乌克兰和平计划:俄罗斯的影子与全球哗然
来自《纽约时报》,我是雷切尔·艾布拉姆斯,这里是《The Daily》节目。
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From the New York Times, I'm Rachel Abrams [music] and this is the daily.
上周,一份旨在结束乌克兰战争的美国和平计划被泄露,在许多人看来,它似乎是由俄罗斯撰写的。在很大程度上,事实确实如此,这引发了全球范围内的强烈抗议,迫使美国官员在几天内撤回、修改并重新思考他们的方针。
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When a US peace plan to end the war in Ukraine was leaked last week, it looked to many like it had been written by Russia. And to a large degree, it [music] had been. And it sparked a global outcry that has forced American officials to backtrack, [music] revise, and rethink their approach in the days since.
今天,我的同事金·巴克和戴维·桑格将讲述导致这项争议性计划的幕后过程,以及它为何在乌克兰领导人脆弱的时刻出现。
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Today, my colleagues [music] Kim Barker and David Sanger on the backroom process that led to the controversial [music] plan and why it comes at a vulnerable moment for Ukraine's leader.
今天是11月26日星期三。
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It's Wednesday, November 26th.
在我们开始之前,金,我只有一个问题。你戴的是什么帽子?
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>> Before we start, I just have one question, Kim. What is that hat?
哦,这顶帽子很特别,是用羽毛做的。我非常喜欢它。我曾丢失了很长时间,现在又找回来了。所以,这就是我现在戴的帽子。
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>> Oh, this is like this crazy hat that uh is made of feathers. I I love it. And I I had lost it for a long time, and I just found it. So, that's the hat I'm wearing now.
天哪,它看起来很棒。我之前分辨不出它是不是那种苏联式的、毛茸茸又很保暖的帽子。
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>> Oh my god, it looks It looks great. I couldn't tell if it was actually like one of those Soviet type hats that I is like very furry and very warm. So
它会跟我一起回到基辅。
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>> it it'll be coming with me back to Kev.
太棒了。
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>> Amazing.
那里很冷,伙计。
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>> It's cold there, man.
我听说过。金·巴克,欢迎来到节目。
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>> I've heard. Kim Barker, welcome to the show.
非常感谢邀请我。
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>> Thanks very much for having me.
所以,过去一周关于乌克兰战争和可能结束战争的和平计划有很多新闻。但这并不是我们第一次听说结束战争的计划。目前很难判断什么是真正的进展,什么不是。所以我们请你来帮助我们理解发生了什么。
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>> So, there has been a lot of news about the war in Ukraine this past week and a possible peace plan that might actually end it. But this is not the first time that we have heard about plans to end the war. And it is kind of hard to tell at this point what is real movement and what is not. So we're turning to you to try to understand what's happened.
你在乌克兰待了很长时间,报道了这场战争。你对过去几天发生的事情有什么看法?是的,乌克兰也一直非常困惑,甚至有些措手不及,因为上周四这份28点和平计划被泄露了。突然间,乌克兰的每个人都在审视这份和平计划,他们逐点查看,然后对自己说:“这听起来太像俄罗斯的论调了,就像俄罗斯一直想要的一切。”但与此同时,他们又听说这是一份美国计划,而且乌克兰面临着立即接受它的巨大压力。
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>> You've spent a lot of time in Ukraine. You've covered the war. What do you make of what has happened in the past few days? Yeah, it's been very confusing and a bit of whiplash in Ukraine as well with what happened last Thursday when this 28 point peace plan was leaked. And all of a sudden, everybody in Ukraine is looking at this peace plan and they're looking at every single point and saying to themselves, "This sounds an awful lot like Russian talking points, like everything Russia ever wanted." But then at the same time, they're hearing that this is an American plan and there's a lot of pressure for Ukraine to accept it right away.
你必须了解目前的实际情况。人们对这场持续多年的战争感到非常疲惫。我想,如果你问很多乌克兰人,他们会说:“是的,让我们达成某种对乌克兰来说还不错的和平协议。”对吧?他们希望得到一些东西。但与此同时,前线存在兵力不足的问题,而且每晚都有导弹和无人机袭击民用目标。
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>> And you have to understand the situation on the ground right now. You've got people who are very tired of this war going on for years. And I think a lot of Ukrainians, if you were to ask them, they would say, "Yes, let's get some sort of peace deal that's not too bad for Ukraine." Right? They would like to get something. But at the same time, you've got this issue along the front lines where you've got not enough troops and then you've got on a nightly basis this barrage of missiles and drones coming in and attacking civilian targets.
考虑到所有这些,乌克兰人如此渴望结束战争是完全可以理解的。但你也提到了这份被泄露的和平计划,它似乎至少在最初严重偏向俄罗斯。我只是想知道,鉴于此,乌克兰人对此有何反应?
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>> Given all of that, it makes total sense why Ukrainians would be so desperate to end the war. But you also mentioned this peace plan that was leaked that has seemed to at least initially heavily favor Russia. And I just wonder given that how did Ukrainians react to it?
