加速气候行动:私营资本、电网现代化与全球合作的挑战 Norges Bank Investment Management 2025-11-05

加速气候行动的紧迫性与挑战

我有很多问题,但我想我只提一个主要问题,因为你们都告诉了我们所需的一切,我们也知道需要什么,并且我们知道我们正朝着正确的方向前进,无论是在欧洲还是在美国(尽管美国进展不大,但特朗普能造成的损害是有限的)。然而,我们需要加快速度。那么,我们应该怎么做才能加速呢?拉加德女士,请您先发言。

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And I have a long list of questions, but I think I'll try to just boil it down to one main question because you've both um told us what is needed and we know what is needed and we know that we are going in the right direction both in Europe not that much in US but it is limited how much damage Trump can do but we need to speed up. So what should we do to speed up? Madame Laglet, first

中央银行家的视角:资本流动与私营部门投资

请允许我从我有限的视角来看待这个问题,即作为一名中央银行家(Central Banker: 负责国家货币政策和金融稳定的机构领导者),以及关注欧盟内部资本流动的视角。资本自由流动是所有欧洲伙伴之间商定的四大自由流通之一。我们必须确保私营部门的资金能够到位。正如阿尔·戈尔非常雄辩地指出,所需投资的85%到90%是由私营部门提供资金的。

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allow me to look at it from my my limited angle which is that of a of a central banker and one concerned about the movement of capital in the in the in the European Union which was one of the four freedom of circulation that was agreed between all the European partners. We have to make sure that private sector money I mean Al was very eloquent in saying what is it 90% of 85% of the necessary investment was financed by the private sector.

私营部门必须对投资于转型中的这些要素感到自信和受到鼓励,而且这些要素并非狭隘定义。整个行业范围都必须从转型中受益。因此,政策制定者必须尽可能地促进和加速这一进程。我认为,锦上添花但并非无关紧要的一点是,确保在需要鼓励或抑制的领域有正确的税收政策。

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Private sector has to feel confident and encouraged in investing in those elements of the transition and they're not just you know narrowmindedly defined. There's a whole range of sectors that have to benefit from the transition. So policy makers have to facilitate that accelerate it as much as possible. I think that as sort of cherry on the cakes which would not be uh irrelevant is making sure that there is the right taxation in the place where you want to encourage or discourage.

因此,我在演讲中提到了对替代能源而非电力能源征税。我想说,鼓励股权投资(Equity Investment: 购买公司股份以获得所有权和潜在回报的投资)而非债务(Debt: 借贷资金并承诺偿还本金和利息)投资,对于绿色部门所需的稳定和长期投资也是必要的。

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So I referred in my speech to you know taxing alternative sources rather than electricity sources. I would say that encouraging equity investment rather than debt would also be necessary in order to you know have stable and longerterm investment which is needed in in the green uh sector.

所以,从我的角度来看,我认为加速、简化私营资本进入市场的途径,并由财政方面鼓励绿色投资,将是首要任务,同时也要考虑资金的投资方向。我将再次强调电网(Electricity Grid: 输送和分配电力的系统),电网,电网,以解决可以降低的成本问题。

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So on in from my corner I think accelerating speeding up simplifying access to from private capital to a market where green investment are encouraged by uh the fiscal side would be would be first priority together with you know in terms of where the money is invested. I would repeat grids, grids, grids in order to address the cost that can be reduced.

