从组织架构图到赚钱机会
主持人: 我看着那张组织架构图,然后说:“这张组织架构图简直一团糟。”而这恰恰是赚钱的好机会。如果你能找到某个混乱不堪、又容易理顺的东西,那就太好了——你的钱就在那里。那就是你赚大钱的机会。
Original English
Host: So, I looked at that org chart and said, "This is a messed up org chart." Which is great for making money. If you can find something that's messed up and easy to unsess, booyah, there's your money. There's your opportunity to make a lot of money.
主持人: 你已经赚了几十亿美元。关于金钱、花钱、以及和钱共处,你学到了哪些希望你早点知道的教训?
Original English
Host: You've made a few billion dollars. What lessons have you learned about money and spending money and living with money that you wish you knew sooner?
布拉德·雅各布斯: 你知道吗,这问题挺有意思的。你这个问题让我有点措手不及,因为如果你看那些数字,真正的增长其实是通过并购、通过收购实现的。我在收购上的秘诀是什么?核心要点是这样的:很多人有一个僵化的商业计划,把未来好多年都写得清清楚楚,然后就完了。但这种方法通常行不通。为什么?因为生活会变,市场会变,经济会变。如果你很僵化,如果你只是僵化地思考,那么当赚钱的机会送到你面前、可以为股东创造价值时,你会觉得:“嗯,这挺好的,很棒,但这真的不是我们做的事。”这种想法很糟糕。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: You know, it's interesting. You throw me off a little bit with the question cuz when you look at the numbers, the real growth has been through M&A, through acquisitions. What's been my secrets on acquisitions? Here's the gist. A lot of people have a rigid business plan that's spelled out for many years and that's it. And it's very that doesn't usually work. Why? Because life changes, markets change, economies change, and if you're rigid, if you're just rigid thinking, you're going to have things come your way to make money for shareholders and feel, well, it's nice, it's great, but it's really not our thing. That's a bad way of thinking.
主持人: 你曾说过,只要抓住大趋势,很多小错都无所谓。你现在最关心的大趋势是什么?
Original English
Host: You've said you can get a lot of things wrong if you get the big trend right. What major trend are you most interested in right now?
开场引言
旁白: 听着,没有任何一段对话比这段让我赚了更多钱。如果你还没听过,现在正是时候。如果你听过,那这是一段经典,值得再看一遍。布拉德·雅各布斯创办了八家各自市值超过十亿美元的公司。他完成了大约500次收购。所以,当他说有一种赚钱方法可以减少运气的作用时,值得听一听。而这次采访正好详细讲了他到底是怎么做的。不过,最令人惊讶的优势根本不来自商业,而是我们所有人都能学到的东西。让我们开始吧。
Original English
Narrator: Listen, there is no conversation that's made me more money than this one. If you haven't heard it, now is the time. If you have, it's a classic and worth watching again. Brad Jacobs has started eight separate companies worth more than a billion dollars each. He's done about 500 acquisitions. So, when he says that there is a way to make money that reduces the role of luck, it's worth listening to him. And this interview lays out exactly how he does it. The most surprising advantage, though, doesn't come from business at all. It's something we can all learn. Let's get into it.
与雷·库兹韦尔的会面
主持人: 写了《奇点临近》的雷·库兹韦尔是你的偶像之一,你最近见到了他。我很好奇,那次对话你收获了什么?感觉怎么样?
Original English
Host: Ray Kurzweil, who wrote The Singularity, is one of your heroes, and you recently met him. I'm curious what you took away from that conversation and what it was like.
布拉德·雅各布斯: 我最近确实见到了他,那感觉就像见到了阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦,或者见到了米开朗基罗那样的人物。因为当你看到他的视野——他那宏大的视野——他看的是宇宙的历史,追溯到130多亿年前,看我们是怎么走到今天的,然后看那些趋势,看我们要往哪里去。他指出了最重要的大趋势:智人创造了技术,创造了工具,从几百万年前的石头、鹅卵石开始,然后是火,然后是定居点,然后在过去几百年里,进步如此之多,而在过去20年里更是突飞猛进,不断加速、加速。现在有了AI,加速得更快了。那会走向何方?我们创造的工具、我们创造的技术,在某些特质上正在变得比我们人类自己更强大。我们能够把很多活动外包给我们自己的技术。雷预测了一个奇点:技术会变得比人类更聪明、更有能力,然后我们与技术融合。我们在自己身体里大量使用技术,用可穿戴设备、纳米机器人等等,还有AI,以及把我们的记忆、感官外包出去。到那时,你真的不能再叫它智人了,因为那些特征和特性已经改变得太多,我们会说智人已经灭绝了,出现了一个新的物种。我觉得他很可能说得对。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: I did recently meet him and it was like meeting Albert Einstein or meeting someone Michelangelo because when you look at his context, his wide context, he's looking at the history of the universe going back 13 point something billion years and how we got here and then looking at those trends and where are we going? He identifies the most important trend of all which is homo sapiens have created technology have created tools starting with stone pebbles and over a couple million years ago and then fire and then settlements and over the last couple hundred years so much more so much more in the last 20 years accelerating accelerating and now with AI it's accelerating even more and where's that going? The tools that we've created, the technology we've created, is becoming more capable than we are at certain of our traits and we're able to outsource a lot of our activities to our own technology. And Ray predicts a singularity whereby technology becomes more intelligent, more capable than humans and we merge with technology that we use so much technology in our own bodies with wearables and nanobots and so forth and AI and outsourcing our memory and sensory and so forth that you really can't call it homo sapiens anymore because the traits characteristics have changed so much that we'll say homo sapiens has become extinct and there's a new species. And I think he's probably right.
主持人: 你觉得那会带来什么好处,又有什么坏处?
Original English
Host: What do you think the benefits of that are and what do you think the drawbacks are?
布拉德·雅各布斯: 好处是我们应该能完成多得多的成就。你看我们这颗星球,80亿人,有很多事情我们做得很好,但也有很多事情我们做得不好,最主要的就是彼此和睦相处。信息共享不到位,资源共享不到位。我觉得随着技术进步,我们将能够更智能、更充裕地分配资源,让更多人拥有更多资源。我觉得医疗会更好,科学会更好。我们能活得更久,能更了解自己的思维方式,能更有建设性地思考。因为那是人类需要改进的一个领域——我们很多时候并不理性。我觉得随着技术和AI的进步,我们会思考得更理性。所以可以说,会有不间断的“心理治疗”。当你面对来自全世界四面八方涌来的信息时,你怎么保持理性思考?你是情绪化的,会有巨大的情绪波动。我是说,你曾经在一天之内市值蒸发几十亿美元。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: Well the benefits are we should be able to accomplish a lot more. So if you look at us as a planet, 8 billion people, there's a lot of things we do well but there's a lot of things we don't do well, primarily get along with each other. And information sharing is not there. Resource sharing is not there. I think with advances in technology, we will be able to distribute resources more intelligently and more abundantly and have more resources for more people. And I think medicine will be better and science will be better. We'll be able to live longer. We'll be able to be more in touch with the way we think and to be able to think more constructively because that's one of the places, it's an area of improvement for humans, is we don't think rationally a lot of times. And I think with technology and AI advancements that we will think more rationally. So there'll be non-stop therapy, so to speak.
主持人: 你怎么在拥有所有这些来自世界各地的信息时保持理性思考?你是情绪化的,会有巨大的情绪波动。我的意思是,你曾经在一天之内市值损失几十亿美元。
Original English
Host: How do you think rationally when you have all this information coming at you from all over the world? You're emotional, you have big swings. I mean, you've lost billions of dollars in market cap in a day.
布拉德·雅各布斯: 我并不总是思考得完全理性,我不是完美的人。但我在一生中一直关注自己的思维方式,我跟各种以分析思维方式为专长的人学习过。我还做过几年心理治疗,每周三个小时,持续了几年。所以我花了很多时间反思我是怎么思考的,我的自动思维是什么,我的偏见是什么,我的认知扭曲是什么。我了解这些,然后我会运用认知疗法、辩证行为疗法、积极心理学等工具箱里学到的各种技巧和工具,来让自己思考得更理性、更有建设性、更准确。我觉得这在商业上帮了我很多。在商业中,你需要保持头脑清醒,你需要冷静、沉着、镇定。你要面对大量不断变化的、计划外的情况,然后利用这些情况获利,而不是被它们压垮。不是被打垮,而是利用送上门来的东西,把送上门来的东西变成钱,为股东创造财富。所以我觉得,人力资本在心理层面是非常非常重要的。所以我在这方面投入精力。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: I don't always think perfectly rationally. I'm not a perfect person. I've paid attention to the way I think over the course of my life and I've studied with various people who that's their specialty is analyzing how you think. And I did a couple years of therapy for three hours a week for a couple years. So I have spent a lot of time reflecting on how I think, what my automatic thoughts are, what my biases are, what my cognitive distortions are, and I'm aware of those and I apply various techniques and tools in the toolkit that you learn from cognitive therapy, dialectical behavior therapy, positive psychology, etc., to think more rationally and more constructively and more accurately. And I think that helps me in business quite a bit. In business, you need to keep your head on your shoulders. You need to be calm. You need to be cool. You need to be collected. You need to be dealing with lots of changing unplanned circumstances and then capitalizing on those and not being overwhelmed by those. Not being beat up but utilize what comes in, capitalize on what comes in to create money for shareholders. So I think the human capital in the psychological sense is very very important. So I put energy into that.
关注AI大趋势
主持人: 你曾说过,只要抓住大趋势,很多小错都无所谓。你现在最关心的大趋势是什么?
Original English
Host: You've said you can get a lot of things wrong if you get the big trend right. What major trend are you most interested in right now?
布拉德·雅各布斯: 我最关心的是AI,因为它就是那个大趋势。它是头号趋势。我们的技术、软件、智能将能够消化海量信息,比我们人类能消化的多得多——即使我们有1000亿个脑细胞。计算能力要强大得多,然后能够分析这些信息,输出结果。最终——我很期待那个时刻——电脑变得有情感,它们真的有情绪,真的有同理心,就像我们大脑前部、前额叶皮层里有镜像神经元一样。我很希望看到这个趋势成真:电脑能感受,能拥有心理理论,能坐在这里和谢恩·帕里什对话,感受到你的感受,为你感到高兴的事而高兴,为你不高兴的事而难过。我非常期待那个趋势。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: I'm most interested in AI because it is the trend. It is the number one trend whereby our technology, software, that intelligence will be able to consume so much information, much more than we human beings can even with 100 billion brain cells. The power of computing is so much greater and be able to then analyze that and be able to spit things out and be able to eventually — I'm looking forward to the point where computers become emotional, where they do have emotion, where they do have empathy, just like we have mirror neurons in the front of our brain in the prefrontal cortex. I'd like to see that trend materialize where computers can feel, can have theory of mind, can be sitting here in a conversation with Shane Parish and feeling what you're feeling, feeling happy about what you're feeling happy about and feeling sad about something you're not feeling happy about. I'm looking forward to that trend a lot.
主持人: 大家都知道AI是个趋势,但你在大家认识到之前就发现了好几个趋势,而且据我所知,你在AI曲线上也远远领先。你是怎么在那些趋势成为主流之前就发现它们的?
Original English
Host: Everybody recognizes AI as being a trend, but you've spotted several trends well before people recognize them and you are way ahead on the AI curve too, as I understand it. How do you spot those trends before they become mainstream?
布拉德·雅各布斯: 我确实花了很多时间思考趋势。我会花很多时间思考事物的更广阔背景,比如:好,这是一个情况,那这个情况的背景是什么?它的起源是什么?它现在的条件和特征是什么?它可能往哪些方向发展?什么催化剂会让它往右、往直或往左走?所以,我确实有意地经常思考趋势,因为在商业世界里,你必须抓住大趋势。你必须抓住大趋势。正如我的主要商业导师——愿他安息——卢迪孔常说的:你可以搞砸很多事情,但如果你抓住了主要趋势,你就会赚很多钱。反过来,如果你没抓住主要趋势,那你就是在逆水行舟。你可以把其他很多事情做对,但你赚不到大钱。所以,我会有意地花时间思考:这一切处在什么位置?它可能走向何方?
Original English
Brad Jacobs: Well I do spend a lot of time thinking about trends. I spend a lot of time thinking about the wider context of things, like okay here's a situation, what's the context of that situation? What's its origin? What's its present conditions and characteristics? What are the ways it could go? And what would be the catalyst to make it go right or straight or left? So I intentionally think about trends quite a bit because in business, in the business world, you got to get the major trend right. You've got to get the major trend right. And as my main business mentor, may rest in peace, Ludicon, used to say, you can mess up a lot of things, but if you get the main trend right, you're going to make a lot of money. And conversely, if you don't get the main trend right, you're swimming upstream. You can do a lot of other things right, but you're not gonna make a lot of money. So I intentionally spend time thinking about where does all this fit in and where could it be going?
主持人: 你的研究过程是什么样的?
Original English
Host: What's your research process like?
布拉德·雅各布斯: 我……
Original English
Brad Jacobs: I…
保持学生心态与提问的艺术
Shane: 我喜欢与人交流,喜欢汲取别人的智慧。在请教别人意见这件事上,我从不觉得难为情。比起当老师,我更愿意当学生。我发现很多人随着年龄增长或事业越来越成功,会犯一个错误——他们觉得自己什么都懂了,于是开始不停地教导别人。我通过写书、做播客这类方式,分享一些我认为自己确实有洞见、可以回馈给别人的东西,但我绝对把自己看作一个生活的学生。我完全不觉得自己是什么已经参透一切的导师,差得远呢。我觉得如果你能保持那种深刻的好奇心,对真正有趣的事物保持兴趣,非常渴望学习,并且全身心投入感官体验、智力体验和分析能力之中,我认为你能学到多得多的东西,能看到别人看不到的趋势。否则你只是身处其中、活在当下,却看不到趋势,只是随波逐流地往前走。
Original English
Shane: I like people, and I like picking people's brains, and I'm shameless about asking people their opinions, and I like to be a student more than a teacher. I find a lot of people make the mistake as they get older or they get more successful, they think they know everything and they start teaching all the time. I'm sharing through the book I wrote and through podcasts like this and so forth the few little things that I think I have insights that I can give back to, but I absolutely view myself as a student of life. I don't view myself as a guru who's figured it all out by a long shot. And I think if you keep that element of profound curiosity, of really interesting and being very interested to learn and being involved with the sensory experience, be involved in the intellectual experience, be involved in an analytical capabilities, I think you can learn a lot more and you can see trends that otherwise you don't see it. You're just in it and you're living it, but you're not seeing the trend. You're just kind of going along.
Shane: 很多达到你这个成功水平的人,会把大量这类工作外包给别人。我的意思是,他们会说“去研究这个,回来告诉我,给我这些要点”。但你似乎非常亲力亲为,深入细节,非常投入。为什么这对你来说很重要?
Original English
Shane: A lot of people who reach your level of success sort of outsource a lot of this work to other people. And by that I mean, do research on this, come back to me, give me these points, but you seem very hands-on, in the weeds, very involved in the detail. Why is that important to you?
Speaker A: 我两种方式都用,Shane。我确实有一个团队帮我做研究,但我也喜欢卷起袖子亲自上阵。我喜欢去探究,比如我做并购的时候。你知道,我领导的团队完成了大约500笔收购。我都参与了这些收购。我会深入细节,搞清楚我们到底在买什么。而为了买下那500家公司,我们看了成千上万家最终没有买下的公司。我热爱这个过程。我喜欢研究每一家公司,弄清楚它们是如何从零开始,做到现在几百万、几亿甚至几十亿美元营收的。它们是怎么做到的?这就像个奇迹,太棒了。我对那些创造了巨大增长和巨大价值的企业家和公司感到非常钦佩、兴奋和着迷,我想去理解这一切。所以我想深入细节,我想汲取他们的智慧。我认为向别人提大量问题有巨大的价值。今天是你在提问,我在回答。但通常情况是反过来的。通常是我在提大量问题。如果你去参加管理层会议,通常提问最多的人是我。
Original English
Speaker A: I do both, Shane. I do have a team that researches things for me, but I also like to roll up my sleeves and get into it myself. I like to find, even like when I do M&A. So, you know, my teams that I've led have done about 500 acquisitions. I've been involved in those acquisitions. I get into the details of what are we buying. And to buy those 500 companies, we looked at thousands and thousands of other companies that we didn't buy. And I love the process. I love studying each company, figuring out how they get to the point where now there are millions or hundreds of millions or billions of dollars of revenue, and they started from scratch. And how do they do that? It's like a miracle. It's fantastic. I'm very impressed and excited and enamored with entrepreneurs and companies that have created huge growth and huge value, and I want to understand that. So I want to get into the detail of it. I want to pick their brains. I see a big value in asking lots of questions to people. Now today you're the one asking questions, I'm answering. But normally it's a role reversal. Normally I'm asking a lot of questions. If you go into a management meeting, I'm usually asking lots of questions.
Shane: 关于提问这件事,你学到了什么五年前你希望自己就知道的道理?
Original English
Shane: What have you learned about asking questions that you wish you knew 5 years ago?
Speaker A: 我是从心理治疗师那里学到提问的。我在书里写过,我人生中唯一一次感到抑郁,是2000年代中期,当时我从一家大公司United Rentals的CEO位置上退下来。那时我无事可做。我做一些艺术相关的事,学习艺术、买艺术品,和家人一起做些事情等等,但我没有事业了。我从那段经历中学到,每个人都有自己的兴奋点。对我来说就是经营企业。我从23岁起就一直担任CEO。我喜欢当CEO,我真的很喜欢那份工作。那时我不再是CEO了,我感到巨大的空虚。我感到抑郁,情绪低落,有很多消极的、不准确的想法。这促使我去见了许多非常出色的心理治疗师,我的意思是顶尖水平的治疗师。纽约有一位心理治疗师叫Albert Ellis,他大约在10到15年前去世了,他创立了一个治疗学派叫理性情绪行为疗法,简称REBT,简而言之就是认知疗法,认知行为疗法。他和另一位精神科医生Aaron Beck一起,他的家人朋友都叫他Tim。我有幸也见到了他,并和他的家人共度了时光。Tim Beck,也就是Aaron Beck,和Albert Ellis是认知疗法的共同创始人。我发现,在所有职业中,心理治疗师最擅长提问,最擅长让人放松、让人自在、让人敞开心扉。我从研究这些心理治疗师身上学到的第一点是,在你开始用问题去“拷问”别人、去探究、去问那些重要的事情之前——有时候是私人的事,有时候是亲密的事,有时候是隐秘的事——你需要先营造一种氛围。你需要创造一个安全的环境,一个可以允许自己脆弱的区域。在这里,说出你真实的感受是没问题的,摘下面具、展现真实的自己也是可以的,包括所有的缺点。这真的非常重要。要做到这一点,你需要倾听。我从研究他们身上学到,在一段关系中,无论是私人关系还是职业关系,你能做的最有力的事情,也许是最有力的一件事,就是给予对方100%的关注,就像你现在这样。你正给我100%的注意力。我能感觉到。你看着我,你听我说话,你真的在关注我说的话。顺便说一句,这感觉很好。这给我施加了一点压力,让我表现得更好,给你好的回答,但你在做一件很有力量的事。你在给我你的关注,你给我100%的关注。我发现心理治疗师们,这是他们的小技巧之一,他们的技能之一,他们的技术之一——你的治疗时间是45分钟或两小时或别的什么,在那段时间里,他们完全属于你。他们全都在听你说话,他们所有的注意力都在你身上。这对说话的人会产生某种效果。其次,他们不带评判。
Original English
Speaker A: I take questioning from the therapist. So, I wrote in the book that the only time in my life that I've been depressed, but I was really depressed, was in the mid 2000s when I had stepped down from being CEO of this big company, United Rentals. And now I didn't have anything to do. I was doing some art. I was studying art and buying art. I was doing things with my family and so forth, but I didn't have a business. And I learned from that that everyone has their own thing that makes them excited. Me is running businesses. I've been a CEO since I've been 23 years old. And I like being a CEO. I really like that job. Now, I wasn't a CEO and I felt a big gap. I felt depressed. I was down and had a lot of unconstructive thoughts and inaccurate thoughts and so forth. And that drew me to meeting a lot of fantastic psychotherapists, and I mean fantastic at the top of their game. So there was a psychotherapist in New York City called Albert Ellis. He died about 10, 15 years ago, and he had formed a school of therapy called rational emotive behavior therapy, REBT, but in short it was cognitive therapy. It was cognitive behavior therapy. He, together with another psychiatrist, actually Aaron Beck, whose family and friends called him Tim. I got the privilege of meeting him too and spending time with him and his family. Tim Beck, or Aaron Beck, and Albert Ellis were the co-founders of cognitive therapy. And I find that therapists, of all the different professions, are the best at asking questions and the best at getting a person to relax, getting a person at ease and to open up. And what I learned from studying those psychotherapists first is you need, before you start badging someone with questions and inquiring and asking them all these important things—sometimes personal things, sometimes intimate things, sometimes private things—you need to create an atmosphere. You need to create an environment that's a safe place. That's a zone where it's okay to be vulnerable. It's okay to say what you really feel. It's okay to take off your mask and show who you really are. Warts and all. And that's really, really important. And to do that, you need to be listening. And I learned from studying them that the most, maybe the single most powerful thing you can do in a relationship, whether it's personal, whether it's professional, is to give someone your 100%, like you're doing now. You're giving me 100% of your attention. I can see it. You're looking at me. You're listening to me. You're actually paying attention to what I'm saying. And that feels good, by the way. It's putting a little pressure on me to perform better, give me good answers, but you're doing something powerful. You're giving me your attention. You're giving me 100% of your attention. And I find with therapists, that's one of their tricks, one of their skills, one of their techniques—you have your session for 45 minutes or two hours or whatever it is. And during that time, they're all yours. They're all listening to you, and they've got all their attention on you. And that has a certain effect on the person speaking. And secondly, they're not being judgmental.