我的意思是,我们反复听到的词是“投降”。我从那些等待亲人——几天前被导弹击中的建筑中取出他们已故亲人遗体的人们那里听到了这个词。投降和厌恶。他们认为:“不,我们已经流了太多血。我们不能就这样放弃我们为之奋斗的一切,一无所有。”
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>> I mean universally the word that we heard over and over again was capitulation. I heard it from people who were waiting for their relatives, their dead relatives to be taken out of this building that had been hit by missiles a couple days before. Capitulation [snorts] and disgust. And the idea that like no, we have lost too much blood. the idea that we're just gonna give up everything we've been fighting for for nothing.
不。同时,你必须明白,这项提议是在乌克兰总统泽连斯基(Volodymyr Zelenskyy: 乌克兰总统)政治地位最弱的时候提出的。
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>> No. And also at the same time, you have to understand that this proposal is coming along when Ukrainian President Vladimir Zalinski could not be in a weaker position politically
因为过去几周爆发的腐败丑闻。
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>> because of this corruption scandal, you know, that's unfolded in the last couple of weeks.
“迈达斯行动”:核电巨头的腐败案
那么,请告诉我们这件事。这个故事从何说起?这个故事始于大约15个月前,当时一项名为迈达斯行动(Operation Midas: 一项针对乌克兰核电公司的反腐调查)的调查开始针对一家名为Anerggo Atom(乌克兰国家核电公司)的公司,这是一家乌克兰的核电巨头。它是一家国有公司。该国的反腐机构已经调查这家公司大约15个月了。他们有超过一千小时的窃听录音。他们基本上正在调查泽连斯基总统的关键盟友,这些人被指控从这家公司贪污了一亿美元。这件事于11月10日星期一早上首次公之于众,当时该国的反腐机构公布了一系列视频,概述了一个巨大的腐败计划和他们的调查。
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>> So tell us about that. Where does that story start? Well, that story starts about 15 months ago when an investigation called Operation Midas started into a company called Anerggo Atom, which is this a nuclear power giant in Ukraine. And it's a state-owned company. And the country's anti-corruption agencies have been investigating this company for about 15 months. They've got wire taps of like more than a thousand hours. And they're basically looking at key allies of President Zalinski who are accused of embezzling a hundred million dollars from this company. And it first comes out into public knowledge on Monday morning, November 10th, when the country's anti-corruption agencies unveiled the series of videos outlining a huge corruption scheme and their investigation.
接下来的两天里,这些视频每隔几个小时就会发布一集,披露越来越多耸人听闻的细节。
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And then over the next two [music] days, these videos unroll every few hours, giving more and more salacious details.
它们的主角是一位光线很好、制作精良的侦探。你听着这些,会觉得:“哦,这太戏剧性了。这里正在发生什么。”
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>> And they feature a detective who's very well lit, very well produced. And you're listening to it and you're feeling like, "Oh, this is dramatic. Something's happening here."
然后你会听到这些被窃听的对话,这些人给自己起了代号,比如“火箭”、“糖人”、“切格瓦拉”和“教授”。
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And then you go into these sort of like wiretapped conversations of these people who have given themselves code names like Rocket and Sugarman and Cheuavara and the professor.
通过这些视频,你了解到这些人赚的一些钱,竟然是来自原本应该用于建造掩体,以保护核电站变电站和电力变压器等设施免受俄罗斯导弹和无人机袭击的资金。
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And you learn through these videos that some of the money that these guys are making is coming from money that was supposed to be spent to build shelters to protect things like nuclear power substations and power transformers and things like that from Russian missiles and drones.
每个视频的结尾都像是在说:“未完待续,更多精彩即将到来。”
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And each episode ends with something like, you know, more to come and to be continued.
这确实让乌克兰人紧盯着他们的手机。
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>> And it really has got Ukrainians glued to their phones.
所以,如果我理解没错的话,这个反腐机构基本上是在向公众发布一个关于这场丑闻的迷你剧?
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>> So, it sounds like basically, if I have this right, this anti-corruption agency is releasing almost like a miniseries about this scandal to the public.
是的。我的意思是,我一开始就跟一位编辑开了这个玩笑。我说,这感觉有点像Netflix。然后我开始查看所有发布的社交媒体内容。这正是乌克兰人所说的。你看到比尔·哈德尔吃爆米花等待下一集发布的表情包。你有一种感觉,天哪,这真的会牵扯到总统吗?这会牵扯到总统的幕僚长吗?接下来谁会出现在这些录音带里?我显然不是乌克兰反腐调查方面的专家,但至少在美国,这种公告方式有点不寻常。他们为什么要发布这样的视频,而不是,比如说,召开新闻发布会?
