our security, we have to meet that minimum threshold.
防务外交与安全素养
杰扬·杰加纳森: 盟友关系呢?寻找新盟友?当我们谈论贸易与多元化时,加拿大在防务领域是否有新的结盟途径?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: How about allies? New allies? As we look at, we talk about trade and diversifying. Are there new avenues for Canada when it comes to allies?
韦恩·埃尔: 这完全属于对冲战略(hedging strategy)的一部分。我们需要在巩固传统联盟的同时拓宽合作边界,我相信政府正在朝这个方向努力。
我们需要与印太地区的伙伴建立更深层次的防务合作关系,比如日本、韩国、澳大利亚,同时也需要与欧洲的非传统伙伴深化协同。在一个多极化和动荡的世界里,单一依赖任何一段关系都是危险的,建立多层次的安全伙伴网络是保护国家利益的必然选择。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Well, this is all part of a hedging strategy. And we need to do, and I believe the government is doing that, is reaching out to new partners, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and broadening our relationships. But at the same time, we cannot lose sight of the fact that our core alliances—NATO and NORAD—remain the foundation of our security. So while we look for new partnerships and diversify our diplomatic and defence engagements, we must double down on those core alliances that guarantee our survival.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 你曾多次指出加拿大公众普遍缺乏安全和国防素养。你能为我们展开谈谈这点吗?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: You have flagged the widespread lack of security and defence literacy among the Canadian public. Can you expand on that for us?
韦恩·埃尔: 这与我之前谈到的失去社会认可(social licence)是相辅相成的。我们需要公众明白,为什么国家需要军队,为什么要在和平时期向国防投入巨资。
几十年来,加拿大享受着地处三大洋与强大友好邻国庇护的“地理红利”,这种地理上的安全感滋生了一种自满情绪,让许多人误以为和平是理所当然的免费品,甚至认为军费支出是一种浪费。但地缘屏障在当今的超高音速武器、网络攻击、太空战以及极地航道开通面前正在失效。我们需要民众理解安全所面临的真实风险。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Well, this goes hand in hand with my earlier comment about losing social licence, and we need our population to understand why defence is necessary. We have lived in a geostrategically blessed country, protected by three oceans and a powerful neighbour to the south. And that has bred a sense of complacency, where many Canadians believe that security is free and that we don't need to invest in our military. But geography no longer protects us the way it once did, whether it's through cyber threats, space-based capabilities, or hypersonic missiles. And so having a population that understands the realities of the threat environment and supports the necessary investments is vital.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 如果你能向联邦政府进言,你最希望政府优先处理的一件事是什么?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: If you had the ear of Prime Minister Mark Carney's government, what's one thing you would like him to prioritize?
韦恩·埃尔: 我们需要采购的物资清单非常长。但我认为当务之急是人员招募与保留(personnel recruitment and retention)。装备固然重要,但没有训练有素、具备高昂士气且规模充足的人员,所有的战舰、飞机和坦克都只是一堆废铁。
我们必须修复招募系统,让服役对年轻一代加拿大人具有吸引力,并改善军队家庭的生活保障条件。人员才是军队最核心的资产。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Well, there's a very long list of stuff that we need. And I think, you know, I believe they're on the right track with the recent defence policy update. But if there's one thing that is foundational, it is our people—recruitment and retention. You can have the most advanced ships, fighter jets, and weapon systems in the world, but without dedicated, well-trained, and well-led people to operate them, they are completely useless. We have a severe personnel shortage, and solving that recruitment crisis and taking care of our soldiers, sailors, and aviators must be priority number one.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 埃尔将军,非常感谢您能亲临我们的演播室。埃尔将军是加拿大前国防参谋长,非常感谢您的参与。
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: General Eyre, I want to thank you so much for dropping by our studio. General Eyre is Canada's former chief of the Defence Staff. Thank you so much for joining us.
韦恩·埃尔: 谢谢你的邀请。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Well, thanks for having me.
防务、安全与韧性银行的诞生
杰扬·杰加纳森: 据加拿大财政部称,新的防务、安全与韧性银行将帮助成员国“迅速且富有韧性地应对当今的国防挑战”。那么它的职权范围是什么?如果并非所有国家都愿意加入会发生什么?安·菲茨-杰拉德(Ann Fitz-Gerald),你是加拿大国际事务领域的顶尖专家之一,非常高兴你能来到《The Rundown》。你最近怎么样?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: According to Canada's Department of Finance, the new Defence, Security and Resilience Bank will help member nations, quote, meet today's defence challenges with speed and resilience. So what's its purview and what happens if not everyone wants to join? Ann Fitz-Gerald you are one of Canada's leading experts in international affairs. Great to have you here in "The Rundown". How are you doing?