Shane: 所以他们不会……换句话说,他们不会在找到一种方式先同意你之前就反对你。先联结,再引导;先认可,再质疑。所以即使他们在改变你的思维方式,比如说“嗯,有没有更好的角度来看待这件事?我们能不能换个更有建设性的角度来看?”在这样做之前,在质疑之前,在改变和转化之前,他们首先是联结。他们表现出他们理解你,他们听了你的话,他们懂你,他们明白你说了什么。信息已收到。我发现这在商业中非常强大,无论你面对的是员工,还是你想收购其公司的人,还是供应商、投资者,或是生气的客户。这样做非常好。给予某人100%的关注,不带评判地倾听他们,这是非常有滋养作用的。我称之为“不带评判的专注”。我觉得这个说法是我发明的,也许不是,我忘了,也许应该归功于别人。但这是我用的一个说法——不带评判的专注。当你真正把全部意识都交给某人,不去评判他们,而是跟随他们,试图进入他们的思维方式,甚至他们的感受方式。所以不只是他们在想什么,还有他们感觉如何?背后潜藏的情绪是什么?我经常使用这个方法。在书里我有一章是关于如何开一场“充满电力的会议”——如何主持一场有力量的会议,让每个人都带着兴奋离开,带着一大堆能为股东创造价值的事情去做,而不是那种沉闷的例会。这种会议的一个要素是,会议室里的每个人都关掉所有设备,把不带评判的专注力集中在当前正在发言的那个人身上。没有私下交谈,没有互相抢话。一次只有一个人发言,但房间里的每个人都给予他全部的注意力。这是非常强大的东西。我非常喜欢这一点。这某种程度上也是我们这档播客的秘密所在。
Original English
Shane: So they're not—in other words, they're not disagreeing with you without first finding a way of agreeing with you. Joining then leading, validating than disputing. So even when they are changing the way you're thinking and say, gee, is there a better way to look at that? Is there another way we can look at that, be more constructive? Before doing that, before that disputing, before that changing, that transforming, they're first joining. They're showing that they understood you, they listen to you, they got you, they got what you said. Message received. And I find that's really powerful in business, whether you're dealing with employees or whether you're dealing with someone whose business you're trying to buy, or you're dealing with a vendor, or you're dealing with an investor, or an upset customer. It's very good to do that. It's very nourishing and nurturing to give someone 100% of your attention and listen to them non-judgmentally. I call it non-judgmental concentration. I think I made up that phrase. Maybe I didn't. I forgot, and I should have attributed to someone else. But that's a phrase I use. Non-judgmental concentration—when you're really taking all your consciousness and giving it to someone, and not judging them, but going with them, trying to get into their way of thinking, their way of feeling even. So not just what are they thinking, but how are they feeling? So what's the emotion that's underlying that? And I use that quite a bit. And in the book I have a chapter on how to have an electric meeting—how to run an electric meeting, which means a meeting that's powerful. A meeting that everyone goes away exhilarated. Everyone goes away with lots of things to do that can create a lot of value for the shareholders. Not just one of these whole-home meetings. And an element of that meeting is everyone in the meeting shuts off all their devices and concentrates non-judgmentally—non-judgmental concentration—on the one person who's speaking at a time. No side conversations, no talking over each other. One person speaks at a time, but everyone in the room gives them all their attention. It's really powerful thing. I like that a lot. It's sort of the secret to our podcast in a—
倾听的本质与音乐、数学、商业的关系
Shane Parrish:这种方式就是,我想透过你的眼睛看世界。我不必同意或不同意。那不是我的工作,我只是想看到你所看到的,想你所想的,闻你所闻到的,这样我才能真正理解你的出发点。我认为很多时候倾听是交易性的——我在等你停下来,这样我就能说点什么;或者我有这个观点,你不理解它,所以我并没有真正在听你说话,因为你现在在谈别的事情。我认为这是我们沟通不畅的最大原因之一。
Original English
Shane Parrish: That way, which is I want to see the world through your eyes. I don't have to agree or disagree. That's not my job is I just want to see what you see, think what you think, smell what you smell, and then that way I can truly understand where you're coming from. And I think that so often listening is transactional in the sense of I'm waiting for you to stop so I can just say something or I have this point, you don't understand it, so I'm not really listening to you because you're talking about something else now. And I think it's one of the biggest reasons we miscommunicate.
Shane Parrish:是的。
Original English
Shane Parrish: Yeah.
Shane Parrish:那么,和心理治疗师一起工作,是不是你在那里学到了关于重新排列我们的大脑、控制思维、以及思维实验和心态的重要性的?跟我谈谈这方面吧。
Original English
Shane Parrish: Is the work with the psychotherapist is that where you learned about rearranging our brain and controlling the mind and the importance of sort of thought experiments and mindset or talk to me a little bit about that.
Speaker A:那是其中的一个来源。你知道,我从小到大的主要爱好就是冥想,各种形式的冥想。然后从冥想开始,我学习了自我催眠,然后从那里我学习了所有的正念、积极心理学、认知疗法等等。所以我混合搭配了很多不同的思想流派,并根据我自己的个性、背景和独特性进行了定制。所以这不是单一的东西。我有很多不同的影响,塑造了我看待生活的方式和我处理现实的方式。其中很多来自我小时候的教育——我学的是音乐和数学。但在音乐中,很多是关于关系的,除非你是独奏表演者,而我不是。我喜欢在团体中演奏。我喜欢乐队。我喜欢和别人一起演奏。与他人互动是创造出真正伟大音乐的神奇之处的一部分。那也对我产生了很大的影响。我把自己定义为音乐家,而不是商人,你可能会觉得奇怪,因为我花了很多时间建立大企业、经营大型企业,但当我想起自己时,我想到的是一个恰好做了很多商业并且做得不错的音乐家。但我觉得自己是个音乐家,我的意思是,我的听觉是主导感官,我非常倾听——我倾听声音。我倾听自己的心跳。倾听自己的呼吸。我倾听这个房间里此刻正在发生的声音。我有所谓的耳鸣——我加上引号,因为我不认为那是痛苦,我认为那很棒。从青少年时期开始我耳朵里就有这种响声,可能是因为听音乐太大声了,现在我就有。我听到非常高频的声音。我喜欢它。它让事情变得有趣。它是我的朋友。它让我保持音准。有时它们变大声,有时变小声。
Original English
Speaker A: That was one of the places you know for my main hobby since I was a teenager has been meditation and various forms of meditation and then from meditation into learned self hypnosis and then from there I learned all the mindfulness and the positive psychology and cognitive therapy and so forth. So I've mixed and matched a lot of different schools of thought and customized it for me for my own personality and my background and my individuality. So it's not just one thing. I've had many different influences that have created the way I look at life and the way I deal with reality. And a lot of that was my education when I was a kid was I studied music. I studied music and math. But in music, it is a lot about relationships unless you're a solo performer and I was not. I liked playing in a group. I like I liked a band. I like playing with other people. Interacting with the other folks is part of the magic of making really great music. That's had a big influence on me, too. I define myself I self-identify as a musician more than a business person which you might find odd because I've spent a lot of time building big businesses and running large enterprises but when I think about myself I think about myself as a musician who happens to be doing a lot of business and has done well at business but I feel like a musician and by that I mean my sense of sound is the dominant sense and I listen very I listen to sounds. I listen to my heartbeat. Listen to my breath. I listen to sounds in this room going on right now. I suffer quote unquote and I put air quotes on it because I don't consider it suffering. I consider it fantastic. Tinnitus where you have this ringing in your ear from when I was a teenager probably from listening to music too loud and I have it right now. I'm hearing very high pitch sounds. I love it. It keeps it interesting. It's my friend. It keeps me in tune. Sometimes they get louder, sometimes they get softer.
Shane Parrish:现在,有些人有耳鸣——我可能发音不对,但你知道我在说什么。那种响声。他们会说:“哦,天哪,这是件可怕的事情。它让我发疯。”他们对这件事感到非常不安。而我的态度正好相反。我觉得拥有它我很幸运。我真的幸运,我不知道没有它生活会是什么样子。这就是作为音乐家的一部分。作为音乐家的一部分就是拥抱声音,不管它们是什么。
Original English
Shane Parrish: Now, some people have tinnitus and they—and I might be mispronouncing that, but you know what I'm talking about. Yeah. Ringing there. And they say, "Oh my god, it's a terrible thing. It drives me crazy." And they get all upset about the thing. I have just the opposite attitude. I feel I'm lucky to have that. I really am lucky and I wouldn't know what life would be like without it. And that's part of being a musician. Part of being a musician is embracing sounds no matter what they are.
Speaker A:不管它们是什么,那就是当下的现实,你应该身处那个现实,顺其自然。
Original English
Speaker A: No matter what they are and that's that's the reality of the moment and you should be in that reality and and go with that.
商业中的数学与音乐思维
Shane Parrish:如果让你猜的话,音乐、数学和商业之间是什么关系?
Original English
Shane Parrish: What's the relationship if you had to guess between music, math, and business?
Speaker A:很多。对我来说,非常多。那么,让我们从商业开始,然后这就会展示另外两件事如何与之相关。商业的核心是为股东赚钱。企业的成绩单是——你以股权形式从别人那里拿钱。债务你要偿还,但股权是珍贵的,人们把股权投入企业,现在你必须在他们卖出股票时把钱还给他们,而且要比他们给你的多得多。所以在我的一些公司里,我们很幸运能够在一家公司返还他们32倍的资金,在其他公司超过150倍。所以真的是非常非常大的回报,超乎寻常的高回报。那不是靠运气。那不是巧合。如果是巧合,就不会连续五次大规模地发生。那是因为有一套打法。那是因为有一种方法。而那个方法包含了很多很多不同的元素。我在书里谈到了相当多这样的元素,它们结合在一起,赋予你创造我们所说的商业世界中“阿尔法”的能力——不仅仅是“贝塔”,也就是市场上涨,你跟着市场一起涨,而是“阿尔法”,它超过“贝塔”,超过整体水位上涨——几乎所有船都被同一股潮水抬升。而这个公式的组成部分——为股东创造巨额回报——包括分析性思维、对数字的仔细分析,这就是所有的数学。从混乱中建立秩序,试图看清这一切如何组合在一起,看到不同事物之间的关系。如何把事物简化,因为伟大的数学家把非常复杂的事物简化为一个公式,例如。是的,用几笔就能表达出来。所以这就是数学。这就是数学之美——看到模式。
Original English
Speaker A: A lot. For me, it a lot. So, let's start with the business and then that'll show how those other two things relate to it. Business is about making money for shareholders at core. The report card for a business is you take money from other people in the form of equity. The debt you pay back, but the equity is dear and people invest equity into the business and now you have to give them back that money when they sell their shares but much much more money than they gave you. So in my companies we've been fortunate that we've been able to give back 32 times their money in one and other companies over 150 times. So really really large large large large returns like over the top unusually high returns. That wasn't by luck. That wasn't coincidental. If it was coincidental it wouldn't happened five times in a row in large amounts. That was because there was a playbook. That was because there was a method to it. And that method incorporates many many different elements. And I talk about quite a bunch of them in the book that together give you an ability to create what we call alpha in the business world, which is not just beta, which is the market's going up, so you're going together with the market, but alpha, which exceeds the beta, exceeds the overall uplift that pretty much all boats are lifting by the same tide. And part of the ingredients to that formula to make huge returns for shareholders involve analytical thought, careful analysis of numbers is all the math. Making order out of disorder, trying to see where how does this all fit together and seeing the relationships between different things. How to reduce things to simplicity because a great mathematicians reduce very complicated things to a formula for example. Yeah. Expressed with just a few handstrokes. So that's math. That's mathematics. That's the beauty of mathematics is seeing the patterns.
Shane Parrish:看到模式,看到如何从中理出头绪。
Original English
Shane Parrish: Seeing the patterns, seeing how to make sense out of this.
Speaker A:而在音乐方面,就是能够即兴创作,因为我最初的训练是古典音乐,但后来我有幸在本宁顿学院跟随非裔美国音乐家学习——米尔福德·格雷夫斯、比尔·迪克森。那整个训练的一部分就是要自发、即兴、活在当下。
Original English
Speaker A: And on the music side, it's being able to improvise because my training was originally classical, but then I had the fortune to study with African-American musicians in Bennington College, Milford Graves, Bill Dixon. And part of that whole training was to be spontaneous and to be improvising and to be in the moment.
Shane Parrish:而且没有错误的音符。如果有人弹了一个音符,那只是一个新的音符。它不是错误的音符。就像,好吧,我们换了调。我们就顺着这个走。来吧,我们继续。现在我们开始了。所以,在音乐中顺其自然的能力,你在商业中也需要具备。Shane,很多人有一个僵化的商业计划,详细规划了很多年,就这样了。它非常不灵活。那通常行不通。为什么?因为生活变化,市场变化,经济变化,人变化,结果变化。你会遇到一开始根本没想到的机会。所以你需要即兴发挥。你需要利用这一点并从中赚钱。如果你很僵化,如果你只是僵化思维,如果你不是音乐家,如果你不是一个有音乐感的商业人士,你会输的。
Original English
Shane Parrish: And there is no wrong note. If someone plays a note, that's just a new note. It's not the wrong note. It's like, okay, we changed key. Let's go with that. Come on, let's get going now. Now we're on. So, that ability to go with the flow in music, you need to have that in business. Shane, a lot of people have a rigid business plan that's spelled out for many years and that's it. And it's very nonflexible. That doesn't usually work. Why? Because life changes, markets change, economies change, people change, results change. You get opportunities that you hadn't even thought of at the beginning. So you need to improvise. You need to capitalize on that and to make money from that. And if you're rigid, if you're just rigid thinking, if you're not a musician, if you're not a musical business person, you're going to lose.
机会与转型
Brad Jacobs:机会会主动找上门来,让你为股东赚钱,感觉当然很好、很棒,但那其实不是我们的核心追求。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: opportunities. You're going to have things come your way to make money for shareholders and feel well it's nice it's great but it's really not our thing.