电网现代化与可再生能源的经济优势

我完全赞同拉加德总裁关于优先改善电网的评论。这几乎适用于每个国家。几年前,当新千年到来时,美国国家工程院(National Academy of Engineering: 美国工程师的荣誉性组织,就工程和技术问题向联邦政府提供咨询)进行了一项调查,以确定20世纪最重要的工程成就。答案是美国的电力电网。但仅仅几年后,很明显,这句话的关键部分是“在20世纪”,因为它不再是单向传输。

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Let me uh endorse uh uh President Lagard's comment about the priority that should be assigned to improving the grids. Um this is true in almost every country. When the millennium turned uh a few years ago, the National Academy of Engineering in the United States conducted a survey to identify the number one engineering achievement of the 20th century. And the answer was America's electricity grid. But only a few years later, it became apparent that the key part of that phrase was in the 20th century

现在,它是一个双向和多向的传输系统,电网存储广泛分布在整个电网中,需要大量的软件和创新。我认为,尽管有特朗普,这在美国仍在进行。目前,美国可再生能源(Renewable Energy: 来自自然过程并能不断补充的能源,如太阳能、风能)投资正在蓬勃发展。其中一部分是由年底某些激励措施即将到期所推动的,但主要还是由这些能源的经济优势所驱动。

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because it's no longer a one-way transmission. It is a a two-way and multi-way transition with grid storage uh widely distributed throughout the grid requires a lot of software. It requires a lot of innovation. I think this is going on in in the United States in spite of Trump. There's a boom in renewable energy investment right now in the United States. Some of it is driven by the uh prospective uh retirement of certain incentives at the end of the year, but it's mainly driven by the economic superiority of these sources.

我能否提醒大家,当唐纳德·特朗普首次担任总统四年期间,发生了什么?太阳能翻了一番,电动汽车销量翻了一番,清洁能源投资翻了两番,煤炭使用量下降了20%以上。为什么?因为经济现实正在推动这场能源转型。

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And may I remind you that when Donald Trump was president for four years, the first time around, what happened during those four years? Um, solar energy doubled, electric car sales doubled, clean energy investment tripled, coal use declined by more than 20%. Why? Because the economic realities are favoring this energy transition.

如果我能给你们一个视觉上的比喻来描述世界和美国正在发生的事情,那就是一个巨大的轮子正朝着正确的方向转动,而其中一些小轮子正朝着相反的方向转动。但即使是这些小轮子,也正在不可避免地朝着我们前进的方向移动。我们行动得不够快,我们必须加速。我们该怎么做?

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If I could give you a visual metaphor that to me describes what's going on in the world and in the US, there's a big wheel turning in the right direction and little wheels within it turning in the opposite direction. But even those little wheels are being moved inexraably toward where we're going. We're not moving fast enough. We have to accelerate. How do we do it?

民主危机与信息生态系统转型

为了解决气候危机,我们必须关注民主危机。克里斯蒂娜提到,十分之九的欧洲人赞成增加对可再生能源的投资。我认为美国这个比例没有那么高,但也接近了。然而,化石燃料行业的政治权力和传统政治经济网络被非常巧妙地用来减缓这一转型。

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In order to solve the climate crisis, we have to pay attention to the democracy crisis. Christine mentioned that nine out of 10 Europeans are in favor of ramping up investments in renewable energy. I don't think the percentage is quite that high in the US, but it's close to that in the US. uh and yet the political power and the legacy political and economic networks of the fossil fuel industry have been used very skillfully to slow this transition down.

我提到了疫情、中国加入世贸组织、乌克兰战争等带来的巨大变化。还有另一个我们一直在努力应对的转型,那就是我们做出集体决策的信息生态系统(Information Ecosystem: 信息产生、传播和消费的整体环境)的根本性转变。挪威和美国在印刷机时代建立了我们的制度,我们经历了对极权主义友好的广播时代,然后是互联网,现在是社交媒体,并迅速叠加了人工智能。

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Uh and at the I mentioned the big changes with the pandemic and and and with the China WTO the invasion of Ukraine and all of that. There's another transition that's we've been wrestling with and that is a radical transition in the information ecosystem within which we make collective decisions. Norway and the United States formed our institutions during the era of the printing press and we cycled through broadcasting which is totalitarianfriendly to the internet and now social media with an overlay of AI coming rapidly

结果是,代议制民主的规范和实践被颠覆了,它们没有像应有的那样良好运作。我确实相信变革正在到来,我相信在明年下个月的选举中,我们几乎肯定会看到美国国会方向的巨大变化。

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and as a result the the norms and practices of representative democracy have been turned upside down and they're not working as well as they should. I do believe that change is coming and I believe in the elections one year from next month we will see almost certainly we will see a dramatic change in the direction of the Congress in the United States.