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 很高兴来到这里,我很好,谢谢。
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: Wonderful to be here. I'm doing fine, thanks.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 加拿大正在牵头筹建一家全新的全球防务银行,即防务、安全与韧性银行。请帮我们理解一下,这究竟是一家什么样的机构?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Canada is spearheading a new global defence bank, the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank. Help us understand. What exactly is that?
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 嗯,它是一家国际金融机构(multilateral financial institution),其定位是成为一家大型国际开发银行,但专门聚焦于防务、安全和韧性基础设施建设。
其运作模式类似于世界银行(World Bank)或欧洲复兴开发银行(EBRD),但其核心使命是解决长期以来困扰国防部门的资金瓶颈问题。它旨在汇集政府主权资本与私营金融资本,为高风险、长周期的国防工业项目、战略供应链建设以及尖端安全技术研发提供低成本、长期的专项融资支持。
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: Well, it's an international financial institution and certainly it aspires to be a large international financial institution dedicated to defence, security, and resilience. Think of it like a World Bank or European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, but focused specifically on the defence sector. It is designed to pool capital from member governments and leverage private sector investment to finance major defence procurement, technological innovation, industrial base expansion, and critical resilience infrastructure that traditional commercial banks are often hesitant to fund.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 好的。现在讨论的热点之一是关于该机构总部的选址。我们知道有几个城市正在竞争,包括渥太华、多伦多,甚至欧洲的某些城市。
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Okay. One of the conversations that's happening right now is that we know that the headquarters of this bank is being discussed.
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 官方尚未做出最终决定。所有正在考虑的选项各有优势。多伦多作为主要金融中心,拥有无与伦比的资本市场和深厚的金融人才储备;而渥太华则更靠近政府决策层和军方中枢;欧洲城市则靠近北约各盟国的心脏地带。
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: Well, that decision hasn't been made yet. All choices under consideration are good ones for different reasons. Toronto offers a world-class financial ecosystem with deep capital markets and expertise in risk assessment and syndication. Ottawa brings you close to the policy makers, the Department of National Defence, and the diplomatic corps. And a European location puts you right at the doorstep of NATO allies facing the front line of security threats.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 多伦多确实很有吸引力。目前为止,这家银行已经得到了阿尔巴尼亚、比利时等八个国家的支持。但我们发现G7主要大国似乎还在观望。
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Toronto. All right. So far, this bank has been backed by eight other countries—Albania, Belgium, and others. But some of the bigger G7 allies seem to be on the fence.
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 我认为在部分G7大国中,明确的政治决策尚未最终拍板。大国通常拥有自己成熟的国内国防融资体系和主权军工巨头,比如美国的国防采购体系非常依赖其自身的国防预算和国内资本市场。
因此,像美国或英国这样的大国在审视这一多边机构时,会评估其治理架构、表决权分配以及是否会与他们现有的多边合作产生职能冲突。但八个创始成员国的加入已经为该机构提供了坚实的启动基石。
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: I don't think a definitive political decision has been made yet in some of these G7 countries. The larger countries often have their own deeply entrenched defence financing mechanisms, extensive domestic procurement budgets, and major defence contractors. For a country like the United States, they have vast capital markets and existing mechanisms, so they will scrutinize the governance structure, voting rights, and how it aligns with their own strategic objectives before jumping in. But having eight diverse founding nations already committed gives it credible initial momentum.
多边机制与小国诉求
杰扬·杰加纳森: 让我们谈谈名单上的一些小国,比如拉脱维亚、卢森堡。它们在这样的银行中能获得怎样的发言权?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Well, let's talk about some of the smaller countries we've got on that list. Latvia, Luxembourg. Will they have a real voice?
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 通常在这类多边金融机构中,都会设立明确的投票权(voting rights)结构。投票权往往与各成员国认缴的资本金份额挂钩,但同时也会设有理事会等治理机制,确保小国不会被完全边缘化。
对于像拉脱维亚这样处于东欧防御前线的波罗的海国家来说,加入该银行能够以极具竞争力的融资利率获取装备升级和弹药储备资金,这是它们仅凭本国有限财政预算难以独立完成的。而对于卢森堡这样的金融枢纽来说,则可以发挥其资本运作和资金托管的独特优势。
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: Usually with these multilateral financial institutions, there are voting rights. The voting rights are typically tied to capital contributions, but there are also governance safeguards and board representation that ensure all member states have a stake. For smaller nations on NATO's eastern flank, like Latvia, this bank offers access to affordable capital and scale for procurement that they could never achieve alone. And for a country like Luxembourg, with its sophisticated financial services sector, it's about providing financial acumen and supporting alliance-wide resilience.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 谈到那些尚未正式加入的大国,未来这扇大门依然对它们敞开吗?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: To talk about some of the bigger countries. Potentially that door is still open.
