Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. We are live. It is Thursday, November 13th. This was an ugly one. There is no way to mince our words about it. This was an ugly one quite frankly based on some of the drawdowns we're seeing in some specific sectors. Obviously technology, that's been the biggest one that we've seen the pain in today. This is worse for some stocks than liberation day if you look at the actual percentage draw down which is kind of crazy given liberation day was five months ago and a lot has happened in terms of earnings growth since then.

But the market is worried and the market is worried for a variety of different reasons that we're going to talk about today and we're going to get into kind of what is going on. Obviously, it is a red day. It is an ugly day for everybody. I was texting a lot of different people today, and there's nowhere to really hide. I mean, you kind of had to be in Merc and Fizer and, you know, maybe certain types of cyclicals or or consumer defensives to really be out of it. You might have some exposure to that like I'm sure a lot of people do but it might not be the majority of the exposure that most people have which is obviously to things that are more tech-related.

And that's why the S&P 500 down 1.58% on the day. It did get a very small bounce on 670. We somehow maintained 670 today and that is actually a very key level to maintain. So the algos did not let it go below that but 1.5% down is ugly. Amazon down 2%, SoFi down 11%, Big Bear down 11%, IRNT down 12%, D-Wave down 11, Rigetti down 10, Verizon, one of the only green names that is up on the day. Oscar loses 14 based on this ACA subsidy stuff. Hims is down seven.

Meta somehow Meta is holding. I mean, Meta's down a dollar on the day, which is quite incredible for a company like Meta on a day like this. Even Nebius, I expected Nebius to be below 80 bucks by now given the carnage in the data center space. The fact that is holding 89 is actually kind of constructive, but that bounced off 84. Nvidia down three. Nvidia at one point got to 184. Robinhood did get below 121. Uh got to like 119, now it's at 121. Still down 8% on the day. Oracle down another 5%. Palantir down 6%. Palantir did not lose 170, but got very close to losing it. EOSC down 10%. Disney had earnings this morning down 8%. Netflix down 1%. I mean, obviously it's an ugly day. It's an ugly day across the board. The NASDAQ right here down 1.94%.

and everyone's portfolios who is leveraged into technology is experiencing that. Before we get into kind of what's going on or at least why in my opinion the market is so upset because again there was not that major headline that's out there that you can point to like a Trump tweet about soybeans. So it kind of takes a little bit more digging in terms of figuring out what the market is so concerned about. I do want to say this before we get into it.

As the angel light begins to flow into the room, right as I'm about to talk, the angel light comes in. It's actually conducive with what I'm about to say. What I was about to say is nothing has really changed. I mean, the fundamentals of this market that were the same last week, two weeks ago, yesterday when we were 1% away from all-time highs, there's not been a sort of dramatic shift. Yes, there's some labor market data that's not pretty. Yes, the White House is not giving up. Like, yes, there's all those arguments and those are reasonable arguments and those arguments probably warrant a little bit of a sell-off.

But in terms of going net bearish, I just don't see it. I see a lot of people on Twitter today starting to compare this to the dot-com bubble. And you know, when you start to see those types of comparisons, you start to realize, okay, people are really getting either, you know, irrationally scared or they're starting to try to get a lot of attention because they see that attention sells and the easiest way to sell is to be negative.

We are in extreme fear on the fear and greed index. But again, comparing this to the dot-com bubble, when you look at the earnings growth and what has happened in the dot-com bubble versus now is not necessarily the same. Obviously, the debt financing is why Oracle has been hit and a lot of these data center plays have been hit and and that deserves probably the market to take some risk off. That is not a, hey, AI is fake, the bubble is popping, everything is not real, and you know, this entire two-year run around the concept of artificial intelligence is not real. Like, that to me, I don't know. I'm not buying that. It's hard for me to easily say that that's a legit argument.