是的,希望如此。我敢说,拉加德女士……

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Yes, let's hope so. I dare to say. Uh Madame Lagards, uh

您允许我在这里提一个建议吗?

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did you allow me to make a suggestion here?

当然。

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Absolutely.

呼吁新一代:从“不便的真相”到“不便的舒适区”

因为我不知道在座的各位有多少人看过一部名为《不便的真相》(The Inconvenient Truth: 一部关于全球变暖的纪录片,由阿尔·戈尔主讲)的电影。请举手。

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Because I I don't know how many of you in this room have seen a film called The Inconvenient Truth. raise hands.

是的。

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Yeah.

好的。

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Okay.

重点已明确。在电影确实非常有影响力的时代,坐在我旁边的那个人是变革的推动者。我不知道对你来说是什么,但对我来说,那是一次对即将发生的事情的深刻理解。

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Point made. At times when films were actually very powerful, one person sitting next to me was the agent for change. And I don't know what it was for you. For me, it was a dramatic understanding of what was going to happen.

我想建议,与坐在我旁边的同一个人一起,我们应该鼓励他,也许资助他——这里有一些钱——在未来的媒体上制作一些可以被称为,我不知道,我们所处的“不便的舒适区”之类的东西,以鼓励尽可能多的年轻人,因为我们房间里的所有人年龄都超过了20多岁,但要鼓励他们认识到需要什么,需要多少资金,以及他们应该如何为此做准备。

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And I would suggest that with that same person sitting next to me, we should encourage him and maybe fund him. There's a bit of money around here to produce on the media of the future. something that could be called, I don't know, the inconvenient comfort zone that we are in and or something like that in order to encourage as many young people because we're all a little bit over the edge of the 20s uh in this room, but encourage them to appreciate what is needed, how much money will be required, and how they should prepare for that.

你不同意吗?是的。

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Wouldn't you agree? Yes. Yeah.

嗯,正如我常说的,如果不是我,我们现在可能就有大麻烦了。

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Well, as I often say, if it hadn't been for me, we might have a big problem right now.

是的。

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Yes.

但我还没完。

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But I'm not done yet.

你还没完。但我们应该回到欧洲国家吗?不,不,请。因为气候倡议正在与许多其他重要任务竞争。例如,我们必须增加国防预算,我们还有许多其他挑战。我们应该如何尝试将气候倡议与我们必须解决的所有其他任务结合起来?

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You're not done yet. But should we move back to to the European country? No. No. Please. Uh and uh because um climate initiatives are competing with many other uh important tasks. For instance, we have to increase our defense budget. we have a lot of other challenges. Uh how should we how should we try to to combine climate initiatives with all the other tasks that we have to address?

气候变化与国防:需要共同承诺的领域

我希望我在发言中已经清楚地表明,我们必须共同行动,对我来说,“共同”指的是欧洲和我们周围的欧洲朋友。我认为,当存在像气候变化这样明显、迫在眉睫且持续时间长的威胁时,它确实需要一种联合方法。

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I hope it was clear in my in my remarks that we have to act together and the togetherness for me is Europe and the European friends around us. And I think that when there is a threat as obvious, as imminent, and as longasting as climate change, it really warrants a joint approach.