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>> Yeah. I mean, I made that joke in the very beginning to an editor. I'm like, it kind of feels like Netflix. And then started looking at all the sort of social media that was being put out there. And it's exactly what Ukrainians were saying. You had like the memes of Bill Hater eating popcorn waiting for the next thing to drop. And you had this sense that, oh my god, is this going to actually reach the president? Is this going to reach the president's chief of staff? Who is going to be on these tapes next? I'm obviously no expert in Ukrainian anti-corruption investigations, but at least in the United States, that kind of announcement would be a bit unusual. Why would they release videos like this as opposed to just, I don't know, a press conference?
是的。我的意思是,在美国,或者任何地方,你都会看到律师站在讲台后面,宣读指控,或者可能只是以书面形式提交。你不会有这种感觉,说我们要围绕我们的调查制作一系列宣传视频,甚至在我们把任何人送上法庭之前,对吧?这非常不寻常。我的意思是,其中一个目标显然可能是为了让这些机构免受总统办公室的任何反弹。他们争取人民的支持。他们获得受众,这在最初几天似乎正在发生。
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Yeah. I mean, in the States, anywhere really, you would have a lawyer standing behind a lectern and like reading out the charges or maybe they would just be filed in paper. you wouldn't have this sense of like we're going to have a promotional series of videos around our investigation before we've even brought anybody to court, right? It's very unusual. I mean, one of the goals clearly could be to inoculate the agencies against any sort of blowback from the president's office. They get the people on their side. They get an audience and that seemed to be happening over the first couple of days.
再多告诉我一些。乌克兰人对这些视频有什么反应?
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>> Tell me more about that. What was the reaction from Ukrainians to these videos?
他们感到震惊。人们竟然从本应保护我们免受俄罗斯导弹和无人机袭击的掩体中赚钱,尤其是在我们现在正进入冬季,而电力供应情况岌岌可危的时候。
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>> They were horrified. People are making money off of shelters that are supposed to protect us from Russian missile and drone attack, especially when you have us going into a winter right now where
电力供应情况非常不稳定。俄罗斯一直在瞄准所有这些发电厂,你几乎全天候停电。所以,听到这些人,听到这些人在窃听录音中谈论从这件事中赚钱,有一种愤怒感。这很恶心,很令人作呕。乌克兰人非常沮丧。你知道,泽连斯基是凭借反腐承诺上任的,对吧?现在正在打仗。战争意味着戒严。你不能选举新的人。这是他们的总统。他们希望国家团结一致。但这是你第一次感觉到反对泽连斯基的力量正在形成。你感觉到政党正在联合起来。议会中有人呼吁进行不信任投票。
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>> it's pretty touchandgo with a power situation. Russia has really been targeting all these places that generate power and you've got blackouts going pretty much around the clock. So there's a sense of indignation hearing these people, hearing these men talk on these wire taps about making money off of this. It's gross. It's disgusting. And Ukrainians were quite upset. You know, Zalinsky rode into office on anti-corruption pledges, right? And there is a war. There's a war that means that it's martial law. You can't elect somebody new. And this is their president. They want the country to hold together. But for the first time, you had this sense that opposition was forming against Zalinski. You had the sense that the political parties were getting together. There were calls for a vote of no confidence in parliament.
泽连斯基对这场丑闻的回应是什么?
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>> What is Zinsk's response been to the scandal?
我的意思是,泽连斯基对这场丑闻的回应是:“看,如果本届政府或任何地方有人犯有腐败罪,他们就应该在法庭上付出代价。任何犯下腐败罪的人都需要承担后果,对吧?”但他没有具体谈论这些指控。他没有谈论被指控的盟友。他的幕僚长在这些指控首次出现后消失了五天多,这非常不寻常。所以感觉政府只是保持沉默,看看它是否会平息,然后他们再想办法。
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>> I mean, Silinsk's response to the scandal has been, look, if there's anybody, you know, guilty of corruption in this administration or anywhere, they should pay in court. Anybody who commits corruption needs to face the consequences, right? But he has not been specific about these charges. He's not talked about his allies who have been accused of this. Um his chief of staff after these accusations first appeared disappeared for more than 5 days, which was highly unusual. So it felt like the administration was just kind of going quiet, seeing if it was going to blow over, and then they would figure it out.
但它并没有平息。它根本没有平息。它像滚雪球一样越滚越大,直到这份和平计划被泄露。这份和平计划对俄罗斯非常有利。事实上,它看起来就像是俄罗斯撰写了一些提议。
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But it was not blowing over. It was not blowing over at all. It was snowballing until this peace plan leaked. And this peace plan was very beneficial to Russia. In fact, it looked as if Russia had written some of the proposals.
亲俄和平计划的条款与乌克兰的抵制
其中包括,乌克兰将永远不能加入北约(NATO: 北大西洋公约组织)。
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>> Among them, Ukraine would never be able to join NATO ever.
嗯。
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>> Mhm.
乌克兰将永久保持一支规模较小的军队。
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>> Ukraine would permanently have to have a smaller military.
