国防工业的万亿级机遇:自主化、商业化与美国工业基地的重建 a16z 2026-05-19

国防工业的代际机遇

Dino: 这里存在一个真正的代际机会,去建设这个国家未来 100 年所需要的东西。我们需要更多的创始人,需要更多的建设者,也需要政府内部有更多的人在推动变革。

Original English

Dino: There's a real generational opportunity to build what this country needs for the next 100 years and we need more founders. We need more builders and we need more folks in government pushing for change.

主持人: 在传统的国防工业基地 (DIB) 内部,我们经常会遇到非常令人沮丧的脆弱性,因为我们可能只有一个并不怎么盈利的唯一供应商,而这个供应商是专门为国防工业“量身定制”的。突然之间,我们就给自己制造了一系列的漏洞。这个房间里坐满了来自五角大楼各处的项目执行官 (PEO) 和项目经理 (PM)。当我们展望 2026 年共同建设并加快建设速度时,你想向这个群体传达的一个关键信息是什么?

Original English

Host: It's really frustrating how much fragility we encounter within the traditional defense industrial base because we have a sole supplier that's not really that profitable that was bespoke for the defense industry and all of a sudden we've really created our own set of vulnerabilities here. This room is filled with PEOs and PMs from across the Pentagon. What's one key message you'd like to send this group as we look to build together and build faster in 2026?

自主化技术对造船业的颠覆

主持人: 你是如何将 Seronics 的自主化技术与海军“不抛弃任何一个伙伴”的信念转化为合同的?自主化技术的突破又是如何让你为海军生产出更多、更快的产品的?

Original English

Host: How have you translated this alignment between Seronics's autonomy and the Navy's no man left behind ethos into contracts? and and how does how do autonomy breakthroughs actually allow you to build more faster products for the Navy?

Dino: 这个问题我会再回过头来详细说。我坚信,自主化开启的是以前从未存在过的能力。当然,战争在某些环节仍然需要人类的参与,但我亲眼见过,如果你有能力派机器人去,你就永远不应该派人去。你就是不应该这么做。所以,让我们利用机器人技术,在可以的地方保护人类生命。

自主化真正的开启钥匙是速度和规模。如果我坐在这里告诉部长,我们将建造过去 50 年一直在建的那种船,或者建造和中国一样的船,只是做得更好、更快、更便宜,那他应该礼貌地请我离开。你必须弯曲经济成本曲线。你必须造船更便宜,造船更快速。

你唯一能拨动的两个杠杆是材料成本和劳动力成本。我们买钢材的价格不可能比中国便宜,所以你必须对船只进行首要原则 (First Principles) 的重新设计,从根本上减少钢材的使用。你怎么做到的?你通过软件自主化数字化来进行建造。

劳动力工时也是一样。我们获得的每小时人工费率不可能比中国低。所以,让我们把造船速度提得更快。例如,我们的第一艘 Marauder 船大约消耗了 5 万个工时。为了让大家对数量级有个概念,我先声明这有点像苹果和橘子的类比,但一艘驱逐舰需要 700 万到 900 万个工时。

这就是自主化所开启的规模和速度。因为你可以重新设计整个平台,使其建造起来简单得多。然后你就拥有了所需的规模化能力,从而让尽可能多的人远离战斗场景。

Original English

Dino: So, that's one I'll come back to. What autonomy enables is, and I'm a I'm a huge believer in this, we're unlocking capability that didn't exist before. Like, warfare will require humans involvement at some point, but I've seen it. And you should never send a human if you have the ability to send a robot. you just shouldn't do it. So, let's leverage robotics and protect human life where we can. The real unlock to autonomy is speed and scale. Right? If I was sitting up here telling the secretary how we're going to build the same ships that we've been building for the last 50 years or the same ships that they're building in China, we're just going to do it better, faster, and cheaper. I mean, he should just politely ask me to leave. You have to bend the economic cost curve. You have to build ships cheaper. You have to build ships faster. The only two levers you have to pull are material costs and labor costs. We're not going to buy steel cheaper than they're buying it in China. So, you have to take a first principles design to the ship and just fundamentally use less steel. How do you do that? You build for software autonomy and digitization. Same thing on labor hours. We're not going to acquire a per hour labor rate cheaper than they're paying in China. So, let's build ships much faster. For example, Marauders using is about a 50,000 labor hour on our first ship. Just for order of magnitude, put it in frame of reference. Apples and oranges comparison here. I'm going to acknowledge that up front, but a destroyer is 7 to 9 million labor hours. So that's the scale and speed that autonomy unlocks because you can redesign the whole platform and make it much simpler to build and then you build the then you have the capability at the scale that you need to keep as many people as possible out of combat scenarios.