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 并非所有北约或G7成员都会立刻参与到这类多边金融机构中。世界银行或国际货币基金组织也是在发展中不断扩充成员的。
防务银行采用的是开放型架构,随着银行正式启动、发行第一批防务债券并落地首批成功贷款项目,那些目前处于观望状态的大国看到其实际成效和投资回报率后,完全可以在后续融资轮次中以股东或战略伙伴身份加入。
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: Well, not all members are involved in every multilateral financial institution from day one. You look at historical precedents like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank or the European Investment Bank; membership often expands over time. The Defence Bank is designed with open architecture. Once the bank is operational, establishes its credit rating, issues its first bonds, and demonstrates that it can de-risk major defence projects, other major allies can easily enter as subsequent tranches of capital are subscribed.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 聊聊局限性吧。这家新银行在运营中必须应对哪些局限性和潜在障碍?比如它是否会与北约现有的创新基金发生职能重叠?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Let's talk limitations. What are some of the limitations this new bank will have to navigate? For example, is there overlap with NATO initiatives?
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 确实存在一定的重叠可能性,这必须受到严密的监控和制度协调。
北约创新基金(NATO Innovation Fund)规模相对较小,主要扮演风险投资角色,聚焦于初创期的颠覆性军民两用科技。而防务银行的雄心要大得多,它的目标是数以百亿计的规模化基础设施、大型武器系统协同采购以及产能扩建项目。
此外,该银行必须克服的关键阻碍还包括:如何解决商业银行由于ESG(环境、社会与治理)投资准则而对防务产业施加的融资限制,以及如何建立健全的多边出口管制和知识产权分配框架。
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: There will be some potential for overlap, and that will have to be policed and monitored carefully. NATO already has its Innovation Fund, but that is essentially a venture capital vehicle focused on early-stage, dual-use deep tech. This proposed Defence Bank is designed to be an order of magnitude larger—focusing on heavy industrial capacity, multi-nation joint procurement, supply chain resilience, and critical infrastructure. The biggest hurdles it will face include regulatory compliance, navigating ESG restrictions that have historically deterred private capital from defence, and managing cross-border intellectual property rights and export controls.
加拿大的产业红利与双重用途战略
杰扬·杰加纳森: 让我们探讨一下加拿大的重大利益所在。多年来加拿大因国防开支长期落后而饱受盟友批评。主导这样一家银行能帮加拿大扳回一城吗?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Let's talk about what's at stake for Canada here. There has been a fair bit of criticism over the years about Canada not pulling its weight. Does this help change that narrative?
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 我认为加拿大有巨大的潜力借此重新崛起。事实上加拿大已经在展现这种势头。过去外界普遍认为加拿大在防务上搭便车,而主导发起防务银行是一个极具建设性的创举,它表明加拿大不仅愿意提升本国开支,更有能力在制度设计层面为整个西方联盟提供金融与战略解决方案。
更重要的是,这不仅仅关乎国际声誉,更关乎切实的国内经济转型。
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: I think there's potential for Canada to rise up, and it has been rising up. The narrative that Canada is a laggard has been painful. Spearheading this bank allows Canada to lead in an area where we have undisputed global credibility: institution-building, financial regulation, and multilateral diplomacy. It demonstrates to our NATO allies that we are committed to innovative ways of solving the collective security financing problem. But beyond reputation, it is a tremendous opportunity to anchor defence-related economic value, investment, and high-tech manufacturing right here at home.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 正如你所言,加拿大长期以来面临着严重的人才外流(brain drain)问题,无论在哪个高科技领域都是如此。
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: I was going to say, that has been a problem here in Canada with a lot of brain drain, wherever you look.
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 我们如何扭转这一局面?我们必须审视自己的战略性支柱产业,问自己:我们究竟要在本土制造什么既符合自身主权安全需求、又能赢得国际出口市场的产品?