乌克兰将不得不割让俄罗斯甚至尚未占领的领土。
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Ukraine would have to seed territory that Russia hadn't even won yet.
所有这些基本上都是乌克兰的“不启动项”。
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>> All of these being non-starters basically for Ukraine.
所有这些都是“不启动项”。
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>> All of these are non-starters.
特别是关于拥有更小规模军队的想法。如果你看看俄罗斯一直试图在这里咬一口乌克兰,那里咬一口乌克兰的历史,对吧?这不会发生。人们不会接受的。但与此同时,美国也施加了很大压力,比如“达成这项协议,签署这项协议,接受这项和平,然后让我们继续前进。”你有一种感觉,也许这份和平计划之所以被提出,也许它之所以被推动,是因为泽连斯基看起来如此虚弱,以至于他别无选择,只能接受它。但这并没有发生。相反,结果恰恰相反。
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Especially the idea of having a smaller military. If you look at the history of how Russia has been trying to take a bite of Ukraine there, a bite of Ukraine here, right? Like it's it's not going to happen. People are not going to accept that. M but also at the same time there was a lot of pressure coming from America like make this deal sign this deal accept this peace and like let's move on and you have this sense that maybe this peace plan was coming out maybe it was being pushed because Zalinsky looked so weak that he had no choice but to accept it but that is not what happened. Instead it was the opposite.
泽连斯基站了出来,他回到了战时早期总统的那种状态,他制作这些视频,非常严肃,他告诉全国人民,他们现在有一个选择。这是他们面临过的最艰难的选择之一。我们是要牺牲我们的尊严,还是愿意失去这个关键的伙伴?这个伙伴就是美国。
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Zilinski came out and he's returning to his early wartime president sort of disposition where he's doing these videos and he's very serious and he's telling the country that they have a choice right now. It's one of the toughest choices they've had. Are we going to sacrifice our dignity or are we going to be willing to lose this key partner? That partner being the United States.
外交官。
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diplomat. [music]
泽连斯基并没有像一天前,甚至几小时前那样处于非常弱势的地位,相反,他以一个 defiant leader(不屈不挠的领导人)的形象出现,全国人民都支持他的说法,那就是我们不会轻易屈服。但这仍然让泽连斯基处于一个非常艰难的境地,因为他必须处理这份和平计划,处理他希望继续获得支持的美国,以及处理特朗普政府,并希望看起来他们正在配合,真诚地进行谈判,以达成一项结束这场战争的协议,这正是特朗普政府真正、真正想要的。但他必须在不牺牲一切的情况下做到这一点。
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>> And instead of being in the very weak position that Zalinsky had been in just a day before, even hours before, you have Zalinsky [music] as defiant leader and the country rallying around what he is saying, which is [music] we're not going to simply give in. But it still has left Zalinsky in a really hard position because he's facing dealing with [music] this peace plan, dealing with America whose support he would like to keep and dealing with the Trump administration and wanting to look like they're playing ball [music] like they're trying to negotiate in good faith to get a deal to end this war, which is what the Trump administration really, really wants. But he's got to somehow do that without sacrificing [music] everything.
这就是为什么泽连斯基发现自己进退两难。
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And that is why Zalinsky finds himself between a rock and a hard place. [music]
美国外交的幕后:效仿加沙模式
休息回来后,戴维·桑格将解释这份和平计划的真正来源,以及它引发的外交混乱。
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After the break, David Sanger explains where this [music] peace plan actually came from and the diplomatic scramble it set off. [music]
我们马上回来。
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We'll be right back.
戴维,我们刚刚听金·巴克讲述了这份泄露的和平计划在乌克兰受到如此糟糕的 reception(反响),因为它看起来就像是俄罗斯撰写的。它看起来是如此一边倒。你也是这么认为的吗?
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>> David, we just heard from Kim Barker about how this leaked peace plan was so poorly received in Ukraine because it seemed like it might as well have been written by Russia. It seemed so incredibly lopsided. Is that your take?
嗯,当然我也是这么认为的。它泄露后,我写的第一件事就是它读起来就像是在克里姆林宫(Kremlin: 俄罗斯政府和总统的所在地)起草的。原因在于,事实证明,它的部分内容基本上就是这样,因为他们在开始制定这项计划的几周前就与俄罗斯代表进行了交谈,然后才接触乌克兰人。
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>> Well, certainly that's my take. And after it leaked, the first thing I wrote was it read like it had been drafted in the Kremlin. And the reason for that is parts of it, it turned out, essentially had been because they talked to the Russian representative as they began to develop this weeks before they got to the Ukrainians.
所以,它的初稿是极其亲俄的,基本上给了弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin: 俄罗斯总统)他想要的一切。现在,当你去向政府询问,这是怎么发生的?
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>> And so the first draft of it was incredibly pro-Russian and basically gave Vladimir Putin everything he wanted. Now, when you go and you probe with the administration, how did this happen?