Brad Jacobs:嗯,那是一种错误的思维方式。我跟你们分享一个我人生中做过的最好的商业交易之一。2015年,我收购了一家整车运输公司,叫Conway,总部在密歇根州安娜堡。那是一笔几十亿美元的交易。这是一次转型,因为这是一个重资产业务,拥有数万辆卡车和司机。这是你能找到的最重资产的业务,固定成本、折旧和摊销都非常高。它不是轻资产的经纪业务——我创立XPO时就是做轻资产、非资产型业务的。但这里有一个机会,可以以非常便宜的价格买入一些东西,价格只是其价值的很小一部分,甚至是我知道我们能在短短几年内让它变得值钱的价值的极小一部分。这家公司有大量冗余的开销。组织架构图一点都不符合数学逻辑。回到对称性和公式化的思维,那种关系才说得通。我喜欢研究组织架构图。我就是喜欢钻研组织架构图。组织架构图应该是漂亮的。组织架构图应该简单、优雅、几何化。它们不应该像你把意大利面扔到画布上做成抽象艺术那样复杂。这张图就是一张糟糕的组织架构图。它有三个不同的人力资源部门,三个不同的IT组织,大量重复,完全说不通。还有很多孤岛,而且在非创收的上层组织非常臃肿——那本该是任何组织中最轻的部分。最重的部分应该是那些赚钱的、产生收入的、贴近客户的、产生销售的部分。所以,我看着那张组织架构图说:“这是一张混乱的组织架构图。”这对赚钱来说太棒了。如果你能找到混乱的东西,而且很容易把它理清,那就太好了,你的钱就在那里。那就是你赚大钱的机会。就是这样。我对此感到非常兴奋,我看到了一个可以显著提高利润率和现金流的方法,于是我转型了。我转型了,然后去做了这笔交易。市场把我骂得很惨。他们说:“哦,这是转型。”我说:“给我点时间。”我记得Eli Gross,他现在负责摩根士丹利的投行业务,但当时他负责覆盖XPO的运输业务,他说:“你知道,你会在狗窝里待一阵子,因为这是转型,市场不喜欢转型,但假设你是对的,我知道你有很高的信念,而且你最终会交出数字,你会成为这里的英雄,每个人都会理解你做了什么。”幸运的是,他和我都是对的。你看看那笔交易,尽管它是转型、是改变、是即兴发挥,我们花了大约30亿美元买下它。其中大约一半是股权。所以实际上我们是用15亿美元加上一些杠杆买下的。今天它价值大约150亿美元。这还是在我们从中拿走了大约50亿美元的净现金之后。这还是在我们卖掉了5.5亿美元的整车运输业务之后。这还是在我们把它的仓储业务、供应链业务(叫Menllo)放进了我们的GXO子公司之后。这还是在我们把经纪业务和我们的RXO经纪业务合并之后。所以,这是他们不断给予的礼物——Conway。这是一段令人惊叹的旅程。回报方面,我无法心算,但大概是20倍、15倍的投资回报率。这是巨大的投资资本回报。如果我没有受过音乐家和数学家的训练,我不知道我能不能看到这一点,Shane。我不知道如果我没有数学技能,我能不能看出“这是个烂摊子,但我们可以把它清理干净”。我不知道我有没有勇气去即兴发挥,去改变原有的剧本,去做一件我坚信会对股东非常非常有利可图的事情。在商业中,底线、成绩单,就是你为股东赚了多少钱?这就是唯一的考试,只有一道题。就是你让你的股东赚了多少?你为你的股东赚了多少钱?你在他们投入你的资本上给了他们多少回报?他们信任你。你在商业中是受托人。你有一种庄严、神圣的责任,你拿着别人的钱——债务和股权,尤其是股权——你是它的保管人。你只是暂时使用他们的钱,你的工作是让它增值。他们有一千个其他地方可以放这笔钱。他们选择了你。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: Well, that's a bad way of thinking. I'll share with you one of the best business deals I did in my life. I bought in 2015 a less-than-truckload trucking company called Conway, based in Ann Arbor, Michigan. It was a few billion dollar deal. It was a pivot because this was a hard asset business, had tens of thousands of trucks and drivers. It was as asset heavy as asset heavy business as you're going to get, with fixed costs and depreciation and amortization. It was not an asset light brokerage business, which is how I started XPO, as an asset light, non-asset based business. But here was an opportunity to buy something really, really cheaply at a small fraction of what it was worth, and even a smaller tiny fraction of what I knew we could make it be worth within a few short years. This is a company that had a lot of excess overhead. The organization chart was not mathematical. Going back to symmetry and formula things, that relationship makes sense. I love org charts. I just love to geek out on org charts. An org chart should be pretty. Org charts should be simple. They should be elegant. They should be geometrical. They should not be really complicated like you took some spaghetti and threw it like an abstract art on a canvas. This was a bad org chart. This had three different HRs and three different IT organizations and a lot of duplications and it just didn't make any sense. A lot of silos and heavy, heavy on the nonrevenue generating top part of the organization, which should be the lightest part of any organization. The heaviest part should be parts of the organization that make money, that generate revenue, that close to the customer, that generate sales. So I looked at that org chart and said, "This is a messed up org chart." Which is great for making money. If you can find something that's messed up and easy to unmess up, booyah, there's your money. There's your opportunity to make a lot of money. And that was it. I got so excited about the opportunity to take this company and I saw a way we could significantly grow the profit margin, the cash flow, that I pivoted. I pivoted and go ahead and do the deal. I got beat up real bad by the market. They said, "Oh, it's a change." And I said, "Give me some time." And I remember Eli Gross, who now runs investment banking from Morgan Stanley. But at the time he was covering XPO as a transportation banker, and he said, "You know, you're going to be in the doghouse here for a little while because it's a pivot and markets don't like pivots, but assuming you're right, and I know you have high conviction and you deliver the numbers over time, you're going to be a hero here and everyone's going to understand what you did." And fortunately, he and I were right. And you look at that deal, even though it was a pivot, it was a change, it was an improvisation, we bought it for about $3 billion. Roughly half of it was equity. So really bought it for a billion and a half dollars plus with some leverage. Today it's worth something like $15 billion. And that's after having taken out many like $5 billion of net cash from it. That's after selling off $550 million of the truckload business. That's after taking its warehouse business, its supply chain business, which was called Menllo, and putting that into our GXO subsidiary. That was after taking the brokerage business and putting that with our RXO brokerage business. So this was the gift they kept giving, Conway. It's been an amazing, amazing ride. And the returns, it's been something like a 20 bagger, 15 bagger. There would be huge, huge return on invested capital. And had I not been trained as a musician and a mathematician, I don't know that I would have saw it, Shane. I don't know if I didn't have the mathematical skills, I would have been able to see, okay, this is a mess but we can make it clean. I don't know if I would have been able to have the courage to improvise and to change from what the script was, for something that I had a high conviction would be very, very lucrative for our shareholders. And in business, the bottom line, the report card, is how much money did you generate for your shareholders? That's the one. It's an examination with one question on it. It's how much did you make your stockholders? How much money did you make for your stockholders? How much bliss did you give to your investors in terms of return on their capital they invested in you? They trusted you with. You're a fiduciary in business. You have a solemn, sacred obligation, responsibility, where you're taking other people's money, debt and equity, particularly the equity, and you're the custodian for that. You're a custodian of it, that you're temporarily using their money and your job is to multiply that. They have a thousand other places they could put that money. They've picked you.
Shane:是的。
Original English
Shane: Yeah.
Brad Jacobs:他们选择了你。现在你有了一个重大责任。我认为数学家的训练、音乐家的训练,以及我在冥想和治疗方面做的所有这些实验,我认为这在很大程度上解释了——至少就我所能理解的——为什么我的公司创造了这么多超额收益。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: They picked you. Now you've got a big, big responsibility. And I think the training of a mathematician, the training of a musician, and then all these experimentations I've done in meditation and therapy and so forth, I think that's been what largely explains, at least as far as I can understand, why my companies have created so much alpha.
复杂中的机会与杠杆
Shane:我有太多想深入探讨的方向了。我觉得“隐藏在复杂性中的机会”这个想法非常有趣,因为我的思考方式是这样的——如果我的看法不同,请纠正我——坏主意很容易藏在复杂性中,但它们无法藏在简单性中。你对此有什么反应?
Original English
Shane: I have so many rabbit holes I want to go down there. I think the opportunity hiding in complexity is really interesting, because the way that I think about this, and correct me if you see it differently, is bad ideas can easily hide in complexity, but they can't hide in simplicity. What's your reaction to that?
Brad Jacobs:我需要消化一下。我第一反应是,是的,我想我理解这一点,因为当事情……让我回到我在Conway看到的那张组织架构图。那真是一团糟。就像,“哇,到处都是。三重虚线、弯弯曲曲的线,你还需要用不同的颜色来区分。”这就像,那不是真正的优雅。是的,我想我明白你的意思。在那种情况下,你可以隐藏低效率,而如果是一张干净的组织架构图,每个人都有清晰的KPI(关键绩效指标),每个人都有明确的度量标准,每个人有清晰的目标,薪酬与这些挂钩,人们因实现这些目标而获得奖励。是的,那就很难隐藏了。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: I need to digest it. My immediate reaction is, yeah, I think I get that, because when it's... so I'll go back to that organization chart that I saw at Conway. It was just a mess. It was like, "Wow, it's all over the place. Triple dotted lines and squiggly lines and you had to have different colors and different." It's like, that's not real elegant. Yeah, I think I see what you're saying. In that you could hide inefficiencies, as opposed to when it's a clean organization chart. Everyone's got clear KPIs, key performance indicators. Everyone has clear metrics, everyone has clear goals, and the compensation is tied to that, and people are rewarded for achieving those goals. Yeah, it's hard to hide.
Shane:我觉得另一个非常有趣的点是你提到的杠杆。你如何看待杠杆和债务,以及如何运用它们?在什么情况下会变得过于冒险?还有,你什么时候会考虑未来的机会成本?你提到要利用世界带来的一切,但如果你现在为了收购承担太多债务,你就削弱了未来适应变化的能力——如果利率上升,或者出现一家你真正想要的公司,一个在你承担所有这些债务时还不存在的梦想目标,那怎么办?你是怎么考虑这些的?
Original English
Shane: The other thing that I thought was really interesting is you brought up the leverage point. How do you think about leverage and debt and employing it? And at what point does it become too risky? And at what point do you think of future opportunity costs? You mentioned sort of taking advantage of whatever the world brings, but if you take on too much debt at now for an acquisition, you're reducing your ability to adapt in the future, should interest rates rise, should a company become available that you really want, that's a dream that wasn't available when you took on all the debt. How do you think about that?
Brad Jacobs:我对债务有一种禅宗佛教的态度。不要太多,也不要太少。我不认为完全没有债务是最优的资产负债表,因为你可以通过减少股本来改善回报——因为你的股份更少了。所以同样的回报总额,每股回报更高,因为股份更少。所以我认为有一点杠杆是好的。我不认为你应该有大量杠杆,尤其是在当今世界。我不认为你应该有大量杠杆,因为存在重大的地缘政治风险。中东、乌克兰、台湾都有地缘政治风险。美国政治也非常动荡。有很多事情可能很快出错,对系统的一种冲击会伤害那些债务过多的公司,因为业务会放缓。看看新冠期间发生了什么。如果你在新冠期间杠杆率非常高,如果你有太多债务,然后一切都放缓了,你的收入下降了,你可能就无法支付利息或……
Original English
Brad Jacobs: I have a Zen Buddhist approach to debt. Not too much, not too little. I don't think it's an optimal balance sheet if you have no debt, because you can improve the returns by shrinking your share account, because you have fewer shares. So the same amount of returns is greater per share because you have fewer shares. So I think it's good to have a little bit of leverage. I don't think you should have a lot of leverage, particularly in today's world. I don't think you should have a lot of leverage, because there's significant geopolitical risk. There's geopolitical risk in the Middle East, in Ukraine, in Taiwan. There's the United States politics is very volatile. There's a lot of things that could go wrong real quick, and a kind of shock to the system would hurt companies that have too much debt, because business would slow down. Look what happened during COVID. If you were very highly levered during COVID, if you had way too much debt and then everything slowed down and your revenues went down, you might not have been able to make your interest payments or your...
债务与杠杆管理
Speaker A: 债务偿还、还款,否则就可能破产。公司不会破产,除非它们背负了太多债务。
Original English
Speaker A: Debt repayment payments and could have gone bankrupt. Companies don't go bankrupt unless they have too much debt.
Speaker B: 你会因为无法偿还债务而破产。所以我认为你不应该有太多债务。在我正在组建的新公司 QXO,我认为我们的目标——一个健康的目标——应该是一到两倍的债务杠杆。我的意思是,我们拿我们的 EBIDA(即现金流衡量指标),然后说让我们保持一到两倍的杠杆。所以如果我们的 EBIDA 最终比如在某段时间内是十亿美元,那就让我们有十亿或二十亿美元的债务。这是一个舒适的水平。不要比这多太多。当然,在短期内,你可以加杠杆,比如我收购 Conway 的时候,我们杠杆到了大约四倍,甚至略超四倍,但我们很快就把资产卖掉了。我提到过把整车运输部门以 5.5 亿美元卖掉。砰!我们立刻用那笔钱还掉了一大堆债务。我们产生了大量自由现金流。我们没有用那些自由现金流去做更多收购,而是用来偿还债务。所以你可以通过两种方式之一来控制杠杆:要么提高利润、增加 IBIDA,要么偿还你的实际债务总额。我认为这是可以管理的。这就是一个好的 CFO 该做的事。
Original English
Speaker B: You go bankrupt from not being able to repay your debt. So I don't think you should have too much debt. In my new company that I'm forming at QXO, we're going to have I think our target a healthy target should be one to two turns of debt. By that I mean we take our our our EBIDA which is a measure of our cash flow and and we say let's have one or two turns of that. So if our EBIDA ends up being for instance in a period of time for example a billion dollars well let's have one or two billion dollars of debt. That's that's a comfortable amount. Not too much more than that. Now, you could have for short periods of time, you could lever up like when I bought Conway, we levered up to about four times, a little more than four times, but we very quickly sold off. I mentioned that truckload division for $550 million. Boom. We paid down a whole bunch of debt right from that. We generated a lot of free cash flow. We took that free cash flow instead of doing more acquisitions, we paid down debt. So you can get your leverage under control by one of two ways. By improving your profits, by increasing your IBIDA, or by paying down your actual gross amount of debt. And I I think you can manage that. And that's uh that's something a good CFO does.
广告插播:Madic 吸尘器与 Element 电解质饮品
Speaker B: 让我告诉你过去五年里我用过的最好的新产品。那就是 Madic 吸尘器。这个东西能吸尘,能拖地。Madic 什么都能做。其他机器人会撞到东西,但 Madic 能看见东西。它真的能避开障碍物,而且 Madic 会自动在我的地毯表面和硬木地板之间调整。它也非常容易设定日程。我让它每晚在我睡觉时运行,每天早上我醒来时地板都是干净的。意外总会发生,当它们发生时,Madic 就会行动起来。今天就访问 madak robots.com,让 Madak 为你工作。
Original English
Speaker B: Let me tell you about the best new product that I've used in the past 5 years. It's the Madic vacuum. This thing vacuums. It mops. Madic does everything. Other robots bump into things, but the Madic sees things. It actually avoids the problems and the Madic automatically adjusts between my carpeted surfaces and my hardwood floors. It's also super easy to schedule. I have it run every night while I'm in bed and every morning I wake up to clean floors. Messes happen and when they do, Madic rolls into action. Go to madak robots.com today and put Madak to work for you.
Speaker B: 有没有经历过下午三点感觉大脑突然停工?对很多人来说,那不是咖啡因或睡眠的问题,而是电解质。光喝水解决不了。这就是为什么我每天午饭后都喝 Element。零糖、没有可疑成分,只有实实在在的钠、钾和镁。我知道你们都在想电解质是给运动员用的,但你不需要成为运动员才能从中受益,而且它味道很好。在 drinklement.com/tkp 购买任何产品,即可免费获得一份 8 支装样品包,让你在下午保持敏锐。网址是 drinklnt.com/tkp。
Original English
Speaker B: Ever hit 3 p.m. and feel like your brain just quit? For a lot of people, that's not caffeine or sleep. It's electrolytes. And water alone won't fix it. That's why I drink Element every day after lunch. Zero sugar, no dodgy ingredients, just a real dose of sodium, potassium, and magnesium. I know you're all thinking electrolytes are for athletes, but you don't have to be an athlete to benefit from it, and it tastes great. Stay sharp in the afternoon and grab a free 8-count sample pack with any purchase at drinklement.com/tkp. That's drinklnt.com/tkp.
逆向思维与个人风格
Speaker A: 你过去说过你需要被人喜欢和爱戴,但你在处理事情的方式上有时又相当逆向。你如何调和这两件事?
Original English
Speaker A: You've said in the past that you need to be liked and loved and yet you're quite contrarian at times in your approach to things. How do you reconcile these two things?
Speaker B: 我认为你必须逆向思考。我认为如果你想在商业中赚很多钱,你不能只是一个随大流的人,去做那些时髦的、别人都在想的事情。如果你要做别人都在想的事,你就会得到别人都能得到的回报,那按定义就是平庸。所以,我的公司没有取得平庸的回报。我的公司跑赢了大盘指数,不是一两个基点,而是有时达到指数的五到六倍。所以你必须——你必须以不同的方式思考,从不同的角度看待事物。我最喜欢的投资我公司的投资者之一是加州的 Orbus,还有百慕大的,他们是逆向投资者。他们愿意下注,如果他们对某个趋势或公司有高度信念,而市场没有看到,他们就会下重注。有些东西不受青睐,但市场不了解某些情况——也许一家公司研究得不够,覆盖得不够。也许管理层不善于传达他们的故事,于是出现了错位。价格错位了,你可以通过买入那些股票获得真正好的价值,然后保持耐心,等待周期走完,获得真正好的回报。我见过他们在我公司身上这样做——当市场上发生了什么事,让我们在短期内成为一只便宜的股票。砰!他们进来了,买了很多股票,推高了价格,然后在高位卖出。我认为这种逆向价值投资方法对商业来说是深刻的。我认为这很重要。我记得当我卖掉我的第一家公司 Amarax——我的老经纪公司时。我们 1979 年创办了一家公司。一群身无分文、干劲十足的毛头小子。我们恰好在正确的时间出现在正确的地点。然后伊朗革命爆发了,国王被赶下台,霍梅尼上台,他们扣押了 400 名人质,油价一路飙升。所以那是一个很好的时机。对世界来说那是一个悲伤的时刻。有很多混乱和问题。但进入石油行业确实很好,因为石油行业波动很大,像我们这样的年轻后生可以进来,被埃克森、美孚、德士古、壳牌、海湾和 BP 以及所有那些最终成为我们大客户的客户认真对待。我们在短短四年内把那个业务做到了略低于 50 亿美元的经纪量。那是一个非常陡峭的快速增长曲线,我有一支优秀的团队在全球做这件事。然后我把它卖了,我想开始一项新业务,我很有野心。我当时单身,没结婚,没有孩子。我可以冒险。我承担得起。我记得和我叔叔 Howard 谈过,愿他安息。他很久以前就去世了。我叔叔 Howard 出生在 1920 年代,甚至可能更早,显然在大萧条时期长大,然后是二战时期等等,那是非常艰难的时期。所以他非常——你知道,他成长在一个非常强调节俭和规避风险的时代。他成了一名会计师,为政府工作。我记得和他谈话时说:“是啊,我要再开一家公司。不再是石油经纪人,我要去——我要去大人的桌子,而不是小孩的桌子。我要成为一名石油交易员,因为我一直在为我的客户赚这么多钱——他们每桶赚三、四、五美元,而我每桶只赚五到十美分。”当然,我没有风险,但他们在持仓。我说:“现在,我要把我的钱放在我说话的地方。我要把我的钱存进银行。我要拿到信用证,我要真正地买进卖出,而不仅仅是做经纪。”你说:“哦,Brad,别那样做。别那样做。你应该也许拿一小部分积蓄投入你的新业务,但把你绝大部分的钱藏起来,以防下一件事不成功。”幸运的是,我没有听我叔叔的话——我必须按他说的做。我做了完全相反的事。我采取了完全逆向的立场——我拿了大概 10 万美元,或者最多 20 万美元,把那笔钱拿出来。我把我其余所有的钱都存进了 Perry 银行,现在它叫 BMP Perry Bar。当时它叫 Perry,他们给了我十亿美元的信用额度,我全力挥棒。我有时会用掉那条信用额度里高达 9.9 亿美元,做对销贸易交易、做预融资交易、做易货贸易、做加工交易——那些非常复杂的交易。回到数学上,非常非常复杂,但有条理。我知道我在做什么。有时人们会看着它说:“哇,你做的事情里有很多元素。你在买它,你在运它,你在精炼它,你在对冲它。那里有很多很多活动部件。”我说:“是啊,但我理解每一个部件,对我来说那只是数学,我实际上觉得这是低风险的。这基本上只是执行风险,我很乐意承担其中的执行风险部分。我没有市场风险,虽然看起来我有,但实际上我没有。”由于没有听从他的建议,采取了逆向立场,并且有勇气、胆量和力量去——
Original English
Speaker B: I think you have to be contrarian. I think if you want to make a lot of money in business, you can't just be a conformist to do what is in in fashion and what everybody else thinks. If you're going to do what everyone else thinks, you're going to get returns that everyone else gets, which is by definition average. So, my companies have not made average returns. My companies have outperformed their indexes not by one or 200 basis points, but sometimes by five or six times what what the index was. So you have to do you have to think differently and take things that are from a different point of view. So one of my favorite investors in my companies has been Orbus uh out in California and and in Bermuda and they're contrarians. They're willing to make a bet and a significant bet if they have a high conviction about a trend or a company that the market's not seeing. Something's out of favor, but the market doesn't understand something about a maybe a company's not studied enough. It's not covered enough. Maybe management is not good at communicating their story and and it's dislocated. The price is dislocated and you can get a real good value by buying those shares and then being patient, playing it out the cycle and make real good returns. And I've seen them do that with my companies when something happened in the marketplace that made us uh a cheap stock for for a short period of time. Boom. They came in, they bought a lot of shares and wrote them up and then sold there really really high. I think that contrarian value approach to investing to business is is profound. I think that's important. And I remember I remember when I sold my first company, Amarax, my old brokerage company. We' started a company in 1979. Bunch of broke scrappy kids. And we're in the right place at the right time. and the Iranian revolution took place and the shah got kicked out and Khomeini came in and they took 400 hostages and and the oil prices went way way way up. So it was a great time. It was sad time for the world. There's a lot of lot of chaos and pro problems. But it was really good to get in the oil business because oil business was really volatile and some young whippersnappers like us could come in and be taken seriously by Exxon and Mobil and Texaco and Shell and Gulf and BP and all the customers that became our big customers over time. And we built that business up over four quick years to about a little under five billion dollars in brokerage volume. So that's it was really big rapid rapid growth curve and I had good team doing that around the world. And then I sold it and I wanted to start a new business and I wanted and I was ambitious. I was single. I wasn't married. Didn't have kids. I could take risk. I could afford to do that. And I was remember speaking with my my uncle Howard and uh may he rest in peace. He's long long passed away. uh and of course my uncle Howard was born in the 1920s maybe even late late 19s and grew up in the depression obviously and uh during world during World War II and so forth and it was very tough times. So he's very you know he grew up in a time when there's a lot of emphasis towards being very frugal and very risk-averse. He became an accountant and worked for the government. And I remember talking to him and saying, "Yeah, I'm going to I'm going to start another company. Instead of being an oil broker, I'm going to I'm going to go to the I'm going to go to the adult table instead of the kitty table. I'm going to I'm going to be an oil trader because I've been I've been making all this money for my clients where they're making three, four, five dollars a barrel and I'm making five or 10 cents a barrel." Of course, I had no risk, but they were taking positions. I said, "Now, I'm going to I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. I'm gonna put my money into into a bank. I'm gonna get a letter of credit and I'm gonna actually buy and sell as opposed to just broker." You say, "Oh, Brad, don't do that. Don't do that." You should maybe take a small percent of your savings and put it into your new business, but take the vast majority of your money and just tuck it away just in case the next thing doesn't work out. And fortunately, I overruled my uncle and I had to go with what he said. I did exactly the opposite. I took a completely contrarian position where I took I think it was like $100,000 or maybe at most $200,000 and I took that away. I took all the rest of my money. I deposited with Bank Perry and now it's BMP Perry Bar. Back then it was Perry and they gave me a billion dollar line of credit and I swung for the fences. I I used sometimes up to $990 million of that line of credit doing counter trade deals, doing pre-finance deals, doing barter, doing processing deals, deals that I they were very complex. Going back to the math, very very complex, but organized. I knew what I was doing. And sometimes people would look at it and say, "Wow, there's a lot of elements to what you're doing there. You're buying it, you're shipping it, you're refining it, you're hedging it. There's a lot a lot of moving parts there." said, "Yeah, but I understand each one of these parts and it's just math to me and I actually feel this is low risk. This is basically just execution risk and I'm comfortable taking on the execution risk part of it. I don't have market risk, even though it looked like I did, but I really didn't." And and as a result of not taking his advice and taking contrarian position and having the courage or the guts and the the strength to
父亲的直言与自信的萌芽
Brad(受访者): 我相信我所想做的事,我有一个想法,并且我有勇气说:“好,我要顺着这个想法跑下去。我要走下去。我要赌在自己身上。我要赌在这个想法上。”我们建立了一家非常不错的石油贸易公司,为我们自己和我们的股东都做得非常好。
Original English
Brad (Interviewee): I believe in what I wanted to do, that I had a thought and I had the courage to say, "Okay, I'm going to run with this thought. I'm going to go with this. I'm going to bet on myself. I'm going to bet on this idea." We built a really nice oil trading company and did very, very well for ourselves and for our shareholders.