And I just want to say before we get into it, like the nuances of the intraday moves in the market. By the way, we're still above where we were last Friday when we had a real draw down. So, I know today is ugly for a lot of people just because of the intensity and the velocity of the draw down, but we are not anywhere near the October 17th lows and not anywhere near last Friday's lows. And so, it just helps to put into context like, hey, if we're talking about everything's over, it's all fake. That's not what we're seeing today. Is that trend going to continue? We'll see if that plays out. But for those trying to make that macro claim and then use arguments that they've been making for the whole year, which is that AI isn't real. Again, I think on a day like this, it's easy to make that claim because obviously everyone's scared. I don't know if that claim necessarily has a lot of merit to it.

What is happening today? What is going on and why is it so bad? Also, please put in the chat if anyone bought the dip on anything today and we'll see if people took advantage of this dip. I think there's three things that are going on. Number one, the market did want CPI data today. The White House said it's not going to happen. So, a lack of data is causing issues. And in general, the market is scared that there's certain types of data that the White House might be afraid to show. President Trump, by the way, he had some executive order around foster care with Melania. He did not take any questions and the lack of taking questions kind of also probably is making the market think this guy really doesn't want to address the media and maybe there's a lot of reasons for that, but that in and of itself and the lack of transparency is hurting the market.

Number two, for those that didn't see the headline, Verizon announced 15,000 layoffs. That's 15% of their workforce. Not bullish. Definitely an argument around the labor market weakening, which goes to my third point.

It's contrary to my third point, but nonetheless, it segues into that. You had three different Fed presidents come out over the past 40 hours and say they are more concerned about inflation than the labor market. Then you have Verizon saying, "Let's do 15,000 layoffs." Meaning, maybe I think they should be more concerned about the labor market. Especially when Powell less than three weeks ago at the FOMC meeting. All of us were watching it together live said, "We are more concerned about the downside risk to the labor market versus the upside risk to inflation." It's almost like in 48 hours that entire thesis has changed.

And that really is the big reason for why I think the market's selling off. Yes, lack of transparency is bad. The layoffs are bad. Potential fears on AI capex spend is bad. But the real reason is that the probabilities for a rate cut have now gone to 51.6%. In the morning it was at 55. And yesterday it was at 65. A week ago it was at 75. And two weeks before that it was basically at 100. So you went from basically a guaranteed December rate cut all the way down to a coin toss. And you know, when you have a 50-50 chance, it makes it almost impossible to sort of get the market to have any level of clarity on what's going to happen. And that gets the market to also be very scared.

So, I think those are the culminations of reasons for why we're seeing the type of pain that we're seeing. There's not sort of one specific reason for this draw down, but a 2% red day with no China trade policy going south, no Trump tweet that's triggering the market, but rather this lack of data. I think that's kind of the core reason along with the idea that we're not going to get a rate or that we potentially might not get a rate cut in December.

Now, the shutdown did end last night and the thing that really whipsaws people including myself is wait a second on Friday we were lower than where we are today. We were at almost 6:59 on Friday and then at 2:40 p.m. Eastern on Friday I think all of us remember seeing it. Politico says Democrats ready to end shutdown. Boom. We end green. We ended at 672. It was a full 2% intraday reversal. So all of us were like, "Oh, cool." So the shutdown was kind of the core reason that the market was scared.

Then we actually end the shutdown and we lose everything that we've gotten since then. Now granted, we are at 671, which is very close to 672, which is where we were on Friday. So we're losing what we got over the past couple days. Meaning it's really not as bad as people think, although it's obviously ugly to have a 2% down day. But the point is those headlines of the shutdown didn't actually materialize in terms of the market being more risk on. With the shutdown ending, it's almost like the market got more risk off because of the lack of clarity around news.

And yes, I agree. Hiding the economic data is admitting it's not good, even if the government is open, which is, I think, one of the biggest fears. And then that Verizon headline coming out is obviously not exciting to the market that already doesn't have a lack of clarity around what's going on in terms of the labor market. So, it's ugly. It's ugly.

Does that mean everything is over? Again, I just struggle to say that. You can make a bare case. I think you can also make a pretty stringent bull case given the sort of broader fundamentals around earnings have not changed. Could they change? Of course, anything can change. It's just we're not seeing that right now.