他们的直接回答是,嗯,我们当时正试图复制我们在加沙(Gaza: 中东地区的一个地带)的成功经验。
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>> Their immediate answer is, well, we were trying to replicate our success in Gaza.
哎,
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>> H,
瑞秋,你还记得那件事,因为我们谈论了很多,你和我当时在以色列,那项协议得以实现,没错,人质被释放了,那也是一个20点计划,对吧?他们通过与以色列人坐下来,列出他们的要求和红线等等,然后通过中间人和代表与哈马斯(Hamas: 巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动)做同样的事情,然后回去试图在某些领域强制达成妥协。所以,在总统从以色列回来后不久,他的女婿贾里德·库什纳(Jared Kushner: 美国前总统特朗普的女婿,曾参与中东和平谈判),总统再次召他参与此事,他在加沙谈判中发挥了核心作用,以及他的特使史蒂夫·维托夫(Steve Witoff: 美国政府特使),副总统J.D.万斯(JD Vance: 美国副总统),以及身兼两项重要职务的马尔科·鲁比奥(Marco Rubio: 美国国务卿兼国家安全顾问),国务卿和国家安全顾问,他们都聚在一起,基本上他们向总统提出,嘿,让我们在乌克兰和俄罗斯问题上,完全复制我们在加沙的做法。总统给他们开了绿灯,部分原因是,瑞秋,他没有任何其他选择。所以他们首先让一位俄罗斯代表,一位哈佛商学院毕业的俄罗斯主权财富基金负责人来到迈阿密,与维托夫和贾里德·库什纳会面,基本上阐述了俄罗斯的关切。其中很多内容都在文件中。直到几周后,他们才开始与乌克兰人坐下来交谈。他们从未与欧洲人交谈。然后当然,文件泄露了,一旦泄露,就引发了那场骚乱。欧洲人再次感到被唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump: 美国前总统)总统排斥在外。乌克兰人再次感到被背叛。而俄罗斯人则在庆祝,因为文件的早期版本看起来就像是他们的愿望清单。
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>> now Rachel, you remember that because we talked about it a lot and you and I were in Israel together when that agreement came to fruition and that's right, the hostages were released and that also was a 20point plan, right? and they had put it together by sitting down with the Israelis and getting a list of their demands and their red lines and all that and then through cutouts and representatives basically doing the same thing with Hamas and then going back to try to force compromises in certain areas. And so soon after the president returned from Israel, Jared Kushner, his son-in-law, who the president had called in on this one again and who had played a central role in the Gaza negotiations, and Steve Witoff, his envoy for everything, and JD Vance, the vice president, and Marco Rubio, who's got two important titles here, Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, all met together, and basically They argued to the president, hey, let's try with Ukraine and Russia exactly what we did in Gaza. And the president gave them a green light in part because Rachel, he didn't have any other options. So they started with having a Russian representative, a Harvard Business School educated head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund come to Miami and meet with Witoff and with Jared Kushner and basically laid out Russia's concerns. A lot of that was in the document. And it wasn't until weeks later that they began to sit and talk to the Ukrainians. They never talked to the Europeans. And then of course the document leaked and as soon as it did, it triggered that uproar. The Europeans felt cut out by President Trump yet again. The Ukrainians felt betrayed yet again. And the Russians were celebrating because the early version of the document looked like their wish list.
好的。所以乌克兰参与了谈判,但最终的产品确实是一边倒的,偏向俄罗斯。这是否是乌克兰目前发生的事情和加沙协议之间的另一个相似之处?具体来说,政府最终真的试图强行推行一项严重偏向一方的计划。
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>> Okay. So Ukraine was involved in the negotiation, but the ultimate product here was really one-sided and favored Russia. Is that kind of another similarity here between what's happening with Ukraine and the Gaza deal? Meaning specifically that the administration at the end of the day is really trying to force a plan through that heavily favors one side.
特朗普政府的耐心耗尽与欧洲的担忧
嗯,瑞秋,你说的没错,乌克兰人确实参与了咨询,但他们参与得非常晚。那是在实际文件泄露前大约一周。所以我们上周看到的文件版本并没有反映乌克兰的观点。现在有两种解释。一种是他们没有足够的时间进行反复修改文件。这是政府官员提出的事件版本。另一种看法是,本届政府对乌克兰人已经彻底失去了耐心和同情。
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>> Well, you're certainly right, Rachel, that the Ukrainians came in and were consulted, but they came in very late. It was only about uh a week before the actual document leaked out. And so the version that we all saw last week really didn't reflect the Ukrainian point of view. Now there are two ways to interpret that. One is that they hadn't had enough time to begin to go back and forth and amend the document. That's the version of events that administration officials have put out. The other way to look at it is that this administration fundamentally has run out of patience and sympathy for the Ukrainians here.