Shane(采访者): 那种自信是从哪里来的?
Original English
Shane (Interviewer): Where did that confidence come from?
Brad(受访者): 嗯,我不知道。可能自信是在年轻的时候就形成的,我想。所以当你问这样的问题时,通常你会开始想,你妈妈说了什么?你爸爸说了什么?
Original English
Brad (Interviewee): Well, I don't know. Probably confidence comes at a young age, I would think. So, when you ask a question like that, you know, normally you start thinking about like what did your mother say? What did your father say?
Shane(采访者): 是啊。
Original English
Shane (Interviewer): Yeah.
Brad(受访者): 所以,如果我必须回想我妈妈说了什么、我爸爸说了什么,那真的是具有变革性的。首先浮现在我脑海里的,是关于我爸爸的事。我爱他,也非常尊敬他。他是一个很棒的父亲,一个非常诚实的人,也是一个非常尽责、善于养家的好父亲。但他说话非常直率。他说话不太委婉。他就是想到什么说什么,说出他真正的想法。我记得有一次,我们刚办完一件差事,正开车回家。他坐在驾驶座上,我坐在副驾驶座上。在一个红绿灯前,我父亲转过身来对我说——他是个大个子,声音低沉,笑声爽朗——他说:“布拉德利。”我爸妈是唯一叫我“布拉德利”的人,认识我的人都叫我“布拉德”。他说:“布拉德利,你有个很好的性格,这真的很好,因为你肯定不可能靠这张脸有什么出息。”我笑得很响。那一刻对我来说是一个深刻的时刻,因为一方面,我崩溃了。我当时大概13岁。13岁的时候你不会知道自己长得好看还是难看。你就是你。你就是那个样子。你根本不会去想那件事。但我从父亲那里得到的信息是,我可能不是一个好看的人。好吧。另一方面,他给我的另一个信息是:“但你有领导才能。你有性格。你有魅力。你能让人们追随你。你可以成为班里的班长。你可以成为小组的组长。你可以成为乐队的主唱,等等。你可以成为学生会主席。不管怎样,尽管你——在他看来——长得不好看,不漂亮,你仍然能够成为一个领导者,完成事情,把事情做成,组建团队,带动人们。”所以我认为,以一种非常矛盾的方式,我父亲那次对我的“侮辱”给了我自信。它给了我一种自信:好吧,也许我没有那种典型的美式英俊外表。那又怎样?我有别的东西。在领导能力方面,我有一些东西。所以也许那帮助我建立了自信,因为那是我一生中反复回味的一次经历。我父亲,因为父亲对你的看法、母亲对你的看法,是件大事。
Original English
Brad (Interviewee): So, if I had to think about what did my mother say, what did my father say, that was very transformational. The first things that would pop my mind are with my dad who I loved and I had a lot of respect for and he was a great dad and a very honest person and he was a very dedicated and good provider for the family. But he was very blunt in what he said. He wasn't very diplomatic what he say. He just said what he really thought. And I remember one time when we were doing an errand. We're driving home and he was in the driver's seat. And I was in the passenger seat and we're at a stoplight and my father turned to me and said and he was a big guy with a low voice and you know big laugh and said Bradley and my mom and dad were the only people ever called me Bradley but anyone who knows me calls me Brad but he said Bradley it's really good that you have a really good personality because you're certainly not going to get anywhere with those looks. I laughed real real loud. And that moment was a deep moment for me because on the one hand, I was crushed. I was like 13 years old. You don't know whether you're good-looking or ugly when you're 13 years old. You just are. You just are what you are. You just don't even think about that. But the message I was getting from my father was, you know, I may not be such a good-looking guy. Okay. On the other hand, the other message he was giving me was, "But you have leadership skills. You have personality. You have charisma. You can get people to follow you. You can become the president of your class. You can become your group leader. You can be the leader of your band and so forth. You can be president of the student council. And somehow or another despite your what he considered bad not pretty appearances, not beautiful appearance, you were able to be a leader and accomplish things and get stuff done and get form teams and get people." So I think in a very paradoxical kind of way my father insulting me on that gave me confidence. It gave me confidence of okay so maybe I don't have great all-American good looks. Who cares? I've got something else. I've got something in terms of being able to lead. So maybe that helped give me confidence because that's an experience that I've relived many times over my life. My father because it's a big deal what your father thinks of you what your mother thinks of you.
母亲临终的认可
Brad(受访者): 在我母亲这边,如果我要想是什么给了我很多自信,我妈妈——好吧,我妈妈大约在10到11年前去世了。你知道,在书里,我喜欢问人们的一个问题——这是我从积极心理学之父马丁·塞利格曼那里学到的——是“你一天中最快乐的时刻是什么?”而不是“你今天过得怎么样?”
Original English
Brad (Interviewee): On my mother's side, if I had to think what was something that gave me a lot of confidence, my mother. Okay, so my mom passed away about 10, 11 years ago and you know from the book one of the questions I like to ask people because I learned this from Marty Seligman the father of positive psychology is what's the happiest moment of your day as opposed to how did your day go.
Shane(采访者): 这个问题确实有一个稍微不同的角度。我们都喜欢被认可。我们喜欢感觉自己被欣赏。我们被认可。我们被理解。我们被赞同,尤其是来自父母的赞同。
Original English
Shane (Interviewer): And just have a little different angle to that question. And we like to be validated. We like to feel we're appreciated. We're recognized. We're understood. We're approved of, particularly from our parents.
Brad(受访者): 我妈妈临终前,我哥哥、姐姐和我陪在她床边,待了整整几个星期。我不知道你是否见过临终的人,但你知道,他们好像快要死了,然后突然醒过来,像没事一样跟你说话,好像什么都没发生。然后又躺下,继续死去。他们就这样进进出出,半死不活的状态。我妈妈一直躺在那里,呼吸很奇怪。临终的人呼吸方式很奇怪,不是正常的呼吸,是不规律的呼吸。然后会有一段时间不呼吸。那是一次非常奇异的经历,死亡。我们不太确定这是不是就是终点。我们是不是再也不能说话了。她是不是就这样结束了。然后她突然坐了起来。她看着我们三个人的眼睛,说:“你们每个人都成长得这么好,我真的很高兴。”
Original English
Brad (Interviewee): And my mom was on her deathbed. And my brother and sister and I were hanging out on her deathbed for a good couple weeks. And I don't know if you've been around people who have died, but you know they're sort of dying and then suddenly they wake up and like talking to you like nothing's going no problem. And then they lie down again and start dying again and they go in and out and it's kind of half dying and half not dying so forth. And my mother had been lying there and like breathing funny when they're dying. It's like really strange way of breathing. It's not normal way of breathing, irregular breathing. And then not breathing for periods of time. And it was a very bizarre experience, death. And we didn't quite know whether this was it. Like we're never going to talk again. She's done. And she suddenly like sat up. She looked all three of us in the eye and said, "I'm really happy each of you turned out so well."
Brad(受访者): 然后带着母亲的爱微笑着。然后只是优雅地躺下,继续她的死亡过程。但那个时刻,可能是我一生中最快乐的时刻。当我妈妈——那个我从她身体里出来的女人,那个从第一天起就照顾我的人,甚至从第一天之前,从我出生前九个月就开始了——认可了我,肯定了我,给了我一个认可的印记。那给了我自信,即使那是在我生命的后期。那给了我一个巨大的推动。那正好是在我创办XP物流公司的时候。在我创办的所有公司中,那是迄今为止最大、最成功的一家。所以,我想说,我生命后期的自信,来自于我母亲给我们的那个认可的推动。
Original English
Brad (Interviewee): And smiled with a mother's love. And then just kind of gracefully lied down and continued the dying process. But that moment that might be the happiest moment of my life when my mother, my mom, the person whose body I came out of, the person who took care of me from young right from day one, even before day one, nine months before day one, approved of me and validated me and gave me a stamp of approval and that's given me confidence even though that's later in life. That gave me a boost. That was right at the beginning of starting XP Logistics, which of all the different companies I've started, that was the one that was the biggest so far, the most successful. So, I would say that confidence later in life came from that boost that my mother gave me of just approving of us.
将人生感悟应用于商业管理
Brad(受访者): 顺便说一句,我从那件事中学到了一些东西。我从那件事中学到了一些东西。我试着从所有这些经历中学习,看看如何将它们应用到商业中,因为我是一个商人。我要为股东赚钱。那是我人生的目标。所以我在人生中学到的所有这些事情,我都会试着把它们拿来应用到商业中,为股东赚钱。那么我从那件事中学到了什么?我学到的是,父母与孩子之间的关系——在这个例子里是我妈妈和我,或者另一个例子是我爸爸和我——是一种非常重要的经历。权威人物对一个人的看法,对这个人有巨大的影响。当你在商业中,特别是如果你是CEO,你就是那个权威人物。你有点像父亲。你有点像母亲——在我的情况里,是15万名员工的母亲。你必须小心你说的话。而且不仅仅是你说什么,Shane。你不能只是假装。如果你不喜欢某人或不同意某人的观点,你不能就说“哦,是啊,你不是很好吗?”因为人们很聪明。人们能意识到你什么时候在忽悠他们。他们就是知道。他们知道什么时候是虚伪的,他们也知道什么时候是真诚的。所以,我学到的是,你必须重新调整你的大脑。回到那本书,你必须重新调整你的大脑,你的思维方式,让你对人持积极态度,因为没有人是全好或全坏的。至少我认识的人里没有。如果你能训练自己看到一个人身上真正的优点,并把它反映给他们,并确保当你在做改变的部分、改进的部分,当你给他们建设性的反馈,告诉他们如何能做得更好时,那要放在第二步。不要先做那件事。第一件事是像我妈妈那样,说:“你知道,我就是很高兴你们都成长得这么好。”先那样说。你知道,当我做绩效评估时,对我的直接下属,我的汇报对象,我总是从积极的方面开始。我不会一上来就说:“好吧,这里有一些你做砸了的事情,你需要做得更好。”对话的那部分也很重要,因为你需要帮助这个人取得更多成就,做得更好。但你想要这样开始对话:“我真的想祝贺你做了某某事。我真的想表达我的感激。我想表达我的欣赏,因为你做了一、二、三。”但这必须是真诚的。不能是虚伪的、空洞的、虚假的奉承。那样的话,你不如什么都不说,也比给出虚假的赞美要好。但你应该——我试着重新调整我的大脑,让我欣赏一个人,并且……
Original English
Brad (Interviewee): By the way, I've learned something from that. I've learned something from that. And I try to learn from all these things how I can apply this to business because I'm a business person. I'm trying to make money for shareholders. That's my goal in life. So all these things that I'm going through life learning about, I'm then trying to take them and apply them to business to make money for shareholders. So what did I learn from that? I learned that the relationship between a parent, in this case, my mom and me or in the other example, my dad and me, it's a real important experience. Has a big influence on the person, what the authority figure thinks about the person. And when you're in business, particularly if you're the CEO, you're the authority figure. You are kind of like the dad. You are kind of like the mom of, in my case, 150,000 employees. And you have to be careful what you say. And it's not just what you say, Shane. You can't just be you can't fake it. And if you don't like someone or disagree with somebody, like say, "Oh, yeah. Aren't you great?" Because people are smart. People realize when you're BSing them. They just know that. They know when it's phony and they know when it's real, too. So, what I've learned is you've got to rearrange your brain. Going back to the book, you got to rearrange your brain, your way of thinking so that you are positive about people because nobody's all good and nobody's all bad. No one I know at least. And if you can train yourself to see the real good in someone and to reflect that to them and to make sure when you're doing the change part, the improvement part, when you're giving them constructive feedback of how they could be doing a better job, do that second. Don't do that first. First thing is be like my mom and say, you know, I'm just so happy how well you all turned out. Say that first. You know, when I do performance appraisals, when I do performance reviews, my direct subordinates, my reports, my direct reports, I always start out with the positive stuff. I don't start right off with, okay, here's some things that you're messing up that you need to be doing better. It's important to have that part of the conversation, too, because you need to help the person achieve more and do better. But you want to start the conversation with, I really want to congratulate you for XYZ. I really want to appreciate. I want to express my appreciation because you've done one, two, and three. But it's got to be sincere. It can't be phony baloney false flattery. That is like you're better off not saying anything than giving phony compliments. But you should I try to rearrange my brain so I appreciate a person and...
从“为什么聘用”出发,给出具体而真诚的赞美
主持人:比如说,“嗯,我当初为什么要聘用这个人?我欣赏这个人什么?我敬佩什么?我尊重什么?是什么真正让我对他们评价这么高?”然后把那转化成:“好,这些品质是如何在他们做过的事情中体现出来的?他们具体做了哪些事?”不是那种泛泛的赞美,而是非常具体、实在的赞美,比如:“你做了这个、这个和这个。干得漂亮,脱帽致敬。好,这件事做得很好。”
Original English
Host: Say, "Well, why did I hire this person in the first place? What did I love in this person? What did I admire? What did I respect? What really got me made them real high in my estimation?" And then translate that to, "Okay, how is that materialized in what they've done and what concrete things have they done?" Not have compliments that are just like general compliments, but have very specific concrete compliments of, you know, "You did this, this, and this. Kudos, tip of the hat. Good. Good job on that."
主持人:而且,嗯,这又回到了“先肯定,再质疑;先融入,再引领”的心理学。我把这套方法应用到商业中。我在商业世界里对客户也是这么做的。你知道,我们有过成千上百万的客户。他们并不总是满意的,因为没有哪家服务提供商是完美的。偶尔你会搞砸一些事情,然后你就得和客户进行一场艰难的对话。也许他们没有受过“重新编排你大脑”的训练,他们直接就开骂了。他们跳过了“嘿,我们真的很喜欢你们在这里做的事情”这整个部分,直接就进入“该死,你们这个迟了”或者“你们把那个弄坏了”或者“你们的发票一团糟”之类的。而我从这一切中学到的,来回答你的问题,就是我必须去共情。我必须先把我的思想放进他们的思想里。我必须设身处地。我必须清楚地想象我们做的事情到底给他们的供应链造成了多大混乱,或者让他们花了多少钱,或者让某个人丢了工作,或者只是让人感到烦扰,或者只是增加了他们的时间成本,让他们沮丧,诸如此类。我必须弄清楚是什么在困扰他们,回到“他们在说什么,他们在感受什么”。所以我必须与他们的感受同步,我必须向他们表明我听到了他们,我感受到了他们。我既听到了、理解了他们的言语,也感受到了他们的情绪,而且我明白这些,并且我有一个行动计划来解决它。所以这一切是有顺序的。
Original English
Host: And uh, I, I, it goes back to the psychology of validate, then dispute, join, then lead. I apply that to business. I do that with customers in the world of business. You know, we've had millions and millions of customers. They're not always happy because we're not—no service provider is perfect. Once in a while, you mess stuff up and you have a difficult conversation with a customer. Maybe they're not trained in rearranging your brain and they go right into the insults. They skip the whole part about, "Hey, we really like what you were doing here." They just go right to, "Darn it, you've been late on this" or "You've been damaging that" or "Your invoicing is messed up" or whatever it is. And what I learned from all that, to answer your question, is I've got to empathize with that. I've got to first—I have to put my mind in their mind. I've got to put myself in their shoes. I've got to really picture clearly how much what we did messed up their supply chain or cost them money or cost someone a job or whatever, or just cost someone annoyance, or just made it difficult, shot up their time, and made them frustrated or whatever. I have to figure out what's upsetting them, going back to what are they saying and what are they feeling. So I've got to get in tune with how they're feeling, and I've got to show them that I've heard them, I've felt them. I've both heard and understood what they said, and I've also felt the emotion that they're feeling, and that I get that, and that I have an action plan to solve it. So that is a sequence to all that.
只给负面反馈是误区:平衡与“奥利奥”式会议收尾
主持人:我喜欢你这种以人为本的处理方式。有很多人可能把正面反馈视为理所当然,所以他们只给共事的人提供负面反馈。那是一个盲点吗?或者你怎么看这件事?
Original English
Host: I like your human centric approach to this. There's a lot of people who sort of take for granted maybe positive feedback, and so they offer negative only feedback to the people who they work with. Is that a blind spot or what do you think of that?