I do think though we were going to get some type of selloff today as soon as the White House said like and they said this like yesterday afternoon that we're not going to get data. I mean, as soon as they started blaming the Democrats for not getting data, yada yada, I think that's when the market was like, "Okay, the data is not good. Labor market's not good and we probably have to be a little bit risk-off." Now, is it as risk-off as what we're seeing today? Is that justified? I don't know. Does that ruin the Santa Claus rally? I don't know. But gut tells me it doesn't have to be as bad as kind of how the market is thinking. Especially because some of these names, you're having valuations compressed, but you're not seeing a full rerating of their earnings picture given a lot of their earnings have been pretty good.

Very little places to hide. You had Nike today that gave you a little bit of green. Lily, did we go green? Lily holding green on the day. That rotation into healthcare again is not the most bearish to see. Cisco actually holding up today up 4.7%.

Bitcoin going down is not helping the bull case for risk on at the moment. By the way, money market funds actually not that big of a deal today. It only increased by 1.8 billion over the past week. Last week it was 116 billion. So you could probably imagine that a lot of people that were going to put money into money market funds did it two weeks ago and this week you didn't get that much of an increase. That one billion is probably just interest on a lot of the money market fund assets that are already there. But 7.54 trillion on the sidelines again going to that bullcase of as rates come down money is going to be waiting to get allocated into assets that are actually growing.

Are the companies producing real earnings? The answer to that question is yes. Are rate cuts coming down? The answer to that question is no one knows and the Fed made it a lot more difficult to find out based on the comments over the past couple days. That's kind of what I think is happening. That is what I think is happening now.

We do have earnings after the bell, so we'll talk about those earnings. I think we're getting these 13Fs today, guys. Chris will be on in like 20 30 minutes and then we'll get his perspective. But we should be getting 13Fs and 13Gs if I'm not wrong today. I think we're already getting a couple that are coming in and so we'll be able to track what some of these larger funds have been doing.

Um, but it is a tough day to report on earnings and New Bank and AAT will be reporting their earnings today. Also, in terms of SoFi, uh Tom Lee added SoFi to the Granny Shots ETF. So, SoFi is now a Granny Shot. $98 million of SoFi he bought. So, SoFi is now an official Granny Shot.

I do think there was definitely a lot of panic throughout the day. If you just scroll Twitter, the amount of people making comparisons to this is the worst day in history and this is the top and this is like how the dot com bubble ends. Michael Burry did shut down his fund a week ago. So, a lot of people are saying is, you know, him shutting down his fund either as the top or it could be the bottom. But, I do think there's an intense level of fear that's out there and it probably caused a ton of selling today. Probably had a ton of margin calls come in today as you know S&P down 2% and stocks down 5 to 10% that'll create a margin call and that likely increased the level of pain that we saw today.

Applied Materials, they beat by 3% on revenue or 2% on revenue, 3% on EPS, 2.17 versus 2.10 on EPS. On Rev, 6.8 versus 6.67. Revenue is down 3%. Year-over-year EPS is down 6%. ticker symbol AMAT that's down another 1% after hours.

New Bank up 4%. Let me see their numbers on New Bank. New bank beats by 7% on EPS, 16 cents versus 15 cents expected. And then revenue 4.17 versus 4.04. They beat by 3%. Revenue is up 42% year-over-year. EPS is up 45% year-over-year. It is a double beat for New Bank. That stock up 2.7%.

Redcat, that's up 7%. Their numbers, they missed by 60% on EPS, negative 16 cents versus negative10 cents expected. 9.64 million versus 8.18 million expected. They beat by 18% on revenue revenues, up 647% year-over-year. EPS is in line year-over-year. That stock is up 7%. So, they have a miss on the bottom line, beat on the top line.

All right, David Tepper, let's see what he did. He sold 7% or sorry 9% of Baba. Sold 7% of Amazon. Added 9% to Nvidia. This is all Q3. Ended September 30th. He sold 8% of his Google. He added 3% to Taiwan Semi. Sold 7% of Meta. Sold 7% of Microsoft. He bought AMD. Wow. He bought AMD. 950,000 shares of AMD. He bought Fiserv. He bought American Airlines, 9.2 million shares of American Airlines, and he added 255% to Qualcomm.