重建美国工业基地与“宜家化”劳动力

主持人: 你提到了工厂以及将自主化引入实际制造过程。你投入了真金白银来重建美国的工业基地,最著名的是大规模扩张了你在路易斯安那州的造船厂,并准备启动 Port Alpha。我们很期待很快能听到那里的消息。当你横跨美国建立制造业时,你是如何考虑投资那些被遗忘的地区和人群的?对于你瞄准的不同客户群,规模化的过程有什么相似、不同或互补之处?

Original English

Host: You you you mentioned um the sort of factories and bringing bringing autonomy into the actual manufacturing uh processes. You've put real money behind rebuilding the American industrial base, most notably a major expansion of your Louisiana shipyard. Um, as well as getting prepared to launch Port Alpha. We're excited. Uh, we're excited for news there at some point soon. Um, how are you thinking about Seronic investing in some of these forgotten areas um, forgotten demographics as you build out manufacturing across the US and has how has scaling been similar, different, complimentary for the different customer bases that you're targeting?

Dino: 劳动力是至关重要的。我和部长之前一直在聊劳动力的问题。我们必须重建劳动力来支持海事工业基地。你不可能在一夜之间创造出拥有 15 年经验的人。所以这又回到了对船只设计的“首要原则”方法:设计船只,使其在一开始就不需要 15 年的焊接经验。这样你就可以真正地重建和重新培训劳动力。

我想借用我们制造主管的一句话,他说:“少一点百科全书,多一点宜家 (IKEA)。”就像每个人都能组装家具一样。如果一个来自福特、通用、波音、SpaceX 甚至制造火箭的人,我们不能让他们快速、高效地学会造船,那就是我们的错。这意味着我们的设计不够简单,或者我们的流程、工作指令、培训材料或其他方面有问题。所以,这就是重建劳动力、改变文化,重新定义在造船厂工作的意义——让它变酷,为未来而建,给人使命感,并在此基础上提供工作保障。

Original English

Dino: I mean, the workforce is critical, right? The secretary and I were talking about the workforce earlier. We have to rebuild the workforce to support the maritime industrial base, right? You can't create people with 15 years of experience overnight. So it goes back to the first principles approach design of the ship. Design the ship so you actually don't need 15 years of welding experience to build it in the first place. Then you can actually rebuild and retrain the workforce. Um I'll steal one of the lines from our head of manufacturing. He says, "Less like an encyclopedia, more like IKEA." It's like everybody can build furniture. If somebody can't come out of somebody that's building a car for Ford or General Motors or an airplane at Boeing or a rocket ship for SpaceX and we can't get them highly effective building ships quickly, that's our fault. That means our design isn't simple enough. if we don't have the processes or the work instructions or the training materials or something else. So, it's rebuilding and recreating the workforce and changing the culture, what it actually means to work at a shipyard again, making it cool, building for the future, giving people a mission, and giving people job security behind that.

投资与生产能力的约束

主持人: 你提到了工作保障。顺着投资的话题,Honorable Duffy,当你观察如何重建国防工业基地时,你希望看到公司、以及或许还有私人资本进行什么样的投资?

Original English

Host: You mentioned the job security piece. Um, so following up generally on your investments, um, Honorable Duffy, what investments do you want to see companies making as we look to rebuild the defense industrial base and maybe I'll expand that to companies and private capital?