嘉宾:我认为那是个错误。我认为只给正面反馈或只给负面反馈都是错误的。举个例子,现在我正在进行绩效评估,每个人要写下三件他们真正引以为傲、在过去几个月里取得成就的事情,他们对此感觉很好,那是一项成就,绝对是加分项,不是负面的;但同时也要写下三件我们本可以做得更好、或者未来会做得更好的事情,那些我们没能完全实现、但希望实现的事情。所以这是一种平衡,三件好事,三件坏事。但当我主持会议时,我喜欢把它做得像一块奥利奥饼干。我喜欢把好的放在外面,负面的夹在中间,但最后以好的收尾。你如何结束一场会议非常重要,不管出于什么心理原因,你结束会议的方式会极大地影响那个人离开会议时的心情。所以理想情况下,即使我们开了一场艰难的会议,我们说:“看,这些数字是红的,不是黑的。这些数字在下降,不是在上升。我们需要提升我们的表现。这是我们的行动计划。这是我们如何让自己负责的方式。这是我们如何调整薪酬来奖励做得更好的人,以及如果他们没有快速改进,就会削减他们的奖金,甚至取消他们的奖金。”有些艰难的对话是你必须进行的。但我不喜欢以那种方式结束。
Original English
Guest: I think it's a mistake. I think it's a mistake to give only positive feedback or only negative feedback. So, for example, right now I'm in the middle of performance appraisals, and each person is writing three things that they're really proud of that they've accomplished in the last few months and that they really feel good about, and it's an achievement. It's definitely a plus, not a negative. But also three things that, you know, we could have done better or we will do better going forward. Things that we didn't quite achieve that we hope to achieve. So, it's a balance. It's three good things, it's three bad things. But when I run meetings, I like to make it like an Oreo cookie. I like to make the good stuff, the negative stuff, but then end on the good stuff. It's very important how you end a meeting. For whatever reason, psychologically, how you end a meeting makes a big difference in how that person leaves the meeting. So, ideally, even if we've had a tough meeting where we said, "Look, these numbers are in the red. They're not in the black. These numbers are down. They're not up. And we need to up our game. And here's our action plan. And here's how we're going to hold ourselves accountable. And here's how we're going to tinker with compensation in order to reward people for doing better and to not—and take hit their bonuses and maybe eliminate their bonuses if they don't get better fast." There's tough conversations that you have to have. But I don't like to end on that.
主持人:是的。
Original English
Host: Yeah.
嘉宾:我喜欢以这样的练习结束:让房间里的每个人参与进来。好,我们已经完成了所有艰难的部分。我们在业务上努力工作了。好,现在让我们把那放到一边。深呼吸。现在让我们来谈谈——我会问每个人。我会绕着房间走一圈,假设会议室里有十二个人,我会说:“告诉我一些……”我们刚刚开了两个小时的会,我们努力工作,我们找出了一些非常重要的问题需要解决,如果我们解决了这些问题,我们就会为股东创造大量财富。所以,干得好,团队。虽然艰难,但干得好。我们经历了一个严谨的过程,你们努力工作,会议中出现了很多不完美的地方,这在很多方面都令人谦卑。但现在,在像这样艰难的合作会议中工作了两个小时之后,我想问你们一些事情:谁的“星星”升起来了,为什么?谁说了什么,也许你之前已经对他们评价很高,但现在因为他们的思维方式、或者他们表达一个困难话题时的优雅和风度、或者他们用创新方式处理某件事,你对他们评价更高了。谁为创造超额收益、为股东创造财富的魔力做出了贡献?他们是怎么做到的?哦,他们处理了一个冲突局面——因为商业中会有冲突——以一种友善的、好心的、不刻薄的方式。所以,不管是什么,为什么?告诉我。我会绕着整个房间走一圈。我说:“告诉我这个房间里某个人,他说了什么、做了什么、或者没说什么、没做什么,让他的‘星星’升起来了,以及为什么。”人们对此感觉非常好。
Original English
Guest: I like to end on exercises along the lines of having everyone in the room. Okay. Now we've done all the tough stuff. We've worked hard on the business. Okay, now let's put that aside. Take a breath. Now let's just talk about—who I'll ask each. I'll go around the room, supposed to have a dozen people in a meeting, and I'll say, "Tell me some—" So we've just been meeting for two hours. We've been working hard. We came up with—we identified some really important problems we need to solve, and that if we solve them, we're going to create a lot of money for our shareholders. So good job, team. It was tough but good job. We went through a good rigorous process, and you worked hard, and a lot of imperfections came up during the meeting, and that was humbling in a lot of ways. But now I want to ask you something. After working two hours collaboratively in a meeting like this, a difficult meeting, whose star went up and why? Who said something that—maybe they already held them in high esteem, but you hold them in even higher esteem now as a result of the way that they thought, their thinking process, or maybe the elegance and grace with which they expressed a difficult subject, or the way they tackled something from an innovative way. Someone who contributed to the magic of creating alpha, creating money for our shareholders. How did they do? Oh, they handled a situation of conflict—because you have conflict in business—in a way that was nice, that was kind-hearted, that was not mean-spirited. So, whatever. Why? Tell me. I go around the whole room. I say, "Tell me someone in this room who said something or did something or didn't say something or didn't do something that made their star go up and why." And people feel really good about that.
用“静默圆圈”练习为漫长会议画上温暖句号
嘉宾:我还有一整套类似的练习和问题。其中一个我会做的是,当我们有很长的会议时——有时我们有十个小时的会议,有时甚至有十二个小时的会议。我们有来自世界各地的人,我们在做季度运营回顾,我们真的覆盖了非常非常多的内容。我们只休息很少几次,我们就是不停地推进、推进。所以到结束的时候人们都很累了。那是漫长的一天。比如我们从早上七点一直进行到晚上七点,中间只有几次快速的十到十五分钟休息。我们午餐、晚餐都在工作。我喜欢在最后,在这一切结束的时候,有时让所有人站起来围成一个圈,我不想说任何话。我只想让每个人——我只想花整整五分钟。五分钟站在圈里,和另外十五到二十个人一起,一句话不说,那是一段很长的时间。我希望每个人看着每一个人,我希望他们做两件事。我希望他们在心里想,对自己说:“我真的很尊重这个人,因为……”或者“我真的很敬佩这个人”或者“我非常感激这个人在我的团队里,和我们一起在这个团队里。”或者“这个人有某某品质,是如此高尚、如此出色。”就是对每一个人,一个接一个,我希望他们环顾这个圈。第二件我希望他们做的事是,我希望他们说:“不仅我感激能和这个人同在一个团队,我真的祝愿这个人取得很多成功。我希望这个人在公司有一个美好的未来。我希望这个人有一个出色的职业生涯。我希望他们在业绩数字上、在利润上、在他们将要创造的价值上,都能大获成功。”我发现那种双重的体验——来自真诚赞美每个人的感激,然后是对每个人的祝福——就让每个人离开会议时简直像飞在空中一样。人们带着一种非常好的感觉离开。而在商业中,感觉很重要。在商业中,我在书里写过这个,你想要的“爱的氛围”。你想要爱的氛围,不想要恨的氛围。你想要好的振动在公司里传播。你想要人们对自己感觉良好。
Original English
Guest: And I have a whole series of exercises and questions that I do like that. One of them I do is when we have long meetings—or sometimes we have like 10-hour meetings, or sometimes even 12-hour meetings. We have people coming in from around the world and we're doing a quarterly operating review. We're really covering lots and lots of material. We take just a few breaks. We just keep going at it, going at it. So people are tired at the end of that. It's been a long, long day. We've been going from 7 in the morning to 7 at night, for example, with just a few quick 10- or 15-minute breaks. We work right through lunch, right through dinner. I like to end with sometimes getting everyone—at the end of all that, we stand in a circle, and I don't want to say anything. I just want every—I just want to spend five full minutes. Five minutes is a long time to be standing in a circle with 15 or 20 other people not saying a word. And I want everyone to look at each person, and I want them to do two things. I want them to think to themselves, think to themselves, "I really respect this person because" or "I really admire this person" or "I'm so grateful that this person is on my team, is on this team with us." Or "This person has XYZ qualities that are so noble, so fantastic." So positive regard of each person, each person one by one, I want them to look around the circle. And the second thing I want them to do is I want them to say, "Not only am I grateful for being on the same team with this person, I really wish this person a lot of success. I hope this person has a fantastic future at this company. I hope this person has a fantastic career. I hope they knock it out of the park in terms of their numbers, in terms of profit, the generations they're going to do." And I find those that two-handed experience of gratitude, of praise—the gratitude that comes from honest praise of each person, and then the well-wishing to each person—it just everyone goes away from the meeting just figuratively flying on air. People go away with a really good feeling. And feelings count in business. In business, I write about this in the book, the love vibe that you want—the love vibe. You don't want the hate vibe. You want the good vibration going around in the company. You want people feeling good about themselves.
关于公司、人与金钱的思考
主持人:对公司好,对共事的人好,对客户好,对供应商好。你希望他们就像一大家子人。而这需要你去经营。这种事不会自己发生,它不是自然而然的事。它需要付出努力,需要有意识地去经营,需要一些技巧。你已经赚了几十亿美元。关于金钱、花钱和与钱共处,你有哪些希望自己早点明白的教训?
布拉德·雅各布斯:你知道吗,这很有意思。你这个问题让我有点意外,因为我不是用赚了多少钱来定义自己的。那对我来说真的不是什么大事。它像是一张成绩单,但它不是我是谁,也不是我的一切。我恰好身处一个很赚钱的行业,所以我赚了很多钱。我的职业就是为股东赚钱。当你看我的动机,如果你想理解我的整体心态——我看世界的方式、我看自己的方式——其实,如果你让我做那些心理测试,我在“渴望被欣赏”这一项上得分非常高。
那这怎么体现在当CEO上呢?我给你举个完美的例子。上周,我和我新公司QXO的75位共同投资人开了一个电话会。我妻子和我投入了9亿美元,然后红杉资本和几十位朋友和家人——真的是朋友和家人,比如我姐姐、我哥哥、我的侄女侄子——又投入了大约1亿美元。所以我一共往这家公司投了整整10亿美元。在电话会结束时,我告诉他们——那是一个小时的电话会,就是给他们汇报一下我在忙什么——我感谢他们,不是感谢那1亿美元,因为我不需要那1亿美元,我自己可以再多投1亿。我感谢他们给了我动力,给了我灵感,给了我一个目标,因为我想让他们满意。我想让他们开心。我想帮他们赚很多钱。我喜欢快乐,我喜欢自我感觉良好,我喜欢照镜子时喜欢镜子里那个人。而我对此的定义就是取悦我爱的人。那些人就是我的投资人、我的共同投资人、我亲近的朋友和家人,以及这些年来对我好的人,我要回报他们。
并购的核心理念与行业选择
主持人:我们来深入聊聊并购。你在宏观层面是怎么思考的?然后具体带我走一遍你的流程,不仅是评估公司,而是从开始到结束,包括整合。
布拉德·雅各布斯:并购在我的商业生涯中占了很大比重。但头十年不是。从1979年到1989年的头十年,我在做石油生意,那完全是内生增长。我们一笔收购都没做过,全是交易、经纪、靠内生方式把生意做起来。但从1989年以来,我大概做了500笔收购。我做了大量并购。我热爱并购。我热爱并购这种为股东创造价值的方式,因为在我所知的所有方式里,按风险调整后、按确定性水平来看,没有比做明智的并购更有可能创造巨大股东价值的了。
要理解如何创造价值,我必须先理解我要如何把业务做大。我只知道通过把业务大幅做大来创造巨大的股东价值。这就是我知道的方法。当然,也有内生增长,而且我的内生增长一直很好。我领导的公司都表现优异,市场份额很好而且在不断扩大。我们从竞争对手那里抢客户、抢生意,因为我们的竞争对手管理得没那么好。但真正——当你看数字的时候——真正的增长是通过并购实现的。
我在收购上有什么秘诀?我尽量说得简洁些,因为几年前我和麦肯锡的安迪·韦斯特做过一个半小时的播客,那期只问了这一个问题,我就滔滔不绝讲了一个半小时。现在还有很多人看那期播客,因为我真的把一切都讲透了。要点是这样的:首先你必须选择一个行业,你不能随便做并购。所以过去一年我到处跑,研究了几十个行业,看了成百上千个收购机会,主要是和高盛、摩根士丹利,还有红杉和一些朋友一起,判断我能不能把我的打法应用到某个行业。这个行业够不够大?够不够分散?有没有并购可做?做大是不是更好?这并不总是成立的。有没有规模经济?做大之后有没有竞争优势?有没有办法应用技术?我的公司一直比行业更拥抱技术,因为这个行业在技术方面有点落后。我经营企业的方式、我吸纳人才的方式、我的文化、我们彼此互动的方式等等,这些东西能不能用在这个行业?它是不是和我熟悉的东西相关?比如工业服务。1989年以来我的大部分公司都是工业服务类的。我看了很多很多不同的行业,最后选定了一个每一项都符合的行业,那就是建筑产品分销。我的公司名字将叫QXO。并购将是我们业务中非常大的一块。
在北美和西欧有8000亿美元的分销市场,这正是我想插旗的地方。我想建一家500亿美元的公司。我能做到。如果市场有8000亿美元的规模,我可以通过收购和内生增长拿下其中的6%,就能做到500亿美元。还有很多其他行业也不错,但在那些行业我没法做到500亿美元。我想做到500亿美元。所以在这个行业,有一条清晰的路径让我实现这个目标。
收购标的的选择与整合
现在,我不能随便买。美国大约有7000家分销商,西欧差不多是这个数字的两倍,所以总共大约有2万家分销商。你必须非常小心地选择买谁。买那家公司必须有一个理由,必须有一个令人信服的战略理由。什么才算合理?为什么这对客户好?为什么这会让我们的业务变得更好?为什么它和我们已经买下并整合在一起的其他业务相契合?它要怎么整合?
我喜欢看我为一笔收购支付的倍数。我为收购支付的价格非常非常重要,因为当我看我们创造股东价值的那些杠杆时,什么在起作用?最大的杠杆、最大的组成部分,是我筹集资金的成本——这得益于我和机构投资者为主的关系以及过往业绩——和我部署这些资金去做收购之间的利差。第二大杠杆是我能把我买下的业务改善多少。杠杆有很多很多,但这两个是最大的。
所以当我研究了所有这些不同行业,我研究了历史上的收购倍数。我喜欢建筑产品分销的原因之一是,我相信我能以低于我筹资成本的利润倍数买入公司,而这个差距、这个差值、这个德尔塔,会从第一天起就立刻创造价值。
你问到了整合。整合极其重要。谁都能买一家公司,那并不难。你写一张——你发一笔电汇,你签一份文件,就几十页,律师都审过了,你把钱汇过去,你就拥有它了。所以那不是难的部分。难的部分是:在你选对了行业之后,在你选对了那个行业里要买的公司之后,在你有纪律、没有为那些公司付错价之后,你还得把它们整合起来。我从来不是经营那种有几百个不同……的公司。
Original English
Host: Good about the company, good about the people they're working with, good about the customers, good about the vendors. You want them there to be like one big happy family. And you have to work at that. That doesn't happen just by itself. That's not a natural event. That's something that requires effort, that requires intentionality, that requires some skill. You've made a few billion dollars. What lessons have you learned about money and spending money and living with money that you wish you knew sooner?
Brad Jacobs: You know, it's interesting. You throw me off a little bit with the question because I don't define myself as in terms of how much money I made. Like that's just not like the big deal for me. But it's a report card, but it's not who I am and it's not my be all and end all. I happen to be in a business that makes a lot of money. So I make a lot of money. My occupation is making money for shareholders. When you look at my motivation, if you want to understand my gestalt, how I look at the world, how I look at myself, it's really—if you take those psychological tests, I score very high on need to be appreciated. So how does that translate into being a CEO? Well, I'll give you a perfect example. Last week, we had a call with my 75 co-investors in my new company, QXO. So, my wife and I are putting in $900 million, and then Sequoia and a few dozen friends and family, like really friends and family, like my sister, my brother, my niece and nephew, are putting in another $100 million. So, I have a cool $1 billion even putting into this company. And I told them at the end of the call—it was an hour call just to give them an update of what I'm working on—I thank them not for the $100 million because I didn't need the $100 million. I could have put another hundred million of mine in. But I thank them for giving me motivation, giving me inspiration, giving me a purpose because I want to please them. I want to make them happy. I want to make them a lot of money. I like being happy. I like feeling good about myself. I like looking in a mirror and liking who I'm seeing. And how I define that is pleasing the people that I love. And those are my investors, my co-investors, my close friends and family and the people who have been good to me over the years and I give back to them.
Host: Let's deep dive on M&A. How do you think about it at a high level and then specifically walk me through your process for not only evaluating companies but beginning to end including integration?
Brad Jacobs: M&A has been a big part of my business career. Not in the first 10 years. In the first 10 years, from 1979 to 1989, I was in the oil business. It was all organic. We didn't do one single acquisition. It was all just trading and brokering and building up a business organically. But since 1989, I've been doing roughly about 500 acquisitions. I've done a lot of M&A. I love M&A. I love M&A as a way to create value for shareholders because I don't know of another way on a risk-adjusted basis, on a certainty level, that is more likely to create massive shareholder value than doing sensible M&A. In order to understand how to create value, I have to understand how am I going to scale up the business. I only know how to create tremendous shareholder value by growing a business tremendously. That's how I know how to do it. And of course, it's organic. And I've had very good organic growth. The companies I've led have been well-performing companies that have had good market share and growing market share. And we've taken customers away, taken business away from our competitors who aren't managed as well. But the real—when you look at the numbers—the real growth has been through M&A, through acquisitions.
What's been my secrets on acquisitions? I'll try to be concise because I did an hour and a half podcast with McKinsey a couple years ago with Andy West. That was the only question. Asked one question, I babbled on for an hour and a half. It's still—people still watch that podcast because I really told everything about it. Here's the gist. The gist is you first have to select an industry. You can't just do M&A. So I spent the last year going around studying dozens of industries, looking at hundreds and hundreds of acquisition opportunities, mostly with Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and some other, Sequoia and some friends, figuring out could I apply my playbook to this industry? Is the industry big enough? Is the industry fragmented enough? Is there M&A to do? Is bigger better? That's not always the case. Are there economies of scale? Do you have a competitive advantage by being bigger? Is there a way to apply technology? My companies have always been tech forward to the industry because the industry is a little sleepy on technology. Is the way I run a business, the way I do the intake of people and the culture and the way we interact with each other and so forth, is that something that'll work in this industry? Is it something related to something I know about? Industrial services, for example. Most of my companies since 1989 have been industrial services. And I looked at many, many different industries and I settled on the one that checked every single box, which was building products distribution. And the name of my company is going to be QXO. And M&A will be a big, big component of what we do.
There are $800 billion of distributors in Western Europe and in North America, which is where I want to plant my flag. I want to build a company that's, call it, $50 billion. I can do that. If there's an $800 billion size, I can take 6% of that through acquisition and through organic growth. I can get to $50 billion. There's many other industries that are nice, but I'm not going to be able to get to $50 billion. I want to get to $50 billion. So, this industry, there's a clear path of how I can do that.
Now, I can't just buy—and there's roughly about 7,000 distributors here in the United States. There's about almost twice that amount in Western Europe. So roughly about 20,000 distributors. You've got to be very careful about who you buy. There has to be a reason why you're buying that company. There has to be a compelling strategic reason of why you're buying that company. What makes sense for that? Why is that good for customers? Why is that going to make our business a better business? Why does that fit with the other things that we've already bought and put together? How's that going to integrate?
Well, I like to look at the multiples that I pay for an acquisition. The price that I pay for an acquisition is very, very important because when I look at the levers of how we create shareholder value, what contributes to that? The biggest lever, the biggest component, is the differential between what I raise capital at—due to my relationships with mostly institutional investors and because of the track record—and what I can deploy that at on doing acquisitions. The second biggest lever is how much can I improve the businesses that I buy. Those are the—there's many, many levers but those are the two biggest levers.
So I pay close—when I've studied all these different industries, I've studied historical acquisition multiples. And one of the reasons I like building products distribution is I believe that I'll be able to buy companies at lower multiples of their profit than I'll be able to raise capital at, and that's going to be a big—that spread, that difference, that delta—is going to create value boom just right away, right from the first day.