因此,我们知道,一些国家的财政空间有限。其他国家拥有更大的资产负债表,并且正在将资产负债表纳入考量。但这确实是那些领域之一,在我看来,其中两三个是毋庸置疑的。国防是一个,气候变化是另一个,它们需要共同承诺、共同倡议、共同资助,以应对问题的紧迫性。

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So fiscal space is limited for some countries as we know. Other countries have a larger balance sheets and are are putting the balance sheet uh in the equation. But it's really one of those areas, the two or three that I think my perspective are unquestionable. Defense is one, climate change is the other one that warrant joint commitment, joint initiative, joint funding in order to respond to the urgency of the matter.

正如阿尔·戈尔早些时候所说,85%来自私营部门,15%是政策制定者可以发挥作用的激励或环境。所以我们不是在谈论由政府支持全部的融资需求,因为第一,他们做不到。第二,私营部门也必须发挥其作用,并将为项目带来所需的纪律和审查。

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And as Al Gore was saying earlier on, 85% is private sector, 15% was the incentive or the environment within which policy makers could make a difference. So we're not talking about the entire financing needs being supported by governments because number one, they cannot do it. Number two, private sector must play its part as well and will bring a level of discipline and scrutiny to the projects which is which are which are needed.

所以,这将是我的回答。这是一项联合努力,主要来自私营部门,公共部门占较小比例,但这是一项完全有理由且必要的联合努力。

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So that would be my response to you. It's a joint effort massively from the private sector in a smaller proportion by the public sector but one where joint effort is completely warranted and necessary.

供应链依赖与化石燃料补贴的困境

但是我们将严重依赖从中国进口,而我们正努力减少对俄罗斯的依赖。那么,我们是否只是将对俄罗斯的依赖替换为对中国的依赖呢?

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But we will be dependent on a lot of import from China and we try to be more independent of Russia. So are we just swapping the the dependence of Russia with dependence on China?

看,如果说我们在过去几年中学到了一点教训,那就是要更加注重安全、可持续性和可负担性。所有这些都适用于供应链和零部件的采购。目前很明显,大约95%的太阳能发电的各种组件,包括一些所需的稀土,都在中国手中。但我们必须对此做出回应,欧盟委员会已经制定了一项战略,正是为了解决稀土问题,以达到一定的独立目标。这需要一段时间,就像国防领域一样。但我们必须走这条路,并完成这段旅程。

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Look, if there is one lesson that we learned in the last few years is to be more s more security, sustainability, affordability. All of that applies as well to the uh the supply chain and the sourcing of the components. It's obvious at the moment that about 95% of the solar uh generation u various components including rare earth by the way that are needed for for some of that are in the hands of China. But we have to respond to that and there is a strategy that has been developed by the European Commission which addresses precisely the issue of rare earth in order to reach certain targets of independence. It's going to take a while uh just as it will in relation to defense. But we we have to to take that path and to and to travel that journey.

让我提出两种可供考虑的途径。克里斯蒂娜,你曾出色地领导国际货币基金组织(IMF: International Monetary Fund,国际货币基金组织,旨在促进全球货币合作、金融稳定、国际贸易和可持续经济增长),你当时就开始了这项研究,而克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃(Cristalina Georgieva: 国际货币基金组织现任总裁)最近发布了这项研究的新版本。如果各国政府取消对化石燃料的补贴会发生什么?许多人惊讶地深入研究现实,并意识到世界各地的纳税人被迫补贴人类未来的毁灭。这简直是疯了。

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Let me offer two pathways to consider. Uh you ran the IMF brilliantly Christine uh and you study started then and Cristina Georgva has recently released a new version of the study. What would happen if governments eliminated the subsidies for fossil fuels? Many people are surprised to dig down into the realities and realize that taxpayers around the world are forced to subsidize the destruction of humanity's future. It's literally insane.