如果我们能够将防务银行的资金引导到本国的先导科研和先进制造链条中,为本土的工程师、科学家和创业公司提供充沛的长期订单与资本支持,人才和企业就不会流失到硅谷或海外。
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: How do we do it? Well, we look at our strategic sectors and we say, what are we going to produce that is world class, that serves our own defence needs, and that our allies desperately want to buy? If we can couple this financing engine with a coherent domestic industrial strategy, we create high-value intellectual property, build domestic production lines, and retain top engineering and technical talent in Canada instead of watching them migrate south.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 简要地问一下,加拿大目前是否已经在某些细分领域处于全球领先地位,能够完美契合这一防务生态?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Very quickly, is there something that Canada is already doing and leading that could perfectly plug into this?
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 毫无疑问,我们在人工智能(AI)领域成果斐然,培养了全球顶尖的AI先驱科学家,拥有全球知名的科研机构。此外,我们在量子计算(quantum computing)、卫星通信雷达、以及极地与恶劣环境传感器技术方面均处于世界前沿。
这些技术绝大多数都属于高价值的军民双用途技术(dual-use technologies),既能赋能民用经济,又是现代智能化战争的核心支撑。
英文原文
Wayne Eyre: Yeah. I mean, we're doing a lot of good work in AI. We've produced some of the leading AI scientists in the world. We are leaders in quantum technologies, advanced optics, simulation training, and space-based radar sensors. The crucial point is that these are dual-use technologies. The capability that empowers autonomous civilian systems or cybersecurity in banking is the exact same capability that provides situational awareness on the battlefield.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 如果你身处防务界,这听起来确实令人振奋。但我必须指出,公众中可能会有一些怀疑声音——纳税人可能会担忧:为什么要把公共资金投入到军工银行业中,这是否意味着公共财政要替私营军工企业的风险买单?
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: If you are in the defence space, this sounds very exciting, but I do have to ask: there might be some skepticism from the public about taxpayer exposure and why public money should be de-risking private defence companies.
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 关于这一点,我想强调两点。第一,赋能国防工业的核心能力往往直接源于民用技术和基础科研。对这些底层技术的投资,最终会通过先进医疗、绿色交通、网络安全等形式反哺整个民生经济。
第二,关于金融风险分担机制,防务银行并非要承担全部资金风险,而是采用混合融资与风险对冲架构(blended finance)。例如在典型的联合贷款中,防务银行作为政策性担保方承担次级风险,撬动商业银行和私人资本承担80%的资金份额,自身仅承担20%的第一损失风险。
在当前中等强国面临的巨额国防再投资压力下,特别是面对来自美国等核心盟友日益高涨的分担要求,单纯依靠国家财政税收是难以为继的,必须引入这种资本杠杆。加拿大迎来了建立防务金融主导能力及周边完整产业生态的历史机遇。核心问题在于:我们如何把这些高附加值和核心技术牢牢保留在加拿大本土?
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: Okay, I'll say two points to that. The first thing is that the capability that empowers the defence sector often originates in civilian, commercial innovation. Investments made in resilience, quantum encryption, or secure supply chains benefit the entire broader economy and protect our critical infrastructure against cyber sabotage.
Secondly, on the financing model: the Defence Bank would backstop and de-risk major initiatives, enabling private and commercial banks to provide the bulk of the financing. For example, a model where the Defence Bank absorbs first-loss risk or guarantees projects can crowd in private banks to finance up to 80% of the loan value, leaving only 20% risk exposure on public or multilateral capital. Yes, there is some taxpayer exposure, but with the level of defence spending that we as middle powers are expected to meet—and that expectation is very real from our American partners—tax revenue alone cannot foot the bill. Leveraging private capital is an absolute necessity. Canada has the opportunity to build that defence finance capability and the entire industrial ecosystem around it. The key question is, how do we keep that value and intellectual property here at home?
杰扬·杰加纳森: 这是一个我们将持续追踪的问题。安·菲茨-杰拉德,非常感谢你为我们深入剖析这一议题。非常感谢。
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: It's a question that we will continue to follow. Ann Fitz-Gerald, I really appreciate you breaking this down for us. Thank you so much.
安·菲茨-杰拉德: 谢谢邀请。
英文原文
Ann Fitz-Gerald: Thank you for having me.
杰扬·杰加纳森: 你认为国防建设应该成为加拿大政府的首要支出重点吗?维和行动在加拿大的军事优先级中是否应该占据更高的位置?欢迎在评论区给我们留言,或发送邮件至 Rundown@TVO.org。感谢收看,我们明天见。
英文原文
Jeyan Jeganathan: Do you think national defence should be a top spending priority here in Canada, and should peacekeeping be higher on the list? Let us know in the comments or send us an email to Rundown@TVO.org. Until then, I will see you tomorrow.