Now you asked about integration. Integration is extremely important. Anybody can buy a company. It's not that hard. You send a wire. You sign a document. It's a few dozen pages. Lawyers have gone over it and you wire the money and you own it. So that's not the hard part. The hard part is: after you've selected the right industry, after you've selected the right companies within that industry to buy, after you've had discipline so that you pay the right price for all those, then you have to integrate them. I've never run companies that have like hundreds of different—
标准化是整合的基石
Speaker A: 各个公司以不同的名称、不同的系统、不同的后台独立运营。确实存在一定程度的分散化,因为你需要贴近客户。但我对标准化有非常强烈的偏好——首先是ERP系统的标准化,也就是你用来关账的那套系统。这样你就能在月底结束后迅速关账,并且拥有标准化的仪表盘,让所有管理者看到相同格式的数字、相同的KPI,并且以图形化方式呈现,非常容易理解。我喜欢这样,这样他们就能把每个公司、每个门店、每个区域、每个大区互相进行对标。而要做到这一点,你就需要标准化。
我还希望有非常标准化的人力资源信息系统(HRIS),所有组织里的人——我们会把这家公司做大,会有几十万名员工——我需要为所有员工建立标准化的数据系统。每个人都在同一个401k计划里,福利的发放方式完全一致,绩效评估的标准也完全一致。薪酬情况我一眼就能看到。我需要信息的透明度,我需要组织架构图随时可以调取。每次我们做收购时,我需要在研究目标公司时立刻调出这些信息,这样我们就能比其他竞标者拥有竞争优势,快速判断协同效应在哪里。所以,我需要贯穿所有环节的标准化HR技术。
我还需要标准化的CRM(客户关系管理系统),比如Salesforce.com,或者其他的同类系统。通过它,我能确保我们在关注客户、客户的吸引力、客户的盈利能力、客户的消费规模,以及这些客户未来的潜力,还有我们与这些客户的所有互动记录。我需要以标准化的方式看到这一切,遍及全球,遍及我们运营的每一个国家。所以,我需要标准化的客户关系和销售管理技术。
此外,我还需要标准化的内部社交媒体。我碰巧喜欢用Facebook的Workplace,它不是唯一的选择,但我非常喜欢它,界面真的非常好。所以我希望所有人都用同一个平台,因为我希望打造一个公司、一种文化,让每个人都能互相联系。我不喜欢那种公司各自为政的孤岛状态。有时候你会看到一些公司把许多不同的公司拼凑在一起,但整个是一团乱麻,各自独立。我完全不喜欢那样。你会看到很多中型市场的私募股权公司就是这么干的。他们收购一堆小公司,每家大概500万到2000万美元的EBITDA,然后买上一堆,凑到1亿或2亿美元的EBITDA,就只是因为规模大了就能拿到更高的估值倍数。但内部其实一团糟。无论是谁买下那些公司,都有大量的工作要做。你现在必须把所有东西标准化、整合起来,这确实有改进的机会,但要修复所有这些问题,需要大量的成本和时间。
所以,从我们同意收购一家公司的那一刻起,我们就启动整合流程。交割那天,砰的一下,我们就进场了,尽可能地把所有东西标准化。同时我们也在大量沟通、持续沟通。并购成功的一个很大部分在于与人员建立关系,确保我们一开始就走在正确的轨道上,确保不流失优秀人才,同时我们也在识别那些表现不佳的人,并以体面而慷慨的方式让他们离开。所以并购涉及很多不同的组成部分。我刚才是在概括很多不同的因素,其中每一项我们都能单独聊上一个小时。但这些都是我在并购中脑子里会想的事情,也是我的并购方法论。
尽调中的关键提问
Speaker B: 在尽调过程中,你会对排名前10到15的高管进行访谈,你有一些独特的提问。能跟我讲讲其中至少两三个问题吗?那些能让你获得最有价值信息的问题。
Speaker A: 好的。你会看到有些公司在被收购谈判时,会做一套非常冗长、细致、官僚化的尽调流程,他们雇一家事务所,写一份巨大的备忘录,但根本没人读。也许某个书呆子会读,但重要人物都不读,那基本上只是为了免责。我不是为了免责,我是为了给股东赚钱。我的目标就是给股东赚钱,仅此而已。所以我在尽调中寻找的是:我想知道他们怎么赚钱,我想知道这家公司的历史,我想知道这家公司的现状。我想去问那些人。我喜欢一对一地访谈前15名左右的高管,每次大约一个小时到一个半小时。我喜欢问他们:如果这是你的钱,你会买这家公司吗?如果你买了,你会改变什么?你会做哪些不同的事?在哪些地方有机会做出与以往不同的做法?我还喜欢问他们:好吧,如果你要买这家公司,你不会改变什么?这家公司有什么优点让它如此成功,以至于吸引了像我们这样的大买家,我们如果去改变它简直就是疯了?
我喜欢问这类问题。这些问题能让我洞察这家企业是如何走到今天这一步的,这家公司的未来是什么?我们未来如何改进这家公司?哪些地方是当前公司运营方式中的盲点,是我们能够修复的?哪些事情运转良好,也许我们可以投入更多资源?我们在哪些地方花钱不够?我们在哪些地方没有投入足够的资金到某个可能带来良好投资回报的事情上?另一方面,公司在哪些地方浪费钱?钱都花到哪些事情上了,我们为什么要做那些事?那些事并不能真正帮助客户,不能让客户更满意,也不能提升我们的客户业务评价。那我们为什么还要做?这就是我喜欢问的问题,它们真的很有揭示性。
我见过的第一个问这类问题的人是Cat Cole,她现在在Athletic Greens担任副总裁。当年她扭转Cinnabon时,就是这么做的。她亲自去门店工作,问员工们会做哪些不同的事情。结果非常有揭示性,他们最终做出的改变也证明了这一点。
Speaker B: 我发现很多公司在内部根本不会问这些问题。
Speaker A: 是的。
Speaker B: 我非常热衷于问这些问题。我热衷于做调研,用全员大会、一对一访谈、小组访谈的方式,问这些问题:我们怎么赢?我们怎么赢?我们做错了什么?我们能做得更好的是什么?我们做对了什么、应该做得更多的?我发现这非常有价值,非常非常有价值。它在时间上的回报率极高。正如我在书里写的,管理者只管理两样东西:资本回报率和时间回报率。我相信,去问员工、让他们参与这个过程,是极佳的时间回报,也是极佳的资本回报。
董事会与创始人领导的公司
Speaker B: 在像QXO这样由创始人强势领导的公司里,董事会的角色是什么?你投入了9亿美元的自有资金,你是创始人、CEO、最大股东。这会扮演什么角色?这会如何改变董事会的角色?尤其是在并购方面?
Speaker A: 我一直非常幸运,拥有非常出色的董事会。那些董事会非常强大,成员都是真正有能力的人,他们投资于这家公司,他们积极参与,他们认真对待这份工作,他们对公司充满热情。而我和董事会的关系与大多数董事会有点不同。我们完全透明,完全开放。任何董事会成员都可以……
Original English
Speaker A: Companies running separately with different names and different systems and different back offices. And there is some level of decentralization where you need to be closer to the customer. But I have a very strong appetite for standardization, standardization of the ERP system that you close the books with. So you close the books promptly right after the close of the month and that you can have standardized dashboard so all the managers have the same format of the numbers they're looking at the KPIs and they see them graphically very easy to understand. I like to see so they can benchmark every comp, every location to every other location, every district to other districts, every region to other regions. And for that you need standardization.
I like to have very standardized HRIS, human resources system where all the people in the organization and we'll build this company up. We'll have hundreds of thousands of employees. I need to have a standardized data system for all of our employees. Everyone's on the for 401k. It's the same exact way of doing all the benefits are the same. All the performance appraisals are the same. Compensation I can see right away. I need to have transparency to the information about I need to have the organization charts very accessible right away. And every time we do an acquisition, I need to pull that information up right away while we're studying it quickly so we have a competitive advantage against other bidders to see what would the synergies be. So I need standardized HR technology throughout everything.
I need a standardized CRM, customer relationship management system like Salesforce.com or there's several others as well. And for that to be able to make sure we're looking at customers, the attractiveness of those customers, the profitability of those customers, the size of their spend, so therefore the potential of those customers going forward, all the interactions we've had with those customers. I need to see that in a standardized way all across the globe, everywhere, every country we're functioning in. So, I need a standardized technology for customer relationship for sales management.
So, I need a standardized internal social media. I happen to like I've used Workplace by Facebook. It's not the only one, but I like that one really well. It's nice and the interface is really really good. So, I like to have everyone on the same one because I like to have one company with one culture where everybody can ping each other. I don't want to have these silos of companies. Like sometimes you see these companies roll up many different companies, but it's all a mishmash. It's all separate. I don't like that at all. You see a lot of these middle market private equity firms do that. They roll up these small companies. They're doing five, 10, 20 million EBITDA each and they just buy a bunch of them and now they're up to 100 million or 200 million EBITDA and they just get a bigger multiple because they're bigger. But it's a mess. Whoever buys those companies, there's a lot of work to be done. You've got to now standardize everything and integrate everything and opportunity to improve them, but it's a lot of cost and time to fix all that stuff up.
So, I integrate from the moment that we agree to buy a company, we're starting the integration process. And the day we close the acquisition, bam, we're in there and we're standardizing everything as much as we possibly can. And we're communicating and communicating quite a bit. A big part of the success for M&A is forming the relationship with people and making sure we get off on the right foot and making sure that we don't lose the great talent and making sure we at the same time we're identifying the weak players and gracefully and generously exiting them. So there's a lot of different components to M&A. I'm summarizing a lot of different factors each one of those things. We could talk for an hour just on that block. But those are the kinds of things that go through my mind in my approach to M&A.
Speaker B: You have some unique questions when you interview sort of the top 10 to 15 people as part of the diligence process. Can you walk me through what at least two or three of those questions are where you get the most useful information?
Original English
Speaker B: You have some unique questions when you interview sort of the top 10 to 15 people as part of the diligence process. Can you walk me through what at least two or three of those questions are where you get the most useful information?
Speaker A: Yes. So you see some companies when they're negotiating by a company do this very lengthy and detailed and bureaucratic diligence process and they hire a firm and they write this big huge memo that nobody ever reads and some wonk reads it but nobody important reads it and it's basically just to cover their butt. Now I'm not trying to cover butts. I'm trying to make money for shareholders. My goal is to make money for shareholders period. And so what I'm looking for in diligence is I want to know how they make money. I want to know the history of this company. I want to know the current state of this company. I want to ask those people. I like to interview the top 15 or so people one-on-one, like an hour, hour and a half. And I like to ask them, if this was your money, would you buy this company? And what would if you did buy it, what would you change? What would you do differently? Where's the opportunity to do something differently than it's been done? And I like to ask them, okay, if you were buying this company, what would you not change? What is so good about this company that's making it successful that's attracted a big bidder like ourselves that we should make sure we'd be crazy to change that? So, I like to ask questions like that. Questions that give me insights into how the business got to where it is, what's the future of this company? How could we improve the company going forward? Where are the things that have been blind spots of the current way the company's been run that we could fix and what are the things that are working well that maybe we could put more resources into? Where have we not been spending enough money? Where have we been not investing enough money into something that could be a good return on investment? On the other hand, where has the company been wasting money? Where has the money been gone into things that why are we doing that? Doesn't really help customers. It doesn't delight customers. Doesn't make customers happier or doesn't improve our customer business reviews. So, why are we even doing it? That's what I like to ask those questions and they're really revealing.
The first person who I talked to who had questions like that was Cat Cole, who is the vice president now at Athletic Greens. When she turned around Cinnabon, that's what she would do. She went and worked in the stores and asked the employees what they would do differently. And it was so revealing in terms of what they ended up changing.
Original English
Speaker A: Yes. So you see some companies when they're negotiating by a company do this very lengthy and detailed and bureaucratic diligence process and they hire a firm and they write this big huge memo that nobody ever reads and some wonk reads it but nobody important reads it and it's basically just to cover their butt. Now I'm not trying to cover butts. I'm trying to make money for shareholders. My goal is to make money for shareholders period. And so what I'm looking for in diligence is I want to know how they make money. I want to know the history of this company. I want to know the current state of this company. I want to ask those people. I like to interview the top 15 or so people one-on-one, like an hour, hour and a half. And I like to ask them, if this was your money, would you buy this company? And what would if you did buy it, what would you change? What would you do differently? Where's the opportunity to do something differently than it's been done? And I like to ask them, okay, if you were buying this company, what would you not change? What is so good about this company that's making it successful that's attracted a big bidder like ourselves that we should make sure we'd be crazy to change that? So, I like to ask questions like that. Questions that give me insights into how the business got to where it is, what's the future of this company? How could we improve the company going forward? Where are the things that have been blind spots of the current way the company's been run that we could fix and what are the things that are working well that maybe we could put more resources into? Where have we not been spending enough money? Where have we been not investing enough money into something that could be a good return on investment? On the other hand, where has the company been wasting money? Where has the money been gone into things that why are we doing that? Doesn't really help customers. It doesn't delight customers. Doesn't make customers happier or doesn't improve our customer business reviews. So, why are we even doing it? That's what I like to ask those questions and they're really revealing.
The first person who I talked to who had questions like that was Cat Cole, who is the vice president now at Athletic Greens. When she turned around Cinnabon, that's what she would do. She went and worked in the stores and asked the employees what they would do differently. And it was so revealing in terms of what they ended up changing.
Speaker B: I find so many times in corporations, people don't ask those questions.
Original English
Speaker B: I find so many times in corporations, people don't ask those questions.
Speaker A: Yeah.
Original English
Speaker A: Yeah.
Speaker B: And I'm big on asking those questions. I'm big at surveying using town halls, one-on-one interviews, small group interviews, asking questions about how are we going to win? How are we going to win? What are we doing wrong? What can we be doing better? What are we doing right that we should do more of? And I find it very valuable, very very valuable. It yields a great return on time. And as I write about in my book, there's only two things a manager manages. Return on capital and return on time. And I believe that asking the employees and getting them involved in the process is a great return on time and a great return on capital.
Original English
Speaker B: And I'm big on asking those questions. I'm big at surveying using town halls, one-on-one interviews, small group interviews, asking questions about how are we going to win? How are we going to win? What are we doing wrong? What can we be doing better? What are we doing right that we should do more of? And I find it very valuable, very very valuable. It yields a great return on time. And as I write about in my book, there's only two things a manager manages. Return on capital and return on time. And I believe that asking the employees and getting them involved in the process is a great return on time and a great return on capital.
董事会与创始人领导的公司
Speaker B: What's the role of a board in a strong founder-led company like QXO? You're investing 900 million of your own money. You're the founder, the CEO, largest shareholder. What role will that play? How does that change the role of a board? Especially when it comes to M&A.
Original English
Speaker B: What's the role of a board in a strong founder-led company like QXO? You're investing 900 million of your own money. You're the founder, the CEO, largest shareholder. What role will that play? How does that change the role of a board? Especially when it comes to M&A.
Speaker A: I've been really fortunate to have fantastic boards. Boards that are very strong comprised of people who are really competent people have they're invested in the company. They're leaning in. They take the job seriously. They are passionate about the company. And my relationship with the board is a little bit different than most boards. We're completely transparent, completely open. Any board member can……
Original English
Speaker A: I've been really fortunate to have fantastic boards. Boards that are very strong comprised of people who are really competent people have they're invested in the company. They're leaning in. They take the job seriously. They are passionate about the company. And my relationship with the board is a little bit different than most boards. We're completely transparent, completely open. Any board member can……
董事会成员的高度参与
Speaker A: 公司里的任何人,任何时候都可以联系任何一位董事会成员,问他们任何想问的问题,而且没有监督,也不需要有人陪同,完全没有这些限制。所以,我希望董事会成员掌握非常非常充分的信息。我希望董事会成员能拿到客户调查的副本,好的和坏的都要。我希望他们看到那些内容。我还希望他们看到分析,看到客户调查的分析,了解我们在哪些方面做得好、哪些方面还有不足。我希望他们知道这些。我希望董事会成员能看到所有的员工调查,看到我们做的所有词云分析、所有趋势分析和所有基准对比。我希望他们看到员工的痛点在哪里,看到员工在哪些方面感到满意,看到员工的趋势变化。我希望董事们被邀请参加每一次运营会议,无论是月度运营会议还是季度运营会议,只要是公司任何部门召开的,只要他们感兴趣就可以参加。我希望他们参与得越多越好,因为他们的参与越深入,我们从中受益就越多。
Original English
Speaker A: Any person in the company can reach out to any board member anytime they want and ask them anything they want, and there's no supervision or people have to accompany them or none of that. So, I want board members to be very, very informed. I want board members to get copies of the customer surveys. I want the good and the bad. I want them to see that. And I want them to see the analysis. I want them to see the analysis of the customer surveys of where we're doing well and where we're falling short. I want them to know that. I want the board members to have all the employee surveys and see all the word cloud analysis that we do, all the trend analysis and all the benchmarking we do. I want them to see where the pain points are of employees. I want them to see where employees are happy. I want them to see the trends of employees. I want the directors to be invited to every operating view and every monthly operating view, every quarterly operating view of any part of the company that tickles their fancy. I want them, the more they're involved, the better off we're benefiting from them.
真正的董事会会议
Speaker A: 所以,我喜欢那种参与度很高、知识很渊博的董事会成员,然后我们就能围绕重要的事情展开高质量的对话。而且,我主持董事会会议的方式,和大多数财富500强公司的董事会不一样。大多数财富500强公司的董事会会议,都相当程式化,有时甚至还会排练,管理层会精心准备一套说辞,用PowerPoint演示,用排练好的演讲呈现出来,那几乎完全是浪费时间。其实你只要发一份文件给他们,整件事就完成了,根本没有必要为此召集会议。那不过是一场“歌舞伎表演”罢了。就是这样。我喜欢开真正的董事会会议,会前每个人都读完了所有数据,而且在两次会议之间,他们通过我刚才讲的那些方式深入参与了业务。然后他们来开会,在一天的时间里,我们会请来大约10到20位经理、高管,有些是高级的,有些是中层经理,有些是一线经理和员工。然后我会在房间里走一圈,我希望每一位董事都能问他们想问的任何问题。我不希望他们提前告诉我他们要问什么,我也不希望他们提前告诉那些接受访谈的经理们问题是什么。我不希望我们的高管或一线员工浪费时间——我故意用“浪费”这个词——去准备什么演讲、什么稿子,或者有时候是那种虚假的、吹嘘一切有多好的销售故事。我想问真实的问题。我想把尖锐的问题也包括进去,我希望人们当场诚实、自发、完整地回答。所以我热爱我们的董事会会议。
Original English
Speaker A: So, I like to have board members that are very involved, very knowledgeable, and we have good conversations about the important stuff. And I don't run board meetings the way most Fortune 500 company boards are run. Most Fortune 500 company board members, board meetings are kind of they're very scripted and they sometimes even rehearsed and there's a careful story that's being told by management and it's done by PowerPoint, it's done by rehearsed presentations that come up and it's complete waste almost a complete waste of time. You could do that whole thing just by sending them a document. There's no reason to convene a meeting for that. It's just a kabuki dance. This is it. I like to have real board meetings where ahead of time everyone's read all that data and between board meetings they've been in the business through what I've been talking about and they come to the meeting and we bring in over the course of a day somewhere between 10 and 20 managers, executives, sometimes senior ones, sometimes mid-level managers, sometimes front level managers, employees and I go around the room and I like every single director to ask whatever they want to ask. I don't want them to tell me ahead of time what they're going to ask and I don't want them to tell the managers who they're interviewing to know what the questions are ahead of time. I don't want our executives or our frontline employees to waste time and I'm using the word waste deliberately preparing for the meeting some speech, some script, some sometimes phony bologoney sales story about how great things are. I want to ask real questions. I want to include in the tough questions and I want people to answer them honestly and spontaneously in the moment and completely so that those I love our board meetings.