总统认为他们迟早要放弃土地,所以他们不如习惯这一点。当然,政府内部也有一些分歧。副总统万斯在整个竞选期间都明确表示,他并不特别关心乌克兰。他只是想确保美国退出,不被卷入另一场“永远的战争”。另一方面,马尔科·鲁比奥作为参议员,投票支持援助乌克兰,并非常强烈地表达了捍卫乌克兰民主的必要性。他是在进入政府后才开始采纳特朗普总统的观点,正如你所期望的政府官员会这样做。你知道,这有点有趣,因为你描述马尔科·鲁比奥对乌克兰的立场,至少最初,更像是一种传统的外交政策方法,与拜登没有太大区别,因为他支持乌克兰。而现在你说他基本上改变了态度,采纳了这种“美国优先”,不惜一切代价摆脱外国纠葛的观点,这正是我们从J.D.万斯和政府中其他人那里看到的。
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>> That the president believes that they're going to have to give up land sooner or later, so they might as well just get accustomed to that. And of course, you've got some split views within the administration. Vice President Vance made clear through the entire campaign that he doesn't particularly care about Ukraine. He just wants to make sure the United States gets out, isn't sucked into another forever war. Marco Rubio, on the other hand, as a senator, voted to aid Ukraine and spoke out quite viferously about the need to defend Ukrainian democracy. It was only after he entered the administration that he began to adopt President Trump's view as you would expect an administration official would. You know, it's sort of interesting though because the way that you described Marco Rubio's stance, at least initially, visav Ukraine was more of a traditional foreign policy approach, like not that much different from Biden in the sense that he was in favor of supporting Ukraine. And now you're saying that he has switched his attitude essentially and adopted this very much more America first, get out of foreign entanglements at any cost that we have seen from JD Vance and other people in the administration.
我不敢肯定这完全正确,瑞秋,因为马尔科·鲁比奥的真实观点似乎在上周这份文件泄露时突然冒了出来,他的第一反应是:“哦,这只是一套初步的谈话要点。”
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I'm not sure that's entirely right, Rachel, because Marco Rubio's true views seem to pop out when this document leaked last week and all of a sudden his first reaction to it was, "Oh, this is just an initial set of talking points."
我想他一度说:“这是一份活的文件。它会改变的,
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I think he said at one point, "It's a living document. It's going to change,
对吧?这只是一个起点。”
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>> right? It's just a starting point."
然而,总统采取了截然不同的立场。特朗普说:“这是一个伟大的计划。这对乌克兰来说是伟大的。泽连斯基必须在感恩节之前同意,否则他将再次发动他自己的小战争。”
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>> And yet the president took a very different position. Trump said, "This is a great plan. It's great for Ukraine. Sinsky has until Thanksgiving Day to agree to it or go off and he's going to fight his his own little wars again."
他暗示,但没有明说,他可能在没有多少美国支持的情况下这样做。所以,对国务卿鲁比奥来说,越来越明显的是,这项谈判不知何故已经脱离了他的掌控。但鲁比奥显然觉得有必要重新掌控局面。突然间,在周六早上,我们听说他登上了飞机,进行了一次没有计划的日内瓦之行,会见了欧洲人和乌克兰人,试图平息这份早期草案泄露所造成的巨大骚乱。
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Hinting without saying that he might be doing that without much American support. So, it was becoming pretty evident to Secretary Rubio that this negotiation had somehow escaped his hands. But Rubio clearly felt the need to seize this back. And suddenly on Saturday morning, we heard that he was getting on his plane on an unscheduled trip to go to Geneva and meet both the Europeans and the Ukrainians to try to put down the incredible uproar that the leak of this early draft had created.
嗯。
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Mhm.
因为欧洲人觉得这份和平协议草案不仅出卖了乌克兰,也出卖了他们自己的安全。你直接从德国总理弗里德里希·梅尔茨(Friedrich Merz: 德国总理)那里听到了这一点,他直言不讳地说:“这不仅仅是关于乌克兰。这是关于欧洲的安全。这是关于北约国家的安全。”
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>> Because the Europeans felt like this draft of a peace accord not only sold Ukraine down the river, it sold their own security down the river. And you heard that directly from the German chancellor Friedrich Merz, who said outright, "This isn't just about Ukraine. This is about the security of Europe. It's about the security of NATO nations."
欧洲人显然认为这比加沙冲突更具 existential(存亡攸关的)意义。
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>> The Europeans clearly see this as much more existential than the conflict in Gaza.
完全正确。
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>> That's absolutely right.
好的。那么接下来会发生什么?
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Okay. So, what happens next?
修订后的计划与未来的不确定性
所以,周日有11个小时的会议。维托夫在场。贾里德·库什纳也在场。
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>> So, on Sunday, there are 11 hours of meetings. Witoff is there. Jared Kushner is there.
据我们所知,气氛非常紧张,特别是与乌克兰人的会谈。
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It's pretty heated from what we hear, particularly with the Ukrainians.
但神奇的是,28点计划变成了20点计划。嗯。
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But magically, the 28point plan turned into a 20point plan. Hm.