He bought Truist. David Tepper buys Truist. That's a regional bank. He bought Keycorp, Citizens Financial, and Comerica. I think that's another bank. So, he bought a bunch of regionals. Then, he bought Owens Corning. I don't know what that is. And he bought Zions and Western Alliance. He bought all the regionals. So he's buying regionals. This is a rather bullish 13F. I mean, he's buying AI. He's trimming some of his other positions, which is reasonable. He's buying airlines, so he's betting on the consumer. He bought 9 million shares of American Airlines. You don't do that if you think the consumer is in trouble. And then he bought a bunch of regional banks, which means he's calling BS on the whole credit crisis that people were screaming about in the regionals.

Robin Hood metrics are available today. Renaissance Technologies, let me pull that up. It does look like based on what I'm looking at in a different source that they sold their they sold a billion bucks worth of hood. A billion bucks worth of hood. Palantir they sold 4 million shares. Nvidia 1.7. Microsoft they added 940,000 shares. Roblox they added 781,000. Palantir and Nvidia are now one and two. They have 8 million of Palantir. Nvidia they have 5.6 million.

Bridgewater. We are out. Let's see what we got. Snowflake, they added 22,000 shares. Netflix, they added 23,000. Micro Strategy, they added 2,000. Grab, wow, they added, is this correct? 4.5 million. Yeah. Wow. 15.1 million shares now for Grab. 4.5 million Bridgewater adds. New positions. They added CleanSpark 64,000. Cloudflare 15,000. Delta 90,000, Duolingo 50,000, Lockheed Martin 45,000. Micron 280,000. Rocket Lab. Wow. 177,000. That's new for them as of Q3. Robin Hood. Oh, wow. 87,000. They added Robin Hood. Palantir, they added 107,000 of Palantir. Wow. And then let's go to reduced. Maybe we'll see a reduction for Nvidia. Up four million shares of Nvidia. 4.7. That's not a That's a 65% reduction. And Meta, they sold 390,000. So, they have 400,000 shares of Meta left and 2.5 million shares of Nvidia. But that is a decent chunk. 48% Meta stake they sold and then 65% Nvidia stake that they sold.

Oh, Howard Marks is out. Howard Marks is out. Let's see. Wow. It is out, folks. He added to Grab. He added 4 and a half%. I believe that's a million shares. He added to grab. He bought New Bank. Wow. Tanner's going to be happy. He bought 4.5 million shares of New Bank. So, he added 5% to Grab another million shares, added 4.5 million shares to New Bank, he added 70% to C Limited. So, he continues to be bullish on Southeast Asia with Grab and C Limited. He's probably saying the United States is too expensive and he wants exposure outside of the states.

I do not think what we're seeing in 2025, this 2% red day on a 14% green S&P 500 year, is the beginning of a.com bubble. Maybe I'm wrong about it, and if I'm wrong, I'll be publicly wrong. I just I really don't see that as the underlying reason. I think it was a sucky day on a week where we didn't have any jobs data where the government reopened but they reopened with a condition to shut down again in January which the market's also just like all right what are we supposed to do with this and you have headlines like Verizon's laying off 15,000. When you get those types of headlines on a day like this it obviously creates pain but I don't think that's enough to deny sort of the structural factors of this bull market.

From a mental health perspective, I say this all the time when we have days like this. Number one, no pain, no gains. Like if you are up a lot this year, if you're healthily beating the S&P 500, you are up for a reason. And part of the reason is that you're probably inside of names that have vastly outperformed. You don't get that type of out performance, particularly in technology stocks, without the draw downs. And then number two is just to remember that at the end of the day, do you believe in the two structural fundamental foundations of this bull market, which is the AI trade, which is increasing margins, efficiency, capex, etc., and Fed easing. I don't think the thesis has changed on those two, no matter how much the Fed says they're not going to cut in December. Okay, maybe they don't cut in December, but you're going to be cutting aggressively next year regardless with or without Powell. And then I definitely don't think there's a crack in the AI trade.