董事会会议应以董事为中心
Speaker A: 所以,我现在是三家不同公司的董事长:XPO、GXO和RXO。我们的董事会会议往往每三个月开一次,时间大致相同。一年中我最喜欢的一些会议就是这些,因为我的董事们参与度极高,对业务非常了解,而且会提出非常好的问题。我学到了很多。我在董事会会议上学到了很多东西。我不会主导董事会会议,不会让自己成为一直发言的那个人。很多时候你会发现,董事长或CEO总是在大谈特谈自己。董事会会议不应该围绕董事长和CEO来展开。董事会会议应该围绕董事们获取他们需要获取、想要获取的信息来展开。应该聚焦于问题,或者哪些方面进展顺利,或者你从董事会层面怎么看这件事。
Original English
Speaker A: So I'm now chairman at the moment of three different companies, XPO, GXO and RXO. And so we tend to have our board meetings every three months around the same time around the same period. Some of my favorite meetings the whole year because I had highly engaged directors who are knowledgeable about the business and who ask really good questions. I learn a lot. I learn a lot at the board meetings. I don't dominate the board meeting with I'm the person speaking all the time. A lot of times you find that the chairman or the CEO is like making a whole big deal about themselves. Board meetings should not be about the chairman and the CEO or the chair and CEO. The board meeting should be about the directors getting the information they need to get, that they want to get, they should be getting. Should it be focused on problems or what's going well or how do you think about that from a board level.
议程的制定
Speaker A: 然后我想更具体地谈谈管理层会议,但比如在董事会层面,你会怎么组织?你会怎么围绕这个来制定议程?我不制定议程。我做的,是确定应该请哪些合适的人来。但即便是决定应该请哪些管理层人员,我也不是完全自己说了算。我会听取首席独立董事的意见,也会听取副董事长的意见。我们会和CEO一起商量出一个方案,然后我把它分发给大家,让整个董事会都看看。然后我会问:“你们觉得怎么样?这样安排如何?有人有什么改动意见吗?”人们通常会有改动意见。他们会说:“很好,但我还想加一个关于人力资源的板块。”就在昨天,我们在为一次董事会会议做准备,我的一个副董事长就说:“你知道,这样很好,但我想加一个关于人力资本管理、人员管理的板块。”于是我们就重新调整了安排,请了一些人力资源的人来。所以,我的目标是把合适的人请到房间里,让他们面对董事们,然后让董事们问他们认为该问的问题。我不想对议程进行微观管理,因为那是我的议程。我永远不会比所有董事加在一起更聪明。这在数学上永远不会发生。
Original English
Speaker A: And then I want to get into more specifically management meetings but like at the board level how would you organize that around how do you craft an agenda for that. I don't craft the agenda. What I craft is I figure out who are the right people to bring in. But even that in terms of the management we should bring in, I don't do that all by myself. I get input from the lead independent director. I get input from the vice chair. We come up with something together with the CEO and then I distribute it around to the whole board. So, what do you think? How does this look? Anyone have any changes? People usually have changes. People say, "That's great, but I'd also like to have a section on HR." Just even yesterday, we're preparing for a board meeting and one of my vice chairs said, you know, that's good, but I want to have a section on human capital management, people management. So, we rearranged things and we're bringing some HR folks. So my goal is to get the right people in the room in front of the directors and then let the directors ask what they feel is right to ask. I don't want to micromanage the agenda because that's my agenda. I am never going to be smarter than the sum of all the directors. That's never going to happen mathematically.
Speaker B: 或者那就是你选错了董事。
Speaker A: 非常对。是的。而且我喜欢那些聪明、投入、真正想改善公司的董事。他们想发挥自己的作用。他们非常非常认真地对待自己的受托责任。他们有强烈的忠诚义务,也有强烈的谨慎义务。
Original English
Speaker B: Or you have the wrong directors. Right.
Speaker A: Very much so. Yeah. And I like directors who are smart and who are engaged and really want to improve the company. They want to play their role. They take their fiduciary duty very very carefully. They have a strong duty of loyalty. They have a strong duty of care.
决策方式:委员会与个人
Speaker B: 说到决策,在你经营的公司里,有多少决策是由委员会做出的,又有多少是由个人做出的?
Speaker A: 嗯,我讨厌“委员会”这个词,就这么简单。“委员会”听起来就像官僚主义、繁文缛节、拖沓、低能量的词。我就是受不了这个词。所以,我尽量不把任何东西叫作“委员会”,纯粹是命名上的考虑。不过,有时候确实需要一群人来做决定,因为要做出正确的决定,需要涉及不止一个专业领域。比如我们有一个任务,它涉及财务因素,所以你需要财务或会计方面的人;它肯定也有运营因素,所以需要运营人员在场;但它还有很大的人员因素,所以我需要人力资源的人在场。所以,如果是一个影响很大的重大决策,我会让CEO、COO、CFO、CHRO都参与进来,那是个大决策。我不会用那些小决策去浪费这些非常重要的人的时间。
Original English
Speaker B: When you think about decision making, how often are decisions made by committees in the companies you run versus made by individuals?
Speaker A: Well, I hate the word committee period. Committee is just like a bureaucratic red tape slow kind of low energy kind of word. I just can't stand the word. So I try not to call things committees just to nomenclature. However, there are sometimes when a group of people will have to make a decision because it's more than one discipline that's required to get to the right decision. There might be a task that we have that has a financial element. So you need someone from finance accounting that certainly has an operational element to it. You need ops person there. But also have a big people element. So I need an HR person there. And so I could have if it's a big decision with big impact then I'm going to have the CEO, the COO, the CFO, CHRO, that's a big decision. I'm not going to waste those very important people's time with small decisions.
FP&A 的关键作用
Speaker A: 财务规划与分析(FP&A)在我的公司里扮演着非常重要的角色,比在大多数公司里都重要。FP&A的人就是那些把所有想法转化成数字的人。他们在会议里,听着所有这些想法,然后把它们变成数字,变成预测,变成预估,变成概率。他们会说:“看,我们有这10件事要做,来为股东创造超额收益。”他们给每一件事都附上概率。比如“这件事我有90%的把握,稳了,一定会发生。这件事风险很大,大概只有10%到20%的发生概率,但也不是零概率。它有10%或20%的概率,而且如果实现了,回报会很高。所以值得投入精力。但我只会给它10%或20%的权重,甚至可能给更少的权重。”而且他们还负责预算,是持续迭代的预算。我们不是偶尔做一次预算,我们每天都在做预算。每一天,我们都有我们的计划数字,然后看我们实际执行与计划的对比情况。FP&A的人非常擅长判断谁在“留一手”(压低预期),谁在夸大其词。我这么说是什么意思呢?就是有些经理,因为性格原因,或者出于其他什么原因,或者可能是在跟自己的奖金玩游戏,他们想降低预期,这样最后就能显得自己很厉害。但这不好,因为我们想知道真实的可能性结果,这样才能围绕它做规划。另一方面,也有一些人过度自信,他们认为这件事肯定会发生,我一定能把它做大,但如果你看看他们的……
Original English
Speaker A: FP&A, financial planning analysis, plays a big role in my company more than in most companies. The FP&A people are the ones who are turning all these. They're in a meeting. They're listening to all these ideas and they're turning them into numbers. They're turning them into forecasts. They're turning them into projections. They're turning them into probabilities. They're turning them into the look, we have these 10 things we're going to work on to create alpha for our shareholders. They're attaching probabilities to each one of those. I got a 90% chance of this is in the bag. This is going to happen. This is a long shot. This is like a 10 20 percent chance of happening, but it's not a zero percent. It's a 10 or 20 percent and it's got a high return if we achieve it. So, it's worth putting the effort in. But, I'm only going to give 10 or 20% credit. Maybe even going to give less credit than that. And they're also doing budgeting, constant iterative budgeting. We don't do budgeting once in a while. We do budgeting every day. Every single day where we've got our numbers that our plan is our plan and where are we tracking versus the plan and the FP&A people are really good at figuring out who's sandbagging and who's exaggerating. By that what I mean is you have some managers who just due to their personalities or for whatever reason or maybe they're playing games with their bonus they want to lower expectations so they come out looking like heroes. Well, that's not good because we want to know the real likely outcome so we can plan around that. On the other hand, you have some people who are overly self-confident and they think this is definitely going to happen and I'm going to grow this, but if you look at their...
FPNA 的预测记录与资本配置角色
Speaker A: 回顾过去三年,他们几乎每年都偏离预测 3% 到 5%。所以他们会根据过去的记录来折减这些预测,判断未来成功的可能性。FPNA 团队在这方面扮演了非常重要的角色,他们要为我们手头所有这些不同的项目,测算出最高、最低以及最可能的结果。同时,他们在资本配置方面也发挥着重要作用。我们之前谈过,高管要做的两件大事,一是决定我们以什么方式花钱,二是配置资本,因为资本是有限的。即使有几十亿美元,也不是几万亿或无数亿,就是几十亿,是有限的资本。我们要怎么投资这些资本?在所有不同的投资方式中,哪些是最高、最好的用途?我们又要如何管理时间?如何让所有人都聚焦在真正重要的事情上,而不是把时间浪费在那些无关紧要、不会为股东创造巨大价值的事情上——而创造股东价值正是我们的使命。FPNA 的人帮助我们理解这一点,把它变成数字,因为有时候你可能会被一个非常有启发性、激励性、非常有创意、很棒的项目所打动,但当你分析数字时,会发现它在时间回报或资本回报上其实并不理想。所以也许我们不应该在那上面花那么多时间。我们也在管理整个组织在各类项目上投入的时间。你会发现,在美国企业界,很多时候他们会迷失方向。管理层会陷入一些偏离主线的岔路,而这些岔路并不是他们为股东创造价值这一核心使命的重点。FPNA 的人负责追踪这些。他们是记分员,确保每个人在资本投入方式上保持诚实。资本回报与我们预期相比如何?我们计划了如何分配时间,而实际的时间分配是否与最高影响力的方向成比例?这是一个非常重要的角色。所以 FPNA 最终在整个组织中无处不在,每当我们做重大决策时都有他们的参与,因为他们非常擅长把这一切落到现实、落到真实的数字上。
Original English
Speaker A: If you look over the last three years, they've missed their predictions by 3 to 5% like pretty much every year. So they're going to discount them based on the past predicting their future likelihood of succeeding. So the FPNA people play a big big role in that in figuring out what is the highest lowest and likeliest outcome for all these different endeavors that we've got. And they're also playing a big role for allocating capital. So, we talked before about the two big things that senior executives do is is decide what kind of ways we're going to spend money, allocate capital because it's finite. Even if it's billions of dollars, it's not trillions or gazillion, it's billions. It's finite capital. How are we going to sp invest that capital of all the different ways we can invest? What's the highest and best uses of that capital? And how are we going to manage time? How are we going to get everyone focused on the things that really matter and not waste their time on the silly stuff that really doesn't matter? It's not going to create massive value for our shareholders, which is what our mission is. The FBANA people help with understanding that putting it into numbers because sometimes you can get very inspired and motivated and it's a really really creative fantastic uh inspiring project comes up but when you analyze the numbers it's really not a really good return on time or return on capital. So maybe we shouldn't be spending so much time on that. So we're we're also managing how much time are we spending as an organization on what kind of projects. You find a lot of time in corporate America somehow or another they get lost. Management gets lost on these tangents that are not central to their main mission of creating value for shareholders. And the FPNA people keep track of that. They're the scorekeepers to keep everyone honest of how we're investing capital. How are the returns on that capital versus what we expected it to be? We planned on how we spending our time. Is how we're spending our time proportionate to what has the highest impact of how we're spending our time? And this is a very important role. So FPNA ends up being kind of omniresent throughout the organization anytime we're making big decisions because they're really good at getting all this down to to reality to real numbers.
FPNA 的双线汇报结构
Speaker B: 那他们是向 CFO 汇报吗?这是内部的结构吗?
Original English
Speaker B: And they report to the CFO. Is that the structure internally?
Speaker A: 嗯,FPNA 有两条线。一条是向 CFO 汇报,同时他们还有一条虚线向运营部门和我汇报。所以我几乎每天都依赖我的 FPNA 人员。我想知道,原因有两个。第一,我想从内部了解我们在那些高度优先的项目上进展如何。第二,我还想知道我们对股东和投资者的承诺履行得怎么样。当你是一家上市公司的 CEO 时,你有一个非常重要的使命,因为你已经承诺了未来的数字会是什么样:利润会有多少,有机收入增长会有多少,利润率会是多少,资本回报会是多少,自由现金流会有多少。现在你有一个承诺在外面,你有业绩指引,你有预测。你在非常努力地实现它。我需要知道——而 FPNA 是了解这个的最佳渠道——我们对照那个目标的进展如何?如果我们远超目标,偏差很大,那我们就会和法律部门、投资者关系部门商量,说:我们是不是应该在季度结束前、在我们通常发布业绩之前,提前更新投资社区?同样重要的是,甚至可能更重要的是,我想知道——老天保佑可别这样——如果我们低于预期。一旦我知道了,我就会开会说:“哇,在我们向投资者承诺的六七个核心指标中,这五六个我们做得不错,但这一两个不行,不行不行,做得不太好。我们要怎么做才能回到正轨?”所以就是不断地利用我们的感知、信息收集,然后回到正轨。回到正轨。
Original English
Speaker A: Uh FPNA has has a two lines. one is to the CFO on the and they have a dotted line to operations and to me. So I I rely on my FPNA person like every day. I want to know for two reasons. I want to know internally how are we doing on the projects that we're we're we're attaching high priority to. I also want to know how are we doing on our commitments to shareholders to investors. When you're the CEO of a public company, you have a really important mission in that you've promised what your numbers are going to be in the in the future. How much your profit's going to be, how much your organic revenue growth is going to be, how much your margins are going to be, what your return on capital is going to be, how much your free cash flow is going to be. And now you've got a you've got a promise out there. You've got a guidance. You've got a forecast. And and you're working really hard to achieve that. I need to know and FPNA is the best place to know that. How are we tracking against that? And if we're tracking higher than that and significantly higher than that, there's a big deviation from that, well, we'll talk to to legal and we'll talk to IR and the investor relations and we'll say, should we update the the investment community ahead of the quarter, ahead of when we normally produce our results? And equally importantly, maybe even maybe even more importantly, I want to know, god forbid, if we're tracking below our estimates. And once I know that, then I have a meeting and I say, "Whoa, we're of our of our six or seven top metrics that we've promised to our investors, we're doing well on these five or six, but on these one or two, no, no, no, it's not doing very well. What are we going to do to get back on track?" So, constantly using our sensing, information, gathering, and then getting back on track. Getting back on track.
资本市场的使用与业绩承诺
Speaker B: 你们做预测,是因为未来某个时点会因为收购战略而去资本市场融资吗?还是说,如果你知道不需要筹集额外资本,就不会这么做?
Original English
Speaker B: Do you do the forecasting because you're going to be going to the capital markets for for capital at some point in the future with an acquisition strategy or would you not do that if you knew you weren't going to raise additional capital?
Speaker A: 嗯,我是资本市场的大用户,因为我所有的公司都是通过收购成长起来的,而我需要资本来发展这些收购。我们从全球最大的主权财富基金、一些全球最大的养老基金、一些最大的纯多头基金,还有各种捐赠基金和许多不同的人那里筹集过资金,我们拿了他们的钱,然后还给了他们比当初给我们的多得多的钱。要做到这一点,你必须兑现你的承诺。你的业绩很重要。业绩确实重要,非常非常重要。所以即使我们不筹集资本,事实是我们拿了资本,而且有时候我们好几年都不筹集资本——嗯,我们可能会对债务进行再融资,以利用利率变化之类的机会。但就筹集股权而言,这才是真正的大事,有时候我们确实做了一些收购,比如 2015 年我们做了两笔大收购,然后我们消化它们,整合、优化,在没有做任何收购的情况下把利润翻了一倍、三倍。在那段时间里,我们不需要筹集股权,我们也没有筹。但是,即使我们没有筹集股权,即使我们没有走到资本市场链条的那一端,我们仍然对数字上的表现给予了极其严格的关注。那是我们的工作。我们作为高管、经理、这家企业的托管人的工作,就是产生业绩,而最终衡量的就是财务业绩。它也体现在运营业绩上,也体现在客户满意度、员工满意度上。但所有这些最终都会导向财务指标,你必须保持专注。你必须让整个组织都专注于交付这些财务指标,而这就是你交付它们的方式。这是一种有意识的意图,一种荣誉感,一种“我需要做到”的感觉。这就是我们需要做的。这是我们的承诺。承诺了,就要兑现。
Original English
Speaker A: Well, I I am a big user of capital markets because all my companies have grown through uh acquisitions and I' I've needed capital to grow those acquisitions. We've raised money from the largest sovereign wealth funds in the world and some of the largest pension funds in the world, some of the largest long only funds and you know all endowments and a lot of different people whose money we've taken and given them back a lot more money than they than they gave us. In order to do that, you've got to hit the you've got to meet your promises. Your results matter. Results matter. They're very very important. So even if we weren't raising capital, the fact that we've taken capital and sometimes we've gone for years without raising cap well we've maybe refinanced debt to take advantage of changing interest rates or something like that. But in terms of raising equity, which is the deer thing, raising equity, sometimes we've done some acquisitions like in 2015, we did two big acquisitions and then we digested them and we integrated and optimized and doubled and tripled the profit without doing any acquisitions. During that period of time, we didn't need to raise equity and we didn't. So, but even though we weren't raising equity, even though we were not going to the back of the capital market chain, we still paid extremely rigorous attention to how we doing on the numbers. That's our job. Our job as executives, as managers, custodians of this business is to produce results and that's measured ultimately in financial results. It's also produced in fin in operating results. It's also concerned of customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction. But all those things lead to financial metrics and you've got to stay focused. You have to have the whole organization focused on delivering those financial metrics and that's how you deliver them. It's it's a conscious intention and a sense of honor and a sense of I need to do this. This is this is what we need to do. This is our promises. Promises made, promises kept.
对金钱驱动力的看法与薪酬设计
Speaker B: 当人们告诉你他们不是被金钱驱动的,你会起疑心。为什么?
Original English
Speaker B: When people tell you they're not motivated by money, you get suspicious. Why?