Duffy: 我认为 Dino 在利用现代制造方面做得很对。随着我们深入研究传统工业,我们发现,——顺便提一下,国防安全合作局 (DSCA) 现在也归五角大楼我的管辖范围了——生产确实是我们履行外国军事销售订单的最大制约因素。生产率通常是根据美国国防部的预算规模来校准的。

我们不能再生活在这些约束之下了。在过去的两个月里,你已经看到我们与传统工业达成的一些交易,我们激励他们投入自己的私人资本,用自己的资金来扩大生产。我认为这不再是像传统那样向美国政府伸手要钱,而是激励工业界去做 Dino 正在做的事情:真正实现现代化,对他们生产的效率和产能负责。

我认为这是我们希望在全行业看到的根本转变。这为已经这样做的初创公司提供了一个公平的竞争环境,同时也让拥有我们需要能力的传统国防承包商进入这种模式。

Original English

Duffy: Well, I think Dino's got it right in terms of how we can leverage modern manufacturing. I mean, one of the things that we're finding as we dig down into traditional industry and as we look at, you'd mentioned the transition of Defense Security Cooperation Agency under my uh jurisdiction now in the Pentagon. Production really is the biggest constraint for us when it comes to fulfilling our foreign military sales orders and production is generally the rate of production is generally kind of calibrated to what the US Department of Def budget looks like. uh we can no longer kind of live within those constraints and you've seen some of the deals that we've uh been able to do with traditional industry in the last two months where we've um incentivized them to expend their own private capital to expand production with their own funding which I think then instead of being a handout from the US government as it's traditionally been incentivizes uh industry to do what Dino is doing with his company which is really modernize how we're take ownership on the actual efficiency and cap production capacity that they're producing. I think that's a fundamental shift that we want to see industrywide, which I think levels the playing field for both the new startups that are already practicing this way and bringing our traditional defense contractors who have capability that we need into that uh into that uh construct as well.

“商业优先”与工业韧性

主持人: Dino,回到你这里。当你继续在国防和商业市场加速和规模化建设时,Port Alpha 将在支持你的增长和扩张方面发挥什么作用?特别是,你发现商业市场对于支持你的国防市场有多重要?

Original English

Host: Yeah. Yeah. Completely. Um maybe Dino, moving back to you, um what role will Port Alpha play in supporting your growth and expansion as you continue building for both the defense and commercial markets at speed and scale? And in particular, how have you found the commercial market to be important to support your defense market?

Dino: 直白地说,Port Alpha 是一个代际项目。我们的目标是建造世界上最大的船厂之一(如果不是最大的话),专注于自主化平台,专注于海事工业的未来。解锁商业市场,建造更大的船只、货柜船、散货船、油轮,这些东西能实现能源主导权

拥有商业市场绝对关键。因为归根结底,我们的目标是在和平时期为国防部提供战时生产能力。如果我们不能以经济可行的方式进入商业市场,那么我们就会一直盯着政府,等待下一个合同工具和下一张支票来支撑公司的寿命。也许是 5 年、10 年、20 年、30 年,但最终我们可能会回到起点。这就是为什么商业市场如此重要。你会看到《海事行动计划》的一个重点就是美国的商业航运业。

Original English

Dino: Yeah. I I mean to put it bluntly, I mean Port Alpha is a generational pro project. I mean, we're looking at building one of, if not the largest shipyard in the world, focused on autonomous platforms, focused on the future of the maritime industry, unlocking the commercial market, building larger vessels, cargo containers, bulk carriers, oil tankers, things that enable things that like energy dominance, right? It's absolutely critical to have that commercial market because at the end of the day what what our goal is is to provide the Department of War wartime production capacity during peace time. And if we can't enter the commercial market in a viable what an economic manner, then we're just looking to the government for the next contract vehicle and the next paycheck to support our company's longevity. And maybe it's 5 years from now, maybe it's 10 years from now, maybe it's 20, maybe it's 30, but eventually we we may end up right back where we are. That's why the commercial market is so important. And you see a big focus with the maritime action plan is on the commercial shipping industry within the United States.

Duffy: 如果我可以补充一点,商业优先 (Commercial First) 是我们采购转型战略的主要元素,它为工业基地提供了韧性。传统的国防工业基地内部确实存在令人沮丧的脆弱性,因为我们只有一个并不怎么盈利的唯一供应商,它是针对国防工业定制设计的。突然之间,我们就制造了自己的漏洞。

如果我们能优先考虑商业优先,并将可生产性 (Producability) 作为设计开发的主要输入,这将为国防部创造各种韧性和收益。我认为这是我们成功的关键。

Original English

Duffy: Yeah, I think if I can jump in on that, I mean commercial first is a major element of our acquisition transformation strategy and the resilience it provides the industrial base. I mean it's it's really uh frustrating how many how much fragility we encounter within the traditional defense industrial base because we have a sole supplier that's not really that profitable that was um a feeder to a design that was bespoke for the defense industry and all of a sudden we've really created our own set of vulnerabilities here. If we can prioritize commercial first and producability as a primary um input to the development of a design that creates all kinds of resilience and benefits for the department of defense as well. So that's I think key to our success.