突然间,对乌克兰军队不得超过60万人的限制消失了。突然间,北约军队永远不能驻扎在乌克兰的条款也消失了。所以他显然试图将这份文件拉回到中间立场,以挽救和平进程。但在此过程中,他可能已经失去了俄罗斯人。
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Suddenly gone from this was a limit on the Ukrainian military to be no more than 600,000 troops. Suddenly gone from this was that NATO troops could never be based in Ukraine. So he clearly was trying to wrench this document back to the middle in an effort to save the peace process. But along the way he may have lost the Russians.
这就是这里的大问题,对吧,戴维?因为正如你我之前在节目中多次讨论的那样,自战争开始以来,俄罗斯对其想要什么以及它认为的胜利是什么一直非常一致。他们根本没有动摇。所以,一项更有利于乌克兰的新和平计划从日内瓦出炉的想法,几乎看起来像是一个“不启动项”,对吧?所以你几乎不得不怀疑这项计划的意义或好处到底是什么?
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>> And that is the big question here, right David? Because as you and I have discussed on the show multiple times before, Russia has been extremely consistent since the start of the war about what it wants and what it would consider victory. And they haven't wavered from that at all. So the idea that a new peace plan that would be more favorable to Ukraine coming out of Geneva, that almost seems like it would be a non-starter, right? So you almost have to wonder what is the point or the good of this plan at all?
嗯,显然总统认为,通过设定这个感恩节截止日期,他将匆忙通过一些东西,并且会达成一项协议。
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Well, clearly the president believed that by setting up this Thanksgiving deadline that he was going to rush something through and he would have an agreement.
一个愤世嫉俗的人可能会说,总统对速度感兴趣,因为他希望将俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的协议添加到他认为明年获得诺贝尔和平奖的名单中。他经常提出一个绝对正确的观点,那就是我们每周都有成千上万的乌克兰人和俄罗斯人丧生,这是一场巨大的人类悲剧,他只是想达成一些能阻止杀戮的协议。
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And a cynic might say that the president was interested in speed because he wants to add an agreement between Russia and Ukraine to that list for the Nobel Peace Prize that he believes he's been nominated for for next year. and he regularly made the absolutely correct point that it is one of the great human tragedies that we're losing thousands of Ukrainians and Russians every single week here and he just wants to get to something that will stop the killing.
问题是代价是什么,以及他认为普京会忍受多大的痛苦。戴维,这让我想起了我们经常在特朗普总统身上看到的一个特点,那就是他经常喜欢在细节尚未敲定之前就宣扬胜利。这似乎是这里正在上演的一种动态,因为从你所说的一切来看,目标是不择手段地结束乌克兰战争,而不一定是在过程中维护任何特别坚定的原则。这公平吗?
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The question is at what cost and how much pain does he believe Putin will put up with. David, this is reminding me of a characteristic that we often see with President Trump, which is that he often likes to tout a victory with the details to be worked out later. And that seems like it is maybe a dynamic that is playing out here because it feels like from everything you are saying, the goal is to end the war in Ukraine by hook or by crook and not necessarily to uphold any particularly strongly held principles in the process. Is that fair?
完全正确。瑞秋,如果你想想前总统拜登从入侵开始就如何谈论这场战争,他总是说:“我们在这里是为了重建二战后的秩序规则。国家之间不互相入侵,国家之间不互相占领,欧洲的陆战时代,我们在二战结束时就已经结束了。”
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>> That's exactly right. Rachel, if you think about how former President Biden talked about this war from the beginning of the invasion, he always said, "We're here to reestablish the rules of the postw World War II order. That countries don't invade each other's borders, that countries don't take each other over, that this era of, you know, land wars in Europe, we were done with at the end of World War II."
特朗普总统不这样说。他会说:“告诉我需要做什么才能完成它,因为这是乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的权力竞争。俄罗斯拥有核武器。它是一个更大的国家。它将在任何权力竞争中获胜。所以,让我们定义这些边界在哪里,并承认它是一个更强大的国家。”现在,我们必须在这里打开一种可能性,尽管过去几天整个过程笨拙不堪,但特朗普总统实际上可能能够利用这样一个事实:他们在这里有了一些可以谈判的东西,俄罗斯人和乌克兰人终于开始接触,以达成某种类似于停火的协议,如果不是一份完整的和平协议的话。
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President Trump doesn't talk in those terms. [snorts] He says, "Just tell me what it will take to get it done because this is a power competition between Ukraine and Russia. Russia's got nuclear weapons. It's a much larger country. It's going to win any power contest. So, let's just define where those borders are and acknowledge that it's the stronger state." Now, we have to open up the possibility here that clunky as this entire process over the past couple of days has been, that President Trump might actually be able to capitalize on the fact that they have something on the table here, that the Russians and the Ukrainians are finally engaged to get to something that resembles a ceasefire, if not a full peace agreement.