Speaker A: 嗯,实际上,如果有人不被金钱驱动,我非常尊重他们。我认识很多艺术家,认识很多音乐家。我有一些朋友和亲戚是教授或退休教授,在学术界。音乐家不在乎钱,我是说,他们真的不在乎钱。他们不会去想,他们不读《华尔街日报》,他们对那个完全不感兴趣。我尊重这一点。他们在某种意义上有一种更高的召唤,他们专注于生活中更深层的部分。但是,那不是我想招进公司的人。我希望公司里的人绝对是被金钱驱动的,是纯粹的资本家,是想为自己和家人赚钱的人,然后我们可以找到一种方式,让他们成为我们公司的一员,帮助我们为股东赚钱,这样我们就能付给他们比别处更多的钱。我在高层有过很多人,让很多人成为百万富翁、千万富翁。我有人成为亿万富翁——不,是几千万富翁。有一个人赚了超过一亿美元。现在还有几个人正在朝着赚非常大笔钱的方向前进。这是好事。这是成功的产物,因为我们已经把每个人的薪酬都绑定了。我们在薪酬方案上非常用心。我们把他们的薪酬与为我们的大目标做贡献挂钩。他们能赚到所有这些钱的唯一方式,就是他们在为股东赚钱。所以我喜欢高管薪酬方案中包含很大一部分股权,而这部分股权取决于 TSR,即股东总回报。我们会看我们的股票表现如何,与所谓的标普……
Original English
Speaker A: Well, I actually respect people highly if they're not motivated by money. Uh, I know a lot of artists. I know a lot of musicians. I have um friends and relatives who are professors or retired professors in academia. Musicians not into money. I mean, they're not into money. They don't think about they don't read the Wall Street Journal. They're not interested in that whatsoever. And and I respect that. They're they have a higher calling in a way. They're they're focused on some deeper parts of life. Um, but that's not who I want in my company. I want my company people who are absolutely motivated by money, who are raw capitalists, who people who want to make money for themselves and their families, and that we can figure out a way that by being part of our company, they can help us make money for shareholders so that we can pay them more money here they can make somewhere else. I've had people on the senior level make many, many, many people make become millionaires, multi-millionaires. I've had people become tens of millionaires. I had one person who made over hundred million dollars. I have couple people now who are on track to make very very large amounts of money. This is a good thing. This is a this is a outgrowth of success because we've tied everybody's compensation. We've been very thoughtful about compensation plans. We've tied their compensation to contributing to our big goals. And the only way they can make all this money is if they're making money for shareholders. So I love compensation plans for the senior executives that have a big component of equity that's tied that's dependent on TSR, total shareholder return. So we look at what are the how does our stock perform versus called S&P
股权激励与薪酬设计
Brad Jacobs:如果是第500名,那我们在什么百分位?如果我们低于,比如说第55百分位,我就不太确定他们是否应该获得任何股权,我也不确定股权是否应该归属。我可以论证,如果我们只拿到大约一半的结果,我们在给出的业绩上就非常平庸。那不是人们投资我们的原因。主权财富基金或养老基金这些大型投资者给我们钱,是因为他们期望我们获得比普通公司高得多的回报。所以,我喜欢让人们押注自己,这样如果我们的股东回报低于55%左右,我就不希望它归属。如果是65%,就归属一部分。如果是75%,就归属更多。如果是85%、90%、95%,我希望它双倍归属。我希望他们赚到原本两倍的钱。所以,我希望他们的利益与股东一致。我希望达到这样的效果:股东们会说,“哇,我真心希望高级管理团队发大财,因为他们唯一能发财的方式,就是我们在投资回报上击败所有竞争对手。”所以,我喜欢这样发生。我喜欢这种情况出现。
关于高盛薪酬计划,我喜欢的一点是——很多很多年前,当他们还是合伙制的时候,我为他们做过咨询——他们薪酬计划的一大块,我现在不太了解他们现在的薪酬计划了,但回到他们还是私人合伙制的时候,很大一块,比如相当大比例的薪酬,是基于有多少其他合伙人说你在他们正在做的事情上帮助了他们。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: If we're the 500th, what percentile are we? If we're less than, call it, the 55th percentile, I'm not so sure they should get any, I don't think equity should vest. I could argue that if we're only getting roughly half, roughly, we're very middling in the results we're giving. That's not why people invested in us. People gave us, the sovereign wealth funds or pension, these big investors, they've given us money because they expect us to be much, much higher returns than the average company. So, I like to have people bet on themselves so that if our shareholder returns are less than 55% or so, I don't want it to vest. If it's 65%, vest some. If it's 75%, vest more. If it's 85%, 90%, 95%, I want it to double vest. I want them to make twice as much as they would otherwise. So, I want their interest aligned with the shareholders. I want it to be so that the shareholders are saying, "Wow, I really hope senior management team makes a fortune because the only way they're going to make a fortune is if we're beating all the competition in terms of the returns with our investment." So, I like that to happen.
One thing I liked about Goldman Sachs's compensation plan that I consulted for them, uh, years and years ago, when they were a partnership — a big chunk of their compensation plan, I'm not up to date on their compensation plan now, but back when they were a private partnership, a big chunk, like a significant percent of their comp, was based on how many other partners said that they helped them with what they were working on.
Speaker B:是的。
Original English
Speaker B: Yeah.
Brad Jacobs:换句话说,我不只是做我自己想做的事情,我还帮助了你,Shane,帮你处理你的客户。这种集体努力又回到了“超级有机体”的概念。所以,如果我们能让一线员工和中层管理人员因为帮助他人实现目标而获得经济上的回报——这是最大的回报,不是唯一的回报,但在经济上——那也是一件好事。所以我们有所有这些精心设计的定制薪酬方案,投入了大量思考,最终产生魔力,为股东创造超额回报。这就是我们的做法。
我们也会做一般的表彰,那不如经济奖励那么有力,但仍然是好事。我们有所有常见的东西,比如人们获得奖项、奖励、去各地旅游、总裁俱乐部、月度最佳员工等等。这些都是让人们自我感觉良好的东西,因为他们因为超越自我而得到认可。但如果让我只选一两个,是那种感觉良好的东西还是钱,我会选钱。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: In other words, I didn't just work on what I was trying to work on, but I helped you, Shane, with your client. And that group effort goes back to being a super organism. So if we can have people on the front line and the mid-level management be rewarded financially — that's the biggest reward, not the only reward, but financially rewarded for helping other people achieve their goals — that's a good thing too. So we have all these bespoke compensation plans that are well-designed, that a lot of thought goes into, that result in the magic, meaning creating outsized returns for shareholders. That's how we do it.
Now we also do just general recognition, which is not as powerful as financial rewards, but it's still a good thing. So we have all the usual things of people getting awards and rewards and trips to places and president's clubs and employee of the month. All those kind of things where people feel good about themselves because they're recognized for going above and beyond. But if I had to pick just one or two, the feel-good stuff or the money, I'm going with the money.
Speaker B:强大的激励因素。
Original English
Speaker B: Powerful motivator.
Speaker B:我喜欢所有东西都跟双赢挂钩。每个人都赢,对吧?这不是那种即使股东亏损你也能拿到超额薪酬的地方。
Original English
Speaker B: I like how everything's tied to sort of like win-win. Everybody wins, right? It's not one of those places where you can get outsized compensation even if our shareholders lose.
Brad Jacobs:那是很糟糕的事情。那是不公平的事情。那绝不应该发生。你应该在股东投资公司的表现和员工的表现之间建立完全的 alignment。要么这两个群体都赚很多钱,要么都不赚很多钱。股东无法控制这一点。他们所做的只是投入资金。员工控制这一点。如果员工被选得好,在良好的文化中良好地合作,使用技术,使用能让他们成功的方法,有良好的反馈循环,做出好的决策,并为这些决策负责,他们就会超越目标,交出数字,股价也会反映出来。股价上涨。那太好了。股东应该发财,员工也应该发财。任何一方都不应该以牺牲另一方为代价赚大钱。那不公平。那不对。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: That's a terrible thing. That's an unfair thing. That should never happen. You should have a complete alignment between how shareholders do with their investment in the company and how the employees do. Either both of those groups should be making a lot of money or not a lot of money. Now, the shareholders can't control that. All they're doing is investing their money. The employees control that. If the employees are selected well, are working together in a good culture well, are using technology, are using ways that they can succeed, have good feedback loops, and they're making good decisions and being held accountable for those decisions, they're exceeding them and delivering the numbers, and the share price reflects that. The share price goes up. That's great. The shareholder should make a fortune and the employee should make a fortune. Neither one should make a lot of money at the expense of the other. That's not fair. That's just not right.
被低估的资本配置者
Speaker B:你认为哪些CEO是被低估的资本配置者?
Original English
Speaker B: What CEOs do you think are underappreciated capital allocators?
Brad Jacobs:当我看到那些拿了钱、用少量资金变成巨额资金的公司,我立刻想到的是红杉资本的Mike Moritz。他曾是红杉资本的董事长。现在他从那个职位退休了,在红杉传承基金做高级顾问。但如果你看看他的职业生涯,他几十年来所做的一切——我对Mike研究得非常非常透彻,很多很多年了——他是我最早的外部投资者之一,早在1989年、1990年,资金就进入了我的United Waste Systems。他的天才之处是什么?他的天才在于拿少量的钱,把它们变成巨额的钱。你看看谷歌、雅虎、网景、Sun Microsystems,所有这些公司,他投入了相对少量的钱,最终价值达到100亿美元。那是好的资本配置。那是非常非常聪明的资本配置。所以我立刻想到Mike Moritz就是这样的人。
我想在工业领域,也有人经历了和我一样的过程,他们在资本配置上很自律,因此获得了高ROIC。你想想这些年来学院级别的CEO们。比如Dave Cote,他在Honeywell的那些年,在这方面非常非常严谨,非常数学化,非常冷静,非常聪明地处理“好了各位,我们有多少钱,我们在哪里能获得最大的回报”,然后非常非常仔细地分配资金。所以这些是我脑海中首先浮现的人。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: When I look at the companies that have taken money and had small amounts of money and turned it into huge amounts of money, immediately I'm thinking Mike Moritz at Sequoia. He was chairman of Sequoia Capital. Now he's retired from that and he's at Sequoia Heritage. He's a senior adviser at Sequoia Heritage. But if you look at his career, everything he's done over the decades — and I've studied Mike very, very well for many, many decades — he was one of my first outside investors. Capital came into my United Waste Systems way back in 1989, 1990. And what is he the genius of? He's the genius of taking small amounts of money and turning them into huge amounts of money. So you look at Google, at Yahoo, at Netscape, at Sun Microsystems, all these companies that he invested relatively small amounts of money in and ended up being worth like 10 billion bucks. That's good capital allocation. That's really, really intelligent capital allocation. So I immediately think of Mike Moritz for something like that.
I think in the industrial sector, there's also people who have gone through the same kind of processes I've gone through and been disciplined at how they allocate capital and achieved high ROIC as a result of that. You think of the academy-level CEOs over the years. Dave Cote, for example, when he was at Honeywell for years, he was very, very rigorous at this, very mathematical, very dispassionate, very intelligent about "okay guys, this is how much money we've got, where we're going to get the biggest returns," and allocating it very, very carefully. So those are the people who come to mind off the top of my head.
质量与速度的关系
Speaker B:跟我谈谈质量与速度之间的关系。
Original English
Speaker B: Talk to me about the relationship between quality and speed.
Brad Jacobs:你需要两者兼备。你会看到有些公司在质量上非常好,但天哪,他们花的时间太长了。所以实际上并没有实现你想要达到的目标。你会看到其他公司行动非常非常快,但那是牺牲了QA/QC,牺牲了质量保证和质量控制。真正的黄金法则是:如何快速行动,但聪明地快速行动,这样你就不会牺牲质量?事实上,你在快速行动的同时还在提高质量。这又回到了数学,回到了工程,回到了规划。理解地形,理解我们试图从系统中消除的确切低效是什么。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: You need both. So you see companies sometimes be really good on quality but, oh my god, they take forever. So it's really not achieving what you're trying to achieve. You see other companies that move real super fast, but it's at the sacrifice of QA/QC, of quality assurance, quality control. The real golden mean is: how do you move fast but move fast intelligently so that you're not sacrificing quality? In fact, you're moving fast and improving quality at the same time. That goes back to mathematics. That goes back to engineering. That goes back to planning. Understanding the lay of the land. Understanding what exactly is the inefficiency that we're trying to take out of the system.
过去一年最大的教训
Speaker B:你从过去一年学到的最大的教训是什么?
Original English
Speaker B: What's the biggest lesson you've learned from the past year?
Brad Jacobs:你可以选择任何时间框架,无论是过去12个月、过去10年、还是我的一生,然后问我学到的最大的教训是什么。可以肯定的是,我立刻会默认到与人有关的事情。首先我会默认到人,然后我会默认到技术。这两件事,因为它们是最大的杠杆点。它们是让事情产生差异的两大类。那么在过去一年里,我关于人学到了什么?
好吧,我关于人学到的一件事是,我现在在我的新公司里合作的团队,基本上还是那些人。他们以前就在我的团队里。他们要么来自XPO,要么来自某个前公司。我学到的是,让乐队重新聚在一起真是太棒了。和那些你认识的人一起工作,那些你一起打过仗的人,真是太棒了。你们分享过荣耀,也分享过痛苦。和那些我们一起经历过黑暗日子的人一起工作,真是太棒了。我们一起经历过辉煌的日子。我们一起赢过。我们一起胜利过。我们能接完对方的话。我们彼此理解。我们认识彼此的配偶。我们认识彼此的孩子。那是一件美好的事情。
我并不总是拥有这些。我确实带了一些人从一家公司到另一家公司。通常QXO最初的创始管理层都是前公司的人。我从中学到的一件事是,我真的很爱这些人。这些人是我真正尊敬和钦佩的人,我真的很感激能和他们一起工作。我觉得——我想我们都这么觉得——我们每个人都觉得,能和这个团队的其他人一起工作,是自己占了便宜。要找到一个这么大、而且彼此都真心相爱的团队,是非常难的。
Original English
Brad Jacobs: You could pick any time frame, whether it's last 12 months, last 10 years, or my whole life, and ask me what's the biggest lesson I've learned. For sure, I'm going to immediately default to something with people. First I'm going to default to people, and then I'm going to default to technology. These are the two things, because these are the two biggest needle movers. These are the two biggest categories of things that make a difference.
So in the last year, what have I learned about people? Okay. One thing I've learned about people is I'm working with a team now at my new company that's largely the same. They were on my teams before. They were either XPO or one of the ex-companies. And what I've learned is it's great to have the band back together. It's great to work with people that you know, that you've been in the battles with. You've shared the glories. You've shared the pain. It's great to work with people who we've been in the dark days together. We've been in the strong days together. We've won together. We've been victorious together. We can complete each other's sentences. We get each other. We know each other's spouses. We know each other's kids. That's a beautiful thing.
I haven't always had that. I have brought some people from company to company. Usually the initial founding management for QXO were all ex-company people. And one thing I've taken away from that is I really love these people. These are people I really just respect and admire, and I'm just so thankful that I get to work with them. Like I feel — and I think we all feel this way — I think all of us feel that each of us is getting the long end of the stick by working with the rest of this team. That it's very hard to find a team, a group of people this size, that all love each other.
相互尊重与钦佩
Speaker A: 我们彼此尊重,彼此钦佩对方的专业素养和个人品格。这是一件美好的事情。所以这对我来说是一个很大的收获。
Original English
Speaker A: That all respect each other, that all admire each other's professional and personal characteristics and traits. And that's a beautiful thing. So that's a big takeaway for me.
科技领域的两大收获
Speaker A: 现在我要说两个收获。过去12个月里,我在科技方面最大的收获是什么?我学到的是,我经历了一个研究数十个行业的过程,我逐一核对了清单,清单上有一项是:我能不能把科技带进去,用我们前瞻性的科技思维,以及我们愿意投资科技的决心,把钱花在刀刃上,投入到一个我们能获得竞争优势的行业里。我找到了一个行业——建材分销,在那里我可以做到这一点。我找到了一家公司,一个行业,那里有两万家企业,但只有六七家在做真正酷的科技应用。基本上就是这样。我不想说得这么负面,但我认为这是一个客观的评估。我认为大约有六家左右的公司,最大的那几家,还有几家中型公司,但主要是最大的那几家,它们以我们对待科技的同样精神来对待科技。现在,我们要加倍投入,花更多的钱,让最优秀的技术人员参与进来,就像我们一直以来在我们公司里做的那样。但如果你看看其他99%的公司,它们还停留在其他行业20年前的水平。我喜欢这样,Shane。我喜欢进入一个我能带来一些东西的行业,这些东西能帮助行业转型。我可以成为催化剂,提升整个行业的品质。我很乐意让大家兴奋起来,分享关于投资科技的愿景。
Original English
Speaker A: Now I'm going to go for a twofer on this. What's my biggest takeaway on technology in the last 12 months? On technology. What I learned was I went through this process of studying dozens of industries and I went through the checklist and one of the checklists, one of the things on the checklist was can I play, can I take technology and apply our tech forward mentality and our willingness to invest in technology and put our money where our mouth is and put money in technology in an industry where we'll get a competitive advantage. And I found an industry, building product distribution, that I can do that. I found a company, an industry that's got 20,000 companies and there's about six or seven that are doing really cool things in technology. And that's pretty much it. And I hate to say that so negatively, but I think that's an objective assessment of it. I think there's half a dozen or so companies, the biggest ones, that are a couple of medium-sized companies too, but mostly the biggest ones who are approaching technology in the same spirit that we approach technology. Now, we're going to double down on that and spend a lot more money and have the best technologists involved like we always have in our companies. But if you look at the 99% of all the other companies, they're where other industries were 20 years ago. Now, I like that, Shane. I like going into an industry where I got something I can bring to the industry that's going to help, that I can be transformational. I can be a catalyst to improve the quality of the industry. I'm happy to get everyone all excited and share the vision about investing in technology.
成功的定义
Speaker B: 但我们总是,或者我想我总是以同一个问题结束。对你来说,成功是什么?
Original English
Speaker B: But we always, or I guess I always end with the same question. What is success for you?
Speaker A: 在职业层面,这很简单。就是延续我为股东创造卓越回报的传统,为投资者带来惊人的回报。那是我的成绩单。那就是成功。句号。还有很多其他事情支撑着这一点。我必须有一个敬业的职场。我必须与当地社区保持良好的关系。我必须做好所有那些利益相关者的事情。但归根结底,成绩单只有一个问题:我的股价表现与基准相比如何,不仅是相对表现,还有绝对表现。所以,职业上肯定是关于股东增值的。我所做的所有事情——招聘人才、投入科技,我们过去几个小时谈论的所有事情——最终都是为了为股东赚钱。如果你不为股东赚钱,那只是空谈。所以对我来说,成功是由我的股价表现与其他人相比如何来定义的。这对我来说很清楚。在我心里非常清楚。在个人层面,你知道,这关乎我的家庭,关乎我的朋友,关乎我与他们的关系。关乎我能否创造一些方式,在我有限的时间里——因为我很投入事业,我没有大多数人那么多时间——但在那有限的时间里,我能否让那些经历变得充实?我能否让那些充满爱的时刻发生?有很多美好的事情在发生,有很多积极的能量。而且,它们是共生共荣的美妙关系,我在帮助我爱的人,他们也在帮助我。如果我能做到这一点,那就是成功。
Original English
Speaker A: On the professional level? It's very simple. It's continuing my tradition of generating superlative shareholder returns, like off the charts great returns for investors. That's my report card. That is success. Period. There's a lot of other things that build up to that. I have to have an engaged workplace. I have to have good relations with my local communities. I have to do all those good stakeholder stuff. But at the end of the day, the report card is one question: what is my share price performance versus the benchmark, and not only relative but absolute terms as well. So it's about stockholder appreciation for sure professionally. All the things I'm doing of hiring people and putting in technology, all the things we've been talking about the last couple hours, that all comes down to making money for shareholders. If you're not making money for shareholders, it's just jabber, it's just talk. So for me, success is defined by how is my stock price performance versus everybody else's. So that's clear for me. It's very clear in my mind. Personally, you know, it's about my family. It's about my friends. It's about my relationships with them. It's about can I create ways where in the limited times I don't have as much time as most people because I'm really into the business, but in the limited time that I do have, can I make those enriching experiences? Can I make those experiences where there's a lot of love in the room? There's a lot of good stuff going on. There's a lot of positive vibes. And they're very symbiotic, wonderful relationships where I'm helping the people I love and they're helping me. And if I can achieve that, that's success.
结束语
Speaker B: 太棒了。非常感谢你今天抽出时间。这是一次引人入胜且内容广泛的对话。
Original English
Speaker B: That's amazing. Thank you so much for your time today. This was a fascinating and wide-ranging conversation.
Speaker A: 我非常感谢这个机会,Shane。
Original English
Speaker A: I really appreciate the opportunity, Shane.