给建设者们的建议

主持人: 在我们的团队中,我们经常说:“没有工业基地就没有国防工业基地。”这两者确实是相辅相成的。Honorable Duffy,这个房间里坐满了来自五角大楼的 PEO 和 PM,还有许多正在为国防部工作的创始人。当你展望 2026 年共同快速建设时,你想传达的关键信息是什么?

Original English

Host: Yeah. On on our team we often say there's no uh defense industrial base without an industrial base. So the two really go hand in hand. Um honorable Duffy, this room is filled with PEOs and PMs from across the Pentagon as well as many founders that are building for the department. What's one key message you'd like to send this group uh as we look to build together and build faster in 2026?

Duffy: 首先,我要对在座驱动创新、突破官僚主义、按时交付作战人员所需能力的领导者们表示感谢。我想说的另一条信息是:这真的取决于这个房间里的每一个人。

我们意识到,作为采购转型战略的一部分,成功的唯一途径就是让百花齐放,确保我们正在消除公司和项目领导层交付最佳能力的障碍。这需要时间,需要合作。我们在努力改变五角大楼文化的一件事是,在整个采购系统的层级中,直接与工业界保持最大限度的沟通,并确保清楚了解到底是什么在阻碍进展。

我们希望继续扩大这一点。我邀请在座的每一个人,与我的团队或其他团队接触,直接说:“嘿,这行不通。我们如何消除这个障碍?”因为我们致力于确保我们能尽可能快地前进。

Original English

Duffy: Well, let me start with an expression of gratitude for the leaders in this room who are um who are driving innovation, who are fighting through the bureaucracy to deliver the war the the the capability that the war fighter needs on schedule. Um and I think uh the other message I would say is it's really up to everybody in this room, right? uh we recognize I think as a part of this acquisition transformation strategy the only way for to to succeed is really to uh let a thousand flowers bloom and ensure that we are removing the obstacles to companies and program leadership to deliver the best capability the war fighter needs on schedule and that's going to take time and it's going to take cooperation you know one of the things that we've been trying to do as we try to change culture within the Pentagon is maximum communication throughout the hierarchy of the acquisition system directly with industry and ensuring that there's um clear understanding what's getting in the way. We want to continue to to expand on that. And I invite everybody in this room uh to engage with my team or others and just say, "Hey, this is not working. How can we remove this barrier?" Because we're committed to making sure we can go as fast as possible.

主持人: 谢谢。Dino,给那些可能比你落后一两步的其他建设者们一些建议。

Original English

Host: Thank you. and and and Dino advice to other builders who might be a click or two a click or two behind you.

Dino: 找到你所相信的东西,然后去追求它。现在存在一个真正的代际机会,去建设这个国家未来一百年所需要的东西。我们需要更多的创始人,需要更多的建设者,也需要政府中有更多像部长这样推动变革的人。

这不是一个公司、一个人就能解决的问题。我们需要全国范围内的伙伴关系。对于那些考虑进入这个领域、建立公司的人,我会说,建立起你的信念,然后全身心地投入其中。因为国家需要你,而合作伙伴就在这里支持你。

Original English

Dino: Yep. Find find what you believe in and then go for it. Right. We're in a there there's a real generational opportunity to build what this country needs for the next hundred years. And we need more founders. We need more builders. And we need more folks in government like the secretary pushing for change. This isn't a one company, one person is going to solve this problem. We need a partnership across the country and folks that are thinking about getting into this space, building a company. I would say, you know, build the conviction and what you believe in and then go all in on it because the country needs you and the partners are here to support you.

主持人: 太棒了。非常感谢两位,Honorable Duffy,Dino。非常愉快。

Original English

Host: Amazing. Thank you both so much, honorable Duffy Dino. It's been a real pleasure. I can't do it.

📌 文中提及的人物和组织

公司/组织: Seronics, Pentagon, Department of Defense, a16z

产品/模型: Marauder, Port Alpha

关键字: defense-tech autonomous-platforms industrial-base software-defined-hardware manufacturing-innovation