问题是,他能否正确评估俄罗斯何时遭受了足够的痛苦,痛苦是否太大,或者乌克兰人何时在他们因腐败丑闻而处于弱势、因为他们正在失去领土而得出结论,认为最好达成协议。他认为这可能就是时机,也许他是对的。我们都应该希望如此。
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And the question is, can he properly assess when the Russians have suffered enough that the pain is too great or when the Ukrainians have come to the conclusion at a moment of weakness from them because of the corruption scandals, because they're losing territory that they're better to cut a deal. He thinks this may be the moment, and maybe he's [music] right. We all ought to hope so.
但这无疑是一个相当尴尬的外交例子。
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But this certainly has been an example of [music] pretty awkward diplomacy.
也许从现在开始会变得更好。
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Maybe from here it gets better. [music]
戴维,非常感谢你。
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>> David, thank you so much.
谢谢,瑞秋。
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>> Thanks, Rachel. [music]
最新进展与其他新闻
周二晚上,俄罗斯向乌克兰首都发射了致命的导弹和无人机,而克里姆林宫官员则表示,他们将抵制乌克兰就特朗普总统和平计划所谈判的修改。
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On Tuesday evening, Russia launched a deadly barrage of missiles and drones at the Ukrainian capital as Kremlin officials signaled they would resist changes negotiated by Ukraine to President Trump's peace plan.
与此同时,总统表示他放弃了感恩节的截止日期,并且他的特使史蒂夫·维托夫将很快前往莫斯科会见俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京。
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The president, meanwhile, said he backed off the Thanksgiving Day deadline and that his envoy, Steve Witkov, would be traveling soon to Moscow to meet with the Russian President Vladimir Putin.
我们马上回来。以下是您今天还需要知道的其他消息。六名录制视频告诉部队可以拒绝非法命令的民主党国会议员表示,他们正在接受联邦调查局(FBI: Federal Bureau of Investigation)的调查。
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We'll [music] be right back. Here's what else you need to know today. The six Democratic members of Congress who recorded a video telling troops they could refuse illegal orders said they were being investigated by the FBI.
该团体,其中包括退伍军人和中央情报局(CIA: Central Intelligence Agency)的成员,表示联邦调查局已要求对他们进行面谈,尽管目前尚不清楚这些视频可能违反了哪些法律(如果有的话)。在一份声明中,四名众议院议员表示,总统“正在利用联邦调查局作为恐吓和骚扰国会议员的工具”。
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The group, which included veterans of the military and the CIA, said the bureau had requested interviews with them, though it's unclear what, if any, laws [music] the videos could have violated. In a statement, the four House members said that the president was quote using the FBI as a tool to intimidate and harass members of Congress. [music]
而疫苗批评者拉尔夫·亚伯拉罕博士(Dr. Ralph Abraham: 疫苗批评者),他曾称新冠疫苗是危险的,已被任命为疾病控制与预防中心(CDC: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)的二把手。
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And Dr. Ralph Abraham, a [music] critic of vaccines who's called the CO vaccinations dangerous, has been named second in command at the CDC.
作为路易斯安那州的卫生局长,亚伯拉罕曾命令该州停止推广疫苗接种,而他的任命根本没有被疾病控制与预防中心宣布。
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As Louisiana Surgeon General, Abraham had ordered the state to stop promoting vaccinations and his appointment was not [music] announced by the CDC at all.
相反,它出现在一个内部数据库中,开始日期是11月23日。
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Instead, it appeared on an internal database with a start date of November 23rd.
亚伯拉罕博士在某些问题上的观点与卫生部长小罗伯特·F·肯尼迪(Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 美国卫生部长)的观点一致,包括他曾支持服用泰诺(Tylenol: 一种止痛药)与怀孕期间自闭症之间未经证实的联系。
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Dr. Abraham's views on some issues align with those of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., including when he endorsed the unproven link [music] between taking Tylenol during pregnancy and autism.
今天的节目由穆奇·扎迪、亚历克斯·斯特恩和安娜·福利制作。
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Today's episode was produced by Mooch Zadi, Alex Stern, and Anna Foley. It was
由玛丽亚·伯恩编辑,布伦丹·克林肯伯格和佩奇·考瓦特协助。
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edited by Maria Burn [music] with help from Brendan Clinkenberg and Paige Cowat.
包含玛丽安·洛萨诺和丹·鲍威尔的音乐,由克里斯·伍德进行工程制作。
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Contains music by Marian Lozano and Dan Powell and was engineered [music] by Chris Wood.
特别感谢亚历山大·莫利西安和萨沙·达克沃斯。
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Special thanks to Alexandre Molishian and Sasha Duckworth.
《The Daily》节目到此结束。我是雷切尔·艾布拉姆斯。明天见。
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That's it for the daily. I'm Rachel Abrams. See you tomorrow. [music]
📌 文中提及的人物和组织
人物: Rachel Abrams, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin, Jared Kushner, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, Friedrich Merz, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
公司/组织: New York Times, NATO, FBI, CDC, Hamas, Kremlin
产品/模型: Tylenol
媒体/书籍: The Daily