国际货币基金组织的研究表明,如果我们取消对化石燃料的补贴,世界各国政府将有额外的4.4万亿美元可供支出。这恰好与国际能源署(IEA: International Energy Agency,国际能源署,旨在促进能源安全和可持续发展)所说的为能源转型提供资金所需的金额大致相同。所以当人们问钱从哪里来时?嗯,如果我们停止花费它来补贴我们未来的毁灭,而是将其用于好的结果,那么钱的问题就解决了。

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The IMF study shows that if we eliminated subsidies for fossil fuel, governments around the world would have an extra $4.4 trillion dollar to spend. that happens to be just about exactly the amount that the IEA says is needed to finance the energy transition. So when people say where's the money going to come from? Well, if we stopped spending it subsidizing the destruction of our future and used it for good results instead, we'd be done where the money I is concerned.

如果可以的话,第二个前进的途径。当然,卢拉总统下个月将主持COP 30(Conference of the Parties: 联合国气候变化框架公约缔约方大会的第30届会议),他最近提出了一个关于支持碳边境调节机制(Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms, CBAMs: 一种对进口产品征收碳排放费用的机制,旨在防止碳泄漏和促进全球减排)的国家联盟的提议。

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a second pathway forward if I could. President Lula, who is hosting, of course, COP 30 next month, uh has recently ventured this proposal for a an alliance of countries that support the carbon border adjustment mechanisms, the C-bams, if

如果中国和欧盟,包括挪威、新加坡、澳大利亚,都结合起来进行边境调节以反映碳含量,那么这甚至可能与特朗普总统对关税的偏好相匹配,这样我们最终可以通过这种间接方式为碳定价。

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China and the European Union, including Norway, Singapore, Australia, all combined with a border adjustment to reflect the carbon content, then that might even match uh President Trump's fondness for tariffs uh such as it is uh and we could finally in in that indirect way put a price on carbon.

面对多元危机:选择艰难的正确之路

非常感谢。他们告诉我我们必须停止了。我可以看到观众现在比我们今天早上见面时更加乐观,这是因为你们。你们是非常有经验的人,你们已经为此工作了几十年,我们知道要形成如此巨大的转变并不容易,但我们必须继续。

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Thank you so much. They tell me we have to stop. I can see that the audience is more optimistic now than when we met this morning and that is because of you. You are very experienced people. you have been working on this for decades and uh we knew it wouldn't be easy to uh you know form that such a big transformation but we just have to carry on carry on.

我能再评论一句吗?我知道在挪威你们比我们在美国更守时。我知道你们收到了信号。

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Can I make one more comment? I I know that you're in Norway you're much more punctual than we are in the United States. I know you're getting the signal. Yeah,

我年轻时有一位老师经常说,我们一生中会反复面临同样的选择。这是一个在“艰难的正确”和“简单的错误”之间的选择。我们现在已经达到了人类社会发展的一个点,我们面临着“艰难的正确”和“简单的错误”之间的选择。人们说我们面临着多元危机(Poly-crisis: 指同时发生并相互关联的多重全球性危机),我们有多元解决方案(Poly-solution: 针对多重危机提出的综合性解决方案)。

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I had a I had a teacher when I was young who said frequently that we all face the same choice in life over and over again. And it's a choice between the hard right and the easy wrong. We have now reached a point in the evolution of human society where we face that choice between the hard right and the easy wrong. People say we face a poly crisis. We have a poly solution.

我们需要做出艰难而正确的决定,大幅加速摆脱化石燃料的转型,并建立我们能够掌控自己命运的信心。我希望年轻人对未来抱有和我年轻时一样的希望。当我们知道我们能做到时,我们怎能不给予他们这种希望呢?我们有能力做到这一点。挪威一直在正确地做出决定,引领潮流。我们可以选择艰难的正确之路,并拯救我们的未来。非常感谢。

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We need to make the hard right decision to vastly accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and build confidence that we can control our own destiny. I want young people to have the same hopefulness in looking at the future that I had when I was young. How dare we not give that to them when we know that we can. We have the ability to do it. Norway has been leading the way in the right making the right decisions. We can choose the hard right and save our future and thank you so much.

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